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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVRR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY EITHER IN LOW CEILINGS
OR FOG. FOG MAY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LESS THAN
VFR ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         49  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     47  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         50  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210859
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         50  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           50  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210859
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE ENTIRE DAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S LOW CLOUDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A LITTLE MORE WIND. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SWEEP AWAY THE LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY. SOME SUN WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH THE THE
TRANSITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE TROUGH. A
PRELIMINARY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY CREATED SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE MOISTURE IS
SWEPT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER CONDITIONS OF A
SUNNIER MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WINDIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WARMER, SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN MAXIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING AGAIN AN AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. THE FEW MINOR UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT PASS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  42  55  38 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         50  38  56  36 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  41  60  40 /  10   0   0  20
GAGE OK           50  35  54  32 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     48  42  54  36 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         51  44  58  42 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 15Z...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS GET REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS NEAR KCSM...KWWR...
AND KGAG THROUGH 17Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST
OF KEND-KDUC AFTER 15Z. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING ALL SITES EXCEPT KGAG
AND KWWR.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210350
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME VERY
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT ARE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DENSE FOG FORMATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND GENERALLY CONFINE THE
DENSE FOG TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS /SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS OR
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROGER MILLS AND ELLIS COUNTIES/.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERAL FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202108
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202108
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201747 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR FORECAST ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPORARY
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/WESTER OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z. WITH INCREASED LIFT OVERNIGHT AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201747 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR FORECAST ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPORARY
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/WESTER OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z. WITH INCREASED LIFT OVERNIGHT AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/99/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 211200. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND CAUSE LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY IN FOG THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STAY IN PLACE IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS TODAY ARE
TURNING TO THE SOUTH WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. THIS
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG EARLY SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIZZLE. A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS. SUNSHINE AND THE LACK
OF AN IMMEDIATE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE 60S FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY, ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WHEN A MODEST WARMING TREND BEGINS AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  51  40 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         49  37  52  37 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  38  56  40 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           51  33  53  34 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  35  50  40 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOT SURE THAT ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR BEFORE 15Z.
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BECOME IFR
BEFORE 15Z. THINK SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 15-21Z OVER THE AREA
EXCEPT KPNC. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 17Z...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THESE CONDITIONS
AT KGAG AND KWWR. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 22Z ACROSS THE
AREA.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOT SURE THAT ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR BEFORE 15Z.
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BECOME IFR
BEFORE 15Z. THINK SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 15-21Z OVER THE AREA
EXCEPT KPNC. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 17Z...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THESE CONDITIONS
AT KGAG AND KWWR. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 22Z ACROSS THE
AREA.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200314 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         39  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           37  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         40  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200314 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         39  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           37  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         40  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200314 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         39  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           37  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         40  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200314 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION MANY PLACES SO DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH FROM
CURRENT LEVELS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL A LOT SO RAISED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS... PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         39  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           37  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         40  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         34  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           28  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         39  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         34  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           28  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         39  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/AR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         34  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           28  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         39  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191749 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
SOME SITES ACROSS WRN OK MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. OVERALL... EXPECT ALL SITES TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING... WITH CHANCES
FOR MVFR AND IFR FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NOON AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  40  36  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         42  35  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           41  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     39  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/04/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191615 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NOON AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  40  36  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         42  35  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           41  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     39  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191205
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191205
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191036
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191036
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  36  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         44  35  50  39 /  20   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE AS EARLY 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THINK LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSPS AND KLAW...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THESE LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AS WELL. KPNC MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT THINK MVFR WILL MAINLY OCCUR.

GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AT BEST...LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR BY 00Z SATURDAY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO SW OK AND N TX THROUGH 20Z. WENT WITH
VCSH NEAR KSPS...KLAW...AND KHBR AS NOT SURE THESE SITES WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190138 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR START OF RAIN CHANCES ALSO
ADJUSTED AREAS OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG IN WX GRIDS.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         38  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           32  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

OVERALL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SET OF TAFS.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR AND KGAG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OF THE REST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 06-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

ISO-SCT -SHRA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 11Z. ADDED TEMPO
MENTION AT KSPS 13-15Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH AND THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
HUMID SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS NEARBY ON
MONDAY... BUT THERE WILL NOT HAVE BEEN MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN SO POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS WE
APPROACH THE HOLIDAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  45  34  50 /  20  20  10   0
HOBART OK         37  45  32  50 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  48  37  52 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           31  45  29  52 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     32  42  31  49 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         41  48  38  51 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181753 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE... BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181753 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE... BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181623
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181623
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY...LEAVING DRIZZLE INSTEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. LOW OVERCAST
SKIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN AS
FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK. HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LIFR WILL APPLY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WWR/GAG...AND PERHAPS SPS...WHERE
CIGS MAY LIFT TO AROUND 015 BUT THESE WILL DROP AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE AND FOG
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOST THE
DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHCS WILL RETURN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE LUNCHTIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. SOME
BRIEF SNOW MIXED WITH THE COLD RAIN CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NW OK...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT ENDING PRECIP CHCS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AM
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SCHC OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL OK WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. ABOVE AVG
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUES AM....DRYING US OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  38  43  35 /  20  20  20   0
HOBART OK         45  37  44  35 /  20  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  42  47  36 /  10  30  30  10
GAGE OK           40  31  45  31 /  10  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     39  33  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         48  42  47  39 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26





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