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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020720
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
220 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Only average confidence in the short term due to subtle model
differences regarding multiple light precipitation events.

With the approach of an H5 short wave out of the central plains and
a surface low tracking northeast across the deep south,
precipitation is forecast to develop over the area today, especially
the southeast half of the CWA. There may be just enough instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky for thunder,
so mentioned it there only.

Until the passage of said H5 short wave this evening, scattered
showers will be possible mainly over the northeast half of the CWA.
As another short wave drops southeast across the region as it
rotates around the southwest flank of a huge upper low just north of
the Great lakes region on Tuesday, small precipitation chances are
possible over parts of southeast IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY
where deep layer moisture will be greatest. Tuesday night should be
dry in the wake of this feature.

On Wednesday another short wave rotating around the big low will
push a cold front southward across the region. Again precipitation
chances should be limited to mainly the northeast half of the CWA
where moisture is expected to be deepest. Small precipitation
chances may linger over the far eastern sections of our CWA
Wednesday evening, then dry after midnight.

Temperatures will average at to just below normal through the short
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

We will start out the long term period with strong northwesterly
flow over the region as a closed low over the Appalachians
eventually moves out to the eastern seaboard. Sfc high pressure to
our northwest will steadily build into the area by Thursday night
and into Friday providing dry weather. Lingering low level moisture
will likely mean will have some cloudiness to deal with on Thursday
as this upper low departs, mainly in our eastern sections. This will
keep temperatures cool there and in the 60s while most of SEMO will
be seeing around 70 degrees.

While we will remain in northwesterly flow aloft into Friday, we
will begin to see upper heights rising as a highly amplified upper
ridge in the central part of the CONUS steadily moves eastward.
Therefore, with that said and hopefully less cloudiness, we should
be able to get everyone into the 70s by Friday. Upper 70s should be
no problem to reach by Saturday as upper heights rise even further,
and the sfc high over the region sags southward allowing our winds
to finally shift to the southwest.

Our next chance for rain may arrive as early as Sunday/Sunday night
but models are differing on the speed of our next frontal system.
The ECMWF brings the front south into northern parts of the area on
Sunday and then lift it back north as a warm front Sunday night and
Monday. The 00Z GFS indicates the front never really makes it into
our CWA before the parent system shifts eastward and brings
precipitation into the area for Monday. Still too many details to be
ironed out to warrant getting carried away with anything more than

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A cold front has just passed through all sites. Winds will
generally be from the northwest at or below 10kts through the
period. A series of upper-level disturbances will attempt to bring
some light showers to the area Monday and Monday evening, but
nothing that would impact aviation. The main concern will be a
large mass of MVFR ceilings that should reach KEVV, but the
southward extend of these ceilings is in question. Left it out at
the other locations. Elsewhere, a lower VFR ceiling is expected to
develop by late afternoon and continue through the evening.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 020720
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
220 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Only average confidence in the short term due to subtle model
differences regarding multiple light precipitation events.

With the approach of an H5 short wave out of the central plains and
a surface low tracking northeast across the deep south,
precipitation is forecast to develop over the area today, especially
the southeast half of the CWA. There may be just enough instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky for thunder,
so mentioned it there only.

Until the passage of said H5 short wave this evening, scattered
showers will be possible mainly over the northeast half of the CWA.
As another short wave drops southeast across the region as it
rotates around the southwest flank of a huge upper low just north of
the Great lakes region on Tuesday, small precipitation chances are
possible over parts of southeast IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY
where deep layer moisture will be greatest. Tuesday night should be
dry in the wake of this feature.

On Wednesday another short wave rotating around the big low will
push a cold front southward across the region. Again precipitation
chances should be limited to mainly the northeast half of the CWA
where moisture is expected to be deepest. Small precipitation
chances may linger over the far eastern sections of our CWA
Wednesday evening, then dry after midnight.

Temperatures will average at to just below normal through the short
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

We will start out the long term period with strong northwesterly
flow over the region as a closed low over the Appalachians
eventually moves out to the eastern seaboard. Sfc high pressure to
our northwest will steadily build into the area by Thursday night
and into Friday providing dry weather. Lingering low level moisture
will likely mean will have some cloudiness to deal with on Thursday
as this upper low departs, mainly in our eastern sections. This will
keep temperatures cool there and in the 60s while most of SEMO will
be seeing around 70 degrees.

While we will remain in northwesterly flow aloft into Friday, we
will begin to see upper heights rising as a highly amplified upper
ridge in the central part of the CONUS steadily moves eastward.
Therefore, with that said and hopefully less cloudiness, we should
be able to get everyone into the 70s by Friday. Upper 70s should be
no problem to reach by Saturday as upper heights rise even further,
and the sfc high over the region sags southward allowing our winds
to finally shift to the southwest.

Our next chance for rain may arrive as early as Sunday/Sunday night
but models are differing on the speed of our next frontal system.
The ECMWF brings the front south into northern parts of the area on
Sunday and then lift it back north as a warm front Sunday night and
Monday. The 00Z GFS indicates the front never really makes it into
our CWA before the parent system shifts eastward and brings
precipitation into the area for Monday. Still too many details to be
ironed out to warrant getting carried away with anything more than

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A cold front has just passed through all sites. Winds will
generally be from the northwest at or below 10kts through the
period. A series of upper-level disturbances will attempt to bring
some light showers to the area Monday and Monday evening, but
nothing that would impact aviation. The main concern will be a
large mass of MVFR ceilings that should reach KEVV, but the
southward extend of these ceilings is in question. Left it out at
the other locations. Elsewhere, a lower VFR ceiling is expected to
develop by late afternoon and continue through the evening.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 020449
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC
considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or
locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists,
but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and
mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most
part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will
diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight.
Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern
sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model
discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just
slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE
of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS
blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast
beyond tonight was an even blend of model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western
limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of
the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a
more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low
will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity
mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois
counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a
differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon
hours.

By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High
Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and
places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least
early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking
pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the
Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson
Bay low.  The combination of all of these systems impresses and
maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A cold front has just passed through all sites. Winds will
generally be from the northwest at or below 10kts through the
period. A series of upper-level disturbances will attempt to bring
some light showers to the area Monday and Monday evening, but
nothing that would impact aviation. The main concern will be a
large mass of MVFR ceilings that should reach KEVV, but the
southward extend of these ceilings is in question. Left it out at
the other locations. Elsewhere, a lower VFR ceiling is expected to
develop by late afternoon and continue through the evening.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 020449
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC
considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or
locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists,
but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and
mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most
part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will
diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight.
Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern
sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model
discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just
slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE
of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS
blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast
beyond tonight was an even blend of model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western
limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of
the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a
more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low
will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity
mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois
counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a
differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon
hours.

By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High
Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and
places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least
early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking
pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the
Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson
Bay low.  The combination of all of these systems impresses and
maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A cold front has just passed through all sites. Winds will
generally be from the northwest at or below 10kts through the
period. A series of upper-level disturbances will attempt to bring
some light showers to the area Monday and Monday evening, but
nothing that would impact aviation. The main concern will be a
large mass of MVFR ceilings that should reach KEVV, but the
southward extend of these ceilings is in question. Left it out at
the other locations. Elsewhere, a lower VFR ceiling is expected to
develop by late afternoon and continue through the evening.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012352
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

It never fails. Cancel the Watch, and the lone shower left
decides to pulse up.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC
considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or
locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists,
but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and
mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most
part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will
diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight.
Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern
sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model
discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just
slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE
of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS
blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast
beyond tonight was an even blend of model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western
limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of
the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a
more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low
will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity
mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois
counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a
differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon
hours.

By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High
Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and
places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least
early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking
pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the
Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson
Bay low.  The combination of all of these systems impresses and
maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Will have to watch for showers and possibly thunderstorms at KEVV
and KOWB through about 06Z, then the front should be through all
TAF sites with a modest northwest breeze expected overnight. A
large mass of lower MVFR ceilings will shift east southeast and
may impact KEVV for much of Monday. Not sure how far south it
will make it into our area, so will keep the ceilings out of KOWB
for now. 4-5kft ceiling is likely to develop over the remainder of
the area in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012352
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

It never fails. Cancel the Watch, and the lone shower left
decides to pulse up.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC
considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or
locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists,
but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and
mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most
part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will
diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight.
Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern
sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model
discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just
slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE
of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS
blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast
beyond tonight was an even blend of model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western
limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of
the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a
more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low
will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity
mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois
counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a
differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon
hours.

By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High
Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and
places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least
early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking
pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the
Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson
Bay low.  The combination of all of these systems impresses and
maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Will have to watch for showers and possibly thunderstorms at KEVV
and KOWB through about 06Z, then the front should be through all
TAF sites with a modest northwest breeze expected overnight. A
large mass of lower MVFR ceilings will shift east southeast and
may impact KEVV for much of Monday. Not sure how far south it
will make it into our area, so will keep the ceilings out of KOWB
for now. 4-5kft ceiling is likely to develop over the remainder of
the area in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011819
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
119 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC
considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or
locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists,
but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and
mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most
part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will
diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight.
Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern
sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model
discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just
slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE
of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS
blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast
beyond tonight was an even blend of model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western
limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of
the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a
more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low
will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity
mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois
counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a
differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon
hours.

By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High
Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and
places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least
early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking
pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the
Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson
Bay low.  The combination of all of these systems impresses and
maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Large area of CU/Strato-CU over the region with low VFR to MVFR
cig conditions. Should continue to see bases rise through the
afternoon with modest mixing gradually decreasing coverage as
well. SW winds will gradually become W/NW this evening and
overnight, with speeds below 10 kts. Scattered showers and storms
are expected. Chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. Will monitor closely and update as needed.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011713
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Scattered convection continued overnight mainly over parts of
southern IL, southwest IN and southeast MO. At 07Z, the front,
although hard to find, looks like it is entering our western
counties attm per the latest observation at KPOF. The front
should continue to make slow eastward progress the rest of the
overnight hours and be bisecting our CWA by around 12Z. Lingering
showers and isolated storms will likely be around as this occurs
but there should be a downward trend.

While there will probably be a brief lull this morning in additional
development, the HRRR/RAP suggests redevelopment ahead of the
frontal boundary by later this morning and into the afternoon hours,
mainly across southern IL, southwest IN and west KY. SPC has
highlighted parts of southeast IL/southwest IN in a marginal risk
for severe weather due to a strengthening winds in the mid levels as
an upper level impulse from the central Plains moves eastward into
the Great Lakes region today into this evening. Therefore, some of
the storms that develop may be capable of producing some severe
hail/wind.

The aforementioned front and upper level impulse should move east of
the area overnight, ending chances for precipitation.

The first in a series of two upper level waves will be right on the
heels of the departing front. While models have had some serious
issues resolving this upper pattern for the past several days now,
it appears there is at least some consistency between models that
Monday will not be as dry as we initially thought. The GFS/ECMWF
still indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be in
our southern areas. This has been the case all along so feel
comfortable raising POPs there a bit. Models differ on the amount of
moisture we have to work with and instability looks non existent so
POPS will remain low elsewhere and just showers mentioned.

The secondary impulse looks to come through on Tuesday and possibly
bring additional showers to the area. Right now, will go with just a
slight chance until we gain a better grasp on how these systems will
actually evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to better model agreement.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low centered over the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low that
will dive southeast and push a cold front across the region on
Wednesday. There should be just enough deep layer moisture to
produce small precipitation chances over the northeast half of the
CWA with the passage of these features. With just enough upper level
energy and moisture left over, small precipitation chances may
linger into Wednesday evening over the far eastern sections of our
CWA.

The upper low is forecast to drift slowly southeast through the
latter half of the week ending up over the mid Atlantic seaboard by
the end of the period. Rising H5 heights/ridging aloft in its wake
will bring temperatures back to above normal and keep the region dry
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Large area of CU/Strato-CU over the region with low VFR to MVFR
cig conditions. Should continue to see bases rise through the
afternoon with modest mixing gradually decreasing coverage as
well. SW winds will gradually become W/NW this evening and
overnight, with speeds below 10 kts. Scattered showers and storms
are expected. Chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. Will monitor closely and update as needed.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011120 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Scattered convection continued overnight mainly over parts of
southern IL, southwest IN and southeast MO. At 07Z, the front,
although hard to find, looks like it is entering our western
counties attm per the latest observation at KPOF. The front
should continue to make slow eastward progress the rest of the
overnight hours and be bisecting our CWA by around 12Z. Lingering
showers and isolated storms will likely be around as this occurs
but there should be a downward trend.

While there will probably be a brief lull this morning in additional
development, the HRRR/RAP suggests redevelopment ahead of the
frontal boundary by later this morning and into the afternoon hours,
mainly across southern IL, southwest IN and west KY. SPC has
highlighted parts of southeast IL/southwest IN in a marginal risk
for severe weather due to a strengthening winds in the mid levels as
an upper level impulse from the central Plains moves eastward into
the Great Lakes region today into this evening. Therefore, some of
the storms that develop may be capable of producing some severe
hail/wind.

The aforementioned front and upper level impulse should move east of
the area overnight, ending chances for precipitation.

The first in a series of two upper level waves will be right on the
heels of the departing front. While models have had some serious
issues resolving this upper pattern for the past several days now,
it appears there is at least some consistency between models that
Monday will not be as dry as we initially thought. The GFS/ECMWF
still indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be in
our southern areas. This has been the case all along so feel
comfortable raising POPs there a bit. Models differ on the amount of
moisture we have to work with and instability looks non existent so
POPS will remain low elsewhere and just showers mentioned.

The secondary impulse looks to come through on Tuesday and possibly
bring additional showers to the area. Right now, will go with just a
slight chance until we gain a better grasp on how these systems will
actually evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to better model agreement.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low centered over the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low that
will dive southeast and push a cold front across the region on
Wednesday. There should be just enough deep layer moisture to
produce small precipitation chances over the northeast half of the
CWA with the passage of these features. With just enough upper level
energy and moisture left over, small precipitation chances may
linger into Wednesday evening over the far eastern sections of our
CWA.

The upper low is forecast to drift slowly southeast through the
latter half of the week ending up over the mid Atlantic seaboard by
the end of the period. Rising H5 heights/ridging aloft in its wake
will bring temperatures back to above normal and keep the region dry
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Ahead of a cold frontal passage, MVFR cigs possible early, then
VFR through the rest of the period. VCSH possible at KEVV/KOWB
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Light and
variable winds early will gradually pick up from the southwest aob
10 knots, then veer around to the northwest in the wake of the
cold front.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010751
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
251 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Scattered convection continued overnight mainly over parts of
southern IL, southwest IN and southeast MO. At 07Z, the front,
although hard to find, looks like it is entering our western
counties attm per the latest observation at KPOF. The front
should continue to make slow eastward progress the rest of the
overnight hours and be bisecting our CWA by around 12Z. Lingering
showers and isolated storms will likely be around as this occurs
but there should be a downward trend.

While there will probably be a brief lull this morning in additional
development, the HRRR/RAP suggests redevelopment ahead of the
frontal boundary by later this morning and into the afternoon hours,
mainly across southern IL, southwest IN and west KY. SPC has
highlighted parts of southeast IL/southwest IN in a marginal risk
for severe weather due to a strengthening winds in the mid levels as
an upper level impulse from the central Plains moves eastward into
the Great Lakes region today into this evening. Therefore, some of
the storms that develop may be capable of producing some severe
hail/wind.

The aforementioned front and upper level impulse should move east of
the area overnight, ending chances for precipitation.

The first in a series of two upper level waves will be right on the
heels of the departing front. While models have had some serious
issues resolving this upper pattern for the past several days now,
it appears there is at least some consistency between models that
Monday will not be as dry as we initially thought. The GFS/ECMWF
still indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be in
our southern areas. This has been the case all along so feel
comfortable raising POPs there a bit. Models differ on the amount of
moisture we have to work with and instability looks non existent so
POPS will remain low elsewhere and just showers mentioned.

The secondary impulse looks to come through on Tuesday and possibly
bring additional showers to the area. Right now, will go with just a
slight chance until we gain a better grasp on how these systems will
actually evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to better model agreement.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low centered over the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low that
will dive southeast and push a cold front across the region on
Wednesday. There should be just enough deep layer moisture to
produce small precipitation chances over the northeast half of the
CWA with the passage of these features. With just enough upper level
energy and moisture left over, small precipitation chances may
linger into Wednesday evening over the far eastern sections of our
CWA.

The upper low is forecast to drift slowly southeast through the
latter half of the week ending up over the mid Atlantic seaboard by
the end of the period. Rising H5 heights/ridging aloft in its wake
will bring temperatures back to above normal and keep the region dry
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection has finally moved into the region late this evening,
but it does not pose much of a threat to any of the terminals.
Will keep VCSH going at all but KPAH for the first few hours of
the forecast just to hint at the possibility. Guidance has backed
off on the fog forecast, so will only have MVFR level fog at all
sites. The signal is still there for MVFR ceilings in the late
morning through midday. Into the evening, as the surface low
pushes east of the area, and the main upper trough moves through,
there will be another chance of convection near KEVV and KOWB.
Decided to play it safe with VCSH there again.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010751
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
251 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Scattered convection continued overnight mainly over parts of
southern IL, southwest IN and southeast MO. At 07Z, the front,
although hard to find, looks like it is entering our western
counties attm per the latest observation at KPOF. The front
should continue to make slow eastward progress the rest of the
overnight hours and be bisecting our CWA by around 12Z. Lingering
showers and isolated storms will likely be around as this occurs
but there should be a downward trend.

While there will probably be a brief lull this morning in additional
development, the HRRR/RAP suggests redevelopment ahead of the
frontal boundary by later this morning and into the afternoon hours,
mainly across southern IL, southwest IN and west KY. SPC has
highlighted parts of southeast IL/southwest IN in a marginal risk
for severe weather due to a strengthening winds in the mid levels as
an upper level impulse from the central Plains moves eastward into
the Great Lakes region today into this evening. Therefore, some of
the storms that develop may be capable of producing some severe
hail/wind.

The aforementioned front and upper level impulse should move east of
the area overnight, ending chances for precipitation.

The first in a series of two upper level waves will be right on the
heels of the departing front. While models have had some serious
issues resolving this upper pattern for the past several days now,
it appears there is at least some consistency between models that
Monday will not be as dry as we initially thought. The GFS/ECMWF
still indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be in
our southern areas. This has been the case all along so feel
comfortable raising POPs there a bit. Models differ on the amount of
moisture we have to work with and instability looks non existent so
POPS will remain low elsewhere and just showers mentioned.

The secondary impulse looks to come through on Tuesday and possibly
bring additional showers to the area. Right now, will go with just a
slight chance until we gain a better grasp on how these systems will
actually evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to better model agreement.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low centered over the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low that
will dive southeast and push a cold front across the region on
Wednesday. There should be just enough deep layer moisture to
produce small precipitation chances over the northeast half of the
CWA with the passage of these features. With just enough upper level
energy and moisture left over, small precipitation chances may
linger into Wednesday evening over the far eastern sections of our
CWA.

The upper low is forecast to drift slowly southeast through the
latter half of the week ending up over the mid Atlantic seaboard by
the end of the period. Rising H5 heights/ridging aloft in its wake
will bring temperatures back to above normal and keep the region dry
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection has finally moved into the region late this evening,
but it does not pose much of a threat to any of the terminals.
Will keep VCSH going at all but KPAH for the first few hours of
the forecast just to hint at the possibility. Guidance has backed
off on the fog forecast, so will only have MVFR level fog at all
sites. The signal is still there for MVFR ceilings in the late
morning through midday. Into the evening, as the surface low
pushes east of the area, and the main upper trough moves through,
there will be another chance of convection near KEVV and KOWB.
Decided to play it safe with VCSH there again.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010455
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The passage of this morning`s wave and assoc convection coupled
with extensive high cloud cover continues to prevent new
convection from developing. 1 minute vis imagery shows thin areas
in the high clouds. So some warming into the lower 70s observed.
Best instability setting up across central into southern MO where
more sun is coupled with cooler temperatures aloft. The slight
risk area across MO/AR looks reasonable (from SEMO/SW IL
westward). Will monitor this area. Overnight after peak PoPs
through the evening, will taper off PoPs after midnight, focused
more across east sections. Sunday morning may see a lull, then
some midday and afternoon convective development possible. NAM
still most aggressive with Sunday activity and shows decent
instability for strong to possibly isold svr storms, best chance
over west KY.

Sunday night, a second lull. Then we bring in a chance of showers
across the area Monday with best chances southern sections as
energy and moisture push east across the region, diminishing
Monday night. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.
Model preference is a blend of the NAM and EC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

From earlier discussions, there continues to be some variability as
to the impact of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes shortwave
rotating south from the parent cyclonic circulation in the Hudson
Bay area of Canada. Some of the guidance incorporates enough
moisture to generate light precipitation Tuesday afternoon in the
cold air advection scheme.  However, blended guidance initialization,
along with weighting from the Canadian and ECMWF, suggest that this
feature should move through the WFO PAH forecast area dry. The
current forecast keeps this trend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave does appear to aid in the
sharpening of the Canadian low over the area by Wednesday, leading
to a small chance of showers mainly over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the WFO PAH forecast area.

Beyond that time, the western limb of the western U.S. ridge will
deflect most of the moisture and effective instability to the east
of the WFO PAH forecast area, limiting any chance of precipitation.

The main impact overall with these systems will be on temperatures
and dewpoints, as periodic intrusions of cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Convection has finally moved into the region late this evening,
but it does not pose much of a threat to any of the terminals.
Will keep VCSH going at all but KPAH for the first few hours of
the forecast just to hint at the possibility. Guidance has backed
off on the fog forecast, so will only have MVFR level fog at all
sites. The signal is still there for MVFR ceilings in the late
morning through midday. Into the evening, as the surface low
pushes east of the area, and the main upper trough moves through,
there will be another chance of convection near KEVV and KOWB.
Decided to play it safe with VCSH there again.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 302347
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
647 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The passage of this morning`s wave and assoc convection coupled
with extensive high cloud cover continues to prevent new
convection from developing. 1 minute vis imagery shows thin areas
in the high clouds. So some warming into the lower 70s observed.
Best instability setting up across central into southern MO where
more sun is coupled with cooler temperatures aloft. The slight
risk area across MO/AR looks reasonable (from SEMO/SW IL
westward). Will monitor this area. Overnight after peak PoPs
through the evening, will taper off PoPs after midnight, focused
more across east sections. Sunday morning may see a lull, then
some midday and afternoon convective development possible. NAM
still most aggressive with Sunday activity and shows decent
instability for strong to possibly isold svr storms, best chance
over west KY.

Sunday night, a second lull. Then we bring in a chance of showers
across the area Monday with best chances southern sections as
energy and moisture push east across the region, diminishing
Monday night. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.
Model preference is a blend of the NAM and EC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

From earlier discussions, there continues to be some variability as
to the impact of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes shortwave
rotating south from the parent cyclonic circulation in the Hudson
Bay area of Canada. Some of the guidance incorporates enough
moisture to generate light precipitation Tuesday afternoon in the
cold air advection scheme.  However, blended guidance initialization,
along with weighting from the Canadian and ECMWF, suggest that this
feature should move through the WFO PAH forecast area dry. The
current forecast keeps this trend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave does appear to aid in the
sharpening of the Canadian low over the area by Wednesday, leading
to a small chance of showers mainly over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the WFO PAH forecast area.

Beyond that time, the western limb of the western U.S. ridge will
deflect most of the moisture and effective instability to the east
of the WFO PAH forecast area, limiting any chance of precipitation.

The main impact overall with these systems will be on temperatures
and dewpoints, as periodic intrusions of cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

We will monitor the eastward progress of the line of showers and
thunderstorms over Missouri, but currently confidence is too low
in it holding together to mention TS at any terminal. That said,
some isolated shower activity in southeast Missouri may impact
KCGI this evening. Also left in a VCSH at KEVV through 06Z given
some very light showers in that area now, and the potential for
other development to move in later this evening.

Fog or low cloud development is likely at all sites overnight
into Sunday morning, as skies become mostly clear and winds nearly
calm. Took the forecasts down to IFR levels in fog at all sites,
but it may get worse where winds truly go calm. MVFR ceilings will
also be a concern from mid-morning into the afternoon, but this is
most likely in the east.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 302347
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
647 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The passage of this morning`s wave and assoc convection coupled
with extensive high cloud cover continues to prevent new
convection from developing. 1 minute vis imagery shows thin areas
in the high clouds. So some warming into the lower 70s observed.
Best instability setting up across central into southern MO where
more sun is coupled with cooler temperatures aloft. The slight
risk area across MO/AR looks reasonable (from SEMO/SW IL
westward). Will monitor this area. Overnight after peak PoPs
through the evening, will taper off PoPs after midnight, focused
more across east sections. Sunday morning may see a lull, then
some midday and afternoon convective development possible. NAM
still most aggressive with Sunday activity and shows decent
instability for strong to possibly isold svr storms, best chance
over west KY.

Sunday night, a second lull. Then we bring in a chance of showers
across the area Monday with best chances southern sections as
energy and moisture push east across the region, diminishing
Monday night. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.
Model preference is a blend of the NAM and EC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

From earlier discussions, there continues to be some variability as
to the impact of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes shortwave
rotating south from the parent cyclonic circulation in the Hudson
Bay area of Canada. Some of the guidance incorporates enough
moisture to generate light precipitation Tuesday afternoon in the
cold air advection scheme.  However, blended guidance initialization,
along with weighting from the Canadian and ECMWF, suggest that this
feature should move through the WFO PAH forecast area dry. The
current forecast keeps this trend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave does appear to aid in the
sharpening of the Canadian low over the area by Wednesday, leading
to a small chance of showers mainly over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the WFO PAH forecast area.

Beyond that time, the western limb of the western U.S. ridge will
deflect most of the moisture and effective instability to the east
of the WFO PAH forecast area, limiting any chance of precipitation.

The main impact overall with these systems will be on temperatures
and dewpoints, as periodic intrusions of cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

We will monitor the eastward progress of the line of showers and
thunderstorms over Missouri, but currently confidence is too low
in it holding together to mention TS at any terminal. That said,
some isolated shower activity in southeast Missouri may impact
KCGI this evening. Also left in a VCSH at KEVV through 06Z given
some very light showers in that area now, and the potential for
other development to move in later this evening.

Fog or low cloud development is likely at all sites overnight
into Sunday morning, as skies become mostly clear and winds nearly
calm. Took the forecasts down to IFR levels in fog at all sites,
but it may get worse where winds truly go calm. MVFR ceilings will
also be a concern from mid-morning into the afternoon, but this is
most likely in the east.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301914
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
214 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The passage of this morning`s wave and assoc convection coupled
with extensive high cloud cover continues to prevent new
convection from developing. 1 minute vis imagery shows thin areas
in the high clouds. So some warming into the lower 70s observed.
Best instability setting up across central into southern MO where
more sun is coupled with cooler temperatures aloft. The slight
risk area across MO/AR looks reasonable (from SEMO/SW IL
westward). Will monitor this area. Overnight after peak PoPs
through the evening, will taper off PoPs after midnight, focused
more across east sections. Sunday morning may see a lull, then
some midday and afternoon convective development possible. NAM
still most aggressive with Sunday activity and shows decent
instability for strong to possibly isold svr storms, best chance
over west KY.

Sunday night, a second lull. Then we bring in a chance of showers
across the area Monday with best chances southern sections as
energy and moisture push east across the region, diminishing
Monday night. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.
Model preference is a blend of the NAM and EC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

From earlier discussions, there continues to be some variability as
to the impact of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes shortwave
rotating south from the parent cyclonic circulation in the Hudson
Bay area of Canada. Some of the guidance incorporates enough
moisture to generate light precipitation Tuesday afternoon in the
cold air advection scheme.  However, blended guidance initialization,
along with weighting from the Canadian and ECMWF, suggest that this
feature should move through the WFO PAH forecast area dry. The
current forecast keeps this trend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave does appear to aid in the
sharpening of the Canadian low over the area by Wednesday, leading
to a small chance of showers mainly over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the WFO PAH forecast area.

Beyond that time, the western limb of the western U.S. ridge will
deflect most of the moisture and effective instability to the east
of the WFO PAH forecast area, limiting any chance of precipitation.

The main impact overall with these systems will be on temperatures
and dewpoints, as periodic intrusions of cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Somewhat low confidence TAF forecast. Abundant high cloud cover
with a wide range of cigs below, from IFR KEVV area to few to no
clouds just above MVFR thresholds elsewhere. As the warm front
continues to lift north, cigs should improve overall. Convective
redevelopment possible about anywhere, though more showery east of
a KAJG-KPAH line through mid afternoon. Overnight, VCTS for
thunder chance, diminishing after 06z with light SSE winds.
VFR/MVFR cig conditions will have to be monitored. It`s possible
cigs could be lower. Will monitor guidance for late tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301914
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
214 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The passage of this morning`s wave and assoc convection coupled
with extensive high cloud cover continues to prevent new
convection from developing. 1 minute vis imagery shows thin areas
in the high clouds. So some warming into the lower 70s observed.
Best instability setting up across central into southern MO where
more sun is coupled with cooler temperatures aloft. The slight
risk area across MO/AR looks reasonable (from SEMO/SW IL
westward). Will monitor this area. Overnight after peak PoPs
through the evening, will taper off PoPs after midnight, focused
more across east sections. Sunday morning may see a lull, then
some midday and afternoon convective development possible. NAM
still most aggressive with Sunday activity and shows decent
instability for strong to possibly isold svr storms, best chance
over west KY.

Sunday night, a second lull. Then we bring in a chance of showers
across the area Monday with best chances southern sections as
energy and moisture push east across the region, diminishing
Monday night. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.
Model preference is a blend of the NAM and EC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

From earlier discussions, there continues to be some variability as
to the impact of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes shortwave
rotating south from the parent cyclonic circulation in the Hudson
Bay area of Canada. Some of the guidance incorporates enough
moisture to generate light precipitation Tuesday afternoon in the
cold air advection scheme.  However, blended guidance initialization,
along with weighting from the Canadian and ECMWF, suggest that this
feature should move through the WFO PAH forecast area dry. The
current forecast keeps this trend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave does appear to aid in the
sharpening of the Canadian low over the area by Wednesday, leading
to a small chance of showers mainly over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the WFO PAH forecast area.

Beyond that time, the western limb of the western U.S. ridge will
deflect most of the moisture and effective instability to the east
of the WFO PAH forecast area, limiting any chance of precipitation.

The main impact overall with these systems will be on temperatures
and dewpoints, as periodic intrusions of cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Somewhat low confidence TAF forecast. Abundant high cloud cover
with a wide range of cigs below, from IFR KEVV area to few to no
clouds just above MVFR thresholds elsewhere. As the warm front
continues to lift north, cigs should improve overall. Convective
redevelopment possible about anywhere, though more showery east of
a KAJG-KPAH line through mid afternoon. Overnight, VCTS for
thunder chance, diminishing after 06z with light SSE winds.
VFR/MVFR cig conditions will have to be monitored. It`s possible
cigs could be lower. Will monitor guidance for late tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301715
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1215 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.

We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.

Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.

We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.

Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.

On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.

Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.

Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Somewhat low confidence TAF forecast. Abundant high cloud cover
with a wide range of cigs below, from IFR KEVV area to few to no
clouds just above MVFR thresholds elsewhere. As the warm front
continues to lift north, cigs should improve overall. Convective
redevelopment possible about anywhere, though more showery east of
a KAJG-KPAH line through mid afternoon. Overnight, VCTS for
thunder chance, diminishing after 06z with light SSE winds.
VFR/MVFR cig conditions will have to be monitored. It`s possible
cigs could be lower. Will monitor guidance for late tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301715
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1215 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.

We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.

Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.

We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.

Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.

On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.

Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.

Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Somewhat low confidence TAF forecast. Abundant high cloud cover
with a wide range of cigs below, from IFR KEVV area to few to no
clouds just above MVFR thresholds elsewhere. As the warm front
continues to lift north, cigs should improve overall. Convective
redevelopment possible about anywhere, though more showery east of
a KAJG-KPAH line through mid afternoon. Overnight, VCTS for
thunder chance, diminishing after 06z with light SSE winds.
VFR/MVFR cig conditions will have to be monitored. It`s possible
cigs could be lower. Will monitor guidance for late tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301127 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.

We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.

Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.

We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.

Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.

On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.

Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.

Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys and SHRA/TSRA this morning as a warm front
lifts across the area. VFR conditions through late afternoon, then
possibly MVFR vsbys with the re-development of showers and
thunderstorms after 00Z. Possible IFR cigs in the last six hours
of the period as low level moisture becomes trapped under a strong
nocturnal inversion.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301127 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.

We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.

Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.

We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.

Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.

On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.

Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.

Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys and SHRA/TSRA this morning as a warm front
lifts across the area. VFR conditions through late afternoon, then
possibly MVFR vsbys with the re-development of showers and
thunderstorms after 00Z. Possible IFR cigs in the last six hours
of the period as low level moisture becomes trapped under a strong
nocturnal inversion.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300757
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.

We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.

Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.

We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.

Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.

On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.

Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.

Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A large area of showers and most likely some embedded TS will move
northeast into the area overnight and will reach the northeast
TAFs by daybreak. A 4-6 hour window of MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions can be expected. Tried to time out the best period for
TS at all sites. Winds will be veering through midday and will end
up due south by midday as a warm front lifts to our north. Some
gustiness will be possible, but generally at or below 20kts.

Biggest uncertainty is in SHRA/TSRA development in the late
afternoon and evening. Plenty of instability should be available
if there is some focus for development. Thought a PROB30 for TS
was warranted, but this should be more scattered activity and the
impact will only be for an hour or so at any location.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300502
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1202 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An unsettled period is still forecast. An upper low will move out
of the central Rockies into the central Plains tonight. A warm
front extending ESE from low pressure over KS will lift north
toward the area tonight, continuing north through the area
Saturday. After an evening lull in convective activity as the
first round of showers/storms departs, expect an increase in
chances again overnight as the next wave moves toward the area.
Late night / early Saturday morning PoPs peaking at categorical,
should taper off by Saturday afternoon. Will continue with chance
to likely PoPs Saturday night with a surface front moving into the
area by 12z Sunday. Drier air starts to work in from the west
Sunday, so lower PoPs with time from west to east, best chances
Sunday west KY into southwest IN. Convective chances ending Sunday
night. Could be a few strong possibly severe storms this weekend.
Used a blend of the EC/GFS/NAM once again to level off each models
detail. Temps continue to be a blend of MOS and existing forecast
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models remain in some disagreement on some potential precipitation
chances early next week. GFS and Canadian show an upper level trof
moving across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio valleys on Tuesday,
while the ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with this feature.  Models
generate some light scattered QPF ahead of this trof, and despite
its slower solution, the latest ECMWF does somewhat agree with the
GFS that the best potential for some showers would be Monday night
into Tuesday.  Included just some small chances for this time period
in our south/southeast counties where some better moisture would be
available. Our far eastern counties could see a few showers
Wednesday as the trof moves through combined with some daytime
heating, so included some slight chances for showers.  Overall
confidence is pretty low for these precipitation chances, but with
whatever does occur, so far it looks like amounts would be
insignificant.

Confidence remain pretty low late in the week as the GFS swings a
cold front and some precipitation into the region by Friday, while
the ECMWF keeps any precip east of our region and builds high
pressure into the area. Opted to keep the rest of the extended dry
for now, and we will keep looking for the models to latch on to a
more coordinated solution.

Numerical guidance indicates temperatures will be fairly seasonal
for the new work week, with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s,
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A large area of showers and most likely some embedded TS will move
northeast into the area overnight and will reach the northeast
TAFs by daybreak. A 4-6 hour window of MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions can be expected. Tried to time out the best period for
TS at all sites. Winds will be veering through midday and will end
up due south by midday as a warm front lifts to our north. Some
gustiness will be possible, but generally at or below 20kts.

Biggest uncertainty is in SHRA/TSRA development in the late
afternoon and evening. Plenty of instability should be available
if there is some focus for development. Thought a PROB30 for TS
was warranted, but this should be more scattered activity and the
impact will only be for an hour or so at any location.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292349
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An unsettled period is still forecast. An upper low will move out
of the central Rockies into the central Plains tonight. A warm
front extending ESE from low pressure over KS will lift north
toward the area tonight, continuing north through the area
Saturday. After an evening lull in convective activity as the
first round of showers/storms departs, expect an increase in
chances again overnight as the next wave moves toward the area.
Late night / early Saturday morning PoPs peaking at categorical,
should taper off by Saturday afternoon. Will continue with chance
to likely PoPs Saturday night with a surface front moving into the
area by 12z Sunday. Drier air starts to work in from the west
Sunday, so lower PoPs with time from west to east, best chances
Sunday west KY into southwest IN. Convective chances ending Sunday
night. Could be a few strong possibly severe storms this weekend.
Used a blend of the EC/GFS/NAM once again to level off each models
detail. Temps continue to be a blend of MOS and existing forecast
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models remain in some disagreement on some potential precipitation
chances early next week. GFS and Canadian show an upper level trof
moving across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio valleys on Tuesday,
while the ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with this feature.  Models
generate some light scattered QPF ahead of this trof, and despite
its slower solution, the latest ECMWF does somewhat agree with the
GFS that the best potential for some showers would be Monday night
into Tuesday.  Included just some small chances for this time period
in our south/southeast counties where some better moisture would be
available. Our far eastern counties could see a few showers
Wednesday as the trof moves through combined with some daytime
heating, so included some slight chances for showers.  Overall
confidence is pretty low for these precipitation chances, but with
whatever does occur, so far it looks like amounts would be
insignificant.

Confidence remain pretty low late in the week as the GFS swings a
cold front and some precipitation into the region by Friday, while
the ECMWF keeps any precip east of our region and builds high
pressure into the area. Opted to keep the rest of the extended dry
for now, and we will keep looking for the models to latch on to a
more coordinated solution.

Numerical guidance indicates temperatures will be fairly seasonal
for the new work week, with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s,
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A band of mostly VFR showers will likely impact KCGI and KPAH in
the next few hours, and then push northeast to KEVV and KOWB. Once
this band of showers passes, it will be difficult to rule out
showers, if not thunderstorms, for the remainder of the period.
However, there is pretty high confidence in an area of SHRA/TSRA
moving northeast across the TAF sites from late tonight through
much of Saturday morning. IFR conditions seem likely with the
stronger convection. This will be accompanied by a warm frontal
passage, so winds will veer from east/southeast to south southwest.

Another round of more intense thunderstorms is possible
at the very end of this forecast period. Opted to leave it out for
now due to the lack of confidence in timing.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291930
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An unsettled period is still forecast. An upper low will move out
of the central Rockies into the central Plains tonight. A warm
front extending ESE from low pressure over KS will lift north
toward the area tonight, continuing north through the area
Saturday. After an evening lull in convective activity as the
first round of showers/storms departs, expect an increase in
chances again overnight as the next wave moves toward the area.
Late night / early Saturday morning PoPs peaking at categorical,
should taper off by Saturday afternoon. Will continue with chance
to likely PoPs Saturday night with a surface front moving into the
area by 12z Sunday. Drier air starts to work in from the west
Sunday, so lower PoPs with time from west to east, best chances
Sunday west KY into southwest IN. Convective chances ending Sunday
night. Could be a few strong possibly severe storms this weekend.
Used a blend of the EC/GFS/NAM once again to level off each models
detail. Temps continue to be a blend of MOS and existing forecast
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models remain in some disagreement on some potential precipitation
chances early next week. GFS and Canadian show an upper level trof
moving across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio valleys on Tuesday,
while the ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with this feature.  Models
generate some light scattered QPF ahead of this trof, and despite
its slower solution, the latest ECMWF does somewhat agree with the
GFS that the best potential for some showers would be Monday night
into Tuesday.  Included just some small chances for this time period
in our south/southeast counties where some better moisture would be
available. Our far eastern counties could see a few showers
Wednesday as the trof moves through combined with some daytime
heating, so included some slight chances for showers.  Overall
confidence is pretty low for these precipitation chances, but with
whatever does occur, so far it looks like amounts would be
insignificant.

Confidence remain pretty low late in the week as the GFS swings a
cold front and some precipitation into the region by Friday, while
the ECMWF keeps any precip east of our region and builds high
pressure into the area. Opted to keep the rest of the extended dry
for now, and we will keep looking for the models to latch on to a
more coordinated solution.

Numerical guidance indicates temperatures will be fairly seasonal
for the new work week, with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s,
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread showers and embedded storms expected south of a KCGI-
K2I0 line with some lighter rains just north. Expect mainly VFR
cigs, with tempo MVFR to briefly IFR vsbys with heavier showers
over SEMO into west KY. The back edge is making quick progress
east over southern MO, northern AR, thus will taper off chances by
late afternoon. Winds will remain east generally aob 10 kts.
Overnight, have an evening lull, then precip chances return
later, with MVFR conditions likely with showers. Winds will veer
more to the southeast, some gusts 15-20 kts possible into Saturday
morning. Thunder possible as well.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291739
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1239 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Grid updates complete. Lowered high temperatures. Based on radar,
categorical PoPs required srn 1/2 of the area, and faster than
what the inherited forecast was. Second, more northern precip area
over south central Missouri will track into SEMO, southern IL this
afternoon, so PoPs raised farther north as well. KEVV tri- state
still the last to get in on the precip, so kept PoPs lower there
for now. More updates probable, but at least this should take the
forecast in the right direction.

UPDATE Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will monitor closely temperature trends over the next hour. The
easterly trajectory along with a dense high canopy means we may
end up noticeably cooler than forecast. May have to raise PoPs to
categorical as well for the southern 1/3 of the area especially
just north of the TN/AR state lines. So by 1115 a.m. or so, we
should have a more complete update and hopefully a better handle
on near term trends. Thunder chance still in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pattern change is on the way, but not before we experience one
more pleasant weather day today as we close out the work week.
Filtered sunshine will help highs range through the 70s, and an 80
degree reading or two is not out of the question.

As a powerful jet rounds the base of the mean trof out West,
translating height falls to the southern Plains, Low pressure
develops/evolves and the teleconnected flow backs across the mid
Mississippi river valley. This will allow a surge of ample
moisture awaiting transport, and as the Low(s) move eastward out
of the Plains, they`ll shoot pieces of energy across their
attendant boundaries...resulting in several rounds of showers and
storm across the Quad State and surrounding areas for the weekend.
We`ll see 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts, on average, by the time it
all draws to an end Sunday night.

Despite the coming clouds/rain this weekend, we`ll still see
spring like Highs ranging in the 70s, with lows around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Confidence in the long term is fairly low given the challenging
evolution of the upper air pattern next week and the consistent
inconsistencies between models and model runs. The chaotic nature of
the upper air pattern is such that confidence will probably not
increase until this weekend system moves out.

For Monday through Tuesday, we will be watching how energy out west
behaves and whether or not enough moisture returns to give us a
chance for precipitation. The 12Z/00Z ECMWF is an outlier with
bringing precipitation into the area Monday night and Tuesday and it
was that way with last nights 00Z run as well. It is also much
quicker with another, stronger trough that was slated to move
through on Wednesday. The GFS and Canadian keep all precipitation
south of us for the first part of the week but are more consistent
with the timing of the Wednesday afternoon/early evening frontal
passage and subsequent precip chances, which are small.

Do not want to keep flip flopping the forecast for early this week,
as precipitation chances were already dropped. However,
collaboration issues will make a reintroduction of POPS necessary
for Monday night and Tuesday for the far southern areas, as the
ECMWF does not want to give up on the idea of rainfall across these
areas. They are just slight chances in the far southern counties.

As far as temperatures, we are looking for highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s. The only exception will be on Monday, were highs will
only in the upper 60s in the northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread showers and embedded storms expected south of a KCGI-
K2I0 line with some lighter rains just north. Expect mainly VFR
cigs, with tempo MVFR to briefly IFR vsbys with heavier showers
over SEMO into west KY. The back edge is making quick progress
east over southern MO, northern AR, thus will taper off chances by
late afternoon. Winds will remain east generally aob 10 kts.
Overnight, have an evening lull, then precip chances return
later, with MVFR conditions likely with showers. Winds will veer
more to the southeast, some gusts 15-20 kts possible into Saturday
morning. Thunder possible as well.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291550
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Grid updates complete. Lowered high temperatures. Based on radar,
categorical PoPs required srn 1/2 of the area, and faster than
what the inherited forecast was. Second, more northern precip area
over south central Missouri will track into SEMO, southern IL this
afternoon, so PoPs raised farther north as well. KEVV tri- state
still the last to get in on the precip, so kept PoPs lower there
for now. More updates probable, but at least this should take the
forecast in the right direction.

UPDATE Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will monitor closely temperature trends over the next hour. The
easterly trajectory along with a dense high canopy means we may
end up noticeably cooler than forecast. May have to raise PoPs to
categorical as well for the southern 1/3 of the area especially
just north of the TN/AR state lines. So by 1115 a.m. or so, we
should have a more complete update and hopefully a better handle
on near term trends. Thunder chance still in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pattern change is on the way, but not before we experience one
more pleasant weather day today as we close out the work week.
Filtered sunshine will help highs range through the 70s, and an 80
degree reading or two is not out of the question.

As a powerful jet rounds the base of the mean trof out West,
translating height falls to the southern Plains, Low pressure
develops/evolves and the teleconnected flow backs across the mid
Mississippi river valley. This will allow a surge of ample
moisture awaiting transport, and as the Low(s) move eastward out
of the Plains, they`ll shoot pieces of energy across their
attendant boundaries...resulting in several rounds of showers and
storm across the Quad State and surrounding areas for the weekend.
We`ll see 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts, on average, by the time it
all draws to an end Sunday night.

Despite the coming clouds/rain this weekend, we`ll still see
spring like Highs ranging in the 70s, with lows around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Confidence in the long term is fairly low given the challenging
evolution of the upper air pattern next week and the consistent
inconsistencies between models and model runs. The chaotic nature of
the upper air pattern is such that confidence will probably not
increase until this weekend system moves out.

For Monday through Tuesday, we will be watching how energy out west
behaves and whether or not enough moisture returns to give us a
chance for precipitation. The 12Z/00Z ECMWF is an outlier with
bringing precipitation into the area Monday night and Tuesday and it
was that way with last nights 00Z run as well. It is also much
quicker with another, stronger trough that was slated to move
through on Wednesday. The GFS and Canadian keep all precipitation
south of us for the first part of the week but are more consistent
with the timing of the Wednesday afternoon/early evening frontal
passage and subsequent precip chances, which are small.

Do not want to keep flip flopping the forecast for early this week,
as precipitation chances were already dropped. However,
collaboration issues will make a reintroduction of POPS necessary
for Monday night and Tuesday for the far southern areas, as the
ECMWF does not want to give up on the idea of rainfall across these
areas. They are just slight chances in the far southern counties.

As far as temperatures, we are looking for highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s. The only exception will be on Monday, were highs will
only in the upper 60s in the northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Clouds will slowly but surely increase, with bases lowering, with
time, as a storm system evolves out west and begins its approach
toward the Mississippi valley. By tonight, low end VFR cigs
accompanied by vicinity showers will likewise be on the increase,
with further deterioration of flight conditions, including
restricted CIGS/VSBYS, anticipated heading into tmrw/the next
forecast issuance.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291550
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Grid updates complete. Lowered high temperatures. Based on radar,
categorical PoPs required srn 1/2 of the area, and faster than
what the inherited forecast was. Second, more northern precip area
over south central Missouri will track into SEMO, southern IL this
afternoon, so PoPs raised farther north as well. KEVV tri- state
still the last to get in on the precip, so kept PoPs lower there
for now. More updates probable, but at least this should take the
forecast in the right direction.

UPDATE Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will monitor closely temperature trends over the next hour. The
easterly trajectory along with a dense high canopy means we may
end up noticeably cooler than forecast. May have to raise PoPs to
categorical as well for the southern 1/3 of the area especially
just north of the TN/AR state lines. So by 1115 a.m. or so, we
should have a more complete update and hopefully a better handle
on near term trends. Thunder chance still in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pattern change is on the way, but not before we experience one
more pleasant weather day today as we close out the work week.
Filtered sunshine will help highs range through the 70s, and an 80
degree reading or two is not out of the question.

As a powerful jet rounds the base of the mean trof out West,
translating height falls to the southern Plains, Low pressure
develops/evolves and the teleconnected flow backs across the mid
Mississippi river valley. This will allow a surge of ample
moisture awaiting transport, and as the Low(s) move eastward out
of the Plains, they`ll shoot pieces of energy across their
attendant boundaries...resulting in several rounds of showers and
storm across the Quad State and surrounding areas for the weekend.
We`ll see 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts, on average, by the time it
all draws to an end Sunday night.

Despite the coming clouds/rain this weekend, we`ll still see
spring like Highs ranging in the 70s, with lows around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Confidence in the long term is fairly low given the challenging
evolution of the upper air pattern next week and the consistent
inconsistencies between models and model runs. The chaotic nature of
the upper air pattern is such that confidence will probably not
increase until this weekend system moves out.

For Monday through Tuesday, we will be watching how energy out west
behaves and whether or not enough moisture returns to give us a
chance for precipitation. The 12Z/00Z ECMWF is an outlier with
bringing precipitation into the area Monday night and Tuesday and it
was that way with last nights 00Z run as well. It is also much
quicker with another, stronger trough that was slated to move
through on Wednesday. The GFS and Canadian keep all precipitation
south of us for the first part of the week but are more consistent
with the timing of the Wednesday afternoon/early evening frontal
passage and subsequent precip chances, which are small.

Do not want to keep flip flopping the forecast for early this week,
as precipitation chances were already dropped. However,
collaboration issues will make a reintroduction of POPS necessary
for Monday night and Tuesday for the far southern areas, as the
ECMWF does not want to give up on the idea of rainfall across these
areas. They are just slight chances in the far southern counties.

As far as temperatures, we are looking for highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s. The only exception will be on Monday, were highs will
only in the upper 60s in the northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Clouds will slowly but surely increase, with bases lowering, with
time, as a storm system evolves out west and begins its approach
toward the Mississippi valley. By tonight, low end VFR cigs
accompanied by vicinity showers will likewise be on the increase,
with further deterioration of flight conditions, including
restricted CIGS/VSBYS, anticipated heading into tmrw/the next
forecast issuance.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291507
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1007 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will monitor closely temperature trends over the next hour. The
easterly trajectory along with a dense high canopy means we may
end up noticeably cooler than forecast. May have to raise PoPs to
categorical as well for the southern 1/3 of the area especially
just north of the TN/AR state lines. So by 1115 a.m. or so, we
should have a more complete update and hopefully a better handle
on near term trends. Thunder chance still in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pattern change is on the way, but not before we experience one
more pleasant weather day today as we close out the work week.
Filtered sunshine will help highs range through the 70s, and an 80
degree reading or two is not out of the question.

As a powerful jet rounds the base of the mean trof out West,
translating height falls to the southern Plains, Low pressure
develops/evolves and the teleconnected flow backs across the mid
Mississippi river valley. This will allow a surge of ample
moisture awaiting transport, and as the Low(s) move eastward out
of the Plains, they`ll shoot pieces of energy across their
attendant boundaries...resulting in several rounds of showers and
storm across the Quad State and surrounding areas for the weekend.
We`ll see 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts, on average, by the time it
all draws to an end Sunday night.

Despite the coming clouds/rain this weekend, we`ll still see
spring like Highs ranging in the 70s, with lows around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Confidence in the long term is fairly low given the challenging
evolution of the upper air pattern next week and the consistent
inconsistencies between models and model runs. The chaotic nature of
the upper air pattern is such that confidence will probably not
increase until this weekend system moves out.

For Monday through Tuesday, we will be watching how energy out west
behaves and whether or not enough moisture returns to give us a
chance for precipitation. The 12Z/00Z ECMWF is an outlier with
bringing precipitation into the area Monday night and Tuesday and it
was that way with last nights 00Z run as well. It is also much
quicker with another, stronger trough that was slated to move
through on Wednesday. The GFS and Canadian keep all precipitation
south of us for the first part of the week but are more consistent
with the timing of the Wednesday afternoon/early evening frontal
passage and subsequent precip chances, which are small.

Do not want to keep flip flopping the forecast for early this week,
as precipitation chances were already dropped. However,
collaboration issues will make a reintroduction of POPS necessary
for Monday night and Tuesday for the far southern areas, as the
ECMWF does not want to give up on the idea of rainfall across these
areas. They are just slight chances in the far southern counties.

As far as temperatures, we are looking for highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s. The only exception will be on Monday, were highs will
only in the upper 60s in the northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Clouds will slowly but surely increase, with bases lowering, with
time, as a storm system evolves out west and begins its approach
toward the Mississippi valley. By tonight, low end VFR cigs
accompanied by vicinity showers will likewise be on the increase,
with further deterioration of flight conditions, including
restricted CIGS/VSBYS, anticipated heading into tmrw/the next
forecast issuance.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$





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