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000
FXUS66 KOTX 211143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds can be expected today with occasional sprinkles
through the day. Although we will see plenty of cloud cover
today, temperatures will be mild for mid April. A cool and showery
unsettled weather pattern returns Monday night and will linger
through much of the work week before showing signs of exiting for
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The flow pattern will become increasingly more southerly
today, which will draw up more moist and mild air into the region.
This will be in response to an approaching trough of lower
pressure in the eastern Pacific. The upper level trough will
continue to dig with time today as a moderately strong jet streak
of 160 kts pushes down on the backside of the trough. This will
orient the jet on the westerly side of the trough more
meridionally this afternoon. With the jet oriented more north-
south instead of the west-east, the cold front will likely take a
slower progression across the region. The cold front is already
beginning to shift west of 130W, but is not expected to push east
of the Cascades until tonight.

We will see increasing mid level moisture today. This will result
in thickening cloud cover with an increasing chance for some light
showers mainly across the Cascades and in the northern mtns. There
is enough drier air near the surface across the basin that mainly
virga showers or some sprinkles is expected today ahead of the
front. Although there will be plenty of cloud cover, temps are
expected to warm up nicely over the eastern half of the forecast
area compared to yesterday and will feel quite mild.

Tonight into Tuesday: Precip chances will increase markedly from
west to east overnight into Tuesday as the front pushes through.
Good upper level dynamics and forcing along the front will result
in rain showers over most areas. Rain showers will push as far
east as the ID border tonight into early Tuesday morning. Then
pick up in intensity across the eastern third of the WA and into
the ID Panhandle through Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
Pressure gradients will tighten behind the front with winds
increasing from the west through the afternoon. Expect sustained
winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Rain showers and
cloud cover on Tuesday will hold down our temperatures through the
afternoon hours. Temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees
cooler compared to Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s for
most valley locations. /SVH

Tue Nt through Sat: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with
Idaho even through Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. Beginning Wed Nt, a more
widespread stratiform pcpn event will keep high chances of pcpn
in the fcst for most zones... especially Thurs as deep isentropic
ascent over an advancing warm front moves NE across the region.
Due to the shearing/splitting of the accompanying upper trough in
response to a jet speed max digging toward northern California
Thurs Nt, the cold front will stall directly across Ern Wa and N
Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary won`t begin to move out of
the area until Sat, leading to a very cool and showery Fri and
Sat. There is also a significant vort max that moves north into
Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged pcpn threat. bz

Sunday and Monday: An exiting trough will signal somewhat of a
drying trend for the early week. However, there is some indication
that yet another moist weather system will affect the region soon
after. While precipitation were nudged downward, did not want to
bring them too far down given this possibility. Temperatures on
Sunday will be slightly below normal, while warming toward normal
on Monday. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The region will come under an increasingly moist
southerly flow pattern out ahead of a cold front pushing into
western WA. The main aviation impact for this afternoon into this
evening will be thickening mid to high level cloud cover. Any
precip that falls will be very light. The cold front in western WA
will begin to move into the Cascades this evening. This will
increase chances for rain showers at KEAT with MVFR cigs possible
after 06Z. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  51  35  50  36 /  10  40  80  30  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  51  34  49  35 /  10  30  90  50  60  20
Pullman        68  45  49  34  48  37 /  10  20  90  40  50  20
Lewiston       74  50  55  39  54  41 /   0  20  80  30  40  20
Colville       65  40  54  33  56  35 /  20  50  90  40  50  10
Sandpoint      66  42  52  33  49  36 /  20  20  90  80  70  30
Kellogg        66  42  51  33  48  36 /  10  10 100  80  70  30
Moses Lake     69  47  57  37  59  39 /  10  60  60  20  20  20
Wenatchee      67  48  55  41  57  42 /  10  70  60  10  20  20
Omak           66  43  54  34  57  36 /  20  60  70  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 211000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds can be expected today with occasional sprinkles
through the day. Although we will see plenty of cloud cover
today, temperatures will be mild for mid April. A cool and showery
unsettled weather pattern returns Monday night and will linger
through much of the work week before showing signs of exiting for
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The flow pattern will become increasingly more southerly
today, which will draw up more moist and mild air into the region.
This will be in response to an approaching trough of lower
pressure in the eastern Pacific. The upper level trough will
continue to dig with time today as a moderately strong jet streak
of 160 kts pushes down on the backside of the trough. This will
orient the jet on the westerly side of the trough more
meridionally this afternoon. With the jet oriented more north-
south instead of the west-east, the cold front will likely take a
slower progression across the region. The cold front is already
beginning to shift west of 130W, but is not expected to push east
of the Cascades until tonight.

We will see increasing mid level moisture today. This will result
in thickening cloud cover with an increasing chance for some light
showers mainly across the Cascades and in the northern mtns. There
is enough drier air near the surface across the basin that mainly
virga showers or some sprinkles is expected today ahead of the
front. Although there will be plenty of cloud cover, temps are
expected to warm up nicely over the eastern half of the forecast
area compared to yesterday and will feel quite mild.

Tonight into Tuesday: Precip chances will increase markedly from
west to east overnight into Tuesday as the front pushes through.
Good upper level dynamics and forcing along the front will result
in rain showers over most areas. Rain showers will push as far
east as the ID border tonight into early Tuesday morning. Then
pick up in intensity across the eastern third of the WA and into
the ID Panhandle through Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
Pressure gradients will tighten behind the front with winds
increasing from the west through the afternoon. Expect sustained
winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Rain showers and
cloud cover on Tuesday will hold down our temperatures through the
afternoon hours. Temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees
cooler compared to Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s for
most valley locations. /SVH

Tue Nt through Sat: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with
Idaho even through Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. Beginning Wed Nt, a more
widespread stratiform pcpn event will keep high chances of pcpn
in the fcst for most zones... especially Thurs as deep isentropic
ascent over an advancing warm front moves NE across the region.
Due to the shearing/splitting of the accompanying upper trough in
response to a jet speed max digging toward northern California
Thurs Nt, the cold front will stall directly across Ern Wa and N
Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary won`t begin to move out of
the area until Sat, leading to a very cool and showery Fri and
Sat. There is also a significant vort max that moves north into
Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged pcpn threat. bz

Sunday and Monday: An exiting trough will signal somewhat of a
drying trend for the early week. However, there is some indication
that yet another moist weather system will affect the region soon
after. While precipitation were nudged downward, did not want to
bring them too far down given this possibility. Temperatures on
Sunday will be slightly below normal, while warming toward normal
on Monday. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Weak warm front continues to move through the aviation
area this evening, spreading some mid to high level cloud cover
across the region from west to east as it does so. Clouds will
thicken and lower aft 12z Monday and some showers may occur near
the Cascades and the Columbia Basin as early as 18Z...spreading
north as east through Monday but remain VFR through 06Z Tuesday.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  51  35  50  36 /  10  40  80  30  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  51  34  49  35 /  10  30  90  50  60  20
Pullman        68  45  49  34  48  37 /  10  20  90  40  50  20
Lewiston       74  50  55  39  54  41 /   0  20  80  30  40  20
Colville       65  40  54  33  56  35 /  20  50  90  40  50  10
Sandpoint      66  42  52  33  49  36 /  20  20  90  80  70  30
Kellogg        66  42  51  33  48  36 /  10  10 100  80  70  30
Moses Lake     69  47  57  37  59  39 /  10  60  60  20  20  20
Wenatchee      67  48  55  41  57  42 /  10  70  60  10  20  20
Omak           66  43  54  34  57  36 /  20  60  70  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 210525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds expected tonight into Monday morning.
A dry and warm Monday is anticipated with a cool and unsettled
weather pattern returning Monday night and will linger through
much of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some changes made with the grids, mainly sky and min temperature
grids for tonght, but the changes were not sigificant enough to
merit a zone forecast update. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Weak warm front continues to move through the aviation
area this evening, spreading some mid to high level cloud cover
across the region from west to east as it does so. Clouds will
thicken and lower aft 12z Monday and some showers may occur near
the Cascades and the Columbia Basin as early as 18Z...spreading
north as east through Monday but remain VFR through 06Z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  65  43  52  35  50 /   0   0  50  80  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  67  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  50  80  50  60
Pullman        39  67  43  52  34  48 /   0   0  60  80  40  50
Lewiston       44  73  48  58  39  54 /   0   0  50  70  30  40
Colville       35  68  40  54  33  56 /   0  10  70  80  40  50
Sandpoint      34  65  41  50  33  49 /   0   0  40  90  80  70
Kellogg        36  68  42  53  33  48 /   0   0  40  90  80  70
Moses Lake     44  69  46  57  37  59 /   0  10  70  40  20  30
Wenatchee      45  65  48  54  41  57 /   0  20  60  30  10  20
Omak           40  65  43  55  34  57 /   0  20  60  40  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 202327
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds expected tonight into Monday morning.
A dry and warm Monday is anticipated with a cool and unsettled
weather pattern returning Monday night and will linger through
much of the work week.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: South to southeasterly flow will continue through the
night as warmer air moves in from the south as the upper level
ridge axis slips east. This coupled with thickening high clouds
over the area will keep area temperatures at or slightly above
average for this time of the year.

Monday: The upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will
approach the west coast. The thick high clouds will lower through
the day. Southeasterly winds will provide some upslope flow into
the Cascades. Chance of precipitation will increase through the
day along the Cascades and slowly move east into the Waterville
Plateau and the Okanogan Valley and Highlands in the afternoon.
Even though it will be mostly cloudy, the southeasterly gradient
will keep temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. The exception to these warmer temperatures will
be along the cascades where their temperatures will be right
around average for this time of the year. /Nisbet

Monday night through Wednesday...This period will be the beginning
of what promises to be a rather wet and cool weather
period...typical of what the spring season usually delivers to the
PacNW. The initial threat of precipitation will arrive Monday
night as the longwave 500 mb trough which currently resides off
the coast shifts inland. Looks like all locations stand to see
some precipitation as moist warm front moves in from the southwest
Monday night quickly followed by a cold front. The warm front will
likely entrain some moisture from a moderate atmospheric river so
the chances for precipitation look quite good for most locations
given strong isentropic ascent. The threat of widespread
precipitation will likely continue through early Tuesday morning
after which drier air will begin to invade from the southwest. By
this point model guidance is consistent on bringing the offshore
trough in from the southwest yielding a slight negative
orientation. This will likely deliver more showers to the
region...with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms. The greatest
threat of thunderstorms will occur over NE and NC Washington and
extend east into most of the Idaho Panhandle. Typically negative
tilted trough passages during a springtime afternoon can generate
some widespread convection/thunderstorms...however the big
question is how much daytime heating will develop behind the
passage of the warm front. In this case the window for heating
looks too brief to get too excited about thunder chances however
if the model trends change this though may need to be revisited.

The rain chances will likely settle down Tuesday evening as drier
and cooler air moves in behind the negatively tilted upper level
trough. But this drier air and cooling will set the stage for
another weather problem come Wednesday morning...a chance of
snow...even in the valleys. This threat will arrive as the base of
the upper level trough shifts through the NE corner of Washington
and the north tip of the Panhandle on Wednesday morning. Depending
on how much clearing we see Tuesday night will have a bearing on
the potential for snow. Wet bulb temperatures off the models are
consistently right at or slightly below freezing by sunrise
Wednesday over most locations north of Highway 2 and I90. However
surface temperatures at the onset of the event are expected to be
in the lower to middle 30s...so not sure how much snow can
accumulate...especially given the relatively warm soil and road
temperatures. Nonetheless the chances of snow look good for
locations such as Sandpoint...Colville...Kelloog...Bonners Ferry
and Republic. The late April heating will erase any valley snow
threat as we transition to late morning and afternoon hours.
Precipitation amounts from this second threat will be relatively
light. fx

Wednesday night through Sunday...There will be a very brief break
in the unsettled weather Wednesday night as a ridge quickly
transits the area. By Thursday the showery regime begins and will
continue into the weekend as an upper level low meanders off the
Washington coast for a couple days then moves inland as an open
wave for the weekend. This system has a tap into a decent fetch of
Pacific moisture. With ample upper level support and an extended
period of south to southwest flow, the entire forecast area will
have a good chance of showers each day. PoPs will remain well
above climo with temperatures close to seasonal normals. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak warm front continues to move through the aviation
area this afternoon and evening and it is spreading some mid to
high level cloud cover across the region from west to east as it
does so. Clouds will thicken and lower aft 12z Monday and some
showers may occur near the Cascades and the Columbia Basin as
early as 18Z...spreading north as east through Monday but remain
VFR through 00Z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  65  43  52  35  50 /   0   0  50  80  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  67  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  50  80  50  60
Pullman        39  67  43  52  34  48 /   0   0  60  80  40  50
Lewiston       44  73  48  58  39  54 /   0   0  50  70  30  40
Colville       35  68  40  54  33  56 /   0  10  70  80  40  50
Sandpoint      34  65  41  50  33  49 /   0   0  40  90  80  70
Kellogg        36  68  42  53  33  48 /   0   0  40  90  80  70
Moses Lake     44  69  46  57  37  59 /   0  10  70  40  20  30
Wenatchee      45  65  48  54  41  57 /   0  20  60  30  10  20
Omak           40  65  43  55  34  57 /   0  20  60  40  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 202154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds expected tonight into Monday morning.
A dry and warm Monday is anticipated with a cool and unsettled
weather pattern returning Monday night and will linger through
much of the work week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: South to southeasterly flow will continue through the
night as warmer air moves in from the south as the upper level
ridge axis slips east. This coupled with thickening high clouds
over the area will keep area temperatures at or slightly above
average for this time of the year.

Monday: The upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will
approach the west coast. The thick high clouds will lower through
the day. Southeasterly winds will provide some upslope flow into
the Cascades. Chance of precipitation will increase through the
day along the Cascades and slowly move east into the Waterville
Plateau and the Okanogan Valley and Highlands in the afternoon.
Even though it will be mostly cloudy, the southeasterly gradient
will keep temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. The exception to these warmer temperatures will
be along the cascades where their temperatures will be right
around average for this time of the year. /Nisbet

Monday night through Wednesday...This period will be the beginning
of what promises to be a rather wet and cool weather
period...typical of what the spring season usually delivers to the
PacNW. The initial threat of precipitation will arrive Monday
night as the longwave 500 mb trough which currently resides off
the coast shifts inland. Looks like all locations stand to see
some precipitation as moist warm front moves in from the southwest
Monday night quickly followed by a cold front. The warm front will
likely entrain some moisture from a moderate atmospheric river so
the chances for precipitation look quite good for most locations
given strong isentropic ascent. The threat of widespread
precipitation will likely continue through early Tuesday morning
after which drier air will begin to invade from the southwest. By
this point model guidance is consistent on bringing the offshore
trough in from the southwest yielding a slight negative
orientation. This will likely deliver more showers to the
region...with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms. The greatest
threat of thunderstorms will occur over NE and NC Washington and
extend east into most of the Idaho Panhandle. Typically negative
tilted trough passages during a springtime afternoon can generate
some widespread convection/thunderstorms...however the big
question is how much daytime heating will develop behind the
passage of the warm front. In this case the window for heating
looks too brief to get too excited about thunder chances however
if the model trends change this though may need to be revisited.

The rain chances will likely settle down Tuesday evening as drier
and cooler air moves in behind the negatively tilted upper level
trough. But this drier air and cooling will set the stage for
another weather problem come Wednesday morning...a chance of
snow...even in the valleys. This threat will arrive as the base of
the upper level trough shifts through the NE corner of Washington
and the north tip of the Panhandle on Wednesday morning. Depending
on how much clearing we see Tuesday night will have a bearing on
the potential for snow. Wet bulb temperatures off the models are
consistently right at or slightly below freezing by sunrise
Wednesday over most locations north of Highway 2 and I90. However
surface temperatures at the onset of the event are expected to be
in the lower to middle 30s...so not sure how much snow can
accumulate...especially given the relatively warm soil and road
temperatures. Nonetheless the chances of snow look good for
locations such as Sandpoint...Colville...Kelloog...Bonners Ferry
and Republic. The late April heating will erase any valley snow
threat as we transition to late morning and afternoon hours.
Precipitation amounts from this second threat will be relatively
light. fx

Wednesday night through Sunday...There will be a very brief break
in the unsettled weather Wednesday night as a ridge quickly
transits the area. By Thursday the showery regime begins and will
continue into the weekend as an upper level low meanders off the
Washington coast for a couple days then moves inland as an open
wave for the weekend. This system has a tap into a decent fetch of
Pacific moisture. With ample upper level support and an extended
period of south to southwest flow, the entire forecast area will
have a good chance of showers each day. PoPs will remain well
above climo with temperatures close to seasonal normals. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak warm front will move through this afternoon and evening
and spread some mid to high level cloud cover across the region
from west to east. Clouds will thicken and lower aft 12z Monday
but remain VFR through 18Z Monday.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  65  43  52  35  50 /   0   0  50  80  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  67  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  50  80  50  60
Pullman        39  67  43  52  34  48 /   0   0  60  80  40  50
Lewiston       44  73  48  58  39  54 /   0   0  50  70  30  40
Colville       35  68  40  54  33  56 /   0  10  70  80  40  50
Sandpoint      34  65  41  50  33  49 /   0   0  40  90  80  70
Kellogg        36  68  42  53  33  48 /   0   0  40  90  80  70
Moses Lake     44  69  46  57  37  59 /   0  10  70  40  20  30
Wenatchee      45  65  48  54  41  57 /   0  20  60  30  10  20
Omak           40  65  43  55  34  57 /   0  20  60  40  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 201743
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Easter Sunday should be mild and dry. After a warm and dry
Monday, a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday
and linger through much of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION... Easter Sunday: The Inland Northwest will be
between weather systems from Easter Sunday into Monday. The cold
front from yesterday will be well east of the region today with
shortwave ridging of higher pressure building in. This will
promote more stable mid level lapse rates with clearing skies
behind the front. However, we will see some mid to high level
cloud cover enter the region off of the Pacific. Current satellite
imagery at 2:00 AM shows increasing clouds moving toward western
WA along a weak warm front boundary. These clouds will ride up
over the ridge and generally impact the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area through this afternoon into this evening. The good
news is that precip is not expected along this warm front, so
Easter festivities are expected to see dry conditions with
temperatures right around normal.

Tonight through Monday: The next weather system is set to begin
to impact the region on Monday. All model guidance shows
increasing moisture steaming up out ahead of the cold front at
this time. This front can be located on satellite imagery between
140-150W and 35-45N with darkening on water vapor imagery
indicating the back edge of this front. A 150 +kt jet steak on the
back side of the upper level trough will act to dig this energy,
which will effectively orientate the front more meridionally with
time. This will slow down the front and hang it up just off the
western coastline. Moisture will increase over the region in an
increasingly more southerly and mild flow pattern. This moisture
will result in increasing cloud cover during the day, but any
precip will likely hold off closer to the Cascade Mtns until
better forcing with the front moves further east after this
period. 850 temperatures will increase substantially across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Warmer temperatures aloft will
result in a general warming trend into Monday, but we will also
see quite a bit of cloud cover that will temper this warm up a
bit. /SVH

Mon Nt through Wed Nt: The fcst challenges remain the same.
Namely...pcpn amnts and temps well below normal for Tues through
Wed (leading to low snow levels and Spring snow accumulations)
for NE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle, as well as gusty winds and
thunder chances Tues. Though model guidance concerning the above-
mentioned challenges has not dramatically changed, our confidence
level remains low concerning the specifics...especially with snow
levels and accumulations Tues Nt. The initial band of pcpn Tues
morning may be enhanced by elevated instability with the mid-level
front. We continued with a broad-brush approach to this pcpn
threat and did not add thunder attm. We did however keep thunder
in the fcst for Tues afternoon across the Nrn Mtn zones. With the
upper trough directly over the Pac Nw Tues through Wed morning,
not only will the pcpn be highly convective, but snow levels will
fall markedly, leading to a significant snow and/or graupel
accumulation threat. The area of most concern is the Idaho
Panhandle Wed morning under a developing trowal and post- frontal
upslope. In addition, small- scale vort maxes within the upper
trough are notorious for producing localized heavy bursts of
pcpn...the locations of which will be very difficult to nail down.
It`s likely that valley locations will see some snow or graupel with
this scenario. We increased the gusty west winds for Tues, but
still below advsy thresholds. bz

Thursday through Sunday: Unsettled weather will remain for much of
the extended forecast, as a trough of low pressure slowly moves
overhead. Precipitation chances will exist each day, with almost
all areas carrying at least some chance of rainfall (or mountain
snowfall). The trough does begin to move east sometime during the
weekend, but it will remain close enough that showers would still
be possible in the afternoon. And looking further into the future,
yet another trough may affect the Inland Northwest the following
week.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected each day with
expected widespread cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Readings will be 5 to 8 degrees below normal Thursday, with only a
slow moderation into the weekend. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak warm front will move through this afternoon and evening
and spread some mid to high level cloud cover across the region
from west to east. Clouds will thicken and lower aft 12z Monday
but remian VFR through 18Z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  39  65  44  54  36 /   0   0   0  50  70  50
Coeur d`Alene  57  37  65  46  54  36 /   0   0   0  40  70  70
Pullman        57  39  66  44  52  36 /   0   0   0  50  70  60
Lewiston       64  42  73  49  57  39 /   0   0   0  40  60  50
Colville       62  35  68  41  59  36 /   0   0  10  50  60  40
Sandpoint      56  35  65  43  53  36 /   0   0   0  20  70  80
Kellogg        56  35  67  41  51  34 /   0   0   0  20  80  90
Moses Lake     66  42  68  46  62  39 /   0   0  10  60  40  20
Wenatchee      66  46  66  48  60  38 /   0   0  20  60  30  20
Omak           66  39  67  44  60  36 /   0   0  20  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 201147
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Easter Sunday should be mild and dry. After a warm and dry
Monday, a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday
and linger through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Easter Sunday: The Inland Northwest will be between weather
systems from Easter Sunday into Monday. The cold front from
yesterday will be well east of the region today with shortwave
ridging of higher pressure building in. This will promote more
stable mid level lapse rates with clearing skies behind the front.
However, we will see some mid to high level cloud cover enter the
region off of the Pacific. Current satellite imagery at 2:00 AM
shows increasing clouds moving toward western WA along a weak warm
front boundary. These clouds will ride up over the ridge and
generally impact the northern two-thirds of the forecast area
through this afternoon into this evening. The good news is that
precip is not expected along this warm front, so Easter
festivities are expected to see dry conditions with temperatures
right around normal.

Tonight through Monday: The next weather system is set to begin
to impact the region on Monday. All model guidance shows
increasing moisture steaming up out ahead of the cold front at
this time. This front can be located on satellite imagery between
140-150W and 35-45N with darkening on water vapor imagery
indicating the back edge of this front. A 150 +kt jet steak on the
back side of the upper level trough will act to dig this energy,
which will effectively orientate the front more meridionally with
time. This will slow down the front and hang it up just off the
western coastline. Moisture will increase over the region in an
increasingly more southerly and mild flow pattern. This moisture
will result in increasing cloud cover during the day, but any
precip will likely hold off closer to the Cascade Mtns until
better forcing with the front moves further east after this
period. 850 temperatures will increase substantially across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Warmer temperatures aloft will
result in a general warming trend into Monday, but we will also
see quite a bit of cloud cover that will temper this warm up a
bit. /SVH

Mon Nt through Wed Nt: The fcst challenges remain the same.
Namely...pcpn amnts and temps well below normal for Tues through
Wed (leading to low snow levels and Spring snow accumulations)
for NE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle, as well as gusty winds and
thunder chances Tues. Though model guidance concerning the above-
mentioned challenges has not dramatically changed, our confidence
level remains low concerning the specifics...especially with snow
levels and accumulations Tues Nt. The initial band of pcpn Tues
morning may be enhanced by elevated instability with the mid-level
front. We continued with a broad-brush approach to this pcpn
threat and did not add thunder attm. We did however keep thunder
in the fcst for Tues afternoon across the Nrn Mtn zones. With the
upper trough directly over the Pac Nw Tues through Wed morning,
not only will the pcpn be highly convective, but snow levels will
fall markedly, leading to a significant snow and/or graupel
accumulation threat. The area of most concern is the Idaho
Panhandle Wed morning under a developing trowal and post- frontal
upslope. In addition, small- scale vort maxes within the upper
trough are notorious for producing localized heavy bursts of
pcpn...the locations of which will be very difficult to nail down.
It`s likely that valley locations will see some snow or graupel with
this scenario. We increased the gusty west winds for Tues, but
still below advsy thresholds. bz

Thursday through Sunday: Unsettled weather will remain for much of
the extended forecast, as a trough of low pressure slowly moves
overhead. Precipitation chances will exist each day, with almost
all areas carrying at least some chance of rainfall (or mountain
snowfall). The trough does begin to move east sometime during the
weekend, but it will remain close enough that showers would still
be possible in the afternoon. And looking further into the future,
yet another trough may affect the Inland Northwest the following
week.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected each day with
expected widespread cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Readings will be 5 to 8 degrees below normal Thursday, with only a
slow moderation into the weekend. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Lingering boundary layer moisture will produce a few low
clouds mainly over the ID Panhandle this morning. Shortwave
ridging of higher pressure today will result in a continuing
diminishing shower trend. A weak warm front passage this afternoon
into the evening will spread some mid to high level cloud cover
across the region from west to east, but should have little to
no impact on aviation with VFR conditions prevailing through 12Z
Monday. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  39  65  44  54  36 /   0   0   0  50  70  50
Coeur d`Alene  57  37  65  46  54  36 /  10   0   0  40  70  70
Pullman        57  39  66  44  52  36 /   0   0   0  50  70  60
Lewiston       64  42  73  49  57  39 /   0   0   0  40  60  50
Colville       62  35  68  41  59  36 /  10   0  10  50  60  40
Sandpoint      56  35  65  43  53  36 /  10   0   0  20  70  80
Kellogg        56  35  67  41  51  34 /  10   0   0  20  80  90
Moses Lake     66  42  68  46  62  39 /   0   0  10  60  40  20
Wenatchee      66  46  66  48  60  38 /   0   0  20  60  30  20
Omak           66  39  67  44  60  36 /   0   0  20  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Easter Sunday should be mild and dry. After a warm and dry
Monday, a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday
and linger through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Eastern Sunday: The Inland Northwest will be between weather
systems from Easter Sunday into Monday. The cold front from
yesterday will be well east of the region today with shortwave
ridging of higher pressure building in. This will promote more
stable mid level lapse rates with clearing skies behind the front.
However, we will see some mid to high level cloud cover enter the
region off of the Pacific. Current satellite imagery at 2:00 AM
shows increasing clouds moving toward western WA along a weak warm
front boundary. These clouds will ride up over the ridge and
generally impact the northern two-thirds of the forecast area
through this afternoon into this evening. The good news is that
precip is not expected along this warm front, so Easter
festivities are expected to see dry conditions with temperatures
right around normal.

Tonight through Monday: The next weather system is set to begin
to impact the region on Monday. All model guidance shows
increasing moisture steaming up out ahead of the cold front at
this time. This front can be located on satellite imagery between
140-150W and 35-45N with darkening on water vapor imagery
indicating the back edge of this front. A 150 +kt jet steak on the
back side of the upper level trough will act to dig this energy,
which will effectively orientate the front more meridionally with
time. This will slow down the front and hang it up just off the
western coastline. Moisture will increase over the region in an
increasingly more southerly and mild flow pattern. This moisture
will result in increasing cloud cover during the day, but any
precip will likely hold off closer to the Cascade Mtns until
better forcing with the front moves further east after this
period. 850 temperatures will increase substantially across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Warmer temperatures aloft will
result in a general warming trend into Monday, but we will also
see quite a bit of cloud cover that will temper this warm up a
bit. /SVH

Mon Nt through Wed Nt: The fcst challenges remain the same.
Namely...pcpn amnts and temps well below normal for Tues through
Wed (leading to low snow levels and Spring snow accumulations)
for NE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle, as well as gusty winds and
thunder chances Tues. Though model guidance concerning the above-
mentioned challenges has not dramatically changed, our confidence
level remains low concerning the specifics...especially with snow
levels and accumulations Tues Nt. The initial band of pcpn Tues
morning may be enhanced by elevated instability with the mid-level
front. We continued with a broad-brush approach to this pcpn
threat and did not add thunder attm. We did however keep thunder
in the fcst for Tues afternoon across the Nrn Mtn zones. With the
upper trough directly over the Pac Nw Tues through Wed morning,
not only will the pcpn be highly convective, but snow levels will
fall markedly, leading to a significant snow and/or graupel
accumulation threat. The area of most concern is the Idaho
Panhandle Wed morning under a developing trowal and post- frontal
upslope. In addition, small- scale vort maxes within the upper
trough are notorious for producing localized heavy bursts of
pcpn...the locations of which will be very difficult to nail down.
It`s likely that valley locations will see some snow or graupel with
this scenario. We increased the gusty west winds for Tues, but
still below advsy thresholds. bz

Thursday through Sunday: Unsettled weather will remain for much of
the extended forecast, as a trough of low pressure slowly moves
overhead. Precipitation chances will exist each day, with almost
all areas carrying at least some chance of rainfall (or mountain
snowfall). The trough does begin to move east sometime during the
weekend, but it will remain close enough that showers would still
be possible in the afternoon. And looking further into the future,
yet another trough may affect the Inland Northwest the following
week.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected each day with
expected widespread cloud cover and associated precipitation.
Readings will be 5 to 8 degrees below normal Thursday, with only a
slow moderation into the weekend. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An exiting cold front is taking most of the light
showers and/or sprinkles out of the aviation area overnight along
with a gradual decrease in the gusty/breezy wind conditions...otherwise
VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through 06z Monday.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  39  65  44  54  36 /   0   0   0  50  70  50
Coeur d`Alene  57  37  65  46  54  36 /  10   0   0  40  70  70
Pullman        57  39  66  44  52  36 /   0   0   0  50  70  60
Lewiston       64  42  73  49  57  39 /   0   0   0  40  60  50
Colville       62  35  68  41  59  36 /  10   0  10  50  60  40
Sandpoint      56  35  65  43  53  36 /  10   0   0  20  70  80
Kellogg        56  35  67  41  51  34 /  10   0   0  20  80  90
Moses Lake     66  42  68  46  62  39 /   0   0  10  60  40  20
Wenatchee      66  46  66  48  60  38 /   0   0  20  60  30  20
Omak           66  39  67  44  60  36 /   0   0  20  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 200527
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring windy conditions this afternoon and
tonight with some showers mainly for the mountain zones. Easter
Sunday should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday,
a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday and
linger through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some modification done to the forecast for tonight concerning the
general trend for gradual decrease in pops and wind and wind gusts
tonight, but it may be very late as the area behind the exiting
cold front has some clutter in terms of light showers and
disturbances CONDUCIVE to mixing some breezy/gusty winds well
through the night in a few spots until it all exits closer to
12-15Z Monday. Grids updates will get pushed out but the zone
forecast may be delayed some or just not sent depending upon how
the activity on the radar and the wind gusts in some locations
trend during this hour. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An exiting cold front is taking most of the light
showers and/or sprinkles out of the aviation area overnight along
with a gradual decrease in the gusty/breezy wind conditions...otherwise
VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through 06z Monday.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  58  39  67  44  54 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  57  37  68  46  54 /  30   0   0   0  40  70
Pullman        35  57  39  68  44  52 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Lewiston       41  63  42  75  49  57 /  20   0   0   0  40  60
Colville       34  64  35  71  41  59 /  30  10   0  10  50  60
Sandpoint      35  57  35  67  43  53 /  50  10   0   0  20  70
Kellogg        36  55  35  68  41  51 /  40  20   0   0  20  80
Moses Lake     37  66  42  73  46  62 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Wenatchee      41  67  46  70  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Omak           33  66  39  70  44  60 /  10   0   0  20  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 192340
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
439 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring windy conditions this afternoon and
tonight with some showers mainly for the mountain zones. Easter
Sunday should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday,
a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday and
linger through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Most of the weather this period will be
in response to the cold front currently pushing into the Cascades.
Model solutions are handling the positioning of the front and
continue to push it through the remainder of eastern Washington
and north Idaho through early evening. The latest radar images are
showing some showers along and ahead of the front...however with a
fairly dry sub-cloud layer in place...not much is hitting the
ground. This drying is also being aided by the downslope westerly
flow over the Cascades. Although we won`t entirely rule out the
chances for precipitation hitting the ground over the Okanogan
Valley...western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee area...it likely
won`t be enough to soak the ground. As the front moves into the
eastern third of Washington and north Idaho the chances will
increase as the in situ sub-cloud layer is more moist while...the
same southwest mid-level flow will lead to general ascent. Any
precipitation which falls won`t be heavy as the front is trailed
by a swift moving upper level shortwave trough. The threat of
precipitation will wane rapidly overnight as drier air slides into
the region behind the front. Winds will also increase steadily
behind the front and passage of the shortwave trough. Fine
resolution models are showing winds gusts of 30-35 mph by late
afternoon into the evening across the southern Columbia
Basin...Palouse...and Blue Mountains. The peak winds will likely
occur between 4pm and 9pm...then slowly subside overnight.
Sunday`s weather looks tranquil as a shortwave ridge temporarily
builds over the region. A few of the models are showing some
residual instability and light showers over the extreme eastern
Panhandle and near the Cascade Crest...but suspect that is
overdone based on model soundings in those areas. fx

Sunday night through Tuesday: The upper level ridge will begin to
shift east Sunday night as an elongated upper level trough nears
the west coast. The trough will begin to move onshore Monday night
and swing into the Inland Northwest Tuesday for an increased
chance of precipitation. While most of the energy associated with
the trough will dig south into California, there is still decent
dynamics across our area on Tuesday as the trough becomes
negatively tilted.

Have kept the forecast dry Sunday night. Monday keep the chance of
precip mostly along the Cascade mountains. Monday night
precipitation starts to move east across the state, and by Tuesday
most locations will be receiving rain. Rain amounts will generally
range from 0.10 or less across the east slope valleys and Columbia
Basin to 0.30 along the Cascade Crest and Mountains of northern WA
and north ID. Models are showing decent instability Tuesday
afternoon across north-central WA and have therefore added a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Clouds will be on the increase
Monday into Tuesday. Monday temps will be 5-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year and then Tuesday with the trough
passage temps will drop down to about 5 degrees below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...An upper level trough will keep
cool and unsettled conditions across the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Post frontal gusty winds will keep temperatures from
falling below freezing for most valley locations. Daytime
temperatures will be on the cool side of normal while the cold
upper trough remains overhead, especially for the eastern zones
where instability showers will be more numerous in westerly
upslope flow. Brief ridging Wednesday night will be shunted east
by the next Pacific trough. This system will be slow to transition
east so the region will be in very moist and energetic flow aloft
for the rest of the work week and into next weekend. This will
bring a good chance of precipitation each day along with
temperatures near seasonal normals. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A passing cold front will bring some light showers
and/or sprinkles to the aviation area along with some gusty/windy
conditions into the early evening however VFR conditions expected
at all forecast sites through 00z Monday.Winds will decrease
overnight and into Sunday with clearing skies expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  58  39  67  44  54 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  57  37  68  46  54 /  30   0   0   0  40  70
Pullman        35  57  39  68  44  52 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Lewiston       41  63  42  75  49  57 /  20   0   0   0  40  60
Colville       34  64  35  71  41  59 /  30  10   0  10  50  60
Sandpoint      35  57  35  67  43  53 /  50  10   0   0  20  70
Kellogg        36  55  35  68  41  51 /  40  20   0   0  20  80
Moses Lake     37  66  42  73  46  62 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Wenatchee      41  67  46  70  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Omak           33  66  39  70  44  60 /  10   0   0  20  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 192232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
331 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring windy conditions this afternoon and
tonight with some showers mainly for the mountain zones. Easter
Sunday should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday,
a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday and
linger through much of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Most of the weather this period will be
in response to the cold front currently pushing into the Cascades.
Model solutions are handling the positioning of the front and
continue to push it through the remainder of eastern Washington
and north Idaho through early evening. The latest radar images are
showing some showers along and ahead of the front...however with a
fairly dry sub-cloud layer in place...not much is hitting the
ground. This drying is also being aided by the downslope westerly
flow over the Cascades. Although we won`t entirely rule out the
chances for precipitation hitting the ground over the Okanogan
Valley...western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee area...it likely
won`t be enough to soak the ground. As the front moves into the
eastern third of Washington and north Idaho the chances will
increase as the in situ sub-cloud layer is more moist while...the
same southwest mid-level flow will lead to general ascent. Any
precipitation which falls won`t be heavy as the front is trailed
by a swift moving upper level shortwave trough. The threat of
precipitation will wane rapidly overnight as drier air slides into
the region behind the front. Winds will also increase steadily
behind the front and passage of the shortwave trough. Fine
resolution models are showing winds gusts of 30-35 mph by late
afternoon into the evening across the southern Columbia
Basin...Palouse...and Blue Mountains. The peak winds will likely
occur between 4pm and 9pm...then slowly subside overnight.
Sunday`s weather looks tranquil as a shortwave ridge temporarily
builds over the region. A few of the models are showing some
residual instability and light showers over the extreme eastern
Panhandle and near the Cascade Crest...but suspect that is
overdone based on model soundings in those areas. fx

Sunday night through Tuesday: The upper level ridge will begin to
shift east Sunday night as an elongated upper level trough nears
the west coast. The trough will begin to move onshore Monday night
and swing into the Inland Northwest Tuesday for an increased
chance of precipitation. While most of the energy associated with
the trough will dig south into California, there is still decent
dynamics across our area on Tuesday as the trough becomes
negatively tilted.

Have kept the forecast dry Sunday night. Monday keep the chance of
precip mostly along the Cascade mountains. Monday night
precipitation starts to move east across the state, and by Tuesday
most locations will be receiving rain. Rain amounts will generally
range from 0.10 or less across the east slope valleys and Columbia
Basin to 0.30 along the Cascade Crest and Mountains of northern WA
and north ID. Models are showing decent instability Tuesday
afternoon across north-central WA and have therefore added a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Clouds will be on the increase
Monday into Tuesday. Monday temps will be 5-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year and then Tuesday with the trough
passage temps will drop down to about 5 degrees below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...An upper level trough will keep
cool and unsettled conditions across the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Post frontal gusty winds will keep temperatures from
falling below freezing for most valley locations. Daytime
temperatures will be on the cool side of normal while the cold
upper trough remains overhead, especially for the eastern zones
where instability showers will be more numerous in westerly
upslope flow. Brief ridging Wednesday night will be shunted east
by the next Pacific trough. This system will be slow to transition
east so the region will be in very moist and energetic flow aloft
for the rest of the work week and into next weekend. This will
bring a good chance of precipitation each day along with
temperatures near seasonal normals. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sun. The main weather maker this period is a cold front which
is expected to move into the EAT and MWH area between 20z-23z and
into the remaining sites between 22z-02z or so. As long as the
front is in the vicinity there will be a small chance of
showers...however there is also a significant amount of downslope
westerly flow to overcome. There will be a much better chance of a
substantial wind increase through the afternoon as the north to
east winds this morning transition to westerly flow later this
afternoon and into the evening. Timing the transition to the hour
will be tough...however feel confident it will occur at all sites
between 21Z-01z. Wind gusts from 25-35 mph are expected. Winds
will slowly decrease overnight and into Sunday with clearing skies
expected. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  58  39  67  44  54 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  57  37  68  46  54 /  30   0   0   0  40  70
Pullman        35  57  39  68  44  52 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Lewiston       41  63  42  75  49  57 /  20   0   0   0  40  60
Colville       34  64  35  71  41  59 /  30  10   0  10  50  60
Sandpoint      35  57  35  67  43  53 /  50  10   0   0  20  70
Kellogg        36  55  35  68  41  51 /  40  20   0   0  20  80
Moses Lake     37  66  42  73  46  62 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Wenatchee      41  67  46  70  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Omak           33  66  39  70  44  60 /  10   0   0  20  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 192144
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring windy conditions this afternoon and
tonight with some showers mainly for the mountain zones. Easter
Sunday should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday,
a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday and
linger through much of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...


Sunday night through Tuesday: The upper level ridge will begin to
shift east Sunday night as an elongated upper level trough nears
the west coast. The trough will begin to move onshore Monday night
and swing into the Inland Northwest Tuesday for an increased
chance of precipitation. While most of the energy associated with
the trough will dig south into California, there is still decent
dynamics across our area on Tuesday as the trough becomes
negatively tilted.

Have kept the forecast dry Sunday night. Monday keep the chance of
precip mostly along the Cascade mountains. Monday night
precipitation starts to move east across the state, and by Tuesday
most locations will be receiving rain. Rain amounts will generally
range from 0.10 or less across the east slope valleys and Columbia
Basin to 0.30 along the Cascade Crest and Mountains of northern WA
and north ID. Models are showing decent instability Tuesday
afternoon across north-central WA and have therefore added a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Clouds will be on the increase
Monday into Tuesday. Monday temps will be 5-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year and then Tuesday with the trough
passage temps will drop down to about 5 degrees below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...An upper level trough will keep
cool and unsettled conditions across the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Post frontal gusty winds will keep temperatures from
falling below freezing for most valley locations. Daytime
temperatures will be on the cool side of normal while the cold
upper trough remains overhead, especially for the eastern zones
where instability showers will be more numerous in westerly
upslope flow. Brief ridging Wednesday night will be shunted east
by the next Pacific trough. This system will be slow to transition
east so the region will be in very moist and energetic flow aloft
for the rest of the work week and into next weekend. This will
bring a good chance of precipitation each day along with
temperatures near seasonal normals. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sun. The main weather maker this period is a cold front which
is expected to move into the EAT and MWH area between 20z-23z and
into the remaining sites between 22z-02z or so. As long as the
front is in the vicinity there will be a small chance of
showers...however there is also a significant amount of downslope
westerly flow to overcome. There will be a much better chance of a
substantial wind increase through the afternoon as the north to
east winds this morning transition to westerly flow later this
afternoon and into the evening. Timing the transition to the hour
will be tough...however feel confident it will occur at all sites
between 21Z-01z. Wind gusts from 25-35 mph are expected. Winds
will slowly decrease overnight and into Sunday with clearing skies
expected. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  58  39  67  44  54 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  57  37  68  46  54 /  30   0   0   0  40  70
Pullman        35  57  39  68  44  52 /  20   0   0   0  50  70
Lewiston       41  63  42  75  49  57 /  20   0   0   0  40  60
Colville       34  64  35  71  41  59 /  30  10   0  10  50  60
Sandpoint      35  57  35  67  43  53 /  50  10   0   0  20  70
Kellogg        36  55  35  68  41  51 /  40  20   0   0  20  80
Moses Lake     37  66  42  73  46  62 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Wenatchee      41  67  46  70  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  50  40
Omak           33  66  39  70  44  60 /  10   0   0  20  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 191847
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1146 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Following freezing temperatures this morning for most towns, another
storm system will bring windy conditions this afternoon and night
with some showers mainly for the mountain zones. Easter Sunday
should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, a cool
and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday and linger
through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Rest of today...Main focus for the remainder of the day will
revolve around deep low over Gulf of Alaska and elongated cold front
pushing through western Washington. The front was producing
widespread light rains over southwest Washington and will likely
continue to do so as it approaches the Cascade Crest by early
afternoon. Just how much precipitation falls as the front passes
east of the Crest is the forecast problem of the period. The mid-
level winds associated with the front and trailing upper level
trough will remain primarily westerly...so there should be a well-
defined rain shadow. Even so it wouldn`t be too surprising that
some light precipitation occurs as the front moves into the
Wenatchee area and western Columbia Basin later this afternoon.
Chances are it won`t amount to much in terms of measurable
precipitation however suspect there will be a few showers to
contend with. Across the eastern third of Washington and north
Idaho the chances for precipitation will likely hold off until
late afternoon. The other story will be the arrival of breezy west
to southwest winds behind the passing cold front this afternoon.
By mid-afternoon wind speeds should increase to 15 to 25 mph with
gusts approaching 35 mph. The strongest speeds are expected to
occur across the southern Columbia Basin...Palouse...and Blue
Mountains. The breezy conditions will continue through the
evening. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sun. The main weather maker this period is a cold front which
is expected to move into the EAT and MWH area between 20z-23z and
into the remaining sites between 22z-02z or so. As long as the
front is in the vicinity there will be a small chance of
showers...however there is also a significant amount of downslope
westerly flow to overcome. There will be a much better chance of a
substantial wind increase through the afternoon as the north to
east winds this morning transition to westerly flow later this
afternoon and into the evening. Timing the transition to the hour
will be tough...however feel confident it will occur at all sites
between 21Z-01z. Wind gusts from 25-35 mph are expected. Winds
will slowly decrease overnight and into Sunday with clearing skies
expected. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  37  57  40  67  45 /  10  20   0   0   0  50
Coeur d`Alene  61  37  57  38  67  45 /  10  40  10   0   0  40
Pullman        62  36  57  40  68  45 /  10  20   0   0   0  50
Lewiston       69  41  63  43  74  50 /  10  10   0   0   0  40
Colville       64  36  65  36  70  41 /  20  20  10   0  10  50
Sandpoint      60  38  57  35  64  43 /  10  50  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        60  37  55  36  66  40 /  10  50  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     66  40  66  43  72  46 /  10  10   0   0  10  50
Wenatchee      62  41  66  46  68  48 /  10  10  10   0  10  50
Omak           63  35  66  39  67  43 /  20  10  10   0  20  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 191152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Following freezing temperatures this morning for most towns, another
storm system will bring windy conditions this afternoon and night
with some showers mainly for the mountain zones. Easter Sunday
should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, a cool
and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday and linger
through much of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Satellite imagery shows the next
weather system approaching the region early this morning. A low
pressure circulation is at approximately 140W/50N with an
occluded front at around 130W heading toward the west coast. The
moisture source with this front can be located on water vapor
satellite imagery by the band of elevated moisture content from
160W/30N stretching to northern California. This moisture tap is
shearing out and, as a result, will be a limiting factor for
precip across the region as the front pushes through this
afternoon. The front itself does have good structure to it and
forcing aloft will be decent. Good cold air advection is expected
as well. This will lead to a fairly tight pressure gradient
developing behind the front. Winds will once again pick up this
afternoon and the timing of the front will promote good mixing
during as it will move through during the afternoon. 850 mb winds
are only progged at around 30-35 kts. These magnitudes will be
sufficient for solidly breezy to windy conditions, but advisory
level winds are not expected. Expect sustained wind speeds of
around 20-25 mph with gusts to around 35-40 mp. Strongest wind
speeds will likely be on the Palouse and in the Northeast Blue
Mtns. These locations could see higher winds closer to 25 mph
sustained with gusts to around 45 mph. A lack of moisture with the
front will result in light precip and much of the lower elevations
may only see some sprinkles, especially in the basin. Best chances
for measurable precip will be in the mountains and in the ID
Panhandle. The region will dry out on Easter Sunday as we will be
between systems. Temperatures over the weekend will be near
average for mid April. /SVH

Mon through Wed: There are a number of challenges in this three-
day period...leading to a lower than normal confidence level. Even
with only one well-defined cold front and its accompanying upper
trough passage, timing remains uncertain given the north-south
shearing of the trough as it moves into the Pac Nw. Model guidance
typically brings this type of trough onshore too fast three days
out, so we still favor a slightly slower progression of the wave.
That said, we lowered pcpn amnts into Mon evening with the initial
frontal boundary. One of the biggest uncertainties concerns
thunder chances Mon Nt, mainly from elevated, non sfc- based
instability above 700mb tied to a plume of moisture surging north
ahead of the trough. A number of models show a narrow, but heavy
band of pcpn Tues morning close to this elevated instability and
mid-level front. We continued with a broad-brush approach to this
pcpn threat and did not add thunder attm. With the upper trough
directly over the Pac Nw Tues through Wed morning, not only will
the pcpn be highly convective, but snow levels will fall
markedly, leading to a significant snow and/or graupel
accumulation threat. This will especially true for the Idaho
Panhandle Wed morning under a developing trowal and post-frontal
upslope. It`s likely that valley locations will see some snow with
this scenario. Gusty post-frontal winds will also be likely. Well
below normal temps Wed looks certain for the Idaho Panhandle. bz

Wednesday night through Saturday: Parts of the Inland Northwest
will be dealing with the departing trough Wednesday night/Thursday
morning before brief ridging allows for slight lull in the
precipitation. Any remaining precipitation Wednesday night over
northeast Washington into the northern Idaho Panhandle will still
have somewhat colder air to deal with, meaning snow at least in
the mountains, and possibly into the higher valleys. Amounts
during this period look like they`d be on the low side, so impacts
would be minimal.

Ridging shouldn`t last as the next large scale trough approaches
the Pacific Northwest to close out the work week. This will bring
more chances for precipitation most areas into the weekend.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal each
afternoon, especially with the cloud cover that may never really
clear out. The best chance, as of now, for more sunshine would be
Thursday over the Columbia Basin. However, breezy conditions may
result due to stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface. All-in-
all, lots to look at for the far extended periods. Could be quite
active. ty


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front is beginning to push into western WA this
morning. This front is expected to cross east of the Cascade Mtns
after 20Z this afternoon and then quickly spread across eastern
WA and into the ID Panhandle. This front will generate mainly mid
level cloud cover over the TAF sites with some sprinkles possible,
but will be dry for the most part. The main impact will be winds
shifting from the east and northeast to out of the west and
becoming gusty at the same time. Expect wind gusts up around 30-35
mph with gusts peaking in the late afternoon and evening hours.
/SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  37  57  40  67  45 /  10  20   0   0  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  61  37  57  38  67  45 /  10  40  10   0  10  50
Pullman        62  36  57  40  68  45 /  10  20   0   0  10  50
Lewiston       69  41  63  43  74  50 /  10  10   0   0  10  50
Colville       64  36  65  36  70  41 /  10  20  10   0  10  50
Sandpoint      60  38  57  35  64  43 /  10  50  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        60  37  55  36  66  40 /  10  50  10   0  10  30
Moses Lake     66  40  66  43  72  46 /  10  10   0   0  10  50
Wenatchee      62  41  66  46  68  48 /  10  10  10   0  10  50
Omak           63  35  66  39  67  43 /  10  10  10   0  10  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 190959
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Following freezing temperatures this morning for most towns, another
storm system will bring windy conditions this afternoon and night
with some showers mainly for the mountain zones. Easter Sunday
should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, a cool
and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday and linger
through much of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Satellite imagery shows the next
weather system approaching the region early this morning. A low
pressure circulation is at approximately 140W/50N with an
occluded front at around 130W heading toward the west coast. The
moisture source with this front can be located on water vapor
satellite imagery by the band of elevated moisture content from
160W/30N stretching to northern California. This moisture tap is
shearing out and, as a result, will be a limiting factor for
precip across the region as the front pushes through this
afternoon. The front itself does have good structure to it and
forcing aloft will be decent. Good cold air advection is expected
as well. This will lead to a fairly tight pressure gradient
developing behind the front. Winds will once again pick up this
afternoon and the timing of the front will promote good mixing
during as it will move through during the afternoon. 850 mb winds
are only progged at around 30-35 kts. These magnitudes will be
sufficient for solidly breezy to windy conditions, but advisory
level winds are not expected. Expect sustained wind speeds of
around 20-25 mph with gusts to around 35-40 mp. Strongest wind
speeds will likely be on the Palouse and in the Northeast Blue
Mtns. These locations could see higher winds closer to 25 mph
sustained with gusts to around 45 mph. A lack of moisture with the
front will result in light precip and much of the lower elevations
may only see some sprinkles, especially in the basin. Best chances
for measurable precip will be in the mountains and in the ID
Panhandle. The region will dry out on Easter Sunday as we will be
between systems. Temperatures over the weekend will be near
average for mid April. /SVH

Mon through Wed: There are a number of challenges in this three-
day period...leading to a lower than normal confidence level. Even
with only one well-defined cold front and its accompanying upper
trough passage, timing remains uncertain given the north-south
shearing of the trough as it moves into the Pac Nw. Model guidance
typically brings this type of trough onshore too fast three days
out, so we still favor a slightly slower progression of the wave.
That said, we lowered pcpn amnts into Mon evening with the initial
frontal boundary. One of the biggest uncertainties concerns
thunder chances Mon Nt, mainly from elevated, non sfc- based
instability above 700mb tied to a plume of moisture surging north
ahead of the trough. A number of models show a narrow, but heavy
band of pcpn Tues morning close to this elevated instability and
mid-level front. We continued with a broad-brush approach to this
pcpn threat and did not add thunder attm. With the upper trough
directly over the Pac Nw Tues through Wed morning, not only will
the pcpn be highly convective, but snow levels will fall
markedly, leading to a significant snow and/or graupel
accumulation threat. This will especially true for the Idaho
Panhandle Wed morning under a developing trowal and post-frontal
upslope. It`s likely that valley locations will see some snow with
this scenario. Gusty post-frontal winds will also be likely. Well
below normal temps Wed looks certain for the Idaho Panhandle. bz

Wednesday night through Saturday: Parts of the Inland Northwest
will be dealing with the departing trough Wednesday night/Thursday
morning before brief ridging allows for slight lull in the
precipitation. Any remaining precipitation Wednesday night over
northeast Washington into the northern Idaho Panhandle will still
have somewhat colder air to deal with, meaning snow at least in
the mountains, and possibly into the higher valleys. Amounts
during this period look like they`d be on the low side, so impacts
would be minimal.

Ridging shouldn`t last as the next large scale trough approaches
the Pacific Northwest to close out the work week. This will bring
more chances for precipitation most areas into the weekend.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal each
afternoon, especially with the cloud cover that may never really
clear out. The best chance, as of now, for more sunshine would be
Thursday over the Columbia Basin. However, breezy conditions may
result due to stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface. All-in-
all, lots to look at for the far extended periods. Could be quite
active. ty


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A second robust cold front will move through the
aviation area Saturday allowing clouds to invade the sky from the
south and west which will thicken and lower with time along with
some shower activity. The most significant impact of this front
passage will be another windy interval, primarily Saturday
afternoon and evening. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  37  57  40  67  45 /  10  20   0   0  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  61  37  57  38  67  45 /  10  40  10   0  10  50
Pullman        62  36  57  40  68  45 /  10  20   0   0  10  50
Lewiston       69  41  63  43  74  50 /  10  10   0   0  10  50
Colville       64  36  65  36  70  41 /  10  20  10   0  10  50
Sandpoint      60  38  57  35  64  43 /  10  50  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        60  37  55  36  66  40 /  10  50  10   0  10  30
Moses Lake     66  40  66  43  72  46 /  10  10   0   0  10  50
Wenatchee      62  41  66  46  68  48 /  10  10  10   0  10  50
Omak           63  35  66  39  67  43 /  10  10  10   0  10  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 190525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies, lighter winds, and cool temperatures will be the
trend tonight. Another storm system will bring windy conditions
Saturday afternoon and night with some showers across the north.
Easter Sunday should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry
Monday, a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday
and linger through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor updates to sky and removal of pops and sprinkle wording
utilized earlier this evening. No other significant changes mad as
yet another cold front passage will bring another round of windy
conditions Saturday afternoon and evening. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A second robust cold front will move through the
aviation area Saturday allowing clouds to invade the sky from the
south and west which will thicken and lower with time along with
some shower activity. The most significant impact of this front
passage will be another windy interval, primarily Saturday
afternoon and evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  63  35  59  40  67 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  31  62  36  58  39  67 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Pullman        33  65  35  58  41  68 /   0  10  20   0   0  10
Lewiston       36  71  41  65  45  74 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       31  66  32  65  36  70 /  10  20  20  10  10  10
Sandpoint      28  61  36  58  36  64 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Kellogg        31  62  35  57  37  66 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Moses Lake     32  68  38  66  43  72 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      37  64  42  66  47  68 /   0  20  10  10  10  10
Omak           29  63  35  65  40  67 /   0  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 182344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies, lighter winds, and cool temperatures will be the
trend tonight. Another storm system will bring windy conditions
Saturday afternoon and night with some showers across the north.
Easter Sunday should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry
Monday, a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday
and linger through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight into Saturday morning: A pool of instability remains
across far northeastern WA and the northern ID Panhandle this
afternoon. Radar and satellite trends indicate at least one last
cluster of showers crossing through Boundary and Bonner Counties
then most shower activity will wane. This will lead to clearing
skies through much of the night. As for winds, pressure gradients
peaked around 12z and are slowly coming down. Afternoon mixing and
cold air advection has led to breezy to gusty winds through much
of the day but all trends will support the idea of decreasing
winds through the evening hours...becoming around 10 mph or less
overnight. Meanwhile, much drier air has settled into the region
behind this morning`s cold front. The combination of these
ingredients will lead to another chilly night across the region
with most sheltered northern valleys experiences well below freezing
temperatures.

The potential for near freezing temperatures will likely extend
into the Basin and toward the Moses Lake Area. There is not
enough confidence nor model support to issue freeze warnings based
on the coverage being more localized and a deep freeze just
experienced on the 14th. We also looked back into that event from
the 14th and dewpoints were significantly drier than today.
Nonetheless, we do anticipate temperatures to dip between 34 and
31F within the Moses Lake, Royal City, George, Ephrata, and
Beverly areas and those with sensitive plants within these
locations should prepare for near freezing temperatures but
not panic of a hard freeze.

A few clouds will begin crossing the Cascades before
sunrise...associated with the next frontal system but overall,
dry conditions will prevail through Saturday morning. Any fog that
develops in the northern valleys will burn off my late morning.
/sb

Saturday afternoon through Monday...A cold front will move
through the region Saturday, bringing scattered showers to the
Inland Northwest. There is decent upper level forcing but moisture
will be the limiting factor. Showers will mainly affect the higher
elevations as there will be some dry air in the lower levels.
There may be some occasional sprinkles for the basin into the
Spokane area but the more favored areas will be the rising terrain
north and east of the basin. Strong southwest flow aloft will add
orographic ascent to the mix. Southerly flow will also bring
warmer air into the forecast area. Daytime temperatures will warm
into the 60s with low 70s for the warmer valleys. Gusty winds will
accompany the front, increasing the mixing potential for the late
afternoon/early evening period. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be
common across the basin and Waterville Plateau, spreading into the
Palouse and Spokane area. Considering the timing of the front
during the most unstable time of day, there is the possibility of
even higher wind gusts. For now, it looks like winds will remain
below advisory criteria but it will be watched closely for the
next forecast package. Diminishing winds overnight along with
clearing skies will allow for good radiational cooling. The more
sheltered northern valleys will likely dip below freezing but
areas south of I-90 will probably stay above freezing as winds
will remain elevated for much of the overnight period.

A building ridge of high pressure will keep Sunday dry except for
some lingering showers over the Idaho panhandle early in the day.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals but not quite as warm
as Saturday`s readings. Sunshine will be filtered by high clouds
moving in from the west ahead of the next Pacific system that will
start to affect the area Monday. Expect showers to spread to the
Cascade crest late Monday morning. Easterly upslope flow will
enhance lift into the east slopes for a greater chance of precip.
As winds shift to the south during the day, warm frontal precip
will spread across the western half of the forecast area Monday
afternoon and evening. Strong warm air advection will bring
temperatures above normal with most valley locations in the upper
60s to low 70s. The Lewis-Clark valley could see upper 70s and
even 80 degrees in some locations. /Kelch

Monday Night through Saturday: All eyes for the beginning of this
period will be on the system moving from west to east across the
region. The frontal system associated with the incoming trough
looks to be a rather slow mover leading to an increased time frame of
widespread precipitation. Throughout Monday night and into Tuesday
will be the best shot of precip with wetting rains expected for
most. As the trough continues to push inland on Tuesday, we expect
the associated precip to move east as well with much of the Basin
expected to dry out by late Tuesday. Rain is still expected for
far eastern WA and the Panhandle through Tuesday night as the
system slowly pushes into western Montana. The main question with
this system and also where models tend to disagree is the amount
of wrap around moisture. The GFS wraps moisture back into the
northern Panhandle and far NE WA whereas the Euro keeps it further
north late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Current trend is to follow
the GFS more as it has been more consistent over the past few runs
but this may have to be better refined as models come into better
agreement.

The next factor to monitor will be the snow levels. As the trough
center moves overhead, an abundance of associated cold air will
enter brining 850 temps down below zero for portions of our
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. What this
means is a chance for both high and lower mountain snow with some
higher valleys even having a shot for some snowfall. Any valley
snow will likely be in the Cascades and northern WA. Impacts for
the lower areas will be minimal as none of the snow is anticipated
to stick. Higher areas will see a good shot of accumulating snow.
Snow levels rise back to more seasonal levels come daytime
Wednesday leading to valley rain and higher mountain snow.

Winds in the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame look to remain
breezy due to a tightened surface pressure gradient. Currently no
major impacts are expected, but with the cooler daytime temps, the
breeze will make it feel quite cool. Temperatures for the middle
part of the week will remain well below normal with daytime highs
staying in the 50s for most valley locations. Also the sun will
likely be hard to come by as clouds will be prominent with the
system.

Wednesday night and early Thursday looks to feature a brief break
period from the widespread rain as weak ridging builds between
the exiting and next incoming system. The mentioned next system
looks to reach the Cascades Thursday evening before spilling over
on Friday and into the weekend. Detail will have to wait for this
system as models need to come into better agreement. Overall the
period looks to be rather active with widespread rain expected.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Winds will weaken this evening and the cloud cover
will decrease as well over the aviation area. A second robust cold
front will move through the aviation area Saturday allowing
clouds to invade the sky from the south and west which will
thicken and lower with time along with some shower activity.
The most significant impact of this front passage will be another
windy interval, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  63  35  59  40  67 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  31  62  36  58  39  67 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Pullman        33  65  35  58  41  68 /   0  10  20   0   0  10
Lewiston       36  71  41  65  45  74 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       31  66  32  65  36  70 /  10  20  20  10  10  10
Sandpoint      28  61  36  58  36  64 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Kellogg        31  62  35  57  37  66 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Moses Lake     32  68  38  66  43  72 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      37  64  42  66  47  68 /   0  20  10  10  10  10
Omak           29  63  35  65  40  67 /   0  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 182130
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies, lighter winds, and cool temperatures will be the
trend tonight. Another storm system will bring windy conditions
Saturday afternoon and night with some showers across the north.
Easter Sunday should be mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry
Monday, a cool and unsettled weather pattern will return Tuesday
and linger through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight into Saturday morning: A pool of instability remains
across far northeastern WA and the northern ID Panhandle this
afternoon. Radar and satellite trends indicate at least one last
cluster of showers crossing through Boundary and Bonner Counties
then most shower activity will wane. This will lead to clearing
skies through much of the night. As for winds, pressure gradients
peaked around 12z and are slowly coming down. Afternoon mixing and
cold air advection has led to breezy to gusty winds through much
of the day but all trends will support the idea of decreasing
winds through the evening hours...becoming around 10 mph or less
overnight. Meanwhile, much drier air has settled into the region
behind this morning`s cold front. The combination of these
ingredients will lead to another chilly night across the region
with most sheltered northern valleys experiences well below freezing
temperatures.

The potential for near freezing temperatures will likely extend
into the Basin and toward the Moses Lake Area. There is not
enough confidence nor model support to issue freeze warnings based
on the coverage being more localized and a deep freeze just
experienced on the 14th. We also looked back into that event from
the 14th and dewpoints were significantly drier than today.
Nonetheless, we do anticipate temperatures to dip between 34 and
31F within the Moses Lake, Royal City, George, Ephrata, and
Beverly areas and those with sensitive plants within these
locations should prepare for near freezing temperatures but
not panic of a hard freeze.

A few clouds will begin crossing the Cascades before
sunrise...associated with the next frontal system but overall,
dry conditions will prevail through Saturday morning. Any fog that
develops in the northern valleys will burn off my late morning.
/sb

Saturday afternoon through Monday...A cold front will move
through the region Saturday, bringing scattered showers to the
Inland Northwest. There is decent upper level forcing but moisture
will be the limiting factor. Showers will mainly affect the higher
elevations as there will be some dry air in the lower levels.
There may be some occasional sprinkles for the basin into the
Spokane area but the more favored areas will be the rising terrain
north and east of the basin. Strong southwest flow aloft will add
orographic ascent to the mix. Southerly flow will also bring
warmer air into the forecast area. Daytime temperatures will warm
into the 60s with low 70s for the warmer valleys. Gusty winds will
accompany the front, increasing the mixing potential for the late
afternoon/early evening period. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be
common across the basin and Waterville Plateau, spreading into the
Palouse and Spokane area. Considering the timing of the front
during the most unstable time of day, there is the possibility of
even higher wind gusts. For now, it looks like winds will remain
below advisory criteria but it will be watched closely for the
next forecast package. Diminishing winds overnight along with
clearing skies will allow for good radiational cooling. The more
sheltered northern valleys will likely dip below freezing but
areas south of I-90 will probably stay above freezing as winds
will remain elevated for much of the overnight period.

A building ridge of high pressure will keep Sunday dry except for
some lingering showers over the Idaho panhandle early in the day.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals but not quite as warm
as Saturday`s readings. Sunshine will be filtered by high clouds
moving in from the west ahead of the next Pacific system that will
start to affect the area Monday. Expect showers to spread to the
Cascade crest late Monday morning. Easterly upslope flow will
enhance lift into the east slopes for a greater chance of precip.
As winds shift to the south during the day, warm frontal precip
will spread across the western half of the forecast area Monday
afternoon and evening. Strong warm air advection will bring
temperatures above normal with most valley locations in the upper
60s to low 70s. The Lewis-Clark valley could see upper 70s and
even 80 degrees in some locations. /Kelch

Monday Night through Saturday: All eyes for the beginning of this
period will be on the system moving from west to east across the
region. The frontal system associated with the incoming trough
looks to be a rather slow mover leading to an increased time frame of
widespread precipitation. Throughout Monday night and into Tuesday
will be the best shot of precip with wetting rains expected for
most. As the trough continues to push inland on Tuesday, we expect
the associated precip to move east as well with much of the Basin
expected to dry out by late Tuesday. Rain is still expected for
far eastern WA and the Panhandle through Tuesday night as the
system slowly pushes into western Montana. The main question with
this system and also where models tend to disagree is the amount
of wrap around moisture. The GFS wraps moisture back into the
northern Panhandle and far NE WA whereas the Euro keeps it further
north late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Current trend is to follow
the GFS more as it has been more consistent over the past few runs
but this may have to be better refined as models come into better
agreement.

The next factor to monitor will be the snow levels. As the trough
center moves overhead, an abundance of associated cold air will
enter brining 850 temps down below zero for portions of our
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. What this
means is a chance for both high and lower mountain snow with some
higher valleys even having a shot for some snowfall. Any valley
snow will likely be in the Cascades and northern WA. Impacts for
the lower areas will be minimal as none of the snow is anticipated
to stick. Higher areas will see a good shot of accumulating snow.
Snow levels rise back to more seasonal levels come daytime
Wednesday leading to valley rain and higher mountain snow.

Winds in the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame look to remain
breezy due to a tightened surface pressure gradient. Currently no
major impacts are expected, but with the cooler daytime temps, the
breeze will make it feel quite cool. Temperatures for the middle
part of the week will remain well below normal with daytime highs
staying in the 50s for most valley locations. Also the sun will
likely be hard to come by as clouds will be prominent with the
system.

Wednesday night and early Thursday looks to feature a brief break
period from the widespread rain as weak ridging builds between
the exiting and next incoming system. The mentioned next system
looks to reach the Cascades Thursday evening before spilling over
on Friday and into the weekend. Detail will have to wait for this
system as models need to come into better agreement. Overall the
period looks to be rather active with widespread rain expected.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be
gusty winds impacting the terminals. Gusts between 25-28kts will
be possible through 02z at most locations. Winds will begin
weakening this afternoon and decrease near to below 10kts arnd
03z. Easterly winds will re-strengthen at KPUW aft 12z and remain
elevated through 18z. Another frontal system will approach the
region Saturday morning and track through during the afternoon
hours. A few sprinkles will be possible most terminals will
generally experience passing mid and high level clouds. Winds will
once again become gusty with the cold front passage aft 18z./sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  63  35  59  40  67 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  31  62  36  58  39  67 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Pullman        33  65  35  58  41  68 /   0  10  20   0   0  10
Lewiston       36  71  41  65  45  74 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       31  66  32  65  36  70 /  10  20  20  10  10  10
Sandpoint      28  61  36  58  36  64 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Kellogg        31  62  35  57  37  66 /  10  10  30  10  10  10
Moses Lake     32  68  38  66  43  72 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      37  64  42  66  47  68 /   0  20  10  10  10  10
Omak           29  63  35  65  40  67 /   0  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 181829
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1128 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a brief break in the Pacific storm train. A weaker
front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon and
night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, temperatures
will cool for the remainder of the week as another Pacific storm
moves into the area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: One last cluster of showers will push through
northeastern WA and the Nrn ID Panhandle then the atmosphere will
quickly stabilize promoting dry conditions region-wide. The
activity near Bonners Ferry earlier this morning was by far much
more intense and deeper in comparison the current showers
developing between Colville and Metaline Falls which are only
showing tops around 12K ft. Expect this activity to track to the
SE between now and 2PM. Ahead of this wave, scattered orographic
showers are developing between Coeur D Alene and Prichard but as
the winds increase and the boundary layer continues to mix/dry
out, I anticipate this activity to wane early afternoon as well.

We have adjusted temperatures down a bit for NE WA and Nrn ID to
account for the cloud cover and trends from current obs.
Otherwise, only small cosmetic changes were made to the remainder
of the forecast. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be
gusty winds impacting the terminals. Gusts between 25-28kts will
be possible through 02z at most locations. Winds will begin
weakening this afternoon and decrease near to below 10kts arnd
03z. Easterly winds will re-strengthen at KPUW aft 12z and remain
elevated through 18z. Another frontal system will approach the
region Saturday morning and track through during the afternoon
hours. A few sprinkles will be possible most terminals will
generally experience passing mid and high level clouds. Winds will
once again become gusty with the cold front passage aft 18z./sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  33  64  36  58  40 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  31  63  37  57  39 /  10  10  10  30  10  10
Pullman        53  33  66  35  57  41 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Lewiston       61  37  72  41  64  45 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       60  31  67  33  64  36 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      52  29  62  36  57  36 /  30  10  10  30  10  10
Kellogg        51  31  63  36  56  37 /  20  10  10  30  10  10
Moses Lake     64  31  69  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      62  39  65  42  66  47 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Omak           62  30  66  35  65  40 /   0   0  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 181827
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1127 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a brief break in the Pacific storm train. A weaker
front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday afternoon and
night with some showers across the north. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. After a warm and dry Monday, temperatures
will cool for the remainder of the week as another Pacific storm
moves into the area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: One last cluster of showers will push through
northeastern WA and the Nrn ID Panhandle then the atmosphere will
quickly stabilize promoting dry conditions region-wide. The
activity near Bonners Ferry earlier this morning was by far much
more intense and deeper in comparison the current showers
developing between Colville and Metaline Falls which are only
showing tops around 12K ft. Expect this activity to track to the
SE between now and 2PM. Ahead of this wave, scattered orographic
showers are developing between Coeur D Alene and Prichard but as
the winds increase and the boundary layer continues to mix/dry
out, I anticipate this activity to wane early afternoon as well.

We have adjusted temperatures down a bit for NE WA and Nrn ID to
account for the cloud cover and trends from current obs.
Otherwise, only small cosmetic changes were made to the remainder
of the forecast. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be
gusty winds impacting the terminals. Gusts between 25-28kts will
be possible through 02z at most locations. Winds will begin
weakening this afternoon and decrease near to below 10kts arnd
03z. Easterly winds will re-strengthen at KPUW aft 12z and remain
elevated through 18z. Another frontal system will approach the
region Saturday morning and track through during the afternoon
hours. A few sprinkles will be possible most terminals will
generally experience passing mid and high level clouds. Winds will
once again become gusty with the cold front passage aft 18z./sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  33  64  36  58  40 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  31  63  37  57  39 /  10  10  10  30  10  10
Pullman        53  33  66  35  57  41 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Lewiston       61  37  72  41  64  45 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       60  31  67  33  64  36 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      52  29  62  36  57  36 /  30  10  10  30  10  10
Kellogg        51  31  63  36  56  37 /  20  10  10  30  10  10
Moses Lake     64  31  69  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      62  39  65  42  66  47 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Omak           62  30  66  35  65  40 /   0   0  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






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