Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 211153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograhpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain from slow moving cold front has shifted east of all
forecast sites save PUW and LWS. These sites will see rain end
before 15z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible until the threat shifts
east...but confidence is low. Elsewhere...the main forecast issue
this morning is widespread low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs impacting
the remaining site. Not sure how extensive or thick this
cloudiness is due to high clouds blocking satellite fog
product...so leaned toward conditional climatology which suggests
it should begin to burn off between 17-19z. Confidence is not high
though. The next moist front will track into the Cascades around
04-06z this evening which will likely bring rains to EAT and
possibly MWH late in the forecast period. This should bring
another round of MVFR cigs. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Deep upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to make a slow eastward crawl through the Inland
NW this morning. As of 200 am...the front was located along a
line from Colville to the Blue Mountains with widespread
precipitation immediately ahead of the boundary. This shield of
precipitation will be the main feature of the weather today over
the region. North of I-90...the precipitation will be somewhat hit
or miss with lesser amounts of available moisture and deep ascent.
Meanwhile...south of I-90...the precipitation will begin to
blossom as the base of the aforementioned shortwave trough tracks
northeast...moving into SW Montana by afternoon. Various model
guidance is all consistent on producing a MISSPEND of heavier
precipitation across the southern Panhandle. The NAM is the most
aggressive solution and produces a broad swath of precipitation
amounts from 0.20-0.40 inches this morning. Some of this
intersects southern Shoshone County...impacting the towns of Avery
and Clarkia. The other solutions are insistent the heaviest
precipitation band will remain over the Clearwater Mountains and
points to the south. This scenario leaves most of the Inland NW
free of moderate to heavy precipitation for this morning.

The base of the trough is forecast to move into SW Montana by late
afternoon/evening which allows shortwave ridging to rebuild over
most of the area. This should bring a brief drying trend to the
region...however residual moisture and instability will keep a
threat of showers going along the ID/MT border as well as near the
Canadian border.

The shortwave ridge is expected to shift from the Cascades this
evening and into NW Montana by daybreak on Wednesday. This
transition will mark an increasing threat of precipitation once
again beginning near the Cascades and spreading into the Okanogan
Highlands and Wenatchee overnight. This round of precipitation
should be wetter than what the current front is delivering. These
differences are related to higher amounts of precipitable water
and much stronger isentropic ascent. The precipitation will also
be aided weak to moderate orograpic ascent from south-southeast
winds in the mid-atmosphere. The threat of precipitation will
persist through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night. fx

Wednesday through Saturday...

...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY...

Wednesday...Forecast models continue to show an atmospheric river
containing subtropical moisture getting picked up by a deep closed
low off the Central BC coast...with moisture slamming into the
Cascades on Wednesday...with rain also spilling into North Central
and Northeast Washington through the afternoon. 850mb winds out of
the south-southeast may result in significant spill over from the
crest into the valleys with 1-2 inches of rain not out of the
question with up to 3 inches along the Cascade crest. This long
duration rain may be enough to cause small debris flows over the
burn scar areas. With rivers and streams at their climatologically
lowest stages these rain amounts are not expected to cause
flooding. Elsewhere timing of when the moisture plume sags
southeast has slowed a bit with the 00z model runs with the
exception of the ECMWF. Thus POP`s were lowered east of a line
from Ritzville to Spokane to Sandpoint as rain in these areas may
hold off until Wednesday evening. 850mb winds out of the south-
southwest over the northern mountains will provide strong upslope
flow where around an inch of rain is possible. These same winds
will downslope off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains with the
Lewiston area getting the least amount of rain with this system.

Thursday...The atmospheric river shifts south across Oregon
possibly clipping far southeast Washington. Central and Eastern
Washington and North Idaho will be on the cool side of a 140kt
upper level jet supporting more of a showery scenario. With 850mb
winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and lack of isentropic
lift...a more pronounced rain shadow east of the Cascades is
expected. POP`s were lowered for much of the Columbia Basin
extending to Spokane and the Palouse on Thursday. Afternoon sun
breaks in combination with stronger winds aloft should result in
breezy conditions over the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse.

Friday and Saturday...GFS and ECMWF models show the development of
a 990mb surface low off the Oregon coast tracking north to off the
Washington Coast. The GFS shows the low closer to the coast and
shows more precipitation and wind potential compared to the ECMWF.
However both models indicate a warm front lifting north into
Washington and North Idaho late Friday afternoon into Friday night
with easterly flow favoring the East Slopes of the Cascades and
adjacent valleys and POP`s were increased to likely over a broader
area with chance POP`s elsewhere. Then the cold front passage
Saturday will keep precip chances alive especially in the
mountains. Snow levels look to remain high through the period with
the only the higher peaks being cold enough for snow.  JW

Saturday night through Tuesday night: An active weather pattern
remains over the Inland Northwest, with additional chances for
precipitation into early next week. The trough will finally move
inland on Sunday, which may be followed by somewhat of a break in
the wet weather over the lowlands. However, the approach of
another storm system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame will
bring additional chances for rainfall and high mountain snowfall.
This system looks to ride on another deep moisture fetch, which
could bring heavier rainfall to at least the Cascades.

Another thing to watch, although it doesn`t look like it will be
too much of an issue at this point, are snow levels. Snow levels
may fall low enough that some of the mountain passes could be
affected. Something to watch in the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures should finally fall back to near normal late October
values, at least during the afternoons. Low temperatures may be a
bit above normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moderate to heavy rain occurring along an elongated
frontal zone slowly passing through Eastern Washington and North
Idaho overnight and early Tuesday will bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times. Wind should shift and be somewhat breezy
behind the front with a lesser chance of showers. There may still
be some possibility of fog and low cloud formation due to this
rainfall either tonight into tomorrow morning and again tomorrow
night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  43  59  47  59  44 /  20  10  50  90  50  20
Coeur d`Alene  56  40  57  45  58  43 /  40  10  40  90  60  20
Pullman        56  42  62  47  58  46 /  30   0  20  80  60  40
Lewiston       63  43  66  50  62  49 /  40   0  10  20  60  50
Colville       58  43  54  46  58  44 /  30  30  90 100  70  40
Sandpoint      55  40  55  44  55  40 /  50  10  50 100  90  40
Kellogg        51  39  57  44  52  42 /  80  10  20  90  80  50
Moses Lake     65  46  59  49  64  45 /   0  20  80  70  20  10
Wenatchee      63  48  55  46  61  45 /   0  70  80  80  20  20
Omak           61  45  52  45  60  43 /  10  70 100  80  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 210525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moderate to heavy rain occurring along an elongated
frontal zone slowly passing through Eastern Washington and North
Idaho overnight and early Tuesday will bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times. Wind should shift and be somewhat breezy
behind the front with a lesser chance of showers. There may still
be some possibility of fog and low cloud formation due to this
rainfall either tonight into tomorrow morning and again tomorrow
night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moderate to heavy rain occurring along an elongated
frontal zone slowly passing through Eastern Washington and North
Idaho overnight and early Tuesday will bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at times. Wind should shift and be somewhat breezy
behind the front with a lesser chance of showers. There may still
be some possibility of fog and low cloud formation due to this
rainfall either tonight into tomorrow morning and again tomorrow
night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 210322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
822 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
822 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 210322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
822 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased reflectivity on radar and some brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall reported at observation sites
associated with the higher reflectivity necessitated another
update to grids and text products to increase the pops and qpf
associated with the wet frontal zone moving through the area
tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  90  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  90  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  80  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  80  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 210119
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
619 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update for tonight increased pops. QPF still not that heavy but
some of the most recent models have been consistent in the idea
that the band of precipitation moving through the Cascades and
Wenatchee vicinity will hold together fairly well as it moves
through the Spokane area tonight and into North Idaho later
overnight and tomorrow morning. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  70  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  70  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  70  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  60  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210119
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
619 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly moving through the Inland Northwest
which will bring precipitation to much of the area and an end to
the above average temperatures. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain continuing
as moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward
the Pacific Northwest early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update for tonight increased pops. QPF still not that heavy but
some of the most recent models have been consistent in the idea
that the band of precipitation moving through the Cascades and
Wenatchee vicinity will hold together fairly well as it moves
through the Spokane area tonight and into North Idaho later
overnight and tomorrow morning. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  90  30  10  90  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  90  50  20  90  90  80
Pullman        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  90  60  10  70  60  70
Lewiston       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  80  70  10  30  20  70
Colville       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  70  30  20 100 100  80
Sandpoint      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  90  50  30 100 100  90
Kellogg        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  70  90  30  60  80  80
Moses Lake     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  70  10  20  90  60  50
Wenatchee      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  70  10  60  80  80  50
Omak           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  60  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 202334
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
434 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202334
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
434 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 202334
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
434 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Slow moving cold front spreading, thickening, and
lowering clouds from west to east right now near Moses lake and
points west. This will continue overnight and the front will exit
North Idaho tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some moderate to heavy
rain may occur along a very thin and elongated area within the
frontal band per some of the short term models which may cause
MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. As to be expected after
rainfall there is the possibility of fog and low cloud formation
afterwards. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202155
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
254 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front is very slowly approaching the Inland Northwest which
will bring an end to the above average temperatures. Not all areas
will see rain with the passage of this first front but a series of
very moist systems will continue to impact the region through the
week...bringing widespread rain and lowering snow levels to the
higher peaks. The active pattern will continue through the weekend
with the potential for heavy rain continuing as moisture
associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific
Northwest early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Overview and model discussion: an upper level ridge of high
pressure is positioned over the central US ...squeezed between two
long wave trofs. The feature we are concerned with is a massive
trof over the northeastern Pacific with multiple shortwaves
embedded in the ancticyclonic circulation. The parent low is
located well northeast of the Inland Northwest...near the Alaska
Peninsula. Closer to home is the first of many shortwaves that
will bring an end to the early fall weather and replace it with
more normal late fall weather. The frontal boundary
associated with this first trof is located near the WA/OR coast
and will slowly move inland tonight thanks to a potent vort max
rounding the base of the trof. Showers are evident along and west
of the Cascades with high clouds having a hard time progressing
east...giving eastern Washington and northern Idaho one last
mostly sunny and near 70 degree day.

Models have had a hard time capturing the very slow forward
progress of this frontal boundary. The poor initialization is
leading to a difference in model solutions in the very short
term...mainly regarding the precipitation potential overnight in
the southeastern portion of our area. The NAM is the outlier which
is bringing a narrow band of heavy precipitation late this evening
over Adams and Lincoln Counties...with a maximum of .50 inch of
water...while the SREF, GFS, and ECMWF are all indicating precip
amounts closer to from a trace to .10. Quite the difference for
the first 12 hours of a forecast!

Will have to watch how the radar trends this evening but at this
time we are discounting the NAM and leaning heavily toward the
SREF, GFS, and ECMWF solution. The more common solution focuses
the lift and subsequent heavier precipitation amounts mainly in
Pendleton`s forecast area...but it will clip Asotin, Nez Perce,
and Lewis Counties. No widespread flooding is expected but
certainly localized standing water could lead to some minor issues
if these counties do see the .50 plus that is possible overnight.

Beyond tonight and continuing into Wednesday, the models are in
better agreement with the large scale features adding to our
confidence.

Weather highlights through Wednesday night: The only other
potential impact of note is lowering snow levels over the
Bitterroot Mountain Range with expected precipitation overnight.
Snow levels will stay above our highest passes in the region so no
travel impacts are expected. While we don`t expect to see snow
sticking to the ground, it`s hard to rule out seeing snow
accumulating on the highest peaks and maybe snow briefly mixing
with rain at our highest road passes. Again, no impacts are
expected at this point.

The remainder of this period will consist of a brief drying period
before the next much more vigorous system arrives (we`ll call it
Storm 2). The arrival of Storm 2 is preliminarily scheduled for
late Tuesday night along the Cascade crest...spreading to the
Idaho panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. The initial surge of
heaviest precipitation will remain over Chelan, Okanogan, Douglas,
and Ferry Counties. The impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
being tapped by this low pressure system will raise precipitable
waters values across the region 150-200% of normal. Localized
flooding will be more of a concern with Storm 2...especially
considering the recent burn scars. 36-48 hour local rainfall
totals with Storm 2 could exceed 2 near the Cascade Crest with
1 likely over much of the northern third of Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle.
AB

Thursday through Monday...Cool and unsettled weather will dominate
the large scale weather pattern as a Pacific trough sends a series
of weather impulses our way. the region will be in moist southwest
flow aloft or Thursday and Friday. A strong jet stream will propel
a fetch of deep moisture of tropical origins toward the PacNW
coast. While most of the forecast area will see a decent amount of
precipitation from an extended period of moist and unstable
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday along with some high
elevation snow for the Cascades, the Inland Northwest will see the
full benefit of this moisture with a strong warm front pushing
north into the region Friday night into Saturday. The strong warm
air advection associated with this warm front will keep
temperatures rather mild overnight Friday. In fact, some of the
southern valley locations like Wenatchee and George may only cool
a few degrees from Friday`s max temps. A cold front will sweep
through the region Saturday, followed by the passage of the upper
trough Saturday night. We may see a brief break in the wet weather
on Sunday into Monday before the next Pacific storm approaches
with another round of valley rain and mountain snow. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at
KEAT this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern
WA and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some
light rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS. MVFR CIGS/VIS
will be possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at
KEAT. This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  57  43  54  47  57 /  50  30  10  90  90  80
COEUR D`ALENE  46  55  40  54  45  56 /  50  50  20  90  90  80
PULLMAN        45  56  41  59  47  56 /  70  60  10  70  60  70
LEWISTON       49  61  43  64  50  60 /  70  70  10  30  20  70
COLVILLE       46  57  42  52  46  57 /  40  30  20 100 100  80
SANDPOINT      45  54  40  52  44  55 /  40  50  30 100 100  90
KELLOGG        43  51  38  53  44  52 /  60  90  30  60  80  80
MOSES LAKE     46  64  45  58  49  62 /  30  10  20  90  60  50
WENATCHEE      45  62  45  55  46  60 /  40  10  60  80  80  50
OMAK           43  60  44  53  45  58 /  50  10  60 100  80  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 201825
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is creeping very slowly into the Cascade Mtns this
morning. A shortwave disturbance rounding the upper level trough
of lower pressure in the eastern Pacific will begin to nudge the
mid level front eastward today. However, this will be slow going
this afternoon and then speed up a bit more overnight tonight.
Models are showing a slower progression of the front today than
previously forecasted. I reduced sky cover across much of the
eastern half of the forecast area today. Best chances for rain
through this afternoon will be in the Cascades over to the
Okanogan Highlands down to the Waterville Plateau. This rain
is expected to eventually nudge into the western basin by the late
afternoon before spreading across into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. High temperatures were lowered a little bit in the
Okanogan Vly and Wenatchee Area. Omak and Wenatchee will warm up a
little bit more through the early afternoon, but are not expected
to get out of the low 60s with clouds increasing and rain expect
to begin soon. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at KEAT
this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some light
rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS. MVFR cigs/vis will be
possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at KEAT.
This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  58  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  70  45  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        70  45  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       65  47  58  42  52  47 /  10  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      66  44  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        68  44  50  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     63  47  65  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      61  47  64  46  56  47 /  70  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           61  44  61  43  52  44 /  70  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 201825
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is creeping very slowly into the Cascade Mtns this
morning. A shortwave disturbance rounding the upper level trough
of lower pressure in the eastern Pacific will begin to nudge the
mid level front eastward today. However, this will be slow going
this afternoon and then speed up a bit more overnight tonight.
Models are showing a slower progression of the front today than
previously forecasted. I reduced sky cover across much of the
eastern half of the forecast area today. Best chances for rain
through this afternoon will be in the Cascades over to the
Okanogan Highlands down to the Waterville Plateau. This rain
is expected to eventually nudge into the western basin by the late
afternoon before spreading across into the ID Panhandle through
tonight. High temperatures were lowered a little bit in the
Okanogan Vly and Wenatchee Area. Omak and Wenatchee will warm up a
little bit more through the early afternoon, but are not expected
to get out of the low 60s with clouds increasing and rain expect
to begin soon. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A slow moving cold front will produce light rain at KEAT
this afternoon. This front will not push into extreme eastern WA
and the ID Panhandle until tonight. This will result in some light
rain for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS. MVFR cigs/vis will be
possible for these TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog will be possible for the morning hours on Tuesday at KEAT.
This will be dependent on how fast the mid level clouds will
clear out late tonight, which is still a bit uncertain at this
time. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  58  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  70  45  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        70  45  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       65  47  58  42  52  47 /  10  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      66  44  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        68  44  50  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     63  47  65  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      61  47  64  46  56  47 /  70  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           61  44  61  43  52  44 /  70  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 201227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
527 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS:12z TAFS: Slow moving cold front currently west of the
Cascades will trudge slowly east through the forecast period. This
will result in an increasing cloud trend for All forecast sites
as well as an increasing chance of precipitation. Through
00z...The main chances for -ra will impact eat followed by Mwh.
After 00z...the Threat will spread to the remaining sites. Precip
amounts will be fairly light for mwh and eat and as such we
primarly expect vfr conditions. Rainfall potential will increase
After 00z...with moderate rainfall possible for puw and Lws aft
06z. We stuck with vfr cigs...however Brief mvfr conditions will
be possible if rainfall becomes heavy and persistent enough. Other
concern is patchy hz/br impacting mwh/eat this morning. Satellite
shows nothing in these areas so suspect its rather local and
should burn off between 16-18z. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
255 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The main focus for this period will revolve
around deep offshore trough and elongated cold front currently
hung up over western Washington. The front contains a nice plume
of precipitable water ranging from 1-1.25 inches with widespread
precipitation according to radar imagery. While we expect the
front to translate eastward through the day and tonight...the
question is how fast will it move. Thus far it has made very
little eastward progress due to continued digging on the backside
of the trough. However that digging will likely cease soon as
water vapor imagery is showing one last chunk of energy pushing
into the southwest quadrant of the offshore trough. Consequently
we will see a slowly increasing pop trend through the
day...beginning near the Cascades this morning...possibly
impacting Omak...Wenatchee...and most of the lee valleys.
Precipitation amounts won`t be heavy as the front will contain at
least some weak downslope impacts due to south-southwest mid-level
flow passing over the Cascades. By afternoon...the front will
likely shift into the eastern portions of the Columbia Basin and
Okanogan Highlands...with increasing downslope flow forming in the
lee of the Cascades. Odds are growing...that extreme eastern
Washington and the Panhandle will be dry for most of the day.

By Tonight...the front will move into extreme eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle...increasing pops significantly. The
location standing the best chance of precipitation will be over
the SE corner of Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. This
focus will be based on the positioning of the front combined with
the ejection of the upstream upper level trough. Models in good
agreement that the base of the trough will track NE and moving
into eastern Oregon by morning. This allows for good upper level
jet difluence...and fair q-vector convergence. This amounts to
rather strong and deep lifting potential which in turn will likely
lead to widespread precipitation over this area. The good threat
of precipitation will likely persist through Tuesday morning.
After this time...the base of the upper level trough is expected
to shift into SE Idaho with temporary shortwave ridging filling in
over the Inland NW. This will result in lower chances for
precipitation...except perhaps for the Camas Prairie...and
southern Shoshone County. Precipitation amounts from this
evening...will likely show a great variation...with the SE
quadrant of the forecast area potentially seeing the most
precipitation. The NAM suggests widespread amounts ranging from
0.25-0.50 stretching from Sandpoint to the Blues and points east.
Meanwhile the GFS...SREF...and ECMWF keeps the heaviest
precipitation locked south and east of a line from the the Silver
Valley to Lewiston. Aside from precipitation...temperatures will
continue to exhibit their warm string...with highs today in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will likely cool toward normal
on Tuesday. fx

Tuesday night through Friday...

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

A large closed off the Central British Columbia Coast along 140W
will result in a wet southwesterly flow over the region. An
atmospheric river with subtropical moisture will get aimed at the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night before sagging south into
northern Oregon and southeast Washington on Thursday. However
continued waves coming around the low in the southwest flow will
keep a wet pattern in place. Strong mid level flow with 850mb
winds out of the south- southwest at 25-40 kts will provide strong
upslope flow into the northern mountains...with the Cascade crest
area expected to receive the highest rainfall totals. Models
continue to show the potential for as much as 2-3 inches of rain
for the Cascade crest and 1-2 inches for the northern mountains.
The burn scar areas will have to be monitored with these rain
amounts.  The Spokane area and Central Panhandle Mountains should
also see appreciable rain with around 0.5-0.75 inches expected.
Snow levels around 6000 feet will result in heavy accumulations
for the higher Cascade peaks. Cloud cover and occasionally breezy
south winds will keep lows temperatures on the mild side...while
day time highs should be near normal.  JW

Friday night through Monday night: An extended period of unsettled
weather is expected over the Inland Northwest during this period.
The models have come in once again wetter for the end of the work
week into the first part of the weekend. The trough will finally
move inland Friday night/Saturday, which will bring another round
of showers and high elevation snowfall. But this will not be the
end of the precipitation. Yet another trough sets up off the
coast, which could bring another extended period of wet weather.
Early indications are that another atmospheric river will set up
over/near the Inland Northwest, which would cause some flooding
concerns.

This forecast raised precipitation chances each day. If there
were a period where lower rainfall chances were warranted it would
be Sunday afternoon. The cloud cover and precipitation will allow
for afternoon temperatures to fall closer to normal, and even be
right at normal late in the weekend. However, the cloud cover
should also keep low temperatures a bit warmer than normal. ty&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  47  57  43  55  48 /   0  50  40  10  90  90
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  57  41  56  46 /   0  50  50  10  90  90
Pullman        67  44  57  42  59  48 /   0  80  60  10  70  50
Lewiston       74  50  62  43  65  51 /   0  80  70  10  10  20
Colville       66  45  57  42  52  47 /  30  50  40  20 100 100
Sandpoint      67  43  55  39  53  45 /   0  40  60  20 100 100
Kellogg        67  43  51  39  54  45 /   0  50  90  20  60  80
Moses Lake     68  47  63  45  59  50 /  30  30  10  20  70  50
Wenatchee      65  47  63  46  56  47 /  60  20  10  50  70  60
Omak           64  44  61  43  52  44 /  60  30  10  50 100  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 200535
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1035 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates this evening included minor modification to sky cover and
minimum temperature forecast for tonight. Changes were not
significant enough to impact the zone forecast wording so they
were not updated. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  90
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  90
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  70
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20 100
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  60
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  70
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  50  70
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  50 100

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 200535
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1035 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates this evening included minor modification to sky cover and
minimum temperature forecast for tonight. Changes were not
significant enough to impact the zone forecast wording so they
were not updated. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Very slow moving wet cold front continuing to make slow
progress eastward along the coast will continue to allow clouds to
invade the sky from the west and thicken over the aviation area
overnight. light rain from the front may start to impact the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades as early as 18Z Monday...and Moses
Lake near 21Z and Spokane area as late as 03Z Tuesday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  90
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  90
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  70
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20 100
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  60
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  70
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  50  70
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  50 100

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 192333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...Satellite this afternoon indicates
the forecast area is under a southerly flow regime between a
departing upper level ridge with axis over Montana and an
incoming Gulf of Alaska trough. The deep moisture feed ahead of
this trough which will evolve into a slow moving frontal band is
currently approaching the Pacific Coast. The arrival and passage
of this initial front will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours.

Models are in good agreement in elongating this trough as it
approaches and thus slowing down the eastward progression
tonight and Monday...and then splitting off the southern trough
base dynamic region over the Great basin while ejecting a weakened
northern branch wave through the region Monday evening and into
Tuesday morning.

The ramifications of this evolution will be generally increasing
mid and high clouds tonight...followed by a general increase in
shower chances Monday mainly over the Cascades and western basin
as the slow moving front crawls off the Cascades and acts as a
focusing mechanism for the moisture feed welling up in the
southerly flow. Occasional showers are a near certainty in the
Cascade mountains and the Okanogan highlands where orography will
augment the frontal lift. Over the lowlands such as Wenatchee and
Omak and as far east as Moses lake and Republic showers will be
more spotty and hit-and-miss but none-the-less present. The
eastern half of the forecast area will likely escape with one
more dry and mild but cloudy day.

On Monday night the split occurs causing the northern branch to
become more westerly flow driven and thus allows it to speed up
the progression of the front. This period will bring the greatest
chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area with
the best chance of a tenth or two of rain over the Palouse and
points south as well as the Idaho Panhandle mountains between
midnight and dawn Tuesday...with scattered/occasional showers to
the north of these zones. /Fugazzi

Tuesday: The region will be under a weakly unstable and cooler
post frontal air mass. Best chances for precip will be in the
more favorable upslope areas in the ID Panhandle where westerly
flow will help force some lingering showers. Temperatures will
drop to near normal and will be much cooler across extreme eastern
WA and in the ID Panhandle compared to Monday.

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

Tuesday night through Thursday: A long duration atmospheric river
event is expected at the heart of the work week. A plume of
moisture with tropical Connections will be oriented at the
Northwest. This plume of moisture will be drawn up from between
170W to 180W longitude and 25N to 30N latitude. Current satellite
imagery shows active convection occurring in this portion of the
sub- tropics this afternoon. This convection is lofting a
considerable amount of moisture into the atmosphere, which will be
entrained into the westerlies and ride the Polar Jet stream. This
will also include moisture from Hurricane Ana that is currently
impacting the Hawaiian Islands. P-wats with the moisture plume
will be around 1.25 inches as it impacts western WA beginning
Tuesday night. This will be roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
higher than what is typically observed this time of the year.

There is still some model uncertainty with the shortwaves that
rotate in around a deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. A moderate to strong jet streak of around 165 kts
will be directed toward the Northwest. This will result in good
jet dynamics acting as a forcing mechanism. The topography will
also play a major role in location and intensity of the precip.
Strong westerly to southwesterly flow at low to mid levels will
result in the bulk of this moisture falling on the windward slopes
of the Cascade Mtns. This will result in heavy precip across the
Cascade crest. Conditions look to be wet along the lee side of the
Cascade Mtns as well. Winds at 850 mbs do indicate a southerly to
southeasterly component, which will result in some upslope flow
across these areas as well. Other favorable locations for
moderate to heavy precip will be across the northern mtns in
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Precip is expected to hold off
in the Panhandle until Wednesday, but will continue to be wet
through at least Thursday.

* Rain: Amounts will vary considerable across the region. The
  East Slopes of the Cascade Mtns will see a range of 0.75 inches
  to over 3 inches at the Cascade crest. A secondary maximum for
  rainfall will be across the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
  Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches possible. The Central
  Panhandle Mtns will likely see moderate to heavy rains as well
  with up to an inch or so expected. Confidence is a bit lower in
  this area as models differ on how fast to push across the cold
  front. If there is a slower progression of the cold front, then
  the Central Panhandle Mtns will see more rainfall than
  forecasted. The greater basin will see amounts generally between
  0.25 and 0.75 inches.

* Potential Flooding Impacts: There will be a concern for localized
  flooding, mainly across the East Slopes of the Northern
  Cascades. This will be of special concern on recent burn scars
  with mud and/or debris flows possible. Rainfall intensity should
  not be high enough for flash flooding, but will need to be
  monitored during the event. Considering that this will be the
  first significant rainfall for the season, most other areas will
  see a lower risk for flooding concerns.

* Snow: High mountain snowfall is expected across the Cascade
  Mtns with snow levels at around 6,000 feet. These snow levels
  may start out a bit higher at the beginning of the event, but
  will drop through Thursday. Snowfall amounts of over a foot will
  be possible above the 6,000 foot level.

* Temperatures: Mild overnight low temperatures are expected
  during this period; however, temperatures will not warm much during
  the day with highs near normal in the 50s to low 60s. /SVH

Thursday Night thru Saturday: A continuation of the moist flow
with a series of waves in southwest flow is expected for the first part
of this period. The threat of mud/debris flows will remain as the
burn scar areas could possibly receive additional rain. Snow
levels will remain steady in the 5000 to 6000 foot level with
additional amounts expected. Temperatures will remain steady as
well with the steady flow from the southwest. Current model
solutions show an end to the moisture on Saturday as a weak ridge
moves in. JL

Saturday Night through Sunday: A ridge over the region will push
East and a trough will move into the area for this period. The
ECMWF is still slower than the GFS by about 12 hours. The impacts
from this trough are mainly mountain rain showers. Some valley
locations could see a stray shower. The temperatures will be on a
cooling trend but still to warm for mountain snow. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: some denser high clouds associated with the weak cold
frontal zone trailing to the south of a weak exiting low pressure
system remains overhead this evening but is making progress
eastward and should clear the region early overnight. A somewhat
more intense baroclinic zone off the coast separating cooler
conditionally unstable air to the northwest has more shortwaves
digging into its west edge and making more inflection points as it
moves east and the far east edge is associated with the radar
returns showing up off the Washington and Oregon coast.
Expectation is this band will work its way into the region as well
spreading thickening clouds from west to east with some light rain
showers near the cascades to Wenatchee to Moses Lake areas near
21Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  60
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20  60
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  40
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  60
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  40  60
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  30  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 192333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...Satellite this afternoon indicates
the forecast area is under a southerly flow regime between a
departing upper level ridge with axis over Montana and an
incoming Gulf of Alaska trough. The deep moisture feed ahead of
this trough which will evolve into a slow moving frontal band is
currently approaching the Pacific Coast. The arrival and passage
of this initial front will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours.

Models are in good agreement in elongating this trough as it
approaches and thus slowing down the eastward progression
tonight and Monday...and then splitting off the southern trough
base dynamic region over the Great basin while ejecting a weakened
northern branch wave through the region Monday evening and into
Tuesday morning.

The ramifications of this evolution will be generally increasing
mid and high clouds tonight...followed by a general increase in
shower chances Monday mainly over the Cascades and western basin
as the slow moving front crawls off the Cascades and acts as a
focusing mechanism for the moisture feed welling up in the
southerly flow. Occasional showers are a near certainty in the
Cascade mountains and the Okanogan highlands where orography will
augment the frontal lift. Over the lowlands such as Wenatchee and
Omak and as far east as Moses lake and Republic showers will be
more spotty and hit-and-miss but none-the-less present. The
eastern half of the forecast area will likely escape with one
more dry and mild but cloudy day.

On Monday night the split occurs causing the northern branch to
become more westerly flow driven and thus allows it to speed up
the progression of the front. This period will bring the greatest
chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area with
the best chance of a tenth or two of rain over the Palouse and
points south as well as the Idaho Panhandle mountains between
midnight and dawn Tuesday...with scattered/occasional showers to
the north of these zones. /Fugazzi

Tuesday: The region will be under a weakly unstable and cooler
post frontal air mass. Best chances for precip will be in the
more favorable upslope areas in the ID Panhandle where westerly
flow will help force some lingering showers. Temperatures will
drop to near normal and will be much cooler across extreme eastern
WA and in the ID Panhandle compared to Monday.

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

Tuesday night through Thursday: A long duration atmospheric river
event is expected at the heart of the work week. A plume of
moisture with tropical Connections will be oriented at the
Northwest. This plume of moisture will be drawn up from between
170W to 180W longitude and 25N to 30N latitude. Current satellite
imagery shows active convection occurring in this portion of the
sub- tropics this afternoon. This convection is lofting a
considerable amount of moisture into the atmosphere, which will be
entrained into the westerlies and ride the Polar Jet stream. This
will also include moisture from Hurricane Ana that is currently
impacting the Hawaiian Islands. P-wats with the moisture plume
will be around 1.25 inches as it impacts western WA beginning
Tuesday night. This will be roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
higher than what is typically observed this time of the year.

There is still some model uncertainty with the shortwaves that
rotate in around a deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. A moderate to strong jet streak of around 165 kts
will be directed toward the Northwest. This will result in good
jet dynamics acting as a forcing mechanism. The topography will
also play a major role in location and intensity of the precip.
Strong westerly to southwesterly flow at low to mid levels will
result in the bulk of this moisture falling on the windward slopes
of the Cascade Mtns. This will result in heavy precip across the
Cascade crest. Conditions look to be wet along the lee side of the
Cascade Mtns as well. Winds at 850 mbs do indicate a southerly to
southeasterly component, which will result in some upslope flow
across these areas as well. Other favorable locations for
moderate to heavy precip will be across the northern mtns in
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Precip is expected to hold off
in the Panhandle until Wednesday, but will continue to be wet
through at least Thursday.

* Rain: Amounts will vary considerable across the region. The
  East Slopes of the Cascade Mtns will see a range of 0.75 inches
  to over 3 inches at the Cascade crest. A secondary maximum for
  rainfall will be across the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
  Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches possible. The Central
  Panhandle Mtns will likely see moderate to heavy rains as well
  with up to an inch or so expected. Confidence is a bit lower in
  this area as models differ on how fast to push across the cold
  front. If there is a slower progression of the cold front, then
  the Central Panhandle Mtns will see more rainfall than
  forecasted. The greater basin will see amounts generally between
  0.25 and 0.75 inches.

* Potential Flooding Impacts: There will be a concern for localized
  flooding, mainly across the East Slopes of the Northern
  Cascades. This will be of special concern on recent burn scars
  with mud and/or debris flows possible. Rainfall intensity should
  not be high enough for flash flooding, but will need to be
  monitored during the event. Considering that this will be the
  first significant rainfall for the season, most other areas will
  see a lower risk for flooding concerns.

* Snow: High mountain snowfall is expected across the Cascade
  Mtns with snow levels at around 6,000 feet. These snow levels
  may start out a bit higher at the beginning of the event, but
  will drop through Thursday. Snowfall amounts of over a foot will
  be possible above the 6,000 foot level.

* Temperatures: Mild overnight low temperatures are expected
  during this period; however, temperatures will not warm much during
  the day with highs near normal in the 50s to low 60s. /SVH

Thursday Night thru Saturday: A continuation of the moist flow
with a series of waves in southwest flow is expected for the first part
of this period. The threat of mud/debris flows will remain as the
burn scar areas could possibly receive additional rain. Snow
levels will remain steady in the 5000 to 6000 foot level with
additional amounts expected. Temperatures will remain steady as
well with the steady flow from the southwest. Current model
solutions show an end to the moisture on Saturday as a weak ridge
moves in. JL

Saturday Night through Sunday: A ridge over the region will push
East and a trough will move into the area for this period. The
ECMWF is still slower than the GFS by about 12 hours. The impacts
from this trough are mainly mountain rain showers. Some valley
locations could see a stray shower. The temperatures will be on a
cooling trend but still to warm for mountain snow. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: some denser high clouds associated with the weak cold
frontal zone trailing to the south of a weak exiting low pressure
system remains overhead this evening but is making progress
eastward and should clear the region early overnight. A somewhat
more intense baroclinic zone off the coast separating cooler
conditionally unstable air to the northwest has more shortwaves
digging into its west edge and making more inflection points as it
moves east and the far east edge is associated with the radar
returns showing up off the Washington and Oregon coast.
Expectation is this band will work its way into the region as well
spreading thickening clouds from west to east with some light rain
showers near the cascades to Wenatchee to Moses Lake areas near
21Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  60
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20  60
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  40
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  60
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  40  60
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  30  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 192333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...Satellite this afternoon indicates
the forecast area is under a southerly flow regime between a
departing upper level ridge with axis over Montana and an
incoming Gulf of Alaska trough. The deep moisture feed ahead of
this trough which will evolve into a slow moving frontal band is
currently approaching the Pacific Coast. The arrival and passage
of this initial front will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours.

Models are in good agreement in elongating this trough as it
approaches and thus slowing down the eastward progression
tonight and Monday...and then splitting off the southern trough
base dynamic region over the Great basin while ejecting a weakened
northern branch wave through the region Monday evening and into
Tuesday morning.

The ramifications of this evolution will be generally increasing
mid and high clouds tonight...followed by a general increase in
shower chances Monday mainly over the Cascades and western basin
as the slow moving front crawls off the Cascades and acts as a
focusing mechanism for the moisture feed welling up in the
southerly flow. Occasional showers are a near certainty in the
Cascade mountains and the Okanogan highlands where orography will
augment the frontal lift. Over the lowlands such as Wenatchee and
Omak and as far east as Moses lake and Republic showers will be
more spotty and hit-and-miss but none-the-less present. The
eastern half of the forecast area will likely escape with one
more dry and mild but cloudy day.

On Monday night the split occurs causing the northern branch to
become more westerly flow driven and thus allows it to speed up
the progression of the front. This period will bring the greatest
chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area with
the best chance of a tenth or two of rain over the Palouse and
points south as well as the Idaho Panhandle mountains between
midnight and dawn Tuesday...with scattered/occasional showers to
the north of these zones. /Fugazzi

Tuesday: The region will be under a weakly unstable and cooler
post frontal air mass. Best chances for precip will be in the
more favorable upslope areas in the ID Panhandle where westerly
flow will help force some lingering showers. Temperatures will
drop to near normal and will be much cooler across extreme eastern
WA and in the ID Panhandle compared to Monday.

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

Tuesday night through Thursday: A long duration atmospheric river
event is expected at the heart of the work week. A plume of
moisture with tropical Connections will be oriented at the
Northwest. This plume of moisture will be drawn up from between
170W to 180W longitude and 25N to 30N latitude. Current satellite
imagery shows active convection occurring in this portion of the
sub- tropics this afternoon. This convection is lofting a
considerable amount of moisture into the atmosphere, which will be
entrained into the westerlies and ride the Polar Jet stream. This
will also include moisture from Hurricane Ana that is currently
impacting the Hawaiian Islands. P-wats with the moisture plume
will be around 1.25 inches as it impacts western WA beginning
Tuesday night. This will be roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
higher than what is typically observed this time of the year.

There is still some model uncertainty with the shortwaves that
rotate in around a deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. A moderate to strong jet streak of around 165 kts
will be directed toward the Northwest. This will result in good
jet dynamics acting as a forcing mechanism. The topography will
also play a major role in location and intensity of the precip.
Strong westerly to southwesterly flow at low to mid levels will
result in the bulk of this moisture falling on the windward slopes
of the Cascade Mtns. This will result in heavy precip across the
Cascade crest. Conditions look to be wet along the lee side of the
Cascade Mtns as well. Winds at 850 mbs do indicate a southerly to
southeasterly component, which will result in some upslope flow
across these areas as well. Other favorable locations for
moderate to heavy precip will be across the northern mtns in
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Precip is expected to hold off
in the Panhandle until Wednesday, but will continue to be wet
through at least Thursday.

* Rain: Amounts will vary considerable across the region. The
  East Slopes of the Cascade Mtns will see a range of 0.75 inches
  to over 3 inches at the Cascade crest. A secondary maximum for
  rainfall will be across the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
  Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches possible. The Central
  Panhandle Mtns will likely see moderate to heavy rains as well
  with up to an inch or so expected. Confidence is a bit lower in
  this area as models differ on how fast to push across the cold
  front. If there is a slower progression of the cold front, then
  the Central Panhandle Mtns will see more rainfall than
  forecasted. The greater basin will see amounts generally between
  0.25 and 0.75 inches.

* Potential Flooding Impacts: There will be a concern for localized
  flooding, mainly across the East Slopes of the Northern
  Cascades. This will be of special concern on recent burn scars
  with mud and/or debris flows possible. Rainfall intensity should
  not be high enough for flash flooding, but will need to be
  monitored during the event. Considering that this will be the
  first significant rainfall for the season, most other areas will
  see a lower risk for flooding concerns.

* Snow: High mountain snowfall is expected across the Cascade
  Mtns with snow levels at around 6,000 feet. These snow levels
  may start out a bit higher at the beginning of the event, but
  will drop through Thursday. Snowfall amounts of over a foot will
  be possible above the 6,000 foot level.

* Temperatures: Mild overnight low temperatures are expected
  during this period; however, temperatures will not warm much during
  the day with highs near normal in the 50s to low 60s. /SVH

Thursday Night thru Saturday: A continuation of the moist flow
with a series of waves in southwest flow is expected for the first part
of this period. The threat of mud/debris flows will remain as the
burn scar areas could possibly receive additional rain. Snow
levels will remain steady in the 5000 to 6000 foot level with
additional amounts expected. Temperatures will remain steady as
well with the steady flow from the southwest. Current model
solutions show an end to the moisture on Saturday as a weak ridge
moves in. JL

Saturday Night through Sunday: A ridge over the region will push
East and a trough will move into the area for this period. The
ECMWF is still slower than the GFS by about 12 hours. The impacts
from this trough are mainly mountain rain showers. Some valley
locations could see a stray shower. The temperatures will be on a
cooling trend but still to warm for mountain snow. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: some denser high clouds associated with the weak cold
frontal zone trailing to the south of a weak exiting low pressure
system remains overhead this evening but is making progress
eastward and should clear the region early overnight. A somewhat
more intense baroclinic zone off the coast separating cooler
conditionally unstable air to the northwest has more shortwaves
digging into its west edge and making more inflection points as it
moves east and the far east edge is associated with the radar
returns showing up off the Washington and Oregon coast.
Expectation is this band will work its way into the region as well
spreading thickening clouds from west to east with some light rain
showers near the cascades to Wenatchee to Moses Lake areas near
21Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  60
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20  60
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  40
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  60
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  40  60
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  30  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 192333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...Satellite this afternoon indicates
the forecast area is under a southerly flow regime between a
departing upper level ridge with axis over Montana and an
incoming Gulf of Alaska trough. The deep moisture feed ahead of
this trough which will evolve into a slow moving frontal band is
currently approaching the Pacific Coast. The arrival and passage
of this initial front will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours.

Models are in good agreement in elongating this trough as it
approaches and thus slowing down the eastward progression
tonight and Monday...and then splitting off the southern trough
base dynamic region over the Great basin while ejecting a weakened
northern branch wave through the region Monday evening and into
Tuesday morning.

The ramifications of this evolution will be generally increasing
mid and high clouds tonight...followed by a general increase in
shower chances Monday mainly over the Cascades and western basin
as the slow moving front crawls off the Cascades and acts as a
focusing mechanism for the moisture feed welling up in the
southerly flow. Occasional showers are a near certainty in the
Cascade mountains and the Okanogan highlands where orography will
augment the frontal lift. Over the lowlands such as Wenatchee and
Omak and as far east as Moses lake and Republic showers will be
more spotty and hit-and-miss but none-the-less present. The
eastern half of the forecast area will likely escape with one
more dry and mild but cloudy day.

On Monday night the split occurs causing the northern branch to
become more westerly flow driven and thus allows it to speed up
the progression of the front. This period will bring the greatest
chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area with
the best chance of a tenth or two of rain over the Palouse and
points south as well as the Idaho Panhandle mountains between
midnight and dawn Tuesday...with scattered/occasional showers to
the north of these zones. /Fugazzi

Tuesday: The region will be under a weakly unstable and cooler
post frontal air mass. Best chances for precip will be in the
more favorable upslope areas in the ID Panhandle where westerly
flow will help force some lingering showers. Temperatures will
drop to near normal and will be much cooler across extreme eastern
WA and in the ID Panhandle compared to Monday.

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

Tuesday night through Thursday: A long duration atmospheric river
event is expected at the heart of the work week. A plume of
moisture with tropical Connections will be oriented at the
Northwest. This plume of moisture will be drawn up from between
170W to 180W longitude and 25N to 30N latitude. Current satellite
imagery shows active convection occurring in this portion of the
sub- tropics this afternoon. This convection is lofting a
considerable amount of moisture into the atmosphere, which will be
entrained into the westerlies and ride the Polar Jet stream. This
will also include moisture from Hurricane Ana that is currently
impacting the Hawaiian Islands. P-wats with the moisture plume
will be around 1.25 inches as it impacts western WA beginning
Tuesday night. This will be roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
higher than what is typically observed this time of the year.

There is still some model uncertainty with the shortwaves that
rotate in around a deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. A moderate to strong jet streak of around 165 kts
will be directed toward the Northwest. This will result in good
jet dynamics acting as a forcing mechanism. The topography will
also play a major role in location and intensity of the precip.
Strong westerly to southwesterly flow at low to mid levels will
result in the bulk of this moisture falling on the windward slopes
of the Cascade Mtns. This will result in heavy precip across the
Cascade crest. Conditions look to be wet along the lee side of the
Cascade Mtns as well. Winds at 850 mbs do indicate a southerly to
southeasterly component, which will result in some upslope flow
across these areas as well. Other favorable locations for
moderate to heavy precip will be across the northern mtns in
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Precip is expected to hold off
in the Panhandle until Wednesday, but will continue to be wet
through at least Thursday.

* Rain: Amounts will vary considerable across the region. The
  East Slopes of the Cascade Mtns will see a range of 0.75 inches
  to over 3 inches at the Cascade crest. A secondary maximum for
  rainfall will be across the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
  Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches possible. The Central
  Panhandle Mtns will likely see moderate to heavy rains as well
  with up to an inch or so expected. Confidence is a bit lower in
  this area as models differ on how fast to push across the cold
  front. If there is a slower progression of the cold front, then
  the Central Panhandle Mtns will see more rainfall than
  forecasted. The greater basin will see amounts generally between
  0.25 and 0.75 inches.

* Potential Flooding Impacts: There will be a concern for localized
  flooding, mainly across the East Slopes of the Northern
  Cascades. This will be of special concern on recent burn scars
  with mud and/or debris flows possible. Rainfall intensity should
  not be high enough for flash flooding, but will need to be
  monitored during the event. Considering that this will be the
  first significant rainfall for the season, most other areas will
  see a lower risk for flooding concerns.

* Snow: High mountain snowfall is expected across the Cascade
  Mtns with snow levels at around 6,000 feet. These snow levels
  may start out a bit higher at the beginning of the event, but
  will drop through Thursday. Snowfall amounts of over a foot will
  be possible above the 6,000 foot level.

* Temperatures: Mild overnight low temperatures are expected
  during this period; however, temperatures will not warm much during
  the day with highs near normal in the 50s to low 60s. /SVH

Thursday Night thru Saturday: A continuation of the moist flow
with a series of waves in southwest flow is expected for the first part
of this period. The threat of mud/debris flows will remain as the
burn scar areas could possibly receive additional rain. Snow
levels will remain steady in the 5000 to 6000 foot level with
additional amounts expected. Temperatures will remain steady as
well with the steady flow from the southwest. Current model
solutions show an end to the moisture on Saturday as a weak ridge
moves in. JL

Saturday Night through Sunday: A ridge over the region will push
East and a trough will move into the area for this period. The
ECMWF is still slower than the GFS by about 12 hours. The impacts
from this trough are mainly mountain rain showers. Some valley
locations could see a stray shower. The temperatures will be on a
cooling trend but still to warm for mountain snow. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: some denser high clouds associated with the weak cold
frontal zone trailing to the south of a weak exiting low pressure
system remains overhead this evening but is making progress
eastward and should clear the region early overnight. A somewhat
more intense baroclinic zone off the coast separating cooler
conditionally unstable air to the northwest has more shortwaves
digging into its west edge and making more inflection points as it
moves east and the far east edge is associated with the radar
returns showing up off the Washington and Oregon coast.
Expectation is this band will work its way into the region as well
spreading thickening clouds from west to east with some light rain
showers near the cascades to Wenatchee to Moses Lake areas near
21Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  60
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20  60
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  40
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  60
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  40  60
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  30  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 192146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
246 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...Satellite this afternoon indicates
the forecast area is under a southerly flow regime between a
departing upper level ridge with axis over Montana and an
incoming Gulf of Alaska trough. The deep moisture feed ahead of
this trough which will evolve into a slow moving frontal band is
currently approaching the Pacific Coast. The arrival and passage
of this initial front will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours.

Models are in good agreement in elongating this trough as it
approaches and thus slowing down the eastward progression
tonight and Monday...and then splitting off the southern trough
base dynamic region over the Great basin while ejecting a weakened
northern branch wave through the region Monday evening and into
Tuesday morning.

The ramifications of this evolution will be generally increasing
mid and high clouds tonight...followed by a general increase in
shower chances Monday mainly over the Cascades and western basin
as the slow moving front crawls off the Cascades and acts as a
focusing mechanism for the moisture feed welling up in the
southerly flow. Occasional showers are a near certainty in the
Cascade mountains and the Okanogan highlands where orography will
augment the frontal lift. Over the lowlands such as Wenatchee and
Omak and as far east as Moses lake and Republic showers will be
more spotty and hit-and-miss but none-the-less present. The
eastern half of the forecast area will likely escape with one
more dry and mild but cloudy day.

On Monday night the split occurs causing the northern branch to
become more westerly flow driven and thus allows it to speed up
the progression of the front. This period will bring the greatest
chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area with
the best chance of a tenth or two of rain over the Palouse and
points south as well as the Idaho Panhandle mountains between
midnight and dawn Tuesday...with scattered/occasional showers to
the north of these zones. /Fugazzi

Tuesday: The region will be under a weakly unstable and cooler
post frontal air mass. Best chances for precip will be in the
more favorable upslope areas in the ID Panhandle where westerly
flow will help force some lingering showers. Temperatures will
drop to near normal and will be much cooler across extreme eastern
WA and in the ID Panhandle compared to Monday.

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

Tuesday night through Thursday: A long duration atmospheric river
event is expected at the heart of the work week. A plume of
moisture with tropical Connections will be oriented at the
Northwest. This plume of moisture will be drawn up from between
170W to 180W longitude and 25N to 30N latitude. Current satellite
imagery shows active convection occurring in this portion of the
sub- tropics this afternoon. This convection is lofting a
considerable amount of moisture into the atmosphere, which will be
entrained into the westerlies and ride the Polar Jet stream. This
will also include moisture from Hurricane Ana that is currently
impacting the Hawaiian Islands. P-wats with the moisture plume
will be around 1.25 inches as it impacts western WA beginning
Tuesday night. This will be roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
higher than what is typically observed this time of the year.

There is still some model uncertainty with the shortwaves that
rotate in around a deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. A moderate to strong jet streak of around 165 kts
will be directed toward the Northwest. This will result in good
jet dynamics acting as a forcing mechanism. The topography will
also play a major role in location and intensity of the precip.
Strong westerly to southwesterly flow at low to mid levels will
result in the bulk of this moisture falling on the windward slopes
of the Cascade Mtns. This will result in heavy precip across the
Cascade crest. Conditions look to be wet along the lee side of the
Cascade Mtns as well. Winds at 850 mbs do indicate a southerly to
southeasterly component, which will result in some upslope flow
across these areas as well. Other favorable locations for
moderate to heavy precip will be across the northern mtns in
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Precip is expected to hold off
in the Panhandle until Wednesday, but will continue to be wet
through at least Thursday.

* Rain: Amounts will vary considerable across the region. The
  East Slopes of the Cascade Mtns will see a range of 0.75 inches
  to over 3 inches at the Cascade crest. A secondary maximum for
  rainfall will be across the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
  Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches possible. The Central
  Panhandle Mtns will likely see moderate to heavy rains as well
  with up to an inch or so expected. Confidence is a bit lower in
  this area as models differ on how fast to push across the cold
  front. If there is a slower progression of the cold front, then
  the Central Panhandle Mtns will see more rainfall than
  forecasted. The greater basin will see amounts generally between
  0.25 and 0.75 inches.

* Potential Flooding Impacts: There will be a concern for localized
  flooding, mainly across the East Slopes of the Northern
  Cascades. This will be of special concern on recent burn scars
  with mud and/or debris flows possible. Rainfall intensity should
  not be high enough for flash flooding, but will need to be
  monitored during the event. Considering that this will be the
  first significant rainfall for the season, most other areas will
  see a lower risk for flooding concerns.

* Snow: High mountain snowfall is expected across the Cascade
  Mtns with snow levels at around 6,000 feet. These snow levels
  may start out a bit higher at the beginning of the event, but
  will drop through Thursday. Snowfall amounts of over a foot will
  be possible above the 6,000 foot level.

* Temperatures: Mild overnight low temperatures are expected
  during this period; however, temperatures will not warm much during
  the day with highs near normal in the 50s to low 60s. /SVH

Thursday Night thru Saturday: A continuation of the moist flow
with a series of waves in southwest flow is expected for the first part
of this period. The threat of mud/debris flows will remain as the
burn scar areas could possibly receive additional rain. Snow
levels will remain steady in the 5000 to 6000 foot level with
additional amounts expected. Temperatures will remain steady as
well with the steady flow from the southwest. Current model
solutions show an end to the moisture on Saturday as a weak ridge
moves in. JL

Saturday Night through Sunday: A ridge over the region will push
East and a trough will move into the area for this period. The
ECMWF is still slower than the GFS by about 12 hours. The impacts
from this trough are mainly mountain rain showers. Some valley
locations could see a stray shower. The temperatures will be on a
cooling trend but still to warm for mountain snow. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Morning fog and stratus layers are eroding at the KGEG
TAf sites and KEAT and should be eliminated by 19Z. Stratus and
fog will linger in the valleys north and east of the basin through
20-21Z and then break up. VFR conditions are expected through 18Z
Monday at all TAF sites with the low level air mass drying out
today and only variable high cloud layers transiting the region.
MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  60
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20  60
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  40
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  60
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  40  60
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  30  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 192146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
246 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...Satellite this afternoon indicates
the forecast area is under a southerly flow regime between a
departing upper level ridge with axis over Montana and an
incoming Gulf of Alaska trough. The deep moisture feed ahead of
this trough which will evolve into a slow moving frontal band is
currently approaching the Pacific Coast. The arrival and passage
of this initial front will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours.

Models are in good agreement in elongating this trough as it
approaches and thus slowing down the eastward progression
tonight and Monday...and then splitting off the southern trough
base dynamic region over the Great basin while ejecting a weakened
northern branch wave through the region Monday evening and into
Tuesday morning.

The ramifications of this evolution will be generally increasing
mid and high clouds tonight...followed by a general increase in
shower chances Monday mainly over the Cascades and western basin
as the slow moving front crawls off the Cascades and acts as a
focusing mechanism for the moisture feed welling up in the
southerly flow. Occasional showers are a near certainty in the
Cascade mountains and the Okanogan highlands where orography will
augment the frontal lift. Over the lowlands such as Wenatchee and
Omak and as far east as Moses lake and Republic showers will be
more spotty and hit-and-miss but none-the-less present. The
eastern half of the forecast area will likely escape with one
more dry and mild but cloudy day.

On Monday night the split occurs causing the northern branch to
become more westerly flow driven and thus allows it to speed up
the progression of the front. This period will bring the greatest
chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area with
the best chance of a tenth or two of rain over the Palouse and
points south as well as the Idaho Panhandle mountains between
midnight and dawn Tuesday...with scattered/occasional showers to
the north of these zones. /Fugazzi

Tuesday: The region will be under a weakly unstable and cooler
post frontal air mass. Best chances for precip will be in the
more favorable upslope areas in the ID Panhandle where westerly
flow will help force some lingering showers. Temperatures will
drop to near normal and will be much cooler across extreme eastern
WA and in the ID Panhandle compared to Monday.

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

Tuesday night through Thursday: A long duration atmospheric river
event is expected at the heart of the work week. A plume of
moisture with tropical Connections will be oriented at the
Northwest. This plume of moisture will be drawn up from between
170W to 180W longitude and 25N to 30N latitude. Current satellite
imagery shows active convection occurring in this portion of the
sub- tropics this afternoon. This convection is lofting a
considerable amount of moisture into the atmosphere, which will be
entrained into the westerlies and ride the Polar Jet stream. This
will also include moisture from Hurricane Ana that is currently
impacting the Hawaiian Islands. P-wats with the moisture plume
will be around 1.25 inches as it impacts western WA beginning
Tuesday night. This will be roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
higher than what is typically observed this time of the year.

There is still some model uncertainty with the shortwaves that
rotate in around a deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. A moderate to strong jet streak of around 165 kts
will be directed toward the Northwest. This will result in good
jet dynamics acting as a forcing mechanism. The topography will
also play a major role in location and intensity of the precip.
Strong westerly to southwesterly flow at low to mid levels will
result in the bulk of this moisture falling on the windward slopes
of the Cascade Mtns. This will result in heavy precip across the
Cascade crest. Conditions look to be wet along the lee side of the
Cascade Mtns as well. Winds at 850 mbs do indicate a southerly to
southeasterly component, which will result in some upslope flow
across these areas as well. Other favorable locations for
moderate to heavy precip will be across the northern mtns in
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Precip is expected to hold off
in the Panhandle until Wednesday, but will continue to be wet
through at least Thursday.

* Rain: Amounts will vary considerable across the region. The
  East Slopes of the Cascade Mtns will see a range of 0.75 inches
  to over 3 inches at the Cascade crest. A secondary maximum for
  rainfall will be across the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
  Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches possible. The Central
  Panhandle Mtns will likely see moderate to heavy rains as well
  with up to an inch or so expected. Confidence is a bit lower in
  this area as models differ on how fast to push across the cold
  front. If there is a slower progression of the cold front, then
  the Central Panhandle Mtns will see more rainfall than
  forecasted. The greater basin will see amounts generally between
  0.25 and 0.75 inches.

* Potential Flooding Impacts: There will be a concern for localized
  flooding, mainly across the East Slopes of the Northern
  Cascades. This will be of special concern on recent burn scars
  with mud and/or debris flows possible. Rainfall intensity should
  not be high enough for flash flooding, but will need to be
  monitored during the event. Considering that this will be the
  first significant rainfall for the season, most other areas will
  see a lower risk for flooding concerns.

* Snow: High mountain snowfall is expected across the Cascade
  Mtns with snow levels at around 6,000 feet. These snow levels
  may start out a bit higher at the beginning of the event, but
  will drop through Thursday. Snowfall amounts of over a foot will
  be possible above the 6,000 foot level.

* Temperatures: Mild overnight low temperatures are expected
  during this period; however, temperatures will not warm much during
  the day with highs near normal in the 50s to low 60s. /SVH

Thursday Night thru Saturday: A continuation of the moist flow
with a series of waves in southwest flow is expected for the first part
of this period. The threat of mud/debris flows will remain as the
burn scar areas could possibly receive additional rain. Snow
levels will remain steady in the 5000 to 6000 foot level with
additional amounts expected. Temperatures will remain steady as
well with the steady flow from the southwest. Current model
solutions show an end to the moisture on Saturday as a weak ridge
moves in. JL

Saturday Night through Sunday: A ridge over the region will push
East and a trough will move into the area for this period. The
ECMWF is still slower than the GFS by about 12 hours. The impacts
from this trough are mainly mountain rain showers. Some valley
locations could see a stray shower. The temperatures will be on a
cooling trend but still to warm for mountain snow. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Morning fog and stratus layers are eroding at the KGEG
TAf sites and KEAT and should be eliminated by 19Z. Stratus and
fog will linger in the valleys north and east of the basin through
20-21Z and then break up. VFR conditions are expected through 18Z
Monday at all TAF sites with the low level air mass drying out
today and only variable high cloud layers transiting the region.
MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  60
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20  60
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  40
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  60
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  40  60
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  30  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 192145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures Monday will continue to run be well above average
with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will
be on the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy
and unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...Satellite this afternoon indicates
the forecast area is under a southerly flow regime between a
departing upper level ridge with axis over Montana and an
incoming Gulf of Alaska trough. The deep moisture feed ahead of
this trough which will evolve into a slow moving frontal band is
currently approaching the Pacific Coast. The arrival and passage
of this initial front will dominate the next 24 to 36 hours.

Models are in good agreement in elongating this trough as it
approaches and thus slowing down the eastward progression
tonight and Monday...and then splitting off the southern trough
base dynamic region over the Great basin while ejecting a weakened
northern branch wave through the region Monday evening and into
Tuesday morning.

The ramifications of this evolution will be generally increasing
mid and high clouds tonight...followed by a general increase in
shower chances Monday mainly over the Cascades and western basin
as the slow moving front crawls off the Cascades and acts as a
focusing mechanism for the moisture feed welling up in the
southerly flow. Occasional showers are a near certainty in the
Cascade mountains and the Okanogan highlands where orography will
augment the frontal lift. Over the lowlands such as Wenatchee and
Omak and as far east as Moses lake and Republic showers will be
more spotty and hit-and-miss but none-the-less present. The
eastern half of the forecast area will likely escape with one
more dry and mild but cloudy day.

On Monday night the split occurs causing the northern branch to
become more westerly flow driven and thus allows it to speed up
the progression of the front. This period will bring the greatest
chance of showers to the eastern half of the forecast area with
the best chance of a tenth or two of rain over the Palouse and
points south as well as the Idaho Panhandle mountains between
midnight and dawn Tuesday...with scattered/occasional showers to
the north of these zones. /Fugazzi

Tuesday: The region will be under a weakly unstable and cooler
post frontal air mass. Best chances for precip will be in the
more favorable upslope areas in the ID Panhandle where westerly
flow will help force some lingering showers. Temperatures will
drop to near normal and will be much cooler across extreme eastern
WA and in the ID Panhandle compared to Monday.

...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MID WEEK...

Tuesday night through Thursday: A long duration atmospheric river
event is expected at the heart of the work week. A plume of
moisture with tropical Connections will be oriented at the
Northwest. This plume of moisture will be drawn up from between
170W to 180W longitude and 25N to 30N latitude. Current satellite
imagery shows active convection occurring in this portion of the
sub- tropics this afternoon. This convection is lofting a
considerable amount of moisture into the atmosphere, which will be
entrained into the westerlies and ride the Polar Jet stream. This
will also include moisture from Hurricane Ana that is currently
impacting the Hawaiian Islands. P-wats with the moisture plume
will be around 1.25 inches as it impacts western WA beginning
Tuesday night. This will be roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
higher than what is typically observed this time of the year.

There is still some model uncertainty with the shortwaves that
rotate in around a deep upper level low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska. A moderate to strong jet streak of around 165 kts
will be directed toward the Northwest. This will result in good
jet dynamics acting as a forcing mechanism. The topography will
also play a major role in location and intensity of the precip.
Strong westerly to southwesterly flow at low to mid levels will
result in the bulk of this moisture falling on the windward slopes
of the Cascade Mtns. This will result in heavy precip across the
Cascade crest. Conditions look to be wet along the lee side of the
Cascade Mtns as well. Winds at 850 mbs do indicate a southerly to
southeasterly component, which will result in some upslope flow
across these areas as well. Other favorable locations for
moderate to heavy precip will be across the northern mtns in
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Precip is expected to hold off
in the Panhandle until Wednesday, but will continue to be wet
through at least Thursday.

Rain: Amounts will vary considerable across the region. The East
Slopes of the Cascade Mtns will see a range of 0.75 inches to
over 3 inches at the Cascade crest. A secondary maximum for
rainfall will be across the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches possible. The Central
Panhandle Mtns will likely see moderate to heavy rains as well
with up to an inch or so expected. Confidence is a bit lower in
this area as models differ on how fast to push across the cold
front. If there is a slower progression of the cold front, then
the Central Panhandle Mtns will see more rainfall than
forecasted. The greater basin will see amounts generally between
0.25 and 0.75 inches.

Potential Flooding Impacts: There will be a concern for localized
flooding, mainly across the East Slopes of the Northern Cascades.
This will be of special concern on recent burn scars with mud
and/or debris flows possible. Rainfall intensity should not be
high enough for flash flooding, but will need to be monitored
during the event. Considering that this will be the first
significant rainfall for the season, most other areas will see a
lower risk for flooding concerns.

Snow: High mountain snowfall is expected across the Cascade Mtns
with snow levels at around 6,000 feet. These snow levels may start
out a bit higher at the beginning of the event, but will drop
through Thursday. Snowfall amounts of over a foot will be possible
above the 6,000 foot level.

Temperatures: Mild overnight low temperatures are expected during
this period; however, temperatures will not warm much during the
day with highs near normal in the 50s to low 60s. /SVH

Thursday Night thru Saturday: A continuation of the moist flow
with a series of waves in southwest flow is expected for the first part
of this period. The threat of mud/debris flows will remain as the
burn scar areas could possibly receive additional rain. Snow
levels will remain steady in the 5000 to 6000 foot level with
additional amounts expected. Temperatures will remain steady as
well with the steady flow from the southwest. Current model
solutions show an end to the moisture on Saturday as a weak ridge
moves in. JL

Saturday Night through Sunday: A ridge over the region will push
East and a trough will move into the area for this period. The
ECMWF is still slower than the GFS by about 12 hours. The impacts
from this trough are mainly mountain rain showers. Some valley
locations could see a stray shower. The temperatures will be on a
cooling trend but still to warm for mountain snow. Highs are
expected to be in the 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Morning fog and stratus layers are eroding at the KGEG
TAf sites and KEAT and should be eliminated by 19Z. Stratus and
fog will linger in the valleys north and east of the basin through
20-21Z and then break up. VFR conditions are expected through 18Z
Monday at all TAF sites with the low level air mass drying out
today and only variable high cloud layers transiting the region.
MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  67  47  57  43  57 /   0  10  50  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  44  68  44  57  41  57 /   0   0  50  40  10  60
Pullman        46  67  44  57  42  60 /   0   0  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       48  74  50  62  43  65 /   0   0  70  60  10  10
Colville       43  66  45  57  42  56 /   0  20  50  30  20 100
Sandpoint      40  67  43  55  39  54 /   0  10  50  50  20  60
Kellogg        46  67  43  51  39  54 /   0   0  70  70  20  40
Moses Lake     45  68  47  63  45  61 /   0  20  20  10  20  60
Wenatchee      50  65  47  63  46  57 /  10  40  20  10  40  60
Omak           45  64  44  61  43  55 /  10  40  20  10  30  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 191728
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1027 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be well above average with
afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will be on
the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Skies are expected to be mostly sunny by this afternoon
over most of the Inland Northwest. The high amplitude upper level
ridge and its mid-level subsidence will produce unusually warm
temperatures aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will feel more
like late September than late October. Upper 60s to mid 70s should
be common.

Monday: Temperatures will be warm once again on Monday. A slow
moving frontal system approaching the coast will spread mid and
high clouds over the region during the day. The increase in
southerly wind in the afternoon should provide the low level
mixing necessary to counteract the loss of sunshine. The GFS and
ECMWF spread rain over the Cascades by the afternoon which may
temper warming in places like Leavenworth, Mazama, and Wenatchee
potentially keeping these areas in the 60s. However, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph over the Palouse, West Plains and Upper Columbia
Basin will likely provide enough mechanical mixing to push
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s in places like
Ritzville, Pullman and Spokane. Precipitation chances Monday night
are tough to nail down. The NAM and GFS shear the front apart
Monday night and produce little measurable rainfall east of the
Cascades. The ECMWF keeps the front more in-tact through Eastern
Washington and northern Idaho producing more light rainfall
through the night. The wetter ECMWF is more in line with our
previous forecast so we have continued with this wetter trend. The
front that moved through Friday night was similar and produced
more light rain than expected, so the wetter ECMWF may be on the
right track. /GKoch

Tuesday...A short wave trough will track into the Idaho Panhandle
Tuesday morning. A cooler and showery day is expected for the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle while a weak short ridge
noses into Central Washington by the afternoon with generally dry
conditions expected.

Wednesday through Thursday night...A much wetter pattern will
develop. The ECMWF has trended towards the wetter GFS/Canadian
models. A moist atmospheric river will become aimed at the
Washington and north Oregon Cascades extending into Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. In addition...850mb winds out
of the south-southwest at 30-40 kts will provide strong upslope
flow into the northern mountains where rain is a given and have
increased POP`s further Wednesday and Thursday. GFS and ECMWF
indicate 2 day rainfall totals of 2-3 inches along the Cascade
crest, 1-2 inches for the northern mountains. Burn scar areas will
have to be monitored with the expected rain. Rain is also likely
for the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area. Areas further south around
Pullman and Lewiston are more uncertain. A combination of these
areas possibly being on the southern fringes of the atmospheric
river and strong downsloping off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains
should limit precipitation chances especially in Lewiston-
Clarkston Valley. JW

Friday through Sunday night: Moist southwest flow will be over the
Inland Northwest on Friday, and it remains to be seen how long
this flow pattern can remain. Models are in agreement in this
being over the region on Friday, but just like over the last few
days, there is disagreement on the forecast for the weekend. The
models have been having a hard time in forecasting how much
influence a large ridge of high pressure will have over the Inland
Northwest. Slowly but surely, the influence on the models has
become less and less. The GFS has stuck to its guns on keeping the
ridge out of the region, keeping a more unsettled weather regime.
The other models are slowly but surely coming into that idea as
well, although some are taking longer than others in letting go.
Precipitation chances were raised all around each day. Did not
want to go full on just yet, but a general increase seemed
prudent.

Temperatures will remain on above average by several degrees,
although temperatures closer to normal will be likely if
widespread cloud cover and rainfall materialize. There is some
indication that some cooler air may make a run at the region later
next week, but that is beyond the time frame of this forecast. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Morning fog and stratus layers are eroding at the KGEG
TAf sites and KEAT and should be eliminated by 19Z. Strtus and fog
will linger in the valleys north and east of the basin through
20-21Z and then break up. VFR conditions are expected through 18Z
Monday at all TAF sites with the low level air mass drying out
today and only variable high cloud layers transiting the region.
MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  47  70  47  57  43 /   0   0  10  40  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  71  44  69  44  56  40 /   0   0   0  40  40  20
Pullman        74  46  74  44  57  42 /   0   0   0  50  40  10
Lewiston       75  48  75  50  61  43 /   0   0   0  60  50  10
Colville       71  43  69  45  59  42 /   0   0  20  50  30  20
Sandpoint      65  40  66  43  54  38 /   0   0  10  40  50  20
Kellogg        68  46  68  43  50  38 /   0   0   0  50  70  20
Moses Lake     71  45  69  47  65  45 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      66  50  66  47  64  46 /   0  10  40  30  10  30
Omak           66  45  65  44  61  43 /   0  10  40  30  10  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 191728
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1027 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be well above average with
afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will be on
the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Skies are expected to be mostly sunny by this afternoon
over most of the Inland Northwest. The high amplitude upper level
ridge and its mid-level subsidence will produce unusually warm
temperatures aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will feel more
like late September than late October. Upper 60s to mid 70s should
be common.

Monday: Temperatures will be warm once again on Monday. A slow
moving frontal system approaching the coast will spread mid and
high clouds over the region during the day. The increase in
southerly wind in the afternoon should provide the low level
mixing necessary to counteract the loss of sunshine. The GFS and
ECMWF spread rain over the Cascades by the afternoon which may
temper warming in places like Leavenworth, Mazama, and Wenatchee
potentially keeping these areas in the 60s. However, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph over the Palouse, West Plains and Upper Columbia
Basin will likely provide enough mechanical mixing to push
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s in places like
Ritzville, Pullman and Spokane. Precipitation chances Monday night
are tough to nail down. The NAM and GFS shear the front apart
Monday night and produce little measurable rainfall east of the
Cascades. The ECMWF keeps the front more in-tact through Eastern
Washington and northern Idaho producing more light rainfall
through the night. The wetter ECMWF is more in line with our
previous forecast so we have continued with this wetter trend. The
front that moved through Friday night was similar and produced
more light rain than expected, so the wetter ECMWF may be on the
right track. /GKoch

Tuesday...A short wave trough will track into the Idaho Panhandle
Tuesday morning. A cooler and showery day is expected for the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle while a weak short ridge
noses into Central Washington by the afternoon with generally dry
conditions expected.

Wednesday through Thursday night...A much wetter pattern will
develop. The ECMWF has trended towards the wetter GFS/Canadian
models. A moist atmospheric river will become aimed at the
Washington and north Oregon Cascades extending into Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. In addition...850mb winds out
of the south-southwest at 30-40 kts will provide strong upslope
flow into the northern mountains where rain is a given and have
increased POP`s further Wednesday and Thursday. GFS and ECMWF
indicate 2 day rainfall totals of 2-3 inches along the Cascade
crest, 1-2 inches for the northern mountains. Burn scar areas will
have to be monitored with the expected rain. Rain is also likely
for the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area. Areas further south around
Pullman and Lewiston are more uncertain. A combination of these
areas possibly being on the southern fringes of the atmospheric
river and strong downsloping off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains
should limit precipitation chances especially in Lewiston-
Clarkston Valley. JW

Friday through Sunday night: Moist southwest flow will be over the
Inland Northwest on Friday, and it remains to be seen how long
this flow pattern can remain. Models are in agreement in this
being over the region on Friday, but just like over the last few
days, there is disagreement on the forecast for the weekend. The
models have been having a hard time in forecasting how much
influence a large ridge of high pressure will have over the Inland
Northwest. Slowly but surely, the influence on the models has
become less and less. The GFS has stuck to its guns on keeping the
ridge out of the region, keeping a more unsettled weather regime.
The other models are slowly but surely coming into that idea as
well, although some are taking longer than others in letting go.
Precipitation chances were raised all around each day. Did not
want to go full on just yet, but a general increase seemed
prudent.

Temperatures will remain on above average by several degrees,
although temperatures closer to normal will be likely if
widespread cloud cover and rainfall materialize. There is some
indication that some cooler air may make a run at the region later
next week, but that is beyond the time frame of this forecast. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Morning fog and stratus layers are eroding at the KGEG
TAf sites and KEAT and should be eliminated by 19Z. Strtus and fog
will linger in the valleys north and east of the basin through
20-21Z and then break up. VFR conditions are expected through 18Z
Monday at all TAF sites with the low level air mass drying out
today and only variable high cloud layers transiting the region.
MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  47  70  47  57  43 /   0   0  10  40  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  71  44  69  44  56  40 /   0   0   0  40  40  20
Pullman        74  46  74  44  57  42 /   0   0   0  50  40  10
Lewiston       75  48  75  50  61  43 /   0   0   0  60  50  10
Colville       71  43  69  45  59  42 /   0   0  20  50  30  20
Sandpoint      65  40  66  43  54  38 /   0   0  10  40  50  20
Kellogg        68  46  68  43  50  38 /   0   0   0  50  70  20
Moses Lake     71  45  69  47  65  45 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      66  50  66  47  64  46 /   0  10  40  30  10  30
Omak           66  45  65  44  61  43 /   0  10  40  30  10  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 191140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be well above average with
afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will be on
the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Skies are expected to be mostly sunny by this afternoon
over most of the Inland Northwest. The high amplitude upper level
ridge and its mid-level subsidence will produce unusually warm
temperatures aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will feel more
like late September than late October. Upper 60s to mid 70s should
be common.

Monday: Temperatures will be warm once again on Monday. A slow
moving frontal system approaching the coast will spread mid and
high clouds over the region during the day. The increase in
southerly wind in the afternoon should provide the low level
mixing necessary to counteract the loss of sunshine. The GFS and
ECMWF spread rain over the Cascades by the afternoon which may
temper warming in places like Leavenworth, Mazama, and Wenatchee
potentially keeping these areas in the 60s. However, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph over the Palouse, West Plains and Upper Columbia
Basin will likely provide enough mechanical mixing to push
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s in places like
Ritzville, Pullman and Spokane. Precipitation chances Monday night
are tough to nail down. The NAM and GFS shear the front apart
Monday night and produce little measurable rainfall east of the
Cascades. The ECMWF keeps the front more in-tact through Eastern
Washington and northern Idaho producing more light rainfall
through the night. The wetter ECMWF is more in line with our
previous forecast so we have continued with this wetter trend. The
front that moved through Friday night was similar and produced
more light rain than expected, so the wetter ECMWF may be on the
right track. /GKoch

Tuesday...A short wave trough will track into the Idaho Panhandle
Tuesday morning. A cooler and showery day is expected for the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle while a weak short ridge
noses into Central Washington by the afternoon with generally dry
conditions expected.

Wednesday through Thursday night...A much wetter pattern will
develop. The ECMWF has trended towards the wetter GFS/Canadian
models. A moist atmospheric river will become aimed at the
Washington and north Oregon Cascades extending into Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. In addition...850mb winds out
of the south-southwest at 30-40 kts will provide strong upslope
flow into the northern mountains where rain is a given and have
increased POP`s further Wednesday and Thursday. GFS and ECMWF
indicate 2 day rainfall totals of 2-3 inches along the Cascade
crest, 1-2 inches for the northern mountains. Burn scar areas will
have to be monitored with the expected rain. Rain is also likely
for the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area. Areas further south around
Pullman and Lewiston are more uncertain. A combination of these
areas possibly being on the southern fringes of the atmospheric
river and strong downsloping off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains
should limit precipitation chances especially in Lewiston-
Clarkston Valley. JW

Friday through Sunday night: Moist southwest flow will be over the
Inland Northwest on Friday, and it remains to be seen how long
this flow pattern can remain. Models are in agreement in this
being over the region on Friday, but just like over the last few
days, there is disagreement on the forecast for the weekend. The
models have been having a hard time in forecasting how much
influence a large ridge of high pressure will have over the Inland
Northwest. Slowly but surely, the influence on the models has
become less and less. The GFS has stuck to its guns on keeping the
ridge out of the region, keeping a more unsettled weather regime.
The other models are slowly but surely coming into that idea as
well, although some are taking longer than others in letting go.
Precipitation chances were raised all around each day. Did not
want to go full on just yet, but a general increase seemed
prudent.

Temperatures will remain on above average by several degrees,
although temperatures closer to normal will be likely if
widespread cloud cover and rainfall materialize. There is some
indication that some cooler air may make a run at the region later
next week, but that is beyond the time frame of this forecast. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: Fog and low stratus will impact aviation at Spokane,
Coeur D`Alene, and Sandpoint this morning. The models don`t do a
particularly good job depicting moist boundary layer processes
like fog which adds to the challenge of forecasting it. Model
soundings suggest that it will be quite dry just above the fog
layer this morning. There is a decent amount of easterly wind just
above the fog layer contributing to some mixing and that should
keep the fog/low cloud layer shallow. The shallow nature of the
fog should allow the morning sun to erode it by 18-19z. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  47  70  47  57  43 /   0   0  10  40  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  71  44  69  44  56  40 /   0   0   0  40  40  20
Pullman        74  46  74  44  57  42 /   0   0   0  50  40  10
Lewiston       75  48  75  50  61  43 /   0   0   0  60  50  10
Colville       71  43  69  45  59  42 /   0   0  20  50  30  20
Sandpoint      65  40  66  43  54  38 /   0   0  10  40  50  20
Kellogg        68  46  68  43  50  38 /   0   0   0  50  70  20
Moses Lake     71  45  69  47  65  45 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      66  50  66  47  64  46 /   0  10  40  30  10  30
Omak           66  45  65  44  61  43 /   0  10  40  30  10  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 190957
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be well above average with
afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will be on
the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Skies are expected to be mostly sunny by this afternoon
over most of the Inland Northwest. The high amplitude upper level
ridge and its mid-level subsidence will produce unusually warm
temperatures aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will feel more
like late September than late October. Upper 60s to mid 70s should
be common.

Monday: Temperatures will be warm once again on Monday. A slow
moving frontal system approaching the coast will spread mid and
high clouds over the region during the day. The increase in
southerly wind in the afternoon should provide the low level
mixing necessary to counteract the loss of sunshine. The GFS and
ECMWF spread rain over the Cascades by the afternoon which may
temper warming in places like Leavenworth, Mazama, and Wenatchee
potentially keeping these areas in the 60s. However, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph over the Palouse, West Plains and Upper Columbia
Basin will likely provide enough mechanical mixing to push
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s in places like
Ritzville, Pullman and Spokane. Precipitation chances Monday night
are tough to nail down. The NAM and GFS shear the front apart
Monday night and produce little measurable rainfall east of the
Cascades. The ECMWF keeps the front more in-tact through Eastern
Washington and northern Idaho producing more light rainfall
through the night. The wetter ECMWF is more in line with our
previous forecast so we have continued with this wetter trend. The
front that moved through Friday night was similar and produced
more light rain than expected, so the wetter ECMWF may be on the
right track. /GKoch

Tuesday...A short wave trough will track into the Idaho Panhandle
Tuesday morning. A cooler and showery day is expected for the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle while a weak short ridge
noses into Central Washington by the afternoon with generally dry
conditions expected.

Wednesday through Thursday night...A much wetter pattern will
develop. The ECMWF has trended towards the wetter GFS/Canadian
models. A moist atmospheric river will become aimed at the
Washington and north Oregon Cascades extending into Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. In addition...850mb winds out
of the south-southwest at 30-40 kts will provide strong upslope
flow into the northern mountains where rain is a given and have
increased POP`s further Wednesday and Thursday. GFS and ECMWF
indicate 2 day rainfall totals of 2-3 inches along the Cascade
crest, 1-2 inches for the northern mountains. Burn scar areas will
have to be monitored with the expected rain. Rain is also likely
for the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area. Areas further south around
Pullman and Lewiston are more uncertain. A combination of these
areas possibly being on the southern fringes of the atmospheric
river and strong downsloping off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains
should limit precipitation chances especially in Lewiston-
Clarkston Valley. JW

Friday through Sunday night: Moist southwest flow will be over the
Inland Northwest on Friday, and it remains to be seen how long
this flow pattern can remain. Models are in agreement in this
being over the region on Friday, but just like over the last few
days, there is disagreement on the forecast for the weekend. The
models have been having a hard time in forecasting how much
influence a large ridge of high pressure will have over the Inland
Northwest. Slowly but surely, the influence on the models has
become less and less. The GFS has stuck to its guns on keeping the
ridge out of the region, keeping a more unsettled weather regime.
The other models are slowly but surely coming into that idea as
well, although some are taking longer than others in letting go.
Precipitation chances were raised all around each day. Did not
want to go full on just yet, but a general increase seemed
prudent.

Temperatures will remain on above average by several degrees,
although temperatures closer to normal will be likely if
widespread cloud cover and rainfall materialize. There is some
indication that some cooler air may make a run at the region later
next week, but that is beyond the time frame of this forecast. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: Low level moisture left from very recent rainfall
associated with the weather system that exited Saturday has
allowed for some stratus/fog formation that should increase and
intensify overnight and into early Sunday morning with some MVFR
conditions resulting, primarily near KEAT. Shallow fog will also
be a possibility from Sandpoint to Coeur D`Alene to Spokane. The
second weather system of note will spread some high cirrus clouds
across the aviation area primarily between 6-18Z tonight that is
expected to thin as the thin weak cold frontal zone associated
with it starts to cross the cascades near 00Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  47  70  47  57  43 /   0   0  10  40  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  71  44  69  44  56  40 /   0   0   0  40  40  20
Pullman        74  46  74  44  57  42 /   0   0   0  50  40  10
Lewiston       75  48  75  50  61  43 /   0   0   0  60  50  10
Colville       71  43  69  45  59  42 /   0   0  20  50  30  20
Sandpoint      65  40  66  43  54  38 /   0   0  10  40  50  20
Kellogg        68  46  68  43  50  38 /   0   0   0  50  70  20
Moses Lake     71  45  69  47  65  45 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      66  50  66  47  64  46 /   0  10  40  30  10  30
Omak           66  45  65  44  61  43 /   0  10  40  30  10  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 190957
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be well above average with
afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will be on
the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Skies are expected to be mostly sunny by this afternoon
over most of the Inland Northwest. The high amplitude upper level
ridge and its mid-level subsidence will produce unusually warm
temperatures aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will feel more
like late September than late October. Upper 60s to mid 70s should
be common.

Monday: Temperatures will be warm once again on Monday. A slow
moving frontal system approaching the coast will spread mid and
high clouds over the region during the day. The increase in
southerly wind in the afternoon should provide the low level
mixing necessary to counteract the loss of sunshine. The GFS and
ECMWF spread rain over the Cascades by the afternoon which may
temper warming in places like Leavenworth, Mazama, and Wenatchee
potentially keeping these areas in the 60s. However, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph over the Palouse, West Plains and Upper Columbia
Basin will likely provide enough mechanical mixing to push
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s in places like
Ritzville, Pullman and Spokane. Precipitation chances Monday night
are tough to nail down. The NAM and GFS shear the front apart
Monday night and produce little measurable rainfall east of the
Cascades. The ECMWF keeps the front more in-tact through Eastern
Washington and northern Idaho producing more light rainfall
through the night. The wetter ECMWF is more in line with our
previous forecast so we have continued with this wetter trend. The
front that moved through Friday night was similar and produced
more light rain than expected, so the wetter ECMWF may be on the
right track. /GKoch

Tuesday...A short wave trough will track into the Idaho Panhandle
Tuesday morning. A cooler and showery day is expected for the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle while a weak short ridge
noses into Central Washington by the afternoon with generally dry
conditions expected.

Wednesday through Thursday night...A much wetter pattern will
develop. The ECMWF has trended towards the wetter GFS/Canadian
models. A moist atmospheric river will become aimed at the
Washington and north Oregon Cascades extending into Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. In addition...850mb winds out
of the south-southwest at 30-40 kts will provide strong upslope
flow into the northern mountains where rain is a given and have
increased POP`s further Wednesday and Thursday. GFS and ECMWF
indicate 2 day rainfall totals of 2-3 inches along the Cascade
crest, 1-2 inches for the northern mountains. Burn scar areas will
have to be monitored with the expected rain. Rain is also likely
for the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area. Areas further south around
Pullman and Lewiston are more uncertain. A combination of these
areas possibly being on the southern fringes of the atmospheric
river and strong downsloping off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains
should limit precipitation chances especially in Lewiston-
Clarkston Valley. JW

Friday through Sunday night: Moist southwest flow will be over the
Inland Northwest on Friday, and it remains to be seen how long
this flow pattern can remain. Models are in agreement in this
being over the region on Friday, but just like over the last few
days, there is disagreement on the forecast for the weekend. The
models have been having a hard time in forecasting how much
influence a large ridge of high pressure will have over the Inland
Northwest. Slowly but surely, the influence on the models has
become less and less. The GFS has stuck to its guns on keeping the
ridge out of the region, keeping a more unsettled weather regime.
The other models are slowly but surely coming into that idea as
well, although some are taking longer than others in letting go.
Precipitation chances were raised all around each day. Did not
want to go full on just yet, but a general increase seemed
prudent.

Temperatures will remain on above average by several degrees,
although temperatures closer to normal will be likely if
widespread cloud cover and rainfall materialize. There is some
indication that some cooler air may make a run at the region later
next week, but that is beyond the time frame of this forecast. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: Low level moisture left from very recent rainfall
associated with the weather system that exited Saturday has
allowed for some stratus/fog formation that should increase and
intensify overnight and into early Sunday morning with some MVFR
conditions resulting, primarily near KEAT. Shallow fog will also
be a possibility from Sandpoint to Coeur D`Alene to Spokane. The
second weather system of note will spread some high cirrus clouds
across the aviation area primarily between 6-18Z tonight that is
expected to thin as the thin weak cold frontal zone associated
with it starts to cross the cascades near 00Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  47  70  47  57  43 /   0   0  10  40  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  71  44  69  44  56  40 /   0   0   0  40  40  20
Pullman        74  46  74  44  57  42 /   0   0   0  50  40  10
Lewiston       75  48  75  50  61  43 /   0   0   0  60  50  10
Colville       71  43  69  45  59  42 /   0   0  20  50  30  20
Sandpoint      65  40  66  43  54  38 /   0   0  10  40  50  20
Kellogg        68  46  68  43  50  38 /   0   0   0  50  70  20
Moses Lake     71  45  69  47  65  45 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      66  50  66  47  64  46 /   0  10  40  30  10  30
Omak           66  45  65  44  61  43 /   0  10  40  30  10  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 190957
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be well above average with
afternoon readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will be on
the increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday.
Significant rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of
the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Skies are expected to be mostly sunny by this afternoon
over most of the Inland Northwest. The high amplitude upper level
ridge and its mid-level subsidence will produce unusually warm
temperatures aloft. Afternoon high temperatures will feel more
like late September than late October. Upper 60s to mid 70s should
be common.

Monday: Temperatures will be warm once again on Monday. A slow
moving frontal system approaching the coast will spread mid and
high clouds over the region during the day. The increase in
southerly wind in the afternoon should provide the low level
mixing necessary to counteract the loss of sunshine. The GFS and
ECMWF spread rain over the Cascades by the afternoon which may
temper warming in places like Leavenworth, Mazama, and Wenatchee
potentially keeping these areas in the 60s. However, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph over the Palouse, West Plains and Upper Columbia
Basin will likely provide enough mechanical mixing to push
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s in places like
Ritzville, Pullman and Spokane. Precipitation chances Monday night
are tough to nail down. The NAM and GFS shear the front apart
Monday night and produce little measurable rainfall east of the
Cascades. The ECMWF keeps the front more in-tact through Eastern
Washington and northern Idaho producing more light rainfall
through the night. The wetter ECMWF is more in line with our
previous forecast so we have continued with this wetter trend. The
front that moved through Friday night was similar and produced
more light rain than expected, so the wetter ECMWF may be on the
right track. /GKoch

Tuesday...A short wave trough will track into the Idaho Panhandle
Tuesday morning. A cooler and showery day is expected for the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle while a weak short ridge
noses into Central Washington by the afternoon with generally dry
conditions expected.

Wednesday through Thursday night...A much wetter pattern will
develop. The ECMWF has trended towards the wetter GFS/Canadian
models. A moist atmospheric river will become aimed at the
Washington and north Oregon Cascades extending into Northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. In addition...850mb winds out
of the south-southwest at 30-40 kts will provide strong upslope
flow into the northern mountains where rain is a given and have
increased POP`s further Wednesday and Thursday. GFS and ECMWF
indicate 2 day rainfall totals of 2-3 inches along the Cascade
crest, 1-2 inches for the northern mountains. Burn scar areas will
have to be monitored with the expected rain. Rain is also likely
for the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area. Areas further south around
Pullman and Lewiston are more uncertain. A combination of these
areas possibly being on the southern fringes of the atmospheric
river and strong downsloping off the Blue and Wallowa Mountains
should limit precipitation chances especially in Lewiston-
Clarkston Valley. JW

Friday through Sunday night: Moist southwest flow will be over the
Inland Northwest on Friday, and it remains to be seen how long
this flow pattern can remain. Models are in agreement in this
being over the region on Friday, but just like over the last few
days, there is disagreement on the forecast for the weekend. The
models have been having a hard time in forecasting how much
influence a large ridge of high pressure will have over the Inland
Northwest. Slowly but surely, the influence on the models has
become less and less. The GFS has stuck to its guns on keeping the
ridge out of the region, keeping a more unsettled weather regime.
The other models are slowly but surely coming into that idea as
well, although some are taking longer than others in letting go.
Precipitation chances were raised all around each day. Did not
want to go full on just yet, but a general increase seemed
prudent.

Temperatures will remain on above average by several degrees,
although temperatures closer to normal will be likely if
widespread cloud cover and rainfall materialize. There is some
indication that some cooler air may make a run at the region later
next week, but that is beyond the time frame of this forecast. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: Low level moisture left from very recent rainfall
associated with the weather system that exited Saturday has
allowed for some stratus/fog formation that should increase and
intensify overnight and into early Sunday morning with some MVFR
conditions resulting, primarily near KEAT. Shallow fog will also
be a possibility from Sandpoint to Coeur D`Alene to Spokane. The
second weather system of note will spread some high cirrus clouds
across the aviation area primarily between 6-18Z tonight that is
expected to thin as the thin weak cold frontal zone associated
with it starts to cross the cascades near 00Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        71  47  70  47  57  43 /   0   0  10  40  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  71  44  69  44  56  40 /   0   0   0  40  40  20
Pullman        74  46  74  44  57  42 /   0   0   0  50  40  10
Lewiston       75  48  75  50  61  43 /   0   0   0  60  50  10
Colville       71  43  69  45  59  42 /   0   0  20  50  30  20
Sandpoint      65  40  66  43  54  38 /   0   0  10  40  50  20
Kellogg        68  46  68  43  50  38 /   0   0   0  50  70  20
Moses Lake     71  45  69  47  65  45 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      66  50  66  47  64  46 /   0  10  40  30  10  30
Omak           66  45  65  44  61  43 /   0  10  40  30  10  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 190525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm
above average Sunday under clearing skies. Clouds will be on the
increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday. Significant
rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery showing vort max digging into the baroclinic
zone that is influencing the coast. As a cusp forms the northern
portion of the baroclinic band will pass over the forecast area
tonight as a warm frontal zone of sorts bringing high cirrus to
the area. Tomorrow afternoon the cold front portion to the south
of the inflection point will pass through. Either way the main
changes were to cloud cover to better represent this scenario in
the grids which really did not impact the majority of the text
forecast wording which makes liberal use of mostly cloudy.
Additionally recent rainfall from Friday night/Saturday morning
will allow for low clouds and fog in the typically favored more
sheltered locations such as in the valleys to the north and in the
Wenatchee area and other valleys in the Cascades. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
05z TAFS: Low level moisture left from very recent rainfall
associated with the weather system that exited Saturday has
allowed for some stratus/fog formation that should increase and
intensify overnight and into early Sunday morning with some MVFR
conditions resulting, primarily near KEAT and many of the northern
valleys not associated with a TAF site. The second weather system
of note will spread some high cirrus clouds across the aviation
area primarily between 6-18Z tonight that is expected to thin as
the thin weak cold frontal zone associated with it starts to cross
the cascades near 00Z Monday. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  71  46  68  46  57 /   0   0   0   0  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  43  72  44  70  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  40  40
Pullman        45  74  45  73  44  57 /   0   0   0   0  70  40
Lewiston       48  76  49  74  49  61 /   0   0   0   0  70  50
Colville       42  71  43  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  50  30
Sandpoint      40  66  39  67  43  54 /   0   0   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        43  67  45  69  45  50 /   0   0   0   0  50  70
Moses Lake     46  71  45  69  46  65 /   0   0   0  10  40  10
Wenatchee      49  68  50  66  50  64 /   0   0  10  30  40  10
Omak           45  68  44  66  44  61 /   0   0  10  20  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 190525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm
above average Sunday under clearing skies. Clouds will be on the
increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday. Significant
rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery showing vort max digging into the baroclinic
zone that is influencing the coast. As a cusp forms the northern
portion of the baroclinic band will pass over the forecast area
tonight as a warm frontal zone of sorts bringing high cirrus to
the area. Tomorrow afternoon the cold front portion to the south
of the inflection point will pass through. Either way the main
changes were to cloud cover to better represent this scenario in
the grids which really did not impact the majority of the text
forecast wording which makes liberal use of mostly cloudy.
Additionally recent rainfall from Friday night/Saturday morning
will allow for low clouds and fog in the typically favored more
sheltered locations such as in the valleys to the north and in the
Wenatchee area and other valleys in the Cascades. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
05z TAFS: Low level moisture left from very recent rainfall
associated with the weather system that exited Saturday has
allowed for some stratus/fog formation that should increase and
intensify overnight and into early Sunday morning with some MVFR
conditions resulting, primarily near KEAT and many of the northern
valleys not associated with a TAF site. The second weather system
of note will spread some high cirrus clouds across the aviation
area primarily between 6-18Z tonight that is expected to thin as
the thin weak cold frontal zone associated with it starts to cross
the cascades near 00Z Monday. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  71  46  68  46  57 /   0   0   0   0  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  43  72  44  70  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  40  40
Pullman        45  74  45  73  44  57 /   0   0   0   0  70  40
Lewiston       48  76  49  74  49  61 /   0   0   0   0  70  50
Colville       42  71  43  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  50  30
Sandpoint      40  66  39  67  43  54 /   0   0   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        43  67  45  69  45  50 /   0   0   0   0  50  70
Moses Lake     46  71  45  69  46  65 /   0   0   0  10  40  10
Wenatchee      49  68  50  66  50  64 /   0   0  10  30  40  10
Omak           45  68  44  66  44  61 /   0   0  10  20  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 182334
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm
above average Sunday under clearing skies. Clouds will be on the
increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday. Significant
rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...The main weather issue impacting
the region through this period will occur tonight and into Sunday
morning and mainly impact aviation concerns. Stubborn low stratus
continues to blanket much of the deep basin and valleys north of
the Columbia basin under a low level inversion which is mixing out
at a snail`s pace this afternoon. Locations such as
Wenatchee...Omak...Colville and Sandpoint may not clear out until
very late this afternoon...with the likely prospect of clouding
over once again after sunset as the nocturnal inversion once again
becomes established and the surface pressure gradient promotes
damming of low level moist air against the Cascades. Light rain
last night from a few hundredths to 1/4 inch in these areas has
moistened the low level air mass. With lower sun angles during the
day this time of year the overnight inversion has been very slow
to erode and allow mixing into these areas for a break up.

Otherwise generally drying and clearing is underway over most of
the region and this trend will continue over the next 24 hours as
an upper level ridge builds aloft. Southwest flow ahead of the
next Pacific storm system will promote warm advection aloft and
allow much warmer than average temperatures on Sunday under mostly
sunny skies with light winds. Again...the only fly in the
ointment will be more low clouds dammed against the Cascades and
in the valleys north of the basin early in the day but with the
better mixing potential and more dry air advecting into the
region under the ridge these clouds will be more likely to break
up during the early afternoon. Sunday night will be dry and benign
but with the potential for some thin high clouds from the next
system to begin overspreading the region. /Fugazzi

Monday through Tuesday night: A shortwave trough of lower pressure
will break down the high pressure ridge Monday night. The upper
level trough will feature a moderately strong vorticity maximum
(or vort max) that will primarily swing across OR into central
ID. The southern portion of WA and the south-central ID Panhandle
will be along the north edge of the synoptic scale lift associated
with this vort max. Models do not show much in the way of moist
low level isentropic ascent, so forcing with this system will be
attributed from differential vorticity advection and frontal
dynamics along the cold front. There is some decent cold air
advection and steepening mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/KM.
All of these factors will result in a band of precip that forms
along the front across the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Most areas will see light precip amounts with the best
chances for more moderate precip amounts across extreme southeast
WA to the Central Panhandle Mtns where the better upper level
support will be located. These areas are expected to see total
rainfall amounts between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. The rest
of the region will more likely see rainfall totals of less than a
tenth of an inch along the front.

With some weak to moderate cold air advection with frontal
passage, I do anticipate a slight uptick in the winds; however,
the timing of the front during the nighttime hours will occur at
time of poor mixing potential. Pressure gradients will be
weakening during the day on Tuesday in response to the next
approaching frontal system offshore. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler on Tuesday behind the cold front, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area. High temperatures
will drop from the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday to the mid 50s to
mid 60s on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday through Saturday Night: Period will start out wet with
an atmospheric river directed into the region before conditions
dry out as we move toward the weekend. Further examining the
atmospheric river, we see precipitable water values quickly rise
to over 0.75 inches for most of the area with portions of the
basin seeing values peak above an inch. Even with moderate to
strong westerly flow over the Cascades, rain shadowing should not
be a problem in the lee of the mtns due to the abundance of
moisture. Precipitation will be widespread with most areas likely
receiving a solid wetting rain. Locations near the Cascade crests
could see over 2 inches by Thursday morning with the northern mtns
of WA and ID seeing over an inch. With this amount of
precipitation expected, we will have to keep an eye on our recent
burn scars to monitor any flash flood concerns. This threat will
be further examined as we move closer to the event. South to
southwesterly wind fields still support some shadowing in the L-C
valley limiting the precip totals. Wednesday currently looks to be
the wettest day by far followed by a drying trend from south to
north as weak ridging helps to push the storm track further north.
Snow levels will be high enough that only the highest peaks could
see snow and even these locations will see little to no
accumulations. The GFS continues to be the slowest to exit the
precip with remnant showers for the northern basin through Friday.
The Euro on the other hand quickly moves the precip north leaving
the basin dry by late Thursday. Leaned toward the drier Euro and
cut POPs quicker for the basin Thursday.

By Friday the majority of the precipitation has shifted north
leaving a mainly dry forecast area minus some lingering showers
for the Cascades and far northern mountains. This leads to the
start of what looks to be a pleasant weekend with mostly dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Overall winds look to
remain generally in check for most as the stratiform nature of the
precip should allow for the lower levels to remain decoupled from
the stronger upper level winds. The higher elevations may see some
breezy winds, but nothing out of the ordinary for the fall season.
Overall the main threat to monitor through the extended will the
potential for flooding near recent burn scars. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: The aviation area remains between weather systems for a
short while as one exits to the east and another approaches from
the west. A reasonable amount of low level moisture left from
very recent rainfall associated with the exiting weather system
has allowed for some stratus/fog formation that is expected to
increase and intensify overnight and into early Sunday morning
with some MVFR conditions resulting, primarily near KEAT and many
of the northern valleys not associated with a TAF site. The second
weather system of note will spread some high cirrus clouds across
the aviation area primarily between 6-18Z tonight that is expected
to thin as the thin weak cold frontal zone associated with it
starts to cross the cascades near 00Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  71  46  68  46  57 /   0   0   0   0  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  43  72  44  70  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  40  40
Pullman        45  74  45  73  44  57 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Lewiston       48  76  49  74  49  61 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Colville       42  71  43  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  50  30
Sandpoint      40  66  39  67  43  54 /   0   0   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        43  67  45  69  45  50 /   0   0   0   0  50  70
Moses Lake     46  71  45  69  46  65 /   0   0   0  10  40  10
Wenatchee      49  68  50  66  50  64 /   0   0  10  30  40  10
Omak           45  68  44  66  44  61 /   0   0  10  20  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 182334
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm
above average Sunday under clearing skies. Clouds will be on the
increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday. Significant
rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...The main weather issue impacting
the region through this period will occur tonight and into Sunday
morning and mainly impact aviation concerns. Stubborn low stratus
continues to blanket much of the deep basin and valleys north of
the Columbia basin under a low level inversion which is mixing out
at a snail`s pace this afternoon. Locations such as
Wenatchee...Omak...Colville and Sandpoint may not clear out until
very late this afternoon...with the likely prospect of clouding
over once again after sunset as the nocturnal inversion once again
becomes established and the surface pressure gradient promotes
damming of low level moist air against the Cascades. Light rain
last night from a few hundredths to 1/4 inch in these areas has
moistened the low level air mass. With lower sun angles during the
day this time of year the overnight inversion has been very slow
to erode and allow mixing into these areas for a break up.

Otherwise generally drying and clearing is underway over most of
the region and this trend will continue over the next 24 hours as
an upper level ridge builds aloft. Southwest flow ahead of the
next Pacific storm system will promote warm advection aloft and
allow much warmer than average temperatures on Sunday under mostly
sunny skies with light winds. Again...the only fly in the
ointment will be more low clouds dammed against the Cascades and
in the valleys north of the basin early in the day but with the
better mixing potential and more dry air advecting into the
region under the ridge these clouds will be more likely to break
up during the early afternoon. Sunday night will be dry and benign
but with the potential for some thin high clouds from the next
system to begin overspreading the region. /Fugazzi

Monday through Tuesday night: A shortwave trough of lower pressure
will break down the high pressure ridge Monday night. The upper
level trough will feature a moderately strong vorticity maximum
(or vort max) that will primarily swing across OR into central
ID. The southern portion of WA and the south-central ID Panhandle
will be along the north edge of the synoptic scale lift associated
with this vort max. Models do not show much in the way of moist
low level isentropic ascent, so forcing with this system will be
attributed from differential vorticity advection and frontal
dynamics along the cold front. There is some decent cold air
advection and steepening mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/KM.
All of these factors will result in a band of precip that forms
along the front across the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Most areas will see light precip amounts with the best
chances for more moderate precip amounts across extreme southeast
WA to the Central Panhandle Mtns where the better upper level
support will be located. These areas are expected to see total
rainfall amounts between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. The rest
of the region will more likely see rainfall totals of less than a
tenth of an inch along the front.

With some weak to moderate cold air advection with frontal
passage, I do anticipate a slight uptick in the winds; however,
the timing of the front during the nighttime hours will occur at
time of poor mixing potential. Pressure gradients will be
weakening during the day on Tuesday in response to the next
approaching frontal system offshore. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler on Tuesday behind the cold front, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area. High temperatures
will drop from the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday to the mid 50s to
mid 60s on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday through Saturday Night: Period will start out wet with
an atmospheric river directed into the region before conditions
dry out as we move toward the weekend. Further examining the
atmospheric river, we see precipitable water values quickly rise
to over 0.75 inches for most of the area with portions of the
basin seeing values peak above an inch. Even with moderate to
strong westerly flow over the Cascades, rain shadowing should not
be a problem in the lee of the mtns due to the abundance of
moisture. Precipitation will be widespread with most areas likely
receiving a solid wetting rain. Locations near the Cascade crests
could see over 2 inches by Thursday morning with the northern mtns
of WA and ID seeing over an inch. With this amount of
precipitation expected, we will have to keep an eye on our recent
burn scars to monitor any flash flood concerns. This threat will
be further examined as we move closer to the event. South to
southwesterly wind fields still support some shadowing in the L-C
valley limiting the precip totals. Wednesday currently looks to be
the wettest day by far followed by a drying trend from south to
north as weak ridging helps to push the storm track further north.
Snow levels will be high enough that only the highest peaks could
see snow and even these locations will see little to no
accumulations. The GFS continues to be the slowest to exit the
precip with remnant showers for the northern basin through Friday.
The Euro on the other hand quickly moves the precip north leaving
the basin dry by late Thursday. Leaned toward the drier Euro and
cut POPs quicker for the basin Thursday.

By Friday the majority of the precipitation has shifted north
leaving a mainly dry forecast area minus some lingering showers
for the Cascades and far northern mountains. This leads to the
start of what looks to be a pleasant weekend with mostly dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Overall winds look to
remain generally in check for most as the stratiform nature of the
precip should allow for the lower levels to remain decoupled from
the stronger upper level winds. The higher elevations may see some
breezy winds, but nothing out of the ordinary for the fall season.
Overall the main threat to monitor through the extended will the
potential for flooding near recent burn scars. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: The aviation area remains between weather systems for a
short while as one exits to the east and another approaches from
the west. A reasonable amount of low level moisture left from
very recent rainfall associated with the exiting weather system
has allowed for some stratus/fog formation that is expected to
increase and intensify overnight and into early Sunday morning
with some MVFR conditions resulting, primarily near KEAT and many
of the northern valleys not associated with a TAF site. The second
weather system of note will spread some high cirrus clouds across
the aviation area primarily between 6-18Z tonight that is expected
to thin as the thin weak cold frontal zone associated with it
starts to cross the cascades near 00Z Monday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  71  46  68  46  57 /   0   0   0   0  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  43  72  44  70  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  40  40
Pullman        45  74  45  73  44  57 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Lewiston       48  76  49  74  49  61 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Colville       42  71  43  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  50  30
Sandpoint      40  66  39  67  43  54 /   0   0   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        43  67  45  69  45  50 /   0   0   0   0  50  70
Moses Lake     46  71  45  69  46  65 /   0   0   0  10  40  10
Wenatchee      49  68  50  66  50  64 /   0   0  10  30  40  10
Omak           45  68  44  66  44  61 /   0   0  10  20  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 182118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm
above average Sunday under clearing skies. Clouds will be on the
increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday. Significant
rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...The main weather issue impacting
the region through this period will occur tonight and into Sunday
morning and mainly impact aviation concerns. Stubborn low stratus
continues to blanket much of the deep basin and valleys north of
the Columbia basin under a low level inversion which is mixing out
at a snail`s pace this afternoon. Locations such as
Wenatchee...Omak...Colville and Sandpoint may not clear out until
very late this afternoon...with the likely prospect of clouding
over once again after sunset as the nocturnal inversion once again
becomes established and the surface pressure gradient promotes
damming of low level moist air against the Cascades. Light rain
last night from a few hundredths to 1/4 inch in these areas has
moistened the low level air mass. With lower sun angles during the
day this time of year the overnight inversion has been very slow
to erode and allow mixing into these areas for a break up.

Otherwise generally drying and clearing is underway over most of
the region and this trend will continue over the next 24 hours as
an upper level ridge builds aloft. Southwest flow ahead of the
next Pacific storm system will promote warm advection aloft and
allow much warmer than average temperatures on Sunday under mostly
sunny skies with light winds. Again...the only fly in the
ointment will be more low clouds dammed against the Cascades and
in the valleys north of the basin early in the day but with the
better mixing potential and more dry air advecting into the
region under the ridge these clouds will be more likely to break
up during the early afternoon. Sunday night will be dry and benign
but with the potential for some thin high clouds from the next
system to begin overspreading the region. /Fugazzi

Monday through Tuesday night: A shortwave trough of lower pressure
will break down the high pressure ridge Monday night. The upper
level trough will feature a moderately strong vorticity maximum
(or vort max) that will primarily swing across OR into central
ID. The southern portion of WA and the south-central ID Panhandle
will be along the north edge of the synoptic scale lift associated
with this vort max. Models do not show much in the way of moist
low level isentropic ascent, so forcing with this system will be
attributed from differential vorticity advection and frontal
dynamics along the cold front. There is some decent cold air
advection and steepening mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/KM.
All of these factors will result in a band of precip that forms
along the front across the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Most areas will see light precip amounts with the best
chances for more moderate precip amounts across extreme southeast
WA to the Central Panhandle Mtns where the better upper level
support will be located. These areas are expected to see total
rainfall amounts between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. The rest
of the region will more likely see rainfall totals of less than a
tenth of an inch along the front.

With some weak to moderate cold air advection with frontal
passage, I do anticipate a slight uptick in the winds; however,
the timing of the front during the nighttime hours will occur at
time of poor mixing potential. Pressure gradients will be
weakening during the day on Tuesday in response to the next
approaching frontal system offshore. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler on Tuesday behind the cold front, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area. High temperatures
will drop from the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday to the mid 50s to
mid 60s on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday through Saturday Night: Period will start out wet with
an atmospheric river directed into the region before conditions
dry out as we move toward the weekend. Further examining the
atmospheric river, we see precipitable water values quickly rise
to over 0.75 inches for most of the area with portions of the
basin seeing values peak above an inch. Even with moderate to
strong westerly flow over the Cascades, rain shadowing should not
be a problem in the lee of the mtns due to the abundance of
moisture. Precipitation will be widespread with most areas likely
receiving a solid wetting rain. Locations near the Cascade crests
could see over 2 inches by Thursday morning with the northern mtns
of WA and ID seeing over an inch. With this amount of
precipitation expected, we will have to keep an eye on our recent
burn scars to monitor any flash flood concerns. This threat will
be further examined as we move closer to the event. South to
southwesterly wind fields still support some shadowing in the L-C
valley limiting the precip totals. Wednesday currently looks to be
the wettest day by far followed by a drying trend from south to
north as weak ridging helps to push the storm track further north.
Snow levels will be high enough that only the highest peaks could
see snow and even these locations will see little to no
accumulations. The GFS continues to be the slowest to exit the
precip with remnant showers for the northern basin through Friday.
The Euro on the other hand quickly moves the precip north leaving
the basin dry by late Thursday. Leaned toward the drier Euro and
cut POPs quicker for the basin Thursday.

By Friday the majority of the precipitation has shifted north
leaving a mainly dry forecast area minus some lingering showers
for the Cascades and far northern mountains. This leads to the
start of what looks to be a pleasant weekend with mostly dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Overall winds look to
remain generally in check for most as the stratiform nature of the
precip should allow for the lower levels to remain decoupled from
the stronger upper level winds. The higher elevations may see some
breezy winds, but nothing out of the ordinary for the fall season.
Overall the main threat to monitor through the extended will the
potential for flooding near recent burn scars. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A moist boundary layer with a developing mid level
subsidence inversion will bring a slow break up of largely MVFR
stratus plaguing the KEAT and KGEG area TAF sites this morning and
early afternoon. A few lingering showers will pass over or near
the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through 21Z with clearing skies after.
In general improving conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through 21-22Z with VFR conditions tonight and through 18Z Sunday
except fro the potential of a return of MVFR stratus to KEAT after
06Z tonight. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  71  46  68  46  57 /   0   0   0   0  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  43  72  44  70  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  40  40
Pullman        45  74  45  73  44  57 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Lewiston       48  76  49  74  49  61 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Colville       42  71  43  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  50  30
Sandpoint      40  66  39  67  43  54 /   0   0   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        43  67  45  69  45  50 /   0   0   0   0  50  70
Moses Lake     46  71  45  69  46  65 /   0   0   0  10  40  10
Wenatchee      49  68  50  66  50  64 /   0   0  10  30  40  10
Omak           45  68  44  66  44  61 /   0   0  10  20  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 182118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm
above average Sunday under clearing skies. Clouds will be on the
increase Monday ahead of the next frontal system. Rainy and
unsettled weather will return Monday night into Tuesday. Significant
rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday for much of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...The main weather issue impacting
the region through this period will occur tonight and into Sunday
morning and mainly impact aviation concerns. Stubborn low stratus
continues to blanket much of the deep basin and valleys north of
the Columbia basin under a low level inversion which is mixing out
at a snail`s pace this afternoon. Locations such as
Wenatchee...Omak...Colville and Sandpoint may not clear out until
very late this afternoon...with the likely prospect of clouding
over once again after sunset as the nocturnal inversion once again
becomes established and the surface pressure gradient promotes
damming of low level moist air against the Cascades. Light rain
last night from a few hundredths to 1/4 inch in these areas has
moistened the low level air mass. With lower sun angles during the
day this time of year the overnight inversion has been very slow
to erode and allow mixing into these areas for a break up.

Otherwise generally drying and clearing is underway over most of
the region and this trend will continue over the next 24 hours as
an upper level ridge builds aloft. Southwest flow ahead of the
next Pacific storm system will promote warm advection aloft and
allow much warmer than average temperatures on Sunday under mostly
sunny skies with light winds. Again...the only fly in the
ointment will be more low clouds dammed against the Cascades and
in the valleys north of the basin early in the day but with the
better mixing potential and more dry air advecting into the
region under the ridge these clouds will be more likely to break
up during the early afternoon. Sunday night will be dry and benign
but with the potential for some thin high clouds from the next
system to begin overspreading the region. /Fugazzi

Monday through Tuesday night: A shortwave trough of lower pressure
will break down the high pressure ridge Monday night. The upper
level trough will feature a moderately strong vorticity maximum
(or vort max) that will primarily swing across OR into central
ID. The southern portion of WA and the south-central ID Panhandle
will be along the north edge of the synoptic scale lift associated
with this vort max. Models do not show much in the way of moist
low level isentropic ascent, so forcing with this system will be
attributed from differential vorticity advection and frontal
dynamics along the cold front. There is some decent cold air
advection and steepening mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/KM.
All of these factors will result in a band of precip that forms
along the front across the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Most areas will see light precip amounts with the best
chances for more moderate precip amounts across extreme southeast
WA to the Central Panhandle Mtns where the better upper level
support will be located. These areas are expected to see total
rainfall amounts between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. The rest
of the region will more likely see rainfall totals of less than a
tenth of an inch along the front.

With some weak to moderate cold air advection with frontal
passage, I do anticipate a slight uptick in the winds; however,
the timing of the front during the nighttime hours will occur at
time of poor mixing potential. Pressure gradients will be
weakening during the day on Tuesday in response to the next
approaching frontal system offshore. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler on Tuesday behind the cold front, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area. High temperatures
will drop from the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday to the mid 50s to
mid 60s on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday through Saturday Night: Period will start out wet with
an atmospheric river directed into the region before conditions
dry out as we move toward the weekend. Further examining the
atmospheric river, we see precipitable water values quickly rise
to over 0.75 inches for most of the area with portions of the
basin seeing values peak above an inch. Even with moderate to
strong westerly flow over the Cascades, rain shadowing should not
be a problem in the lee of the mtns due to the abundance of
moisture. Precipitation will be widespread with most areas likely
receiving a solid wetting rain. Locations near the Cascade crests
could see over 2 inches by Thursday morning with the northern mtns
of WA and ID seeing over an inch. With this amount of
precipitation expected, we will have to keep an eye on our recent
burn scars to monitor any flash flood concerns. This threat will
be further examined as we move closer to the event. South to
southwesterly wind fields still support some shadowing in the L-C
valley limiting the precip totals. Wednesday currently looks to be
the wettest day by far followed by a drying trend from south to
north as weak ridging helps to push the storm track further north.
Snow levels will be high enough that only the highest peaks could
see snow and even these locations will see little to no
accumulations. The GFS continues to be the slowest to exit the
precip with remnant showers for the northern basin through Friday.
The Euro on the other hand quickly moves the precip north leaving
the basin dry by late Thursday. Leaned toward the drier Euro and
cut POPs quicker for the basin Thursday.

By Friday the majority of the precipitation has shifted north
leaving a mainly dry forecast area minus some lingering showers
for the Cascades and far northern mountains. This leads to the
start of what looks to be a pleasant weekend with mostly dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Overall winds look to
remain generally in check for most as the stratiform nature of the
precip should allow for the lower levels to remain decoupled from
the stronger upper level winds. The higher elevations may see some
breezy winds, but nothing out of the ordinary for the fall season.
Overall the main threat to monitor through the extended will the
potential for flooding near recent burn scars. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A moist boundary layer with a developing mid level
subsidence inversion will bring a slow break up of largely MVFR
stratus plaguing the KEAT and KGEG area TAF sites this morning and
early afternoon. A few lingering showers will pass over or near
the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through 21Z with clearing skies after.
In general improving conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through 21-22Z with VFR conditions tonight and through 18Z Sunday
except fro the potential of a return of MVFR stratus to KEAT after
06Z tonight. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  71  46  68  46  57 /   0   0   0   0  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  43  72  44  70  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  40  40
Pullman        45  74  45  73  44  57 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Lewiston       48  76  49  74  49  61 /   0   0   0   0  70  30
Colville       42  71  43  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  50  30
Sandpoint      40  66  39  67  43  54 /   0   0   0   0  40  50
Kellogg        43  67  45  69  45  50 /   0   0   0   0  50  70
Moses Lake     46  71  45  69  46  65 /   0   0   0  10  40  10
Wenatchee      49  68  50  66  50  64 /   0   0  10  30  40  10
Omak           45  68  44  66  44  61 /   0   0  10  20  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 181655
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through the afternoon. Today will be seasonably
cool. Temperatures will warm above average Sunday under mostly
sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase Monday ahead of the
next frontal system. Rainy and unsettled weather will return
Monday night or Tuesday and linger into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Generally improving conditions expected
today...but the improvement will be slow given the moist boundary
layer and extensive low clouds visible on satellite over much of
the region. Overall in the wake of last nights weak storm system a
rideg will build over the region today. The air mass will
stabilize but model soundings suggest a weak ribbon of instability
below the developing subsidence inversion. This will promote a
continuation of shallow convective showers over southeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through early afternoon...but
this activity will be spotty and very hit-and-miss. Locations
currently under low clouds will very gradually break out after
noon to simply scattered flat cumulus. High temperatures today
willbe greatly dependent on the timing of this break up...and
current forecast highs fro cloudy locations are probably the
upper limit of what can be expected. Minor updates to zone
forecasts and State Forecast product expected imminently. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A moist boundary layer with a developing mid level
subsidence inversion will bring a slow break up of largely MVFR
stratus plaguing the KEAT and KGEG area TAF sites this morning and
early afternoon. A few lingering showers will pass over or near
the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through 21Z with clearing skies after.
In general improving conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through 21-22Z with VFR conditions tonight and through 18Z Sunday
except fro the potential of a return of MVFR stratus to KEAT after
06Z tonight. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  44  71  45  67  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  60  42  72  43  68  46 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Pullman        64  45  74  45  67  44 /  20   0   0   0   0  60
Lewiston       67  47  75  49  73  49 /  10   0   0   0   0  50
Colville       62  40  72  42  66  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  40
Sandpoint      57  39  66  38  67  43 /  30   0   0   0  10  40
Kellogg        53  43  68  44  67  45 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Moses Lake     66  45  71  45  69  46 /  10   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      64  48  68  49  65  50 /   0   0   0  10  30  30
Omak           62  44  68  43  65  44 /  10   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 181655
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through the afternoon. Today will be seasonably
cool. Temperatures will warm above average Sunday under mostly
sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase Monday ahead of the
next frontal system. Rainy and unsettled weather will return
Monday night or Tuesday and linger into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Generally improving conditions expected
today...but the improvement will be slow given the moist boundary
layer and extensive low clouds visible on satellite over much of
the region. Overall in the wake of last nights weak storm system a
rideg will build over the region today. The air mass will
stabilize but model soundings suggest a weak ribbon of instability
below the developing subsidence inversion. This will promote a
continuation of shallow convective showers over southeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through early afternoon...but
this activity will be spotty and very hit-and-miss. Locations
currently under low clouds will very gradually break out after
noon to simply scattered flat cumulus. High temperatures today
willbe greatly dependent on the timing of this break up...and
current forecast highs fro cloudy locations are probably the
upper limit of what can be expected. Minor updates to zone
forecasts and State Forecast product expected imminently. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A moist boundary layer with a developing mid level
subsidence inversion will bring a slow break up of largely MVFR
stratus plaguing the KEAT and KGEG area TAF sites this morning and
early afternoon. A few lingering showers will pass over or near
the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through 21Z with clearing skies after.
In general improving conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through 21-22Z with VFR conditions tonight and through 18Z Sunday
except fro the potential of a return of MVFR stratus to KEAT after
06Z tonight. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  44  71  45  67  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  60  42  72  43  68  46 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Pullman        64  45  74  45  67  44 /  20   0   0   0   0  60
Lewiston       67  47  75  49  73  49 /  10   0   0   0   0  50
Colville       62  40  72  42  66  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  40
Sandpoint      57  39  66  38  67  43 /  30   0   0   0  10  40
Kellogg        53  43  68  44  67  45 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Moses Lake     66  45  71  45  69  46 /  10   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      64  48  68  49  65  50 /   0   0   0  10  30  30
Omak           62  44  68  43  65  44 /  10   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 181655
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through the afternoon. Today will be seasonably
cool. Temperatures will warm above average Sunday under mostly
sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase Monday ahead of the
next frontal system. Rainy and unsettled weather will return
Monday night or Tuesday and linger into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Generally improving conditions expected
today...but the improvement will be slow given the moist boundary
layer and extensive low clouds visible on satellite over much of
the region. Overall in the wake of last nights weak storm system a
rideg will build over the region today. The air mass will
stabilize but model soundings suggest a weak ribbon of instability
below the developing subsidence inversion. This will promote a
continuation of shallow convective showers over southeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through early afternoon...but
this activity will be spotty and very hit-and-miss. Locations
currently under low clouds will very gradually break out after
noon to simply scattered flat cumulus. High temperatures today
willbe greatly dependent on the timing of this break up...and
current forecast highs fro cloudy locations are probably the
upper limit of what can be expected. Minor updates to zone
forecasts and State Forecast product expected imminently. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A moist boundary layer with a developing mid level
subsidence inversion will bring a slow break up of largely MVFR
stratus plaguing the KEAT and KGEG area TAF sites this morning and
early afternoon. A few lingering showers will pass over or near
the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through 21Z with clearing skies after.
In general improving conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through 21-22Z with VFR conditions tonight and through 18Z Sunday
except fro the potential of a return of MVFR stratus to KEAT after
06Z tonight. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  44  71  45  67  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  60  42  72  43  68  46 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Pullman        64  45  74  45  67  44 /  20   0   0   0   0  60
Lewiston       67  47  75  49  73  49 /  10   0   0   0   0  50
Colville       62  40  72  42  66  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  40
Sandpoint      57  39  66  38  67  43 /  30   0   0   0  10  40
Kellogg        53  43  68  44  67  45 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Moses Lake     66  45  71  45  69  46 /  10   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      64  48  68  49  65  50 /   0   0   0  10  30  30
Omak           62  44  68  43  65  44 /  10   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 181655
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger over the Idaho Panhandle and portions of
eastern Washington through the afternoon. Today will be seasonably
cool. Temperatures will warm above average Sunday under mostly
sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase Monday ahead of the
next frontal system. Rainy and unsettled weather will return
Monday night or Tuesday and linger into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Generally improving conditions expected
today...but the improvement will be slow given the moist boundary
layer and extensive low clouds visible on satellite over much of
the region. Overall in the wake of last nights weak storm system a
rideg will build over the region today. The air mass will
stabilize but model soundings suggest a weak ribbon of instability
below the developing subsidence inversion. This will promote a
continuation of shallow convective showers over southeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through early afternoon...but
this activity will be spotty and very hit-and-miss. Locations
currently under low clouds will very gradually break out after
noon to simply scattered flat cumulus. High temperatures today
willbe greatly dependent on the timing of this break up...and
current forecast highs fro cloudy locations are probably the
upper limit of what can be expected. Minor updates to zone
forecasts and State Forecast product expected imminently. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: A moist boundary layer with a developing mid level
subsidence inversion will bring a slow break up of largely MVFR
stratus plaguing the KEAT and KGEG area TAF sites this morning and
early afternoon. A few lingering showers will pass over or near
the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through 21Z with clearing skies after.
In general improving conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through 21-22Z with VFR conditions tonight and through 18Z Sunday
except fro the potential of a return of MVFR stratus to KEAT after
06Z tonight. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  44  71  45  67  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  60  42  72  43  68  46 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Pullman        64  45  74  45  67  44 /  20   0   0   0   0  60
Lewiston       67  47  75  49  73  49 /  10   0   0   0   0  50
Colville       62  40  72  42  66  46 /  20   0   0   0  10  40
Sandpoint      57  39  66  38  67  43 /  30   0   0   0  10  40
Kellogg        53  43  68  44  67  45 /  20   0   0   0   0  50
Moses Lake     66  45  71  45  69  46 /  10   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      64  48  68  49  65  50 /   0   0   0  10  30  30
Omak           62  44  68  43  65  44 /  10   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities