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000
FXUS66 KOTX 282236
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A showery and breezy weather pattern will continue over far
eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle tonight, but snow
levels will remain above pass levels for motorists traveling. A
strong push of cold arctic air will bring very windy conditions
to the Okanogan Valley tonight and Saturday. Cold conditions, with
a few minor snow bearing weather disturbances, are forecast for
the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE...

...MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER SET TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE INLAND NORTHWEST...

A complex weather scenario will unfold during the overnight hours
across the Inland Northwest. The main gist of tonight`s weather
will revolve around the southeast plunge of a strong surface low
currently over extreme southeast British Columbia and the arctic
cold front associated with it.

As of 2pm...the front was located generally north of the
Washington/BC border...as noted by surface observations and isallobaric
analysis...however the one exception was noted over the extreme
northern tip of the Okanogan Valley...mainly the Oroville area.
Based on recent trends...we fully expect the front to continue
dropping southward overnight...with precipitation coverage
steadily increasing ahead of it based on deep frotogenetic
circulations combined with a good pool of available moisture. We
expect most locations too see some precipitation overnight. While
most of it will be fairly light based on a steady frontal
progression...good westerly mid-level flow will add to the
orographic ascent resulting in higher precipitation amounts over
the Idaho Panhandle and near the Cascade Crest. Precipitation
totals could near an inch over these favored locations with much
lighter amounts elsewhere. We expect most of the precipitation to
fall ahead of the cold air which will limit potential snowfall
amounts. Even in the mountains this will be the case...with
current snow levels between 5-6k feet. Near the Cascades...the
snow levels will be 1-2k feet lower so some snow will be possible
there. We will also need to keep our eye out for locally heavy
snow late tonight near the Crest due to the formation of a post-
frontal Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Most model solutions place
this feature across the western Chelan County as opposed to
western Okanogan County...so this could definitely impact travel
later tonight as snow rates could get quite high for a brief time.

The other story for tonight will be the strong south to southwest winds
blowing into the BC low. These winds will likely remain fairly
strong into the evening...and then will begin to lax overnight as
the arctic front begins to pass. Based on guidance from the UW MM5
model...we will continue with the wind advisory for the
southeastern third of Washington and a small part of the southern
Idaho Panhandle. Still looks like wind gusts of 40-45 mph will be
possible through the evening. By midnight...winds should be well
below criteria...however after that...we expect things to pick up
dramatically through the Okanogan Valley as the arctic air rushes
in. We will also issue a wind highlight for this event.

Temperature forecasts for tonight will be quite tough. Typically the model
guidance goes too cool with lows when we are faced with an
incoming arctic front as the winds actually keep temperatures up
to a moderate extent. We will go with that notion and either
forecast using the mildest mos guidance or go slightly warmer than
even that. fx

Saturday through Sunday...The transition from the current wet
maritime air mass to a bone dry arctic air mass will dominate the
weather issues for this period. An upper level trough currently
diving through British Columbia will clip the northern and eastern
reaches of the forecast area over the next 24 hours. This trough
will drag a shot of arctic air in the form of a strong surface
high pressure into the forecast area from the north overnight
tonight and through Saturday. The best conduit for this cold
dense air will be through the narrow and constricted Okanogan
Valley. Starting tonight very windy conditions will develop down
the Okanogan Valley and onto the Waterville Plateau. A Wind
Advisory is well justified for this veritable fire hose of frigid
air howling into the Columbia Basin over the next 24 hours.
Previous case histories...all the available model guidance and
surface observations from upstream Canadian stations suggests only
Wind Advisory criteria (30 to 39 mph sustained with gusts to 57
mph) will be reached...but the magnitude of this arctic push and
the geographic orientation of the gradient is somewhat ominously
unprecedented and Subsequent shifts will need to monitor this
closely for the possibility of upgrading to a High Wind Warning
and/or potentially broadening out the areal extent of the advisory
to include the Moses Lake area.

The arriving upper trough and arctic front will form such a stark
air mass boundary that even though moisture is quickly decreasing
frontal lift may be enough to squeeze out an area of snow showers
or at least flurries over the northern and eastern zones as far
south as the Pullman area during the day Saturday. Minor
accumulations are possible on area roads across the eastern basin
and valleys of the northeast mountains. In the Shoshone County
mountains these new snow showers and residual upslope rain and
snow showers from the current Pacific moisture feed late tonight
and early tomorrow could create some slippery and hazardous
driving conditions across Lookout Pass from rain soaked roads
freezing overnight followed by a dusting to an inch or two of snow
on top...enough to concern holiday travelers and thus warranting
continuing the current Winter Weather Advisory.

Saturday night and Sunday will be a benign but cold period with
decreasing winds and likely considerable sunshine as the arctic
air mass becomes established and the northerly pressure gradient
eases into a more placid high pressure over southern BC. /Fugazzi

Sunday night through Friday..Flattened ridge void of shortwaves
passage leaves a cloudy yet precipitation free Sunday night with
cool northeast winds to work with. Low confidence for Monday and
Monday night with the same model differences continuing. The
latest ECMWF is now closer to solution to the current GFS and a
number of old GFS runs which places a stalled wet frontal zone
much further north. Older ECMWF runs held the stalled frontal zone
further south and away from the forecast area. Current ECMWF
suggests Monday and Monday night placement of the stalled front
just south of a line from Moses Lake to Colfax to Lookout Pass. So
I should just state now with the low confidence in placement of
this stalled frontal zone the Monday and Monday night pops and
associated weather are highly likely to be changed and
concentrated on. On the bright side there still is some
consistency in the eventual appearance of a weakly amplifying
negatively tilted ridge that splits and erodes the stalled frontal
zone allowing for a brief drying and warming trend for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Wednesday through Friday is another low
confidence interval as even the Consistent ECMWF is now bringing
in a wet low pressure system up from a warm Southwest trajectory
which would start precipitation out as snow in the beginning for
just about all elevations as early as Wednesday but snow level
would rise with temperatures and change it to rain for lowland and
valley locations. Older ECMWF solutions suggested the
Tuesday/Tuesday night ridge would stick around longer and the warm
wet system with the southwest trajectory would be over Washington
Thursday afternoon and beyond. So to summarize...I have more
confidence in the dry Tuesday/Tuesday night interval than I do
with the highly uncertain weather potential contained in the
Monday,Monday night and Wednesday through Friday portion of the
forecast. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all sites
through at least 00z. Main concern through that time will be with
winds and potential LLWS. The Spokane wind profiler showed winds
about 1500 feet above the ground with speeds nearing 50 kts and
given surface speeds of 20 kts or less will lead to potential LLWS
at least through 20-22z. After that time...the surface winds will
more closely resemble the winds aloft lowering the magnitude of
the shear. Overnight...the main forecast challenges will revolve
around the increasing chances of precipitation. Once the
precipitation arrives after 00z-02z the cigs will gradually lower.
The question and uncertainty is how soon? We forecast a very
short lag...but confidence isn`t high. Conditions should improve
late in the forecast once drier and much colder air moves in. fx

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  29  12  24  13  27 /  90  40   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  32  32  11  25  13  29 / 100  50  10   0   0  10
Pullman        33  33  15  26  17  32 / 100  40  10   0   0  30
Lewiston       40  40  20  29  20  37 /  80  50  20   0   0  30
Colville       22  24   3  20   9  26 /  80  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      24  29   5  21   8  26 / 100  50  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        28  30   4  22  11  28 / 100  70  20   0   0  20
Moses Lake     32  32  12  25  13  27 /  30  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      32  32  14  23  12  27 /  20  10   0   0  10  10
Omak           25  25   2  18   8  24 /  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Idaho Palouse-
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

     Wind Advisory from Midnight tonight to 10 PM PST Saturday for
     Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 282236
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A showery and breezy weather pattern will continue over far
eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle tonight, but snow
levels will remain above pass levels for motorists traveling. A
strong push of cold arctic air will bring very windy conditions
to the Okanogan Valley tonight and Saturday. Cold conditions, with
a few minor snow bearing weather disturbances, are forecast for
the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE...

...MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER SET TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE INLAND NORTHWEST...

A complex weather scenario will unfold during the overnight hours
across the Inland Northwest. The main gist of tonight`s weather
will revolve around the southeast plunge of a strong surface low
currently over extreme southeast British Columbia and the arctic
cold front associated with it.

As of 2pm...the front was located generally north of the
Washington/BC border...as noted by surface observations and isallobaric
analysis...however the one exception was noted over the extreme
northern tip of the Okanogan Valley...mainly the Oroville area.
Based on recent trends...we fully expect the front to continue
dropping southward overnight...with precipitation coverage
steadily increasing ahead of it based on deep frotogenetic
circulations combined with a good pool of available moisture. We
expect most locations too see some precipitation overnight. While
most of it will be fairly light based on a steady frontal
progression...good westerly mid-level flow will add to the
orographic ascent resulting in higher precipitation amounts over
the Idaho Panhandle and near the Cascade Crest. Precipitation
totals could near an inch over these favored locations with much
lighter amounts elsewhere. We expect most of the precipitation to
fall ahead of the cold air which will limit potential snowfall
amounts. Even in the mountains this will be the case...with
current snow levels between 5-6k feet. Near the Cascades...the
snow levels will be 1-2k feet lower so some snow will be possible
there. We will also need to keep our eye out for locally heavy
snow late tonight near the Crest due to the formation of a post-
frontal Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Most model solutions place
this feature across the western Chelan County as opposed to
western Okanogan County...so this could definitely impact travel
later tonight as snow rates could get quite high for a brief time.

The other story for tonight will be the strong south to southwest winds
blowing into the BC low. These winds will likely remain fairly
strong into the evening...and then will begin to lax overnight as
the arctic front begins to pass. Based on guidance from the UW MM5
model...we will continue with the wind advisory for the
southeastern third of Washington and a small part of the southern
Idaho Panhandle. Still looks like wind gusts of 40-45 mph will be
possible through the evening. By midnight...winds should be well
below criteria...however after that...we expect things to pick up
dramatically through the Okanogan Valley as the arctic air rushes
in. We will also issue a wind highlight for this event.

Temperature forecasts for tonight will be quite tough. Typically the model
guidance goes too cool with lows when we are faced with an
incoming arctic front as the winds actually keep temperatures up
to a moderate extent. We will go with that notion and either
forecast using the mildest mos guidance or go slightly warmer than
even that. fx

Saturday through Sunday...The transition from the current wet
maritime air mass to a bone dry arctic air mass will dominate the
weather issues for this period. An upper level trough currently
diving through British Columbia will clip the northern and eastern
reaches of the forecast area over the next 24 hours. This trough
will drag a shot of arctic air in the form of a strong surface
high pressure into the forecast area from the north overnight
tonight and through Saturday. The best conduit for this cold
dense air will be through the narrow and constricted Okanogan
Valley. Starting tonight very windy conditions will develop down
the Okanogan Valley and onto the Waterville Plateau. A Wind
Advisory is well justified for this veritable fire hose of frigid
air howling into the Columbia Basin over the next 24 hours.
Previous case histories...all the available model guidance and
surface observations from upstream Canadian stations suggests only
Wind Advisory criteria (30 to 39 mph sustained with gusts to 57
mph) will be reached...but the magnitude of this arctic push and
the geographic orientation of the gradient is somewhat ominously
unprecedented and Subsequent shifts will need to monitor this
closely for the possibility of upgrading to a High Wind Warning
and/or potentially broadening out the areal extent of the advisory
to include the Moses Lake area.

The arriving upper trough and arctic front will form such a stark
air mass boundary that even though moisture is quickly decreasing
frontal lift may be enough to squeeze out an area of snow showers
or at least flurries over the northern and eastern zones as far
south as the Pullman area during the day Saturday. Minor
accumulations are possible on area roads across the eastern basin
and valleys of the northeast mountains. In the Shoshone County
mountains these new snow showers and residual upslope rain and
snow showers from the current Pacific moisture feed late tonight
and early tomorrow could create some slippery and hazardous
driving conditions across Lookout Pass from rain soaked roads
freezing overnight followed by a dusting to an inch or two of snow
on top...enough to concern holiday travelers and thus warranting
continuing the current Winter Weather Advisory.

Saturday night and Sunday will be a benign but cold period with
decreasing winds and likely considerable sunshine as the arctic
air mass becomes established and the northerly pressure gradient
eases into a more placid high pressure over southern BC. /Fugazzi

Sunday night through Friday..Flattened ridge void of shortwaves
passage leaves a cloudy yet precipitation free Sunday night with
cool northeast winds to work with. Low confidence for Monday and
Monday night with the same model differences continuing. The
latest ECMWF is now closer to solution to the current GFS and a
number of old GFS runs which places a stalled wet frontal zone
much further north. Older ECMWF runs held the stalled frontal zone
further south and away from the forecast area. Current ECMWF
suggests Monday and Monday night placement of the stalled front
just south of a line from Moses Lake to Colfax to Lookout Pass. So
I should just state now with the low confidence in placement of
this stalled frontal zone the Monday and Monday night pops and
associated weather are highly likely to be changed and
concentrated on. On the bright side there still is some
consistency in the eventual appearance of a weakly amplifying
negatively tilted ridge that splits and erodes the stalled frontal
zone allowing for a brief drying and warming trend for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Wednesday through Friday is another low
confidence interval as even the Consistent ECMWF is now bringing
in a wet low pressure system up from a warm Southwest trajectory
which would start precipitation out as snow in the beginning for
just about all elevations as early as Wednesday but snow level
would rise with temperatures and change it to rain for lowland and
valley locations. Older ECMWF solutions suggested the
Tuesday/Tuesday night ridge would stick around longer and the warm
wet system with the southwest trajectory would be over Washington
Thursday afternoon and beyond. So to summarize...I have more
confidence in the dry Tuesday/Tuesday night interval than I do
with the highly uncertain weather potential contained in the
Monday,Monday night and Wednesday through Friday portion of the
forecast. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all sites
through at least 00z. Main concern through that time will be with
winds and potential LLWS. The Spokane wind profiler showed winds
about 1500 feet above the ground with speeds nearing 50 kts and
given surface speeds of 20 kts or less will lead to potential LLWS
at least through 20-22z. After that time...the surface winds will
more closely resemble the winds aloft lowering the magnitude of
the shear. Overnight...the main forecast challenges will revolve
around the increasing chances of precipitation. Once the
precipitation arrives after 00z-02z the cigs will gradually lower.
The question and uncertainty is how soon? We forecast a very
short lag...but confidence isn`t high. Conditions should improve
late in the forecast once drier and much colder air moves in. fx

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  29  12  24  13  27 /  90  40   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  32  32  11  25  13  29 / 100  50  10   0   0  10
Pullman        33  33  15  26  17  32 / 100  40  10   0   0  30
Lewiston       40  40  20  29  20  37 /  80  50  20   0   0  30
Colville       22  24   3  20   9  26 /  80  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      24  29   5  21   8  26 / 100  50  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        28  30   4  22  11  28 / 100  70  20   0   0  20
Moses Lake     32  32  12  25  13  27 /  30  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      32  32  14  23  12  27 /  20  10   0   0  10  10
Omak           25  25   2  18   8  24 /  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Idaho Palouse-
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

     Wind Advisory from Midnight tonight to 10 PM PST Saturday for
     Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282038
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1238 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going today, but snow levels will remain above pass levels for
motorists traveling. The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic
front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter driving
conditions to the mountain passes and much colder weather for the
weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing weather
disturbances, is forecast for the new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...Complex weather situation continues to evolve over
the Inland Northwest this afternoon as a very strong surface low
remains parked over southeast BC. North and east of this low was a
powerful arctic cold front...while across the entire Inland NW
was an unusually mild and fairly moist air mass. The overwhelming
majority of our forecast area will remain fixed in this warm
regime through the daylight hours.

The main challenges associated with this area for today will be
where will it rain. Thus far model guidance has generally been
overplaying the coverage of the rain and not giving enough
credence to the downslope winds coming off the Cascades. Most of
the rain earlier today was associated with a weakening plume of
moisture associated with a warm front. Since this morning...the
warm front has dropped into extreme SE Washington and the southern
Idaho Panhandle with most of the rain following it. Meanwhile the
advancing arctic front was producing another swath of
precipitation across the northern Cascades and extending toward
the SE BC low. Not sure things will change much later this
afternoon however...we expect the precipitation coverage to expand
across the Canadian border by later this afternoon. Pops have been
updated accordingly.

The other story for today will be the strong south to southwest
winds blowing into the SE BC low. These winds have led to another
very mild day across the region with temperatures anywhere from
15-20 degrees above the seasonal normals. Temperatures have been
updated to closer reflect current conditions. The surface pressure
gradients havn`t really been strengthening much today...but they
will still likely do a little this afternoon as the arctic front
nears. Winds should likely peak in response sometime later this
afternoon. Sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph are expected across
the eastern Columbia Basin...Palouse...Lewiston area...and Spokane
area with gusts ranging from 40-45 mph. The winds will likely
continue through the evening. The current wind highlights for
these areas look good...however we expanded it into the Lewiston
area based on observations and guidance from the UW MM5 model.

The strong S-SW wind regime should transition to brisk northerly
flow in the Okanogan Valley perhaps before dark...but better
chances will likely hold off until this evening. This to will
present another significant wind event. More on that later.

fx
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all sites
through at least 00z. Main concern through that time will be with
winds and potential LLWS. The Spokane wind profiler showed winds
about 1500 feet above the ground with speeds nearing 50 kts and
given surface speeds of 20 kts or less will lead to potential LLWS
at least through 20-22z. After that time...the surface winds will
more closely resemble the winds aloft lowering the magnitude of
the shear. Overnight...the main forecast challenges will revolve
around the increasing chances of precipitation. Once the
precipitation arrives after 00z-02z the cigs will gradually lower.
The question and uncertainty is how soon? We forecast a very
short lag...but confidence isn`t high. Conditions should improve
late in the forecast once drier and much colder air moves in. fx

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  26  29  12  24  13 /  40  80  40   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  56  29  31  11  25  13 /  50 100  50  10   0   0
Pullman        55  31  33  15  26  17 /  50 100  40  10   0   0
Lewiston       61  37  40  20  29  20 /  30  90  50  20   0   0
Colville       53  22  24   3  20   9 /  70  60  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  26  29   5  21   8 /  90 100  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        52  29  30   4  22  11 /  90 100  70  20   0   0
Moses Lake     60  27  30  12  25  13 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  29  32  14  23  12 /  40  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           49  17  21   2  18   8 /  80  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Idaho Palouse-
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 282038
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1238 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going today, but snow levels will remain above pass levels for
motorists traveling. The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic
front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter driving
conditions to the mountain passes and much colder weather for the
weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing weather
disturbances, is forecast for the new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...Complex weather situation continues to evolve over
the Inland Northwest this afternoon as a very strong surface low
remains parked over southeast BC. North and east of this low was a
powerful arctic cold front...while across the entire Inland NW
was an unusually mild and fairly moist air mass. The overwhelming
majority of our forecast area will remain fixed in this warm
regime through the daylight hours.

The main challenges associated with this area for today will be
where will it rain. Thus far model guidance has generally been
overplaying the coverage of the rain and not giving enough
credence to the downslope winds coming off the Cascades. Most of
the rain earlier today was associated with a weakening plume of
moisture associated with a warm front. Since this morning...the
warm front has dropped into extreme SE Washington and the southern
Idaho Panhandle with most of the rain following it. Meanwhile the
advancing arctic front was producing another swath of
precipitation across the northern Cascades and extending toward
the SE BC low. Not sure things will change much later this
afternoon however...we expect the precipitation coverage to expand
across the Canadian border by later this afternoon. Pops have been
updated accordingly.

The other story for today will be the strong south to southwest
winds blowing into the SE BC low. These winds have led to another
very mild day across the region with temperatures anywhere from
15-20 degrees above the seasonal normals. Temperatures have been
updated to closer reflect current conditions. The surface pressure
gradients havn`t really been strengthening much today...but they
will still likely do a little this afternoon as the arctic front
nears. Winds should likely peak in response sometime later this
afternoon. Sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph are expected across
the eastern Columbia Basin...Palouse...Lewiston area...and Spokane
area with gusts ranging from 40-45 mph. The winds will likely
continue through the evening. The current wind highlights for
these areas look good...however we expanded it into the Lewiston
area based on observations and guidance from the UW MM5 model.

The strong S-SW wind regime should transition to brisk northerly
flow in the Okanogan Valley perhaps before dark...but better
chances will likely hold off until this evening. This to will
present another significant wind event. More on that later.

fx
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all sites
through at least 00z. Main concern through that time will be with
winds and potential LLWS. The Spokane wind profiler showed winds
about 1500 feet above the ground with speeds nearing 50 kts and
given surface speeds of 20 kts or less will lead to potential LLWS
at least through 20-22z. After that time...the surface winds will
more closely resemble the winds aloft lowering the magnitude of
the shear. Overnight...the main forecast challenges will revolve
around the increasing chances of precipitation. Once the
precipitation arrives after 00z-02z the cigs will gradually lower.
The question and uncertainty is how soon? We forecast a very
short lag...but confidence isn`t high. Conditions should improve
late in the forecast once drier and much colder air moves in. fx

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  26  29  12  24  13 /  40  80  40   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  56  29  31  11  25  13 /  50 100  50  10   0   0
Pullman        55  31  33  15  26  17 /  50 100  40  10   0   0
Lewiston       61  37  40  20  29  20 /  30  90  50  20   0   0
Colville       53  22  24   3  20   9 /  70  60  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  26  29   5  21   8 /  90 100  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        52  29  30   4  22  11 /  90 100  70  20   0   0
Moses Lake     60  27  30  12  25  13 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  29  32  14  23  12 /  40  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           49  17  21   2  18   8 /  80  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Idaho Palouse-
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Wind Advisory until Midnight PST tonight for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281208
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
408 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going today, but snow levels will remain above pass levels for
motorists traveling. The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic
front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter driving
conditions to the mountain passes and much colder weather for the
weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing weather
disturbances, is forecast for the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday: The biggest change to the previous fcst
was the issue a winter wx advsy for snow for Saturday for the
Cntrl Idaho Panhandle mtn zone (mostly Shoshone county) for
significant snow accumulations down to the valley floors. This
could be a potentially busy I-90 travel day back home following
Thanksgiving. The wind advisory for today has not changed. Very
mild temps and windy conditions are still expected today as we
remain in the pre-arctic cold front passage expected Fri Nt. A
nearly unidirectional vertical SW wind profile... with 40-50kt
aloft...will help to provide very efficient mixing and transfer
of these higher speeds around 5k ft aloft to the sfc. Snow levels
will remain very high today, but falling quickly to the sfc as the
surge of very cold air behind the arctic front works its way from
north to south across Ern Wa and N Idaho Sat. The most tricky
part of the fcst will be snow amnts. This front and associated
upper wave will move through quickly and help to limit snow
accumulations. Offsetting this somewhat will be respectable lg-
scale forcing for ascent with the wave as well as a strong lower
tropospheric upslope component of flow into the Idaho Panhandle
Sat. Also, SWE ratios (once the cold air mass fully arrives) will
be at least 20-30:1, promoting heavier accumulations. And even
moderately gusty winds would produce blowing snow and restricted
visibilities where snow is expected. We`ll have to watch the Camas
Prairie of Idaho for significant snow accumulations Sat Nt as the
low-level flow veers to the NW and enhances the upslope flow.
Confidence is not great as far as snow accumulations for the
Spokane area Sat. The majority of model guidance (which we`ve
favored) shows the best pcpn threat ending very close to when the
cold air moves into the area. We`ll be watching the scenario
closely, and adjust the snowfall fcst accordingly and as quickly
as possible as soon as these snow ingredients allow us to fine
tune the accumulations better. bz

Saturday night through Monday...The region will transition to a
cold and dry weather pattern as a polar front swings south across
the Inland Northwest. Gusty north winds will continue to be
channeled down the Okanogan Valley Saturday night. The combination
of very cold temperatures and windy conditions will result in wind
chill temperatures of -15 to -20 F overnight. The strong surface
pressure gradient fostering the elevated winds will slacken Sunday
as the low pressure center moves off to the southeast and weakens.
This will allow winds to diminish and become more terrain driven.
High temperatures Sunday will be 12 to 15 degrees below seasonal
normals. While most valley locations will be in the low to mid
20s, some of the northern valleys will remain in the teens during
the day, then drop back near zero Sunday night.

The large scale pattern will become more westerly by Monday. Without
the reinforcing cold north winds, temperatures will start to
moderate somewhat. A closed low off the CA coast will drift east,
acting to push the frontal boundary back north as a warm front.
The 00Z run of both the GFS and the ECMWF now keep this front
mostly to our south with just the southeast zones under the threat
of precipitation from this feature. The warm front will battle
with the deep cold air in place. Some warm air may push in aloft
but for now wet bulb temperatures remain below freezing throughout
the day Monday so precip would likely fall as snow.

Monday night through Thursday...The extended forecast has been
trended toward the ECMWF which builds a foldover ridge over the
region in response to the CA offshore low. This is a drier
forecast than the GFS which brings the moisture stream farther
north in more zonal flow. There will be a very gradual warmup
since winds will be light and mainly terrain driven with limited
mixing potential. The ridge does not hang around for long. It will
be pushed east once the coastal low moves inland during the mid-
week period, bringing the next round of precipitation to the
region. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A developing storm system will bring rain chances over
the next 24 hours. This pcpn has already started around PUW/LWS.
Look for VFR conditions, with local MVFR/IFR cigs possible in
heavier precipitation as afternoon progresses into evening.
Strengthening winds this morning, topping lights sfc winds, may
lead to areas of LLWS. By late morning/afternoon Some winds gusts
between 30 and 45 kts will be possible.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  26  27  10  23  13 /  70  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  29  29  12  23  13 /  90 100  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  31  32  12  25  17 /  90 100  50  10   0   0
Lewiston       57  37  38  20  28  20 /  60  90  60  20   0   0
Colville       47  22  23   3  21   9 /  70  60  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  26  27   8  20   8 /  90 100  40  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  29  30  10  21  11 / 100 100  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     55  27  29   8  25  13 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      49  29  30  13  23  12 /  30  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           46  17  19   1  18   8 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 281208
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
408 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going today, but snow levels will remain above pass levels for
motorists traveling. The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic
front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter driving
conditions to the mountain passes and much colder weather for the
weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing weather
disturbances, is forecast for the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday: The biggest change to the previous fcst
was the issue a winter wx advsy for snow for Saturday for the
Cntrl Idaho Panhandle mtn zone (mostly Shoshone county) for
significant snow accumulations down to the valley floors. This
could be a potentially busy I-90 travel day back home following
Thanksgiving. The wind advisory for today has not changed. Very
mild temps and windy conditions are still expected today as we
remain in the pre-arctic cold front passage expected Fri Nt. A
nearly unidirectional vertical SW wind profile... with 40-50kt
aloft...will help to provide very efficient mixing and transfer
of these higher speeds around 5k ft aloft to the sfc. Snow levels
will remain very high today, but falling quickly to the sfc as the
surge of very cold air behind the arctic front works its way from
north to south across Ern Wa and N Idaho Sat. The most tricky
part of the fcst will be snow amnts. This front and associated
upper wave will move through quickly and help to limit snow
accumulations. Offsetting this somewhat will be respectable lg-
scale forcing for ascent with the wave as well as a strong lower
tropospheric upslope component of flow into the Idaho Panhandle
Sat. Also, SWE ratios (once the cold air mass fully arrives) will
be at least 20-30:1, promoting heavier accumulations. And even
moderately gusty winds would produce blowing snow and restricted
visibilities where snow is expected. We`ll have to watch the Camas
Prairie of Idaho for significant snow accumulations Sat Nt as the
low-level flow veers to the NW and enhances the upslope flow.
Confidence is not great as far as snow accumulations for the
Spokane area Sat. The majority of model guidance (which we`ve
favored) shows the best pcpn threat ending very close to when the
cold air moves into the area. We`ll be watching the scenario
closely, and adjust the snowfall fcst accordingly and as quickly
as possible as soon as these snow ingredients allow us to fine
tune the accumulations better. bz

Saturday night through Monday...The region will transition to a
cold and dry weather pattern as a polar front swings south across
the Inland Northwest. Gusty north winds will continue to be
channeled down the Okanogan Valley Saturday night. The combination
of very cold temperatures and windy conditions will result in wind
chill temperatures of -15 to -20 F overnight. The strong surface
pressure gradient fostering the elevated winds will slacken Sunday
as the low pressure center moves off to the southeast and weakens.
This will allow winds to diminish and become more terrain driven.
High temperatures Sunday will be 12 to 15 degrees below seasonal
normals. While most valley locations will be in the low to mid
20s, some of the northern valleys will remain in the teens during
the day, then drop back near zero Sunday night.

The large scale pattern will become more westerly by Monday. Without
the reinforcing cold north winds, temperatures will start to
moderate somewhat. A closed low off the CA coast will drift east,
acting to push the frontal boundary back north as a warm front.
The 00Z run of both the GFS and the ECMWF now keep this front
mostly to our south with just the southeast zones under the threat
of precipitation from this feature. The warm front will battle
with the deep cold air in place. Some warm air may push in aloft
but for now wet bulb temperatures remain below freezing throughout
the day Monday so precip would likely fall as snow.

Monday night through Thursday...The extended forecast has been
trended toward the ECMWF which builds a foldover ridge over the
region in response to the CA offshore low. This is a drier
forecast than the GFS which brings the moisture stream farther
north in more zonal flow. There will be a very gradual warmup
since winds will be light and mainly terrain driven with limited
mixing potential. The ridge does not hang around for long. It will
be pushed east once the coastal low moves inland during the mid-
week period, bringing the next round of precipitation to the
region. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A developing storm system will bring rain chances over
the next 24 hours. This pcpn has already started around PUW/LWS.
Look for VFR conditions, with local MVFR/IFR cigs possible in
heavier precipitation as afternoon progresses into evening.
Strengthening winds this morning, topping lights sfc winds, may
lead to areas of LLWS. By late morning/afternoon Some winds gusts
between 30 and 45 kts will be possible.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  26  27  10  23  13 /  70  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  29  29  12  23  13 /  90 100  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  31  32  12  25  17 /  90 100  50  10   0   0
Lewiston       57  37  38  20  28  20 /  60  90  60  20   0   0
Colville       47  22  23   3  21   9 /  70  60  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  26  27   8  20   8 /  90 100  40  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  29  30  10  21  11 / 100 100  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     55  27  29   8  25  13 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      49  29  30  13  23  12 /  30  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           46  17  19   1  18   8 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281054
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going today, but snow levels will remain above pass levels for
motorists traveling. The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic
front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter driving
conditions to the mountain passes and much colder weather for the
weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing weather
disturbances, is forecast for the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday: The biggest change to the previous fcst
was the issue a winter wx advsy for snow for Saturday for the
Cntrl Idaho Panhandle mtn zone (mostly Shoshone county) for
significant snow accumulations down to the valley floors. This
could be a potentially busy I-90 travel day back home following
Thanksgiving. The wind advisory for today has not changed. Very
mild temps and windy conditions are still expected today as we
remain in the pre-arctic cold front passage expected Fri Nt. A
nearly unidirectional vertical SW wind profile... with 40-50kt
aloft...will help to provide very efficient mixing and transfer
of these higher speeds around 5k ft aloft to the sfc. Snow levels
will remain very high today, but falling quickly to the sfc as the
surge of very cold air behind the arctic front works its way from
north to south across Ern Wa and N Idaho Sat. The most tricky
part of the fcst will be snow amnts. This front and associated
upper wave will move through quickly and help to limit snow
accumulations. Offsetting this somewhat will be respectable lg-
scale forcing for ascent with the wave as well as a strong lower
tropospheric upslope component of flow into the Idaho Panhandle
Sat. Also, SWE ratios (once the cold air mass fully arrives) will
be at least 20-30:1, promoting heavier accumulations. And even
moderately gusty winds would produce blowing snow and restricted
visibilities where snow is expected. We`ll have to watch the Camas
Prairie of Idaho for significant snow accumulations Sat Nt as the
low-level flow veers to the NW and enhances the upslope flow.
Confidence is not great as far as snow accumulations for the
Spokane area Sat. The majority of model guidance (which we`ve
favored) shows the best pcpn threat ending very close to when the
cold air moves into the area. We`ll be watching the scenario
closely, and adjust the snowfall fcst accordingly and as quickly
as possible as soon as these snow ingredients allow us to fine
tune the accumulations better. bz

Saturday night through Monday...The region will transition to a
cold and dry weather pattern as a polar front swings south across
the Inland Northwest. Gusty north winds will continue to be
channeled down the Okanogan Valley Saturday night. The combination
of very cold temperatures and windy conditions will result in wind
chill temperatures of -15 to -20 F overnight. The strong surface
pressure gradient fostering the elevated winds will slacken Sunday
as the low pressure center moves off to the southeast and weakens.
This will allow winds to diminish and become more terrain driven.
High temperatures Sunday will be 12 to 15 degrees below seasonal
normals. While most valley locations will be in the low to mid
20s, some of the northern valleys will remain in the teens during
the day, then drop back near zero Sunday night.

The large scale pattern will become more westerly by Monday. Without
the reinforcing cold north winds, temperatures will start to
moderate somewhat. A closed low off the CA coast will drift east,
acting to push the frontal boundary back north as a warm front.
The 00Z run of both the GFS and the ECMWF now keep this front
mostly to our south with just the southeast zones under the threat
of precipitation from this feature. The warm front will battle
with the deep cold air in place. Some warm air may push in aloft
but for now wet bulb temperatures remain below freezing throughout
the day Monday so precip would likely fall as snow.

Monday night through Thursday...The extended forecast has been
trended toward the ECMWF which builds a foldover ridge over the
region in response to the CA offshore low. This is a drier
forecast than the GFS which brings the moisture stream farther
north in more zonal flow. There will be a very gradual warmup
since winds will be light and mainly terrain driven with limited
mixing potential. The ridge does not hang around for long. It will
be pushed east once the coastal low moves inland during the mid-
week period, bringing the next round of precipitation to the
region. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A developing storm system will bring mean increasing
clouds and rain chances over the next 24 hours. The best chances
will start late tonight into Friday morning around PUW/LWS.
Chances will also come toward the GEG to COE areas by Friday
morning, but the better threat here will be in afternoon and
evening. Look for VFR conditions, with local MVFR/IFR cigs
possible in heavier precipitation as Friday afternoon progresses
into evening. The lowest precipitation threat will be over the lee
of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin, including EAT/MWH.
There is some potential for fog and stratus to develop overnight
and early Friday around EAT, but latest forecasts guidance
suggests it may not be as deep if it develops at all. In the messy
pattern, there will also be breezy and gusty winds, but these may
be decoupled tonight and early Friday leading to areas of LLWS. By
mid to late morning/afternoon the atmosphere begins to mixed again
and gradients will tighten with the incoming low, leading to
breezy conditions. Some winds gusts between 30 and 45 kts will be
possible in the afternoon, especially over the expose TAF sites
including GEG.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  26  27  10  23  13 /  70  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  29  29  12  23  13 /  90 100  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  31  32  12  25  17 /  90 100  50  10   0   0
Lewiston       57  37  38  20  28  20 /  60  90  60  20   0   0
Colville       47  22  23   3  21   9 /  70  60  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  26  27   8  20   8 /  90 100  40  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  29  30  10  21  11 / 100 100  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     55  27  29   8  25  13 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      49  29  30  13  23  12 /  30  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           46  17  19   1  18   8 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281054
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going today, but snow levels will remain above pass levels for
motorists traveling. The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic
front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter driving
conditions to the mountain passes and much colder weather for the
weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing weather
disturbances, is forecast for the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday: The biggest change to the previous fcst
was the issue a winter wx advsy for snow for Saturday for the
Cntrl Idaho Panhandle mtn zone (mostly Shoshone county) for
significant snow accumulations down to the valley floors. This
could be a potentially busy I-90 travel day back home following
Thanksgiving. The wind advisory for today has not changed. Very
mild temps and windy conditions are still expected today as we
remain in the pre-arctic cold front passage expected Fri Nt. A
nearly unidirectional vertical SW wind profile... with 40-50kt
aloft...will help to provide very efficient mixing and transfer
of these higher speeds around 5k ft aloft to the sfc. Snow levels
will remain very high today, but falling quickly to the sfc as the
surge of very cold air behind the arctic front works its way from
north to south across Ern Wa and N Idaho Sat. The most tricky
part of the fcst will be snow amnts. This front and associated
upper wave will move through quickly and help to limit snow
accumulations. Offsetting this somewhat will be respectable lg-
scale forcing for ascent with the wave as well as a strong lower
tropospheric upslope component of flow into the Idaho Panhandle
Sat. Also, SWE ratios (once the cold air mass fully arrives) will
be at least 20-30:1, promoting heavier accumulations. And even
moderately gusty winds would produce blowing snow and restricted
visibilities where snow is expected. We`ll have to watch the Camas
Prairie of Idaho for significant snow accumulations Sat Nt as the
low-level flow veers to the NW and enhances the upslope flow.
Confidence is not great as far as snow accumulations for the
Spokane area Sat. The majority of model guidance (which we`ve
favored) shows the best pcpn threat ending very close to when the
cold air moves into the area. We`ll be watching the scenario
closely, and adjust the snowfall fcst accordingly and as quickly
as possible as soon as these snow ingredients allow us to fine
tune the accumulations better. bz

Saturday night through Monday...The region will transition to a
cold and dry weather pattern as a polar front swings south across
the Inland Northwest. Gusty north winds will continue to be
channeled down the Okanogan Valley Saturday night. The combination
of very cold temperatures and windy conditions will result in wind
chill temperatures of -15 to -20 F overnight. The strong surface
pressure gradient fostering the elevated winds will slacken Sunday
as the low pressure center moves off to the southeast and weakens.
This will allow winds to diminish and become more terrain driven.
High temperatures Sunday will be 12 to 15 degrees below seasonal
normals. While most valley locations will be in the low to mid
20s, some of the northern valleys will remain in the teens during
the day, then drop back near zero Sunday night.

The large scale pattern will become more westerly by Monday. Without
the reinforcing cold north winds, temperatures will start to
moderate somewhat. A closed low off the CA coast will drift east,
acting to push the frontal boundary back north as a warm front.
The 00Z run of both the GFS and the ECMWF now keep this front
mostly to our south with just the southeast zones under the threat
of precipitation from this feature. The warm front will battle
with the deep cold air in place. Some warm air may push in aloft
but for now wet bulb temperatures remain below freezing throughout
the day Monday so precip would likely fall as snow.

Monday night through Thursday...The extended forecast has been
trended toward the ECMWF which builds a foldover ridge over the
region in response to the CA offshore low. This is a drier
forecast than the GFS which brings the moisture stream farther
north in more zonal flow. There will be a very gradual warmup
since winds will be light and mainly terrain driven with limited
mixing potential. The ridge does not hang around for long. It will
be pushed east once the coastal low moves inland during the mid-
week period, bringing the next round of precipitation to the
region. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A developing storm system will bring mean increasing
clouds and rain chances over the next 24 hours. The best chances
will start late tonight into Friday morning around PUW/LWS.
Chances will also come toward the GEG to COE areas by Friday
morning, but the better threat here will be in afternoon and
evening. Look for VFR conditions, with local MVFR/IFR cigs
possible in heavier precipitation as Friday afternoon progresses
into evening. The lowest precipitation threat will be over the lee
of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin, including EAT/MWH.
There is some potential for fog and stratus to develop overnight
and early Friday around EAT, but latest forecasts guidance
suggests it may not be as deep if it develops at all. In the messy
pattern, there will also be breezy and gusty winds, but these may
be decoupled tonight and early Friday leading to areas of LLWS. By
mid to late morning/afternoon the atmosphere begins to mixed again
and gradients will tighten with the incoming low, leading to
breezy conditions. Some winds gusts between 30 and 45 kts will be
possible in the afternoon, especially over the expose TAF sites
including GEG.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  26  27  10  23  13 /  70  80  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  29  29  12  23  13 /  90 100  20  10   0   0
Pullman        53  31  32  12  25  17 /  90 100  50  10   0   0
Lewiston       57  37  38  20  28  20 /  60  90  60  20   0   0
Colville       47  22  23   3  21   9 /  70  60  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  26  27   8  20   8 /  90 100  40  10   0   0
Kellogg        44  29  30  10  21  11 / 100 100  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     55  27  29   8  25  13 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      49  29  30  13  23  12 /  30  10  10   0   0  10
Omak           46  17  19   1  18   8 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight PST tonight
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 280603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1003 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going into Friday, but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances, is forecast for new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: adjustments made based on newest model runs and
satellite/radar trends. I cut back PoPs for the remainder of the
night, especially from the Spokane area westward. I also reduced
PoPs for this evening south toward the Palouse/L-C valley, but
they still rise overnight into Friday. On Friday itself I also cut
back PoP some in the morning across the Spokane area westward, but
ramp them up more Spokane afternoon and evening, making some
upward adjustments in precipitation amounts. Friday`s system is
still on track to bring colder air in and models turn off the
precipitation threat relatively quick from the northwest as that
colder air is coming in. Adjustments were also made to overnight
lows, bumping them up a degree or two given current trends.

It still looks like there is some snow threat on the tail end of
the Friday`s system. The chances appear best late Friday
afternoon and evening near the Cascades and Friday night into
Saturday morning farther east. This may include the eastern third
of WA and north ID. Given the winds with the system, confidence
leans toward favoring little significant accumulations over
northeast WA and north ID. However some light to moderate
accumulations are possible near the Cascade crest and late Friday
night and moreso toward Saturday morning toward the central
Panhandle mountain passes. There may be some light accumulation
lingering through Saturday morning over the southeast WA, across
the higher Palouse of WA and ID and the Blues through Camas
Prairie, in the favorable northwest flow.

The main thing to get: there may be some impacts over the passes,
first in the Cascades late Friday afternoon/evening and
potentially toward the central Panhandle toward late Friday night
into Saturday morning. The Palouse southward will have a secondary
but minor threat. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A developing storm system will bring mean increasing
clouds and rain chances over the next 24 hours. The best chances
will start late tonight into Friday morning around PUW/LWS.
Chances will also come toward the GEG to COE areas by Friday
morning, but the better threat here will be in afternoon and
evening. Look for VFR conditions, with local MVFR/IFR cigs
possible in heavier precipitation as Friday afternoon progresses
into evening. The lowest precipitation threat will be over the lee
of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin, including EAT/MWH.
There is some potential for fog and stratus to develop overnight
and early Friday around EAT, but latest forecasts guidance
suggests it may not be as deep if it develops at all. In the messy
pattern, there will also be breezy and gusty winds, but these may
be decoupled tonight and early Friday leading to areas of LLWS. By
mid to late morning/afternoon the atmosphere begins to mixed again
and gradients will tighten with the incoming low, leading to
breezy conditions. Some winds gusts between 30 and 45 kts will be
possible in the afternoon, especially over the expose TAF sites
including GEG.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  50  26  27  10  22 /  10  70  80  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  49  29  29  11  23 /  20  90 100  20  10   0
Pullman        44  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       47  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  60  90  60  20   0
Colville       41  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      42  45  26  27   8  20 /  60  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        40  44  29  30  10  21 /  70 100 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     43  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1003 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
going into Friday, but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions, with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances, is forecast for new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: adjustments made based on newest model runs and
satellite/radar trends. I cut back PoPs for the remainder of the
night, especially from the Spokane area westward. I also reduced
PoPs for this evening south toward the Palouse/L-C valley, but
they still rise overnight into Friday. On Friday itself I also cut
back PoP some in the morning across the Spokane area westward, but
ramp them up more Spokane afternoon and evening, making some
upward adjustments in precipitation amounts. Friday`s system is
still on track to bring colder air in and models turn off the
precipitation threat relatively quick from the northwest as that
colder air is coming in. Adjustments were also made to overnight
lows, bumping them up a degree or two given current trends.

It still looks like there is some snow threat on the tail end of
the Friday`s system. The chances appear best late Friday
afternoon and evening near the Cascades and Friday night into
Saturday morning farther east. This may include the eastern third
of WA and north ID. Given the winds with the system, confidence
leans toward favoring little significant accumulations over
northeast WA and north ID. However some light to moderate
accumulations are possible near the Cascade crest and late Friday
night and moreso toward Saturday morning toward the central
Panhandle mountain passes. There may be some light accumulation
lingering through Saturday morning over the southeast WA, across
the higher Palouse of WA and ID and the Blues through Camas
Prairie, in the favorable northwest flow.

The main thing to get: there may be some impacts over the passes,
first in the Cascades late Friday afternoon/evening and
potentially toward the central Panhandle toward late Friday night
into Saturday morning. The Palouse southward will have a secondary
but minor threat. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A developing storm system will bring mean increasing
clouds and rain chances over the next 24 hours. The best chances
will start late tonight into Friday morning around PUW/LWS.
Chances will also come toward the GEG to COE areas by Friday
morning, but the better threat here will be in afternoon and
evening. Look for VFR conditions, with local MVFR/IFR cigs
possible in heavier precipitation as Friday afternoon progresses
into evening. The lowest precipitation threat will be over the lee
of the Cascades and deeper Columbia Basin, including EAT/MWH.
There is some potential for fog and stratus to develop overnight
and early Friday around EAT, but latest forecasts guidance
suggests it may not be as deep if it develops at all. In the messy
pattern, there will also be breezy and gusty winds, but these may
be decoupled tonight and early Friday leading to areas of LLWS. By
mid to late morning/afternoon the atmosphere begins to mixed again
and gradients will tighten with the incoming low, leading to
breezy conditions. Some winds gusts between 30 and 45 kts will be
possible in the afternoon, especially over the expose TAF sites
including GEG.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. The offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  50  26  27  10  22 /  10  70  80  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  49  29  29  11  23 /  20  90 100  20  10   0
Pullman        44  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       47  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  60  90  60  20   0
Colville       41  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      42  45  26  27   8  20 /  60  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        40  44  29  30  10  21 /  70 100 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     43  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 280034
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
418 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
tonight and Friday but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances are expected as the new work week begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...A somewhat complex flow regime is apparent on
satellite this afternoon. Two Pacific moisture feeds are
perceptible...one feeding into southwest Oregon with the northern
fringe of this feed seeping up into the southeastern
Washington/north Idaho zones and the second fetching into
Vancouver Isle. The southern fetch will provide a fuel source for
mainly spotty showers tonight and into Friday morning into the
Palouse area and the Shoshone County mountains. The northern feed
will slump southward and become better directed into the forecast
area tonight and sag further through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day Friday...driven through by an upper level
trough descending down the British Columbia coast and generating a
surface low under it`s dynamic foot over southern British
Columbia. This low is implied by the baroclinic leaf cloud shield
over central BC and Alberta.

Latest GFS and Nam and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in
evolving this flow regime. The BC surface low will move south and
enter the forecast area Friday morning...deepening as it
does...and move down the Washington/Idaho border. It will be
fueled by the northern deep moisture feed as it does. The presence
of this deepening surface low will help spread the precipitation
shield out into the basin...not just the mountains where the fast
westerly flow would imply a strong orographic component.

Thus the forecast for the next 24 hours will become increasingly
wet. All zones will be subject to light rain...with the best
chance for a significant period of rain on Friday over the
eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and over the
Cascades. Snow levels will remain between 5000 and 6000 feet until
the surface low passes to the south Friday night.

Winds will continue to be a dominant issue through Friday with
model soundings suggesting gust potential to 40 to 50 mph over the
exposed terrain of the eastern basin by Friday afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be issued with the afternoon package for most of
the zones of the eastern basin. This breezy air mass will once
again promote mild temperatures for overnight lows tonight and
Friday high temps. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday: This period will feature a big transition
from wet and mild weather toward cold and dry conditions. As this
transition occurs Friday night into Saturday, anticipate gusty
winds, periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly in the
form of valley rain and high mountain snow), and concluding with
the potential for brief valley snow and potential for a few inches
within the eastern mountains.

* Synoptic Overview: Arctic air currently resides under the
  upper- level trof over Northern British Columbia. This low will
  pick up momentum during the next 24 hours then rapidly
  accelerate southward through the region Friday night into
  Saturday morning. The low will interact with a stalled frontal
  boundary draped along the International border promoting
  cyclogenesis (deepening surface low) and a strong surface low
  (990-994mb) deepens somewhere along the WA/ID border between
  I-90 and Canadian Border. Intense pressure gradients will setup
  on both sides of the low...first bringing a SW wind threat along
  its southern periphery Friday evening then along its northern
  periphery early Saturday morning into mid afternoon as the low
  sags south and dense arctic air mass floods in from Canada.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds are expected Friday evening and
  night across southeastern WA and into the ID Palouse as well as
  most mountain ridgetops associated with a strengthening low-
  level jet of 45-55 kts. High Res data from UW along with Bufkit
  data indicate the potential for sustained winds of 15-30 mph
  with gusts 35-55 mph for locations across the West Plains,
  Columbia Basin, Palouse, and foothills of the Blue Mtns.
  Mountain gusts from Mission Ridge to the Blue Mtns to the
  Central Panhandle Mtns will also be susceptible to gusts in
  excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds in these areas will be
  between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Confidence high
  that the winds will exist roughly 2-4K feet above the surface
  but lower if these gusts will surface to valley floors. Data
  suggest a moderate threat and wind advisory has been issued.

* North winds will move into northern WA Friday evening and
  continue into Saturday. The strongest winds will be through the
  Okanogan Valley...spilling into the Waterville Plateau and
  western Basin. Winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
  anticipated in these areas. With the air mass change so
  dramatic, I anticipate most north to south oriented valleys
  across Nrn WA will experience breezy conditions. Mountains,
  especially with a north aspect, will also feel gusty winds.

* Precipitation: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will
  fall within the warm sector of the low bringing up to an inch of
  liquid to the mountains of Idaho and a general quarter to three
  quarters of an inch along the Cascade Crest and locations east
  of a line from Colville to Ritzville (outside the typical
  Cascade rain shadow) This will fall as rain below 6000 feet
  initially but snow levels will be crashing to valley floors with
  the arctic frontal passage Friday night. We don`t typically see
  much in the way of snow accumulations with these patterns as the
  deeper moisture gets shoved south before snow levels fall but a
  quick transition to snow will be possible just prior to
  precipitation ending with accumulations generally under an inch.
  A renewed threat for snow will come Saturday mainly focusing
  snow shower activity along the ID Panhandle and East Slopes. At
  this time, snow amounts with this activity will be light with up
  to a few inches in the mountains and less than an inch in the
  valleys. This will be very light and fluffy snow if it falls.

* Temperatures: High temperatures will be in the teens to 20s
  north to 20s and 30s south. Overnight lows will be manageable
  Saturday morning with winds keeping temperatures up somewhat but
  should be very cold Sunday morning single digits to teens)

* Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow in Idaho Friday
  night. Rapid transition to freezing temperatures Saturday
  morning could result in flash freeze of rain on most roadways.
  Strong winds Friday evening into Saturday could result in
  scattered power outages and difficult travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles. Light snow accumulations possible in the ID
  Panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. Very cold
  temperatures during the weekend. /sb

Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night looks on mark with
continued dry and benign conditions as jet stream and associated
stalled front remains to the south and north/northeast flow at low
levels keeps cold air remaining in place. I have lower confidence
in the Monday/Monday night part of the forecast with GFS runs
showing the front/deformation zone to the south moving back
northward as a warm front of sorts that would overrun the cold air
in place allowing for a prolonged period of mostly snow to fall
from it roughly south of a line drawn from the Tri-Cities to Coeur
d` Alene. The ECMWF shows this feature remaining much further
south and not influencing the forecast area and instead shows a
general Northwest to Southeast flow on the east side of the
offshore ridge remaining in place which could steer a minor
shortwave or two down and influence far Southeast Washington and
Northern Idaho with snow but not to the degree or intensity of the
GFS solution. I, and neighboring offices, feel the ECMWF solution
may be the better way to go as it brings back a negatively tilted
ridge that slowly amplifies with an axis close to the coast. The
ridge off the coast solution is what we have had in place for most
of this fall and having it move back in place seems very
reasonable to me. The end result of the ridge moving back in place
would be a gradual slow warming trend as the ridge amplifies and
the axis moves closer to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.
Late Thursday the same favored ECMWF depicts an occluded frontal
zone oriented north to south with a well maintained moisture feed
sweeping up in a southwest to northeast trajectory and overrunning
the slightly warmer yet still cold air in place over the area
which should bring moderate snow to many a lowland and mountain
location mostly independent of elevation. The expectation is the
ridge will likely slow this solution and delay front passage until
Friday or Saturday so have not increased pops for Thursday. Stay
tuned to see if this solution holds true. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions this
evening at all TAF sites. Breezy winds this afternoon will
decrease as the boundary layer decouples tonight but swift
southwest flow will above the boundary layer will promote LLWS
over the eastern TAF sites late tonight and early Friday morning.
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites except KEAT. At KEAT
where a moist low level air mass remains in a protected valley IFR
conditions are likely to return after 06-08Z and persist until
early Friday afternoon. Winds will increase in a showery air mass
Friday afternoon with gusts to 40 KTS possible at the KPUW and
KGEG TAF sites after 20Z.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  50  26  27  10  22 /  30  70  60  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  49  29  29  11  23 /  40  80 100  20  10   0
Pullman        43  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       46  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  70  90  60  20   0
Colville       40  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  26  27   8  20 /  70  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        39  44  29  30  10  21 /  70  90 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     41  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 280034
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
418 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
tonight and Friday but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances are expected as the new work week begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...A somewhat complex flow regime is apparent on
satellite this afternoon. Two Pacific moisture feeds are
perceptible...one feeding into southwest Oregon with the northern
fringe of this feed seeping up into the southeastern
Washington/north Idaho zones and the second fetching into
Vancouver Isle. The southern fetch will provide a fuel source for
mainly spotty showers tonight and into Friday morning into the
Palouse area and the Shoshone County mountains. The northern feed
will slump southward and become better directed into the forecast
area tonight and sag further through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day Friday...driven through by an upper level
trough descending down the British Columbia coast and generating a
surface low under it`s dynamic foot over southern British
Columbia. This low is implied by the baroclinic leaf cloud shield
over central BC and Alberta.

Latest GFS and Nam and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in
evolving this flow regime. The BC surface low will move south and
enter the forecast area Friday morning...deepening as it
does...and move down the Washington/Idaho border. It will be
fueled by the northern deep moisture feed as it does. The presence
of this deepening surface low will help spread the precipitation
shield out into the basin...not just the mountains where the fast
westerly flow would imply a strong orographic component.

Thus the forecast for the next 24 hours will become increasingly
wet. All zones will be subject to light rain...with the best
chance for a significant period of rain on Friday over the
eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and over the
Cascades. Snow levels will remain between 5000 and 6000 feet until
the surface low passes to the south Friday night.

Winds will continue to be a dominant issue through Friday with
model soundings suggesting gust potential to 40 to 50 mph over the
exposed terrain of the eastern basin by Friday afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be issued with the afternoon package for most of
the zones of the eastern basin. This breezy air mass will once
again promote mild temperatures for overnight lows tonight and
Friday high temps. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday: This period will feature a big transition
from wet and mild weather toward cold and dry conditions. As this
transition occurs Friday night into Saturday, anticipate gusty
winds, periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly in the
form of valley rain and high mountain snow), and concluding with
the potential for brief valley snow and potential for a few inches
within the eastern mountains.

* Synoptic Overview: Arctic air currently resides under the
  upper- level trof over Northern British Columbia. This low will
  pick up momentum during the next 24 hours then rapidly
  accelerate southward through the region Friday night into
  Saturday morning. The low will interact with a stalled frontal
  boundary draped along the International border promoting
  cyclogenesis (deepening surface low) and a strong surface low
  (990-994mb) deepens somewhere along the WA/ID border between
  I-90 and Canadian Border. Intense pressure gradients will setup
  on both sides of the low...first bringing a SW wind threat along
  its southern periphery Friday evening then along its northern
  periphery early Saturday morning into mid afternoon as the low
  sags south and dense arctic air mass floods in from Canada.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds are expected Friday evening and
  night across southeastern WA and into the ID Palouse as well as
  most mountain ridgetops associated with a strengthening low-
  level jet of 45-55 kts. High Res data from UW along with Bufkit
  data indicate the potential for sustained winds of 15-30 mph
  with gusts 35-55 mph for locations across the West Plains,
  Columbia Basin, Palouse, and foothills of the Blue Mtns.
  Mountain gusts from Mission Ridge to the Blue Mtns to the
  Central Panhandle Mtns will also be susceptible to gusts in
  excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds in these areas will be
  between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Confidence high
  that the winds will exist roughly 2-4K feet above the surface
  but lower if these gusts will surface to valley floors. Data
  suggest a moderate threat and wind advisory has been issued.

* North winds will move into northern WA Friday evening and
  continue into Saturday. The strongest winds will be through the
  Okanogan Valley...spilling into the Waterville Plateau and
  western Basin. Winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
  anticipated in these areas. With the air mass change so
  dramatic, I anticipate most north to south oriented valleys
  across Nrn WA will experience breezy conditions. Mountains,
  especially with a north aspect, will also feel gusty winds.

* Precipitation: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will
  fall within the warm sector of the low bringing up to an inch of
  liquid to the mountains of Idaho and a general quarter to three
  quarters of an inch along the Cascade Crest and locations east
  of a line from Colville to Ritzville (outside the typical
  Cascade rain shadow) This will fall as rain below 6000 feet
  initially but snow levels will be crashing to valley floors with
  the arctic frontal passage Friday night. We don`t typically see
  much in the way of snow accumulations with these patterns as the
  deeper moisture gets shoved south before snow levels fall but a
  quick transition to snow will be possible just prior to
  precipitation ending with accumulations generally under an inch.
  A renewed threat for snow will come Saturday mainly focusing
  snow shower activity along the ID Panhandle and East Slopes. At
  this time, snow amounts with this activity will be light with up
  to a few inches in the mountains and less than an inch in the
  valleys. This will be very light and fluffy snow if it falls.

* Temperatures: High temperatures will be in the teens to 20s
  north to 20s and 30s south. Overnight lows will be manageable
  Saturday morning with winds keeping temperatures up somewhat but
  should be very cold Sunday morning single digits to teens)

* Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow in Idaho Friday
  night. Rapid transition to freezing temperatures Saturday
  morning could result in flash freeze of rain on most roadways.
  Strong winds Friday evening into Saturday could result in
  scattered power outages and difficult travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles. Light snow accumulations possible in the ID
  Panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. Very cold
  temperatures during the weekend. /sb

Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night looks on mark with
continued dry and benign conditions as jet stream and associated
stalled front remains to the south and north/northeast flow at low
levels keeps cold air remaining in place. I have lower confidence
in the Monday/Monday night part of the forecast with GFS runs
showing the front/deformation zone to the south moving back
northward as a warm front of sorts that would overrun the cold air
in place allowing for a prolonged period of mostly snow to fall
from it roughly south of a line drawn from the Tri-Cities to Coeur
d` Alene. The ECMWF shows this feature remaining much further
south and not influencing the forecast area and instead shows a
general Northwest to Southeast flow on the east side of the
offshore ridge remaining in place which could steer a minor
shortwave or two down and influence far Southeast Washington and
Northern Idaho with snow but not to the degree or intensity of the
GFS solution. I, and neighboring offices, feel the ECMWF solution
may be the better way to go as it brings back a negatively tilted
ridge that slowly amplifies with an axis close to the coast. The
ridge off the coast solution is what we have had in place for most
of this fall and having it move back in place seems very
reasonable to me. The end result of the ridge moving back in place
would be a gradual slow warming trend as the ridge amplifies and
the axis moves closer to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.
Late Thursday the same favored ECMWF depicts an occluded frontal
zone oriented north to south with a well maintained moisture feed
sweeping up in a southwest to northeast trajectory and overrunning
the slightly warmer yet still cold air in place over the area
which should bring moderate snow to many a lowland and mountain
location mostly independent of elevation. The expectation is the
ridge will likely slow this solution and delay front passage until
Friday or Saturday so have not increased pops for Thursday. Stay
tuned to see if this solution holds true. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions this
evening at all TAF sites. Breezy winds this afternoon will
decrease as the boundary layer decouples tonight but swift
southwest flow will above the boundary layer will promote LLWS
over the eastern TAF sites late tonight and early Friday morning.
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites except KEAT. At KEAT
where a moist low level air mass remains in a protected valley IFR
conditions are likely to return after 06-08Z and persist until
early Friday afternoon. Winds will increase in a showery air mass
Friday afternoon with gusts to 40 KTS possible at the KPUW and
KGEG TAF sites after 20Z.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  50  26  27  10  22 /  30  70  60  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  49  29  29  11  23 /  40  80 100  20  10   0
Pullman        43  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       46  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  70  90  60  20   0
Colville       40  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  26  27   8  20 /  70  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        39  44  29  30  10  21 /  70  90 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     41  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280018
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
418 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
tonight and Friday but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances are expected as the new work week begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...A somewhat complex flow regime is apparent on
satellite this afternoon. Two Pacific moisture feeds are
perceptible...one feeding into southwest Oregon with the northern
fringe of this feed seeping up into the southeastern
Washington/north Idaho zones and the second fetching into
Vancouver Isle. The southern fetch will provide a fuel source for
mainly spotty showers tonight and into Friday morning into the
Palouse area and the Shoshone County mountains. The northern feed
will slump southward and become better directed into the forecast
area tonight and sag further through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day Friday...driven through by an upper level
trough descending down the British Columbia coast and generating a
surface low under it`s dynamic foot over southern British
Columbia. This low is implied by the baroclinic leaf cloud shield
over central BC and Alberta.

Latest GFS and Nam and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in
evolving this flow regime. The BC surface low will move south and
enter the forecast area Friday morning...deepening as it
does...and move down the Washington/Idaho border. It will be
fueled by the northern deep moisture feed as it does. The presence
of this deepening surface low will help spread the precipitation
shield out into the basin...not just the mountains where the fast
westerly flow would imply a strong orographic component.

Thus the forecast for the next 24 hours will become increasingly
wet. All zones will be subject to light rain...with the best
chance for a significant period of rain on Friday over the
eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and over the
Cascades. Snow levels will remain between 5000 and 6000 feet until
the surface low passes to the south Friday night.

Winds will continue to be a dominant issue through Friday with
model soundings suggesting gust potential to 40 to 50 mph over the
exposed terrain of the eastern basin by Friday afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be issued with the afternoon package for most of
the zones of the eastern basin. This breezy air mass will once
again promote mild temperatures for overnight lows tonight and
Friday high temps. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday: This period will feature a big transition
from wet and mild weather toward cold and dry conditions. As this
transition occurs Friday night into Saturday, anticipate gusty
winds, periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly in the
form of valley rain and high mountain snow), and concluding with
the potential for brief valley snow and potential for a few inches
within the eastern mountains.

* Synoptic Overview: Arctic air currently resides under the
  upper- level trof over Northern British Columbia. This low will
  pick up momentum during the next 24 hours then rapidly
  accelerate southward through the region Friday night into
  Saturday morning. The low will interact with a stalled frontal
  boundary draped along the International border promoting
  cyclogenesis (deepening surface low) and a strong surface low
  (990-994mb) deepens somewhere along the WA/ID border between
  I-90 and Canadian Border. Intense pressure gradients will setup
  on both sides of the low...first bringing a SW wind threat along
  its southern periphery Friday evening then along its northern
  periphery early Saturday morning into mid afternoon as the low
  sags south and dense arctic air mass floods in from Canada.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds are expected Friday evening and
  night across southeastern WA and into the ID Palouse as well as
  most mountain ridgetops associated with a strengthening low-
  level jet of 45-55 kts. High Res data from UW along with Bufkit
  data indicate the potential for sustained winds of 15-30 mph
  with gusts 35-55 mph for locations across the West Plains,
  Columbia Basin, Palouse, and foothills of the Blue Mtns.
  Mountain gusts from Mission Ridge to the Blue Mtns to the
  Central Panhandle Mtns will also be susceptible to gusts in
  excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds in these areas will be
  between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Confidence high
  that the winds will exist roughly 2-4K feet above the surface
  but lower if these gusts will surface to valley floors. Data
  suggest a moderate threat and wind advisory has been issued.

* North winds will move into northern WA Friday evening and
  continue into Saturday. The strongest winds will be through the
  Okanogan Valley...spilling into the Waterville Plateau and
  western Basin. Winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
  anticipated in these areas. With the air mass change so
  dramatic, I anticipate most north to south oriented valleys
  across Nrn WA will experience breezy conditions. Mountains,
  especially with a north aspect, will also feel gusty winds.

* Precipitation: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will
  fall within the warm sector of the low bringing up to an inch of
  liquid to the mountains of Idaho and a general quarter to three
  quarters of an inch along the Cascade Crest and locations east
  of a line from Colville to Ritzville (outside the typical
  Cascade rain shadow) This will fall as rain below 6000 feet
  initially but snow levels will be crashing to valley floors with
  the arctic frontal passage Friday night. We don`t typically see
  much in the way of snow accumulations with these patterns as the
  deeper moisture gets shoved south before snow levels fall but a
  quick transition to snow will be possible just prior to
  precipitation ending with accumulations generally under an inch.
  A renewed threat for snow will come Saturday mainly focusing
  snow shower activity along the ID Panhandle and East Slopes. At
  this time, snow amounts with this activity will be light with up
  to a few inches in the mountains and less than an inch in the
  valleys. This will be very light and fluffy snow if it falls.

* Temperatures: High temperatures will be in the teens to 20s
  north to 20s and 30s south. Overnight lows will be manageable
  Saturday morning with winds keeping temperatures up somewhat but
  should be very cold Sunday morning single digits to teens)

* Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow in Idaho Friday
  night. Rapid transition to freezing temperatures Saturday
  morning could result in flash freeze of rain on most roadways.
  Strong winds Friday evening into Saturday could result in
  scattered power outages and difficult travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles. Light snow accumulations possible in the ID
  Panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. Very cold
  temperatures during the weekend. /sb

Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night looks on mark with
continued dry and benign conditions as jet stream and associated
stalled front remains to the south and north/northeast flow at low
levels keeps cold air remaining in place. I have lower confidence
in the Monday/Monday night part of the forecast with GFS runs
showing the front/deformation zone to the south moving back
northward as a warm front of sorts that would overrun the cold air
in place allowing for a prolonged period of mostly snow to fall
from it roughly south of a line drawn from the Tri-Cities to Coeur
d` Alene. The ECMWF shows this feature remaining much further
south and not influencing the forecast area and instead shows a
general Northwest to Southeast flow on the east side of the
offshore ridge remaining in place which could steer a minor
shortwave or two down and influence far Southeast Washington and
Northern Idaho with snow but not to the degree or intensity of the
GFS solution. I, and neighboring offices, feel the ECMWF solution
may be the better way to go as it brings back a negatively tilted
ridge that slowly amplifies with an axis close to the coast. The
ridge off the coast solution is what we have had in place for most
of this fall and having it move back in place seems very
reasonable to me. The end result of the ridge moving back in place
would be a gradual slow warming trend as the ridge amplifies and
the axis moves closer to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.
Late Thursday the same favored ECMWF depicts an occluded frontal
zone oriented north to south with a well maintained moisture feed
sweeping up in a southwest to northeast trajectory and overrunning
the slightly warmer yet still cold air in place over the area
which should bring moderate snow to many a lowland and mountain
location mostly independent of elevation. The expectation is the
ridge will likely slow this solution and delay front passage until
Friday or Saturday so have not increased pops for Thursday. Stay
tuned to see if this solution holds true. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions this
evening at all TAF sites. Breezy winds this afternoon will
decrease as the boundary layer decouples tonight but swift
southwest flow will above the boundary layer will promote LLWS
over the eastern TAF sites late tonight and early Friday morning.
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites except KEAT. At KEAT
where a moist low level air mass remains in a protected valley IFR
conditions are likely to return after 06-08Z and persist until
early Friday afternoon. Winds will increase in a showery air mass
Friday afternoon with gusts to 40 KTS possible at the KPUW and
KGEG TAF sites after 20Z.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  50  26  27  10  22 /  30  70  60  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  49  29  29  11  23 /  40  80 100  20  10   0
Pullman        43  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       46  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  70  90  60  20   0
Colville       40  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  26  27   8  20 /  70  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        39  44  29  30  10  21 /  70  90 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     41  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280018
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
418 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
tonight and Friday but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances are expected as the new work week begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...A somewhat complex flow regime is apparent on
satellite this afternoon. Two Pacific moisture feeds are
perceptible...one feeding into southwest Oregon with the northern
fringe of this feed seeping up into the southeastern
Washington/north Idaho zones and the second fetching into
Vancouver Isle. The southern fetch will provide a fuel source for
mainly spotty showers tonight and into Friday morning into the
Palouse area and the Shoshone County mountains. The northern feed
will slump southward and become better directed into the forecast
area tonight and sag further through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day Friday...driven through by an upper level
trough descending down the British Columbia coast and generating a
surface low under it`s dynamic foot over southern British
Columbia. This low is implied by the baroclinic leaf cloud shield
over central BC and Alberta.

Latest GFS and Nam and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in
evolving this flow regime. The BC surface low will move south and
enter the forecast area Friday morning...deepening as it
does...and move down the Washington/Idaho border. It will be
fueled by the northern deep moisture feed as it does. The presence
of this deepening surface low will help spread the precipitation
shield out into the basin...not just the mountains where the fast
westerly flow would imply a strong orographic component.

Thus the forecast for the next 24 hours will become increasingly
wet. All zones will be subject to light rain...with the best
chance for a significant period of rain on Friday over the
eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and over the
Cascades. Snow levels will remain between 5000 and 6000 feet until
the surface low passes to the south Friday night.

Winds will continue to be a dominant issue through Friday with
model soundings suggesting gust potential to 40 to 50 mph over the
exposed terrain of the eastern basin by Friday afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be issued with the afternoon package for most of
the zones of the eastern basin. This breezy air mass will once
again promote mild temperatures for overnight lows tonight and
Friday high temps. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday: This period will feature a big transition
from wet and mild weather toward cold and dry conditions. As this
transition occurs Friday night into Saturday, anticipate gusty
winds, periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly in the
form of valley rain and high mountain snow), and concluding with
the potential for brief valley snow and potential for a few inches
within the eastern mountains.

* Synoptic Overview: Arctic air currently resides under the
  upper- level trof over Northern British Columbia. This low will
  pick up momentum during the next 24 hours then rapidly
  accelerate southward through the region Friday night into
  Saturday morning. The low will interact with a stalled frontal
  boundary draped along the International border promoting
  cyclogenesis (deepening surface low) and a strong surface low
  (990-994mb) deepens somewhere along the WA/ID border between
  I-90 and Canadian Border. Intense pressure gradients will setup
  on both sides of the low...first bringing a SW wind threat along
  its southern periphery Friday evening then along its northern
  periphery early Saturday morning into mid afternoon as the low
  sags south and dense arctic air mass floods in from Canada.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds are expected Friday evening and
  night across southeastern WA and into the ID Palouse as well as
  most mountain ridgetops associated with a strengthening low-
  level jet of 45-55 kts. High Res data from UW along with Bufkit
  data indicate the potential for sustained winds of 15-30 mph
  with gusts 35-55 mph for locations across the West Plains,
  Columbia Basin, Palouse, and foothills of the Blue Mtns.
  Mountain gusts from Mission Ridge to the Blue Mtns to the
  Central Panhandle Mtns will also be susceptible to gusts in
  excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds in these areas will be
  between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Confidence high
  that the winds will exist roughly 2-4K feet above the surface
  but lower if these gusts will surface to valley floors. Data
  suggest a moderate threat and wind advisory has been issued.

* North winds will move into northern WA Friday evening and
  continue into Saturday. The strongest winds will be through the
  Okanogan Valley...spilling into the Waterville Plateau and
  western Basin. Winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
  anticipated in these areas. With the air mass change so
  dramatic, I anticipate most north to south oriented valleys
  across Nrn WA will experience breezy conditions. Mountains,
  especially with a north aspect, will also feel gusty winds.

* Precipitation: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will
  fall within the warm sector of the low bringing up to an inch of
  liquid to the mountains of Idaho and a general quarter to three
  quarters of an inch along the Cascade Crest and locations east
  of a line from Colville to Ritzville (outside the typical
  Cascade rain shadow) This will fall as rain below 6000 feet
  initially but snow levels will be crashing to valley floors with
  the arctic frontal passage Friday night. We don`t typically see
  much in the way of snow accumulations with these patterns as the
  deeper moisture gets shoved south before snow levels fall but a
  quick transition to snow will be possible just prior to
  precipitation ending with accumulations generally under an inch.
  A renewed threat for snow will come Saturday mainly focusing
  snow shower activity along the ID Panhandle and East Slopes. At
  this time, snow amounts with this activity will be light with up
  to a few inches in the mountains and less than an inch in the
  valleys. This will be very light and fluffy snow if it falls.

* Temperatures: High temperatures will be in the teens to 20s
  north to 20s and 30s south. Overnight lows will be manageable
  Saturday morning with winds keeping temperatures up somewhat but
  should be very cold Sunday morning single digits to teens)

* Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow in Idaho Friday
  night. Rapid transition to freezing temperatures Saturday
  morning could result in flash freeze of rain on most roadways.
  Strong winds Friday evening into Saturday could result in
  scattered power outages and difficult travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles. Light snow accumulations possible in the ID
  Panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. Very cold
  temperatures during the weekend. /sb

Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night looks on mark with
continued dry and benign conditions as jet stream and associated
stalled front remains to the south and north/northeast flow at low
levels keeps cold air remaining in place. I have lower confidence
in the Monday/Monday night part of the forecast with GFS runs
showing the front/deformation zone to the south moving back
northward as a warm front of sorts that would overrun the cold air
in place allowing for a prolonged period of mostly snow to fall
from it roughly south of a line drawn from the Tri-Cities to Coeur
d` Alene. The ECMWF shows this feature remaining much further
south and not influencing the forecast area and instead shows a
general Northwest to Southeast flow on the east side of the
offshore ridge remaining in place which could steer a minor
shortwave or two down and influence far Southeast Washington and
Northern Idaho with snow but not to the degree or intensity of the
GFS solution. I, and neighboring offices, feel the ECMWF solution
may be the better way to go as it brings back a negatively tilted
ridge that slowly amplifies with an axis close to the coast. The
ridge off the coast solution is what we have had in place for most
of this fall and having it move back in place seems very
reasonable to me. The end result of the ridge moving back in place
would be a gradual slow warming trend as the ridge amplifies and
the axis moves closer to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.
Late Thursday the same favored ECMWF depicts an occluded frontal
zone oriented north to south with a well maintained moisture feed
sweeping up in a southwest to northeast trajectory and overrunning
the slightly warmer yet still cold air in place over the area
which should bring moderate snow to many a lowland and mountain
location mostly independent of elevation. The expectation is the
ridge will likely slow this solution and delay front passage until
Friday or Saturday so have not increased pops for Thursday. Stay
tuned to see if this solution holds true. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions this
evening at all TAF sites. Breezy winds this afternoon will
decrease as the boundary layer decouples tonight but swift
southwest flow will above the boundary layer will promote LLWS
over the eastern TAF sites late tonight and early Friday morning.
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites except KEAT. At KEAT
where a moist low level air mass remains in a protected valley IFR
conditions are likely to return after 06-08Z and persist until
early Friday afternoon. Winds will increase in a showery air mass
Friday afternoon with gusts to 40 KTS possible at the KPUW and
KGEG TAF sites after 20Z.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  50  26  27  10  22 /  30  70  60  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  49  29  29  11  23 /  40  80 100  20  10   0
Pullman        43  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       46  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  70  90  60  20   0
Colville       40  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  26  27   8  20 /  70  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        39  44  29  30  10  21 /  70  90 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     41  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 272335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
335 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
tonight and Friday but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances are expected as the new work week begins.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...A somewhat complex flow regime is apparent on
satellite this afternoon. Two Pacific moisture feeds are
perceptible...one feeding into southwest Oregon with the northern
fringe of this feed seeping up into the southeastern
Washington/north Idaho zones and the second fetching into
Vancouver Isle. The southern fetch will provide a fuel source for
mainly spotty showers tonight and into Friday morning into the
Palouse area and the Shoshone County mountains. The northern feed
will slump southward and become better directed into the forecast
area tonight and sag further through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day Friday...driven through by an upper level
trough descending down the British Columbia coast and generating a
surface low under it`s dynamic foot over southern British
Columbia. This low is implied by the baroclinic leaf cloud shield
over central BC and Alberta.

Latest GFS and Nam and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in
evolving this flow regime. The BC surface low will move south and
enter the forecast area Friday morning...deepening as it
does...and move down the Washington/Idaho border. It will be
fueled by the northern deep moisture feed as it does. The presence
of this deepening surface low will help spread the precipitation
shield out into the basin...not just the mountains where the fast
westerly flow would imply a strong orographic component.

Thus the forecast for the next 24 hours will become increasingly
wet. All zones will be subject to light rain...with the best
chance for a significant period of rain on Friday over the
eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and over the
Cascades. Snow levels will remain between 5000 and 6000 feet until
the surface low passes to the south Friday night.

Winds will continue to be a dominant issue through Friday with
model soundings suggesting gust potential to 40 to 50 mph over the
exposed terrain of the eastern basin by Friday afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be issued with the afternoon package for most of
the zones of the eastern basin. This breezy air mass will once
again promote mild temperatures for overnight lows tonight and
Friday high temps. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday: This period will feature a big transition
from wet and mild weather toward cold and dry conditions. As this
transition occurs Friday night into Saturday, anticipate gusty
winds, periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly in the
form of valley rain and high mountain snow), and concluding with
the potential for brief valley snow and potential for a few inches
within the eastern mountains.

* Synoptic Overview: Arctic air currently resides under the
  upper- level trof over Northern British Columbia. This low will
  pick up momentum during the next 24 hours then rapidly
  accelerate southward through the region Friday night into
  Saturday morning. The low will interact with a stalled frontal
  boundary draped along the International border promoting
  cyclogenesis (deepening surface low) and a strong surface low
  (990-994mb) deepens somewhere along the WA/ID border between
  I-90 and Canadian Border. Intense pressure gradients will setup
  on both sides of the low...first bringing a SW wind threat along
  its southern periphery Friday evening then along its northern
  periphery early Saturday morning into mid afternoon as the low
  sags south and dense arctic air mass floods in from Canada.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds are expected Friday evening and
  night across southeastern WA and into the ID Palouse as well as
  most mountain ridgetops associated with a strengthening low-
  level jet of 45-55 kts. High Res data from UW along with Bufkit
  data indicate the potential for sustained winds of 15-30 mph
  with gusts 35-55 mph for locations across the West Plains,
  Columbia Basin, Palouse, and foothills of the Blue Mtns.
  Mountain gusts from Mission Ridge to the Blue Mtns to the
  Central Panhandle Mtns will also be susceptible to gusts in
  excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds in these areas will be
  between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Confidence high
  that the winds will exist roughly 2-4K feet above the surface
  but lower if these gusts will surface to valley floors. Data
  suggest a moderate threat and wind advisory has been issued.

* North winds will move into northern WA Friday evening and
  continue into Saturday. The strongest winds will be through the
  Okanogan Valley...spilling into the Waterville Plateau and
  western Basin. Winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
  anticipated in these areas. With the air mass change so
  dramatic, I anticipate most north to south oriented valleys
  across Nrn WA will experience breezy conditions. Mountains,
  especially with a north aspect, will also feel gusty winds.

* Precipitation: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will
  fall within the warm sector of the low bringing up to an inch of
  liquid to the mountains of Idaho and a general quarter to three
  quarters of an inch along the Cascade Crest and locations east
  of a line from Colville to Ritzville (outside the typical
  Cascade rain shadow) This will fall as rain below 6000 feet
  initially but snow levels will be crashing to valley floors with
  the arctic frontal passage Friday night. We don`t typically see
  much in the way of snow accumulations with these patterns as the
  deeper moisture gets shoved south before snow levels fall but a
  quick transition to snow will be possible just prior to
  precipitation ending with accumulations generally under an inch.
  A renewed threat for snow will come Saturday mainly focusing
  snow shower activity along the ID Panhandle and East Slopes. At
  this time, snow amounts with this activity will be light with up
  to a few inches in the mountains and less than an inch in the
  valleys. This will be very light and fluffy snow if it falls.

* Temperatures: High temperatures will be in the teens to 20s
  north to 20s and 30s south. Overnight lows will be manageable
  Saturday morning with winds keeping temperatures up somewhat but
  should be very cold Sunday morning single digits to teens)

* Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow in Idaho Friday
  night. Rapid transition to freezing temperatures Saturday
  morning could result in flash freeze of rain on most roadways.
  Strong winds Friday evening into Saturday could result in
  scattered power outages and difficult travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles. Light snow accumulations possible in the ID
  Panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. Very cold
  temperatures during the weekend. /sb

Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night looks on mark with
continued dry and benign conditions as jet stream and associated
stalled front remains to the south and north/northeast flow at low
levels keeps cold air remaining in place. I have lower confidence
in the Monday/Monday night part of the forecast with GFS runs
showing the front/deformation zone to the south moving back
northward as a warm front of sorts that would overrun the cold air
in place allowing for a prolonged period of mostly snow to fall
from it roughly south of a line drawn from the Tri-Cities to Coeur
d` Alene. The ECMWF shows this feature remaining much further
south and not influencing the forecast area and instead shows a
general Northwest to Southeast flow on the east side of the
offshore ridge remaining in place which could steer a minor
shortwave or two down and influence far Southeast Washington and
Northern Idaho with snow but not to the degree or intensity of the
GFS solution. I, and neighboring offices, feel the ECMWF solution
may be the better way to go as it brings back a negatively tilted
ridge that slowly amplifies with an axis close to the coast. The
ridge off the coast solution is what we have had in place for most
of this fall and having it move back in place seems very
reasonable to me. The end result of the ridge moving back in place
would be a gradual slow warming trend as the ridge amplifies and
the axis moves closer to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.
Late Thursday the same favored ECMWF depicts an occluded frontal
zone oriented north to south with a well maintained moisture feed
sweeping up in a southwest to northeast trajectory and overrunning
the slightly warmer yet still cold air in place over the area
which should bring moderate snow to many a lowland and mountain
location mostly independent of elevation. The expectation is the
ridge will likely slow this solution and delay front passage until
Friday or Saturday so have not increased pops for Thursday. Stay
tuned to see if this solution holds true. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions this
evening at all TAF sites. Breezy winds this afternoon will
decrease as the boundary layer decouples tonight but swift
southwest flow will above the boundary layer will promote LLWS
over the eastern TAF sites late tonight and early Friday morning.
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites except KEAT. At KEAT
where a moist low level air mass remains in a protected valley IFR
conditions are likely to return after 06-08Z and persist until
early Friday afternoon. Winds will increase in a showery air mass
Friday afternoon with gusts to 40 KTS possible at the KPUW and
KGEG TAF sites after 20Z.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  50  26  27  10  22 /  30  70  60  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  49  29  29  11  23 /  40  80 100  20  10   0
Pullman        43  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       46  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  70  90  60  20   0
Colville       40  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  26  27   8  20 /  70  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        39  44  29  30  10  21 /  70  90 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     41  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 272226
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
tonight and Friday but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances are expected as the new work week begins.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...A somewhat complex flow regime is apparent on
satellite this afternoon. Two Pacific moisture feeds are
perceptible...one feeding into southwest Oregon with the northern
fringe of this feed seeping up into the southeastern
Washington/north Idaho zones and the second fetching into
Vancouver Isle. The southern fetch will provide a fuel source for
mainly spotty showers tonight and into Friday morning into the
Palouse area and the Shoshone County mountains. The northern feed
will slump southward and become better directed into the forecast
area tonight and sag further through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day Friday...driven through by an upper level
trough descending down the British Columbia coast and generating a
surface low under it`s dynamic foot over southern British
Columbia. This low is implied by the baroclinic leaf cloud shield
over central BC and Alberta.

Latest GFS and Nam and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in
evolving this flow regime. The BC surface low will move south and
enter the forecast area Friday morning...deepening as it
does...and move down the Washington/Idaho border. It will be
fueled by the northern deep moisture feed as it does. The presence
of this deepening surface low will help spread the precipitation
shield out into the basin...not just the mountains where the fast
westerly flow would imply a strong orographic component.

Thus the forecast for the next 24 hours will become increasingly
wet. All zones will be subject to light rain...with the best
chance for a significant period of rain on Friday over the
eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and over the
Cascades. Snow levels will remain between 5000 and 6000 feet until
the surface low passes to the south Friday night.

Winds will continue to be a dominant issue through Friday with
model soundings suggesting gust potential to 40 to 50 mph over the
exposed terrain of the eastern basin by Friday afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be issued with the afternoon package for most of
the zones of the eastern basin. This breezy air mass will once
again promote mild temperatures for overnight lows tonight and
Friday high temps. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday: This period will feature a big transition
from wet and mild weather toward cold and dry conditions. As this
transition occurs Friday night into Saturday, anticipate gusty
winds, periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly in the
form of valley rain and high mountain snow), and concluding with
the potential for brief valley snow and potential for a few inches
within the eastern mountains.

* Synoptic Overview: Arctic air currently resides under the
  upper- level trof over Northern British Columbia. This low will
  pick up momentum during the next 24 hours then rapidly
  accelerate southward through the region Friday night into
  Saturday morning. The low will interact with a stalled frontal
  boundary draped along the International border promoting
  cyclogenesis (deepening surface low) and a strong surface low
  (990-994mb) deepens somewhere along the WA/ID border between
  I-90 and Canadian Border. Intense pressure gradients will setup
  on both sides of the low...first bringing a SW wind threat along
  its southern periphery Friday evening then along its northern
  periphery early Saturday morning into mid afternoon as the low
  sags south and dense arctic air mass floods in from Canada.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds are expected Friday evening and
  night across southeastern WA and into the ID Palouse as well as
  most mountain ridgetops associated with a strengthening low-
  level jet of 45-55 kts. High Res data from UW along with Bufkit
  data indicate the potential for sustained winds of 15-30 mph
  with gusts 35-55 mph for locations across the West Plains,
  Columbia Basin, Palouse, and foothills of the Blue Mtns.
  Mountain gusts from Mission Ridge to the Blue Mtns to the
  Central Panhandle Mtns will also be susceptible to gusts in
  excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds in these areas will be
  between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Confidence high
  that the winds will exist roughly 2-4K feet above the surface
  but lower if these gusts will surface to valley floors. Data
  suggest a moderate threat and wind advisory has been issued.

* North winds will move into northern WA Friday evening and
  continue into Saturday. The strongest winds will be through the
  Okanogan Valley...spilling into the Waterville Plateau and
  western Basin. Winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
  anticipated in these areas. With the air mass change so
  dramatic, I anticipate most north to south oriented valleys
  across Nrn WA will experience breezy conditions. Mountains,
  especially with a north aspect, will also feel gusty winds.

* Precipitation: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will
  fall within the warm sector of the low bringing up to an inch of
  liquid to the mountains of Idaho and a general quarter to three
  quarters of an inch along the Cascade Crest and locations east
  of a line from Colville to Ritzville (outside the typical
  Cascade rain shadow) This will fall as rain below 6000 feet
  initially but snow levels will be crashing to valley floors with
  the arctic frontal passage Friday night. We don`t typically see
  much in the way of snow accumulations with these patterns as the
  deeper moisture gets shoved south before snow levels fall but a
  quick transition to snow will be possible just prior to
  precipitation ending with accumulations generally under an inch.
  A renewed threat for snow will come Saturday mainly focusing
  snow shower activity along the ID Panhandle and East Slopes. At
  this time, snow amounts with this activity will be light with up
  to a few inches in the mountains and less than an inch in the
  valleys. This will be very light and fluffy snow if it falls.

* Temperatures: High temperatures will be in the teens to 20s
  north to 20s and 30s south. Overnight lows will be manageable
  Saturday morning with winds keeping temperatures up somewhat but
  should be very cold Sunday morning single digits to teens)

* Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow in Idaho Friday
  night. Rapid transition to freezing temperatures Saturday
  morning could result in flash freeze of rain on most roadways.
  Strong winds Friday evening into Saturday could result in
  scattered power outages and difficult travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles. Light snow accumulations possible in the ID
  Panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. Very cold
  temperatures during the weekend. /sb

Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night looks on mark with
continued dry and benign conditions as jet stream and associated
stalled front remains to the south and north/northeast flow at low
levels keeps cold air remaining in place. I have lower confidence
in the Monday/Monday night part of the forecast with GFS runs
showing the front/deformation zone to the south moving back
northward as a warm front of sorts that would overrun the cold air
in place allowing for a prolonged period of mostly snow to fall
from it roughly south of a line drawn from the Tri-Cities to Coeur
d` Alene. The ECMWF shows this feature remaining much further
south and not influencing the forecast area and instead shows a
general Northwest to Southeast flow on the east side of the
offshore ridge remaining in place which could steer a minor
shortwave or two down and influence far Southeast Washington and
Northern Idaho with snow but not to the degree or intensity of the
GFS solution. I, and neighboring offices, feel the ECMWF solution
may be the better way to go as it brings back a negatively tilted
ridge that slowly amplifies with an axis close to the coast. The
ridge off the coast solution is what we have had in place for most
of this fall and having it move back in place seems very
reasonable to me. The end result of the ridge moving back in place
would be a gradual slow warming trend as the ridge amplifies and
the axis moves closer to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.
Late Thursday the same favored ECMWF depicts an occluded frontal
zone oriented north to south with a well maintained moisture feed
sweeping up in a southwest to northeast trajectory and overrunning
the slightly warmer yet still cold air in place over the area
which should bring moderate snow to many a lowland and mountain
location mostly independent of elevation. The expectation is the
ridge will likely slow this solution and delay front passage until
Friday or Saturday so have not increased pops for Thursday. Stay
tuned to see if this solution holds true. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions today at
all TAF sites. Model soundings indicate strong southwest flow
above a morning inversion so LLWS will be included at the eastern
TAF sites until 19-20Z...before these winds mix down to the
surface as breezy and gusty southwest winds especially over the
eastern TAF sites. The KEAT TAF site is in a very protected
location tucked against the cascades and will be slow to mix out
current LIFR conditions...with a brief MVFR break period possible
from 22Z to this evening when IFR conditions will likely return.
The confidence level for this improvement is moderate. A deeper
feed of moisture will move into the region tonight with showers
developing by 12Z over the eastern TAf sites.


NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  50  26  27  10  22 /  30  70  60  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  49  29  29  11  23 /  40  80 100  20  10   0
Pullman        43  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       46  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  70  90  60  20   0
Colville       40  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  26  27   8  20 /  70  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        39  44  29  30  10  21 /  70  90 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     41  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 272226
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and breezy weather pattern will envelope the region
tonight and Friday but snow levels will remain above pass levels
for motorists traveling on Friday. The arrival of a very cold and
windy arctic front Friday Night into Saturday will bring winter
driving conditions to the mountain passes and much cooler weather
for the weekend. Cold conditions with a few minor snow bearing
weather disturbances are expected as the new work week begins.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...A somewhat complex flow regime is apparent on
satellite this afternoon. Two Pacific moisture feeds are
perceptible...one feeding into southwest Oregon with the northern
fringe of this feed seeping up into the southeastern
Washington/north Idaho zones and the second fetching into
Vancouver Isle. The southern fetch will provide a fuel source for
mainly spotty showers tonight and into Friday morning into the
Palouse area and the Shoshone County mountains. The northern feed
will slump southward and become better directed into the forecast
area tonight and sag further through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day Friday...driven through by an upper level
trough descending down the British Columbia coast and generating a
surface low under it`s dynamic foot over southern British
Columbia. This low is implied by the baroclinic leaf cloud shield
over central BC and Alberta.

Latest GFS and Nam and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in
evolving this flow regime. The BC surface low will move south and
enter the forecast area Friday morning...deepening as it
does...and move down the Washington/Idaho border. It will be
fueled by the northern deep moisture feed as it does. The presence
of this deepening surface low will help spread the precipitation
shield out into the basin...not just the mountains where the fast
westerly flow would imply a strong orographic component.

Thus the forecast for the next 24 hours will become increasingly
wet. All zones will be subject to light rain...with the best
chance for a significant period of rain on Friday over the
eastern and northern portions of the forecast area and over the
Cascades. Snow levels will remain between 5000 and 6000 feet until
the surface low passes to the south Friday night.

Winds will continue to be a dominant issue through Friday with
model soundings suggesting gust potential to 40 to 50 mph over the
exposed terrain of the eastern basin by Friday afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be issued with the afternoon package for most of
the zones of the eastern basin. This breezy air mass will once
again promote mild temperatures for overnight lows tonight and
Friday high temps. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Sunday: This period will feature a big transition
from wet and mild weather toward cold and dry conditions. As this
transition occurs Friday night into Saturday, anticipate gusty
winds, periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly in the
form of valley rain and high mountain snow), and concluding with
the potential for brief valley snow and potential for a few inches
within the eastern mountains.

* Synoptic Overview: Arctic air currently resides under the
  upper- level trof over Northern British Columbia. This low will
  pick up momentum during the next 24 hours then rapidly
  accelerate southward through the region Friday night into
  Saturday morning. The low will interact with a stalled frontal
  boundary draped along the International border promoting
  cyclogenesis (deepening surface low) and a strong surface low
  (990-994mb) deepens somewhere along the WA/ID border between
  I-90 and Canadian Border. Intense pressure gradients will setup
  on both sides of the low...first bringing a SW wind threat along
  its southern periphery Friday evening then along its northern
  periphery early Saturday morning into mid afternoon as the low
  sags south and dense arctic air mass floods in from Canada.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds are expected Friday evening and
  night across southeastern WA and into the ID Palouse as well as
  most mountain ridgetops associated with a strengthening low-
  level jet of 45-55 kts. High Res data from UW along with Bufkit
  data indicate the potential for sustained winds of 15-30 mph
  with gusts 35-55 mph for locations across the West Plains,
  Columbia Basin, Palouse, and foothills of the Blue Mtns.
  Mountain gusts from Mission Ridge to the Blue Mtns to the
  Central Panhandle Mtns will also be susceptible to gusts in
  excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds in these areas will be
  between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Confidence high
  that the winds will exist roughly 2-4K feet above the surface
  but lower if these gusts will surface to valley floors. Data
  suggest a moderate threat and wind advisory has been issued.

* North winds will move into northern WA Friday evening and
  continue into Saturday. The strongest winds will be through the
  Okanogan Valley...spilling into the Waterville Plateau and
  western Basin. Winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
  anticipated in these areas. With the air mass change so
  dramatic, I anticipate most north to south oriented valleys
  across Nrn WA will experience breezy conditions. Mountains,
  especially with a north aspect, will also feel gusty winds.

* Precipitation: Moderate to locally heavy precipitation will
  fall within the warm sector of the low bringing up to an inch of
  liquid to the mountains of Idaho and a general quarter to three
  quarters of an inch along the Cascade Crest and locations east
  of a line from Colville to Ritzville (outside the typical
  Cascade rain shadow) This will fall as rain below 6000 feet
  initially but snow levels will be crashing to valley floors with
  the arctic frontal passage Friday night. We don`t typically see
  much in the way of snow accumulations with these patterns as the
  deeper moisture gets shoved south before snow levels fall but a
  quick transition to snow will be possible just prior to
  precipitation ending with accumulations generally under an inch.
  A renewed threat for snow will come Saturday mainly focusing
  snow shower activity along the ID Panhandle and East Slopes. At
  this time, snow amounts with this activity will be light with up
  to a few inches in the mountains and less than an inch in the
  valleys. This will be very light and fluffy snow if it falls.

* Temperatures: High temperatures will be in the teens to 20s
  north to 20s and 30s south. Overnight lows will be manageable
  Saturday morning with winds keeping temperatures up somewhat but
  should be very cold Sunday morning single digits to teens)

* Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow in Idaho Friday
  night. Rapid transition to freezing temperatures Saturday
  morning could result in flash freeze of rain on most roadways.
  Strong winds Friday evening into Saturday could result in
  scattered power outages and difficult travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles. Light snow accumulations possible in the ID
  Panhandle Friday night into Saturday morning. Very cold
  temperatures during the weekend. /sb

Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night looks on mark with
continued dry and benign conditions as jet stream and associated
stalled front remains to the south and north/northeast flow at low
levels keeps cold air remaining in place. I have lower confidence
in the Monday/Monday night part of the forecast with GFS runs
showing the front/deformation zone to the south moving back
northward as a warm front of sorts that would overrun the cold air
in place allowing for a prolonged period of mostly snow to fall
from it roughly south of a line drawn from the Tri-Cities to Coeur
d` Alene. The ECMWF shows this feature remaining much further
south and not influencing the forecast area and instead shows a
general Northwest to Southeast flow on the east side of the
offshore ridge remaining in place which could steer a minor
shortwave or two down and influence far Southeast Washington and
Northern Idaho with snow but not to the degree or intensity of the
GFS solution. I, and neighboring offices, feel the ECMWF solution
may be the better way to go as it brings back a negatively tilted
ridge that slowly amplifies with an axis close to the coast. The
ridge off the coast solution is what we have had in place for most
of this fall and having it move back in place seems very
reasonable to me. The end result of the ridge moving back in place
would be a gradual slow warming trend as the ridge amplifies and
the axis moves closer to Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.
Late Thursday the same favored ECMWF depicts an occluded frontal
zone oriented north to south with a well maintained moisture feed
sweeping up in a southwest to northeast trajectory and overrunning
the slightly warmer yet still cold air in place over the area
which should bring moderate snow to many a lowland and mountain
location mostly independent of elevation. The expectation is the
ridge will likely slow this solution and delay front passage until
Friday or Saturday so have not increased pops for Thursday. Stay
tuned to see if this solution holds true. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions today at
all TAF sites. Model soundings indicate strong southwest flow
above a morning inversion so LLWS will be included at the eastern
TAF sites until 19-20Z...before these winds mix down to the
surface as breezy and gusty southwest winds especially over the
eastern TAF sites. The KEAT TAF site is in a very protected
location tucked against the cascades and will be slow to mix out
current LIFR conditions...with a brief MVFR break period possible
from 22Z to this evening when IFR conditions will likely return.
The confidence level for this improvement is moderate. A deeper
feed of moisture will move into the region tonight with showers
developing by 12Z over the eastern TAf sites.


NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  50  26  27  10  22 /  30  70  60  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  49  29  29  11  23 /  40  80 100  20  10   0
Pullman        43  53  31  32  11  25 /  60  90 100  50  10   0
Lewiston       46  57  37  38  21  28 /  50  70  90  60  20   0
Colville       40  47  22  23   4  21 /  40  70  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  26  27   8  20 /  70  90 100  20  10   0
Kellogg        39  44  29  30  10  21 /  70  90 100  50  10   0
Moses Lake     41  55  27  29   9  24 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      41  49  29  30  13  23 /  20  30  10  10   0   0
Omak           37  46  17  19   1  19 /  20  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to Midnight PST Friday Night for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 271809
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1009 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with a few mainly
mountain showers. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning forecast update addresses high temperature forecast for
today and pruning back precipitation probabilities as well as
increasing expected wind speeds on the exposed basin terrain. A
fast westerly flow in the mid levels should promote a well
defined rain shadow off the Cascades...and similarly fast flow in
the lower levels will promote a breezy and gusty day over much of
the region. This well mixed air mass will also allow temperatures
to reach very mild readings today. The exception to all of this
will be the immediate lee of the Cascades in the Columbia River
valley where moist boundary level air is locked under an inversion
and will be slow to scrub in these protected locations despite
swift flow aloft. Still...some gradual improvement is likely this
afternoon with the inversion slowly eroding from the top
down...although any sunbreaks may be brief before nightfall
promotes a return to the soup. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions today at
all TAF sites. Model soundings indicate strong southwest flow
above a morning inversion so LLWS will be included at the eastern
TAF sites until 19-20Z...before these winds mix down to the
surface as breezy and gusty southwest winds especially over the
eastern TAF sites. The KEAT TAF site is in a very protected
location tucked against the cascades and will be slow to mix out
current LIFR conditions...with a brief MVFR break period possible
from 22Z to this evening when IFR conditions will likely return.
The confidence level for this improvement is moderate. A deeper
feed of moisture will move into the region tonight with showers
developing by 12Z over the eastern TAf sites.


NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  41  50  27  27  12 /  10  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  41  49  29  29  12 /  20  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        57  43  53  32  32  16 /  20  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       57  46  56  38  38  23 /  10  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       46  40  47  22  22   7 /  20  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      47  38  45  26  26   8 /  40  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  60  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     57  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      48  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  10  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271809
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1009 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with a few mainly
mountain showers. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning forecast update addresses high temperature forecast for
today and pruning back precipitation probabilities as well as
increasing expected wind speeds on the exposed basin terrain. A
fast westerly flow in the mid levels should promote a well
defined rain shadow off the Cascades...and similarly fast flow in
the lower levels will promote a breezy and gusty day over much of
the region. This well mixed air mass will also allow temperatures
to reach very mild readings today. The exception to all of this
will be the immediate lee of the Cascades in the Columbia River
valley where moist boundary level air is locked under an inversion
and will be slow to scrub in these protected locations despite
swift flow aloft. Still...some gradual improvement is likely this
afternoon with the inversion slowly eroding from the top
down...although any sunbreaks may be brief before nightfall
promotes a return to the soup. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Swift westerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere
will promote a rain shadow with generally dry conditions today at
all TAF sites. Model soundings indicate strong southwest flow
above a morning inversion so LLWS will be included at the eastern
TAF sites until 19-20Z...before these winds mix down to the
surface as breezy and gusty southwest winds especially over the
eastern TAF sites. The KEAT TAF site is in a very protected
location tucked against the cascades and will be slow to mix out
current LIFR conditions...with a brief MVFR break period possible
from 22Z to this evening when IFR conditions will likely return.
The confidence level for this improvement is moderate. A deeper
feed of moisture will move into the region tonight with showers
developing by 12Z over the eastern TAf sites.


NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. the offending sensor replacement is on
order and may be returned to service by Saturday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  41  50  27  27  12 /  10  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  41  49  29  29  12 /  20  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        57  43  53  32  32  16 /  20  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       57  46  56  38  38  23 /  10  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       46  40  47  22  22   7 /  20  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      47  38  45  26  26   8 /  40  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  60  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     57  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      48  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  10  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 271244
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz

Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.

On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.

Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: We`ve made significant changes to the wind fcst for the
Spokane/ C`Da and Pullman TAFs... increasing the winds speeds
significantly especially for KGEG. 12z OTX raob and VWP showed
40-50kts 1500-2500ft of the sfc contributing significantly to the
rapid mixing at KGEG and simultaneous gusts to 25 kts. These winds
should peak this morning, but only decrease slightly during the
day. For sites that have not mixed, LLWS has been added for the
next few hours. As far as the IFR/LIFR ceilings and/or vsby at
KMWH and KEAT... these are expected to become VFR by mid morning.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  41  50  27  27  12 /  30  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  41  49  29  29  12 /  40  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        55  43  53  32  32  16 /  30  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       57  46  56  38  38  23 /  20  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       51  40  47  22  22   7 /  50  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      48  38  45  26  26   8 /  70  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  80  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     56  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      51  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  20  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for Moses Lake
     Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271244
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz

Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.

On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.

Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: We`ve made significant changes to the wind fcst for the
Spokane/ C`Da and Pullman TAFs... increasing the winds speeds
significantly especially for KGEG. 12z OTX raob and VWP showed
40-50kts 1500-2500ft of the sfc contributing significantly to the
rapid mixing at KGEG and simultaneous gusts to 25 kts. These winds
should peak this morning, but only decrease slightly during the
day. For sites that have not mixed, LLWS has been added for the
next few hours. As far as the IFR/LIFR ceilings and/or vsby at
KMWH and KEAT... these are expected to become VFR by mid morning.

NOTE: The VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  41  50  27  27  12 /  30  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  41  49  29  29  12 /  40  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        55  43  53  32  32  16 /  30  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       57  46  56  38  38  23 /  20  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       51  40  47  22  22   7 /  50  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      48  38  45  26  26   8 /  70  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  80  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     56  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      51  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  20  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for Moses Lake
     Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 271044
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz

Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.

On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.

Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  41  50  27  27  12 /  30  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  51  41  49  29  29  12 /  40  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        54  43  53  32  32  16 /  30  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       56  46  56  38  38  23 /  20  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       50  40  47  22  22   7 /  50  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      46  38  45  26  26   8 /  70  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  80  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     56  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      51  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  20  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST early this morning for
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271044
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz

Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.

On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.

Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  41  50  27  27  12 /  30  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  51  41  49  29  29  12 /  40  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        54  43  53  32  32  16 /  30  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       56  46  56  38  38  23 /  20  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       50  40  47  22  22   7 /  50  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      46  38  45  26  26   8 /  70  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  80  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     56  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      51  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  20  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST early this morning for
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 270636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain passes.
Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes should
experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The next couple mid-level disturbances will be
passing tonight and Thursday, shaking things up a little bit. This
will mean some increased threat of precipitation especially
around the mountain areas, and more peripherally around the
eastern Columbia Basin southward.

The broad area of dense fog has begun to decrease in some areas,
such as the Spokane area and northeast mountain valleys. While
some pockets of dense fog are still possible, it is not expected
to be widespread enough and wind are expected to increase some
overnight into Thursday AM. So the dense fog advisory was allowed
to expire in that region. It was however expanded over some of the
Upper Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake zones
through the night. HRRR models suggest this too will erode from
the southeast between 06-12Z, with the help of some mixing with
that first mid-level wave. This will be monitored and may
potentially be extended should this decreasing trend not
materialize.

Temperatures have been wonky in some spots this evening. At the
Spokane International Airport the temperature was 36 degrees near
sunset, but at this hour warmed to around 42 degrees, owing to the
fog/lower clouds breaking up some and the winds increased a bit
and mixing some of the warmer air aloft down. The 00Z sounding
showed a modest to strong low level inversion which makes this
warming not too surprising. However overall the confidence in
precise overnight lows is not high. Numbers should remain steady
or fall a degree or two from where they are now though. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  90  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  60  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  90  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Moses Lake Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain passes.
Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes should
experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The next couple mid-level disturbances will be
passing tonight and Thursday, shaking things up a little bit. This
will mean some increased threat of precipitation especially
around the mountain areas, and more peripherally around the
eastern Columbia Basin southward.

The broad area of dense fog has begun to decrease in some areas,
such as the Spokane area and northeast mountain valleys. While
some pockets of dense fog are still possible, it is not expected
to be widespread enough and wind are expected to increase some
overnight into Thursday AM. So the dense fog advisory was allowed
to expire in that region. It was however expanded over some of the
Upper Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake zones
through the night. HRRR models suggest this too will erode from
the southeast between 06-12Z, with the help of some mixing with
that first mid-level wave. This will be monitored and may
potentially be extended should this decreasing trend not
materialize.

Temperatures have been wonky in some spots this evening. At the
Spokane International Airport the temperature was 36 degrees near
sunset, but at this hour warmed to around 42 degrees, owing to the
fog/lower clouds breaking up some and the winds increased a bit
and mixing some of the warmer air aloft down. The 00Z sounding
showed a modest to strong low level inversion which makes this
warming not too surprising. However overall the confidence in
precise overnight lows is not high. Numbers should remain steady
or fall a degree or two from where they are now though. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  90  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  60  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  90  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Moses Lake Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 262344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will promote widespread IFR
and LIFR ceilings and visibilities over the Columbia Basin through
06Z...affecting all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS. After 06Z a
developing surface low over British Columbia will create a
southerly gradient breeze which may allow some improvement in
visibilities and marginal ceiling improvement...however since this
will be developing at night and thus involving a nocturnal
inversion locking in the low level moisture...confidence is only
moderate for this improvement. Confidence is higher for
significant improvement during the mid morning hours on Thursday
when diurnal mixing will play a larger role in breaking up the fog
and stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will promote widespread IFR
and LIFR ceilings and visibilities over the Columbia Basin through
06Z...affecting all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS. After 06Z a
developing surface low over British Columbia will create a
southerly gradient breeze which may allow some improvement in
visibilities and marginal ceiling improvement...however since this
will be developing at night and thus involving a nocturnal
inversion locking in the low level moisture...confidence is only
moderate for this improvement. Confidence is higher for
significant improvement during the mid morning hours on Thursday
when diurnal mixing will play a larger role in breaking up the fog
and stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 262343
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. MOTORISTS WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE GOOD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIRTY UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN GENERAL, THE RIDGE IS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION (AT LEAST IN THE MIDLEVELS) AND IS SHOVING THE MOIST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC. BECAUSE THE RIDGE HAS
FULLY TRANSLATED EAST, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS COMING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE WARMING ALOFT IS A MOIST INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN DELIVERING WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. DENSE FOG HAS
PLAGUED THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2PM...THE WORSE VISIBILITIES
WERE FOUND ALONG HWY 2 FROM AIRWAY HEIGHTS TO WATERVILLE AND
NORTHWARD ALONG HWY 395 BETWEEN SPOKANE AND COLVILLE. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AND THE MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG BACK INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT RATHER AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP AND WE WILL LOSE THE POCKETS
OF COOLER AIR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS RESULTING IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5-6K FT. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER
WILL DELIVER SOMEWHAT OF A RAIN SHADOW IN THE BASIN BUT ADD LIFT
TO THE ALREADY STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

UNDER THIS PATTERN, A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY FOR INSTANCE, WE ARE SEEING HIGHS IN THE
30`S NORTH TO 60`S IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MTNS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP VERY LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE 60`S IN THE SOUTHEAST) THEN TOMORROW WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S WITH A FEW 60`S IF THE
WINDS CAN EFFICIENCY MIX TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.  /SB

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COMPLEX INTERPLAY BETWEEN AN
INITIALLY VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRONG ARCTIC PUSH WILL BRING
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FEATURING WET AND WINDY BUT SURPRISINGLY MILD LATE
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STARK DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO PLUNGE LIKE A
ROCK ON SATURDAY.

TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ON PACIFIC SATELLITE ARE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE COAST...HOSTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AND AN
INCIPIENT ARCTIC ORIGIN TROUGH BARELY PERCEPTIBLE ON SATELLITE
OVER THE YUKON DROPPING INTO NORTHERN BC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND
HONING IN ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES THE DIGGING ARCTIC TROUGH
PICKING UP AND ENHANCING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO A LONG RUNNING SEMI-OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EXCHANGING THE CURRENT MOIST MARITIME AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION WITH A BONE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A MOIST OROGRAPHIC PATTERN WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PROMOTING A DECENT RAIN
SHADOW OVER THE BASIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD MARITIME
AIR MASS MAINTAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. ON FRIDAY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH AND DEEPEN
AGGRESSIVELY UNDER THE DYNAMIC JET REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AS IT DESCENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCLUDE
MOST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EXPOSED BASIN TERRAIN...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 45 TO 50 MPH GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE NOW EXITING
SURFACE LOW WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING
UP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP
BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY OR
EVEN A HIGH WIND WARNING PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AND REFINED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STARK
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BECOME APPARENT AS VERY
DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION. AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY DROP
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY ENDING SO NO WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY START OUT AT THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR PLUNGE DURING THE
DAY. /FUGAZZI

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM
PULLMAN SOUTH TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN COLD
CANADIAN AIR. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-14 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON. BELOW ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEYS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS AGREE ON SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL PREVIOUS MENTION OF SNOW AND
DECREASED SKY COVER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT QUITE YET AS TO WHERE IT WOULD FORM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DRYING WE GET BEHIND THE TROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE TWO...MAINLY BEING THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN ENERGY AND
SLIDES IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE EC DIGS IT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. SO WE HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP. RIGHT NOW AM TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AND HAVE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WA AND ALL OF THE ID
PANHANDLE. THIS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT HAD A CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES MONDAY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /NISBET

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
06Z...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW AND KLWS. AFTER 06Z A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BREEZE WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AND MARGINAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER SINCE THIS
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND THUS INVOLVING A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION LOCKING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE FOR THIS IMPROVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WHEN DIURNAL MIXING WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN BREAKING UP THE FOG
AND STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
COEUR D`ALENE  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
PULLMAN        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
LEWISTON       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
COLVILLE       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
SANDPOINT      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
KELLOGG        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
MOSES LAKE     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
WENATCHEE      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
OMAK           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
     MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
     PLATEAU.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262343
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. MOTORISTS WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE GOOD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIRTY UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN GENERAL, THE RIDGE IS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION (AT LEAST IN THE MIDLEVELS) AND IS SHOVING THE MOIST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC. BECAUSE THE RIDGE HAS
FULLY TRANSLATED EAST, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS COMING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE WARMING ALOFT IS A MOIST INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN DELIVERING WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. DENSE FOG HAS
PLAGUED THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2PM...THE WORSE VISIBILITIES
WERE FOUND ALONG HWY 2 FROM AIRWAY HEIGHTS TO WATERVILLE AND
NORTHWARD ALONG HWY 395 BETWEEN SPOKANE AND COLVILLE. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AND THE MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG BACK INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT RATHER AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP AND WE WILL LOSE THE POCKETS
OF COOLER AIR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS RESULTING IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5-6K FT. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER
WILL DELIVER SOMEWHAT OF A RAIN SHADOW IN THE BASIN BUT ADD LIFT
TO THE ALREADY STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

UNDER THIS PATTERN, A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY FOR INSTANCE, WE ARE SEEING HIGHS IN THE
30`S NORTH TO 60`S IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MTNS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP VERY LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE 60`S IN THE SOUTHEAST) THEN TOMORROW WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S WITH A FEW 60`S IF THE
WINDS CAN EFFICIENCY MIX TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.  /SB

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COMPLEX INTERPLAY BETWEEN AN
INITIALLY VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRONG ARCTIC PUSH WILL BRING
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FEATURING WET AND WINDY BUT SURPRISINGLY MILD LATE
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STARK DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO PLUNGE LIKE A
ROCK ON SATURDAY.

TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ON PACIFIC SATELLITE ARE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE COAST...HOSTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AND AN
INCIPIENT ARCTIC ORIGIN TROUGH BARELY PERCEPTIBLE ON SATELLITE
OVER THE YUKON DROPPING INTO NORTHERN BC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND
HONING IN ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES THE DIGGING ARCTIC TROUGH
PICKING UP AND ENHANCING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO A LONG RUNNING SEMI-OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EXCHANGING THE CURRENT MOIST MARITIME AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION WITH A BONE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A MOIST OROGRAPHIC PATTERN WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PROMOTING A DECENT RAIN
SHADOW OVER THE BASIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD MARITIME
AIR MASS MAINTAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. ON FRIDAY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH AND DEEPEN
AGGRESSIVELY UNDER THE DYNAMIC JET REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AS IT DESCENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCLUDE
MOST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EXPOSED BASIN TERRAIN...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 45 TO 50 MPH GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE NOW EXITING
SURFACE LOW WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING
UP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP
BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY OR
EVEN A HIGH WIND WARNING PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AND REFINED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STARK
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BECOME APPARENT AS VERY
DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION. AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY DROP
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY ENDING SO NO WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY START OUT AT THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR PLUNGE DURING THE
DAY. /FUGAZZI

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM
PULLMAN SOUTH TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN COLD
CANADIAN AIR. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-14 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON. BELOW ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEYS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS AGREE ON SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL PREVIOUS MENTION OF SNOW AND
DECREASED SKY COVER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT QUITE YET AS TO WHERE IT WOULD FORM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DRYING WE GET BEHIND THE TROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE TWO...MAINLY BEING THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN ENERGY AND
SLIDES IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE EC DIGS IT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. SO WE HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP. RIGHT NOW AM TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AND HAVE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WA AND ALL OF THE ID
PANHANDLE. THIS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT HAD A CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES MONDAY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /NISBET

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
06Z...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW AND KLWS. AFTER 06Z A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BREEZE WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AND MARGINAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER SINCE THIS
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND THUS INVOLVING A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION LOCKING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE FOR THIS IMPROVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WHEN DIURNAL MIXING WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN BREAKING UP THE FOG
AND STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
COEUR D`ALENE  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
PULLMAN        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
LEWISTON       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
COLVILLE       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
SANDPOINT      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
KELLOGG        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
MOSES LAKE     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
WENATCHEE      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
OMAK           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
     MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
     PLATEAU.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
not fully translated east, this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. A bigger
impact from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over the Basin
delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has plagued
the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will continue
for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities were
found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and northward
along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a dense fog
advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but also add
lift to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
not fully translated east, this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. A bigger
impact from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over the Basin
delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has plagued
the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will continue
for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities were
found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and northward
along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a dense fog
advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but also add
lift to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 262228
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262228
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 261952
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1152 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
We have issued a dense fog advisory to cover hazardous travel
along the Highway 2 corridor between Airway Heights to Wilbur and
onto the Waterville Plateau. With warmer air moving in aloft, the
inversions are strengthening and cloud decks are lowering with
visibilities down near 1/8 mile in spots. Fog looks to be clearing
down near Ritzville so hazard will mainly address travel along Highway
2. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  41  46  27 /  20  30  30  20  70  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  41  45  29 /  40  30  30  40  80  70
Pullman        53  44  53  43  49  32 /  10  30  30  30  90  90
Lewiston       57  47  58  46  53  38 /  10  10  10  20  60  70
Colville       39  38  46  40  43  22 /  50  60  50  50  70  30
Sandpoint      39  38  45  38  42  26 /  70  70  60  70  80  80
Kellogg        42  40  44  39  41  30 /  60  60  70  60  90 100
Moses Lake     48  44  55  41  51  27 /   0  10  10  20  30  30
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  48  29 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Omak           39  38  46  37  41  16 /  20  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261826
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We continue to delay rising snow levels along the
Canadian Border however despite on and off snow at locations like
Laurier, Bonners Ferry, and Metaline Falls accumulations look to
be primarily on grassy (non-road) surfaces. Therefore, the winter
weather advisories were allowed to expire at 10AM this morning.

Travel across the region looks to be most problematic along Hwy
20 over Sherman Pass and into the Okanogan and Methow Valleys
where 12-18 inches of snow fell over the last 36 hours. The main
roads look mainly wet via cams but many secondary roads will
likely still be dealing with slick, slushy conditions. Periods of
light snow will remain a possibility through today with most
accumulations remaining on non-road surfaces.

Areas of dense fog will be a larger concern region-wide and will
restrict visibilities at times. The worse conditions look to be
along Hwy 2 between Airway Heights and Wenatchee and at times in
and around Moses Lake. Nearly all valley locations north of Hwy 2
can also expect fog and low clouds as warmer air moves in aloft
and strengthens inversions.

Quite the contrast in temperatures expected today with 60s in the
foothills of the Blue Mtns and Snake River Valley while
communities near the Canadian Border remain socked in the 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  40  45  26 /  20  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  40  44  27 /  40  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        53  44  53  42  48  31 /  10  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       57  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       39  38  46  38  42  20 /  50  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 /  70  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        42  40  44  38  40  29 /  60  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     48  44  55  40  50  25 /   0  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           39  38  46  35  40  14 /  20  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261826
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We continue to delay rising snow levels along the
Canadian Border however despite on and off snow at locations like
Laurier, Bonners Ferry, and Metaline Falls accumulations look to
be primarily on grassy (non-road) surfaces. Therefore, the winter
weather advisories were allowed to expire at 10AM this morning.

Travel across the region looks to be most problematic along Hwy
20 over Sherman Pass and into the Okanogan and Methow Valleys
where 12-18 inches of snow fell over the last 36 hours. The main
roads look mainly wet via cams but many secondary roads will
likely still be dealing with slick, slushy conditions. Periods of
light snow will remain a possibility through today with most
accumulations remaining on non-road surfaces.

Areas of dense fog will be a larger concern region-wide and will
restrict visibilities at times. The worse conditions look to be
along Hwy 2 between Airway Heights and Wenatchee and at times in
and around Moses Lake. Nearly all valley locations north of Hwy 2
can also expect fog and low clouds as warmer air moves in aloft
and strengthens inversions.

Quite the contrast in temperatures expected today with 60s in the
foothills of the Blue Mtns and Snake River Valley while
communities near the Canadian Border remain socked in the 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  40  45  26 /  20  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  40  44  27 /  40  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        53  44  53  42  48  31 /  10  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       57  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       39  38  46  38  42  20 /  50  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 /  70  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        42  40  44  38  40  29 /  60  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     48  44  55  40  50  25 /   0  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           39  38  46  35  40  14 /  20  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 260041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update...Snow levels are slower to rise for the Okanogan valley
and the Methow valley than previously thought. Observers are
indicating localized moderate to heavy snow. As such a winter
weather advisory for snow has been issued for these locations.

Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built
into the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the
 forecast area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air
 advection they should remain high. So precipitation will be as
 rain. The exception will be across the northern mountains and
 dropping south along the Panhandle and the Okanogan and Methow
 valleys where the cooler and drier air has moved in. Many of the
 valley locations will most likely wet-bulb (evaporative cooling)
 to right around freezing and the some of the valleys up near the
 Canadian border may see wet snow accumulation of 1-3 inches
 overnight. The mountain will locally pick up 5-8 additional
 inches. So the Winter Weather advisory will be extended through
 Wednesday morning and issued down to the valley floor. A bigger
 challenge will be Shoshone county. For the most part snow levels
 are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air has remained in the
 vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing up there all day and
 new guidance indicates that snow level for that area will not
 rise above Pass level until after 12z so that advisory will also
 be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Okanogan
     Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update...Snow levels are slower to rise for the Okanogan valley
and the Methow valley than previously thought. Observers are
indicating localized moderate to heavy snow. As such a winter
weather advisory for snow has been issued for these locations.

Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built
into the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the
 forecast area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air
 advection they should remain high. So precipitation will be as
 rain. The exception will be across the northern mountains and
 dropping south along the Panhandle and the Okanogan and Methow
 valleys where the cooler and drier air has moved in. Many of the
 valley locations will most likely wet-bulb (evaporative cooling)
 to right around freezing and the some of the valleys up near the
 Canadian border may see wet snow accumulation of 1-3 inches
 overnight. The mountain will locally pick up 5-8 additional
 inches. So the Winter Weather advisory will be extended through
 Wednesday morning and issued down to the valley floor. A bigger
 challenge will be Shoshone county. For the most part snow levels
 are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air has remained in the
 vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing up there all day and
 new guidance indicates that snow level for that area will not
 rise above Pass level until after 12z so that advisory will also
 be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Okanogan
     Valley.

&&

$$






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