000
FXUS64 KOUN 260457
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES TOWARDS
MORNING...AND GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE. LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING...BUT
NO SEVERE WEATHER. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS. EXPECT
THE NIGHT TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 64 86 65 / 60 20 20 10
HOBART OK 86 64 91 65 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 65 91 66 / 30 20 10 10
GAGE OK 86 65 92 68 / 20 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 82 66 82 67 / 20 10 20 20
DURANT OK 82 68 85 65 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 260258
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE. LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING...BUT
NO SEVERE WEATHER. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS. EXPECT
THE NIGHT TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 86 65 88 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 64 91 65 93 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 91 66 92 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 65 92 68 95 / 10 10 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 67 86 / 10 20 20 10
DURANT OK 68 85 65 85 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/04
000
FXUS64 KOUN 252330
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE FROM KOKC SOUTHWARD TO THE RED
RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF TAF SITES AND WEAKENING AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECTING LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT MOST TERMINALS
BY09Z TO 10Z. CIGS SHOULD RISE BY 16Z TO 18Z...WITH ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ONCE AGAIN BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
MADE QUICK UPDATES TO POPS WITH CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER...NORTHWARD THROUGH
ARDMORE...LINDSAY...AND CHICKASHA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WITH MAINLY A LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS...SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME. THIS WAS THE MAIN CHANGE AND WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA. EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NEWD THROUGH TX. MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST
AS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MIDWEEK AS WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. WILL BUMP UP THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LEAD WAVE LIFTING THROUGH AT THAT TIME.
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 86 65 88 / 50 20 10 10
HOBART OK 64 91 65 93 / 30 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 91 66 92 / 30 10 10 10
GAGE OK 65 92 68 95 / 20 10 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 82 67 86 / 20 20 20 10
DURANT OK 66 85 65 85 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/04
000
FXUS64 KOUN 252248
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE QUICK UPDATES TO POPS WITH CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER...NORTHWARD THROUGH
ARDMORE...LINDSAY...AND CHICKASHA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD...WITH MAINLY A LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS...SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME. THIS WAS THE MAIN CHANGE AND WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE LATER
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA. EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NEWD THROUGH TX. MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST
AS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MIDWEEK AS WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. WILL BUMP UP THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LEAD WAVE LIFTING THROUGH AT THAT TIME.
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 86 65 88 / 50 20 10 10
HOBART OK 64 91 65 93 / 30 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 91 66 92 / 30 10 10 10
GAGE OK 65 92 68 95 / 20 10 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 82 67 86 / 20 20 20 10
DURANT OK 66 85 65 85 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/04
000
FXUS64 KOUN 251947
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
247 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA. EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NEWD THROUGH TX. MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST
AS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MIDWEEK AS WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. WILL BUMP UP THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LEAD WAVE LIFTING THROUGH AT THAT TIME.
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 86 65 88 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 64 91 65 93 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 91 66 92 / 30 10 10 10
GAGE OK 65 92 68 95 / 20 10 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 82 67 86 / 20 20 20 10
DURANT OK 66 85 65 85 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 251726 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION... GENLY MVFR CIGS AT MIDDAY WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO MAINLY VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS
ACTIVITY WILL GO WITH VCTS IN TAFS. GENLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER CHANCES.
OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES
SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS TODAY WILL
KEEP SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS LARGER WESTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH. MODELS STILL DISAGREE AS TO HOW THIS
WILL EVOLVE... WITH THE LATEST GFS LIFTING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER... THE ECMWF CONT TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MUCH
MORE THAN THE GFS AND IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH
RAIN CHANCES AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES... BUT WILL CONT
TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE... WINDY...
WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 65 85 67 / 30 30 10 10
HOBART OK 86 65 90 68 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 67 91 68 / 30 30 10 10
GAGE OK 86 64 91 68 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 82 65 87 68 / 20 20 20 20
DURANT OK 82 66 86 66 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 251537 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER CHANCES.
OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES
SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS TODAY WILL
KEEP SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS LARGER WESTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH. MODELS STILL DISAGREE AS TO HOW THIS
WILL EVOLVE... WITH THE LATEST GFS LIFTING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER... THE ECMWF CONT TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MUCH
MORE THAN THE GFS AND IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH
RAIN CHANCES AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES... BUT WILL CONT
TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE... WINDY...
WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 65 85 67 / 30 30 10 10
HOBART OK 86 65 90 68 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 67 91 68 / 30 30 10 10
GAGE OK 86 64 91 68 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 82 65 87 68 / 20 20 20 20
DURANT OK 82 66 86 66 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 250849
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS TODAY WILL
KEEP SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS LARGER WESTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH. MODELS STILL DISAGREE AS TO HOW THIS
WILL EVOLVE... WITH THE LATEST GFS LIFTING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER... THE ECMWF CONT TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MUCH
MORE THAN THE GFS AND IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH
RAIN CHANCES AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES... BUT WILL CONT
TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE... WINDY...
WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONT THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 65 85 67 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 86 65 90 68 / 20 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 66 91 68 / 30 20 10 10
GAGE OK 86 64 91 68 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 82 66 87 68 / 20 20 20 20
DURANT OK 82 66 86 66 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/30
000
FXUS64 KOUN 250443
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN N TX. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME ACROSS WRN AND NWRN OK
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
WITH A DRY SLOT IMPINGING THE ERN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EWRD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DROP NEAR MVFR
THROUGH SATURDAY AS CLOUDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 KT RANGE.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS AND TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THIS EVENINGS POPS AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX. ON THE
WHOLE...RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. OVERALL...THESE UPDRAFTS
HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE...ALTHOUGH ONE OVER ROGER MILLS COUNTY
AROUND 730 RESULTED IN A 64 MPH GUST AT CHEYENNE AND QUARTER SIZED
HAIL AT ROLL. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS REMAIN
LIKELY...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SO KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS
ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
06 TO 12Z TIME FRAME.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 84 65 85 / 30 30 20 10
HOBART OK 65 86 65 90 / 50 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 86 66 91 / 50 30 20 10
GAGE OK 65 86 64 91 / 50 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 66 87 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 66 82 66 86 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 250143
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
843 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS AND TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THIS EVENINGS POPS AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX. ON THE
WHOLE...RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. OVERALL...THESE UPDRAFTS
HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE...ALTHOUGH ONE OVER ROGER MILLS COUNTY
AROUND 730 RESULTED IN A 64 MPH GUST AT CHEYENNE AND QUARTER SIZED
HAIL AT ROLL. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS REMAIN
LIKELY...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SO KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS
ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
06 TO 12Z TIME FRAME.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREA AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY
KSPS...KHBR...KCSM. VFR TO MVFR SCT TO BKN CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...GUSTING INTO THE LOW 20S. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...REMAINING BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CIGS WILL REMAIN
SCT TO BKN THROUGH SATURDAY...LIKELY LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND SEVERAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AROUND
PEAK HEATING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WHILE A STRAY
SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH
LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR PRESENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH A LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL AND WIND THREAT THAN ANYTHING
ELSE.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO A PERIOD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS DEPICT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY...INCREASING WIND SHEAR WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH
MODELS DEPICTING VARIED SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 84 65 85 / 30 30 20 10
HOBART OK 65 86 65 90 / 50 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 86 66 91 / 50 30 20 10
GAGE OK 65 86 64 91 / 50 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 66 87 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 66 82 66 86 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 242332
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREA AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY
KSPS...KHBR...KCSM. VFR TO MVFR SCT TO BKN CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH BREEZY SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...GUSTING INTO THE LOW 20S. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...REMAINING BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CIGS WILL REMAIN
SCT TO BKN THROUGH SATURDAY...LIKELY LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND SEVERAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AROUND
PEAK HEATING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WHILE A STRAY
SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH
LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR PRESENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH A LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL AND WIND THREAT THAN ANYTHING
ELSE.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO A PERIOD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS DEPICT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY...INCREASING WIND SHEAR WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH
MODELS DEPICTING VARIED SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 84 65 85 / 20 30 20 10
HOBART OK 65 86 65 90 / 30 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 86 66 91 / 30 30 20 10
GAGE OK 65 86 64 91 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 66 87 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 66 82 66 86 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 242050
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND SEVERAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AROUND
PEAK HEATING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WHILE A STRAY
SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH
LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR PRESENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH A LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL AND WIND THREAT THAN ANYTHING
ELSE.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO A PERIOD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS DEPICT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY...INCREASING WIND SHEAR WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH
MODELS DEPICTING VARIED SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 84 65 85 / 20 30 20 10
HOBART OK 65 86 65 90 / 30 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 86 66 91 / 30 30 20 10
GAGE OK 65 86 64 91 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 66 87 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 66 82 66 86 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 241434
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE QUICK TWEAKS TO POPS THIS MORNING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HERE...ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AS CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGHER IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. KEPT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH 20 AND 30 PERCENT POPS...AS
MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO STAY WEST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. WILL BE MONITORING THIS WITH
ONGOING RELIEF EFFORTS IN TORNADO IMPACTED AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT OBS AND GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE TREND THROUGH THE
DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN... BUT ONE THAT IS A
BIT HARD TO FORECAST AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER THIS IS A WEAK RIDGE AND MULTIPLE IMPULSES CONT TO WORK
THROUGH THE RIDGE BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TIMING AND LOCATION OF BOTH THE IMPULSES AND MAIN AREAS
TO SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A FEW RELATIVELY DRY DAYS EVEN
THOUGH THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WE BEGIN TO SEE LARGER SCALE
WESTERN TROUGH TAKE SHAPE. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS... AND PERHAPS MORE SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 64 83 64 / 30 20 20 20
HOBART OK 82 65 85 63 / 50 30 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 67 88 64 / 50 30 30 30
GAGE OK 79 63 86 63 / 50 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 63 84 64 / 20 20 30 20
DURANT OK 82 64 85 67 / 60 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 240911
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN... BUT ONE THAT IS A
BIT HARD TO FORECAST AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER THIS IS A WEAK RIDGE AND MULTIPLE IMPULSES CONT TO WORK
THROUGH THE RIDGE BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TIMING AND LOCATION OF BOTH THE IMPULSES AND MAIN AREAS
TO SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A FEW RELATIVELY DRY DAYS EVEN
THOUGH THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WE BEGIN TO SEE LARGER SCALE
WESTERN TROUGH TAKE SHAPE. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS... AND PERHAPS MORE SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 64 83 64 / 20 20 20 20
HOBART OK 84 65 85 63 / 30 30 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 67 88 64 / 30 30 30 30
GAGE OK 80 63 86 63 / 30 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 75 63 84 64 / 20 20 30 20
DURANT OK 82 64 85 67 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/30
000
FXUS64 KOUN 240450
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING...DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...SOME
LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION IT FOR
THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS
DISCUSSION...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS OK
AND THE TEXOMA REGION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...A ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN OK AND WRN N TX...THE WEATHER REMAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET...HOWEVER A WEAK UPDRAFT DEVELOPED OVER COMANCHE COUNTY NEAR
LAWTON...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL WEST
TEXAS LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STRUGGLING IN
THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE LUB CWA...THESE UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE BUT MAY MAKE THERE WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WRN N TX...
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OF WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 77 63 81 / 30 40 30 20
HOBART OK 64 84 64 84 / 60 40 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 88 66 88 / 50 30 50 30
GAGE OK 59 80 62 84 / 50 30 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 75 62 83 / 70 30 20 30
DURANT OK 65 82 63 84 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 240137
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS
.DISCUSSION...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS OK
AND THE TEXOMA REGION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...A ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN OK AND WRN N TX...THE WEATHER REMAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET...HOWEVER A WEAK UPDRAFT DEVELOPED OVER COMANCHE COUNTY NEAR
LAWTON...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL WEST
TEXAS LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STRUGGLING IN
THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE LUB CWA...THESE UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE BUT MAY MAKE THERE WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WRN N TX...
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OF WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES. EARLY CONVECTION
THIS EVENING HAS REMAINED SW OF THE REGION...THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FOR KPNC...-RA TO -TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE AS A STALLED
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NERN OK THIS EVENING.
THROUGH 06Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONFIDENCE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS ACROSS WRN OK AND CENTRAL OK...EXCEPT FOR KLAW AND
KSPS.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY 10 TO 15 KTS AT TIMES OUT OF THE E/SE OVERALL.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
SPRUCED UP POPS THIS EVENING AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TREND.
DISCUSSION...
DEALING WITH TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THE FIRST
OF WHICH...IS THE REMNANTS FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LINE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS WRN N TX...JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY CONFINED TO THE SFC TROUGH
FROM JUST SW OF KNOX COUNTY TX THROUGH BORDEN COUNTY TX.
OVERALL...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE.
WITH 40 DEGREE SFC DEW POINTS...WIND REPORTS OUT OF THIS LINE HAS
BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH UPWARDS OF 100 MPH REPORTED WITH THE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FISHER COUNTY TX.
EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS PLAINS
AND PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WRN OK LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...FORCING
THE SFC BOUNDARY EWD. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...BUT
APPEAR A BIT TO BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
NONETHELESS...INCREASED POPS SLOWLY AFTER 00Z THROUGH 06Z FOR WRN
OK. WITH MODEST WIND FIELDS AND DEW POINTS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY PERSISTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING STORMS...FLASH FLOODING HAS BECOME A
THREAT IN THIS AREA...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING...AND NOT DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH OVER
AREA ROADWAYS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4 TO 6 AM TIME FRAME
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DESPITE MID LEVEL RIDGING...A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED BOUTS OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THEN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE PERHAPS A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 77 63 81 / 30 40 30 20
HOBART OK 64 84 64 84 / 60 40 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 88 66 88 / 50 30 50 30
GAGE OK 59 80 62 84 / 50 30 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 75 62 83 / 70 30 20 30
DURANT OK 65 82 63 84 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KOUN 232353
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES. EARLY CONVECTION
THIS EVENING HAS REMAINED SW OF THE REGION...THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FOR KPNC...-RA TO -TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE AS A STALLED
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NERN OK THIS EVENING.
THROUGH 06Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONFIDENCE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS ACROSS WRN OK AND CENTRAL OK...EXCEPT FOR KLAW AND
KSPS.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY 10 TO 15 KTS AT TIMES OUT OF THE E/SE OVERALL.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
SPRUCED UP POPS THIS EVENING AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TREND.
DISCUSSION...
DEALING WITH TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THE FIRST
OF WHICH...IS THE REMNANTS FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LINE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS WRN N TX...JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY CONFINED TO THE SFC TROUGH
FROM JUST SW OF KNOX COUNTY TX THROUGH BORDEN COUNTY TX.
OVERALL...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE.
WITH 40 DEGREE SFC DEW POINTS...WIND REPORTS OUT OF THIS LINE HAS
BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH UPWARDS OF 100 MPH REPORTED WITH THE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FISHER COUNTY TX.
EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS PLAINS
AND PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WRN OK LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...FORCING
THE SFC BOUNDARY EWD. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...BUT
APPEAR A BIT TO BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
NONETHELESS...INCREASED POPS SLOWLY AFTER 00Z THROUGH 06Z FOR WRN
OK. WITH MODEST WIND FIELDS AND DEW POINTS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY PERSISTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING STORMS...FLASH FLOODING HAS BECOME A
THREAT IN THIS AREA...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING...AND NOT DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH OVER
AREA ROADWAYS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4 TO 6 AM TIME FRAME
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DESPITE MID LEVEL RIDGING...A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED BOUTS OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THEN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE PERHAPS A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 77 63 81 / 50 40 30 20
HOBART OK 64 84 64 84 / 70 40 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 88 66 88 / 70 30 50 30
GAGE OK 59 80 62 84 / 60 30 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 75 62 83 / 70 30 20 30
DURANT OK 65 82 63 84 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04/04
000
FXUS64 KOUN 232340
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
SPRUCED UP POPS THIS EVENING AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEALING WITH TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THE FIRST
OF WHICH...IS THE REMNANTS FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LINE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS WRN N TX...JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY CONFINED TO THE SFC TROUGH
FROM JUST SW OF KNOX COUNTY TX THROUGH BORDEN COUNTY TX.
OVERALL...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE.
WITH 40 DEGREE SFC DEW POINTS...WIND REPORTS OUT OF THIS LINE HAS
BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH UPWARDS OF 100 MPH REPORTED WITH THE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FISHER COUNTY TX.
EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS PLAINS
AND PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WRN OK LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...FORCING
THE SFC BOUNDARY EWD. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...BUT
APPEAR A BIT TO BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
NONETHELESS...INCREASED POPS SLOWLY AFTER 00Z THROUGH 06Z FOR WRN
OK. WITH MODEST WIND FIELDS AND DEW POINTS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY PERSISTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING STORMS...FLASH FLOODING HAS BECOME A
THREAT IN THIS AREA...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING...AND NOT DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH OVER
AREA ROADWAYS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4 TO 6 AM TIME FRAME
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DESPITE MID LEVEL RIDGING...A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED BOUTS OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THEN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE PERHAPS A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 77 63 81 / 50 40 30 20
HOBART OK 64 84 64 84 / 70 40 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 88 66 88 / 70 30 50 30
GAGE OK 59 80 62 84 / 60 30 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 75 62 83 / 70 30 20 30
DURANT OK 65 82 63 84 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 232029
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY PERSISTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING STORMS...FLASH FLOODING HAS BECOME A
THREAT IN THIS AREA...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING...AND NOT DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH OVER
AREA ROADWAYS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4 TO 6 AM TIME FRAME
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DESPITE MID LEVEL RIDGING...A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED BOUTS OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THEN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE PERHAPS A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 77 63 81 / 30 40 30 20
HOBART OK 62 84 64 84 / 60 40 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 88 66 88 / 40 30 50 30
GAGE OK 58 80 62 84 / 40 30 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 57 75 62 83 / 70 30 20 30
DURANT OK 67 82 63 84 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/84
000
FXUS64 KOUN 231741
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION... SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE OVER NCNTRL OK AT MIDDAY. TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE AT KPNC FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH.
MORE TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO PARTS OF SW OK/N TX AND WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THOSE SITES. MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO CENTRAL OK LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
COMPLEX SITUATION THIS MORNING EQUATES TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IN TIMING OF EVENTS. WHAT IS
PROBABLE...HOWEVER...IS TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OK. EXPECT +TSRAGR TO
AFFECT KOKC AND POSSIBLY KOUN EARLY THIS MORNING. AS LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING...TSRA SHOULD SUBSIDE. EXPECT
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR BY AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING IFR
CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY IN
W OK AND KSPS AREAS. SOME +TSRA ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND S/SW OF KCSM...KLAW...KHBR...AND KSPS. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED MOSTLY ON CUE THIS MORNING...IN AN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS AREA...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE THERE. A FEW OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE ATTENDANT RISKS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...CORRESPONDING TO THE CURRENT
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
FLOAT AROUND IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A STRENGTHENING CAP REDUCES THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO
FORM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY STORMY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DETAILS THAT FAR OUT
ARE RATHER SKETCHY...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS SEEM PROBABLE ONE OR
BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 62 76 65 / 50 50 40 40
HOBART OK 83 63 84 66 / 30 60 40 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 69 87 68 / 20 50 30 50
GAGE OK 77 59 82 64 / 30 40 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 78 57 76 64 / 30 30 40 30
DURANT OK 84 68 81 65 / 40 40 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
000
FXUS64 KOUN 231128
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
COMPLEX SITUATION THIS MORNING EQUATES TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IN TIMING OF EVENTS. WHAT IS
PROBABLE...HOWEVER...IS TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OK. EXPECT +TSRAGR TO
AFFECT KOKC AND POSSIBLY KOUN EARLY THIS MORNING. AS LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING...TSRA SHOULD SUBSIDE. EXPECT
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR BY AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING IFR
CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY IN
W OK AND KSPS AREAS. SOME +TSRA ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND S/SW OF KCSM...KLAW...KHBR...AND KSPS. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED MOSTLY ON CUE THIS MORNING...IN AN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS AREA...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE THERE. A FEW OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE ATTENDANT RISKS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...CORRESPONDING TO THE CURRENT
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
FLOAT AROUND IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A STRENGTHENING CAP REDUCES THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO
FORM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY STORMY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DETAILS THAT FAR OUT
ARE RATHER SKETCHY...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS SEEM PROBABLE ONE OR
BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 62 76 65 / 50 50 40 40
HOBART OK 83 63 84 66 / 30 60 40 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 69 87 68 / 20 50 30 50
GAGE OK 77 59 82 64 / 30 40 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 78 57 76 64 / 30 30 40 30
DURANT OK 84 68 81 65 / 40 40 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
000
FXUS64 KOUN 230938
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED MOSTLY ON CUE THIS MORNING...IN AN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS AREA...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE THERE. A FEW OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE ATTENDANT RISKS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...CORRESPONDING TO THE CURRENT
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
FLOAT AROUND IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A STRENGTHENING CAP REDUCES THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO
FORM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY STORMY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DETAILS THAT FAR OUT
ARE RATHER SKETCHY...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS SEEM PROBABLE ONE OR
BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 62 76 65 / 50 50 40 40
HOBART OK 83 63 84 66 / 30 60 40 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 69 87 68 / 20 50 30 50
GAGE OK 77 59 82 64 / 30 40 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 78 57 76 64 / 30 30 40 30
DURANT OK 84 68 81 65 / 40 40 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
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