Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KOTX 061151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and breezy with afternoon temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The warm weather will persist into
Saturday. The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to
much of the Inland Northwest Sunday. Monday will likely be the
coolest day next week with scattered showers and high temperatures
in the 60s and low 70s. A return to warmer than average conditions
is likely by Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: The Inland NW will transition to a drier and
breezy weather pattern today. Winds diminish some Saturday while
dry weather persists. Temperatures will be warming well above
normal.

Deep southerly flow that was in place the last few days has finally
reversed with north to northeast gradients now chasing a deep low
migrating into the Southwestern US. This flow pattern is drawing
drier air in from the north and with the exception of the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie, will deliver a dry forecast this Friday.
We are still dealing with showers this morning in the Idaho
Panhandle associated with the remnants of this evening`s
convection. Expect this activity to wane around sunrise and
struggle to make little progression to the west. The dry air will
struggle to penetrate much further south and east of the Palouse
and Central Panhandle Mtns but shortwave ridging aloft will yield
a few degrees of warming aloft and begin to stabilize the
atmosphere. Some cumulus buildups are likely during the afternoon
but the main threat for isolated showers or weak thunderstorms
will focus over the higher terrain of the Camas Prairie and Blue
Mtns but this carries low confidence within my CWA boundaries as
the latest SREF pops have now fallen below 10%. Chances look much
better further south into NE Oregon and southward in the Idaho
Panhandle closer to McCall, ID.

So the big story today will be gusty north to northeast winds.  We have
seen an upward trend with speeds in the evening model guidance
and have bumped up speeds for the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench,
and Basin. Sustained speeds at locations like Omak, Sandpoint,
Coeur D Alene, and across the open Columbia Basin including
Ritzville will range between 20-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph.
Area lakes could be a bit choppy if exposed to these N/NE
gradients and high profile vehicles may sway around a bit on E-W
travel routes. This morning`s LAMP guidance suggest Sandpoint AP
may come close to advisory speeds and sustained near 30 mph. This
is a bit of an outlier but will be monitored closely this morning.
Winds will peak this morning and afternoon and decrease some
overnight but generally remain in the breezy category through
midday Saturday.

Temperatures will be warming back into the 70s to lower 80s...roughly
10-15 degrees above seasonal normal`s. Overnight lows will be
cooler returning to the 40s and lower 50s and look to remain above
freezing, even in the northern valleys. /sb

Sunday and Monday: A "dry" cold front is expected to bring gusty
west or northwest winds on Sunday. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in
decent agreement that a progressive 500mb trough will spill over
the top of the West Coast ridge Sunday. Deep layer cold advection
combined with a tight westerly gradient across the Cascades will
promote gusty winds Sunday. The GFS forecasts stronger 850mb winds
(30-35kts) compared to the NAM and ECWMF (25-30kts) over the
Palouse. Using the NAM/ECMWF, it looks like sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph will be common over much of eastern Washington with
gusts to 30 mph. Locally higher winds will likely develop through
the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage late in
the day and into the early evening with gusts of 35 mph or more. A
few showers will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening along the
Cascade Crest and over the mountains of far north Idaho, but the
remainder of the Inland Northwest will lack sufficient moisture
for showers Sunday.

Monday looks to be the coolest day next week, and will likely
feature the best chance for showers, namely over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington. There is good model
agreement that vigorous cooling aloft will accompany the passage
of a 500mb low Monday. The combination of diurnal heating,
westerly upslope flow, and the arrival of a -25C to -27C cold pool
at 500mb will contribute to showers over the Panhandle and
adjacent parts of eastern Washington. Surface based CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG may support widely scattered thunderstorms. At this
time, thunderstorms have not been included in the forecast, but
may need to be added if the instability forecast remains
consistent.

Tuesday through Friday: A longwave trough is expected to become
anchored over the Dakotas for much of next week. The Idaho
Panhandle may be under the western periphery of this trough from
time to time next week leading to the possibility of scattered
afternoon showers. Tuesday morning will be seasonably chilly and
some of the typically cold spots (Deer Park, Springdale, Republic,
Priest Lake) in northeast Washington and north Idaho will dip
into the mid 30s. In general temperatures next week have been
lowered compared to the previous forecast, but in general above
average readings are expected Wednesday through Friday. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: There is a small chance for isold -tsra across the
higher terrain south of Lewiston, otherwise the main foucus on
aviation will be gusty north to northeast winds. The strongest
winds will impact airports such as Omak, Moses Lake, Sandpoint,
Coeru D Alene, and Spokane. Winds will peak this morning and
afternoon, remain breezy through Saturday morning but decrease
in speeds relative to today. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  53  82  52  73  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  82  50  72  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        76  49  79  49  69  42 /  10  10  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       81  53  84  54  75  46 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  85  48  76  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      73  44  80  45  70  43 /  10  10   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        74  44  80  47  68  41 /  20  10  10   0  10  20
Moses Lake     83  53  87  51  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  57  86  56  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  52  86  51  77  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060956
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and breezy with afternoon temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The warm weather will persist into
Saturday. The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to
much of the Inland Northwest Sunday. Monday will likely be the
coolest day next week with scattered showers and high temperatures
in the 60s and low 70s. A return to warmer than average conditions
is likely by Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: The Inland NW will transition to a drier and
breezy weather pattern today. Winds diminish some Saturday while
dry weather persists. Temperatures will be warming well above
normal.

Deep southerly flow that was in place the last few days has finally
reversed with north to northeast gradients now chasing a deep low
migrating into the Southwestern US. This flow pattern is drawing
drier air in from the north and with the exception of the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie, will deliver a dry forecast this Friday.
We are still dealing with showers this morning in the Idaho
Panhandle associated with the remnants of this evening`s
convection. Expect this activity to wane around sunrise and
struggle to make little progression to the west. The dry air will
struggle to penetrate much further south and east of the Palouse
and Central Panhandle Mtns but shortwave ridging aloft will yield
a few degrees of warming aloft and begin to stabilize the
atmosphere. Some cumulus buildups are likely during the afternoon
but the main threat for isolated showers or weak thunderstorms
will focus over the higher terrain of the Camas Prairie and Blue
Mtns but this carries low confidence within my CWA boundaries as
the latest SREF pops have now fallen below 10%. Chances look much
better further south into NE Oregon and southward in the Idaho
Panhandle closer to McCall, ID.

So the big story today will be gusty north to northeast winds.  We have
seen an upward trend with speeds in the evening model guidance
and have bumped up speeds for the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench,
and Basin. Sustained speeds at locations like Omak, Sandpoint,
Coeur D Alene, and across the open Columbia Basin including
Ritzville will range between 20-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph.
Area lakes could be a bit choppy if exposed to these N/NE
gradients and high profile vehicles may sway around a bit on E-W
travel routes. This morning`s LAMP guidance suggest Sandpoint AP
may come close to advisory speeds and sustained near 30 mph. This
is a bit of an outlier but will be monitored closely this morning.
Winds will peak this morning and afternoon and decrease some
overnight but generally remain in the breezy category through
midday Saturday.

Temperatures will be warming back into the 70s to lower 80s...roughly
10-15 degrees above seasonal normal`s. Overnight lows will be
cooler returning to the 40s and lower 50s and look to remain above
freezing, even in the northern valleys. /sb

Sunday and Monday: A "dry" cold front is expected to bring gusty
west or northwest winds on Sunday. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in
decent agreement that a progressive 500mb trough will spill over
the top of the West Coast ridge Sunday. Deep layer cold advection
combined with a tight westerly gradient across the Cascades will
promote gusty winds Sunday. The GFS forecasts stronger 850mb winds
(30-35kts) compared to the NAM and ECWMF (25-30kts) over the
Palouse. Using the NAM/ECMWF, it looks like sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph will be common over much of eastern Washington with
gusts to 30 mph. Locally higher winds will likely develop through
the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage late in
the day and into the early evening with gusts of 35 mph or more. A
few showers will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening along the
Cascade Crest and over the mountains of far north Idaho, but the
remainder of the Inland Northwest will lack sufficient moisture
for showers Sunday.

Monday looks to be the coolest day next week, and will likely
feature the best chance for showers, namely over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington. There is good model
agreement that vigorous cooling aloft will accompany the passage
of a 500mb low Monday. The combination of diurnal heating,
westerly upslope flow, and the arrival of a -25C to -27C cold pool
at 500mb will contribute to showers over the Panhandle and
adjacent parts of eastern Washington. Surface based CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG may support widely scattered thunderstorms. At this
time, thunderstorms have not been included in the forecast, but
may need to be added if the instability forecast remains
consistent.

Tuesday through Friday: A longwave trough is expected to become
anchored over the Dakotas for much of next week. The Idaho
Panhandle may be under the western periphery of this trough from
time to time next week leading to the possibility of scattered
afternoon showers. Tuesday morning will be seasonably chilly and
some of the typically cold spots (Deer Park, Springdale, Republic,
Priest Lake) in northeast Washington and north Idaho will dip
into the mid 30s. In general temperatures next week have been
lowered compared to the previous forecast, but in general above
average readings are expected Wednesday through Friday. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight
over far SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. This will
moisten the boundary layer and could led to areas of stratus by
sunrise near KPUW/KLWS. But for now kept prevailing conditions
MVFR due to only light rain amounts near KPUW/KLWS with the best
chance of stratus east of these TAF sites. Otherwise a tight
northerly pressure gradient develops tonight which will result in
increasing north- northeast winds especially at KMWH/KCOE by
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms
will be over the mountains near Lewiston as the increasing north-
northeast winds helps dry out the lower level air mass over much
of Central and Northeast Washington into the north Idaho
Panhandle. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  53  82  52  73  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  82  50  72  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        76  49  79  49  69  42 /  10  10  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       81  53  84  54  75  46 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  85  48  76  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      73  44  80  45  70  43 /  10  10   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        74  44  80  47  68  41 /  20  10  10   0  10  20
Moses Lake     83  53  87  51  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  57  86  56  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  52  86  51  77  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060956
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and breezy with afternoon temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The warm weather will persist into
Saturday. The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to
much of the Inland Northwest Sunday. Monday will likely be the
coolest day next week with scattered showers and high temperatures
in the 60s and low 70s. A return to warmer than average conditions
is likely by Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: The Inland NW will transition to a drier and
breezy weather pattern today. Winds diminish some Saturday while
dry weather persists. Temperatures will be warming well above
normal.

Deep southerly flow that was in place the last few days has finally
reversed with north to northeast gradients now chasing a deep low
migrating into the Southwestern US. This flow pattern is drawing
drier air in from the north and with the exception of the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie, will deliver a dry forecast this Friday.
We are still dealing with showers this morning in the Idaho
Panhandle associated with the remnants of this evening`s
convection. Expect this activity to wane around sunrise and
struggle to make little progression to the west. The dry air will
struggle to penetrate much further south and east of the Palouse
and Central Panhandle Mtns but shortwave ridging aloft will yield
a few degrees of warming aloft and begin to stabilize the
atmosphere. Some cumulus buildups are likely during the afternoon
but the main threat for isolated showers or weak thunderstorms
will focus over the higher terrain of the Camas Prairie and Blue
Mtns but this carries low confidence within my CWA boundaries as
the latest SREF pops have now fallen below 10%. Chances look much
better further south into NE Oregon and southward in the Idaho
Panhandle closer to McCall, ID.

So the big story today will be gusty north to northeast winds.  We have
seen an upward trend with speeds in the evening model guidance
and have bumped up speeds for the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench,
and Basin. Sustained speeds at locations like Omak, Sandpoint,
Coeur D Alene, and across the open Columbia Basin including
Ritzville will range between 20-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph.
Area lakes could be a bit choppy if exposed to these N/NE
gradients and high profile vehicles may sway around a bit on E-W
travel routes. This morning`s LAMP guidance suggest Sandpoint AP
may come close to advisory speeds and sustained near 30 mph. This
is a bit of an outlier but will be monitored closely this morning.
Winds will peak this morning and afternoon and decrease some
overnight but generally remain in the breezy category through
midday Saturday.

Temperatures will be warming back into the 70s to lower 80s...roughly
10-15 degrees above seasonal normal`s. Overnight lows will be
cooler returning to the 40s and lower 50s and look to remain above
freezing, even in the northern valleys. /sb

Sunday and Monday: A "dry" cold front is expected to bring gusty
west or northwest winds on Sunday. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in
decent agreement that a progressive 500mb trough will spill over
the top of the West Coast ridge Sunday. Deep layer cold advection
combined with a tight westerly gradient across the Cascades will
promote gusty winds Sunday. The GFS forecasts stronger 850mb winds
(30-35kts) compared to the NAM and ECWMF (25-30kts) over the
Palouse. Using the NAM/ECMWF, it looks like sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph will be common over much of eastern Washington with
gusts to 30 mph. Locally higher winds will likely develop through
the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage late in
the day and into the early evening with gusts of 35 mph or more. A
few showers will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening along the
Cascade Crest and over the mountains of far north Idaho, but the
remainder of the Inland Northwest will lack sufficient moisture
for showers Sunday.

Monday looks to be the coolest day next week, and will likely
feature the best chance for showers, namely over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington. There is good model
agreement that vigorous cooling aloft will accompany the passage
of a 500mb low Monday. The combination of diurnal heating,
westerly upslope flow, and the arrival of a -25C to -27C cold pool
at 500mb will contribute to showers over the Panhandle and
adjacent parts of eastern Washington. Surface based CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG may support widely scattered thunderstorms. At this
time, thunderstorms have not been included in the forecast, but
may need to be added if the instability forecast remains
consistent.

Tuesday through Friday: A longwave trough is expected to become
anchored over the Dakotas for much of next week. The Idaho
Panhandle may be under the western periphery of this trough from
time to time next week leading to the possibility of scattered
afternoon showers. Tuesday morning will be seasonably chilly and
some of the typically cold spots (Deer Park, Springdale, Republic,
Priest Lake) in northeast Washington and north Idaho will dip
into the mid 30s. In general temperatures next week have been
lowered compared to the previous forecast, but in general above
average readings are expected Wednesday through Friday. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight
over far SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. This will
moisten the boundary layer and could led to areas of stratus by
sunrise near KPUW/KLWS. But for now kept prevailing conditions
MVFR due to only light rain amounts near KPUW/KLWS with the best
chance of stratus east of these TAF sites. Otherwise a tight
northerly pressure gradient develops tonight which will result in
increasing north- northeast winds especially at KMWH/KCOE by
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms
will be over the mountains near Lewiston as the increasing north-
northeast winds helps dry out the lower level air mass over much
of Central and Northeast Washington into the north Idaho
Panhandle. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  53  82  52  73  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  82  50  72  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        76  49  79  49  69  42 /  10  10  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       81  53  84  54  75  46 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  85  48  76  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      73  44  80  45  70  43 /  10  10   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        74  44  80  47  68  41 /  20  10  10   0  10  20
Moses Lake     83  53  87  51  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  57  86  56  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  52  86  51  77  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060555
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1055 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Most of the Inland NW will see dry and mild conditions Friday
through the weekend. However breezy to locally windy conditions
are expected at times...especially Sunday afternoon and evening as
a strong cold front passes through. Cooler and unsettled weather
is expected on Monday before a warming trend begins again for the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight
over far SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. This will
moisten the boundary layer and could led to areas of stratus by
sunrise near KPUW/KLWS. But for now kept prevailing conditions
MVFR due to only light rain amounts near KPUW/KLWS with the best
chance of stratus east of these TAF sites. Otherwise a tight
northerly pressure gradient develops tonight which will result in
increasing north- northeast winds especially at KMWH/KCOE by
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms
will be over the mountains near Lewiston as the increasing north-
northeast winds helps dry out the lower level air mass over much
of Central and Northeast Washington into the north Idaho
Panhandle. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060458
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060458
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
600 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAPS analysis as of 5 pm indicated the best instability over SE
Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well as the
Clearwaters with CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG with very minimal
convective inhibition. However with the low off the Central CA
coast there is no large scale forcing to initiate convection. This
should change this evening however for the Camas Prairie, Lewiston
area, and Blue Mountains as a couple stronger storms currently
producing quite a bit of lightning approach the area...with
outflow winds likely inititating new storms as they approach these
areas. Will have to monitor potential for gusty winds and small
hail as these approach.  Further north...across the Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area...North Idaho Panhandle...and much of Central and NE
Washington low level northerly winds as well as earlier cloud
cover should help to stabilize the air mass this evening. The HRRR
shows convection falling apart as it tries to make it into these
areas this evening and thus POP`s were lowered for the remainder
of tonight. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 060100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
600 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAPS analysis as of 5 pm indicated the best instability over SE
Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well as the
Clearwaters with CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG with very minimal
convective inhibition. However with the low off the Central CA
coast there is no large scale forcing to initiate convection. This
should change this evening however for the Camas Prairie, Lewiston
area, and Blue Mountains as a couple stronger storms currently
producing quite a bit of lightning approach the area...with
outflow winds likely inititating new storms as they approach these
areas. Will have to monitor potential for gusty winds and small
hail as these approach.  Further north...across the Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area...North Idaho Panhandle...and much of Central and NE
Washington low level northerly winds as well as earlier cloud
cover should help to stabilize the air mass this evening. The HRRR
shows convection falling apart as it tries to make it into these
areas this evening and thus POP`s were lowered for the remainder
of tonight. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 052341
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The focus remains on the convective potential this
evening from the Nrn Blue Mtns, through SE Wa, and into the Idaho
Panhandle. Though mid- level heights show an upper level ridge
over this same area, typically not supportive of sustained
organized convection, the majority of model guidance tells a
different story as far as an ingredients- based approach to
thunder. This includes a plume of pwat values in excess of an inch
in southerly steering flow over SE Wa...impinging on a slow-moving
baroclinic zone/frontal boundary. This combined with moisture
convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary should be
sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by late
afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of 30-40 kts
coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg
would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned boundary.
Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok with
current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE goes,
there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may has so far
capped the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary
is in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa
mtns of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating, it
seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over these
mountains into this evening. Sky cover will play a major role for
sfc heating, and we still have less confidence that these areas
will see full insolation based on the latest satellite loops. The
main threat will be hail and very gusty winds if and when these
srn storms develop. The current showers/thunder over NE Wa should
remain steady state until dissipation early evening. bz

Friday through Sunday evening...Cold front moves through and leaves
a weak positively tilted trof or even somewhat more of a weak col or
saddle point across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The
result of having such a feature in place for Friday will be
generally a clear and dry forecast with robust brisk northeast wind
blowing across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho with perhaps
the exception of a small chance of thunderstorms near the Blue
Mountains up into extreme southern portions of Shoshone County,
Idaho Camas Prairie and the Lewiston/Clarkston area . The saddle
point or col drifts to the southeast into Saturday which allows the
dry forecast to extend through early Sunday. Later on Sunday a cold
trof drops down in a cool northwest to southeast trajectory and
further pushes the col/saddle point away to the southeast. This will
allow for winds to shift to the southwest to northwest and increase
and be a bit gusty in addition to some mention of spotty showers,
primarily over the higher terrain of Northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level trough will drop
south out of British Columbia and a period of cool and unsettled
weather will commence. Models want to close off a low pressure
center at the base of the trough and track it southeast across the
Inland Northwest. This will place the eastern half of the forecast
area in the favored location for showers for Sunday night through
Monday evening. Cannot rule out a few afternoon thunderstorms if
there is some breaks in the cloud cover over central WA. This looks
to be a rather cold trough so confidence is not high enough to place
TS in the forecast at this time. Expect much cooler temperatures on
Monday compared to Sunday. Once the trough moves east, the region
will be on a warming and drying trend. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  30  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 052120
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region this evening. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The focus remains on the convective potential this
evening from the Nrn Blue Mtns, through SE Wa, and into the Idaho
Panhandle. Though mid- level heights show an upper level ridge
over this same area, typically not supportive of sustained
organized convection, the majority of model guidance tells a
different story as far as an ingredients- based approach to
thunder. This includes a plume of pwat values in excess of an inch
in southerly steering flow over SE Wa...impinging on a slow-moving
baroclinic zone/frontal boundary. This combined with moisture
convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary should be
sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by late
afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of 30-40 kts
coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg
would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned boundary.
Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok with
current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE goes,
there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may has so far
capped the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary
is in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa
mtns of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating, it
seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over these
mountains into this evening. Sky cover will play a major role for
sfc heating, and we still have less confidence that these areas
will see full insolation based on the latest satellite loops. The
main threat will be hail and very gusty winds if and when these
srn storms develop. The current showers/thunder over NE Wa should
remain steady state until dissipation early evening. bz

Friday through Sunday evening...Cold front moves through and leaves
a weak positively tilted trof or even somewhat more of a weak col or
saddle point across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The
result of having such a feature in place for Friday will be
generally a clear and dry forecast with robust brisk northeast wind
blowing across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho with perhaps
the exception of a small chance of thunderstorms near the Blue
Mountains up into extreme southern portions of Shoshone County,
Idaho Camas Prairie and the Lewiston/Clarkston area . The saddle
point or col drifts to the southeast into Saturday which allows the
dry forecast to extend through early Sunday. Later on Sunday a cold
trof drops down in a cool northwest to southeast trajectory and
further pushes the col/saddle point away to the southeast. This will
allow for winds to shift to the southwest to northwest and increase
and be a bit gusty in addition to some mention of spotty showers,
primarily over the higher terrain of Northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level trough will drop
south out of British Columbia and a period of cool and unsettled
weather will commence. Models want to close off a low pressure
center at the base of the trough and track it southeast across the
Inland Northwest. This will place the eastern half of the forecast
area in the favored location for showers for Sunday night through
Monday evening. Cannot rule out a few afternoon thunderstorms if
there is some breaks in the cloud cover over central WA. This looks
to be a rather cold trough so confidence is not high enough to place
TS in the forecast at this time. Expect much cooler temperatures on
Monday compared to Sunday. Once the trough moves east, the region
will be on a warming and drying trend. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...the focus will
switch to the thunder potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of of
large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  30  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051739
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...the focus will
switch to the thunder potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of of
large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051739
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...the focus will
switch to the thunder potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of of
large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051658
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  60  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051658
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  60  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
509 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...

Today through Friday: Active weather will continue across the Inland NW
for the next 24-36 hours then look for abrupt drying trend into
Friday as gusty north/northeast winds develop.

A trof of low pressure will migrate into the Wrn US today.  The southern
branch of the low will evolve into a closed low over CA/NV while the
northern branch weakens but ushers a cold front in from the north.
The last 36 hours of southerly flow ahead of the approaching trof
has brought deep moisture into the Inland NW and following last
night`s convective cluster, dewpoints have climbed into the upper
40s to lower 50s. As the region warms this afternoon, the air mass
will become quite unstable leading to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some which may be strong. The cold front will push
into the Okanogan Valley early Thursday and continue toward the
south and southeast through the day. The front should make up for
the lack of shortwaves and assist in parcel displacement through
the CIN layer...ultimately resulting in convective towers and mix
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will accompany the post
frontal air mass so confidence is moderate that the Okanogan
Valley will be left out of the action following this morning`s
cluster of rain. On the contrary, the boundary will interact with
the instability early afternoon in the East Slopes, Waterville
Plateau, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Basin. This activity will
need to be monitored closely as storm motion will be slowing down
yet PWATS remain around a 0.75". It looks as if the trends in
instability will be on the decline toward the peak heating hours
so we do not anticipate strong storms in these locations but the
possibility for small hail and heavy downpours.

For the remainder of NE WA and N ID, look for scattered light showers
through much of the morning hours followed by the potential for a
lull in the action Thursday morning. The front presses through
during the late afternoon with scattered showers and t-storms
developing. Intensity of these storms carry some uncertainty due
to uncertainty with cloud cover and exactly how much CAPE will be
present as the lift comes through. Small hail and gusty winds will
be possible with any t-storm activity.

Of bigger concern is to the southeast across extreme southeastern WA
and lower ID Panhandle where we find a marginal risk for severe
weather. CAPE values look quite impressive in the late afternoon
with values ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
line from Mullan to Pullman to the Blue Mtns. Clouds could very
well keep these numbers lower and also result in a lull of shower
or t-storm activity through much of the afternoon but when and if
storms develop...they will have the potential to be strong to
locally severe producing large hail and damaging winds along with
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some models suggest the
threat will be delayed until after 5PM but cannot rule out
isolated activity sooner which generally leads to lower confidence
on exact timing.

As the weak northern branch shortwave tracks east of the region, the
atmosphere will become drawn to the deep low over CA/NV and gusty
N/NE winds will increase Thursday night and linger into Friday.
Look for an abrupt end to precipitation from north to south
Thursday evening with just a few showers or thunderstorms
lingering around the Camas Prairie and Blue Mtns overnight into
Friday morning. Most of this activity will diminish well before
Friday afternoon.

Winds will be quite gusty Thursday night and Friday, especially
down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench, and across the open
Columbia Basin. Sustained speeds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-40 mph
are a strong possibility however temperatures will already be
rebounding on Friday with highs warming back into the mid 70s. /sb

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest model runs are in fairly
good agreement through the beginning of next week at least. After
some residual showers and possible garden variety thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle Friday evening...the forecast area will
come under the drying influence of a building positively tilted
upper ridge which will keep conditions dry and once again warmer
than normal for Saturday at least. Breezy north to northeast winds
will be the most noticeable weather as dry low level air invades
the region from Canada through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
trench. Possibly as early as Sunday but certainly by early next
week the weather pattern will become more progressive as a trough
carves out of western Canada producing an initial breezy cold
front Sunday...but with not a lot of moisture...followed by an
increasing chance of showers Monday through Tuesday as the upper
trough settles into the region with a commiserate cooling of
temperatures back toward seasonal normals. This unsettled period
may begin to improve Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next ridge
builds over the region. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching frm KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  60  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 051209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
509 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...

Today through Friday: Active weather will continue across the Inland NW
for the next 24-36 hours then look for abrupt drying trend into
Friday as gusty north/northeast winds develop.

A trof of low pressure will migrate into the Wrn US today.  The southern
branch of the low will evolve into a closed low over CA/NV while the
northern branch weakens but ushers a cold front in from the north.
The last 36 hours of southerly flow ahead of the approaching trof
has brought deep moisture into the Inland NW and following last
night`s convective cluster, dewpoints have climbed into the upper
40s to lower 50s. As the region warms this afternoon, the air mass
will become quite unstable leading to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some which may be strong. The cold front will push
into the Okanogan Valley early Thursday and continue toward the
south and southeast through the day. The front should make up for
the lack of shortwaves and assist in parcel displacement through
the CIN layer...ultimately resulting in convective towers and mix
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will accompany the post
frontal air mass so confidence is moderate that the Okanogan
Valley will be left out of the action following this morning`s
cluster of rain. On the contrary, the boundary will interact with
the instability early afternoon in the East Slopes, Waterville
Plateau, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Basin. This activity will
need to be monitored closely as storm motion will be slowing down
yet PWATS remain around a 0.75". It looks as if the trends in
instability will be on the decline toward the peak heating hours
so we do not anticipate strong storms in these locations but the
possibility for small hail and heavy downpours.

For the remainder of NE WA and N ID, look for scattered light showers
through much of the morning hours followed by the potential for a
lull in the action Thursday morning. The front presses through
during the late afternoon with scattered showers and t-storms
developing. Intensity of these storms carry some uncertainty due
to uncertainty with cloud cover and exactly how much CAPE will be
present as the lift comes through. Small hail and gusty winds will
be possible with any t-storm activity.

Of bigger concern is to the southeast across extreme southeastern WA
and lower ID Panhandle where we find a marginal risk for severe
weather. CAPE values look quite impressive in the late afternoon
with values ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
line from Mullan to Pullman to the Blue Mtns. Clouds could very
well keep these numbers lower and also result in a lull of shower
or t-storm activity through much of the afternoon but when and if
storms develop...they will have the potential to be strong to
locally severe producing large hail and damaging winds along with
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some models suggest the
threat will be delayed until after 5PM but cannot rule out
isolated activity sooner which generally leads to lower confidence
on exact timing.

As the weak northern branch shortwave tracks east of the region, the
atmosphere will become drawn to the deep low over CA/NV and gusty
N/NE winds will increase Thursday night and linger into Friday.
Look for an abrupt end to precipitation from north to south
Thursday evening with just a few showers or thunderstorms
lingering around the Camas Prairie and Blue Mtns overnight into
Friday morning. Most of this activity will diminish well before
Friday afternoon.

Winds will be quite gusty Thursday night and Friday, especially
down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench, and across the open
Columbia Basin. Sustained speeds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-40 mph
are a strong possibility however temperatures will already be
rebounding on Friday with highs warming back into the mid 70s. /sb

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest model runs are in fairly
good agreement through the beginning of next week at least. After
some residual showers and possible garden variety thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle Friday evening...the forecast area will
come under the drying influence of a building positively tilted
upper ridge which will keep conditions dry and once again warmer
than normal for Saturday at least. Breezy north to northeast winds
will be the most noticeable weather as dry low level air invades
the region from Canada through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
trench. Possibly as early as Sunday but certainly by early next
week the weather pattern will become more progressive as a trough
carves out of western Canada producing an initial breezy cold
front Sunday...but with not a lot of moisture...followed by an
increasing chance of showers Monday through Tuesday as the upper
trough settles into the region with a commiserate cooling of
temperatures back toward seasonal normals. This unsettled period
may begin to improve Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next ridge
builds over the region. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching frm KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  60  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050945
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...

Today through Friday: Active weather will continue across the Inland NW
for the next 24-36 hours then look for abrupt drying trend into
Friday as gusty north/northeast winds develop.

A trof of low pressure will migrate into the Wrn US today.  The southern
branch of the low will evolve into a closed low over CA/NV while the
northern branch weakens but ushers a cold front in from the north.
The last 36 hours of southerly flow ahead of the approaching trof
has brought deep moisture into the Inland NW and following last
night`s convective cluster, dewpoints have climbed into the upper
40s to lower 50s. As the region warms this afternoon, the air mass
will become quite unstable leading to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some which may be strong. The cold front will push
into the Okanogan Valley early Thursday and continue toward the
south and southeast through the day. The front should make up for
the lack of shortwaves and assist in parcel displacement through
the CIN layer...ultimately resulting in convective towers and mix
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will accompany the post
frontal air mass so confidence is moderate that the Okanogan
Valley will be left out of the action following this morning`s
cluster of rain. On the contrary, the boundary will interact with
the instability early afternoon in the East Slopes, Waterville
Plateau, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Basin. This activity will
need to be monitored closely as storm motion will be slowing down
yet PWATS remain around a 0.75". It looks as if the trends in
instability will be on the decline toward the peak heating hours
so we do not anticipate strong storms in these locations but the
possibility for small hail and heavy downpours.

For the remainder of NE WA and N ID, look for scattered light showers
through much of the morning hours followed by the potential for a
lull in the action Thursday morning. The front presses through
during the late afternoon with scattered showers and t-storms
developing. Intensity of these storms carry some uncertainty due
to uncertainty with cloud cover and exactly how much CAPE will be
present as the lift comes through. Small hail and gusty winds will
be possible with any t-storm activity.

Of bigger concern is to the southeast across extreme southeastern WA
and lower ID Panhandle where we find a marginal risk for severe
weather. CAPE values look quite impressive in the late afternoon
with values ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
line from Mullan to Pullman to the Blue Mtns. Clouds could very
well keep these numbers lower and also result in a lull of shower
or t-storm activity through much of the afternoon but when and if
storms develop...they will have the potential to be strong to
locally severe producing large hail and damaging winds along with
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some models suggest the
threat will be delayed until after 5PM but cannot rule out
isolated activity sooner which generally leads to lower confidence
on exact timing.

As the weak northern branch shortwave tracks east of the region, the
atmosphere will become drawn to the deep low over CA/NV and gusty
N/NE winds will increase Thursday night and linger into Friday.
Look for an abrupt end to precipitation from north to south
Thursday evening with just a few showers or thunderstorms
lingering around the Camas Prairie and Blue Mtns overnight into
Friday morning. Most of this activity will diminish well before
Friday afternoon.

Winds will be quite gusty Thursday night and Friday, especially
down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench, and across the open
Columbia Basin. Sustained speeds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-40 mph
are a strong possibility however temperatures will already be
rebounding on Friday with highs warming back into the mid 70s. /sb

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest model runs are in fairly
good agreement through the beginning of next week at least. After
some residual showers and possible garden variety thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle Friday evening...the forecast area will
come under the drying influence of a building positively tilted
upper ridge which will keep conditions dry and once again warmer
than normal for Saturday at least. Breezy north to northeast winds
will be the most noticeable weather as dry low level air invades
the region from Canada through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
trench. Possibly as early as Sunday but certainly by early next
week the weather pattern will become more progressive as a trough
carves out of western Canada producing an initial breezy cold
front Sunday...but with not a lot of moisture...followed by an
increasing chance of showers Monday through Tuesday as the upper
trough settles into the region with a commiserate cooling of
temperatures back toward seasonal normals. This unsettled period
may begin to improve Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next ridge
builds over the region. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Focus of 06Z TAFs is timing and impact of imminent gust
front. Doppler velocities tracking in the 50 to 60 kt range,
headed for GEG. Impacts expected to be less at SFF and COE. Will
need amendments to address rest of forecast after the gust front
passes. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  60  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Focus of 06Z TAFs is timing and impact of imminent gust
front. Doppler velocities tracking in the 50 to 60 kt range,
headed for GEG. Impacts expected to be less at SFF and COE. Will
need ammendments to address rest of forecast after the gust front
passes. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Focus of 06Z TAFs is timing and impact of imminent gust
front. Doppler velocities tracking in the 50 to 60 kt range,
headed for GEG. Impacts expected to be less at SFF and COE. Will
need ammendments to address rest of forecast after the gust front
passes. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050502
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 050502
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 042352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A moist southerly flow of moisture and
energy keeps this time interval unsettled and cluttered with
showers and thunderstorms in various shape and/or form. A storm
motion from south to north at 25 mph keeps the thunderstorms
moving quickly overnight tonight. Thursday the storm motion
changes to a slower motion to the southeast at less than 5 mph
over the East Slopes of the Cascades and into parts of the
Okanogan Highlands down to part of the Columbia Basin while
further east over Extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho the
storm motion is a bit quicker and expected to move storms
southwest to northeast at 15 to 20 mph. The instability is greater
over southeast Washington and all of the North Idaho Panhandle
Thursday which is one of the reasons it is mentioned in a Marginal
Risk of Severe Weather in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2
Outlook. Gusty wind, small hail, and brief heavy downpours are the
expected nuisance weather associated with any thunderstorms.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Wednesday: The Inland NW dries out
and warms up before a threat of mainly mountain showers returns
early next week. Between Thursday night and Saturday a strong cut-
off low sags toward the Desert Southwest, placing our region in an
east to northeasterly flow. A weakening deformation axis and minor
impulsing rounding the north side of the low will keep a slight
risk for showers and thunderstorms across the southeast CWA
through Saturday. The remainder of the CWA will be dry. However
winds will be a concern with a tight northeast to southwest
gradient. Winds should be breezy both Friday and Saturday. Yet
winds look strongest on Friday with speeds in the 15-20 mph range
and gusts to 30 mph, before they start to slacken going into
Saturday.

From Sunday into Wednesday the next long-wave trough (now moving
into the Gulf of AK) migrates into western Canada and then into
the northern Rockies. Sunday moisture starts to creep up from the
south again, bolstering shower chances near the southeast CWA.
Other chances return to the northern mountains. Sunday night into
Wednesday the jet streams sags into the Inland Northwest, carrying
shortwaves and the threat of showers in. However the threat will
be somewhat limited by the fact not a lot of deep moisture or
instability comes into the region. What does exists appears best
across northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and so is where the
best shower threat will be. Expect breezy conditions between
Sunday and Monday with the incoming trough too. Temperatures
undergo a warming trend through Sunday, with highs some 10-15
degrees above normal, before the trough pushes values back down to
maybe 5 degrees above normal. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  50  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  50  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  50  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  40  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  40  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  30  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  30  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  60  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 042352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A moist southerly flow of moisture and
energy keeps this time interval unsettled and cluttered with
showers and thunderstorms in various shape and/or form. A storm
motion from south to north at 25 mph keeps the thunderstorms
moving quickly overnight tonight. Thursday the storm motion
changes to a slower motion to the southeast at less than 5 mph
over the East Slopes of the Cascades and into parts of the
Okanogan Highlands down to part of the Columbia Basin while
further east over Extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho the
storm motion is a bit quicker and expected to move storms
southwest to northeast at 15 to 20 mph. The instability is greater
over southeast Washington and all of the North Idaho Panhandle
Thursday which is one of the reasons it is mentioned in a Marginal
Risk of Severe Weather in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2
Outlook. Gusty wind, small hail, and brief heavy downpours are the
expected nuisance weather associated with any thunderstorms.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Wednesday: The Inland NW dries out
and warms up before a threat of mainly mountain showers returns
early next week. Between Thursday night and Saturday a strong cut-
off low sags toward the Desert Southwest, placing our region in an
east to northeasterly flow. A weakening deformation axis and minor
impulsing rounding the north side of the low will keep a slight
risk for showers and thunderstorms across the southeast CWA
through Saturday. The remainder of the CWA will be dry. However
winds will be a concern with a tight northeast to southwest
gradient. Winds should be breezy both Friday and Saturday. Yet
winds look strongest on Friday with speeds in the 15-20 mph range
and gusts to 30 mph, before they start to slacken going into
Saturday.

From Sunday into Wednesday the next long-wave trough (now moving
into the Gulf of AK) migrates into western Canada and then into
the northern Rockies. Sunday moisture starts to creep up from the
south again, bolstering shower chances near the southeast CWA.
Other chances return to the northern mountains. Sunday night into
Wednesday the jet streams sags into the Inland Northwest, carrying
shortwaves and the threat of showers in. However the threat will
be somewhat limited by the fact not a lot of deep moisture or
instability comes into the region. What does exists appears best
across northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and so is where the
best shower threat will be. Expect breezy conditions between
Sunday and Monday with the incoming trough too. Temperatures
undergo a warming trend through Sunday, with highs some 10-15
degrees above normal, before the trough pushes values back down to
maybe 5 degrees above normal. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  50  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  50  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  50  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  40  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  40  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  30  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  30  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  60  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 042116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A moist southerly flow of moisture and
energy keeps this time interval unsettled and cluttered with
showers and thunderstorms in various shape and/or form. A storm
motion from south to north at 25 mph keeps the thunderstorms
moving quickly overnight tonight. Thursday the storm motion
changes to a slower motion to the southeast at less than 5 mph
over the East Slopes of the Cascades and into parts of the
Okanogan Highlands down to part of the Columbia Basin while
further east over Extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho the
storm motion is a bit quicker and expected to move storms
southwest to northeast at 15 to 20 mph. The instability is greater
over southeast Washington and all of the North Idaho Panhandle
Thursday which is one of the reasons it is mentioned in a Marginal
Risk of Severe Weather in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2
Outlook. Gusty wind, small hail, and brief heavy downpours are the
expected nuisance weather associated with any thunderstorms.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Wednesday: The Inland NW dries out
and warms up before a threat of mainly mountain showers returns
early next week. Between Thursday night and Saturday a strong cut-
off low sags toward the Desert Southwest, placing our region in an
east to northeasterly flow. A weakening deformation axis and minor
impulsing rounding the north side of the low will keep a slight
risk for showers and thunderstorms across the southeast CWA
through Saturday. The remainder of the CWA will be dry. However
winds will be a concern with a tight northeast to southwest
gradient. Winds should be breezy both Friday and Saturday. Yet
winds look strongest on Friday with speeds in the 15-20 mph range
and gusts to 30 mph, before they start to slacken going into
Saturday.

From Sunday into Wednesday the next long-wave trough (now moving
into the Gulf of AK) migrates into western Canada and then into
the northern Rockies. Sunday moisture starts to creep up from the
south again, bolstering shower chances near the southeast CWA.
Other chances return to the northern mountains. Sunday night into
Wednesday the jet streams sags into the Inland Northwest, carrying
shortwaves and the threat of showers in. However the threat will
be somewhat limited by the fact not a lot of deep moisture or
instability comes into the region. What does exists appears best
across northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and so is where the
best shower threat will be. Expect breezy conditions between
Sunday and Monday with the incoming trough too. Temperatures
undergo a warming trend through Sunday, with highs some 10-15
degrees above normal, before the trough pushes values back down to
maybe 5 degrees above normal. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for showers
and thunderstorms to move up from south to north with a storm
motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities to the
aviation area. Currently some light elevated convective showers
are moving north at 30 mph through the aviation area but those
should diminish during the day. The expectation is more
thunderstorms will develop and primarily in the time interval
between 23Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small
hail, and gusty wind will be the primary nuisance associated with
these thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  50  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  50  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  50  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  40  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  40  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  30  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  30  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  60  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041831
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1131 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A second morning update to increase pops slightly to better
address the elevated convective showers that are moving north at
20 mph thorugh Eastern Oregon and up over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho today. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041831
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1131 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A second morning update to increase pops slightly to better
address the elevated convective showers that are moving north at
20 mph thorugh Eastern Oregon and up over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho today. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041622
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041622
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041358
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
658 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small update sent this morning to add spotty sprinkles and light
showers to Ern WA based on latest radar imagery.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

DISCUSSION...

..THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

Today through Thursday: Southerly flow has become established over
the Inland NW and morning satellite reveals moisture surging
northward into the region. The combination of an abnormally warm
air mass, rich moisture transport, and at times, and some form of
weak forcing will increase the risk for showers and thunderstorms
during the next 48 hours. With PWATS topping out between
0.70-0.90", nearly 2-3 standardized deviations from normal, the
threat for showers and storms producing heavy rainfall will remain
a concern. On the contrary, a modest south to north storm motion near
25-30 mph is not as favorable so the threat for copious rainfall
amounts in any given area will rely on the training or
redeveloping cells over a common point. If this was to occur,
especially over recent burn scars, it is conceivable that rainfall
amounts in excess of half an inch will be possible which could
lead to localized debris flows or flooding.

There will be two shortwaves that come into play through Thursday
morning then followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon. This
will drive our highest confidence for thunderstorm placement.
Outside these features, diurnal wind cycles and ridgetop
convergence on the higher terrain is likely to complicate matters
further and keep the threat for isolated storms in most locations.

The first shortwave is passing over the Cascades this morning and
driving scattered midlevel showers. This activity is drifting
north around 30 mph and should pose little threat for heavy
rainfall. Afternoon heating will and terrain driven winds will
become the next mechanism for activity this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm activity this afternoon will not only exist in the
Cascades, but now expand into the northeastern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle and down into the Blue Mtns. few showers or storms may
drift into the Basin but the threat is generally low. The Okanogan
Highlands and East Slopes will be monitored for isolated heavy
rain producers.

The second shortwave arrives tonight and is expected to drive a cluster
of showers and storms through Central/Eastern WA. There is some
uncertainty on the exact track and intensity of this activity but
model trends have been toward stronger and wetter with the NAM/GFS
indicating a stripe of 0.30-0.60" through the overnight periods.
Most guidance places this over the Cascade East Slopes but some
have hinted slightly east into the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan
Highlands. This will remain a concern for burn scars well through
the overnight periods. Timing looks to also be increasing slightly
each run which may allow a few storms to cross into the lower
Columbia Basin prior to dark. Scattered light showers are expected
east of this heavier activity moving through the remainder of Ern
WA and N ID. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but
intensity is not expected to be on the same caliber as what occurs
closer to the Cascades.

In the wake of this nocturnal activity, the atmosphere will be
moistened and primed for more thunderstorms on Thursday. Models
continue to indicate the potential for CAPE values near 1000 J/kg
give or take a few hundreds across the Idaho Panhandle, Blue Mtns,
and wrapping back into NE Washington. There looks to lack a
significant shortwave to aggravate the air mass but a surface low
tracking through Ern WA...northern Idaho...and into NW MT will
drag a cold front in from the northwest. This boundary should be
sufficient for thunderstorm develop across the Okanogan Highlands,
northeast mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle. A few storms have
a modest chance of developing along the boundary as it crosses
into the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cda Area as well.
Meanwhile, west to northwest flow will enhance lift into the
rising terrain of the Central Panhandle Mtns, Camas Prairie, and
Blue Mtns and this looks to be the second area carrying a higher
threat for storms. With the given CAPE and shear profiles, these
storms will have the potential to be stronger and include modest
hail and gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall. We have also
seen an upward trend in the models with convection developing in
the Cascades and Western Basin as the north/northwest push comes
through Thursday afternoon. Pops have been increased but CAPE is
not as impressive so storms should not be as intense but something
to monitor in the event that these trends continue upward. /sb

Thursday night through Tuesday...The active weather period featuring
shower and potentially strong thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday evening...but die down overnight. This will be due to a
split flow developing as the highly meridional trough which will
bring the deep moisture feed and forcing to the region over the
next two days pinches off into a closed low far to the south of
the region...allowing a more progressive northern branch flow to
finally push the deep moisture off to the east and south of the
forecast area. There will be a drying trend overnight Thursday
from west to east...but even on Friday some residual moisture and
instability will promote some lingering showers and garden variety
thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington
zones. The rest of the forecast area will be subject to breezy
north to northeast winds as a shot of noticeably drier air is
forced through northern gaps into the basin on Friday and into
Saturday.

The upcoming weekend looks like a mainly dry and sunny period for
most of the region...if any appreciable clouds occur they will be
confined to the southeast zones. Temperatures will rapidly recover
to once again well above normal...back to the upper 70s to mid
80s by Saturday and Sunday.

For the new work week the flow regime will become progressive
again with a dry cold front passage on or about Sunday night or
Monday featuring breezy westerly winds across much of the
region...then turning more northerly as another shot of
continental air invades the region from the north. This cold front
will bring little in the way of precipitation except fro some
showers to the orographically favorable Idaho Panhandle...but will
help moderate temperatures back to slightly above normal...low to
mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday. /Fugazzi

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb

12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  40  60  40  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  30  60  40  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  20  40  50  40  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  40  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 041313
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
613 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

Today through Thursday: Southerly flow has become established over
the Inland NW and morning satellite reveals moisture surging
northward into the region. The combination of an abnormally warm
air mass, rich moisture transport, and at times, and some form of
weak forcing will increase the risk for showers and thunderstorms
during the next 48 hours. With PWATS topping out between
0.70-0.90", nearly 2-3 standardized deviations from normal, the
threat for showers and storms producing heavy rainfall will remain
a concern. On the contrary, a modest south to north storm motion near
25-30 mph is not as favorable so the threat for copious rainfall
amounts in any given area will rely on the training or
redeveloping cells over a common point. If this was to occur,
especially over recent burn scars, it is conceivable that rainfall
amounts in excess of half an inch will be possible which could
lead to localized debris flows or flooding.

There will be two shortwaves that come into play through Thursday
morning then followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon. This
will drive our highest confidence for thunderstorm placement.
Outside these features, diurnal wind cycles and ridgetop
convergence on the higher terrain is likely to complicate matters
further and keep the threat for isolated storms in most locations.

The first shortwave is passing over the Cascades this morning and
driving scattered midlevel showers. This activity is drifting
north around 30 mph and should pose little threat for heavy
rainfall. Afternoon heating will and terrain driven winds will
become the next mechanism for activity this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm activity this afternoon will not only exist in the
Cascades, but now expand into the northeastern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle and down into the Blue Mtns. few showers or storms may
drift into the Basin but the threat is generally low. The Okanogan
Highlands and East Slopes will be monitored for isolated heavy
rain producers.

The second shortwave arrives tonight and is expected to drive a cluster
of showers and storms through Central/Eastern WA. There is some
uncertainty on the exact track and intensity of this activity but
model trends have been toward stronger and wetter with the NAM/GFS
indicating a stripe of 0.30-0.60" through the overnight periods.
Most guidance places this over the Cascade East Slopes but some
have hinted slightly east into the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan
Highlands. This will remain a concern for burn scars well through
the overnight periods. Timing looks to also be increasing slightly
each run which may allow a few storms to cross into the lower
Columbia Basin prior to dark. Scattered light showers are expected
east of this heavier activity moving through the remainder of Ern
WA and N ID. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but
intensity is not expected to be on the same caliber as what occurs
closer to the Cascades.

In the wake of this nocturnal activity, the atmosphere will be
moistened and primed for more thunderstorms on Thursday. Models
continue to indicate the potential for CAPE values near 1000 J/kg
give or take a few hundreds across the Idaho Panhandle, Blue Mtns,
and wrapping back into NE Washington. There looks to lack a
significant shortwave to aggravate the air mass but a surface low
tracking through Ern WA...northern Idaho...and into NW MT will
drag a cold front in from the northwest. This boundary should be
sufficient for thunderstorm develop across the Okanogan Highlands,
northeast mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle. A few storms have
a modest chance of developing along the boundary as it crosses
into the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cda Area as well.
Meanwhile, west to northwest flow will enhance lift into the
rising terrain of the Central Panhandle Mtns, Camas Prairie, and
Blue Mtns and this looks to be the second area carrying a higher
threat for storms. With the given CAPE and shear profiles, these
storms will have the potential to be stronger and include modest
hail and gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall. We have also
seen an upward trend in the models with convection developing in
the Cascades and Western Basin as the north/northwest push comes
through Thursday afternoon. Pops have been increased but CAPE is
not as impressive so storms should not be as intense but something
to monitor in the event that these trends continue upward. /sb

Thursday night through Tuesday...The active weather period featuring
shower and potentially strong thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday evening...but die down overnight. This will be due to a
split flow developing as the highly meridional trough which will
bring the deep moisture feed and forcing to the region over the
next two days pinches off into a closed low far to the south of
the region...allowing a more progressive northern branch flow to
finally push the deep moisture off to the east and south of the
forecast area. There will be a drying trend overnight Thursday
from west to east...but even on Friday some residual moisture and
instability will promote some lingering showers and garden variety
thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington
zones. The rest of the forecast area will be subject to breezy
north to northeast winds as a shot of noticeably drier air is
forced through northern gaps into the basin on Friday and into
Saturday.

The upcoming weekend looks like a mainly dry and sunny period for
most of the region...if any appreciable clouds occur they will be
confined to the southeast zones. Temperatures will rapidly recover
to once again well above normal...back to the upper 70s to mid
80s by Saturday and Sunday.

For the new work week the flow regime will become progressive
again with a dry cold front passage on or about Sunday night or
Monday featuring breezy westerly winds across much of the
region...then turning more northerly as another shot of
continental air invades the region from the north. This cold front
will bring little in the way of precipitation except fro some
showers to the orographically favorable Idaho Panhandle...but will
help moderate temperatures back to slightly above normal...low to
mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  10  40  60  40  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  30  60  40  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  10  40  50  40  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  40  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  40  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  50  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

Today through Thursday: Southerly flow has become established over
the Inland NW and morning satellite reveals moisture surging
northward into the region. The combination of an abnormally warm
air mass, rich moisture transport, and at times, and some form of
weak forcing will increase the risk for showers and thunderstorms
during the next 48 hours. With PWATS topping out between
0.70-0.90", nearly 2-3 standardized deviations from normal, the
threat for showers and storms producing heavy rainfall will remain
a concern. On the contrary, a modest south to north storm track
near 25-30 mph is not as favorable so the threat for copious
rainfall amounts in any given area will rely on the training or
redeveloping cells over a common point. If this was to occur,
especially over recent burn scars, it is conceivable that rainfall
amounts in excess of half an inch will be possible which could
lead to localized debris flows or flooding.

There will be two shortwaves that come into play through Thursday
morning then followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon. This
will drive our highest confidence for thunderstorm placement.
Outside these features, diurnal wind cycles and ridgetop
convergence on the higher terrain is likely to complicate matters
further and keep the threat for isolated storms in most locations.

The first shortwave is passing over the Cascades this morning and
driving scattered midlevel showers. This activity is drifting
north around 30 mph and should pose little threat for heavy
rainfall. Afternoon heating will and terrain driven winds will
become the next mechanism for activity this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm activity this afternoon will not only exist in the
Cascades, but now expand into the northeastern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle and down into the Blue Mtns. few showers or storms may
drift into the Basin but the threat is generally low. The Okanogan
Highlands and East Slopes will be monitored for isolated heavy
rain producers.

The second shortwave arrives tonight and is expected to drive a cluster
of showers and storms through Central/Eastern WA. There is some
uncertainty on the exact track and intensity of this activity but
model trends have been toward stronger and wetter with the NAM/GFS
indicating a stripe of 0.30-0.60" through the overnight periods.
Most guidance places this over the Cascade East Slopes but some
have hinted slightly east into the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan
Highlands. This will remain a concern for burn scars well through
the overnight periods. Timing looks to also be increasing slightly
each run which may allow a few storms to cross into the lower
Columbia Basin prior to dark. Scattered light showers are expected
east of this heavier activity moving through the remainder of Ern
WA and N ID. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but
intensity is not expected to be on the same caliber as what occurs
closer to the Cascades.

In the wake of this nocturnal activity, the atmosphere will be
moistened and primed for more thunderstorms on Thursday. Models
continue to indicate the potential for CAPE values near 1000 J/kg
give or take a few hundreds across the Idaho Panhandle, Blue Mtns,
and wrapping back into NE Washington. There looks to lack a
significant shortwave to aggravate the air mass but a surface low
tracking through Ern WA...northern Idaho...and into NW MT will
drag a cold front in from the northwest. This boundary should be
sufficient for thunderstorm develop across the Okanogan Highlands,
northeast mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle. A few storms have
a modest chance of developing along the boundary as it crosses
into the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cda Area as well.
Meanwhile, west to northwest flow will enhance lift into the
rising terrain of the Central Panhandle Mtns, Camas Prairie, and
Blue Mtns and this looks to be the second area carrying a higher
threat for storms. With the given CAPE and shear profiles, these
storms will have the potential to be stronger and include modest
hail and gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall. We have also
seen an upward trend in the models with convection developing in
the Cascades and Western Basin as the north/northwest push comes
through Thursday afternoon. Pops have been increased but CAPE is
not as impressive so storms should not be as intense but something
to monitor in the event that these trends continue upward. /sb

Thursday night through Tuesday...The active weather period featuring
shower and potentially strong thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday evening...but die down overnight. This will be due to a
split flow developing as the highly meridional trough which will
bring the deep moisture feed and forcing to the region over the
next two days pinches off into a closed low far to the south of
the region...allowing a more progressive northern branch flow to
finally push the deep moisture off to the east and south of the
forecast area. There will be a drying trend overnight Thursday
from west to east...but even on Friday some residual moisture and
instability will promote some lingering showers and garden variety
thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington
zones. The rest of the forecast area will be subject to breezy
north to northeast winds as a shot of noticeably drier air is
forced through northern gaps into the basin on Friday and into
Saturday.

The upcoming weekend looks like a mainly dry and sunny period for
most of the region...if any appreciable clouds occur they will be
confined to the southeast zones. Temperatures will rapidly recover
to once again well above normal...back to the upper 70s to mid
80s by Saturday and Sunday.

For the new work week the flow regime will become progressive
again with a dry cold front passage on or about Sunday night or
Monday featuring breezy westerly winds across much of the
region...then turning more northerly as another shot of
continental air invades the region from the north. This cold front
will bring little in the way of precipitation except fro some
showers to the orographically favorable Idaho Panhandle...but will
help moderate temperatures back to slightly above normal...low to
mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Southerly flow will continue over the region through
Wednesday evening. At 06Z an area of scattered showers was approaching
EAT, with the eastern flank set to clip MWH. These should move
north by 11z and then expect high ceilings and good visibilities.
Some high based afternoon cumulus development is expected Wednesday
afternoon and this should persist into the evening. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  10  40  60  40  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  30  60  40  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  10  40  50  40  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  40  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  40  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  50  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to slowly shift east over the next
couple days allowing more moisture into the region. This will
result in a cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by late
Wednesday and Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again late
on Friday, lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...

...Thunderstorms on the Cascade Crest Tonight...

Persistent southerly flow and instability as high pressure moves east
will start a gradual change in the weather this week. Isolated
thunderstorms started popping directly on the Cascade Crest
crossing Stampede Pass and I-90 around 2 pm PDT. This will be the
trend the rest of the night as these storms crawl north up the
Cascade spine but are not expected to move much farther east.
Overall thunderstorm characteristics will have light to moderate
showers and possibly small hail. Fortunately most storms will
steer clear of the burn areas of concern in the Cascade region for
tonight. Going into Wednesday as significant moisture spreads into
the region mixed with warm temperatures creating instability, isolated
showers and afternoon thunderstorms can be expected to develop
farther east even into the Idaho Panhandle by late Wednesday
afternoon. At this time there appears to be no significant
dynamics to focus thunderstorm strength on Wednesday. However,
the occasional lightning strike is a concern so be cautious if
thunderstorms are nearby. TC

Wednesday Night through Friday: An active weather pattern is expected
during this period. A meridional trough will be pushing through
the region bringing possibilities of heavy rains and
thunderstorms to the region.

First concern will be significant rain in along the Cascades and
impacting the burn scars causing possible flash flooding. The
timing of this will be Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Models are indicating a line of precip that will train over the
Cascades bringing a quarter to half on inch of rain for the
period. Most of the Inland Northwest can expect a few hundredths
to a tenth of rain.

Second concern will be thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. The
best potential will be extreme Southeast Wa and Central ID
Panhandle. This area is expected to have the strong thunderstorms
with small hail and gusty winds. The rest of the Inland Northwest
could get a lightning strike and some breezy winds with storm
cells.

By Friday, the trough has pushed east of the region and ridging
begins to build into the region. Some rain showers are possible in
the Idaho Panhandle. High Temperatures for this period are
expected to be mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will range from mid 40s to
low 50s. /JDC

Saturday through Tuesday: As high pressure continues to build in
the region of the weekend, warm and sunny conditions are expected
with highs upper 70s to mid 80s. This will begin to change early
next week as upper level northwest flow will bring in cooler
temperatures and chance of showers to extreme Eastern WA and ID
Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the low 70s to low
80s. /fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Southerly flow will continue over the region through
Wednesday evening. At 06Z an area of scattered showers was approaching
EAT, with the eastern flank set to clip MWH. These should move
north by 11z and then expect high cielings and good visibilities.
Some high based afternoon cumulus development is expected Wednesday
afternoon and this should persist into the evening. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  79  55  70  52  76 /   0  10  50  60  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  49  79  51  71  49  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Pullman        48  77  50  68  48  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Lewiston       52  83  55  73  52  79 /   0  10  40  40  40  30
Colville       46  80  48  72  45  79 /   0  40  40  60  30  20
Sandpoint      44  78  48  69  45  72 /   0  20  40  60  30  20
Kellogg        45  80  46  72  44  72 /   0  10  30  50  40  40
Moses Lake     55  80  52  74  49  81 /  10  20  50  50  20  10
Wenatchee      56  77  55  72  53  81 /  20  30  50  40  20  10
Omak           52  78  53  71  48  80 /  10  20  50  60  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 040528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to slowly shift east over the next
couple days allowing more moisture into the region. This will
result in a cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by late
Wednesday and Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again late
on Friday, lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...

...Thunderstorms on the Cascade Crest Tonight...

Persistent southerly flow and instability as high pressure moves east
will start a gradual change in the weather this week. Isolated
thunderstorms started popping directly on the Cascade Crest
crossing Stampede Pass and I-90 around 2 pm PDT. This will be the
trend the rest of the night as these storms crawl north up the
Cascade spine but are not expected to move much farther east.
Overall thunderstorm characteristics will have light to moderate
showers and possibly small hail. Fortunately most storms will
steer clear of the burn areas of concern in the Cascade region for
tonight. Going into Wednesday as significant moisture spreads into
the region mixed with warm temperatures creating instability, isolated
showers and afternoon thunderstorms can be expected to develop
farther east even into the Idaho Panhandle by late Wednesday
afternoon. At this time there appears to be no significant
dynamics to focus thunderstorm strength on Wednesday. However,
the occasional lightning strike is a concern so be cautious if
thunderstorms are nearby. TC

Wednesday Night through Friday: An active weather pattern is expected
during this period. A meridional trough will be pushing through
the region bringing possibilities of heavy rains and
thunderstorms to the region.

First concern will be significant rain in along the Cascades and
impacting the burn scars causing possible flash flooding. The
timing of this will be Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Models are indicating a line of precip that will train over the
Cascades bringing a quarter to half on inch of rain for the
period. Most of the Inland Northwest can expect a few hundredths
to a tenth of rain.

Second concern will be thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. The
best potential will be extreme Southeast Wa and Central ID
Panhandle. This area is expected to have the strong thunderstorms
with small hail and gusty winds. The rest of the Inland Northwest
could get a lightning strike and some breezy winds with storm
cells.

By Friday, the trough has pushed east of the region and ridging
begins to build into the region. Some rain showers are possible in
the Idaho Panhandle. High Temperatures for this period are
expected to be mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will range from mid 40s to
low 50s. /JDC

Saturday through Tuesday: As high pressure continues to build in
the region of the weekend, warm and sunny conditions are expected
with highs upper 70s to mid 80s. This will begin to change early
next week as upper level northwest flow will bring in cooler
temperatures and chance of showers to extreme Eastern WA and ID
Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the low 70s to low
80s. /fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Southerly flow will continue over the region through
Wednesday evening. At 06Z an area of scattered showers was approaching
EAT, with the eastern flank set to clip MWH. These should move
north by 11z and then expect high cielings and good visibilities.
Some high based afternoon cumulus development is expected Wednesday
afternoon and this should persist into the evening. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  79  55  70  52  76 /   0  10  50  60  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  49  79  51  71  49  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Pullman        48  77  50  68  48  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Lewiston       52  83  55  73  52  79 /   0  10  40  40  40  30
Colville       46  80  48  72  45  79 /   0  40  40  60  30  20
Sandpoint      44  78  48  69  45  72 /   0  20  40  60  30  20
Kellogg        45  80  46  72  44  72 /   0  10  30  50  40  40
Moses Lake     55  80  52  74  49  81 /  10  20  50  50  20  10
Wenatchee      56  77  55  72  53  81 /  20  30  50  40  20  10
Omak           52  78  53  71  48  80 /  10  20  50  60  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 032351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to slowly shift east over the next
couple days allowing more moisture into the region. This will
result in a cooler, unsettled pattern with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain by late
Wednesday and Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again late
on Friday, lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...

...Thunderstorms on the Cascade Crest Tonight...

Persistent southerly flow and instability as high pressure moves east
will start a gradual change in the weather this week. Isolated
thunderstorms started popping directly on the Cascade Crest
crossing Stampede Pass and I-90 around 2 pm PDT. This will be the
trend the rest of the night as these storms crawl north up the
Cascade spine but are not expected to move much farther east.
Overall thunderstorm characteristics will have light to moderate
showers and possibly small hail. Fortunately most storms will
steer clear of the burn areas of concern in the Cascade region for
tonight. Going into Wednesday as significant moisture spreads into
the region mixed with warm temperatures creating instability, isolated
showers and afternoon thunderstorms can be expected to develop
farther east even into the Idaho Panhandle by late Wednesday
afternoon. At this time there appears to be no significant
dynamics to focus thunderstorm strength on Wednesday. However,
the occasional lightning strike is a concern so be cautious if
thunderstorms are nearby. TC

Wednesday Night through Friday: An active weather pattern is expected
during this period. A meridional trough will be pushing through
the region bringing possibilities of heavy rains and
thunderstorms to the region.

First concern will be significant rain in along the Cascades and
impacting the burn scars causing possible flash flooding. The
timing of this will be Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Models are indicating a line of precip that will train over the
Cascades bringing a quarter to half on inch of rain for the
period. Most of the Inland Northwest can expect a few hundredths
to a tenth of rain.

Second concern will be thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. The
best potential will be extreme Southeast Wa and Central ID
Panhandle. This area is expected to have the strong thunderstorms
with small hail and gusty winds. The rest of the Inland Northwest
could get a lightning strike and some breezy winds with storm
cells.

By Friday, the trough has pushed east of the region and ridging
begins to build into the region. Some rain showers are possible in
the Idaho Panhandle. High Temperatures for this period are
expected to be mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will range from mid 40s to
low 50s. /JDC

Saturday through Tuesday: As high pressure continues to build in
the region of the weekend, warm and sunny conditions are expected
with highs upper 70s to mid 80s. This will begin to change early
next week as upper level northwest flow will bring in cooler
temperatures and chance of showers to extreme Eastern WA and ID
Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the low 70s to low
80s. /fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Southerly flow will continue over the region through
Wednesday afternoon. At 00Z scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms were confined along the Cascade Crest. More showers
were developing along the east slopes of the southern Cascades.
Expect these to move north over the Wenatchee area between 04Z and
08Z, and they may extend as far east as Moses Lake. Cielings will
remain high and no signficant reduction in visilbility is
expected. The advancing mid-level moisture is expected to form
cielings in the 8K to 10k range area wide Wednesday morning. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  79  55  70  52  76 /   0  10  50  60  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  49  79  51  71  49  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Pullman        48  77  50  68  48  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Lewiston       52  83  55  73  52  79 /   0  10  40  40  40  30
Colville       46  80  48  72  45  79 /   0  40  40  60  30  20
Sandpoint      44  78  48  69  45  72 /   0  20  40  60  30  20
Kellogg        45  80  46  72  44  72 /   0  10  30  50  40  40
Moses Lake     55  80  52  74  49  81 /  10  20  50  50  20  10
Wenatchee      56  77  55  72  53  81 /  20  30  50  40  20  10
Omak           52  78  53  71  48  80 /  10  20  50  60  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 032132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to slowly shift east the next couple days
allowing more weather into the region. Slow moving weather
disturbance will move through the region along with significant
moisture. This will result in a cooler, unsettled pattern with a
good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain
by late Wednesday and Thursday. Improving conditions will begin
again late on Friday, lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...

...Thunderstorms on the Cascade Crest Tonight...

Persistent southerly flow and instability as high pressure moves east
will start a gradual change in the weather this week. Isolated
thunderstorms started popping directly on the Cascade Crest
crossing Stampede Pass and I-90 around 2 pm PDT. This will be the
trend the rest of the night as these storms crawl north up the
Cascade spine but are not expected to move much farther east.
Overall thunderstorm characteristics will have light to moderate
showers and possibly small hail. Fortunately most storms will
steer clear of the burn areas of concern in the Cascade region for
tonight. Going into Wednesday as significant moisture spreads into
the region mixed with warm temperatures creating instability, isolated
showers and afternoon thunderstorms can be expected to develop
farther east even into the Idaho Panhandle by late Wednesday
afternoon. At this time there appears to be no significant
dynamics to focus thunderstorm strength on Wednesday. However,
the occasional lightning strike is a concern so be cautious if
thunderstorms are nearby. TC

Wednesday Night through Friday: An active weather pattern is expected
during this period. A meridional trough will be pushing through
the region bringing possibilities of heavy rains and
thunderstorms to the region.

First concern will be significant rain in along the Cascades and
impacting the burn scars causing possible flash flooding. The
timing of this will be Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Models are indicating a line of precip that will train over the
Cascades bringing a quarter to half on inch of rain for the
period. Most of the Inland Northwest can expect a few hundredths
to a tenth of rain.

Second concern will be thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. The
best potential will be extreme Southeast Wa and Central ID
Panhandle. This area is expected to have the strong thunderstorms
with small hail and gusty winds. The rest of the Inland Northwest
could get a lightning strike and some breezy winds with storm
cells.

By Friday, the trough has pushed east of the region and ridging
begins to build into the region. Some rain showers are possible in
the Idaho Panhandle. High Temperatures for this period are
expected to be mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will range from mid 40s to
low 50s. /JDC

Saturday through Tuesday: As high pressure continues to build in
the region of the weekend, warm and sunny conditions are expected
with highs upper 70s to mid 80s. This will begin to change early
next week as upper level northwest flow will bring in cooler
temperatures and chance of showers to extreme Eastern WA and ID
Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the low 70s to low
80s. /fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Southerly flow sandwiched between high pressure to the
east and an approaching trough will allow mid and high clouds to
stream into the Central WA Cascades today then Ern WA and N ID Wed.
Combined with afternoon instability...there is a modest chance for
showers and thunderstorms 22-04Z along the Cascade Crest. Spotty
light elevated showers will continue over the Cascades and slowly
expand between KEAT/KOMK 12-18Z but given the dry subcloud layer,
main impacts through 18Z in this area will be incr ceilings 8-10K ft
AGL and spotty sprinkles.
/tc



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  79  55  70  52  76 /   0  10  50  60  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  49  79  51  71  49  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Pullman        48  77  50  68  48  74 /   0  10  40  50  30  20
Lewiston       52  83  55  73  52  79 /   0  10  40  40  40  30
Colville       46  80  48  72  45  79 /   0  40  40  60  30  20
Sandpoint      44  78  48  69  45  72 /   0  20  40  60  30  20
Kellogg        45  80  46  72  44  72 /   0  10  30  50  40  40
Moses Lake     55  80  52  74  49  81 /  10  20  50  50  20  10
Wenatchee      56  77  55  72  53  81 /  20  30  50  40  20  10
Omak           52  78  53  71  48  80 /  10  20  50  60  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 031821
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1115 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to shift east today. Expect one more day
of warm and dry conditions today. By late today and lasting until
Friday a slow moving weather disturbance will move through the
region. This will result in a cooler, unsettled pattern with a
good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain
by Wednesday and Thursday. Improving conditions will begin again
late on Friday, lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for Aviation discussion. Previous discussion is still valid.
At this point convection looks to start late this afternoon over the
south Washington Cascade crest moving north into the early evening.
Overnight another band of showers in the same area moves along the
crest fairly rapidly. Some lightnings strikes will be possible in
these showers over night. Elsewhere it will remain fairly quiet
until later Wednesday when chances of showers and thunder increase
especially in the higher terrain.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK...FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT BURN SCARS POSSIBLE

Today through Wednesday: The weather pattern over the Inland NW will
gradually become more active as the dome of high pressure
continues to slide into central MT and southerly flow draws a rich
moisture plume into the region. The moisture will arrive along the
Cascade Crest today then begin to spread into Ern WA and N ID on
Wednesday. Consequently, the threat for showers and thunderstorms
will follow suite. Temperatures will remain quite toasty for May
standards with afternoon highs 15-20 degrees above normal today
and only cooling a handful of degrees Wednesday. The threat of
thunderstorms and showers capable of moderate rainfall amounts
will be the main focus through this period with confidence levels
near to below average regarding the threat to burn scars.

* Thunderstorm Potential: The main focus for thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening will be along the Cascade Crest and points
  just slightly east. The combination of afternoon CAPE on the
  order of 400-800 J/kg and PWATS climbing near 0.70" does raise
  concern for cells capable of heavy downpours. Any storms that
  develop will track south to north around 20-25 mph so one storm
  will not pose as much of a threat but if several cells were
  track over the same area...this training effect could lead to
  hefty rainfall amounts. Prior to 8PM...the main forcing will
  come from converging terrain driven winds and this generally
  carries lower confidence. The threat for showers and storms will
  increase further into the evening hours as a 850-700mb frontal
  boundary arrives. The burn scar that will be most susceptible to
  heavier showers late afternoon and evening will be the Wolverine
  Complex impacting locations between Holden Village and Lucerne.

  The air mass will continue to slowly moisten
  across Ern WA and N ID on Wednesday but it looks like the region
  will lack a strong trigger to initiate afternoon convection.
  Just about every location across the CWA supports enough
  afternoon instability to support a thunderstorm but whether
  parcels can break through the CIN layer and develop into
  thunderstorms is highly uncertain. The main threat for any
  storms will come in the afternoon following spotty light showers
  in the morning and attm, there is loose agreement that the
  northern mountains and Cascade Crest will carry the highest
  chances. A much better opportunity arrives with a wave
  approaching from the south Wednesday night. /sb

Wednesday night through Monday...This period will consist of a wet
showery period Wednesday night and Thursday followed by a drying
trend Friday through Sunday...with a possible breezy dry cold
front by next Monday.

The stormy period will be compliments of a moist southerly flow
visible on satellite as a deep fetch of Pacific moisture moving up
ahead of a highly meridional trough just off the coast this
morning. By Wednesday evening models are in good agreement in
depicting this deep moisture feed laying along the Cascades with
very slow movement eastward as the parent trough keeps
digging...eventually pinching off into a lazy and broad closed low
over California. A surface thermal trough will set up over the
Columbia Basin on Tuesday and Wednesday. This moisture and low
level heating will lead to an unstable air mass. Triggering
mechanisms besides orography will be provided by a weak wave
transiting up out of Oregon Wednesday night and pulling the
moisture axis eastward across the forecast area on Thursday...into
the surface thermal trough. All of this adds up to a very showery
and potentially thundery pattern Wednesday evening through Thursday
for just about the entire forecast area. The Major evolving
concern will be the potential for debris flows and flash floods on
recent burn scars in the Cascades and Okanogan area. This
potential will be closely monitored and further analyzed through
the next 24 to 36 hours for the possibility of issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for these areas.

A cooling trend will begin from west to east with the passage of
this system...with Wednesday and Thursday`s high temperatures
probably still above normal but moderated off of the peak
temperatures of Tuesday.

After Thursday a drying trend will commence...still with some
lingering minor showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm on Friday
concentrated over mountains and the southeastern zones...as a
flop-over upper ridge noses into the region over the low pressure
far to the south. This will keep the forecast area in a quiet
weather zone but with breezy north to northeast winds ushering in
some dry Canadian continental air through the Okanogan Valley and
Purcell Trench Friday and Saturday. Temperatures in this dry air
mass under clearing skies will begin to march upward again for the
weekend cresting once again around 10 degrees above normal.

Far in the extended forecast models are more ambiguous but seem to
be hinting at a dry cold front passage on or about Monday as the
polar storm track dips south and flattens the upper ridge. In
addition to breezy conditions...this time out of the
west/northwest...temperatures should moderate back toward normal
for the start of the new work week. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Southerly flow sandwiched between high pressure to the
east and an approaching trough will allow mid and high clouds to
stream into the Central WA Cascades today then Ern WA and N ID Wed.
Combined with afternoon instability...there is a modest chance for
showers and thunderstorms 22-04Z along the Cascade Crest. Spotty
light elevated showers will continue over the Cascades and slowly
expand between KEAT/KOMK 12-18Z but given the dry subcloud layer,
main impacts through 18Z in this area will be incr ceilings 8-10K ft
AGL and spotty sprinkles.
/tc


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  54  78  55  68  50 /   0   0  20  50  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  82  49  78  52  69  49 /   0   0  20  50  60  30
Pullman        79  49  76  51  67  47 /   0   0  20  50  50  40
Lewiston       85  53  82  56  72  51 /   0  10  20  50  50  40
Colville       87  45  79  49  70  45 /   0   0  30  50  70  30
Sandpoint      79  44  77  48  70  44 /   0   0  20  40  60  30
Kellogg        80  45  79  46  69  44 /   0   0  20  40  50  50
Moses Lake     85  53  79  53  72  47 /   0  10  20  50  50  20
Wenatchee      83  56  76  55  70  52 /  10  20  30  60  50  20
Omak           84  53  77  54  69  48 /   0  20  40  60  60  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities