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000
FXUS66 KOTX 181151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
351 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A weak cold front and accompanying
trough is moving through the forecast early this morning and will
be followed by a weak ridge of high pressure today. Radar is
indicating rain and snow showers across the east and southeast
zones this morning as the front moves out of the area. Road
temperatures are warm enough that any snow that does fall should
melt. The exception will be over Lookout Pass where they could get
an inch or two through the early morning. Up-sloping flow will
keep rain and snow showers across the Panhandle through the day
with light accumulations expected, otherwise we should see a brief
break in the weather today. Expect areas of fog and stratus to
linger over the lower elevations and northern valleys through the
morning.

As mentioned above the break will be brief as another wet weather
system will move in off the Pacific tonight and track across the
forecast area on Friday. Moisture is plentiful with PWAT`s rising
to almost 200 percent of normal. South-southeast lower level flow
overnight will overcome the shadow effect off the Cascades and all
areas will see measurable precipitation. The cold front will track
across the region during the day Friday and result in a drying
trend from West to east Friday afternoon.

This same southerly flow will allow warm air to rapidly advect
into the region through the night. So we are expecting mainly
valley rain and mountain snow. The challenge is the cooler air in
the Cascade valleys...chiefly the Methow valley and the Okanogan
valley. Model guidance has been to cool in these valleys the past
few days and it looks like the 00z runs are following that trend.
That does not mean that these valleys will not see snow, just
possibly not as much as expected. This could easily result in a
busted forecast for these valleys. For now it looks like the
Methow valley will pick up 1-3 inches of snow. The current models
sure want to scour out the remainder of the valleys and the
Waterville Plateau as the warm air move through the area. These
areas could still pick up 1-2 inches above 1500-2000 feet before
turning over to rain. For the mountains 2-5 inches are likely with
a few inches more up near the crest of the Cascades. For the
Wenatchee valley and along the Columbia river across to Spokane
and Coeur D`Alene the precipitation could start as wet snow or a
rain/snow mix before turning over to all rain through the night.

Some showers will linger across the Cascade crest and up-sloping
into the Panhandle will keep a pretty good chance of rain and snow
showers Friday night. Otherwise expect drier conditions for the
remainder of the forecast area. Tobin

Saturday through Sunday night...One very wet period. An atmospheric
river will take aim on the Pacific NW. The GFS and ECMWF show
agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading across the region
Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful moisture for most of
the weekend. Pwats of over an inch pool off the coast with up to
0.75" of inch making it east of the Cascades. Again precipitation
type will be tricky. Snow levels will be stubborn in the northern
valleys, especially in the Cascade valleys where some light to
moderate snow is possible. Warming increases Saturday night into
Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday
afternoon. In this transition, there is a small chance of a wintry
mix with pockets of freezing rain in a few of the Cascade valleys.
The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian border on Sunday. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. QPF looks juicy with a 0.25" to 0.40" possible from
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Gusty winds will increase
Saturday night into Sunday evening with speeds 25-40 kts across
the Columbia Basin. Gusty winds will continue in the mountains
through night, especially in the Cascades.

Monday through Wednesday...A cold front slides through the region
early Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and
cooler drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the
precipitation will continue to be found near the Cascade crest and
central Panhandle mountains through Monday through Monday evening
and then gradually taper off. A few lingering showers are possible
by early Monday morning across the northern mountains, but for the
most part partial clearing can be expected will allow temperatures
to cool late Monday night and into Tuesday. With the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. In the 00z model runs this feature looks to swing wide
and drops west and south of the region, with the main brunt of the
precipitation found across Oregon. Opted to continue a drier
forecast through mid week with the best chance of snow falling
near the Cascade crest, Blue mountains and central Panhandle
mountains. / rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light rain and snow showers will be possible across the
eastern TAF sites through 15-16z this morning with MVFR/VFR
conditions for KGEG-KCOE corridor and KPUW...VFR conditions at
KLWS. Improvements in both cigs/vsby expected after 18-20z.
Further to the west the southeast gradient will keep cigs/vsby
mainly VFR with conditions slipping to IFR at times through the
morning. These conditions should also improve after 20z. Another
weather system will increase the moisture and chances for
precipitaion beginning at KEAT around 03z and spreading east.
Although the best chance for the eastern TAF sites may hold off
until after 12z. This will result in another deterioration in
cigs/vsby. Precipitation as a rain/snow mix at KEAT but turning
to quickly to -RA...otherwise precip as -RA. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  36  40  32  39  37 /  30  40  90  10  80  90
Coeur d`Alene  40  34  40  32  39  37 /  60  20 100  20  70 100
Pullman        42  35  43  31  43  41 /  40  40  90  10  70  90
Lewiston       44  35  46  32  45  44 /  40  20  80  10  50  80
Colville       37  34  38  33  37  36 /  30  60 100  20  80 100
Sandpoint      37  34  37  32  37  36 /  60  40 100  30  60 100
Kellogg        38  32  37  30  37  35 /  70  30 100  40  50 100
Moses Lake     42  36  42  32  40  37 /  10  70  70  10  80  80
Wenatchee      39  33  40  31  38  32 /  10  80  50  10  90  80
Omak           38  33  37  30  35  32 /  20  90  80  10  80  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 181151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
351 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A weak cold front and accompanying
trough is moving through the forecast early this morning and will
be followed by a weak ridge of high pressure today. Radar is
indicating rain and snow showers across the east and southeast
zones this morning as the front moves out of the area. Road
temperatures are warm enough that any snow that does fall should
melt. The exception will be over Lookout Pass where they could get
an inch or two through the early morning. Up-sloping flow will
keep rain and snow showers across the Panhandle through the day
with light accumulations expected, otherwise we should see a brief
break in the weather today. Expect areas of fog and stratus to
linger over the lower elevations and northern valleys through the
morning.

As mentioned above the break will be brief as another wet weather
system will move in off the Pacific tonight and track across the
forecast area on Friday. Moisture is plentiful with PWAT`s rising
to almost 200 percent of normal. South-southeast lower level flow
overnight will overcome the shadow effect off the Cascades and all
areas will see measurable precipitation. The cold front will track
across the region during the day Friday and result in a drying
trend from West to east Friday afternoon.

This same southerly flow will allow warm air to rapidly advect
into the region through the night. So we are expecting mainly
valley rain and mountain snow. The challenge is the cooler air in
the Cascade valleys...chiefly the Methow valley and the Okanogan
valley. Model guidance has been to cool in these valleys the past
few days and it looks like the 00z runs are following that trend.
That does not mean that these valleys will not see snow, just
possibly not as much as expected. This could easily result in a
busted forecast for these valleys. For now it looks like the
Methow valley will pick up 1-3 inches of snow. The current models
sure want to scour out the remainder of the valleys and the
Waterville Plateau as the warm air move through the area. These
areas could still pick up 1-2 inches above 1500-2000 feet before
turning over to rain. For the mountains 2-5 inches are likely with
a few inches more up near the crest of the Cascades. For the
Wenatchee valley and along the Columbia river across to Spokane
and Coeur D`Alene the precipitation could start as wet snow or a
rain/snow mix before turning over to all rain through the night.

Some showers will linger across the Cascade crest and up-sloping
into the Panhandle will keep a pretty good chance of rain and snow
showers Friday night. Otherwise expect drier conditions for the
remainder of the forecast area. Tobin

Saturday through Sunday night...One very wet period. An atmospheric
river will take aim on the Pacific NW. The GFS and ECMWF show
agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading across the region
Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful moisture for most of
the weekend. Pwats of over an inch pool off the coast with up to
0.75" of inch making it east of the Cascades. Again precipitation
type will be tricky. Snow levels will be stubborn in the northern
valleys, especially in the Cascade valleys where some light to
moderate snow is possible. Warming increases Saturday night into
Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday
afternoon. In this transition, there is a small chance of a wintry
mix with pockets of freezing rain in a few of the Cascade valleys.
The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian border on Sunday. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. QPF looks juicy with a 0.25" to 0.40" possible from
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Gusty winds will increase
Saturday night into Sunday evening with speeds 25-40 kts across
the Columbia Basin. Gusty winds will continue in the mountains
through night, especially in the Cascades.

Monday through Wednesday...A cold front slides through the region
early Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and
cooler drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the
precipitation will continue to be found near the Cascade crest and
central Panhandle mountains through Monday through Monday evening
and then gradually taper off. A few lingering showers are possible
by early Monday morning across the northern mountains, but for the
most part partial clearing can be expected will allow temperatures
to cool late Monday night and into Tuesday. With the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. In the 00z model runs this feature looks to swing wide
and drops west and south of the region, with the main brunt of the
precipitation found across Oregon. Opted to continue a drier
forecast through mid week with the best chance of snow falling
near the Cascade crest, Blue mountains and central Panhandle
mountains. / rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light rain and snow showers will be possible across the
eastern TAF sites through 15-16z this morning with MVFR/VFR
conditions for KGEG-KCOE corridor and KPUW...VFR conditions at
KLWS. Improvements in both cigs/vsby expected after 18-20z.
Further to the west the southeast gradient will keep cigs/vsby
mainly VFR with conditions slipping to IFR at times through the
morning. These conditions should also improve after 20z. Another
weather system will increase the moisture and chances for
precipitaion beginning at KEAT around 03z and spreading east.
Although the best chance for the eastern TAF sites may hold off
until after 12z. This will result in another deterioration in
cigs/vsby. Precipitation as a rain/snow mix at KEAT but turning
to quickly to -RA...otherwise precip as -RA. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  36  40  32  39  37 /  30  40  90  10  80  90
Coeur d`Alene  40  34  40  32  39  37 /  60  20 100  20  70 100
Pullman        42  35  43  31  43  41 /  40  40  90  10  70  90
Lewiston       44  35  46  32  45  44 /  40  20  80  10  50  80
Colville       37  34  38  33  37  36 /  30  60 100  20  80 100
Sandpoint      37  34  37  32  37  36 /  60  40 100  30  60 100
Kellogg        38  32  37  30  37  35 /  70  30 100  40  50 100
Moses Lake     42  36  42  32  40  37 /  10  70  70  10  80  80
Wenatchee      39  33  40  31  38  32 /  10  80  50  10  90  80
Omak           38  33  37  30  35  32 /  20  90  80  10  80  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 181024
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A weak cold front and accompanying
trough is moving through the forecast early this morning and will
be followed by a weak ridge of high pressure today. Radar is
indicating rain and snow showers across the east and southeast
zones this morning as the front moves out of the area. Road
temperatures are warm enough that any snow that does fall should
melt. The exception will be over Lookout Pass where they could get
an inch or two through the early morning. Up-sloping flow will
keep rain and snow showers across the Panhandle through the day
with light accumulations expected, otherwise we should see a brief
break in the weather today. Expect areas of fog and stratus to
linger over the lower elevations and northern valleys through the
morning.

As mentioned above the break will be brief as another wet weather
system will move in off the Pacific tonight and track across the
forecast area on Friday. Moisture is plentiful with PWAT`s rising
to almost 200 percent of normal. South-southeast lower level flow
overnight will overcome the shadow effect off the Cascades and all
areas will see measurable precipitation. The cold front will track
across the region during the day Friday and result in a drying
trend from West to east Friday afternoon.

This same southerly flow will allow warm air to rapidly advect
into the region through the night. So we are expecting mainly
valley rain and mountain snow. The challenge is the cooler air in
the Cascade valleys...chiefly the Methow valley and the Okanogan
valley. Model guidance has been to cool in these valleys the past
few days and it looks like the 00z runs are following that trend.
That does not mean that these valleys will not see snow, just
possibly not as much as expected. This could easily result in a
busted forecast for these valleys. For now it looks like the
Methow valley will pick up 1-3 inches of snow. The current models
sure want to scour out the remainder of the valleys and the
Waterville Plateau as the warm air move through the area. These
areas could still pick up 1-2 inches above 1500-2000 feet before
turning over to rain. For the mountains 2-5 inches are likely with
a few inches more up near the crest of the Cascades. For the
Wenatchee valley and along the Columbia river across to Spokane
and Coeur D`Alene the precipitation could start as wet snow or a
rain/snow mix before turning over to all rain through the night.

Some showers will linger across the Cascade crest and up-sloping
into the Panhandle will keep a pretty good chance of rain and snow
showers Friday night. Otherwise expect drier conditions for the
remainder of the forecast area. Tobin

Saturday through Sunday night...One very wet period. An atmospheric
river will take aim on the Pacific NW. The GFS and ECMWF show
agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading across the region
Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful moisture for most of
the weekend. Pwats of over an inch pool off the coast with up to
0.75" of inch making it east of the Cascades. Again precipitation
type will be tricky. Snow levels will Bbe stubborn in the
northern valleys, especially in the Cascade valleys where some
light to moderate snow is possible. Warming increases Saturday
night into Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain snow
event by Sunday afternoon. In this transition, there is a small
chance of a wintry mix with pockets of freezing rain in a few of
the Cascade valleys. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian
border on Sunday. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with
widespread 40s and a few 50s possible. QPF looks juicy with a
0.25" to 0.40" possible from Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning. Gusty winds will increase Saturday night into Sunday
evening with speeds 25-40 kts across the Columbia Basin. Gusty
winds will continue in the mountains through night, especially in
the Cascades.

Monday through Wednesday...A cold front slides through the region
early Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and
cooler drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the
precipitation will continue to be found near the Cascade crest and
central Panhandle mountains through Monday through Monday evening
and then gradually taper off. A few lingering showers are possible
by early Monday morning across the northern mountains, but for the
most part partial clearing can be expected will allow temperatures
to cool late Monday night and into Tuesday. With the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. In the 00z model runs this feature looks to swing wide
and drops west and south of the region, with the main brunt of the
precipitation found across Oregon. Opted to continue a drier
forecast through mid week with the best chance of snow falling
near the Cascade crest, Blue mountains and central Panhandle
mountains. / rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance will generate light rain at
the KLWS, KPUW, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites through early
Thursday morning. Cigs will deteriorate at most TAF locations
through Thursday morning with MVFR conditions expected at KEAT,
KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE. Drier easterly winds at KPUW and KLWS
are expected to keep these locations at VFR; however, confidence
of VFR conditions persisting at KPUW through Thursday morning is
low. Improving cigs is expected southeast to northwest across the
basin for Thursday afternoon as the next Pacific storm system
approaches and the easterly pressure gradient strengthens. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  36  40  32  39  37 /  30  40  90  10  80  90
Coeur d`Alene  40  34  40  32  39  37 /  60  20 100  20  70 100
Pullman        42  35  43  31  43  41 /  40  40  90  10  70  90
Lewiston       44  35  46  32  45  44 /  40  20  80  10  50  80
Colville       37  34  38  33  37  36 /  30  60 100  20  80 100
Sandpoint      37  34  37  32  37  36 /  60  40 100  30  60 100
Kellogg        38  32  37  30  37  35 /  70  30 100  40  50 100
Moses Lake     42  36  42  32  40  37 /  10  70  70  10  80  80
Wenatchee      39  33  40  31  38  32 /  10  80  50  10  90  80
Omak           38  33  37  30  35  32 /  20  90  80  10  80  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 181024
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...A weak cold front and accompanying
trough is moving through the forecast early this morning and will
be followed by a weak ridge of high pressure today. Radar is
indicating rain and snow showers across the east and southeast
zones this morning as the front moves out of the area. Road
temperatures are warm enough that any snow that does fall should
melt. The exception will be over Lookout Pass where they could get
an inch or two through the early morning. Up-sloping flow will
keep rain and snow showers across the Panhandle through the day
with light accumulations expected, otherwise we should see a brief
break in the weather today. Expect areas of fog and stratus to
linger over the lower elevations and northern valleys through the
morning.

As mentioned above the break will be brief as another wet weather
system will move in off the Pacific tonight and track across the
forecast area on Friday. Moisture is plentiful with PWAT`s rising
to almost 200 percent of normal. South-southeast lower level flow
overnight will overcome the shadow effect off the Cascades and all
areas will see measurable precipitation. The cold front will track
across the region during the day Friday and result in a drying
trend from West to east Friday afternoon.

This same southerly flow will allow warm air to rapidly advect
into the region through the night. So we are expecting mainly
valley rain and mountain snow. The challenge is the cooler air in
the Cascade valleys...chiefly the Methow valley and the Okanogan
valley. Model guidance has been to cool in these valleys the past
few days and it looks like the 00z runs are following that trend.
That does not mean that these valleys will not see snow, just
possibly not as much as expected. This could easily result in a
busted forecast for these valleys. For now it looks like the
Methow valley will pick up 1-3 inches of snow. The current models
sure want to scour out the remainder of the valleys and the
Waterville Plateau as the warm air move through the area. These
areas could still pick up 1-2 inches above 1500-2000 feet before
turning over to rain. For the mountains 2-5 inches are likely with
a few inches more up near the crest of the Cascades. For the
Wenatchee valley and along the Columbia river across to Spokane
and Coeur D`Alene the precipitation could start as wet snow or a
rain/snow mix before turning over to all rain through the night.

Some showers will linger across the Cascade crest and up-sloping
into the Panhandle will keep a pretty good chance of rain and snow
showers Friday night. Otherwise expect drier conditions for the
remainder of the forecast area. Tobin

Saturday through Sunday night...One very wet period. An atmospheric
river will take aim on the Pacific NW. The GFS and ECMWF show
agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading across the region
Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful moisture for most of
the weekend. Pwats of over an inch pool off the coast with up to
0.75" of inch making it east of the Cascades. Again precipitation
type will be tricky. Snow levels will Bbe stubborn in the
northern valleys, especially in the Cascade valleys where some
light to moderate snow is possible. Warming increases Saturday
night into Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain snow
event by Sunday afternoon. In this transition, there is a small
chance of a wintry mix with pockets of freezing rain in a few of
the Cascade valleys. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian
border on Sunday. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with
widespread 40s and a few 50s possible. QPF looks juicy with a
0.25" to 0.40" possible from Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning. Gusty winds will increase Saturday night into Sunday
evening with speeds 25-40 kts across the Columbia Basin. Gusty
winds will continue in the mountains through night, especially in
the Cascades.

Monday through Wednesday...A cold front slides through the region
early Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and
cooler drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the
precipitation will continue to be found near the Cascade crest and
central Panhandle mountains through Monday through Monday evening
and then gradually taper off. A few lingering showers are possible
by early Monday morning across the northern mountains, but for the
most part partial clearing can be expected will allow temperatures
to cool late Monday night and into Tuesday. With the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. In the 00z model runs this feature looks to swing wide
and drops west and south of the region, with the main brunt of the
precipitation found across Oregon. Opted to continue a drier
forecast through mid week with the best chance of snow falling
near the Cascade crest, Blue mountains and central Panhandle
mountains. / rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance will generate light rain at
the KLWS, KPUW, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites through early
Thursday morning. Cigs will deteriorate at most TAF locations
through Thursday morning with MVFR conditions expected at KEAT,
KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE. Drier easterly winds at KPUW and KLWS
are expected to keep these locations at VFR; however, confidence
of VFR conditions persisting at KPUW through Thursday morning is
low. Improving cigs is expected southeast to northwest across the
basin for Thursday afternoon as the next Pacific storm system
approaches and the easterly pressure gradient strengthens. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  36  40  32  39  37 /  30  40  90  10  80  90
Coeur d`Alene  40  34  40  32  39  37 /  60  20 100  20  70 100
Pullman        42  35  43  31  43  41 /  40  40  90  10  70  90
Lewiston       44  35  46  32  45  44 /  40  20  80  10  50  80
Colville       37  34  38  33  37  36 /  30  60 100  20  80 100
Sandpoint      37  34  37  32  37  36 /  60  40 100  30  60 100
Kellogg        38  32  37  30  37  35 /  70  30 100  40  50 100
Moses Lake     42  36  42  32  40  37 /  10  70  70  10  80  80
Wenatchee      39  33  40  31  38  32 /  10  80  50  10  90  80
Omak           38  33  37  30  35  32 /  20  90  80  10  80  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 180556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another round of light precipitation is increasing across the
eastern half of the forecast area late this evening. A mix of rain
and snow can be expected between 2,000 and 2,300 feet across the
Northeast Mtns and in the Northern Panhandle. Around an inch of
snow is expected at lower elevations above 2,500 feet and up
around 2 inches for the mountains across this area. Snow levels
will be a bit higher at around 3,000 feet in the Central Panhandle
Mtns. The main impact for snow across these areas will be for
travelers over Lookout Pass with 1-2 inches of snow possible.
Temperatures will hover around freezing for these areas through
Thursday evening with a slick morning commute possible. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance will generate light rain at
the KLWS, KPUW, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites through early
Thursday morning. Cigs will deteriorate at most TAF locations
through Thursday morning with MVFR conditions expected at KEAT,
KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE. Drier easterly winds at KPUW and KLWS
are expected to keep these locations at VFR; however, confidence
of VFR conditions persisting at KPUW through Thursday morning is
low. Improving cigs is expected southeast to northwest across the
basin for Thursday afternoon as the next Pacific storm system
approaches and the easterly pressure gradient strengthens. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  33  39  31  40 /  50  30  40  90  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  33  40  32  39  32  39 /  50  60  20 100  20  70
Pullman        35  44  34  42  32  43 /  50  40  40  90  10  70
Lewiston       38  46  36  46  33  47 /  40  30  20  70  10  40
Colville       32  37  34  38  32  38 /  50  30  60 100  10  80
Sandpoint      32  37  32  36  31  38 /  60  60  30 100  40  60
Kellogg        32  38  32  36  31  36 /  70  70  20 100  40  60
Moses Lake     34  39  36  42  30  39 /  10  10  70  70  10  70
Wenatchee      33  38  33  40  30  34 /  10  10  70  60  10  70
Omak           30  35  32  37  30  33 /  20  10  80  80  10  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 180556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another round of light precipitation is increasing across the
eastern half of the forecast area late this evening. A mix of rain
and snow can be expected between 2,000 and 2,300 feet across the
Northeast Mtns and in the Northern Panhandle. Around an inch of
snow is expected at lower elevations above 2,500 feet and up
around 2 inches for the mountains across this area. Snow levels
will be a bit higher at around 3,000 feet in the Central Panhandle
Mtns. The main impact for snow across these areas will be for
travelers over Lookout Pass with 1-2 inches of snow possible.
Temperatures will hover around freezing for these areas through
Thursday evening with a slick morning commute possible. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance will generate light rain at
the KLWS, KPUW, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites through early
Thursday morning. Cigs will deteriorate at most TAF locations
through Thursday morning with MVFR conditions expected at KEAT,
KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE. Drier easterly winds at KPUW and KLWS
are expected to keep these locations at VFR; however, confidence
of VFR conditions persisting at KPUW through Thursday morning is
low. Improving cigs is expected southeast to northwest across the
basin for Thursday afternoon as the next Pacific storm system
approaches and the easterly pressure gradient strengthens. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  33  39  31  40 /  50  30  40  90  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  33  40  32  39  32  39 /  50  60  20 100  20  70
Pullman        35  44  34  42  32  43 /  50  40  40  90  10  70
Lewiston       38  46  36  46  33  47 /  40  30  20  70  10  40
Colville       32  37  34  38  32  38 /  50  30  60 100  10  80
Sandpoint      32  37  32  36  31  38 /  60  60  30 100  40  60
Kellogg        32  38  32  36  31  36 /  70  70  20 100  40  60
Moses Lake     34  39  36  42  30  39 /  10  10  70  70  10  70
Wenatchee      33  38  33  40  30  34 /  10  10  70  60  10  70
Omak           30  35  32  37  30  33 /  20  10  80  80  10  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 172356
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
356 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...A number of small weak disturbances running
across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho through tonight and
tomorrow. They are very difficult to pick out in some of the
models as there is too much clutter in the flow associated with
the weakening baroclinic band upon where these disturbances are
located near that is currently passing through the area. They
haven`t been showing up too well in the radar either as they have
been far enough away for most of the day for the base elevation
beam to get a return on as well. Best bet to find these features
has been the IR satellite imagery on a fast rock and picking out
the small scale rotation and cloud top cooling. One such feature
is moving northeast this afternoon and is causing precipitation
just east of Moses Lake up to Omak and some points to the north
and east. A second feature, appearing to almost be a southern part
of the splitting/weakening baroclinic band has brought light rain
to Lewiston. All of these disturbances translate to the Northeast
and East at varying times tonight and tomorrow and as such the
pops and QPF show a general favoring of locations to the North and
East (including locations near Spokane down to Pullman) to receive
some precipitation but as expected the amounts are not too
significant...still it doesn`t take too much liquid to pool on
pavement that in turn cools overnight to allow for slick
conditions in spots similar to what occurred this morning.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Sunday...An active weather pattern is
expected especially over the weekend with two systems to impacts
the Inland Northwest during this forecast period.

Thursday night/Friday: A large upper low seen on Infrared
Satellite Imagery in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast
sending a cold front across the area. The timing of the front
tracks into Central Washington Thursday night during the overnight
hours...reaching Eastern Washington and North Idaho Friday
morning. A north-south oriented jet parallel to the front and
southerly low/mid level flow will minimize downslope flow with all
areas likely to receive some precipitation. Inspection of model
soundings suggest this to be a mainly valley rain or rain/snow
mix...with snow in the mountains. 850mb winds backing to the south
will aid in bring up warmer air from the south. However a wedge of
cooler air trapped along the East Slopes of the Cascades will
result in lower snow levels over North Central Washington with the
potential for 2-3 inches of snow accumulation above 1000-1500
feet. This includes the Methow Valley, Plain, Waterville Plateau,
higher portions of Omak, and Republic. The Wenatchee area and
lower portions of the Okanogan and Columbia River valleys are
expected to see mainly a rain/snow mix or wet non-accumulating
snow. The mountains will generally see 2-5 inches of snow with the
Cascades seeing the highest amounts.

Saturday through Sunday...A much stronger system is expected this
weekend bringing a wide variety of expected weather. The models
continue to show an atmospheric river as a subtropical moisture
fetch becomes aimed at the area. The leading edge of this moisture
will enter on Saturday in the form of a warm front. Strong
isentropic lift will result in the development of widespread
rain and snow. 850mb winds backing to the south-southeast will
favor upslope flow into the northern mountains, with cooler air
remaining banked up into the Cascades, Okanogan Valley, and
Okanogan Highlands. Models suggest the potential for moderate to
locally heavy snow accumulations in these areas along and ahead of
the warm front before snow levels rise from south to north
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow levels will be fast to
rise from Interstate 90 south with precip expected to fall as
mainly valley rain and mountain snow. The valleys north of Spokane
such as Colville, Metaline Falls, Priest Lake, and Bonners Ferry
may start off as snow on Saturday with light accumulations...before
changing to rain Saturday night. As the warmer air aloft pokes
into the Cascades Saturday night...the valleys will likely have a
hard time mixing out with freezing rain possible especially south
of Lake Chelan in places like Plain and Leavenworth.

On Sunday the atmospheric river shifts south near the
Washington/Oregon border with strong westerly flow over the area.
This will lead to a strong rain shadow east of the Cascades with
precipitation likely confined mainly to the Cascade crest, Idaho
Panhandle, and southeast Washington. 850mb winds of 25-35 kts and
possible sun breaks across the Columbia Basin...and 850mb temps of
3-6C could lead to very mild temperatures along with breezy to
windy conditions. For now went a bit above MOS guidance which
usually does not go warm enough in these situations. JW

Sunday Nt through Christmas Eve: Following the passage of the windy
and wet short-wave trough that will move through broad upper
ridging Sunday Nt, what`s left of a stalled cold frontal boundary
will remain over Nrn Oregon and extreme Srn Wa Tues and keep the
threat of pcpn in the fcst for the Lewiston area as well as the Camas
Prairie. Where this front stalls will be critical as far as the
Christmas Eve fcst, because it is this boundary that will combine
with a significant short-wave trough and vort max moving into the
region as it translates SE down the BC coast. Deep cyclogenesis is
fcst by most model guidance over Ern Oregon Wednesday as the flow
backs and increases lift over the aforementioned boundary. As
pressure gradients increase, cold air will then begin to move into
Ern Wa from Srn Bc. Though it`s unusual even to see modest amnts
of agreement among models as to the placement of this deep low 7
days out, there still are enough differences how far south the
low will track that still make our level of confidence low as to where
potentially heavy snow bands may set up Christmas Eve. The trend,
however, has been slightly south which would keep the higher snow
threat out of Nrn Wa. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance is generating light precip
across eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle late this afternoon.
This wave will begin to exit over the course of this evening, but
will be followed by another overnight with more light precip to
fill in across the region. Low level winds will also veer through
tonight, which will result in more favorable upslope flow for
stratus formation. Expect cigs/vis to deteriorate tonight at
KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW with IFR/MVFR conditions and localized
LIFR conditions possible. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  37  33  39  31  40 /  50  30  40  90  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  33  38  32  39  32  39 /  60  60  20 100  20  70
Pullman        33  43  34  42  32  43 /  50  40  40  90  10  70
Lewiston       35  45  36  46  33  47 /  40  30  20  70  10  40
Colville       32  37  34  38  32  38 /  60  30  60 100  10  80
Sandpoint      32  37  32  36  31  38 /  60  60  30 100  40  60
Kellogg        32  38  32  36  31  36 /  70  70  20 100  40  60
Moses Lake     29  39  36  42  30  39 /  20  10  70  70  10  70
Wenatchee      31  37  33  40  30  34 /  30  10  70  60  10  70
Omak           27  34  32  37  30  33 /  40  10  80  80  10  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 172356
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
356 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...A number of small weak disturbances running
across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho through tonight and
tomorrow. They are very difficult to pick out in some of the
models as there is too much clutter in the flow associated with
the weakening baroclinic band upon where these disturbances are
located near that is currently passing through the area. They
haven`t been showing up too well in the radar either as they have
been far enough away for most of the day for the base elevation
beam to get a return on as well. Best bet to find these features
has been the IR satellite imagery on a fast rock and picking out
the small scale rotation and cloud top cooling. One such feature
is moving northeast this afternoon and is causing precipitation
just east of Moses Lake up to Omak and some points to the north
and east. A second feature, appearing to almost be a southern part
of the splitting/weakening baroclinic band has brought light rain
to Lewiston. All of these disturbances translate to the Northeast
and East at varying times tonight and tomorrow and as such the
pops and QPF show a general favoring of locations to the North and
East (including locations near Spokane down to Pullman) to receive
some precipitation but as expected the amounts are not too
significant...still it doesn`t take too much liquid to pool on
pavement that in turn cools overnight to allow for slick
conditions in spots similar to what occurred this morning.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Sunday...An active weather pattern is
expected especially over the weekend with two systems to impacts
the Inland Northwest during this forecast period.

Thursday night/Friday: A large upper low seen on Infrared
Satellite Imagery in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast
sending a cold front across the area. The timing of the front
tracks into Central Washington Thursday night during the overnight
hours...reaching Eastern Washington and North Idaho Friday
morning. A north-south oriented jet parallel to the front and
southerly low/mid level flow will minimize downslope flow with all
areas likely to receive some precipitation. Inspection of model
soundings suggest this to be a mainly valley rain or rain/snow
mix...with snow in the mountains. 850mb winds backing to the south
will aid in bring up warmer air from the south. However a wedge of
cooler air trapped along the East Slopes of the Cascades will
result in lower snow levels over North Central Washington with the
potential for 2-3 inches of snow accumulation above 1000-1500
feet. This includes the Methow Valley, Plain, Waterville Plateau,
higher portions of Omak, and Republic. The Wenatchee area and
lower portions of the Okanogan and Columbia River valleys are
expected to see mainly a rain/snow mix or wet non-accumulating
snow. The mountains will generally see 2-5 inches of snow with the
Cascades seeing the highest amounts.

Saturday through Sunday...A much stronger system is expected this
weekend bringing a wide variety of expected weather. The models
continue to show an atmospheric river as a subtropical moisture
fetch becomes aimed at the area. The leading edge of this moisture
will enter on Saturday in the form of a warm front. Strong
isentropic lift will result in the development of widespread
rain and snow. 850mb winds backing to the south-southeast will
favor upslope flow into the northern mountains, with cooler air
remaining banked up into the Cascades, Okanogan Valley, and
Okanogan Highlands. Models suggest the potential for moderate to
locally heavy snow accumulations in these areas along and ahead of
the warm front before snow levels rise from south to north
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow levels will be fast to
rise from Interstate 90 south with precip expected to fall as
mainly valley rain and mountain snow. The valleys north of Spokane
such as Colville, Metaline Falls, Priest Lake, and Bonners Ferry
may start off as snow on Saturday with light accumulations...before
changing to rain Saturday night. As the warmer air aloft pokes
into the Cascades Saturday night...the valleys will likely have a
hard time mixing out with freezing rain possible especially south
of Lake Chelan in places like Plain and Leavenworth.

On Sunday the atmospheric river shifts south near the
Washington/Oregon border with strong westerly flow over the area.
This will lead to a strong rain shadow east of the Cascades with
precipitation likely confined mainly to the Cascade crest, Idaho
Panhandle, and southeast Washington. 850mb winds of 25-35 kts and
possible sun breaks across the Columbia Basin...and 850mb temps of
3-6C could lead to very mild temperatures along with breezy to
windy conditions. For now went a bit above MOS guidance which
usually does not go warm enough in these situations. JW

Sunday Nt through Christmas Eve: Following the passage of the windy
and wet short-wave trough that will move through broad upper
ridging Sunday Nt, what`s left of a stalled cold frontal boundary
will remain over Nrn Oregon and extreme Srn Wa Tues and keep the
threat of pcpn in the fcst for the Lewiston area as well as the Camas
Prairie. Where this front stalls will be critical as far as the
Christmas Eve fcst, because it is this boundary that will combine
with a significant short-wave trough and vort max moving into the
region as it translates SE down the BC coast. Deep cyclogenesis is
fcst by most model guidance over Ern Oregon Wednesday as the flow
backs and increases lift over the aforementioned boundary. As
pressure gradients increase, cold air will then begin to move into
Ern Wa from Srn Bc. Though it`s unusual even to see modest amnts
of agreement among models as to the placement of this deep low 7
days out, there still are enough differences how far south the
low will track that still make our level of confidence low as to where
potentially heavy snow bands may set up Christmas Eve. The trend,
however, has been slightly south which would keep the higher snow
threat out of Nrn Wa. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance is generating light precip
across eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle late this afternoon.
This wave will begin to exit over the course of this evening, but
will be followed by another overnight with more light precip to
fill in across the region. Low level winds will also veer through
tonight, which will result in more favorable upslope flow for
stratus formation. Expect cigs/vis to deteriorate tonight at
KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW with IFR/MVFR conditions and localized
LIFR conditions possible. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  37  33  39  31  40 /  50  30  40  90  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  33  38  32  39  32  39 /  60  60  20 100  20  70
Pullman        33  43  34  42  32  43 /  50  40  40  90  10  70
Lewiston       35  45  36  46  33  47 /  40  30  20  70  10  40
Colville       32  37  34  38  32  38 /  60  30  60 100  10  80
Sandpoint      32  37  32  36  31  38 /  60  60  30 100  40  60
Kellogg        32  38  32  36  31  36 /  70  70  20 100  40  60
Moses Lake     29  39  36  42  30  39 /  20  10  70  70  10  70
Wenatchee      31  37  33  40  30  34 /  30  10  70  60  10  70
Omak           27  34  32  37  30  33 /  40  10  80  80  10  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 172252
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...A number of small weak disturbances running
across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho through tonight and
tomorrow. They are very difficult to pick out in some of the
models as there is too much clutter in the flow associated with
the weakening baroclinic band upon where these disturbances are
located near that is currently passing through the area. They
haven`t been showing up too well in the radar either as they have
been far enough away for most of the day for the base elevation
beam to get a return on as well. Best bet to find these features
has been the IR satellite imagery on a fast rock and picking out
the small scale rotation and cloud top cooling. One such feature
is moving northeast this afternoon and is causing precipitation
just east of Moses Lake up to Omak and some points to the north
and east. A second feature, appearing to almost be a southern part
of the splitting/weakening baroclinic band has brought light rain
to Lewiston. All of these disturbances translate to the Northeast
and East at varying times tonight and tomorrow and as such the
pops and QPF show a general favoring of locations to the North and
East (including locations near Spokane down to Pullman) to receive
some precipitation but as expected the amounts are not too
significant...still it doesn`t take too much liquid to pool on
pavement that in turn cools overnight to allow for slick
conditions in spots similar to what occurred this morning.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Sunday...An active weather pattern is
expected especially over the weekend with two systems to impacts
the Inland Northwest during this forecast period.

Thursday night/Friday: A large upper low seen on Infrared
Satellite Imagery in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast
sending a cold front across the area. The timing of the front
tracks into Central Washington Thursday night during the overnight
hours...reaching Eastern Washington and North Idaho Friday
morning. A north-south oriented jet parallel to the front and
southerly low/mid level flow will minimize downslope flow with all
areas likely to receive some precipitation. Inspection of model
soundings suggest this to be a mainly valley rain or rain/snow
mix...with snow in the mountains. 850mb winds backing to the south
will aid in bring up warmer air from the south. However a wedge of
cooler air trapped along the East Slopes of the Cascades will
result in lower snow levels over North Central Washington with the
potential for 2-3 inches of snow accumulation above 1000-1500
feet. This includes the Methow Valley, Plain, Waterville Plateau,
higher portions of Omak, and Republic. The Wenatchee area and
lower portions of the Okanogan and Columbia River valleys are
expected to see mainly a rain/snow mix or wet non-accumulating
snow. The mountains will generally see 2-5 inches of snow with the
Cascades seeing the highest amounts.

Saturday through Sunday...A much stronger system is expected this
weekend bringing a wide variety of expected weather. The models
continue to show an atmospheric river as a subtropical moisture
fetch becomes aimed at the area. The leading edge of this moisture
will enter on Saturday in the form of a warm front. Strong
isentropic lift will result in the development of widespread
rain and snow. 850mb winds backing to the south-southeast will
favor upslope flow into the northern mountains, with cooler air
remaining banked up into the Cascades, Okanogan Valley, and
Okanogan Highlands. Models suggest the potential for moderate to
locally heavy snow accumulations in these areas along and ahead of
the warm front before snow levels rise from south to north
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow levels will be fast to
rise from Interstate 90 south with precip expected to fall as
mainly valley rain and mountain snow. The valleys north of Spokane
such as Colville, Metaline Falls, Priest Lake, and Bonners Ferry
may start off as snow on Saturday with light accumulations...before
changing to rain Saturday night. As the warmer air aloft pokes
into the Cascades Saturday night...the valleys will likely have a
hard time mixing out with freezing rain possible especially south
of Lake Chelan in places like Plain and Leavenworth.

On Sunday the atmospheric river shifts south near the
Washington/Oregon border with strong westerly flow over the area.
This will lead to a strong rain shadow east of the Cascades with
precipitation likely confined mainly to the Cascade crest, Idaho
Panhandle, and southeast Washington. 850mb winds of 25-35 kts and
possible sun breaks across the Columbia Basin...and 850mb temps of
3-6C could lead to very mild temperatures along with breezy to
windy conditions. For now went a bit above MOS guidance which
usually does not go warm enough in these situations. JW

Sunday Nt through Christmas Eve: Following the passage of the windy
and wet short-wave trough that will move through broad upper
ridging Sunday Nt, what`s left of a stalled cold frontal boundary
will remain over Nrn Oregon and extreme Srn Wa Tues and keep the
threat of pcpn in the fcst for the Lewiston area as well as the Camas
Prairie. Where this front stalls will be critical as far as the
Christmas Eve fcst, because it is this boundary that will combine
with a significant short-wave trough and vort max moving into the
region as it translates SE down the BC coast. Deep cyclogenesis is
fcst by most model guidance over Ern Oregon Wednesday as the flow
backs and increases lift over the aforementioned boundary. As
pressure gradients increase, cold air will then begin to move into
Ern Wa from Srn Bc. Though it`s unusual even to see modest amnts
of agreement among models as to the placement of this deep low 7
days out, there still are enough differences how far south the
low will track that still make our level of confidence low as to where
potentially heavy snow bands may set up Christmas Eve. The trend,
however, has been slightly south which would keep the higher snow
threat out of Nrn Wa. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak disturbances drifting northeast and over the
aviation over the next 24 hours keep the forecast somewhat
cluttered with mentions of both rain and snow at times which
produce IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Some fog will
occasionally impact locations as well. Precipitation still on the
light side with the higher amounts primarily near the East Slopes
of the North Cascades out to the Waterville Plateau and points to
the north/northeast. The KGEG area will be more MVFR most of the
time as the precipitation will be light and likely to be rain.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  37  33  39  31  40 /  50  30  40  90  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  33  38  32  39  32  39 /  60  60  20 100  20  70
Pullman        33  43  34  42  32  43 /  50  40  40  90  10  70
Lewiston       35  45  36  46  33  47 /  40  30  20  70  10  40
Colville       32  37  34  38  32  38 /  60  30  60 100  10  80
Sandpoint      32  37  32  36  31  38 /  60  60  30 100  40  60
Kellogg        32  38  32  36  31  36 /  70  70  20 100  40  60
Moses Lake     29  39  36  42  30  39 /  20  10  70  70  10  70
Wenatchee      31  37  33  40  30  34 /  30  10  70  60  10  70
Omak           27  34  32  37  30  33 /  40  10  80  80  10  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 172252
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will continue through the end of the
week with periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or
snow in the valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south
will see mainly rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the
Canadian border will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather
system over the weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with
sharply rising snow levels...as well as the potential for windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...A number of small weak disturbances running
across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho through tonight and
tomorrow. They are very difficult to pick out in some of the
models as there is too much clutter in the flow associated with
the weakening baroclinic band upon where these disturbances are
located near that is currently passing through the area. They
haven`t been showing up too well in the radar either as they have
been far enough away for most of the day for the base elevation
beam to get a return on as well. Best bet to find these features
has been the IR satellite imagery on a fast rock and picking out
the small scale rotation and cloud top cooling. One such feature
is moving northeast this afternoon and is causing precipitation
just east of Moses Lake up to Omak and some points to the north
and east. A second feature, appearing to almost be a southern part
of the splitting/weakening baroclinic band has brought light rain
to Lewiston. All of these disturbances translate to the Northeast
and East at varying times tonight and tomorrow and as such the
pops and QPF show a general favoring of locations to the North and
East (including locations near Spokane down to Pullman) to receive
some precipitation but as expected the amounts are not too
significant...still it doesn`t take too much liquid to pool on
pavement that in turn cools overnight to allow for slick
conditions in spots similar to what occurred this morning.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Sunday...An active weather pattern is
expected especially over the weekend with two systems to impacts
the Inland Northwest during this forecast period.

Thursday night/Friday: A large upper low seen on Infrared
Satellite Imagery in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast
sending a cold front across the area. The timing of the front
tracks into Central Washington Thursday night during the overnight
hours...reaching Eastern Washington and North Idaho Friday
morning. A north-south oriented jet parallel to the front and
southerly low/mid level flow will minimize downslope flow with all
areas likely to receive some precipitation. Inspection of model
soundings suggest this to be a mainly valley rain or rain/snow
mix...with snow in the mountains. 850mb winds backing to the south
will aid in bring up warmer air from the south. However a wedge of
cooler air trapped along the East Slopes of the Cascades will
result in lower snow levels over North Central Washington with the
potential for 2-3 inches of snow accumulation above 1000-1500
feet. This includes the Methow Valley, Plain, Waterville Plateau,
higher portions of Omak, and Republic. The Wenatchee area and
lower portions of the Okanogan and Columbia River valleys are
expected to see mainly a rain/snow mix or wet non-accumulating
snow. The mountains will generally see 2-5 inches of snow with the
Cascades seeing the highest amounts.

Saturday through Sunday...A much stronger system is expected this
weekend bringing a wide variety of expected weather. The models
continue to show an atmospheric river as a subtropical moisture
fetch becomes aimed at the area. The leading edge of this moisture
will enter on Saturday in the form of a warm front. Strong
isentropic lift will result in the development of widespread
rain and snow. 850mb winds backing to the south-southeast will
favor upslope flow into the northern mountains, with cooler air
remaining banked up into the Cascades, Okanogan Valley, and
Okanogan Highlands. Models suggest the potential for moderate to
locally heavy snow accumulations in these areas along and ahead of
the warm front before snow levels rise from south to north
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow levels will be fast to
rise from Interstate 90 south with precip expected to fall as
mainly valley rain and mountain snow. The valleys north of Spokane
such as Colville, Metaline Falls, Priest Lake, and Bonners Ferry
may start off as snow on Saturday with light accumulations...before
changing to rain Saturday night. As the warmer air aloft pokes
into the Cascades Saturday night...the valleys will likely have a
hard time mixing out with freezing rain possible especially south
of Lake Chelan in places like Plain and Leavenworth.

On Sunday the atmospheric river shifts south near the
Washington/Oregon border with strong westerly flow over the area.
This will lead to a strong rain shadow east of the Cascades with
precipitation likely confined mainly to the Cascade crest, Idaho
Panhandle, and southeast Washington. 850mb winds of 25-35 kts and
possible sun breaks across the Columbia Basin...and 850mb temps of
3-6C could lead to very mild temperatures along with breezy to
windy conditions. For now went a bit above MOS guidance which
usually does not go warm enough in these situations. JW

Sunday Nt through Christmas Eve: Following the passage of the windy
and wet short-wave trough that will move through broad upper
ridging Sunday Nt, what`s left of a stalled cold frontal boundary
will remain over Nrn Oregon and extreme Srn Wa Tues and keep the
threat of pcpn in the fcst for the Lewiston area as well as the Camas
Prairie. Where this front stalls will be critical as far as the
Christmas Eve fcst, because it is this boundary that will combine
with a significant short-wave trough and vort max moving into the
region as it translates SE down the BC coast. Deep cyclogenesis is
fcst by most model guidance over Ern Oregon Wednesday as the flow
backs and increases lift over the aforementioned boundary. As
pressure gradients increase, cold air will then begin to move into
Ern Wa from Srn Bc. Though it`s unusual even to see modest amnts
of agreement among models as to the placement of this deep low 7
days out, there still are enough differences how far south the
low will track that still make our level of confidence low as to where
potentially heavy snow bands may set up Christmas Eve. The trend,
however, has been slightly south which would keep the higher snow
threat out of Nrn Wa. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak disturbances drifting northeast and over the
aviation over the next 24 hours keep the forecast somewhat
cluttered with mentions of both rain and snow at times which
produce IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Some fog will
occasionally impact locations as well. Precipitation still on the
light side with the higher amounts primarily near the East Slopes
of the North Cascades out to the Waterville Plateau and points to
the north/northeast. The KGEG area will be more MVFR most of the
time as the precipitation will be light and likely to be rain.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  37  33  39  31  40 /  50  30  40  90  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  33  38  32  39  32  39 /  60  60  20 100  20  70
Pullman        33  43  34  42  32  43 /  50  40  40  90  10  70
Lewiston       35  45  36  46  33  47 /  40  30  20  70  10  40
Colville       32  37  34  38  32  38 /  60  30  60 100  10  80
Sandpoint      32  37  32  36  31  38 /  60  60  30 100  40  60
Kellogg        32  38  32  36  31  36 /  70  70  20 100  40  60
Moses Lake     29  39  36  42  30  39 /  20  10  70  70  10  70
Wenatchee      31  37  33  40  30  34 /  30  10  70  60  10  70
Omak           27  34  32  37  30  33 /  40  10  80  80  10  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 171736
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to increase pops and snow amounts for Wenatchee and
Waterville Plateau area as radar likly missing the stronger
returns as snow falls from lower cloud deck in that area. The wave
is weak and moving northeast. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak disturbances drifting northeast and over the
aviation over the next 24 hours keep the forecast somewhat
cluttered with mentions of both rain and snow at times which
produce IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Some fog will
occasionally impact locations as well. Precipitation still on the
light side with the higher amounts primarily near the East Slopes
of the North Cascades out to the Waterville Plateau and points to
the north/northeast. The KGEG area will be more MVFR most of the
time as the precipitation will be light and likely to be rain.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 / 100  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171736
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to increase pops and snow amounts for Wenatchee and
Waterville Plateau area as radar likly missing the stronger
returns as snow falls from lower cloud deck in that area. The wave
is weak and moving northeast. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak disturbances drifting northeast and over the
aviation over the next 24 hours keep the forecast somewhat
cluttered with mentions of both rain and snow at times which
produce IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Some fog will
occasionally impact locations as well. Precipitation still on the
light side with the higher amounts primarily near the East Slopes
of the North Cascades out to the Waterville Plateau and points to
the north/northeast. The KGEG area will be more MVFR most of the
time as the precipitation will be light and likely to be rain.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 / 100  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 171603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
803 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to increase pops and snow amounts for Wenatchee and
Waterville Plateau area as radar likly missing the stronger
returns as snow falls from lower cloud deck in that area. The wave
is weak and moving northeast. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few light flurries will be possible north of Spokane
through 15z...and snow will be on the increase near the crest of
the Cascades this morning as well. A northeast surface gradient
has scoured out the fog for all the TAF sites except for KEAT.
The stratus has also lifted into a mid level deck with VFR
conditions. KEAT is still in the fog and stratus with
MVFR cigs/vsby. The next weather disturbance will push across the
region later this morning. Light rain is expected at KEAT and
KMWH by mid morning. Behind the precipitation fog/stratus is once
again expected for KEAT/KMWH after 03z with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby.
Precipitation...as mainly rain will hold for the eastern TAF
sites until late this afternoon and linger into the evening. MVFR
cigs/vsby expected with the rain. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 / 100  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
803 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to increase pops and snow amounts for Wenatchee and
Waterville Plateau area as radar likly missing the stronger
returns as snow falls from lower cloud deck in that area. The wave
is weak and moving northeast. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few light flurries will be possible north of Spokane
through 15z...and snow will be on the increase near the crest of
the Cascades this morning as well. A northeast surface gradient
has scoured out the fog for all the TAF sites except for KEAT.
The stratus has also lifted into a mid level deck with VFR
conditions. KEAT is still in the fog and stratus with
MVFR cigs/vsby. The next weather disturbance will push across the
region later this morning. Light rain is expected at KEAT and
KMWH by mid morning. Behind the precipitation fog/stratus is once
again expected for KEAT/KMWH after 03z with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby.
Precipitation...as mainly rain will hold for the eastern TAF
sites until late this afternoon and linger into the evening. MVFR
cigs/vsby expected with the rain. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 / 100  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 171156
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The region will continue to be
under the influence of a split and ragged upper level trough
today and tonight. Again a couple of weak waves will move through
the forecast area and result in periods of light precipitation.
Cooler air banked up against the Cascades continues to make snow
level forecast a challenge. The 00z guidance came in with wet bulb
temperatures down around 30F when in fact the wet bulbs are in the
low to mid 30s. I most likely kept snow levels a little to low
across the areas for this morning, otherwise snow levels are
anywhere from 2500 to around 4000 feet across the area. So any
precipitation will be valley rain...possibly mixed with a little
snow for the Methow and up near Ardnevoir and mountain snow.
Precipitation amounts will remain light with a few hundredths in
the basin and lower valleys and possibly up to a tenth in the
mountains. Snow accumulations even for the mountains will only be
an inch or two.

Precipitation chances will then be on the decrease from the west
for the remainder of the night and Thursday as a short lived ridge
of high pressure builds into the region. Some pops were kept in
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, but again
accumulations should remain light with light snow above 3500 feet
for the Panhandle. Fog and stratus will likely develop through
the night and Thursday morning with a saturated boundary layer and
light south-southwest winds.

The next system will move towards the region Thursday night and
increase Pacific moisture. Snow levels for the valleys near the
Cascades will again be problematic. I don`t see any freezing rain
at this time but precipitation probably as a snow or snow/rain mix
for those valleys and snow above 3000-3500 feet. Some of the
higher locations in the Cascades could see 3-5 inches of fresh
snow by early Friday morning. Tobin

Friday and Friday night...The next in a series of Pacific weather
systems pushes across the Inland Northwest on Friday with a warm
front followed closely by an occluded front Friday evening. This
one looks to be a little stronger and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with light snow in the morning,
turning to valley rain and mountain snow by afternoon. There looks
to be the potential for up to an inch in the northern valleys,
while the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. Drying occurs
behind the front Friday night with a brief break in the
precipitation and light winds.

Saturday through Sunday night...This still looks to be a wettest
period as an atmospheric river takes aim on the Pacific NW. The
GFS and ECMWF show agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading
across the region Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful
moisture for most of the weekend. Again precipitation type will be
tricky, initially with valley snow possible in the valley northern
valleys especially in the Cascade valleys. Warming increases
Saturday night into Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain
snow event by Sunday afternoon. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the
Canadian border on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C poke into the
Columbia Basin. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with
widespread 40s and a few 50s possible. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is possible with juicy QPF amounts of 0.25" to 0.40" during a 24
hour period Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will increase by
Sunday evening with speeds 25-35 kts across the Columbia Basin.
Could even see some gusty mountain winds across the Cascades by
Sunday night. POPs and QPF amounts have been raised and winds
bumped for this period.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front slides through the region
Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and cooler
drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the precipitation
will be found in the Cascades and Panhandle mountains through
Monday morning and then gradually taper off. Drier conditions and
clearing will allow temperatures to cool Monday night. This will
set the stage for the next weather system. Under the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. A warm front will spread light precipitation across
eastern Washington by Tuesday. Based on low level temperatures,
there is good chance that the precipitation type will start off as
snow for most areas. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few light flurries will be possible north of Spokane
through 15z...and snow will be on the increase near the crest of
the Cascades this morning as well. A northeast surface gradient
has scoured out the fog for all the TAF sites except for KEAT.
The stratus has also lifted into a mid level deck with VFR
conditions. KEAT is still in the fog and stratus with
MVFR cigs/vsby. The next weather disturbance will push across the
region later this morning. Light rain is expected at KEAT and
KMWH by mid morning. Behind the precipitation fog/stratus is once
again expected for KEAT/KMWH after 03z with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby.
Precipitation...as mainly rain will hold for the eastern TAF
sites until late this afternoon and linger into the evening. MVFR
cigs/vsby expected with the rain. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 /  50  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171156
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The region will continue to be
under the influence of a split and ragged upper level trough
today and tonight. Again a couple of weak waves will move through
the forecast area and result in periods of light precipitation.
Cooler air banked up against the Cascades continues to make snow
level forecast a challenge. The 00z guidance came in with wet bulb
temperatures down around 30F when in fact the wet bulbs are in the
low to mid 30s. I most likely kept snow levels a little to low
across the areas for this morning, otherwise snow levels are
anywhere from 2500 to around 4000 feet across the area. So any
precipitation will be valley rain...possibly mixed with a little
snow for the Methow and up near Ardnevoir and mountain snow.
Precipitation amounts will remain light with a few hundredths in
the basin and lower valleys and possibly up to a tenth in the
mountains. Snow accumulations even for the mountains will only be
an inch or two.

Precipitation chances will then be on the decrease from the west
for the remainder of the night and Thursday as a short lived ridge
of high pressure builds into the region. Some pops were kept in
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, but again
accumulations should remain light with light snow above 3500 feet
for the Panhandle. Fog and stratus will likely develop through
the night and Thursday morning with a saturated boundary layer and
light south-southwest winds.

The next system will move towards the region Thursday night and
increase Pacific moisture. Snow levels for the valleys near the
Cascades will again be problematic. I don`t see any freezing rain
at this time but precipitation probably as a snow or snow/rain mix
for those valleys and snow above 3000-3500 feet. Some of the
higher locations in the Cascades could see 3-5 inches of fresh
snow by early Friday morning. Tobin

Friday and Friday night...The next in a series of Pacific weather
systems pushes across the Inland Northwest on Friday with a warm
front followed closely by an occluded front Friday evening. This
one looks to be a little stronger and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with light snow in the morning,
turning to valley rain and mountain snow by afternoon. There looks
to be the potential for up to an inch in the northern valleys,
while the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. Drying occurs
behind the front Friday night with a brief break in the
precipitation and light winds.

Saturday through Sunday night...This still looks to be a wettest
period as an atmospheric river takes aim on the Pacific NW. The
GFS and ECMWF show agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading
across the region Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful
moisture for most of the weekend. Again precipitation type will be
tricky, initially with valley snow possible in the valley northern
valleys especially in the Cascade valleys. Warming increases
Saturday night into Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain
snow event by Sunday afternoon. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the
Canadian border on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C poke into the
Columbia Basin. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with
widespread 40s and a few 50s possible. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is possible with juicy QPF amounts of 0.25" to 0.40" during a 24
hour period Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will increase by
Sunday evening with speeds 25-35 kts across the Columbia Basin.
Could even see some gusty mountain winds across the Cascades by
Sunday night. POPs and QPF amounts have been raised and winds
bumped for this period.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front slides through the region
Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and cooler
drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the precipitation
will be found in the Cascades and Panhandle mountains through
Monday morning and then gradually taper off. Drier conditions and
clearing will allow temperatures to cool Monday night. This will
set the stage for the next weather system. Under the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. A warm front will spread light precipitation across
eastern Washington by Tuesday. Based on low level temperatures,
there is good chance that the precipitation type will start off as
snow for most areas. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A few light flurries will be possible north of Spokane
through 15z...and snow will be on the increase near the crest of
the Cascades this morning as well. A northeast surface gradient
has scoured out the fog for all the TAF sites except for KEAT.
The stratus has also lifted into a mid level deck with VFR
conditions. KEAT is still in the fog and stratus with
MVFR cigs/vsby. The next weather disturbance will push across the
region later this morning. Light rain is expected at KEAT and
KMWH by mid morning. Behind the precipitation fog/stratus is once
again expected for KEAT/KMWH after 03z with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby.
Precipitation...as mainly rain will hold for the eastern TAF
sites until late this afternoon and linger into the evening. MVFR
cigs/vsby expected with the rain. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 /  50  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 171024
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The region will continue to be
under the influence of a split and ragged upper level trough
today and tonight. Again a couple of weak waves will move through
the forecast area and result in periods of light precipitation.
Cooler air banked up against the Cascades continues to make snow
level forecast a challenge. The 00z guidance came in with wet bulb
temperatures down around 30F when in fact the wet bulbs are in the
low to mid 30s. I most likely kept snow levels a little to low
across the areas for this morning, otherwise snow levels are
anywhere from 2500 to around 4000 feet across the area. So any
precipitation will be valley rain...possibly mixed with a little
snow for the Methow and up near Ardnevoir and mountain snow.
Precipitation amounts will remain light with a few hundredths in
the basin and lower valleys and possibly up to a tenth in the
mountains. Snow accumulations even for the mountains will only be
an inch or two.

Precipitation chances will then be on the decrease from the west
for the remainder of the night and Thursday as a short lived ridge
of high pressure builds into the region. Some pops were kept in
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, but again
accumulations should remain light with light snow above 3500 feet
for the Panhandle. Fog and stratus will likely develop through
the night and Thursday morning with a saturated boundary layer and
light south-southwest winds.

The next system will move towards the region Thursday night and
increase Pacific moisture. Snow levels for the valleys near the
Cascades will again be problematic. I don`t see any freezing rain
at this time but precipitation probably as a snow or snow/rain mix
for those valleys and snow above 3000-3500 feet. Some of the
higher locations in the Cascades could see 3-5 inches of fresh
snow by early Friday morning. Tobin

Friday and Friday night...The next in a series of Pacific weather
systems pushes across the Inland Northwest on Friday with a warm
front followed closely by an occluded front Friday evening. This
one looks to be a little stronger and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with light snow in the morning,
turning to valley rain and mountain snow by afternoon. There looks
to be the potential for up to an inch in the northern valleys,
while the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. Drying occurs
behind the front Friday night with a brief break in the
precipitation and light winds.

Saturday through Sunday night...This still looks to be a wettest
period as an atmospheric river takes aim on the Pacific NW. The
GFS and ECMWF show agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading
across the region Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful
moisture for most of the weekend. Again precipitation type will be
tricky, initially with valley snow possible in the valley northern
valleys especially in the Cascade valleys. Warming increases
Saturday night into Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain
snow event by Sunday afternoon. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the
Canadian border on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C poke into the
Columbia Basin. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with
widespread 40s and a few 50s possible. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is possible with juicy QPF amounts of 0.25" to 0.40" during a 24
hour period Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will increase by
Sunday evening with speeds 25-35 kts across the Columbia Basin.
Could even see some gusty mountain winds across the Cascades by
Sunday night. POPs and QPF amounts have been raised and winds
bumped for this period.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front slides through the region
Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and cooler
drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the precipitation
will be found in the Cascades and Panhandle mountains through
Monday morning and then gradually taper off. Drier conditions and
clearing will allow temperatures to cool Monday night. This will
set the stage for the next weather system. Under the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. A warm front will spread light precipitation across
eastern Washington by Tuesday. Based on low level temperatures,
there is good chance that the precipitation type will start off as
snow for most areas. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering snow showers or flurries will continue
overnight north of the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. Fog and
stratus that developed across this area is already beginning to
lift as drier northeasterly winds scour out this low level
moisture. There will continue to be a slight chance for some
patchy fog tonight at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE, but the trend is for
improving flight conditions overnight. The same cannot be said
for KMWH and KEAT which will see a stratus deck through the
overnight hours into Wednesday. Another shortwave disturbance
will push across the region on Wednesday. Light rain is expected
at KEAT and KMWH by the morning hours with light rain developing
at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE in the afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 /  50  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171024
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...The region will continue to be
under the influence of a split and ragged upper level trough
today and tonight. Again a couple of weak waves will move through
the forecast area and result in periods of light precipitation.
Cooler air banked up against the Cascades continues to make snow
level forecast a challenge. The 00z guidance came in with wet bulb
temperatures down around 30F when in fact the wet bulbs are in the
low to mid 30s. I most likely kept snow levels a little to low
across the areas for this morning, otherwise snow levels are
anywhere from 2500 to around 4000 feet across the area. So any
precipitation will be valley rain...possibly mixed with a little
snow for the Methow and up near Ardnevoir and mountain snow.
Precipitation amounts will remain light with a few hundredths in
the basin and lower valleys and possibly up to a tenth in the
mountains. Snow accumulations even for the mountains will only be
an inch or two.

Precipitation chances will then be on the decrease from the west
for the remainder of the night and Thursday as a short lived ridge
of high pressure builds into the region. Some pops were kept in
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, but again
accumulations should remain light with light snow above 3500 feet
for the Panhandle. Fog and stratus will likely develop through
the night and Thursday morning with a saturated boundary layer and
light south-southwest winds.

The next system will move towards the region Thursday night and
increase Pacific moisture. Snow levels for the valleys near the
Cascades will again be problematic. I don`t see any freezing rain
at this time but precipitation probably as a snow or snow/rain mix
for those valleys and snow above 3000-3500 feet. Some of the
higher locations in the Cascades could see 3-5 inches of fresh
snow by early Friday morning. Tobin

Friday and Friday night...The next in a series of Pacific weather
systems pushes across the Inland Northwest on Friday with a warm
front followed closely by an occluded front Friday evening. This
one looks to be a little stronger and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with light snow in the morning,
turning to valley rain and mountain snow by afternoon. There looks
to be the potential for up to an inch in the northern valleys,
while the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. Drying occurs
behind the front Friday night with a brief break in the
precipitation and light winds.

Saturday through Sunday night...This still looks to be a wettest
period as an atmospheric river takes aim on the Pacific NW. The
GFS and ECMWF show agreement of moderate isentropic lift spreading
across the region Saturday morning with a stream of plentiful
moisture for most of the weekend. Again precipitation type will be
tricky, initially with valley snow possible in the valley northern
valleys especially in the Cascade valleys. Warming increases
Saturday night into Sunday, making it a mainly rain/high mountain
snow event by Sunday afternoon. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the
Canadian border on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C poke into the
Columbia Basin. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with
widespread 40s and a few 50s possible. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is possible with juicy QPF amounts of 0.25" to 0.40" during a 24
hour period Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will increase by
Sunday evening with speeds 25-35 kts across the Columbia Basin.
Could even see some gusty mountain winds across the Cascades by
Sunday night. POPs and QPF amounts have been raised and winds
bumped for this period.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front slides through the region
Monday allowing the atmospheric river to sag southward and cooler
drier air to filter in from the north. The bulk of the precipitation
will be found in the Cascades and Panhandle mountains through
Monday morning and then gradually taper off. Drier conditions and
clearing will allow temperatures to cool Monday night. This will
set the stage for the next weather system. Under the northwest
flow aloft, a disturbance is expected to drop down from the Gulf
of Alaska. A warm front will spread light precipitation across
eastern Washington by Tuesday. Based on low level temperatures,
there is good chance that the precipitation type will start off as
snow for most areas. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering snow showers or flurries will continue
overnight north of the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. Fog and
stratus that developed across this area is already beginning to
lift as drier northeasterly winds scour out this low level
moisture. There will continue to be a slight chance for some
patchy fog tonight at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE, but the trend is for
improving flight conditions overnight. The same cannot be said
for KMWH and KEAT which will see a stratus deck through the
overnight hours into Wednesday. Another shortwave disturbance
will push across the region on Wednesday. Light rain is expected
at KEAT and KMWH by the morning hours with light rain developing
at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE in the afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  32  37  32  39  31 /  20  40  30  20  80  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  33  38  33  39  32 /  10  50  60  20  80  30
Pullman        43  33  43  34  42  29 /  10  50  40  10  70  20
Lewiston       43  35  45  36  44  31 /  10  40  30  10  60  20
Colville       35  32  37  33  38  32 /  20  50  30  50  80  20
Sandpoint      37  32  37  31  36  32 /  20  60  60  30  80  30
Kellogg        37  32  38  31  36  31 /  10  70  70  20  80  40
Moses Lake     39  29  39  32  42  28 /  20  20  10  60  60  10
Wenatchee      38  31  37  32  40  30 /  50  30  10  70  50  10
Omak           34  27  34  30  37  27 /  40  40  10  70  80  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 170551
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening forecast update to increase precip chances, decrease snow
levels and increase overnight low temperatures. Increased moist
isentropic ascent out ahead of a weak upper level feature has
resulted in widespread light snowfall along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor. Snowflakes will be very fine and contain
have a small moisture content; as a result, I do not anticipated
much if any accumulations from the snow. Best chances for
accumulations will be on grassy surfaces across the northern
mountains where less than a half of an inch will fall over most
locations. Snow will begin to push north of the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor late this evening.

With current dew point temperatures in the low to mid 30s across
the basin early this evening, I increase low temperatures a bit
warming them into the 30s for most locations. Fog will be possible
due how moist the boundary layer is. Easterly winds may result in
less fog in the Panhandle and portions of extreme easter WA with
better chances for a foggy morning expected in the western basin,
Cascade valleys and northern mtn valleys. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering snow showers or flurries will continue
overnight north of the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. Fog and
stratus that developed across this area is already beginning to
lift as drier northeasterly winds scour out this low level
moisture. There will continue to be a slight chance for some
patchy fog tonight at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE, but the trend is for
improving flight conditions overnight. The same cannot be said
for KMWH and KEAT which will see a stratus deck through the
overnight hours into Wednesday. Another shortwave disturbance
will push across the region on Wednesday. Light rain is expected
at KEAT and KMWH by the morning hours with light rain developing
at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE in the afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  33  36  33  38 /  70  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  60  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        32  42  34  42  33  41 /  10  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       34  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       30  36  33  37  33  37 /  70  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      29  36  33  37  30  36 /  50  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        31  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     32  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      34  37  30  37  33  40 /  50  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           29  34  28  34  32  37 /  70  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170551
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening forecast update to increase precip chances, decrease snow
levels and increase overnight low temperatures. Increased moist
isentropic ascent out ahead of a weak upper level feature has
resulted in widespread light snowfall along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor. Snowflakes will be very fine and contain
have a small moisture content; as a result, I do not anticipated
much if any accumulations from the snow. Best chances for
accumulations will be on grassy surfaces across the northern
mountains where less than a half of an inch will fall over most
locations. Snow will begin to push north of the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor late this evening.

With current dew point temperatures in the low to mid 30s across
the basin early this evening, I increase low temperatures a bit
warming them into the 30s for most locations. Fog will be possible
due how moist the boundary layer is. Easterly winds may result in
less fog in the Panhandle and portions of extreme easter WA with
better chances for a foggy morning expected in the western basin,
Cascade valleys and northern mtn valleys. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering snow showers or flurries will continue
overnight north of the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. Fog and
stratus that developed across this area is already beginning to
lift as drier northeasterly winds scour out this low level
moisture. There will continue to be a slight chance for some
patchy fog tonight at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE, but the trend is for
improving flight conditions overnight. The same cannot be said
for KMWH and KEAT which will see a stratus deck through the
overnight hours into Wednesday. Another shortwave disturbance
will push across the region on Wednesday. Light rain is expected
at KEAT and KMWH by the morning hours with light rain developing
at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE in the afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  33  36  33  38 /  70  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  60  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        32  42  34  42  33  41 /  10  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       34  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       30  36  33  37  33  37 /  70  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      29  36  33  37  30  36 /  50  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        31  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     32  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      34  37  30  37  33  40 /  50  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           29  34  28  34  32  37 /  70  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 170133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
533 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening forecast update to increase precip chances, decrease snow
levels and increase overnight low temperatures. Increased moist
isentropic ascent out ahead of a weak upper level feature has
resulted in widespread light snowfall along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor. Snowflakes will be very fine and contain
have a small moisture content; as a result, I do not anticipated
much if any accumulations from the snow. Best chances for
accumulations will be on grassy surfaces across the northern
mountains where less than a half of an inch will fall over most
locations. Snow will begin to push north of the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor late this evening.

With current dew point temperatures in the low to mid 30s across
the basin early this evening, I increase low temperatures a bit
warming them into the 30s for most locations. Fog will be possible
due how moist the boundary layer is. Easterly winds may result in
less fog in the Panhandle and portions of extreme easter WA with
better chances for a foggy morning expected in the western basin,
Cascade valleys and northern mtn valleys. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak weather system this evening will produce light
snow across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor and light rain at
KEAT and KMWH. Cigs at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE will lower a bit and bounce
between MVFR/VFR. Vis will vary between 2 SM and 6 SM due to the
snow. Easterly flow in the boundary layer will continue to push
moisture across the western basin into the Cascade Mtns where the
lowest cigs between IFR and LIFR will be possible. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  33  36  33  38 /  70  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  60  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        32  42  34  42  33  41 /  10  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       34  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       30  36  33  37  33  37 /  70  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      29  36  33  37  30  36 /  50  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        31  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     32  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      34  37  30  37  33  40 /  50  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           29  34  28  34  32  37 /  70  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
533 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening forecast update to increase precip chances, decrease snow
levels and increase overnight low temperatures. Increased moist
isentropic ascent out ahead of a weak upper level feature has
resulted in widespread light snowfall along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor. Snowflakes will be very fine and contain
have a small moisture content; as a result, I do not anticipated
much if any accumulations from the snow. Best chances for
accumulations will be on grassy surfaces across the northern
mountains where less than a half of an inch will fall over most
locations. Snow will begin to push north of the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor late this evening.

With current dew point temperatures in the low to mid 30s across
the basin early this evening, I increase low temperatures a bit
warming them into the 30s for most locations. Fog will be possible
due how moist the boundary layer is. Easterly winds may result in
less fog in the Panhandle and portions of extreme easter WA with
better chances for a foggy morning expected in the western basin,
Cascade valleys and northern mtn valleys. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak weather system this evening will produce light
snow across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor and light rain at
KEAT and KMWH. Cigs at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE will lower a bit and bounce
between MVFR/VFR. Vis will vary between 2 SM and 6 SM due to the
snow. Easterly flow in the boundary layer will continue to push
moisture across the western basin into the Cascade Mtns where the
lowest cigs between IFR and LIFR will be possible. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  33  36  33  38 /  70  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  60  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        32  42  34  42  33  41 /  10  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       34  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       30  36  33  37  33  37 /  70  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      29  36  33  37  30  36 /  50  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        31  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     32  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      34  37  30  37  33  40 /  50  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           29  34  28  34  32  37 /  70  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 170001
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
401 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight into Tomorrow...Forecast remains fairly cluttered with
pops of widely varying value yet the precipitation amounts remain
on the low side going into tomorrow. They remain assigned to the
extreme north and within the vicinity of the East Slopes of the
North Cascades and Northern Mountains with a weak exiting weather
disturbance. A second disturbance noted with a cluster of moderate
to high pops passes within close proximity to the West Plains of
Spokane, Eastern Lincoln, Northeast Adams, and Northwest Whitman
Counties and by 3Z its should be up in the northern mountains and
weakened considerably. Amounts of rain or snow expected to fall
out of this small circulation are on the light side on the order
of .05 liquid or less. After these features leave the area fog and
low clouds should fill back in just in time to be overrun in a
somewhat similar fashion with yet another weak upper level
disturbance passage tomorrow. Given this fairly stagnant pattern
is lacking any substantial amount of either cold dry air or snow-
cover the forecast temperatures remain on the warm side of what
would be considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Wednesday night through Saturday...A gradually more active pattern
will evolve for the middle to end of the week.

A weak short wave trough will track across Eastern Washington and
North Idaho Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This combined
with upslope flow into Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will yield light snow accumulations mainly above 2500
feet per forecast soundings.

The next system enters Thursday night into Friday in the form of a
weak cold front. Cloud cover looks to thicken early Thursday
evening which will limit radiational cooling potential. There are
some minor differences regarding the lower level thermal profiles
from the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF...with the NAM and ECMWF the warmest.
Given a continued modification of the low level air mass through
Thursday with weak systems passing through...and lack of
radiational cooling potential Thu night...forecast leans towards
the warmer high resolution NAM/ECMWF models. However even if the
cooler GFS verifies the best potential for accumulations would be
north of Interstate 90...with Spokane/Coeur D`Alene likely seeing
a non-accumulating wet snow. Models suggest the potential for
light snow accumulations in the Cascades, Okanogan Highlands,
Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee area above 1000-1500 feet...northern
valleys above 2000-2500 feet...and in the mountains.

After a brief break Friday night...a much wetter system approaches
for the weekend. GFS and ECMWF show precip developing over
Central Washington Saturday afternoon as a warm front approaches.
Thermal profiles suggest mainly snow north and west of Moses
Lake...and mainly rain from Interstate 90 south Saturday
afternoon. JW

...A VERY WET WARM AND WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...

Saturday night through Monday...Model guidance is still remaining
quite consistent on bringing a strong storm into the region
during this period. This storm is currently just heading east of
Japan and looks fairly impressive on water vapor imagery. By the
time it nears the western US...it flattens our currently elongated
trough pattern and brings in very energetic zonal or westerly
flow. The upper level jet stream associated with this zonal flow
is still forecast to near 150 kts which will help advect ample
moisture into the region via a large atmospheric river. Model
guidance also remains very consistent on showing the leading edge
of the river on the coast by late Saturday afternoon and bringing
it across the Cascades overnight. This means we will see
widespread precipitation beginning sometime Saturday night and
continuing through most of Sunday. Given that the precipitation
will be largely derived from swift westerly flow in the 850-700 mb
layer we should see a rapid ending of the precipitation in the lee
of the Cascades sometime on Sunday as the strong warm air
advection in that layer turns to neutral or weak cold air
advection. The main story then will turn to wind and warm
temperatures. Before that occurs though...we expect all locations
to see some precipitation...much of which will be heavy along the
Cascade crest and likely over the Idaho Panhandle. 24 hr
precipitation amounts between Saturday night and Sunday night will
likely range from 1-2.5 inches along much of the crest to
0.75-1.50 inches over the Panhandle. Meanwhile amounts will be
substantially lower over the areas in between given the swift
westerly flow. Despite these lofty precipitation amounts...most
will fall as rain as snow levels will initially begin near the
valleys floors in the Cascades rising to nearly 4-6k feet by
Sunday along the Canadian border and much higher near the Oregon
border. So this is not expected to be a good snow event. During
the rising snow level period...we could also see a brief period of
freezing rain near the Cascades, especially south of Lake Chelan.
The threat of precipitation will gradually wind down across the
region on Monday as the atmospheric river begins to sag south of
the forecast area.

So as the precipitation threat eases over most of Washington between
the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains we anticipate a very
warm and breezy period. The UW MM5 model is showing sustained
surface winds of 25-30 mph so we`d expect the possibility of gusts
from 40-50 mph if the models hold to this notion. Meanwhile
temperatures will surge to levels much warmer than normal for this
time of year. Widespread temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s can be
expected so any snow which falls through the end of this week
would certainly melt. This weather pattern will somewhat similar
to what t we encountered just about a week ago on the tenth and
eleventh, just perhaps not quite as warm. Winds will also be a
little more widespread.

Monday night and Tuesday...The atmospheric river is expected to be
well south of the forecast however there will be enough moisture
left behind to keep some orographic precipitation left in the
forecast. Again most will occur near the Cascades and perhaps the
southern half of the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will begin to
cool down somewhat as the upper level jet sags atop the region
allowing slightly cooler air to move into the region. By this
point snow levels will be sufficiently low to bring snow to
elevations between 3-4k feet. Amounts should not be terribly heavy
however. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak weather system this evening will produce light
snow across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor and light rain at
KEAT and KMWH. Cigs at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE will lower a bit and bounce
between MVFR/VFR. Vis will vary between 2 SM and 6 SM due to the
snow. Easterly flow in the boundary layer will continue to push
moisture across the western basin into the Cascade Mtns where the
lowest cigs between IFR and LIFR will be possible. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  38  33  36  33  38 /  50  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  30  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        29  42  34  42  33  41 /  30  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       32  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       28  36  33  37  33  37 /  40  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      28  36  33  37  30  36 /  20  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        30  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     28  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      31  37  30  37  33  40 /  60  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           26  34  28  34  32  37 /  60  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170001
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
401 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight into Tomorrow...Forecast remains fairly cluttered with
pops of widely varying value yet the precipitation amounts remain
on the low side going into tomorrow. They remain assigned to the
extreme north and within the vicinity of the East Slopes of the
North Cascades and Northern Mountains with a weak exiting weather
disturbance. A second disturbance noted with a cluster of moderate
to high pops passes within close proximity to the West Plains of
Spokane, Eastern Lincoln, Northeast Adams, and Northwest Whitman
Counties and by 3Z its should be up in the northern mountains and
weakened considerably. Amounts of rain or snow expected to fall
out of this small circulation are on the light side on the order
of .05 liquid or less. After these features leave the area fog and
low clouds should fill back in just in time to be overrun in a
somewhat similar fashion with yet another weak upper level
disturbance passage tomorrow. Given this fairly stagnant pattern
is lacking any substantial amount of either cold dry air or snow-
cover the forecast temperatures remain on the warm side of what
would be considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Wednesday night through Saturday...A gradually more active pattern
will evolve for the middle to end of the week.

A weak short wave trough will track across Eastern Washington and
North Idaho Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This combined
with upslope flow into Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will yield light snow accumulations mainly above 2500
feet per forecast soundings.

The next system enters Thursday night into Friday in the form of a
weak cold front. Cloud cover looks to thicken early Thursday
evening which will limit radiational cooling potential. There are
some minor differences regarding the lower level thermal profiles
from the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF...with the NAM and ECMWF the warmest.
Given a continued modification of the low level air mass through
Thursday with weak systems passing through...and lack of
radiational cooling potential Thu night...forecast leans towards
the warmer high resolution NAM/ECMWF models. However even if the
cooler GFS verifies the best potential for accumulations would be
north of Interstate 90...with Spokane/Coeur D`Alene likely seeing
a non-accumulating wet snow. Models suggest the potential for
light snow accumulations in the Cascades, Okanogan Highlands,
Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee area above 1000-1500 feet...northern
valleys above 2000-2500 feet...and in the mountains.

After a brief break Friday night...a much wetter system approaches
for the weekend. GFS and ECMWF show precip developing over
Central Washington Saturday afternoon as a warm front approaches.
Thermal profiles suggest mainly snow north and west of Moses
Lake...and mainly rain from Interstate 90 south Saturday
afternoon. JW

...A VERY WET WARM AND WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...

Saturday night through Monday...Model guidance is still remaining
quite consistent on bringing a strong storm into the region
during this period. This storm is currently just heading east of
Japan and looks fairly impressive on water vapor imagery. By the
time it nears the western US...it flattens our currently elongated
trough pattern and brings in very energetic zonal or westerly
flow. The upper level jet stream associated with this zonal flow
is still forecast to near 150 kts which will help advect ample
moisture into the region via a large atmospheric river. Model
guidance also remains very consistent on showing the leading edge
of the river on the coast by late Saturday afternoon and bringing
it across the Cascades overnight. This means we will see
widespread precipitation beginning sometime Saturday night and
continuing through most of Sunday. Given that the precipitation
will be largely derived from swift westerly flow in the 850-700 mb
layer we should see a rapid ending of the precipitation in the lee
of the Cascades sometime on Sunday as the strong warm air
advection in that layer turns to neutral or weak cold air
advection. The main story then will turn to wind and warm
temperatures. Before that occurs though...we expect all locations
to see some precipitation...much of which will be heavy along the
Cascade crest and likely over the Idaho Panhandle. 24 hr
precipitation amounts between Saturday night and Sunday night will
likely range from 1-2.5 inches along much of the crest to
0.75-1.50 inches over the Panhandle. Meanwhile amounts will be
substantially lower over the areas in between given the swift
westerly flow. Despite these lofty precipitation amounts...most
will fall as rain as snow levels will initially begin near the
valleys floors in the Cascades rising to nearly 4-6k feet by
Sunday along the Canadian border and much higher near the Oregon
border. So this is not expected to be a good snow event. During
the rising snow level period...we could also see a brief period of
freezing rain near the Cascades, especially south of Lake Chelan.
The threat of precipitation will gradually wind down across the
region on Monday as the atmospheric river begins to sag south of
the forecast area.

So as the precipitation threat eases over most of Washington between
the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains we anticipate a very
warm and breezy period. The UW MM5 model is showing sustained
surface winds of 25-30 mph so we`d expect the possibility of gusts
from 40-50 mph if the models hold to this notion. Meanwhile
temperatures will surge to levels much warmer than normal for this
time of year. Widespread temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s can be
expected so any snow which falls through the end of this week
would certainly melt. This weather pattern will somewhat similar
to what t we encountered just about a week ago on the tenth and
eleventh, just perhaps not quite as warm. Winds will also be a
little more widespread.

Monday night and Tuesday...The atmospheric river is expected to be
well south of the forecast however there will be enough moisture
left behind to keep some orographic precipitation left in the
forecast. Again most will occur near the Cascades and perhaps the
southern half of the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will begin to
cool down somewhat as the upper level jet sags atop the region
allowing slightly cooler air to move into the region. By this
point snow levels will be sufficiently low to bring snow to
elevations between 3-4k feet. Amounts should not be terribly heavy
however. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak weather system this evening will produce light
snow across the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor and light rain at
KEAT and KMWH. Cigs at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE will lower a bit and bounce
between MVFR/VFR. Vis will vary between 2 SM and 6 SM due to the
snow. Easterly flow in the boundary layer will continue to push
moisture across the western basin into the Cascade Mtns where the
lowest cigs between IFR and LIFR will be possible. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  38  33  36  33  38 /  50  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  30  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        29  42  34  42  33  41 /  30  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       32  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       28  36  33  37  33  37 /  40  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      28  36  33  37  30  36 /  20  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        30  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     28  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      31  37  30  37  33  40 /  60  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           26  34  28  34  32  37 /  60  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 162243
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight into Tomorrow...Forecast remains fairly cluttered with
pops of widely varying value yet the precipitation amounts remain
on the low side going into tomorrow. They remain assigned to the
extreme north and within the vicinity of the East Slopes of the
North Cascades and Northern Mountains with a weak exiting weather
disturbance. A second disturbance noted with a cluster of moderate
to high pops passes within close proximity to the West Plains of
Spokane, Eastern Lincoln, Northeast Adams, and Northwest Whitman
Counties and by 3Z its should be up in the northern mountains and
weakened considerably. Amounts of rain or snow expected to fall
out of this small circulation are on the light side on the order
of .05 liquid or less. After these features leave the area fog and
low clouds should fill back in just in time to be overrun in a
somewhat similar fashion with yet another weak upper level
disturbance passage tomorrow. Given this fairly stagnant pattern
is lacking any substantial amount of either cold dry air or snow-
cover the forecast temperatures remain on the warm side of what
would be considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Wednesday night through Saturday...A gradually more active pattern
will evolve for the middle to end of the week.

A weak short wave trough will track across Eastern Washington and
North Idaho Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This combined
with upslope flow into Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will yield light snow accumulations mainly above 2500
feet per forecast soundings.

The next system enters Thursday night into Friday in the form of a
weak cold front. Cloud cover looks to thicken early Thursday
evening which will limit radiational cooling potential. There are
some minor differences regarding the lower level thermal profiles
from the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF...with the NAM and ECMWF the warmest.
Given a continued modification of the low level air mass through
Thursday with weak systems passing through...and lack of
radiational cooling potential Thu night...forecast leans towards
the warmer high resolution NAM/ECMWF models. However even if the
cooler GFS verifies the best potential for accumulations would be
north of Interstate 90...with Spokane/Coeur D`Alene likely seeing
a non-accumulating wet snow. Models suggest the potential for
light snow accumulations in the Cascades, Okanogan Highlands,
Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee area above 1000-1500 feet...northern
valleys above 2000-2500 feet...and in the mountains.

After a brief break Friday night...a much wetter system approaches
for the weekend. GFS and ECMWF show precip developing over
Central Washington Saturday afternoon as a warm front approaches.
Thermal profiles suggest mainly snow north and west of Moses
Lake...and mainly rain from Interstate 90 south Saturday
afternoon. JW

...A VERY WET WARM AND WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...

Saturday night through Monday...Model guidance is still remaining
quite consistent on bringing a strong storm into the region
during this period. This storm is currently just heading east of
Japan and looks fairly impressive on water vapor imagery. By the
time it nears the western US...it flattens our currently elongated
trough pattern and brings in very energetic zonal or westerly
flow. The upper level jet stream associated with this zonal flow
is still forecast to near 150 kts which will help advect ample
moisture into the region via a large atmospheric river. Model
guidance also remains very consistent on showing the leading edge
of the river on the coast by late Saturday afternoon and bringing
it across the Cascades overnight. This means we will see
widespread precipitation beginning sometime Saturday night and
continuing through most of Sunday. Given that the precipitation
will be largely derived from swift westerly flow in the 850-700 mb
layer we should see a rapid ending of the precipitation in the lee
of the Cascades sometime on Sunday as the strong warm air
advection in that layer turns to neutral or weak cold air
advection. The main story then will turn to wind and warm
temperatures. Before that occurs though...we expect all locations
to see some precipitation...much of which will be heavy along the
Cascade crest and likely over the Idaho Panhandle. 24 hr
precipitation amounts between Saturday night and Sunday night will
likely range from 1-2.5 inches along much of the crest to
0.75-1.50 inches over the Panhandle. Meanwhile amounts will be
substantially lower over the areas in between given the swift
westerly flow. Despite these lofty precipitation amounts...most
will fall as rain as snow levels will initially begin near the
valleys floors in the Cascades rising to nearly 4-6k feet by
Sunday along the Canadian border and much higher near the Oregon
border. So this is not expected to be a good snow event. During
the rising snow level period...we could also see a brief period of
freezing rain near the Cascades, especially south of Lake Chelan.
The threat of precipitation will gradually wind down across the
region on Monday as the atmospheric river begins to sag south of
the forecast area.

So as the precipitation threat eases over most of Washington between
the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains we anticipate a very
warm and breezy period. The UW MM5 model is showing sustained
surface winds of 25-30 mph so we`d expect the possibility of gusts
from 40-50 mph if the models hold to this notion. Meanwhile
temperatures will surge to levels much warmer than normal for this
time of year. Widespread temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s can be
expected so any snow which falls through the end of this week
would certainly melt. This weather pattern will somewhat similar
to what t we encountered just about a week ago on the tenth and
eleventh, just perhaps not quite as warm. Winds will also be a
little more widespread.

Monday night and Tuesday...The atmospheric river is expected to be
well south of the forecast however there will be enough moisture
left behind to keep some orographic precipitation left in the
forecast. Again most will occur near the Cascades and perhaps the
southern half of the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will begin to
cool down somewhat as the upper level jet sags atop the region
allowing slightly cooler air to move into the region. By this
point snow levels will be sufficiently low to bring snow to
elevations between 3-4k feet. Amounts should not be terribly heavy
however. fx


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  38  33  36  33  38 /  50  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  30  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        29  42  34  42  33  41 /  30  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       32  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       28  36  33  37  33  37 /  40  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      28  36  33  37  30  36 /  20  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        30  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     28  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      31  37  30  37  33  40 /  60  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           26  34  28  34  32  37 /  60  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 162243
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern will develop through the week with
periods of light snow in the mountains...and rain or snow in the
valleys. Lower elevations from Interstate 90 south will see mainly
rain...while areas in the Cascades and near the Canadian border
will remain mainly snow. A much stronger weather system over the
weekend will usher in warmer temperatures with sharply rising snow
levels...as well as the potential for windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight into Tomorrow...Forecast remains fairly cluttered with
pops of widely varying value yet the precipitation amounts remain
on the low side going into tomorrow. They remain assigned to the
extreme north and within the vicinity of the East Slopes of the
North Cascades and Northern Mountains with a weak exiting weather
disturbance. A second disturbance noted with a cluster of moderate
to high pops passes within close proximity to the West Plains of
Spokane, Eastern Lincoln, Northeast Adams, and Northwest Whitman
Counties and by 3Z its should be up in the northern mountains and
weakened considerably. Amounts of rain or snow expected to fall
out of this small circulation are on the light side on the order
of .05 liquid or less. After these features leave the area fog and
low clouds should fill back in just in time to be overrun in a
somewhat similar fashion with yet another weak upper level
disturbance passage tomorrow. Given this fairly stagnant pattern
is lacking any substantial amount of either cold dry air or snow-
cover the forecast temperatures remain on the warm side of what
would be considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Wednesday night through Saturday...A gradually more active pattern
will evolve for the middle to end of the week.

A weak short wave trough will track across Eastern Washington and
North Idaho Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This combined
with upslope flow into Northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will yield light snow accumulations mainly above 2500
feet per forecast soundings.

The next system enters Thursday night into Friday in the form of a
weak cold front. Cloud cover looks to thicken early Thursday
evening which will limit radiational cooling potential. There are
some minor differences regarding the lower level thermal profiles
from the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF...with the NAM and ECMWF the warmest.
Given a continued modification of the low level air mass through
Thursday with weak systems passing through...and lack of
radiational cooling potential Thu night...forecast leans towards
the warmer high resolution NAM/ECMWF models. However even if the
cooler GFS verifies the best potential for accumulations would be
north of Interstate 90...with Spokane/Coeur D`Alene likely seeing
a non-accumulating wet snow. Models suggest the potential for
light snow accumulations in the Cascades, Okanogan Highlands,
Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee area above 1000-1500 feet...northern
valleys above 2000-2500 feet...and in the mountains.

After a brief break Friday night...a much wetter system approaches
for the weekend. GFS and ECMWF show precip developing over
Central Washington Saturday afternoon as a warm front approaches.
Thermal profiles suggest mainly snow north and west of Moses
Lake...and mainly rain from Interstate 90 south Saturday
afternoon. JW

...A VERY WET WARM AND WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...

Saturday night through Monday...Model guidance is still remaining
quite consistent on bringing a strong storm into the region
during this period. This storm is currently just heading east of
Japan and looks fairly impressive on water vapor imagery. By the
time it nears the western US...it flattens our currently elongated
trough pattern and brings in very energetic zonal or westerly
flow. The upper level jet stream associated with this zonal flow
is still forecast to near 150 kts which will help advect ample
moisture into the region via a large atmospheric river. Model
guidance also remains very consistent on showing the leading edge
of the river on the coast by late Saturday afternoon and bringing
it across the Cascades overnight. This means we will see
widespread precipitation beginning sometime Saturday night and
continuing through most of Sunday. Given that the precipitation
will be largely derived from swift westerly flow in the 850-700 mb
layer we should see a rapid ending of the precipitation in the lee
of the Cascades sometime on Sunday as the strong warm air
advection in that layer turns to neutral or weak cold air
advection. The main story then will turn to wind and warm
temperatures. Before that occurs though...we expect all locations
to see some precipitation...much of which will be heavy along the
Cascade crest and likely over the Idaho Panhandle. 24 hr
precipitation amounts between Saturday night and Sunday night will
likely range from 1-2.5 inches along much of the crest to
0.75-1.50 inches over the Panhandle. Meanwhile amounts will be
substantially lower over the areas in between given the swift
westerly flow. Despite these lofty precipitation amounts...most
will fall as rain as snow levels will initially begin near the
valleys floors in the Cascades rising to nearly 4-6k feet by
Sunday along the Canadian border and much higher near the Oregon
border. So this is not expected to be a good snow event. During
the rising snow level period...we could also see a brief period of
freezing rain near the Cascades, especially south of Lake Chelan.
The threat of precipitation will gradually wind down across the
region on Monday as the atmospheric river begins to sag south of
the forecast area.

So as the precipitation threat eases over most of Washington between
the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains we anticipate a very
warm and breezy period. The UW MM5 model is showing sustained
surface winds of 25-30 mph so we`d expect the possibility of gusts
from 40-50 mph if the models hold to this notion. Meanwhile
temperatures will surge to levels much warmer than normal for this
time of year. Widespread temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s can be
expected so any snow which falls through the end of this week
would certainly melt. This weather pattern will somewhat similar
to what t we encountered just about a week ago on the tenth and
eleventh, just perhaps not quite as warm. Winds will also be a
little more widespread.

Monday night and Tuesday...The atmospheric river is expected to be
well south of the forecast however there will be enough moisture
left behind to keep some orographic precipitation left in the
forecast. Again most will occur near the Cascades and perhaps the
southern half of the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will begin to
cool down somewhat as the upper level jet sags atop the region
allowing slightly cooler air to move into the region. By this
point snow levels will be sufficiently low to bring snow to
elevations between 3-4k feet. Amounts should not be terribly heavy
however. fx


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  38  33  36  33  38 /  50  30  40  30  20  70
Coeur d`Alene  30  40  33  37  31  38 /  30  30  50  50  20  70
Pullman        29  42  34  42  33  41 /  30  10  50  30  20  70
Lewiston       32  42  35  45  34  43 /  10  10  40  30  10  50
Colville       28  36  33  37  33  37 /  40  30  40  30  50  70
Sandpoint      28  36  33  37  30  36 /  20  30  60  60  20  80
Kellogg        30  38  32  38  29  37 /  20  10  70  60  20  70
Moses Lake     28  38  29  38  34  41 /  10  30  20  10  60  50
Wenatchee      31  37  30  37  33  40 /  60  30  30  10  60  50
Omak           26  34  28  34  32  37 /  60  40  40  10  70  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1132 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another update to increase the localized pops associated with the
mesoscale circulation near the tri-cities on radar right now.
Expectation is this circulation will drift northeast through
Southeast Washington but influence will be localized. By 00Z this
afternoon it should be within close proximity to the West Plains
of Spokane, Eastern Lincoln, Northeast Adams, and Nortwest Whitman
Counties and by 3Z its up in the northern mountains but by then it
is expected to weaken considerably and quickly. Amounts of rain or
snow expected to fall out of this small circulation are on the
light side on the order of .05 liquid or less. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  50  10  40  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  30  10  50  50  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  30  30  10  50  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /   0  10  10  40  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  40  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  60  60  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  70  60  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  20  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  60  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 161933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1132 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another update to increase the localized pops associated with the
mesoscale circulation near the tri-cities on radar right now.
Expectation is this circulation will drift northeast through
Southeast Washington but influence will be localized. By 00Z this
afternoon it should be within close proximity to the West Plains
of Spokane, Eastern Lincoln, Northeast Adams, and Nortwest Whitman
Counties and by 3Z its up in the northern mountains but by then it
is expected to weaken considerably and quickly. Amounts of rain or
snow expected to fall out of this small circulation are on the
light side on the order of .05 liquid or less. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  50  10  40  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  30  10  50  50  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  30  30  10  50  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /   0  10  10  40  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  40  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  60  60  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  70  60  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  20  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  60  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161807
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1007 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Second update of the morning to add slight chance pops for a
second weather disturbance to work its way up through the forecast
area today and early this evening. Current radar shows the small
counter clockwise rotating circulation producing rain near the
tri- cities area which is expected to de-intesify some through the
day but by later today into the early evening some re-intensification
of the circulation when it is in the vicinity of the Columba
Basin, Spokane, and Washington Palouse area. It quickly falls
apart in the evening per a number of HRRR model runs so the pops
and qpf assigned to it remain small at this point in time.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  20  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  20  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /   0  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  20  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  60  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161807
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1007 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Second update of the morning to add slight chance pops for a
second weather disturbance to work its way up through the forecast
area today and early this evening. Current radar shows the small
counter clockwise rotating circulation producing rain near the
tri- cities area which is expected to de-intesify some through the
day but by later today into the early evening some re-intensification
of the circulation when it is in the vicinity of the Columba
Basin, Spokane, and Washington Palouse area. It quickly falls
apart in the evening per a number of HRRR model runs so the pops
and qpf assigned to it remain small at this point in time.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  20  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  20  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /   0  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  20  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  60  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 161730
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
929 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updates to this mornings forecast to add mention of very light
freezing rain to the Spokane area and vicinity as the upper air
sounding hints that there is likely to be a crossover temperature
at the top of the inversion at roughly 880mb to near +3 Celsius
atop the colder freezing layer below it this morning. That along
with most ground temperatures running below freezing made it a
reasonable addition. Little to no accumulation of snow or freezing
rain is included with the addition and generally valid wording for
most locations east of a Ritzville to Republic line. Those to the
west are either to remain snow or have warmed up enough already to
just call it rain, but there could be a few small pockets or two
this morning of a wintry mix there as well but pops are larger
with expectation that up-slope process gives those locations a
greater likelihood of receiving measurable precipitation. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 161730
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
929 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updates to this mornings forecast to add mention of very light
freezing rain to the Spokane area and vicinity as the upper air
sounding hints that there is likely to be a crossover temperature
at the top of the inversion at roughly 880mb to near +3 Celsius
atop the colder freezing layer below it this morning. That along
with most ground temperatures running below freezing made it a
reasonable addition. Little to no accumulation of snow or freezing
rain is included with the addition and generally valid wording for
most locations east of a Ritzville to Republic line. Those to the
west are either to remain snow or have warmed up enough already to
just call it rain, but there could be a few small pockets or two
this morning of a wintry mix there as well but pops are larger
with expectation that up-slope process gives those locations a
greater likelihood of receiving measurable precipitation. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Weak upper level disturbance working its way through the
aviation area this morning. A second weak disturbance that is
smaller is followiong quickly behind and will pass today as well.
So for the most part the precipitation is expect to be rather
light and produce and/or enhance ongoing MVFR ceilings and
visibilites today...but locations nearest very localized higher
intensity precipitation could dip to VFR at times. Overnight the
expecation is these two disturbances will have cleared the area
and fog/low clouds will continue to be an issue. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161614
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
814 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updates to this mornings forecast to add mention of very light
freezing rain to the Spokane area and vicinity as the upper air
sounding hints that there is likely to be a crossover temperature
at the top of the inversion at roughly 880mb to near +3 Celsius
atop the colder freezing layer below it this morning. That along
with most ground temperatures running below freezing made it a
reasonable addition. Little to no accumulation of snow or freezing
rain is included with the addition and generally valid wording for
most locations east of a Ritzville to Republic line. Those to the
west are either to remain snow or have warmed up enough already to
just call it rain, but there could be a few small pockets or two
this morning of a wintry mix there as well but pops are larger
with expectation that up-slope process gives those locations a
greater likelihood of receiving measurable precipitation. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weak upper level weather system will move north along
the Cascades this morning. This will increase clouds and result
in -RASN mainly west of a line from about Kettle Falls to the
Tri- Cities. So the best chances for precipitation will be at
KEAT/KMWH. Enough moisture may make it far enough east to keep
some light showers for the eastern TAF sites...but the confidence
of measuring is rather low. Precipitation type is expected to
start out as a -RA/SN mix before becoming mostly -RA. Surface obs
indicate some potential for light -FZRA for the upper basin...near
the Columbia river through 15-16z, but accumulations will be
light. Expect cigs to be VFR/MVFR at KEAT/KMWH through the day
then deteriorate aft 06z as fog/stratus try to develop. Conditions
for the eastern TAF sites should remain VFR with the potential for
MVFR cigs with any heavier precipitation. Guidance shows some
stratus development for KGEG/KSFF through the night...However this
may be overdone as a light easterly gradient would typically push
any moisture in the basin up against the Cascades. /Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 161614
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
814 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updates to this mornings forecast to add mention of very light
freezing rain to the Spokane area and vicinity as the upper air
sounding hints that there is likely to be a crossover temperature
at the top of the inversion at roughly 880mb to near +3 Celsius
atop the colder freezing layer below it this morning. That along
with most ground temperatures running below freezing made it a
reasonable addition. Little to no accumulation of snow or freezing
rain is included with the addition and generally valid wording for
most locations east of a Ritzville to Republic line. Those to the
west are either to remain snow or have warmed up enough already to
just call it rain, but there could be a few small pockets or two
this morning of a wintry mix there as well but pops are larger
with expectation that up-slope process gives those locations a
greater likelihood of receiving measurable precipitation. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weak upper level weather system will move north along
the Cascades this morning. This will increase clouds and result
in -RASN mainly west of a line from about Kettle Falls to the
Tri- Cities. So the best chances for precipitation will be at
KEAT/KMWH. Enough moisture may make it far enough east to keep
some light showers for the eastern TAF sites...but the confidence
of measuring is rather low. Precipitation type is expected to
start out as a -RA/SN mix before becoming mostly -RA. Surface obs
indicate some potential for light -FZRA for the upper basin...near
the Columbia river through 15-16z, but accumulations will be
light. Expect cigs to be VFR/MVFR at KEAT/KMWH through the day
then deteriorate aft 06z as fog/stratus try to develop. Conditions
for the eastern TAF sites should remain VFR with the potential for
MVFR cigs with any heavier precipitation. Guidance shows some
stratus development for KGEG/KSFF through the night...However this
may be overdone as a light easterly gradient would typically push
any moisture in the basin up against the Cascades. /Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161203
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
403 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Through this portion of the forecast
period several weak frontal systems will try, but have
difficulty, moving through a strong ridge of high pressure in a
split flow pattern. The first weak wave is expected to move along
the east slopes of the Cascades this morning, then weaken further
as it tracks east across mainly the northern zones. As mentioned
this wave is fairly weak, but does have some moisture with it as
PWAT`s increasing to 150-170% of normal. While precipitation is
expected along the east slopes and the northern mountains any
amounts should be rather light, and on the order of a trace in the
Basin to around a tenth of an inch in the mountains.

With sunny skies temperatures were able to warm nicely Monday
afternoon and the temperatures were not able to radiate very
efficiently as the clouds began to move in soon after sunset. This
has kept temperatures across the lower elevation at or above
freezing so far. Some wet bulbing is expected across the lower
elevations of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee valley and
some of the mountain valleys for precipitation starting as light
snow before turning over to rain, with snow expected for the
mountains. It also looks like there may be some localized pockets
of freezing rain possible for the Waterville Plateau and the upper
Basin near the Columbia river. Some of the higher elevations in
the Cascades could see 1-2 inches of snow. Warm air advection will
be hampered by increased cloud cover and temperatures will be 2-4
degrees cooler today.

Some low end pops were kept in the forecast tonight and early
Wednesday for the northern mountains with up-sloping flow and
abundant low level moisture, but again accumulations should be
very light. Otherwise expect an increasing chance for fog and low
cloud development. By late Wednesday afternoon another very weak
front will begin to increase moisture for the Cascades. This wave
looks weaker than the one today and expect only light
accumulations and mainly near the crest. /Tobin

Wednesday night and Thursday...One weak system pushing through an
area of high pressure. This upper level trough with remnants of
Pacific moisture will dissipate as it moves east of the Cascades.
Under light winds and weak isentropic lift, the weak warm front
will lift north with warming with time. Expect light snow changing
to valley rain by Thursday with the main area across extreme
eastern Washington and north Idaho. The 850mb 0C line stays from
KMWH-LWS. It looks to be a slow mover with light precipitation
amounts. There looks to be a possible 1 inch in the northern
valleys while the northern mountains may experience 1-2 inches.
High pressure builds back in by late Thursday bringing a break in
the precipitation.

Thursday night through Friday night...Next system reaches the coast
as a warm front pushes east of Cascades late Thursday night. This
one looks to be a little stronger system and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with a possible wintry mix. The
850mb 0C line spans from KEAT-KDEW by 12z Friday, and continues to
push north. This would bring mainly rain to the Columbia Basin and
lower valleys, while light snow is possible to the north. There
looks to be a possible 1-2 inches in the northern valleys, while
the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. An occluded front
arrives Friday afternoon/eve and sweeps through the region with
light winds. Then drying occurs behind the front Friday night with
a brief break in the precipitation.

Saturday through Monday...This looks to be a wettest period. An
atmospheric river sets up and takes aim on the Pacific NW. Timing
of the onset is a little unclear for Saturday between the ECMWF
and GFS, with the GFS being the slower solution. But by 12z
Sunday, the models indicate a wet westerly flow spreading
plentiful moisture across the Inland NW which will continue into
early next week. There is a potential for moderate snow in the
east slopes of the northern Cascades and northern mountains at the
onset. Then the warming increases and looks to be a mainly
rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
increase by Sunday evening with speeds 20-30 kts across the
Columbia Basin. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian border
on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C are found to the south. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. Opted to raise POPs for this event and temperatures
especially for Saturday night and Sunday. There are some
indications that this hose of moisture will slide southward late
Monday, followed by a gradual cooling from the north. /rfox.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weak upper level weather system will move north along
the Cascades this morning. This will increase clouds and result
in -RASN mainly west of a line from about Kettle Falls to the
Tri- Cities. So the best chances for precipitation will be at
KEAT/KMWH. Enough moisture may make it far enough east to keep
some light showers for the eastern TAF sites...but the confidence
of measuring is rather low. Precipitation type is expected to
start out as a -RA/SN mix before becoming mostly -RA. Surface obs
indicate some potential for light -FZRA for the upper basin...near
the Columbia river through 15-16z, but accumulations will be
light. Expect cigs to be VFR/MVFR at KEAT/KMWH through the day
then deteriorate aft 06z as fog/stratus try to develop. Conditions
for the eastern TAF sites should remain VFR with the potential for
MVFR cigs with any heavier precipitation. Guidance shows some
stratus development for KGEG/KSFF through the night...However this
may be overdone as a light easterly gradient would typically push
any moisture in the basin up against the Cascades. /Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 161203
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
403 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Through this portion of the forecast
period several weak frontal systems will try, but have
difficulty, moving through a strong ridge of high pressure in a
split flow pattern. The first weak wave is expected to move along
the east slopes of the Cascades this morning, then weaken further
as it tracks east across mainly the northern zones. As mentioned
this wave is fairly weak, but does have some moisture with it as
PWAT`s increasing to 150-170% of normal. While precipitation is
expected along the east slopes and the northern mountains any
amounts should be rather light, and on the order of a trace in the
Basin to around a tenth of an inch in the mountains.

With sunny skies temperatures were able to warm nicely Monday
afternoon and the temperatures were not able to radiate very
efficiently as the clouds began to move in soon after sunset. This
has kept temperatures across the lower elevation at or above
freezing so far. Some wet bulbing is expected across the lower
elevations of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee valley and
some of the mountain valleys for precipitation starting as light
snow before turning over to rain, with snow expected for the
mountains. It also looks like there may be some localized pockets
of freezing rain possible for the Waterville Plateau and the upper
Basin near the Columbia river. Some of the higher elevations in
the Cascades could see 1-2 inches of snow. Warm air advection will
be hampered by increased cloud cover and temperatures will be 2-4
degrees cooler today.

Some low end pops were kept in the forecast tonight and early
Wednesday for the northern mountains with up-sloping flow and
abundant low level moisture, but again accumulations should be
very light. Otherwise expect an increasing chance for fog and low
cloud development. By late Wednesday afternoon another very weak
front will begin to increase moisture for the Cascades. This wave
looks weaker than the one today and expect only light
accumulations and mainly near the crest. /Tobin

Wednesday night and Thursday...One weak system pushing through an
area of high pressure. This upper level trough with remnants of
Pacific moisture will dissipate as it moves east of the Cascades.
Under light winds and weak isentropic lift, the weak warm front
will lift north with warming with time. Expect light snow changing
to valley rain by Thursday with the main area across extreme
eastern Washington and north Idaho. The 850mb 0C line stays from
KMWH-LWS. It looks to be a slow mover with light precipitation
amounts. There looks to be a possible 1 inch in the northern
valleys while the northern mountains may experience 1-2 inches.
High pressure builds back in by late Thursday bringing a break in
the precipitation.

Thursday night through Friday night...Next system reaches the coast
as a warm front pushes east of Cascades late Thursday night. This
one looks to be a little stronger system and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with a possible wintry mix. The
850mb 0C line spans from KEAT-KDEW by 12z Friday, and continues to
push north. This would bring mainly rain to the Columbia Basin and
lower valleys, while light snow is possible to the north. There
looks to be a possible 1-2 inches in the northern valleys, while
the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. An occluded front
arrives Friday afternoon/eve and sweeps through the region with
light winds. Then drying occurs behind the front Friday night with
a brief break in the precipitation.

Saturday through Monday...This looks to be a wettest period. An
atmospheric river sets up and takes aim on the Pacific NW. Timing
of the onset is a little unclear for Saturday between the ECMWF
and GFS, with the GFS being the slower solution. But by 12z
Sunday, the models indicate a wet westerly flow spreading
plentiful moisture across the Inland NW which will continue into
early next week. There is a potential for moderate snow in the
east slopes of the northern Cascades and northern mountains at the
onset. Then the warming increases and looks to be a mainly
rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
increase by Sunday evening with speeds 20-30 kts across the
Columbia Basin. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian border
on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C are found to the south. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. Opted to raise POPs for this event and temperatures
especially for Saturday night and Sunday. There are some
indications that this hose of moisture will slide southward late
Monday, followed by a gradual cooling from the north. /rfox.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weak upper level weather system will move north along
the Cascades this morning. This will increase clouds and result
in -RASN mainly west of a line from about Kettle Falls to the
Tri- Cities. So the best chances for precipitation will be at
KEAT/KMWH. Enough moisture may make it far enough east to keep
some light showers for the eastern TAF sites...but the confidence
of measuring is rather low. Precipitation type is expected to
start out as a -RA/SN mix before becoming mostly -RA. Surface obs
indicate some potential for light -FZRA for the upper basin...near
the Columbia river through 15-16z, but accumulations will be
light. Expect cigs to be VFR/MVFR at KEAT/KMWH through the day
then deteriorate aft 06z as fog/stratus try to develop. Conditions
for the eastern TAF sites should remain VFR with the potential for
MVFR cigs with any heavier precipitation. Guidance shows some
stratus development for KGEG/KSFF through the night...However this
may be overdone as a light easterly gradient would typically push
any moisture in the basin up against the Cascades. /Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
317 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Through this portion of the forecast
period several weak frontal systems will try, but have
difficulty, moving through a strong ridge of high pressure in a
split flow pattern. The first weak wave is expected to move along
the east slopes of the Cascades this morning, then weaken further
as it tracks east across mainly the northern zones. As mentioned
this wave is fairly weak, but does have some moisture with it as
PWAT`s increasing to 150-170% of normal. While precipitation is
expected along the east slopes and the northern mountains any
amounts should be rather light, and on the order of a trace in the
Basin to around a tenth of an inch in the mountains.

With sunny skies temperatures were able to warm nicely Monday
afternoon and the temperatures were not able to radiate very
efficiently as the clouds began to move in soon after sunset. This
has kept temperatures across the lower elevation at or above
freezing so far. Some wet bulbing is expected across the lower
elevations of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee valley and
some of the mountain valleys for precipitation starting as light
snow before turning over to rain, with snow expected for the
mountains. It also looks like there may be some localized pockets
of freezing rain possible for the Waterville Plateau and the upper
Basin near the Columbia river. Some of the higher elevations in
the Cascades could see 1-2 inches of snow. Warm air advection will
be hampered by increased cloud cover and temperatures will be 2-4
degrees cooler today.

Some low end pops were kept in the forecast tonight and early
Wednesday for the northern mountains with up-sloping flow and
abundant low level moisture, but again accumulations should be
very light. Otherwise expect an increasing chance for fog and low
cloud development. By late Wednesday afternoon another very weak
front will begin to increase moisture for the Cascades. This wave
looks weaker than the one today and expect only light
accumulations and mainly near the crest. /Tobin

Wednesday night and Thursday...One weak system pushing through an
area of high pressure. This upper level trough with remnants of
Pacific moisture will dissipate as it moves east of the Cascades.
Under light winds and weak isentropic lift, the weak warm front
will lift north with warming with time. Expect light snow changing
to valley rain by Thursday with the main area across extreme
eastern Washington and north Idaho. The 850mb 0C line stays from
KMWH-LWS. It looks to be a slow mover with light precipitation
amounts. There looks to be a possible 1 inch in the northern
valleys while the northern mountains may experience 1-2 inches.
High pressure builds back in by late Thursday bringing a break in
the precipitation.

Thursday night through Friday night...Next system reaches the coast
as a warm front pushes east of Cascades late Thursday night. This
one looks to be a little stronger system and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with a possible wintry mix. The
850mb 0C line spans from KEAT-KDEW by 12z Friday, and continues to
push north. This would bring mainly rain to the Columbia Basin and
lower valleys, while light snow is possible to the north. There
looks to be a possible 1-2 inches in the northern valleys, while
the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. An occluded front
arrives Friday afternoon/eve and sweeps through the region with
light winds. Then drying occurs behind the front Friday night with
a brief break in the precipitation.

Saturday through Monday...This looks to be a wettest period. An
atmospheric river sets up and takes aim on the Pacific NW. Timing
of the onset is a little unclear for Saturday between the ECMWF
and GFS, with the GFS being the slower solution. But by 12z
Sunday, the models indicate a wet westerly flow spreading
plentiful moisture across the Inland NW which will continue into
early next week. There is a potential for moderate snow in the
east slopes of the northern Cascades and northern mountains at the
onset. Then the warming increases and looks to be a mainly
rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
increase by Sunday evening with speeds 20-30 kts across the
Columbia Basin. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian border
on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C are found to the south. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. Opted to raise POPs for this event and temperatures
especially for Saturday night and Sunday. There are some
indications that this hose of moisture will slide southward late
Monday, followed by a gradual cooling from the north. /rfox.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper level disturbance will push into the region
overnight. Best chances for precip will be at KEAT and KMWH after
09Z. Precip type is expected to be predominately rain, but a
little bit of snow mixed in will be possible through the morning
hours. Expect cigs to deteriorate into MVFR category at these
locations as well. Lower levels of the atmosphere will have a
harder time moistening up at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS due
to a persistent drier easterly winds across these TAF locations.
Flurries will be possible at these locations with cigs expected to
lower down to between 2-5 kft agl depending on the elevation of
the TAF site. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161118
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
317 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
today to the areas near the Cascades and light rain or snow to the
western Columbia Basin. A more active weather pattern will
develop late in the week with generally mountain snow and valley
rain or minimally accumulating snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Through this portion of the forecast
period several weak frontal systems will try, but have
difficulty, moving through a strong ridge of high pressure in a
split flow pattern. The first weak wave is expected to move along
the east slopes of the Cascades this morning, then weaken further
as it tracks east across mainly the northern zones. As mentioned
this wave is fairly weak, but does have some moisture with it as
PWAT`s increasing to 150-170% of normal. While precipitation is
expected along the east slopes and the northern mountains any
amounts should be rather light, and on the order of a trace in the
Basin to around a tenth of an inch in the mountains.

With sunny skies temperatures were able to warm nicely Monday
afternoon and the temperatures were not able to radiate very
efficiently as the clouds began to move in soon after sunset. This
has kept temperatures across the lower elevation at or above
freezing so far. Some wet bulbing is expected across the lower
elevations of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee valley and
some of the mountain valleys for precipitation starting as light
snow before turning over to rain, with snow expected for the
mountains. It also looks like there may be some localized pockets
of freezing rain possible for the Waterville Plateau and the upper
Basin near the Columbia river. Some of the higher elevations in
the Cascades could see 1-2 inches of snow. Warm air advection will
be hampered by increased cloud cover and temperatures will be 2-4
degrees cooler today.

Some low end pops were kept in the forecast tonight and early
Wednesday for the northern mountains with up-sloping flow and
abundant low level moisture, but again accumulations should be
very light. Otherwise expect an increasing chance for fog and low
cloud development. By late Wednesday afternoon another very weak
front will begin to increase moisture for the Cascades. This wave
looks weaker than the one today and expect only light
accumulations and mainly near the crest. /Tobin

Wednesday night and Thursday...One weak system pushing through an
area of high pressure. This upper level trough with remnants of
Pacific moisture will dissipate as it moves east of the Cascades.
Under light winds and weak isentropic lift, the weak warm front
will lift north with warming with time. Expect light snow changing
to valley rain by Thursday with the main area across extreme
eastern Washington and north Idaho. The 850mb 0C line stays from
KMWH-LWS. It looks to be a slow mover with light precipitation
amounts. There looks to be a possible 1 inch in the northern
valleys while the northern mountains may experience 1-2 inches.
High pressure builds back in by late Thursday bringing a break in
the precipitation.

Thursday night through Friday night...Next system reaches the coast
as a warm front pushes east of Cascades late Thursday night. This
one looks to be a little stronger system and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with a possible wintry mix. The
850mb 0C line spans from KEAT-KDEW by 12z Friday, and continues to
push north. This would bring mainly rain to the Columbia Basin and
lower valleys, while light snow is possible to the north. There
looks to be a possible 1-2 inches in the northern valleys, while
the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. An occluded front
arrives Friday afternoon/eve and sweeps through the region with
light winds. Then drying occurs behind the front Friday night with
a brief break in the precipitation.

Saturday through Monday...This looks to be a wettest period. An
atmospheric river sets up and takes aim on the Pacific NW. Timing
of the onset is a little unclear for Saturday between the ECMWF
and GFS, with the GFS being the slower solution. But by 12z
Sunday, the models indicate a wet westerly flow spreading
plentiful moisture across the Inland NW which will continue into
early next week. There is a potential for moderate snow in the
east slopes of the northern Cascades and northern mountains at the
onset. Then the warming increases and looks to be a mainly
rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
increase by Sunday evening with speeds 20-30 kts across the
Columbia Basin. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canadian border
on Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C are found to the south. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. Opted to raise POPs for this event and temperatures
especially for Saturday night and Sunday. There are some
indications that this hose of moisture will slide southward late
Monday, followed by a gradual cooling from the north. /rfox.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper level disturbance will push into the region
overnight. Best chances for precip will be at KEAT and KMWH after
09Z. Precip type is expected to be predominately rain, but a
little bit of snow mixed in will be possible through the morning
hours. Expect cigs to deteriorate into MVFR category at these
locations as well. Lower levels of the atmosphere will have a
harder time moistening up at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS due
to a persistent drier easterly winds across these TAF locations.
Flurries will be possible at these locations with cigs expected to
lower down to between 2-5 kft agl depending on the elevation of
the TAF site. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 161115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
312 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday night and Thursday...One weak system pushing through an
area of high pressure. This upper level trough with remnants of
Pacific moisture will disipate as it moves east of the Cascades.
Under light winds and weak isentropic lift, the weak warm front
will lift north with warming with time. Expect light snow changing
to valley rain by Thursday with the main area across extreme
eastern Washington and north Idaho. The 850mb 0C line stays from
KMWH-LWS. It looks to be a slow mover with light precipitation
amounts. There looks to be a possible 1 inch in the northern
valleys while the northern mountains may experience 1-2 inches.
High pressure builds back in by late Thursday bringing a break in
the precipitation.

Thursday night through Friday night...Next system reaches the coast
as a warm front pushes east of Cascades late Thursday night. This
one looks to be a little stronger system and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with a possible wintry mix. The
850mb 0C line spans from KEAT-KDEW by 12z Friday, and continues to
push north. This would bring mainly rain to the Columbia Basin and
lower valleys, while light snow is possible to the north. There
looks to be a possible 1-2 inches in the northern valleys, while
the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. An occluded front
arrives Friday afternoon/eve and sweeps through the region with
light winds. Then drying occurs behind the front Friday night with
a brief break in the precipitation.

Saturday through Monday...This looks to be a wettest period. An
atmospheric river sets up and takes aim on the Pacific NW. Timing
of the onset is a little unclear for Saturday between the ECMWF
and GFS, with the GFS being the slower solution. But by 12z
Sunday, the models indicate a wet westerly flow spreading
plentiful moisture across the Inland NW which will continue into
early next week. There is a potential for moderate snow in the
east slopes of the northern Cascades and northern mountains at the
onset. Then the warming increases and looks to be a mainly
rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
increase by Sunday evening with speeds 20-30 kts across the
Columbia Basin. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canaidan border on
Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C are found to the south. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. Opted to raise POPs for this event and temperatures
especially for Saturday night and Sunday. There are some
indications that this hose of moisture will slide southward late
Monday, followed by a gradual cooling from the north. /rfox.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper level disturbance will push into the region
overnight. Best chances for precip will be at KEAT and KMWH after
09Z. Precip type is expected to be predominately rain, but a
little bit of snow mixed in will be possible through the morning
hours. Expect cigs to deteriorate into MVFR category at these
locations as well. Lower levels of the atmosphere will have a
harder time moistening up at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS due
to a persistent drier easterly winds across these TAF locations.
Flurries will be possible at these locations with cigs expected to
lower down to between 2-5 kft agl depending on the elevation of
the TAF site. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 161115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
312 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday night and Thursday...One weak system pushing through an
area of high pressure. This upper level trough with remnants of
Pacific moisture will disipate as it moves east of the Cascades.
Under light winds and weak isentropic lift, the weak warm front
will lift north with warming with time. Expect light snow changing
to valley rain by Thursday with the main area across extreme
eastern Washington and north Idaho. The 850mb 0C line stays from
KMWH-LWS. It looks to be a slow mover with light precipitation
amounts. There looks to be a possible 1 inch in the northern
valleys while the northern mountains may experience 1-2 inches.
High pressure builds back in by late Thursday bringing a break in
the precipitation.

Thursday night through Friday night...Next system reaches the coast
as a warm front pushes east of Cascades late Thursday night. This
one looks to be a little stronger system and a little warmer.
Precipitation type will be tricky with a possible wintry mix. The
850mb 0C line spans from KEAT-KDEW by 12z Friday, and continues to
push north. This would bring mainly rain to the Columbia Basin and
lower valleys, while light snow is possible to the north. There
looks to be a possible 1-2 inches in the northern valleys, while
the northern mountains could see 1-3 inches. An occluded front
arrives Friday afternoon/eve and sweeps through the region with
light winds. Then drying occurs behind the front Friday night with
a brief break in the precipitation.

Saturday through Monday...This looks to be a wettest period. An
atmospheric river sets up and takes aim on the Pacific NW. Timing
of the onset is a little unclear for Saturday between the ECMWF
and GFS, with the GFS being the slower solution. But by 12z
Sunday, the models indicate a wet westerly flow spreading
plentiful moisture across the Inland NW which will continue into
early next week. There is a potential for moderate snow in the
east slopes of the northern Cascades and northern mountains at the
onset. Then the warming increases and looks to be a mainly
rain/high mountain snow event by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
increase by Sunday evening with speeds 20-30 kts across the
Columbia Basin. The 850mb 0C line pushes to the Canaidan border on
Sunday while temps of +5C to +7C are found to the south. Sunday
appears to be the warmest day with widespread 40s and a few 50s
possible. Opted to raise POPs for this event and temperatures
especially for Saturday night and Sunday. There are some
indications that this hose of moisture will slide southward late
Monday, followed by a gradual cooling from the north. /rfox.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper level disturbance will push into the region
overnight. Best chances for precip will be at KEAT and KMWH after
09Z. Precip type is expected to be predominately rain, but a
little bit of snow mixed in will be possible through the morning
hours. Expect cigs to deteriorate into MVFR category at these
locations as well. Lower levels of the atmosphere will have a
harder time moistening up at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS due
to a persistent drier easterly winds across these TAF locations.
Flurries will be possible at these locations with cigs expected to
lower down to between 2-5 kft agl depending on the elevation of
the TAF site. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
Pullman        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
Lewiston       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
Colville       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Kellogg        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
Moses Lake     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
Wenatchee      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
Omak           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161025
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
225 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE AREAS NEAR THE CASCADES AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN OR
MINIMALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL TRY, BUT HAVE
DIFFICULTY, MOVING THROUGH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE FIRST WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING, THEN WEAKEN FURTHER
AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS MENTIONED
THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT DOES HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT AS
PWAT`S INCREASING TO 150-170% OF NORMAL. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, AND ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE IN THE
BASIN TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO WARM NICELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ABLE TO RADIATE VERY
EFFICIENTLY AS THE CLOUDS BEGAN TO MOVE IN SOON AFTER SUNSET. THIS
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING SO FAR. SOME WET BULBING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BASIN, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, WENATCHEE VALLEY AND
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING AS LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE TURNING OVER TO RAIN, WITH SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND THE UPPER
BASIN NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE CASCADES COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE HAMPERED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-4
DEGREES COOLER TODAY.

SOME LOW END POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH UP-SLOPING FLOW AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR FOG AND LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER VERY WEAK
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE FOR THE CASCADES. THIS WAVE
LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE ONE TODAY AND EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND MAINLY NEAR THE CREST. /TOBIN

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ONE WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH REMNANTS OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT, THE WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH WARMING WITH TIME. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW CHANGING
TO VALLEY RAIN BY THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THE 850MB 0C LINE STAYS FROM
KMWH-LWS. IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW MOVER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS WHILE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE 1-2 INCHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BY LATE THURSDAY BRINGING A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST OF CASCADES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
ONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER SYSTEM AND A LITTLE WARMER.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX. THE
850MB 0C LINE SPANS FROM KEAT-KDEW BY 12Z FRIDAY, AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
LOWER VALLEYS, WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, WHILE
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THEN DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE A WETTEST PERIOD. AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETS UP AND TAKES AIM ON THE PACIFIC NW. TIMING
OF THE ONSET IS A LITTLE UNCLEAR FOR SATURDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS, WITH THE GFS BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY, THE MODELS INDICATE A WET WESTERLY FLOW SPREADING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE INLAND NW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW IN THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET. THEN THE WARMING INCREASES AND LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY
RAIN/HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. THE 850MB 0C LINE PUSHES TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SUNDAY WHILE TEMPS OF +5C TO +7C ARE FOUND TO THE SOUTH. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 40S AND A FEW 50S
POSSIBLE. OPTED TO RAISE POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THIS HOSE OF MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL COOLING FROM THE NORTH. /RFOX.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT KEAT AND KMWH AFTER
09Z. PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN, BUT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT THESE
LOCATIONS AS WELL. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME MOISTENING UP AT KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW AND KLWS DUE
TO A PERSISTENT DRIER EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THESE TAF LOCATIONS.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER DOWN TO BETWEEN 2-5 KFT AGL DEPENDING ON THE ELEVATION OF
THE TAF SITE. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
COEUR D`ALENE  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
PULLMAN        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
LEWISTON       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
COLVILLE       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
SANDPOINT      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
KELLOGG        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
MOSES LAKE     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
WENATCHEE      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
OMAK           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
     NORTHERN CASCADES-MOSES LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-
     OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
     WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 161025
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
225 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE AREAS NEAR THE CASCADES AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN OR
MINIMALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL TRY, BUT HAVE
DIFFICULTY, MOVING THROUGH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE FIRST WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING, THEN WEAKEN FURTHER
AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS MENTIONED
THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT DOES HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT AS
PWAT`S INCREASING TO 150-170% OF NORMAL. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, AND ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE IN THE
BASIN TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO WARM NICELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ABLE TO RADIATE VERY
EFFICIENTLY AS THE CLOUDS BEGAN TO MOVE IN SOON AFTER SUNSET. THIS
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING SO FAR. SOME WET BULBING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BASIN, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, WENATCHEE VALLEY AND
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING AS LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE TURNING OVER TO RAIN, WITH SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND THE UPPER
BASIN NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE CASCADES COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE HAMPERED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-4
DEGREES COOLER TODAY.

SOME LOW END POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH UP-SLOPING FLOW AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR FOG AND LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER VERY WEAK
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE FOR THE CASCADES. THIS WAVE
LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE ONE TODAY AND EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND MAINLY NEAR THE CREST. /TOBIN

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ONE WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH REMNANTS OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT, THE WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH WITH WARMING WITH TIME. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW CHANGING
TO VALLEY RAIN BY THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THE 850MB 0C LINE STAYS FROM
KMWH-LWS. IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW MOVER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS WHILE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE 1-2 INCHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BY LATE THURSDAY BRINGING A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST OF CASCADES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
ONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER SYSTEM AND A LITTLE WARMER.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX. THE
850MB 0C LINE SPANS FROM KEAT-KDEW BY 12Z FRIDAY, AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
LOWER VALLEYS, WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, WHILE
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THEN DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE A WETTEST PERIOD. AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETS UP AND TAKES AIM ON THE PACIFIC NW. TIMING
OF THE ONSET IS A LITTLE UNCLEAR FOR SATURDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS, WITH THE GFS BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY, THE MODELS INDICATE A WET WESTERLY FLOW SPREADING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE INLAND NW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW IN THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET. THEN THE WARMING INCREASES AND LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY
RAIN/HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. THE 850MB 0C LINE PUSHES TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SUNDAY WHILE TEMPS OF +5C TO +7C ARE FOUND TO THE SOUTH. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 40S AND A FEW 50S
POSSIBLE. OPTED TO RAISE POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THIS HOSE OF MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL COOLING FROM THE NORTH. /RFOX.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT KEAT AND KMWH AFTER
09Z. PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN, BUT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT THESE
LOCATIONS AS WELL. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME MOISTENING UP AT KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW AND KLWS DUE
TO A PERSISTENT DRIER EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THESE TAF LOCATIONS.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER DOWN TO BETWEEN 2-5 KFT AGL DEPENDING ON THE ELEVATION OF
THE TAF SITE. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        36  29  38  32  37  31 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
COEUR D`ALENE  37  30  40  33  38  31 /  10  10  10  40  40  10
PULLMAN        40  29  42  32  41  32 /  10  10  10  30  30  10
LEWISTON       43  32  42  35  43  34 /  20  10  10  30  30  10
COLVILLE       34  28  36  31  37  31 /  40  30  20  30  30  20
SANDPOINT      35  28  36  30  36  31 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
KELLOGG        37  30  38  31  36  30 /  10  20  10  40  40  20
MOSES LAKE     37  28  38  28  38  30 /  60  10  20  20  10  30
WENATCHEE      36  31  37  30  36  31 /  70  10  30  30  10  30
OMAK           34  26  34  27  33  28 /  60  30  40  30  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
     NORTHERN CASCADES-MOSES LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-
     OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
     WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 160649
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast was updated this evening to warm low temperatures a
little bit mainly for the basin and in the Wenatchee Area.
Temperatures have not cooled as much as was anticipated due to
increasing high and mid level cloud cover. This is expected to
keep surface temperatures above freezing for much of the Moses
Lake Area and the southern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin.
The freezing rain threat looks slim due to these warmer surface
temperatures late this evening.

The weak upper level disturbance is beginning to push across
Oregon and light precip will begin to push into the region
overnight into Tuesday morning. Best chance for precip will still be
across the western half of the forecast area. The Wenatchee Area
and Moses Lake Area looks to start out as rain due to surface
temps a couple of degrees above freezing. These temperatures will
drop due to wet bulb cooling effects and some snow will be
possible during this process; however, it appears unlikely that
snow will accumulate at the lower elevations across these areas.
Best chances for accumulating snow will be along the East Slopes
of the Northern Cascades where up to 1-2 inches will be possible
through Tuesday. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper level disturbance will push into the region
overnight. Best chances for precip will be at KEAT and KMWH after
09Z. Precip type is expected to be predominately rain, but a
little bit of snow mixed in will be possible through the morning
hours. Expect cigs to deteriorate into MVFR category at these
locations as well. Lower levels of the atmosphere will have a
harder time moistening up at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS due
to a persistent drier easterly winds across these TAF locations.
Flurries will be possible at these locations with cigs expected to
lower down to between 2-5 kft agl depending on the elevation of
the TAF site. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  29  35  29  38  30 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  28  35  30  40  31 /   0   0  10  10  20  40
Pullman        42  32  40  29  42  31 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       42  34  41  32  42  33 /  10  10  20  10  10  30
Colville       38  26  33  27  36  29 /   0   0  40  30  20  30
Sandpoint      37  25  33  28  36  29 /   0   0  10  20  10  40
Kellogg        39  26  35  30  38  31 /   0   0  10  20  10  40
Moses Lake     41  32  36  27  38  26 /  30  30  60  10  30  20
Wenatchee      38  33  35  31  37  29 /  40  40  70  10  30  30
Omak           35  25  33  26  34  25 /  10  10  60  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 160649
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast was updated this evening to warm low temperatures a
little bit mainly for the basin and in the Wenatchee Area.
Temperatures have not cooled as much as was anticipated due to
increasing high and mid level cloud cover. This is expected to
keep surface temperatures above freezing for much of the Moses
Lake Area and the southern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin.
The freezing rain threat looks slim due to these warmer surface
temperatures late this evening.

The weak upper level disturbance is beginning to push across
Oregon and light precip will begin to push into the region
overnight into Tuesday morning. Best chance for precip will still be
across the western half of the forecast area. The Wenatchee Area
and Moses Lake Area looks to start out as rain due to surface
temps a couple of degrees above freezing. These temperatures will
drop due to wet bulb cooling effects and some snow will be
possible during this process; however, it appears unlikely that
snow will accumulate at the lower elevations across these areas.
Best chances for accumulating snow will be along the East Slopes
of the Northern Cascades where up to 1-2 inches will be possible
through Tuesday. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak upper level disturbance will push into the region
overnight. Best chances for precip will be at KEAT and KMWH after
09Z. Precip type is expected to be predominately rain, but a
little bit of snow mixed in will be possible through the morning
hours. Expect cigs to deteriorate into MVFR category at these
locations as well. Lower levels of the atmosphere will have a
harder time moistening up at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS due
to a persistent drier easterly winds across these TAF locations.
Flurries will be possible at these locations with cigs expected to
lower down to between 2-5 kft agl depending on the elevation of
the TAF site. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  29  35  29  38  30 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  28  35  30  40  31 /   0   0  10  10  20  40
Pullman        42  32  40  29  42  31 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       42  34  41  32  42  33 /  10  10  20  10  10  30
Colville       38  26  33  27  36  29 /   0   0  40  30  20  30
Sandpoint      37  25  33  28  36  29 /   0   0  10  20  10  40
Kellogg        39  26  35  30  38  31 /   0   0  10  20  10  40
Moses Lake     41  32  36  27  38  26 /  30  30  60  10  30  20
Wenatchee      38  33  35  31  37  29 /  40  40  70  10  30  30
Omak           35  25  33  26  34  25 /  10  10  60  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 160004
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
404 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...High pressure and cool northeast winds
combined with a general decrease in cloud cover this early evening
will allow for efficient cooling and allow most locations to fall
below freezing again tonight. An upper level disturbance with
limited moisture and energy overruns it in a south to north
fashion overnight and tomorrow. Pops have been increased
substantially in order to allow for snowfall amount wording of
generally little accumulation if any in most valley and lowland
locations. Even mountain locations are not expected to obtain much
snowfall from this passing system. Additionally a slight chance of
light freezing rain is mentioned roughly south of a line in the
vicinity of the lower East Slopes of the North Cascades over to
Wenatchee and the Moses lake/Ritzville area. Furthermore the
expectation is that any and all disturbances passing through the
area between now and Friday are not very strong so stagnant
conditions will continue, as such the air stagnation advisory has
been extended until Noon Friday. /Pelatti

Tuesday Night through Saturday Night: This period of the forecast
will be characterized by weak Pacific frontal systems trying to
move through a ridge of high pressure. The result is slow moving
weather systems with low amounts of precipitation. The first front
on Tuesday is very weak and essentially dies as it moves over our
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. As similar-looking disturbance
moves through the region on Thursday. A somewhat stronger system
arrives for Friday. This event has the highest confidence of
appreciable precipitation.

The toughest part of the forecast is precipitation type. The
Cascades and nearby Wenatchee-to-Omak region should see all snow,
while southeast areas (L-C valley, Pullman) will see all rain.
Points north of a line from Pullman to Omak are more problematic,
so the forecast wording will largely be a rain/snow mix. Much of
this will rely on timing (i.e. morning vs afternoon) as well as
elevation.

Snow Amounts:  For the Tuesday and Thursday systems, if anyone
gets an inch of snow they`ll be the lucky ones. Most will just see
a dusting at best. The Friday front should bring 2-4 inches to
the Cascade valleys, with 1-2 inches in the northern valleys. The
Spokane/Cd`A metro area is a very tough call. At this point the
precipitation looks to arrive in the afternoon which would mean
more rain than snow. But a 6-hour slower timing could change that
considerably. RJ

Sunday through Monday night...Odds are looking good that this will
be the wettest period of this forecast. The weak splitting system
earlier this week should not be the case by the time we head into
the latter half of the weekend. Strong zonal or westerly flow is
now supported by all models and the GFS ensemble mean. A west-
southwest upper level jet ranging from 120-150kts will head into
the Inland NW either late Saturday night or Sunday while
entertaining a well defined atmospheric river with origins west of
Hawaii. This spells a very good chance of a wet and warm
period...at least until the jet sags south of the region on Monday
night. Initially we could see snow levels on the valley floors
late Saturday night/early Sunday near the Canadian border and in
the lee of the Cascades, but given this is a very dynamic system,
the snow levels should have no trouble rising steadily. The
slowest location for the warming will be over the northern
Cascades...mainly north of Lake Chelan where appreciable snows
will be possible. There could also be some brief freezing rain in
the lee of the Cascades early Sunday. Precipitation totals could
range from 1-2 inches of liquid near the Cascade Crest and a small
part of the Idaho Panhandle...with significantly lighter amounts
over the Columbia Basin...Wenatchee Area... and Okanogan Valley.
Windy conditions look like a good possibility as well with
temperatures surging into the 40s if not lower 50s as the warmer
air moves in from the southwest. The cooler air will begin to move
into the area on Monday night with the threat of precipitation
gradually decreasing from the west-northwest. fx


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Northeast winds at the surface will keep low stratus
banked up against the east slopes of the WA Cascades and across
the lower Columbia Basin this evening into tonight. A weak upper
level low pressure system will push across the region tonight into
Tuesday. Cigs will lower through the overnight hours with light
precip possible at KEAT and KMWH between 08-12Z and at KGEG, KSFF
and KCOE around 15Z. Confidence is highest for KEAT with IFR/LIFR
conditions expected and confidence decreases further east near the
ID Panhandle. Precip type is expected to be snow at KEAT, KGEG,
KSFF and KCOE. Brief moderate snowfall will be possible at KEAT
through the morning hours on Tuesday and KMWH could see a mix of
snow with light freezing rain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        26  35  29  38  30  36 /   0  60  20  20  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  26  35  30  40  31  36 /   0  10  20  20  30  40
Pullman        28  40  29  42  31  40 /  10  20  10  20  30  30
Lewiston       31  41  32  42  33  42 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Colville       25  33  27  36  29  35 /   0  50  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      24  33  28  36  29  34 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Kellogg        25  35  30  38  31  35 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Moses Lake     27  36  27  38  26  36 /  30  60  10  30  20  10
Wenatchee      30  35  31  37  29  34 /  50  70  20  30  20  20
Omak           25  33  26  34  25  31 /  10  70  30  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 160004
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
404 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...High pressure and cool northeast winds
combined with a general decrease in cloud cover this early evening
will allow for efficient cooling and allow most locations to fall
below freezing again tonight. An upper level disturbance with
limited moisture and energy overruns it in a south to north
fashion overnight and tomorrow. Pops have been increased
substantially in order to allow for snowfall amount wording of
generally little accumulation if any in most valley and lowland
locations. Even mountain locations are not expected to obtain much
snowfall from this passing system. Additionally a slight chance of
light freezing rain is mentioned roughly south of a line in the
vicinity of the lower East Slopes of the North Cascades over to
Wenatchee and the Moses lake/Ritzville area. Furthermore the
expectation is that any and all disturbances passing through the
area between now and Friday are not very strong so stagnant
conditions will continue, as such the air stagnation advisory has
been extended until Noon Friday. /Pelatti

Tuesday Night through Saturday Night: This period of the forecast
will be characterized by weak Pacific frontal systems trying to
move through a ridge of high pressure. The result is slow moving
weather systems with low amounts of precipitation. The first front
on Tuesday is very weak and essentially dies as it moves over our
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. As similar-looking disturbance
moves through the region on Thursday. A somewhat stronger system
arrives for Friday. This event has the highest confidence of
appreciable precipitation.

The toughest part of the forecast is precipitation type. The
Cascades and nearby Wenatchee-to-Omak region should see all snow,
while southeast areas (L-C valley, Pullman) will see all rain.
Points north of a line from Pullman to Omak are more problematic,
so the forecast wording will largely be a rain/snow mix. Much of
this will rely on timing (i.e. morning vs afternoon) as well as
elevation.

Snow Amounts:  For the Tuesday and Thursday systems, if anyone
gets an inch of snow they`ll be the lucky ones. Most will just see
a dusting at best. The Friday front should bring 2-4 inches to
the Cascade valleys, with 1-2 inches in the northern valleys. The
Spokane/Cd`A metro area is a very tough call. At this point the
precipitation looks to arrive in the afternoon which would mean
more rain than snow. But a 6-hour slower timing could change that
considerably. RJ

Sunday through Monday night...Odds are looking good that this will
be the wettest period of this forecast. The weak splitting system
earlier this week should not be the case by the time we head into
the latter half of the weekend. Strong zonal or westerly flow is
now supported by all models and the GFS ensemble mean. A west-
southwest upper level jet ranging from 120-150kts will head into
the Inland NW either late Saturday night or Sunday while
entertaining a well defined atmospheric river with origins west of
Hawaii. This spells a very good chance of a wet and warm
period...at least until the jet sags south of the region on Monday
night. Initially we could see snow levels on the valley floors
late Saturday night/early Sunday near the Canadian border and in
the lee of the Cascades, but given this is a very dynamic system,
the snow levels should have no trouble rising steadily. The
slowest location for the warming will be over the northern
Cascades...mainly north of Lake Chelan where appreciable snows
will be possible. There could also be some brief freezing rain in
the lee of the Cascades early Sunday. Precipitation totals could
range from 1-2 inches of liquid near the Cascade Crest and a small
part of the Idaho Panhandle...with significantly lighter amounts
over the Columbia Basin...Wenatchee Area... and Okanogan Valley.
Windy conditions look like a good possibility as well with
temperatures surging into the 40s if not lower 50s as the warmer
air moves in from the southwest. The cooler air will begin to move
into the area on Monday night with the threat of precipitation
gradually decreasing from the west-northwest. fx


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Northeast winds at the surface will keep low stratus
banked up against the east slopes of the WA Cascades and across
the lower Columbia Basin this evening into tonight. A weak upper
level low pressure system will push across the region tonight into
Tuesday. Cigs will lower through the overnight hours with light
precip possible at KEAT and KMWH between 08-12Z and at KGEG, KSFF
and KCOE around 15Z. Confidence is highest for KEAT with IFR/LIFR
conditions expected and confidence decreases further east near the
ID Panhandle. Precip type is expected to be snow at KEAT, KGEG,
KSFF and KCOE. Brief moderate snowfall will be possible at KEAT
through the morning hours on Tuesday and KMWH could see a mix of
snow with light freezing rain. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        26  35  29  38  30  36 /   0  60  20  20  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  26  35  30  40  31  36 /   0  10  20  20  30  40
Pullman        28  40  29  42  31  40 /  10  20  10  20  30  30
Lewiston       31  41  32  42  33  42 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Colville       25  33  27  36  29  35 /   0  50  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      24  33  28  36  29  34 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Kellogg        25  35  30  38  31  35 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Moses Lake     27  36  27  38  26  36 /  30  60  10  30  20  10
Wenatchee      30  35  31  37  29  34 /  50  70  20  30  20  20
Omak           25  33  26  34  25  31 /  10  70  30  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 152234
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...High pressure and cool northeast winds
combined with a general decrease in cloud cover this early evening
will allow for efficient cooling and allow most locations to fall
below freezing again tonight. An upper level disturbance with
limited moisture and energy overruns it in a south to north
fashion overnight and tomorrow. Pops have been increased
substantially in order to allow for snowfall amount wording of
generally little accumulation if any in most valley and lowland
locations. Even mountain locations are not expected to obtain much
snowfall from this passing system. Additionally a slight chance of
light freezing rain is mentioned roughly south of a line in the
vicinity of the lower East Slopes of the North Cascades over to
Wenatchee and the Moses lake/Ritzville area. Furthermore the
expectation is that any and all disturbances passing through the
area between now and Friday are not very strong so stagnant
conditions will continue, as such the air stagnation advisory has
been extended until Noon Friday. /Pelatti

Tuesday Night through Saturday Night: This period of the forecast
will be characterized by weak Pacific frontal systems trying to
move through a ridge of high pressure. The result is slow moving
weather systems with low amounts of precipitation. The first front
on Tuesday is very weak and essentially dies as it moves over our
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. As similar-looking disturbance
moves through the region on Thursday. A somewhat stronger system
arrives for Friday. This event has the highest confidence of
appreciable precipitation.

The toughest part of the forecast is precipitation type. The
Cascades and nearby Wenatchee-to-Omak region should see all snow,
while southeast areas (L-C valley, Pullman) will see all rain.
Points north of a line from Pullman to Omak are more problematic,
so the forecast wording will largely be a rain/snow mix. Much of
this will rely on timing (i.e. morning vs afternoon) as well as
elevation.

Snow Amounts:  For the Tuesday and Thursday systems, if anyone
gets an inch of snow they`ll be the lucky ones. Most will just see
a dusting at best. The Friday front should bring 2-4 inches to
the Cascade valleys, with 1-2 inches in the northern valleys. The
Spokane/Cd`A metro area is a very tough call. At this point the
precipitation looks to arrive in the afternoon which would mean
more rain than snow. But a 6-hour slower timing could change that
considerably. RJ

Sunday through Monday night...Odds are looking good that this will
be the wettest period of this forecast. The weak splitting system
earlier this week should not be the case by the time we head into
the latter half of the weekend. Strong zonal or westerly flow is
now supported by all models and the GFS ensemble mean. A west-
southwest upper level jet ranging from 120-150kts will head into
the Inland NW either late Saturday night or Sunday while
entertaining a well defined atmospheric river with origins west of
Hawaii. This spells a very good chance of a wet and warm
period...at least until the jet sags south of the region on Monday
night. Initially we could see snow levels on the valley floors
late Saturday night/early Sunday near the Canadian border and in
the lee of the Cascades, but given this is a very dynamic system,
the snow levels should have no trouble rising steadily. The
slowest location for the warming will be over the northern
Cascades...mainly north of Lake Chelan where appreciable snows
will be possible. There could also be some brief freezing rain in
the lee of the Cascades early Sunday. Precipitation totals could
range from 1-2 inches of liquid near the Cascade Crest and a small
part of the Idaho Panhandle...with significantly lighter amounts
over the Columbia Basin...Wenatchee Area... and Okanogan Valley.
Windy conditions look like a good possibility as well with
temperatures surging into the 40s if not lower 50s as the warmer
air moves in from the southwest. The cooler air will begin to move
into the area on Monday night with the threat of precipitation
gradually decreasing from the west-northwest. fx


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure keeping inversions over the area favorable
for pesky fog and low cloud formation and persistence. Low level
northeast wind downsloping off the North Idaho Mountains improving
many of the lowland locations roughly from Spokane down to
Pullman and extending west to close proximity to Moses lake.
Locations with the Fog and low clouds will have LIFR ceilings and
visibilities a good chunk of the overnight and morning hours with
some improvement in the afternoons and evenings. Otherwise a minor
weather disturbance will overrun the region in a south to north
fashion and bring a chance of very light snow to most locations
from about 12Z Tuesday and on through Tuesday afternoon. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        26  35  29  38  30  36 /   0  60  20  20  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  26  35  30  40  31  36 /   0  10  20  20  30  40
Pullman        28  40  29  42  31  40 /  10  20  10  20  30  30
Lewiston       31  41  32  42  33  42 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Colville       25  33  27  36  29  35 /   0  50  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      24  33  28  36  29  34 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Kellogg        25  35  30  38  31  35 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Moses Lake     27  36  27  38  26  36 /  30  60  10  30  20  10
Wenatchee      30  35  31  37  29  34 /  50  70  20  30  20  20
Omak           25  33  26  34  25  31 /  10  70  30  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 152234
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow
tonight and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active
weather pattern will develop late in the week with generally
mountain snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...High pressure and cool northeast winds
combined with a general decrease in cloud cover this early evening
will allow for efficient cooling and allow most locations to fall
below freezing again tonight. An upper level disturbance with
limited moisture and energy overruns it in a south to north
fashion overnight and tomorrow. Pops have been increased
substantially in order to allow for snowfall amount wording of
generally little accumulation if any in most valley and lowland
locations. Even mountain locations are not expected to obtain much
snowfall from this passing system. Additionally a slight chance of
light freezing rain is mentioned roughly south of a line in the
vicinity of the lower East Slopes of the North Cascades over to
Wenatchee and the Moses lake/Ritzville area. Furthermore the
expectation is that any and all disturbances passing through the
area between now and Friday are not very strong so stagnant
conditions will continue, as such the air stagnation advisory has
been extended until Noon Friday. /Pelatti

Tuesday Night through Saturday Night: This period of the forecast
will be characterized by weak Pacific frontal systems trying to
move through a ridge of high pressure. The result is slow moving
weather systems with low amounts of precipitation. The first front
on Tuesday is very weak and essentially dies as it moves over our
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. As similar-looking disturbance
moves through the region on Thursday. A somewhat stronger system
arrives for Friday. This event has the highest confidence of
appreciable precipitation.

The toughest part of the forecast is precipitation type. The
Cascades and nearby Wenatchee-to-Omak region should see all snow,
while southeast areas (L-C valley, Pullman) will see all rain.
Points north of a line from Pullman to Omak are more problematic,
so the forecast wording will largely be a rain/snow mix. Much of
this will rely on timing (i.e. morning vs afternoon) as well as
elevation.

Snow Amounts:  For the Tuesday and Thursday systems, if anyone
gets an inch of snow they`ll be the lucky ones. Most will just see
a dusting at best. The Friday front should bring 2-4 inches to
the Cascade valleys, with 1-2 inches in the northern valleys. The
Spokane/Cd`A metro area is a very tough call. At this point the
precipitation looks to arrive in the afternoon which would mean
more rain than snow. But a 6-hour slower timing could change that
considerably. RJ

Sunday through Monday night...Odds are looking good that this will
be the wettest period of this forecast. The weak splitting system
earlier this week should not be the case by the time we head into
the latter half of the weekend. Strong zonal or westerly flow is
now supported by all models and the GFS ensemble mean. A west-
southwest upper level jet ranging from 120-150kts will head into
the Inland NW either late Saturday night or Sunday while
entertaining a well defined atmospheric river with origins west of
Hawaii. This spells a very good chance of a wet and warm
period...at least until the jet sags south of the region on Monday
night. Initially we could see snow levels on the valley floors
late Saturday night/early Sunday near the Canadian border and in
the lee of the Cascades, but given this is a very dynamic system,
the snow levels should have no trouble rising steadily. The
slowest location for the warming will be over the northern
Cascades...mainly north of Lake Chelan where appreciable snows
will be possible. There could also be some brief freezing rain in
the lee of the Cascades early Sunday. Precipitation totals could
range from 1-2 inches of liquid near the Cascade Crest and a small
part of the Idaho Panhandle...with significantly lighter amounts
over the Columbia Basin...Wenatchee Area... and Okanogan Valley.
Windy conditions look like a good possibility as well with
temperatures surging into the 40s if not lower 50s as the warmer
air moves in from the southwest. The cooler air will begin to move
into the area on Monday night with the threat of precipitation
gradually decreasing from the west-northwest. fx


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure keeping inversions over the area favorable
for pesky fog and low cloud formation and persistence. Low level
northeast wind downsloping off the North Idaho Mountains improving
many of the lowland locations roughly from Spokane down to
Pullman and extending west to close proximity to Moses lake.
Locations with the Fog and low clouds will have LIFR ceilings and
visibilities a good chunk of the overnight and morning hours with
some improvement in the afternoons and evenings. Otherwise a minor
weather disturbance will overrun the region in a south to north
fashion and bring a chance of very light snow to most locations
from about 12Z Tuesday and on through Tuesday afternoon. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        26  35  29  38  30  36 /   0  60  20  20  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  26  35  30  40  31  36 /   0  10  20  20  30  40
Pullman        28  40  29  42  31  40 /  10  20  10  20  30  30
Lewiston       31  41  32  42  33  42 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Colville       25  33  27  36  29  35 /   0  50  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      24  33  28  36  29  34 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Kellogg        25  35  30  38  31  35 /   0  10  20  10  30  40
Moses Lake     27  36  27  38  26  36 /  30  60  10  30  20  10
Wenatchee      30  35  31  37  29  34 /  50  70  20  30  20  20
Omak           25  33  26  34  25  31 /  10  70  30  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 151744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
944 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog will persist today over much of the western
Columbia Basin with cool but generally sunny conditions elsewhere.
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow tonight
and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active weather
pattern will develop late in the week with generally mountain
snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning updates to adjust sky cover based on current satellite
imagery which shows morning low clouds and fog in many but not all
valley and lowland locations in Eastern Washington and North Idaho
this morning. Low level northeast wind keeping a good portion of
the northeast edge of the Columbia Basin and lowlands in the
Spokane down to Pullman area fog free or quickly diminishing any
of the few bits of fog and low clouds still left there.
Temperatures adjusted for a few degrees to account for a bit more
warming for those cloud and fog free locations. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure keeping inversions over the area favorable
for pesky fog and low cloud formation and persistence. Low level
northeast wind downsloping off the North Idaho Mountains improving
many of the lowland locations roughtly from Spokane down to
Pullmand and extending west to close proximity to Moses lake.
Locations with the Fog and low clouds will have LIFR ceilings and
visibilities a good chunk of the overnight and morning hours with
some improvement in the afternoons and evenings. Otherwise a minor
weather disturbance will overrun the region in a south to north
fashion and bring a chance of very light snow to most locations
from about 12Z Tuesday and on through Tuesday afternoon. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  26  35  29  37  28 /   0   0  10  20  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  41  26  35  30  38  30 /   0   0  10  20  10  30
Pullman        42  28  40  29  40  29 /   0  10  20  10  10  20
Lewiston       42  31  41  31  41  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       37  25  33  29  36  26 /   0   0  20  30  10  30
Sandpoint      37  24  33  28  35  27 /   0   0  10  20  20  30
Kellogg        39  25  35  29  38  29 /   0   0  10  20  20  30
Moses Lake     40  27  36  29  37  25 /   0  30  40  20  10  20
Wenatchee      36  30  35  31  37  28 /  10  50  70  20  10  20
Omak           35  25  33  28  34  24 /  10  10  70  30  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 151744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
944 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog will persist today over much of the western
Columbia Basin with cool but generally sunny conditions elsewhere.
A weak storm system will bring light accumulations of snow tonight
and Tuesday to the areas near the Cascades. A more active weather
pattern will develop late in the week with generally mountain
snow and valley rain or minimally accumulating snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning updates to adjust sky cover based on current satellite
imagery which shows morning low clouds and fog in many but not all
valley and lowland locations in Eastern Washington and North Idaho
this morning. Low level northeast wind keeping a good portion of
the northeast edge of the Columbia Basin and lowlands in the
Spokane down to Pullman area fog free or quickly diminishing any
of the few bits of fog and low clouds still left there.
Temperatures adjusted for a few degrees to account for a bit more
warming for those cloud and fog free locations. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure keeping inversions over the area favorable
for pesky fog and low cloud formation and persistence. Low level
northeast wind downsloping off the North Idaho Mountains improving
many of the lowland locations roughtly from Spokane down to
Pullmand and extending west to close proximity to Moses lake.
Locations with the Fog and low clouds will have LIFR ceilings and
visibilities a good chunk of the overnight and morning hours with
some improvement in the afternoons and evenings. Otherwise a minor
weather disturbance will overrun the region in a south to north
fashion and bring a chance of very light snow to most locations
from about 12Z Tuesday and on through Tuesday afternoon. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  26  35  29  37  28 /   0   0  10  20  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  41  26  35  30  38  30 /   0   0  10  20  10  30
Pullman        42  28  40  29  40  29 /   0  10  20  10  10  20
Lewiston       42  31  41  31  41  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       37  25  33  29  36  26 /   0   0  20  30  10  30
Sandpoint      37  24  33  28  35  27 /   0   0  10  20  20  30
Kellogg        39  25  35  29  38  29 /   0   0  10  20  20  30
Moses Lake     40  27  36  29  37  25 /   0  30  40  20  10  20
Wenatchee      36  30  35  31  37  28 /  10  50  70  20  10  20
Omak           35  25  33  28  34  24 /  10  10  70  30  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





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