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000
FXUS64 KOUN 312338
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
area through the day on Wednesday with the highest chances in
parts of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. With the
scattered nature and uncertainty of some timing, some TAF sites
don`t have a mention or a limited mention of rain/storms.
otherwise, frontal boundary across the area may move a little so
wind direction could be variable at some TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Most of the convection associated with an outflow boundary, has
moved into North Texas this afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface cold
front/boundary has become better defined this afternoon. This
feature may help with the development of widely scattered showers
and storms later this afternoon into the early evening. Brief
heavy rainfall and gusty winds should be the main impacts.

Other thunderstorms are developing on an outflow boundary from
near Abilene to south of Lubbock. It`s possible that storms over
western Texas may organize by late evening and move into
western parts of the forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain rather high through
at least Thursday, especially across southern Oklahoma. Storms
have been very efficient rain producer this morning and afternoon
and this should continue through late week.

By early this weekend, most areas will see dry weather with near
average temperatures for early June.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  76  62  77 /  50  70  40  40
Hobart OK         63  77  61  78 /  60  50  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  64  78  62  77 /  70  70  50  50
Gage OK           59  76  56  78 /  40  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     62  77  60  79 /  40  40  20  20
Durant OK         67  78  65  78 /  50  80  60  60

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ041-045>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ086>090.

&&

$$

30/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 311158
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
658 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 31/12Z taf discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, a very low confidence aviation forecast
through the taf period. Forecast will be highly dependent on
evolution of ongoing showers and thunderstorms.

Expect a line of thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma to affect
KPNC this morning. Confidence was lower farther south near
KOKC/KOUN, so opted not to mention -TSRA for this line. However,
there is the possibility the west/northwest wind shift from the
storms could affect these sites.

Expect widespread -TSRA across central Oklahoma
(KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR), especially later this morning through the
afternoon. The highest probability will shift southward
(KLAW/KSPS) with time, but chances of -TSRA will remain even
across central sites through the overnight. Therefore, kept
prob30s through the period to account for this. Gusty and variable
winds will be possible in the vicinity of any storms.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The primary forecast concerns will be storm chances and heavy
rain potential today through tomorrow and the influences of the
upper-level low the latter half of the week.

A complex of strong to severe storms have entered northwest Oklahoma
early this morning. Scattered storms have begun to develop ahead of
this complex. Today`s forecast will be modulated by the progression
of these storms. The regeneration of storms along the outflow
boundary may continue storm propagation of the complex to the
east-southeast. During the day, expect even more widespread
showers and storms to develop in the vicinity and ahead of this
boundary due to diurnal heating and the associated increase of
instability. Severe weather threat will be mitigated some by
numerous storm mergers/interactions. Nevertheless, forecast
instability will be sufficient for severe hail in the most
intense cores. Severe wind gusts will also be a threat where there
is sufficient cold pool generation (i.e., in larger scale
complexes). Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a
hazard.

Any surface boundary/effective cold front is expected to only make
slow southward progress due to relatively weak and nearly boundary-
parallel flow aloft. Widespread showers and storms are expected to
continue into Wednesday with only a slight shift southward. The
severe weather threat appears lower tomorrow, but heavy rain and
localized flooding will continue to be a concern.

For Thursday through Friday, the main forecast uncertainty will
be the impacts of the upper level low in Texas. The 31/00Z GFS and
ECMWF are in agreement that there will be a tight north to south
gradient of precipitation/cloud cover across the region. Elevated
instability decreases some on Thursday, so expect precipitation to
be rain with embedded thunder on the north side of the upper
level low. Precipitable waters remain elevated (>1.75"),
especially across southern Oklahoma and parts of western north
Texas. Therefore, the flooding threat may increase across the this
area.

On Saturday, a cold front is progged to pass by the region. This
should end any chance of precipitation by Sunday with
cooler/drier air across the area.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  63  76  62 /  80  70  70  40
Hobart OK         80  63  77  61 /  70  70  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  82  64  78  62 /  50  70  70  50
Gage OK           79  59  76  56 /  60  60  30  20
Ponca City OK     79  62  77  60 /  70  70  50  20
Durant OK         83  67  78  65 /  40  70  70  60

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/10/10





000
FXUS64 KOUN 310119
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
819 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted precipitation chances this evening, through midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large 500mb trough continues to churn over the southern west
coast. Farther east, thunderstorms continue to fire along the
western high plains. Driven primarily by large scale ascent and
supported by the warm moisture laden air from the Rio Grande to
the southern plains, scattered storms began to fire along a weak
surface boundary, just barely analyzed at 00z north of the Permian
Basin to the Llano Estacado. The boundary was evident earlier on
visible sat, where more congested cumulus development formed
within the larger cu field. As has been the trend over the last
few days, guidance continues to struggle with this large, somewhat
weakly forced environment. However, at present time, focus looks
to be warranted on the cluster that continues to evolve off the
Caprock north of I-20/Midland/Big Spring, as well as the isolated
storms still on the Llano Estacado in the southern Texas Panhandle
northwest of Lubbock. Current thoughts are for this activity to
continue to slowly evolve east and northeastward into the
overnight hours, potentially reaching far western north Texas late
tonight.

Did not make any changes to the forecast after 31/06Z, as
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances still look to increase
through the morning.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0z TAF discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR ceilings expected through the taf period. Some
showers/storms could affect the area tonight but better chances
will be Tuesday. Activity will be scattered and timing is a bit
uncertain so difficult to know when/where to put in TAFS but do
mention PROB30s for part of the day Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers and storms may form during peak heating this afternoon,
otherwise partly cloudy and humid conditions will prevail into the
evening. A stronger southerly flow has returned to the High Plains
and near surface moisture is improving somewhat. Most models
develop convection during the afternoon over the high terrain of
West Texas. Scattered storms may reach western Oklahoma and
western north Texas during the mid to late evening hours with
perhaps a better chance over southwest Oklahoma and northern
Texas.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
by at least Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly
across northern Oklahoma. The front will continue to push slowly
southward Tuesday night into Wednesday with a continued chance
for scattered to widespread showers and storms. Heavy rainfall
and associated flooding will be a concern, especially Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday.

An upper low/trough over the Desert Southwest will move slowly
east Wednesday through Thursday before becoming nearly stationary
over South Texas by Friday/Saturday. Therefore, thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday for mainly southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  81  63  77 /  30  70  70  60
Hobart OK         66  82  62  78 /  40  70  70  50
Wichita Falls TX  67  83  64  80 /  40  50  70  60
Gage OK           64  79  59  75 /  30  60  70  40
Ponca City OK     65  80  61  76 /  30  60  70  50
Durant OK         67  83  66  79 /  30  50  70  70

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301748
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1248 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain/develop
in advance of a mid-level trough that is located over
eastern Oklahoma. Heating and a rather moist air mass will
result in low clouds (CU) with isolated showers/storms possible.
Late this afternoon and evening, storms may move into far western
Oklahoma and western north Texas, but the coverage of storms is
uncertain. Perhaps the best chance for evening thunderstorms will
be across southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas in and around
HBR/LAW/SPS.


For now will not mention storms, but MVFR ceilings
should develop during the overnight hours. A cold front will
approach northern Oklahoma during the late morning which will
result in an increase in storms.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1105 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

UPDATE...
Morning update follows.

DISCUSSION...
Overall, lowered probabilities for rain this afternoon given lack
of forcing and much more stable conditions. However, cannot rule
out showers and a few storms near outflow boundaries and
differential heating boundaries this afternoon. Primary focus for
any organized storms will likely still be dryline well to our west
and any storms that can get going could move into western parts of
Oklahoma and perhaps western north Texas this evening before
dissipating. If any storms occur today, small hail and heavy rain
will be the main concerns.

Temperatures and dewpoints will modified based on current
observations and anticipate cloud cover but not significant
changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Rain and thunder will depart southeast OK this morning.
Thunderstorms are again expected in southwest OK or adjacent parts
of TX this evening. Scattered MVFR ceilings and fog may form in
part of central OK after 310600 in clear areas that received
rainfall today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The large area of rain over southern Oklahoma is expected to
continue to drift east and dissipate this morning. This afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to once again form across the Texas
panhandle in association with the dryline and move slowly east or
southeast in weak mid-level flow. These could affect southwest
Oklahoma to a lesser extent than those from yesterday. The main
event for the weak will be the front and pre-frontal rain expected
later Tuesday into Tuesday night as very moist air impinges upon
the front. The front is forecast to remain progressive across the
Red River, but any slowing could lead to flooding rainfalls in
areas that have had recent heavy rainfalls. For now, we`ll hold
off from issuing a flood watch until QPF trends become clearer.
Later in the week a relatively weak upper low drifting east to
west across Texas will bring lower, but persistent chances for
rain to southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas while
areas to the north should be rain-free in a drier and milder
airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  81  63  77 /  30  70  70  60
Hobart OK         65  82  62  78 /  40  70  70  50
Wichita Falls TX  66  83  64  80 /  40  50  70  50
Gage OK           62  79  59  75 /  30  60  60  40
Ponca City OK     65  80  61  76 /  30  60  60  60
Durant OK         67  83  66  79 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301605 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1105 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Morning update follows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall, lowered probabilities for rain this afternoon given lack
of forcing and much more stable conditions. However, cannot rule
out showers and a few storms near outflow boundaries and
differential heating boundaries this afternoon. Primary focus for
any organized storms will likely still be dryline well to our west
and any storms that can get going could move into western parts of
Oklahoma and perhaps western north Texas this evening before
dissipating. If any storms occur today, small hail and heavy rain
will be the main concerns.

Temperatures and dewpoints will modified based on current
observations and anticipate cloud cover but not significant
changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Rain and thunder will depart southeast OK this morning.
Thunderstorms are again expected in southwest OK or adjacent parts
of TX this evening. Scattered MVFR ceilings and fog may form in
part of central OK after 310600 in clear areas that received
rainfall today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The large area of rain over southern Oklahoma is expected to
continue to drift east and dissipate this morning. This afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to once again form across the Texas
panhandle in association with the dryline and move slowly east or
southeast in weak mid-level flow. These could affect southwest
Oklahoma to a lesser extent than those from yesterday. The main
event for the weak will be the front and pre-frontal rain expected
later Tuesday into Tuesday night as very moist air impinges upon
the front. The front is forecast to remain progressive across the
Red River, but any slowing could lead to flooding rainfalls in
areas that have had recent heavy rainfalls. For now, we`ll hold
off from issuing a flood watch until QPF trends become clearer.
Later in the week a relatively weak upper low drifting east to
west across Texas will bring lower, but persistent chances for
rain to southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas while
areas to the north should be rain-free in a drier and milder
airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  83  65  81  63 /  30  30  70  70
Hobart OK         85  65  82  62 /  30  40  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  86  66  83  64 /  20  40  50  70
Gage OK           85  62  79  59 /  30  30  60  60
Ponca City OK     83  65  80  61 /  40  30  60  60
Durant OK         84  67  83  66 /  30  30  50  70

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/06





000
FXUS64 KOUN 301138
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Rain and thunder will depart southeast OK this morning.
Thunderstorms are again expected in southwest OK or adjacent parts
of TX this evening. Scattered MVFR ceilings and fog may form in
part of central OK after 310600 in clear areas that received
rainfall today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The large area of rain over southern Oklahoma is expected to
continue to drift east and dissipate this morning. This afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to once again form across the Texas
panhandle in association with the dryline and move slowly east or
southeast in weak mid-level flow. These could affect southwest
Oklahoma to a lesser extent than those from yesterday. The main
event for the weak will be the front and pre-frontal rain expected
later Tuesday into Tuesday night as very moist air impinges upon
the front. The front is forecast to remain progressive across the
Red River, but any slowing could lead to flooding rainfalls in
areas that have had recent heavy rainfalls. For now, we`ll hold
off from issuing a flood watch until QPF trends become clearer.
Later in the week a relatively weak upper low drifting east to
west across Texas will bring lower, but persistent chances for
rain to southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas while
areas to the north should be rain-free in a drier and milder
airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  83  65  81  63 /  40  30  70  70
Hobart OK         84  65  82  62 /  30  40  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  86  66  83  64 /  20  40  50  70
Gage OK           84  62  79  59 /  30  30  60  60
Ponca City OK     83  65  80  61 /  30  30  60  60
Durant OK         84  67  83  66 /  80  30  50  70

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 292052
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
352 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Complex convective forecast continues with little help from any
model consistency or model agreement. Main area for convective
impacts first period will be far western and southwest parts of
Oklahoma and western north Texas as storms over Texas Panhandle
tries to build east and southeast near edge of West Texas
instability axis. Other areas of potential concentration will be
south-central and southeast Oklahoma where slightly better
moisture resides near weak outflow boundary. An outflow boundary
from northern Oklahoma convection will also move slowly south
toward the I-40 corridor of central Oklahoma and could be a focus
for at least isolated thunderstorms. Majority of heavy rain will
likely be west of the body of Oklahoma and western north Texas but
eventual eastward progression of any MCS may affect southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight. At this point we are
not issuing a flood watch but slow moving storms tonight will
yield the threat for heavy rain.

Wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday before drier
and cooler air filters in behind seasonably strong cold front.
Convection Tuesday and Wednesday associated with this front will
likely yield the greater threat for widespread heavy rain and need
for flood watches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  81  64  81 /  30  40  30  60
Hobart OK         64  83  65  82 /  50  40  40  60
Wichita Falls TX  64  84  66  83 /  60  40  40  50
Gage OK           60  83  62  80 /  40  30  40  70
Ponca City OK     63  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  60
Durant OK         66  84  67  83 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 291140
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Showers over northwest Oklahoma will continue to drift southeast
and may develop some thunder later this morning. Later this
afternoon, thunderstorms on the dryline in Texas are expected to
enter west central or southwest Oklahoma and drift southeast over
night. mvfr conditions are generally expected over much of western
and central Oklahoma. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be
southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The morning`s forecast is dominated by the north Texas complex of
thunderstorms. These are expected to slowly drift east/southeast
and mostly dissipate later this morning. models are very disparate
regarding location of rain and thunderstorms later today. while
the deep moisture and dryline are givens, the impact of upslope
boundary layer flow and a weak upper wave makes it difficult to
place new initiation. the HRRR and nam indicate that a complex of
thunderstorms will begin in the eastern oklahoma and texas
panhandles and move through the western half of Oklahoma later
today. These would move into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
probably join with other storms moving east from the dryline in
the central or southern Texas panhandle. Depending on storm
location/movement some parts of north Texas could get heavy
rainfall again Sunday night. Confidence is too low presently for a
flood watch. Uncertainty is also high for Monday night and Tuesday
morning when another weak upper wave is expected to pass through
a similarly very wet airmass. Some enhancement has been made to
pops in southwest Oklahoma and nearby Texas for another complex
that may move off the dryline to the west of Oklahoma. By later
Tuesday into early Wednesday there is still fair agreement on a
front moving slowly through Oklahoma and bringing widespread rain
and thunderstorms. The front should clear the Red River Wednesday
night and bring somewhat drier and milder air for the rest of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  64  82  65 /  50  30  40  30
Hobart OK         83  63  82  65 /  50  50  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  84  64  84  66 /  50  60  40  30
Gage OK           81  60  82  63 /  60  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     83  63  82  65 /  40  30  30  20
Durant OK         85  66  83  67 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 290436 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Tricky aviation forecast ahead. Expect VFR conditions to prevail,
at least through the morning hours for most sites. Scattered thunderstorms
will continue across western north Texas and slowly lift northward
into far southwestern Oklahoma through the evening. In the early
morning, some light fog may develop across portions of central and
northwestern Oklahoma, impacting KOKC/KOUN/KGAG/KWWR. At the same
time, expect MVFR ceilings to gradually increase from the
northwest, with scattered thunderstorm chances increasing through
the morning into the afternoon across much of the region.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 728 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Made some minor adjustments to POPS tonight and tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION...
Convection has started a bit earlier than most of the Hi Res
models have, so we may see some isolated rain and thunder in
western north Texas before sunset. Overnight and into tomorrow
morning, confidence is low for showers and storms, especially as
Hi Res models show little to no convection. Kept some 30s in the
northwest where the NAM is more aggressive with precipitation.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the
first six hours of the period. Increasing cloud cover will develop
overnight, from west to east across the region, as a weak upper
level low pressure system moves in from the west. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop through the morning hours; most likely
impacting airfields across portions of western Oklahoma and as far
south as the Red River. In response, ceilings and visibility will
decrease, most likely to MVFR, with periods of IFR possible.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain potential will be the main impact the next several
days...culminating Tuesday into Wednesday with strong frontal
intrusion and cooler/drier weather thereafter. Two areas to watch
this evening and tonight will be potential for storms to form well
to our southwest and on the high plains of eastern New Mexico.
Both areas...or remnants of...could affect western north Texas and
Oklahoma overnight and Sunday. With moisture return and low
amplitude southern stream s/wvs tomorrow into Monday/Tuesday,
relatively high pops will continue with in the forecast with
daily thunderstorm/MCS activity likely. there are fairly diverse
solutions on details of timing and location of this thunderstorm
activity. this diversity will preclude a flood watch with this
issuance but highest rainfall amounts appear to be most likely
over the southern portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
This will be approached each shift and when better consistency in
model output and confidence increases, watches may be issued. with
all of that being said...most widespread and heavy rainfall will
likely be seen Tuesday into Wednesday with slow frontal passage.
Severe weather likely accompany this activity.

Severe weather potential appears to be increasing for Sunday and
Sunday night with possible MCS intrusion across mainly western
Oklahoma. Although some guidance suggest an early timing,
westward extension of dryline and need for diurnal heating to help
with initiation, current thinking is that it will be mainly an
evening and overnight event for much of the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  83  65  82 /  20  40  40  40
Hobart OK         65  84  64  83 /  20  50  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  67  86  65  84 /  30  40  60  30
Gage OK           61  82  61  82 /  20  60  40  30
Ponca City OK     63  83  64  81 /  10  50  30  50
Durant OK         68  85  67  83 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/04/04





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