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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280624
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/30/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280624
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/30/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 280257
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
857 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE
FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE... THIS TURKEY DAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE A
GOOD ONE... UNDER SUNNY SKIES... HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF OK TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR 60 ACROSS TEXOMA AND WRN N
TX. WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLIDE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING... S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN OK THROUGH AM FRI. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS STILL EXPECTED... AS THE H500 RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BROADEN FRI... WITH LL WINDS PERSISTING OUT OF THE S/SW THRU SUN.
HIGHS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S FRI... WITH SAT THE WARMEST...
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. LOCATIONS ACROSS WRN N TX MAY
APPROACH THE UPPER 70S.

WITH WARMER TEMPS... BREEZY S/SW WINDS... RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND
20S... AND A HISTORY OF MINOR GRASS FIRES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTN-SUN. PLEASE BE TAKE
CARE IF BURNING AND DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES PROPERLY. FROM ACTIVITY
NOTED TODAY... MULTIPLE HOT SPOTS ON IR... FUELS APPEAR TO BE PRIMED.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SUN... A HEFTY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE... AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BRIEFLY
HIT THE 70S ACROSS TEXOMA TO 60S ACROSS CENTRAL OK... WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NRN OK. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S ACROSS NRN OK TO THE 40S
ACROSS TEXOMA MON AM.

BEYOND MONDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO OUT OF PHASE
QUICKLY... WITH STARK CONTRASTS... PRIMARILY STARTING WED... BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. ADDING TO THE ISSUE... RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM EACH HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS. THE MAIN ISSUE APPEARS TO BE EACH
SOLUTIONS HANDLING OF THE H500 PAC SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
CUT IT OFF OVER THE PAC... HALTING ITS PROGRESS... DEVELOPING A
BRIEF REX BLOCK FROM SRN ALASKA SOUTH ON TUE... WITH SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN FOR THIS SOLUTION. IN RESPONSE... THIS SLOWS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
FOLDS IT INTO THE GREATER SYNOPTIC FLOW... PULLING IT ACROSS THE
PACNW THRU WED EVE/THU AM. EVEN WITH SUCH VARIABILITY... FEEL
RELATIVELY CONFIDENT IN KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE GFS RETURNS NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE AND THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A
SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE REGION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  63  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         37  64  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  68  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  71  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  62  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  64  51  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272048
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE... THIS TURKEY DAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE A
GOOD ONE... UNDER SUNNY SKIES... HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF OK TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR 60 ACROSS TEXOMA AND WRN N
TX. WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLIDE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING... S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN OK THROUGH AM FRI. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS STILL EXPECTED... AS THE H500 RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BROADEN FRI... WITH LL WINDS PERSISTING OUT OF THE S/SW THRU SUN.
HIGHS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S FRI... WITH SAT THE WARMEST...
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. LOCATIONS ACROSS WRN N TX MAY
APPROACH THE UPPER 70S.

WITH WARMER TEMPS... BREEZY S/SW WINDS... RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND
20S... AND A HISTORY OF MINOR GRASS FIRES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTN-SUN. PLEASE BE TAKE
CARE IF BURNING AND DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES PROPERLY. FROM ACTIVITY
NOTED TODAY... MULTIPLE HOT SPOTS ON IR... FUELS APPEAR TO BE PRIMED.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SUN... A HEFTY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE... AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BRIEFLY
HIT THE 70S ACROSS TEXOMA TO 60S ACROSS CENTRAL OK... WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NRN OK. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S ACROSS NRN OK TO THE 40S
ACROSS TEXOMA MON AM.

BEYOND MONDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO OUT OF PHASE
QUICKLY... WITH STARK CONTRASTS... PRIMARILY STARTING WED... BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. ADDING TO THE ISSUE... RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM EACH HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS. THE MAIN ISSUE APPEARS TO BE EACH
SOLUTIONS HANDLING OF THE H500 PAC SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
CUT IT OFF OVER THE PAC... HALTING ITS PROGRESS... DEVELOPING A
BRIEF REX BLOCK FROM SRN ALASKA SOUTH ON TUE... WITH SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN FOR THIS SOLUTION. IN RESPONSE... THIS SLOWS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
FOLDS IT INTO THE GREATER SYNOPTIC FLOW... PULLING IT ACROSS THE
PACNW THRU WED EVE/THU AM. EVEN WITH SUCH VARIABILITY... FEEL
RELATIVELY CONFIDENT IN KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE GFS RETURNS NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE AND THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A
SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE REGION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  63  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  39  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  64  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272048
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE... THIS TURKEY DAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE A
GOOD ONE... UNDER SUNNY SKIES... HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF OK TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR 60 ACROSS TEXOMA AND WRN N
TX. WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLIDE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING... S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN OK THROUGH AM FRI. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS STILL EXPECTED... AS THE H500 RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BROADEN FRI... WITH LL WINDS PERSISTING OUT OF THE S/SW THRU SUN.
HIGHS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S FRI... WITH SAT THE WARMEST...
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. LOCATIONS ACROSS WRN N TX MAY
APPROACH THE UPPER 70S.

WITH WARMER TEMPS... BREEZY S/SW WINDS... RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND
20S... AND A HISTORY OF MINOR GRASS FIRES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTN-SUN. PLEASE BE TAKE
CARE IF BURNING AND DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES PROPERLY. FROM ACTIVITY
NOTED TODAY... MULTIPLE HOT SPOTS ON IR... FUELS APPEAR TO BE PRIMED.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SUN... A HEFTY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE... AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BRIEFLY
HIT THE 70S ACROSS TEXOMA TO 60S ACROSS CENTRAL OK... WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NRN OK. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S ACROSS NRN OK TO THE 40S
ACROSS TEXOMA MON AM.

BEYOND MONDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO OUT OF PHASE
QUICKLY... WITH STARK CONTRASTS... PRIMARILY STARTING WED... BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. ADDING TO THE ISSUE... RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM EACH HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS. THE MAIN ISSUE APPEARS TO BE EACH
SOLUTIONS HANDLING OF THE H500 PAC SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
CUT IT OFF OVER THE PAC... HALTING ITS PROGRESS... DEVELOPING A
BRIEF REX BLOCK FROM SRN ALASKA SOUTH ON TUE... WITH SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN FOR THIS SOLUTION. IN RESPONSE... THIS SLOWS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
FOLDS IT INTO THE GREATER SYNOPTIC FLOW... PULLING IT ACROSS THE
PACNW THRU WED EVE/THU AM. EVEN WITH SUCH VARIABILITY... FEEL
RELATIVELY CONFIDENT IN KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE GFS RETURNS NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE AND THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A
SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE REGION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  63  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  39  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  64  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271708
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY IN NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS SINCE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AFTER MONDAY BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY CHANGED THINKING FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN THEY HAD A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER
ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE
THIS IS A BIG CHANGE IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T BITE OFF
ON IT YET AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO... SO HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/04/14





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271708
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY IN NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS SINCE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AFTER MONDAY BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY CHANGED THINKING FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN THEY HAD A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER
ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE
THIS IS A BIG CHANGE IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T BITE OFF
ON IT YET AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO... SO HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/04/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271109
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
509 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY IN NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS SINCE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AFTER MONDAY BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY CHANGED THINKING FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN THEY HAD A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER
ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE
THIS IS A BIG CHANGE IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T BITE OFF
ON IT YET AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO... SO HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271109
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
509 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY IN NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS SINCE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AFTER MONDAY BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY CHANGED THINKING FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN THEY HAD A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER
ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE
THIS IS A BIG CHANGE IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T BITE OFF
ON IT YET AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO... SO HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270943
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY IN NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS SINCE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AFTER MONDAY BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY CHANGED THINKING FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN THEY HAD A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER
ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE
THIS IS A BIG CHANGE IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T BITE OFF
ON IT YET AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO... SO HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270943
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BECOME A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY IN NW OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS SINCE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE TIMING OF SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASSES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AFTER MONDAY BUT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COMPLETELY CHANGED THINKING FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN THEY HAD A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER
ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TUES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE
THIS IS A BIG CHANGE IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WON`T BITE OFF
ON IT YET AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO... SO HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  38  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         55  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  38  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  37  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  37  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270004
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270004
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261709 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON... CALMING AND BECOMING MORE
N/NERLY OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD... REMAINING CALM... WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/04/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261709 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON... CALMING AND BECOMING MORE
N/NERLY OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD... REMAINING CALM... WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/04/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261124
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260934
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER/SRINKLES IS/ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PNC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260541
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A
BRIEF RAIN SHOWER/SRINKLES IS/ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PNC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         33  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 252349
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 252023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRI/SAT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
DO LITTLE MORE THAN PROMOTE INCREASED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
ACT TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS THEN POINT TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...AND A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         34  57  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  61  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           31  54  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  60  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251736
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 250939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE... NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE... SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT... THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARDS MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. WHENEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  36  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         54  33  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  36  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           54  31  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  36  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         57  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





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