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000
FXUS63 KPAH 250454 AAC
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Updated forecast to account for precipitation trends. A large area
of showers and thunderstorms continues to spread across the forecast
area this evening. The entire region should have experienced a good
soaking rain by midnight. Also kept higher rain chances over the
northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area late this evening through the early
pre-dawn hours Friday to account for greater elevated instability
associated with the passing mid level trough. With the low levels
slow to moisten up and deep layer shear lacking, severe storms have
not materialized. The threat has all but ended at this time, though
an isolated strong storm still cannot be completely discounted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.

The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.

Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.

The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.

As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.

Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.

From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 15-16Z...
otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 06-09Z
and between 09-14Z at KEVV/KOWB. Gusty southerly winds at 10-12
knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest
during the night with speeds slightly decreasing, veer around to
the northwest between 11-13Z aob 15 knots, then variable aob 5
knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 250229 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
928 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Updated forecast to account for precipitation trends. A large area
of showers and thunderstorms continues to spread across the forecast
area this evening. The entire region should have experienced a good
soaking rain by midnight. Also kept higher rain chances over the
northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area late this evening through the early
pre-dawn hours Friday to account for greater elevated instability
associated with the passing mid level trough. With the low levels
slow to moisten up and deep layer shear lacking, severe storms have
not materialized. The threat has all but ended at this time, though
an isolated strong storm still cannot be completely discounted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.

The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.

Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.

The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.

As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.

Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.

From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 12-13Z...
otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 00-03Z and
between 03-07Z at KEVV/KOWB. Southerly winds at 10-12 knots gusting
up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest during the night
and maintain those speeds, then around to the northwest between
11-13Z and decrease to aob 15 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 242321 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
621 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.

The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.

Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.

The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.

As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.

Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.

From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 12-13Z
...otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between
00-03Z and between 03-07Z at KEVV/KOWB. Southerly winds at 10-12
knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest
during the night and maintain those speeds, then around to the
northwest between 11-13Z and decrease to aob 15 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 242020
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.

The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.

Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.

The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.

As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.

Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.

From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with just a few cu
around 5kft expected around KCGI late this afternoon. Used a 2 to 3
hour TEMPO group to time the main line of thunderstorms through
the area this evening and tonight. As the line gets more organized
with time this evening, the thunder potential may linger awhile
longer at KEVV and KOWB. Also the models are indicating more in
the way of wrap-around showers lingering potentially past 12Z at
KEVV and KOWB. Not sure if visibilities will drop to MVFR levels,
but ceilings will certainly be there through daybreak, and IFR
ceilings are likely at least for part of that time.
Scattering/clearing is expected in the east by late morning.

Winds will increase and become gusty from the south or south
southeast this afternoon and evening, and then veer to southwest
behind the main line of convection. Gusts into the mid 20kts can
be expected in the western half of the area this afternoon. They
will eventually veer to the west northwest Friday morning, as the
whole storm system moves east of our area. Some gusts into the
teens will be possible Friday morning.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 241753
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The latest guidance is slowing down the arrival of the strong to
severe convection later today. It looks like the first of the
activity will move into the western portions of southeast Missouri
around 22Z, it should solidify into a well organized line as it
gets east of the Mississippi River just after 00Z. It will likely
be late evening, 03Z or later, before it reaches the Evansville
and Owensboro areas.

In the meantime, it will be warmer and less humid than expected
for much of the day. The low-level moisture will ramp up just
ahead of the storms.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Active weather situation expected from late this afternoon into
the evening. A potent short wave is forecast to move across the area.

Initially today should be dry with mainly cirrus clouds from
thunderstorms over the plains. Overall, models have slowed down
the system by a couple hours from previous thinking.

Chances of storms increase over the west this afternoon as higher
dew points move in and air becomes more unstable. 850 winds and
bulk shear increase this afternoon over the west while an upper
trough sharpens and becomes slightly negatively tilted. Narrow
band of 60 degree dew points are expected to reach into the area
just ahead of the cold front. Storms should become more organized
during the afternoon. Models suggest some convection out ahead of
the cold front over SEMO and gradually then become more linear
during the evening as the system moves east. Instability continues
through the evening as cold front moves through. By 00z the front
is just entering the western sections and should reach the Ohio
River just prior to 06z.

Lingering showers possible til morning over the eastern sections.
A high pressure ridge sets up quickly Friday during the day and by
Saturday we are back into a decent southerly flow ahead of the
next system. At this point, keeping area dry through Saturday Night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Well, in a nutshell, the extended period looks quite complicated.
Much of the Sunday through Tuesday period looks unsettled, but there
is currently low confidence on day to day specifics.

The first issue that crosses my mind begins with the Sunday
aftn/night mid lvl impulse that should be ejecting ne (in a
negatively tilted fashion) from a vertically stacked system out
over the Central Plains. Models are in decent agreement as to the
timing of the h50 impulse. However, there is uncertainty as to
whether we actually get into the warm sector at the surface, or
whether the warm front remains draped across srn portions of the
forecast area. The 00z GFS/GEM seem to want to lift the sfc front
to our north, while the deterministic ECMWF keeps the front down
closer to the TN border through 12z Monday. The placement of the
front will likely be key in determining the sfc based instability
and low lvl shear across the region. However, no matter which
solution pans out, there looks to be a decent chance of some type
of severe risk as that short wave ejects ne late Sunday and Sunday
night.

As we get into next week, additional short waves will likely
pinwheel around the closed low out over the Plains. The 12z GFS has
us well into the warm sector by Monday afternoon, with LI`s -6 to -8
as the next impulse rotates into the Ms River Valley. The ECMWF
wants to keep the warm front draped down across the TN border, with
most of the region still in the cool sector. Once again, even though
storm mode and specific timing will be in question, the chance of
rain/thunderstorms looks relatively high early next week. Bust
potential on sfc temps will also be high early next week, depending
on where that warm front ends up. Will likely play a middle of the
road approach at this point, esp for Monday, as to minimize error.
As we head into the Tuesday/Wed time frame, there seems to be a bit
more confidence that H50 heights will be falling with the approach
of the upper low, and temps will be falling to below normal levels.
Overall, it looks to be quite unsettled until the blocking pattern
can break down. Will need to monitor this extended period not only
for the severe storm potential, but also the heavy rain potential
given the stagnant pattern that is expected to unfold.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with just a few cu
around 5kft expected around KCGI late this afternoon. Used a 2 to 3
hour TEMPO group to time the main line of thunderstorms through
the area this evening and tonight. As the line gets more organized
with time this evening, the thunder potential may linger awhile
longer at KEVV and KOWB. Also the models are indicating more in
the way of wrap-around showers lingering potentially past 12Z at
KEVV and KOWB. Not sure if visibilities will drop to MVFR levels,
but ceilings will certainly be there through daybreak, and IFR
ceilings are likely at least for part of that time.
Scattering/clearing is expected in the east by late morning.

Winds will increase and become gusty from the south or south
southeast this afternoon and evening, and then veer to southwest
behind the main line of convection. Gusts into the mid 20kts can
be expected in the western half of the area this afternoon. They
will eventually veer to the west northwest Friday morning, as the
whole storm system moves east of our area. Some gusts into the
teens will be possible Friday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 241124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
624 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Active weather situation expected from late this afternoon into
the evening. A potent short wave is forecast to move across the area.

Initially today should be dry with mainly cirrus clouds from
thunderstorms over the plains. Overall, models have slowed down
the system by a couple hours from previous thinking.

Chances of storms increase over the west this afternoon as higher
dew points move in and air becomes more unstable. 850 winds and
bulk shear increase this afternoon over the west while an upper
trough sharpens and becomes slightly negatively tilted. Narrow
band of 60 degree dew points are expected to reach into the area
just ahead of the cold front. Storms should become more organized
during the afternoon. Models suggest some convection out ahead of
the cold front over SEMO and gradually then become more linear
during the evening as the system moves east. Instability continues
through the evening as cold front moves through. By 00z the front
is just entering the western sections and should reach the Ohio
River just prior to 06z.

Lingering showers possible til morning over the eastern sections.
A high pressure ridge sets up quickly Friday during the day and by
Saturday we are back into a decent southerly flow ahead of the
next system. At this point, keeping area dry through Saturday Night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Well, in a nutshell, the extended period looks quite complicated.
Much of the Sunday through Tuesday period looks unsettled, but there
is currently low confidence on day to day specifics.

The first issue that crosses my mind begins with the Sunday
aftn/night mid lvl impulse that should be ejecting ne (in a
negatively tilted fashion) from a vertically stacked system out
over the Central Plains. Models are in decent agreement as to the
timing of the h50 impulse. However, there is uncertainty as to
whether we actually get into the warm sector at the surface, or
whether the warm front remains draped across srn portions of the
forecast area. The 00z GFS/GEM seem to want to lift the sfc front
to our north, while the deterministic ECMWF keeps the front down
closer to the TN border through 12z Monday. The placement of the
front will likely be key in determining the sfc based instability
and low lvl shear across the region. However, no matter which
solution pans out, there looks to be a decent chance of some type
of severe risk as that short wave ejects ne late Sunday and Sunday
night.

As we get into next week, additional short waves will likely
pinwheel around the closed low out over the Plains. The 12z GFS has
us well into the warm sector by Monday afternoon, with LI`s -6 to -8
as the next impulse rotates into the Ms River Valley. The ECMWF
wants to keep the warm front draped down across the TN border, with
most of the region still in the cool sector. Once again, even though
storm mode and specific timing will be in question, the chance of
rain/thunderstorms looks relatively high early next week. Bust
potential on sfc temps will also be high early next week, depending
on where that warm front ends up. Will likely play a middle of the
road approach at this point, esp for Monday, as to minimize error.
As we head into the Tuesday/Wed time frame, there seems to be a bit
more confidence that H50 heights will be falling with the approach
of the upper low, and temps will be falling to below normal levels.
Overall, it looks to be quite unsettled until the blocking pattern
can break down. Will need to monitor this extended period not only
for the severe storm potential, but also the heavy rain potential
given the stagnant pattern that is expected to unfold.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 622 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Mainly high cirrus with some cumulus developing this morning.
Winds will gust to around 22kts at both KCGi and KPAH with gusts
around 18kts at KEVV and KOWB. Thunderstorms should reach KCGI
around 00z, KPAH around 02Z, and KEVV/KOWB around 03z. MVFR
conditions with thunderstorms, then IFR conditions due to low cigs
after storms move east. Isolated showers will continue through
most of the night over most of the area.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...PS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 240803
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Active weather situation expected from late this afternoon into
the evening. A potent short wave is forecast to move across the area.

Initially today should be dry with mainly cirrus clouds from
thunderstorms over the plains. Overall, models have slowed down
the system by a couple hours from previous thinking.

Chances of storms increase over the west this afternoon as higher
dew points move in and air becomes more unstable. 850 winds and
bulk shear increase this afternoon over the west while an upper
trough sharpens and becomes slightly negatively tilted. Narrow
band of 60 degree dew points are expected to reach into the area
just ahead of the cold front. Storms should become more organized
during the afternoon. Models suggest some convection out ahead of
the cold front over SEMO and gradually then become more linear
during the evening as the system moves east. Instability continues
through the evening as cold front moves through. By 00z the front
is just entering the western sections and should reach the Ohio
River just prior to 06z.

Lingering showers possible til morning over the eastern sections.
A high pressure ridge sets up quickly Friday during the day and by
Saturday we are back into a decent southerly flow ahead of the
next system. At this point, keeping area dry through Saturday Night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Well, in a nutshell, the extended period looks quite complicated.
Much of the Sunday through Tuesday period looks unsettled, but there
is currently low confidence on day to day specifics.

The first issue that crosses my mind begins with the Sunday
aftn/night mid lvl impulse that should be ejecting ne (in a
negatively tilted fashion) from a vertically stacked system out
over the Central Plains. Models are in decent agreement as to the
timing of the h50 impulse. However, there is uncertainty as to
whether we actually get into the warm sector at the surface, or
whether the warm front remains draped across srn portions of the
forecast area. The 00z GFS/GEM seem to want to lift the sfc front
to our north, while the deterministic ECMWF keeps the front down
closer to the TN border through 12z Monday. The placement of the
front will likely be key in determining the sfc based instability
and low lvl shear across the region. However, no matter which
solution pans out, there looks to be a decent chance of some type
of severe risk as that short wave ejects ne late Sunday and Sunday
night.

As we get into next week, additional short waves will likely
pinwheel around the closed low out over the Plains. The 12z GFS has
us well into the warm sector by Monday afternoon, with LI`s -6 to -8
as the next impulse rotates into the Ms River Valley. The ECMWF
wants to keep the warm front draped down across the TN border, with
most of the region still in the cool sector. Once again, even though
storm mode and specific timing will be in question, the chance of
rain/thunderstorms looks relatively high early next week. Bust
potential on sfc temps will also be high early next week, depending
on where that warm front ends up. Will likely play a middle of the
road approach at this point, esp for Monday, as to minimize error.
As we head into the Tuesday/Wed time frame, there seems to be a bit
more confidence that H50 heights will be falling with the approach
of the upper low, and temps will be falling to below normal levels.
Overall, it looks to be quite unsettled until the blocking pattern
can break down. Will need to monitor this extended period not only
for the severe storm potential, but also the heavy rain potential
given the stagnant pattern that is expected to unfold.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

With the exception of possible MVFR cigs/vsbys in TSRA between 00-06Z,
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Southeast
winds aob 5 knots will pick up out of the south at 10-14 knots
with gusts up to 15-22 knots between 16-19Z. At KCGI winds are
expected to swing around to the northwest aob 10 knots around 04Z
with the FROPA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 240458 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The surface high has really held down warming this afternoon,
despite plenty of sunshine. It will continue to dominate the
region tonight with relatively light east southeast winds and
mostly clear skies expected in most locations. Temperatures will
be tricky, with potential for radiation cooling to drive
temperatures below guidance. With warm advection aloft, will go
close to guidance, and let the evening shift monitor for
potentially cooler temperatures overnight.

Winds will eventually veer to due south by Thursday afternoon, as
the surface high finally loosens its grip on the region. The 12Z
NAM and the high-resolution WRF runs have slowed down the arrival
and progression of the convection through the area Thursday
afternoon and evening, and they have been followed closely for
timing. Just about all 12Z models have a more intense mid/upper
trough swinging through the area Thursday evening. This will
result in greater forcing than expected yesterday, but the quality
of the low-level moisture and lapse rates aloft are still
questionable.

The slightly slower passage of the front will allow a bit more
time for lower 60s surface dewpoints to reach at least southern
portions of the area, but surface-based instability will still be
highly dependent on the forcing to be released. This should result
in a more linear event, with damaging winds the main concern, but
a stray brief tornado cannot be ruled out even within the line or
line segment.

A supercell or two cannot be ruled out initially as
the convection develops over southeast Missouri around 21Z, and
there could also be an embedded supercell structure within the
line or a line segment into the evening. The mid-level storm-
relative flow will still be rather weak, which would be
detrimental to the persistence of any supercell structures, and a
more robust severe weather event.

Look for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop over
southeast Missouri between 21Z and 00Z, and then move across the
remainder of the area as a line or series of line segments
through 06Z. In general, the severe weather threat will weaken as
it moves eastward through the evening. Any heavy rainfall should
be short-lived enough to prevent any major flash flooding
potential with this event.

Winds will become west or west northwest behind the front and
remain west or southwest Friday and Friday night. As for
temperatures, will generally side with the warmer MAV guidance for
highs Thursday and Friday. Leaned toward the milder MET guidance
for lows Thursday night and stayed close to guidance for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The extended period will begin with a sharp ridge aloft and srly
boundary layer flow over the PAH forecast area. Srly low level flow
will be on the increase Sun as a large, nearly stacked, low pressure
system approaches from the Central Plains. There will probably be
enough moisture influx/instability/divergence aloft ahead of the
system to trigger scattered tstms by Sun afternoon across much of
the region. The system should progress ewd Sun night, making
rainfall likely, with perhaps scattered lightning. By Mon, ample
vertical motion/moisture influx/instability is forecast to continue
through the day, with the added forcing of a sfc warm front lifting
nwd through the region, and inducing plentiful tstm activity into
Mon evening.

As to the severe weather possibility, at this time, the med range
models were in reasonable agreement that there will be robust wind
shear aloft by daybreak Mon. However, instability is forecast to be
somewhat limited, and the phasing of best lapse rates and best upper
jet winds do not appear to be ideal in the PAH forecast area, but it
should be better just to the west. Still, this does not rule out
some severe tstm development here, especially during Mon afternoon/
evening.

After Monday, the GFS ensemble members began to spread apart a bit
regarding the placement of the mid level and sfc lows, along with
the deterministic runs of the med range models. Tue should yield
showery conditions with the low pressure system somewhere in the
vicinity, with lesser QPF and still some lightning activity as sfc
winds finally turn to the nw late in the day. By Wed, if the model
solutions remain stable, a mid level trof in the nern conus will
have merged with the low over the PAH forecast area, dropping
heights a significant amount, meaning much cooler temps, and
continued cloudy, showery conditions through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

With the exception of possible MVFR cigs/vsbys in TSRA between 00-06Z,
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Southeast
winds aob 5 knots will pick up out of the south at 10-14 knots
with gusts up to 15-22 knots between 16-19Z. At KCGI winds are
expected to swing around to the northwest aob 10 knots around 04Z
with the FROPA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 232325 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The surface high has really held down warming this afternoon,
despite plenty of sunshine. It will continue to dominate the
region tonight with relatively light east southeast winds and
mostly clear skies expected in most locations. Temperatures will
be tricky, with potential for radiation cooling to drive
temperatures below guidance. With warm advection aloft, will go
close to guidance, and let the evening shift monitor for
potentially cooler temperatures overnight.

Winds will eventually veer to due south by Thursday afternoon, as
the surface high finally loosens its grip on the region. The 12Z
NAM and the high-resolution WRF runs have slowed down the arrival
and progression of the convection through the area Thursday
afternoon and evening, and they have been followed closely for
timing. Just about all 12Z models have a more intense mid/upper
trough swinging through the area Thursday evening. This will
result in greater forcing than expected yesterday, but the quality
of the low-level moisture and lapse rates aloft are still
questionable.

The slightly slower passage of the front will allow a bit more
time for lower 60s surface dewpoints to reach at least southern
portions of the area, but surface-based instability will still be
highly dependent on the forcing to be released. This should result
in a more linear event, with damaging winds the main concern, but
a stray brief tornado cannot be ruled out even within the line or
line segment.

A supercell or two cannot be ruled out initially as
the convection develops over southeast Missouri around 21Z, and
there could also be an embedded supercell structure within the
line or a line segment into the evening. The mid-level storm-
relative flow will still be rather weak, which would be
detrimental to the persistence of any supercell structures, and a
more robust severe weather event.

Look for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop over
southeast Missouri between 21Z and 00Z, and then move across the
remainder of the area as a line or series of line segments
through 06Z. In general, the severe weather threat will weaken as
it moves eastward through the evening. Any heavy rainfall should
be short-lived enough to prevent any major flash flooding
potential with this event.

Winds will become west or west northwest behind the front and
remain west or southwest Friday and Friday night. As for
temperatures, will generally side with the warmer MAV guidance for
highs Thursday and Friday. Leaned toward the milder MET guidance
for lows Thursday night and stayed close to guidance for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The extended period will begin with a sharp ridge aloft and srly
boundary layer flow over the PAH forecast area. Srly low level flow
will be on the increase Sun as a large, nearly stacked, low pressure
system approaches from the Central Plains. There will probably be
enough moisture influx/instability/divergence aloft ahead of the
system to trigger scattered tstms by Sun afternoon across much of
the region. The system should progress ewd Sun night, making
rainfall likely, with perhaps scattered lightning. By Mon, ample
vertical motion/moisture influx/instability is forecast to continue
through the day, with the added forcing of a sfc warm front lifting
nwd through the region, and inducing plentiful tstm activity into
Mon evening.

As to the severe weather possibility, at this time, the med range
models were in reasonable agreement that there will be robust wind
shear aloft by daybreak Mon. However, instability is forecast to be
somewhat limited, and the phasing of best lapse rates and best upper
jet winds do not appear to be ideal in the PAH forecast area, but it
should be better just to the west. Still, this does not rule out
some severe tstm development here, especially during Mon afternoon/
evening.

After Monday, the GFS ensemble members began to spread apart a bit
regarding the placement of the mid level and sfc lows, along with
the deterministic runs of the med range models. Tue should yield
showery conditions with the low pressure system somewhere in the
vicinity, with lesser QPF and still some lightning activity as sfc
winds finally turn to the nw late in the day. By Wed, if the model
solutions remain stable, a mid level trof in the nern conus will
have merged with the low over the PAH forecast area, dropping
heights a significant amount, meaning much cooler temps, and
continued cloudy, showery conditions through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 621 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, however
there could be VCTS at KCGI after 22Z. Variable winds aob 5 knots
will pick up out of the south at 10-14 knots with gusts up to
15-22 knots between 16-19Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 232003
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The surface high has really held down warming this afternoon,
despite plenty of sunshine. It will continue to dominate the
region tonight with relatively light east southeast winds and
mostly clear skies expected in most locations. Temperatures will
be tricky, with potential for radiation cooling to drive
temperatures below guidance. With warm advection aloft, will go
close to guidance, and let the evening shift monitor for
potentially cooler temperatures overnight.

Winds will eventually veer to due south by Thursday afternoon, as
the surface high finally loosens its grip on the region. The 12Z
NAM and the high-resolution WRF runs have slowed down the arrival
and progression of the convection through the area Thursday
afternoon and evening, and they have been followed closely for
timing. Just about all 12Z models have a more intense mid/upper
trough swinging through the area Thursday evening. This will
result in greater forcing than expected yesterday, but the quality
of the low-level moisture and lapse rates aloft are still
questionable.

The slightly slower passage of the front will allow a bit more
time for lower 60s surface dewpoints to reach at least southern
portions of the area, but surface-based instability will still be
highly dependent on the forcing to be released. This should result
in a more linear event, with damaging winds the main concern, but
a stray brief tornado cannot be ruled out even within the line or
line segment.

A supercell or two cannot be ruled out initially as
the convection develops over southeast Missouri around 21Z, and
there could also be an embedded supercell structure within the
line or a line segment into the evening. The mid-level storm-
relative flow will still be rather weak, which would be
detrimental to the persistence of any supercell structures, and a
more robust severe weather event.

Look for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop over
southeast Missouri between 21Z and 00Z, and then move across the
remainder of the area as a line or series of line segments
through 06Z. In general, the severe weather threat will weaken as
it moves eastward through the evening. Any heavy rainfall should
be short-lived enough to prevent any major flash flooding
potential with this event.

Winds will become west or west northwest behind the front and
remain west or southwest Friday and Friday night. As for
temperatures, will generally side with the warmer MAV guidance for
highs Thursday and Friday. Leaned toward the milder MET guidance
for lows Thursday night and stayed close to guidance for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The extended period will begin with a sharp ridge aloft and srly
boundary layer flow over the PAH forecast area. Srly low level flow
will be on the increase Sun as a large, nearly stacked, low pressure
system approaches from the Central Plains. There will probably be
enough moisture influx/instability/divergence aloft ahead of the
system to trigger scattered tstms by Sun afternoon across much of
the region. The system should progress ewd Sun night, making
rainfall likely, with perhaps scattered lightning. By Mon, ample
vertical motion/moisture influx/instability is forecast to continue
through the day, with the added forcing of a sfc warm front lifting
nwd through the region, and inducing plentiful tstm activity into
Mon evening.

As to the severe weather possibility, at this time, the med range
models were in reasonable agreement that there will be robust wind
shear aloft by daybreak Mon. However, instability is forecast to be
somewhat limited, and the phasing of best lapse rates and best upper
jet winds do not appear to be ideal in the PAH forecast area, but it
should be better just to the west. Still, this does not rule out
some severe tstm development here, especially during Mon afternoon/
evening.

After Monday, the GFS ensemble members began to spread apart a bit
regarding the placement of the mid level and sfc lows, along with
the deterministic runs of the med range models. Tue should yield
showery conditions with the low pressure system somewhere in the
vicinity, with lesser QPF and still some lightning activity as sfc
winds finally turn to the nw late in the day. By Wed, if the model
solutions remain stable, a mid level trof in the nern conus will
have merged with the low over the PAH forecast area, dropping
heights a significant amount, meaning much cooler temps, and
continued cloudy, showery conditions through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region through
tonight. East northeast winds this afternoon will veer to east
southeast and become light this evening. As a strong storm system
and cold front approaches Thursday, winds will increase from the
south. Some gusts up to near 20kts will be possible at KCGI by
18Z, but elsewhere the gusts should hold off until after 18Z. A
batch of mid clouds will stream across the area tonight, otherwise
skies will generally be clear.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 231713
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high Pressure ridging south into the FA will maintain dry
conditions into Thursday before the ridge moves east and winds
become southerly and advect moisture into the FA ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The latest GFS keeps slightly drier air in the FA longer than the
previous run but then becomes nearly identical with the previous run
in the eastward progression of precip thereafter/by Thursday evening
with the 500mb trough axis to about Dexter MO 00Z Friday. By 06Z
Friday both it and the weak surface cold front will be east of the
FA. The 00Z ECMWF remains about 3 to 4 hours slower than the GFS and
NAM and will lean toward the faster solution which also lines up
with previous forecasts.

QPF amounts still appear fairly modest with averages of 1/3 to 1/2
inch forecast. The greater amounts are likely across mainly the
northern part of the FA...closer to better upper level dynamics.  In
addition, instability will be fairly decent going into Thursday
evening when the system moves across the FA and for now SPC has a
Slight Risk immediately south of the western half of our FA.

Surface High Pressure will be building across the area late Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the weak cold front. Winds will
quickly back to the southwest Friday as the highest surface pressure
passes to our south. As a result...little change is expected in


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Active weather expected in the long term. Regardless of the
noticeable model variance, with respect the the movement of an
upper low from the Rockies into the central states, and the
positioning of a surface front somewhere across/north of the
area, convection is pretty much a given. It will be just a matter
of timing and coverage. The past two runs of the GFS Ensemble mean
depicts reasonably, best chances should arrive late Sunday into
Sunday night, and shift east across the area early next week with
the approach of the upper low. This is not a classic heavy rain
pattern. But multiple rounds of convection, should they line out
favorably, could result in some heavy rain across the CWFA. Strong
storms cannot be ruled out at some point. Best chance may be
Monday should we destabilize enough. That is when a branch of the
upper jet SE of the parent H5 low moves over top of the area
coincident with potentially decent destabilization. It`s possible
Sunday as well (strong storms), mainly SE Missouri westward, but
wind fields are weaker. Meanwhile, given PoPs were removed for
Saturday, will not flip flop that. Not convinced we won`t see
anything (even if isolated at best), given we destabilize by mid
to late afternoon, esp SW 1/3 of the area and with the front
around. Moisture is certainly marginal, and mid level support is
hard to find. Chances Saturday night should be slight as well, and
primarily limited to the NW 1/2 of the area. Temperatures will
continue to be tricky. A blend approach would seem reasonable to
minimize swings due to model variance. However, hedging warmer
seems to be the appropriate trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region through
tonight. East northeast winds this afternoon will veer to east
southeast and become light this evening. As a strong storm system
and cold front approaches Thursday, winds will increase from the
south. Some gusts up to near 20kts will be possible at KCGI by
18Z, but elsewhere the gusts should hold off until after 18Z. A
batch of mid clouds will stream across the area tonight, otherwise
skies will generally be clear.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...RLS
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 231202
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
702 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

UPDATE...
Issued at 702 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high Pressure ridging south into the FA will maintain dry
conditions into Thursday before the ridge moves east and winds
become southerly and advect moisture into the FA ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The latest GFS keeps slightly drier air in the FA longer than the
previous run but then becomes nearly identical with the previous run
in the eastward progression of precip thereafter/by Thursday evening
with the 500mb trough axis to about Dexter MO 00Z Friday. By 06Z
Friday both it and the weak surface cold front will be east of the
FA. The 00Z ECMWF remains about 3 to 4 hours slower than the GFS and
NAM and will lean toward the faster solution which also lines up
with previous forecasts.

QPF amounts still appear fairly modest with averages of 1/3 to 1/2
inch forecast. The greater amounts are likely across mainly the
northern part of the FA...closer to better upper level dynamics.  In
addition, instability will be fairly decent going into Thursday
evening when the system moves across the FA and for now SPC has a
Slight Risk immediately south of the western half of our FA.

Surface High Pressure will be building across the area late Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the weak cold front. Winds will
quickly back to the southwest Friday as the highest surface pressure
passes to our south. As a result...little change is expected in
temps Friday.

LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Active weather expected in the long term. Regardless of the
noticeable model variance, with respect the the movement of an
upper low from the Rockies into the central states, and the
positioning of a surface front somewhere across/north of the
area, convection is pretty much a given. It will be just a matter
of timing and coverage. The past two runs of the GFS Ensemble mean
depicts reasonably, best chances should arrive late Sunday into
Sunday night, and shift east across the area early next week with
the approach of the upper low. This is not a classic heavy rain
pattern. But multiple rounds of convection, should they line out
favorably, could result in some heavy rain across the CWFA. Strong
storms cannot be ruled out at some point. Best chance may be
Monday should we destabilize enough. That is when a branch of the
upper jet SE of the parent H5 low moves over top of the area
coincident with potentially decent destabilization. It`s possible
Sunday as well (strong storms), mainly SE Missouri westward, but
wind fields are weaker. Meanwhile, given PoPs were removed for
Saturday, will not flip flop that. Not convinced we won`t see
anything (even if isolated at best), given we destabilize by mid
to late afternoon, esp SW 1/3 of the area and with the front
around. Moisture is certainly marginal, and mid level support is
hard to find. Chances Saturday night should be slight as well, and
primarily limited to the NW 1/2 of the area. Temperatures will
continue to be tricky. A blend approach would seem reasonable to
minimize swings due to model variance. However, hedging warmer
seems to be the appropriate trend.

AVIATION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with only scattered high
clouds expected during the TAF forecast period through this evening
with some increase in mid to high clouds thereafter. Winds will be 5
to 10 knots today and then relax to nearly calm levels tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RS
LONG TERM....CN







000
FXUS63 KPAH 230718
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high Pressure ridging south into the FA will maintain dry
conditions into Thursday before the ridge moves east and winds
become southerly and advect moisture into the FA ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The latest GFS keeps slightly drier air in the FA longer than the
previous run but then becomes nearly identical with the previous run
in the eastward progression of precip thereafter/by Thursday evening
with the 500mb trough axis to about Dexter MO 00Z Friday. By 06Z
Friday both it and the weak surface cold front will be east of the
FA. The 00Z ECMWF remains about 3 to 4 hours slower than the GFS and
NAM and will lean toward the faster solution which also lines up
with previous forecasts.

QPF amounts still appear fairly modest with averages of 1/3 to 1/2
inch forecast. The greater amounts are likely across mainly the
northern part of the FA...closer to better upper level dynamics.  In
addition, instability will be fairly decent going into Thursday
evening when the system moves across the FA and for now SPC has a
Slight Risk immediately south of the western half of our FA.

Surface High Pressure will be building across the area late Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the weak cold front. Winds will
quickly back to the southwest Friday as the highest surface pressure
passes to our south. As a result...little change is expected in
temps Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Active weather expected in the long term. Regardless of the
noticeable model variance, with respect the the movement of an
upper low from the Rockies into the central states, and the
positioning of a surface front somewhere across/north of the
area, convection is pretty much a given. It will be just a matter
of timing and coverage. The past two runs of the GFS Ensemble mean
depicts reasonably, best chances should arrive late Sunday into
Sunday night, and shift east across the area early next week with
the approach of the upper low. This is not a classic heavy rain
pattern. But multiple rounds of convection, should they line out
favorably, could result in some heavy rain across the CWFA. Strong
storms cannot be ruled out at some point. Best chance may be
Monday should we destabilize enough. That is when a branch of the
upper jet SE of the parent H5 low moves over top of the area
coincident with potentially decent destabilization. It`s possible
Sunday as well (strong storms), mainly SE Missouri westward, but
wind fields are weaker. Meanwhile, given PoPs were removed for
Saturday, will not flip flop that. Not convinced we won`t see
anything (even if isolated at best), given we destabilize by mid
to late afternoon, esp SW 1/3 of the area and with the front
around. Moisture is certainly marginal, and mid level support is
hard to find. Chances Saturday night should be slight as well, and
primarily limited to the NW 1/2 of the area. Temperatures will
continue to be tricky. A blend approach would seem reasonable to
minimize swings due to model variance. However, hedging warmer
seems to be the appropriate trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with only scattered high
clouds expected during the TAF forecast period through this evening
with some increase in mid to high clouds thereafter. Winds will be 5
to 10 knots during today and then relax to nearly calm levels
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 230550
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014


UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Updated Aviation section for 06Z TAF Issuance.

&&

SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cool dry advection is ongoing across the area today, and the last
of the cu have just about pushed to the southeast. North winds
have been gusting up to 20 mph at times today.

Surface high pressure will nose southward into the area tonight,
and the gradient will relax. However, am not sure whether the
winds will become calm for any prolonged period overnight. With
dewpoints forecast to be well into the 30s and clear skies,
the potential exists for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s
if winds are calm. This brings up the possibility of frost.
Guidance generally keeps temperatures at 40 degrees or in the
lower 40s, so confidence is not great enough to mention even
patchy frost at this time.

Raw model guidance is much more agressive than statistical
guidance in returning low-level moisture across the area on
Wednesday. With easterly low-level winds forecast, decided to lean
heavily toward the statistical guidance, which takes RH`s in the
east down to near 30%. With relatively light winds, this should
not be a major concern for fire weather.

Southeast winds will increase Wednesday night, which should result
in a rather mild night. Generally went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night.

Our next storm system is still on track to move through the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The guidance has been rock solid
on this timing for a few days now, so the main question now is
coverage. We will be on the southern edge of the mid and upper
level storm system and it will be approaching rather quickly. This
will not allow much time for southerly return flow of moisture
into the area. A look at 12Z NAM and GFS soundings across the area
indicate that moisture and instability will be lacking, and may
struggle to get together along or ahead of the front. However, figure
that the forcing will be strong enough to overcome the lack of
moisture and instability to generate scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

The wind field will be impressive from the surface to 3km, with
enough SRH to support rotating updrafts. The problem is the mid
and upper level flow is relatively weak, resulting in weak storm-
relative flow. This could lead to outflow dominated storms, and a
tug of war between the tendency for rotating updrafts and outflow
dominated storms. A few storms may briefly approach severe limits
with damaging downburst winds the main threat. However, would not
expect a persistent severe threat with any individual storms.
Figure the main convective zone will run north to south right
through the middle of the area at 00Z Friday.

Will leave a small PoP in the far east after 06Z, but it may be
out of the area by then. Certainly should have nothing left by 12Z
Friday.

LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

At the beginning of the period weak high pressure at the surface and
rising heights aloft should be enough to keep things dry Friday and
Friday night. According to the Canadian model, precipitation
chances make their way back into the CWA on Saturday as a frontal
boundary sags southward into the lower Ohio valley. During the same
time period the GFS and ECMWF show no discernible surface boundary
and an intensification of the upper ridge to our west thus keeping
the precipitation at bay a little longer. Decided to go with the
majority and not bring precipitation into our area on Saturday.

Saturday night a storm system begins to take shape over the central
plains. Depending on which model solution you buy into, this will
either keep the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area or lift
a warm front northeast toward our CWA along with a slight weakening
of the upper ridging.  Either way it should provide better
precipitation chances for our area, it`s just that the orientation
of the precipitation will vary per model solution.

Precipitation chances increase even more Sunday, Sunday night, and
into Monday as the aforementioned system begins to move out of the
plains and keeps an E-W quasi-stationary frontal trough/boundary
across our CWA. Model solutions still a bit different on track and
placement of the upper level and surface features with the
approaching system, but precipitation chances should be elevated
regardless.

As the surface low and associated front with this system slowly push
across our area Monday night, precipitation chances may diminish
from west to east. Hard to say how things are going to pan out on
Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a huge dry slot and higher pressure being
pulled into our area keeping it dry while the GFS shows a pinwheel
effect and drags precipitation along and north of the low southward
back across the CWA. Either scenario looks feasible so decided to go
with chc POPS area wide. No doubt these later periods will need to
be adjusted as we draw closer to the event.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday but should be
below normal on Tuesday.

AVIATION...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with only scattered
high clouds expected during the planning period portion of the
forecast. Winds will remain nearly calm at night and be 5 to 10
knots during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RS
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...RS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 230320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cool dry advection is ongoing across the area today, and the last
of the cu have just about pushed to the southeast. North winds
have been gusting up to 20 mph at times today.

Surface high pressure will nose southward into the area tonight,
and the gradient will relax. However, am not sure whether the
winds will become calm for any prolonged period overnight. With
dewpoints forecast to be well into the 30s and clear skies,
the potential exists for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s
if winds are calm. This brings up the possibility of frost.
Guidance generally keeps temperatures at 40 degrees or in the
lower 40s, so confidence is not great enough to mention even
patchy frost at this time.

Raw model guidance is much more agressive than statistical
guidance in returning low-level moisture across the area on
Wednesday. With easterly low-level winds forecast, decided to lean
heavily toward the statistical guidance, which takes RH`s in the
east down to near 30%. With relatively light winds, this should
not be a major concern for fire weather.

Southeast winds will increase Wednesday night, which should result
in a rather mild night. Generally went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night.

Our next storm system is still on track to move through the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The guidance has been rock solid
on this timing for a few days now, so the main question now is
coverage. We will be on the southern edge of the mid and upper
level storm system and it will be approaching rather quickly. This
will not allow much time for southerly return flow of moisture
into the area. A look at 12Z NAM and GFS soundings across the area
indicate that moisture and instability will be lacking, and may
struggle to get together along or ahead of the front. However, figure
that the forcing will be strong enough to overcome the lack of
moisture and instability to generate scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

The wind field will be impressive from the surface to 3km, with
enough SRH to support rotating updrafts. The problem is the mid
and upper level flow is relatively weak, resulting in weak storm-
relative flow. This could lead to outflow dominated storms, and a
tug of war between the tendency for rotating updrafts and outflow
dominated storms. A few storms may briefly approach severe limits
with damaging downburst winds the main threat. However, would not
expect a persistent severe threat with any individual storms.
Figure the main convective zone will run north to south right
through the middle of the area at 00Z Friday.

Will leave a small PoP in the far east after 06Z, but it may be
out of the area by then. Certainly should have nothing left by 12Z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

At the beginning of the period weak high pressure at the surface and
rising heights aloft should be enough to keep things dry Friday and
Friday night. According to the Canadian model, precipitation
chances make their way back into the CWA on Saturday as a frontal
boundary sags southward into the lower Ohio valley. During the same
time period the GFS and ECMWF show no discernible surface boundary
and an intensification of the upper ridge to our west thus keeping
the precipitation at bay a little longer. Decided to go with the
majority and not bring precipitation into our area on Saturday.

Saturday night a storm system begins to take shape over the central
plains. Depending on which model solution you buy into, this will
either keep the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area or lift
a warm front northeast toward our CWA along with a slight weakening
of the upper ridging.  Either way it should provide better
precipitation chances for our area, it`s just that the orientation
of the precipitation will vary per model solution.

Precipitation chances increase even more Sunday, Sunday night, and
into Monday as the aforementioned system begins to move out of the
plains and keeps an E-W quasi-stationary frontal trough/boundary
across our CWA. Model solutions still a bit different on track and
placement of the upper level and surface features with the
approaching system, but precipitation chances should be elevated
regardless.

As the surface low and associated front with this system slowly push
across our area Monday night, precipitation chances may diminish
from west to east. Hard to say how things are going to pan out on
Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a huge dry slot and higher pressure being
pulled into our area keeping it dry while the GFS shows a pinwheel
effect and drags precipitation along and north of the low southward
back across the CWA. Either scenario looks feasible so decided to go
with chc POPS area wide. No doubt these later periods will need to
be adjusted as we draw closer to the event.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday but should be
below normal on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

High pressure will keep VFR conditions prevalant, with only some
scattered high clouds expected during the planning period portion
of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 221958
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cool dry advection is ongoing across the area today, and the last
of the cu have just about pushed to the southeast. North winds
have been gusting up to 20 mph at times today.

Surface high pressure will nose southward into the area tonight,
and the gradient will relax. However, am not sure whether the
winds will become calm for any prolonged period overnight. With
dewpoints forecast to be well into the 30s and clear skies,
the potential exists for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s
if winds are calm. This brings up the possibility of frost.
Guidance generally keeps temperatures at 40 degrees or in the
lower 40s, so confidence is not great enough to mention even
patchy frost at this time.

Raw model guidance is much more agressive than statistical
guidance in returning low-level moisture across the area on
Wednesday. With easterly low-level winds forecast, decided to lean
heavily toward the statistical guidance, which takes RH`s in the
east down to near 30%. With relatively light winds, this should
not be a major concern for fire weather.

Southeast winds will increase Wednesday night, which should result
in a rather mild night. Generally went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night.

Our next storm system is still on track to move through the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The guidance has been rock solid
on this timing for a few days now, so the main question now is
coverage. We will be on the southern edge of the mid and upper
level storm system and it will be approaching rather quickly. This
will not allow much time for southerly return flow of moisture
into the area. A look at 12Z NAM and GFS soundings across the area
indicate that moisture and instability will be lacking, and may
struggle to get together along or ahead of the front. However, figure
that the forcing will be strong enough to overcome the lack of
moisture and instability to generate scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

The wind field will be impressive from the surface to 3km, with
enough SRH to support rotating updrafts. The problem is the mid
and upper level flow is relatively weak, resulting in weak storm-
relative flow. This could lead to outflow dominated storms, and a
tug of war between the tendency for rotating updrafts and outflow
dominated storms. A few storms may briefly approach severe limits
with damaging downburst winds the main threat. However, would not
expect a persistent severe threat with any individual storms.
Figure the main convective zone will run north to south right
through the middle of the area at 00Z Friday.

Will leave a small PoP in the far east after 06Z, but it may be
out of the area by then. Certainly should have nothing left by 12Z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

At the beginning of the period weak high pressure at the surface and
rising heights aloft should be enough to keep things dry Friday and
Friday night. According to the Canadian model, precipitation
chances make their way back into the CWA on Saturday as a frontal
boundary sags southward into the lower Ohio valley. During the same
time period the GFS and ECMWF show no discernible surface boundary
and an intensification of the upper ridge to our west thus keeping
the precipitation at bay a little longer. Decided to go with the
majority and not bring precipitation into our area on Saturday.

Saturday night a storm system begins to take shape over the central
plains. Depending on which model solution you buy into, this will
either keep the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area or lift
a warm front northeast toward our CWA along with a slight weakening
of the upper ridging.  Either way it should provide better
precipitation chances for our area, it`s just that the orientation
of the precipitation will vary per model solution.

Precipitation chances increase even more Sunday, Sunday night, and
into Monday as the aforementioned system begins to move out of the
plains and keeps an E-W quasi-stationary frontal trough/boundary
across our CWA. Model solutions still a bit different on track and
placement of the upper level and surface features with the
approaching system, but precipitation chances should be elevated
regardless.

As the surface low and associated front with this system slowly push
across our area Monday night, precipitation chances may diminish
from west to east. Hard to say how things are going to pan out on
Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a huge dry slot and higher pressure being
pulled into our area keeping it dry while the GFS shows a pinwheel
effect and drags precipitation along and north of the low southward
back across the CWA. Either scenario looks feasible so decided to go
with chc POPS area wide. No doubt these later periods will need to
be adjusted as we draw closer to the event.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday but should be
below normal on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Northerly
winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 20-22 knots will become light
and variable after 01Z, then pick back up out of the northeast aob
10 knots after 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 221718 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front just northwest of the
PAH forecast area. Based on timing and model guidance, the cold
front and any associated isolated showers should exit southeast
portions of the fa by 16z. Clearing skies are expected through the
morning, though the cu rule implies we could see some fair weather
cu across our eastern counties this afternoon. North winds will
help bring in some cooler air, and temperatures will reach near
seasonal readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and an upper level
ridge over the region will keep conditions dry and seasonal into
Wednesday. Very dry air in place over the area will lead to mostly
clear skies through Wednesday. Winds will gradually shift back to
the south late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will
aid in increasing moisture across the area ahead of our next
weather system.

Models show a low pressure system over western Iowa by 12z Thursday.
The associated cold front will move across the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Thursday into Thursday evening.  NAM is
drier and a little faster than GFS and ECMWF, and only produces
around a tenth or less of QPF. GFS and ECMWF produce more in the
quarter to half inch range. With fairly limited moisture return
ahead of the front, will stay on the lower end with QPF amounts.
As for precip chances, models bring precip into far west portions
of the PAH fa between 12z and 18z Thursday, and included slight to
to chance pops for portions of mainly southeast Missouri Thursday
morning. By Thursday afternoon, models show precip becoming fairly
widespread across the western two thirds of the PAH fa, and went
with slight chance pops east to likely pops west. Thursday
evening, the front should be moving across eastern portions of the
fa, and went with likely pops east to slight chance west. After
00z, kept just some slight chance pops in our far east counties.

Models are showing LIs anywhere from 0 to -5 and CAPE values of
800 to 1400 J/kg, mainly Thursday afternoon. SPC has our entire region
in a Day 3 see text. Combined with the potential for quite a bit of
sunshine/heating before clouds/precip spread across the area,
there will be some potential for a few strong to severe storms
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Low confidence continues with respect to the evolution of an
increasingly active and somewhat amplified mid tropospheric flow
pattern in the long term. How this pattern unfolds will also
determine how far south a frontal boundary will make it before
stalling and/or wavering somewhere across the region Saturday
through Monday. The models are showing extreme run to run
inconsistencies. Yesterday, the ECMWF was farther north with the
front, more warm sector for us, while a consensus of the
GFS/GEM/UKMET were much farther south with the front. The 00z GFS
(with the trend seen in the last 4 runs) is now much farther north
with the front, and warm sector for us, a complete flip flop, while
the ECMWF shows a farther southward progression of the front,
stalling it somewhere across our region. Needless to say, this could
spell out into elevated statistical MAE`s with temps and dew points.
We used a blend of previous numbers, and the latest ECMWF values, as
it seems a compromise of solutions, would be to fall somewhere in
between the wide array of possibilities, for now.

Meanwhile, with the increasingly active mid level flow pattern and
presence of the frontal boundary, chances of convection will be in
the forecast Saturday through Monday, after a dry Friday. Pattern
recognition suggests convection is highly likely. However, to
minimize timing errors and factor in coverage uncertainty, will
continue with mid chance PoPs (40-50 percent or so max) in the
Sunday through Monday time frame, as an upper low over the central
CONUS is forecast to move toward the area. Just slight chance PoPs
for now Saturday through Saturday night, warranted by the presence
of the front, and modest moisture and instability seen in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Northerly
winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 20-22 knots will become light
and variable after 01Z, then pick back up out of the northeast aob
10 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 220816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front just northwest of the
PAH forecast area. Based on timing and model guidance, the cold
front and any associated isolated showers should exit southeast
portions of the fa by 16z. Clearing skies are expected through the
morning, though the cu rule implies we could see some fair weather
cu across our eastern counties this afternoon. North winds will
help bring in some cooler air, and temperatures will reach near
seasonal readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and an upper level
ridge over the region will keep conditions dry and seasonal into
Wednesday. Very dry air in place over the area will lead to mostly
clear skies through Wednesday. Winds will gradually shift back to
the south late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will
aid in increasing moisture across the area ahead of our next
weather system.

Models show a low pressure system over western Iowa by 12z Thursday.
The associated cold front will move across the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Thursday into Thursday evening.  NAM is
drier and a little faster than GFS and ECMWF, and only produces
around a tenth or less of QPF. GFS and ECMWF produce more in the
quarter to half inch range. With fairly limited moisture return
ahead of the front, will stay on the lower end with QPF amounts.
As for precip chances, models bring precip into far west portions
of the PAH fa between 12z and 18z Thursday, and included slight to
to chance pops for portions of mainly southeast Missouri Thursday
morning. By Thursday afternoon, models show precip becoming fairly
widespread across the western two thirds of the PAH fa, and went
with slight chance pops east to likely pops west. Thursday
evening, the front should be moving across eastern portions of the
fa, and went with likely pops east to slight chance west. After
00z, kept just some slight chance pops in our far east counties.

Models are showing LIs anywhere from 0 to -5 and CAPE values of
800 to 1400 J/kg, mainly Thursday afternoon. SPC has our entire region
in a Day 3 see text. Combined with the potential for quite a bit of
sunshine/heating before clouds/precip spread across the area,
there will be some potential for a few strong to severe storms
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Low confidence continues with respect to the evolution of an
increasingly active and somewhat amplified mid tropospheric flow
pattern in the long term. How this pattern unfolds will also
determine how far south a frontal boundary will make it before
stalling and/or wavering somewhere across the region Saturday
through Monday. The models are showing extreme run to run
inconsistencies. Yesterday, the ECMWF was farther north with the
front, more warm sector for us, while a consensus of the
GFS/GEM/UKMET were much farther south with the front. The 00z GFS
(with the trend seen in the last 4 runs) is now much farther north
with the front, and warm sector for us, a complete flip flop, while
the ECMWF shows a farther southward progression of the front,
stalling it somewhere across our region. Needless to say, this could
spell out into elevated statistical MAE`s with temps and dew points.
We used a blend of previous numbers, and the latest ECMWF values, as
it seems a compromise of solutions, would be to fall somewhere in
between the wide array of possibilities, for now.

Meanwhile, with the increasingly active mid level flow pattern and
presence of the frontal boundary, chances of convection will be in
the forecast Saturday through Monday, after a dry Friday. Pattern
recognition suggests convection is highly likely. However, to
minimize timing errors and factor in coverage uncertainty, will
continue with mid chance PoPs (40-50 percent or so max) in the
Sunday through Monday time frame, as an upper low over the central
CONUS is forecast to move toward the area. Just slight chance PoPs
for now Saturday through Saturday night, warranted by the presence
of the front, and modest moisture and instability seen in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR clouds should move southeast with clearing skies across the TAF
sites between 12z and 16z. A few fair weather cumulus may develop
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10
to 15 kts with a few higher gusts, becoming light north to
northeast after 00z.  No vsby restrictions expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RST






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