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000
FXUS64 KOUN 221142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL FORM AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE A FEW SITES MAY DROP TO LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS THIS IS UNLIKELY.

AREA OF RA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
EXCEPT NEAR KPNC...KWWR...AND KGAG AFTER 10Z WHERE CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  60  76  63 /  90  40  90  90
HOBART OK         65  60  73  61 /  70  50  90  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  63  79  64 /  90  30  90  90
GAGE OK           63  57  68  58 /  50  60  90  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  58  70  63 /  90  60  90  80
DURANT OK         69  61  78  65 /  70  20  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 221142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL FORM AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE A FEW SITES MAY DROP TO LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS THIS IS UNLIKELY.

AREA OF RA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
EXCEPT NEAR KPNC...KWWR...AND KGAG AFTER 10Z WHERE CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  60  76  63 /  90  40  90  90
HOBART OK         65  60  73  61 /  70  50  90  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  63  79  64 /  90  30  90  90
GAGE OK           63  57  68  58 /  50  60  90  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  58  70  63 /  90  60  90  80
DURANT OK         69  61  78  65 /  70  20  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL FORM AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE A FEW SITES MAY DROP TO LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS THIS IS UNLIKELY.

AREA OF RA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
EXCEPT NEAR KPNC...KWWR...AND KGAG AFTER 10Z WHERE CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  60  76  63 /  90  40  90  90
HOBART OK         65  60  73  61 /  70  50  90  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  63  79  64 /  90  30  90  90
GAGE OK           63  57  68  58 /  50  60  90  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  58  70  63 /  90  60  90  80
DURANT OK         69  61  78  65 /  70  20  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220917
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  60  76  63 /  90  40  90  90
HOBART OK         65  60  73  61 /  70  50  90  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  63  79  64 /  90  30  90  90
GAGE OK           63  57  68  58 /  50  60  90  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  58  70  63 /  90  60  90  80
DURANT OK         69  61  78  65 /  70  20  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220917
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  60  76  63 /  90  40  90  90
HOBART OK         65  60  73  61 /  70  50  90  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  63  79  64 /  90  30  90  90
GAGE OK           63  57  68  58 /  50  60  90  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  58  70  63 /  90  60  90  80
DURANT OK         69  61  78  65 /  70  20  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AS MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON EXISTING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS LOW.
HOWEVER...AS RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS
UP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ROUND...AND MOST HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS INITIAL WAVE WEAKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS
WEST. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE OVERALL...SOME
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE
PROLONGED LIGHT RAINFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RISE IN AREA RIVERS
AND LAKES...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SINCE THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SAY A FEW SITES
MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS. RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  80  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  70  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AS MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON EXISTING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS LOW.
HOWEVER...AS RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS
UP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ROUND...AND MOST HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS INITIAL WAVE WEAKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS
WEST. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE OVERALL...SOME
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE
PROLONGED LIGHT RAINFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RISE IN AREA RIVERS
AND LAKES...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SINCE THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SAY A FEW SITES
MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS. RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  80  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  70  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AS MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON EXISTING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS LOW.
HOWEVER...AS RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS
UP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ROUND...AND MOST HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS INITIAL WAVE WEAKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS
WEST. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE OVERALL...SOME
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE
PROLONGED LIGHT RAINFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RISE IN AREA RIVERS
AND LAKES...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SINCE THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SAY A FEW SITES
MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS. RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  80  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  70  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AS MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON EXISTING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS LOW.
HOWEVER...AS RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS
UP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ROUND...AND MOST HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS INITIAL WAVE WEAKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS
WEST. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE OVERALL...SOME
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE
PROLONGED LIGHT RAINFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RISE IN AREA RIVERS
AND LAKES...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SINCE THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SAY A FEW SITES
MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS. RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  80  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  70  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1024 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SAY A FEW SITES
MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS. RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BUT SPREAD EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR
AND VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  80  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  70  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220324
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1024 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SAY A FEW SITES
MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS. RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BUT SPREAD EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR
AND VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  80  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  70  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BUT SPREAD EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR
AND VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BUT SPREAD EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR
AND VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BUT SPREAD EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR
AND VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 212332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BUT SPREAD EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR
AND VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 212052
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212052
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 212052
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211739 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES...
WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST... PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z AT SPS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.  ELSEWHERE....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE MORNING...BUT
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS...DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES INITIALLY. RAIN AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...WITH SOME RISK OF FLOODING.

MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT
SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE
FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  62  58  73 /  60  80  50  70
HOBART OK         52  63  59  72 /  80  80  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  68  63  77 /  70  80  40  70
GAGE OK           49  63  55  71 /  80  60  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     50  62  56  72 /  40  70  60  70
DURANT OK         58  67  61  78 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/26/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211200
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z AT SPS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.  ELSEWHERE....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE MORNING...BUT
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS...DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES INITIALLY. RAIN AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...WITH SOME RISK OF FLOODING.

MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT
SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE
FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  54  62  58 /  10  60  80  50
HOBART OK         65  52  63  59 /  10  80  80  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  56  68  63 /  20  70  80  40
GAGE OK           64  49  63  55 /  10  80  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  62  56 /   0  40  70  60
DURANT OK         69  58  67  61 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211200
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z AT SPS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.  ELSEWHERE....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE MORNING...BUT
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS...DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES INITIALLY. RAIN AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...WITH SOME RISK OF FLOODING.

MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT
SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE
FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  54  62  58 /  10  60  80  50
HOBART OK         65  52  63  59 /  10  80  80  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  56  68  63 /  20  70  80  40
GAGE OK           64  49  63  55 /  10  80  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  62  56 /   0  40  70  60
DURANT OK         69  58  67  61 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210924
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE MORNING...BUT
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS...DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES INITIALLY. RAIN AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...WITH SOME RISK OF FLOODING.

MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT
SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE
FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  54  62  58 /  10  60  80  50
HOBART OK         65  52  63  59 /  10  80  80  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  56  68  63 /  20  70  80  40
GAGE OK           64  49  63  55 /  10  80  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  62  56 /   0  40  70  60
DURANT OK         69  58  67  61 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210924
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE MORNING...BUT
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS...DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES INITIALLY. RAIN AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...WITH SOME RISK OF FLOODING.

MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT
SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE
FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  54  62  58 /  10  60  80  50
HOBART OK         65  52  63  59 /  10  80  80  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  56  68  63 /  20  70  80  40
GAGE OK           64  49  63  55 /  10  80  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  62  56 /   0  40  70  60
DURANT OK         69  58  67  61 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210516
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
AROUND 14Z TO 18Z THURS. THEREAFTER...BKN VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN OK/N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THESE
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE...ASIDE FROM PERHAPS KLAW/KSPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPDATES OUT SOON.

WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT /5Z
FRIDAY/ TO MONDAY MORNING /12Z MONDAY/. THIS IS FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CURRENT SATURATED GROUND...
/ONLY LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING/
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... AND THE FACT THAT THIS
IS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... WE WANTED TO GET THE WATCH OUT SO THAT
PEOPLE WOULD BE AWARE AND CAN MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  64  58  73 /  60  70  50  70
HOBART OK         52  65  59  72 /  70  70  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  71  63  77 /  70  70  40  70
GAGE OK           49  64  55  71 /  70  40  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     50  64  56  72 /  40  70  60  70
DURANT OK         58  69  61  78 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210516
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
AROUND 14Z TO 18Z THURS. THEREAFTER...BKN VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN OK/N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THESE
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE...ASIDE FROM PERHAPS KLAW/KSPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPDATES OUT SOON.

WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT /5Z
FRIDAY/ TO MONDAY MORNING /12Z MONDAY/. THIS IS FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CURRENT SATURATED GROUND...
/ONLY LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING/
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... AND THE FACT THAT THIS
IS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... WE WANTED TO GET THE WATCH OUT SO THAT
PEOPLE WOULD BE AWARE AND CAN MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  64  58  73 /  60  70  50  70
HOBART OK         52  65  59  72 /  70  70  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  71  63  77 /  70  70  40  70
GAGE OK           49  64  55  71 /  70  40  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     50  64  56  72 /  40  70  60  70
DURANT OK         58  69  61  78 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210516
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
AROUND 14Z TO 18Z THURS. THEREAFTER...BKN VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN OK/N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THESE
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE...ASIDE FROM PERHAPS KLAW/KSPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPDATES OUT SOON.

WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT /5Z
FRIDAY/ TO MONDAY MORNING /12Z MONDAY/. THIS IS FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CURRENT SATURATED GROUND...
/ONLY LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING/
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... AND THE FACT THAT THIS
IS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... WE WANTED TO GET THE WATCH OUT SO THAT
PEOPLE WOULD BE AWARE AND CAN MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  64  58  73 /  60  70  50  70
HOBART OK         52  65  59  72 /  70  70  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  71  63  77 /  70  70  40  70
GAGE OK           49  64  55  71 /  70  40  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     50  64  56  72 /  40  70  60  70
DURANT OK         58  69  61  78 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210218 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPDATES OUT SOON.

WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT /5Z
FRIDAY/ TO MONDAY MORNING /12Z MONDAY/. THIS IS FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CURRENT SATURATED GROUND...
/ONLY LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING/
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... AND THE FACT THAT THIS
IS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... WE WANTED TO GET THE WATCH OUT SO THAT
PEOPLE WOULD BE AWARE AND CAN MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS PARKED SOUTH OF TERMINALS...AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER THIS FEATURE. SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP AT KSPS.
ELSEWHERE...NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH SFC HEATING...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME THURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         50  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           45  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     46  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS PARKED SOUTH OF TERMINALS...AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER THIS FEATURE. SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP AT KSPS.
ELSEWHERE...NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH SFC HEATING...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME THURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         51  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           46  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     47  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS PARKED SOUTH OF TERMINALS...AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER THIS FEATURE. SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP AT KSPS.
ELSEWHERE...NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH SFC HEATING...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME THURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         51  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           46  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     47  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS PARKED SOUTH OF TERMINALS...AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER THIS FEATURE. SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP AT KSPS.
ELSEWHERE...NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH SFC HEATING...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME THURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         51  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           46  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     47  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202112
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         51  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           46  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     47  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202112
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         51  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           46  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     47  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202112
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         51  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           46  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     47  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TODAY BASED ON TRENDS AND
SHORT-TERM MODELS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE MOST OF
THE DAYTIME APART FROM A FEW INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SMALL CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXIST
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY BECAUSE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  51  66  54 /  40  10  10  50
HOBART OK         65  50  65  53 /  20  20  10  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  54  67  56 /  40  40  30  60
GAGE OK           60  45  63  49 /  10  10  10  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  47  67  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         76  55  69  58 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TODAY BASED ON TRENDS AND
SHORT-TERM MODELS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE MOST OF
THE DAYTIME APART FROM A FEW INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SMALL CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXIST
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY BECAUSE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  51  66  54 /  40  10  10  50
HOBART OK         65  50  65  53 /  20  20  10  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  54  67  56 /  40  40  30  60
GAGE OK           60  45  63  49 /  10  10  10  70
PONCA CITY OK     65  47  67  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         76  55  69  58 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/26





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201154
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
654 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MVFR
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...SO SHOULD AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDER MAY PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
LAW/SPS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WEAK LIFT INCREASES NEAR SPS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  51  66  54 /  40  10  10  50
HOBART OK         66  50  65  53 /  20  20  10  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  54  67  56 /  40  40  30  60
GAGE OK           61  45  63  49 /  10  10  10  70
PONCA CITY OK     66  47  67  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         77  55  69  58 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-037-
     041>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201154
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
654 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MVFR
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...SO SHOULD AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDER MAY PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
LAW/SPS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WEAK LIFT INCREASES NEAR SPS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  51  66  54 /  40  10  10  50
HOBART OK         66  50  65  53 /  20  20  10  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  54  67  56 /  40  40  30  60
GAGE OK           61  45  63  49 /  10  10  10  70
PONCA CITY OK     66  47  67  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         77  55  69  58 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-037-
     041>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200759
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  53  66  54 /  40  20  10  30
HOBART OK         67  52  66  54 /  20  20  20  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  57  69  57 /  40  50  30  50
GAGE OK           62  47  64  50 /  10  10  10  60
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  66  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         80  59  71  59 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200759
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  53  66  54 /  40  20  10  30
HOBART OK         67  52  66  54 /  20  20  20  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  57  69  57 /  40  50  30  50
GAGE OK           62  47  64  50 /  10  10  10  60
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  66  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         80  59  71  59 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200759
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  53  66  54 /  40  20  10  30
HOBART OK         67  52  66  54 /  20  20  20  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  57  69  57 /  40  50  30  50
GAGE OK           62  47  64  50 /  10  10  10  60
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  66  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         80  59  71  59 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200759
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  53  66  54 /  40  20  10  30
HOBART OK         67  52  66  54 /  20  20  20  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  57  69  57 /  40  50  30  50
GAGE OK           62  47  64  50 /  10  10  10  60
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  66  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         80  59  71  59 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
20/06Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
12-14Z WITH MOIST LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH NEXT 6-9 HOURS. STRONGEST
TSRA WILL BE CONFINED NEAR KSPS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS I-40. MOST
OF THE RAIN PROGD TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS BY 10-12Z.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  66  54  68 /  20  10  30  70
HOBART OK         52  66  54  69 /  20  20  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  69  57  74 /  50  30  50  60
GAGE OK           47  64  50  65 /  10  10  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     50  66  51  67 /  10  10  20  60
DURANT OK         59  71  59  72 /  50  40  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

11/06




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200551
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
20/06Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
12-14Z WITH MOIST LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH NEXT 6-9 HOURS. STRONGEST
TSRA WILL BE CONFINED NEAR KSPS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS I-40. MOST
OF THE RAIN PROGD TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS BY 10-12Z.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  66  54  68 /  20  10  30  70
HOBART OK         52  66  54  69 /  20  20  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  69  57  74 /  50  30  50  60
GAGE OK           47  64  50  65 /  10  10  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     50  66  51  67 /  10  10  20  60
DURANT OK         59  71  59  72 /  50  40  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

11/06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200255 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. THINK
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AND DUE TO
HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT...THAT WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM HOBART TO ALTUS TO QUANAH AT 950 PM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD POOL. WITH THIS THOUGHT AND LOOKING AT
LATEST HRRR RUNS...THINK THIS LINE WILL GROW UPSCALE...BECOME A
LARGE ORGANIZED COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME WIND AND HAIL REPORTS. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL. THIS LINE MAY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
A FEW NON SEVERE AND LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  68  53  66 /  70  40  20  10
HOBART OK         53  67  52  66 / 100  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  76  57  69 / 100  40  50  30
GAGE OK           45  62  47  64 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     51  66  50  66 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         62  80  59  71 / 100  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

MBS





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200255 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. THINK
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AND DUE TO
HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT...THAT WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM HOBART TO ALTUS TO QUANAH AT 950 PM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD POOL. WITH THIS THOUGHT AND LOOKING AT
LATEST HRRR RUNS...THINK THIS LINE WILL GROW UPSCALE...BECOME A
LARGE ORGANIZED COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME WIND AND HAIL REPORTS. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL. THIS LINE MAY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
A FEW NON SEVERE AND LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  68  53  66 /  70  40  20  10
HOBART OK         53  67  52  66 / 100  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  76  57  69 / 100  40  50  30
GAGE OK           45  62  47  64 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     51  66  50  66 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         62  80  59  71 / 100  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

MBS




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  90  40  20  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  40  50  30
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  30  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>030-033>040-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     015.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087-088.

&&

$$

23/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  90  40  20  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  40  50  30
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  30  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>030-033>040-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     015.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087-088.

&&

$$

23/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  90  40  20  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  40  50  30
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  30  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>030-033>040-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     015.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087-088.

&&

$$

23/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192144
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  90  40  20  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  40  50  30
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  30  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-013-019-020-025-
     026-028>030-040.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-012-016>018-
     022>024-027-034>039-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     014-015-021-033.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087-088.

&&

$$

17/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192144
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  90  40  20  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  40  50  30
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  30  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-013-019-020-025-
     026-028>030-040.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-012-016>018-
     022>024-027-034>039-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     014-015-021-033.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087-088.

&&

$$

17/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191755
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF
UNRELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...AND VERY COMPLEX
WEATHER MAKES IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN THE START/STOP
TIMES OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENTS BEYOND A FEW HOURS...AND THE TIMING
OF THE WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. IN SHORT...WE
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SE FROM KS INTO OK
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N AND BRINGING AN END TO THE
TSRA/SHRA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE
OPTED TO USE ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 FT AT MOST SITES TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED HEIGHTS. KPNC AND KWWR
HAVE COMMUNICATIONS/EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS...SO AMDS WILL BE LIMITED
AT THOSE SITES UNTIL THE PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW
TORNADOES MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING TODAY AS WELL OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM JUST NORTH OF HOLLIS TO ATOKA AS OF 1045 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL
WAS OCCURRING FROM ARNETT TO HOBART.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE INCREASING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEM LIKELY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS LINE. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
MORE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS CHANCE FOR
SEVERE MAINLY IN THE 2 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. NOT
SURE HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS...
STRONG SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY FORM IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOW TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS/JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LINGER IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. MEANWHILE...RATHER DRY...COOLER AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. WARM...HUMID AIR REMAINS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS.

A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP THE BOUNDARY FROM LIFTING TO FAR NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PER WPC DAY1...BUT WILL ADD A FEW COUNTIES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT BETTER RAIN CHANCES
INTO TEXAS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL ARRIVE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  80  60  30  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  40  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  50  60  20
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  70  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  50  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     016>020-022>030-034>040-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     014-015-021-033.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087>090.

&&

$$

17/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191755
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF
UNRELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...AND VERY COMPLEX
WEATHER MAKES IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN THE START/STOP
TIMES OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENTS BEYOND A FEW HOURS...AND THE TIMING
OF THE WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. IN SHORT...WE
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SE FROM KS INTO OK
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N AND BRINGING AN END TO THE
TSRA/SHRA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE
OPTED TO USE ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 FT AT MOST SITES TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED HEIGHTS. KPNC AND KWWR
HAVE COMMUNICATIONS/EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS...SO AMDS WILL BE LIMITED
AT THOSE SITES UNTIL THE PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW
TORNADOES MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING TODAY AS WELL OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM JUST NORTH OF HOLLIS TO ATOKA AS OF 1045 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL
WAS OCCURRING FROM ARNETT TO HOBART.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE INCREASING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEM LIKELY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS LINE. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
MORE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS CHANCE FOR
SEVERE MAINLY IN THE 2 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. NOT
SURE HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS...
STRONG SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY FORM IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOW TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS/JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LINGER IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. MEANWHILE...RATHER DRY...COOLER AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. WARM...HUMID AIR REMAINS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS.

A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP THE BOUNDARY FROM LIFTING TO FAR NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PER WPC DAY1...BUT WILL ADD A FEW COUNTIES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT BETTER RAIN CHANCES
INTO TEXAS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL ARRIVE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  80  60  30  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  40  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  50  60  20
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  70  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  50  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     016>020-022>030-034>040-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     014-015-021-033.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087>090.

&&

$$

17/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191755
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF
UNRELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...AND VERY COMPLEX
WEATHER MAKES IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN THE START/STOP
TIMES OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENTS BEYOND A FEW HOURS...AND THE TIMING
OF THE WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. IN SHORT...WE
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SE FROM KS INTO OK
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N AND BRINGING AN END TO THE
TSRA/SHRA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE
OPTED TO USE ABOUT 1000 TO 2000 FT AT MOST SITES TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED HEIGHTS. KPNC AND KWWR
HAVE COMMUNICATIONS/EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS...SO AMDS WILL BE LIMITED
AT THOSE SITES UNTIL THE PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW
TORNADOES MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING TODAY AS WELL OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM JUST NORTH OF HOLLIS TO ATOKA AS OF 1045 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL
WAS OCCURRING FROM ARNETT TO HOBART.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE INCREASING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEM LIKELY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS LINE. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
MORE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS CHANCE FOR
SEVERE MAINLY IN THE 2 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. NOT
SURE HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS...
STRONG SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY FORM IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOW TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS/JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LINGER IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. MEANWHILE...RATHER DRY...COOLER AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. WARM...HUMID AIR REMAINS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS.

A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP THE BOUNDARY FROM LIFTING TO FAR NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PER WPC DAY1...BUT WILL ADD A FEW COUNTIES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT BETTER RAIN CHANCES
INTO TEXAS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL ARRIVE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  80  60  30  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  40  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  50  60  20
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  70  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  50  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     016>020-022>030-034>040-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     014-015-021-033.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087>090.

&&

$$

17/23/23




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