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000
FXUS63 KPAH 090931
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Short term will be dominated by cold Canadian airmass that has now
rotated south/east into the region. Areas of light snow and
flurries embedded within broad cyclonic flow aloft will likely
persist at least for awhile today...mainly along/east of the MS
River. Thus far, have not seen much over a coating to about an
inch...mainly areas of sw IN/nw KY. Not expecting the snow to
amount to much today...tho there will likely be quick heavier
bursts where enhanced banding develops. Will watch radar trends
as we approach the morning commute. May need to issue an impact-
based winter weather advisory on the fly in some locations for the
morning rush. For now, will go with a special weather statement
to cover localized heavier bursts which could reduce visibilities
and briefly cover some roadways. The remainder of the short term
is expected to be cold and mainly snow-free. Will need to keep an
eye on a weakening clipper type system that will be diving se
into the region Wednesday night. Right now, then system looks to
be rather moisture starved, and no big impacts are anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

The medium range models/ensembles appeared to be in decent agreement
with the overall mid/upper flow across the CONUS in the extended
period. The mid/upper flow will be out of the northwest most of the
time, meaning that with colder air being maintained in place, many
of the impulses of energy embedded within the flow may trigger light
pcpn periodically.

It appears that the first opportunity for light snowfall will be on
Friday with the introduction of another arctic air mass. However,
the probability at this time for measurable pcpn is low, and only
for southwestern IN and adjacent parts of southern IL and northern
KY. The frigid arctic air mass that follows should provide dewpoints
in the single digits and highs near to well below freezing through
the weekend.

Beginning Sunday, a more substantial mid level shortwave is shown by
the models (with varying degrees of intensity and with some
differences in timing) to affect the PAH forecast area. The ECMWF
seemed to have the greatest QPF signal, probably due to its more
southerly placement of a surface low (right in our vicinity). At
this time, the favored initialization blend centered the greatest
PoP and QPF on the Sunday night time period. Model temperature
profiles indicate snowfall will be the dominant pcpn type, possibly
switching over to rain by Monday afternoon and evening as the
influence of the arctic high wanes. For now, snow accumulations are
expected to be minor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The HRRR/RAP guidance suggests a narrow band of lowered ceilings
and visibilities associated with the greatest probabilities of
snow showers. For KCGI and KPAH, the majority of lowered
visibilities and ceilings will be between 10z-14z Tuesday time
frame.

With respect to KEVV and KOWB, more persistent and intermittent
VFR snow shower activity will keep a prevailing mention of light
snow in the TAF`s. MVFR visibilities were focused closer to model
depiction of greater lift and instability producing better
chances for reductions to ceiling and visibility due to snow.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KPAH 090539
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cyclonic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The HRRR/RAP guidance suggests a narrow band of lowered ceilings
and visibilities associated with the greatest probabilities of
snow showers. For KCGI and KPAH, the majority of lowered
visibilities and ceilings will be between 10z-14z Tuesday time
frame.

With respect to KEVV and KOWB, more persistant and intermittent
VFR snow shower activity will keep a prevailing mention of light
snow in the TAF`s. MVFR visibilities were focused closer to model
depiction of greater lift and instability producing better
chances for reductions to ceiling and visibility due to snow.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KPAH 090539
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cyclonic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The HRRR/RAP guidance suggests a narrow band of lowered ceilings
and visibilities associated with the greatest probabilities of
snow showers. For KCGI and KPAH, the majority of lowered
visibilities and ceilings will be between 10z-14z Tuesday time
frame.

With respect to KEVV and KOWB, more persistant and intermittent
VFR snow shower activity will keep a prevailing mention of light
snow in the TAF`s. MVFR visibilities were focused closer to model
depiction of greater lift and instability producing better
chances for reductions to ceiling and visibility due to snow.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KPAH 090539
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cyclonic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The HRRR/RAP guidance suggests a narrow band of lowered ceilings
and visibilities associated with the greatest probabilities of
snow showers. For KCGI and KPAH, the majority of lowered
visibilities and ceilings will be between 10z-14z Tuesday time
frame.

With respect to KEVV and KOWB, more persistant and intermittent
VFR snow shower activity will keep a prevailing mention of light
snow in the TAF`s. MVFR visibilities were focused closer to model
depiction of greater lift and instability producing better
chances for reductions to ceiling and visibility due to snow.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KPAH 082330
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
530 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cyclonic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

For the 00z February 9th WFO PAH TAF issuance, kept KCGI/KPAH in
VFR category. There may be transient snow showers for the
aforementioned TAF sites. but they should remain at or above MVFR
levels and last less than an hour.

For KEVV/KOWB it will be more difficult to pin down chance for
unrestricted visibilities and ceilings in the deeper cyclonic
flow, so kept upper MVFR and brief IFR visibilities, along with
intermittent MVFR ceilings for highest probabilities for reduction
of ceilings and visibilities due to the snow.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KPAH 082330
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
530 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cyclonic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

For the 00z February 9th WFO PAH TAF issuance, kept KCGI/KPAH in
VFR category. There may be transient snow showers for the
aforementioned TAF sites. but they should remain at or above MVFR
levels and last less than an hour.

For KEVV/KOWB it will be more difficult to pin down chance for
unrestricted visibilities and ceilings in the deeper cyclonic
flow, so kept upper MVFR and brief IFR visibilities, along with
intermittent MVFR ceilings for highest probabilities for reduction
of ceilings and visibilities due to the snow.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KPAH 082330
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
530 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cyclonic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

For the 00z February 9th WFO PAH TAF issuance, kept KCGI/KPAH in
VFR category. There may be transient snow showers for the
aforementioned TAF sites. but they should remain at or above MVFR
levels and last less than an hour.

For KEVV/KOWB it will be more difficult to pin down chance for
unrestricted visibilities and ceilings in the deeper cyclonic
flow, so kept upper MVFR and brief IFR visibilities, along with
intermittent MVFR ceilings for highest probabilities for reduction
of ceilings and visibilities due to the snow.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KPAH 082117
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
317 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cylconic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Low VFR cigs may occasionally restrict to MVFR into this evening.
Where/when that occurs, scattered snow showers may likewise
restrict vsbys thru MVFR to potentially isolated IFR vsbys.
Otherwise VFR vsbys and borderline VFR to MVFR cigs will persist
thru remainder of forecast under cyclone.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 081201
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The leading edge of a much colder air mass was pushing just east
of the forecast area early this morning. In the upper levels, a
deep area of low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes
region. This low is forecast to push south into the Ohio Valley
over the next 24 to 36 hours as a blast of Arctic air wraps around
on the west side of the low. As a result, temperatures today will
fall through early morning--then should remain nearly steady or
continue a slow fall into the afternoon. Northwest winds will be
quite strong, with sustained readings of 15 to 20 mph and gusts as
high as 30 mph.

Moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will result in
scattered to numerous snow showers through the day. Across the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, a mix of rain or
snow is possible early on. But even there, temperatures by the
latter half of the morning should be cold enough for light snow.
The chance of snow showers will continue across most of the area
tonight, then gradually taper off from west to east on Tuesday.
Gradual clearing from west to east should follow Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Overall, precipitation is forecast to be rather light, though
some bursts of moderate snow are certainly possible from time to
time. Any accumulation should be relatively minor and confined to
portions of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky. As much as an inch is certainly possible over eastern
portions of the area. However, given the low moisture content and
wind-driven nature of this light powdery snow, we do not expect
much impact at this time.

Temperatures will remain bitterly cold through the short term.
In fact, highs are only forecast in the 20s across much of the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should drop into
the teens. With a persistent northwest wind, wind chill readings
by daybreak Wednesday are forecast from 5 below to 5 above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Much of the long term will continue to be categorized by a cold
weather regime as one Canadian high after another plunges southeast
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley region. Will need to keep an eye on
a possible area of low pressure in between the high pressure systems
that could pass through the region Thu night or Friday, but right
now it looks as though the bigger threat for precip will remain to
the east of our forecast area.  What is seeming a bit more certain
now is that another chunk of cold Canadian air will be in store as
we head into next weekend. Latest 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF
advertise a 1045-1050 mb high pushing southeast toward the region by
Saturday. Writing seems to be on the wall that below normal winter
temps will be sticking around right into the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 600 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Overcast and windy conditions are expected over the next 24 hours
with scattered light snow showers. At KCGI/KPAH, low VFR conditions
are expected through much of the forecast period. However, moderate
bursts of snow shower activity may reduce conditions to MVFR at
times. At KEVV/KOWB, conditions should be primarily MVFR. Northwest
winds around 15 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 080925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The leading edge of a much colder air mass was pushing just east
of the forecast area early this morning. In the upper levels, a
deep area of low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes
region. This low is forecast to push south into the Ohio Valley
over the next 24 to 36 hours as a blast of Arctic air wraps around
on the west side of the low. As a result, temperatures today will
fall through early morning--then should remain nearly steady or
continue a slow fall into the afternoon. Northwest winds will be
quite strong, with sustained readings of 15 to 20 mph and gusts as
high as 30 mph.

Moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will result in
scattered to numerous snow showers through the day. Across the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, a mix of rain or
snow is possible early on. But even there, temperatures by the
latter half of the morning should be cold enough for light snow.
The chance of snow showers will continue across most of the area
tonight, then gradually taper off from west to east on Tuesday.
Gradual clearing from west to east should follow Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Overall, precipitation is forecast to be rather light, though
some bursts of moderate snow are certainly possible from time to
time. Any accumulation should be relatively minor and confined to
portions of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky. As much as an inch is certainly possible over eastern
portions of the area. However, given the low moisture content and
wind-driven nature of this light powdery snow, we do not expect
much impact at this time.

Temperatures will remain bitterly cold through the short term.
In fact, highs are only forecast in the 20s across much of the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should drop into
the teens. With a persistent northwest wind, wind chill readings
by daybreak Wednesday are forecast from 5 below to 5 above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Much of the long term will continue to be categorized by a cold
weather regime as one Canadian high after another plunges southeast
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley region. Will need to keep an eye on
a possible area of low pressure in between the high pressure systems
that could pass through the region Thu night or Friday, but right
now it looks as though the bigger threat for precip will remain to
the east of our forecast area.  What is seeming a bit more certain
now is that another chunk of cold Canadian air will be in store as
we head into next weekend. Latest 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF
advertise a 1045-1050 mb high pushing southeast toward the region by
Saturday. Writing seems to be on the wall that below normal winter
temps will be sticking around right into the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at all sites through at least 12Z, then
MVFR cigs and/or vsbys along with shsn in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Cigs at KCGI/KPAH may improve back to VFR in the last six
hours of the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 knots will veer around
to the northwest in the wake of the front, increase to 12-14
knots with gusts to 20-22 knots after 16Z, then dropping off to AOB
12 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 080925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The leading edge of a much colder air mass was pushing just east
of the forecast area early this morning. In the upper levels, a
deep area of low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes
region. This low is forecast to push south into the Ohio Valley
over the next 24 to 36 hours as a blast of Arctic air wraps around
on the west side of the low. As a result, temperatures today will
fall through early morning--then should remain nearly steady or
continue a slow fall into the afternoon. Northwest winds will be
quite strong, with sustained readings of 15 to 20 mph and gusts as
high as 30 mph.

Moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will result in
scattered to numerous snow showers through the day. Across the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, a mix of rain or
snow is possible early on. But even there, temperatures by the
latter half of the morning should be cold enough for light snow.
The chance of snow showers will continue across most of the area
tonight, then gradually taper off from west to east on Tuesday.
Gradual clearing from west to east should follow Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Overall, precipitation is forecast to be rather light, though
some bursts of moderate snow are certainly possible from time to
time. Any accumulation should be relatively minor and confined to
portions of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky. As much as an inch is certainly possible over eastern
portions of the area. However, given the low moisture content and
wind-driven nature of this light powdery snow, we do not expect
much impact at this time.

Temperatures will remain bitterly cold through the short term.
In fact, highs are only forecast in the 20s across much of the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should drop into
the teens. With a persistent northwest wind, wind chill readings
by daybreak Wednesday are forecast from 5 below to 5 above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Much of the long term will continue to be categorized by a cold
weather regime as one Canadian high after another plunges southeast
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley region. Will need to keep an eye on
a possible area of low pressure in between the high pressure systems
that could pass through the region Thu night or Friday, but right
now it looks as though the bigger threat for precip will remain to
the east of our forecast area.  What is seeming a bit more certain
now is that another chunk of cold Canadian air will be in store as
we head into next weekend. Latest 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF
advertise a 1045-1050 mb high pushing southeast toward the region by
Saturday. Writing seems to be on the wall that below normal winter
temps will be sticking around right into the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at all sites through at least 12Z, then
MVFR cigs and/or vsbys along with shsn in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Cigs at KCGI/KPAH may improve back to VFR in the last six
hours of the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 knots will veer around
to the northwest in the wake of the front, increase to 12-14
knots with gusts to 20-22 knots after 16Z, then dropping off to AOB
12 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 080542 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

We have no plans for winter weather headlines with this forecast
package.

The 12Z guidance is on track with the large upper trough
developing overhead tonight and Monday. A lead wind shift will
turn winds to the west by/around 00z, but the main wind shift to
the northwest will hold off until early Monday morning. As a
result, the cold advection will hold off until Monday.

Lows tonight should hold right near freezing over most of the
area, and there will be a brief period of warming over the
southeast half of the area in the morning. We should have morning
highs with temperatures falling during the late morning and
afternoon. Used the consensus of raw model data to capture these
hourly temperature trends tonight through Monday.

Temperatures aloft are expected to drop below freezing throughout
the area by 12Z Monday. Therefore the only "warm" air will be
right at the surface, which should allow any precipitation across
the area to reach the ground as snow by 12Z Monday.

Snow showers are expected to increase in the wake of the lead
upper-level disturbance which should be moving through the area
around 12Z. The consensus of 12Z guidance emphasizes Monday
afternoon east of the Mississippi River for the greatest coverage
of snow showers, but the higher resolution models are not
generating much coverage. Tried to cap PoPs at 50%, but ended up
with some likelies in the far eastern portions of the area.

Beyond Monday afternoon, it is difficult to pin down a time for
better coverage of snow showers, so will continue with chancy
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, with the best PoPs in the east.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 1-1.5" will be possible over
portions of southwest Indiana over the 36 hour period from Monday
through Tuesday. Elsewhere total snows will be an inch or less,
with much of the southwest half of the area seeing little if any
accumulation.

Given that it will be a dry snow and quite breezy, it will be hard
to accumulate, which should limit the impact on roads. Will not be
issuing any extra products with this forecast package, but we will
be monitoring radar trends and cannot rule out a Winter Weather
Advisory eventually becoming necessary, especially over the
Evansville Tri State.

Temperatures will feel quite chilly after our mild weekend. With
clouds holding over most of the area most of the day Tuesday, we
may be too warm, especially in the southwest. The coldest air will
arrive Tuesday night when the entire area will drop into the
teens. The winds will still be quite strong, which will take wind
chills down as low as minus 5 along I-64 at 12Z Wednesday. Even
the southern border of the area will see wind chills down to 5
above. Snow or no snow, it will be dangerously cold Tuesday night.
Will mention the cold along with the light snow accumulations in
the HWO.

A band of mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles across the
area late this afternoon and this evening, but with temperatures
well above freezing it should have little impact.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

With no substantial weather systems to worry about in the long term,
our focus continues to be the brutal cold that will be arriving
early in the week and lasts through most of the work week. Models
have definitely trended colder in the last few runs. The core of the
cold air mass will be laid out across the western Great Lakes down
into southern IL, southwest IN and central KY. 850 mb temperatures
are now forecast to be down to around -20 deg C in these locations,
which is about 5 degrees colder than what was advertised yesterday.
Latest guidance numbers reflect this drop with highs only in the 20s
for most locations within the CWA. Even though the sfc high will be
building into the area on Wednesday, the gradient will be rather
tight in the morning, so wind chills will at least be in the single
digits with some areas dropping below zero. As the high builds in
during the day, the winds will lessen but probably not until about
00Z Thursday. In addition, there may be some lingering low clouds in
our eastern counties, but we should see clearing skies as the high
builds in.

At the surface, high pressure will remain the dominant feature on
the weather maps. However, there will be an even stronger high
pressure system building in over the area for the weekend, but
models are not in agreement on how much cold air is associated with
it. In the meantime, our daily highs will likely not get out of the
20s/30s from Tuesday through Thursday, and actually not get above
freezing for parts of southern IL/southwest IN until Friday. This is
due to the highly amplified upper level pattern - we remain in
strong northwest flow for much of the week. It is only toward the
end of the week when the flow tries to relax a bit. As with most
northwest flow patterns, there will be minor waves of energy that
might have enough moisture to produce some minor precipitation.
However, as mentioned yesterday, models do not have any good
consistency on any of the projected shortwaves to be able to warrant
explicitly adding POPS to the forecast at this time. Will wait for
some additional run to run consistency before adding anything right
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at all sites through at least 12Z, then
MVFR cigs and/or vsbys along with shsn in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Cigs at KCGI/KPAH may improve back to VFR in the last six
hours of the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 knots will veer around
to the northwest in the wake of the front, increase to 12-14
knots with gusts to 20-22 knots after 16Z, then dropping off to AOB
12 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 080542 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

We have no plans for winter weather headlines with this forecast
package.

The 12Z guidance is on track with the large upper trough
developing overhead tonight and Monday. A lead wind shift will
turn winds to the west by/around 00z, but the main wind shift to
the northwest will hold off until early Monday morning. As a
result, the cold advection will hold off until Monday.

Lows tonight should hold right near freezing over most of the
area, and there will be a brief period of warming over the
southeast half of the area in the morning. We should have morning
highs with temperatures falling during the late morning and
afternoon. Used the consensus of raw model data to capture these
hourly temperature trends tonight through Monday.

Temperatures aloft are expected to drop below freezing throughout
the area by 12Z Monday. Therefore the only "warm" air will be
right at the surface, which should allow any precipitation across
the area to reach the ground as snow by 12Z Monday.

Snow showers are expected to increase in the wake of the lead
upper-level disturbance which should be moving through the area
around 12Z. The consensus of 12Z guidance emphasizes Monday
afternoon east of the Mississippi River for the greatest coverage
of snow showers, but the higher resolution models are not
generating much coverage. Tried to cap PoPs at 50%, but ended up
with some likelies in the far eastern portions of the area.

Beyond Monday afternoon, it is difficult to pin down a time for
better coverage of snow showers, so will continue with chancy
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, with the best PoPs in the east.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 1-1.5" will be possible over
portions of southwest Indiana over the 36 hour period from Monday
through Tuesday. Elsewhere total snows will be an inch or less,
with much of the southwest half of the area seeing little if any
accumulation.

Given that it will be a dry snow and quite breezy, it will be hard
to accumulate, which should limit the impact on roads. Will not be
issuing any extra products with this forecast package, but we will
be monitoring radar trends and cannot rule out a Winter Weather
Advisory eventually becoming necessary, especially over the
Evansville Tri State.

Temperatures will feel quite chilly after our mild weekend. With
clouds holding over most of the area most of the day Tuesday, we
may be too warm, especially in the southwest. The coldest air will
arrive Tuesday night when the entire area will drop into the
teens. The winds will still be quite strong, which will take wind
chills down as low as minus 5 along I-64 at 12Z Wednesday. Even
the southern border of the area will see wind chills down to 5
above. Snow or no snow, it will be dangerously cold Tuesday night.
Will mention the cold along with the light snow accumulations in
the HWO.

A band of mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles across the
area late this afternoon and this evening, but with temperatures
well above freezing it should have little impact.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

With no substantial weather systems to worry about in the long term,
our focus continues to be the brutal cold that will be arriving
early in the week and lasts through most of the work week. Models
have definitely trended colder in the last few runs. The core of the
cold air mass will be laid out across the western Great Lakes down
into southern IL, southwest IN and central KY. 850 mb temperatures
are now forecast to be down to around -20 deg C in these locations,
which is about 5 degrees colder than what was advertised yesterday.
Latest guidance numbers reflect this drop with highs only in the 20s
for most locations within the CWA. Even though the sfc high will be
building into the area on Wednesday, the gradient will be rather
tight in the morning, so wind chills will at least be in the single
digits with some areas dropping below zero. As the high builds in
during the day, the winds will lessen but probably not until about
00Z Thursday. In addition, there may be some lingering low clouds in
our eastern counties, but we should see clearing skies as the high
builds in.

At the surface, high pressure will remain the dominant feature on
the weather maps. However, there will be an even stronger high
pressure system building in over the area for the weekend, but
models are not in agreement on how much cold air is associated with
it. In the meantime, our daily highs will likely not get out of the
20s/30s from Tuesday through Thursday, and actually not get above
freezing for parts of southern IL/southwest IN until Friday. This is
due to the highly amplified upper level pattern - we remain in
strong northwest flow for much of the week. It is only toward the
end of the week when the flow tries to relax a bit. As with most
northwest flow patterns, there will be minor waves of energy that
might have enough moisture to produce some minor precipitation.
However, as mentioned yesterday, models do not have any good
consistency on any of the projected shortwaves to be able to warrant
explicitly adding POPS to the forecast at this time. Will wait for
some additional run to run consistency before adding anything right
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at all sites through at least 12Z, then
MVFR cigs and/or vsbys along with shsn in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Cigs at KCGI/KPAH may improve back to VFR in the last six
hours of the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 knots will veer around
to the northwest in the wake of the front, increase to 12-14
knots with gusts to 20-22 knots after 16Z, then dropping off to AOB
12 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 080542 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

We have no plans for winter weather headlines with this forecast
package.

The 12Z guidance is on track with the large upper trough
developing overhead tonight and Monday. A lead wind shift will
turn winds to the west by/around 00z, but the main wind shift to
the northwest will hold off until early Monday morning. As a
result, the cold advection will hold off until Monday.

Lows tonight should hold right near freezing over most of the
area, and there will be a brief period of warming over the
southeast half of the area in the morning. We should have morning
highs with temperatures falling during the late morning and
afternoon. Used the consensus of raw model data to capture these
hourly temperature trends tonight through Monday.

Temperatures aloft are expected to drop below freezing throughout
the area by 12Z Monday. Therefore the only "warm" air will be
right at the surface, which should allow any precipitation across
the area to reach the ground as snow by 12Z Monday.

Snow showers are expected to increase in the wake of the lead
upper-level disturbance which should be moving through the area
around 12Z. The consensus of 12Z guidance emphasizes Monday
afternoon east of the Mississippi River for the greatest coverage
of snow showers, but the higher resolution models are not
generating much coverage. Tried to cap PoPs at 50%, but ended up
with some likelies in the far eastern portions of the area.

Beyond Monday afternoon, it is difficult to pin down a time for
better coverage of snow showers, so will continue with chancy
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, with the best PoPs in the east.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 1-1.5" will be possible over
portions of southwest Indiana over the 36 hour period from Monday
through Tuesday. Elsewhere total snows will be an inch or less,
with much of the southwest half of the area seeing little if any
accumulation.

Given that it will be a dry snow and quite breezy, it will be hard
to accumulate, which should limit the impact on roads. Will not be
issuing any extra products with this forecast package, but we will
be monitoring radar trends and cannot rule out a Winter Weather
Advisory eventually becoming necessary, especially over the
Evansville Tri State.

Temperatures will feel quite chilly after our mild weekend. With
clouds holding over most of the area most of the day Tuesday, we
may be too warm, especially in the southwest. The coldest air will
arrive Tuesday night when the entire area will drop into the
teens. The winds will still be quite strong, which will take wind
chills down as low as minus 5 along I-64 at 12Z Wednesday. Even
the southern border of the area will see wind chills down to 5
above. Snow or no snow, it will be dangerously cold Tuesday night.
Will mention the cold along with the light snow accumulations in
the HWO.

A band of mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles across the
area late this afternoon and this evening, but with temperatures
well above freezing it should have little impact.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

With no substantial weather systems to worry about in the long term,
our focus continues to be the brutal cold that will be arriving
early in the week and lasts through most of the work week. Models
have definitely trended colder in the last few runs. The core of the
cold air mass will be laid out across the western Great Lakes down
into southern IL, southwest IN and central KY. 850 mb temperatures
are now forecast to be down to around -20 deg C in these locations,
which is about 5 degrees colder than what was advertised yesterday.
Latest guidance numbers reflect this drop with highs only in the 20s
for most locations within the CWA. Even though the sfc high will be
building into the area on Wednesday, the gradient will be rather
tight in the morning, so wind chills will at least be in the single
digits with some areas dropping below zero. As the high builds in
during the day, the winds will lessen but probably not until about
00Z Thursday. In addition, there may be some lingering low clouds in
our eastern counties, but we should see clearing skies as the high
builds in.

At the surface, high pressure will remain the dominant feature on
the weather maps. However, there will be an even stronger high
pressure system building in over the area for the weekend, but
models are not in agreement on how much cold air is associated with
it. In the meantime, our daily highs will likely not get out of the
20s/30s from Tuesday through Thursday, and actually not get above
freezing for parts of southern IL/southwest IN until Friday. This is
due to the highly amplified upper level pattern - we remain in
strong northwest flow for much of the week. It is only toward the
end of the week when the flow tries to relax a bit. As with most
northwest flow patterns, there will be minor waves of energy that
might have enough moisture to produce some minor precipitation.
However, as mentioned yesterday, models do not have any good
consistency on any of the projected shortwaves to be able to warrant
explicitly adding POPS to the forecast at this time. Will wait for
some additional run to run consistency before adding anything right
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at all sites through at least 12Z, then
MVFR cigs and/or vsbys along with shsn in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Cigs at KCGI/KPAH may improve back to VFR in the last six
hours of the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 knots will veer around
to the northwest in the wake of the front, increase to 12-14
knots with gusts to 20-22 knots after 16Z, then dropping off to AOB
12 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 072323 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
523 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

We have no plans for winter weather headlines with this forecast
package.

The 12Z guidance is on track with the large upper trough
developing overhead tonight and Monday. A lead wind shift will
turn winds to the west by/around 00z, but the main wind shift to
the northwest will hold off until early Monday morning. As a
result, the cold advection will hold off until Monday.

Lows tonight should hold right near freezing over most of the
area, and there will be a brief period of warming over the
southeast half of the area in the morning. We should have morning
highs with temperatures falling during the late morning and
afternoon. Used the consensus of raw model data to capture these
hourly temperature trends tonight through Monday.

Temperatures aloft are expected to drop below freezing throughout
the area by 12Z Monday. Therefore the only "warm" air will be
right at the surface, which should allow any precipitation across
the area to reach the ground as snow by 12Z Monday.

Snow showers are expected to increase in the wake of the lead
upper-level disturbance which should be moving through the area
around 12Z. The consensus of 12Z guidance emphasizes Monday
afternoon east of the Mississippi River for the greatest coverage
of snow showers, but the higher resolution models are not
generating much coverage. Tried to cap PoPs at 50%, but ended up
with some likelies in the far eastern portions of the area.

Beyond Monday afternoon, it is difficult to pin down a time for
better coverage of snow showers, so will continue with chancy
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, with the best PoPs in the east.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 1-1.5" will be possible over
portions of southwest Indiana over the 36 hour period from Monday
through Tuesday. Elsewhere total snows will be an inch or less,
with much of the southwest half of the area seeing little if any
accumulation.

Given that it will be a dry snow and quite breezy, it will be hard
to accumulate, which should limit the impact on roads. Will not be
issuing any extra products with this forecast package, but we will
be monitoring radar trends and cannot rule out a Winter Weather
Advisory eventually becoming necessary, especially over the
Evansville Tri State.

Temperatures will feel quite chilly after our mild weekend. With
clouds holding over most of the area most of the day Tuesday, we
may be too warm, especially in the southwest. The coldest air will
arrive Tuesday night when the entire area will drop into the
teens. The winds will still be quite strong, which will take wind
chills down as low as minus 5 along I-64 at 12Z Wednesday. Even
the southern border of the area will see wind chills down to 5
above. Snow or no snow, it will be dangerously cold Tuesday night.
Will mention the cold along with the light snow accumulations in
the HWO.

A band of mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles across the
area late this afternoon and this evening, but with temperatures
well above freezing it should have little impact.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

With no substantial weather systems to worry about in the long term,
our focus continues to be the brutal cold that will be arriving
early in the week and lasts through most of the work week. Models
have definitely trended colder in the last few runs. The core of the
cold air mass will be laid out across the western Great Lakes down
into southern IL, southwest IN and central KY. 850 mb temperatures
are now forecast to be down to around -20 deg C in these locations,
which is about 5 degrees colder than what was advertised yesterday.
Latest guidance numbers reflect this drop with highs only in the 20s
for most locations within the CWA. Even though the sfc high will be
building into the area on Wednesday, the gradient will be rather
tight in the morning, so wind chills will at least be in the single
digits with some areas dropping below zero. As the high builds in
during the day, the winds will lessen but probably not until about
00Z Thursday. In addition, there may be some lingering low clouds in
our eastern counties, but we should see clearing skies as the high
builds in.

At the surface, high pressure will remain the dominant feature on
the weather maps. However, there will be an even stronger high
pressure system building in over the area for the weekend, but
models are not in agreement on how much cold air is associated with
it. In the meantime, our daily highs will likely not get out of the
20s/30s from Tuesday through Thursday, and actually not get above
freezing for parts of southern IL/southwest IN until Friday. This is
due to the highly amplified upper level pattern - we remain in
strong northwest flow for much of the week. It is only toward the
end of the week when the flow tries to relax a bit. As with most
northwest flow patterns, there will be minor waves of energy that
might have enough moisture to produce some minor precipitation.
However, as mentioned yesterday, models do not have any good
consistency on any of the projected shortwaves to be able to warrant
explicitly adding POPS to the forecast at this time. Will wait for
some additional run to run consistency before adding anything right
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 523 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at all sites through the first half
of the period, then both cigs/vsbys along with shsn in the wake of
a cold frontal passage. Westerly winds AOB 10 knots will veer
around to the northwest in the wake of the front, then increase to
12-14 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots after 16Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 072116
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

We have no plans for winter weather headlines with this forecast
package.

The 12Z guidance is on track with the large upper trough
developing overhead tonight and Monday. A lead wind shift will
turn winds to the west by/around 00z, but the main wind shift to
the northwest will hold off until early Monday morning. As a
result, the cold advection will hold off until Monday.

Lows tonight should hold right near freezing over most of the
area, and there will be a brief period of warming over the
southeast half of the area in the morning. We should have morning
highs with temperatures falling during the late morning and
afternoon. Used the consensus of raw model data to capture these
hourly temperature trends tonight through Monday.

Temperatures aloft are expected to drop below freezing throughout
the area by 12Z Monday. Therefore the only "warm" air will be
right at the surface, which should allow any precipitation across
the area to reach the ground as snow by 12Z Monday.

Snow showers are expected to increase in the wake of the lead
upper-level disturbance which should be moving through the area
around 12Z. The consensus of 12Z guidance emphasizes Monday
afternoon east of the Mississippi River for the greatest coverage
of snow showers, but the higher resolution models are not
generating much coverage. Tried to cap PoPs at 50%, but ended up
with some likelies in the far eastern portions of the area.

Beyond Monday afternoon, it is difficult to pin down a time for
better coverage of snow showers, so will continue with chancy
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, with the best PoPs in the east.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 1-1.5" will be possible over
portions of southwest Indiana over the 36 hour period from Monday
through Tuesday. Elsewhere total snows will be an inch or less,
with much of the southwest half of the area seeing little if any
accumulation.

Given that it will be a dry snow and quite breezy, it will be hard
to accumulate, which should limit the impact on roads. Will not be
issuing any extra products with this forecast package, but we will
be monitoring radar trends and cannot rule out a Winter Weather
Advisory eventually becoming necessary, especially over the
Evansville Tri State.

Temperatures will feel quite chilly after our mild weekend. With
clouds holding over most of the area most of the day Tuesday, we
may be too warm, especially in the southwest. The coldest air will
arrive Tuesday night when the entire area will drop into the
teens. The winds will still be quite strong, which will take wind
chills down as low as minus 5 along I-64 at 12Z Wednesday. Even
the southern border of the area will see wind chills down to 5
above. Snow or no snow, it will be dangerously cold Tuesday night.
Will mention the cold along with the light snow accumulations in
the HWO.

A band of mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles across the
area late this afternoon and this evening, but with temperatures
well above freezing it should have little impact.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

With no substantial weather systems to worry about in the long term,
our focus continues to be the brutal cold that will be arriving
early in the week and lasts through most of the work week. Models
have definitely trended colder in the last few runs. The core of the
cold air mass will be laid out across the western Great Lakes down
into southern IL, southwest IN and central KY. 850 mb temperatures
are now forecast to be down to around -20 deg C in these locations,
which is about 5 degrees colder than what was advertised yesterday.
Latest guidance numbers reflect this drop with highs only in the 20s
for most locations within the CWA. Even though the sfc high will be
building into the area on Wednesday, the gradient will be rather
tight in the morning, so wind chills will at least be in the single
digits with some areas dropping below zero. As the high builds in
during the day, the winds will lessen but probably not until about
00Z Thursday. In addition, there may be some lingering low clouds in
our eastern counties, but we should see clearing skies as the high
builds in.

At the surface, high pressure will remain the dominant feature on
the weather maps. However, there will be an even stronger high
pressure system building in over the area for the weekend, but
models are not in agreement on how much cold air is associated with
it. In the meantime, our daily highs will likely not get out of the
20s/30s from Tuesday through Thursday, and actually not get above
freezing for parts of southern IL/southwest IN until Friday. This is
due to the highly amplified upper level pattern - we remain in
strong northwest flow for much of the week. It is only toward the
end of the week when the flow tries to relax a bit. As with most
northwest flow patterns, there will be minor waves of energy that
might have enough moisture to produce some minor precipitation.
However, as mentioned yesterday, models do not have any good
consistency on any of the projected shortwaves to be able to warrant
explicitly adding POPS to the forecast at this time. Will wait for
some additional run to run consistency before adding anything right
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 116 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight until cigs decrease to MVFR
around 12Z. Limited moisture will prevent anything but a few
sprinkles near KEVV and KOWB as a cold front passes through
tonight. However as the associated upper level trof passes through
Monday, light snow showers are likely east of the Mississippi
River, especially near KEVV and KOWB. Southwest winds will gust
AOB 30 kts until this evening, then gradually veer to the west
overnight...becoming northwest and increasing again by late
Monday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW





000
FXUS63 KPAH 071916 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
116 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 116 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion to include strong wind gusts being
observed this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time we get into the Tue/Wed
night time frames. This would be especially true if we manage to
get a light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week.
Will likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much
of the region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 116 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight until cigs decrease to MVFR
around 12Z. Limited moisture will prevent anything but a few
sprinkles near KEVV and KOWB as a cold front passes through
tonight. However as the associated upper level trof passes through
Monday, light snow showers are likely east of the Mississippi
River, especially near KEVV and KOWB. Southwest winds will gust
AOB 30 kts until this evening, then gradually veer to the west
overnight...becoming northwest and increasing again by late
Monday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM





000
FXUS63 KPAH 071757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time we get into the Tue/Wed
night time frames. This would be especially true if we manage to
get a light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week.
Will likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much
of the region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight until cigs decrease to MVFR
around 12Z. Limited moisture will prevent anything but a few
sprinkles near KEVV and KOWB as a cold front passes through
tonight. However as the associated upper level trof passes through
Monday, light snow showers are likely east of the Mississppi
River, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Southwest winds will gust AOB
25 kts until this evening, then gradually veer to the west
overnight and become northwest by late Monday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 071757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time we get into the Tue/Wed
night time frames. This would be especially true if we manage to
get a light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week.
Will likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much
of the region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight until cigs decrease to MVFR
around 12Z. Limited moisture will prevent anything but a few
sprinkles near KEVV and KOWB as a cold front passes through
tonight. However as the associated upper level trof passes through
Monday, light snow showers are likely east of the Mississppi
River, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Southwest winds will gust AOB
25 kts until this evening, then gradually veer to the west
overnight and become northwest by late Monday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM





000
FXUS63 KPAH 071757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time we get into the Tue/Wed
night time frames. This would be especially true if we manage to
get a light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week.
Will likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much
of the region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight until cigs decrease to MVFR
around 12Z. Limited moisture will prevent anything but a few
sprinkles near KEVV and KOWB as a cold front passes through
tonight. However as the associated upper level trof passes through
Monday, light snow showers are likely east of the Mississppi
River, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Southwest winds will gust AOB
25 kts until this evening, then gradually veer to the west
overnight and become northwest by late Monday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM





000
FXUS63 KPAH 071150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time week get into the Tue/Wed night
time frames. This would be especially true if we mange to get a
light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week. Will
likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much of the
region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Gusty
southwest winds will average 10 to 15 knots today with gusts to 20
knots by afternoon. The passage of a strong cold front tonight will
bring a chance of light rain--especially to KEVV and KOWB. Much
colder weather will follow the frontal passage as winds shift to the
west. MVFR conditions will develop on Monday with gusty northwest
winds and the potential for snow showers.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 071150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time week get into the Tue/Wed night
time frames. This would be especially true if we mange to get a
light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week. Will
likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much of the
region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Gusty
southwest winds will average 10 to 15 knots today with gusts to 20
knots by afternoon. The passage of a strong cold front tonight will
bring a chance of light rain--especially to KEVV and KOWB. Much
colder weather will follow the frontal passage as winds shift to the
west. MVFR conditions will develop on Monday with gusty northwest
winds and the potential for snow showers.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 070907
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
307 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time week get into the Tue/Wed night
time frames. This would be especially true if we mange to get a
light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week. Will
likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much of the
region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period,
however a frontal passage in the last 6-7 hours of the period will
bring an increase in cloudiness. South southwest winds AOB 5 knots
overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 15-18 knots
after 16Z, then swing around to the west AOB 10 knots 23-00Z in
the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 070539 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period,
however a frontal passage in the last 6-7 hours of the period will
bring an increase in cloudiness. South southwest winds AOB 5 knots
overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 15-18 knots
after 16Z, then swing around to the west AOB 10 knots 23-00Z in
the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 070539 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period,
however a frontal passage in the last 6-7 hours of the period will
bring an increase in cloudiness. South southwest winds AOB 5 knots
overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 15-18 knots
after 16Z, then swing around to the west AOB 10 knots 23-00Z in
the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 070539 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period,
however a frontal passage in the last 6-7 hours of the period will
bring an increase in cloudiness. South southwest winds AOB 5 knots
overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 15-18 knots
after 16Z, then swing around to the west AOB 10 knots 23-00Z in
the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 062329 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should produce VFR
conditions at all sites through the period. South southwest winds
AOB 5 knots overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up
to 15-18 knots after 16Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 062329 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should produce VFR
conditions at all sites through the period. South southwest winds
AOB 5 knots overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up
to 15-18 knots after 16Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 062329 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 529 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should produce VFR
conditions at all sites through the period. South southwest winds
AOB 5 knots overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up
to 15-18 knots after 16Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 062022
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly high
clouds. Southwest winds will become light tonight and increase
during the late morning on Sunday. Some gusts of 16-18kt possible
at all sites after 16z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...PS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 061738
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly high
clouds. Southwest winds will become light tonight and increase
during the late morning on Sunday. Some gusts of 16-18kt possible
at all sites after 16z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...PS





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