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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 426 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fair weather high pressure will stay in control through the
weekend. Unlike the last high pressure, which came southeast of
Canada, this one will build in from the west and will be quite a
bit milder. Expect warm and pleasant afternoons with highs well
in the 70s to around 80, and overnight lows down in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High pressure will move off the southeast coast on Monday, then
models show a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region
by 12z Tuesday.  GFS, ECMWF and GEM bring the associated cold front
just northwest of our region by 12z Tuesday.  ECMWF is about 6 hours
faster bringing some precip into our far west/northwest counties
before 12z Tuesday, while GFS/GEM hold off until after 12z, but
models are in much better agreement overall.  Continued with some
small pops for our far west/northwest counties late Monday night,
then high chance pops across the entire PAH forecast area Tuesday.
By 12z Wednesday, models show the front southeast of our region, so
our northwest counties should be dry Tuesday night, with precip
tapering off across the rest of our counties from northwest to
southeast Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  After dry conditions
Wednesday night, models show a weak upper level trof, and some show
a smattering of precip.  Went with some slight chance pops for
showers for now.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday.

With gusty south winds and some sunshine, temperatures will remain
well above normal Monday and Monday night.  A cool down will begin
Tuesday with the clouds and precip and especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the cold front.  Readings for the end of the work
week will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 426 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Models take the mid and upper moisture just upstream
into/overtop the terminals later tonight-tmrw, as a front makes
passage through the mid Mississippi river valley. Weak warm
advection ahead of this could lead to some MVFR restrictions to
vsbys or with cigs tonight, with gradually improving flight
conditions anticipated through the course of the day tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 242003
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fair weather high pressure will stay in control through the
weekend. Unlike the last high pressure, which came southeast of
Canada, this one will build in from the west and will be quite a
bit milder. Expect warm and pleasant afternoons with highs well
in the 70s to around 80, and overnight lows down in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High pressure will move off the southeast coast on Monday, then
models show a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region
by 12z Tuesday.  GFS, ECMWF and GEM bring the associated cold front
just northwest of our region by 12z Tuesday.  ECMWF is about 6 hours
faster bringing some precip into our far west/northwest counties
before 12z Tuesday, while GFS/GEM hold off until after 12z, but
models are in much better agreement overall.  Continued with some
small pops for our far west/northwest counties late Monday night,
then high chance pops across the entire PAH forecast area Tuesday.
By 12z Wednesday, models show the front southeast of our region, so
our northwest counties should be dry Tuesday night, with precip
tapering off across the rest of our counties from northwest to
southeast Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  After dry conditions
Wednesday night, models show a weak upper level trof, and some show
a smattering of precip.  Went with some slight chance pops for
showers for now.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday.

With gusty south winds and some sunshine, temperatures will remain
well above normal Monday and Monday night.  A cool down will begin
Tuesday with the clouds and precip and especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the cold front.  Readings for the end of the work
week will be near to slightly below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Low clouds finally made it to the taf sites by 11z. Most cigs are
vfr...but mvfr cigs reached kcgi. The clouds will inhibit any
significant fog formation. Based on the abundance of low clouds
upstream across Missouri and Illinois...it will take some time for
clearing to occur. Expect daytime heating to finally scatter out the
clouds late this morning or early this afternoon. Late tonight...it
is likely that some low clouds or fog will develop in a weak
southwest wind flow of moist air.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 241135
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last in a series of shortwaves in this northwest flow pattern is
progressing through the middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
Areas of mid clouds are accompanying this shortwave across our
region this morning. Some patchy fog may form where skies are still
clear through sunrise...mainly in western Kentucky. In the wake of
the shortwave passage...skies will become mainly sunny this
afternoon. Light west to southwest winds combined with the
increasing sunshine will push highs to around 70.

Tonight...low level warm moist advection associated with southwest
winds should result in some increase in low cloudiness. Low temps
will be mainly in the lower 50s.

Over the weekend...a large upper ridge over the Plains will progress
eastward across the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bring
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Most of the model guidance is
warmer than previous runs...especially for Sunday. Highs should
reach 80 across a large portion of the forecast area on Sunday.

Little in the way of cloudiness or wind is expected Saturday night.
Strong radiational cooling will result in a rather chilly start to
Sunday...with lows in the upper 40s in most places. Conditions will
be favorable for ground fog late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Not much change to the long term. Going forecast on track. Just some
timing adjustments. Will use a blend of previous input with the
latest trends seen via the GFS/ECMWF ops and ensemble mean
solutions. General agreement exists overall. Parent h5 system still
forecast to track across the northern tier of states along the
US/Canadian border, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Tue. A
trailing cold front at that time will be approaching our NW CWFA
counties. Tuesday still looks like the day with the best chance of
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two as the front weakens and
moves through. Will taper off PoPs from NW to SE Tuesday night, with
small chances of showers limited to our AR/TN border counties
Wednesday. We have no PoPs in for Wednesday night and Thursday. That
may change as the ensembles still show the mean trof position to our
west, with the ops models hinting that another wave may move across
the area Halloween. Will wait for more run to run continuity as
variability continues to exist. Monday dry and unseasonably warm,
then we cool back down with the passage of the front Tuesday. A
blend of existing numbers, HPC and MOS were used for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Low clouds finally made it to the taf sites by 11z. Most cigs are
vfr...but mvfr cigs reached kcgi. The clouds will inhibit any
significant fog formation. Based on the abundance of low clouds
upstream across Missouri and Illinois...it will take some time for
clearing to occur. Expect daytime heating to finally scatter out the
clouds late this morning or early this afternoon. Late tonight...it
is likely that some low clouds or fog will develop in a weak
southwest wind flow of moist air.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN












000
FXUS63 KPAH 240801
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last in a series of shortwaves in this northwest flow pattern is
progressing through the middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
Areas of mid clouds are accompanying this shortwave across our
region this morning. Some patchy fog may form where skies are still
clear through sunrise...mainly in western Kentucky. In the wake of
the shortwave passage...skies will become mainly sunny this
afternoon. Light west to southwest winds combined with the
increasing sunshine will push highs to around 70.

Tonight...low level warm moist advection associated with southwest
winds should result in some increase in low cloudiness. Low temps
will be mainly in the lower 50s.

Over the weekend...a large upper ridge over the Plains will progress
eastward across the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bring
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Most of the model guidance is
warmer than previous runs...especially for Sunday. Highs should
reach 80 across a large portion of the forecast area on Sunday.

Little in the way of cloudiness or wind is expected Saturday night.
Strong radiational cooling will result in a rather chilly start to
Sunday...with lows in the upper 40s in most places. Conditions will
be favorable for ground fog late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Not much change to the long term. Going forecast on track. Just some
timing adjustments. Will use a blend of previous input with the
latest trends seen via the GFS/ECMWF ops and ensemble mean
solutions. General agreement exists overall. Parent h5 system still
forecast to track across the northern tier of states along the
US/Canadian border, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Tue. A
trailing cold front at that time will be approaching our NW CWFA
counties. Tuesday still looks like the day with the best chance of
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two as the front weakens and
moves through. Will taper off PoPs from NW to SE Tuesday night, with
small chances of showers limited to our AR/TN border counties
Wednesday. We have no PoPs in for Wednesday night and Thursday. That
may change as the ensembles still show the mean trof position to our
west, with the ops models hinting that another wave may move across
the area Halloween. Will wait for more run to run continuity as
variability continues to exist. Monday dry and unseasonably warm,
then we cool back down with the passage of the front Tuesday. A
blend of existing numbers, HPC and MOS were used for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Introduced mention of fog into the tafs for the remainder of tonight
into the early morning hours. Large areas of clearing have developed
in the mid level overcast...allowing some fog to form already at a
few sites. Lower clouds based around 4k feet will attempt to
overspread our region from the northwest toward sunrise. This
cloudiness will help mitigate fog potential if it makes it here.
Vsbys may be worse than forecast if these clouds do not arrive by
sunrise. Once fog burns off...vfr conditions are expected for the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN










000
FXUS63 KPAH 240542
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation discussion for 06Z TAF Issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Introduced mention of fog into the tafs for the remainder of tonight
into the early morning hours. Large areas of clearing have developed
in the mid level overcast...allowing some fog to form already at a
few sites. Lower clouds based around 4k feet will attempt to
overspread our region from the northwest toward sunrise. This
cloudiness will help mitigate fog potential if it makes it here.
Vsbys may be worse than forecast if these clouds do not arrive by
sunrise. Once fog burns off...vfr conditions are expected for the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 232152
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mainly mid decks are anticipated with the passage of the weak
boundary tonight-tmrw morning. This will probably inhibit fog
development tonight, or at least minimize its vsby restrictions if
it does develop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 232152
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mainly mid decks are anticipated with the passage of the weak
boundary tonight-tmrw morning. This will probably inhibit fog
development tonight, or at least minimize its vsby restrictions if
it does develop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 231951
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST










000
FXUS63 KPAH 231951
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST










000
FXUS63 KPAH 231947
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof
should pass by just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will
likely just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. Chilly
sfc high that has been over the region for the past couple of
days will finally drift farther east of the region by
Friday/Friday night, allowing a significant warming trend to get
underway. Could be another round of high clouds later Friday night
into Sat, but all in all, should be a nice start to the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 231947
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof
should pass by just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will
likely just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. Chilly
sfc high that has been over the region for the past couple of
days will finally drift farther east of the region by
Friday/Friday night, allowing a significant warming trend to get
underway. Could be another round of high clouds later Friday night
into Sat, but all in all, should be a nice start to the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 231154
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
652 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Main concerns early this morning are patchy frost and fog. The
coldest temps so far have been in the mid 30s across parts of
southern Illinois...from the kmvn/kmdh corridor east to Harrisburg.
Temps elsewhere were still in the 39 to 44 degree range at 08z. For
most of our region...it appears frost coverage will be patchy this
morning. As far as the fog...there has not been any dense fog so
far...but there will likely be some dense fog patches around
sunrise. Added mention of patchy fog to zones/grids for early this
morning.

Satellite indicates mid and high clouds over western Missouri and
Arkansas are making steady eastward progress. This cloudiness is
associated with a weakening 500 mb shortwave trough that will reach
the Mississippi River this afternoon. Very dry air in the low levels
/associated with the surface high over our region/ will negate any
mention of precip today. Model high temp guidance has been running a
little too cool on recent days...so will keep forecast highs a
degree or two above mos.

During the night tonight...another shortwave trough will move
quickly southeast across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This
system will keep some mid and high cloudiness over our region. Temps
will be milder due to the clouds and light southwest winds behind
the retreating surface ridge.

On Friday...light southwest winds and clearing skies should combine
to push high temps to at least 70 degrees in much of our region. The
relatively mild conditions will continue Friday night.

On Saturday...model guidance is in good agreement that a weak
surface cold front will move southeast across our region. The nam is
the most aggressive with moisture return ahead of this front. The
nam indicates some light precip will accompany the front...but it
remains an outlier. Will keep the forecast dry...but a band of low
cloudiness is likely to precede or accompany the front. Given the
warm start to the day and increasing afternoon sunshine...guidance
highs in the mid to upper 70s look reasonable. Cooler and drier
conditions will arrive behind the front Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term is based on a blend of the latest and previous
ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF. This should minimize any
model errors and discrepancies in handling more specific features
within broad progressive w/e flow across the conus. Moderate run to
run issues exist with the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF.

Sunday and Monday should be dry with above normal temperatures. SW
flow aloft will develop, while a warm front lifts north of the
region. By 18z Monday, a strong high should cover the Atlantic
states and coast with low pressure over the upper Midwest, and a
trailing front into the southern high plains. No precip with a very
dry airmass over the region.

Tuesday, energy aloft will move out of the nations mid section,
accompanied by the arrival of a modest cold front. Think most of
Monday night will be dry. However chances for showers increase
substantially Tuesday. As the energy moves NE, with the surface
low moving north of the Great Lakes, the movement of the boundary
and progression of forcing and moisture should slow. Carried higher
PoPs into Tuesday night, then lowered them from NW to SE Wednesday,
dry for now Wednesday night. Have added a thunder mention as
instability parameters suggest the possibility.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shallow ground fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. Mid and high
clouds will increase later this morning and this afternoon...but
cigs will be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high
pressure holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog
appears lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some
shallow ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN











000
FXUS63 KPAH 230836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Main concerns early this morning are patchy frost and fog. The
coldest temps so far have been in the mid 30s across parts of
southern Illinois...from the kmvn/kmdh corridor east to Harrisburg.
Temps elsewhere were still in the 39 to 44 degree range at 08z. For
most of our region...it appears frost coverage will be patchy this
morning. As far as the fog...there has not been any dense fog so
far...but there will likely be some dense fog patches around
sunrise. Added mention of patchy fog to zones/grids for early this
morning.

Satellite indicates mid and high clouds over western Missouri and
Arkansas are making steady eastward progress. This cloudiness is
associated with a weakening 500 mb shortwave trough that will reach
the Mississippi River this afternoon. Very dry air in the low levels
/associated with the surface high over our region/ will negate any
mention of precip today. Model high temp guidance has been running a
little too cool on recent days...so will keep forecast highs a
degree or two above mos.

During the night tonight...another shortwave trough will move
quickly southeast across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This
system will keep some mid and high cloudiness over our region. Temps
will be milder due to the clouds and light southwest winds behind
the retreating surface ridge.

On Friday...light southwest winds and clearing skies should combine
to push high temps to at least 70 degrees in much of our region. The
relatively mild conditions will continue Friday night.

On Saturday...model guidance is in good agreement that a weak
surface cold front will move southeast across our region. The nam is
the most aggressive with moisture return ahead of this front. The
nam indicates some light precip will accompany the front...but it
remains an outlier. Will keep the forecast dry...but a band of low
cloudiness is likely to precede or accompany the front. Given the
warm start to the day and increasing afternoon sunshine...guidance
highs in the mid to upper 70s look reasonable. Cooler and drier
conditions will arrive behind the front Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term is based on a blend of the latest and previous
ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF. This should minimize any
model errors and discrepancies in handling more specific features
within broad progressive w/e flow across the conus. Moderate run to
run issues exist with the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF.

Sunday and Monday should be dry with above normal temperatures. SW
flow aloft will develop, while a warm front lifts north of the
region. By 18z Monday, a strong high should cover the Atlantic
states and coast with low pressure over the upper Midwest, and a
trailing front into the southern high plains. No precip with a very
dry airmass over the region.

Tuesday, energy aloft will move out of the nations mid section,
accompanied by the arrival of a modest cold front. Think most of
Monday night will be dry. However chances for showers increase
substantially Tuesday. As the energy moves NE, with the surface
low moving north of the Great Lakes, the movement of the boundary
and progression of forcing and moisture should slow. Carried higher
PoPs into Tuesday night, then lowered them from NW to SE Wednesday,
dry for now Wednesday night. Have added a thunder mention as
instability parameters suggest the possibility.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Some shallow ground fog will continue to thicken up through sunrise.
There may be some very poor vsby at the asos sites around
sunrise...primarily kpah and kcgi. It should be rather brief...since
the sun will be very effective at burning it off. Mid and high
clouds will increase later this morning and this afternoon...but
cigs will be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high
pressure holds sway through this evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN









000
FXUS63 KPAH 222203
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will continue in control of the
weather tonight. Main forecast challenge continues to lie with
frost potential later tonight. Current dew points are mostly in
the lower 40s. Much like last night, clear and calm conditions
will allow temps to fall off quickly after sunset. Sfc temps will
likely end up driving dew point down after midnight, creating
another heavy dew situation. This will usually preclude much frost
formation with above freezing temperatures. So, have decided to
hold off on any frost headlines, but will still mention areas of
frost in areas along/east of the MS River. Normally colder
locations could end up close to freezing by sunrise.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system. Should be one
more chilly day with highs in the 60s. Sfc high will finally drift
farther east of the region by Friday/Friday night, allowing a
significant warming trend to get underway.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend into Monday as an upper level ridge moves across the PAH
forecast area.

Models continue to flip flop with their solutions with the
Tuesday/Wednesday cold front passage. ECMWF and GFS sometimes take
the front through pretty quickly late Monday night into early
Tuesday night, and sometimes stall the front over our region through
at least Wednesday.  The best agreement and most consistency between
the models is precipitation moving into our west/northwest counties
late Monday night, with good chances through the day Tuesday.  After
Tuesday, confidence drops off more.  Will continue with slight to
low chance pops for showers for our west/northwest counties late
Monday night, then chance pops area wide on Tuesday.  By Tuesday
night, went with slight chance pops west to chance pops east, which
somewhat is a compromise of the two solutions.  By Wednesday, went
with cooler temperatures based on the belief we should be north of
the front in either case.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

No clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast tonight as a surface
high pressure ridge passes overhead. This may lead to potential
for ground fog...with some ifr conditions possible toward
sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites. As the high shifts east
tmrw, some high clouds will begin to move in from the west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 222009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will continue in control of the
weather tonight. Main forecast challenge continues to lie with
frost potential later tonight. Current dew points are mostly in
the lower 40s. Much like last night, clear and calm conditions
will allow temps to fall off quickly after sunset. Sfc temps will
likely end up driving dew point down after midnight, creating
another heavy dew situation. This will usually preclude much frost
formation with above freezing temperatures. So, have decided to
hold off on any frost headlines, but will still mention areas of
frost in areas along/east of the MS River. Normally colder
locations could end up close to freezing by sunrise.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system. Should be one
more chilly day with highs in the 60s. Sfc high will finally drift
farther east of the region by Friday/Friday night, allowing a
significant warming trend to get underway.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend into Monday as an upper level ridge moves across the PAH
forecast area.

Models continue to flip flop with their solutions with the
Tuesday/Wednesday cold front passage. ECMWF and GFS sometimes take
the front through pretty quickly late Monday night into early
Tuesday night, and sometimes stall the front over our region through
at least Wednesday.  The best agreement and most consistency between
the models is precipitation moving into our west/northwest counties
late Monday night, with good chances through the day Tuesday.  After
Tuesday, confidence drops off more.  Will continue with slight to
low chance pops for showers for our west/northwest counties late
Monday night, then chance pops area wide on Tuesday.  By Tuesday
night, went with slight chance pops west to chance pops east, which
somewhat is a compromise of the two solutions.  By Wednesday, went
with cooler temperatures based on the belief we should be north of
the front in either case.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

No clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast through this evening.
As a surface high pressure ridge passes overhead tonight...winds
will become calm. This will be more conducive for ground fog than
the past few nights. Some ifr conditions are possible toward
sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 221124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Today will be another sunny day for most of our region. There may
be some afternoon cumulus clouds again in southwest Indiana and
adjoining areas...but coverage will be less than Tuesday. As for
high temps...will keep forecast highs a little above model
guidance for most areas. Nearly all guidance shows highs will be 5
to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday...even though 850 mb temps
actually warm up a degree or two with another day of full sun.
Guidance showed a cool bias on Tuesday...and this appears to be
the case again today. The exception to this bias is in the
Evansville region...where clouds kept temps close to guidance
Tuesday.

The main forecast concern for tonight is still frost. A surface
ridge axis will be nearly overhead late tonight. Surface winds
will become nearly calm...which is not the case at this current
hour. The ongoing winds are likely keeping temps several degrees
higher than they will be early Thursday morning. Again prefer the
00z ecmwf mos lows...which are colder than other guidance. The in-
house weighted model...which uses the best performing guidance
over recent model cycles...is in excellent agreement with the
ecmwf. This means that many areas will fall into the mid
30s. Frost is likely in outlying and rural areas...so will
continue the mention of patchy frost in zones/grids and hwo. There
is still not enough confidence in a more widespread frost to issue
a Frost Advisory. The day shift will re-evaluate the need for an
advisory for widespread frost.

On Thursday...an increase in mid and high cloudiness will occur
ahead of a weakening shortwave trough moving southeast from the
Upper Mississippi Valley. These clouds will keep temps on the cool
side despite the wind shift into the southwest. The clouds will
persist through Thursday night. The 00z ecmwf is still the outlier
in generating a little light rain across southwest Indiana and
adjoining counties. Will keep the forecast dry...as nearly all
other guidance indicates.

Friday and Friday night will become mainly clear as a large upper
level ridge builds east from the Plains. Low level winds will become
west to southwest...bringing a warming trend.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very little to discuss through most of the long term period.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is expected to
produce plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the
rest of the work week, the upcoming weekend, and the first day of
next week.

The next chance of precipitation is forecast to make its way into
the far western/northwestern portions of our CWA Next Monday night
with the approach of a weather system coming out of the plains.
Confidence in the evolution of this system is rather low at the
moment as latest long range models not in good agreement.

Around midday Monday the GFS and ECMWF are similar in that they show
the driving mechanism behind this system (a short wave) located over
Colorado. Beyond that their solutions really begin to diverge.

The GFS takes the short wave and associated surface low on a track
from Colorado northeast into the Great Lakes region by midday
Tuesday with a cold front trailing southwest into the southern
plains. During the same 24 hours the ECMWF drives the short wave,
surface low, and front almost due east with all of them moving into
the western/northwestern sections of our CWA.

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night the GFS shows the frontal
boundary becoming more parallel to the southwest flow aloft thereby
hanging it up over the northwest half of our CWA. In the same time
frame, the ECMWF promptly moves the system across our CWA, then off
to the east.

Either solution means better chances for precipitation across our
CWA on Tuesday, but obviously the evolution of this system will make
all the difference where placement of QPF is concerned. We will
continue to closely monitor future model runs in hopes that
eventually there will be better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Some ground fog at kcgi will burn off quickly after sunrise.
Otherwise...no clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast through this
evening. As a surface high pressure ridge passes overhead
tonight...winds will become calm. This will be more conducive for
ground fog than the past few nights. Some ifr conditions are
possible toward sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 220805
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Today will be another sunny day for most of our region. There may
be some afternoon cumulus clouds again in southwest Indiana and
adjoining areas...but coverage will be less than Tuesday. As for
high temps...will keep forecast highs a little above model
guidance for most areas. Nearly all guidance shows highs will be 5
to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday...even though 850 mb temps
actually warm up a degree or two with another day of full sun.
Guidance showed a cool bias on Tuesday...and this appears to be
the case again today. The exception to this bias is in the
Evansville region...where clouds kept temps close to guidance
Tuesday.

The main forecast concern for tonight is still frost. A surface
ridge axis will be nearly overhead late tonight. Surface winds
will become nearly calm...which is not the case at this current
hour. The ongoing winds are likely keeping temps several degrees
higher than they will be early Thursday morning. Again prefer the
00z ecmwf mos lows...which are colder than other guidance. The in-
house weighted model...which uses the best performing guidance
over recent model cycles...is in excellent agreement with the
ecmwf. This means that many areas will fall into the mid
30s. Frost is likely in outlying and rural areas...so will
continue the mention of patchy frost in zones/grids and hwo. There
is still not enough confidence in a more widespread frost to issue
a Frost Advisory. The day shift will re-evaluate the need for an
advisory for widespread frost.

On Thursday...an increase in mid and high cloudiness will occur
ahead of a weakening shortwave trough moving southeast from the
Upper Mississippi Valley. These clouds will keep temps on the cool
side despite the wind shift into the southwest. The clouds will
persist through Thursday night. The 00z ecmwf is still the outlier
in generating a little light rain across southwest Indiana and
adjoining counties. Will keep the forecast dry...as nearly all
other guidance indicates.

Friday and Friday night will become mainly clear as a large upper
level ridge builds east from the Plains. Low level winds will become
west to southwest...bringing a warming trend.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very little to discuss through most of the long term period.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is expected to
produce plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the
rest of the work week, the upcoming weekend, and the first day of
next week.

The next chance of precipitation is forecast to make its way into
the far western/northwestern portions of our CWA Next Monday night
with the approach of a weather system coming out of the plains.
Confidence in the evolution of this system is rather low at the
moment as latest long range models not in good agreement.

Around midday Monday the GFS and ECMWF are similar in that they show
the driving mechanism behind this system (a short wave) located over
Colorado. Beyond that their solutions really begin to diverge.

The GFS takes the short wave and associated surface low on a track
from Colorado northeast into the Great Lakes region by midday
Tuesday with a cold front trailing southwest into the southern
plains. During the same 24 hours the ECMWF drives the short wave,
surface low, and front almost due east with all of them moving into
the western/northwestern sections of our CWA.

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night the GFS shows the frontal
boundary becoming more parallel to the southwest flow aloft thereby
hanging it up over the northwest half of our CWA. In the same time
frame, the ECMWF promptly moves the system across our CWA, then off
to the east.

Either solution means better chances for precipitation across our
CWA on Tuesday, but obviously the evolution of this system will make
all the difference where placement of QPF is concerned. We will
continue to closely monitor future model runs in hopes that
eventually there will be better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 220435
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 220435
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 212336
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

With surface high pressure entrenched over the region, light
northeast winds and clear skies will be the rule throughout the
00Z TAF period. The exceptions are a few cu that may flirt with
KEVV and KOWB later this evening, as well as the usual late night
fog potential at KCGI, if winds can die off enough there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








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