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000
FXUS64 KOUN 262331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN MID-CLOUD MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
SPEED MAX PROGRESSES THROUGH UPSTREAM SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE REGION. WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING/MOISTENING...
COULD SEE BANDS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND DURATION TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IF
IMPACTED DIRECTLY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER TERMINALS
06-14Z WITH NLY WINDS 15-20KT FOR SIX TO EIGHT HOURS POST FRONTAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION... AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 19Z SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRAND VALLEY... WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THIS EVENING... BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX... SLOWLY RELAXING
AND BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRI MORNING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY... WITH
LOWS FRI AM DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NRN OK... WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY DIPPING NEAR FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL
BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY... IN THE MID 60S IN OK TO THE LOW 70S
IN WRN N TX FOR TMRW.

EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND S/SW LL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. ONE CAVEAT
OF THIS INTO SUNDAY IS THE DIVERGENCE OF MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OFF THE SO-
CAL COAST THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THIS PLAYS A ROLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL... AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUE INTO THU AS
THIS H500 WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS NM AND W TX AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... THE
ECMWF PRIMARILY KEEPS MOST PRECIP SOUTH IN TX WHILE THE GFS LIFTS
PRECIP ACROSS OK... AND A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF... WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT ON THE GFS. GIVEN
DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AND THE ADVANCED TIME FRAME... WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  67  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  70  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  58  42  70 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         41  66  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 262331
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN MID-CLOUD MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
SPEED MAX PROGRESSES THROUGH UPSTREAM SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE REGION. WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING/MOISTENING...
COULD SEE BANDS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND DURATION TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IF
IMPACTED DIRECTLY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER TERMINALS
06-14Z WITH NLY WINDS 15-20KT FOR SIX TO EIGHT HOURS POST FRONTAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION... AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 19Z SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRAND VALLEY... WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THIS EVENING... BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX... SLOWLY RELAXING
AND BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRI MORNING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY... WITH
LOWS FRI AM DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NRN OK... WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY DIPPING NEAR FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL
BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY... IN THE MID 60S IN OK TO THE LOW 70S
IN WRN N TX FOR TMRW.

EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND S/SW LL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. ONE CAVEAT
OF THIS INTO SUNDAY IS THE DIVERGENCE OF MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OFF THE SO-
CAL COAST THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THIS PLAYS A ROLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL... AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUE INTO THU AS
THIS H500 WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS NM AND W TX AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... THE
ECMWF PRIMARILY KEEPS MOST PRECIP SOUTH IN TX WHILE THE GFS LIFTS
PRECIP ACROSS OK... AND A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF... WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT ON THE GFS. GIVEN
DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AND THE ADVANCED TIME FRAME... WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  67  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  70  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  58  42  70 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         41  66  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION... AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 19Z SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRAND VALLEY... WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THIS EVENING... BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX... SLOWLY RELAXING
AND BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRI MORNING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY... WITH
LOWS FRI AM DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NRN OK... WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY DIPPING NEAR FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL
BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY... IN THE MID 60S IN OK TO THE LOW 70S
IN WRN N TX FOR TMRW.

EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND S/SW LL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. ONE CAVEAT
OF THIS INTO SUNDAY IS THE DIVERGENCE OF MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OFF THE SO-
CAL COAST THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THIS PLAYS A ROLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL... AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUE INTO THU AS
THIS H500 WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS NM AND W TX AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... THE
ECMWF PRIMARILY KEEPS MOST PRECIP SOUTH IN TX WHILE THE GFS LIFTS
PRECIP ACROSS OK... AND A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF... WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT ON THE GFS. GIVEN
DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AND THE ADVANCED TIME FRAME... WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  67  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  70  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  58  42  70 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         41  66  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION... AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 19Z SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRAND VALLEY... WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THIS EVENING... BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX... SLOWLY RELAXING
AND BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRI MORNING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY... WITH
LOWS FRI AM DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NRN OK... WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY DIPPING NEAR FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL
BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY... IN THE MID 60S IN OK TO THE LOW 70S
IN WRN N TX FOR TMRW.

EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND S/SW LL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. ONE CAVEAT
OF THIS INTO SUNDAY IS THE DIVERGENCE OF MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OFF THE SO-
CAL COAST THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THIS PLAYS A ROLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL... AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUE INTO THU AS
THIS H500 WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS NM AND W TX AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... THE
ECMWF PRIMARILY KEEPS MOST PRECIP SOUTH IN TX WHILE THE GFS LIFTS
PRECIP ACROSS OK... AND A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF... WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT ON THE GFS. GIVEN
DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AND THE ADVANCED TIME FRAME... WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  67  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  70  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  58  42  70 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         41  66  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION... AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 19Z SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRAND VALLEY... WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THIS EVENING... BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX... SLOWLY RELAXING
AND BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRI MORNING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY... WITH
LOWS FRI AM DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NRN OK... WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY DIPPING NEAR FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL
BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY... IN THE MID 60S IN OK TO THE LOW 70S
IN WRN N TX FOR TMRW.

EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND S/SW LL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. ONE CAVEAT
OF THIS INTO SUNDAY IS THE DIVERGENCE OF MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OFF THE SO-
CAL COAST THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THIS PLAYS A ROLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL... AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUE INTO THU AS
THIS H500 WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS NM AND W TX AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... THE
ECMWF PRIMARILY KEEPS MOST PRECIP SOUTH IN TX WHILE THE GFS LIFTS
PRECIP ACROSS OK... AND A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF... WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT ON THE GFS. GIVEN
DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AND THE ADVANCED TIME FRAME... WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  67  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  70  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  58  42  70 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         41  66  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION... AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 19Z SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRAND VALLEY... WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THIS EVENING... BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX... SLOWLY RELAXING
AND BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRI MORNING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY... WITH
LOWS FRI AM DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NRN OK... WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY DIPPING NEAR FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL
BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY... IN THE MID 60S IN OK TO THE LOW 70S
IN WRN N TX FOR TMRW.

EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND S/SW LL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. ONE CAVEAT
OF THIS INTO SUNDAY IS THE DIVERGENCE OF MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OFF THE SO-
CAL COAST THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THIS PLAYS A ROLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL... AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUE INTO THU AS
THIS H500 WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS NM AND W TX AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... THE
ECMWF PRIMARILY KEEPS MOST PRECIP SOUTH IN TX WHILE THE GFS LIFTS
PRECIP ACROSS OK... AND A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF... WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT ON THE GFS. GIVEN
DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AND THE ADVANCED TIME FRAME... WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  67  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  70  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  58  42  70 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         41  66  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261742 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... BECOMING NEAR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO THE W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING... TRANSITIONING BACK TO THE
NORTH AFTER SUNRISE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261742 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... BECOMING NEAR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO THE W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING... TRANSITIONING BACK TO THE
NORTH AFTER SUNRISE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261742 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... BECOMING NEAR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO THE W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING... TRANSITIONING BACK TO THE
NORTH AFTER SUNRISE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261742 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... BECOMING NEAR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO THE W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING... TRANSITIONING BACK TO THE
NORTH AFTER SUNRISE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261431
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261431
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261431
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261431
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE... TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           64  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261129
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO BELOW 10 KT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260856
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ022-023-
     027>047-050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260856
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ022-023-
     027>047-050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260856
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST
TOMORROW...BUT A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID
DAY WILL KEEP THEM AROUND AVG FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

BY EARLY SAT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE FA THROUGH SUN AM. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST SOLUTIONS NOW THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FA SUN AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE GFS...HOWEVER...STALLS THIS FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUN
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECM/DGEX/GEM
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SE.
CONFIDENCE IN IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GULF OF CALI AND MOVES INTO WEST
TEXAS SOMETIME TUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT AT LEAST OK BY DAY 7 THOUGH...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHCS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  44  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  44  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  39  60  44 /   0  10   0  10
DURANT OK         60  43  69  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ022-023-
     027>047-050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260518
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING. NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER PNC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TSRA IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  40  63  43 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         62  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  36  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  36  59  40 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK         62  41  66  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>047-
     050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260518
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING. NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER PNC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TSRA IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  40  63  43 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         62  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  36  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  36  59  40 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK         62  41  66  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>047-
     050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260518
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING. NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER PNC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TSRA IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  40  63  43 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         62  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  36  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  36  59  40 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK         62  41  66  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>047-
     050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260518
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING. NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER PNC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TSRA IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  40  63  43 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK         62  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           66  36  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  36  59  40 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK         62  41  66  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ014>047-
     050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260350 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED SO CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND JUST HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FA.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN
KANSAS AND PANHANDLES INTO NW OK WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING... WITH STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  90   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  60   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  40   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  40  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>047-050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260350 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED SO CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND JUST HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FA.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN
KANSAS AND PANHANDLES INTO NW OK WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING... WITH STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  90   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  60   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  40   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  40  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>047-050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING... WITH STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  60   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  60  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>010-012-013-019-
     020-025.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>036-038.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ026-028>032-037-
     039>047-050-051.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ021>023-027-
     033>036-038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 252326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING... WITH STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  60   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  60  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>010-012-013-019-
     020-025.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>036-038.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ026-028>032-037-
     039>047-050-051.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ021>023-027-
     033>036-038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251937
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  60   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  60  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>010-012-013-019-
     020-025.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>036-038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ026-028>032-037-039>047-050-051.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ021>023-027-033>036-038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251937
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  60   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  60  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>010-012-013-019-
     020-025.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>036-038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ026-028>032-037-039>047-050-051.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ021>023-027-033>036-038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251937
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  60   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  60  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>010-012-013-019-
     020-025.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>036-038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ026-028>032-037-039>047-050-051.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ021>023-027-033>036-038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251937
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  60   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  60  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>010-012-013-019-
     020-025.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>036-038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ026-028>032-037-039>047-050-051.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ021>023-027-033>036-038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251730
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW CEILINGS OVER N OK IS ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER N THIS AFTN. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
CIRCULATE AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS OK THIS AFTN
AND EVENING...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS AT MANY
SITES...BUT GENERALLY FOR SHORT DURATION. AROUND 21Z...SHORT-TERM
MODELS SHOW RAPID TSRA DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR I-35/I-44. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE E/NE...AND SHOULD BE E OF ALL TAF SITES BY 01Z OR
02Z. W OK WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AFFECTED BY TSRA...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
NEAR THE KS BORDER. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OK/N TX THIS EVENING...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 40-50 KT ARE
LIKELY IN W 1/3 OF OK...WITH 30-40 KT LIKELY ELSEWHERE. A GENERAL
CLEARING TREND...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS...IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

CMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS...WIND
SHIFTS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LATTER WILL OCCUR AT PNC
AROUND 21-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CLOSER TO 22-02Z AT OKC/OUN.
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR ANY OTHER TERMINALS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 50 KT
NEAR CSM...HBR AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LARGER THAN TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE OK SHOW DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME NW KS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT AROUND 21Z AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST/SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR SW
OK/W N TX. THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
22-03Z. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...NEAR
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
850-925MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CONVECTION AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SINCE DECOUPLING
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR FA TO THE SE AFTER 10Z OR
SO...AND THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE NEAR THE SAME TIME. NEAR
FREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NW OK THURSDAY MORNING
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS THAT REGION.
A COOL TREND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE FA AS A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THE SFC FLOW WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE OVER THE EAST. THERES BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK SUNDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE IT WILL END UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  44  61  40 /  60  70   0   0
HOBART OK         81  40  62  37 /  40  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  46  63  41 /  30  40   0   0
GAGE OK           68  33  66  35 /  20  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  39  60  35 /  60  30   0  10
DURANT OK         81  48  62  42 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>010-012-013-019-020-025.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ011-014>018-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ011-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>036-038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ026-028>032-037-039>047-050-051.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ021>023-027-033>036-038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

04/26/23




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251152
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS...WIND
SHIFTS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LATTER WILL OCCUR AT PNC
AROUND 21-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CLOSER TO 22-02Z AT OKC/OUN.
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR ANY OTHER TERMINALS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 50 KT
NEAR CSM...HBR AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LARGER THAN TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE OK SHOW DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME NW KS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT AROUND 21Z AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST/SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR SW
OK/W N TX. THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
22-03Z. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...NEAR
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
850-925MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CONVECTION AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SINCE DECOUPLING
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR FA TO THE SE AFTER 10Z OR
SO...AND THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE NEAR THE SAME TIME. NEAR
FREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NW OK THURSDAY MORNING
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS THAT REGION.
A COOL TREND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE FA AS A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THE SFC FLOW WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE OVER THE EAST. THERES BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK SUNDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE IT WILL END UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  43  61  40 /  60  70   0   0
HOBART OK         81  39  62  37 /  40  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  44  63  41 /  30  40   0   0
GAGE OK           74  33  66  35 /  20  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  37  60  35 /  60  30   0  10
DURANT OK         82  48  62  42 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>020-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ021>023-026>030-033>040-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251152
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS...WIND
SHIFTS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LATTER WILL OCCUR AT PNC
AROUND 21-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CLOSER TO 22-02Z AT OKC/OUN.
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR ANY OTHER TERMINALS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 50 KT
NEAR CSM...HBR AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LARGER THAN TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE OK SHOW DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME NW KS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT AROUND 21Z AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST/SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR SW
OK/W N TX. THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
22-03Z. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...NEAR
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
850-925MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CONVECTION AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SINCE DECOUPLING
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR FA TO THE SE AFTER 10Z OR
SO...AND THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE NEAR THE SAME TIME. NEAR
FREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NW OK THURSDAY MORNING
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS THAT REGION.
A COOL TREND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE FA AS A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THE SFC FLOW WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE OVER THE EAST. THERES BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK SUNDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE IT WILL END UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  43  61  40 /  60  70   0   0
HOBART OK         81  39  62  37 /  40  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  44  63  41 /  30  40   0   0
GAGE OK           74  33  66  35 /  20  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  37  60  35 /  60  30   0  10
DURANT OK         82  48  62  42 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>020-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ021>023-026>030-033>040-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251152
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS...WIND
SHIFTS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LATTER WILL OCCUR AT PNC
AROUND 21-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CLOSER TO 22-02Z AT OKC/OUN.
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR ANY OTHER TERMINALS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 50 KT
NEAR CSM...HBR AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LARGER THAN TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE OK SHOW DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME NW KS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT AROUND 21Z AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST/SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR SW
OK/W N TX. THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
22-03Z. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...NEAR
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
850-925MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CONVECTION AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SINCE DECOUPLING
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR FA TO THE SE AFTER 10Z OR
SO...AND THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE NEAR THE SAME TIME. NEAR
FREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NW OK THURSDAY MORNING
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS THAT REGION.
A COOL TREND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE FA AS A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THE SFC FLOW WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE OVER THE EAST. THERES BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK SUNDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE IT WILL END UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  43  61  40 /  60  70   0   0
HOBART OK         81  39  62  37 /  40  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  44  63  41 /  30  40   0   0
GAGE OK           74  33  66  35 /  20  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  37  60  35 /  60  30   0  10
DURANT OK         82  48  62  42 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>020-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ021>023-026>030-033>040-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251152
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS...WIND
SHIFTS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LATTER WILL OCCUR AT PNC
AROUND 21-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CLOSER TO 22-02Z AT OKC/OUN.
DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR ANY OTHER TERMINALS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 50 KT
NEAR CSM...HBR AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LARGER THAN TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE OK SHOW DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME NW KS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT AROUND 21Z AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST/SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR SW
OK/W N TX. THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
22-03Z. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...NEAR
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
850-925MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CONVECTION AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SINCE DECOUPLING
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR FA TO THE SE AFTER 10Z OR
SO...AND THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE NEAR THE SAME TIME. NEAR
FREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NW OK THURSDAY MORNING
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS THAT REGION.
A COOL TREND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE FA AS A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THE SFC FLOW WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE OVER THE EAST. THERES BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK SUNDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE IT WILL END UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  43  61  40 /  60  70   0   0
HOBART OK         81  39  62  37 /  40  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  44  63  41 /  30  40   0   0
GAGE OK           74  33  66  35 /  20  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  37  60  35 /  60  30   0  10
DURANT OK         82  48  62  42 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>020-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ021>023-026>030-033>040-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 250952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LARGER THAN TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE OK SHOW DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME NW KS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT AROUND 21Z AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST/SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR SW
OK/W N TX. THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
22-03Z. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...NEAR
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
850-925MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CONVECTION AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SINCE DECOUPLING
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR FA TO THE SE AFTER 10Z OR
SO...AND THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE NEAR THE SAME TIME. NEAR
FREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NW OK THURSDAY MORNING
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS THAT REGION.
A COOL TREND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE FA AS A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THE SFC FLOW WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE OVER THE EAST. THERES BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK SUNDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE IT WILL END UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  43  61  40 /  60  70   0   0
HOBART OK         81  39  62  37 /  40  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  44  63  41 /  30  40   0   0
GAGE OK           74  33  66  35 /  20  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  37  60  35 /  60  30   0  10
DURANT OK         82  48  62  42 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>020-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ021>023-026>030-033>040-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

30/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 250952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LARGER THAN TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 65 TO
70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE OK SHOW DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME NW KS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT AROUND 21Z AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND THEN SPREAD
WEST/SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR SW
OK/W N TX. THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
22-03Z. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE...NEAR
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE AROUND 00-03Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
850-925MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CONVECTION AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SINCE DECOUPLING
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR FA TO THE SE AFTER 10Z OR
SO...AND THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE NEAR THE SAME TIME. NEAR
FREEZING LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NW OK THURSDAY MORNING
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF FASTER ACROSS THAT REGION.
A COOL TREND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE FA AS A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THE SFC FLOW WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE OVER THE EAST. THERES BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK SUNDAY AND STALL
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE IT WILL END UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  43  61  40 /  60  70   0   0
HOBART OK         81  39  62  37 /  40  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  44  63  41 /  30  40   0   0
GAGE OK           74  33  66  35 /  20  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  37  60  35 /  60  30   0  10
DURANT OK         82  48  62  42 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>020-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ021>023-026>030-033>040-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

30/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTN/EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND BECOMING STRONG. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED AFTN/EVENING AT SOME TAF SITES. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED SHORT-TERM DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS
BUT LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. AN ISOLATED STORM
STILL POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES
TONIGHT NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST NAM THIS EVENING
POINTING TO POSSIBILITY OF FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH QUICK EVOLUTION TO LINEAR
MODE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACROSS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 250450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTN/EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND BECOMING STRONG. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED AFTN/EVENING AT SOME TAF SITES. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED SHORT-TERM DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS
BUT LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. AN ISOLATED STORM
STILL POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES
TONIGHT NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST NAM THIS EVENING
POINTING TO POSSIBILITY OF FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH QUICK EVOLUTION TO LINEAR
MODE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACROSS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250224
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED SHORT-TERM DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS
BUT LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. AN ISOLATED STORM
STILL POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES
TONIGHT NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST NAM THIS EVENING
POINTING TO POSSIBILITY OF FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH QUICK EVOLUTION TO LINEAR
MODE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACROSS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 250224
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED SHORT-TERM DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS
BUT LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. AN ISOLATED STORM
STILL POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES
TONIGHT NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST NAM THIS EVENING
POINTING TO POSSIBILITY OF FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH QUICK EVOLUTION TO LINEAR
MODE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACROSS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 242321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACR0SS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 242321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACR0SS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 242321
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACR0SS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 242028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACR0SS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  77  43  61 /   0  50  30  10
HOBART OK         49  79  41  62 /   0  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  87  46  63 /   0  20  50  10
GAGE OK           45  72  35  63 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  71  38  58 /   0  40  20   0
DURANT OK         57  79  49  61 /  40  20  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 242028
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACR0SS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  77  43  61 /   0  50  30  10
HOBART OK         49  79  41  62 /   0  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  87  46  63 /   0  20  50  10
GAGE OK           45  72  35  63 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  71  38  58 /   0  40  20   0
DURANT OK         57  79  49  61 /  40  20  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 241731 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW QUICKLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONT... GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25KT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. N/NW WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
W...NW AND NNW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF KS.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY AT GAG/WWR...AND AROUND MID
DAY FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...AFTER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF SPS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/04/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241731 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW QUICKLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONT... GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25KT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. N/NW WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
W...NW AND NNW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF KS.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY AT GAG/WWR...AND AROUND MID
DAY FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...AFTER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF SPS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/04/04




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241731 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW QUICKLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONT... GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25KT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. N/NW WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
W...NW AND NNW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF KS.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY AT GAG/WWR...AND AROUND MID
DAY FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...AFTER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF SPS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/04/04





000
FXUS64 KOUN 241123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
W...NW AND NNW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF KS.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY AT GAG/WWR...AND AROUND MID
DAY FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...AFTER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF SPS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 241123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
W...NW AND NNW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF KS.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY AT GAG/WWR...AND AROUND MID
DAY FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...AFTER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF SPS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
W...NW AND NNW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF KS.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY AT GAG/WWR...AND AROUND MID
DAY FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...AFTER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF SPS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 241123
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TAFS TODAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
W...NW AND NNW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF KS.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY AT GAG/WWR...AND AROUND MID
DAY FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...AFTER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE EAST OUT OF SPS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 240930
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03





000
FXUS64 KOUN 240930
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD...PERSISTENT +20 MPH SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A RFW SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SE OK.
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z MAY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP
SHEAR AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE
HAIL SIZES IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44 AS A SIGNFICANT
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
CONFINED/NARROWED POPS A BIT ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT KEPT AT LEAST LIKELY IN AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SE OF
OKC METRO WHERE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT DOES
THE SAME.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR...WITH ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OK MAY NEAR FREEZING...BUT
FEEL LIKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM
FROM REACHING IT. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL THEN START TO RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING. LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MOST
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS CERTAINLY
NOT HIGH...BUT LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  77  43 /   0   0  50  30
HOBART OK         80  49  79  41 /   0   0  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  53  87  46 /   0   0  20  50
GAGE OK           76  45  72  35 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     76  48  71  38 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         81  57  79  49 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/03




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240418
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR... MAYBE SOME MVFR EARLY TUESDAY... CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED... WITH MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM... WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OK... WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT THE KPNC TAF SITE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WOULD
KEEP THEM NORTH AND EAST OF THE PONCA CITY AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE
A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP SOUTH AS WELL. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  80  53  77 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         55  80  49  78 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  85  53  83 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  75  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  76  47  74 /  30  10   0  40
DURANT OK         56  80  57  77 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-084.

&&

$$

09/25/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 240242
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WOULD
KEEP THEM NORTH AND EAST OF THE PONCA CITY AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE
A TENDANCY TO DEVELOP SOUTH AS WELL. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  80  53  77 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         55  80  49  78 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  85  53  83 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  75  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  76  47  74 /  30  10   0  40
DURANT OK         56  80  57  77 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-084.

&&

$$

09/25





000
FXUS64 KOUN 240242
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WOULD
KEEP THEM NORTH AND EAST OF THE PONCA CITY AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE
A TENDANCY TO DEVELOP SOUTH AS WELL. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  80  53  77 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         55  80  49  78 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  85  53  83 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  75  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  76  47  74 /  30  10   0  40
DURANT OK         56  80  57  77 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-084.

&&

$$

09/25




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