Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KOUN 210111 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
811 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCREASE
THEM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND DECREASE THEM ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 10 PM
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOM AND NORTHERN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM NEAR CHILDRESS
TO ELDORADO. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE BIGGEST HAZARD...THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUGGEST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT
AT TIMES FOR NEXT HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO...THEY MOVE EAST INTO A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF WICHITA
FALLS AND LAWTON.

LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR ERICK TO WOODWARD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR. THIS LINE SHOULD
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
WEAKENING SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THESE AREAS
TOWARDS OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ONE SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES BETWEEN HOLLIS
AND QUANAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A LINE
OF STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. A FEW HAIL REPORTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW AS WELL.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z.

TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
02-10Z. ADDED MENTION AT MANY SITES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 12-21Z...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTER
FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
BE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  70  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  70  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ONE SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES BETWEEN HOLLIS
AND QUANAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A LINE
OF STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. A FEW HAIL REPORTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z.

TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
02-10Z. ADDED MENTION AT MANY SITES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 12-21Z...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTER
FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
BE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ONE SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES BETWEEN HOLLIS
AND QUANAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A LINE
OF STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. A FEW HAIL REPORTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z.

TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
02-10Z. ADDED MENTION AT MANY SITES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 12-21Z...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTER
FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
BE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201953
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTERFLOW
AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE
AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH CHANCES
DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201953
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTERFLOW
AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE
AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH CHANCES
DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
RA/TSRA...WHERE MVFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THE RA/TSRA
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SW OK AND KSPS TERMINALS NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS IN
EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 21Z AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
AMENDMENTS. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN TX PANHDL AFTER
21Z WHICH COULD AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
REDUCTION TO MVFR BUT MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z
MAINLY CNTRL OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
RA/TSRA...WHERE MVFR CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THE RA/TSRA
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SW OK AND KSPS TERMINALS NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS IN
EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 21Z AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
AMENDMENTS. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN TX PANHDL AFTER
21Z WHICH COULD AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION
REDUCTION TO MVFR BUT MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z
MAINLY CNTRL OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201537
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THAT OUR AFTERNOON POPS/QPF ARE TOO HIGH...WHILE THE NAM12
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS...SINCE IT IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO EXTREMES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FAIRLY BRISKLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...AND ARE ON TRACK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
IS A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. WE WILL MONITOR...AND ADJUST IF NEEDED
LATER.

NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST...BUT IF TRENDS
DIVERGE FROM THE FORECAST...ADJUSTMENTS WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201537
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THAT OUR AFTERNOON POPS/QPF ARE TOO HIGH...WHILE THE NAM12
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS...SINCE IT IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO EXTREMES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FAIRLY BRISKLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...AND ARE ON TRACK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
IS A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. WE WILL MONITOR...AND ADJUST IF NEEDED
LATER.

NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST...BUT IF TRENDS
DIVERGE FROM THE FORECAST...ADJUSTMENTS WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201131
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200834
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200834
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  60  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  50  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  50  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200352
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 10Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 02Z MONDAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS
EARLY AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. KSPS AND
KLAW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA 12-18Z. TSRA POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST AT THESE SITES 21-01Z...SO WILL KEEP VCTS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200352
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 10Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 02Z MONDAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS
EARLY AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. KSPS AND
KLAW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA 12-18Z. TSRA POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST AT THESE SITES 21-01Z...SO WILL KEEP VCTS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  59  75  59 /   0  10  60  60
HOBART OK         78  57  74  57 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  59  75  60 /  10  30  50  50
GAGE OK           79  57  77  56 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  79  59 /   0   0  50  60
DURANT OK         77  58  79  61 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  59  75  59 /   0  10  60  60
HOBART OK         78  57  74  57 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  59  75  60 /  10  30  50  50
GAGE OK           79  57  77  56 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  79  59 /   0   0  50  60
DURANT OK         77  58  79  61 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  75  59  77 /  10  60  60  50
HOBART OK         58  74  57  80 /  20  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  60  81 /  20  50  50  40
GAGE OK           58  77  56  78 /  20  40  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  79  59  77 /  10  50  60  50
DURANT OK         58  79  61  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  75  59  77 /  10  60  60  50
HOBART OK         58  74  57  80 /  20  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  60  81 /  20  50  50  40
GAGE OK           58  77  56  78 /  20  40  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  79  59  77 /  10  50  60  50
DURANT OK         58  79  61  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  75  59  77 /  10  60  60  50
HOBART OK         58  74  57  80 /  20  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  60  81 /  20  50  50  40
GAGE OK           58  77  56  78 /  20  40  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  79  59  77 /  10  50  60  50
DURANT OK         58  79  61  77 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191753
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...WILL KEEP TERMINALS VFR MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 09Z- 12Z AND WILL LEAVE THEM PROB30. MVFR CIGS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS
TERMINALS TOWARD/AFTER 12Z. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191753
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAFS...WILL KEEP TERMINALS VFR MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 09Z- 12Z AND WILL LEAVE THEM PROB30. MVFR CIGS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS
TERMINALS TOWARD/AFTER 12Z. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191538
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TODAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST. THESE SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE...AND OTHER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. MODELS KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING IN THE FAR WEST.

AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCTED UNTIL 201200. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 191538
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TODAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST. THESE SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE...AND OTHER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. MODELS KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE FIRST CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING IN THE FAR WEST.

AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCTED UNTIL 201200. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  50  60
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /  10  20  50  50
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  40  60
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 191055
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCTED UNTIL 201200. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190927
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WHEN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH MOST LEVELS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES FOR FEWER BUT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH, BEING SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY ALSO. A WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATER MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A
DRYLINE WILL EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MAY ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THURSDAY TO BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE TIME WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON
FRIDAY THAT WILL TAKE THE HEAT OF MID-WEEK BACK TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  57  76  61 /   0  10  40  50
HOBART OK         78  57  76  58 /   0  20  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  58  78  61 /   0  20  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  79  54 /  10  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
DURANT OK         77  57  79  62 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 01Z.

MBS

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 01Z.

MBS

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 190235 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182010
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         53  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/AUSTIN




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181659
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED OUT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  78  59  77 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         51  78  57  78 /   0  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  79  59  82 /   0  10  30  40
GAGE OK           52  78  56  79 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     52  80  60  78 /   0   0  20  50
DURANT OK         52  78  58  78 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/14





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181659
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS CLEARED OUT...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  78  59  77 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         51  78  57  78 /   0  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  79  59  82 /   0  10  30  40
GAGE OK           52  78  56  79 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     52  80  60  78 /   0   0  20  50
DURANT OK         52  78  58  78 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23/14




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE RETURNING TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME...WHILE PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER SPREADS NORTH.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF MVFR FOG IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKALHOMA. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180830
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180830
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
MID-WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
HOBART OK         70  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  53  79  59 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           70  52  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         74  52  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 17Z.

WEST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KHBR...KCSM...AND KGAG...BELIEVE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z. KSPS SHOULD STAY MVFR. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z.

EAST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KOKC...KLAW...KOUN...AND KPNC...
GENERALLY THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR THROUGH 15Z. DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 17Z.

WEST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KHBR...KCSM...AND KGAG...BELIEVE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z. KSPS SHOULD STAY MVFR. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z.

EAST OF KWWR-KSPS...INCLUDING KOKC...KLAW...KOUN...AND KPNC...
GENERALLY THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY OCCUR THROUGH 15Z. DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180252 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -RA WILL AFFECT KOKC
AND KOUN THROUGH 0130Z.

OTHER SITES...INCLUDING KSPS...KLAW...KHBR...KCSM...
KWWR...AND KGAG...GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 09Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR KLAW...KWWR...AND KGAG. DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR KSPS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 14-16Z. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z. ANY -RA/-DZ WILL END
BY 04Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  73  53  76 /  20  10  10   0
HOBART OK         45  73  52  75 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  76  55  77 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180252 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AS UPR WAVE CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -RA WILL AFFECT KOKC
AND KOUN THROUGH 0130Z.

OTHER SITES...INCLUDING KSPS...KLAW...KHBR...KCSM...
KWWR...AND KGAG...GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 09Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR KLAW...KWWR...AND KGAG. DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
NEAR KSPS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 14-16Z. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18Z. ANY -RA/-DZ WILL END
BY 04Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS STILL VERY LIGHT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

AFTER A QUIET DAY TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AGAIN. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IS
IMPROBABLE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. THE SETUP
ON THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES GREATLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  73  53  76 /  20  10  10   0
HOBART OK         45  73  52  75 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  76  55  77 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           39  73  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  73  51  77 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         52  74  53  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities