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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190437
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
FOLLOWING TRENDS... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA OR -TSRA
AT KPNC MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY... BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A
TEMPO. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE PRIOR EVENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER... WINDS SHOULD SETTLE AND
PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH... SLOWLY SHIFTING AND INCREASING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES S/SE ACROSS THE REGION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  56  69  44 /  50  70  40   0
HOBART OK         74  53  69  42 /  50  40  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  54  72  45 /  60  40  10   0
GAGE OK           72  47  61  38 /  50  50  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  54  68  42 /  50  70  60  10
DURANT OK         82  58  77  49 /  30  60  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182359 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR MANY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AS ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
AREA AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY RECOVERING THROUGH MID DAY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 182359 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR MANY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AS ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
AREA AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY RECOVERING THROUGH MID DAY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 182327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  44  66 /  60  30   0   0
HOBART OK         50  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  45  70 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           47  65  38  65 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  71  42  65 /  60  60  10   0
DURANT OK         58  77  49  70 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  44  66 /  60  30   0   0
HOBART OK         50  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  45  70 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           47  65  38  65 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  71  42  65 /  60  60  10   0
DURANT OK         58  77  49  70 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181931
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  44  66 /  60  30   0   0
HOBART OK         50  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  45  70 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           47  65  38  65 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  71  42  65 /  60  60  10   0
DURANT OK         58  77  49  70 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181651
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK6
1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH A ROUND OF
TSTMS TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OK.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181651
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK6
1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH A ROUND OF
TSTMS TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OK.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 181146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 21Z AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
AFTER 19Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR WITH BR/FG ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 21Z. THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
KCSM AND KHBR THROUGH 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KSPS AND KLAW
AS WELL THROUGH 15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION THINKING THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THESE SITES.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY TAF SITES AFTER 19Z. USED
VCTS/TEMPOS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCSM AND KHBR WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY
04Z.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  55  72  45 /  50  70  20  10
HOBART OK         79  50  72  42 /  50  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  53  76  46 /  50  30  10   0
GAGE OK           77  47  66  38 /  40  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  54  71  41 /  50  70  60  10
DURANT OK         76  58  76  49 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180919
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...JUST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY END BY 8 AM
IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING.

ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. DOUBT IT WILL GET TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CAPPING WILL BE RATHER
WEAK. WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THINK CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED RATHER EASILY IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
FRAME. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE
RAIN CHANCES. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS OCCUR REMAINS TRICKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE AIR WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
AND MULTICELLS. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES 25-45 KT AND VERY COLD
MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C COULD SUPPORT VERY
LARGE HAIL IN SOME CELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD. SOME DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS CAN
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH NOTICED THE LATEST
RAP13 INDICATED STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 5 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME WHICH MAY
INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGAIN OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ONE GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME FOG FORMED...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ON SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT
IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST MOST DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH WEATHER FEATURES...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEARBY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  55  72  45 /  50  70  20  10
HOBART OK         79  50  72  42 /  50  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  53  76  46 /  50  30  10   0
GAGE OK           77  47  66  38 /  40  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  54  71  41 /  50  70  60  10
DURANT OK         76  58  76  49 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 180338
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  20  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  79  53  76 /  20  40  20  10
GAGE OK           52  77  47  66 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  40  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172244
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  60  76  55 /  40  60  50  40
HOBART OK         71  56  77  50 /  60  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  79  53 /  60  50  40  20
GAGE OK           70  51  77  47 /  50  50  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  60  75  54 /  30  60  60  50
DURANT OK         76  62  76  58 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09




000
FXUS64 KOUN 172244
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THESE MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WEAKEN INTO A BROADER
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS BY NOON, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  60  76  55 /  40  60  50  40
HOBART OK         71  56  77  50 /  60  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  79  53 /  60  50  40  20
GAGE OK           70  51  77  47 /  50  50  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  60  75  54 /  30  60  60  50
DURANT OK         76  62  76  58 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/09/09





000
FXUS64 KOUN 171945
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  79  53  76 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           51  77  47  66 /  50  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  60  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  60  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 171945
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS REMAINS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SEVERAL RIPPLES HAVE MOVED AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR
SHOULD FAVOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWESTERN
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STILL...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
MOVE IN. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AIDED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME...THE LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWER THE SEVERE THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS
INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WEATHER. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  76  55  72 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         56  77  50  72 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  79  53  76 /  50  40  20  10
GAGE OK           51  77  47  66 /  50  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     60  75  54  71 /  60  60  50  40
DURANT OK         62  76  58  76 /  60  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST IS ON TAP...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST SLOWLY...AND WEAKEN
AS IT DOES SO. STILL...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDER FROM CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
MID AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TSRA/SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY SETTLE INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS THIS MORNING TO POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALSO
TWEAKED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER...AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE POST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIRMASS.
EXPECT ANY WARMING TODAY TO BE RATHER SLOW AS ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. THOUGH SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AS
AIRMASS MAY REMAIN WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION FOR SOME
TIME. STILL...IF STORMS CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST...AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  78  55  72 /  60  30  30  20
HOBART OK         55  80  51  71 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  81  54  76 /  50  20  20  10
GAGE OK           51  79  48  68 /  50  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  76  54  71 /  70  50  50  40
DURANT OK         62  79  59  77 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 171740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST IS ON TAP...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST SLOWLY...AND WEAKEN
AS IT DOES SO. STILL...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDER FROM CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
MID AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TSRA/SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY SETTLE INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS THIS MORNING TO POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALSO
TWEAKED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER...AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE POST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIRMASS.
EXPECT ANY WARMING TODAY TO BE RATHER SLOW AS ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. THOUGH SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AS
AIRMASS MAY REMAIN WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION FOR SOME
TIME. STILL...IF STORMS CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST...AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  78  55  72 /  60  30  30  20
HOBART OK         55  80  51  71 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  81  54  76 /  50  20  20  10
GAGE OK           51  79  48  68 /  50  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  76  54  71 /  70  50  50  40
DURANT OK         62  79  59  77 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171534
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS THIS MORNING TO POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALSO
TWEAKED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER...AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE POST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIRMASS.
EXPECT ANY WARMING TODAY TO BE RATHER SLOW AS ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. THOUGH SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AS
AIRMASS MAY REMAIN WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION FOR SOME
TIME. STILL...IF STORMS CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST...AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AUSTIN

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         73  55  80  51 /  90  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  58  81  54 /  60  50  20  20
GAGE OK           73  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         74  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171534
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS THIS MORNING TO POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALSO
TWEAKED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER...AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE POST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIRMASS.
EXPECT ANY WARMING TODAY TO BE RATHER SLOW AS ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. THOUGH SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AS
AIRMASS MAY REMAIN WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION FOR SOME
TIME. STILL...IF STORMS CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST...AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AUSTIN

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         73  55  80  51 /  90  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  58  81  54 /  60  50  20  20
GAGE OK           73  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         74  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 171534
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS THIS MORNING TO POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALSO
TWEAKED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER...AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE POST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIRMASS.
EXPECT ANY WARMING TODAY TO BE RATHER SLOW AS ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. THOUGH SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AS
AIRMASS MAY REMAIN WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION FOR SOME
TIME. STILL...IF STORMS CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST...AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AUSTIN

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         73  55  80  51 /  90  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  58  81  54 /  60  50  20  20
GAGE OK           73  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         74  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171058
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT SURE IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO
THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING REMAINS LOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

TSRA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 15Z AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES. IF TSRA
DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE...BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WIND AND MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP 12-15Z WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...LOCATIONS WILL BE
VFR BY 21Z.

ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA WILL OCCUR AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z ACROSS THE AREA. PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN REMAINS
VERY CHALLENGING.

ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY FORM AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE AREA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         75  55  80  51 /  60  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  58  81  54 /  50  50  20  20
GAGE OK           74  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         77  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 171058
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT SURE IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO
THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING REMAINS LOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

TSRA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 15Z AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES. IF TSRA
DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE...BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WIND AND MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP 12-15Z WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...LOCATIONS WILL BE
VFR BY 21Z.

ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA WILL OCCUR AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z ACROSS THE AREA. PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN REMAINS
VERY CHALLENGING.

ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY FORM AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE AREA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         75  55  80  51 /  60  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  58  81  54 /  50  50  20  20
GAGE OK           74  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         77  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 170700
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         75  55  80  51 /  60  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  58  81  54 /  50  50  20  20
GAGE OK           74  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         77  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 170700
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         75  55  80  51 /  60  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  58  81  54 /  50  50  20  20
GAGE OK           74  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         77  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170700
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THINK A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND REPORTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THERE AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO
HIGHER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. NOT SURE IF RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME AREAS MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE
AREAS THINKING THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AROUND. MOST MODELS FAVOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE DRY HOURS
THAN WET ONES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

LIKE YESTERDAY...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AS
THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND
WILL LIKELY SHEAR EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE SEVERE
STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THINK MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  59  78  55 /  50  60  30  30
HOBART OK         75  55  80  51 /  60  50  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  58  81  54 /  50  50  20  20
GAGE OK           74  51  79  48 /  50  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  58  76  54 /  50  70  50  50
DURANT OK         77  62  79  59 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 170355
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL CAUSE SPORADIC TSRA AND CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER OK/N TX
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
STORMS...SINCE THERE IS NO SINGLE FOCUS THAT WE CAN TRACK.
SO...THE TAFS ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
OUTPUT...WHICH IS ADMITTEDLY NOT VERY ACCURATE. THESE SAME MODELS
SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD SUNRISE...AND WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS BELIEVABLE...IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST. GULF STRATUS LAYERS TYPICALLY HAVE BASES AROUND 1500 FT
OVER MOST OF OK/N TX THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE IN
THE PRELIMINARY TAFS.

SOME IF CONDITIONS WARRANT...SOME CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST MAY BE
MADE BEFORE THE ACTUAL TAF ISSUANCE AT ABOUT 0530Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A WAKE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE COMPLEX...LEADING TO RATHER STRONG WINDS IN ELLIS
COUNTY. THESE WINDS MAY EXPAND OR CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH TIME. THEY ARE TOO SMALL-SCALE TO REPRESENT IN A REASONABLE
WAY IN THE FORECAST.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY OF THE EXISTING STORM
COMPLEX TO START SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...REACHING CENTRAL AND/OR
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DETAILS
REMAIN SKETCHY...BUT THE OVERALL CONCEPT IS CONSISTENT AND IS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT SITUATION.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN TRENDS AND
THEIR LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NEEDED TO
KEEP UP-TO-DATE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  60  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  90  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  40  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170355
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL CAUSE SPORADIC TSRA AND CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER OK/N TX
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
STORMS...SINCE THERE IS NO SINGLE FOCUS THAT WE CAN TRACK.
SO...THE TAFS ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
OUTPUT...WHICH IS ADMITTEDLY NOT VERY ACCURATE. THESE SAME MODELS
SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD SUNRISE...AND WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS BELIEVABLE...IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST. GULF STRATUS LAYERS TYPICALLY HAVE BASES AROUND 1500 FT
OVER MOST OF OK/N TX THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE IN
THE PRELIMINARY TAFS.

SOME IF CONDITIONS WARRANT...SOME CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST MAY BE
MADE BEFORE THE ACTUAL TAF ISSUANCE AT ABOUT 0530Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A WAKE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE COMPLEX...LEADING TO RATHER STRONG WINDS IN ELLIS
COUNTY. THESE WINDS MAY EXPAND OR CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH TIME. THEY ARE TOO SMALL-SCALE TO REPRESENT IN A REASONABLE
WAY IN THE FORECAST.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY OF THE EXISTING STORM
COMPLEX TO START SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...REACHING CENTRAL AND/OR
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DETAILS
REMAIN SKETCHY...BUT THE OVERALL CONCEPT IS CONSISTENT AND IS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT SITUATION.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN TRENDS AND
THEIR LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NEEDED TO
KEEP UP-TO-DATE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  60  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  90  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  40  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 170355
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL CAUSE SPORADIC TSRA AND CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER OK/N TX
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
STORMS...SINCE THERE IS NO SINGLE FOCUS THAT WE CAN TRACK.
SO...THE TAFS ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
OUTPUT...WHICH IS ADMITTEDLY NOT VERY ACCURATE. THESE SAME MODELS
SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD SUNRISE...AND WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS BELIEVABLE...IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST. GULF STRATUS LAYERS TYPICALLY HAVE BASES AROUND 1500 FT
OVER MOST OF OK/N TX THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE IN
THE PRELIMINARY TAFS.

SOME IF CONDITIONS WARRANT...SOME CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST MAY BE
MADE BEFORE THE ACTUAL TAF ISSUANCE AT ABOUT 0530Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A WAKE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE COMPLEX...LEADING TO RATHER STRONG WINDS IN ELLIS
COUNTY. THESE WINDS MAY EXPAND OR CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH TIME. THEY ARE TOO SMALL-SCALE TO REPRESENT IN A REASONABLE
WAY IN THE FORECAST.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY OF THE EXISTING STORM
COMPLEX TO START SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...REACHING CENTRAL AND/OR
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DETAILS
REMAIN SKETCHY...BUT THE OVERALL CONCEPT IS CONSISTENT AND IS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT SITUATION.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN TRENDS AND
THEIR LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NEEDED TO
KEEP UP-TO-DATE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  60  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  90  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  40  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 170355
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL CAUSE SPORADIC TSRA AND CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER OK/N TX
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TIME THE
STORMS...SINCE THERE IS NO SINGLE FOCUS THAT WE CAN TRACK.
SO...THE TAFS ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
OUTPUT...WHICH IS ADMITTEDLY NOT VERY ACCURATE. THESE SAME MODELS
SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD SUNRISE...AND WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS BELIEVABLE...IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST. GULF STRATUS LAYERS TYPICALLY HAVE BASES AROUND 1500 FT
OVER MOST OF OK/N TX THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE IN
THE PRELIMINARY TAFS.

SOME IF CONDITIONS WARRANT...SOME CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST MAY BE
MADE BEFORE THE ACTUAL TAF ISSUANCE AT ABOUT 0530Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A WAKE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE COMPLEX...LEADING TO RATHER STRONG WINDS IN ELLIS
COUNTY. THESE WINDS MAY EXPAND OR CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH TIME. THEY ARE TOO SMALL-SCALE TO REPRESENT IN A REASONABLE
WAY IN THE FORECAST.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY OF THE EXISTING STORM
COMPLEX TO START SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...REACHING CENTRAL AND/OR
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DETAILS
REMAIN SKETCHY...BUT THE OVERALL CONCEPT IS CONSISTENT AND IS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT SITUATION.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN TRENDS AND
THEIR LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NEEDED TO
KEEP UP-TO-DATE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  60  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  90  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  40  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 170224
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A WAKE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE COMPLEX...LEADING TO RATHER STRONG WINDS IN ELLIS
COUNTY. THESE WINDS MAY EXPAND OR CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH TIME. THEY ARE TOO SMALL-SCALE TO REPRESENT IN A REASONABLE
WAY IN THE FORECAST.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY OF THE EXISTING STORM
COMPLEX TO START SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME...REACHING CENTRAL AND/OR
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DETAILS
REMAIN SKETCHY...BUT THE OVERALL CONCEPT IS CONSISTENT AND IS
REASONABLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT SITUATION.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN TRENDS AND
THEIR LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NEEDED TO
KEEP UP-TO-DATE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  60  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  90  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  40  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 162326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 162034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 162034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 162034
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161724 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...16/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST... TRIED TO KEEP TAFS SIMPLE. GUIDANCE IS
HAVING A ROUGH TIME HANDLING CURRENT LOW/MID BKN/OVC CEILINGS.
FROM VIS SAT TREND... EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AND
POSSIBLY FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z AND AS LATE AS 06Z
IN SOME LOCATIONS. IMPACTS FROM -TSRA ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...
AS EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FORECAST
CHALLENGE WITH REGARDS TO AVIATION. IMPACTS FROM THIS AFTNS CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TIMING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN. AS FOR WINDS... EXPECT SOUTHWINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD... BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHER FORECAST FIELDS ARE ON
TRACK. PRESENTLY THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTH TEXAS AND ALSO PERSIST IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  75  58  75 /  50  60  60  40
HOBART OK         56  74  54  76 /  60  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  77  56  78 /  50  50  50  30
GAGE OK           52  75  50  75 /  70  50  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     58  76  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
DURANT OK         61  77  61  77 /  30  60  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161724 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...16/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST... TRIED TO KEEP TAFS SIMPLE. GUIDANCE IS
HAVING A ROUGH TIME HANDLING CURRENT LOW/MID BKN/OVC CEILINGS.
FROM VIS SAT TREND... EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AND
POSSIBLY FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z AND AS LATE AS 06Z
IN SOME LOCATIONS. IMPACTS FROM -TSRA ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...
AS EXPECTED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FORECAST
CHALLENGE WITH REGARDS TO AVIATION. IMPACTS FROM THIS AFTNS CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TIMING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN. AS FOR WINDS... EXPECT SOUTHWINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD... BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHER FORECAST FIELDS ARE ON
TRACK. PRESENTLY THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTH TEXAS AND ALSO PERSIST IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  75  58  75 /  50  60  60  40
HOBART OK         56  74  54  76 /  60  50  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  77  56  78 /  50  50  50  30
GAGE OK           52  75  50  75 /  70  50  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     58  76  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
DURANT OK         61  77  61  77 /  30  60  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161558
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHER FORECAST FIELDS ARE ON
TRACK. PRESENTLY THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTH TEXAS AND ALSO PERSIST IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 161558
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHER FORECAST FIELDS ARE ON
TRACK. PRESENTLY THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTH TEXAS AND ALSO PERSIST IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161152 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DISSIPATED
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CIGS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES INCLUDING KOKC THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE LATER THIS MORNING... AND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT MANY SITES
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET
UP AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES... TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY
TODAY THE FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT LOW
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD STORM CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH PRIMARY AREA OF
POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW... AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION FOR SATURDAY/S
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 161152 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DISSIPATED
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF
STRATUS WITH MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CIGS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES INCLUDING KOKC THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE LATER THIS MORNING... AND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT MANY SITES
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET
UP AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES... TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY
TODAY THE FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT LOW
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD STORM CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH PRIMARY AREA OF
POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW... AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION FOR SATURDAY/S
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 160932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET
UP AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES... TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY
TODAY THE FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT LOW
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD STORM CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH PRIMARY AREA OF
POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW... AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION FOR SATURDAY/S
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET
UP AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES... TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY
TODAY THE FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT LOW
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD STORM CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH PRIMARY AREA OF
POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW... AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION FOR SATURDAY/S
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 160932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET
UP AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES... TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY
TODAY THE FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT LOW
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD STORM CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH PRIMARY AREA OF
POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW... AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION FOR SATURDAY/S
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 160932
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET
UP AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES... TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY
TODAY THE FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT LOW
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD STORM CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH PRIMARY AREA OF
POTENTIAL WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW... AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION FOR SATURDAY/S
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  59  75  58 /  20  50  60  60
HOBART OK         76  56  74  54 /  40  60  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  59  77  56 /  40  50  50  50
GAGE OK           76  52  75  50 /  60  70  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  58  76  57 /  20  50  60  60
DURANT OK         78  61  77  61 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





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