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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF KGAG AND KWWR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND UPR TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OTHERWISE... HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
COULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
THEN SHOW ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
IF THIS HAPPENS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER... THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS
HAPPENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  75  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  75  98  73 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     99  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF KGAG AND KWWR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND UPR TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OTHERWISE... HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
COULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
THEN SHOW ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
IF THIS HAPPENS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER... THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS
HAPPENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  75  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  75  98  73 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     99  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210817
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND UPR TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OTHERWISE... HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
COULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
THEN SHOW ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
IF THIS HAPPENS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER... THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS
HAPPENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  75  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  75  98  73 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     99  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210817
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND UPR TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OTHERWISE... HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
COULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
THEN SHOW ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
IF THIS HAPPENS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER... THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS
HAPPENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  75  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  76 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  75  98  73 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     99  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210442
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN WEST TEXAS HAS ENDED OR
WEAKENED THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH TO MID CLOUDS SHOULD SKIRT
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS HOLDING THEIR OWN...MORE SO THAN ANY MODEL
DEPICTS. THERE IS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS BUT COLD POOL TRYING TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WE WILL
INTRODUCE POPS TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH
STABILIZATION BUT LOW LEVEL JET MORE PROMINENT AND MAY KEEP RAIN
GOING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SSWSLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW OVER THE WNW WHERE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL SUPPORT SCHC POPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR NW OK SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. BEFORE NEXT WEEK THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. RELIEF APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY BY DAY 8
THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210442
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN WEST TEXAS HAS ENDED OR
WEAKENED THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH TO MID CLOUDS SHOULD SKIRT
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS HOLDING THEIR OWN...MORE SO THAN ANY MODEL
DEPICTS. THERE IS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS BUT COLD POOL TRYING TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WE WILL
INTRODUCE POPS TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH
STABILIZATION BUT LOW LEVEL JET MORE PROMINENT AND MAY KEEP RAIN
GOING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SSWSLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW OVER THE WNW WHERE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL SUPPORT SCHC POPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR NW OK SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. BEFORE NEXT WEEK THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. RELIEF APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY BY DAY 8
THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210250
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS HOLDING THEIR OWN...MORE SO THAN ANY MODEL
DEPICTS. THERE IS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS BUT COLD POOL TRYING TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WE WILL
INTRODUCE POPS TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH
STABILIZATION BUT LOW LEVEL JET MORE PROMINENT AND MAY KEEP RAIN
GOING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SSWSLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW OVER THE WNW WHERE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL SUPPORT SCHC POPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR NW OK SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. BEFORE NEXT WEEK THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. RELIEF APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY BY DAY 8
THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SSWSLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW OVER THE WNW WHERE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL SUPPORT SCHC POPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR NW OK SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. BEFORE NEXT WEEK THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR ANY SIGNFICANT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. RELIEF APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY BY DAY 8
THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202053
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SSWSLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW OVER THE WNW WHERE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL SUPPORT SCHC POPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR NW OK SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. BEFORE NEXT WEEK THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR ANY SIGNFICANT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. RELIEF APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY BY DAY 8
THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202053
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SSWSLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW OVER THE WNW WHERE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL SUPPORT SCHC POPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR NW OK SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. BEFORE NEXT WEEK THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR ANY SIGNFICANT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. RELIEF APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY BY DAY 8
THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201729
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW MID TO UPPER
CLOUDS...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...REMAIN PRESENT S AND E
OF OUN...BUT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS... CURRENTLY IN NORTH TEXAS... COULD MOVE
NORTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH
MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPR
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE FA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP... THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAIN TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR THE FA... THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
THEN SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  97  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  98  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  99 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201729
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW MID TO UPPER
CLOUDS...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...REMAIN PRESENT S AND E
OF OUN...BUT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS... CURRENTLY IN NORTH TEXAS... COULD MOVE
NORTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH
MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPR
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE FA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP... THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAIN TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR THE FA... THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
THEN SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  97  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  98  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  99 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS... CURRENTLY IN NORTH TEXAS... COULD MOVE
NORTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH
MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPR
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE FA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP... THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAIN TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR THE FA... THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
THEN SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  75  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         97  74  97  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201114
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS... CURRENTLY IN NORTH TEXAS... COULD MOVE
NORTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH
MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPR
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE FA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP... THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAIN TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR THE FA... THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
THEN SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  75  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         97  74  97  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS... CURRENTLY IN NORTH TEXAS... COULD MOVE
NORTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH
MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPR
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE FA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP... THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAIN TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR THE FA... THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
THEN SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  75  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         97  74  97  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200827
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS... CURRENTLY IN NORTH TEXAS... COULD MOVE
NORTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH
MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UPR
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE FA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP... THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER... RIGHT NOW EXPECT RAIN TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR THE FA... THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
THEN SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         99  74  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           98  75  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         97  74  97  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT BECAME MORE
APPARENT THAT INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE FACTORS OVER THE GREAT MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE FURTHER REDUCED THOSE CHANCES WITH THIS
LATEST UPDATE...LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO MENTION OF RAIN
IN TEXT FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. AGAIN...A STRAY
STORM OR TWO IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...AS 850MB TEMPS
CREEP UP...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US RATHER HOT AND MUGGY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAINTAIN SUMMER RIDGING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  75  97 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           71  99  75  99 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT BECAME MORE
APPARENT THAT INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE FACTORS OVER THE GREAT MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE FURTHER REDUCED THOSE CHANCES WITH THIS
LATEST UPDATE...LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO MENTION OF RAIN
IN TEXT FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. AGAIN...A STRAY
STORM OR TWO IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...AS 850MB TEMPS
CREEP UP...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US RATHER HOT AND MUGGY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAINTAIN SUMMER RIDGING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  75  97 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           71  99  75  99 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200232
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT BECAME MORE
APPARENT THAT INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE FACTORS OVER THE GREAT MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE FURTHER REDUCED THOSE CHANCES WITH THIS
LATEST UPDATE...LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO MENTION OF RAIN
IN TEXT FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. AGAIN...A STRAY
STORM OR TWO IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...AS 850MB TEMPS
CREEP UP...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US RATHER HOT AND MUGGY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAINTAIN SUMMER RIDGING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  75  97 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 100 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           71  99  75  99 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. AGAIN...A STRAY
STORM OR TWO IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...AS 850MB TEMPS
CREEP UP...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US RATHER HOT AND MUGGY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAINTAIN SUMMER RIDGING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  75  97 /  20   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72 100  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 100 /  30   0  10  10
GAGE OK           71  99  75  99 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. AGAIN...A STRAY
STORM OR TWO IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...AS 850MB TEMPS
CREEP UP...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US RATHER HOT AND MUGGY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAINTAIN SUMMER RIDGING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  75  97 /  20   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72 100  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 100 /  30   0  10  10
GAGE OK           71  99  75  99 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. AGAIN...A STRAY
STORM OR TWO IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...AS 850MB TEMPS
CREEP UP...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US RATHER HOT AND MUGGY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAINTAIN SUMMER RIDGING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  75  97 /  20   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72 100  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 100 /  30   0  10  10
GAGE OK           71  99  75  99 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191944
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. AGAIN...A STRAY
STORM OR TWO IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...AS 850MB TEMPS
CREEP UP...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US RATHER HOT AND MUGGY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAINTAIN SUMMER RIDGING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  96  75  97 /  20   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72 100  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 101  76 100 /  30   0  10  10
GAGE OK           71  99  75  99 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 03Z. STORM CHANCES WILL
BE GREATER AT KSPS...WHERE TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED.
ELSEWHERE...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WED
MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KSPS WITH CHANCES
TOO LOW AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR MENTION ATTM. STRONG VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  97  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         73  98  73 100 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 100 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           72  96  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         74  96  74  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 03Z. STORM CHANCES WILL
BE GREATER AT KSPS...WHERE TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED.
ELSEWHERE...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WED
MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KSPS WITH CHANCES
TOO LOW AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR MENTION ATTM. STRONG VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  97  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         73  98  73 100 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 100 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           72  96  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         74  96  74  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191105
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WED
MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KSPS WITH CHANCES
TOO LOW AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR MENTION ATTM. STRONG VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         95  73  98  73 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75 100  75 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           96  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         95  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191105
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WED
MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KSPS WITH CHANCES
TOO LOW AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR MENTION ATTM. STRONG VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         95  73  98  73 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75 100  75 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           96  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         95  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190902
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         95  73  98  73 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75 100  75 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           96  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         95  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190902
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         95  73  98  73 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75 100  75 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           96  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         95  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAFS...
A FEW STORMS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA COUNTY MAY MOVE ACROSS
OKC AND PERHAPS OUN BETWEEN 6-8Z. OTHERWISE...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PRODUCE VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...HOWEVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL CLUSTER
OF STRONG STORMS...SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO OKC AROUND 00Z.

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS DECREASE DURING THE LAST HOUR AND
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH OKC. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR WWR/GAG SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IF STORMS WILL IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DECAYING
STORMS...THINGS HAVE REALLY HEATED UP. TRIPLE DIGITS WERE COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. RECENTLY...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 OR 50
MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE
MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S BENEATH BROAD RIDGING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS...MAKE SURE YOU DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. OTHERWISE...STAY INSIDE IF YOU CAN! GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE SFC BOUNDARIES...WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
TO SEVERAL UPPER WAVES/FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE WAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  50  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  72  97 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  97 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL CLUSTER
OF STRONG STORMS...SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO OKC AROUND 00Z.

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS DECREASE DURING THE LAST HOUR AND
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH OKC. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR WWR/GAG SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IF STORMS WILL IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DECAYING
STORMS...THINGS HAVE REALLY HEATED UP. TRIPLE DIGITS WERE COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. RECENTLY...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 OR 50
MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE
MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S BENEATH BROAD RIDGING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS...MAKE SURE YOU DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. OTHERWISE...STAY INSIDE IF YOU CAN! GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE SFC BOUNDARIES...WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
TO SEVERAL UPPER WAVES/FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE WAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  74 101 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  97 /  40  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  97  74  96 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL CLUSTER
OF STRONG STORMS...SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO OKC AROUND 00Z.

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS DECREASE DURING THE LAST HOUR AND
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH OKC. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR WWR/GAG SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IF STORMS WILL IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DECAYING
STORMS...THINGS HAVE REALLY HEATED UP. TRIPLE DIGITS WERE COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. RECENTLY...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 OR 50
MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE
MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S BENEATH BROAD RIDGING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS...MAKE SURE YOU DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. OTHERWISE...STAY INSIDE IF YOU CAN! GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE SFC BOUNDARIES...WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
TO SEVERAL UPPER WAVES/FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE WAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  74 101 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  97 /  40  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  97  74  96 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182019
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DECAYING
STORMS...THINGS HAVE REALLY HEATED UP. TRIPLE DIGITS WERE COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. RECENTLY...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 OR 50
MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE
MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S BENEATH BROAD RIDGING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS...MAKE SURE YOU DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. OTHERWISE...STAY INSIDE IF YOU CAN! GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE SFC BOUNDARIES...WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
TO SEVERAL UPPER WAVES/FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE WAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  74 101 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  97  74  96 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182019
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DECAYING
STORMS...THINGS HAVE REALLY HEATED UP. TRIPLE DIGITS WERE COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. RECENTLY...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 OR 50
MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE
MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S BENEATH BROAD RIDGING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS...MAKE SURE YOU DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. OTHERWISE...STAY INSIDE IF YOU CAN! GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE SFC BOUNDARIES...WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
TO SEVERAL UPPER WAVES/FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE WAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  74 101 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  97  74  96 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
KGAG-KCSM-KLAW-KDFW BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

DID NOT MENTION SHRA/TSRA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND LOW CHANCES OF
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TAF SITE.

WINDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KSPS...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES
OF THE DAY.

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST MAINLY TO DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST OF A HOBART TO
WAURIKA LINE. LATEST MODEL PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATING ONGOING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS IS RATHER
POOR. THUS...HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST AND
LEANED ON CONCEPTUAL MODELS/EXPERIENCE.

SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR GUTHRIE AND PERRY AS OF 4 AM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EAST SIDE OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS CLUSTER HAS
NOT WEAKENED AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT COULD REACH THE RED
RIVER NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 BY 8 AM...THOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
CLUSTER COULD DISSIPATE. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH THIS
CLUSTER. THESE STORMS WERE GENERATED IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BRINGING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGERED NEAR A MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...PERHAPS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. KEPT RAIN CHANCES LOW
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY TRICKY. LATEST MAV/METMOS NUMBERS
ARE PROBABLY WAY TOO HIGH OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NOT
ACCOUNTING FOR LOW LEVEL COOL AIR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT...
THUS WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THEM...ESPECIALLY WITH MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DID NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S. TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE MOST SUN IS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AS A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY OCCUR COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND TRYING TO PUSH
SOUTH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS ON THESE DAYS...BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION...BELOW 15 PERCENT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         72  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  75 101 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           70  99  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT. A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
KGAG-KCSM-KLAW-KDFW BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

DID NOT MENTION SHRA/TSRA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND LOW CHANCES OF
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TAF SITE.

WINDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KSPS...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES
OF THE DAY.

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST MAINLY TO DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST OF A HOBART TO
WAURIKA LINE. LATEST MODEL PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATING ONGOING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS IS RATHER
POOR. THUS...HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TODAY/S FORECAST AND
LEANED ON CONCEPTUAL MODELS/EXPERIENCE.

SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR GUTHRIE AND PERRY AS OF 4 AM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EAST SIDE OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS CLUSTER HAS
NOT WEAKENED AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT COULD REACH THE RED
RIVER NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 BY 8 AM...THOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
CLUSTER COULD DISSIPATE. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH THIS
CLUSTER. THESE STORMS WERE GENERATED IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...BRINGING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGERED NEAR A MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...PERHAPS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. KEPT RAIN CHANCES LOW
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY TRICKY. LATEST MAV/METMOS NUMBERS
ARE PROBABLY WAY TOO HIGH OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NOT
ACCOUNTING FOR LOW LEVEL COOL AIR FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT...
THUS WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THEM...ESPECIALLY WITH MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DID NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S. TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE MOST SUN IS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AS A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY OCCUR COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND TRYING TO PUSH
SOUTH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS ON THESE DAYS...BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION...BELOW 15 PERCENT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         72  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  75 101 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           70  99  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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