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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231153
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS 35-40KTS
AT WWR/GAG. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
SHOWER OR LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
16-17Z OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 22-23Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING
GROUP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WWR/GAG AROUND 7Z AND WILL
APPROACH OKC AROUND 12-13Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH ~15Z. ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY
THE SAME AREA. WINDS MAY GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH (WOODWARD AREA) FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.  VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60 DEWPOINTS...SO HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH
A WIND AND HAIL RISK.

BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. FRONT AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN
QUICKLY...SO BETTER STORM/RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NAM12 DEVELOPS STORMS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN. RATHER WARM 8H
TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CAP HOLDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...BETTER MOISTURE ETC. WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/N TEXAS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
FIRST STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES AT THIS TIME
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND CHANCE OF TORNADOES. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...WINDS BECOME
SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO PERHAPS A COMPLEX OR TWO WITH WIND
AND HAIL THE MAIN RISK. MOST MODELS PUSH THE DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST
OF I-35 BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REMOVE MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT
FINE FUELS/RAINFALL.

MID/UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  62  78  53 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         85  59  80  52 /  20  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  63  83  56 /  10  40  10   0
GAGE OK           85  51  77  49 /  40  50   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  75  52 /   0  40  20   0
DURANT OK         83  62  79  56 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH ~15Z. ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY
THE SAME AREA. WINDS MAY GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH (WOODWARD AREA) FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.  VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60 DEWPOINTS...SO HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH
A WIND AND HAIL RISK.

BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. FRONT AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN
QUICKLY...SO BETTER STORM/RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NAM12 DEVELOPS STORMS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN. RATHER WARM 8H
TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CAP HOLDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...BETTER MOISTURE ETC. WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/N TEXAS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
FIRST STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES AT THIS TIME
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND CHANCE OF TORNADOES. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...WINDS BECOME
SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO PERHAPS A COMPLEX OR TWO WITH WIND
AND HAIL THE MAIN RISK. MOST MODELS PUSH THE DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST
OF I-35 BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REMOVE MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT
FINE FUELS/RAINFALL.

MID/UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  62  78  53 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         85  59  80  52 /  20  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  63  83  56 /  10  40  10   0
GAGE OK           85  51  77  49 /  40  50   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  75  52 /   0  40  20   0
DURANT OK         83  62  79  56 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 230847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH ~15Z. ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY
THE SAME AREA. WINDS MAY GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH (WOODWARD AREA) FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.  VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60 DEWPOINTS...SO HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH
A WIND AND HAIL RISK.

BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. FRONT AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN
QUICKLY...SO BETTER STORM/RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NAM12 DEVELOPS STORMS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN. RATHER WARM 8H
TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CAP HOLDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...BETTER MOISTURE ETC. WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/N TEXAS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
FIRST STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES AT THIS TIME
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND CHANCE OF TORNADOES. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...WINDS BECOME
SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO PERHAPS A COMPLEX OR TWO WITH WIND
AND HAIL THE MAIN RISK. MOST MODELS PUSH THE DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST
OF I-35 BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REMOVE MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT
FINE FUELS/RAINFALL.

MID/UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  62  78  53 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         85  59  80  52 /  20  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  63  83  56 /  10  40  10   0
GAGE OK           85  51  77  49 /  40  50   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  75  52 /   0  40  20   0
DURANT OK         83  62  79  56 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230504
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN OK AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON FROM KWWR/KGAG SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z. SCT TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND MOVE EAST INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS IN
THE 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME...AND HAVE ADDED VCTS AND CB GROUPS TO
LATER PERIODS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE REMAINS LOW FURTHER
EAST...AND WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MARKEDLY AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
35 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FROM KGAG/KWWR SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z TO
22Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY ONE TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED BY
STORMS...SO WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUSION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0  10  40
HOBART OK         81  56  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  57  85  51 /   0   0  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     76  50  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  83  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 230504
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN OK AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON FROM KWWR/KGAG SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z. SCT TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND MOVE EAST INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS IN
THE 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME...AND HAVE ADDED VCTS AND CB GROUPS TO
LATER PERIODS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE REMAINS LOW FURTHER
EAST...AND WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MARKEDLY AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
35 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FROM KGAG/KWWR SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z TO
22Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY ONE TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED BY
STORMS...SO WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUSION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0  10  40
HOBART OK         81  56  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  57  85  51 /   0   0  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     76  50  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  83  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 222340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MARKEDLY AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
35 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FROM KGAG/KWWR SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z TO
22Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY ONE TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED BY
STORMS...SO WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUSION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  84  62  78 /   0  10  40  10
HOBART OK         56  85  59  80 /   0  20  40   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  86  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
GAGE OK           57  85  51  77 /   0  40  50   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  84  61  75 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         57  83  62  79 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 222340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MARKEDLY AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
35 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FROM KGAG/KWWR SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z TO
22Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY ONE TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED BY
STORMS...SO WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUSION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  84  62  78 /   0  10  40  10
HOBART OK         56  85  59  80 /   0  20  40   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  86  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
GAGE OK           57  85  51  77 /   0  40  50   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  84  61  75 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         57  83  62  79 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  84  62  78 /   0  10  40  10
HOBART OK         56  85  59  80 /   0  20  40   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  86  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
GAGE OK           57  85  51  77 /   0  40  50   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  84  61  75 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         57  83  62  79 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  84  62  78 /   0  10  40  10
HOBART OK         56  85  59  80 /   0  20  40   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  86  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
GAGE OK           57  85  51  77 /   0  40  50   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  84  61  75 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         57  83  62  79 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 221710
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AND
BECOME BREEZY/STRONG WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.  LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS (30-40KT) AROUND 2-3K FT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE GROUND
FOG. IN THE SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CREATE SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

RIDGING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER NICE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY... WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS NEAR A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN
OK/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT THOSE THAT FORM...WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE FRONT MAY INCREASE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE....AS WELL AS STORM
INTENSITY.

EXCEPT LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS.

VERY WARM 8H TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY. STRONG HEATING/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A DRYLINE MAY
RESULT IN STORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DGEX
IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND DEVELOPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE...A COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         81  54  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  56  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  51 /   0   0  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  52  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  82  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 221710
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AND
BECOME BREEZY/STRONG WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.  LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS (30-40KT) AROUND 2-3K FT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE GROUND
FOG. IN THE SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CREATE SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

RIDGING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER NICE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY... WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS NEAR A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN
OK/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT THOSE THAT FORM...WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE FRONT MAY INCREASE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE....AS WELL AS STORM
INTENSITY.

EXCEPT LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS.

VERY WARM 8H TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY. STRONG HEATING/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A DRYLINE MAY
RESULT IN STORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DGEX
IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND DEVELOPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE...A COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         81  54  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  56  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  51 /   0   0  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  52  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  82  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221133
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.  LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS (30-40KT) AROUND 2-3K FT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE GROUND
FOG. IN THE SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CREATE SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

RIDGING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER NICE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY... WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS NEAR A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN
OK/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT THOSE THAT FORM...WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE FRONT MAY INCREASE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE....AS WELL AS STORM
INTENSITY.

EXCEPT LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS.

VERY WARM 8H TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY. STRONG HEATING/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A DRYLINE MAY
RESULT IN STORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DGEX
IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND DEVELOPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE...A COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         81  54  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  56  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  51 /   0   0  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  52  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  82  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221133
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.  LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS (30-40KT) AROUND 2-3K FT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE GROUND
FOG. IN THE SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CREATE SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

RIDGING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER NICE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY... WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS NEAR A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN
OK/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT THOSE THAT FORM...WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE FRONT MAY INCREASE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE....AS WELL AS STORM
INTENSITY.

EXCEPT LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS.

VERY WARM 8H TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY. STRONG HEATING/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A DRYLINE MAY
RESULT IN STORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DGEX
IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND DEVELOPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE...A COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         81  54  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  56  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  51 /   0   0  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  52  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  82  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220905
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE GROUND
FOG. IN THE SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CREATE SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

RIDGING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER NICE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY... WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS NEAR A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN
OK/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT THOSE THAT FORM...WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE FRONT MAY INCREASE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE....AS WELL AS STORM
INTENSITY.

EXCEPT LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS.

VERY WARM 8H TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY. STRONG HEATING/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A DRYLINE MAY
RESULT IN STORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DGEX
IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND DEVELOPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE...A COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         81  54  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  56  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  51 /   0   0  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  52  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  82  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220501
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...AREAS IN AND AROUND KOKC/KOUN AND
POINTS EASTWARD WILL SEE PATCHY FOG. FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS TO 2 MI
OR LESS AT TIMES. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z TO 15Z...BRINGING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTH TO
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z TUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING EAST OF A CHANDLER TO MARIETTA LINE.

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE
IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 7 DEGREES OR LESS EAST
OF I-35. THUS...CONFIDENCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING.
DOUBT FOG WILL BECOME TOO DENSE WITH WEAK NORTH WINDS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT
THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS LOWER HERE AS THESE LOCATIONS AND POINTS WEST
EXPERIENCED MORE AFTERNOON SUN AND DRYING THIS AFTERNOON.

NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL.

WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED/REMOVED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR MOORE AND NORMAN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ALL SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...LOWER DEWPOINTS...SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND THE A WIND SHIFT LINE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND HUMIDITY NEAR THE GROUND...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION...BUT WILL MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE OR WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR SOUTHEAST
OF KHBR-KPNC 06-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  70  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  52  81  54 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  46  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  60  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220501
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...AREAS IN AND AROUND KOKC/KOUN AND
POINTS EASTWARD WILL SEE PATCHY FOG. FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS TO 2 MI
OR LESS AT TIMES. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z TO 15Z...BRINGING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTH TO
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z TUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING EAST OF A CHANDLER TO MARIETTA LINE.

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE
IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 7 DEGREES OR LESS EAST
OF I-35. THUS...CONFIDENCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING.
DOUBT FOG WILL BECOME TOO DENSE WITH WEAK NORTH WINDS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT
THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS LOWER HERE AS THESE LOCATIONS AND POINTS WEST
EXPERIENCED MORE AFTERNOON SUN AND DRYING THIS AFTERNOON.

NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL.

WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED/REMOVED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR MOORE AND NORMAN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ALL SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...LOWER DEWPOINTS...SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND THE A WIND SHIFT LINE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND HUMIDITY NEAR THE GROUND...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION...BUT WILL MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE OR WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR SOUTHEAST
OF KHBR-KPNC 06-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  70  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  52  81  54 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  46  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  60  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220156 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
856 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING EAST OF A CHANDLER TO MARIETTA LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE
IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 7 DEGREES OR LESS EAST
OF I-35. THUS...CONFIDENCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING.
DOUBT FOG WILL BECOME TOO DENSE WITH WEAK NORTH WINDS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT
THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS LOWER HERE AS THESE LOCATIONS AND POINTS WEST
EXPERIENCED MORE AFTERNOON SUN AND DRYING THIS AFTERNOON.

NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL.

WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED/REMOVED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR MOORE AND NORMAN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ALL SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...LOWER DEWPOINTS...SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND THE A WIND SHIFT LINE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND HUMIDITY NEAR THE GROUND...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION...BUT WILL MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE OR WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR SOUTHEAST
OF KHBR-KPNC 06-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  80  54  84 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         52  81  54  85 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  56  86 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           46  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  40
PONCA CITY OK     49  79  52  84 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         59  80  57  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 220156 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
856 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING EAST OF A CHANDLER TO MARIETTA LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE
IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 7 DEGREES OR LESS EAST
OF I-35. THUS...CONFIDENCE OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING.
DOUBT FOG WILL BECOME TOO DENSE WITH WEAK NORTH WINDS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT
THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS LOWER HERE AS THESE LOCATIONS AND POINTS WEST
EXPERIENCED MORE AFTERNOON SUN AND DRYING THIS AFTERNOON.

NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL.

WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED/REMOVED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR MOORE AND NORMAN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ALL SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...LOWER DEWPOINTS...SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND THE A WIND SHIFT LINE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND HUMIDITY NEAR THE GROUND...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION...BUT WILL MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE OR WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR SOUTHEAST
OF KHBR-KPNC 06-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  80  54  84 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         52  81  54  85 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  56  86 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           46  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  40
PONCA CITY OK     49  79  52  84 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         59  80  57  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212356 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED/REMOVED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR MOORE AND NORMAN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ALL SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...LOWER DEWPOINTS...SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND THE A WIND SHIFT LINE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND HUMIDITY NEAR THE GROUND...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION...BUT WILL MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE OR WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR SOUTHEAST
OF KHBR-KPNC 06-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  80  54  84 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         53  81  54  85 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  56  86 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           49  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  40
PONCA CITY OK     49  79  52  84 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         59  80  57  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 212356 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED/REMOVED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEAR MOORE AND NORMAN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THINK ALL SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...LOWER DEWPOINTS...SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND THE A WIND SHIFT LINE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND HUMIDITY NEAR THE GROUND...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION...BUT WILL MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE OR WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR SOUTHEAST
OF KHBR-KPNC 06-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  80  54  84 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         53  81  54  85 /  10   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  56  86 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           49  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  40
PONCA CITY OK     49  79  52  84 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         59  80  57  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KOKC AND KOUN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR SOUTHEAST
OF KHBR-KPNC 06-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212021
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  80  54  84 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         53  81  54  85 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  56  86 /  10   0   0  10
GAGE OK           49  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  40
PONCA CITY OK     49  79  52  84 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         59  80  57  82 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212021
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEY ARE OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY UNDER A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THE
WAVE...AND REMAINING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT...WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A SURFACE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  80  54  84 /  10   0   0  10
HOBART OK         53  81  54  85 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  56  86 /  10   0   0  10
GAGE OK           49  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  40
PONCA CITY OK     49  79  52  84 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         59  80  57  82 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A FEW TSRA MAY OCCUR IN SE
OK...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT BR OR FG MAY FORM IN SE OK...BUT SHOULD MISS
OUR TAF SITES. IF THE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME BR/FG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST OF OUR
SITES...ESPECIALLY KLAW AND KSPS. WINDS WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...AFTER A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT THROUGH EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD STAY MULTI-CELLULAR IN MODE. TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TAKE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  70  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  53  81  54 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  49  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  40  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A FEW TSRA MAY OCCUR IN SE
OK...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT BR OR FG MAY FORM IN SE OK...BUT SHOULD MISS
OUR TAF SITES. IF THE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME BR/FG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST OF OUR
SITES...ESPECIALLY KLAW AND KSPS. WINDS WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...AFTER A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT THROUGH EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD STAY MULTI-CELLULAR IN MODE. TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TAKE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  70  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  53  81  54 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  49  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  40  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211712
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD STAY MULTI-CELLULAR IN MODE. TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TAKE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  30  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  53  81  54 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  49  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  30  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211712
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-44. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD STAY MULTI-CELLULAR IN MODE. TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TAKE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  30  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  53  81  54 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  49  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  30  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210834
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS NEW AREAS DEVELOP IN A MORE ISOLATED FASHION
TO THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING THE LIFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OK TODAY. BY THE AFTERNOON AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THUNDER WILL BE NEARLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CLEAR BY MONDAY EVENING. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
CONNECTED TO A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DRYLINE
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY. A FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY WHEN WINDS BRING MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OK IN THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH BOTH THE
DRYLINE AND A FRONT MOVING INTO OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  53  81  54 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  49  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  40  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210834
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS NEW AREAS DEVELOP IN A MORE ISOLATED FASHION
TO THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING THE LIFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OK TODAY. BY THE AFTERNOON AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THUNDER WILL BE NEARLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CLEAR BY MONDAY EVENING. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
CONNECTED TO A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DRYLINE
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY. A FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY WHEN WINDS BRING MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OK IN THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH BOTH THE
DRYLINE AND A FRONT MOVING INTO OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  54  80  54 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         78  53  81  54 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  56  83  56 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           77  49  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  49  79  52 /  40  10   0   0
DURANT OK         75  59  80  57 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 20Z...THEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 20Z.

-SHRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
ONLY WILL MENTION -TSRA AT KSPS 08Z WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. OTHERWISE...TS MENTION REMAINS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY 09-14Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST 15-21Z. ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 21Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE 12-21Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 20Z...THEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 20Z.

-SHRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
ONLY WILL MENTION -TSRA AT KSPS 08Z WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. OTHERWISE...TS MENTION REMAINS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY 09-14Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST 15-21Z. ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 21Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE 12-21Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210111 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
811 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCREASE
THEM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND DECREASE THEM ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 10 PM
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOM AND NORTHERN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM NEAR CHILDRESS
TO ELDORADO. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE BIGGEST HAZARD...THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUGGEST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT
AT TIMES FOR NEXT HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO...THEY MOVE EAST INTO A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF WICHITA
FALLS AND LAWTON.

LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR ERICK TO WOODWARD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR. THIS LINE SHOULD
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
WEAKENING SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THESE AREAS
TOWARDS OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ONE SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES BETWEEN HOLLIS
AND QUANAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A LINE
OF STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. A FEW HAIL REPORTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW AS WELL.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z.

TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
02-10Z. ADDED MENTION AT MANY SITES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 12-21Z...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTER
FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
BE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  70  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  70  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ONE SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES BETWEEN HOLLIS
AND QUANAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A LINE
OF STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. A FEW HAIL REPORTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z.

TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
02-10Z. ADDED MENTION AT MANY SITES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 12-21Z...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTER
FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
BE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ONE SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES BETWEEN HOLLIS
AND QUANAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A LINE
OF STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. A FEW HAIL REPORTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z.

TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
02-10Z. ADDED MENTION AT MANY SITES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 12-21Z...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTER
FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
BE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201953
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTERFLOW
AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE
AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH CHANCES
DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201953
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTERFLOW
AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE
AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH CHANCES
DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
RA/TSRA...WHERE MVFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THE RA/TSRA
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SW OK AND KSPS TERMINALS NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS IN
EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 21Z AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
AMENDMENTS. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN TX PANHDL AFTER
21Z WHICH COULD AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
REDUCTION TO MVFR BUT MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z
MAINLY CNTRL OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
RA/TSRA...WHERE MVFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THE RA/TSRA
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SW OK AND KSPS TERMINALS NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS IN
EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 21Z AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
AMENDMENTS. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN TX PANHDL AFTER
21Z WHICH COULD AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
REDUCTION TO MVFR BUT MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z
MAINLY CNTRL OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201537
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THAT OUR AFTERNOON POPS/QPF ARE TOO HIGH...WHILE THE NAM12
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS...SINCE IT IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO EXTREMES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FAIRLY BRISKLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...AND ARE ON TRACK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
IS A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. WE WILL MONITOR...AND ADJUST IF NEEDED
LATER.

NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST...BUT IF TRENDS
DIVERGE FROM THE FORECAST...ADJUSTMENTS WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201537
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THAT OUR AFTERNOON POPS/QPF ARE TOO HIGH...WHILE THE NAM12
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS...SINCE IT IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO EXTREMES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FAIRLY BRISKLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...AND ARE ON TRACK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
IS A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. WE WILL MONITOR...AND ADJUST IF NEEDED
LATER.

NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST...BUT IF TRENDS
DIVERGE FROM THE FORECAST...ADJUSTMENTS WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





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