Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOUN 312026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP & HRRR RUNS KEEP IT INACTIVE THERE, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION,
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW TSRA POPS THERE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US DRY AND MAINTAINING SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL BE KEEPING ANY POPS OUT OF THERE, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT A PACIFIC BASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEAR THE TIME PERIOD, IT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT LOW TSRA POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         70  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  94  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 312026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP & HRRR RUNS KEEP IT INACTIVE THERE, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION,
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW TSRA POPS THERE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US DRY AND MAINTAINING SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL BE KEEPING ANY POPS OUT OF THERE, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT A PACIFIC BASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEAR THE TIME PERIOD, IT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT LOW TSRA POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         70  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  94  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/67/67





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311404 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG MENTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALMOST ALL FOG...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH NORTH OF ALVA BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS DISSIPATED. THINK THIS
PATCH WILL BE GONE BY 10 AM. THUS...REMOVED FOG MENTION.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311149 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR WILL BE INCLUDED IN KPNC TERMINALS FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 310829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AROUND ENID...ALVA...AND PONCA CITY BUT DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT DURATION/COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MAY NOT BE AS
ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY WITH ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPS MOST AREAS AND DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL INTRUSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  68  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 310540 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
31/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MENTION MVFR BR AT KPNC THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310227 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310227 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP POP/WX FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS IN
THE SE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301920
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR WAURIKA TO
COALGATE. CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG...HOWEVER A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WOULD BE SLOW
MOVERS...PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS PERHAPS UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NEAR ALVA...
ENID...AND CHEROKEE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. DOUBT FOG WILL BE TOO DENSE
OR WIDESPREAD SINCE NO RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER WITH INCREASING SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORM IN SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO ADA LINE WHERE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND CAPPING IS A BIT
WEAKER...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         65  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           62  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 10 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING.

PATCHES OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR 07-15Z
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         67  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           63  96  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE THIS MORNING IS MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND
MORNING THUNDER. FOG HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE OBSERVATION SITES. IF
THERE IS SOME LINGERING FOG OVER ALFALFA/GRANT COUNTIES... DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN LONG AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
TO THE SOUTH... ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IS DRIFTING ACROSS BRYAN
COUNTY... BUT OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
REDUCE POPS TO LESS THAN 20. STILL SOME MIXED SIGNALS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE
LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. WILL ALSO MENTION MVFR FOG OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS OF KOKC/KOUN FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO GOING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAREST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FOG BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODELS...WRF AND HRRR KEEP A MAJORITY OF DENSE FOG UP
IN KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT BUT WE WILL WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AS NEEDED. POPS WERE ALSO
CONTINUED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.

TODAYS TEMPS WERE COOLED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.
INITIALIZATIONS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THIS
SOUNDS REASONABLE. GFS AND ECM HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERFORECAST STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK MOST AREAS AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK STORM
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS
REMNANTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           91  63  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     88  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 300212 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
912 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONT FOR SE PARTS OF THE FA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND ADDED
POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND AFTER 6Z PERIOD. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES OUT
SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 292010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 292010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A QUANAH
TEXAS TO WAURIKA TO ATOKA LINE. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...
THOUGH THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AS
CAPPING IS RATHER STRONG.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALVA TO WAURIKA LINE...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  91  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  95  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  98  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           57  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  89  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KPNC THROUGH
22Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF KAVK-KLAW 07-14Z. KPNC HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE
WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DID NOT
MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  95  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  99 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           62  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291613
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.


A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 291138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN MAINLY AROUND KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290854
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELK CITY TO PONCA CITY AT
THIS TYPING. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THEN MIX BACK NORTH OF REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THIS EVENING...FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP FREE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ECM HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...KEEPING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IF THERE IS SOME RETROGRADING WE COULD SEE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS EAST OF I-35 MID TO LATE
WEEK. WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE...WE WILL STAY WITH THE
BLENDED INITIALIZATIONS AND KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         93  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  98  72 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
29/06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ISOLATED RA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP NEAR KOKC/KOUN AND KLAW/KSPS FIRST FEW HOURS OF
FORECAST BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
ONLY MENTION IN KSPS TERMINAL DUE TO CURRENT AND EXTRAPOLATED
RADAR TRENDS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY YIELDING LIGHT NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 282311
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES... BUT OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
SPS WILL NOT MENTION. WEAK FRONT THAT CONT TO LINGER IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12KTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities