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000
FXUS64 KOUN 101124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 101124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 101124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 101016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

03/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 100453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 100453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 100453
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 100319 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
919 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA. LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED SURFACE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED THE WATCH THINKING THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO SHALLOW
WITH VERTICAL MIXING...TOO COOL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
TOO MOIST NEAR THE GROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE MARGINAL...GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH...AND RH 15-25
PERCENT...THINK HIGH FUEL LOADING FROM LAST YEAR/S RECORD RAINFALL
AND FAIRLY HIGH FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM12/GFS20 FAVORED THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...AND
SHAWNEE AT 3 PM ON WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CURRENTLY
FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TOO COOL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE
WARM SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD EXCEED 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ011>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 092305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 092305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 092305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 092054
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST... WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT AND REFRAIN FROM ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING... INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... OR FRONT IF YOU WILL... SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS PLAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WAA... INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGHS... TYPICALLY TOPPING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AS WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA...SUSTAINED 20 MPH
OR HIGHER. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE FRONT... NORTH SFC WINDS
WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. A SKOSH WARMER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WAA WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR SOME. MOVING INTO SATURDAY... EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE E/SE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS.

SUNDAY... AS A DECENT H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS E/SE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS...AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A
NARROW WINDOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... RIDGING WILL SET UP SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... WITH MILD TEMPS
PERSISTING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  72  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  72  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  77  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  77  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  66  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  67  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 091744 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT... A NARROW SWATH OF SCT TO
OVC CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... IMPACTING KPNC AND
SURROUNDING AERODROMES. MODEST N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING AND SHIFTING TO THE NE/E
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 091621
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING FOR BREEZY AND
MILD MID-WINTER DAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
60 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 091115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER...A BRISK NW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE ONCE VERTICAL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE
MORNING. TOWARD SUNSET...THE MIXING WILL AGAIN DIMINISH...AS WILL
THE SURFACE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GREATLY DIMINISHES...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZE DURING THE DAY. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS WORTHY OF A HEADLINE...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WILL BE ABRUPTLY WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP IT DRY...AND AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE WILL BE ABOVE-AVERAGE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

THE BACK-AND-FORTH TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH
THURSDAY TURNING COOLER...FRIDAY WARMER...AND SATURDAY
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...AS THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
CLIPS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODEL TIMING IS NOT YET VERY WELL COORDINATED.
THIS...PLUS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...RESULTS IN LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 091027
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GREATLY DIMINISHES...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZE DURING THE DAY. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS WORTHY OF A HEADLINE...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WILL BE ABRUPTLY WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP IT DRY...AND AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE WILL BE ABOVE-AVERAGE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

THE BACK-AND-FORTH TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH
THURSDAY TURNING COOLER...FRIDAY WARMER...AND SATURDAY
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...AS THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
CLIPS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODEL TIMING IS NOT YET VERY WELL COORDINATED.
THIS...PLUS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...RESULTS IN LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 090511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SOME IN THE MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOWER MINS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE LOW TEMPS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN.

WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE 9-10AM TIMEFRAME TOMORROW WILL BE
GUSTY...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 MPH RANGE...FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MID-LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND BECOME DUE NORTH. WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE A
BIT ELEVATED TUESDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH...MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 090337 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOWER MINS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE LOW TEMPS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN.

WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE 9-10AM TIMEFRAME TOMORROW WILL BE
GUSTY...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 MPH RANGE...FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MID-LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND BECOME DUE NORTH. WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE A
BIT ELEVATED TUESDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH...MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 090337 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOWER MINS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE LOW TEMPS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN.

WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE 9-10AM TIMEFRAME TOMORROW WILL BE
GUSTY...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 MPH RANGE...FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MID-LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND BECOME DUE NORTH. WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE A
BIT ELEVATED TUESDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH...MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 082325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 082325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 082325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  64  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  65  25  72 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  49  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 082040 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 082040 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 082040 CCA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 082034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.

CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 7 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 081705 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...08/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGEST IMPACT TO
AVIATION TODAY WILL BE WINDS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RELAX...BUT REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. THIS PUTS MINIMUM RH IN THE 14 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. THE AREA COVERED BY
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 081640
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. THIS PUTS MINIMUM RH IN THE 14 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. THE AREA COVERED BY
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 081640
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. THIS PUTS MINIMUM RH IN THE 14 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. THE AREA COVERED BY
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/26





000
FXUS64 KOUN 081640
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. THIS PUTS MINIMUM RH IN THE 14 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. THE AREA COVERED BY
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  60  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  57  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

09/26





000
FXUS64 KOUN 081111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY EXCEED 40 MPH AT OKC/OUN AROUND
18-21Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER NW/W OK AND SPREAD S/SE. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 081111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY EXCEED 40 MPH AT OKC/OUN AROUND
18-21Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER NW/W OK AND SPREAD S/SE. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 081111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY EXCEED 40 MPH AT OKC/OUN AROUND
18-21Z. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER NW/W OK AND SPREAD S/SE. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 080946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 080523
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
08/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON AFTER
15Z...SUBSIDING QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  31  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         32  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           28  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 080328 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER PARTS OF THE FA OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE BREEZY N TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY. WITH THE BREEZY WINDS AND
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASE LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BIT THINKING
THESE THINGS WILL SLOW DOWN THE DECREASING TEMPS. ALSO ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY GUST 35
TO 40 KTS MOST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  31  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         32  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           28  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 072339 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY GUST 35
TO 40 KTS MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 072339 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY GUST 35
TO 40 KTS MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 072018
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE MILD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOWER-
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SOMETIME FROM
MID-DAY TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO
ELEVATE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING SEVERAL DRY AND MILD FRONTS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN DRIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK AND
LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER WEATHER AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         30  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  50  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  46  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  51  31  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

26/09





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