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000
FXUS64 KOUN 051111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 14-18Z.

CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TODAY...GENERALLY THINK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY AND BRING HEAVY VERY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. STORMS WILL
BECOME LINEAR AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE DUE TO COLD POOL FORMATION. DELAYED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND
HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MONDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS IS LEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY MORE...COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS IN SHORT DURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST
DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  73  90  70 /  10   0  10  70
HOBART OK         94  74  92  69 /  10   0  20  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  75  94  73 /  10   0  10  60
GAGE OK           94  74  90  63 /  20   0  70  90
PONCA CITY OK     94  76  91  66 /  20  10  40  80
DURANT OK         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 051111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 14-18Z.

CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TODAY...GENERALLY THINK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY AND BRING HEAVY VERY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. STORMS WILL
BECOME LINEAR AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE DUE TO COLD POOL FORMATION. DELAYED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND
HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MONDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS IS LEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY MORE...COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS IN SHORT DURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST
DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  73  90  70 /  10   0  10  70
HOBART OK         94  74  92  69 /  10   0  20  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  75  94  73 /  10   0  10  60
GAGE OK           94  74  90  63 /  20   0  70  90
PONCA CITY OK     94  76  91  66 /  20  10  40  80
DURANT OK         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 051111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 14-18Z.

CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TODAY...GENERALLY THINK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY AND BRING HEAVY VERY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. STORMS WILL
BECOME LINEAR AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE DUE TO COLD POOL FORMATION. DELAYED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND
HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MONDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS IS LEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY MORE...COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS IN SHORT DURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST
DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  73  90  70 /  10   0  10  70
HOBART OK         94  74  92  69 /  10   0  20  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  75  94  73 /  10   0  10  60
GAGE OK           94  74  90  63 /  20   0  70  90
PONCA CITY OK     94  76  91  66 /  20  10  40  80
DURANT OK         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 051111
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 14-18Z.

CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TODAY...GENERALLY THINK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY AND BRING HEAVY VERY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. STORMS WILL
BECOME LINEAR AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE DUE TO COLD POOL FORMATION. DELAYED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND
HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MONDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS IS LEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY MORE...COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS IN SHORT DURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST
DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  73  90  70 /  10   0  10  70
HOBART OK         94  74  92  69 /  10   0  20  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  75  94  73 /  10   0  10  60
GAGE OK           94  74  90  63 /  20   0  70  90
PONCA CITY OK     94  76  91  66 /  20  10  40  80
DURANT OK         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 050829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TODAY...GENERALLY THINK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY AND BRING HEAVY VERY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. STORMS WILL
BECOME LINEAR AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE DUE TO COLD POOL FORMATION. DELAYED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND
HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MONDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS IS LEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY MORE...COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS IN SHORT DURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST
DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  73  90  70 /  10   0  10  70
HOBART OK         94  74  92  69 /  10   0  20  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  75  94  73 /  10   0  10  60
GAGE OK           94  74  90  63 /  20   0  70  90
PONCA CITY OK     94  76  91  66 /  20  10  40  80
DURANT OK         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 050829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TODAY...GENERALLY THINK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY AND BRING HEAVY VERY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. STORMS WILL
BECOME LINEAR AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE DUE TO COLD POOL FORMATION. DELAYED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND
HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MONDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS IS LEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY MORE...COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS IN SHORT DURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST
DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  73  90  70 /  10   0  10  70
HOBART OK         94  74  92  69 /  10   0  20  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  75  94  73 /  10   0  10  60
GAGE OK           94  74  90  63 /  20   0  70  90
PONCA CITY OK     94  76  91  66 /  20  10  40  80
DURANT OK         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 050346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  20  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 050346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  20  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 050346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  20  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 050346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  20  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 042327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 042327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 042327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 042327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 041723
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT A FEW SPOTS SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT OUR POPS ARE TOO HIGH FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AN UNCAPPED MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...IT DOES NOT SEEM PRUDENT TO LOWER THEM AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALSO APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY
REPRESENTATIVE...SO NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AT
KPNC OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT KGAG EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IN FCST THROUGH 15Z. CONFIDENCE FOR
TERMINAL IMPACTS LATER TODAY FROM TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  40  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 041723
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT A FEW SPOTS SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT OUR POPS ARE TOO HIGH FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AN UNCAPPED MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...IT DOES NOT SEEM PRUDENT TO LOWER THEM AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALSO APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY
REPRESENTATIVE...SO NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AT
KPNC OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT KGAG EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IN FCST THROUGH 15Z. CONFIDENCE FOR
TERMINAL IMPACTS LATER TODAY FROM TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  40  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT OUR POPS ARE TOO HIGH FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AN UNCAPPED MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...IT DOES NOT SEEM PRUDENT TO LOWER THEM AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALSO APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY
REPRESENTATIVE...SO NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AT
KPNC OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT KGAG EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IN FCST THROUGH 15Z. CONFIDENCE FOR
TERMINAL IMPACTS LATER TODAY FROM TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  40  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 041548
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT OUR POPS ARE TOO HIGH FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AN UNCAPPED MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...IT DOES NOT SEEM PRUDENT TO LOWER THEM AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALSO APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY
REPRESENTATIVE...SO NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AT
KPNC OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT KGAG EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IN FCST THROUGH 15Z. CONFIDENCE FOR
TERMINAL IMPACTS LATER TODAY FROM TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  40  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 041137
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AT
KPNC OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT KGAG EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IN FCST THROUGH 15Z. CONFIDENCE FOR
TERMINAL IMPACTS LATER TODAY FROM TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  40  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 041137
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AT
KPNC OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT KGAG EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IN FCST THROUGH 15Z. CONFIDENCE FOR
TERMINAL IMPACTS LATER TODAY FROM TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  40  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 040928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 040233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
933 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH 06Z...WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS. MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, 3-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG IS
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         69  92  73  94 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  93  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           66  91  72  93 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  73  90 /  10  10  50  50
DURANT OK         69  90  73  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 040233
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
933 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH 06Z...WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS. MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, 3-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG IS
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         69  92  73  94 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  93  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           66  91  72  93 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  73  90 /  10  10  50  50
DURANT OK         69  90  73  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 032337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKALHOMA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, 3-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG IS
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  60  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  30  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  10  10  50  50
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  60  50  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 032337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKALHOMA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, 3-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG IS
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  60  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  30  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  10  10  50  50
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  60  50  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031951
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ONE IN NORTHWEST/NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
IN TEXAS. SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG OUR
SOUTHEASTERN...WESTERN...AND SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES. THE SAME
MODELS GENERALLY REDUCE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES DO
NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE IMPROBABLE.

AN UNCAPPED AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
TOMORROW...AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS
WILL ARRIVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT ON TUESDAY...WHEN WIDESPREAD STORMS AND CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  20  10  50  50
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031951
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ONE IN NORTHWEST/NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
IN TEXAS. SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG OUR
SOUTHEASTERN...WESTERN...AND SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES. THE SAME
MODELS GENERALLY REDUCE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES DO
NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE IMPROBABLE.

AN UNCAPPED AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
TOMORROW...AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS
WILL ARRIVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT ON TUESDAY...WHEN WIDESPREAD STORMS AND CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  20  10  50  50
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. EXACT LOCATIONS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO PINPOINT...BUT MOST TAF SITES SHOULD BE MISSED...AS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE SE OF
KSPS-KADH. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY NOT
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS S OK AND N TX. OVERNIGHT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY KOKC/KOUN AND SE. WHETHER OR NOT THE TSRA
OCCUR...THE MOIST GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME BR/FG IN THE SE QUADRANT OF OK...INCLUDING KOKC/KOUN...IF
SKIES BECOME CLR OR SCT. ANY BR/FG THAT FORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON TOMORROW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONFINING
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE MIXED SIGNALS ON STORM
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NUMERIC MODELS... BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY LOW AND DECREASING AND
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 / 100  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. EXACT LOCATIONS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO PINPOINT...BUT MOST TAF SITES SHOULD BE MISSED...AS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE SE OF
KSPS-KADH. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY NOT
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS S OK AND N TX. OVERNIGHT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY KOKC/KOUN AND SE. WHETHER OR NOT THE TSRA
OCCUR...THE MOIST GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME BR/FG IN THE SE QUADRANT OF OK...INCLUDING KOKC/KOUN...IF
SKIES BECOME CLR OR SCT. ANY BR/FG THAT FORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON TOMORROW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONFINING
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE MIXED SIGNALS ON STORM
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NUMERIC MODELS... BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY LOW AND DECREASING AND
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 / 100  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. EXACT LOCATIONS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO PINPOINT...BUT MOST TAF SITES SHOULD BE MISSED...AS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE SE OF
KSPS-KADH. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY NOT
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS S OK AND N TX. OVERNIGHT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY KOKC/KOUN AND SE. WHETHER OR NOT THE TSRA
OCCUR...THE MOIST GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME BR/FG IN THE SE QUADRANT OF OK...INCLUDING KOKC/KOUN...IF
SKIES BECOME CLR OR SCT. ANY BR/FG THAT FORMS IN THE MORNING
SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON TOMORROW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONFINING
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE MIXED SIGNALS ON STORM
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NUMERIC MODELS... BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY LOW AND DECREASING AND
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 / 100  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONFINING
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE MIXED SIGNALS ON STORM
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NUMERIC MODELS... BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY LOW AND DECREASING AND
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  30  30  30  20
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  40  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  20  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  20  10  50  40
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 031536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONFINING
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE MIXED SIGNALS ON STORM
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NUMERIC MODELS... BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY LOW AND DECREASING AND
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  73  90 /  30  30  30  20
HOBART OK         70  92  73  94 /  40  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           67  91  72  93 /  20  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  73  90 /  20  10  50  40
DURANT OK         71  90  73  89 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 / 100  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 031147
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 / 100  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 030958
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAIN TOTALS WERE REALIZED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE OKC METRO.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OFFICIAL RAIN MEASUREMENTS
RECEIVED...TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION JUST
SOUTH OF GUTHRIE DOWN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF EDMOND. AS
EACH DAY EVOLVES...THE NUMBER OF THESE SMALL AREAS OF HIGH RAIN
TOTALS WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOOD ISSUE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SEEN THE PAST 12 HOURS
WOULD TEND TO SPREAD THIS POTENTIAL DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST VEERED LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF MENTIONED STALLED FRONT AS SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. COULD BE A BUSY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WHICH WAS REALIZED ACROSS OKC
METRO LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD REGION LATE SATURDAY...CHANCES
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA AND
MOVE TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGD TO ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS FORECAST CONVECTION NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN PROGD TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND YIELDING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  89  73 /  20  30  30  30
HOBART OK         92  70  92  73 /  30  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  93  75 /  40  40  20  10
GAGE OK           90  67  91  72 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  68  89  73 /  20  20  10  50
DURANT OK         88  71  90  73 /  80  60  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 022332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 022016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14





000
FXUS64 KOUN 022016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  70  89 /  50  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  40  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021812
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01





000
FXUS64 KOUN 021812
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 021812
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL GO UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT TAF SITES. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS MAKE THE
SPECIFIC MENTION OF TSRA IN TAF SITES TRICKY AS PROBABILITY AT
INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01





000
FXUS64 KOUN 021703
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 021703
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




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