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000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240524
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to increase pops for some locations to the
south for rest of the night as the cluster of thunderstorms
currently working their way through Pullman must have some
dynamics associated with their continuation this evening. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms woking their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  70  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240524
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to increase pops for some locations to the
south for rest of the night as the cluster of thunderstorms
currently working their way through Pullman must have some
dynamics associated with their continuation this evening. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms woking their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  70  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 232126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231752
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1052 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  10  20  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  20  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231752
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1052 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The most immediate concern is the canopy of MVFR
stratus from KLWS north to KPUW...and just south of the Spokane
county line. This SW upslope stratus is visually transitioning to
more of a convective appearance on satellite, and in the process
of eroding on its periphery. Given the amnt of heating we expect
today, we don`t anticipate these MVFR ceilings to linger much
longer past 20-21z. The next issue will be the areal coverage of
any showers or thunder late afternoon into early evening. The best
chance will be in the Lewiston region, which includes the Nrn Blue
mtns and the Camas Prairie of Idaho. The isolated thunder will
dissipate by 03z.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  10  20  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  20  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
901 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
901 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
901 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: A few minor changes to todays fcst were
made...mainly to adjust sky cover. With the regional mosaic radar
loop showing a band of rain showers that have moved west of
Wenatchee and past the Cascade crest, we anticipate our next
round of pcpn to be diurnally driven as clearing skies work their
way west across the Columbia Basin. These clearing skies will
allow for better insolation and thus help to produce higher SBCAPE
by peak heating this afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave
trough (currently upstream near the BC coast) that will move south
across the region by tonight, it looks like it won`t have a
significant contribution synoptically for the thunder threat in
the Cascade we have for this afternoon. This will be an important
issue this evening and Sunday given the recent burn scar potential
for debris flow. As of now, we don`t anticipate an issues. We also
left thunder in the fcst for SE WA and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle
later today and this evening as the wave approaches and the sfc
remains uncapped. There`s sufficient convective inhibition across
NE Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
threat for today. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  20  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       83  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       84  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Isolated showers will linger near KEAT and KMWH early
this morning. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon over the higher terrain along the east
slopes of the northern Cascades, over the Northeast Blue Mtns and
over the southern and central Panhandle Mtns. Any storms that
develop over the Central Panhandle Mtns may impact KPUW and KLWS
TAF locations as storm motion will be to the west and southwest;
however, confidence is low since thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate quickly as they move off of the higher terrain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Additional update made this evening to remove the mention of
thunderstorms as the activity has moved southwest and out of the
forecast area. Also increased cloud cover as the mid and high
clouds associated with the ongoing convection that moved out of
the area is still spilling out to the northeast and over a good
portion of Eastern Washington and Southern Parts of the North
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Additional update made this evening to remove the mention of
thunderstorms as the activity has moved southwest and out of the
forecast area. Also increased cloud cover as the mid and high
clouds associated with the ongoing convection that moved out of
the area is still spilling out to the northeast and over a good
portion of Eastern Washington and Southern Parts of the North
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230317
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
817 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease pops north and east behind the
line of thunderstorms moving through the Columbia Basin this
evening. Additional update likely later once this line of
thunderstorms moves out of the area and/or diminishes tonight.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  50  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Marjority of thunderstorms on the radar this evening are
moving with a general storm track to the southwest at around 20
mph. With loss of peak heating and limited dynamics to support
forced convection the aviation forecasts show majority of
thunderstorm activity gone from most TAF sites after 2Z and from
just about everywhere at 9Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings primarily from
the rain shafts and the small hail from some of the storms. Wind
shifts common through this evening due to all the outflow
boundaries propagating out of all the thunderstorms. TAFS have no
mention of shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon as
considerably lesser convective activity is expected. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: We`ll be dealing with short-segment lines of
thunderstorms moving west off the higher terrain of N Idaho and
into Spokane and the Palouse. The other area of concern is the
potential for flash flooding/debris flows on recent 2013-2014
burn scars. So far most of these scars have been missed by the
heaviest rain rates in the Cascades. The Devels Elbow complex
south of Republic has, so far, received the most direct hit...but
calls to local authorities have yielded no reports of debris
flows. The CAPE/shear combo supports heavy downpours and small
hail into this evening with any thunderstorms. We`ll be doing
NOWCASTS, Facebook posts and Twitter updates when time allows.bz

Saturday through Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement of
where to track the upper level low that is moving down British
Columbia and into the Inland Northwest this weekend. The low now
doesn`t push into Washington until Sunday evening/Monday morning.
Until then...northeasterly flow into the northern Idaho Panhandle
and northeast Washington will keep conditions dry with mostly
clear skies. The main concern for showers and thunderstorms will
continue to remain across extreme southeast WA, the central ID
Panhandle and along the Cascades. Each afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will develop and then wane with the
setting sun in the evening. Isolated showers is possible through
the overnight and early morning hours for the aforementioned
areas. Given we are expecting less shower activity and clouds
Saturday and early Sunday, have increased max temps about 1-3
degrees. Sunday night/Monday the upper low will move into
Washington. There are some model differences of where the low goes
during the day on Monday. Nevertheless the chance of widespread
rain will increase. Monday looks to be the `crummiest` day of the
holiday weekend. Have lowered max temps a few degrees, as we
looked to be the outlier compared to other forecast models.
/Nisbet

Monday night through Friday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern with a mid-level low
bobbling about the northwest United States at least through
Wednesday. Thereafter models diverge, either holding the low near
the northern Rockies or showing a transition to a west-southwest
flow with a low migrating down the BC coast. Either way
instability blossoms each afternoon, in the form of expanding
CAPE. Precisely how much synoptic forcing there is and where it
will lay will come into more focus as models come into better
agreement. But for now look for a threat of showers and
thunderstorms expanding each afternoon, then dissipating but not
entirely ending for the night and morning hours. The threat will
be best throughout the region through Wednesday. Thereafter there
is some suggestion that the threat will retreat away from deeper
Columbia Basin toward Thursday and Friday. Any of these
showers/t-storms may contain the typical brief heavy rain and
perhaps some small hail and lightning, but given the more
convective nature of the system none of this is a definite for any
one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  82  52  80  53  73 /  10  10  10  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  80  53  80  52  71 /  20  10  10  20  30  50
Pullman        49  76  46  75  48  71 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       56  82  55  82  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20  30
Colville       53  86  54  81  51  73 /  20  10  10  30  30  70
Sandpoint      50  81  48  79  49  71 /  10  10  10  20  20  60
Kellogg        50  80  49  80  48  70 /  20  20  10  20  20  50
Moses Lake     56  86  55  83  54  80 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      59  85  59  81  57  79 /  50  10  10  20  20  10
Omak           53  87  53  83  52  77 /  30  10  10  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: With showers and isolated thunder now beginning to
develop over Ern Wa and N Idaho, we`ll trend steadily toward an
increasing areal coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. The
main threats will be heavy downpours and small hail. Gusty outflow
winds are not out of the question...around 30 kts. All storms will
move nearly due west. The main taf sites affected will be KLWS,
KPUW, KMWH, and KEAT. Though the current TAFS show VFR wx, it`s
likely that the localized heavy downpours will not only lower
ceilings close to MVFR, but will also restrict vsbys. Stay tuned
for TAF updates... BZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  40  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  60  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  40  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  60  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  40  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  60  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather pattern will see subtle
changes as we move into the holiday weekend, keeping a persistence
forecast with minor adjustments. The upper level pattern remain
diffuse and in chaos with broad trough across the western U.S.
Shortwaves embedded in the trough will provide the lift for
convection. While the main circulation lies over southern CA and
helps pump moisture up across the Rockies into the Pac NW, a
second circulation will be dropping down the BC coast. Even though
somewhat drier northeast flow resides over northeast Washington
and far northern Panhandle, pwats continue to be high, near an
inch, across the Cascades and southern Washington, similar to
yesterday, which will help fuel convection. In fact, yesterday`s
convection developed over southeast Washington and Blue mountains
and took a slow track westward toward the Cascades without any
real kicker. Anticipate similar conditions today, but possibly a
better chance of convection as the northern shortwave approaches.
As this feature arrives in northwest Washington this afternoon, it
will weaken but may provide enough lift to enhance convection in
the Cascades. Wet bulb zero heights will be approaching 10k while
cape values near 1000 j/kg in the Cascades, and even higher in the
Blue mountains by this afternoon. The instability values alone
would lean toward stronger thunderstorms will larger hail, but the
warmer atmosphere may lead to more heavy rain. Given the slow
steer flow and weak shear, would side with heavy rain and possible
flooding as the main impacts. Agree with the current flash
flooding watch for the northern Cascades given the many burn scars
for recent fires and any thunderstorm that sits over a burn area
too long may lead to issues. The Blue mountains area will most
likely see the stronger storms with both heavy rain and hail.
Anticipate the thunder threat to decrease by early evening and the
convection to wane overnight. By Saturday, the drier and more
stable over northeast Washington filters into the region as the
remnants of the shortwave side into Oregon. The bulk of mid/upper
level moisture sinks south of the region. May still see afternoon
convection, but current model runs paint less instability and
moisture over the Inland Northwest, although the areas of concern
will still be near the Cascade crest and the Blue mountains and
the southern ID panhandle. Temperatures were bumped on Saturday
following a more persistence forecast, although not as warm as
experienced yesterday. Expect the diurnally convection to decrease
by Saturday evening with light winds both at the surface and
aloft. /rfox

Sunday and Memorial Day: We should see a subtle change in the
pattern Sunday into Monday which has the potential to shift our
best chances for showers from our southern Panhandle and Cascade
zones to our northeast Washington and north Idaho zones. The
upper low which has been over southern California for the last
week is expected to migrate into the Central Rockies Sunday night
into Monday. A weak, slow moving trough is expected to descend
from British Columbia into western or central Washington Sunday
into Monday. This change in the upper pattern will bring a shift
in our storm steering flow from our current light easterly flow to
our more typical westerly flow by Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in northeast Washington and far north Idaho should
increase Sunday and Monday yielding higher surface based
instability in places like Colville, Republic, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. If the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian GEM hold true, our
best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will
be over the north Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands. For Monday
afternoon, the focus will shift into the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. The increased onshore flow Monday should
push high temperature down a few degrees and the increased west to
east pressure gradient should produce more wind (10-15mph out of
the west or southwest).

Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for showers Tuesday through
Thursday will largely vary on what happens to the upper low that
descends from B.C. on Monday. The GFS and Canadian models are very
slow to move this feature suggesting good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The ECMWF moves
the upper low out more quickly with less convection Wednesday and
Thursday. Our forecast was based on a troughy GFS ensemble mean.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vicnity of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more deveopment in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest. The
HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain of
the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        75  49  73  47  75  49 /  30  40  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       80  56  79  54  82  56 /  40  40  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        80  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     86  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      84  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  20  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather pattern will see subtle
changes as we move into the holiday weekend, keeping a persistence
forecast with minor adjustments. The upper level pattern remain
diffuse and in chaos with broad trough across the western U.S.
Shortwaves embedded in the trough will provide the lift for
convection. While the main circulation lies over southern CA and
helps pump moisture up across the Rockies into the Pac NW, a
second circulation will be dropping down the BC coast. Even though
somewhat drier northeast flow resides over northeast Washington
and far northern Panhandle, pwats continue to be high, near an
inch, across the Cascades and southern Washington, similar to
yesterday, which will help fuel convection. In fact, yesterday`s
convection developed over southeast Washington and Blue mountains
and took a slow track westward toward the Cascades without any
real kicker. Anticipate similar conditions today, but possibly a
better chance of convection as the northern shortwave approaches.
As this feature arrives in northwest Washington this afternoon, it
will weaken but may provide enough lift to enhance convection in
the Cascades. Wet bulb zero heights will be approaching 10k while
cape values near 1000 j/kg in the Cascades, and even higher in the
Blue mountains by this afternoon. The instability values alone
would lean toward stronger thunderstorms will larger hail, but the
warmer atmosphere may lead to more heavy rain. Given the slow
steer flow and weak shear, would side with heavy rain and possible
flooding as the main impacts. Agree with the current flash
flooding watch for the northern Cascades given the many burn scars
for recent fires and any thunderstorm that sits over a burn area
too long may lead to issues. The Blue mountains area will most
likely see the stronger storms with both heavy rain and hail.
Anticipate the thunder threat to decrease by early evening and the
convection to wane overnight. By Saturday, the drier and more
stable over northeast Washington filters into the region as the
remnants of the shortwave side into Oregon. The bulk of mid/upper
level moisture sinks south of the region. May still see afternoon
convection, but current model runs paint less instability and
moisture over the Inland Northwest, although the areas of concern
will still be near the Cascade crest and the Blue mountains and
the southern ID panhandle. Temperatures were bumped on Saturday
following a more persistence forecast, although not as warm as
experienced yesterday. Expect the diurnally convection to decrease
by Saturday evening with light winds both at the surface and
aloft. /rfox

Sunday and Memorial Day: We should see a subtle change in the
pattern Sunday into Monday which has the potential to shift our
best chances for showers from our southern Panhandle and Cascade
zones to our northeast Washington and north Idaho zones. The
upper low which has been over southern California for the last
week is expected to migrate into the Central Rockies Sunday night
into Monday. A weak, slow moving trough is expected to descend
from British Columbia into western or central Washington Sunday
into Monday. This change in the upper pattern will bring a shift
in our storm steering flow from our current light easterly flow to
our more typical westerly flow by Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in northeast Washington and far north Idaho should
increase Sunday and Monday yielding higher surface based
instability in places like Colville, Republic, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. If the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian GEM hold true, our
best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will
be over the north Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands. For Monday
afternoon, the focus will shift into the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. The increased onshore flow Monday should
push high temperature down a few degrees and the increased west to
east pressure gradient should produce more wind (10-15mph out of
the west or southwest).

Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for showers Tuesday through
Thursday will largely vary on what happens to the upper low that
descends from B.C. on Monday. The GFS and Canadian models are very
slow to move this feature suggesting good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The ECMWF moves
the upper low out more quickly with less convection Wednesday and
Thursday. Our forecast was based on a troughy GFS ensemble mean.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vicnity of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more deveopment in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest. The
HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain of
the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        75  49  73  47  75  49 /  30  40  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       80  56  79  54  82  56 /  40  40  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        80  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     86  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      84  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  20  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather pattern will see subtle
changes as we move into the holiday weekend, keeping a persistence
forecast with minor adjustments. The upper level pattern remain
diffuse and in chaos with broad trough across the western U.S.
Shortwaves embedded in the trough will provide the lift for
convection. While the main circulation lies over southern CA and
helps pump moisture up across the Rockies into the Pac NW, a
second circulation will be dropping down the BC coast. Even though
somewhat drier northeast flow resides over northeast Washington
and far northern Panhandle, pwats continue to be high, near an
inch, across the Cascades and southern Washington, similar to
yesterday, which will help fuel convection. In fact, yesterday`s
convection developed over southeast Washington and Blue mountains
and took a slow track westward toward the Cascades without any
real kicker. Anticipate similar conditions today, but possibly a
better chance of convection as the northern shortwave approaches.
As this feature arrives in northwest Washington this afternoon, it
will weaken but may provide enough lift to enhance convection in
the Cascades. Wet bulb zero heights will be approaching 10k while
cape values near 1000 j/kg in the Cascades, and even higher in the
Blue mountains by this afternoon. The instability values alone
would lean toward stronger thunderstorms will larger hail, but the
warmer atmosphere may lead to more heavy rain. Given the slow
steer flow and weak shear, would side with heavy rain and possible
flooding as the main impacts. Agree with the current flash
flooding watch for the northern Cascades given the many burn scars
for recent fires and any thunderstorm that sits over a burn area
too long may lead to issues. The Blue mountains area will most
likely see the stronger storms with both heavy rain and hail.
Anticipate the thunder threat to decrease by early evening and the
convection to wane overnight. By Saturday, the drier and more
stable over northeast Washington filters into the region as the
remnants of the shortwave side into Oregon. The bulk of mid/upper
level moisture sinks south of the region. May still see afternoon
convection, but current model runs paint less instability and
moisture over the Inland Northwest, although the areas of concern
will still be near the Cascade crest and the Blue mountains and
the southern ID panhandle. Temperatures were bumped on Saturday
following a more persistence forecast, although not as warm as
experienced yesterday. Expect the diurnally convection to decrease
by Saturday evening with light winds both at the surface and
aloft. /rfox

Sunday and Memorial Day: We should see a subtle change in the
pattern Sunday into Monday which has the potential to shift our
best chances for showers from our southern Panhandle and Cascade
zones to our northeast Washington and north Idaho zones. The
upper low which has been over southern California for the last
week is expected to migrate into the Central Rockies Sunday night
into Monday. A weak, slow moving trough is expected to descend
from British Columbia into western or central Washington Sunday
into Monday. This change in the upper pattern will bring a shift
in our storm steering flow from our current light easterly flow to
our more typical westerly flow by Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in northeast Washington and far north Idaho should
increase Sunday and Monday yielding higher surface based
instability in places like Colville, Republic, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. If the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian GEM hold true, our
best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will
be over the north Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands. For Monday
afternoon, the focus will shift into the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. The increased onshore flow Monday should
push high temperature down a few degrees and the increased west to
east pressure gradient should produce more wind (10-15mph out of
the west or southwest).

Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for showers Tuesday through
Thursday will largely vary on what happens to the upper low that
descends from B.C. on Monday. The GFS and Canadian models are very
slow to move this feature suggesting good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The ECMWF moves
the upper low out more quickly with less convection Wednesday and
Thursday. Our forecast was based on a troughy GFS ensemble mean.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vicnity of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more deveopment in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest. The
HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain of
the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        75  49  73  47  75  49 /  30  40  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       80  56  79  54  82  56 /  40  40  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        80  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     86  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      84  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  20  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather pattern will see subtle
changes as we move into the holiday weekend, keeping a persistence
forecast with minor adjustments. The upper level pattern remain
diffuse and in chaos with broad trough across the western U.S.
Shortwaves embedded in the trough will provide the lift for
convection. While the main circulation lies over southern CA and
helps pump moisture up across the Rockies into the Pac NW, a
second circulation will be dropping down the BC coast. Even though
somewhat drier northeast flow resides over northeast Washington
and far northern Panhandle, pwats continue to be high, near an
inch, across the Cascades and southern Washington, similar to
yesterday, which will help fuel convection. In fact, yesterday`s
convection developed over southeast Washington and Blue mountains
and took a slow track westward toward the Cascades without any
real kicker. Anticipate similar conditions today, but possibly a
better chance of convection as the northern shortwave approaches.
As this feature arrives in northwest Washington this afternoon, it
will weaken but may provide enough lift to enhance convection in
the Cascades. Wet bulb zero heights will be approaching 10k while
cape values near 1000 j/kg in the Cascades, and even higher in the
Blue mountains by this afternoon. The instability values alone
would lean toward stronger thunderstorms will larger hail, but the
warmer atmosphere may lead to more heavy rain. Given the slow
steer flow and weak shear, would side with heavy rain and possible
flooding as the main impacts. Agree with the current flash
flooding watch for the northern Cascades given the many burn scars
for recent fires and any thunderstorm that sits over a burn area
too long may lead to issues. The Blue mountains area will most
likely see the stronger storms with both heavy rain and hail.
Anticipate the thunder threat to decrease by early evening and the
convection to wane overnight. By Saturday, the drier and more
stable over northeast Washington filters into the region as the
remnants of the shortwave side into Oregon. The bulk of mid/upper
level moisture sinks south of the region. May still see afternoon
convection, but current model runs paint less instability and
moisture over the Inland Northwest, although the areas of concern
will still be near the Cascade crest and the Blue mountains and
the southern ID panhandle. Temperatures were bumped on Saturday
following a more persistence forecast, although not as warm as
experienced yesterday. Expect the diurnally convection to decrease
by Saturday evening with light winds both at the surface and
aloft. /rfox

Sunday and Memorial Day: We should see a subtle change in the
pattern Sunday into Monday which has the potential to shift our
best chances for showers from our southern Panhandle and Cascade
zones to our northeast Washington and north Idaho zones. The
upper low which has been over southern California for the last
week is expected to migrate into the Central Rockies Sunday night
into Monday. A weak, slow moving trough is expected to descend
from British Columbia into western or central Washington Sunday
into Monday. This change in the upper pattern will bring a shift
in our storm steering flow from our current light easterly flow to
our more typical westerly flow by Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in northeast Washington and far north Idaho should
increase Sunday and Monday yielding higher surface based
instability in places like Colville, Republic, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. If the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian GEM hold true, our
best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will
be over the north Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands. For Monday
afternoon, the focus will shift into the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. The increased onshore flow Monday should
push high temperature down a few degrees and the increased west to
east pressure gradient should produce more wind (10-15mph out of
the west or southwest).

Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for showers Tuesday through
Thursday will largely vary on what happens to the upper low that
descends from B.C. on Monday. The GFS and Canadian models are very
slow to move this feature suggesting good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The ECMWF moves
the upper low out more quickly with less convection Wednesday and
Thursday. Our forecast was based on a troughy GFS ensemble mean.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        75  49  73  47  75  49 /  30  40  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       80  56  79  54  82  56 /  40  40  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        80  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     86  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      84  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  20  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather pattern will see subtle
changes as we move into the holiday weekend, keeping a persistence
forecast with minor adjustments. The upper level pattern remain
diffuse and in chaos with broad trough across the western U.S.
Shortwaves embedded in the trough will provide the lift for
convection. While the main circulation lies over southern CA and
helps pump moisture up across the Rockies into the Pac NW, a
second circulation will be dropping down the BC coast. Even though
somewhat drier northeast flow resides over northeast Washington
and far northern Panhandle, pwats continue to be high, near an
inch, across the Cascades and southern Washington, similar to
yesterday, which will help fuel convection. In fact, yesterday`s
convection developed over southeast Washington and Blue mountains
and took a slow track westward toward the Cascades without any
real kicker. Anticipate similar conditions today, but possibly a
better chance of convection as the northern shortwave approaches.
As this feature arrives in northwest Washington this afternoon, it
will weaken but may provide enough lift to enhance convection in
the Cascades. Wet bulb zero heights will be approaching 10k while
cape values near 1000 j/kg in the Cascades, and even higher in the
Blue mountains by this afternoon. The instability values alone
would lean toward stronger thunderstorms will larger hail, but the
warmer atmosphere may lead to more heavy rain. Given the slow
steer flow and weak shear, would side with heavy rain and possible
flooding as the main impacts. Agree with the current flash
flooding watch for the northern Cascades given the many burn scars
for recent fires and any thunderstorm that sits over a burn area
too long may lead to issues. The Blue mountains area will most
likely see the stronger storms with both heavy rain and hail.
Anticipate the thunder threat to decrease by early evening and the
convection to wane overnight. By Saturday, the drier and more
stable over northeast Washington filters into the region as the
remnants of the shortwave side into Oregon. The bulk of mid/upper
level moisture sinks south of the region. May still see afternoon
convection, but current model runs paint less instability and
moisture over the Inland Northwest, although the areas of concern
will still be near the Cascade crest and the Blue mountains and
the southern ID panhandle. Temperatures were bumped on Saturday
following a more persistence forecast, although not as warm as
experienced yesterday. Expect the diurnally convection to decrease
by Saturday evening with light winds both at the surface and
aloft. /rfox

Sunday and Memorial Day: We should see a subtle change in the
pattern Sunday into Monday which has the potential to shift our
best chances for showers from our southern Panhandle and Cascade
zones to our northeast Washington and north Idaho zones. The
upper low which has been over southern California for the last
week is expected to migrate into the Central Rockies Sunday night
into Monday. A weak, slow moving trough is expected to descend
from British Columbia into western or central Washington Sunday
into Monday. This change in the upper pattern will bring a shift
in our storm steering flow from our current light easterly flow to
our more typical westerly flow by Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in northeast Washington and far north Idaho should
increase Sunday and Monday yielding higher surface based
instability in places like Colville, Republic, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. If the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian GEM hold true, our
best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will
be over the north Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands. For Monday
afternoon, the focus will shift into the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. The increased onshore flow Monday should
push high temperature down a few degrees and the increased west to
east pressure gradient should produce more wind (10-15mph out of
the west or southwest).

Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for showers Tuesday through
Thursday will largely vary on what happens to the upper low that
descends from B.C. on Monday. The GFS and Canadian models are very
slow to move this feature suggesting good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The ECMWF moves
the upper low out more quickly with less convection Wednesday and
Thursday. Our forecast was based on a troughy GFS ensemble mean.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        75  49  73  47  75  49 /  30  40  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       80  56  79  54  82  56 /  40  40  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        80  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     86  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      84  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  20  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather pattern will see subtle
changes as we move into the holiday weekend, keeping a persistence
forecast with minor adjustments. The upper level pattern remain
diffuse and in chaos with broad trough across the western U.S.
Shortwaves embedded in the trough will provide the lift for
convection. While the main circulation lies over southern CA and
helps pump moisture up across the Rockies into the Pac NW, a
second circulation will be dropping down the BC coast. Even though
somewhat drier northeast flow resides over northeast Washington
and far northern Panhandle, pwats continue to be high, near an
inch, across the Cascades and southern Washington, similar to
yesterday, which will help fuel convection. In fact, yesterday`s
convection developed over southeast Washington and Blue mountains
and took a slow track westward toward the Cascades without any
real kicker. Anticipate similar conditions today, but possibly a
better chance of convection as the northern shortwave approaches.
As this feature arrives in northwest Washington this afternoon, it
will weaken but may provide enough lift to enhance convection in
the Cascades. Wet bulb zero heights will be approaching 10k while
cape values near 1000 j/kg in the Cascades, and even higher in the
Blue mountains by this afternoon. The instability values alone
would lean toward stronger thunderstorms will larger hail, but the
warmer atmosphere may lead to more heavy rain. Given the slow
steer flow and weak shear, would side with heavy rain and possible
flooding as the main impacts. Agree with the current flash
flooding watch for the northern Cascades given the many burn scars
for recent fires and any thunderstorm that sits over a burn area
too long may lead to issues. The Blue mountains area will most
likely see the stronger storms with both heavy rain and hail.
Anticipate the thunder threat to decrease by early evening and the
convection to wane overnight. By Saturday, the drier and more
stable over northeast Washington filters into the region as the
remnants of the shortwave side into Oregon. The bulk of mid/upper
level moisture sinks south of the region. May still see afternoon
convection, but current model runs paint less instability and
moisture over the Inland Northwest, although the areas of concern
will still be near the Cascade crest and the Blue mountains and
the southern ID panhandle. Temperatures were bumped on Saturday
following a more persistence forecast, although not as warm as
experienced yesterday. Expect the diurnally convection to decrease
by Saturday evening with light winds both at the surface and
aloft. /rfox

Sunday and Memorial Day: We should see a subtle change in the
pattern Sunday into Monday which has the potential to shift our
best chances for showers from our southern Panhandle and Cascade
zones to our northeast Washington and north Idaho zones. The
upper low which has been over southern California for the last
week is expected to migrate into the Central Rockies Sunday night
into Monday. A weak, slow moving trough is expected to descend
from British Columbia into western or central Washington Sunday
into Monday. This change in the upper pattern will bring a shift
in our storm steering flow from our current light easterly flow to
our more typical westerly flow by Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in northeast Washington and far north Idaho should
increase Sunday and Monday yielding higher surface based
instability in places like Colville, Republic, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. If the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian GEM hold true, our
best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will
be over the north Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands. For Monday
afternoon, the focus will shift into the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. The increased onshore flow Monday should
push high temperature down a few degrees and the increased west to
east pressure gradient should produce more wind (10-15mph out of
the west or southwest).

Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for showers Tuesday through
Thursday will largely vary on what happens to the upper low that
descends from B.C. on Monday. The GFS and Canadian models are very
slow to move this feature suggesting good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The ECMWF moves
the upper low out more quickly with less convection Wednesday and
Thursday. Our forecast was based on a troughy GFS ensemble mean.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        75  49  73  47  75  49 /  30  40  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       80  56  79  54  82  56 /  40  40  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        80  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     86  56  84  55  83  54 /  20  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      84  59  83  58  82  57 /  50  30  20  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220500
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by Friday
into Monday as a weak low pressure system drops into northwest
Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce locally
heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The weather remains
showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each day through next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite composites shows a closed low off the southern
California coast, with another closed low near the Central British
Columbia coast. This pattern is drawing up quite a bit of mid
level moisture across much of the western US...including southeast
Washington extending northwest through the Columbia basin and the
Washington Cascades. For the remainder of tonight models show
some isolated/scattered shower activity to persist in the same
aformentioned areas as moisture continues to get drawn up into the
area. Mid level instability with MUCAPE values around 200-400 J/KG
could also result in a few stray thunderstorms mainly in the
evening as the instability begins to decrease during the overnight
hours. Conditions will remain dry across Northeast Washington into
the North Idaho Panhandle. The forecast overall looks good and do
not plan any major updates for the rest of tonight.

For tomorrow the concern for flash flooding in the Cascades
remains valid with slow moving wet thunderstorms expected.
A flash flood watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon and
evening.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  20  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  20  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /  10  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /   0  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  20  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220500
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by Friday
into Monday as a weak low pressure system drops into northwest
Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce locally
heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The weather remains
showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each day through next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite composites shows a closed low off the southern
California coast, with another closed low near the Central British
Columbia coast. This pattern is drawing up quite a bit of mid
level moisture across much of the western US...including southeast
Washington extending northwest through the Columbia basin and the
Washington Cascades. For the remainder of tonight models show
some isolated/scattered shower activity to persist in the same
aformentioned areas as moisture continues to get drawn up into the
area. Mid level instability with MUCAPE values around 200-400 J/KG
could also result in a few stray thunderstorms mainly in the
evening as the instability begins to decrease during the overnight
hours. Conditions will remain dry across Northeast Washington into
the North Idaho Panhandle. The forecast overall looks good and do
not plan any major updates for the rest of tonight.

For tomorrow the concern for flash flooding in the Cascades
remains valid with slow moving wet thunderstorms expected.
A flash flood watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon and
evening.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  20  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  20  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /  10  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /   0  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  20  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220500
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by Friday
into Monday as a weak low pressure system drops into northwest
Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce locally
heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The weather remains
showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each day through next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite composites shows a closed low off the southern
California coast, with another closed low near the Central British
Columbia coast. This pattern is drawing up quite a bit of mid
level moisture across much of the western US...including southeast
Washington extending northwest through the Columbia basin and the
Washington Cascades. For the remainder of tonight models show
some isolated/scattered shower activity to persist in the same
aformentioned areas as moisture continues to get drawn up into the
area. Mid level instability with MUCAPE values around 200-400 J/KG
could also result in a few stray thunderstorms mainly in the
evening as the instability begins to decrease during the overnight
hours. Conditions will remain dry across Northeast Washington into
the North Idaho Panhandle. The forecast overall looks good and do
not plan any major updates for the rest of tonight.

For tomorrow the concern for flash flooding in the Cascades
remains valid with slow moving wet thunderstorms expected.
A flash flood watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon and
evening.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  20  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  20  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /  10  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /   0  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  20  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 220500
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by Friday
into Monday as a weak low pressure system drops into northwest
Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce locally
heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The weather remains
showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each day through next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite composites shows a closed low off the southern
California coast, with another closed low near the Central British
Columbia coast. This pattern is drawing up quite a bit of mid
level moisture across much of the western US...including southeast
Washington extending northwest through the Columbia basin and the
Washington Cascades. For the remainder of tonight models show
some isolated/scattered shower activity to persist in the same
aformentioned areas as moisture continues to get drawn up into the
area. Mid level instability with MUCAPE values around 200-400 J/KG
could also result in a few stray thunderstorms mainly in the
evening as the instability begins to decrease during the overnight
hours. Conditions will remain dry across Northeast Washington into
the North Idaho Panhandle. The forecast overall looks good and do
not plan any major updates for the rest of tonight.

For tomorrow the concern for flash flooding in the Cascades
remains valid with slow moving wet thunderstorms expected.
A flash flood watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon and
evening.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  20  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  20  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /  10  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /   0  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  20  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 220238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
738 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and in North
Central Washington. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system drops
into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated based on current radar and lightning
trends. Storms over southeast Washington and the Camas Prairie
have weakened considerably this evening due to a rain cooled air
mass from storms that went through earlier today. Meanwhile around
the Wenatchee area thunderstorms have blossomed with more CAPE to
work with with temperatures in the low 80s and dew points in the
mid 40s this evening. This activity is also expected to begin to
decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating although
enough mid level instability is present that a few storms could
linger past sunset as the thunderstorms around Wenatchee continue
the slow march towards the northwest. Another small cluster of
showers between Omak and Republic with a few lightning strikes
will also wind down this evening but may linger here past sunset
as well given the mid level instability in place.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle as
well as near the Cascade crest and moisture and instability feed
into the region courtesy of a closed low off the California coast.
KPUW and KLWS are most likely to be impacted by storms. Thunderstorms
should diminish after 3-5z although showers may continue with the
HRRR and GFS showing moisture continuing to feed into SE
Washington overnight. Drier air at the surface from GEG-KCOE
northward should keep showers or storms from impacting these TAF
sites. A few showers are also possible around KMWH and KEAT. Gusty
outflow winds will be possible with storms through early this
evening. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  20  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  20  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /  10  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /   0  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  30  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  40  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 220238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
738 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and in North
Central Washington. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system drops
into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated based on current radar and lightning
trends. Storms over southeast Washington and the Camas Prairie
have weakened considerably this evening due to a rain cooled air
mass from storms that went through earlier today. Meanwhile around
the Wenatchee area thunderstorms have blossomed with more CAPE to
work with with temperatures in the low 80s and dew points in the
mid 40s this evening. This activity is also expected to begin to
decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating although
enough mid level instability is present that a few storms could
linger past sunset as the thunderstorms around Wenatchee continue
the slow march towards the northwest. Another small cluster of
showers between Omak and Republic with a few lightning strikes
will also wind down this evening but may linger here past sunset
as well given the mid level instability in place.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle as
well as near the Cascade crest and moisture and instability feed
into the region courtesy of a closed low off the California coast.
KPUW and KLWS are most likely to be impacted by storms. Thunderstorms
should diminish after 3-5z although showers may continue with the
HRRR and GFS showing moisture continuing to feed into SE
Washington overnight. Drier air at the surface from GEG-KCOE
northward should keep showers or storms from impacting these TAF
sites. A few showers are also possible around KMWH and KEAT. Gusty
outflow winds will be possible with storms through early this
evening. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  20  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  20  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /  10  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /   0  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  30  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  40  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 212351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle as
well as near the Cascade crest and moisture and instability feed
into the region courtesy of a closed low off the California coast.
KPUW and KLWS are most likely to be impacted by storms. Thunderstorms
should diminish after 3-5z although showers may continue with the
HRRR and GFS showing moisture continuing to feed into SE
Washington overnight. Drier air at the surface from GEG-KCOE
northward should keep showers or storms from impacting these TAF
sites. A few showers are also possible around KMWH and KEAT. Gusty
outflow winds will be possible with storms through early this
evening. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 212351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle as
well as near the Cascade crest and moisture and instability feed
into the region courtesy of a closed low off the California coast.
KPUW and KLWS are most likely to be impacted by storms. Thunderstorms
should diminish after 3-5z although showers may continue with the
HRRR and GFS showing moisture continuing to feed into SE
Washington overnight. Drier air at the surface from GEG-KCOE
northward should keep showers or storms from impacting these TAF
sites. A few showers are also possible around KMWH and KEAT. Gusty
outflow winds will be possible with storms through early this
evening. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 212351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle as
well as near the Cascade crest and moisture and instability feed
into the region courtesy of a closed low off the California coast.
KPUW and KLWS are most likely to be impacted by storms. Thunderstorms
should diminish after 3-5z although showers may continue with the
HRRR and GFS showing moisture continuing to feed into SE
Washington overnight. Drier air at the surface from GEG-KCOE
northward should keep showers or storms from impacting these TAF
sites. A few showers are also possible around KMWH and KEAT. Gusty
outflow winds will be possible with storms through early this
evening. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 212351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle as
well as near the Cascade crest and moisture and instability feed
into the region courtesy of a closed low off the California coast.
KPUW and KLWS are most likely to be impacted by storms. Thunderstorms
should diminish after 3-5z although showers may continue with the
HRRR and GFS showing moisture continuing to feed into SE
Washington overnight. Drier air at the surface from GEG-KCOE
northward should keep showers or storms from impacting these TAF
sites. A few showers are also possible around KMWH and KEAT. Gusty
outflow winds will be possible with storms through early this
evening. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 212151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 212151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 212151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 212151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild, unsettled weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest through the weekend. Initially tonight much of
northeast Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, while
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday into Monday as a weak low pressure system
drops into northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The
weather remains showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each
day through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Upper level low pressure system that is currently in
British Columbia will continue to elongate and stretch to the
south, creating southeasterly flow aloft across the Inland
Northwest. Precipitable water values for Spokane from this
mornings sounding showed values at 129% of normal. The main
moisture axis is further to the south and west of Spokane, and
thus that is where our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently
residing over the Central ID Panhandle Mountains, Camas Prairie
west into the Blue Mountains and the Walla Walla area, as well as
stuff beginning to fire off in the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. These will be slow moving storms with heavy
rain, small hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Models
are doing okay with the showers...however they do not show the
stuff currently occurring over Shoshone County. Models are
suggesting a bit of a lull during the overnight hours tonight, so
expect thunder to wane with the setting sun.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over much of the
same area as today. The main concern for heaviest rain will be
from the Camas Prairie to the Blue Mountains and along the
Cascades in the afternoon hours. Areas north and east of Spokane
should remain out of the action during this period. Given the
easterly trajectory of the cells, the fact that they will be slow
moving and producing heavy rain with them, have decided to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for the Cascades Friday from 1pm to 8pm. Main
concern will be heavy rain in the mountains with the potential of
flash flooding or debris flows. Think most cells will develop west
of the burn scars of 2014, but cannot completely rule that out.
/Nisbet


Fri Nt through Mon: Fri Nt will be a carry-over from the showers
and thunder threat Fri afternoon, as the first weak low shears and
digs south through Oregon. In its wake we`ll have to deal with a
stronger cyclone moving SE down the BC coast and into Wa by Mon.
There are significant enough differences between the GFS and
ECMWF...with the ECMWF taking the low across the Columbia Basin,
with the GFS keeping it across Wrn Wa. This has huge implications
if the ECMWF turns out to be the more correct guidance as it
develops a modest trowal structure and "comma head" around the
upper low that would produce the heaviest pcpn along the Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands. N Idaho should be hit with pcpn along the
frontal boundary...both Mon and Tues. Pcpn amnts between 0.25 and
0.75 inches in the Cascades with much lesser amnts for the Idaho
Panhandle. bz

Monday night through Thursday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Most
models keep the region in a weak flow pattern, with a mid-level
low bobbling about the northwest United States. Precisely where
the low resides and where it tracks is where models diverge.
Loosely though, they place it near western to central WA at the
period`s start and edge it east through the period. Instability
blossoms each afternoon, with expanding CAPE. Precisely how much
synoptic forcing there is and where it lays will come into more
focus as models come into better agreement. But for now, look for
a threat of showers and thunderstorms expanding each afternoon,
and dissipating (though not ending entirely) for the night and
morning hours. Locations that will have a higher threat will be
around and in the mountains and secondarily along and north of
Highway 2. But just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance in the afternoon/evening hours. Any of these may contain
the typical brief heavy rain and maybe some small hail and
lightning, but given the more convective nature of the system none
of this is a definite for any one location. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  80  52  72  47  76 /  10  10  30  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  72  48  76 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Pullman        50  75  47  67  43  70 /  60  30  50  40  40  40
Lewiston       58  79  54  73  52  77 /  60  40  60  50  40  30
Colville       52  84  53  80  50  79 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Sandpoint      47  80  48  75  47  76 /  10  10  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        49  79  49  72  45  76 /  10  20  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     55  85  52  76  50  76 /  20  30  30  30  40  30
Wenatchee      60  82  56  76  55  76 /  20  50  40  50  30  30
Omak           52  86  54  79  52  77 /  10  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211943 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1243 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue over
the Inland Northwest through the weekend. While much of northeast
Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, scattered showers and
a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday as a weak low pressure system drops into
northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rain near the Cascades.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across portions
of the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie and southern Shoshone
County. The cells are moving very slowly to the northwest. Expect
these showers and thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon
hours across these areas and developing into the Palouse, southern
Basin and the Cascades. Very heavy rain will be the main impact
with these storms as well as frequent cloud to ground lightning.
/Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  53  80  52  72  47 /  10  10  10  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  79  51  80  51  72  48 /  10  10  10  20  30  30
Pullman        76  50  75  47  67  43 /  60  50  30  50  40  40
Lewiston       81  58  79  54  73  52 /  50  40  40  60  50  40
Colville       85  52  84  53  80  50 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      79  47  80  48  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  30  20
Kellogg        77  49  79  49  72  45 /  30  10  20  30  40  40
Moses Lake     84  55  85  52  76  50 /  10  20  30  30  30  40
Wenatchee      84  60  82  56  76  55 /  20  20  50  40  50  30
Omak           85  52  86  54  79  52 /  10  10  30  30  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211943 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1243 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue over
the Inland Northwest through the weekend. While much of northeast
Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, scattered showers and
a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday as a weak low pressure system drops into
northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rain near the Cascades.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across portions
of the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie and southern Shoshone
County. The cells are moving very slowly to the northwest. Expect
these showers and thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon
hours across these areas and developing into the Palouse, southern
Basin and the Cascades. Very heavy rain will be the main impact
with these storms as well as frequent cloud to ground lightning.
/Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  53  80  52  72  47 /  10  10  10  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  79  51  80  51  72  48 /  10  10  10  20  30  30
Pullman        76  50  75  47  67  43 /  60  50  30  50  40  40
Lewiston       81  58  79  54  73  52 /  50  40  40  60  50  40
Colville       85  52  84  53  80  50 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      79  47  80  48  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  30  20
Kellogg        77  49  79  49  72  45 /  30  10  20  30  40  40
Moses Lake     84  55  85  52  76  50 /  10  20  30  30  30  40
Wenatchee      84  60  82  56  76  55 /  20  20  50  40  50  30
Omak           85  52  86  54  79  52 /  10  10  30  30  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 211943 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1243 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue over
the Inland Northwest through the weekend. While much of northeast
Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, scattered showers and
a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday as a weak low pressure system drops into
northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rain near the Cascades.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across portions
of the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie and southern Shoshone
County. The cells are moving very slowly to the northwest. Expect
these showers and thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon
hours across these areas and developing into the Palouse, southern
Basin and the Cascades. Very heavy rain will be the main impact
with these storms as well as frequent cloud to ground lightning.
/Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  53  80  52  72  47 /  10  10  10  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  79  51  80  51  72  48 /  10  10  10  20  30  30
Pullman        76  50  75  47  67  43 /  60  50  30  50  40  40
Lewiston       81  58  79  54  73  52 /  50  40  40  60  50  40
Colville       85  52  84  53  80  50 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      79  47  80  48  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  30  20
Kellogg        77  49  79  49  72  45 /  30  10  20  30  40  40
Moses Lake     84  55  85  52  76  50 /  10  20  30  30  30  40
Wenatchee      84  60  82  56  76  55 /  20  20  50  40  50  30
Omak           85  52  86  54  79  52 /  10  10  30  30  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 211943 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1243 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue over
the Inland Northwest through the weekend. While much of northeast
Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, scattered showers and
a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday as a weak low pressure system drops into
northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rain near the Cascades.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across portions
of the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie and southern Shoshone
County. The cells are moving very slowly to the northwest. Expect
these showers and thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon
hours across these areas and developing into the Palouse, southern
Basin and the Cascades. Very heavy rain will be the main impact
with these storms as well as frequent cloud to ground lightning.
/Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  53  80  52  72  47 /  10  10  10  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  79  51  80  51  72  48 /  10  10  10  20  30  30
Pullman        76  50  75  47  67  43 /  60  50  30  50  40  40
Lewiston       81  58  79  54  73  52 /  50  40  40  60  50  40
Colville       85  52  84  53  80  50 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      79  47  80  48  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  30  20
Kellogg        77  49  79  49  72  45 /  30  10  20  30  40  40
Moses Lake     84  55  85  52  76  50 /  10  20  30  30  30  40
Wenatchee      84  60  82  56  76  55 /  20  20  50  40  50  30
Omak           85  52  86  54  79  52 /  10  10  30  30  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211816
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1116 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue over
the Inland Northwest through the weekend. While much of northeast
Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, scattered showers and
a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday as a weak low pressure system drops into
northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rain near the Cascades.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: The upper level pattern will remain weak and
non-distinct across the Inland Northwest, driven mostly by diurnal
convection. A broad trough will remain across the West with
embedded circulations. The main circulation lies over California,
keeping a light easterly and somewhat moist flow across southern
Washington and the adjacent portions of Idaho. Meanwhile, a drier
and more stable northeast flow will be found across the northern
Washington and the far northern Panhandle. A surface low pressure
trough will be over the Columbia Basin, while the winds remain
light and mainly diurnally driven. Surface based instability will
increase this afternoon and Thinking the chances will remamin south
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor.evening with main focus lying over the
Blue mountains, and then spreading out into the southern Panhandle
and central Cascades, primarily along and south of I-90. This is
slightly further north then seen during Wednesday afternoon, and
the convection appeared to be minor. So continued the chance for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms with a slow steering flow from
east to west. Pwats will rise to near an inch across southern
Washington and with the slow movement, anticipate the main concern
will be heavy downpours under the main cells and ponding of water.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer than seen yesterday with
valleys approaching to into the lower 80s by this afternoon, while
overnight lows remain in the 50s. /rfox.

Friday through Wednesday...There is a great deal of uncertainty
embedded within the forecast for the next week. There exists a
very weak field of motion gelatinously oozing around the
troposphere of western North America with a number of weak
circulations that are poorly sensed and inconsistently progged by
the major medium range model guidance. The forecast will be based
on an overall concept of a continuing weak but moist and unstable
flow regime continuing over the region as is expected with a major
blocking pattern such as has been witnessed over the past week.

That having been said...where loose model agreement exist suggests
that Friday afternoon and evening will present a risk of
significant thunderstorm activity concentrated over the Cascades
and the southeast zones...with a smaller but still present threat
over the rest of the forecast area. This is the result of a weak
upper low pressure currently visible on satellite near the Queen
Charlotte islands dropping down the coast and promoting some weak
dynamic forcing over the Cascades to exploit a very moist air
mass and expected surface based instability of up to 1000 J/Kg in
a continued warmer than normal afternoon boundary layer air mass.
These storms will be slow movers and potentially heavy rainers so
flash flooding on recent burn scars may be an issue on Friday.

The Memorial Day Weekend is the next critical period to address.
The latest models are coming into some loose agreement in
transporting the first upper low to the south of the
region...sparing the forecast area from a wet beginning to the
holiday weekend as it`s stratiform deformation band sets up to
the south over Oregon on Saturday. But...a second upper low may
emerge from the Queen Charlotte nursery and follow the track of
the first...providing more impetus for at least isolated to
scattered thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. The best bet at this
time...with guarded confidence...is that the weekend and into
Monday will feature a threat of hit-and-miss showers and
thunderstorms each day with substantial sunbreaks and near normal
temperatures. The mountainous areas will be at highest risk for
daily thunderstorms with the deep basin the lowest threat.

Beyond Monday uncertainty and low confidence continues. Where the
latest GFS and ECMWF models agree is on the second upper low
continuing to lurk over or near the northwestern US...refusing to
follow it`s predecessor into the Great Basin. This suggest a
continuing unsettled troffy pattern with a threat of at least
hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
with temperatures remaining near seasonal normal or slightly above
normal. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  55  80  52  72  47 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  79  52  79  51  72  48 /  10  10  20  20  30  30
Pullman        76  50  74  47  67  43 /  40  40  30  50  40  40
Lewiston       81  58  79  54  73  52 /  40  40  40  60  50  40
Colville       85  50  84  53  80  50 /   0   0  10  10  30  20
Sandpoint      79  47  80  48  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  30  20
Kellogg        77  49  78  49  72  45 /  20  20  20  30  40  40
Moses Lake     84  56  83  52  76  50 /  10  20  30  30  30  40
Wenatchee      84  60  81  56  76  55 /  20  20  50  40  50  30
Omak           85  53  85  54  79  52 /  10  10  30  30  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 211816
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1116 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue over
the Inland Northwest through the weekend. While much of northeast
Washington and north Idaho will remain dry, scattered showers and
a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
southern Washington, the southern Idaho panhandle and near the
Cascade crest. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase by Friday as a weak low pressure system drops into
northwest Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rain near the Cascades.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: The upper level pattern will remain weak and
non-distinct across the Inland Northwest, driven mostly by diurnal
convection. A broad trough will remain across the West with
embedded circulations. The main circulation lies over California,
keeping a light easterly and somewhat moist flow across southern
Washington and the adjacent portions of Idaho. Meanwhile, a drier
and more stable northeast flow will be found across the northern
Washington and the far northern Panhandle. A surface low pressure
trough will be over the Columbia Basin, while the winds remain
light and mainly diurnally driven. Surface based instability will
increase this afternoon and Thinking the chances will remamin south
of the KGEG-KCOE corridor.evening with main focus lying over the
Blue mountains, and then spreading out into the southern Panhandle
and central Cascades, primarily along and south of I-90. This is
slightly further north then seen during Wednesday afternoon, and
the convection appeared to be minor. So continued the chance for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms with a slow steering flow from
east to west. Pwats will rise to near an inch across southern
Washington and with the slow movement, anticipate the main concern
will be heavy downpours under the main cells and ponding of water.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer than seen yesterday with
valleys approaching to into the lower 80s by this afternoon, while
overnight lows remain in the 50s. /rfox.

Friday through Wednesday...There is a great deal of uncertainty
embedded within the forecast for the next week. There exists a
very weak field of motion gelatinously oozing around the
troposphere of western North America with a number of weak
circulations that are poorly sensed and inconsistently progged by
the major medium range model guidance. The forecast will be based
on an overall concept of a continuing weak but moist and unstable
flow regime continuing over the region as is expected with a major
blocking pattern such as has been witnessed over the past week.

That having been said...where loose model agreement exist suggests
that Friday afternoon and evening will present a risk of
significant thunderstorm activity concentrated over the Cascades
and the southeast zones...with a smaller but still present threat
over the rest of the forecast area. This is the result of a weak
upper low pressure currently visible on satellite near the Queen
Charlotte islands dropping down the coast and promoting some weak
dynamic forcing over the Cascades to exploit a very moist air
mass and expected surface based instability of up to 1000 J/Kg in
a continued warmer than normal afternoon boundary layer air mass.
These storms will be slow movers and potentially heavy rainers so
flash flooding on recent burn scars may be an issue on Friday.

The Memorial Day Weekend is the next critical period to address.
The latest models are coming into some loose agreement in
transporting the first upper low to the south of the
region...sparing the forecast area from a wet beginning to the
holiday weekend as it`s stratiform deformation band sets up to
the south over Oregon on Saturday. But...a second upper low may
emerge from the Queen Charlotte nursery and follow the track of
the first...providing more impetus for at least isolated to
scattered thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. The best bet at this
time...with guarded confidence...is that the weekend and into
Monday will feature a threat of hit-and-miss showers and
thunderstorms each day with substantial sunbreaks and near normal
temperatures. The mountainous areas will be at highest risk for
daily thunderstorms with the deep basin the lowest threat.

Beyond Monday uncertainty and low confidence continues. Where the
latest GFS and ECMWF models agree is on the second upper low
continuing to lurk over or near the northwestern US...refusing to
follow it`s predecessor into the Great Basin. This suggest a
continuing unsettled troffy pattern with a threat of at least
hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
with temperatures remaining near seasonal normal or slightly above
normal. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The unstable atmosphere will continue, leading to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern
Panhandle and southeast Washington. These storms will move in an
unusual east-to-west direction. The showers and storms have the
best chance of affecting the KLWS and KPUW sites, but could also
impact KMWH and even KEAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  55  80  52  72  47 /  10  10  20  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  79  52  79  51  72  48 /  10  10  20  20  30  30
Pullman        76  50  74  47  67  43 /  40  40  30  50  40  40
Lewiston       81  58  79  54  73  52 /  40  40  40  60  50  40
Colville       85  50  84  53  80  50 /   0   0  10  10  30  20
Sandpoint      79  47  80  48  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  30  20
Kellogg        77  49  78  49  72  45 /  20  20  20  30  40  40
Moses Lake     84  56  83  52  76  50 /  10  20  30  30  30  40
Wenatchee      84  60  81  56  76  55 /  20  20  50  40  50  30
Omak           85  53  85  54  79  52 /  10  10  30  30  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





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