000
FXUS64 KOUN 190245 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK EARLIER DUE TO
AN ONGOING HEATBURST IN THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
STAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A VERY BUSY FEW DAYS
WRT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE
SCALE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
FOR TODAY... CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD THINGS IN CHECK... BUT
MIDDAY SOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY MINIMAL CAP STILL
REMAINING. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS... SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARIES RESIDING FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MAIN BODY OF THE STATE WITH AFTN STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MORE LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. AGAIN INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES DOWN AND KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE RISK ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE PARTICULARS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE.
OTHERWISE VERY WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE SFC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 66 87 / 70 30 50 50
HOBART OK 65 95 63 94 / 60 20 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 98 67 97 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 61 88 56 84 / 20 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 70 89 64 84 / 60 50 60 50
DURANT OK 69 88 71 88 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>007-
010>012-015.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181925
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A VERY BUSY FEW DAYS
WRT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE
SCALE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
FOR TODAY... CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD THINGS IN CHECK... BUT
MIDDAY SOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY MINIMAL CAP STILL
REMAINING. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS... SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARIES RESIDING FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MAIN BODY OF THE STATE WITH AFTN STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MORE LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. AGAIN INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES DOWN AND KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE RISK ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE PARTICULARS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE.
OTHERWISE VERY WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE SFC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 66 87 / 30 30 50 50
HOBART OK 69 95 63 94 / 30 20 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 98 67 97 / 30 20 20 20
GAGE OK 61 88 56 84 / 30 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 70 89 64 84 / 30 50 60 50
DURANT OK 69 88 71 88 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/30
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181712
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AT MIDDAY WITH
STRONG... GUSTY S/SE SFC WINDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF TSRA
LATE AFTN INTO EVENING HOURS AT MOST SITES. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY 1 TO 4 MILES UNTIL LATE
MORNING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND A FEW COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE
EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 40
HOBART OK 98 66 97 67 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 68 98 70 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 95 60 92 59 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 70 89 67 / 20 30 50 60
DURANT OK 92 68 90 69 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181043
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY 1 TO 4 MILES UNTIL LATE
MORNING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND A FEW COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE
EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 40
HOBART OK 98 66 97 67 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 68 98 70 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 95 60 92 59 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 70 89 67 / 20 30 50 60
DURANT OK 92 68 90 69 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 180716
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
216 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS THE FIRST OF AT LEAST 3 DAYS OF EXPECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AND
WAIT FOR THE APPROACH OF A DRYLINE TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH ALONG THE DRYLINE. AT
LEAST IN A FEW AREAS, THE CAP SHOULD BE OVERCOME RESULTING IN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
EVENING A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER TODAY
WHEN THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER SUNDAY. DRYLINE MIXING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR EARLIER AND A FRONT WILL BE PRESSING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, A TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHWEST OR WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE. BY THE TIME OF
THUNDERSTORM RE-INITIATION, THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EXCLUDE THE WESTERN QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA, BUT CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE IN AREAS OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND HIGH SHEAR. TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE
EVENING WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW AND STILL BE DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
MONDAY, BUT THE LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WHEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. EVEN A GOOD CHANCE
REMAINS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK A
CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MODERATELY MOIST
AIRMASS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 40
HOBART OK 98 66 97 67 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 68 98 70 / 20 20 20 20
GAGE OK 95 60 92 59 / 20 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 70 89 67 / 20 30 50 60
DURANT OK 92 68 90 69 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 172327
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION... BAND OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM NW TO SE
OK PERSISTS EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM
THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND SE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
LATER TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY AND INCREASES. TSTM
ACTIVITY IN TX EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF KSPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT-TERM... WILL WATCH FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ARCHER COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON... AND CU FIELD HAS BEEN
INCREASING NW OF BRECKENRIDGE TX AND SOUTH OF COLEMAN TX. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED WORDING AND SUB-20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LATER
TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT AREAS OF FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE LOOK TO HAVE A HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE
TOMORROW... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH BUT KEEP AT LEAST 20S
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WE THEN RELOAD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE BROAD UPPER TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ON EACH OF THESE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 91 68 90 / 10 20 20 30
HOBART OK 68 98 66 97 / 10 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 100 68 98 / 10 20 20 20
GAGE OK 65 95 60 92 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 88 70 89 / 10 20 30 50
DURANT OK 69 92 68 90 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171948
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT-TERM... WILL WATCH FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ARCHER COUNTY AREA THIS AFTERNOON... AND CU FIELD HAS BEEN
INCREASING NW OF BRECKENRIDGE TX AND SOUTH OF COLEMAN TX. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED WORDING AND SUB-20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LATER
TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT AREAS OF FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE LOOK TO HAVE A HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE
TOMORROW... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH BUT KEEP AT LEAST 20S
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WE THEN RELOAD FOR ANOTHER
ROUND ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE BROAD UPPER TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ON EACH OF THESE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 91 68 90 / 10 20 20 30
HOBART OK 68 98 66 97 / 10 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 100 68 98 / 10 20 20 20
GAGE OK 65 95 60 92 / 10 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 88 70 89 / 10 20 30 50
DURANT OK 69 92 68 90 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171725
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDTIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KOKC AND KOUN TODAY. WIDESPREAD
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FOG
DISSIPATES SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP IN PARTS OF THE FA SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS IN AREA WHERE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY INCREASING IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. THE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN OR NEAR THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING SO HAVE KEPT POPS REALLY LOW
/AROUND 10 PERCENT/ BUT PUT A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORM/S IN THE
WX GRIDS. WILL HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 86 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 86 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 84 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 83 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171600 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FOG
DISSIPATES SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP IN PARTS OF THE FA SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS IN AREA WHERE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY INCREASING IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. THE STRONG SFC HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN OR NEAR THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING SO HAVE KEPT POPS REALLY LOW
/AROUND 10 PERCENT/ BUT PUT A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORM/S IN THE
WX GRIDS. WILL HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 86 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 86 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 84 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 83 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/26
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171116
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 88 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 89 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 83 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 82 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ005>008-
010>013-015-017>020-026.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 170845
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 88 68 98 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 70 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 89 65 95 60 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 83 67 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 82 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 170636
AFDOUN
DDHHMM
WRKAFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT A FEW SITES. LOWER CIGS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
INCREASE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...AS OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE INTO THE AREA. ALSO REMOVED ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS AS NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SMALL TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL FAVOR PATCHY
FOG...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 64 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 62 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 170309
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
INCREASE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...AS OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE INTO THE AREA. ALSO REMOVED ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS AS NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SMALL TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL FAVOR PATCHY
FOG...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 64 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 62 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/02
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162328 RRA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDTIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DICUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 63 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 60 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 62 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162328
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDTIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DICUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 63 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 60 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 62 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162032
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON STORMS AND SEVERE WX... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING IN FAR EAST/SE PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN
BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING AN IMPULSE MOVING NE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTN. THIS
MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO FRIDAY BUT WITH DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AND SOME CAPPING ISSUES WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STORMS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OR IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AFFECTING PARTS OF THE FA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE COULD ALSO BE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
ALTHOUGH IF THE SHORTWAVE IS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE COULD AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES A CONCERN. ON MONDAY... THE TRIPLE POINT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR OR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS...
AND TORNADOES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY.
THE SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT GO FAR AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS... PARTS OF THE FA COULD HIT TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SW OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.
SO TO SUM UP... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH SEVERE STORMS... POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT... SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND HOT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 83 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 63 88 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 91 70 99 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 60 89 65 95 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 62 83 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 66 82 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 161735
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS (NOW-18Z) AND MAXT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NE OK AND NW AR. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPS (MID 80S TO LOW 90S) GENERALLY WEST OF I35. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
LOW ACROSS SE OK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP IT BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. LOWERED TEMPS
EAST OF I35 A BIT WHERE STRATUS WILL LINGER AND INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS SE OK. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES MADE.
BARNES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OKC/OUN FOR
A FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF LOW MOVES ACROSS SOMEWHAT BETTER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS.
RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST WHERE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE EC MODEL INDICATES A LEAD
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN FAR WESTERN OK. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CHANCES RATHER SLIM.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONG CAP MAY
AGAIN LIMIT STORM DEVELOPING SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAYBE NORTH TEXAS.
BETTER LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MAY FAVOR MORE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA.
MONDAY MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN
OKLAHOMA...AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS PART OF THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 65 83 68 / 30 10 10 10
HOBART OK 83 65 88 66 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 67 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 83 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 75 64 83 69 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 77 67 82 68 / 80 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25/25
000
FXUS64 KOUN 161437 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS (NOW-18Z) AND MAXT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NE OK AND NW AR. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPS (MID 80S TO LOW 90S) GENERALLY WEST OF I35. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
LOW ACROSS SE OK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP IT BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. LOWERED TEMPS
EAST OF I35 A BIT WHERE STRATUS WILL LINGER AND INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS SE OK. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES MADE.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OKC/OUN FOR
A FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF LOW MOVES ACROSS SOMEWHAT BETTER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS.
RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST WHERE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE EC MODEL INDICATES A LEAD
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN FAR WESTERN OK. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CHANCES RATHER SLIM.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONG CAP MAY
AGAIN LIMIT STORM DEVELOPING SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAYBE NORTH TEXAS.
BETTER LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MAY FAVOR MORE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA.
MONDAY MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN
OKLAHOMA...AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS PART OF THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 65 83 68 / 30 10 10 10
HOBART OK 83 65 88 66 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 67 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 83 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 75 64 83 69 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 77 67 82 68 / 80 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/26
000
FXUS64 KOUN 161147
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OKC/OUN FOR
A FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF LOW MOVES ACROSS SOMEWHAT BETTER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS.
RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST WHERE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE EC MODEL INDICATES A LEAD
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN FAR WESTERN OK. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CHANCES RATHER SLIM.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONG CAP MAY
AGAIN LIMIT STORM DEVELOPING SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAYBE NORTH TEXAS.
BETTER LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MAY FAVOR MORE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA.
MONDAY MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN
OKLAHOMA...AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS PART OF THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 65 83 68 / 20 10 10 10
HOBART OK 84 65 88 66 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 67 91 68 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 85 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 77 64 83 69 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 80 67 82 68 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOUN 160909
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF LOW MOVES ACROSS SOMEWHAT BETTER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS.
RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST WHERE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE EC MODEL INDICATES A LEAD
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN FAR WESTERN OK. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CHANCES RATHER SLIM.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONG CAP MAY
AGAIN LIMIT STORM DEVELOPING SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAYBE NORTH TEXAS.
BETTER LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MAY FAVOR MORE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA.
MONDAY MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN
OKLAHOMA...AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS PART OF THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 65 83 68 / 20 10 10 10
HOBART OK 84 65 88 66 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 67 91 68 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 85 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 77 64 83 69 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 80 67 82 68 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/06
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