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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280826
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA IN SOME
PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEWPT AND TEMP TRENDS TO SEE IF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
ADVISORY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NW OK TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
STALLING. INITIALLY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO GREAT
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER STILL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST
LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE FA ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME DISTURBANCES MAY
MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT NW
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK SO RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY
FOR SOME. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THE NW FLOW BUT DOES
OCCASIONALLY HAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES.

THE FRONT... CLOUDS... AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING WEST...
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  95  72 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK        101  74  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK          100  70  89  68 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  75  92  70 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&





000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&




000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&





000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 272340
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 272016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 272016
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           73 100  71  91 /  10  10  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  74  92 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           73 100  71  91 /  10  10  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  74  92 /  10   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271544 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  71 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271544 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY TO INCREASE THEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.

BASED ON 10 AM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DEPICTING
INCREASES OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN
MANY AREAS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING
THE 105 DEGREE MARK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  71 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     96  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271334 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271334 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271334 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 271141
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11





000
FXUS64 KOUN 270901
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  30  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  20  10   0  10
DURANT OK         97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262302
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVIAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MOST
TAF SITES SEEING GUSTS OVER 20KTS BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FOR NOW...WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING AND NOT REISSUE ONE FOR MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT
INDICES. AT WORST ON MONDAY...HEAT INDICES WOULD APPROACH 105
DEGREES...MARGINALLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERA...BUT MAY STAY
JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MOST
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATE LINE. GUSTY
SUBSEVERE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TUESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR LOW STORM CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING SOME POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE HELD DOWN IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         73 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262302
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVIAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MOST
TAF SITES SEEING GUSTS OVER 20KTS BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FOR NOW...WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING AND NOT REISSUE ONE FOR MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT
INDICES. AT WORST ON MONDAY...HEAT INDICES WOULD APPROACH 105
DEGREES...MARGINALLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERA...BUT MAY STAY
JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MOST
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATE LINE. GUSTY
SUBSEVERE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TUESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR LOW STORM CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING SOME POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE HELD DOWN IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         73 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 262302
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVIAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MOST
TAF SITES SEEING GUSTS OVER 20KTS BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FOR NOW...WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING AND NOT REISSUE ONE FOR MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT
INDICES. AT WORST ON MONDAY...HEAT INDICES WOULD APPROACH 105
DEGREES...MARGINALLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERA...BUT MAY STAY
JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MOST
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATE LINE. GUSTY
SUBSEVERE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TUESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR LOW STORM CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING SOME POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE HELD DOWN IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         73 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 262302
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVIAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MOST
TAF SITES SEEING GUSTS OVER 20KTS BY AFTN.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FOR NOW...WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING AND NOT REISSUE ONE FOR MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT
INDICES. AT WORST ON MONDAY...HEAT INDICES WOULD APPROACH 105
DEGREES...MARGINALLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERA...BUT MAY STAY
JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MOST
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATE LINE. GUSTY
SUBSEVERE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TUESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR LOW STORM CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING SOME POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE HELD DOWN IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         73 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FOR NOW...WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING AND NOT REISSUE ONE FOR MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT
INDICES. AT WORST ON MONDAY...HEAT INDICES WOULD APPROACH 105
DEGREES...MARGINALLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERA...BUT MAY STAY
JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MOST
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATE LINE. GUSTY
SUBSEVERE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TUESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR LOW STORM CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING SOME POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE HELD DOWN IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         73 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261928
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FOR NOW...WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING AND NOT REISSUE ONE FOR MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
A BIT LOWER ON MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT
INDICES. AT WORST ON MONDAY...HEAT INDICES WOULD APPROACH 105
DEGREES...MARGINALLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERA...BUT MAY STAY
JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES COULD MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MOST
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATE LINE. GUSTY
SUBSEVERE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TUESDAY...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR LOW STORM CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING SOME POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE HELD DOWN IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         73 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TSRA NEAR KWWR AND KGAG
03-12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 261721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TSRA NEAR KWWR AND KGAG
03-12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TSRA NEAR KWWR AND KGAG
03-12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 261721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TSRA NEAR KWWR AND KGAG
03-12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 101  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  72 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     99  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK        100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 101  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  72 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     99  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK        100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
WILL CONT WITH VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTIONIN THE TAFS AS EXPECT STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STATE.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS S/SWRN KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
S/SE... INCHING EVER CLOSER TO THE OK/KS BORDER. RADAR TRENDS AND
IR SAT REVEAL A SMALL COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW REGION OF
H850 CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AN OVERALL SLOW EVOLUTION... FROM SPARSE OBS IN KS... IT
APPEARS CURRENT CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON A MINOR COLD POOL AND
POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO THE MODEST DEVELOPING LLJ. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT... ALBEIT BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS AND QPF DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL FLAVORS OF THE HIRES WRF... EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO REACH PORTIONS OF NRN OK. IN RESPONSE... INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.

ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
NRN OK EARLY SUN MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALL HAIL... POSSIBLY NICKEL SIZED. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           74 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  76  99 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30




000
FXUS64 KOUN 260305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS S/SWRN KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
S/SE... INCHING EVER CLOSER TO THE OK/KS BORDER. RADAR TRENDS AND
IR SAT REVEAL A SMALL COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW REGION OF
H850 CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AN OVERALL SLOW EVOLUTION... FROM SPARSE OBS IN KS... IT
APPEARS CURRENT CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON A MINOR COLD POOL AND
POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO THE MODEST DEVELOPING LLJ. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT... ALBEIT BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS AND QPF DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL FLAVORS OF THE HIRES WRF... EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO REACH PORTIONS OF NRN OK. IN RESPONSE... INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.

ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
NRN OK EARLY SUN MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALL HAIL... POSSIBLY NICKEL SIZED. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           74 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  76  99 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 260305
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS S/SWRN KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
S/SE... INCHING EVER CLOSER TO THE OK/KS BORDER. RADAR TRENDS AND
IR SAT REVEAL A SMALL COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW REGION OF
H850 CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AN OVERALL SLOW EVOLUTION... FROM SPARSE OBS IN KS... IT
APPEARS CURRENT CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON A MINOR COLD POOL AND
POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO THE MODEST DEVELOPING LLJ. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT... ALBEIT BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS AND QPF DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL FLAVORS OF THE HIRES WRF... EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO REACH PORTIONS OF NRN OK. IN RESPONSE... INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.

ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
NRN OK EARLY SUN MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALL HAIL... POSSIBLY NICKEL SIZED. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           74 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  98  76  99 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30





000
FXUS64 KOUN 252254
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  99 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 252254
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  99 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251941
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  99 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251941
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.

EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71 100  73 101 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  99 /  10  10  10   0
DURANT OK         75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251723
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA MAY BE NEAR KWWR AND KGAG 22-06Z...BUT CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

UPDATE...
THINGS ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE FORECAST WERE MADE. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE HOURLY
DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAD INDICES OF 103 TO
107 DEGREES. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGHER CRITERIA WEST OF I-35...THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO MONITOR PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OK IN CASE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
IF SUCH IS THE CASE...BORDERLINED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
MAY BE MET WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES. PLEASE TRY AND
STAY COOL AND AVOID BEING OUTDOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AUSTIN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SKIRT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA....AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
105 TO 110. PARTS....IF NOT ALL OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PARTS OF
KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO AT
LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  73 /  10  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  77  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251457
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
957 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THINGS ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE FORECAST WERE MADE. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE HOURLY
DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAD INDICES OF 103 TO
107 DEGREES. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGHER CRITERIA WEST OF I-35...THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO MONITOR PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OK IN CASE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
IF SUCH IS THE CASE...BORDERLINED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
MAY BE MET WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES. PLEASE TRY AND
STAY COOL AND AVOID BEING OUTDOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SKIRT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA....AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
105 TO 110. PARTS....IF NOT ALL OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PARTS OF
KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO AT
LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  73 /  10  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  77  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17





000
FXUS64 KOUN 251457
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
957 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THINGS ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE FORECAST WERE MADE. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE HOURLY
DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAD INDICES OF 103 TO
107 DEGREES. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGHER CRITERIA WEST OF I-35...THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO MONITOR PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OK IN CASE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
IF SUCH IS THE CASE...BORDERLINED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
MAY BE MET WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES. PLEASE TRY AND
STAY COOL AND AVOID BEING OUTDOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SKIRT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA....AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
105 TO 110. PARTS....IF NOT ALL OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PARTS OF
KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO AT
LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  73 /  10  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  77  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251140
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SKIRT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA....AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
105 TO 110. PARTS....IF NOT ALL OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PARTS OF
KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO AT
LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  73 /  10  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  77  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KOUN 251140
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SKIRT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA....AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
105 TO 110. PARTS....IF NOT ALL OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PARTS OF
KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO AT
LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  73 /  10  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     98  77  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$





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