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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211755 AAC
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 3PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DID
TAKE BLAINE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY...WHERE THE
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211755 AAC
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 3PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DID
TAKE BLAINE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY...WHERE THE
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211625 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211625 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211605 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211605 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211002
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211002
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND
06Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR BY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
MENTION OF DRIZZLE NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND
06Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR BY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
MENTION OF DRIZZLE NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202154
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT... ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AS SFC ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
RESPONSE... LOW/MID 40S DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO
SRN OK WITH THE LIFTING OF A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
CHANCES WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL FLIRT NEAR
FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ACROSS FAR NWRN OK... WITH A NARROW
WINDOW AROUND DAWN OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE. ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN BOUND H500 LOW... WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
RED RIVER BY THE MID AFTERNOON. INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN N TX LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT... ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON OF MODEST INSTABILITY... SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. INTO SAT...
THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE H500 SHORTWAVE
DIGGING FARTHER INTO NWRN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE... THIS
HAS SHIFTED THE PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN/THUNDER ON SATURDAY A TOUCH TO
THE EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TOTALS ACCORDINGLY... WITH STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS TEXOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW RAIN BANDS SET UP... LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... UP TO 2.50IN... ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGICALLY... THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD LIMIT HYDRO
ISSUES TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY.

DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONTINUING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING. TALK WITHIN THE WEATHER COMMUNITY
HAS RECENTLY POINTED TOWARD POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY (11/28). THE CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS ECMWF REMAINS WELL OUT OF PHASE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS. GIVEN THIS EXTREME
VARIABILITY... IT REMAINS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCK DOWN ON ANY SOLUTION.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A WAIT AND SEE MOMENT. PEOPLE SHOULD ALWAYS BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE WINTER SEASON... AND THEY
SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN DEALING WITH LONG RANGE
FORECASTS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  49  62 /  30  30  60  80
HOBART OK         39  55  45  61 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  63  53  64 /  10  10  80  90
GAGE OK           30  51  37  62 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     37  54  45  62 /  30  40  50  70
DURANT OK         51  64  56  63 /  40  40  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201736 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY... WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E/NE. OVERNIGHT...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR BY MORNING AS
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR -RA WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD... HOWEVER... WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         60  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           56  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         66  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201736 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY... WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E/NE. OVERNIGHT...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR BY MORNING AS
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR -RA WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD... HOWEVER... WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         60  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           56  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         66  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201151 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201151 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201033
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL GIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY ASCENT MOVES TO THE EAST
TOMORROW... THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A
SOLID BET FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTHEAST... BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  41  61  50 /   0  20  30  60
HOBART OK         58  37  57  44 /   0  10  10  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  46  65  54 /   0  10  20  70
GAGE OK           53  29  53  37 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  35  55  46 /   0  20  40  50
DURANT OK         65  50  65  55 /   0  40  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200505
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/14/14





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200505
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/14/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192306
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
506 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/14/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192051
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192051
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA HAS MOVED ACROSS ALL OF OUR OKLAHOMA TERMINALS, SHIFTING
SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH, WHILE OUR MOST SOUTHERN TERMINAL KSPS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S AFTER 00Z... MAINTAINING LIGHT EASTERLY SFC
WINDS ACROSS OUR TERMINALS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 18Z
SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWESTERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY WITH
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY... ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT VERY
DIFFERENT IN TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA... IT WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THEN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN... ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MODEL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN SHOWING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY... DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO DROP DROP BACK FROM VERY HIGH POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST EVEN ON DAY FOUR. THIS WAVE MOVES BY... BUT A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INDICATIONS OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  30  54  41 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         52  28  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  32  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           53  25  49  29 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  25  48  34 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         57  34  60  47 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04/67




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA HAS MOVED ACROSS ALL OF OUR OKLAHOMA TERMINALS, SHIFTING
SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH, WHILE OUR MOST SOUTHERN TERMINAL KSPS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S AFTER 00Z... MAINTAINING LIGHT EASTERLY SFC
WINDS ACROSS OUR TERMINALS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 18Z
SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWESTERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY WITH
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY... ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT VERY
DIFFERENT IN TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA... IT WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THEN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN... ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MODEL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN SHOWING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY... DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO DROP DROP BACK FROM VERY HIGH POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST EVEN ON DAY FOUR. THIS WAVE MOVES BY... BUT A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INDICATIONS OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  30  54  41 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         52  28  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  32  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           53  25  49  29 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  25  48  34 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         57  34  60  47 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04/67





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191140 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 18Z
SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWESTERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY WITH
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY... ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT VERY
DIFFERENT IN TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA... IT WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THEN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN... ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MODEL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN SHOWING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY... DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO DROP DROP BACK FROM VERY HIGH POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST EVEN ON DAY FOUR. THIS WAVE MOVES BY... BUT A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INDICATIONS OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  30  54  41 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         51  28  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  32  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           51  25  49  29 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  25  48  34 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         56  34  60  47 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191140 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 18Z
SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWESTERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY WITH
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY... ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT VERY
DIFFERENT IN TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA... IT WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THEN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN... ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MODEL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN SHOWING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY... DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO DROP DROP BACK FROM VERY HIGH POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST EVEN ON DAY FOUR. THIS WAVE MOVES BY... BUT A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INDICATIONS OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  30  54  41 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         51  28  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  32  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           51  25  49  29 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  25  48  34 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         56  34  60  47 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY... ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT VERY
DIFFERENT IN TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA... IT WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THEN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN... ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MODEL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN SHOWING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY... DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO DROP DROP BACK FROM VERY HIGH POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST EVEN ON DAY FOUR. THIS WAVE MOVES BY... BUT A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INDICATIONS OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  30  54  41 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         51  28  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  32  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           51  25  49  29 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  25  48  34 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         56  34  60  47 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY... ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT VERY
DIFFERENT IN TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA... IT WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DEVELOP BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THEN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN... ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MODEL HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN SHOWING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY... DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO DROP DROP BACK FROM VERY HIGH POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST EVEN ON DAY FOUR. THIS WAVE MOVES BY... BUT A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INDICATIONS OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  30  54  41 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         51  28  53  37 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  32  61  45 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           51  25  49  29 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  25  48  34 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         56  34  60  47 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190505
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE 00Z TAFS. STILL EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KT. A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  26  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  31  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           51  24  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  27  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  32  55  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190505
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE 00Z TAFS. STILL EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KT. A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         49  26  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  31  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           51  24  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  27  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  32  55  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SSW WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. A FEW CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
NW OK THIS EVENING...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  50  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         26  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  49  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  46  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182032
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND STALL IN PARTS OF NORTHERN TX. MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THU INTO FRI. THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE WAA TO DEVELOP AND THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO BE PULLED BACK NORTH INTO THE FA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FA THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO DIGGING AND MOVING ACROSS THE SW
U.S. LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA... FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NE PARTS OF THE FA WITH THIS WAVE
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
FA COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. RIGHT NOW HAVE A MENTION OF
A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE PRECIP MOVES EAST OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  50  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         26  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  49  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  46  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182032
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND STALL IN PARTS OF NORTHERN TX. MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THU INTO FRI. THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE WAA TO DEVELOP AND THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO BE PULLED BACK NORTH INTO THE FA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FA THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO DIGGING AND MOVING ACROSS THE SW
U.S. LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA... FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NE PARTS OF THE FA WITH THIS WAVE
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
FA COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE. RIGHT NOW HAVE A MENTION OF
A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE PRECIP MOVES EAST OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  50  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         26  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  55  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  49  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  46  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/25





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