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000
FXUS63 KPAH 302340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The late morning forecast discussion update addressed the overall
character of the Freeze Watch for the weekend. From a Watch
perspective, did not make a distinction between freeze (32F to
28F) and hard freeze (mainly associated with temperatures below
28F) duration, but the net effect is that the eventual Freeze
Warning issuance will be to end the growing season. The only
caveat is whether we will experience a brief winter warm up which
could cause the germination of cool season plants. For now the
probability of a warm up is extremely low and not addressed in the
freeze watch product.

Most of the effective forcing associated with the approaching
cold front remain at mid and upper levels (generally between
6kft-20kft AGL). However, despite the drier air at lower levels.
mid-level moisture and lift should be sufficient to produce a very
narrow band of surface-based precipitation. Radar coverage of
precipitation will likely remain greater than surface coverage
through at least 5 pm CDT, but as the lower atmosphere cools,
saturation will increase at a greater rate leading to better chances
of precipitation reaching the surface through the evening hours.

There will be at least a 2 to 4 hour delay following the surface
front before the post frontal surface wind gradient kicks in
across the area. This gradient will remain dominant in advance of
the high through at least 5 to 6 pm CDT Friday. After that time
the wind gradient will slowly relax from southwest to northeast.

Most of the cooling going into Friday night will be dominated by
cold air advection, while most of the cooling Saturday night will
be associated with the conversion of air mass and more ideal
radiational loss, especially at night.

Trends the last 48 hours have been toward a 1-2 degree lowering of
minimum temperatures over the weekend. Therefore, anticipate a
switch toward a freeze warning within the next 6 to 15 hours for
our forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

We start off Sunday morning with the ending of the headline Freeze
Watch and cool start. The air mass will start modifying again, as
the surface high shifts east, and southerlies return coincident
with upper ridging/heights rising. Despite the cold start, we
should still see about a 25 degree diurnal rebound. And then we
climb back into the 60s Monday.

This sets the stage for the incoming storm system. Superblend
paints a broad swath Pop seemingly a little early...Monday night.
We tried to refine this pop to mainly the Ozarks of Semo, then
spread it over the remainder of the FA Tuesday. We also heightened
pops a little Tuesday, and Tuesday night, as the likely event is
signaling categorical. And similarly, we trimmed west to east end
pops Tues nite-Wed, to hopefully hit the specific trending a
little better than the blend. This includes the accompanying
thunder chance mention.

After the post frontal cooldown, conditions return to seasonal for
day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Strong cold front will pass through the region very early on Friday
morning. Ahead of the front...some showers will occur tonight. Vsbys
should remain vfr in the rain...though brief periods of mvfr cannot
be ruled out. Cigs will remain vfr until the front arrives...then
several hours of mvfr cigs are expected along and immediately behind
the front. Winds will be light until the frontal passage...then
strong gusty northwest winds are expected on Friday. Wind speeds at
4k feet will be near 40 knots...and steep lapse rates are expected
up to that level in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY










000
FXUS63 KPAH 301938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The late morning forecast discussion update addressed the overall
character of the Freeze Watch for the weekend. From a Watch
perspective, did not make a distinction between freeze (32F to
28F) and hard freeze (mainly associated with temperatures below
28F) duration, but the net effect is that the eventual Freeze
Warning issuance will be to end the growing season. The only
caveat is whether we will experience a brief winter warm up which
could cause the germination of cool season plants. For now the
probability of a warm up is extremely low and not addressed in the
freeze watch product.

Most of the effective forcing associated with the approaching
cold front remain at mid and upper levels (generally between
6kft-20kft AGL). However, despite the drier air at lower levels.
mid-level moisture and lift should be sufficient to produce a very
narrow band of surface-based precipitation. Radar coverage of
precipitation will likely remain greater than surface coverage through
at least 5 pm CDT, but as the lower atmosphere cools, saturation
will increase at a greater rate leading to better chances of precipitation
reaching the surface through the evening hours.

There will be at least a 2 to 4 hour delay following the surface
front before the post frontal surface wind gradient kicks in
across the area. This gradient will remain dominant in advance of
the high through at least 5 to 6 pm CDT Friday. After that time
the wind gradient will slowly relax from southwest to northeast.

Most of the cooling going into Friday night will be dominated by
cold air advection, while most of the cooling Saturday night will
be associated with the conversion of air mass and more ideal
radiational loss, especially at night.

Trends the last 48 hours have been toward a 1-2 degree lowering of
minimum temperatures over the weekend. Therefore, anticipate a
switch toward a freeze warning within the next 6 to 15 hours for
our forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 149 PM
CDT THU OCT 30 2014

We start off Sunday morning with the ending of the headline Freeze
Watch and cool start. The air mass will start modifying again, as
the surface high shifts east, and southerlies return coincident
with upper ridging/heights rising. Despite the cold start, we
should still see about a 25 degree diurnal rebound. And then we
climb back into the 60s Monday.

This sets the stage for the incoming storm system. Superblend
paints a broad swath Pop seemingly a little early...Monday night.
We tried to refine this pop to mainly the Ozarks of Semo, then
spread it over the remainder of the FA Tuesday. We also heightened
pops a little Tuesday, and Tuesday night, as the likely event is
signaling categorical. And similarly, we trimmed west to east end
pops Tues nite-Wed, to hopefully hit the specific trending a
little better than the blend. This includes the accompanying
thunder chance mention.

After the post frontal cooldown, conditions return to seasonal for
day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

With the approach of the cold front, most ceilings will remain in
the VFR category through the first 18 hours of the forecast
period, given that most of the ceilings will likely remain at or
above 4-6kft AGL. Given the short temporal and spatial probability
of seeing surface-based precipitation, left a mention of showers
as vicinity showers. This may have to be addressed with the 00z
issuance as the lower atmosphere cools.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 301904
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Just issued a freeze watch for this weekend for the entire WFO PAH
forecast area. This mainly an technical product issuance, since
freeze warnings will likely be issued late tonight or Friday. From
a priority aspect, the focus will be on freezing temperatures, but
minor frost development will occur over Southern Illinois late Friday
night and widespread frost development Saturday Night and Sunday morning.

The wind gradient will be much stronger through the period from
Friday night into Saturday morning, so most of the freezing
temperature impact will be purely associated with cold air
advection and may have lesser impact in places with no wind
protection. The impact will be greatest Saturday night and Sunday
with essentially no wind and sky cover issues to inhibit nocturnal
radiational loss.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA this afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of the
northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front toward
our region. With moisture still expected to be somewhat limited with
this feature, precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Tonight with the passage of said low and front, the deeper moisture
and precipitation chances will shift to the northeast half of our
CWA which will generally be along and north of the track of the low.
Small precipitation chances may linger into Friday over the far
eastern sections of our CWA on the back side of the system in the
wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s to lower 30s) of the season will begin to
overspread the region. The main limitation for frost late Friday
night will be gradient wind flow which will inhibit widespread
frost development. The best frost potential Saturday morning will be
patchy in protected areas. Even though frost formation is expected
to be limited, temperatures dipping to at or below freezing by early
Saturday morning should bring an end to the growing season.

Temperatures should be even colder late Saturday night as the high
is forecast to be centered over the region. With winds expected to
be calm area wide late Saturday night, frost formation should be
widespread.

Even with temperatures expected to bottom out at or below freezing
Friday night and especially Saturday night, for a couple of reasons
will refrain from issuing any frost/freeze headlines at this time
and will punt to the day shift. The first reason is that with the
winds staying up Friday night, there maybe enough shallow mixing to
bump temperatures up a degree or two, especially over the southern
half of our CWA. Secondly, Friday night is the 4th period of the
forecast which pushes the time limits of the definition of a watch
product. Decided to continue with a strongly worded Special Weather
Statement to address the upcoming cold snap.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

We start off Sunday morning with the ending of the headline Freeze
Watch and cool start. The airmass will start modifying again, as
the surface high shifts east, and southerlies return coincident
with upper ridging/heights rising. Despite the cold start, we
should still see about a 25 degree diurnal rebound. And then we
climb back into the 60s Monday.

This sets the stage for the incoming storm system. Superblend
paints a broad swath Pop seemingly a little early...Monday night.
We tried to refine this pop to mainly the Ozarks of Semo, then
spread it over the remainder of the FA Tuesday. We also heightened
pops a little Tuesday, and Tuesday night, as the likely event is
signaling categorical. And similarly, we trimmed west to east end
pops Tues nite-Wed, to hopefully hit the specific trending a
little better than the blend. This includes the accompanying
thunder chance mention.

After the post frontal cooldown, conditions return to seasonal for
day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Will introduce a mid cloud deck for today, with clouds lowering
toward 4-5k/ft this evening and tonight, and a chance of showers at
KEVV and KOWB. Winds will be light through the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 301600
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Just issued a freeze watch for this weekend for the entire WFO PAH
forecast area. This mainly an technical product issuance, since
freeze warnings will likely be issued late tonight or Friday. From
a priority aspect, the focus will be on freezing temperatures, but
minor frost development will occur over Southern Illinois late Friday
night and widespread frost development Saturday Night and Sunday morning.

The wind gradient will be much stronger through the period from
Friday night into Saturday morning, so most of the freezing
temperature impact will be purely associated with cold air
advection and may have lesser impact in places with no wind
protection. The impact will be greatest Saturday night and Sunday
with essentially no wind and sky cover issues to inhibit nocturnal
radiational loss.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA this afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of the
northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front toward
our region. With moisture still expected to be somewhat limited with
this feature, precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Tonight with the passage of said low and front, the deeper moisture
and precipitation chances will shift to the northeast half of our
CWA which will generally be along and north of the track of the low.
Small precipitation chances may linger into Friday over the far
eastern sections of our CWA on the back side of the system in the
wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s to lower 30s) of the season will begin to
overspread the region. The main limitation for frost late Friday
night will be gradient wind flow which will inhibit widespread
frost development. The best frost potential Saturday morning will be
patchy in protected areas. Even though frost formation is expected
to be limited, temperatures dipping to at or below freezing by early
Saturday morning should bring an end to the growing season.

Temperatures should be even colder late Saturday night as the high
is forecast to be centered over the region. With winds expected to
be calm area wide late Saturday night, frost formation should be
widespread.

Even with temperatures expected to bottom out at or below freezing
Friday night and especially Saturday night, for a couple of reasons
will refrain from issuing any frost/freeze headlines at this time
and will punt to the day shift. The first reason is that with the
winds staying up Friday night, there maybe enough shallow mixing to
bump temperatures up a degree or two, especially over the southern
half of our CWA. Secondly, Friday night is the 4th period of the
forecast which pushes the time limits of the definition of a watch
product. Decided to continue with a strongly worded Special Weather
Statement to address the upcoming cold snap.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Sunday and Monday should remain dry with an upper level ridge making
its way across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
Surface high pressure east of the PAH forecast area will give us
southerly winds beginning on Sunday and lead to a gradual warm up.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Sunday and Sunday night,
warming up to near seasonal readings for Monday and Monday night.

Models show a low pressure system sliding across southern Canada,
bringing a cold front into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
GFS is the fastest model spreading precip into and across the fa
late Monday night into Tuesday night.  The latest ECMWF is trending
slower than its previous run, and now focuses precip more on Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.  Leaned more toward the more consistent
timing of the GFS.  Continued with chance and slight chance pops for
our northwest half of counties Monday night, then chance and likely
pops Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Precip chances should taper off
from northwest to southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Will introduce a mid cloud deck for today, with clouds lowering
toward 4-5k/ft this evening and tonight, and a chance of showers at
KEVV and KOWB. Winds will be light through the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 301128
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA this afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of the
northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front toward
our region. With moisture still expected to be somewhat limited with
this feature, precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Tonight with the passage of said low and front, the deeper moisture
and precipitation chances will shift to the northeast half of our
CWA which will generally be along and north of the track of the low.
Small precipitation chances may linger into Friday over the far
eastern sections of our CWA on the back side of the system in the
wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s to lower 30s) of the season will begin to
overspread the region. The main limitation for frost late Friday
night will be gradient wind flow which will inhibit widespread
frost development. The best frost potential Saturday morning will be
patchy in protected areas. Even though frost formation is expected
to be limited, temperatures dipping to at or below freezing by early
Saturday morning should bring an end to the growing season.

Temperatures should be even colder late Saturday night as the high
is forecast to be centered over the region. With winds expected to
be calm area wide late Saturday night, frost formation should be
widespread.

Even with temperatures expected to bottom out at or below freezing
Friday night and especially Saturday night, for a couple of reasons
will refrain from issuing any frost/freeze headlines at this time
and will punt to the day shift. The first reason is that with the
winds staying up Friday night, there maybe enough shallow mixing to
bump temperatures up a degree or two, especially over the southern
half of our CWA. Secondly, Friday night is the 4th period of the
forecast which pushes the time limits of the definition of a watch
product. Decided to continue with a strongly worded Special Weather
Statement to address the upcoming cold snap.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Sunday and Monday should remain dry with an upper level ridge making
its way across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
Surface high pressure east of the PAH forecast area will give us
southerly winds beginning on Sunday and lead to a gradual warm up.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Sunday and Sunday night,
warming up to near seasonal readings for Monday and Monday night.

Models show a low pressure system sliding across southern Canada,
bringing a cold front into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
GFS is the fastest model spreading precip into and across the fa
late Monday night into Tuesday night.  The latest ECMWF is trending
slower than its previous run, and now focuses precip more on Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.  Leaned more toward the more consistent
timing of the GFS.  Continued with chance and slight chance pops for
our northwest half of counties Monday night, then chance and likely
pops Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Precip chances should taper off
from northwest to southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Will introduce a mid cloud deck for today, with clouds lowering
toward 4-5k/ft this evening and tonight, and a chance of showers at
KEVV and KOWB. Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS63 KPAH 300805
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA this afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of the
northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front toward
our region. With moisture still expected to be somewhat limited with
this feature, precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Tonight with the passage of said low and front, the deeper moisture
and precipitation chances will shift to the northeast half of our
CWA which will generally be along and north of the track of the low.
Small precipitation chances may linger into Friday over the far
eastern sections of our CWA on the back side of the system in the
wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s to lower 30s) of the season will begin to
overspread the region. The main limitation for frost late Friday
night will be gradient wind flow which will inhibit widespread
frost development. The best frost potential Saturday morning will be
patchy in protected areas. Even though frost formation is expected
to be limited, temperatures dipping to at or below freezing by early
Saturday morning should bring an end to the growing season.

Temperatures should be even colder late Saturday night as the high
is forecast to be centered over the region. With winds expected to
be calm area wide late Saturday night, frost formation should be
widespread.

Even with temperatures expected to bottom out at or below freezing
Friday night and especially Saturday night, for a couple of reasons
will refrain from issuing any frost/freeze headlines at this time
and will punt to the day shift. The first reason is that with the
winds staying up Friday night, there maybe enough shallow mixing to
bump temperatures up a degree or two, especially over the southern
half of our CWA. Secondly, Friday night is the 4th period of the
forecast which pushes the time limits of the definition of a watch
product. Decided to continue with a strongly worded Special Weather
Statement to address the upcoming cold snap.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Sunday and Monday should remain dry with an upper level ridge making
its way across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
Surface high pressure east of the PAH forecast area will give us
southerly winds beginning on Sunday and lead to a gradual warm up.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Sunday and Sunday night,
warming up to near seasonal readings for Monday and Monday night.

Models show a low pressure system sliding across southern Canada,
bringing a cold front into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
GFS is the fastest model spreading precip into and across the fa
late Monday night into Tuesday night.  The latest ECMWF is trending
slower than its previous run, and now focuses precip more on Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.  Leaned more toward the more consistent
timing of the GFS.  Continued with chance and slight chance pops for
our northwest half of counties Monday night, then chance and likely
pops Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Precip chances should taper off
from northwest to southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Aside from the possibility of MVFR fog at KCGI from 08-13Z, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period. As high pressure moves
off to the east today, an upper level disturbance will push a cold
front across the sites tonight which may produce scattered
showers late in the period at KEVV/KOWB where moisture will be
deepest. Calm to light and variable winds early will pick up out
of the south AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 300527 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the surface High settles overhead tonight, winds will calm and
clear skies will allow for temps to drop near their dew points,
which should be running in the 30s throughout the region. We`ll
insert patchy frost mention for nearly all sites that spend at
least an hour or two in the 30s. Clouds will begin increasing
either late tonight, or early tmrw, as the next wave of energy
approaches. It will touch off showery pcpn tmrw into tmrw nite,
and we`ll carry sprinkles or chc pops for those time periods
pretty much fa-wide. This trof of energy makes passage by early
Friday and offers a reinforcing shot of cool air headed into the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 pm CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CORRECTION: Mention of freeze advisory should be freeze warning.

Unless the upcoming evening or midnight forecasters decided to issue
a freeze watch for this weekend, will hold off any formal freeze
watch and/or warbing headline until the Thursday daytime forecast
package.

The two primary reasons for this slight delay in freeze headlines was
to 1) reduce some confusion with the occurance of frost later
tonight, and 2) allow a greater likelihood of collaborative
issuance of freeze headlines with NWS offices to the
North/East/South of the WFO PAH forecast area.

Although the probability remains quite high (80-95%) that
freezing/sbufreezing temperatures will occur over all of the WFO
PAH forecast area late Friday night and early Saturday morning,
then again Saturday night and Sunday morning, prefer to pin down
the timing of onset, duration, and actual temperature range closer
for public output.

The main limitation for Saturday morning will be the extent of
gradient wind flow over Southwest Indiana and the West Kentucky
Pennyrile region. These wind will definitely inhibit any frost
development. The only frost potential Saturday morning will likely be
patchy occurrence in protected area in Southern Illinois shortly
before daybreak as the wind gradient diminishes and the inversion
sets up. Given the shorter duration of freezing or sub-freezing
temperatures toward a hard freeze, may need to re-issue a freeze
headline for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For Sunday, depending on the duration of freezing/sub-freezing
temperatures Friday night into Saturday, may need to continue the
potential for a freeze warning for Saturday night into Sunday
morning for part of the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of the
freezing temperatures, widespread frost will be expected by
Sunday morning.

In lieu of a Freeze Watch for this package, will continue a
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and a special weather
statement, as well as social media.

With respect to rain chances early next week, GFS ensemble
climatology (1985-2010) suggest a 85 to 95 percent chance of
seeing around an inch or more over Southeast Missouri and
Southwest Illinois, west of Interstate 57 from Monday night into
Tuesday. The signal remains strong for rain on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, so kept chance to likely PoPs/Weather in place for
that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Aside from the possibility of MVFR fog at KCGI from 08-13Z, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period. As high pressure moves
off to the east today, an upper level disturbance will push a cold
front across the sites tonight which may produce scattered
showers late in the period at KEVV/KOWB where moisture will be
deepest. Calm to light and variable winds early will pick up out
of the south AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 292325 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the surface High settles overhead tonight, winds will calm and
clear skies will allow for temps to drop near their dew points,
which should be running in the 30s throughout the region. We`ll
insert patchy frost mention for nearly all sites that spend at
least an hour or two in the 30s. Clouds will begin increasing
either late tonight, or early tmrw, as the next wave of energy
approaches. It will touch off showery pcpn tmrw into tmrw nite,
and we`ll carry sprinkles or chc pops for those time periods
pretty much fa-wide. This trof of energy makes passage by early
Friday and offers a reinforcing shot of cool air headed into the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 pm CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CORRECTION: Mention of freeze advisory should be freeze warning.

Unless the upcoming evening or midnight forecasters decided to issue
a freeze watch for this weekend, will hold off any formal freeze
watch and/or warbing headline until the Thursday daytime forecast
package.

The two primary reasons for this slight delay in freeze headlines was
to 1) reduce some confusion with the occurance of frost later
tonight, and 2) allow a greater likelihood of collaborative
issuance of freeze headlines with NWS offices to the
North/East/South of the WFO PAH forecast area.

Although the probability remains quite high (80-95%) that
freezing/sbufreezing temperatures will occur over all of the WFO
PAH forecast area late Friday night and early Saturday morning,
then again Saturday night and Sunday morning, prefer to pin down
the timing of onset, duration, and actual temperature range closer
for public output.

The main limitation for Saturday morning will be the extent of
gradient wind flow over Southwest Indiana and the West Kentucky
Pennyrile region. These wind will definitely inhibit any frost
development. The only frost potential Saturday morning will likely be
patchy occurrence in protected area in Southern Illinois shortly
before daybreak as the wind gradient diminishes and the inversion
sets up. Given the shorter duration of freezing or sub-freezing
temperatures toward a hard freeze, may need to re-issue a freeze
headline for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For Sunday, depending on the duration of freezing/sub-freezing
temperatures Friday night into Saturday, may need to continue the
potential for a freeze warning for Saturday night into Sunday
morning for part of the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of the
freezing temperatures, widespread frost will be expected by
Sunday morning.

In lieu of a Freeze Watch for this package, will continue a
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and a special weather
statement, as well as social media.

With respect to rain chances early next week, GFS ensemble
climatology (1985-2010) suggest a 85 to 95 percent chance of
seeing around an inch or more over Southeast Missouri and
Southwest Illinois, west of Interstate 57 from Monday night into
Tuesday. The signal remains strong for rain on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, so kept chance to likely PoPs/Weather in place for
that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Aside from the possibility of MVFR fog at KCGI from 08-13Z, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period as surface high
pressure dominates. Northerly winds AOB 5 knots early may become
calm after 06Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 5 knots after
15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 292113 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the surface High settles overhead tonight, winds will calm and
clear skies will allow for temps to drop near their dew points,
which should be running in the 30s throughout the region. We`ll
insert patchy frost mention for nearly all sites that spend at
least an hour or two in the 30s. Clouds will begin increasing
either late tonight, or early tmrw, as the next wave of energy
approaches. It will touch off showery pcpn tmrw into tmrw nite,
and we`ll carry sprinkles or chc pops for those time periods
pretty much fa-wide. This trof of energy makes passage by early
Friday and offers a reinforcing shot of cool air headed into the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 pm CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CORRECTION: Mention of freeze advisory should be freeze warning.

Unless the upcoming evening or midnight forecasters decided to issue
a freeze watch for this weekend, will hold off any formal freeze
watch and/or warbing headline until the Thursday daytime forecast
package.

The two primary reasons for this slight delay in freeze headlines was
to 1) reduce some confusion with the occurance of frost later
tonight, and 2) allow a greater likelihood of collaborative
issuance of freeze headlines with NWS offices to the
North/East/South of the WFO PAH forecast area.

Although the probability remains quite high (80-95%) that
freezing/sbufreezing temperatures will occur over all of the WFO
PAH forecast area late Friday night and early Saturday morning,
then again Saturday night and Sunday morning, prefer to pin down
the timing of onset, duration, and actual temperature range closer
for public output.

The main limitation for Saturday morning will be the extent of
gradient wind flow over Southwest Indiana and the West Kentucky
Pennyrile region. These wind will definitely inhibit any frost
development. The only frost potential Saturday morning will likely be
patchy occurrence in protected area in Southern Illinois shortly
before daybreak as the wind gradient diminishes and the inversion
sets up. Given the shorter duration of freezing or sub-freezing
temperatures toward a hard freeze, may need to re-issue a freeze
headline for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For Sunday, depending on the duration of freezing/sub-freezing
temperatures Friday night into Saturday, may need to continue the
potential for a freeze warning for Saturday night into Sunday
morning for part of the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of the
freezing temperatures, widespread frost will be expected by
Sunday morning.

In lieu of a Freeze Watch for this package, will continue a
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and a special weather
statement, as well as social media.

With respect to rain chances early next week, GFS ensemble
climatology (1985-2010) suggest a 85 to 95 percent chance of
seeing around an inch or more over Southeast Missouri and
Southwest Illinois, west of Interstate 57 from Monday night into
Tuesday. The signal remains strong for rain on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, so kept chance to likely PoPs/Weather in place for
that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Despite the surface High moving overhead, and a clear sky/light
wind regime overnight...drier air in place should preclude fog
from developing to the extent it did this morning. Nevertheless we
will include an MVFR mention for prone terminals like KCGI with
patches of more locally dense fog possible. Otherwise anticipate
some increasing mid or high cloud in the planning period, ahead of
an eventual chance of showers with a wave of upper energy making
its approach and ultimate passage just beyond the valid time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 292019
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the surface High settles overhead tonight, winds will calm and
clear skies will allow for temps to drop near their dew points,
which should be running in the 30s throughout the region. We`ll
insert patchy frost mention for nearly all sites that spend at
least an hour or two in the 30s. Clouds will begin increasing
either late tonight, or early tmrw, as the next wave of energy
approaches. It will touch off showery pcpn tmrw into tmrw nite,
and we`ll carry sprinkles or chc pops for those time periods
pretty much fa-wide. This trof of energy makes passage by early
Friday and offers a reinforcing shot of cool air headed into the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 pm CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Unless the upcoming evening or midnight forecasters decided to issue
a freeze watch for this weekend, will hold off any formal freeze
watch and/or advisory headline until the Thursday daytime forecast
package.

The two primary reasons for this slight delay in freeze headlines was
to 1) reduce some confusion with the occurance of frost later
tonight, and 2) allow a greater likelihood of collaborative
issuance of freeze headlines with NWS offices to the
North/East/South of the WFO PAH forecast area.

Although the probability remains quite high (80-95%) that
freezing/sbufreezing temperatures will occur over all of the WFO
PAH forecast area late Friday night and early Saturday morning,
then again Saturday night and Sunday morning, prefer to pin down
the timing of onset, duration, and actual temperature range closer
for public output.

The main limitation for Saturday morning will be the extent of
gradient wind flow over Southwest Indiana and the West Kentucky
Pennyrile region. These wind will definitely inhibit any frost
development. The only frost potential Saturday morningwill likely be
patchy occurrence in protected area in Southern Illinois shortly
before daybreak as the wind gradient diminishes and the inversion
sets up. Given the shorter duration of freezing or sub-freezing
temperatures toward a hard freeze, may need to re-issue a freeze
headline for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For Sunday, depending on the duration of freezing/sub-freezing
temperatures Friday night into Saturday, may need to continue the
potential for a freeze advisory for Saturday night into Sunday
morning for part of the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of the
freezing temperatures, widespread frost will be expected by
Sunday morning.

In lieu of a Freeze Watch for this package, will continue a
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and a special weather
statement, as well as social media.

With respect to rain chances early next week, GFS ensemble
climatology (1985-2010) suggest a 85 to 95 percent chance of
seeing around an inch or more over Southeast Missouri and
Southwest Illinois, west of Interstate 57 from Monday night into
Tuesday. The signal remains strong for rain on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, so kept chance to likely PoPs/Weather in place for
that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Despite the surface High moving overhead, and a clear sky/light
wind regime overnight...drier air in place should preclude fog
from developing to the extent it did this morning. Nevertheless we
will include an MVFR mention for prone terminals like KCGI with
patches of more locally dense fog possible. Otherwise anticipate
some increasing mid or high cloud in the planning period, ahead of
an eventual chance of showers with a wave of upper energy making
its approach and ultimate passage just beyond the valid time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the surface High settles overhead tonight, winds will calm and
clear skies will allow for temps to drop near their dew points,
which should be running in the 30s throughout the region. We`ll
insert patchy frost mention for nearly all sites that spend at
least an hour or two in the 30s. Clouds will begin increasing
either late tonight, or early tmrw, as the next wave of energy
approaches. It will touch off showery pcpn tmrw into tmrw nite,
and we`ll carry sprinkles or chc pops for those time periods
pretty much fa-wide. This trof of energy makes passage by early
Friday and offers a reinforcing shot of cool air headed into the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Good agreement among the operational models and their ensembles
lends higher than average confidence in the long term portion of the
forecast. Main concern during this time will be the potential for
frost and freezing temperatures Saturday night, followed by the
chance for rain early next week.

A highly amplified upper level flow pattern is forecast over the
weekend. An upper level ridge is forecast to migrate eastward from
the Plains into the Mississippi Valley by 12Z Monday. Dry and
unseasonably cool weather will result, though a gradual moderating
trend is expected through Monday. A substantial frost and freezing
temperatures are expected Saturday night as clear skies and near
calm winds allow readings to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Models develop a split flow pattern across the nation early next
week as deep southwest flow becomes established over the forecast
area. With the approach of a slow moving cold front, the potential
for rain will slowly spread across the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Without much movement in the upper flow pattern, the rain
is likely to stick around through the middle of the week. A look at
forecast soundings and instability parameters reveals little support
for convective activity. As a result, no thunder was included in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Despite the surface High moving overhead, and a clear sky/light
wind regime overnight...drier air in place should preclude fog
from developing to the extent it did this morning. Nevertheless we
will include an MVFR mention for prone terminals like KCGI with
patches of more locally dense fog possible. Otherwise anticipate
some increasing mid or high cloud in the planning period, ahead of
an eventual chance of showers with a wave of upper energy making
its approach and ultimate passage just beyond the valid time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

In the wake of a frontal passage on Tuesday, high pressure at the
surface and northwest flow aloft will keep the region dry with near
normal temperatures through Thursday morning. Patchy frost is
possible over the northern half of our CWA tonight where
temperatures are expected to dip into the middle 30s.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA Thursday afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of
the northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front
toward our region. With moisture somewhat limited with this feature,
precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Thursday night with the approach and passage of said low and front,
the deeper moisture and precipitation chances will shift to the
northeast half of our CWA which will generally be along and north of
the track of the low. Small precipitation chances may linger into
Friday over the far northeast sections of our CWA on the back side
of the system in the wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s north to middle 30s south) of the season
will overspread the region. As a result, a widespread killing
frost and/or freeze is expected late Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Good agreement among the operational models and their ensembles
lends higher than average confidence in the long term portion of the
forecast. Main concern during this time will be the potential for
frost and freezing temperatures Saturday night, followed by the
chance for rain early next week.

A highly amplified upper level flow pattern is forecast over the
weekend. An upper level ridge is forecast to migrate eastward from
the Plains into the Mississippi Valley by 12Z Monday. Dry and
unseasonably cool weather will result, though a gradual moderating
trend is expected through Monday. A substantial frost and freezing
temperatures are expected Saturday night as clear skies and near
calm winds allow readings to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Models develop a split flow pattern across the nation early next
week as deep southwest flow becomes established over the forecast
area. With the approach of a slow moving cold front, the potential
for rain will slowly spread across the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Without much movement in the upper flow pattern, the rain
is likely to stick around through the middle of the week. A look at
forecast soundings and instability parameters reveals little support
for convective activity. As a result, no thunder was included in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Winds have not been as persistent as originally thought, so as the
clouds cleared out overnight, the visibility has tanked everywhere
but KEVV. Based on observations here at the office, the fog is
patchy and fairly shallow. Satellite indicates that there may be a
more solid area of fog to the south and east of the KPAH and KOWB.
Will continue to monitor, but for now will treat with BCFG at
KOWB and KPAH. KCGI has been down all night, and it is probably
very localized over there, but given the more consistent
observations, went with prevailing VLIFR conditions. The fog will
likely linger for a few hours past sunrise, until better mixing
and northwest winds develop.

Surface high pressure will settle over the region tonight,
resulting in calm winds and clear skies. Fog development cannot be
ruled out, but with the good mixing of dry air across the region
today, it is likely to be very isolated.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 290748
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

In the wake of a frontal passage on Tuesday, high pressure at the
surface and northwest flow aloft will keep the region dry with near
normal temperatures through Thursday morning. Patchy frost is
possible over the northern half of our CWA tonight where
temperatures are expected to dip into the middle 30s.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA Thursday afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of
the northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front
toward our region. With moisture somewhat limited with this feature,
precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Thursday night with the approach and passage of said low and front,
the deeper moisture and precipitation chances will shift to the
northeast half of our CWA which will generally be along and north of
the track of the low. Small precipitation chances may linger into
Friday over the far northeast sections of our CWA on the back side
of the system in the wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s north to middle 30s south) of the season
will overspread the region. As a result, a widespread killing
frost and/or freeze is expected late Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Good agreement among the operational models and their ensembles
lends higher than average confidence in the long term portion of the
forecast. Main concern during this time will be the potential for
frost and freezing temperatures Saturday night, followed by the
chance for rain early next week.

A highly amplified upper level flow pattern is forecast over the
weekend. An upper level ridge is forecast to migrate eastward from
the Plains into the Mississippi Valley by 12Z Monday. Dry and
unseasonably cool weather will result, though a gradual moderating
trend is expected through Monday. A substantial frost and freezing
temperatures are expected Saturday night as clear skies and near
calm winds allow readings to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Models develop a split flow pattern across the nation early next
week as deep southwest flow becomes established over the forecast
area. With the approach of a slow moving cold front, the potential
for rain will slowly spread across the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Without much movement in the upper flow pattern, the rain
is likely to stick around through the middle of the week. A look at
forecast soundings and instability parameters reveals little support
for convective activity. As a result, no thunder was included in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, VFR cloudiness will slowly
decrease from the west through the first half of the period. May
see MVFR/IFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail. Calm to light and variable winds early will swing
around to the north northwest after 09Z, out of the northwest AOB
10 knots after 15Z, then back to AOB 5 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RJP










000
FXUS63 KPAH 290538 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

It appears that the back/northwest edge of showers this afternoon
is near the 850mb cold front. Recent radar imagery indicates that
showers are on the increase from northeast Arkansas into west
Kentucky. Hopefully, this will be the last batch of showers. Tried
to move an area of likely pops east northeast through west
Kentucky into the early evening. Still cannot rule out a stray,
brief thunderstorm in the southern Pennyrile.

Otherwise, the models are in good agreement that surface high
pressure will build across the area tonight and eventually settle
overhead late Wednesday through Wednesday night. As the last of
the mid/upper-level trough finally shifts east of the area late
tonight, brilliant sunshine should be the rule in its wake Wednesday.
With a modest northwest breeze and cool air, it will look better
than it feels. Tried to nudge the current forecast toward the
consensus of guidance for lows tonight and highs Wednesday.

Am becoming more and more concerned about frost potential
throughout the area Wednesday night with dewpoints in the middle
30s and good radiational cooling expected. Maintained a mention of
patchy frost, but it may be more widespread. Just want to see how
low the dewpoints get Wednesday before being confident enough to
issue a frost advisory.

A compact storm system will dive southward across the region late
Thursday and Thursday night. There is only a very minor surface
reflection, so there will be little moisture return for the system
to work with. Forcing will not be strong enough to overcome the
dry air in the low-level Thursday afternoon, but cannot rule it
out Thursday night. Kept Thursday dry, but expanded the slight
chances of showers for Thursday night to cover most of the area
east of the Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The model forecast signal for freezing temperatures still appears to
be on track for this weekend. The subtle model variability in
location of the surface high pressure center, as well as the
wind/sky cover fields, still make the coverage and timing of frost
during the same time period a little more difficult to assess at
this time.

We are still 80 or more hours out from any impact being felt with
respect to frost generation and/or pinning down the duration and
coverage of freezing temperatures. At this time,  will just use the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, and possibly social media to address
frost/freeze concerns for this weekend. The one-two punch of near
freezing temperatures should make a moderate impact on any remaining
exposed vegetation in the area.

Although near the end of the extended period, a consistent forecast
signal for another rain event exists later next Monday into Tuesday
night. The ECMWF and the wobbling solution from the GFS
deterministic runs suggest that a closed low circulation will
develop (or intensify sharply over AR/LA), slowing the progression
of the rain system across the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of
the eventual solution suggested by the ensembles, the probability of
rain still looks good for early next week. The stability fields
remain quite weak at this time, suggesting marginal elevated
instability. Attempted to depict a differential chance for
thunderstorm activity in the zone of greatest lift during this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, VFR cloudiness will slowly
decrease from the west through the first half of the period. May
see MVFR/IFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail. Calm to light and variable winds early will swing
around to the north northwest after 09Z, out of the northwest AOB
10 knots after 15Z, then back to AOB 5 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP









000
FXUS63 KPAH 282335 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

It appears that the back/northwest edge of showers this afternoon
is near the 850mb cold front. Recent radar imagery indicates that
showers are on the increase from northeast Arkansas into west
Kentucky. Hopefully, this will be the last batch of showers. Tried
to move an area of likely pops east northeast through west
Kentucky into the early evening. Still cannot rule out a stray,
brief thunderstorm in the southern Pennyrile.

Otherwise, the models are in good agreement that surface high
pressure will build across the area tonight and eventually settle
overhead late Wednesday through Wednesday night. As the last of
the mid/upper-level trough finally shifts east of the area late
tonight, brilliant sunshine should be the rule in its wake Wednesday.
With a modest northwest breeze and cool air, it will look better
than it feels. Tried to nudge the current forecast toward the
consensus of guidance for lows tonight and highs Wednesday.

Am becoming more and more concerned about frost potential
throughout the area Wednesday night with dewpoints in the middle
30s and good radiational cooling expected. Maintained a mention of
patchy frost, but it may be more widespread. Just want to see how
low the dewpoints get Wednesday before being confident enough to
issue a frost advisory.

A compact storm system will dive southward across the region late
Thursday and Thursday night. There is only a very minor surface
reflection, so there will be little moisture return for the system
to work with. Forcing will not be strong enough to overcome the
dry air in the low-level Thursday afternoon, but cannot rule it
out Thursday night. Kept Thursday dry, but expanded the slight
chances of showers for Thursday night to cover most of the area
east of the Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The model forecast signal for freezing temperatures still appears to
be on track for this weekend. The subtle model variability in
location of the surface high pressure center, as well as the
wind/sky cover fields, still make the coverage and timing of frost
during the same time period a little more difficult to assess at
this time.

We are still 80 or more hours out from any impact being felt with
respect to frost generation and/or pinning down the duration and
coverage of freezing temperatures. At this time,  will just use the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, and possibly social media to address
frost/freeze concerns for this weekend. The one-two punch of near
freezing temperatures should make a moderate impact on any remaining
exposed vegetation in the area.

Although near the end of the extended period, a consistent forecast
signal for another rain event exists later next Monday into Tuesday
night. The ECMWF and the wobbling solution from the GFS
deterministic runs suggest that a closed low circulation will
develop (or intensify sharply over AR/LA), slowing the progression
of the rain system across the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of
the eventual solution suggested by the ensembles, the probability of
rain still looks good for early next week. The stability fields
remain quite weak at this time, suggesting marginal elevated
instability. Attempted to depict a differential chance for
thunderstorm activity in the zone of greatest lift during this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

In the wake of a cold frontal passage today, VFR cloudiness will
slowly decrease from the west through the first half of the period.
Variable winds AOB 5 knots early will swing around to the north
northwest after 03Z, then out of the northwest AOB 10 knots after
15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 282019
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

It appears that the back/northwest edge of showers this afternoon
is near the 850mb cold front. Recent radar imagery indicates that
showers are on the increase from northeast Arkansas into west
Kentucky. Hopefully, this will be the last batch of showers. Tried
to move an area of likely pops east northeast through west
Kentucky into the early evening. Still cannot rule out a stray,
brief thunderstorm in the southern Pennyrile.

Otherwise, the models are in good agreement that surface high
pressure will build across the area tonight and eventually settle
overhead late Wednesday through Wednesday night. As the last of
the mid/upper-level trough finally shifts east of the area late
tonight, brilliant sunshine should be the rule in its wake Wednesday.
With a modest northwest breeze and cool air, it will look better
than it feels. Tried to nudge the current forecast toward the
consensus of guidance for lows tonight and highs Wednesday.

Am becoming more and more concerned about frost potential
throughout the area Wednesday night with dewpoints in the middle
30s and good radiational cooling expected. Maintained a mention of
patchy frost, but it may be more widespread. Just want to see how
low the dewpoints get Wednesday before being confident enough to
issue a frost advisory.

A compact storm system will dive southward across the region late
Thursday and Thursday night. There is only a very minor surface
reflection, so there will be little moisture return for the system
to work with. Forcing will not be strong enough to overcome the
dry air in the low-level Thursday afternoon, but cannot rule it
out Thursday night. Kept Thursday dry, but expanded the slight
chances of showers for Thursday night to cover most of the area
east of the Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The model forecast signal for freezing temperatures still appears to
be on track for this weekend. The subtle model variability in
location of the surface high pressure center, as well as the
wind/sky cover fields, still make the coverage and timing of frost
during the same time period a little more difficult to assess at
this time.

We are still 80 or more hours out from any impact being felt with
respect to frost generation and/or pinning down the duration and
coverage of freezing temperatures. At this time,  will just use the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, and possibly social media to address
frost/freeze concerns for this weekend. The one-two punch of near
freezing temperatures should make a moderate impact on any remaining
exposed vegetation in the area.

Although near the end of the extended period, a consistent forecast
signal for another rain event exists later next Monday into Tuesday
night. The ECMWF and the wobbling solution from the GFS
deterministic runs suggest that a closed low circulation will
develop (or intensify sharply over AR/LA), slowing the progression
of the rain system across the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of
the eventual solution suggested by the ensembles, the probability of
rain still looks good for early next week. The stability fields
remain quite weak at this time, suggesting marginal elevated
instability. Attempted to depict a differential chance for
thunderstorm activity in the zone of greatest lift during this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The 18Z TAFs are VFR. With the cold front already southeast of all
the terminals, winds will be out of the northwest/west northwest
through the period. A few light showers will be possible at KPAH
and KOWB mainly early this afternoon. A slow clearing trend is
expected through tonight. Clear skies are expected Wednesday as
surface high pressure settles over the region.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 281740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Also added a mention of patchy frost to the Wednesday night
forecast. Remainder of forecast is unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The main concern in the near term is the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Low pressure analyzed over Lake
Michigan early this morning will drag a seasonably strong cold
front across the forecast area today. Dynamics with this system
will result in widespread rain showers today. Most of the activity
will occur this morning, but may linger over mainly western
Kentucky into the afternoon and early evening.

Marginal elevated instability still supports a mention of isolated
thunderstorms, and this bears out in recent lightning detection
just northwest of the area. Overall precipitation will average one
quarter to one half inch with localized totals enhanced in brief
thunder activity. However, the progressive nature of this system
should preclude any significant water issues.

Lingering precipitation is forecast to clear southeast portions of
the area this evening as the cold front shifts to the east. In the
wake of the front, a transition to seasonably cool weather will
take place as high pressure builds east from the Plains. Plenty
of sunshine is expected on Wednesday with highs in the lower to
mid 60s.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a weak weather
disturbance dives southeast from the Northern Plains in northwest
flow aloft. The substantial moisture with this feature is forecast
to remain above 10kft, so most of the precipitation should tend to
evaporate before reaching the ground. A few sprinkles or light
showers are not out of the question though, particularly Thursday
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

High confidence through much of the extended.

The weekend time frame will be dominated by a surge of Canadian high
pressure. In fact...many locations will likely see a widespread
frost or freeze Sat/Sun mornings. Highs Saturday will struggle into
the 50s despite ample sunshine. The high pressure system will
finally drift east of the region later Sunday into Monday, allowing
for a gradual warm up to get underway.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The 18Z TAFs are VFR. With the cold front already southeast of all
the terminals, winds will be out of the northwest/west northwest
through the period. A few light showers will be possible at KPAH
and KOWB mainly early this afternoon. A slow clearing trend is
expected through tonight. Clear skies are expected Wednesday as
surface high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 281141
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

Also added a mention of patchy frost to the Wednesday night
forecast. Remainder of forecast is unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The main concern in the near term is the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Low pressure analyzed over Lake
Michigan early this morning will drag a seasonably strong cold
front across the forecast area today. Dynamics with this system
will result in widespread rain showers today. Most of the activity
will occur this morning, but may linger over mainly western
Kentucky into the afternoon and early evening.

Marginal elevated instability still supports a mention of isolated
thunderstorms, and this bears out in recent lightning detection
just northwest of the area. Overall precipitation will average one
quarter to one half inch with localized totals enhanced in brief
thunder activity. However, the progressive nature of this system
should preclude any significant water issues.

Lingering precipitation is forecast to clear southeast portions of
the area this evening as the cold front shifts to the east. In the
wake of the front, a transition to seasonably cool weather will
take place as high pressure builds east from the Plains. Plenty
of sunshine is expected on Wednesday with highs in the lower to
mid 60s.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a weak weather
disturbance dives southeast from the Northern Plains in northwest
flow aloft. The substantial moisture with this feature is forecast
to remain above 10kft, so most of the precipitation should tend to
evaporate before reaching the ground. A few sprinkles or light
showers are not out of the question though, particularly Thursday
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

High confidence through much of the extended.

The weekend time frame will be dominated by a surge of Canadian high
pressure. In fact...many locations will likely see a widespread
frost or freeze Sat/Sun mornings. Highs Saturday will struggle into
the 50s despite ample sunshine. The high pressure system will
finally drift east of the region later Sunday into Monday, allowing
for a gradual warm up to get underway.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

With the approach and passage of a cold front, a band of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will push across the forecast terminals this
morning. MVFR conditions will accompany the precipitation activity.
Behind the front, winds will shift to the west/northwest as rain
tapers off by late morning and afternoon. A clearing trend with
light winds is anticipated tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 280834
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
334 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The main concern in the near term is the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Low pressure analyzed over Lake
Michigan early this morning will drag a seasonably strong cold
front across the forecast area today. Dynamics with this system
will result in widespread rain showers today. Most of the activity
will occur this morning, but may linger over mainly western
Kentucky into the afternoon and early evening.

Marginal elevated instability still supports a mention of isolated
thunderstorms, and this bears out in recent lightning detection
just northwest of the area. Overall precipitation will average one
quarter to one half inch with localized totals enhanced in brief
thunder activity. However, the progressive nature of this system
should preclude any significant water issues.

Lingering precipitation is forecast to clear southeast portions of
the area this evening as the cold front shifts to the east. In the
wake of the front, a transition to seasonably cool weather will
take place as high pressure builds east from the Plains. Plenty
of sunshine is expected on Wednesday with highs in the lower to
mid 60s.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a weak weather
disturbance dives southeast from the Northern Plains in northwest
flow aloft. The substantial moisture with this feature is forecast
to remain above 10kft, so most of the precipitation should tend to
evaporate before reaching the ground. A few sprinkles or light
showers are not out of the question though, particularly Thursday
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

High confidence through much of the extended.

The weekend time frame will be dominated by a surge of Canadian high
pressure. In fact...many locations will likely see a widespread
frost or freeze Sat/Sun mornings. Highs Saturday will struggle into
the 50s despite ample sunshine. The high pressure system will
finally drift east of the region later Sunday into Monday, allowing
for a gradual warm up to get underway.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

With the approach and passage of a cold front, cloudiness will
increase and lower through the morning. For the most part, VFR
conditions will prevail...however there could be MVFR cigs/vsbys
in SHRA in the 12-18Z time frame. Southerly winds AOB 10 knots
will eventually veer around to the west, and then northwest behind
the front and remain AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP









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