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000
FXUS66 KOTX 061901
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1145 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through this forecast
period. The main weather of consequence will be the approach of a
weak upper level disturbance moving SE through BC. This will
gradually increase the clouds overnight and into Tue morning. It
could also bring a few showers to extreme NE WA and N ID after 08z.
Wildfire smoke could also pose some restricted visibilities issues
overnight and early Tuesday. fx

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 061140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS: The gusty northeast winds will subside this
morning.  Skies will remain sunny today.  By this evening some mid-
level clouds will move into the area.  Wildfire smoke in the area
could reduce visibilities at times.  RJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
After a warm and sunny day today, another weather system will
drop down from Canada Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across the north. Drier conditions return around
mid-week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Today will be an in-between day. As the
weekend wave moves off to our east, we`ll see quiet weather
conditions with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
The second wave that is currently up in northern BC will slide
into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the northern part of the forecast area. Best
chance for precipitation will be in the northern Panhandle but we
could see thunderstorms develop as far west as the north Cascades.

These storms should fire over the northern mountains but the
northwest flow could easily take some of these storms off of the
mountains and into the Spokane/Cd`A metro area late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values off the NAM model would support hail, but
these seem a bit overdone (as usual). The dry sub-cloud layer up
to 10,000 feet would be more supportive of strong gusty winds. The
WRF-ARW does show a gust front propagating out of the mountains
and into the northern basin. For now I`ll avoid specific strong or
severe wording until we get closer to the event.  RJ

Tuesday night through Thursday...A short wave disturbance will drop
through the region on Tuesday. A chance for showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast for Tuesday evening as
that wave progresses through the region. The focus will shift east
and south along the north and central Idaho Panhandle mountains,
with the convection coming to an end overnight. This will be
followed by weak high pressure building back into the region
Wednesday and Thursday for continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain in the 90s to lower 100s and 15-20
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry with poor to
moderate relative humidity recoveries on mid slopes and ridges.
Fortunately it doesn`t appear as if winds will be a big issue.

Friday through the weekend...A closed low currently meandering
around the central California coast will finally move inland on
Thursday and Friday and looks to merge with a trough that will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. This will deepen the trough off
the WA/OR coast and put the PAC NW in a southerly flow through the
weekend. The southerly flow will allow deeper subtropical moisture
to move north into the PAC NW and result in wide spread showers
and thunderstorms...likely just across the southeast zones on
Friday, then pushing north through the region Saturday and Sunday.
At this time the convection in the forecast was broad brushed and
as we get closer to the weekend we should be able to fine tune the
forecast. One thing we can expect will be slightly cooler
temperatures...slightly higher relative humidity and much better
overnight recoveries. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon evening warrants the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. The best chance for lightning
will be over the northern Panhandle and northeast Washington, with
a lesser chance over the Okanogan Highlands and the north
Cascades. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light. These
storms could generate localized gusty winds.  RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  90  61  89  61  91  61 /   0  10  30  20  10  10
Pullman        90  57  92  57  91  57 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       98  68  99  69  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       94  63  95  60  96  61 /   0  10  20  20  10  10
Sandpoint      88  55  87  54  90  54 /   0  10  30  30  10  10
Kellogg        88  57  88  56  89  58 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Moses Lake     98  67 100  70 100  68 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee     100  72 101  74 101  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           97  67  98  66  99  67 /   0  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for East Washington North Cascades (Zone 685)-East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are very slowly diminishing around the region. This trend
will continue overnight. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region overnight keeping skies mostly clear. A few
mid to high level clouds will build over the region tomorrow as
the first very weak shortwave moves approaches from BC toward
the Inland Northwest. Instability and available moisture is
minimal so any showers that may pop up Monday afternoon will be
very isolated and shortlived. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist Tuesday.

Only other weather worth mentioning this evening is increased
smoke from numerious wildfires in BC, Washington, and North Idaho.
A few of the fires showed rapid growth this afternoon so smoke
will likely linger through the week for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: The evening update included a few more
tweaks to the winds diminishing overnight and then switching
directions Monday afternoon. All TAF sites are expected to remain
VFR. The only thing that could change that are the wild fires in
the region. Smoke reduced visbility at PUW this evening and I
suspect many TAF sites could see restrictions depending on the
fire behavior over the next several days. The exact impacts of
these fires is challenging to forecast more than a few hours out.
/AB

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /   0   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 052153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: The Inland NW will be in a
more progressive northwest flow, with the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms arriving around Tuesday. But first tonight into
Monday a shortwave trough near the central Panhandle pulls east
into Montana and subtle shortwave ridging moves into the region.
With drier air and a stabilizing atmosphere, look for an end to
the lingering shower threat over far southeast Shoshone county and
mostly clear skies until Monday afternoon. The sky, however, will
still be milky white from the smoke from the variety of wildfires
from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. By Monday afternoon daytime
heating and the leading edge of the next system will bring a few
more clouds in from the north. As for winds, the gradients slowly
slacken tonight into Monday. This will lead to a gradual decrease
in winds, with the most notable decrease Monday afternoon when the
thermal trough reorganizes over the western Columbia Basin.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the next system drops in
from the BC. It is not as sharp or fast as the most recent system,
but it encounters some broader and better instability and so
carries a broader shower and thunderstorm threat. First on Monday
night a weak shortwave/jet streak skims by the northeast. With
some pockets of elevated instability there could be a few
shower/t-storms around the northeast mountains of WA and north ID,
but overall look for some increased clouds and dry weather. Going
into Tuesday the main trough axis pivots into northeast WA and
north ID. There is deeper moisture, especially across northeast WA
and north ID, and expanding SBCAPE (around 200 to 700 J/kg, with
potential pockets around 1000 J/kg or so) especially across the
Cascade crest and the northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains. So
look for an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon, with the best threat toward from Stevens County to
Boundary/Bonner and eastern Shoshone county where the lift is
best. Smaller chances will be found across the Okanogan Highlands
and from northern Spokane county through the higher Palouse. We
will have to think about potential abundant lightning and fire
weather concerns, especially around the northern mountains and
potentially the Cascades depending on the amount of lift.

From Tuesday night into Wednesday the shortwave begins to drop
south and shortwave ridging, broader subsidence and drier air
comes in from the north. This will allow for the threat of
precipitation to gradually shift to just southeast WA and the
central Panhandle and wane. This will leave the remainder of the
CWA dry with decreasing clouds. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday..Confidence is growing that the unprecedented
heat of late will finally ease as the deep upper level low west
of the Bay area gets slowly nudged toward the Inland Northwest.
The trigger to cause this ejection will be the approach of a
stronger upper level trough expected to move into the NE Pacific.
There are questions as to how quickly the low will surge north and
what impacts it will have. For Thursday there is good model
agreement that the low will move into central California which
will begin to shunt some monsoonal moisture northward toward our
forecast area. If it makes it this far it would likely only result
in a small chance of thunderstorms over the extreme SE corner of
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. By Friday this threat
will spread even farther north as the offshore trough moves closer
to the coast. This could impact most of the Panhandle and far
northern portions of Washington with a small threat of
thunderstorms. At least this is what the ECMWF model is
suggesting. Meanwhile the Canadian and GFS models keep the threat
confined to SE Washington and the southern Panhandle. We suspect
that by Saturday we should see the most widespread thunderstorm
threat as the offshore trough pushes a weak upper level
disturbance through southern British Columbia while the
aforementioned upper level low weakens considerably somewhere over
SE Washington or NE Oregon. Based on moisture availability and
potential instability the best chances for thunderstorms will
occur over the Panhandle and extreme eastern Washington. There
would also be a threat near the Cascades. This is no sure bet
through as the Canadian model shows that both of the upper level
features will wash out before arriving in the Inland NW. On Sunday
the models all show an amplification of the trough off the coast
with more consolidated southerly flow impacting the entire
forecast area. Whether or not this brings widespread thunderstorms
is questionable. The ECMWF would say yes while the Canadian and
GFS say perhaps not.

While the specific question of where and when thunderstorms could
occur is tough to answer at this time, our confidence is better
that the temperatures will be coming down. Thursday and Friday
still look unseasonably warm with widespread highs in the 90s to
lower 100s. Saturday and Sunday should deliver some cooling
although not dramatic. Highs will remain in the mid 80s and 90s
but the relative humidity levels will begin to creep upward which
is somewhat better news for dry fuel conditions. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /  10   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /  10   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 052153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot, dry and mostly clear but smoky conditions will continue
across the Inland Northwest, at least into Monday. Another
system drops in around Tuesday with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across the northeast
mountains. Drier conditions return around mid-week, before
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return toward Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: The Inland NW will be in a
more progressive northwest flow, with the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms arriving around Tuesday. But first tonight into
Monday a shortwave trough near the central Panhandle pulls east
into Montana and subtle shortwave ridging moves into the region.
With drier air and a stabilizing atmosphere, look for an end to
the lingering shower threat over far southeast Shoshone county and
mostly clear skies until Monday afternoon. The sky, however, will
still be milky white from the smoke from the variety of wildfires
from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. By Monday afternoon daytime
heating and the leading edge of the next system will bring a few
more clouds in from the north. As for winds, the gradients slowly
slacken tonight into Monday. This will lead to a gradual decrease
in winds, with the most notable decrease Monday afternoon when the
thermal trough reorganizes over the western Columbia Basin.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the next system drops in
from the BC. It is not as sharp or fast as the most recent system,
but it encounters some broader and better instability and so
carries a broader shower and thunderstorm threat. First on Monday
night a weak shortwave/jet streak skims by the northeast. With
some pockets of elevated instability there could be a few
shower/t-storms around the northeast mountains of WA and north ID,
but overall look for some increased clouds and dry weather. Going
into Tuesday the main trough axis pivots into northeast WA and
north ID. There is deeper moisture, especially across northeast WA
and north ID, and expanding SBCAPE (around 200 to 700 J/kg, with
potential pockets around 1000 J/kg or so) especially across the
Cascade crest and the northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains. So
look for an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon, with the best threat toward from Stevens County to
Boundary/Bonner and eastern Shoshone county where the lift is
best. Smaller chances will be found across the Okanogan Highlands
and from northern Spokane county through the higher Palouse. We
will have to think about potential abundant lightning and fire
weather concerns, especially around the northern mountains and
potentially the Cascades depending on the amount of lift.

From Tuesday night into Wednesday the shortwave begins to drop
south and shortwave ridging, broader subsidence and drier air
comes in from the north. This will allow for the threat of
precipitation to gradually shift to just southeast WA and the
central Panhandle and wane. This will leave the remainder of the
CWA dry with decreasing clouds. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday..Confidence is growing that the unprecedented
heat of late will finally ease as the deep upper level low west
of the Bay area gets slowly nudged toward the Inland Northwest.
The trigger to cause this ejection will be the approach of a
stronger upper level trough expected to move into the NE Pacific.
There are questions as to how quickly the low will surge north and
what impacts it will have. For Thursday there is good model
agreement that the low will move into central California which
will begin to shunt some monsoonal moisture northward toward our
forecast area. If it makes it this far it would likely only result
in a small chance of thunderstorms over the extreme SE corner of
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. By Friday this threat
will spread even farther north as the offshore trough moves closer
to the coast. This could impact most of the Panhandle and far
northern portions of Washington with a small threat of
thunderstorms. At least this is what the ECMWF model is
suggesting. Meanwhile the Canadian and GFS models keep the threat
confined to SE Washington and the southern Panhandle. We suspect
that by Saturday we should see the most widespread thunderstorm
threat as the offshore trough pushes a weak upper level
disturbance through southern British Columbia while the
aforementioned upper level low weakens considerably somewhere over
SE Washington or NE Oregon. Based on moisture availability and
potential instability the best chances for thunderstorms will
occur over the Panhandle and extreme eastern Washington. There
would also be a threat near the Cascades. This is no sure bet
through as the Canadian model shows that both of the upper level
features will wash out before arriving in the Inland NW. On Sunday
the models all show an amplification of the trough off the coast
with more consolidated southerly flow impacting the entire
forecast area. Whether or not this brings widespread thunderstorms
is questionable. The ECMWF would say yes while the Canadian and
GFS say perhaps not.

While the specific question of where and when thunderstorms could
occur is tough to answer at this time, our confidence is better
that the temperatures will be coming down. Thursday and Friday
still look unseasonably warm with widespread highs in the 90s to
lower 100s. Saturday and Sunday should deliver some cooling
although not dramatic. Highs will remain in the mid 80s and 90s
but the relative humidity levels will begin to creep upward which
is somewhat better news for dry fuel conditions. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  92  67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  90  61  90  61  91 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Pullman        53  90  57  92  56  92 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       66  98  69  99  69  99 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       57  94  63  95  60  97 /   0   0  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      51  88  55  87  53  90 /  10   0  10  30  30  10
Kellogg        52  88  57  88  57  90 /  10   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     66  98  67 100  69 100 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      72  99  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           62  97  68  97  66  99 /   0   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051802
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: A shortwave trough continues to pivot by the
Panhandle this morning, providing a thin line of clouds and
embedded showers from just northeast of Deary to southeast Avery,
across southeast Shoshone county. And this spotty threat of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger here for the
afternoon. However conditions will overall remain dry and breezy.
The strongest winds are coming down out across the western
Columbia Basin and out through the Purcell Trench (Sandpoint out
into Coeur d`Alene) in the 15 to 25 mph range. Some peak gusts so
far today have been 30 mph in Ephrata, 31 mph in Coeur d`Alene,
and 35 mph in Omak, 38 mph in Sandpoint.

Minor tweaks made to sky cover, those isolated shower/t-storm
chances across the Central Panhandle. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051802
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: A shortwave trough continues to pivot by the
Panhandle this morning, providing a thin line of clouds and
embedded showers from just northeast of Deary to southeast Avery,
across southeast Shoshone county. And this spotty threat of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger here for the
afternoon. However conditions will overall remain dry and breezy.
The strongest winds are coming down out across the western
Columbia Basin and out through the Purcell Trench (Sandpoint out
into Coeur d`Alene) in the 15 to 25 mph range. Some peak gusts so
far today have been 30 mph in Ephrata, 31 mph in Coeur d`Alene,
and 35 mph in Omak, 38 mph in Sandpoint.

Minor tweaks made to sky cover, those isolated shower/t-storm
chances across the Central Panhandle. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A shortwave drops by the central Panhandle, with few
clouds. But TAF sites will be VFR and dry. Winds will remain
breezy and gusty through this afternoon away from the sheltered
locations. Expect 10 to 20 mph, with local gusts to 30 mph. These
should subside between 22 to 04Z. Location such as LWS/EAT/PUW,
however, will be more sheltered and should experience lighter
winds. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from regional
wildfires. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as the front moves through the region. Aside from isolated shower
chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry and
warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be
possible, especially toward COE and MWH this morning. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day, but gusts toward 20
to 25 kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated layers of smoke from regional wildfires. All TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050926
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as a cold front moves through the region. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050926
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. Winds will shift from the north to the northeast
as a cold front moves through the region. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions will be dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...the dry cold front will continue to sag south
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho today bringing gusty north
to northeast winds down the northern valleys and into the Columbia
Basin. The air behind this front is very dry, keeping relative
humidity from recovering overnight. The dry and breezy conditions
continue to support a Red Flag Warning for the Okanogan Valley and
Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and northeast
Washington. There are several ongoing wildfires across the region
and numerous small brushfire starts from Independence Day
celebrations. The fire weather highlights will continue through
the afternoon when winds will start to diminish. These gusty winds
could result in blowing dust across the basin. Another concern is
the slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the northern
panhandle as the cold front slides south today. Once the cold
front moves off to the southeast, the surface pressure gradient
will relax and winds will diminish below red flag criteria by this
afternoon. At this point, it looks like we will see a break in the
critical fire weather until the next weather system brings a
chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Temperatures will continue the well above normal trend with daytime
readings in upper 80s to upper 90s. Overnight lows will also remain
quite warm, with most valley locations in the 60s with 50s for the
northern valleys. /Kelch

Monday night through Saturday...The models are in good agreement
with the overall pattern through Friday...before some differences
begin to show up. No big changes from what we have been looking at
the past few model runs. A ridge of high pressure in the eastern
Pacific will be anchored to the east by a deep low pressure system
near Hudson Bay and to the west but another deep low just inside
the date line. A few weather disturbances will move through the
Pac NW with the strongest one expected for next weekend.

The first weak wave will eject off the Hudson Bay low and wrap
all the way back to the west and clip the northeast zones on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows enough mid level moisture and
instability to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms along
the Canadian border...but mainly over the northeast Washington and
north Idaho Panhandle mountains. These storms will likely result
in brief moderate showers, occasional lighting and gusty outflow
winds. Some places in north Idaho may get up to an tenth of an
inch of rain which should bring a short respite from the very dry
conditions of late. Temperatures are not expected to cool off by
much and will remain 10 degrees warmer than normal. For the
remainder of the region the forecast will be dry.

Weak high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday for dry
and warm conditions, but by Thursday the flow flattens and
becomes westerly. While this is not expected to result in any
cooling to the temperatures it will likely inject some Pacific
moisture into the region and result in better over night relative
humidity recoveries.

Friday into the weekend is when the models start to show some
differences in an approaching upper level trough. All the models
are showing the trough moving into the eastern Pacific by Friday
afternoon. Through the weekend they all are showing slightly
different solutions on just how deep and fast(slow) to bring the
wave through. Needless to say confidence in any specifics are
lacking. However this is a good shower/thunderstorm pattern and
the southerly flow that sets up will allow deeper sub-tropical
moisture to move into the region. So timing any individual
periods of convection will be difficult. a such I chose to broad
brush the forecast for the time being and just say that there will
be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
focused along the higher terrain surrounding the Columbia basin
beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. This deeper
wave should also result in a cooling trend and periods of
breezy/gusty winds. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  61  92  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  85  58  90  61  90  61 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Pullman        89  52  90  56  92  57 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       98  66  97  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       91  57  95  62  94  60 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      84  52  88  55  87  54 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        83  53  89  56  88  57 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     96  66  99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  71  99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           95  61  97  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
532 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.

&&
.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in this evening, with a few more
middle clouds. A more notable feature will be strengthening winds
at some TAF sites, especially away from PUW/LWS. The first
increase is expected this evening, followed by a second surge late
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts
toward 30 to 35kts will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH
with that second surge. Winds are expected to slowly decrease
later in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be
possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
532 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.

&&
.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in this evening, with a few more
middle clouds. A more notable feature will be strengthening winds
at some TAF sites, especially away from PUW/LWS. The first
increase is expected this evening, followed by a second surge late
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts
toward 30 to 35kts will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH
with that second surge. Winds are expected to slowly decrease
later in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be
possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in later Saturday evening, with a few
more middle to high clouds. A more notable feature will be
strengthening winds at some TAF sites, especially away from
PUW/LWS. The first increase is expected this evening, followed by
a second surge late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15
to 25kts with gusts toward 30 to 35kts will be possible,
especially toward COE and MWH with that second surge. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day Sunday, but gusts
toward 20 to 25kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated some layers from regional wildfires. Otherwise TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /J. Cote`

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in later Saturday evening, with a few
more middle to high clouds. A more notable feature will be
strengthening winds at some TAF sites, especially away from
PUW/LWS. The first increase is expected this evening, followed by
a second surge late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15
to 25kts with gusts toward 30 to 35kts will be possible,
especially toward COE and MWH with that second surge. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day Sunday, but gusts
toward 20 to 25kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated some layers from regional wildfires. Otherwise TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /J. Cote`

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041824
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1124 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to make some changes to the current suite of red
flag warnings. Main changes were to extend the current highlights
into Sunday for areas stretching from Okanogan County into the
Western Basin and add the northeastern mountains of Washington.

The dry cold front will push southward through the region this
evening between 6-10PM increasing wind gusts across the region.
The concerning components of this front are the potential for wind
gusts 30-40 mph and the degree of dry air coming in behind the
fropa. RH`s at 850mb or roughly 4000 feet are expected to dip
between 10-20%. This will likely lead to little to no recoveries
in the mountains and if this mixes down into the valleys, should
also result in poor recoveries into Sunday morning. I believe we
will creep out of critical humidity thresholds some by 5AM but
return early Sunday morning...several hours before peak heating
and combine with ongoing breezy N/NE winds.

As for the NE mountains, I think the most critical periods will
be this evening and overnight for similar reasoning stated above.
Most uncertainty will be with humidity recovery Sunday morning and
how fast this drops after sunrise to combine with the last push of
NE winds before waning in the afternoon. This highlight may need
to come down earlier but ran it through 1PM to see how conditions
are in the morning. Notice, we do not expect this to continue to
into peak heating when most humidities are at the lowest. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front sags in later Saturday evening, with a few
more middle to high clouds. A more notable feature will be
strengthening winds at some TAF sites, especially away from
PUW/LWS. The first increase is expected later afternoon to early
evening, followed by a second surge late Saturday night/Sunday
morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts toward 30 to 35kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH with that second
surge. Expect some elevated some layers from regional wildfires.
Otherwise TAF sites will be dry and VFR. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PDT Sunday for
     East Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040435 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
935 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday winds will be increasing as a front tries to
sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds more from the north.
Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO TAKE OUT HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAGS THAT
EXPIRED AT 9PM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WENATCHEE AND KITTITAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS ON LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WINDS MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS RIGHT WHEN MANY TOWNS WILL BE
SETTING OFF THEIR FIREWORKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040435 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
935 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday winds will be increasing as a front tries to
sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds more from the north.
Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO TAKE OUT HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAGS THAT
EXPIRED AT 9PM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WENATCHEE AND KITTITAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS ON LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WINDS MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS RIGHT WHEN MANY TOWNS WILL BE
SETTING OFF THEIR FIREWORKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 032128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will increase as systems move across the upper
level ridge. This evening and Saturday winds will be increasing
as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds
more from the north. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is
still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow much of this period and the occasional shortwave
passes, carrying minor shower chances and occasionally breezy
conditions. Yet as a whole the pattern remains dry with above
normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Saturday some minor ripples in the
west-northwest flow bring a few middle to high clouds, but
otherwise dry conditions. The first substantial shortwave
approaches from BC into Saturday and the thermal low over the
Columbia Basin migrates southeastward. This will increase the
north-south gradient and increase north to northwesterly winds
down the Okanogan between tonight and Saturday. Speeds in the 15
to 25 mph range will be possible here by Saturday morning, with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible by afternoon. Meanwhile
southwest winds will continue across the lower Columbia Basin into
the Palouse through the Idaho Panhandle.

Between Saturday night and Sunday night the first substantial
shortwave drops across the Inland NW. This comes with a marginal
increase in layer moisture and instability, especially toward the
ID/MT border and perhaps near the Cascade crest. Look for some
band of clouds to drop in Saturday night into Sunday morning,
before some drier air slips in from the north later Sunday. A
slight threat of showers and thunderstorms skim by the ID/MT
border Saturday night. Other chances continue across the central
and lower ID Panhandle mountains into the Camas Prairie in the
developing northwest flow for Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise the region will remain dry, with clearing into Monday.

The more notable and continuing feature will be winds. Just in
time to heighten the concern around the Fourth of July evening,
speeds will be or rise into in the breezy category. Directions
turn north-northwest over much of the region Saturday night,
before they gradually shift north-northeast into Sunday. We will
continue to see some channeling and higher winds down the Okanogan
Valley and out through the Purcell Trench. Speeds then begin to
subside Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries more moisture and
instability and overall has a better threat of showers and
thunderstorms. However there remains a fair amount of model
disagreement over just how much of the threat it will bring. Some
models hold the main chances across the ID Panhandle mountains and
far northeast WA mountains. Others bring the threat over a broader
portion of the Inland NW. For now on Monday night clouds increase
some and the main shower threat comes into the Okanogan Highlands
through the northern Panhandle. By Tuesday expanding surface-based
instability and lift with the incoming wave will increase the
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Still, the overall best
chances will remain across the mountains. Breezy conditions also
accompany this shortwave but compared to the weekend winds they
don`t look at strong.

From Wednesday to Friday model agreement falters. Initially the
region will remain in north or westerly flow, with a ridge to the
west and low pressure off the central CA coast. That CA low
migrates inland through the end of the week and some instability
wraps around the mountains, while the deeper Columbia Basin
remains relatively stable. Where models disagree is over whether
some energy coming around that incoming low drifts north into our
region to bring at least an isolated shower and thunderstorm
threat. Through Thursday most models keep the threat south of the
region of just into our Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings
chances into the Cascades by Thursday, but for now this seems an
outlier. By next Friday better chances come to the southeast WA
and the lower Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a
few solutions wrapping some threat back across the northern WA
mountains. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across EAT and
remain occasionally breezy through Saturday. Elevated smoke
layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid level clouds
but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are elevated risk for rapidly spreading wildfires through
the weekend as winds increase. Winds increase locally near the
Cascades Friday afternoon then across most of Central and Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Gusty winds will continue well into Sunday
with gusty northeast winds spreading into the North Idaho
Panhandle Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington South
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 032128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will increase as systems move across the upper
level ridge. This evening and Saturday winds will be increasing
as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds
more from the north. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is
still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow much of this period and the occasional shortwave
passes, carrying minor shower chances and occasionally breezy
conditions. Yet as a whole the pattern remains dry with above
normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Saturday some minor ripples in the
west-northwest flow bring a few middle to high clouds, but
otherwise dry conditions. The first substantial shortwave
approaches from BC into Saturday and the thermal low over the
Columbia Basin migrates southeastward. This will increase the
north-south gradient and increase north to northwesterly winds
down the Okanogan between tonight and Saturday. Speeds in the 15
to 25 mph range will be possible here by Saturday morning, with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible by afternoon. Meanwhile
southwest winds will continue across the lower Columbia Basin into
the Palouse through the Idaho Panhandle.

Between Saturday night and Sunday night the first substantial
shortwave drops across the Inland NW. This comes with a marginal
increase in layer moisture and instability, especially toward the
ID/MT border and perhaps near the Cascade crest. Look for some
band of clouds to drop in Saturday night into Sunday morning,
before some drier air slips in from the north later Sunday. A
slight threat of showers and thunderstorms skim by the ID/MT
border Saturday night. Other chances continue across the central
and lower ID Panhandle mountains into the Camas Prairie in the
developing northwest flow for Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise the region will remain dry, with clearing into Monday.

The more notable and continuing feature will be winds. Just in
time to heighten the concern around the Fourth of July evening,
speeds will be or rise into in the breezy category. Directions
turn north-northwest over much of the region Saturday night,
before they gradually shift north-northeast into Sunday. We will
continue to see some channeling and higher winds down the Okanogan
Valley and out through the Purcell Trench. Speeds then begin to
subside Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries more moisture and
instability and overall has a better threat of showers and
thunderstorms. However there remains a fair amount of model
disagreement over just how much of the threat it will bring. Some
models hold the main chances across the ID Panhandle mountains and
far northeast WA mountains. Others bring the threat over a broader
portion of the Inland NW. For now on Monday night clouds increase
some and the main shower threat comes into the Okanogan Highlands
through the northern Panhandle. By Tuesday expanding surface-based
instability and lift with the incoming wave will increase the
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Still, the overall best
chances will remain across the mountains. Breezy conditions also
accompany this shortwave but compared to the weekend winds they
don`t look at strong.

From Wednesday to Friday model agreement falters. Initially the
region will remain in north or westerly flow, with a ridge to the
west and low pressure off the central CA coast. That CA low
migrates inland through the end of the week and some instability
wraps around the mountains, while the deeper Columbia Basin
remains relatively stable. Where models disagree is over whether
some energy coming around that incoming low drifts north into our
region to bring at least an isolated shower and thunderstorm
threat. Through Thursday most models keep the threat south of the
region of just into our Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings
chances into the Cascades by Thursday, but for now this seems an
outlier. By next Friday better chances come to the southeast WA
and the lower Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a
few solutions wrapping some threat back across the northern WA
mountains. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across EAT and
remain occasionally breezy through Saturday. Elevated smoke
layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid level clouds
but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are elevated risk for rapidly spreading wildfires through
the weekend as winds increase. Winds increase locally near the
Cascades Friday afternoon then across most of Central and Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Gusty winds will continue well into Sunday
with gusty northeast winds spreading into the North Idaho
Panhandle Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington South
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will increase as systems move across the upper
level ridge. This evening and Saturday winds will be increasing
as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds
more from the north. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is
still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow much of this period and the occasional shortwave
passes, carrying minor shower chances and occasionally breezy
conditions. Yet as a whole the pattern remains dry with above
normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Saturday some minor ripples in the
west-northwest flow bring a few middle to high clouds, but
otherwise dry conditions. The first substantial shortwave
approaches from BC into Saturday and the thermal low over the
Columbia Basin migrates southeastward. This will increase the
north-south gradient and increase north to northwesterly winds
down the Okanogan between tonight and Saturday. Speeds in the 15
to 25 mph range will be possible here by Saturday morning, with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible by afternoon. Meanwhile
southwest winds will continue across the lower Columbia Basin into
the Palouse through the Idaho Panhandle.

Between Saturday night and Sunday night the first substantial
shortwave drops across the Inland NW. This comes with a marginal
increase in layer moisture and instability, especially toward the
ID/MT border and perhaps near the Cascade crest. Look for some
band of clouds to drop in Saturday night into Sunday morning,
before some drier air slips in from the north later Sunday. A
slight threat of showers and thunderstorms skim by the ID/MT
border Saturday night. Other chances continue across the central
and lower ID Panhandle mountains into the Camas Prairie in the
developing northwest flow for Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise the region will remain dry, with clearing into Monday.

The more notable and continuing feature will be winds. Just in
time to heighten the concern around the Fourth of July evening,
speeds will be or rise into in the breezy category. Directions
turn north-northwest over much of the region Saturday night,
before they gradually shift north-northeast into Sunday. We will
continue to see some channeling and higher winds down the Okanogan
Valley and out through the Purcell Trench. Speeds then begin to
subside Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries more moisture and
instability and overall has a better threat of showers and
thunderstorms. However there remains a fair amount of model
disagreement over just how much of the threat it will bring. Some
models hold the main chances across the ID Panhandle mountains and
far northeast WA mountains. Others bring the threat over a broader
portion of the Inland NW. For now on Monday night clouds increase
some and the main shower threat comes into the Okanogan Highlands
through the northern Panhandle. By Tuesday expanding surface-based
instability and lift with the incoming wave will increase the
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Still, the overall best
chances will remain across the mountains. Breezy conditions also
accompany this shortwave but compared to the weekend winds they
don`t look at strong.

From Wednesday to Friday model agreement falters. Initially the
region will remain in north or westerly flow, with a ridge to the
west and low pressure off the central CA coast. That CA low
migrates inland through the end of the week and some instability
wraps around the mountains, while the deeper Columbia Basin
remains relatively stable. Where models disagree is over whether
some energy coming around that incoming low drifts north into our
region to bring at least an isolated shower and thunderstorm
threat. Through Thursday most models keep the threat south of the
region of just into our Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings
chances into the Cascades by Thursday, but for now this seems an
outlier. By next Friday better chances come to the southeast WA
and the lower Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a
few solutions wrapping some threat back across the northern WA
mountains. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across EAT and
remain occasionally breezy through Saturday. Elevated smoke
layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid level clouds
but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are elevated risk for rapidly spreading wildfires through
the weekend as winds increase. Winds increase locally near the
Cascades Friday afternoon then across most of Central and Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Gusty winds will continue well into Sunday
with gusty northeast winds spreading into the North Idaho
Panhandle Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington South
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




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