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FXUS63 KPAH 232333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

An upper level ridge remains across the area extending from the
Great Lakes south to the lower MS valley. High clouds continue to
push in slowly from the west as the moisture encounters the ridge.
Weak return flow trying to set up west of high pressure to our
east. In the short term, will focus on a mid trop weakness moving
into west MO/AR. The models bring this feature east and eventually
over the CWFA by 12z Tue. Will continue with our introduction of
low chance PoPs SEMO after midnight. Tuesday, as the weak s/wv
aloft moves across the area, will carry low chance PoPs for

GFS and NAM diverge Tuesday night, with the GFS showing greater
s/wv ridging in the wake of the aforementioned system. Meanwhile
the NAM keeps the flow flat with another weak disturbance moving
across. Will go with small chance PoPs as a result given lower
confidence. The ECMWF is more like the GFS, more conservative with

Slightly better PoPs Wednesday following the NAM/ECMWF, as both
show the next weak s/wv moving across the area. GFS doesn`t show
all that much. PoPs lower Wednesday night in the wake of the
Wednesday s/wv. Cannot rule out a strong, isolated severe storms
Wednesday mainly SEMO, southern IL. Mid level lapse rates are
adequate. However low trop thermal profile in question, along with
marginal wind fields.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A stagnant upper-level flow pattern will keep rather warm and
unsettled conditions over our region through the Memorial Day
weekend. Persistent 500 mb ridging over the eastern states and a
longwave trough over the far western states will result in moist
southwest flow across the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

As far as the timing of the rain chances, there is not enough
continuity among the models to help with that. The timing of
individual shortwaves moving northeast across the central USA
varies from model to model. These impulses should be rather weak,
and at this longer time range the models are unlikely to resolve
small scale features. One thing the models do agree on is that
deep moisture will be available for the impulses to tap into. In
short, this looks like a typical late spring or early summer
pattern, where mesoscale boundaries and mcv`s play a significant
role in qpf placement.

Until a more specific focusing mechanism for precip can be
identified, generic 30 to 50 percent pops will continue every day
in the long term. There is a slightly stronger model signal for
precip Thursday into Friday, when a larger scale 500 mb shortwave
emerges from the Rockies into the central Plains. This shortwave
may move slowly enough to keep higher pops into Saturday as well.
Beyond that, pops will be a little lower for Sunday into Memorial

Daytime highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s each day
based on anticipated cloud cover. On any given day, a slow-moving
mcs would keep temps lower than 80, and a day with considerable
sun would result in upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.


Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. As a skinny upper-level
ridge that is currently overhead moves slowly east through the
period, chances of showers will increase from the west late
tonight through Tuesday. At this time, it appears that any
convection that reaches the area Tuesday will be weakening, and
should have little impact even at KCGI and KPAH.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



FXUS63 KPAH 230735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
235 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite shows high clouds to our west. They are so close, yet so
far away. To explain, they are just west of an upper level ridge
that arcs across the Mississippi river valley. We`ll eventually
see these clouds start to spill into/across our CWA, as surface
high pressure shifts from the Mississippi valley, today, eastward
tonight. The clouds start to spill overtop the flattening ridge
then, so we`ll see more cloudiness Tuesday than today (Monday).

With the clouds, comes moisture at high levels, but also, working
down the column. This will be moreso on Tuesday, as the surface
High has finally shifted eastward, and allowed low level
southerlys to start to pump increasing lower trop moisture into
the area. This will also take smallish pcpn chances slowly upward
as well.

At this writing, it looks like said pcpn chances will peak (in the
short term) Tue night into Wed, as the ridge flattens out,
southerlies deepen, and pieces of upper energy begin to shoot out
of the deepened swly flow aloft, overtop the flattened ridge and
across our area/northward. The end result will be slgt chance
(20s) to low chance (30s) Pops Monday night-Tuesday, gradually
increasing to high chance (50s) by Wednesay.

Daytime highs will be in the lower 80s, and upper 50s lows tonight
will nudge upward into/thru the 60s for the ensuing nights.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Hate to sound like a broken record yet again but unfortunately, we
will continue to see chance type (scattered) POPs throughout the
extended period. Therefore, there will be only a few changes made in
the long term after looking at the latest data. We will have
unsettled southwesterly flow at 500mb that will persist while we
retain a very warm and humid atmosphere.

Periodic chances for showers and storms will remain through the week
and into the weekend. Thankfully, it will not be raining the entire
time and unless we can lock onto a specific feature aloft, the
greater chances for convection will be during the daytime/early
evening (i.e. diurnally driven). In the same vein, there is not
real high confidence in when and where the activity will be given
the lack of any sfc features as well as any noteable disturbances
aloft to hang your hat on.

Will follow suit with previous shift and not get fancy with the POPs
since it`s too early to be able to say which part of the CWA has
a better chance of seeing rain than the other. However, with that
being said, there does seem to be a bit more consistency regarding
a shortwave trough that will move from the four corners region
into the central Plains Thursday into Friday. After watching this
feature for the past few days, feel more confident to raise POPs
Thursday night into Friday.

Due to the degree of moisture we are dealing with, heavy rain
could be an issue at times but should be localized. As far as
temperatures, they will be slightly above normal with a bit more
uncomfortable humidity levels, with dewpoints in the mid to upper


Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

High clouds to our west will gradually invade and overspread the
terminals during the forecast period...as high pressure slowly
shifts eastward. That will also allow a return southerly fetch to
develop toward the end of the forecast, during the planning period


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



FXUS63 KPAH 222346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
645 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure sliding east across the region will give us dry
conditions and winds shifting to the south. The warm up will
continue Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s. Lows
tonight and Monday night will be in the middle 50s to around 60
degrees, and Tuesday night in the lower to middle 60s.

Models show an upper level wave moving across the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. GFS/Canadian bring some precip into our far
west/northwest counties as early as 12z Tuesday, while the ECMWF
is a bit slower. ECMWF/Canadian keep precip light and scattered
at best through 12z Wednesday, while GFS shows more significant
QPF. Prefer the less aggressive ECMWF/Canadian solutions. Went
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms in our far west
counties Monday night, with scattered showers and storms slowly
spreading east Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Few changes to the long term. Unsettled SW H5 flow will persist
while we remain warm sector. This will result in on and off chances
of convection through the period. Confidence in timing and coverage
are still in question given the lack of a frontal presence, and lack
of significant features aloft. Plenty of moisture means any storms
could produce locally heavy rain, perhaps locally gusty winds. You
will see several periods in the forecast with a 40-50 percent chance
of rain. However it will not rain the entire time. There will be
breaks. Otherwise warmer than normal temperatures with more summer
like humidity. Continue to favor a MOS/Ensemble MOS blend for


Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with clear
skies and light winds. The northerly flow of the past few days will
be replaced by southeasterly winds Monday as high pressure begins to
shift east of the area.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



FXUS63 KPAH 212332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Low pressure off to our east will continue to move east the rest
of the weekend, which will allow high pressure to build over the
middle Mississippi Valley. This will give our region dry weather
and lowering humidity levels. Models show the surface high moving
over the PAH forecast area by late Sunday, and east of our region
by Monday. Despite the continued northerly winds on Sunday, plenty
of sunshine will help temperatures moderate to near seasonal
readings in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. With the high to
our east Monday, winds will shift to the south, and high
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer. Overnight lows
tonight and Sunday night will remain a little below seasonal
normals with readings in the lower to middle 50s, but south winds
Monday will give us readings in the upper 50s to around 60

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Rather straight forward approach for the long term. Ops models and
their ensembles show a general SW H5 flow across the area through
the 4-7 day period. We followed MOS/Ensemble MOS PoPs vs. the Blends
(too high). The lower values make more sense, given the lack of a
frontal focus through the period (we stay warm sector), and with a
lack of significant mid trop support. Only minor perturbations seen
in the broad SW flow aloft. Net result, there is a daily chance of
convection. But confidence in coverage/timing that far out in time
is not well accounted for in the blends. Temperatures will be at or
above normal with more humid conditions. Given the forecast of
modest instability and marginal overall flow, the probability of
strong to severe convection seems rather low. Better chances stay to
our west.


Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. A period of
scattered to broken cirrus will pass through this evening, with a
trend to towards mostly clear conditions thereafter. Winds will be
light and variable.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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