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000
FXUS66 KOTX 300446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. A weak
disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z will deliver
increasing mid and high level clouds to all sites...but little
else. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 300446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. A weak
disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z will deliver
increasing mid and high level clouds to all sites...but little
else. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 291627
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
927 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Heat Advisory has been expanded this afternoon to include the
Wenatchee area and the Okanogan Valley. Eastern Washington Heat
Advisory Criteria is temperatures of 103 degrees or more.
Elevations below 2000 feet from Oroville to Brewster to Wenatchee
should easily reach criteria this afternoon. The light winds will
make conditions this afternoon particularly stifling today. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 291122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnants
of Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 291122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnants
of Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290929
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
229 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnantsof
Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290929
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
229 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnantsof
Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 290453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 290453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
519 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will prevail for the next 24
hours under high pressure. RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 290020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
519 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will prevail for the next 24
hours under high pressure. RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 281833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...Strong ridge continues to build over the Inland
Northwest today. This will result in hot temperatures for all
locations with triple digit heat expected across portions of the
LC Valley...lower Columbia Basin...and Okanogan Valley. The
warmest temperatures will generally coincide with the heat
advisory which was issued earlier for the lower Columbia Basin and
LC Valley. The heat will also feature low relative humidity values
for all locations. Fortunately, we only foresee light winds
across the region for this afternoon.

Aside from these issues...there is a weak disturbance pushing
through SE Washington at this time. There is a pool of mid-level
moisture and a little instability associated with said feature.
According to radar and local observations...some of this was
manifesting itself as sprinkles. Based on extrapolation and fine
temporal resolution model data, we would expect most of this to
shift into Montana and south of the Camas Prairie by 2 pm.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...Strong ridge continues to build over the Inland
Northwest today. This will result in hot temperatures for all
locations with triple digit heat expected across portions of the
LC Valley...lower Columbia Basin...and Okanogan Valley. The
warmest temperatures will generally coincide with the heat
advisory which was issued earlier for the lower Columbia Basin and
LC Valley. The heat will also feature low relative humidity values
for all locations. Fortunately, we only foresee light winds
across the region for this afternoon.

Aside from these issues...there is a weak disturbance pushing
through SE Washington at this time. There is a pool of mid-level
moisture and a little instability associated with said feature.
According to radar and local observations...some of this was
manifesting itself as sprinkles. Based on extrapolation and fine
temporal resolution model data, we would expect most of this to
shift into Montana and south of the Camas Prairie by 2 pm.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280910
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
210 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area. A
sprinkle is possible overnight in southeast Washington. Otherwise
weather will remain VFR for the next 24 hours. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280910
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
210 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area. A
sprinkle is possible overnight in southeast Washington. Otherwise
weather will remain VFR for the next 24 hours. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280910
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
210 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area. A
sprinkle is possible overnight in southeast Washington. Otherwise
weather will remain VFR for the next 24 hours. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 280426
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
926 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM OREGON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE MID/HIGH LEVEL (I.E. ABOVE 15,000 FEET). THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK
OBSERVED WAS OVER LAKEVIEW, OR AT 12,000 FEET. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY MORNING.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS. THE
GFS OVER-DID THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER OREGON
TODAY. NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EVEN TOUGHER TO ASSESS.
THE SHORT WAVE LIFT IS VERY WEAK. IF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY
UNSTABLE, THE LIFT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, IT DOESN`T LOOK
VERY LIKELY FOR ANY THUNDER. THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM DO SHOW SOME
WEAK ECHOES MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON PDT`S RADAR OVER OREGON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 20,000 FEET ON THIS AFTERNOON`S SOUNDING, I`D BE
SURPRISED IF ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE COULD REACH THE GROUND.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW. THE NEW NAM RUN HAS
US SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS ONLY
WARMS US ABOUT 2 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HEAT
ADVISORY ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. A
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. OTHERWISE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        67  97  67  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
COEUR D`ALENE  62  94  61  97  64  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
PULLMAN        58  97  57  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
LEWISTON       69 103  69 103  72 101 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
COLVILLE       57  98  57 100  60 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
SANDPOINT      54  92  54  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
KELLOGG        60  92  61  93  62  91 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
MOSES LAKE     64 102  64 103  67 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
WENATCHEE      71 102  71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
OMAK           64 101  65 103  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LEWISTON
     AREA.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
     GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
     BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280426
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
926 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA
FROM OREGON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE MID/HIGH LEVEL (I.E. ABOVE 15,000 FEET). THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK
OBSERVED WAS OVER LAKEVIEW, OR AT 12,000 FEET. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXIT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY MORNING.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS. THE
GFS OVER-DID THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER OREGON
TODAY. NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EVEN TOUGHER TO ASSESS.
THE SHORT WAVE LIFT IS VERY WEAK. IF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY
UNSTABLE, THE LIFT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, IT DOESN`T LOOK
VERY LIKELY FOR ANY THUNDER. THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM DO SHOW SOME
WEAK ECHOES MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS SHOWING UP ON PDT`S RADAR OVER OREGON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE BELOW 20,000 FEET ON THIS AFTERNOON`S SOUNDING, I`D BE
SURPRISED IF ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE COULD REACH THE GROUND.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW. THE NEW NAM RUN HAS
US SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS ONLY
WARMS US ABOUT 2 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HEAT
ADVISORY ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. A
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. OTHERWISE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RJ


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        67  97  67  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
COEUR D`ALENE  62  94  61  97  64  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
PULLMAN        58  97  57  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
LEWISTON       69 103  69 103  72 101 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
COLVILLE       57  98  57 100  60 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
SANDPOINT      54  92  54  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
KELLOGG        60  92  61  93  62  91 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
MOSES LAKE     64 102  64 103  67 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
WENATCHEE      71 102  71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
OMAK           64 101  65 103  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LEWISTON
     AREA.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
     GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
     BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 272331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: The upper level ridge has pumped up
across the region today. Hope you enjoyed the pleasant
temperatures the last few days because it is going to get really
hot on Monday and Tuesday. A weather disturbance is moving up from
western Oregon this afternoon. The main impact will be an increase
in cloud cover. Have increased cloud cover, especially this
evening across the area. There is very little moisture below 10k
ft and no instability with this feature so am not anticipating any
showers or thunderstorms. The wave will move out of the Idaho
Panhandle Monday morning with mostly sunny skies expected through
the day. With no marine layer on the west side to deal with, winds
will be light. Have decided to issue a heat advisory for the
Columbia Basin, Washington Palouse, lower elevations of Garfield
and Asotin Counties and the Lewiston area. They will see
temperatures around 103 or higher Monday and Tuesday with
overnight lows above 65. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Thursday: The ridge will be in full force
during the mid-week time frame (and beyond), with mostly dry and
hot temperatures to continue. However, a weak wave moving
northeast may have some impacts over far southeast Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday/Wednesday night. This is agreed
upon by most models, which has been the most consistent solution
for the past few days. However, one model (NAM) is bringing
moisture further west and also developing showers and
thunderstorms further west. And given what will have been several
days of hot/dry, the thunderstorms would be on the drier side.
This would obviously have implications on ongoing wildfire-
fighting efforts. This forecast continued with the more
consistent solution and kept the west dry. Isolated chances for
thunderstorms were maintained for far southeast Washington into
the Idaho Panhandle however. Another very weak disturbance may be
able to trigger isolated thunderstorms once again Thursday
afternoon over the east.

Friday through Sunday night: Perhaps a more significant wave will
traverse the Inland Northwest on Friday and Saturday. This has
been advertised for the past few days, and while it doesn`t look
too impressive, it should be able to kick off a bit more
widespread thunderstorms. By that I mean thunderstorms will have a
better chance developing further west, not just over the east.
The thunderstorms would likely be wetter (precipitable water
values over an inch) than earlier in the week, which would
hopefully translate into few, if any, new fire starts.

Temperatures will remain hot each afternoon, mainly in the 90s
with several areas reaching/exceeding 100 degrees. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Some high and mid level clouds were moving over the
region at 00z. This should continue overnight and then clear some
by 28/12Z. Winds will remain light with some diurnal variation. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  97  67  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  61  97  64  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        58  97  57  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       69 103  69 103  72 101 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       57  98  57 100  60 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      54  92  54  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        60  92  61  93  62  91 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     64 102  64 103  67 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      71 102  71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           64 101  65 103  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston
     Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 272127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: The upper level ridge has pumped up
across the region today. Hope you enjoyed the pleasant
temperatures the last few days because it is going to get really
hot on Monday and Tuesday. A weather disturbance is moving up from
western Oregon this afternoon. The main impact will be an increase
in cloud cover. Have increased cloud cover, especially this
evening across the area. There is very little moisture below 10k
ft and no instability with this feature so am not anticipating any
showers or thunderstorms. The wave will move out of the Idaho
Panhandle Monday morning with mostly sunny skies expected through
the day. With no marine layer on the west side to deal with, winds
will be light. Have decided to issue a heat advisory for the
Columbia Basin, Washington Palouse, lower elevations of Garfield
and Asotin Counties and the Lewiston area. They will see
temperatures around 103 or higher Monday and Tuesday with
overnight lows above 65. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Thursday: The ridge will be in full force
during the mid-week time frame (and beyond), with mostly dry and
hot temperatures to continue. However, a weak wave moving
northeast may have some impacts over far southeast Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday/Wednesday night. This is agreed
upon by most models, which has been the most consistent solution
for the past few days. However, one model (NAM) is bringing
moisture further west and also developing showers and
thunderstorms further west. And given what will have been several
days of hot/dry, the thunderstorms would be on the drier side.
This would obviously have implications on ongoing wildfire-
fighting efforts. This forecast continued with the more
consistent solution and kept the west dry. Isolated chances for
thunderstorms were maintained for far southeast Washington into
the Idaho Panhandle however. Another very weak disturbance may be
able to trigger isolated thunderstorms once again Thursday
afternoon over the east.

Friday through Sunday night: Perhaps a more significant wave will
traverse the Inland Northwest on Friday and Saturday. This has
been advertised for the past few days, and while it doesn`t look
too impressive, it should be able to kick off a bit more
widespread thunderstorms. By that I mean thunderstorms will have a
better chance developing further west, not just over the east.
The thunderstorms would likely be wetter (precipitable water
values over an inch) than earlier in the week, which would
hopefully translate into few, if any, new fire starts.

Temperatures will remain hot each afternoon, mainly in the 90s
with several areas reaching/exceeding 100 degrees. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect some high clouds during the period as moisture
is pushed north along the west side of the four corners high.
Winds will remain light with some diurnal variation. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  97  67  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  61  97  64  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        58  97  57  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       69 103  69 103  72 101 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       57  98  57 100  60 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      54  92  54  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        60  92  61  93  62  91 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     64 102  64 103  67 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      71 102  71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           64 101  65 103  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston
     Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&






000
FXUS66 KOTX 272127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: The upper level ridge has pumped up
across the region today. Hope you enjoyed the pleasant
temperatures the last few days because it is going to get really
hot on Monday and Tuesday. A weather disturbance is moving up from
western Oregon this afternoon. The main impact will be an increase
in cloud cover. Have increased cloud cover, especially this
evening across the area. There is very little moisture below 10k
ft and no instability with this feature so am not anticipating any
showers or thunderstorms. The wave will move out of the Idaho
Panhandle Monday morning with mostly sunny skies expected through
the day. With no marine layer on the west side to deal with, winds
will be light. Have decided to issue a heat advisory for the
Columbia Basin, Washington Palouse, lower elevations of Garfield
and Asotin Counties and the Lewiston area. They will see
temperatures around 103 or higher Monday and Tuesday with
overnight lows above 65. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Thursday: The ridge will be in full force
during the mid-week time frame (and beyond), with mostly dry and
hot temperatures to continue. However, a weak wave moving
northeast may have some impacts over far southeast Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday/Wednesday night. This is agreed
upon by most models, which has been the most consistent solution
for the past few days. However, one model (NAM) is bringing
moisture further west and also developing showers and
thunderstorms further west. And given what will have been several
days of hot/dry, the thunderstorms would be on the drier side.
This would obviously have implications on ongoing wildfire-
fighting efforts. This forecast continued with the more
consistent solution and kept the west dry. Isolated chances for
thunderstorms were maintained for far southeast Washington into
the Idaho Panhandle however. Another very weak disturbance may be
able to trigger isolated thunderstorms once again Thursday
afternoon over the east.

Friday through Sunday night: Perhaps a more significant wave will
traverse the Inland Northwest on Friday and Saturday. This has
been advertised for the past few days, and while it doesn`t look
too impressive, it should be able to kick off a bit more
widespread thunderstorms. By that I mean thunderstorms will have a
better chance developing further west, not just over the east.
The thunderstorms would likely be wetter (precipitable water
values over an inch) than earlier in the week, which would
hopefully translate into few, if any, new fire starts.

Temperatures will remain hot each afternoon, mainly in the 90s
with several areas reaching/exceeding 100 degrees. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect some high clouds during the period as moisture
is pushed north along the west side of the four corners high.
Winds will remain light with some diurnal variation. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  97  67  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  61  97  64  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        58  97  57  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       69 103  69 103  72 101 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       57  98  57 100  60 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      54  92  54  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        60  92  61  93  62  91 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     64 102  64 103  67 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      71 102  71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           64 101  65 103  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston
     Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1051 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend begins Sunday. Hot temperatures will
persist through the work week, with an increased risk for
thunderstorms by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Monday: A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly
clear, warm conditions. However some threat of thunder starts to
creep in. The ridge axis amplifies over the Rockies today and the
Inland NW will be on its western flank, in a developing southwest
flow. The building ridge and southwest flow will allow
temperatures to push well above normal today and especially
Monday, provided increasing cloud cover doesn`t hinder things.

Early this morning a mid-level disturbance was off the central
California coast, producing a few radar returns and a handful of
lightning strikes. With the aforementioned developing southwest
flow, that disturbance is forecast to track into Oregon by late
today and across WA and ID tonight into Monday. This will lead to
increasing high clouds from late afternoon to evening south and
middle to high clouds throughout the region late tonight into
Monday. Some of the thicker clouds are expected across the
southeast WA to the central Panhandle.

The larger question: will that disturbance produce anything
thunder? The atmosphere appears too dry to allow much
precipitation, but that doesn`t preclude elevated dry convection.
Some models show pockets of 850-500mb CAPE and broader areas of
favorable HLTT coming into the deeper Columbia Basin and near the
East Slopes of the Cascades late this evening and overnight.
Others are not as generous, keeping the brunt of it over Oregon.
The disturbance itself looks strong enough to produce activity but
I`m not impressed with the instability to add any appreciable
thunder threat to the forecast for tonight. I did add some slight
threat toward the Blues/Camas Prairie late overnight. If anything
develops over north Oregon I could see some advect north into the
Upper Columbia Basin, but confidence is low. On Monday weaker
impulses slip by and models place some instability near the
Cascade crest again and in the vicinity of the eastern mountains.
Confidence is too low to put any appreciable threat of
showers/thunder in the forecast in these areas either. However I
kept slight thunder chances alive around the Blues/Camas Prairie
and higher mountains across Shoshone county. I added some 10
percent PoPs to the Cascades, but this is too low to allow any
mention of the threat in the forecast. All this will have to be
monitored closely. /J. Cote`

Monday night though Saturday...A static upper level flow regime
featuring a strong ridge axis just east of the forecast area will
dominate the extended period. Hot and dry is a near certainty
through the middle of the upcoming week. The main uncertainty
will be the potential for waves of monsoonal moisture to intrude
into the region fueling isolated elevated convection. Latest
models suggest the main threat of this eventuality through midweek
will be over the southeastern zones. Late in the week, especially
toward Friday and Saturday, the latest GFS and EC hint at a
deeper wave of moisture moving into the region for a more general
risk of thunderstorms...however...moisture alone will not do the
job. The presence of at least marginally coherent disturbances
will be necessary to trigger and support any thunderstorm
activity...and the potential for these transient disturbances
looks quite minimal until late in the week when the ridge starts
to weaken and perhaps open the door for some weak disturbances to
move in off the Pacific. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect some high clouds during the period as moisture
is pushed north along the west side of the four corners high.
Winds will remain light with some diurnal variation. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  65  97  66  99  67 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  59  94  60  97  61 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        92  57  96  57  97  59 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       98  68 103  68 103  69 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Colville       93  56  98  55 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      87  53  92  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        87  59  91  60  93  59 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     97  63 102  64 102  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      96  70 101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  63 100  63 102  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1051 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend begins Sunday. Hot temperatures will
persist through the work week, with an increased risk for
thunderstorms by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Monday: A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly
clear, warm conditions. However some threat of thunder starts to
creep in. The ridge axis amplifies over the Rockies today and the
Inland NW will be on its western flank, in a developing southwest
flow. The building ridge and southwest flow will allow
temperatures to push well above normal today and especially
Monday, provided increasing cloud cover doesn`t hinder things.

Early this morning a mid-level disturbance was off the central
California coast, producing a few radar returns and a handful of
lightning strikes. With the aforementioned developing southwest
flow, that disturbance is forecast to track into Oregon by late
today and across WA and ID tonight into Monday. This will lead to
increasing high clouds from late afternoon to evening south and
middle to high clouds throughout the region late tonight into
Monday. Some of the thicker clouds are expected across the
southeast WA to the central Panhandle.

The larger question: will that disturbance produce anything
thunder? The atmosphere appears too dry to allow much
precipitation, but that doesn`t preclude elevated dry convection.
Some models show pockets of 850-500mb CAPE and broader areas of
favorable HLTT coming into the deeper Columbia Basin and near the
East Slopes of the Cascades late this evening and overnight.
Others are not as generous, keeping the brunt of it over Oregon.
The disturbance itself looks strong enough to produce activity but
I`m not impressed with the instability to add any appreciable
thunder threat to the forecast for tonight. I did add some slight
threat toward the Blues/Camas Prairie late overnight. If anything
develops over north Oregon I could see some advect north into the
Upper Columbia Basin, but confidence is low. On Monday weaker
impulses slip by and models place some instability near the
Cascade crest again and in the vicinity of the eastern mountains.
Confidence is too low to put any appreciable threat of
showers/thunder in the forecast in these areas either. However I
kept slight thunder chances alive around the Blues/Camas Prairie
and higher mountains across Shoshone county. I added some 10
percent PoPs to the Cascades, but this is too low to allow any
mention of the threat in the forecast. All this will have to be
monitored closely. /J. Cote`

Monday night though Saturday...A static upper level flow regime
featuring a strong ridge axis just east of the forecast area will
dominate the extended period. Hot and dry is a near certainty
through the middle of the upcoming week. The main uncertainty
will be the potential for waves of monsoonal moisture to intrude
into the region fueling isolated elevated convection. Latest
models suggest the main threat of this eventuality through midweek
will be over the southeastern zones. Late in the week, especially
toward Friday and Saturday, the latest GFS and EC hint at a
deeper wave of moisture moving into the region for a more general
risk of thunderstorms...however...moisture alone will not do the
job. The presence of at least marginally coherent disturbances
will be necessary to trigger and support any thunderstorm
activity...and the potential for these transient disturbances
looks quite minimal until late in the week when the ridge starts
to weaken and perhaps open the door for some weak disturbances to
move in off the Pacific. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Expect some high clouds during the period as moisture
is pushed north along the west side of the four corners high.
Winds will remain light with some diurnal variation. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  65  97  66  99  67 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  59  94  60  97  61 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        92  57  96  57  97  59 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       98  68 103  68 103  69 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Colville       93  56  98  55 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      87  53  92  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        87  59  91  60  93  59 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     97  63 102  64 102  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      96  70 101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  63 100  63 102  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 271120
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend begins Sunday. Hot temperatures will
persist through the work week, with an increased risk for
thunderstorms by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Monday: A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly
clear, warm conditions. However some threat of thunder starts to
creep in. The ridge axis amplifies over the Rockies today and the
Inland NW will be on its western flank, in a developing southwest
flow. The building ridge and southwest flow will allow
temperatures to push well above normal today and especially
Monday, provided increasing cloud cover doesn`t hinder things.

Early this morning a mid-level disturbance was off the central
California coast, producing a few radar returns and a handful of
lightning strikes. With the aforementioned developing southwest
flow, that disturbance is forecast to track into Oregon by late
today and across WA and ID tonight into Monday. This will lead to
increasing high clouds from late afternoon to evening south and
middle to high clouds throughout the region late tonight into
Monday. Some of the thicker clouds are expected across the
southeast WA to the central Panhandle.

The larger question: will that disturbance produce anything
thunder? The atmosphere appears too dry to allow much
precipitation, but that doesn`t preclude elevated dry convection.
Some models show pockets of 850-500mb CAPE and broader areas of
favorable HLTT coming into the deeper Columbia Basin and near the
East Slopes of the Cascades late this evening and overnight.
Others are not as generous, keeping the brunt of it over Oregon.
The disturbance itself looks strong enough to produce activity but
I`m not impressed with the instability to add any appreciable
thunder threat to the forecast for tonight. I did add some slight
threat toward the Blues/Camas Prairie late overnight. If anything
develops over north Oregon I could see some advect north into the
Upper Columbia Basin, but confidence is low. On Monday weaker
impulses slip by and models place some instability near the
Cascade crest again and in the vicinity of the eastern mountains.
Confidence is too low to put any appreciable threat of
showers/thunder in the forecast in these areas either. However I
kept slight thunder chances alive around the Blues/Camas Prairie
and higher mountains across Shoshone county. I added some 10
percent PoPs to the Cascades, but this is too low to allow any
mention of the threat in the forecast. All this will have to be
monitored closely. /J. Cote`

Monday night though Saturday...A static upper level flow regime
featuring a strong ridge axis just east of the forecast area will
dominate the extended period. Hot and dry is a near certainty
through the middle of the upcoming week. The main uncertainty
will be the potential for waves of monsoonal moisture to intrude
into the region fueling isolated elevated convection. Latest
models suggest the main threat of this eventuality through midweek
will be over the southeastern zones. Late in the week, especially
toward Friday and Saturday, the latest GFS and EC hint at a
deeper wave of moisture moving into the region for a more general
risk of thunderstorms...however...moisture alone will not do the
job. The presence of at least marginally coherent disturbances
will be necessary to trigger and support any thunderstorm
activity...and the potential for these transient disturbances
looks quite minimal until late in the week when the ridge starts
to weaken and perhaps open the door for some weak disturbances to
move in off the Pacific. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The region will be on the west side of a ridge of
high pressure. Look for increasing middle to high clouds from the
south later this afternoon and especially later tonight as a
disturbance moves up from CA/OR. There is some potential for
elevated thunder south, but at this time anything that may develop
is expected to remain away from TAF sites. Otherwise look for VFR
conditions and light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  65  97  66  99  67 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  59  94  60  97  61 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        92  57  96  57  97  59 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       98  68 103  68 103  69 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Colville       93  56  98  55 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      87  53  92  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        87  59  91  60  93  59 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     97  63 102  64 102  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      96  70 101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  63 100  63 102  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271120
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend begins Sunday. Hot temperatures will
persist through the work week, with an increased risk for
thunderstorms by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Monday: A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly
clear, warm conditions. However some threat of thunder starts to
creep in. The ridge axis amplifies over the Rockies today and the
Inland NW will be on its western flank, in a developing southwest
flow. The building ridge and southwest flow will allow
temperatures to push well above normal today and especially
Monday, provided increasing cloud cover doesn`t hinder things.

Early this morning a mid-level disturbance was off the central
California coast, producing a few radar returns and a handful of
lightning strikes. With the aforementioned developing southwest
flow, that disturbance is forecast to track into Oregon by late
today and across WA and ID tonight into Monday. This will lead to
increasing high clouds from late afternoon to evening south and
middle to high clouds throughout the region late tonight into
Monday. Some of the thicker clouds are expected across the
southeast WA to the central Panhandle.

The larger question: will that disturbance produce anything
thunder? The atmosphere appears too dry to allow much
precipitation, but that doesn`t preclude elevated dry convection.
Some models show pockets of 850-500mb CAPE and broader areas of
favorable HLTT coming into the deeper Columbia Basin and near the
East Slopes of the Cascades late this evening and overnight.
Others are not as generous, keeping the brunt of it over Oregon.
The disturbance itself looks strong enough to produce activity but
I`m not impressed with the instability to add any appreciable
thunder threat to the forecast for tonight. I did add some slight
threat toward the Blues/Camas Prairie late overnight. If anything
develops over north Oregon I could see some advect north into the
Upper Columbia Basin, but confidence is low. On Monday weaker
impulses slip by and models place some instability near the
Cascade crest again and in the vicinity of the eastern mountains.
Confidence is too low to put any appreciable threat of
showers/thunder in the forecast in these areas either. However I
kept slight thunder chances alive around the Blues/Camas Prairie
and higher mountains across Shoshone county. I added some 10
percent PoPs to the Cascades, but this is too low to allow any
mention of the threat in the forecast. All this will have to be
monitored closely. /J. Cote`

Monday night though Saturday...A static upper level flow regime
featuring a strong ridge axis just east of the forecast area will
dominate the extended period. Hot and dry is a near certainty
through the middle of the upcoming week. The main uncertainty
will be the potential for waves of monsoonal moisture to intrude
into the region fueling isolated elevated convection. Latest
models suggest the main threat of this eventuality through midweek
will be over the southeastern zones. Late in the week, especially
toward Friday and Saturday, the latest GFS and EC hint at a
deeper wave of moisture moving into the region for a more general
risk of thunderstorms...however...moisture alone will not do the
job. The presence of at least marginally coherent disturbances
will be necessary to trigger and support any thunderstorm
activity...and the potential for these transient disturbances
looks quite minimal until late in the week when the ridge starts
to weaken and perhaps open the door for some weak disturbances to
move in off the Pacific. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The region will be on the west side of a ridge of
high pressure. Look for increasing middle to high clouds from the
south later this afternoon and especially later tonight as a
disturbance moves up from CA/OR. There is some potential for
elevated thunder south, but at this time anything that may develop
is expected to remain away from TAF sites. Otherwise look for VFR
conditions and light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  65  97  66  99  67 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  59  94  60  97  61 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        92  57  96  57  97  59 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       98  68 103  68 103  69 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Colville       93  56  98  55 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      87  53  92  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        87  59  91  60  93  59 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     97  63 102  64 102  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      96  70 101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  63 100  63 102  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KOTX 270910
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
210 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend begins Sunday. Hot temperatures will
persist through the work week, with an increased risk for
thunderstorms by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Monday: A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly
clear, warm conditions. However some threat of thunder starts to
creep in. The ridge axis amplifies over the Rockies today and the
Inland NW will be on its western flank, in a developing southwest
flow. The building ridge and southwest flow will allow
temperatures to push well above normal today and especially
Monday, provided increasing cloud cover doesn`t hinder things.

Early this morning a mid-level disturbance was off the central
California coast, producing a few radar returns and a handful of
lightning strikes. With the aforementioned developing southwest
flow, that disturbance is forecast to track into Oregon by late
today and across WA and ID tonight into Monday. This will lead to
increasing high clouds from late afternoon to evening south and
middle to high clouds throughout the region late tonight into
Monday. Some of the thicker clouds are expected across the
southeast WA to the central Panhandle.

The larger question: will that disturbance produce anything
thunder? The atmosphere appears too dry to allow much
precipitation, but that doesn`t preclude elevated dry convection.
Some models show pockets of 850-500mb CAPE and broader areas of
favorable HLTT coming into the deeper Columbia Basin and near the
East Slopes of the Cascades late this evening and overnight.
Others are not as generous, keeping the brunt of it over Oregon.
The disturbance itself looks strong enough to produce activity but
I`m not impressed with the instability to add any appreciable
thunder threat to the forecast for tonight. I did add some slight
threat toward the Blues/Camas Prairie late overnight. If anything
develops over north Oregon I could see some advect north into the
Upper Columbia Basin, but confidence is low. On Monday weaker
impulses slip by and models place some instability near the
Cascade crest again and in the vicinity of the eastern mountains.
Confidence is too low to put any appreciable threat of
showers/thunder in the forecast in these areas either. However I
kept slight thunder chances alive around the Blues/Camas Prairie
and higher mountains across Shoshone county. I added some 10
percent PoPs to the Cascades, but this is too low to allow any
mention of the threat in the forecast. All this will have to be
monitored closely. /J. Cote`

Monday night though Saturday...A static upper level flow regime
featuring a strong ridge axis just east of the forecast area will
dominate the extended period. Hot and dry is a near certainty
through the middle of the upcoming week. The main uncertainty
will be the potential for waves of monsoonal moisture to intrude
into the region fueling isolated elevated convection. Latest
models suggest the main threat of this eventuality through midweek
will be over the southeastern zones. Late in the week, especially
toward Friday and Saturday, the latest GFS and EC hint at a
deeper wave of moisture moving into the region for a more general
risk of thunderstorms...however...moisture alone will not do the
job. The presence of at least marginally coherent disturbances
will be necessary to trigger and support any thunderstorm
activity...and the potential for these transient disturbances
looks quite minimal until late in the week when the ridge starts
to weaken and perhaps open the door for some weak disturbances to
move in off the Pacific. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure for the next 24 hrs means VFR conditions
all TAF sites, with diurnal winds of 10 kts or less. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  65  97  66  99  67 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  59  94  60  97  61 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        92  57  96  57  97  59 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       98  68 103  68 103  69 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Colville       93  56  98  55 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      87  53  92  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        87  59  91  60  93  59 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     97  63 102  64 102  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      96  70 101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  63 100  63 102  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270910
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
210 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend begins Sunday. Hot temperatures will
persist through the work week, with an increased risk for
thunderstorms by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Monday: A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly
clear, warm conditions. However some threat of thunder starts to
creep in. The ridge axis amplifies over the Rockies today and the
Inland NW will be on its western flank, in a developing southwest
flow. The building ridge and southwest flow will allow
temperatures to push well above normal today and especially
Monday, provided increasing cloud cover doesn`t hinder things.

Early this morning a mid-level disturbance was off the central
California coast, producing a few radar returns and a handful of
lightning strikes. With the aforementioned developing southwest
flow, that disturbance is forecast to track into Oregon by late
today and across WA and ID tonight into Monday. This will lead to
increasing high clouds from late afternoon to evening south and
middle to high clouds throughout the region late tonight into
Monday. Some of the thicker clouds are expected across the
southeast WA to the central Panhandle.

The larger question: will that disturbance produce anything
thunder? The atmosphere appears too dry to allow much
precipitation, but that doesn`t preclude elevated dry convection.
Some models show pockets of 850-500mb CAPE and broader areas of
favorable HLTT coming into the deeper Columbia Basin and near the
East Slopes of the Cascades late this evening and overnight.
Others are not as generous, keeping the brunt of it over Oregon.
The disturbance itself looks strong enough to produce activity but
I`m not impressed with the instability to add any appreciable
thunder threat to the forecast for tonight. I did add some slight
threat toward the Blues/Camas Prairie late overnight. If anything
develops over north Oregon I could see some advect north into the
Upper Columbia Basin, but confidence is low. On Monday weaker
impulses slip by and models place some instability near the
Cascade crest again and in the vicinity of the eastern mountains.
Confidence is too low to put any appreciable threat of
showers/thunder in the forecast in these areas either. However I
kept slight thunder chances alive around the Blues/Camas Prairie
and higher mountains across Shoshone county. I added some 10
percent PoPs to the Cascades, but this is too low to allow any
mention of the threat in the forecast. All this will have to be
monitored closely. /J. Cote`

Monday night though Saturday...A static upper level flow regime
featuring a strong ridge axis just east of the forecast area will
dominate the extended period. Hot and dry is a near certainty
through the middle of the upcoming week. The main uncertainty
will be the potential for waves of monsoonal moisture to intrude
into the region fueling isolated elevated convection. Latest
models suggest the main threat of this eventuality through midweek
will be over the southeastern zones. Late in the week, especially
toward Friday and Saturday, the latest GFS and EC hint at a
deeper wave of moisture moving into the region for a more general
risk of thunderstorms...however...moisture alone will not do the
job. The presence of at least marginally coherent disturbances
will be necessary to trigger and support any thunderstorm
activity...and the potential for these transient disturbances
looks quite minimal until late in the week when the ridge starts
to weaken and perhaps open the door for some weak disturbances to
move in off the Pacific. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure for the next 24 hrs means VFR conditions
all TAF sites, with diurnal winds of 10 kts or less. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  65  97  66  99  67 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  90  59  94  60  97  61 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        92  57  96  57  97  59 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       98  68 103  68 103  69 /   0  10  10  10   0  10
Colville       93  56  98  55 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      87  53  92  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        87  59  91  60  93  59 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     97  63 102  64 102  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      96  70 101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  63 100  63 102  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$






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