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000
FXUS63 KPAH 271953
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain begin to shift
slowly eastward on Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary just to the north of our CWA
should begin to dissipate with the setting of the sun or shortly
thereafter.

The frontal boundary is forecast to sag slowly southwestward
overnight into our CWA and be bisecting our area from NW-SE by 12Z
(7 AM) Thursday, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front
during the day. In the process, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the northeastern two thirds of our CWA and
continue into the evening hours.

On Friday we will be in the warm sector but widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the far northeast sections
where capping will be weakest, and over the far western sections
with the approach of a weather system developing over the central
plains. As this system draws closer to our CWA Friday night,
precipitation chances will increase from the west.

Right now the thinking is to NOT extend the Heat Advisory past 7 PM
this evening. The heat Index may reach 100 degrees in a couple of
spots Thursday afternoon, but not widespread enough to continue with
the advisory. If later guidance comes in with temperatures and/or
dew points a tad higher, a new advisory may become necessary. Alot
is going to depend on cloud cover Thursday and any convection that
develops.

Beyond Thursday the combination of cloud cover and precipitation
should keep heat indices below 100 degrees, but not that far. Even
though heat indices (widespread) are not expected to reach advisory
criteria beyond today, persons across the lower Ohio valley still
need to take all of the necessary precautions to protect themselves
from high heat and humidity over the upcoming holiday weekend and
through at least the middle of next week as temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period
along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The beginning of the extended portion of this forecast package will
start with a shortwave moving through the western sections of the
WFO PAH forecast area in a sharp southwest to northeast flow at the
surface and aloft.

The gradient(or change)across the WFO PAH forecast area will remain
sharp, but become more west-southwest through the weekend and into
early next week as an upper level low in norther Minnesota pinwheels
a series of shortwaves over the area.

Th flow becomes more zonal and weaker as the aforementioned upper
low in MN shifts eastward and a broad west to east upper ridge
translates slowly north from the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains.

Most of the extended period, except for next Wednesday (when the
ridge builds in the from south) will see intermittent chances for
showers and thunderstorms as each shortwave glances the region.
Given fairly rapid changes in the upper flow during this time
period, there will be some forecast variability in the timing of the
showers and thunderstorms. Mesoscale influences may impact the onset
and dissipation of thunderstorm activity, making medium range
assessments of occurrence somewhat inconsistent at this time.

Temperatures are expected to hold within one to three degrees of
normal for this time of year during the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A weak cold front will try to push into the area today. Isolated
to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible along
and behind the front. The expected coverage is too low to mention
at this time.

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.

An area of MVFR clouds currently behind the front over northern
Indiana and northeast Illinois may impact KEVV and KOWB late
tonight. For now will just have a scattered deck, but some
guidance hints at the possibility of ceilings. Of course if the
ceilings develop, fog will not be an issue, but MVFR conditions
will still impact the terminals.

Light and variable winds will go calm by sundown, then pick up out
of the east to southeast AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271953
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain begin to shift
slowly eastward on Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary just to the north of our CWA
should begin to dissipate with the setting of the sun or shortly
thereafter.

The frontal boundary is forecast to sag slowly southwestward
overnight into our CWA and be bisecting our area from NW-SE by 12Z
(7 AM) Thursday, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front
during the day. In the process, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the northeastern two thirds of our CWA and
continue into the evening hours.

On Friday we will be in the warm sector but widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the far northeast sections
where capping will be weakest, and over the far western sections
with the approach of a weather system developing over the central
plains. As this system draws closer to our CWA Friday night,
precipitation chances will increase from the west.

Right now the thinking is to NOT extend the Heat Advisory past 7 PM
this evening. The heat Index may reach 100 degrees in a couple of
spots Thursday afternoon, but not widespread enough to continue with
the advisory. If later guidance comes in with temperatures and/or
dew points a tad higher, a new advisory may become necessary. Alot
is going to depend on cloud cover Thursday and any convection that
develops.

Beyond Thursday the combination of cloud cover and precipitation
should keep heat indices below 100 degrees, but not that far. Even
though heat indices (widespread) are not expected to reach advisory
criteria beyond today, persons across the lower Ohio valley still
need to take all of the necessary precautions to protect themselves
from high heat and humidity over the upcoming holiday weekend and
through at least the middle of next week as temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period
along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The beginning of the extended portion of this forecast package will
start with a shortwave moving through the western sections of the
WFO PAH forecast area in a sharp southwest to northeast flow at the
surface and aloft.

The gradient(or change)across the WFO PAH forecast area will remain
sharp, but become more west-southwest through the weekend and into
early next week as an upper level low in norther Minnesota pinwheels
a series of shortwaves over the area.

Th flow becomes more zonal and weaker as the aforementioned upper
low in MN shifts eastward and a broad west to east upper ridge
translates slowly north from the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains.

Most of the extended period, except for next Wednesday (when the
ridge builds in the from south) will see intermittent chances for
showers and thunderstorms as each shortwave glances the region.
Given fairly rapid changes in the upper flow during this time
period, there will be some forecast variability in the timing of the
showers and thunderstorms. Mesoscale influences may impact the onset
and dissipation of thunderstorm activity, making medium range
assessments of occurrence somewhat inconsistent at this time.

Temperatures are expected to hold within one to three degrees of
normal for this time of year during the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A weak cold front will try to push into the area today. Isolated
to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible along
and behind the front. The expected coverage is too low to mention
at this time.

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.

An area of MVFR clouds currently behind the front over northern
Indiana and northeast Illinois may impact KEVV and KOWB late
tonight. For now will just have a scattered deck, but some
guidance hints at the possibility of ceilings. Of course if the
ceilings develop, fog will not be an issue, but MVFR conditions
will still impact the terminals.

Light and variable winds will go calm by sundown, then pick up out
of the east to southeast AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271725 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The Heat Advisory looks good for today. Yesterday we once again
underestimated the temperatures and especially the dewpoints. Went
with the highest dewpoints I could find in the available guidance
and increased them just a bit through the day. Also, went a degree
or so above the consensus of guidance for highs this afternoon. It
all boils down to 100-105 in most locations, which will satisfy
the 4+ day criteria for Heat Advisory issuance.

Convection today is supposed to be focused along a weak back-door
cold front that has been forecast to enter the area from the north
this afternoon. The boundary has become harder and harder to find
in the model wind fields and the model QPF has become less
coherent over the last day or so.

The front appears to be located along the Iowa/Missouri border and
eastward through Illinois into northern Indiana as of 0730Z. Short
term guidance brings it down near Highway 13 by late this afternoon.
Will focus low chance PoPs along and north of the Shawnee Hills in
southern Illinois, and eastward through northwest Kentucky and
southwest Indiana. Could also see some isolated to widely
scattered convection in the higher terrain in southeast Missouri.
Figure that the convection will be diurnally based, so would not
expect anything past sunset.

Thursday will be an interesting day across the area. The front is
likely to become stationary from southern Illinois into west
Kentucky early Thursday, but it will likely become even more
diffuse through the day. Would expect moisture to pool in the
vicinity of the boundary, and scattered afternoon convection seems
reasonable with the greatest coverage expected across southern
Illinois.

In the absence of convection or convective debris, temperatures
are likely to climb well into the 90s on Thursday. Figure most
areas will achieve most of their potential warming prior to the
onset of convection, so with dewpoints likely to remain well into
the 70s through the day, heat indices may climb above 100 degrees
once again, especially over west Kentucky and the Missouri Boot-
heel. However, given the uncertainties in the convective forecast,
it is too difficult to determine how much of the area may need a
continuation of the Heat Advisory.

The 00Z models are not sure what they want to do with convection
for Thursday night. Would not be at all surprised to see some at
least isolated convection bounce around areas mainly east of the
Mississippi River through the night, with some weak warm advection
possible in the low-levels.

For Friday, the 00Z NAM is too fast with the arrival of the storm
system moving in from the west. The ECMWF and GFS are in agreement
in keeping any impacts from this system to the west of the area
through Friday. They push whatever is left of the boundary back
to the northeast early Friday, and re-establish the warm sector
over the entire region. Along with this evolution, modest south
southwest low-level flow may finally bring in or mix down drier
air. With plenty of sunshine expected for much of the day,
temperatures will likely climb well into the 90s or well above
guidance. Thankfully, with the dewpoints mixing into the 60s
areawide, heat indices should stay under 100 for the first time in
the last 10 days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Forecast models remain in fairly good agreement in forecasting the
northeastward progression of a mid level shortwave trough from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend. With the
exception of the NAM, most models keep the bulk of the precipitation
west of the immediate forecast area through Friday evening.

Thereafter, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase Saturday into Saturday night. Not confident as to how
much precipitation will actually be around on Saturday, as multiple
models now indicate the brunt of the initial wave will be deflected
just north of the region. The better chance will likely arrive
Saturday night into Sunday morning as another piece of energy heads
northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main
concern during this time will be locally heavy rain with deep
unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water values in the
vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of abundant clouds and scattered precipitation will
likely keep a lid on daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are
forecast over the weekend. It will remain quite humid though with
lows each morning in the lower 70s. Precipitation chances will
decrease Sunday night through Monday night, but not entirely given
the very warm and humid conditions in place. Temperatures by Monday
and especially Tuesday will be in the neighborhood of the 90 degree
mark once again. Our next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday with
the approach of a cold front--the details of which are sketchy at
this point given poor model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A weak cold front will try to push into the area today. Isolated
to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible along
and behind the front. The expected coverage is too low to mention
at this time.

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.

An area of MVFR clouds currently behind the front over northern
Indiana and northeast Illinois may impact KEVV and KOWB late
tonight. For now will just have a scattered deck, but some
guidance hints at the possibility of ceilings. Of course if the
ceilings develop, fog will not be an issue, but MVFR conditions
will still impact the terminals.

Light and variable winds will go calm by sundown, then pick up out
of the east to southeast AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271725 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The Heat Advisory looks good for today. Yesterday we once again
underestimated the temperatures and especially the dewpoints. Went
with the highest dewpoints I could find in the available guidance
and increased them just a bit through the day. Also, went a degree
or so above the consensus of guidance for highs this afternoon. It
all boils down to 100-105 in most locations, which will satisfy
the 4+ day criteria for Heat Advisory issuance.

Convection today is supposed to be focused along a weak back-door
cold front that has been forecast to enter the area from the north
this afternoon. The boundary has become harder and harder to find
in the model wind fields and the model QPF has become less
coherent over the last day or so.

The front appears to be located along the Iowa/Missouri border and
eastward through Illinois into northern Indiana as of 0730Z. Short
term guidance brings it down near Highway 13 by late this afternoon.
Will focus low chance PoPs along and north of the Shawnee Hills in
southern Illinois, and eastward through northwest Kentucky and
southwest Indiana. Could also see some isolated to widely
scattered convection in the higher terrain in southeast Missouri.
Figure that the convection will be diurnally based, so would not
expect anything past sunset.

Thursday will be an interesting day across the area. The front is
likely to become stationary from southern Illinois into west
Kentucky early Thursday, but it will likely become even more
diffuse through the day. Would expect moisture to pool in the
vicinity of the boundary, and scattered afternoon convection seems
reasonable with the greatest coverage expected across southern
Illinois.

In the absence of convection or convective debris, temperatures
are likely to climb well into the 90s on Thursday. Figure most
areas will achieve most of their potential warming prior to the
onset of convection, so with dewpoints likely to remain well into
the 70s through the day, heat indices may climb above 100 degrees
once again, especially over west Kentucky and the Missouri Boot-
heel. However, given the uncertainties in the convective forecast,
it is too difficult to determine how much of the area may need a
continuation of the Heat Advisory.

The 00Z models are not sure what they want to do with convection
for Thursday night. Would not be at all surprised to see some at
least isolated convection bounce around areas mainly east of the
Mississippi River through the night, with some weak warm advection
possible in the low-levels.

For Friday, the 00Z NAM is too fast with the arrival of the storm
system moving in from the west. The ECMWF and GFS are in agreement
in keeping any impacts from this system to the west of the area
through Friday. They push whatever is left of the boundary back
to the northeast early Friday, and re-establish the warm sector
over the entire region. Along with this evolution, modest south
southwest low-level flow may finally bring in or mix down drier
air. With plenty of sunshine expected for much of the day,
temperatures will likely climb well into the 90s or well above
guidance. Thankfully, with the dewpoints mixing into the 60s
areawide, heat indices should stay under 100 for the first time in
the last 10 days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Forecast models remain in fairly good agreement in forecasting the
northeastward progression of a mid level shortwave trough from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend. With the
exception of the NAM, most models keep the bulk of the precipitation
west of the immediate forecast area through Friday evening.

Thereafter, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase Saturday into Saturday night. Not confident as to how
much precipitation will actually be around on Saturday, as multiple
models now indicate the brunt of the initial wave will be deflected
just north of the region. The better chance will likely arrive
Saturday night into Sunday morning as another piece of energy heads
northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main
concern during this time will be locally heavy rain with deep
unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water values in the
vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of abundant clouds and scattered precipitation will
likely keep a lid on daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are
forecast over the weekend. It will remain quite humid though with
lows each morning in the lower 70s. Precipitation chances will
decrease Sunday night through Monday night, but not entirely given
the very warm and humid conditions in place. Temperatures by Monday
and especially Tuesday will be in the neighborhood of the 90 degree
mark once again. Our next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday with
the approach of a cold front--the details of which are sketchy at
this point given poor model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A weak cold front will try to push into the area today. Isolated
to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible along
and behind the front. The expected coverage is too low to mention
at this time.

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.

An area of MVFR clouds currently behind the front over northern
Indiana and northeast Illinois may impact KEVV and KOWB late
tonight. For now will just have a scattered deck, but some
guidance hints at the possibility of ceilings. Of course if the
ceilings develop, fog will not be an issue, but MVFR conditions
will still impact the terminals.

Light and variable winds will go calm by sundown, then pick up out
of the east to southeast AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The Heat Advisory looks good for today. Yesterday we once again
underestimated the temperatures and especially the dewpoints. Went
with the highest dewpoints I could find in the available guidance
and increased them just a bit through the day. Also, went a degree
or so above the consensus of guidance for highs this afternoon. It
all boils down to 100-105 in most locations, which will satisfy
the 4+ day criteria for Heat Advisory issuance.

Convection today is supposed to be focused along a weak back-door
cold front that has been forecast to enter the area from the north
this afternoon. The boundary has become harder and harder to find
in the model wind fields and the model QPF has become less
coherent over the last day or so.

The front appears to be located along the Iowa/Missouri border and
eastward through Illinois into northern Indiana as of 0730Z. Short
term guidance brings it down near Highway 13 by late this afternoon.
Will focus low chance PoPs along and north of the Shawnee Hills in
southern Illinois, and eastward through northwest Kentucky and
southwest Indiana. Could also see some isolated to widely
scattered convection in the higher terrain in southeast Missouri.
Figure that the convection will be diurnally based, so would not
expect anything past sunset.

Thursday will be an interesting day across the area. The front is
likely to become stationary from southern Illinois into west
Kentucky early Thursday, but it will likely become even more
diffuse through the day. Would expect moisture to pool in the
vicinity of the boundary, and scattered afternoon convection seems
reasonable with the greatest coverage expected across southern
Illinois.

In the absence of convection or convective debris, temperatures
are likely to climb well into the 90s on Thursday. Figure most
areas will achieve most of their potential warming prior to the
onset of convection, so with dewpoints likely to remain well into
the 70s through the day, heat indices may climb above 100 degrees
once again, especially over west Kentucky and the Missouri Boot-
heel. However, given the uncertainties in the convective forecast,
it is too difficult to determine how much of the area may need a
continuation of the Heat Advisory.

The 00Z models are not sure what they want to do with convection
for Thursday night. Would not be at all surprised to see some at
least isolated convection bounce around areas mainly east of the
Mississippi River through the night, with some weak warm advection
possible in the low-levels.

For Friday, the 00Z NAM is too fast with the arrival of the storm
system moving in from the west. The ECMWF and GFS are in agreement
in keeping any impacts from this system to the west of the area
through Friday. They push whatever is left of the boundary back
to the northeast early Friday, and re-establish the warm sector
over the entire region. Along with this evolution, modest south
southwest low-level flow may finally bring in or mix down drier
air. With plenty of sunshine expected for much of the day,
temperatures will likely climb well into the 90s or well above
guidance. Thankfully, with the dewpoints mixing into the 60s
areawide, heat indices should stay under 100 for the first time in
the last 10 days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Forecast models remain in fairly good agreement in forecasting the
northeastward progression of a mid level shortwave trough from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend. With the
exception of the NAM, most models keep the bulk of the precipitation
west of the immediate forecast area through Friday evening.

Thereafter, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase Saturday into Saturday night. Not confident as to how
much precipitation will actually be around on Saturday, as multiple
models now indicate the brunt of the initial wave will be deflected
just north of the region. The better chance will likely arrive
Saturday night into Sunday morning as another piece of energy heads
northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main
concern during this time will be locally heavy rain with deep
unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water values in the
vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of abundant clouds and scattered precipitation will
likely keep a lid on daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are
forecast over the weekend. It will remain quite humid though with
lows each morning in the lower 70s. Precipitation chances will
decrease Sunday night through Monday night, but not entirely given
the very warm and humid conditions in place. Temperatures by Monday
and especially Tuesday will be in the neighborhood of the 90 degree
mark once again. Our next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday with
the approach of a cold front--the details of which are sketchy at
this point given poor model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A weak cold front will try to push into the area today. It appears
that by midday, light winds will be out of the north at KEVV and
KOWB, in comparison to the persisent light northeast winds farther
south and west. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible along and behind the front. The expected coverage
is too low to mention explicitly at KEVV and KOWB at this time.

Dense fog has developed this morning at KCGI, and MVFR conditions
have been reported at the other sites. All of the fog should burn
off in the first 2 hours of the forecast. IFR or lower conditions
are likely to develop again late tonight at KCGI and KPAH, but
MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.

An area of MVFR clouds currently behind the front over northern
Indiana and northeast Illinois may impact KEVV and KOWB late
tonight. For now will just have a scattered deck, but some
guidance hints at the possibility of ceilings. Of course if the
ceilings develop, fog will not be an issue, but MVFR conditions
will still impact the terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The Heat Advisory looks good for today. Yesterday we once again
underestimated the temperatures and especially the dewpoints. Went
with the highest dewpoints I could find in the available guidance
and increased them just a bit through the day. Also, went a degree
or so above the consensus of guidance for highs this afternoon. It
all boils down to 100-105 in most locations, which will satisfy
the 4+ day criteria for Heat Advisory issuance.

Convection today is supposed to be focused along a weak back-door
cold front that has been forecast to enter the area from the north
this afternoon. The boundary has become harder and harder to find
in the model wind fields and the model QPF has become less
coherent over the last day or so.

The front appears to be located along the Iowa/Missouri border and
eastward through Illinois into northern Indiana as of 0730Z. Short
term guidance brings it down near Highway 13 by late this afternoon.
Will focus low chance PoPs along and north of the Shawnee Hills in
southern Illinois, and eastward through northwest Kentucky and
southwest Indiana. Could also see some isolated to widely
scattered convection in the higher terrain in southeast Missouri.
Figure that the convection will be diurnally based, so would not
expect anything past sunset.

Thursday will be an interesting day across the area. The front is
likely to become stationary from southern Illinois into west
Kentucky early Thursday, but it will likely become even more
diffuse through the day. Would expect moisture to pool in the
vicinity of the boundary, and scattered afternoon convection seems
reasonable with the greatest coverage expected across southern
Illinois.

In the absence of convection or convective debris, temperatures
are likely to climb well into the 90s on Thursday. Figure most
areas will achieve most of their potential warming prior to the
onset of convection, so with dewpoints likely to remain well into
the 70s through the day, heat indices may climb above 100 degrees
once again, especially over west Kentucky and the Missouri Boot-
heel. However, given the uncertainties in the convective forecast,
it is too difficult to determine how much of the area may need a
continuation of the Heat Advisory.

The 00Z models are not sure what they want to do with convection
for Thursday night. Would not be at all surprised to see some at
least isolated convection bounce around areas mainly east of the
Mississippi River through the night, with some weak warm advection
possible in the low-levels.

For Friday, the 00Z NAM is too fast with the arrival of the storm
system moving in from the west. The ECMWF and GFS are in agreement
in keeping any impacts from this system to the west of the area
through Friday. They push whatever is left of the boundary back
to the northeast early Friday, and re-establish the warm sector
over the entire region. Along with this evolution, modest south
southwest low-level flow may finally bring in or mix down drier
air. With plenty of sunshine expected for much of the day,
temperatures will likely climb well into the 90s or well above
guidance. Thankfully, with the dewpoints mixing into the 60s
areawide, heat indices should stay under 100 for the first time in
the last 10 days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Forecast models remain in fairly good agreement in forecasting the
northeastward progression of a mid level shortwave trough from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend. With the
exception of the NAM, most models keep the bulk of the precipitation
west of the immediate forecast area through Friday evening.

Thereafter, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase Saturday into Saturday night. Not confident as to how
much precipitation will actually be around on Saturday, as multiple
models now indicate the brunt of the initial wave will be deflected
just north of the region. The better chance will likely arrive
Saturday night into Sunday morning as another piece of energy heads
northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main
concern during this time will be locally heavy rain with deep
unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water values in the
vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of abundant clouds and scattered precipitation will
likely keep a lid on daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are
forecast over the weekend. It will remain quite humid though with
lows each morning in the lower 70s. Precipitation chances will
decrease Sunday night through Monday night, but not entirely given
the very warm and humid conditions in place. Temperatures by Monday
and especially Tuesday will be in the neighborhood of the 90 degree
mark once again. Our next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday with
the approach of a cold front--the details of which are sketchy at
this point given poor model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A weak cold front will try to push into the area today. It appears
that by midday, light winds will be out of the north at KEVV and
KOWB, in comparison to the persisent light northeast winds farther
south and west. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible along and behind the front. The expected coverage
is too low to mention explicitly at KEVV and KOWB at this time.

Dense fog has developed this morning at KCGI, and MVFR conditions
have been reported at the other sites. All of the fog should burn
off in the first 2 hours of the forecast. IFR or lower conditions
are likely to develop again late tonight at KCGI and KPAH, but
MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.

An area of MVFR clouds currently behind the front over northern
Indiana and northeast Illinois may impact KEVV and KOWB late
tonight. For now will just have a scattered deck, but some
guidance hints at the possibility of ceilings. Of course if the
ceilings develop, fog will not be an issue, but MVFR conditions
will still impact the terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 270823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The Heat Advisory looks good for today. Yesterday we once again
underestimated the temperatures and especially the dewpoints. Went
with the highest dewpoints I could find in the available guidance
and increased them just a bit through the day. Also, went a degree
or so above the consensus of guidance for highs this afternoon. It
all boils down to 100-105 in most locations, which will satisfy
the 4+ day criteria for Heat Advisory issuance.

Convection today is supposed to be focused along a weak back-door
cold front that has been forecast to enter the area from the north
this afternoon. The boundary has become harder and harder to find
in the model wind fields and the model QPF has become less
coherent over the last day or so.

The front appears to be located along the Iowa/Missouri border and
eastward through Illinois into northern Indiana as of 0730Z. Short
term guidance brings it down near Highway 13 by late this afternoon.
Will focus low chance PoPs along and north of the Shawnee Hills in
southern Illinois, and eastward through northwest Kentucky and
southwest Indiana. Could also see some isolated to widely
scattered convection in the higher terrain in southeast Missouri.
Figure that the convection will be diurnally based, so would not
expect anything past sunset.

Thursday will be an interesting day across the area. The front is
likely to become stationary from southern Illinois into west
Kentucky early Thursday, but it will likely become even more
diffuse through the day. Would expect moisture to pool in the
vicinity of the boundary, and scattered afternoon convection seems
reasonable with the greatest coverage expected across southern
Illinois.

In the absence of convection or convective debris, temperatures
are likely to climb well into the 90s on Thursday. Figure most
areas will achieve most of their potential warming prior to the
onset of convection, so with dewpoints likely to remain well into
the 70s through the day, heat indices may climb above 100 degrees
once again, especially over west Kentucky and the Missouri Boot-
heel. However, given the uncertainties in the convective forecast,
it is too difficult to determine how much of the area may need a
continuation of the Heat Advisory.

The 00Z models are not sure what they want to do with convection
for Thursday night. Would not be at all surprised to see some at
least isolated convection bounce around areas mainly east of the
Mississippi River through the night, with some weak warm advection
possible in the low-levels.

For Friday, the 00Z NAM is too fast with the arrival of the storm
system moving in from the west. The ECMWF and GFS are in agreement
in keeping any impacts from this system to the west of the area
through Friday. They push whatever is left of the boundary back
to the northeast early Friday, and re-establish the warm sector
over the entire region. Along with this evolution, modest south
southwest low-level flow may finally bring in or mix down drier
air. With plenty of sunshine expected for much of the day,
temperatures will likely climb well into the 90s or well above
guidance. Thankfully, with the dewpoints mixing into the 60s
areawide, heat indices should stay under 100 for the first time in
the last 10 days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Forecast models remain in fairly good agreement in forecasting the
northeastward progression of a mid level shortwave trough from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend. With the
exception of the NAM, most models keep the bulk of the precipitation
west of the immediate forecast area through Friday evening.

Thereafter, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase Saturday into Saturday night. Not confident as to how
much precipitation will actually be around on Saturday, as multiple
models now indicate the brunt of the initial wave will be deflected
just north of the region. The better chance will likely arrive
Saturday night into Sunday morning as another piece of energy heads
northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main
concern during this time will be locally heavy rain with deep
unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water values in the
vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of abundant clouds and scattered precipitation will
likely keep a lid on daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are
forecast over the weekend. It will remain quite humid though with
lows each morning in the lower 70s. Precipitation chances will
decrease Sunday night through Monday night, but not entirely given
the very warm and humid conditions in place. Temperatures by Monday
and especially Tuesday will be in the neighborhood of the 90 degree
mark once again. Our next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday with
the approach of a cold front--the details of which are sketchy at
this point given poor model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Vsbys are expected to dip into MVFR category before sunrise with
calm winds and moist air in place allowing some fog development.
Mainly KCGI could go down to IFR vsbys.  Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected after 14z with some cu development and light and variable
winds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 17z at
KEVV and KOWB, but chances are too low to include in TAF.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The Heat Advisory looks good for today. Yesterday we once again
underestimated the temperatures and especially the dewpoints. Went
with the highest dewpoints I could find in the available guidance
and increased them just a bit through the day. Also, went a degree
or so above the consensus of guidance for highs this afternoon. It
all boils down to 100-105 in most locations, which will satisfy
the 4+ day criteria for Heat Advisory issuance.

Convection today is supposed to be focused along a weak back-door
cold front that has been forecast to enter the area from the north
this afternoon. The boundary has become harder and harder to find
in the model wind fields and the model QPF has become less
coherent over the last day or so.

The front appears to be located along the Iowa/Missouri border and
eastward through Illinois into northern Indiana as of 0730Z. Short
term guidance brings it down near Highway 13 by late this afternoon.
Will focus low chance PoPs along and north of the Shawnee Hills in
southern Illinois, and eastward through northwest Kentucky and
southwest Indiana. Could also see some isolated to widely
scattered convection in the higher terrain in southeast Missouri.
Figure that the convection will be diurnally based, so would not
expect anything past sunset.

Thursday will be an interesting day across the area. The front is
likely to become stationary from southern Illinois into west
Kentucky early Thursday, but it will likely become even more
diffuse through the day. Would expect moisture to pool in the
vicinity of the boundary, and scattered afternoon convection seems
reasonable with the greatest coverage expected across southern
Illinois.

In the absence of convection or convective debris, temperatures
are likely to climb well into the 90s on Thursday. Figure most
areas will achieve most of their potential warming prior to the
onset of convection, so with dewpoints likely to remain well into
the 70s through the day, heat indices may climb above 100 degrees
once again, especially over west Kentucky and the Missouri Boot-
heel. However, given the uncertainties in the convective forecast,
it is too difficult to determine how much of the area may need a
continuation of the Heat Advisory.

The 00Z models are not sure what they want to do with convection
for Thursday night. Would not be at all surprised to see some at
least isolated convection bounce around areas mainly east of the
Mississippi River through the night, with some weak warm advection
possible in the low-levels.

For Friday, the 00Z NAM is too fast with the arrival of the storm
system moving in from the west. The ECMWF and GFS are in agreement
in keeping any impacts from this system to the west of the area
through Friday. They push whatever is left of the boundary back
to the northeast early Friday, and re-establish the warm sector
over the entire region. Along with this evolution, modest south
southwest low-level flow may finally bring in or mix down drier
air. With plenty of sunshine expected for much of the day,
temperatures will likely climb well into the 90s or well above
guidance. Thankfully, with the dewpoints mixing into the 60s
areawide, heat indices should stay under 100 for the first time in
the last 10 days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

Forecast models remain in fairly good agreement in forecasting the
northeastward progression of a mid level shortwave trough from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes over the weekend. With the
exception of the NAM, most models keep the bulk of the precipitation
west of the immediate forecast area through Friday evening.

Thereafter, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase Saturday into Saturday night. Not confident as to how
much precipitation will actually be around on Saturday, as multiple
models now indicate the brunt of the initial wave will be deflected
just north of the region. The better chance will likely arrive
Saturday night into Sunday morning as another piece of energy heads
northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main
concern during this time will be locally heavy rain with deep
unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water values in the
vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of abundant clouds and scattered precipitation will
likely keep a lid on daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are
forecast over the weekend. It will remain quite humid though with
lows each morning in the lower 70s. Precipitation chances will
decrease Sunday night through Monday night, but not entirely given
the very warm and humid conditions in place. Temperatures by Monday
and especially Tuesday will be in the neighborhood of the 90 degree
mark once again. Our next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday with
the approach of a cold front--the details of which are sketchy at
this point given poor model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Vsbys are expected to dip into MVFR category before sunrise with
calm winds and moist air in place allowing some fog development.
Mainly KCGI could go down to IFR vsbys.  Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected after 14z with some cu development and light and variable
winds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 17z at
KEVV and KOWB, but chances are too low to include in TAF.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 270459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 pm CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain in place over the
area for the most part for a couple more days.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase over the northern and
northwest sections of our CWA on Wednesday as a back door cold front
makes its way toward the region. Even with the aforementioned
boundary forecast to drop into the far northern portions of our CWA
Wednesday night, with lack of heating and instability, think
precipitation coverage will be limited to areas in the immediate
vicinity of the boundary.

Thursday the boundary is forecast to sag a bit farther into the
northeast sections of our CWA, so precipitation chances should be
best over the northeast half of our CWA. With a lack of deep
moisture and diurnal heating/instability, think Thursday night will
be dry.

Decided to extend our Heat Advisory for another 24 hours for the
entire CWA. Not as confident that we will see 100-105 heat indices
over the southeast sections of our CWA Wednesday afternoon, but will
issue for the entire area anyway. Don`t forsee many changes to
dew points in the immediate future, but beyond Wednesday, increased
cloud coverage and increased precipitation chances should keep heat
indices below the century mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The operational GFS is still a little faster than the ECMWF/GEM,
especially after Fri, with the mid level shrtwv trof and sfc features
that will be moving across the central Plains at the beginning of
the extended forecast period. The PAH forecast area will be in the
warm sector by Fri, allowing mostly clear skies and possibly some
lower dew point air mixing down. Highs should be in the lower 90s.

There could be some shower and tstm activity in srn IL/sern MO Fri
night, but PoPs ramp up Sat as srly low level flow brings in more
moisture ahead of the low somewhere in the upper Midwest. By Sat
night, the system should begin to shear out a bit, but there should
be enough energy in the cyclonic wswrly flow aloft to encourage at
least scattered shower and tstm development through the day Sunday.
The sfc boundary associated with the upper Midwest low is not
progged to make it to our region. Thus, by the end of the weekend,
the atmospheric column should begin to dry out a bit under mostly
zonal flow aloft. There will probably be enough instability
available for more of an isolated, to perhaps scattered in the east,
coverage of convection through Mon. After a pcpn reprieve for most
of the region Mon night, the med range models are suggesting another
frontal system may be on our doorstep by Tue. Isolated showers and
tstms are forecast for then.

It will still be warm and rather humid through the period, but not
to heat advisory criteria. We are now entering a climatological
period where a gradual fall-off of temps should be expected. Sunday
will be the coolest day with highs only in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Vsbys are expected to dip into MVFR category before sunrise with
calm winds and moist air in place allowing some fog development.
Mainly KCGI could go down to IFR vsbys.  Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected after 14z with some cu development and light and variable
winds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 17z at
KEVV and KOWB, but chances are too low to include in TAF.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

AVIATION...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 270459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 pm CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain in place over the
area for the most part for a couple more days.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase over the northern and
northwest sections of our CWA on Wednesday as a back door cold front
makes its way toward the region. Even with the aforementioned
boundary forecast to drop into the far northern portions of our CWA
Wednesday night, with lack of heating and instability, think
precipitation coverage will be limited to areas in the immediate
vicinity of the boundary.

Thursday the boundary is forecast to sag a bit farther into the
northeast sections of our CWA, so precipitation chances should be
best over the northeast half of our CWA. With a lack of deep
moisture and diurnal heating/instability, think Thursday night will
be dry.

Decided to extend our Heat Advisory for another 24 hours for the
entire CWA. Not as confident that we will see 100-105 heat indices
over the southeast sections of our CWA Wednesday afternoon, but will
issue for the entire area anyway. Don`t forsee many changes to
dew points in the immediate future, but beyond Wednesday, increased
cloud coverage and increased precipitation chances should keep heat
indices below the century mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The operational GFS is still a little faster than the ECMWF/GEM,
especially after Fri, with the mid level shrtwv trof and sfc features
that will be moving across the central Plains at the beginning of
the extended forecast period. The PAH forecast area will be in the
warm sector by Fri, allowing mostly clear skies and possibly some
lower dew point air mixing down. Highs should be in the lower 90s.

There could be some shower and tstm activity in srn IL/sern MO Fri
night, but PoPs ramp up Sat as srly low level flow brings in more
moisture ahead of the low somewhere in the upper Midwest. By Sat
night, the system should begin to shear out a bit, but there should
be enough energy in the cyclonic wswrly flow aloft to encourage at
least scattered shower and tstm development through the day Sunday.
The sfc boundary associated with the upper Midwest low is not
progged to make it to our region. Thus, by the end of the weekend,
the atmospheric column should begin to dry out a bit under mostly
zonal flow aloft. There will probably be enough instability
available for more of an isolated, to perhaps scattered in the east,
coverage of convection through Mon. After a pcpn reprieve for most
of the region Mon night, the med range models are suggesting another
frontal system may be on our doorstep by Tue. Isolated showers and
tstms are forecast for then.

It will still be warm and rather humid through the period, but not
to heat advisory criteria. We are now entering a climatological
period where a gradual fall-off of temps should be expected. Sunday
will be the coolest day with highs only in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Vsbys are expected to dip into MVFR category before sunrise with
calm winds and moist air in place allowing some fog development.
Mainly KCGI could go down to IFR vsbys.  Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected after 14z with some cu development and light and variable
winds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 17z at
KEVV and KOWB, but chances are too low to include in TAF.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

AVIATION...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 262021
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 pm CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain in place over the
area for the most part for a couple more days.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase over the northern and
northwest sections of our CWA on Wednesday as a back door cold front
makes its way toward the region. Even with the aforementioned
boundary forecast to drop into the far northern portions of our CWA
Wednesday night, with lack of heating and instability, think
precipitation coverage will be limited to areas in the immediate
vicinity of the boundary.

Thursday the boundary is forecast to sag a bit farther into the
northeast sections of our CWA, so precipitation chances should be
best over the northeast half of our CWA. With a lack of deep
moisture and diurnal heating/instability, think Thursday night will
be dry.

Decided to extend our Heat Advisory for another 24 hours for the
entire CWA. Not as confident that we will see 100-105 heat indices
over the southeast sections of our CWA Wednesday afternoon, but will
issue for the entire area anyway. Don`t forsee many changes to
dewpoints in the immediate future, but beyond Wednesday, increased
cloud coverage and increased precipitation chances should keep heat
indices below the century mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The operational GFS is still a little faster than the ECMWF/GEM,
especially after Fri, with the mid level shrtwv trof and sfc features
that will be moving across the central Plains at the beginning of
the extended forecast period. The PAH forecast area will be in the
warm sector by Fri, allowing mostly clear skies and possibly some
lower dewpoint air mixing down. Highs should be in the lower 90s.

There could be some shower and tstm activity in srn IL/sern MO Fri
night, but PoPs ramp up Sat as srly low level flow brings in more
moisture ahead of the low somewhere in the upper Midwest. By Sat
night, the system should begin to shear out a bit, but there should
be enough energy in the cyclonic wswrly flow aloft to encourage at
least scattered shower and tstm development through the day Sunday.
The sfc boundary associated with the upper Midwest low is not
progged to make it to our region. Thus, by the end of the weekend,
the atmospheric column should begin to dry out a bit under mostly
zonal flow aloft. There will probably be enough instability
available for more of an isolated, to perhaps scattered in the east,
coverage of convection through Mon. After a pcpn reprieve for most
of the region Mon night, the med range models are suggesting another
frontal system may be on our doorstep by Tue. Isolated showers and
tstms are forecast for then.

It will still be warm and rather humid through the period, but not
to heat advisory criteria. We are now entering a climatological
period where a gradual fall-off of temps should be expected. Sunday
will be the coolest day with highs only in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Aside from IFR cigs/vsbys at KCGI and MVFR cigs/vsbys at
KPAH/EVV/KOWB between 08-13Z, VFR conditions will continue through
the period as high pressure aloft maintains control of the
region`s weather. Winds will either be calm or light and variable
through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...DB








000
FXUS63 KPAH 262021
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 pm CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain in place over the
area for the most part for a couple more days.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase over the northern and
northwest sections of our CWA on Wednesday as a back door cold front
makes its way toward the region. Even with the aforementioned
boundary forecast to drop into the far northern portions of our CWA
Wednesday night, with lack of heating and instability, think
precipitation coverage will be limited to areas in the immediate
vicinity of the boundary.

Thursday the boundary is forecast to sag a bit farther into the
northeast sections of our CWA, so precipitation chances should be
best over the northeast half of our CWA. With a lack of deep
moisture and diurnal heating/instability, think Thursday night will
be dry.

Decided to extend our Heat Advisory for another 24 hours for the
entire CWA. Not as confident that we will see 100-105 heat indices
over the southeast sections of our CWA Wednesday afternoon, but will
issue for the entire area anyway. Don`t forsee many changes to
dewpoints in the immediate future, but beyond Wednesday, increased
cloud coverage and increased precipitation chances should keep heat
indices below the century mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The operational GFS is still a little faster than the ECMWF/GEM,
especially after Fri, with the mid level shrtwv trof and sfc features
that will be moving across the central Plains at the beginning of
the extended forecast period. The PAH forecast area will be in the
warm sector by Fri, allowing mostly clear skies and possibly some
lower dewpoint air mixing down. Highs should be in the lower 90s.

There could be some shower and tstm activity in srn IL/sern MO Fri
night, but PoPs ramp up Sat as srly low level flow brings in more
moisture ahead of the low somewhere in the upper Midwest. By Sat
night, the system should begin to shear out a bit, but there should
be enough energy in the cyclonic wswrly flow aloft to encourage at
least scattered shower and tstm development through the day Sunday.
The sfc boundary associated with the upper Midwest low is not
progged to make it to our region. Thus, by the end of the weekend,
the atmospheric column should begin to dry out a bit under mostly
zonal flow aloft. There will probably be enough instability
available for more of an isolated, to perhaps scattered in the east,
coverage of convection through Mon. After a pcpn reprieve for most
of the region Mon night, the med range models are suggesting another
frontal system may be on our doorstep by Tue. Isolated showers and
tstms are forecast for then.

It will still be warm and rather humid through the period, but not
to heat advisory criteria. We are now entering a climatological
period where a gradual fall-off of temps should be expected. Sunday
will be the coolest day with highs only in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Aside from IFR cigs/vsbys at KCGI and MVFR cigs/vsbys at
KPAH/EVV/KOWB between 08-13Z, VFR conditions will continue through
the period as high pressure aloft maintains control of the
region`s weather. Winds will either be calm or light and variable
through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...DB









000
FXUS63 KPAH 261716 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The 00Z models are in reasonably good agreement through the short
term period. The east to west oriented upper ridge will hold
strong over the region today, and hang on into Wednesday before
finally being suppressed to the south/southeast of the area Thursday.
At the surface, weak surface high pressure will dominate today,
but a back-door cold front will reach the I-64 corridor by the end
of the day Wednesday. This boundary will hang up somewhere across
southern Illinois and west Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday.

The models and their statistical guidance continue to lower
dewpoints a bit each day, but they are keeping high temperatures
steady in the lower to middle 90s each day. A look at NAM and GFS
soundings revealed that the models do not have a good handle on
the moist dewpoints across the area.

Most areas will likely reach triple digit heat indices again this
afternoon. Much of the Pennyrile rebounded to around 100 Monday
afternoon, and figure today will be similar to yesterday.
Therefore, will let the Heat Advisory continue into its 7th
consecutive day.

The big question is whether or not it should be extended into
Wednesday. Forecast heat indices climb close to 100 over most of
the area again on Wednesday, as the trend in the forecast over the
last few days has been for higher heat indices on Wednesday. Would
prefer to see what happens today, and let the day shift make the
decision to extend or not.

The GFS and NAM try to extend the low-level thermal ridge eastward
across the southern half of the area Thursday. Dewpoints actually
mix down into the 60s in association with this thermal ridge.
However, with a frontal boundary in the region, would not be
surprised to see moisture pooling along it. Would not be at all
surprised to see at least the south or southwest half of the area
reach triple digit heat indices again Thursday afternoon. Will
have to make a decision on Wednesday before concerning ourselves
with Thursday`s prospects, but it is certainly within the range of
possibilities.

Convective trends for today are not well defined. Looks like some
widely scattered diurnally-forced development will be possible in
the Ozarks, and possibly along the Tennessee border. Will maintain
the small chances in the north Wednesday as the weak cold front
makes its approach. The models are not as wet with this surface
feature heading into Thursday, but small chances seem warranted
over much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A return to dry weather is anticipated Thursday night and Friday as
high pressure ridging prevails aloft. One more day of temperatures
above the 90 degree mark is expected on Friday. However, with
relatively drier dew points in the mid 60s, peak afternoon heat
index readings should manage no higher than the mid 90s.

Forecast models are generally in good agreement in forecasting the
eastward progression of an upper level trough from the central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys over the
weekend. Increasing lift and moisture with this feature will
heighten the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Friday night or Saturday. The greatest chance of convective activity
will most likely occur Saturday night and Sunday with the best
dynamics in place. While a few strong storms certainly cannot be
ruled out during this time, the main concern will be locally heavy
rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water
values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of clouds and precipitation will likely keep a lid on
daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are forecast over the
weekend. It will likely be rather humid with lows each morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation chances will decrease
early next week, but slight chances remain Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures by Monday will be within striking distance of the 90
degree mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Aside from IFR cigs/vsbys at KCGI and MVFR cigs/vsbys at
KPAH/EVV/KOWB between 08-13Z, VFR conditions will continue through
the period as high pressure aloft maintains control of the
region`s weather. Winds will either be calm or light and variable
through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 261716 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The 00Z models are in reasonably good agreement through the short
term period. The east to west oriented upper ridge will hold
strong over the region today, and hang on into Wednesday before
finally being suppressed to the south/southeast of the area Thursday.
At the surface, weak surface high pressure will dominate today,
but a back-door cold front will reach the I-64 corridor by the end
of the day Wednesday. This boundary will hang up somewhere across
southern Illinois and west Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday.

The models and their statistical guidance continue to lower
dewpoints a bit each day, but they are keeping high temperatures
steady in the lower to middle 90s each day. A look at NAM and GFS
soundings revealed that the models do not have a good handle on
the moist dewpoints across the area.

Most areas will likely reach triple digit heat indices again this
afternoon. Much of the Pennyrile rebounded to around 100 Monday
afternoon, and figure today will be similar to yesterday.
Therefore, will let the Heat Advisory continue into its 7th
consecutive day.

The big question is whether or not it should be extended into
Wednesday. Forecast heat indices climb close to 100 over most of
the area again on Wednesday, as the trend in the forecast over the
last few days has been for higher heat indices on Wednesday. Would
prefer to see what happens today, and let the day shift make the
decision to extend or not.

The GFS and NAM try to extend the low-level thermal ridge eastward
across the southern half of the area Thursday. Dewpoints actually
mix down into the 60s in association with this thermal ridge.
However, with a frontal boundary in the region, would not be
surprised to see moisture pooling along it. Would not be at all
surprised to see at least the south or southwest half of the area
reach triple digit heat indices again Thursday afternoon. Will
have to make a decision on Wednesday before concerning ourselves
with Thursday`s prospects, but it is certainly within the range of
possibilities.

Convective trends for today are not well defined. Looks like some
widely scattered diurnally-forced development will be possible in
the Ozarks, and possibly along the Tennessee border. Will maintain
the small chances in the north Wednesday as the weak cold front
makes its approach. The models are not as wet with this surface
feature heading into Thursday, but small chances seem warranted
over much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A return to dry weather is anticipated Thursday night and Friday as
high pressure ridging prevails aloft. One more day of temperatures
above the 90 degree mark is expected on Friday. However, with
relatively drier dew points in the mid 60s, peak afternoon heat
index readings should manage no higher than the mid 90s.

Forecast models are generally in good agreement in forecasting the
eastward progression of an upper level trough from the central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys over the
weekend. Increasing lift and moisture with this feature will
heighten the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Friday night or Saturday. The greatest chance of convective activity
will most likely occur Saturday night and Sunday with the best
dynamics in place. While a few strong storms certainly cannot be
ruled out during this time, the main concern will be locally heavy
rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water
values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of clouds and precipitation will likely keep a lid on
daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are forecast over the
weekend. It will likely be rather humid with lows each morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation chances will decrease
early next week, but slight chances remain Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures by Monday will be within striking distance of the 90
degree mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Aside from IFR cigs/vsbys at KCGI and MVFR cigs/vsbys at
KPAH/EVV/KOWB between 08-13Z, VFR conditions will continue through
the period as high pressure aloft maintains control of the
region`s weather. Winds will either be calm or light and variable
through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 261144
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
644 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The 00Z models are in reasonably good agreement through the short
term period. The east to west oriented upper ridge will hold
strong over the region today, and hang on into Wednesday before
finally being suppressed to the south/southeast of the area Thursday.
At the surface, weak surface high pressure will dominate today,
but a back-door cold front will reach the I-64 corridor by the end
of the day Wednesday. This boundary will hang up somewhere across
southern Illinois and west Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday.

The models and their statistical guidance continue to lower
dewpoints a bit each day, but they are keeping high temperatures
steady in the lower to middle 90s each day. A look at NAM and GFS
soundings revealed that the models do not have a good handle on
the moist dewpoints across the area.

Most areas will likely reach triple digit heat indices again this
afternoon. Much of the Pennyrile rebounded to around 100 Monday
afternoon, and figure today will be similar to yesterday.
Therefore, will let the Heat Advisory continue into its 7th
consecutive day.

The big question is whether or not it should be extended into
Wednesday. Forecast heat indices climb close to 100 over most of
the area again on Wednesday, as the trend in the forecast over the
last few days has been for higher heat indices on Wednesday. Would
prefer to see what happens today, and let the day shift make the
decision to extend or not.

The GFS and NAM try to extend the low-level thermal ridge eastward
across the southern half of the area Thursday. Dewpoints actually
mix down into the 60s in association with this thermal ridge.
However, with a frontal boundary in the region, would not be
surprised to see moisture pooling along it. Would not be at all
surprised to see at least the south or southwest half of the area
reach triple digit heat indices again Thursday afternoon. Will
have to make a decision on Wednesday before concerning ourselves
with Thursday`s prospects, but it is certainly within the range of
possibilities.

Convective trends for today are not well defined. Looks like some
widely scattered diurnally-forced development will be possible in
the Ozarks, and possibly along the Tennessee border. Will maintain
the small chances in the north Wednesday as the weak cold front
makes its approach. The models are not as wet with this surface
feature heading into Thursday, but small chances seem warranted
over much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A return to dry weather is anticipated Thursday night and Friday as
high pressure ridging prevails aloft. One more day of temperatures
above the 90 degree mark is expected on Friday. However, with
relatively drier dew points in the mid 60s, peak afternoon heat
index readings should manage no higher than the mid 90s.

Forecast models are generally in good agreement in forecasting the
eastward progression of an upper level trough from the central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys over the
weekend. Increasing lift and moisture with this feature will
heighten the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Friday night or Saturday. The greatest chance of convective activity
will most likely occur Saturday night and Sunday with the best
dynamics in place. While a few strong storms certainly cannot be
ruled out during this time, the main concern will be locally heavy
rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water
values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of clouds and precipitation will likely keep a lid on
daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are forecast over the
weekend. It will likely be rather humid with lows each morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation chances will decrease
early next week, but slight chances remain Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures by Monday will be within striking distance of the 90
degree mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The expected coverage is too low to mention in the
terminal forecasts. Otherwise, fog will be the only issue of
concern to aviation in this forecast cycle. IFR to MVFR fog this
morning should burn off in the first hour of the forecast. There
has been less fog this morning than yesterday morning, and that
trend is expected to continue for development Wednesday morning.
Figure most places will see a few hours of MVFR conditions. KCGI
has the best chance for worse conditions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 261144
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
644 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The 00Z models are in reasonably good agreement through the short
term period. The east to west oriented upper ridge will hold
strong over the region today, and hang on into Wednesday before
finally being suppressed to the south/southeast of the area Thursday.
At the surface, weak surface high pressure will dominate today,
but a back-door cold front will reach the I-64 corridor by the end
of the day Wednesday. This boundary will hang up somewhere across
southern Illinois and west Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday.

The models and their statistical guidance continue to lower
dewpoints a bit each day, but they are keeping high temperatures
steady in the lower to middle 90s each day. A look at NAM and GFS
soundings revealed that the models do not have a good handle on
the moist dewpoints across the area.

Most areas will likely reach triple digit heat indices again this
afternoon. Much of the Pennyrile rebounded to around 100 Monday
afternoon, and figure today will be similar to yesterday.
Therefore, will let the Heat Advisory continue into its 7th
consecutive day.

The big question is whether or not it should be extended into
Wednesday. Forecast heat indices climb close to 100 over most of
the area again on Wednesday, as the trend in the forecast over the
last few days has been for higher heat indices on Wednesday. Would
prefer to see what happens today, and let the day shift make the
decision to extend or not.

The GFS and NAM try to extend the low-level thermal ridge eastward
across the southern half of the area Thursday. Dewpoints actually
mix down into the 60s in association with this thermal ridge.
However, with a frontal boundary in the region, would not be
surprised to see moisture pooling along it. Would not be at all
surprised to see at least the south or southwest half of the area
reach triple digit heat indices again Thursday afternoon. Will
have to make a decision on Wednesday before concerning ourselves
with Thursday`s prospects, but it is certainly within the range of
possibilities.

Convective trends for today are not well defined. Looks like some
widely scattered diurnally-forced development will be possible in
the Ozarks, and possibly along the Tennessee border. Will maintain
the small chances in the north Wednesday as the weak cold front
makes its approach. The models are not as wet with this surface
feature heading into Thursday, but small chances seem warranted
over much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A return to dry weather is anticipated Thursday night and Friday as
high pressure ridging prevails aloft. One more day of temperatures
above the 90 degree mark is expected on Friday. However, with
relatively drier dew points in the mid 60s, peak afternoon heat
index readings should manage no higher than the mid 90s.

Forecast models are generally in good agreement in forecasting the
eastward progression of an upper level trough from the central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys over the
weekend. Increasing lift and moisture with this feature will
heighten the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Friday night or Saturday. The greatest chance of convective activity
will most likely occur Saturday night and Sunday with the best
dynamics in place. While a few strong storms certainly cannot be
ruled out during this time, the main concern will be locally heavy
rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water
values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of clouds and precipitation will likely keep a lid on
daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are forecast over the
weekend. It will likely be rather humid with lows each morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation chances will decrease
early next week, but slight chances remain Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures by Monday will be within striking distance of the 90
degree mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

An isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The expected coverage is too low to mention in the
terminal forecasts. Otherwise, fog will be the only issue of
concern to aviation in this forecast cycle. IFR to MVFR fog this
morning should burn off in the first hour of the forecast. There
has been less fog this morning than yesterday morning, and that
trend is expected to continue for development Wednesday morning.
Figure most places will see a few hours of MVFR conditions. KCGI
has the best chance for worse conditions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 260814
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
314 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The 00Z models are in reasonably good agreement through the short
term period. The east to west oriented upper ridge will hold
strong over the region today, and hang on into Wednesday before
finally being suppressed to the south/southeast of the area Thursday.
At the surface, weak surface high pressure will dominate today,
but a back-door cold front will reach the I-64 corridor by the end
of the day Wednesday. This boundary will hang up somewhere across
southern Illinois and west Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday.

The models and their statistical guidance continue to lower
dewpoints a bit each day, but they are keeping high temperatures
steady in the lower to middle 90s each day. A look at NAM and GFS
soundings revealed that the models do not have a good handle on
the moist dewpoints across the area.

Most areas will likely reach triple digit heat indices again this
afternoon. Much of the Pennyrile rebounded to around 100 Monday
afternoon, and figure today will be similar to yesterday.
Therefore, will let the Heat Advisory continue into its 7th
consecutive day.

The big question is whether or not it should be extended into
Wednesday. Forecast heat indices climb close to 100 over most of
the area again on Wednesday, as the trend in the forecast over the
last few days has been for higher heat indices on Wednesday. Would
prefer to see what happens today, and let the day shift make the
decision to extend or not.

The GFS and NAM try to extend the low-level thermal ridge eastward
across the southern half of the area Thursday. Dewpoints actually
mix down into the 60s in association with this thermal ridge.
However, with a frontal boundary in the region, would not be
surprised to see moisture pooling along it. Would not be at all
surprised to see at least the south or southwest half of the area
reach triple digit heat indices again Thursday afternoon. Will
have to make a decision on Wednesday before concerning ourselves
with Thursday`s prospects, but it is certainly within the range of
possibilities.

Convective trends for today are not well defined. Looks like some
widely scattered diurnally-forced development will be possible in
the Ozarks, and possibly along the Tennessee border. Will maintain
the small chances in the north Wednesday as the weak cold front
makes its approach. The models are not as wet with this surface
feature heading into Thursday, but small chances seem warranted
over much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A return to dry weather is anticipated Thursday night and Friday as
high pressure ridging prevails aloft. One more day of temperatures
above the 90 degree mark is expected on Friday. However, with
relatively drier dew points in the mid 60s, peak afternoon heat
index readings should manage no higher than the mid 90s.

Forecast models are generally in good agreement in forecasting the
eastward progression of an upper level trough from the central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys over the
weekend. Increasing lift and moisture with this feature will
heighten the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Friday night or Saturday. The greatest chance of convective activity
will most likely occur Saturday night and Sunday with the best
dynamics in place. While a few strong storms certainly cannot be
ruled out during this time, the main concern will be locally heavy
rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water
values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of clouds and precipitation will likely keep a lid on
daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are forecast over the
weekend. It will likely be rather humid with lows each morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation chances will decrease
early next week, but slight chances remain Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures by Monday will be within striking distance of the 90
degree mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Clear and calm conditions in place, which may lead to the anticipated
fog formation overnight at the Terminals. Only made tweaks to the
existing forecast. Some CU expected tomorrow with light ENE winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 260814
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
314 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The 00Z models are in reasonably good agreement through the short
term period. The east to west oriented upper ridge will hold
strong over the region today, and hang on into Wednesday before
finally being suppressed to the south/southeast of the area Thursday.
At the surface, weak surface high pressure will dominate today,
but a back-door cold front will reach the I-64 corridor by the end
of the day Wednesday. This boundary will hang up somewhere across
southern Illinois and west Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday.

The models and their statistical guidance continue to lower
dewpoints a bit each day, but they are keeping high temperatures
steady in the lower to middle 90s each day. A look at NAM and GFS
soundings revealed that the models do not have a good handle on
the moist dewpoints across the area.

Most areas will likely reach triple digit heat indices again this
afternoon. Much of the Pennyrile rebounded to around 100 Monday
afternoon, and figure today will be similar to yesterday.
Therefore, will let the Heat Advisory continue into its 7th
consecutive day.

The big question is whether or not it should be extended into
Wednesday. Forecast heat indices climb close to 100 over most of
the area again on Wednesday, as the trend in the forecast over the
last few days has been for higher heat indices on Wednesday. Would
prefer to see what happens today, and let the day shift make the
decision to extend or not.

The GFS and NAM try to extend the low-level thermal ridge eastward
across the southern half of the area Thursday. Dewpoints actually
mix down into the 60s in association with this thermal ridge.
However, with a frontal boundary in the region, would not be
surprised to see moisture pooling along it. Would not be at all
surprised to see at least the south or southwest half of the area
reach triple digit heat indices again Thursday afternoon. Will
have to make a decision on Wednesday before concerning ourselves
with Thursday`s prospects, but it is certainly within the range of
possibilities.

Convective trends for today are not well defined. Looks like some
widely scattered diurnally-forced development will be possible in
the Ozarks, and possibly along the Tennessee border. Will maintain
the small chances in the north Wednesday as the weak cold front
makes its approach. The models are not as wet with this surface
feature heading into Thursday, but small chances seem warranted
over much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A return to dry weather is anticipated Thursday night and Friday as
high pressure ridging prevails aloft. One more day of temperatures
above the 90 degree mark is expected on Friday. However, with
relatively drier dew points in the mid 60s, peak afternoon heat
index readings should manage no higher than the mid 90s.

Forecast models are generally in good agreement in forecasting the
eastward progression of an upper level trough from the central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys over the
weekend. Increasing lift and moisture with this feature will
heighten the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Friday night or Saturday. The greatest chance of convective activity
will most likely occur Saturday night and Sunday with the best
dynamics in place. While a few strong storms certainly cannot be
ruled out during this time, the main concern will be locally heavy
rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and precipitable water
values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

The presence of clouds and precipitation will likely keep a lid on
daytime temperatures, thus highs in the 80s are forecast over the
weekend. It will likely be rather humid with lows each morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation chances will decrease
early next week, but slight chances remain Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures by Monday will be within striking distance of the 90
degree mark once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Clear and calm conditions in place, which may lead to the anticipated
fog formation overnight at the Terminals. Only made tweaks to the
existing forecast. Some CU expected tomorrow with light ENE winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 260407
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1107 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A mid/upper high will continue to linger over the PAH forecast
area through mid week, with minimal coverage of diurnally-driven
showers and tstms. Although the lower trop is soupy, there are no
real triggers for convection in place today or Tue. However, on
Wed, as mid level shrtwv energy begins to impinge on the dominant
mid/upper high, and a sfc cold front approaches from the north,
there may be an increase in coverage of shower and tstm activity
for roughly the nrn third of the region. Scattered convective
activity may linger there into Wed night.

Sfc winds, though light, should remain predominantly out of the
east or ne through the short term period. This may help to limit
sfc dewpoints through Wed (the lower/mid 70s are still forecast). A
heat advisory will be continued through Tue afternoon, but not
extended at this time. However, the heat indices will probably
flirt with 100 on Wed in the wrn half of the region where there
may be less sunshine. Highs across the region are expected to be
slightly cooler than those on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Forecast confidence in the long term is relatively low due to
continued model disagreement.

The long term starts off with a stationary front lying NW-SE across
our CWA. The presence of the boundary combined with weak upper
support may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the northeast two thirds of our CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating/instability, models are showing Thursday night to be dry.

On Friday the aforementioned stationary front will be undergoing
frontolysis (washing out), but combined with a little more upper
support there could be showers and thunderstorms over roughly the
same part of the CWA as Thursday.

Beyond Friday is where model solutions really begin to diverge.
Therefore rather than an exhaustive discussion of the differences
between models for each 12 hour period, will keep the discussion for
the remainder of the long term rather brief. Forecast is a blend of
the CRH init, the GFS, and the ECMWF with heavy leaning toward the
ECMWF.

Friday night precipitation chances may make their way NW-SE
across the CWA with the approach of a slow moving frontal system.
Long story short, probability of precipitation steadily increases
area wide with the approach and ultimate passage of the front on
Sunday. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this system
is a possibility Sunday night and Monday, especially the northeast
tow thirds of our CWA.

Temperatures through the period will generally top out in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Unfortunately, dew
points will also remain in the upper 60s to around 70, so relative
humidities will keep things a bit sticky here in the lower Ohio
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Clear and calm conditions in place, which may lead to the anticipated
fog formation overnight at the Terminals. Only made tweaks to the
existing forecast. Some CU expected tomorrow with light ENE winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$













000
FXUS63 KPAH 260407
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1107 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A mid/upper high will continue to linger over the PAH forecast
area through mid week, with minimal coverage of diurnally-driven
showers and tstms. Although the lower trop is soupy, there are no
real triggers for convection in place today or Tue. However, on
Wed, as mid level shrtwv energy begins to impinge on the dominant
mid/upper high, and a sfc cold front approaches from the north,
there may be an increase in coverage of shower and tstm activity
for roughly the nrn third of the region. Scattered convective
activity may linger there into Wed night.

Sfc winds, though light, should remain predominantly out of the
east or ne through the short term period. This may help to limit
sfc dewpoints through Wed (the lower/mid 70s are still forecast). A
heat advisory will be continued through Tue afternoon, but not
extended at this time. However, the heat indices will probably
flirt with 100 on Wed in the wrn half of the region where there
may be less sunshine. Highs across the region are expected to be
slightly cooler than those on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Forecast confidence in the long term is relatively low due to
continued model disagreement.

The long term starts off with a stationary front lying NW-SE across
our CWA. The presence of the boundary combined with weak upper
support may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the northeast two thirds of our CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating/instability, models are showing Thursday night to be dry.

On Friday the aforementioned stationary front will be undergoing
frontolysis (washing out), but combined with a little more upper
support there could be showers and thunderstorms over roughly the
same part of the CWA as Thursday.

Beyond Friday is where model solutions really begin to diverge.
Therefore rather than an exhaustive discussion of the differences
between models for each 12 hour period, will keep the discussion for
the remainder of the long term rather brief. Forecast is a blend of
the CRH init, the GFS, and the ECMWF with heavy leaning toward the
ECMWF.

Friday night precipitation chances may make their way NW-SE
across the CWA with the approach of a slow moving frontal system.
Long story short, probability of precipitation steadily increases
area wide with the approach and ultimate passage of the front on
Sunday. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this system
is a possibility Sunday night and Monday, especially the northeast
tow thirds of our CWA.

Temperatures through the period will generally top out in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Unfortunately, dew
points will also remain in the upper 60s to around 70, so relative
humidities will keep things a bit sticky here in the lower Ohio
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Clear and calm conditions in place, which may lead to the anticipated
fog formation overnight at the Terminals. Only made tweaks to the
existing forecast. Some CU expected tomorrow with light ENE winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$














000
FXUS63 KPAH 252305
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
605 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A mid/upper high will continue to linger over the PAH forecast
area through mid week, with minimal coverage of diurnally-driven
showers and tstms. Although the lower trop is soupy, there are no
real triggers for convection in place today or Tue. However, on
Wed, as mid level shrtwv energy begins to impinge on the dominant
mid/upper high, and a sfc cold front approaches from the north,
there may be an increase in coverage of shower and tstm activity
for roughly the nrn third of the region. Scattered convective
activity may linger there into Wed night.

Sfc winds, though light, should remain predominantly out of the
east or ne through the short term period. This may help to limit
sfc dewpoints through Wed (the lower/mid 70s are still forecast). A
heat advisory will be continued through Tue afternoon, but not
extended at this time. However, the heat indices will probably
flirt with 100 on Wed in the wrn half of the region where there
may be less sunshine. Highs across the region are expected to be
slightly cooler than those on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Forecast confidence in the long term is relatively low due to
continued model disagreement.

The long term starts off with a stationary front lying NW-SE across
our CWA. The presence of the boundary combined with weak upper
support may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the northeast two thirds of our CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating/instability, models are showing Thursday night to be dry.

On Friday the aforementioned stationary front will be undergoing
frontolysis (washing out), but combined with a little more upper
support there could be showers and thunderstorms over roughly the
same part of the CWA as Thursday.

Beyond Friday is where model solutions really begin to diverge.
Therefore rather than an exhaustive discussion of the differences
between models for each 12 hour period, will keep the discussion for
the remainder of the long term rather brief. Forecast is a blend of
the CRH init, the GFS, and the ECMWF with heavy leaning toward the
ECMWF.

Friday night precipitation chances may make their way NW-SE
across the CWA with the approach of a slow moving frontal system.
Long story short, probability of precipitation steadily increases
area wide with the approach and ultimate passage of the front on
Sunday. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this system
is a possibility Sunday night and Monday, especially the northeast
tow thirds of our CWA.

Temperatures through the period will generally top out in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Unfortunately, dew
points will also remain in the upper 60s to around 70, so relative
humidities will keep things a bit sticky here in the lower Ohio
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 605 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Maybe some convective debris high clouds through the evening. That`s
about it with cloud cover. Winds will go calm tonight. Kept with the
fog, LIFR vsby possibility at KCGI and KPAH, MVFR chance at KOWB and
KEVV late tonight. Seems reasonable based on cross over temps.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$











000
FXUS63 KPAH 252305
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
605 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A mid/upper high will continue to linger over the PAH forecast
area through mid week, with minimal coverage of diurnally-driven
showers and tstms. Although the lower trop is soupy, there are no
real triggers for convection in place today or Tue. However, on
Wed, as mid level shrtwv energy begins to impinge on the dominant
mid/upper high, and a sfc cold front approaches from the north,
there may be an increase in coverage of shower and tstm activity
for roughly the nrn third of the region. Scattered convective
activity may linger there into Wed night.

Sfc winds, though light, should remain predominantly out of the
east or ne through the short term period. This may help to limit
sfc dewpoints through Wed (the lower/mid 70s are still forecast). A
heat advisory will be continued through Tue afternoon, but not
extended at this time. However, the heat indices will probably
flirt with 100 on Wed in the wrn half of the region where there
may be less sunshine. Highs across the region are expected to be
slightly cooler than those on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Forecast confidence in the long term is relatively low due to
continued model disagreement.

The long term starts off with a stationary front lying NW-SE across
our CWA. The presence of the boundary combined with weak upper
support may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the northeast two thirds of our CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating/instability, models are showing Thursday night to be dry.

On Friday the aforementioned stationary front will be undergoing
frontolysis (washing out), but combined with a little more upper
support there could be showers and thunderstorms over roughly the
same part of the CWA as Thursday.

Beyond Friday is where model solutions really begin to diverge.
Therefore rather than an exhaustive discussion of the differences
between models for each 12 hour period, will keep the discussion for
the remainder of the long term rather brief. Forecast is a blend of
the CRH init, the GFS, and the ECMWF with heavy leaning toward the
ECMWF.

Friday night precipitation chances may make their way NW-SE
across the CWA with the approach of a slow moving frontal system.
Long story short, probability of precipitation steadily increases
area wide with the approach and ultimate passage of the front on
Sunday. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this system
is a possibility Sunday night and Monday, especially the northeast
tow thirds of our CWA.

Temperatures through the period will generally top out in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Unfortunately, dew
points will also remain in the upper 60s to around 70, so relative
humidities will keep things a bit sticky here in the lower Ohio
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 605 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Maybe some convective debris high clouds through the evening. That`s
about it with cloud cover. Winds will go calm tonight. Kept with the
fog, LIFR vsby possibility at KCGI and KPAH, MVFR chance at KOWB and
KEVV late tonight. Seems reasonable based on cross over temps.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$












000
FXUS63 KPAH 252024
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A mid/upper high will continue to linger over the PAH forecast
area through mid week, with minimal coverage of diurnally-driven
showers and tstms. Although the lower trop is soupy, there are no
real triggers for convection in place today or Tue. However, on
Wed, as mid level shrtwv energy begins to impinge on the dominant
mid/upper high, and a sfc cold front approaches from the north,
there may be an increase in coverage of shower and tstm activity
for roughly the nrn third of the region. Scattered convective
activity may linger there into Wed night.

Sfc winds, though light, should remain predominantly out of the
east or ne through the short term period. This may help to limit
sfc dewpoints through Wed (the lower/mid 70s are still forecast). A
heat advisory will be continued through Tue afternoon, but not
extended at this time. However, the heat indices will probably
flirt with 100 on Wed in the wrn half of the region where there
may be less sunshine. Highs across the region are expected to be
slightly cooler than those on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Forecast confidence in the long term is relatively low due to
continued model disagreement.

The long term starts off with a stationary front lying NW-SE across
our CWA. The presence of the boundary combined with weak upper
support may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the northeast two thirds of our CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating/instability, models are showing Thursday night to be dry.

On Friday the aforementioned stationary front will be undergoing
frontolysis (washing out), but combined with a little more upper
support there could be showers and thunderstorms over roughly the
same part of the CWA as Thursday.

Beyond Friday is where model solutions really begin to diverge.
Therefore rather than an exhaustive discussion of the differences
between models for each 12 hour period, will keep the discussion for
the remainder of the long term rather brief. Forecast is a blend of
the CRH init, the GFS, and the ECMWF with heavy leaning toward the
ECMWF.

Friday night precipitation chances may make their way NW-SE
across the CWA with the approach of a slow moving frontal system.
Long story short, probability of precipitation steadily increases
area wide with the approach and ultimate passage of the front on
Sunday. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this system
is a possibility Sunday night and Monday, especially the northeast
tow thirds of our CWA.

Temperatures through the period will generally top out in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Unfortunately, dew
points will also remain in the upper 60s to around 70, so relative
humidities will keep things a bit sticky here in the lower Ohio
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

With surface high pressure in control through the entire 18Z TAF
period, winds will be light and variable. A few cu are possible
today, and some thin cirrus will continue to stream over much of
the region. There is some chance of fog development again late
tonight at all TAF sites. Some LIFR vsbys are possible at KCGI/KPAH,
but confidence is not high whether they will occur or not.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB







000
FXUS63 KPAH 252024
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A mid/upper high will continue to linger over the PAH forecast
area through mid week, with minimal coverage of diurnally-driven
showers and tstms. Although the lower trop is soupy, there are no
real triggers for convection in place today or Tue. However, on
Wed, as mid level shrtwv energy begins to impinge on the dominant
mid/upper high, and a sfc cold front approaches from the north,
there may be an increase in coverage of shower and tstm activity
for roughly the nrn third of the region. Scattered convective
activity may linger there into Wed night.

Sfc winds, though light, should remain predominantly out of the
east or ne through the short term period. This may help to limit
sfc dewpoints through Wed (the lower/mid 70s are still forecast). A
heat advisory will be continued through Tue afternoon, but not
extended at this time. However, the heat indices will probably
flirt with 100 on Wed in the wrn half of the region where there
may be less sunshine. Highs across the region are expected to be
slightly cooler than those on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Forecast confidence in the long term is relatively low due to
continued model disagreement.

The long term starts off with a stationary front lying NW-SE across
our CWA. The presence of the boundary combined with weak upper
support may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the northeast two thirds of our CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating/instability, models are showing Thursday night to be dry.

On Friday the aforementioned stationary front will be undergoing
frontolysis (washing out), but combined with a little more upper
support there could be showers and thunderstorms over roughly the
same part of the CWA as Thursday.

Beyond Friday is where model solutions really begin to diverge.
Therefore rather than an exhaustive discussion of the differences
between models for each 12 hour period, will keep the discussion for
the remainder of the long term rather brief. Forecast is a blend of
the CRH init, the GFS, and the ECMWF with heavy leaning toward the
ECMWF.

Friday night precipitation chances may make their way NW-SE
across the CWA with the approach of a slow moving frontal system.
Long story short, probability of precipitation steadily increases
area wide with the approach and ultimate passage of the front on
Sunday. Wrap around precipitation on the back side of this system
is a possibility Sunday night and Monday, especially the northeast
tow thirds of our CWA.

Temperatures through the period will generally top out in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Unfortunately, dew
points will also remain in the upper 60s to around 70, so relative
humidities will keep things a bit sticky here in the lower Ohio
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

With surface high pressure in control through the entire 18Z TAF
period, winds will be light and variable. A few cu are possible
today, and some thin cirrus will continue to stream over much of
the region. There is some chance of fog development again late
tonight at all TAF sites. Some LIFR vsbys are possible at KCGI/KPAH,
but confidence is not high whether they will occur or not.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB








000
FXUS63 KPAH 251141
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper high will remain over top of the region through
Wednesday, and is not forecast to weaken much, if at all. However,
it is forecast to flatten out and become more east/west oriented,
as a storm system moves eastward into Ontario Canada by this
evening. This allows the surface ridge to build back to the west
across the four state region through tonight. The resulting
easterly low-level flow will advect slightly cooler and drier air
eastward.

Although this has been a consistent signal in the models for a few
days now, the models have had a hard time keeping up with the
high dewpoints across much of the area over the weekend. So, the
bottom line is that confidence is low in the temperature and
dewpoint trends through Wednesday.

Heat indices today are forecast to be lower throughout the area,
with most areas in the 100 to 105 range. The Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky is in the upper 90s, similar to what happened
yesterday. Considered removing a few counties in the southeast
from the Heat Advisory, but given the uncertainty, and the last 4
or 5 days of 100+ heat indices, will keep the Advisory in force
for the entire area.

Temperatures, dewpoints, and heat indices drop another degree or
two throughout the forecast area on Tuesday, but most areas are
still at or slightly above 100, which will support the Heat
Advisory. Will take a wait and see approach to the Heat Advisory
in the southeast today, and possibly cancel it there for Tuesday,
if they don`t get there today.

A little more cooling/drying is forecast for Wednesday, which will
generally take the entire area out of the triple digit heat
indices. Much of the area will be close, so a small forecast error
could result in the potential extension of the Heat Advisory into
Wednesday at least for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

As for PoPs, the 00Z NAM, NMM and ARW WRF runs generate isolated
convection over the Pennyrile this afternoon, so will add the
smallest of PoPs in that region today. NAM soundings support some
diurnal convection near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers on Tuesday, so likewise will have a small PoP in that
region.

The 00Z models seem to be in pretty good agreement in bringing a
backdoor cold front southward to near the I-64 corridor on
Wednesday, so will continue with the low chance PoPs up there in
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A transition to a more active progressive flow pattern is expected
during the long term. The blocking upper ridge over the Ohio Valley
will gradually retreat southward...allowing shortwave energy to
progress eastward across the Plains and eventually the Ohio Valley.
This will translate into a wetter pattern with less intense heat.

As far as the daily details...
For Wednesday night and Thursday...the 00z model suite is in good
agreement that a surface high over the Great Lakes region will push
a backdoor cold front southward into the Lower Ohio Valley on
Wednesday night. This boundary will stall in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley on Thursday. Some convection is likely to accompany this
front...though coverage will be limited by the weakening upper level
ridge. Forecast will contain slight chance to low chance pops.

For Friday into Saturday...the models begin to diverge with
respect to the eastward progress of a 500 mb shortwave from the
Plains. The gfs and its ensemble mean are still somewhat faster than
the ecmwf...but the differences are smaller than 24 hours ago. The
forecast will be slanted toward the slower ecmwf...so forecast pops
will remain in the slight chance to low chance range for Friday into
Saturday.

For Sunday...most guidance indicates the shortwave will be crossing
the Lower Ohio Valley. Forecast pops will be highest on Sunday...but
still only in the chance category due to the weakening nature of the
shortwave. The associated cold front is forecast to weaken or
dissipate as it reaches our area...which will limit surface
convergence and associated convection.

High temps through the period will be heavily dependent on
cloudiness. With the expectation of gradually increasing moisture
and cloudiness...the slight downward trend in highs shown by gfs mos
looks reasonable. High dew points will keep overnight lows on the
warm side.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 641 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

With surface high pressure in control through the entire 12Z TAF
period, winds will be light and variable. A few cu are possible
today, and some thin cirrus will continue to stream over much of
the region. Patchy ground fog developed over areas generally east
of the Mississippi River early this morning, and that should burn
off by 14Z. There is some chance of fog development again late
tonight, especially at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 251141
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper high will remain over top of the region through
Wednesday, and is not forecast to weaken much, if at all. However,
it is forecast to flatten out and become more east/west oriented,
as a storm system moves eastward into Ontario Canada by this
evening. This allows the surface ridge to build back to the west
across the four state region through tonight. The resulting
easterly low-level flow will advect slightly cooler and drier air
eastward.

Although this has been a consistent signal in the models for a few
days now, the models have had a hard time keeping up with the
high dewpoints across much of the area over the weekend. So, the
bottom line is that confidence is low in the temperature and
dewpoint trends through Wednesday.

Heat indices today are forecast to be lower throughout the area,
with most areas in the 100 to 105 range. The Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky is in the upper 90s, similar to what happened
yesterday. Considered removing a few counties in the southeast
from the Heat Advisory, but given the uncertainty, and the last 4
or 5 days of 100+ heat indices, will keep the Advisory in force
for the entire area.

Temperatures, dewpoints, and heat indices drop another degree or
two throughout the forecast area on Tuesday, but most areas are
still at or slightly above 100, which will support the Heat
Advisory. Will take a wait and see approach to the Heat Advisory
in the southeast today, and possibly cancel it there for Tuesday,
if they don`t get there today.

A little more cooling/drying is forecast for Wednesday, which will
generally take the entire area out of the triple digit heat
indices. Much of the area will be close, so a small forecast error
could result in the potential extension of the Heat Advisory into
Wednesday at least for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

As for PoPs, the 00Z NAM, NMM and ARW WRF runs generate isolated
convection over the Pennyrile this afternoon, so will add the
smallest of PoPs in that region today. NAM soundings support some
diurnal convection near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers on Tuesday, so likewise will have a small PoP in that
region.

The 00Z models seem to be in pretty good agreement in bringing a
backdoor cold front southward to near the I-64 corridor on
Wednesday, so will continue with the low chance PoPs up there in
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A transition to a more active progressive flow pattern is expected
during the long term. The blocking upper ridge over the Ohio Valley
will gradually retreat southward...allowing shortwave energy to
progress eastward across the Plains and eventually the Ohio Valley.
This will translate into a wetter pattern with less intense heat.

As far as the daily details...
For Wednesday night and Thursday...the 00z model suite is in good
agreement that a surface high over the Great Lakes region will push
a backdoor cold front southward into the Lower Ohio Valley on
Wednesday night. This boundary will stall in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley on Thursday. Some convection is likely to accompany this
front...though coverage will be limited by the weakening upper level
ridge. Forecast will contain slight chance to low chance pops.

For Friday into Saturday...the models begin to diverge with
respect to the eastward progress of a 500 mb shortwave from the
Plains. The gfs and its ensemble mean are still somewhat faster than
the ecmwf...but the differences are smaller than 24 hours ago. The
forecast will be slanted toward the slower ecmwf...so forecast pops
will remain in the slight chance to low chance range for Friday into
Saturday.

For Sunday...most guidance indicates the shortwave will be crossing
the Lower Ohio Valley. Forecast pops will be highest on Sunday...but
still only in the chance category due to the weakening nature of the
shortwave. The associated cold front is forecast to weaken or
dissipate as it reaches our area...which will limit surface
convergence and associated convection.

High temps through the period will be heavily dependent on
cloudiness. With the expectation of gradually increasing moisture
and cloudiness...the slight downward trend in highs shown by gfs mos
looks reasonable. High dew points will keep overnight lows on the
warm side.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 641 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

With surface high pressure in control through the entire 12Z TAF
period, winds will be light and variable. A few cu are possible
today, and some thin cirrus will continue to stream over much of
the region. Patchy ground fog developed over areas generally east
of the Mississippi River early this morning, and that should burn
off by 14Z. There is some chance of fog development again late
tonight, especially at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 250804
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper high will remain over top of the region through
Wednesday, and is not forecast to weaken much, if at all. However,
it is forecast to flatten out and become more east/west oriented,
as a storm system moves eastward into Ontario Canada by this
evening. This allows the surface ridge to build back to the west
across the four state region through tonight. The resulting
easterly low-level flow will advect slightly cooler and drier air
eastward.

Although this has been a consistent signal in the models for a few
days now, the models have had a hard time keeping up with the
high dewpoints across much of the area over the weekend. So, the
bottom line is that confidence is low in the temperature and
dewpoint trends through Wednesday.

Heat indices today are forecast to be lower throughout the area,
with most areas in the 100 to 105 range. The Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky is in the upper 90s, similar to what happened
yesterday. Considered removing a few counties in the southeast
from the Heat Advisory, but given the uncertainty, and the last 4
or 5 days of 100+ heat indices, will keep the Advisory in force
for the entire area.

Temperatures, dewpoints, and heat indices drop another degree or
two throughout the forecast area on Tuesday, but most areas are
still at or slightly above 100, which will support the Heat
Advisory. Will take a wait and see approach to the Heat Advisory
in the southeast today, and possibly cancel it there for Tuesday,
if they don`t get there today.

A little more cooling/drying is forecast for Wednesday, which will
generally take the entire area out of the triple digit heat
indices. Much of the area will be close, so a small forecast error
could result in the potential extension of the Heat Advisory into
Wednesday at least for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

As for PoPs, the 00Z NAM, NMM and ARW WRF runs generate isolated
convection over the Pennyrile this afternoon, so will add the
smallest of PoPs in that region today. NAM soundings support some
diurnal convection near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers on Tuesday, so likewise will have a small PoP in that
region.

The 00Z models seem to be in pretty good agreement in bringing a
backdoor cold front southward to near the I-64 corridor on
Wednesday, so will continue with the low chance PoPs up there in
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A transition to a more active progressive flow pattern is expected
during the long term. The blocking upper ridge over the Ohio Valley
will gradually retreat southward...allowing shortwave energy to
progress eastward across the Plains and eventually the Ohio Valley.
This will translate into a wetter pattern with less intense heat.

As far as the daily details...
For Wednesday night and Thursday...the 00z model suite is in good
agreement that a surface high over the Great Lakes region will push
a backdoor cold front southward into the Lower Ohio Valley on
Wednesday night. This boundary will stall in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley on Thursday. Some convection is likely to accompany this
front...though coverage will be limited by the weakening upper level
ridge. Forecast will contain slight chance to low chance pops.

For Friday into Saturday...the models begin to diverge with
respect to the eastward progress of a 500 mb shortwave from the
Plains. The gfs and its ensemble mean are still somewhat faster than
the ecmwf...but the differences are smaller than 24 hours ago. The
forecast will be slanted toward the slower ecmwf...so forecast pops
will remain in the slight chance to low chance range for Friday into
Saturday.

For Sunday...most guidance indicates the shortwave will be crossing
the Lower Ohio Valley. Forecast pops will be highest on Sunday...but
still only in the chance category due to the weakening nature of the
shortwave. The associated cold front is forecast to weaken or
dissipate as it reaches our area...which will limit surface
convergence and associated convection.

High temps through the period will be heavily dependent on
cloudiness. With the expectation of gradually increasing moisture
and cloudiness...the slight downward trend in highs shown by gfs mos
looks reasonable. High dew points will keep overnight lows on the
warm side.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Another quiet night on tap. MVFR fog may threaten the sites again
tonight...as the temp/dewpoint spread could be less than in
previous nights. Already seeing neighboring obs drop down into the
MVFR category as of this writing. Could see more diurnal cu on
Monday with bases in the 2500-3500 ft range, much like what was
seen on Sunday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 250804
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper high will remain over top of the region through
Wednesday, and is not forecast to weaken much, if at all. However,
it is forecast to flatten out and become more east/west oriented,
as a storm system moves eastward into Ontario Canada by this
evening. This allows the surface ridge to build back to the west
across the four state region through tonight. The resulting
easterly low-level flow will advect slightly cooler and drier air
eastward.

Although this has been a consistent signal in the models for a few
days now, the models have had a hard time keeping up with the
high dewpoints across much of the area over the weekend. So, the
bottom line is that confidence is low in the temperature and
dewpoint trends through Wednesday.

Heat indices today are forecast to be lower throughout the area,
with most areas in the 100 to 105 range. The Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky is in the upper 90s, similar to what happened
yesterday. Considered removing a few counties in the southeast
from the Heat Advisory, but given the uncertainty, and the last 4
or 5 days of 100+ heat indices, will keep the Advisory in force
for the entire area.

Temperatures, dewpoints, and heat indices drop another degree or
two throughout the forecast area on Tuesday, but most areas are
still at or slightly above 100, which will support the Heat
Advisory. Will take a wait and see approach to the Heat Advisory
in the southeast today, and possibly cancel it there for Tuesday,
if they don`t get there today.

A little more cooling/drying is forecast for Wednesday, which will
generally take the entire area out of the triple digit heat
indices. Much of the area will be close, so a small forecast error
could result in the potential extension of the Heat Advisory into
Wednesday at least for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

As for PoPs, the 00Z NAM, NMM and ARW WRF runs generate isolated
convection over the Pennyrile this afternoon, so will add the
smallest of PoPs in that region today. NAM soundings support some
diurnal convection near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers on Tuesday, so likewise will have a small PoP in that
region.

The 00Z models seem to be in pretty good agreement in bringing a
backdoor cold front southward to near the I-64 corridor on
Wednesday, so will continue with the low chance PoPs up there in
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A transition to a more active progressive flow pattern is expected
during the long term. The blocking upper ridge over the Ohio Valley
will gradually retreat southward...allowing shortwave energy to
progress eastward across the Plains and eventually the Ohio Valley.
This will translate into a wetter pattern with less intense heat.

As far as the daily details...
For Wednesday night and Thursday...the 00z model suite is in good
agreement that a surface high over the Great Lakes region will push
a backdoor cold front southward into the Lower Ohio Valley on
Wednesday night. This boundary will stall in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley on Thursday. Some convection is likely to accompany this
front...though coverage will be limited by the weakening upper level
ridge. Forecast will contain slight chance to low chance pops.

For Friday into Saturday...the models begin to diverge with
respect to the eastward progress of a 500 mb shortwave from the
Plains. The gfs and its ensemble mean are still somewhat faster than
the ecmwf...but the differences are smaller than 24 hours ago. The
forecast will be slanted toward the slower ecmwf...so forecast pops
will remain in the slight chance to low chance range for Friday into
Saturday.

For Sunday...most guidance indicates the shortwave will be crossing
the Lower Ohio Valley. Forecast pops will be highest on Sunday...but
still only in the chance category due to the weakening nature of the
shortwave. The associated cold front is forecast to weaken or
dissipate as it reaches our area...which will limit surface
convergence and associated convection.

High temps through the period will be heavily dependent on
cloudiness. With the expectation of gradually increasing moisture
and cloudiness...the slight downward trend in highs shown by gfs mos
looks reasonable. High dew points will keep overnight lows on the
warm side.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Another quiet night on tap. MVFR fog may threaten the sites again
tonight...as the temp/dewpoint spread could be less than in
previous nights. Already seeing neighboring obs drop down into the
MVFR category as of this writing. Could see more diurnal cu on
Monday with bases in the 2500-3500 ft range, much like what was
seen on Sunday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 250437
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Excessive heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday. Daily
heat index values will range toward 105, perhaps a couple degrees
higher at their peak, and a couple degrees lower at their minimum,
over the course of the next 48 hours. The Heat Advisory therefore
looks good to continue through its set expiration time of 7 pm
Tuesday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the heat of
the afternoon, but believe Pops are low enough during this time
frame, with the High pressure circulating nearly overhead, to make
them silent Pops. Will monitor radar closely and change that,
if/when needed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions were not all that
different today in the extended. However, the ECMWF mean did
continue to show a slightly slower solution with the movement of a
steadily ewd-moving mid level trof expected to eventually enter the
central Plains, then approach the PAH forecast area. The operational
GFS continues to be more progressive with the system than the ECMWF
or the GEM.

Nrn stream mid level shrtwv energy is expected to move through the
Great Lakes late Wed. As a result, shower and tstm development will
be primarily in the nrn third of the region Wed. The edge of a dome
of high sfc pressure may enter the PAH forecast area from the ne
early Thu, providing focus for shower and tstm development across a
greater part of our region. The sfc frontal boundary should start
moving back toward the ne early Fri as the mid level ridge builds
back into the region, continuing a similar pattern of convection,
with the most limited PoPs continuing to be west of the MS River.

Sat may be dry at many locations as the region will be under general
warm swrly flow aloft and srly low level flow, with no real focusing
mechanism. Sunday looks pretty wet attm as the mid level trof, in
the process of shearing out, should be nearby. It is still a
question whether a sfc cold front will make it into our region by
Day 7.

As overall mid level heights fall during the extended period, temp
trends are beginning to show a season-appropriate slight cool-down
with time. No heat headlines are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Another quiet night on tap. MVFR fog may threaten the sites again
tonight...as the temp/dewpoint spread could be less than in
previous nights. Already seeing neighboring obs drop down into the
MVFR category as of this writing. Could see more diurnal cu on
Monday with bases in the 2500-3500 ft range, much like what was
seen on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 250437
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Excessive heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday. Daily
heat index values will range toward 105, perhaps a couple degrees
higher at their peak, and a couple degrees lower at their minimum,
over the course of the next 48 hours. The Heat Advisory therefore
looks good to continue through its set expiration time of 7 pm
Tuesday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the heat of
the afternoon, but believe Pops are low enough during this time
frame, with the High pressure circulating nearly overhead, to make
them silent Pops. Will monitor radar closely and change that,
if/when needed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions were not all that
different today in the extended. However, the ECMWF mean did
continue to show a slightly slower solution with the movement of a
steadily ewd-moving mid level trof expected to eventually enter the
central Plains, then approach the PAH forecast area. The operational
GFS continues to be more progressive with the system than the ECMWF
or the GEM.

Nrn stream mid level shrtwv energy is expected to move through the
Great Lakes late Wed. As a result, shower and tstm development will
be primarily in the nrn third of the region Wed. The edge of a dome
of high sfc pressure may enter the PAH forecast area from the ne
early Thu, providing focus for shower and tstm development across a
greater part of our region. The sfc frontal boundary should start
moving back toward the ne early Fri as the mid level ridge builds
back into the region, continuing a similar pattern of convection,
with the most limited PoPs continuing to be west of the MS River.

Sat may be dry at many locations as the region will be under general
warm swrly flow aloft and srly low level flow, with no real focusing
mechanism. Sunday looks pretty wet attm as the mid level trof, in
the process of shearing out, should be nearby. It is still a
question whether a sfc cold front will make it into our region by
Day 7.

As overall mid level heights fall during the extended period, temp
trends are beginning to show a season-appropriate slight cool-down
with time. No heat headlines are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Another quiet night on tap. MVFR fog may threaten the sites again
tonight...as the temp/dewpoint spread could be less than in
previous nights. Already seeing neighboring obs drop down into the
MVFR category as of this writing. Could see more diurnal cu on
Monday with bases in the 2500-3500 ft range, much like what was
seen on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KPAH 242319
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Excessive heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday. Daily
heat index values will range toward 105, perhaps a couple degrees
higher at their peak, and a couple degrees lower at their minimum,
over the course of the next 48 hours. The Heat Advisory therefore
looks good to continue through its set expiration time of 7 pm
Tuesday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the heat of
the afternoon, but believe Pops are low enough during this time
frame, with the High pressure circulating nearly overhead, to make
them silent Pops. Will monitor radar closely and change that,
if/when needed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions were not all that
different today in the extended. However, the ECMWF mean did
continue to show a slightly slower solution with the movement of a
steadily ewd-moving mid level trof expected to eventually enter the
central Plains, then approach the PAH forecast area. The operational
GFS continues to be more progressive with the system than the ECMWF
or the GEM.

Nrn stream mid level shrtwv energy is expected to move through the
Great Lakes late Wed. As a result, shower and tstm development will
be primarily in the nrn third of the region Wed. The edge of a dome
of high sfc pressure may enter the PAH forecast area from the ne
early Thu, providing focus for shower and tstm development across a
greater part of our region. The sfc frontal boundary should start
moving back toward the ne early Fri as the mid level ridge builds
back into the region, continuing a similar pattern of convection,
with the most limited PoPs continuing to be west of the MS River.

Sat may be dry at many locations as the region will be under general
warm swrly flow aloft and srly low level flow, with no real focusing
mechanism. Sunday looks pretty wet attm as the mid level trof, in
the process of shearing out, should be nearby. It is still a
question whether a sfc cold front will make it into our region by
Day 7.

As overall mid level heights fall during the extended period, temp
trends are beginning to show a season-appropriate slight cool-down
with time. No heat headlines are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Main areas of convection have stayed to the south of the
terminals. Other than very isolated storms, expect the terminals
to remain rain free for the next 24 hrs. MVFR fog may threaten the
sites again tonight. Could see more diurnal cu with bases in the
2500-3500 ft range.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KPAH 242319
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Excessive heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday. Daily
heat index values will range toward 105, perhaps a couple degrees
higher at their peak, and a couple degrees lower at their minimum,
over the course of the next 48 hours. The Heat Advisory therefore
looks good to continue through its set expiration time of 7 pm
Tuesday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the heat of
the afternoon, but believe Pops are low enough during this time
frame, with the High pressure circulating nearly overhead, to make
them silent Pops. Will monitor radar closely and change that,
if/when needed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions were not all that
different today in the extended. However, the ECMWF mean did
continue to show a slightly slower solution with the movement of a
steadily ewd-moving mid level trof expected to eventually enter the
central Plains, then approach the PAH forecast area. The operational
GFS continues to be more progressive with the system than the ECMWF
or the GEM.

Nrn stream mid level shrtwv energy is expected to move through the
Great Lakes late Wed. As a result, shower and tstm development will
be primarily in the nrn third of the region Wed. The edge of a dome
of high sfc pressure may enter the PAH forecast area from the ne
early Thu, providing focus for shower and tstm development across a
greater part of our region. The sfc frontal boundary should start
moving back toward the ne early Fri as the mid level ridge builds
back into the region, continuing a similar pattern of convection,
with the most limited PoPs continuing to be west of the MS River.

Sat may be dry at many locations as the region will be under general
warm swrly flow aloft and srly low level flow, with no real focusing
mechanism. Sunday looks pretty wet attm as the mid level trof, in
the process of shearing out, should be nearby. It is still a
question whether a sfc cold front will make it into our region by
Day 7.

As overall mid level heights fall during the extended period, temp
trends are beginning to show a season-appropriate slight cool-down
with time. No heat headlines are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Main areas of convection have stayed to the south of the
terminals. Other than very isolated storms, expect the terminals
to remain rain free for the next 24 hrs. MVFR fog may threaten the
sites again tonight. Could see more diurnal cu with bases in the
2500-3500 ft range.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$







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