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000
FXUS64 KOUN 181120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  87  70 /  30  10  10  20
HOBART OK         92  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         90  70  88  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  87  70 /  30  10  10  20
HOBART OK         92  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         90  70  88  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  69  88  69 /  30  10  10  20
HOBART OK         91  69  88  69 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  89  71 /  30  20  20  20
GAGE OK           90  66  87  67 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     89  69  89  70 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         89  69  88  70 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180500
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT KLAW AND KSPS FROM 08Z THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AT KPNC. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY ONE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180236
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180236
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS MAINLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF W TX. LATER HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
ACTIVITY MOVING FROM KS INTO NRN OK OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LINGERING IN ERN OK AND SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAVE LOW POPS MAINLY E OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 172042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 172042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67





000
FXUS64 KOUN 171749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED -TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KSPS, SO WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
THAT TERMINAL IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  66 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/03/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 171159
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT FOG PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  86 /  10  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  69  88 /  20  30  10  40
GAGE OK           65  90  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  69  87 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170855
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  67 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  68 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170855
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ODILE WILL BE MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWO AREAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS GRANT/KAY COUNTIES. BETTER WAA AND FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA TODAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE CLOSER TO BETTER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RAISED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY AS GFS/EC ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING REMNANTS NEAR TEXAS/OK
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EC IS SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND...MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         90  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           91  65  90  67 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  89  69 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         89  70  88  68 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 170435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AS WINDS
GO LIGHT TO CALM. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AS WINDS
GO LIGHT TO CALM. FROM 15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 162329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 15Z
TIMEFRAME...AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. SOME BKN MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
REDEVELOP AT KPNC...NORTH OF THE LINGERING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BECOMING GUSTY BY 15Z TO 16Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 162107
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 162107
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE N 1/2 OF OK WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE ENTIRE
REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 2200Z. A NEW LAYER AROUND 5000 FT IS
LIKELY TO FORM AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOWER LAYERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FROM I-44/I-35
EAST. EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161725
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED TEMP GRIDS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG I-40 FOR WHERE
MORNING CLOUDINESS IS STARTING TO BREAK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

67/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161511 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         87  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161511 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         87  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 160905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         86  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     80  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 160446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. WHAT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR. SO FAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO BUILD INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM 09Z TO 14Z AT NEARLY
ALL TERMINALS. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...GREATER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUP OF ISOLD
TSRA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 18Z...WITH
LOW CIGS GRADUALLY CLEARING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 160446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. WHAT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR. SO FAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO BUILD INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM 09Z TO 14Z AT NEARLY
ALL TERMINALS. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...GREATER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUP OF ISOLD
TSRA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 18Z...WITH
LOW CIGS GRADUALLY CLEARING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160151
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160151
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 152338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 152338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...FIRST FROM
KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC...THEN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SPORADIC SHRA MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM 15Z TO
20Z TUES...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KSPS...WHERE PROB30 WILL BE
MAINTAINED. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
CLEAR BY 18Z TO 20Z MOST TERMINALS WITH VFR AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 152015
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 152015
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS...SATELLITE...AND
RADAR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...AND
A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  40  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  30  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 151737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. VERY LOW CLOUDS/LOW VSBYS IN KS ARE UNLIKELY TO MOVE INTO
OK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS
MUCH OF OK/N TX OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABILITIES OF RAIN/STORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN TAF SITE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TAFS...UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AT KLAW AND KSPS AS THE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED RAIN
CHANCES AND OTHER ELEMENTS AS WELL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM NEAR
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR PAULS VALLEY...ARDMORE...ADA...AND ATOKA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BRING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...NEAR A LIBERAL TO TOPEKA
LINE AS OF 11 AM. THIS WILL ENTER HARPER COUNTY BY 1 PM...THEN
GET INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH LATEST HRRR
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT 2 TO 4 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR A WOODWARD TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE
GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 2 PM AS WELL. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO THE LACK
OF STRONG FORCING.

MORNING SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERN WINDS HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           87  59  83  64 /  30  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 151737
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. VERY LOW CLOUDS/LOW VSBYS IN KS ARE UNLIKELY TO MOVE INTO
OK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS
MUCH OF OK/N TX OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABILITIES OF RAIN/STORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN TAF SITE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TAFS...UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AT KLAW AND KSPS AS THE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED RAIN
CHANCES AND OTHER ELEMENTS AS WELL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM NEAR
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR PAULS VALLEY...ARDMORE...ADA...AND ATOKA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BRING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...NEAR A LIBERAL TO TOPEKA
LINE AS OF 11 AM. THIS WILL ENTER HARPER COUNTY BY 1 PM...THEN
GET INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH LATEST HRRR
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT 2 TO 4 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR A WOODWARD TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE
GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 2 PM AS WELL. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO THE LACK
OF STRONG FORCING.

MORNING SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERN WINDS HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           87  59  83  64 /  30  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 151605 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED RAIN
CHANCES AND OTHER ELEMENTS AS WELL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM NEAR
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR PAULS VALLEY...ARDMORE...ADA...AND ATOKA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BRING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...NEAR A LIBERAL TO TOPEKA
LINE AS OF 11 AM. THIS WILL ENTER HARPER COUNTY BY 1 PM...THEN
GET INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH LATEST HRRR
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT 2 TO 4 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR A WOODWARD TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE
GREATEST HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 2 PM AS WELL. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DUE TO THE LACK
OF STRONG FORCING.

MORNING SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERN WINDS HAVE BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
15/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
03-05Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
16-18Z TODAY. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND WITH BREVITY...WILL
JUST MENTION VCSH IN INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  20  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  20  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  20  50  40  10
GAGE OK           87  59  83  64 /  30  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





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