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000
FXUS66 KOTX 250536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The area stratus and fog remain problematic in the
aviation forecasts for the next 24 hours with the ridge of high
pressure in place and abundant low level moisture lingering. Any
improvements are expected to be short lived except for locations
south of KGEG which would include KPUW and KLWS as  low level
east winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains are helping to
inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 250536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The area stratus and fog remain problematic in the
aviation forecasts for the next 24 hours with the ridge of high
pressure in place and abundant low level moisture lingering. Any
improvements are expected to be short lived except for locations
south of KGEG which would include KPUW and KLWS as  low level
east winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains are helping to
inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 250250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
649 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds tomorrow...otherwise
elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of low stratus/fog
overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 250250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
649 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds tomorrow...otherwise
elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of low stratus/fog
overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 250217
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
616 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more detail to the fog, some
locally dense, occurring over a number of lowland locations across
Northeast Washington and parts of North Idaho this evening. The
fog is expected to linger overnight and into a good portion of
tomorrow as high pressure remains in place and abundant low level
moisture lingers in the region. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 250217
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
616 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more detail to the fog, some
locally dense, occurring over a number of lowland locations across
Northeast Washington and parts of North Idaho this evening. The
fog is expected to linger overnight and into a good portion of
tomorrow as high pressure remains in place and abundant low level
moisture lingers in the region. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 242328
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 242328
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 242243
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 242243
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 241804
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to keep patchy fog in portions of the basin, West
Plains and some of the northern valleys for a few more hours as
area webcams and surface observations show some stubborn areas
where fog is not lifting into a stratus layer. Narrow bands of
rain are sliding southeast from the Spokane area, across Benewah
County and into southwest Shoshone County. A weak shortwave
impulse will move through the resident upper level ridge today.
This, along with a decent amount of isentropic ascent will keep
the mention of rain and high mountain snow in the forecast today.
Easterly downsloping winds should keep the southeast zones out of
the fog and low stratus today. Max temps have been increased over
the Lewis-Clark Valley, Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts. Strong warm
air advection and downsloping winds off the Blues has allowed
portions of the L-C Valley to warm into the mid 50s already this
morning. We could see a few locations approach record high temps
if there is enough mixing and breaks in the clouds. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  40  47  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       40  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      44  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        42  37  47  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     46  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      44  37  45  34  39  35 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           39  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241804
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to keep patchy fog in portions of the basin, West
Plains and some of the northern valleys for a few more hours as
area webcams and surface observations show some stubborn areas
where fog is not lifting into a stratus layer. Narrow bands of
rain are sliding southeast from the Spokane area, across Benewah
County and into southwest Shoshone County. A weak shortwave
impulse will move through the resident upper level ridge today.
This, along with a decent amount of isentropic ascent will keep
the mention of rain and high mountain snow in the forecast today.
Easterly downsloping winds should keep the southeast zones out of
the fog and low stratus today. Max temps have been increased over
the Lewis-Clark Valley, Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts. Strong warm
air advection and downsloping winds off the Blues has allowed
portions of the L-C Valley to warm into the mid 50s already this
morning. We could see a few locations approach record high temps
if there is enough mixing and breaks in the clouds. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  40  47  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       40  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      44  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        42  37  47  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     46  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      44  37  45  34  39  35 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           39  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 241227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for all
TAF sites, especially KMWH and KEAT, and also the Spokane area
TAF sites. Light rain or drizzle from the low clouds remain in the
fcst for the Spokane area TAFs this morning before prolonged light
rain by midday tries to scatter out these mainly IFR decks. KPUW
and KLWS should have enough warm flow from the east that they rid
themselves of the low clouds and fog this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       43 40 47 33 47 33 / 60 10  0  0  0  0
Coeur d`Alene 43 40 47 35 50 33 / 70 20  0  0  0  0
Pullman       52 39 54 36 55 36 / 50 10  0  0  0  0
Lewiston      53 38 57 37 58 37 / 30  0  0  0  0  0
Colville      40 35 39 34 40 33 / 50 20  0  0  0 10
Sandpoint     44 37 45 34 46 32 / 90 40 10 10  0  0
Kellogg       40 37 47 38 51 36 / 90 50 10  0  0  0
Moses Lake    46 36 46 35 44 34 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Wenatchee     44 37 45 34 39 35 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Omak          39 34 41 32 37 32 / 20 10  0  0  0 10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 241227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for all
TAF sites, especially KMWH and KEAT, and also the Spokane area
TAF sites. Light rain or drizzle from the low clouds remain in the
fcst for the Spokane area TAFs this morning before prolonged light
rain by midday tries to scatter out these mainly IFR decks. KPUW
and KLWS should have enough warm flow from the east that they rid
themselves of the low clouds and fog this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       43 40 47 33 47 33 / 60 10  0  0  0  0
Coeur d`Alene 43 40 47 35 50 33 / 70 20  0  0  0  0
Pullman       52 39 54 36 55 36 / 50 10  0  0  0  0
Lewiston      53 38 57 37 58 37 / 30  0  0  0  0  0
Colville      40 35 39 34 40 33 / 50 20  0  0  0 10
Sandpoint     44 37 45 34 46 32 / 90 40 10 10  0  0
Kellogg       40 37 47 38 51 36 / 90 50 10  0  0  0
Moses Lake    46 36 46 35 44 34 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Wenatchee     44 37 45 34 39 35 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Omak          39 34 41 32 37 32 / 20 10  0  0  0 10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241051
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  40  48  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       38  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      39  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        40  37  49  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     49  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  37  46  34  39  35 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 241051
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  40  48  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       38  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      39  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        40  37  49  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     49  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  37  46  34  39  35 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240527
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240527
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 240325
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
724 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 240325
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
724 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cancel the freezing rain advisory. Strong
westerly flow across the Cascades is creating a rain shadow
despite the dome of cooler air still in the Methow Valley and lee
of the Cascades. Calls to Winthrop and Waterville, locations which
are last to warm above freezing this evening, indicated no
precipitation fell from the initial push of subtropical moisture
and with westerly flow to increase overnight, felt the threat has
diminished significantly.  /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cancel the freezing rain advisory. Strong
westerly flow across the Cascades is creating a rain shadow
despite the dome of cooler air still in the Methow Valley and lee
of the Cascades. Calls to Winthrop and Waterville, locations which
are last to warm above freezing this evening, indicated no
precipitation fell from the initial push of subtropical moisture
and with westerly flow to increase overnight, felt the threat has
diminished significantly.  /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 232225
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: A challenging forecast for the next 12 hours as a steady
stream of subtropical moisture comes streaming across the
Cascades and brings another round of precipitation. The challenge:
subfreezing temperatures in some of the Cascade Valleys,
Waterville Plateau, and Northern Valleys and determining what form
this precipitation will fall at the surface. Second challenge
deals with the Cascade rain shadow. Strong westerly flow typically
means rain shadow in the lee of the Cascades...however with the
dome of cooler air in the lee of the Cascades, will this hold
strong and how long will it last to neglect the rain shadow.

First for the lower impacts: locations along and south of I-90 can
expect little to no impacts as rain will be the dominate
precipitation type from the surface to 5000 feet. There are two
minor exceptions; areas of fog could lead to reduced visibilities
by morning and secondly, any secondary roads that are still snow
packed from Thursday`s snow could become very slick. Based on
current temperatures, it looks as if rain will be the dominate
precip type through the Idaho Panhandle Valleys with snow levels
rising from the current 3500` to 6000` Saturday. Temperatures from
Bonners Ferry to Spokane to La Crosse and points east will not
drop much from current values as the air mass continues to warm
through the overnight periods.

Now for Central and Northern Washington: Most locations south of Lake
Chelan have warmed above freezing and have been removed from the
freezing rain advisory. The coolest temperatures of the region
remain in the Methow Valley where current readings (both ambient
temps and/or wetbulb temps remain 30-32F. With precipitation
falling or expected shortly, there is still a threat for freezing
rain but looks as if the current timing of the advisory ending at
5PM looks valid with temperatures likely to rise as more
precipitation falls. Any ice accumulations will be light and
generally under a tenth of an inch. Several localized pockets of
freezing rain will also be possible within any of the east to west
canyons off the Okanogan Valley and close to the Canadian Border
including Republic. Temperatures in these locations are also
hugging freezing with the potential to wetbulb near 30-32F as rain
starts to fall. Overall, with temperatures in these ranges, we do
not anticipate major problems from freezing rain, even if liquid
amounts were in excess of a tenth of an inch but with sunset
approaching and road temps at or below freezing along sections of
Hwy 20...there could be slick spots.

As for winds, mountain winds will start cranking this evening and
continue to increase overnight. The top of Mission Ridge at 6730
feet is already blowing 30G50mph. Gusts between 40-50 mph not out
the question for the Blue Mtns, Central Panhandle Mtns, and
Cascades. The valleys should remain decoupled except across
southeastern WA and areas of the lower ID Panhandle where winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph will be possible by early Saturday
morning. /sb

Saturday through Monday: The upper level ridge continues to push
into the Inland Northwest through the weekend. One more weak
weather disturbance moves over the ridge and through the area on
Saturday. This will produce rain for the Cascade crest as well as
areas mainly north and east of Spokane County. Light amounts are
expected, less than a tenth of an inch. The exception to this will
be in the mountains of north ID where a quarter of an inch of rain
is possible. Snow levels will be so high that snow will only be
experienced at the highest peaks. After the Saturday rain event we
start to dry out and by Sunday morning we will have a dry forecast
through the beginning of the work week. Models are in pretty good
agreement of very warm 850mb temperatures across the region. Lots
of things to consider before I get too excited putting well above
average temperatures into the forecast. There are some pretty good
850mb and 700mb winds Saturday through Sunday, but will that mix
down to the surface and warm us up? Right now I think not. But I
have increased mountain wind speeds and gusts for Saturday night
and Sunday across the Cascades and northern ID mountains, in
addition to our already gusty forecast Saturday. Another
consideration is the extent of fog for the weekend. Looking at
boundary layer RH values would think there is a pretty good chance
of fog across the northern valleys and down through the Waterville
Plateau and into the Moses Lake area. I think there is a lesser
chance of fog from the Ritzville area eastward. The Wenatchee
valley may intermittently be in and out of fog. The fog will play
a huge role in how warm we get. Where the fog exists, high temps
in the 30s at best. Where there is no fog, highs could be in the
mid 40s to around 60, depending on where you are. Even though
models don`t differ terribly btwn Sun and Mon for temperatures
think there is decent drying btwn Sun and Mon and Monday will be
the warmer day with less widespread fog. Even though there isn`t
much weather going on during this period of the forecast, lots of
different things to consider to create the best forecast. /Nisbet

Monday night through Friday...The large scale weather pattern for
the region will consist of an upper level ridge with a weak
frontal system rolling through the ridge during the mid week
period. Some light precipitation can be expected with this system,
mainly in the form of valley rain and high mountain snow. Snow
levels will start out quite high then fall with the passage of a
weak cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday but even with the frontal
passage, snow levels will still remain above valley floors. The
main weather concern will be the low stratus and fog that will
plague the lower elevations. The weak cold front will not be
enough to scrub the soup out of the basin but there may be enough
downsloping winds to clear the Cascade valleys as winds shift to
the west behind the front. Once the ridge rebounds, there may be
enough easterly gradient wind to keep the southeast valleys and
possibly the eastern Palouse out of the fog/stratus. Temperatures
will trend closer to normal with the passage of the cool front but
diurnal trends will depend on where persistent fog/stratus sets
up. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232225
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: A challenging forecast for the next 12 hours as a steady
stream of subtropical moisture comes streaming across the
Cascades and brings another round of precipitation. The challenge:
subfreezing temperatures in some of the Cascade Valleys,
Waterville Plateau, and Northern Valleys and determining what form
this precipitation will fall at the surface. Second challenge
deals with the Cascade rain shadow. Strong westerly flow typically
means rain shadow in the lee of the Cascades...however with the
dome of cooler air in the lee of the Cascades, will this hold
strong and how long will it last to neglect the rain shadow.

First for the lower impacts: locations along and south of I-90 can
expect little to no impacts as rain will be the dominate
precipitation type from the surface to 5000 feet. There are two
minor exceptions; areas of fog could lead to reduced visibilities
by morning and secondly, any secondary roads that are still snow
packed from Thursday`s snow could become very slick. Based on
current temperatures, it looks as if rain will be the dominate
precip type through the Idaho Panhandle Valleys with snow levels
rising from the current 3500` to 6000` Saturday. Temperatures from
Bonners Ferry to Spokane to La Crosse and points east will not
drop much from current values as the air mass continues to warm
through the overnight periods.

Now for Central and Northern Washington: Most locations south of Lake
Chelan have warmed above freezing and have been removed from the
freezing rain advisory. The coolest temperatures of the region
remain in the Methow Valley where current readings (both ambient
temps and/or wetbulb temps remain 30-32F. With precipitation
falling or expected shortly, there is still a threat for freezing
rain but looks as if the current timing of the advisory ending at
5PM looks valid with temperatures likely to rise as more
precipitation falls. Any ice accumulations will be light and
generally under a tenth of an inch. Several localized pockets of
freezing rain will also be possible within any of the east to west
canyons off the Okanogan Valley and close to the Canadian Border
including Republic. Temperatures in these locations are also
hugging freezing with the potential to wetbulb near 30-32F as rain
starts to fall. Overall, with temperatures in these ranges, we do
not anticipate major problems from freezing rain, even if liquid
amounts were in excess of a tenth of an inch but with sunset
approaching and road temps at or below freezing along sections of
Hwy 20...there could be slick spots.

As for winds, mountain winds will start cranking this evening and
continue to increase overnight. The top of Mission Ridge at 6730
feet is already blowing 30G50mph. Gusts between 40-50 mph not out
the question for the Blue Mtns, Central Panhandle Mtns, and
Cascades. The valleys should remain decoupled except across
southeastern WA and areas of the lower ID Panhandle where winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph will be possible by early Saturday
morning. /sb

Saturday through Monday: The upper level ridge continues to push
into the Inland Northwest through the weekend. One more weak
weather disturbance moves over the ridge and through the area on
Saturday. This will produce rain for the Cascade crest as well as
areas mainly north and east of Spokane County. Light amounts are
expected, less than a tenth of an inch. The exception to this will
be in the mountains of north ID where a quarter of an inch of rain
is possible. Snow levels will be so high that snow will only be
experienced at the highest peaks. After the Saturday rain event we
start to dry out and by Sunday morning we will have a dry forecast
through the beginning of the work week. Models are in pretty good
agreement of very warm 850mb temperatures across the region. Lots
of things to consider before I get too excited putting well above
average temperatures into the forecast. There are some pretty good
850mb and 700mb winds Saturday through Sunday, but will that mix
down to the surface and warm us up? Right now I think not. But I
have increased mountain wind speeds and gusts for Saturday night
and Sunday across the Cascades and northern ID mountains, in
addition to our already gusty forecast Saturday. Another
consideration is the extent of fog for the weekend. Looking at
boundary layer RH values would think there is a pretty good chance
of fog across the northern valleys and down through the Waterville
Plateau and into the Moses Lake area. I think there is a lesser
chance of fog from the Ritzville area eastward. The Wenatchee
valley may intermittently be in and out of fog. The fog will play
a huge role in how warm we get. Where the fog exists, high temps
in the 30s at best. Where there is no fog, highs could be in the
mid 40s to around 60, depending on where you are. Even though
models don`t differ terribly btwn Sun and Mon for temperatures
think there is decent drying btwn Sun and Mon and Monday will be
the warmer day with less widespread fog. Even though there isn`t
much weather going on during this period of the forecast, lots of
different things to consider to create the best forecast. /Nisbet

Monday night through Friday...The large scale weather pattern for
the region will consist of an upper level ridge with a weak
frontal system rolling through the ridge during the mid week
period. Some light precipitation can be expected with this system,
mainly in the form of valley rain and high mountain snow. Snow
levels will start out quite high then fall with the passage of a
weak cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday but even with the frontal
passage, snow levels will still remain above valley floors. The
main weather concern will be the low stratus and fog that will
plague the lower elevations. The weak cold front will not be
enough to scrub the soup out of the basin but there may be enough
downsloping winds to clear the Cascade valleys as winds shift to
the west behind the front. Once the ridge rebounds, there may be
enough easterly gradient wind to keep the southeast valleys and
possibly the eastern Palouse out of the fog/stratus. Temperatures
will trend closer to normal with the passage of the cool front but
diurnal trends will depend on where persistent fog/stratus sets
up. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have issued a freezing rain advisory for the
East Slopes of the Cascades. While the main slug of moisture and
steadier precipitation is just arriving to the WA Coast, spotty
light showers associated with a decaying upper-level wave is
tracking across the Cascades. Several reports of light freezing
rain are now trickling in from Lake Wenatchee and Plain. Ice
accumulations have been light but still leading to slick
conditions.

Looks as if the threat is over for the Wenatchee River Valley
between Peshastin and Wenatchee which have warmed 33-34F. Lake
Wenatchee and Lake Chelan Areas will be next with temperatures
hovering 30-32F. What worries me most is the Methow Valley which
is currently in the 20s. Ice accumulations could be closer to a
tenth or slightly more if these temperatures do not moderate over
the next few hours before the next slug of moisture arrives after
noon today. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have issued a freezing rain advisory for the
East Slopes of the Cascades. While the main slug of moisture and
steadier precipitation is just arriving to the WA Coast, spotty
light showers associated with a decaying upper-level wave is
tracking across the Cascades. Several reports of light freezing
rain are now trickling in from Lake Wenatchee and Plain. Ice
accumulations have been light but still leading to slick
conditions.

Looks as if the threat is over for the Wenatchee River Valley
between Peshastin and Wenatchee which have warmed 33-34F. Lake
Wenatchee and Lake Chelan Areas will be next with temperatures
hovering 30-32F. What worries me most is the Methow Valley which
is currently in the 20s. Ice accumulations could be closer to a
tenth or slightly more if these temperatures do not moderate over
the next few hours before the next slug of moisture arrives after
noon today. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231628
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
828 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have issued a freezing rain advisory for the
East Slopes of the Cascades. While the main slug of moisture and
steadier precipitation is just arriving to the WA Coast, spotty
light showers associated with a decaying upper-level wave is
tracking across the Cascades. Several reports of light freezing
rain are now trickling in from Lake Wenatchee and Plain. Ice
accumulations have been light but still leading to slick
conditions.

Looks as if the threat is over for the Wenatchee River Valley
between Peshastin and Wenatchee which have warmed 33-34F. Lake
Wenatchee and Lake Chelan Areas will be next with temperatures
hovering 30-32F. What worries me most is the Methow Valley which
is currently in the 20s. Ice accumulations could be closer to a
tenth or slightly more if these temperatures do not moderate over
the next few hours before the next slug of moisture arrives after
noon today. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Precipitation from yesterday was again able to recharge
the boundary layer with moisture and with light winds fog/stratus
quickly built back into the region this morning. Expect
conditions to vary through the morning for the KCOE-KGEG corridor
with IFR/LIFR all the way the MVFR at times this morning. For
KPUW/KLWS VFR/MVFR conditions can be expected and for KMWH/KEAT
MVFR/IFR. The next storm system will begin to spread precipitation
into the area late this morning then not reaching the eastern TAF
sites until around 00z or shortly after. Most TAF sites will see
mainly rain, but some snow may be possible at the outset for
KGEG/KCOE/KPUW. There is some chance for freezing precipitation
around KEAT valley. Currently temps at KEAT are 34/32 and temps
should warm slightly before the precipitation begins. So if there
is freezing rain it would be brief and very light. As far as
cigs/vsby expect some fluctuations but not much change for any of
the TAF sites. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231628
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
828 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have issued a freezing rain advisory for the
East Slopes of the Cascades. While the main slug of moisture and
steadier precipitation is just arriving to the WA Coast, spotty
light showers associated with a decaying upper-level wave is
tracking across the Cascades. Several reports of light freezing
rain are now trickling in from Lake Wenatchee and Plain. Ice
accumulations have been light but still leading to slick
conditions.

Looks as if the threat is over for the Wenatchee River Valley
between Peshastin and Wenatchee which have warmed 33-34F. Lake
Wenatchee and Lake Chelan Areas will be next with temperatures
hovering 30-32F. What worries me most is the Methow Valley which
is currently in the 20s. Ice accumulations could be closer to a
tenth or slightly more if these temperatures do not moderate over
the next few hours before the next slug of moisture arrives after
noon today. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Precipitation from yesterday was again able to recharge
the boundary layer with moisture and with light winds fog/stratus
quickly built back into the region this morning. Expect
conditions to vary through the morning for the KCOE-KGEG corridor
with IFR/LIFR all the way the MVFR at times this morning. For
KPUW/KLWS VFR/MVFR conditions can be expected and for KMWH/KEAT
MVFR/IFR. The next storm system will begin to spread precipitation
into the area late this morning then not reaching the eastern TAF
sites until around 00z or shortly after. Most TAF sites will see
mainly rain, but some snow may be possible at the outset for
KGEG/KCOE/KPUW. There is some chance for freezing precipitation
around KEAT valley. Currently temps at KEAT are 34/32 and temps
should warm slightly before the precipitation begins. So if there
is freezing rain it would be brief and very light. As far as
cigs/vsby expect some fluctuations but not much change for any of
the TAF sites. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231228
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
428 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...The upper level pattern has not changed
much over the past 24 hours with a flat ridge of high pressure
over the region...with almost zonal flow. The next weak wave is
moving towards the coast at the time and is expected to move
thro0ugh the Inland northwest late this morning. This wave has
tapped into much deeper moisture with PWAT`s expected to be well
over 200 percent of normal by this afternoon.

*Precipitation: This storm system will be wetter than the storm on
 Thursday. And just about all locations will see measurable
 precipitation beginning late this morning across the Cascades and
 pushing east through the afternoon and tonight for the eastern
 zones. By late tonight and Saturday the flow will become
 westerly. So high pops will be kept in the forecast for the crest
 of the Cascades and the up-sloping favorable areas of the Idaho
 Panhandle...otherwise expect a drying trend. For locations
 outside of the mountains amounts will be mainly less than .10.
 Up-sloping flow into the hills along the WA/ID border may bump
 that amount up to about to .20. For the mountains anywhere from
 .20 to .50 and .50 to .80 near the crest of the Cascades. By
 tonight

*Precipitation type: This is a little more tricky. Some clearing
 skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop into the high 20s to
 lower 30s for the valleys of the east slopes. With mainly low 30s
 for the Waterville plateau...the Okanogan valley and along the
 Columbia river near Wenatchee. Precipitation is not expected until
 late morning and temperatures should have a chance to moderate at
 least a little. While there will be a chance for some light
 freezing precipitation up near Leavenworth and Plain and for the
 Methow valley accumulations should be light. At this time we will
 handle this with Social media and not put out an advisory. For
 the remainder of the region snow levels will rise 5000-7000 feet
 and expect only light to moderate snow accumulations for the
 higher peaks.

*Temperatures: With the exception of some of our normal cool spots
 temperatures will rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s today and 40
 to lowers 50s on Saturday.

*Winds: Light east-southeast winds today will become south or
 southwest over night and increase to 5-15 mph. Winds on the
 ridges will become quite gusty tonight and Saturday with gust
 40-45 mph. Some mixing down to the surface will increase winds
 for the Basin...the Palouse and for the foothills of the Blue
 mountains where sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph
 are likely. Tobin

Sunday through Thursday: The longwave pressure pattern will change
little this week. Models continue to indicate a blocking pattern
remaining firmly in place over the Northwest. The ridge will
result in large scale subsidence over the region. Low to mid
level temperatures will remain warm through Tuesday with 850 mb
temps between 10-14 Celsius across the region. This will set up
strong low level inversions with fog and low clouds likely to
develop, especially across the northern and western basin and in
the mountain valleys. Although we will see abnormally warm
temperatures aloft, it is tough to tell how much the valleys will
actually feel the affects of this warm air intrusion. This will be
because winds are anticipated to remain light. This will in turn
hinder the potential for mechanical mixing, which is need this
time of year to draw down the warmer temperatures from aloft.

Models do indicate a weak southeasterly gradient setting up
Sunday and Monday across southeast WA and over the Camas Prairie.
This potentially would allow for any fog or stratus that develops
overnight to break up during the afternoon, and result in a
better chance for much warmer temperatures compared to the rest of
the region; this would include the Palouse and L-C Valley and could
also stretch further west into the Upper Columbia Basin. The
western portion of the basin, Cascade valleys and northern
mountain valleys will have a better chance of holding onto low
clouds and will not see as good of a chance for warming up during
the day. There is a good possibility that the mountains (above
about 3,000 feet) will see significantly warmer temperatures than
the valleys, especially for early next week.

A weak cold front is expected to push into the ridge around mid
week. The strong ridge in place looks to significantly weaken this
energy. There will be a chance for some light precip and the front
will result in some cooler temperatures with 850 mb temperatures
dropping back down to near 0 Celsius. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Precipitation from yesterday was again able to recharge
the boundary layer with moisture and with light winds fog/stratus
quickly built back into the region this morning. Expect
conditions to vary through the morning for the KCOE-KGEG corridor
with IFR/LIFR all the way the MVFR at times this morning. For
KPUW/KLWS VFR/MVFR conditions can be expected and for KMWH/KEAT
MVFR/IFR. The next storm system will begin to spread precipitationinto
the area late this morning then not reaching the eastern TAF sites
until around 00z or shortly after. Most TAF sites will see mainly
rain, but some snow may be possible at the outset for
KGEG/KCOE/KPUW. There is some chance for freezing precipitation
around KEAT valley. Currently temps at KEAT are 34/32 and temps
should warm slightly before the precipitation begins. So if there
is freezing rain it would be brief and very light. As far as
cigs/vsby expect some fluctuations but not much change for any of
the TAF sites. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231228
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
428 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...The upper level pattern has not changed
much over the past 24 hours with a flat ridge of high pressure
over the region...with almost zonal flow. The next weak wave is
moving towards the coast at the time and is expected to move
thro0ugh the Inland northwest late this morning. This wave has
tapped into much deeper moisture with PWAT`s expected to be well
over 200 percent of normal by this afternoon.

*Precipitation: This storm system will be wetter than the storm on
 Thursday. And just about all locations will see measurable
 precipitation beginning late this morning across the Cascades and
 pushing east through the afternoon and tonight for the eastern
 zones. By late tonight and Saturday the flow will become
 westerly. So high pops will be kept in the forecast for the crest
 of the Cascades and the up-sloping favorable areas of the Idaho
 Panhandle...otherwise expect a drying trend. For locations
 outside of the mountains amounts will be mainly less than .10.
 Up-sloping flow into the hills along the WA/ID border may bump
 that amount up to about to .20. For the mountains anywhere from
 .20 to .50 and .50 to .80 near the crest of the Cascades. By
 tonight

*Precipitation type: This is a little more tricky. Some clearing
 skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop into the high 20s to
 lower 30s for the valleys of the east slopes. With mainly low 30s
 for the Waterville plateau...the Okanogan valley and along the
 Columbia river near Wenatchee. Precipitation is not expected until
 late morning and temperatures should have a chance to moderate at
 least a little. While there will be a chance for some light
 freezing precipitation up near Leavenworth and Plain and for the
 Methow valley accumulations should be light. At this time we will
 handle this with Social media and not put out an advisory. For
 the remainder of the region snow levels will rise 5000-7000 feet
 and expect only light to moderate snow accumulations for the
 higher peaks.

*Temperatures: With the exception of some of our normal cool spots
 temperatures will rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s today and 40
 to lowers 50s on Saturday.

*Winds: Light east-southeast winds today will become south or
 southwest over night and increase to 5-15 mph. Winds on the
 ridges will become quite gusty tonight and Saturday with gust
 40-45 mph. Some mixing down to the surface will increase winds
 for the Basin...the Palouse and for the foothills of the Blue
 mountains where sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph
 are likely. Tobin

Sunday through Thursday: The longwave pressure pattern will change
little this week. Models continue to indicate a blocking pattern
remaining firmly in place over the Northwest. The ridge will
result in large scale subsidence over the region. Low to mid
level temperatures will remain warm through Tuesday with 850 mb
temps between 10-14 Celsius across the region. This will set up
strong low level inversions with fog and low clouds likely to
develop, especially across the northern and western basin and in
the mountain valleys. Although we will see abnormally warm
temperatures aloft, it is tough to tell how much the valleys will
actually feel the affects of this warm air intrusion. This will be
because winds are anticipated to remain light. This will in turn
hinder the potential for mechanical mixing, which is need this
time of year to draw down the warmer temperatures from aloft.

Models do indicate a weak southeasterly gradient setting up
Sunday and Monday across southeast WA and over the Camas Prairie.
This potentially would allow for any fog or stratus that develops
overnight to break up during the afternoon, and result in a
better chance for much warmer temperatures compared to the rest of
the region; this would include the Palouse and L-C Valley and could
also stretch further west into the Upper Columbia Basin. The
western portion of the basin, Cascade valleys and northern
mountain valleys will have a better chance of holding onto low
clouds and will not see as good of a chance for warming up during
the day. There is a good possibility that the mountains (above
about 3,000 feet) will see significantly warmer temperatures than
the valleys, especially for early next week.

A weak cold front is expected to push into the ridge around mid
week. The strong ridge in place looks to significantly weaken this
energy. There will be a chance for some light precip and the front
will result in some cooler temperatures with 850 mb temperatures
dropping back down to near 0 Celsius. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Precipitation from yesterday was again able to recharge
the boundary layer with moisture and with light winds fog/stratus
quickly built back into the region this morning. Expect
conditions to vary through the morning for the KCOE-KGEG corridor
with IFR/LIFR all the way the MVFR at times this morning. For
KPUW/KLWS VFR/MVFR conditions can be expected and for KMWH/KEAT
MVFR/IFR. The next storm system will begin to spread precipitationinto
the area late this morning then not reaching the eastern TAF sites
until around 00z or shortly after. Most TAF sites will see mainly
rain, but some snow may be possible at the outset for
KGEG/KCOE/KPUW. There is some chance for freezing precipitation
around KEAT valley. Currently temps at KEAT are 34/32 and temps
should warm slightly before the precipitation begins. So if there
is freezing rain it would be brief and very light. As far as
cigs/vsby expect some fluctuations but not much change for any of
the TAF sites. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
240 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...The upper level pattern has not changed
much over the past 24 hours with a flat ridge of high pressure
over the region...with almost zonal flow. The next weak wave is
moving towards the coast at the time and is expected to move
thro0ugh the Inland northwest late this morning. This wave has
tapped into much deeper moisture with PWAT`s expected to be well
over 200 percent of normal by this afternoon.

*Precipitation: This storm system will be wetter than the storm on
 Thursday. And just about all locations will see measurable
 precipitation beginning late this morning across the Cascades and
 pushing east through the afternoon and tonight for the eastern
 zones. By late tonight and Saturday the flow will become
 westerly. So high pops will be kept in the forecast for the crest
 of the Cascades and the up-sloping favorable areas of the Idaho
 Panhandle...otherwise expect a drying trend. For locations
 outside of the mountains amounts will be mainly less than .10.
 Up-sloping flow into the hills along the WA/ID border may bump
 that amount up to about to .20. For the mountains anywhere from
 .20 to .50 and .50 to .80 near the crest of the Cascades. By
 tonight

*Precipitation type: This is a little more tricky. Some clearing
 skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop into the high 20s to
 lower 30s for the valleys of the east slopes. With mainly low 30s
 for the Waterville plateau...the Okanogan valley and along the
 Columbia river near Wenatchee. Precipitation is not expected until
 late morning and temperatures should have a chance to moderate at
 least a little. While there will be a chance for some light
 freezing precipitation up near Leavenworth and Plain and for the
 Methow valley accumulations should be light. At this time we will
 handle this with Social media and not put out an advisory. For
 the remainder of the region snow levels will rise 5000-7000 feet
 and expect only light to moderate snow accumulations for the
 higher peaks.

*Temperatures: With the exception of some of our normal cool spots
 temperatures will rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s today and 40
 to lowers 50s on Saturday.

*Winds: Light east-southeast winds today will become south or
 southwest over night and increase to 5-15 mph. Winds on the
 ridges will become quite gusty tonight and Saturday with gust
 40-45 mph. Some mixing down to the surface will increase winds
 for the Basin...the Palouse and for the foothills of the Blue
 mountains where sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph
 are likely. Tobin

Sunday through Thursday: The longwave pressure pattern will change
little this week. Models continue to indicate a blocking pattern
remaining firmly in place over the Northwest. The ridge will
result in large scale subsidence over the region. Low to mid
level temperatures will remain warm through Tuesday with 850 mb
temps between 10-14 Celsius across the region. This will set up
strong low level inversions with fog and low clouds likely to
develop, especially across the northern and western basin and in
the mountain valleys. Although we will see abnormally warm
temperatures aloft, it is tough to tell how much the valleys will
actually feel the affects of this warm air intrusion. This will be
because winds are anticipated to remain light. This will in turn
hinder the potential for mechanical mixing, which is need this
time of year to draw down the warmer temperatures from aloft.

Models do indicate a weak southeasterly gradient setting up
Sunday and Monday across southeast WA and over the Camas Prairie.
This potentially would allow for any fog or stratus that develops
overnight to break up during the afternoon, and result in a
better chance for much warmer temperatures compared to the rest of
the region; this would include the Palouse and L-C Valley and could
also stretch further west into the Upper Columbia Basin. The
western portion of the basin, Cascade valleys and northern
mountain valleys will have a better chance of holding onto low
clouds and will not see as good of a chance for warming up during
the day. There is a good possibility that the mountains (above
about 3,000 feet) will see significantly warmer temperatures than
the valleys, especially for early next week.

A weak cold front is expected to push into the ridge around mid
week. The strong ridge in place looks to significantly weaken this
energy. There will be a chance for some light precip and the front
will result in some cooler temperatures with 850 mb temperatures
dropping back down to near 0 Celsius. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: One system exits tonight and another spreads in Friday
into Friday evening. Tonight into Friday AM look for continued
IFR/MVFR cigs/vis with some potential for some flurries or
drizzle, or the stray snow showers. The threat of precipitation
will be reinvigorated between late Friday morning and Friday
evening, from west to east. Around most areas the predominant
precip-type is expected to be rain, but some snow may be mixed in
around GEG to COE and PUW, especially at the start of precip.
There is also a concern for freezing rain, including around EAT,
especially if the precipitation starts earlier in the day before
temperatures warm. If precipitation falls here before 22Z then
some freezing rain may be mixed in. Look for continued IFR/MVFR
conditions. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
240 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move into the region this morning.
This storm will be wetter and will deliver mountain snow and
valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected
next week as high pressure builds back in over the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...The upper level pattern has not changed
much over the past 24 hours with a flat ridge of high pressure
over the region...with almost zonal flow. The next weak wave is
moving towards the coast at the time and is expected to move
thro0ugh the Inland northwest late this morning. This wave has
tapped into much deeper moisture with PWAT`s expected to be well
over 200 percent of normal by this afternoon.

*Precipitation: This storm system will be wetter than the storm on
 Thursday. And just about all locations will see measurable
 precipitation beginning late this morning across the Cascades and
 pushing east through the afternoon and tonight for the eastern
 zones. By late tonight and Saturday the flow will become
 westerly. So high pops will be kept in the forecast for the crest
 of the Cascades and the up-sloping favorable areas of the Idaho
 Panhandle...otherwise expect a drying trend. For locations
 outside of the mountains amounts will be mainly less than .10.
 Up-sloping flow into the hills along the WA/ID border may bump
 that amount up to about to .20. For the mountains anywhere from
 .20 to .50 and .50 to .80 near the crest of the Cascades. By
 tonight

*Precipitation type: This is a little more tricky. Some clearing
 skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop into the high 20s to
 lower 30s for the valleys of the east slopes. With mainly low 30s
 for the Waterville plateau...the Okanogan valley and along the
 Columbia river near Wenatchee. Precipitation is not expected until
 late morning and temperatures should have a chance to moderate at
 least a little. While there will be a chance for some light
 freezing precipitation up near Leavenworth and Plain and for the
 Methow valley accumulations should be light. At this time we will
 handle this with Social media and not put out an advisory. For
 the remainder of the region snow levels will rise 5000-7000 feet
 and expect only light to moderate snow accumulations for the
 higher peaks.

*Temperatures: With the exception of some of our normal cool spots
 temperatures will rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s today and 40
 to lowers 50s on Saturday.

*Winds: Light east-southeast winds today will become south or
 southwest over night and increase to 5-15 mph. Winds on the
 ridges will become quite gusty tonight and Saturday with gust
 40-45 mph. Some mixing down to the surface will increase winds
 for the Basin...the Palouse and for the foothills of the Blue
 mountains where sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph
 are likely. Tobin

Sunday through Thursday: The longwave pressure pattern will change
little this week. Models continue to indicate a blocking pattern
remaining firmly in place over the Northwest. The ridge will
result in large scale subsidence over the region. Low to mid
level temperatures will remain warm through Tuesday with 850 mb
temps between 10-14 Celsius across the region. This will set up
strong low level inversions with fog and low clouds likely to
develop, especially across the northern and western basin and in
the mountain valleys. Although we will see abnormally warm
temperatures aloft, it is tough to tell how much the valleys will
actually feel the affects of this warm air intrusion. This will be
because winds are anticipated to remain light. This will in turn
hinder the potential for mechanical mixing, which is need this
time of year to draw down the warmer temperatures from aloft.

Models do indicate a weak southeasterly gradient setting up
Sunday and Monday across southeast WA and over the Camas Prairie.
This potentially would allow for any fog or stratus that develops
overnight to break up during the afternoon, and result in a
better chance for much warmer temperatures compared to the rest of
the region; this would include the Palouse and L-C Valley and could
also stretch further west into the Upper Columbia Basin. The
western portion of the basin, Cascade valleys and northern
mountain valleys will have a better chance of holding onto low
clouds and will not see as good of a chance for warming up during
the day. There is a good possibility that the mountains (above
about 3,000 feet) will see significantly warmer temperatures than
the valleys, especially for early next week.

A weak cold front is expected to push into the ridge around mid
week. The strong ridge in place looks to significantly weaken this
energy. There will be a chance for some light precip and the front
will result in some cooler temperatures with 850 mb temperatures
dropping back down to near 0 Celsius. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: One system exits tonight and another spreads in Friday
into Friday evening. Tonight into Friday AM look for continued
IFR/MVFR cigs/vis with some potential for some flurries or
drizzle, or the stray snow showers. The threat of precipitation
will be reinvigorated between late Friday morning and Friday
evening, from west to east. Around most areas the predominant
precip-type is expected to be rain, but some snow may be mixed in
around GEG to COE and PUW, especially at the start of precip.
There is also a concern for freezing rain, including around EAT,
especially if the precipitation starts earlier in the day before
temperatures warm. If precipitation falls here before 22Z then
some freezing rain may be mixed in. Look for continued IFR/MVFR
conditions. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  34  43  37  44  34 /  20  90  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  37  33  42  37  46  35 /  10  90  50  20  10  10
Pullman        43  40  51  40  50  37 /  10  60  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       48  42  53  40  52  39 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Colville       34  32  39  35  39  33 /  40  90  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      36  32  42  36  43  35 /  20  90  70  30  10  10
Kellogg        37  36  41  35  45  36 /  10  90  60  30  10   0
Moses Lake     38  34  48  36  46  34 /  20  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      37  35  45  36  43  36 /  40  30  10  10   0  10
Omak           36  34  40  35  39  33 /  40  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 230553
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the main vort max responsible for the quick inch
or so of snow across some portions of the Inland NW continues to
track southeast into the Palouse, then onto southern Idaho
overnight, taking the brunt of the snow with it. The radar has
significantly quieted down as compared to just a couple hours ago.
A quick scan of the region shows average snowfall amounts ranged
from 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with isolated amounts higher or lower than
that range. Road temperatures are on the wane and with lingering
snow or snowmelt on the roads, this will continue to cause slick
spots on untreated and/or less traveled roads.

I updated the forecast to greatly reduce the precipitation threat
through the night. However with additional weaker impulses coming
in from the west tonight into early Friday morning and some
shallow isentropic ascent in the moist boundary layer, overtaken
by stratus and patchy fog, I cannot remove the threat of
precipitation entirely. With the lack of strong lift, however, the
amounts should be minor and may be only as flurries or drizzle.

The next storm is on track to spread into the region from the
Friday, and especially Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The
potential for freezing rain will remain in some of the sheltered
valleys, with the most probably area near in the sheltered valleys
near the Cascades, Okanogan Valley, Wenatchee area. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: One system exits tonight and another spreads in Friday
into Friday evening. Tonight into Friday AM look for continued
IFR/MVFR cigs/vis with some potential for some flurries or
drizzle, or the stray snow showers. The threat of precipitation
will be reinvigorated between late Friday morning and Friday
evening, from west to east. Around most areas the predominant
precip-type is expected to be rain, but some snow may be mixed in
around GEG to COE and PUW, especially at the start of precip.
There is also a concern for freezing rain, including around EAT,
especially if the precipitation starts earlier in the day before
temperatures warm. If precipitation falls here before 22Z then
some freezing rain may be mixed in. Look for continued IFR/MVFR
conditions. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  20  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  20  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  20  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  20  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  20  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  30  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  10  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230106
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: I`ve been tracking a mid-level circulation
coming east of the Cascades and moving southeast. A deformation
axis wrapped from the Blues to the Okanogan Highlands is focusing
some moisture around the leading edge of that circulation. This
coupling has been responsible for the swath of precipitation which
has been enveloping much of east-central and southeast Washington.
This circulation is well-defined on WV satellite. Forward projects
suggests its center will slide toward the Whitman/Benewah county
border region by 04Z (8 PM).So the broader precipitation threat
will be in advance of that time frame, at least east-central and
southeast WA. After that time frame into the overnight the broader
threat appears to translate into the Panhandle.

There are other impulses in the westerly flow that will keep the
threat of snow going over the Cascades, far eastern WA and north
ID throughout the night too, but these appear weaker and don`t
have the depth of moisture.

So an update was sent to increase POPs through the remainder of
the evening (through about 04Z or 8 PM) across the Spokane/C`dA
area southward into the Palouse, before the focus shifts east and
into the mountains later this evening and overnight. What may
linger overnight over the eastern third of WA and ID valleys
appears, at this point, looks more like a flurry or drizzle
threat.

Overall precipitation amounts from this main swath of
precipitation still look relatively light, but I did raise them
slightly from the previous forecast. Still this keeps snow amounts
generally less than a half inch and in place below 2000 feet, not
even that is expected.

With all this said, we will continue to monitor observations and
radar/satellite trends from any deviations from this thinking.
/J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak storm system will exit the region to the east
tonight. In the mean time the eastern TAF sites will experience
generally MVFR conditions with occasional rain/snow mix until
03-05Z with rain at the lowest elevation locations of KLWS. KEAT
and KMWH should be behind the precipitation shield but stubborn
IFR stratus will likely remain at KMWH through the evening. The
precipitation of the last 12 hours has added significant moisture
to the boundary layer and the low level inversion remains
entrenched over the region. This brings high confidence that most
TAF sites will see a return of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions in
stratus and fog by 12Z Friday. A second storm system will spread
precipitation over the region during Friday afternoon but this
rain may help break up the IFR stratus into MVFR ceilings. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  70  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  70  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 230106
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: I`ve been tracking a mid-level circulation
coming east of the Cascades and moving southeast. A deformation
axis wrapped from the Blues to the Okanogan Highlands is focusing
some moisture around the leading edge of that circulation. This
coupling has been responsible for the swath of precipitation which
has been enveloping much of east-central and southeast Washington.
This circulation is well-defined on WV satellite. Forward projects
suggests its center will slide toward the Whitman/Benewah county
border region by 04Z (8 PM).So the broader precipitation threat
will be in advance of that time frame, at least east-central and
southeast WA. After that time frame into the overnight the broader
threat appears to translate into the Panhandle.

There are other impulses in the westerly flow that will keep the
threat of snow going over the Cascades, far eastern WA and north
ID throughout the night too, but these appear weaker and don`t
have the depth of moisture.

So an update was sent to increase POPs through the remainder of
the evening (through about 04Z or 8 PM) across the Spokane/C`dA
area southward into the Palouse, before the focus shifts east and
into the mountains later this evening and overnight. What may
linger overnight over the eastern third of WA and ID valleys
appears, at this point, looks more like a flurry or drizzle
threat.

Overall precipitation amounts from this main swath of
precipitation still look relatively light, but I did raise them
slightly from the previous forecast. Still this keeps snow amounts
generally less than a half inch and in place below 2000 feet, not
even that is expected.

With all this said, we will continue to monitor observations and
radar/satellite trends from any deviations from this thinking.
/J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak storm system will exit the region to the east
tonight. In the mean time the eastern TAF sites will experience
generally MVFR conditions with occasional rain/snow mix until
03-05Z with rain at the lowest elevation locations of KLWS. KEAT
and KMWH should be behind the precipitation shield but stubborn
IFR stratus will likely remain at KMWH through the evening. The
precipitation of the last 12 hours has added significant moisture
to the boundary layer and the low level inversion remains
entrenched over the region. This brings high confidence that most
TAF sites will see a return of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions in
stratus and fog by 12Z Friday. A second storm system will spread
precipitation over the region during Friday afternoon but this
rain may help break up the IFR stratus into MVFR ceilings. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  70  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  70  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230106
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: I`ve been tracking a mid-level circulation
coming east of the Cascades and moving southeast. A deformation
axis wrapped from the Blues to the Okanogan Highlands is focusing
some moisture around the leading edge of that circulation. This
coupling has been responsible for the swath of precipitation which
has been enveloping much of east-central and southeast Washington.
This circulation is well-defined on WV satellite. Forward projects
suggests its center will slide toward the Whitman/Benewah county
border region by 04Z (8 PM).So the broader precipitation threat
will be in advance of that time frame, at least east-central and
southeast WA. After that time frame into the overnight the broader
threat appears to translate into the Panhandle.

There are other impulses in the westerly flow that will keep the
threat of snow going over the Cascades, far eastern WA and north
ID throughout the night too, but these appear weaker and don`t
have the depth of moisture.

So an update was sent to increase POPs through the remainder of
the evening (through about 04Z or 8 PM) across the Spokane/C`dA
area southward into the Palouse, before the focus shifts east and
into the mountains later this evening and overnight. What may
linger overnight over the eastern third of WA and ID valleys
appears, at this point, looks more like a flurry or drizzle
threat.

Overall precipitation amounts from this main swath of
precipitation still look relatively light, but I did raise them
slightly from the previous forecast. Still this keeps snow amounts
generally less than a half inch and in place below 2000 feet, not
even that is expected.

With all this said, we will continue to monitor observations and
radar/satellite trends from any deviations from this thinking.
/J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak storm system will exit the region to the east
tonight. In the mean time the eastern TAF sites will experience
generally MVFR conditions with occasional rain/snow mix until
03-05Z with rain at the lowest elevation locations of KLWS. KEAT
and KMWH should be behind the precipitation shield but stubborn
IFR stratus will likely remain at KMWH through the evening. The
precipitation of the last 12 hours has added significant moisture
to the boundary layer and the low level inversion remains
entrenched over the region. This brings high confidence that most
TAF sites will see a return of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions in
stratus and fog by 12Z Friday. A second storm system will spread
precipitation over the region during Friday afternoon but this
rain may help break up the IFR stratus into MVFR ceilings. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  70  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  70  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230106
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: I`ve been tracking a mid-level circulation
coming east of the Cascades and moving southeast. A deformation
axis wrapped from the Blues to the Okanogan Highlands is focusing
some moisture around the leading edge of that circulation. This
coupling has been responsible for the swath of precipitation which
has been enveloping much of east-central and southeast Washington.
This circulation is well-defined on WV satellite. Forward projects
suggests its center will slide toward the Whitman/Benewah county
border region by 04Z (8 PM).So the broader precipitation threat
will be in advance of that time frame, at least east-central and
southeast WA. After that time frame into the overnight the broader
threat appears to translate into the Panhandle.

There are other impulses in the westerly flow that will keep the
threat of snow going over the Cascades, far eastern WA and north
ID throughout the night too, but these appear weaker and don`t
have the depth of moisture.

So an update was sent to increase POPs through the remainder of
the evening (through about 04Z or 8 PM) across the Spokane/C`dA
area southward into the Palouse, before the focus shifts east and
into the mountains later this evening and overnight. What may
linger overnight over the eastern third of WA and ID valleys
appears, at this point, looks more like a flurry or drizzle
threat.

Overall precipitation amounts from this main swath of
precipitation still look relatively light, but I did raise them
slightly from the previous forecast. Still this keeps snow amounts
generally less than a half inch and in place below 2000 feet, not
even that is expected.

With all this said, we will continue to monitor observations and
radar/satellite trends from any deviations from this thinking.
/J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak storm system will exit the region to the east
tonight. In the mean time the eastern TAF sites will experience
generally MVFR conditions with occasional rain/snow mix until
03-05Z with rain at the lowest elevation locations of KLWS. KEAT
and KMWH should be behind the precipitation shield but stubborn
IFR stratus will likely remain at KMWH through the evening. The
precipitation of the last 12 hours has added significant moisture
to the boundary layer and the low level inversion remains
entrenched over the region. This brings high confidence that most
TAF sites will see a return of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions in
stratus and fog by 12Z Friday. A second storm system will spread
precipitation over the region during Friday afternoon but this
rain may help break up the IFR stratus into MVFR ceilings. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  70  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  70  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
346 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The current weak weather disturbance which is bringing
areas of very light snow and rain to much of the area will exit
to the east tonight. Late this afternoon and evening the eastern
third of the forecast area will still be under the precipitation
shield of this wave disturbance...and by late this evening only
residual showers will be found in the Idaho Panhandle mountains.
The rest of the forecast area will enter a break period
characterized by areas of low clouds and fog in the basin and
valleys. Today`s weak wave will do little to weaken the low level
inversion which has sat over the region for the last
week...however the precipitation falling into the boundary layer
today will serve to re-juice the low levels with more moisture
setting the stage for a continuation of murky deep winter
inversion weather. /Fugazzi

...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...

Friday through Saturday night: A flat ridge of high pressure will
be positioned over the region and a rich plume of subtropical
moisture will stream into the region delivering the next round of
precipitation. Models have come into better agreement in regards
to timing but still have subtle differences related to QPF
amounts. The good news is most of the QPF discrepancies are across
the eastern third of the CWA where precipitation will mainly be in
the form of rain and mountain snow/rain. For Central and Northern
Washington, the mild air mass coupled with pockets of sub-freezing
temperatures will bring the potential for a light wintry mix of
sleet and freezing rain. On a good note, the deepest moisture and
heaviest QPF arrive after 18z (10AM) tomorrow and this time of day
does not bode well for significant ice accumulations but until
temperatures warm above freezing, the threat for spotty wintry
precipitation will exist.

A quick examination of current surface temperatures also suggest
temperatures are warming near the freezing mark for most Cascade
Valleys, Wenatchee Area, Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley.
The question is whether these locations will experience any
clearing overnight allowing temperatures to radiate back into the
lower to mid 20s or will they remain nearly constant. If
temperatures drop, the threat for freezing rain will increase. If
they remain steady, it will be extremely tough to see any impacts
from wintry precipitation. This is where we turn our attention to
latest CAMS; the stratus and fog has been scrubbed out of the
Methow Valley and Leavenworth Area and is breaking up in the
Wenatchee Area. This will allow for partial clearing overnight but
the next cloud shield is already moving onto the coast which
suggest any clearing is likely to be short-lived. With this in
mind, ingredients are not lining up for significant ice
accumulations but will give the midnight crew one last look to
ensure winter highlights are not necessary. Meanwhile, we will
continue to mention the possibility for pockets of freezing rain
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, Wx Story, and Social Media. The
threat for any freezing rain will wane by early Saturday morning
and any precipitation Saturday (which will not be much given
40-50kts of westerly flow aloft) will fall in the form of rain.

For locations east of a line from Republic to Wenatchee, precipitation
will mainly fall as a combination of rain and snow...becoming all
rain. A local pocket of subfreezing air could bring brief freezing
rain to any of the valleys along the Canadian Border but generally
speaking, forecast soundings indicate a much more consolidate
warming between the surface and 4000 feet indicating precipitation
transitioning from snow to rain or just all rain. Snow levels will
start off roughly on valleys floors north and 5000 feet south
Friday morning and increase 5-8K ft (North-South) by Saturday
morning. Precipitation will slowly clear south to north through
the day on Saturday but most activity will focus in the northern
and eastern mountains.

Look for light winds Friday...becoming gusty in the mountain Friday
night and across the lower Basin, Foothills of the Blues, and
Palouse Saturday afternoon. Winds aloft within the 850-700mb layer
will increase between 35-50 kts indicating the potential gusts
along exposed ridgetops. For the aforementioned lowlands on
Saturday afternoon, winds will generally increase 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-40 mph. Locations that experience these winds like La
Crosse, Pomeroy, Lewiston, and Pullman could easily see
temperatures warm into the 50s. There is some uncertainty how far
west these winds expand in the Basin and if they do, many
locations could be warmer than forecast. The same goes without
saying for communities that see little to no wind and perhaps
remain under low clouds. /sb

Sunday through Thursday: Moving into next week we see a
significant decline in the weather activity level as another
strong ridge of high pressure builds in. As we have seen multiple
times in the recent past, the storm track will push well to our
north leading to a significant drying and warming trend for most.
Starting Sunday the only lingering chance for showers would be in
the mountains of the ID Panhandle as the weekend system continues
to exit east. Any precip will be in the form of rain showers as
snow levels remain between 7 and 8 thousand feet. The biggest
changes we will see for the first couple of days next week would
be the increase in fog and low clouds along with warming temps
especially in the higher elevations as warmer air advects in due
to the building ridge. Confidence through the early part of next
week is high that very little to no precipitation will fall Sunday
night through at least Tuesday. Where confidence levels fall off
the cliff would be the temperatures for the region. With areas of
persistent fog around the region, areas that remain in the fog/low
clouds will have a tough time seeing large diurnal swings whereas
other areas that clear out will have no problem seeing significant
warming during the day. Another question will be how warm the
mountains above the low level inversions will get. Both the euro
and GFS have 850mb temps near or above +11C or approx 52F near
Spokane with slightly cooler further north. Seeing temps at 850mb
is extremely rare and actually will approach record high levels if
they pan out. What all of this equates to is above normal
temperatures both daytime and night with highs in the upper 30s to
low 50s and lows above in the mid to upper 30s. With temps well
above normal and dewpoints above the freezing mark, we will likely
see a significant drop in the amount of snow that remains around
the area.

The stagnant and mild conditions look to continue through at least
late Tuesday before we start to see the ridge potentially flatten.
By this point we see more of a dirty ridge in place with some
remnant pieces of energy coming over the top and into the region.
With little to no organization with incoming pieces of energy, the
main impact would likely be scattered showers at the most. These
unorganized, but yet unsettled conditions persist through the
remainder of the period with the best chance for precip being in
the mountains. With snow levels still above most mountains, rain
showers will be the main precipitation type. Another big question
with the flattening of the ridge would be whether fog/stratus will
continue to remain in place. For this forecast I removed the
mention late Wednesday onward as I feel an increase of mid and
high clouds will bring an end to it. This will have to be fine
tuned as we approach allowing for a higher confidence forecast.
Temperatures continue to sit on the warm side of normal which is
bad news for any snow lovers out there. Mild and dry conditions
with areas of fog will likely be the main story for much of next
week leading to just another chapter in the lackluster winter we
have seen up to this point. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak storm system will exit the region to the east
tonight. In the mean time the eastern TAF sites will experience
generally MVFR conditions with occasional rain/snow mix until
03-05Z with rain at the lowest elevation locations of KLWS. KEAT
and KMWH should be behind the precipitation shield but stubborn
IFR stratus will likely remain at KMWH through the evening. The
precipitation of the last 12 hours has added significant moisture
to the boundary layer and the low level inversion remains
entrenched over the region. This brings high confidence that most
TAF sites will see a return of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions in
stratus and fog by 12Z Friday. A second storm system will spread
precipitation over the region during Friday afternoon but this
rain may help break up the IFR stratus into MVFR ceilings. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  50  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  60  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 222347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
346 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The current weak weather disturbance which is bringing
areas of very light snow and rain to much of the area will exit
to the east tonight. Late this afternoon and evening the eastern
third of the forecast area will still be under the precipitation
shield of this wave disturbance...and by late this evening only
residual showers will be found in the Idaho Panhandle mountains.
The rest of the forecast area will enter a break period
characterized by areas of low clouds and fog in the basin and
valleys. Today`s weak wave will do little to weaken the low level
inversion which has sat over the region for the last
week...however the precipitation falling into the boundary layer
today will serve to re-juice the low levels with more moisture
setting the stage for a continuation of murky deep winter
inversion weather. /Fugazzi

...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...

Friday through Saturday night: A flat ridge of high pressure will
be positioned over the region and a rich plume of subtropical
moisture will stream into the region delivering the next round of
precipitation. Models have come into better agreement in regards
to timing but still have subtle differences related to QPF
amounts. The good news is most of the QPF discrepancies are across
the eastern third of the CWA where precipitation will mainly be in
the form of rain and mountain snow/rain. For Central and Northern
Washington, the mild air mass coupled with pockets of sub-freezing
temperatures will bring the potential for a light wintry mix of
sleet and freezing rain. On a good note, the deepest moisture and
heaviest QPF arrive after 18z (10AM) tomorrow and this time of day
does not bode well for significant ice accumulations but until
temperatures warm above freezing, the threat for spotty wintry
precipitation will exist.

A quick examination of current surface temperatures also suggest
temperatures are warming near the freezing mark for most Cascade
Valleys, Wenatchee Area, Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley.
The question is whether these locations will experience any
clearing overnight allowing temperatures to radiate back into the
lower to mid 20s or will they remain nearly constant. If
temperatures drop, the threat for freezing rain will increase. If
they remain steady, it will be extremely tough to see any impacts
from wintry precipitation. This is where we turn our attention to
latest CAMS; the stratus and fog has been scrubbed out of the
Methow Valley and Leavenworth Area and is breaking up in the
Wenatchee Area. This will allow for partial clearing overnight but
the next cloud shield is already moving onto the coast which
suggest any clearing is likely to be short-lived. With this in
mind, ingredients are not lining up for significant ice
accumulations but will give the midnight crew one last look to
ensure winter highlights are not necessary. Meanwhile, we will
continue to mention the possibility for pockets of freezing rain
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, Wx Story, and Social Media. The
threat for any freezing rain will wane by early Saturday morning
and any precipitation Saturday (which will not be much given
40-50kts of westerly flow aloft) will fall in the form of rain.

For locations east of a line from Republic to Wenatchee, precipitation
will mainly fall as a combination of rain and snow...becoming all
rain. A local pocket of subfreezing air could bring brief freezing
rain to any of the valleys along the Canadian Border but generally
speaking, forecast soundings indicate a much more consolidate
warming between the surface and 4000 feet indicating precipitation
transitioning from snow to rain or just all rain. Snow levels will
start off roughly on valleys floors north and 5000 feet south
Friday morning and increase 5-8K ft (North-South) by Saturday
morning. Precipitation will slowly clear south to north through
the day on Saturday but most activity will focus in the northern
and eastern mountains.

Look for light winds Friday...becoming gusty in the mountain Friday
night and across the lower Basin, Foothills of the Blues, and
Palouse Saturday afternoon. Winds aloft within the 850-700mb layer
will increase between 35-50 kts indicating the potential gusts
along exposed ridgetops. For the aforementioned lowlands on
Saturday afternoon, winds will generally increase 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-40 mph. Locations that experience these winds like La
Crosse, Pomeroy, Lewiston, and Pullman could easily see
temperatures warm into the 50s. There is some uncertainty how far
west these winds expand in the Basin and if they do, many
locations could be warmer than forecast. The same goes without
saying for communities that see little to no wind and perhaps
remain under low clouds. /sb

Sunday through Thursday: Moving into next week we see a
significant decline in the weather activity level as another
strong ridge of high pressure builds in. As we have seen multiple
times in the recent past, the storm track will push well to our
north leading to a significant drying and warming trend for most.
Starting Sunday the only lingering chance for showers would be in
the mountains of the ID Panhandle as the weekend system continues
to exit east. Any precip will be in the form of rain showers as
snow levels remain between 7 and 8 thousand feet. The biggest
changes we will see for the first couple of days next week would
be the increase in fog and low clouds along with warming temps
especially in the higher elevations as warmer air advects in due
to the building ridge. Confidence through the early part of next
week is high that very little to no precipitation will fall Sunday
night through at least Tuesday. Where confidence levels fall off
the cliff would be the temperatures for the region. With areas of
persistent fog around the region, areas that remain in the fog/low
clouds will have a tough time seeing large diurnal swings whereas
other areas that clear out will have no problem seeing significant
warming during the day. Another question will be how warm the
mountains above the low level inversions will get. Both the euro
and GFS have 850mb temps near or above +11C or approx 52F near
Spokane with slightly cooler further north. Seeing temps at 850mb
is extremely rare and actually will approach record high levels if
they pan out. What all of this equates to is above normal
temperatures both daytime and night with highs in the upper 30s to
low 50s and lows above in the mid to upper 30s. With temps well
above normal and dewpoints above the freezing mark, we will likely
see a significant drop in the amount of snow that remains around
the area.

The stagnant and mild conditions look to continue through at least
late Tuesday before we start to see the ridge potentially flatten.
By this point we see more of a dirty ridge in place with some
remnant pieces of energy coming over the top and into the region.
With little to no organization with incoming pieces of energy, the
main impact would likely be scattered showers at the most. These
unorganized, but yet unsettled conditions persist through the
remainder of the period with the best chance for precip being in
the mountains. With snow levels still above most mountains, rain
showers will be the main precipitation type. Another big question
with the flattening of the ridge would be whether fog/stratus will
continue to remain in place. For this forecast I removed the
mention late Wednesday onward as I feel an increase of mid and
high clouds will bring an end to it. This will have to be fine
tuned as we approach allowing for a higher confidence forecast.
Temperatures continue to sit on the warm side of normal which is
bad news for any snow lovers out there. Mild and dry conditions
with areas of fog will likely be the main story for much of next
week leading to just another chapter in the lackluster winter we
have seen up to this point. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak storm system will exit the region to the east
tonight. In the mean time the eastern TAF sites will experience
generally MVFR conditions with occasional rain/snow mix until
03-05Z with rain at the lowest elevation locations of KLWS. KEAT
and KMWH should be behind the precipitation shield but stubborn
IFR stratus will likely remain at KMWH through the evening. The
precipitation of the last 12 hours has added significant moisture
to the boundary layer and the low level inversion remains
entrenched over the region. This brings high confidence that most
TAF sites will see a return of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions in
stratus and fog by 12Z Friday. A second storm system will spread
precipitation over the region during Friday afternoon but this
rain may help break up the IFR stratus into MVFR ceilings. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  50  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  60  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The current weak weather disturbance which is bringing
areas of very light snow and rain to much of the area will exit
to the east tonight. Late this afternoon and evening the eastern
third of the forecast area will still be under the precipitation
shield of this wave disturbance...and by late this evening only
residual showers will be found in the Idaho Panhandle mountains.
The rest of the forecast area will enter a break period
characterized by areas of low clouds and fog in the basin and
valleys. Today`s weak wave will do little to weaken the low level
inversion which has sat over the region for the last
week...however the precipitation falling into the boundary layer
today will serve to re-juice the low levels with more moisture
setting the stage for a continuation of murky deep winter
inversion weather. /Fugazzi

...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...

Friday through Saturday night: A flat ridge of high pressure will
be positioned over the region and a rich plume of subtropical
moisture will stream into the region delivering the next round of
precipitation. Models have come into better agreement in regards
to timing but still have subtle differences related to QPF
amounts. The good news is most of the QPF discrepancies are across
the eastern third of the CWA where precipitation will mainly be in
the form of rain and mountain snow/rain. For Central and Northern
Washington, the mild air mass coupled with pockets of sub-freezing
temperatures will bring the potential for a light wintry mix of
sleet and freezing rain. On a good note, the deepest moisture and
heaviest QPF arrive after 18z (10AM) tomorrow and this time of day
does not bode well for significant ice accumulations but until
temperatures warm above freezing, the threat for spotty wintry
precipitation will exist.

A quick examination of current surface temperatures also suggest
temperatures are warming near the freezing mark for most Cascade
Valleys, Wenatchee Area, Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley.
The question is whether these locations will experience any
clearing overnight allowing temperatures to radiate back into the
lower to mid 20s or will they remain nearly constant. If
temperatures drop, the threat for freezing rain will increase. If
they remain steady, it will be extremely tough to see any impacts
from wintry precipitation. This is where we turn our attention to
latest CAMS; the stratus and fog has been scrubbed out of the
Methow Valley and Leavenworth Area and is breaking up in the
Wenatchee Area. This will allow for partial clearing overnight but
the next cloud shield is already moving onto the coast which
suggest any clearing is likely to be short-lived. With this in
mind, ingredients are not lining up for significant ice
accumulations but will give the midnight crew one last look to
ensure winter highlights are not necessary. Meanwhile, we will
continue to mention the possibility for pockets of freezing rain
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, Wx Story, and Social Media. The
threat for any freezing rain will wane by early Saturday morning
and any precipitation Saturday (which will not be much given
40-50kts of westerly flow aloft) will fall in the form of rain.

For locations east of a line from Republic to Wenatchee, precipitation
will mainly fall as a combination of rain and snow...becoming all
rain. A local pocket of subfreezing air could bring brief freezing
rain to any of the valleys along the Canadian Border but generally
speaking, forecast soundings indicate a much more consolidate
warming between the surface and 4000 feet indicating precipitation
transitioning from snow to rain or just all rain. Snow levels will
start off roughly on valleys floors north and 5000 feet south
Friday morning and increase 5-8K ft (North-South) by Saturday
morning. Precipitation will slowly clear south to north through
the day on Saturday but most activity will focus in the northern
and eastern mountains.

Look for light winds Friday...becoming gusty in the mountain Friday
night and across the lower Basin, Foothills of the Blues, and
Palouse Saturday afternoon. Winds aloft within the 850-700mb layer
will increase between 35-50 kts indicating the potential gusts
along exposed ridgetops. For the aforementioned lowlands on
Saturday afternoon, winds will generally increase 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-40 mph. Locations that experience these winds like La
Crosse, Pomeroy, Lewiston, and Pullman could easily see
temperatures warm into the 50s. There is some uncertainty how far
west these winds expand in the Basin and if they do, many
locations could be warmer than forecast. The same goes without
saying for communities that see little to no wind and perhaps
remain under low clouds. /sb

Sunday through Thursday: Moving into next week we see a
significant decline in the weather activity level as another
strong ridge of high pressure builds in. As we have seen multiple
times in the recent past, the storm track will push well to our
north leading to a significant drying and warming trend for most.
Starting Sunday the only lingering chance for showers would be in
the mountains of the ID Panhandle as the weekend system continues
to exit east. Any precip will be in the form of rain showers as
snow levels remain between 7 and 8 thousand feet. The biggest
changes we will see for the first couple of days next week would
be the increase in fog and low clouds along with warming temps
especially in the higher elevations as warmer air advects in due
to the building ridge. Confidence through the early part of next
week is high that very little to no precipitation will fall Sunday
night through at least Tuesday. Where confidence levels fall off
the cliff would be the temperatures for the region. With areas of
persistent fog around the region, areas that remain in the fog/low
clouds will have a tough time seeing large diurnal swings whereas
other areas that clear out will have no problem seeing significant
warming during the day. Another question will be how warm the
mountains above the low level inversions will get. Both the euro
and GFS have 850mb temps near or above +11C or approx 52F near
Spokane with slightly cooler further north. Seeing temps at 850mb
is extremely rare and actually will approach record high levels if
they pan out. What all of this equates to is above normal
temperatures both daytime and night with highs in the upper 30s to
low 50s and lows above in the mid to upper 30s. With temps well
above normal and dewpoints above the freezing mark, we will likely
see a significant drop in the amount of snow that remains around
the area.

The stagnant and mild conditions look to continue through at least
late Tuesday before we start to see the ridge potentially flatten.
By this point we see more of a dirty ridge in place with some
remnant pieces of energy coming over the top and into the region.
With little to no organization with incoming pieces of energy, the
main impact would likely be scattered showers at the most. These
unorganized, but yet unsettled conditions persist through the
remainder of the period with the best chance for precip being in
the mountains. With snow levels still above most mountains, rain
showers will be the main precipitation type. Another big question
with the flattening of the ridge would be whether fog/stratus will
continue to remain in place. For this forecast I removed the
mention late Wednesday onward as I feel an increase of mid and
high clouds will bring an end to it. This will have to be fine
tuned as we approach allowing for a higher confidence forecast.
Temperatures continue to sit on the warm side of normal which is
bad news for any snow lovers out there. Mild and dry conditions
with areas of fog will likely be the main story for much of next
week leading to just another chapter in the lackluster winter we
have seen up to this point. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A weak weather system will move through the region today
morning and exit to the east this evening. The eastern TAF sites
of KGEG...KSFF...KCOE and KPUW will be under threat of periods of
MVFR Ceilings and vis in light snow through this afternoon. KLWS
should remain VFR but subject to intermittent rain this afternoon
and evening. KMWH and KEAT reside in a deep and moist boundary
layer where IFR conditions are more likely in continued stratus
and some fog...but a threat of light FZRA exists this morning
through 21Z as the weather disturbance aloft passes through. Any
amounts of ice accumulation will be light and spotty and may miss
these stations altogether...but the threat is significant enough
to mention in the TAFs with a TEMPO group./MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  50  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  60  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 222230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will exit the area tonight bringing a brief
but cloudy break period. A wetter storm system will deliver mountain
snow and valley rain with some pockets of freezing rain Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are
expected next week as high pressure builds back in over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The current weak weather disturbance which is bringing
areas of very light snow and rain to much of the area will exit
to the east tonight. Late this afternoon and evening the eastern
third of the forecast area will still be under the precipitation
shield of this wave disturbance...and by late this evening only
residual showers will be found in the Idaho Panhandle mountains.
The rest of the forecast area will enter a break period
characterized by areas of low clouds and fog in the basin and
valleys. Today`s weak wave will do little to weaken the low level
inversion which has sat over the region for the last
week...however the precipitation falling into the boundary layer
today will serve to re-juice the low levels with more moisture
setting the stage for a continuation of murky deep winter
inversion weather. /Fugazzi

...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...

Friday through Saturday night: A flat ridge of high pressure will
be positioned over the region and a rich plume of subtropical
moisture will stream into the region delivering the next round of
precipitation. Models have come into better agreement in regards
to timing but still have subtle differences related to QPF
amounts. The good news is most of the QPF discrepancies are across
the eastern third of the CWA where precipitation will mainly be in
the form of rain and mountain snow/rain. For Central and Northern
Washington, the mild air mass coupled with pockets of sub-freezing
temperatures will bring the potential for a light wintry mix of
sleet and freezing rain. On a good note, the deepest moisture and
heaviest QPF arrive after 18z (10AM) tomorrow and this time of day
does not bode well for significant ice accumulations but until
temperatures warm above freezing, the threat for spotty wintry
precipitation will exist.

A quick examination of current surface temperatures also suggest
temperatures are warming near the freezing mark for most Cascade
Valleys, Wenatchee Area, Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley.
The question is whether these locations will experience any
clearing overnight allowing temperatures to radiate back into the
lower to mid 20s or will they remain nearly constant. If
temperatures drop, the threat for freezing rain will increase. If
they remain steady, it will be extremely tough to see any impacts
from wintry precipitation. This is where we turn our attention to
latest CAMS; the stratus and fog has been scrubbed out of the
Methow Valley and Leavenworth Area and is breaking up in the
Wenatchee Area. This will allow for partial clearing overnight but
the next cloud shield is already moving onto the coast which
suggest any clearing is likely to be short-lived. With this in
mind, ingredients are not lining up for significant ice
accumulations but will give the midnight crew one last look to
ensure winter highlights are not necessary. Meanwhile, we will
continue to mention the possibility for pockets of freezing rain
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, Wx Story, and Social Media. The
threat for any freezing rain will wane by early Saturday morning
and any precipitation Saturday (which will not be much given
40-50kts of westerly flow aloft) will fall in the form of rain.

For locations east of a line from Republic to Wenatchee, precipitation
will mainly fall as a combination of rain and snow...becoming all
rain. A local pocket of subfreezing air could bring brief freezing
rain to any of the valleys along the Canadian Border but generally
speaking, forecast soundings indicate a much more consolidate
warming between the surface and 4000 feet indicating precipitation
transitioning from snow to rain or just all rain. Snow levels will
start off roughly on valleys floors north and 5000 feet south
Friday morning and increase 5-8K ft (North-South) by Saturday
morning. Precipitation will slowly clear south to north through
the day on Saturday but most activity will focus in the northern
and eastern mountains.

Look for light winds Friday...becoming gusty in the mountain Friday
night and across the lower Basin, Foothills of the Blues, and
Palouse Saturday afternoon. Winds aloft within the 850-700mb layer
will increase between 35-50 kts indicating the potential gusts
along exposed ridgetops. For the aforementioned lowlands on
Saturday afternoon, winds will generally increase 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-40 mph. Locations that experience these winds like La
Crosse, Pomeroy, Lewiston, and Pullman could easily see
temperatures warm into the 50s. There is some uncertainty how far
west these winds expand in the Basin and if they do, many
locations could be warmer than forecast. The same goes without
saying for communities that see little to no wind and perhaps
remain under low clouds. /sb

Sunday through Thursday: Moving into next week we see a
significant decline in the weather activity level as another
strong ridge of high pressure builds in. As we have seen multiple
times in the recent past, the storm track will push well to our
north leading to a significant drying and warming trend for most.
Starting Sunday the only lingering chance for showers would be in
the mountains of the ID Panhandle as the weekend system continues
to exit east. Any precip will be in the form of rain showers as
snow levels remain between 7 and 8 thousand feet. The biggest
changes we will see for the first couple of days next week would
be the increase in fog and low clouds along with warming temps
especially in the higher elevations as warmer air advects in due
to the building ridge. Confidence through the early part of next
week is high that very little to no precipitation will fall Sunday
night through at least Tuesday. Where confidence levels fall off
the cliff would be the temperatures for the region. With areas of
persistent fog around the region, areas that remain in the fog/low
clouds will have a tough time seeing large diurnal swings whereas
other areas that clear out will have no problem seeing significant
warming during the day. Another question will be how warm the
mountains above the low level inversions will get. Both the euro
and GFS have 850mb temps near or above +11C or approx 52F near
Spokane with slightly cooler further north. Seeing temps at 850mb
is extremely rare and actually will approach record high levels if
they pan out. What all of this equates to is above normal
temperatures both daytime and night with highs in the upper 30s to
low 50s and lows above in the mid to upper 30s. With temps well
above normal and dewpoints above the freezing mark, we will likely
see a significant drop in the amount of snow that remains around
the area.

The stagnant and mild conditions look to continue through at least
late Tuesday before we start to see the ridge potentially flatten.
By this point we see more of a dirty ridge in place with some
remnant pieces of energy coming over the top and into the region.
With little to no organization with incoming pieces of energy, the
main impact would likely be scattered showers at the most. These
unorganized, but yet unsettled conditions persist through the
remainder of the period with the best chance for precip being in
the mountains. With snow levels still above most mountains, rain
showers will be the main precipitation type. Another big question
with the flattening of the ridge would be whether fog/stratus will
continue to remain in place. For this forecast I removed the
mention late Wednesday onward as I feel an increase of mid and
high clouds will bring an end to it. This will have to be fine
tuned as we approach allowing for a higher confidence forecast.
Temperatures continue to sit on the warm side of normal which is
bad news for any snow lovers out there. Mild and dry conditions
with areas of fog will likely be the main story for much of next
week leading to just another chapter in the lackluster winter we
have seen up to this point. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A weak weather system will move through the region today
morning and exit to the east this evening. The eastern TAF sites
of KGEG...KSFF...KCOE and KPUW will be under threat of periods of
MVFR Ceilings and vis in light snow through this afternoon. KLWS
should remain VFR but subject to intermittent rain this afternoon
and evening. KMWH and KEAT reside in a deep and moist boundary
layer where IFR conditions are more likely in continued stratus
and some fog...but a threat of light FZRA exists this morning
through 21Z as the weather disturbance aloft passes through. Any
amounts of ice accumulation will be light and spotty and may miss
these stations altogether...but the threat is significant enough
to mention in the TAFs with a TEMPO group./MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  36  34  44  37  44 /  50  20  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  29  36  33  43  37  46 /  60  10  90  50  30  10
Pullman        32  43  40  52  40  50 /  60  10  60  20  10  10
Lewiston       34  48  42  54  41  52 /  50  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       26  32  32  39  35  39 /  30  30  80  50  30  10
Sandpoint      27  36  32  42  35  43 /  50  20  90  60  40  10
Kellogg        31  36  36  41  36  45 /  60  10  80  60  20  10
Moses Lake     30  37  34  49  37  46 /  10  20  40  20  10   0
Wenatchee      31  35  35  45  37  43 /  20  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           29  34  34  40  35  39 /  10  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak weather disturbances are expected to pass
through the region today through the weekend with a chance of
light wintry precipitation initially for most areas before a
gradual warming trend. More fog and low clouds are expected next
week as high pressure builds back in over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...The first in a series of storm systems is
progressing through the region this morning. Radar and satellite
indicate a shield of light precipitation forming over the basin
and northern mountains with web cams and observations indicating
light accumulations of snow and possibly a rain/snow mix from
Grand Coulee to Colville and probably north of there as well.

It is expected that this area of very light snow...mainly
snow...will continue to spread eastward and encompass most of the
eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. This
light snow and rain snow mix will be intermittent and amount to
little or nothing as far as accumulation. In the deep basin and
Cascades lee areas there is a smaller chance of
precipitation...spotty and brief...but the bad news is any
precipitation will likely include some freezing rain or ice
pellets in this area of deep cool and moist boundary layer air.

A Zone Forecast update has been issued to account for this
situation. Today will be continued cool with generally nuisance
light wintry mix precipitation...which will move out of the region
tonight with a return of fog and low clouds. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A weak weather system will move through the region today
morning and exit to the east this evening. The eastern TAF sites
of KGEG...KSFF...KCOE and KPUW will be under threat of periods of
MVFR Ceilings and vis in light snow through this afternoon. KLWS
should remain VFR but subject to intermittent rain this afternoon
and evening. KMWH and KEAT reside in a deep and moist boundary
layer where IFR conditions are more likely in continued stratus
and some fog...but a threat of light FZRA exists this morning
through 21Z as the weather disturbance aloft passes through. Any
amounts of ice accumulation will be light and spotty and may miss
these stations altogether...but the threat is significant enough
to mention in the TAFs with a TEMPO group./MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  28  36  36  44  37 /  60  30  20  80  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  35  29  35  35  43  36 /  60  50  10  90  50  30
Pullman        35  33  42  39  50  39 /  40  40  10  60  20  10
Lewiston       41  35  47  40  54  40 /  20  50  10  20  20  10
Colville       34  26  32  32  39  36 /  60  30  30  80  50  30
Sandpoint      33  27  36  34  42  34 /  60  50  20  90  60  40
Kellogg        34  30  35  34  41  35 /  40  60  10  80  60  20
Moses Lake     36  28  37  35  49  36 /  50  10  20  40  10  10
Wenatchee      35  30  35  34  45  37 /  50  10  30  30  10  10
Omak           33  28  34  33  40  34 /  30  10  30  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak weather disturbances are expected to pass
through the region today through the weekend with a chance of
light wintry precipitation initially for most areas before a
gradual warming trend. More fog and low clouds are expected next
week as high pressure builds back in over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...The first in a series of storm systems is
progressing through the region this morning. Radar and satellite
indicate a shield of light precipitation forming over the basin
and northern mountains with web cams and observations indicating
light accumulations of snow and possibly a rain/snow mix from
Grand Coulee to Colville and probably north of there as well.

It is expected that this area of very light snow...mainly
snow...will continue to spread eastward and encompass most of the
eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. This
light snow and rain snow mix will be intermittent and amount to
little or nothing as far as accumulation. In the deep basin and
Cascades lee areas there is a smaller chance of
precipitation...spotty and brief...but the bad news is any
precipitation will likely include some freezing rain or ice
pellets in this area of deep cool and moist boundary layer air.

A Zone Forecast update has been issued to account for this
situation. Today will be continued cool with generally nuisance
light wintry mix precipitation...which will move out of the region
tonight with a return of fog and low clouds. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A weak weather system will move through the region today
morning and exit to the east this evening. The eastern TAF sites
of KGEG...KSFF...KCOE and KPUW will be under threat of periods of
MVFR Ceilings and vis in light snow through this afternoon. KLWS
should remain VFR but subject to intermittent rain this afternoon
and evening. KMWH and KEAT reside in a deep and moist boundary
layer where IFR conditions are more likely in continued stratus
and some fog...but a threat of light FZRA exists this morning
through 21Z as the weather disturbance aloft passes through. Any
amounts of ice accumulation will be light and spotty and may miss
these stations altogether...but the threat is significant enough
to mention in the TAFs with a TEMPO group./MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  28  36  36  44  37 /  60  30  20  80  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  35  29  35  35  43  36 /  60  50  10  90  50  30
Pullman        35  33  42  39  50  39 /  40  40  10  60  20  10
Lewiston       41  35  47  40  54  40 /  20  50  10  20  20  10
Colville       34  26  32  32  39  36 /  60  30  30  80  50  30
Sandpoint      33  27  36  34  42  34 /  60  50  20  90  60  40
Kellogg        34  30  35  34  41  35 /  40  60  10  80  60  20
Moses Lake     36  28  37  35  49  36 /  50  10  20  40  10  10
Wenatchee      35  30  35  34  45  37 /  50  10  30  30  10  10
Omak           33  28  34  33  40  34 /  30  10  30  30  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221220
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with fog and low clouds will persist into Thursday
morning. A series of weak weather disturbances are expected to
pass through Thursday and into the weekend with a chance of light
wintry precipitation initially for most areas before a gradual
warming trend. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A flat ridge of high pressure will be over
the region today and Friday. Two weak waves will move through the
ridge. The first today and the second Friday afternoon. Neither of
these waves are overly potent as they get pulled apart moving
through the ridge. However there is weak to moderate isentropic
up-glide across mainly the northern zones associated with both of
these that will provide the lift. There is fairly deep Pacific
moisture pointed at the Pacific Northwest with PWAT`s rising to
around .70 this afternoon and over .80 Friday. So we are expecting
increased chance of light precipitation for both days.
Temperatures will be seasonally normal with highs in the 30s.

*Precipitation: As mentioned above yes...but extremely light with
 both waves. For most areas maybe a hundredth or two...with up to
 a tenth of an inch near the Cascades crest. With the second wave
 The focus will be mainly across the Cascades and northern
 mountains. Again accumulations will be a couple of
 hundredths...although near the Cascades moisture slopping over
 the crest may result in around a quarter inch and locally more.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels will start out near valley floors
 this morning, then slowly rise from the southwest. An inch or
 less of snow will be possible for the Cascades this morning, and
 a dusting to possibly a half inch for the northern mountains.
 Most of the lowlands may see a short period of snow or a
 snow/rain mix before turning over to all rain soon after the
 precipitation starts. Model guidance is still indicating some
 light freezing rain as well around the Wenatchee area, the
 southern end of the Waterville Plateau and portions of the deep
 basin around Moses lake...George and Mattawa. Accumulations will
 be very light but will result in a few hours of slippery driving
 conditions. This will be repeated again Friday morning, but by
 this time the basin will have warmed enough for mainly rain.
 Tobin

Friday night through Saturday night: A warm frontal boundary will
push across the region. The 00Z model runs continue to show a high
spread of precipitation amounts with this front with the NAM and
SREF guidance significantly wetter. This has been a consistent
theme compared to its previous model runs. They have been much
more wet compared to the GFS and ECMWF models. The Canadian model
does show a bull`s-eye of higher precip amounts in the Central
Panhandle Mtns, which is not out of the question considering a
broad west-northwest flow orientation at mid levels. The primary
forcing mechanism will be from isentropic ascent and models do
agree that this ascent will be good across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle. There will also be a good source of
moisture into the region with P-wats over 1.25 inches stretching
out from off of the Hawaiian Islands. Considering how much
moisture will be pushing in with the front, it is not out of the
question that the NAM/SREF is picking up on a wetter system
compared to the rest of the guidance. With that said, dynamics
will be lacking with this system, so will continue to lean more
toward the drier GFS/ECMWF solutions for now. The ID Panhandle
and the Cascade crest will see a better chance for more precip due
to favorable orographics in the westerly flow.

There will be a good punch of warmer air pushing in with the
front. The Methow Valley and some of the northern mountain valleys
of eastern WA will have a difficult time mixing out the colder
air. This may result in a continued freezing rain threat for these
colder pockets, but confidence is too low to keep freezing rain in
the forecast through Friday night. It looks as though the valleys
south of Lake Chelan, into the basin and over to the ID Panhandle
will have sufficiently mixed out that freezing rain will not be a
threat. Precip chances will be largely confined to the northern
mountains and the ID Panhandle by Saturday into Saturday night.
Snow levels are expected to increase to between 5,000 and 7,000
feet across these areas by this time, resulting in rain for most
elevations except across the higher mountain peaks.

Temperatures will become more mild on Saturday with 850 mb temps
increasing to between 5-8 Celsius into the Upper Columbia Basin.
Mixing will not be that great, but there should be enough for some
of this warmer to mix down to result in a noticeable bump in
temperatures compared to what has been observed through this week.
Expect highs on Saturday to climb into the 40s for most locations
and into the low 50s across the southeastern portion of the
forecast area.

Sunday through Wednesday: High pressure will rebound into the
region for next week. This will result in a return of fog and low
clouds across much of the region. Weak easterly winds will once
again result in the best chances for low clouds across the western
basin and in the mountain valleys in northeast and north-central
WA. Temperatures will continue to remain mild, but should be
noticeably cooler during the day where low clouds set up. A weak
system riding up the ridge may bring a chance for more light
precip for around mid week. Snow levels will remain up around 5-6
kft with any snow occurring in the mountains. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: A weak weather system will move through the region this
morning and exit to the east this evening. Expect light accumulations
of mainly snow...turning to rain. There will be a slight chance
for freezing rain around KMWH/KEAT through late morning. The
precipitation should hold off to around 20-21z for the eastern TAF
sites. Precipitation at all TAF sites will be light...around .01
or less. Conditions will remain mainly VFR cigs/vsby although MVFR
cigs may be possible if precip is heavy than expected. Although
precipitation will be light this will reinforce the boundary layer
moisture and cigs and possibly vsby are expected to deteriorate
through the night. KEAT/KMWH/KPUW MVFR...but KCOE/KSFF/KGEG mat
decrease to IFR/LIFR after 09z tonight. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  28  36  36  44  37 /  30  20  20  70  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  35  29  35  35  43  36 /  20  30  10  80  50  30
Pullman        35  33  42  39  50  39 /  20  30  10  60  30  10
Lewiston       41  35  47  40  54  40 /  20  30  10  20  20  10
Colville       34  26  32  32  39  36 /  30  10  30  80  50  30
Sandpoint      33  27  36  34  42  34 /  30  20  20  90  60  40
Kellogg        34  30  35  34  41  35 /  20  30  10  80  60  30
Moses Lake     36  28  37  35  49  36 /  30  10  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      35  30  35  34  45  37 /  40  10  30  20  10  10
Omak           33  28  34  33  40  34 /  30  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with fog and low clouds will persist into Thursday
morning. A series of weak weather disturbances are expected to
pass through Thursday and into the weekend with a chance of light
wintry precipitation initially for most areas before a gradual
warming trend. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A flat ridge of high pressure will be over
the region today and Friday. Two weak waves will move through the
ridge. The first today and the second Friday afternoon. Neither of
these waves are overly potent as they get pulled apart moving
through the ridge. However there is weak to moderate isentropic
up-glide across mainly the northern zones associated with both of
these that will provide the lift. There is fairly deep Pacific
moisture pointed at the Pacific Northwest with PWAT`s rising to
around .70 this afternoon and over .80 Friday. So we are expecting
increased chance of light precipitation for both days.
Temperatures will be seasonally normal with highs in the 30s.

*Precipitation: As mentioned above yes...but extremely light with
 both waves. For most areas maybe a hundredth or two...with up to
 a tenth of an inch near the Cascades crest. With the second wave
 The focus will be mainly across the Cascades and northern
 mountains. Again accumulations will be a couple of
 hundredths...although near the Cascades moisture slopping over
 the crest may result in around a quarter inch and locally more.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels will start out near valley floors
 this morning, then slowly rise from the southwest. An inch or
 less of snow will be possible for the Cascades this morning, and
 a dusting to possibly a half inch for the northern mountains.
 Most of the lowlands may see a short period of snow or a
 snow/rain mix before turning over to all rain soon after the
 precipitation starts. Model guidance is still indicating some
 light freezing rain as well around the Wenatchee area, the
 southern end of the Waterville Plateau and portions of the deep
 basin around Moses lake...George and Mattawa. Accumulations will
 be very light but will result in a few hours of slippery driving
 conditions. This will be repeated again Friday morning, but by
 this time the basin will have warmed enough for mainly rain.
 Tobin

Friday night through Saturday night: A warm frontal boundary will
push across the region. The 00Z model runs continue to show a high
spread of precipitation amounts with this front with the NAM and
SREF guidance significantly wetter. This has been a consistent
theme compared to its previous model runs. They have been much
more wet compared to the GFS and ECMWF models. The Canadian model
does show a bull`s-eye of higher precip amounts in the Central
Panhandle Mtns, which is not out of the question considering a
broad west-northwest flow orientation at mid levels. The primary
forcing mechanism will be from isentropic ascent and models do
agree that this ascent will be good across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle. There will also be a good source of
moisture into the region with P-wats over 1.25 inches stretching
out from off of the Hawaiian Islands. Considering how much
moisture will be pushing in with the front, it is not out of the
question that the NAM/SREF is picking up on a wetter system
compared to the rest of the guidance. With that said, dynamics
will be lacking with this system, so will continue to lean more
toward the drier GFS/ECMWF solutions for now. The ID Panhandle
and the Cascade crest will see a better chance for more precip due
to favorable orographics in the westerly flow.

There will be a good punch of warmer air pushing in with the
front. The Methow Valley and some of the northern mountain valleys
of eastern WA will have a difficult time mixing out the colder
air. This may result in a continued freezing rain threat for these
colder pockets, but confidence is too low to keep freezing rain in
the forecast through Friday night. It looks as though the valleys
south of Lake Chelan, into the basin and over to the ID Panhandle
will have sufficiently mixed out that freezing rain will not be a
threat. Precip chances will be largely confined to the northern
mountains and the ID Panhandle by Saturday into Saturday night.
Snow levels are expected to increase to between 5,000 and 7,000
feet across these areas by this time, resulting in rain for most
elevations except across the higher mountain peaks.

Temperatures will become more mild on Saturday with 850 mb temps
increasing to between 5-8 Celsius into the Upper Columbia Basin.
Mixing will not be that great, but there should be enough for some
of this warmer to mix down to result in a noticeable bump in
temperatures compared to what has been observed through this week.
Expect highs on Saturday to climb into the 40s for most locations
and into the low 50s across the southeastern portion of the
forecast area.

Sunday through Wednesday: High pressure will rebound into the
region for next week. This will result in a return of fog and low
clouds across much of the region. Weak easterly winds will once
again result in the best chances for low clouds across the western
basin and in the mountain valleys in northeast and north-central
WA. Temperatures will continue to remain mild, but should be
noticeably cooler during the day where low clouds set up. A weak
system riding up the ridge may bring a chance for more light
precip for around mid week. Snow levels will remain up around 5-6
kft with any snow occurring in the mountains. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A weak system will spread a mixed bag of light rain and
snow...as well as a chance of freezing rain around KMWH and a
slight chance for KEAT Thursday morning. Precip for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS should occur mainly during the afternoon
hours. The majority of the model guidance shows very light precip amounts
and thus sided more towards a continuation of VFR conditions for
these TAF sites per GFS model soundings except during the brief
precipitation window with MVFR forecast for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.
However if more precip develops like the NAM suggests CIGS could
lower into MVFR or IFR over a more widespread area. There is
higher confidence of the boundary layer remaining very moist at
KMWH/KEAT which should lead to continued IFR/MVFR conditions over
the next 24 hours. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  28  36  36  44  37 /  30  20  20  70  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  35  29  35  35  43  36 /  20  30  10  80  50  30
Pullman        35  33  42  39  50  39 /  20  30  10  60  30  10
Lewiston       41  35  47  40  54  40 /  20  30  10  20  20  10
Colville       34  26  32  32  39  36 /  30  10  30  80  50  30
Sandpoint      33  27  36  34  42  34 /  30  20  20  90  60  40
Kellogg        34  30  35  34  41  35 /  20  30  10  80  60  30
Moses Lake     36  28  37  35  49  36 /  30  10  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      35  30  35  34  45  37 /  40  10  30  20  10  10
Omak           33  28  34  33  40  34 /  30  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 AM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with fog and low clouds will persist into Thursday
morning. A series of weak weather disturbances are expected to
pass through Thursday and into the weekend with a chance of light
wintry precipitation initially for most areas before a gradual
warming trend. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A flat ridge of high pressure will be over
the region today and Friday. Two weak waves will move through the
ridge. The first today and the second Friday afternoon. Neither of
these waves are overly potent as they get pulled apart moving
through the ridge. However there is weak to moderate isentropic
up-glide across mainly the northern zones associated with both of
these that will provide the lift. There is fairly deep Pacific
moisture pointed at the Pacific Northwest with PWAT`s rising to
around .70 this afternoon and over .80 Friday. So we are expecting
increased chance of light precipitation for both days.
Temperatures will be seasonally normal with highs in the 30s.

*Precipitation: As mentioned above yes...but extremely light with
 both waves. For most areas maybe a hundredth or two...with up to
 a tenth of an inch near the Cascades crest. With the second wave
 The focus will be mainly across the Cascades and northern
 mountains. Again accumulations will be a couple of
 hundredths...although near the Cascades moisture slopping over
 the crest may result in around a quarter inch and locally more.

*Precipitation type: Snow levels will start out near valley floors
 this morning, then slowly rise from the southwest. An inch or
 less of snow will be possible for the Cascades this morning, and
 a dusting to possibly a half inch for the northern mountains.
 Most of the lowlands may see a short period of snow or a
 snow/rain mix before turning over to all rain soon after the
 precipitation starts. Model guidance is still indicating some
 light freezing rain as well around the Wenatchee area, the
 southern end of the Waterville Plateau and portions of the deep
 basin around Moses lake...George and Mattawa. Accumulations will
 be very light but will result in a few hours of slippery driving
 conditions. This will be repeated again Friday morning, but by
 this time the basin will have warmed enough for mainly rain.
 Tobin

Friday night through Saturday night: A warm frontal boundary will
push across the region. The 00Z model runs continue to show a high
spread of precipitation amounts with this front with the NAM and
SREF guidance significantly wetter. This has been a consistent
theme compared to its previous model runs. They have been much
more wet compared to the GFS and ECMWF models. The Canadian model
does show a bull`s-eye of higher precip amounts in the Central
Panhandle Mtns, which is not out of the question considering a
broad west-northwest flow orientation at mid levels. The primary
forcing mechanism will be from isentropic ascent and models do
agree that this ascent will be good across extreme eastern WA and
into the ID Panhandle. There will also be a good source of
moisture into the region with P-wats over 1.25 inches stretching
out from off of the Hawaiian Islands. Considering how much
moisture will be pushing in with the front, it is not out of the
question that the NAM/SREF is picking up on a wetter system
compared to the rest of the guidance. With that said, dynamics
will be lacking with this system, so will continue to lean more
toward the drier GFS/ECMWF solutions for now. The ID Panhandle
and the Cascade crest will see a better chance for more precip due
to favorable orographics in the westerly flow.

There will be a good punch of warmer air pushing in with the
front. The Methow Valley and some of the northern mountain valleys
of eastern WA will have a difficult time mixing out the colder
air. This may result in a continued freezing rain threat for these
colder pockets, but confidence is too low to keep freezing rain in
the forecast through Friday night. It looks as though the valleys
south of Lake Chelan, into the basin and over to the ID Panhandle
will have sufficiently mixed out that freezing rain will not be a
threat. Precip chances will be largely confined to the northern
mountains and the ID Panhandle by Saturday into Saturday night.
Snow levels are expected to increase to between 5,000 and 7,000
feet across these areas by this time, resulting in rain for most
elevations except across the higher mountain peaks.

Temperatures will become more mild on Saturday with 850 mb temps
increasing to between 5-8 Celsius into the Upper Columbia Basin.
Mixing will not be that great, but there should be enough for some
of this warmer to mix down to result in a noticeable bump in
temperatures compared to what has been observed through this week.
Expect highs on Saturday to climb into the 40s for most locations
and into the low 50s across the southeastern portion of the
forecast area.

Sunday through Wednesday: High pressure will rebound into the
region for next week. This will result in a return of fog and low
clouds across much of the region. Weak easterly winds will once
again result in the best chances for low clouds across the western
basin and in the mountain valleys in northeast and north-central
WA. Temperatures will continue to remain mild, but should be
noticeably cooler during the day where low clouds set up. A weak
system riding up the ridge may bring a chance for more light
precip for around mid week. Snow levels will remain up around 5-6
kft with any snow occurring in the mountains. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A weak system will spread a mixed bag of light rain and
snow...as well as a chance of freezing rain around KMWH and a
slight chance for KEAT Thursday morning. Precip for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS should occur mainly during the afternoon
hours. The majority of the model guidance shows very light precip amounts
and thus sided more towards a continuation of VFR conditions for
these TAF sites per GFS model soundings except during the brief
precipitation window with MVFR forecast for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.
However if more precip develops like the NAM suggests CIGS could
lower into MVFR or IFR over a more widespread area. There is
higher confidence of the boundary layer remaining very moist at
KMWH/KEAT which should lead to continued IFR/MVFR conditions over
the next 24 hours. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  28  36  36  44  37 /  30  20  20  70  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  35  29  35  35  43  36 /  20  30  10  80  50  30
Pullman        35  33  42  39  50  39 /  20  30  10  60  30  10
Lewiston       41  35  47  40  54  40 /  20  30  10  20  20  10
Colville       34  26  32  32  39  36 /  30  10  30  80  50  30
Sandpoint      33  27  36  34  42  34 /  30  20  20  90  60  40
Kellogg        34  30  35  34  41  35 /  20  30  10  80  60  30
Moses Lake     36  28  37  35  49  36 /  30  10  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      35  30  35  34  45  37 /  40  10  30  20  10  10
Omak           33  28  34  33  40  34 /  30  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





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