Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOUN 012246
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH BY AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS IN NORTHWEST OK
APPROACHING 20KTS. A FEW AFTN CU... OTHERWISE CONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IS ANOTHER
CONCERN.

COLDER AIR HAS ARRIVED TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 30S AND 40S WITH WILL CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 30S.

WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW AS IT IS IN FINE SHAPE.
THINK SEVERAL GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH WITH PERHAPS A FEW TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. A FEW GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OKLAHOMA.

TONIGHT...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS...
FAVORING THE COLDER NUMBERS FROM THE TEENS TO THE MID 20S. WINDS
MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT BY SUNRISE WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL VERY RAPIDLY.

MONDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE MORNING WILL BE LOW SIDE...SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN
TODAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON
TUESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SUPPORT
GOOD HEATING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BASED ON LATEST MODELS. WENT WITH THE FASTER AND COLDER 12Z
GFS/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT AND COULD POSE SOME HAZARD
TO TRAVEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE
TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...A BIG WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY BE MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN PLACES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...THOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  17  41  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         17  43  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  21  45  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           12  47  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     11  38  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         24  43  29  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 012026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IS ANOTHER
CONCERN.

COLDER AIR HAS ARRIVED TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 30S AND 40S WITH WILL CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 30S.

WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW AS IT IS IN FINE SHAPE.
THINK SEVERAL GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH WITH PERHAPS A FEW TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. A FEW GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OKLAHOMA.

TONIGHT...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS...
FAVORING THE COLDER NUMBERS FROM THE TEENS TO THE MID 20S. WINDS
MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT BY SUNRISE WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL VERY RAPIDLY.

MONDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE MORNING WILL BE LOW SIDE...SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN
TODAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON
TUESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SUPPORT
GOOD HEATING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BASED ON LATEST MODELS. WENT WITH THE FASTER AND COLDER 12Z
GFS/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT AND COULD POSE SOME HAZARD
TO TRAVEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE
TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...A BIG WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY BE MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN PLACES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...THOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  17  41  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         17  43  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  21  45  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           12  47  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     11  38  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         24  43  29  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THROUGH 00Z.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 23Z. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 23-12Z...BUT NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY
THEY WILL DECREASE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AT ALL SITES
12-18Z.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN PATCHES...EXCEPT NEAR KPNC. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND STRONG FRONT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OVER MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY TO POST FRONTAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIP. CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO FOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UP AROUND MEDFORD-PONCA CITY
AREAS BUT WE ARE LEAVING FORECAST ALL RAIN.

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH MIXING AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MANY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TYPE. GFS AND
GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE S/WV AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FROM
RUN TO RUN WILL ALLOW FOR US TO KEEP POPS GOING AND EVEN ALLOW THE
INCREASE INITIALIZED FROM CONSENSUS BLENDS. TYPE OF PRECIP APPEARS
PROBLEMATIC WITH A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY SUGGESTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. GREATEST IMPACTS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-40.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM COMES
TOGETHER LIKE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST...TIMING AND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF MODEL
TRENDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 011735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THROUGH 00Z.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 23Z. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 23-12Z...BUT NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY
THEY WILL DECREASE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AT ALL SITES
12-18Z.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN PATCHES...EXCEPT NEAR KPNC. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND STRONG FRONT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OVER MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY TO POST FRONTAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIP. CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO FOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UP AROUND MEDFORD-PONCA CITY
AREAS BUT WE ARE LEAVING FORECAST ALL RAIN.

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH MIXING AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MANY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TYPE. GFS AND
GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE S/WV AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FROM
RUN TO RUN WILL ALLOW FOR US TO KEEP POPS GOING AND EVEN ALLOW THE
INCREASE INITIALIZED FROM CONSENSUS BLENDS. TYPE OF PRECIP APPEARS
PROBLEMATIC WITH A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY SUGGESTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. GREATEST IMPACTS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-40.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM COMES
TOGETHER LIKE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST...TIMING AND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF MODEL
TRENDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 011146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
546 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
01/12Z TAFS...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KSPS TO START FORECAST. MVFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 16-18Z MOST TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MVFR
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO AFTERNOON AT KPNC. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS BY 22-24Z. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
00Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND STRONG FRONT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OVER MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY TO POST FRONTAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIP. CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO FOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UP AROUND MEDFORD-PONCA CITY
AREAS BUT WE ARE LEAVING FORECAST ALL RAIN.

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH MIXING AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MANY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TYPE. GFS AND
GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE S/WV AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FROM
RUN TO RUN WILL ALLOW FOR US TO KEEP POPS GOING AND EVEN ALLOW THE
INCREASE INITIALIZED FROM CONSENSUS BLENDS. TYPE OF PRECIP APPEARS
PROBLEMATIC WITH A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY SUGGESTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. GREATEST IMPACTS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-40.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM COMES
TOGETHER LIKE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST...TIMING AND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF MODEL
TRENDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  19  40  28 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  20  42  29 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  24  44  31 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           38  17  46  26 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  14  37  26 /  40   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  24  42  29 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 011146 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
546 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
01/12Z TAFS...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KSPS TO START FORECAST. MVFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 16-18Z MOST TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MVFR
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO AFTERNOON AT KPNC. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS BY 22-24Z. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
00Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND STRONG FRONT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OVER MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY TO POST FRONTAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIP. CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO FOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UP AROUND MEDFORD-PONCA CITY
AREAS BUT WE ARE LEAVING FORECAST ALL RAIN.

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH MIXING AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MANY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TYPE. GFS AND
GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE S/WV AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FROM
RUN TO RUN WILL ALLOW FOR US TO KEEP POPS GOING AND EVEN ALLOW THE
INCREASE INITIALIZED FROM CONSENSUS BLENDS. TYPE OF PRECIP APPEARS
PROBLEMATIC WITH A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY SUGGESTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. GREATEST IMPACTS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-40.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM COMES
TOGETHER LIKE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST...TIMING AND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF MODEL
TRENDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  19  40  28 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  20  42  29 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  24  44  31 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           38  17  46  26 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  14  37  26 /  40   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  24  42  29 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010951
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
351 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND STRONG FRONT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OVER MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY TO POST FRONTAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIP. CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO FOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UP AROUND MEDFORD-PONCA CITY
AREAS BUT WE ARE LEAVING FORECAST ALL RAIN.

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH MIXING AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MANY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TYPE. GFS AND
GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE S/WV AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FROM
RUN TO RUN WILL ALLOW FOR US TO KEEP POPS GOING AND EVEN ALLOW THE
INCREASE INITIALIZED FROM CONSENSUS BLENDS. TYPE OF PRECIP APPEARS
PROBLEMATIC WITH A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY SUGGESTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. GREATEST IMPACTS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-40.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM COMES
TOGETHER LIKE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST...TIMING AND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF MODEL
TRENDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  19  40  28 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  20  42  29 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  24  44  31 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           38  17  46  26 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  14  37  26 /  40   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  24  42  29 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010951
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
351 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND STRONG FRONT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OVER MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY TO POST FRONTAL WRAP-AROUND PRECIP. CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO FOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UP AROUND MEDFORD-PONCA CITY
AREAS BUT WE ARE LEAVING FORECAST ALL RAIN.

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH MIXING AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MANY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TYPE. GFS AND
GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE S/WV AND GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FROM
RUN TO RUN WILL ALLOW FOR US TO KEEP POPS GOING AND EVEN ALLOW THE
INCREASE INITIALIZED FROM CONSENSUS BLENDS. TYPE OF PRECIP APPEARS
PROBLEMATIC WITH A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY SUGGESTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. GREATEST IMPACTS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-40.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IF THIS SYSTEM COMES
TOGETHER LIKE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST...TIMING AND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF MODEL
TRENDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  19  40  28 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         44  20  42  29 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  24  44  31 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           38  17  46  26 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  14  37  26 /  40   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  24  42  29 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>030-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 010353
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODELS THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

FOG IS DEVELOPING IN A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
TEXAS. THE MOIST ADVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD
TO ADVECTION FOG. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF I-35.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN AND FOG FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT...TO REFLECT THE LATEST EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT SITES THAT ARE NOT IFR TO DROP INTO IFR CAT THIS
EVENING WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN AND SOME VIS
RESRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH. THIS WILL AID IN IMPROVING SFC VISIBILITY AND WILL BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR THAT WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO RISE BACK INTO MVFR CAT
BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  50  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 010353
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODELS THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

FOG IS DEVELOPING IN A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
TEXAS. THE MOIST ADVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD
TO ADVECTION FOG. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF I-35.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN AND FOG FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT...TO REFLECT THE LATEST EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT SITES THAT ARE NOT IFR TO DROP INTO IFR CAT THIS
EVENING WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN AND SOME VIS
RESRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH. THIS WILL AID IN IMPROVING SFC VISIBILITY AND WILL BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR THAT WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO RISE BACK INTO MVFR CAT
BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  50  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010353
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODELS THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

FOG IS DEVELOPING IN A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
TEXAS. THE MOIST ADVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD
TO ADVECTION FOG. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF I-35.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN AND FOG FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT...TO REFLECT THE LATEST EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT SITES THAT ARE NOT IFR TO DROP INTO IFR CAT THIS
EVENING WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN AND SOME VIS
RESRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH. THIS WILL AID IN IMPROVING SFC VISIBILITY AND WILL BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR THAT WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO RISE BACK INTO MVFR CAT
BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  50  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 010353
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODELS THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

FOG IS DEVELOPING IN A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
TEXAS. THE MOIST ADVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD
TO ADVECTION FOG. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE WEST OF I-35.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN AND FOG FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT...TO REFLECT THE LATEST EXPECTED TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT SITES THAT ARE NOT IFR TO DROP INTO IFR CAT THIS
EVENING WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN AND SOME VIS
RESRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH. THIS WILL AID IN IMPROVING SFC VISIBILITY AND WILL BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR THAT WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO RISE BACK INTO MVFR CAT
BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  50  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 312256
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT SITES THAT ARE NOT IFR TO DROP INTO IFR CAT THIS
EVENING WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN AND SOME VIS
RESRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH. THIS WILL AID IN IMPROVING SFC VISIBILITY AND WILL BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR THAT WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO RISE BACK INTO MVFR CAT
BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  40  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 312256
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT SITES THAT ARE NOT IFR TO DROP INTO IFR CAT THIS
EVENING WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN AND SOME VIS
RESRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH. THIS WILL AID IN IMPROVING SFC VISIBILITY AND WILL BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR THAT WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO RISE BACK INTO MVFR CAT
BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  40  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 312039
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  40  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 312039
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE FIRST CONCERNS...
THE POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 230 PM. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 HINTED THAT THE RAIN MAY GET A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 POSSIBLY DUE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOST RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDED FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 1/2 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE LOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO WARM. IF IT OCCURS...LOCATIONS NEAR
ENID AND PONCA CITY MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BREAK UP ANY FOG. THINK IT WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH DURANT BY 11 AM SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTS
MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS WEST OF
I-44...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT
THIS TIME AS NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WET GROUND FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER EAST NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND POSSIBLY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. KEPT LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTED MUCH WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  42  19  41 / 100  20   0   0
HOBART OK         38  44  19  42 /  60  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  51  24  44 /  90  20   0   0
GAGE OK           33  39  15  48 /  40  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  38  13  38 / 100  30   0   0
DURANT OK         44  52  24  43 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z.
BELIEVE ALL SITES WILL BECOME IFR BY 00Z. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AS WELL AFTER 00Z BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

-RA/RA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY TO -RA OR DZ WEST TO EAST 22-06Z. REMOVED -RASN MENTION
AFTER 10Z AT KPNC DUE TO LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AS WELL AS IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THINK THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 07-09Z...THEN THROUGH KSPS AND KOUN BY 14Z.
SOME GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 KT AFTER 12Z.

BELIEVE ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR BETTER BY 18Z SUNDAY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS AREA OF RAIN INCREASES AND MOISTENS LOWER LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERE. RAIN WILL END ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO AVIATION WX
EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311158 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS AREA OF RAIN INCREASES AND MOISTENS LOWER LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERE. RAIN WILL END ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO AVIATION WX
EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 311158 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS AREA OF RAIN INCREASES AND MOISTENS LOWER LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERE. RAIN WILL END ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER AIR. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO AVIATION WX
EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WE
COULD STILL SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST TOWARD AND
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL YIELD
POSSIBILITY FOR A CHANGE OVER OR MIX TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO WE WILL LEAVE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING UP THERE. MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS RAIN SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE
PASSAGE INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS DOWN INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINE INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING...A BRIEF WARMING TREND STILL
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MID-WEEK
SYSTEM COULD HAVE SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IF TREND OF GFS IS REALIZED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
YIELD A RAIN TO SNOW AND RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SCENARIO...WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS WERE RETAINED AND INCREASED A BIT FROM
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. THIS EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE WARM
UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  39  42  20 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         43  39  44  21 / 100  60  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  43  49  24 / 100  80  20   0
GAGE OK           43  35  39  18 /  90  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  38  38  16 / 100  90  30   0
DURANT OK         52  44  52  25 /  60  90  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR CAT OVERNIGHT AND
THEN IFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY STAY IFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY 12Z AND WILL
ALSO CONT WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH HAVE HAD A
COUPLE OF SLEET REPORTS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OK... DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THIS CONT AND CHANCES EARLY ON REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 310445
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR CAT OVERNIGHT AND
THEN IFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY STAY IFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY 12Z AND WILL
ALSO CONT WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH HAVE HAD A
COUPLE OF SLEET REPORTS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OK... DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THIS CONT AND CHANCES EARLY ON REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 310327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 310327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302156
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/10




000
FXUS64 KOUN 302156
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301719
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST
AFTER 03Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

-RA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 03Z AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301719
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
AFTER 03Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST
AFTER 03Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

-RA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 03Z AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301622
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301622
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301144 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 301023
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities