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000
FXUS64 KOUN 222032
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN TO THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL AMOUNT
TO LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERS WITH A STROKE OF LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL ARRIVE
ABOUT MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  79  58  86 /  50  20   0   0
HOBART OK         57  81  57  88 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  59  89 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  79  52  89 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  78  56  85 /  50  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  76  56  84 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 222032
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN TO THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL AMOUNT
TO LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERS WITH A STROKE OF LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL ARRIVE
ABOUT MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  79  58  86 /  50  20   0   0
HOBART OK         57  81  57  88 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  59  89 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  79  52  89 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  78  56  85 /  50  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  76  56  84 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221745
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF OK
AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
TSRA...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE VERY LOW.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF THE EXPANSE OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHRA...AND THIS WILL PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE TAFS HIGHLIGHT THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR OCCURRENCE OF SHRA...BUT SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT ALL SITES...AND UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
AT KPNC. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AND ISOLATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  57  80  56 /  20  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  50  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  30  30  10   0
GAGE OK           74  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  78  55 /  20  50  20   0
DURANT OK         79  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221745
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF OK
AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
TSRA...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE VERY LOW.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF THE EXPANSE OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHRA...AND THIS WILL PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE TAFS HIGHLIGHT THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR OCCURRENCE OF SHRA...BUT SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT ALL SITES...AND UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
AT KPNC. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AND ISOLATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  57  80  56 /  20  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  50  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  30  30  10   0
GAGE OK           74  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  78  55 /  20  50  20   0
DURANT OK         79  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221520 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  57  80  56 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  40  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           78  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  78  55 /  10  50  20   0
DURANT OK         78  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23





000
FXUS64 KOUN 221126
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  57  80  56 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  40  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           78  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  78  55 /  10  50  20   0
DURANT OK         78  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  57  80  56 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  40  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           78  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  78  55 /  10  50  20   0
DURANT OK         78  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220508
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AT KPNC WHERE THE
PROBABILITY IS THE HIGHEST... ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW FAIR CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OK. THESE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH.

STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW AS A LEE
SFC LOW DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH
THE TROUGH LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THUR WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK. SW/W OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY ALSO BE FAVORED NEAR THE
LER OF AN UPPER JET EARLY WED EVENING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN REASONABLE (AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG)
THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND EXPECT A QUICK WARMUP AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS APPROACHING
RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL FINALLY COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND A FAIRLY STOUT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  79  57  85 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         57  80  57  85 /  50   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  81  58  86 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  78  55  86 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  77  56  84 /  50  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  75  57  82 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 220508
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AT KPNC WHERE THE
PROBABILITY IS THE HIGHEST... ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW FAIR CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OK. THESE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH.

STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW AS A LEE
SFC LOW DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH
THE TROUGH LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THUR WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK. SW/W OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY ALSO BE FAVORED NEAR THE
LER OF AN UPPER JET EARLY WED EVENING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN REASONABLE (AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG)
THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND EXPECT A QUICK WARMUP AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS APPROACHING
RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL FINALLY COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND A FAIRLY STOUT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  79  57  85 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         57  80  57  85 /  50   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  81  58  86 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           53  78  55  86 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  77  56  84 /  50  20   0   0
DURANT OK         56  75  57  82 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 212047
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW FAIR CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OK. THESE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH.

STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW AS A LEE
SFC LOW DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH
THE TROUGH LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THUR WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK. SW/W OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY ALSO BE FAVORED NEAR THE
LER OF AN UPPER JET EARLY WED EVENING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN REASONABLE (AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG)
THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND EXPECT A QUICK WARMUP AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS APPROACHING
RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL FINALLY COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND A FAIRLY STOUT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LOW CHC CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  80  58  79 /   0  10  40  10
HOBART OK         55  79  57  80 /   0  40  50   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  82  59  81 /   0  20  40  10
GAGE OK           54  76  53  78 /   0  40  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  81  59  77 /   0   0  50  20
DURANT OK         57  79  56  75 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT ONLY FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO
INCLUDE IT AT PNC. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS (VFR) THIS AFTERNOON AND CIRRUS LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  78  57  76 /   0  10  50  20
HOBART OK         56  76  57  79 /   0  30  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  81  58  80 /   0  10  30  20
GAGE OK           54  74  53  78 /   0  30  40   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  79  58  75 /   0  10  50  20
DURANT OK         58  79  55  74 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211536
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT FOG HAS CLEARED OUT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 211042
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND IF DOES OCCUR
COULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO NOT A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210904
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210904
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER... HRR SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN NW
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE... A WARM AND DRY DAY
TODAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
OVERALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FA... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONT TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS IN QUESTION
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND KEEPS IT MORE PROGRESSIVE SO THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORTER. WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE AND IN FACT HAS A PORTION OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A CUT
OFF LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. WENT
AHEAD WITH SOME POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MAINLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
HOBART OK         82  56  76  57 /   0   0  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           81  54  74  53 /   0   0  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     79  55  79  58 /   0   0  10  50
DURANT OK         81  58  79  55 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 210453 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STILL EXPECT A SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT HAS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AGAIN... THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CIGS TOO BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210155
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/26





000
FXUS64 KOUN 210155
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TONIGHT. WE CONT TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
DEELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE STILL NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/26




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202329 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 202329 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS SOME MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH THE CIGS ARE
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE NON-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN RECENT
VSBY/SKY CONDITION OBSERVATIONS AT HOBART AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 202020
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CU REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
THE MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NE TX AND
NORTHERN LA. LATER TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POOLING OF SFC MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
WED-THUR AS A MID TO UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN NEAR
SW NM IN WATER VAPOR...LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK. A WEAK UPPER JET WILL ALSO NOSE IN FROM THE SW WED.
INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH EARLY THUR FROM WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THURS...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW FOR FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THUR...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  81  57  78 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         58  82  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  83  57  80 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           54  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  58  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR BELOW 12 KT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE EXCEPTION FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR HBR...BUT ANY CIGS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
AROUND 050-070. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         58  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  82  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           53  79  53  76 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     54  78  54  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  57  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 201739
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR BELOW 12 KT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE EXCEPTION FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR HBR...BUT ANY CIGS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
AROUND 050-070. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  80  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         58  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  82  57  79 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           53  79  53  76 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     54  78  54  78 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         58  82  57  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201511
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THIS MORNINGS HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS FORMED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER PAYNE COUNTY
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
20/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND
AFTER 01-03Z. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AND WILL BE INCLUDED MOST SITES. DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201144 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND
AFTER 01-03Z. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AND WILL BE INCLUDED MOST SITES. DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 201144 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
20/12Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND
AFTER 01-03Z. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AND WILL BE INCLUDED MOST SITES. DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17





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