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000
FXUS64 KOUN 041733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT..WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT. SUNNY SKIES,
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  49  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         82  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  51  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  45  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  50  77  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10/10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 041733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT..WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT. SUNNY SKIES,
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  49  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         82  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  51  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  45  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  50  77  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10/10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 041512
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT. SUNNY SKIES,
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  49  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         82  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  51  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  45  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  50  77  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 041112
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
612 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE... WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO AREA
TONIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO NORTHERLY WINDS. SFC HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE... UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. INFLUENCING THE FA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST WHILE THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS RETURNING THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW ALSO SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW AND DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  49  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         82  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  51  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  45  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  50  77  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 040811
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
311 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO NORTHERLY WINDS. SFC HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE... UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. INFLUENCING THE FA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST WHILE THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS RETURNING THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW ALSO SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW AND DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  49  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         82  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  51  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           79  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  45  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         79  50  77  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 040446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
0406/0506 TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
ABOUT 14-15Z. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE
BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 040221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 040221 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AFTER 03Z. SEE SHORT DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE DONE THE SAME, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NOW PRESENT WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS, BUT DID
REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 03Z. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINTS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALL
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  80  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  78  50  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 032334
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0400/0424...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OR MOVE SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE THE
RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE THE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY MIDNIGHT WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THEN...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ITS SLOW SPEED MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ITS ARRIVAL
TIME...BUT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS A GOOD
ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
THE SPC DAY 4 TO 8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PROVIDES A GOOD EXPLANATION
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  79  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  51  81 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  76  45  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         51  78  50  77 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 032334
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0400/0424...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OR MOVE SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE THE
RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE THE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY MIDNIGHT WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THEN...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ITS SLOW SPEED MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ITS ARRIVAL
TIME...BUT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS A GOOD
ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
THE SPC DAY 4 TO 8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PROVIDES A GOOD EXPLANATION
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  79  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  51  81 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  76  45  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         51  78  50  77 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 032039
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE THE
RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE THE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY MIDNIGHT WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THEN...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ITS SLOW SPEED MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ITS ARRIVAL
TIME...BUT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS A GOOD
ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
THE SPC DAY 4 TO 8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PROVIDES A GOOD EXPLANATION
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  77  49  78 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  51  81 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         51  78  50  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER W OK REPRESENT VIRGA AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SHRA. WHILE SHRA MAY AFFECT SEVERAL SITES IN SW OK/N TX THIS
AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON AVIATION ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON IN NW OK
WITH A WEAK/DISSIPATING FRONT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY MINOR...WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR DISTANT NE STRENGTHENS. CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR AT KLAW IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT THAT IT OCCURS AT ALL...IT SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF
AND SHALLOW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER W OK REPRESENT VIRGA AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SHRA. WHILE SHRA MAY AFFECT SEVERAL SITES IN SW OK/N TX THIS
AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON AVIATION ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON IN NW OK
WITH A WEAK/DISSIPATING FRONT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY MINOR...WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR DISTANT NE STRENGTHENS. CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR AT KLAW IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT THAT IT OCCURS AT ALL...IT SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF
AND SHALLOW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031701 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031701 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...
AND RADAR TRENDS.

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  50  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031439 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  50  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  50  80  51 /  40  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  50  80  51 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 030809
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  50  80  51 /  20  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 030435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0306/0406Z...
THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 022347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 022347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
0300/0400 TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS (~5K FEET) AT PNC/OKC/OUN WILL SCATTERED/CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 022035
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING
TREND. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TONIGHT
IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WE DO NOT BELIEVE A FROST ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY.

AS A LARGE UPPER/MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. IT
IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SLOW SYSTEMS LIKE
THAT...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
DIFFICULT TO TELL THAT FAR OUT ABOUT THE VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...THINGS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT COME TOGETHER
FOR ANYTHING MAJOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  71  49  77 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  47  79 /   0  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  73  50  80 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           41  71  45  79 /   0  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  72  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         47  72  52  79 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 021730
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WHILE BR/FG CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. SO...IF IT
DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR
OVER W OK TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND BEYOND.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 021536 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 021131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /  10   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /  10   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 021131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /  10   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /  10   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 020906
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /  10   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 020309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  60  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 020309
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  60  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 012259
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 012259
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMMPACT A FEW SITES THIS
EVENING... AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AT SPS. OTHERWISE
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW BEYOND THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS TO MENTION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 012045
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 012045
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA
BORDER...AND WILL MOVE ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS
IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MID- TO LATE-
WEEK...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER SUBDUED NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COME TOGETHER...SO NO FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  64  44  71 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         45  66  42  71 /  20   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  67  45  72 /  30  10   0  20
GAGE OK           40  65  40  71 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  63  41  71 /  30  10   0  10
DURANT OK         51  67  47  72 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/23





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