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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241715
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE
AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.S. A S/WV WILL EVOLVE
AND HEAD NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST...LOWER EAST GIVEN THE NE TRAJECTORY TO
CONVECTION. COORD WITH MEG AND FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCH
HEADLINES FOR FLOODING. THIS MAY NEED A REVISIT ON THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD THERE BE AN UPTICK IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS. SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MEMORIAL DAY
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES AGAIN FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER S/WV EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. ALL OF THIS ACTION DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL ENERGY...
WITHOUT A SFC/LOW TROP BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERSISTENT LOW TROP MOIST TRANSPORT VIA A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET. AGAIN WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING FOR
THE EXTENDED.

WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO NEAR 2K J/KG/2 THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PW RANGE FROM 1 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WITH K INDICES LOWEST MID 20S AT TIMES BUT MOST TIMES
ABOVE 30C. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG NO DOUBT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT THE INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD A WARNING OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING OF COURSE. A COLLAPSE OF A STORM COULD YIELD A WIND
THREAT...AGAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL. BY THE WEEKEND THE FASTER GFS
TRIES TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THATS
NOT TOO BAD OF A DISCREPANCY THAT FAR OUT. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
NEAR SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS. WITH RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE
VFR...GENERALLY AROUND 5K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FAIRLY COMMON.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE
LEADING EDGE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS IN THE 02Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS. THE STORMS WILL THEN CROSS THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS IN
THE 05Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE
IN STORMS...BUT NOT OF SUFFICIENT DURATION TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

FOLLOWING THE STORMS...SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 241715
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE
AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.S. A S/WV WILL EVOLVE
AND HEAD NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST...LOWER EAST GIVEN THE NE TRAJECTORY TO
CONVECTION. COORD WITH MEG AND FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCH
HEADLINES FOR FLOODING. THIS MAY NEED A REVISIT ON THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD THERE BE AN UPTICK IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS. SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MEMORIAL DAY
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES AGAIN FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER S/WV EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. ALL OF THIS ACTION DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL ENERGY...
WITHOUT A SFC/LOW TROP BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERSISTENT LOW TROP MOIST TRANSPORT VIA A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET. AGAIN WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING FOR
THE EXTENDED.

WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO NEAR 2K J/KG/2 THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PW RANGE FROM 1 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WITH K INDICES LOWEST MID 20S AT TIMES BUT MOST TIMES
ABOVE 30C. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG NO DOUBT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT THE INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD A WARNING OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING OF COURSE. A COLLAPSE OF A STORM COULD YIELD A WIND
THREAT...AGAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL. BY THE WEEKEND THE FASTER GFS
TRIES TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THATS
NOT TOO BAD OF A DISCREPANCY THAT FAR OUT. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
NEAR SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS. WITH RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE
VFR...GENERALLY AROUND 5K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FAIRLY COMMON.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE
LEADING EDGE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS IN THE 02Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS. THE STORMS WILL THEN CROSS THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS IN
THE 05Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE
IN STORMS...BUT NOT OF SUFFICIENT DURATION TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

FOLLOWING THE STORMS...SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 240727
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE
AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.S. A S/WV WILL EVOLVE
AND HEAD NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST...LOWER EAST GIVEN THE NE TRAJECTORY TO
CONVECTION. COORD WITH MEG AND FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCH
HEADLINES FOR FLOODING. THIS MAY NEED A REVISIT ON THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD THERE BE AN UPTICK IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS. SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MEMORIAL DAY
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES AGAIN FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER S/WV EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. ALL OF THIS ACTION DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL ENERGY...
WITHOUT A SFC/LOW TROP BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERSISTENT LOW TROP MOIST TRANSPORT VIA A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET. AGAIN WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING FOR
THE EXTENDED.

WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO NEAR 2K J/KG/2 THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PW RANGE FROM 1 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WITH K INDICES LOWEST MID 20S AT TIMES BUT MOST TIMES
ABOVE 30C. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG NO DOUBT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT THE INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD A WARNING OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING OF COURSE. A COLLAPSE OF A STORM COULD YIELD A WIND
THREAT...AGAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL. BY THE WEEKEND THE FASTER GFS
TRIES TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THATS
NOT TOO BAD OF A DISCREPANCY THAT FAR OUT. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
NEAR SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS. WITH RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR HIGH/MID CLOUD TO MVFR BY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SSE WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMVN-
KCEY LINE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 240727
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE
AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.S. A S/WV WILL EVOLVE
AND HEAD NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST...LOWER EAST GIVEN THE NE TRAJECTORY TO
CONVECTION. COORD WITH MEG AND FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCH
HEADLINES FOR FLOODING. THIS MAY NEED A REVISIT ON THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD THERE BE AN UPTICK IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS. SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MEMORIAL DAY
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES AGAIN FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER S/WV EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. ALL OF THIS ACTION DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL ENERGY...
WITHOUT A SFC/LOW TROP BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERSISTENT LOW TROP MOIST TRANSPORT VIA A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET. AGAIN WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING FOR
THE EXTENDED.

WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO NEAR 2K J/KG/2 THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PW RANGE FROM 1 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WITH K INDICES LOWEST MID 20S AT TIMES BUT MOST TIMES
ABOVE 30C. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG NO DOUBT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT THE INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD A WARNING OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING OF COURSE. A COLLAPSE OF A STORM COULD YIELD A WIND
THREAT...AGAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL. BY THE WEEKEND THE FASTER GFS
TRIES TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THATS
NOT TOO BAD OF A DISCREPANCY THAT FAR OUT. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
NEAR SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS. WITH RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR HIGH/MID CLOUD TO MVFR BY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SSE WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMVN-
KCEY LINE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 240727
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE
AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.S. A S/WV WILL EVOLVE
AND HEAD NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST...LOWER EAST GIVEN THE NE TRAJECTORY TO
CONVECTION. COORD WITH MEG AND FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCH
HEADLINES FOR FLOODING. THIS MAY NEED A REVISIT ON THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD THERE BE AN UPTICK IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS. SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MEMORIAL DAY
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES AGAIN FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER S/WV EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. ALL OF THIS ACTION DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL ENERGY...
WITHOUT A SFC/LOW TROP BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERSISTENT LOW TROP MOIST TRANSPORT VIA A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET. AGAIN WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING FOR
THE EXTENDED.

WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO NEAR 2K J/KG/2 THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PW RANGE FROM 1 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WITH K INDICES LOWEST MID 20S AT TIMES BUT MOST TIMES
ABOVE 30C. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG NO DOUBT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT THE INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD A WARNING OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING OF COURSE. A COLLAPSE OF A STORM COULD YIELD A WIND
THREAT...AGAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL. BY THE WEEKEND THE FASTER GFS
TRIES TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THATS
NOT TOO BAD OF A DISCREPANCY THAT FAR OUT. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
NEAR SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS. WITH RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR HIGH/MID CLOUD TO MVFR BY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SSE WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMVN-
KCEY LINE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 240727
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE
AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.S. A S/WV WILL EVOLVE
AND HEAD NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST...LOWER EAST GIVEN THE NE TRAJECTORY TO
CONVECTION. COORD WITH MEG AND FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCH
HEADLINES FOR FLOODING. THIS MAY NEED A REVISIT ON THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD THERE BE AN UPTICK IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS. SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MEMORIAL DAY
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES AGAIN FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER S/WV EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. ALL OF THIS ACTION DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL ENERGY...
WITHOUT A SFC/LOW TROP BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERSISTENT LOW TROP MOIST TRANSPORT VIA A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET. AGAIN WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING FOR
THE EXTENDED.

WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO NEAR 2K J/KG/2 THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PW RANGE FROM 1 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WITH K INDICES LOWEST MID 20S AT TIMES BUT MOST TIMES
ABOVE 30C. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG NO DOUBT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT THE INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD A WARNING OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING OF COURSE. A COLLAPSE OF A STORM COULD YIELD A WIND
THREAT...AGAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL. BY THE WEEKEND THE FASTER GFS
TRIES TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THATS
NOT TOO BAD OF A DISCREPANCY THAT FAR OUT. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
NEAR SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS. WITH RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR HIGH/MID CLOUD TO MVFR BY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SSE WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMVN-
KCEY LINE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 232242
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EXCEPT FOR THE OZARK FOOTHILLS...THERE WAS LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...COURTESY OF A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WAS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF KPOF. THE HRRR
QPF AND DEEP-LAYER RH FORECASTS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED NORTHEAST...STAYING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KCGI. WILL
HAVE SMALL POPS IN PARTS OF SE MISSOURI THROUGH 00Z.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS 850 MB WINDS VEER
INTO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. AS A RESULT...SOME WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF SE
MISSOURI LATER ON TONIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY (15 MPH SUSTAINED)...WHICH LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO
ISSUE. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR
HIGH TEMPS AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WIND. EXPECT ENOUGH SUN TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. IN
THAT AREA...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT. POPS WILL TAPER DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN SW INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER WET...AS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
INDICATING FOR A WHILE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MOISTURE-LADEN
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. A
RATHER STRONG BUT NARROW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS /NAM...NMM...ARW/ IS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SE
MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS
CORRECT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE AT OR NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THEY WEAKEN WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY.

ON MONDAY...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THERE WILL
BE A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOIST
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION MONDAY...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A
RELATIVELY COOL AND CLOUDY FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80 IN
ALL AREAS ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SURGE
NORTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LADEN WITH MOISTURE. STORM TOTAL
QPF SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST AN INCH AFTER BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE
ACCOUNTED FOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THE WIND FIELDS
WILL BE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BY WEEKS END AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...BUT
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS THAT WELL IN HAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT DOES SO...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IN ABUNDANCE JUST UPSTREAM...WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND
AFFECT THE TERMINALS. THE DEEPER SEEDED MOISTURE WILL EVEN WORK
INTO KCGI AND IMPACT KPAH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED MVFR BASES AND LOWER VFR CIGS. FURTHER EAST...THE
RIDGE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS GENERALLY AOA 10K
FT AGL. VICINITY SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY LOWER CIGS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FURTHER WEST (KCGI). SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 232016
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EXCEPT FOR THE OZARK FOOTHILLS...THERE WAS LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...COURTESY OF A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WAS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF KPOF. THE HRRR
QPF AND DEEP-LAYER RH FORECASTS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED NORTHEAST...STAYING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KCGI. WILL
HAVE SMALL POPS IN PARTS OF SE MISSOURI THROUGH 00Z.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS 850 MB WINDS VEER
INTO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. AS A RESULT...SOME WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF SE
MISSOURI LATER ON TONIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY (15 MPH SUSTAINED)...WHICH LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO
ISSUE. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR
HIGH TEMPS AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WIND. EXPECT ENOUGH SUN TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. IN
THAT AREA...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT. POPS WILL TAPER DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN SW INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER WET...AS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
INDICATING FOR A WHILE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MOISTURE-LADEN
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. A
RATHER STRONG BUT NARROW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS /NAM...NMM...ARW/ IS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SE
MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS
CORRECT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE AT OR NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THEY WEAKEN WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY.

ON MONDAY...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THERE WILL
BE A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOIST
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION MONDAY...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A
RELATIVELY COOL AND CLOUDY FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80 IN
ALL AREAS ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SURGE
NORTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LADEN WITH MOISTURE. STORM TOTAL
QPF SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST AN INCH AFTER BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE
ACCOUNTED FOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THE WIND FIELDS
WILL BE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BY WEEKS END AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...BUT
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS THAT WELL IN HAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR MODEL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS 500 MB RIDGING SHARPENS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS...CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 232016
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EXCEPT FOR THE OZARK FOOTHILLS...THERE WAS LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...COURTESY OF A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WAS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF KPOF. THE HRRR
QPF AND DEEP-LAYER RH FORECASTS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED NORTHEAST...STAYING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KCGI. WILL
HAVE SMALL POPS IN PARTS OF SE MISSOURI THROUGH 00Z.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS 850 MB WINDS VEER
INTO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. AS A RESULT...SOME WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF SE
MISSOURI LATER ON TONIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY (15 MPH SUSTAINED)...WHICH LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO
ISSUE. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR
HIGH TEMPS AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WIND. EXPECT ENOUGH SUN TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. IN
THAT AREA...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT. POPS WILL TAPER DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN SW INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER WET...AS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
INDICATING FOR A WHILE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MOISTURE-LADEN
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. A
RATHER STRONG BUT NARROW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS /NAM...NMM...ARW/ IS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SE
MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS
CORRECT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE AT OR NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THEY WEAKEN WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY.

ON MONDAY...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THERE WILL
BE A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOIST
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION MONDAY...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A
RELATIVELY COOL AND CLOUDY FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80 IN
ALL AREAS ON MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SURGE
NORTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LADEN WITH MOISTURE. STORM TOTAL
QPF SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST AN INCH AFTER BOTH SHORTWAVES ARE
ACCOUNTED FOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THE WIND FIELDS
WILL BE DETERIORATING THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BY WEEKS END AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...BUT
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS THAT WELL IN HAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR MODEL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS 500 MB RIDGING SHARPENS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS...CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231657
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR MODEL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS 500 MB RIDGING SHARPENS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS...CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 231657
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR MODEL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS 500 MB RIDGING SHARPENS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS...CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231657
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR MODEL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS 500 MB RIDGING SHARPENS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS...CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 231657
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR MODEL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DRY UP AS 500 MB RIDGING SHARPENS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. OTHER
THAN SOME SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS...CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 230912
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATE IS FOR THE AVIATION SECTION. ALSO ADDED SOME SPRINKLES INTO
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA PER RETURNS ON KPAH/KVWX. MODELS NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL. SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
310K...700-500MB WAA AND MOISTURE PER THE RAP MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SE
WINDS THE RULE. DERIVED CU RULE OFF THE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IF
ANY LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 230912
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATE IS FOR THE AVIATION SECTION. ALSO ADDED SOME SPRINKLES INTO
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA PER RETURNS ON KPAH/KVWX. MODELS NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL. SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
310K...700-500MB WAA AND MOISTURE PER THE RAP MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SE
WINDS THE RULE. DERIVED CU RULE OFF THE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IF
ANY LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 230645
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TOPPING THE PREVAILING RIDGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 230645
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TOPPING THE PREVAILING RIDGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 230645
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TOPPING THE PREVAILING RIDGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 222217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TO SEASONAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST, MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER. WE
MAY SEE A LITTLE PRECIP IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE A PAH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES TO LIKELY CHANCES WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WELL...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A RAIN SOAKED MEMORIAL DAY
SHAPING UP FOR OUR AREA. MID LVL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EJECTING NE
MONDAY MORNING WITHIN DEEP...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH THERE SEEMS
TO BE LITTLE SFC FOCUS...THE DEEP CONVEYER BELT OF
MOISTURE...MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE MID LEVEL TRIGGER
SHOULD SUFFICE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
EXPECTED PW VALUES...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WELL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. THERE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A SECOND H50 SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT NE ON TUESDAY AND COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS MAY PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THOUGH.

ONCE WE GET THE SECOND SHORT WAVE OUT OF HERE TUE NIGHT...IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THINGS MAY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AS WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE WLY AND H50 HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN FACT...COULD SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS OF
THE SEASON AS WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE HEAT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TOPPING THE PREVAILING RIDGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 222217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TO SEASONAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST, MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER. WE
MAY SEE A LITTLE PRECIP IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE A PAH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES TO LIKELY CHANCES WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WELL...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A RAIN SOAKED MEMORIAL DAY
SHAPING UP FOR OUR AREA. MID LVL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EJECTING NE
MONDAY MORNING WITHIN DEEP...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH THERE SEEMS
TO BE LITTLE SFC FOCUS...THE DEEP CONVEYER BELT OF
MOISTURE...MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE MID LEVEL TRIGGER
SHOULD SUFFICE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
EXPECTED PW VALUES...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WELL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. THERE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A SECOND H50 SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT NE ON TUESDAY AND COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS MAY PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THOUGH.

ONCE WE GET THE SECOND SHORT WAVE OUT OF HERE TUE NIGHT...IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THINGS MAY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AS WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE WLY AND H50 HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN FACT...COULD SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS OF
THE SEASON AS WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE HEAT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TOPPING THE PREVAILING RIDGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 222000
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TO SEASONAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST, MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER. WE
MAY SEE A LITTLE PRECIP IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE A PAH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES TO LIKELY CHANCES WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WELL...ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A RAIN SOAKED MEMORIAL DAY
SHAPING UP FOR OUR AREA. MID LVL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EJECTING NE
MONDAY MORNING WITHIN DEEP...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH THERE SEEMS
TO BE LITTLE SFC FOCUS...THE DEEP CONVEYER BELT OF
MOISTURE...MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE MID LEVEL TRIGGER
SHOULD SUFFICE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
EXPECTED PW VALUES...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WELL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. THERE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A SECOND H50 SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT NE ON TUESDAY AND COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS MAY PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THOUGH.

ONCE WE GET THE SECOND SHORT WAVE OUT OF HERE TUE NIGHT...IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THINGS MAY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT AS WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE WLY AND H50 HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD NE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN FACT...COULD SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS OF
THE SEASON AS WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE HEAT AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY JUST
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 221103
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
603 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TREND FOR THE DOMINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY ACROSS THE WFO PAH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING, THE SIGNAL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
BY SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM
RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS
SERVING AS THE GENESIS POINT FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
AND THE EVENTUAL IMPINGING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOURCE
REGION FOR VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY, IT WILL TAP INTO AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO WILL SET UP A WEST TO EAST POP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, AS A MORE UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE COMES INTO PLAY IN THE WEST UNDER THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE
THE WESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORED
ZONE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS AREA ON SUNDAY.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN 1/2
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA MAY PLAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY INDUCED AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. THERE MAY BE A MIX
OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL... WITH SOME MULTICELL STORMS FURTHER WEST
WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND OUTFLOW MERGERS
SUPPORTING RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE KEY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
0-3/0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS PRETTY MEAGER...AROUND
25 KNOTS OR LESS.

DESPITE ADJUSTING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD THIS WEEK, MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVATIONS.
TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE WARM BIAS...BUT STILL MAY BE TOO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RESPECTABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
72 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S. IS
EXPECTED...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WEST 1/2
OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND RESULTS IN A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE
MOS...AND EXISTING NUMBERS WERE USED FOR TEMPS.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS. BUT AGAIN...TO OFFER
ANY DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER VS. LOWER POP VALUES IS NOT
ATTAINABLE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT (ECMWF AREA WIDE...GFS NOW HIGHER POPS
EAST VS. WEST 2/3 OF THE AREA). BEST POPS SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN RISE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL S/WV FORECAST TO EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW GREATER RESOLUTION WITH AND EMPHASIS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
MEANS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE TO THE SAME DEGREE. THEREFORE OUR
CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH...FORECAST MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS BUT NOTHING HIGHER FOR NOW. WE
BELIEVE THE BLEND SUITE WEIGHTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE OFFERS TOO MUCH
DETAIL AND OCCASIONALLY TOO HIGH POPS FOR SUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND JUST HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 221103
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
603 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TREND FOR THE DOMINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY ACROSS THE WFO PAH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING, THE SIGNAL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
BY SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM
RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS
SERVING AS THE GENESIS POINT FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
AND THE EVENTUAL IMPINGING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOURCE
REGION FOR VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY, IT WILL TAP INTO AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO WILL SET UP A WEST TO EAST POP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, AS A MORE UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE COMES INTO PLAY IN THE WEST UNDER THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE
THE WESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORED
ZONE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS AREA ON SUNDAY.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN 1/2
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA MAY PLAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY INDUCED AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. THERE MAY BE A MIX
OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL... WITH SOME MULTICELL STORMS FURTHER WEST
WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND OUTFLOW MERGERS
SUPPORTING RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE KEY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
0-3/0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS PRETTY MEAGER...AROUND
25 KNOTS OR LESS.

DESPITE ADJUSTING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD THIS WEEK, MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVATIONS.
TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE WARM BIAS...BUT STILL MAY BE TOO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RESPECTABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
72 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S. IS
EXPECTED...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WEST 1/2
OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND RESULTS IN A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE
MOS...AND EXISTING NUMBERS WERE USED FOR TEMPS.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS. BUT AGAIN...TO OFFER
ANY DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER VS. LOWER POP VALUES IS NOT
ATTAINABLE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT (ECMWF AREA WIDE...GFS NOW HIGHER POPS
EAST VS. WEST 2/3 OF THE AREA). BEST POPS SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN RISE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL S/WV FORECAST TO EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW GREATER RESOLUTION WITH AND EMPHASIS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
MEANS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE TO THE SAME DEGREE. THEREFORE OUR
CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH...FORECAST MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS BUT NOTHING HIGHER FOR NOW. WE
BELIEVE THE BLEND SUITE WEIGHTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE OFFERS TOO MUCH
DETAIL AND OCCASIONALLY TOO HIGH POPS FOR SUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND JUST HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 220810 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TREND FOR THE DOMINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY ACROSS THE WFO PAH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING, THE SIGNAL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
BY SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM
RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS
SERVING AS THE GENESIS POINT FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
AND THE EVENTUAL IMPINGING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOURCE
REGION FOR VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY, IT WILL TAP INTO AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO WILL SET UP A WEST TO EAST POP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, AS A MORE UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE COMES INTO PLAY IN THE WEST UNDER THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE
THE WESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORED
ZONE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS AREA ON SUNDAY.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN 1/2
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA MAY PLAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY INDUCED AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. THERE MAY BE A MIX
OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL... WITH SOME MULTICELL STORMS FURTHER WEST
WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND OUTFLOW MERGERS
SUPPORTING RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE KEY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
0-3/0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS PRETTY MEAGER...AROUND
25 KNOTS OR LESS.

DESPITE ADJUSTING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD THIS WEEK, MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVATIONS.
TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE WARM BIAS...BUT STILL MAY BE TOO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RESPECTABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
72 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S. IS
EXPECTED...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WEST 1/2
OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND RESULTS IN A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE
MOS...AND EXISTING NUMBERS WERE USED FOR TEMPS.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS. BUT AGAIN...TO OFFER
ANY DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER VS. LOWER POP VALUES IS NOT
ATTAINABLE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT (ECMWF AREA WIDE...GFS NOW HIGHER POPS
EAST VS. WEST 2/3 OF THE AREA). BEST POPS SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN RISE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL S/WV FORECAST TO EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW GREATER RESOLUTION WITH AND EMPHASIS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
MEANS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE TO THE SAME DEGREE. THEREFORE OUR
CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH...FORECAST MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS BUT NOTHING HIGHER FOR NOW. WE
BELIEVE THE BLEND SUITE WEIGHTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE OFFERS TOO MUCH
DETAIL AND OCCASIONALLY TOO HIGH POPS FOR SUCH UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 220810 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TREND FOR THE DOMINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY ACROSS THE WFO PAH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING, THE SIGNAL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
BY SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM
RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS
SERVING AS THE GENESIS POINT FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
AND THE EVENTUAL IMPINGING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOURCE
REGION FOR VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY, IT WILL TAP INTO AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO WILL SET UP A WEST TO EAST POP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, AS A MORE UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE COMES INTO PLAY IN THE WEST UNDER THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE
THE WESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORED
ZONE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS AREA ON SUNDAY.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN 1/2
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA MAY PLAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY INDUCED AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. THERE MAY BE A MIX
OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL... WITH SOME MULTICELL STORMS FURTHER WEST
WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND OUTFLOW MERGERS
SUPPORTING RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE KEY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
0-3/0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS PRETTY MEAGER...AROUND
25 KNOTS OR LESS.

DESPITE ADJUSTING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD THIS WEEK, MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVATIONS.
TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE WARM BIAS...BUT STILL MAY BE TOO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RESPECTABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
72 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S. IS
EXPECTED...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WEST 1/2
OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND RESULTS IN A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE
MOS...AND EXISTING NUMBERS WERE USED FOR TEMPS.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS. BUT AGAIN...TO OFFER
ANY DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER VS. LOWER POP VALUES IS NOT
ATTAINABLE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT (ECMWF AREA WIDE...GFS NOW HIGHER POPS
EAST VS. WEST 2/3 OF THE AREA). BEST POPS SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN RISE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL S/WV FORECAST TO EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW GREATER RESOLUTION WITH AND EMPHASIS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
MEANS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE TO THE SAME DEGREE. THEREFORE OUR
CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH...FORECAST MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS BUT NOTHING HIGHER FOR NOW. WE
BELIEVE THE BLEND SUITE WEIGHTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE OFFERS TOO MUCH
DETAIL AND OCCASIONALLY TOO HIGH POPS FOR SUCH UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 220754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TREND FOR THE DOMINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY ACROSS THE WFO PAH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING, THE SIGNAL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
BY SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM
RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS
SERVING AS THE GENESIS POINT FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
AND THE EVENTUAL IMPINGING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOURCE
REGION FOR VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY, IT WILL TAP INTO AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO WILL SET UP A WEST TO EAST POP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, AS A MORE UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE COMES INTO PLAY IN THE WEST UNDER THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE
THE WESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORED
ZONE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS AREA ON SUNDAY.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN 1/2
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA MAY PLAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY INDUCED AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. THERE MAY BE A MIX
OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL... WITH SOME MULTICELL STORMS FURTHER WEST
WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND OUTFLOW MERGERS
SUPPORTING RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE KEY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
0-3/0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS PRETTY MEAGER...AROUND
25 M/S OR LESS.

DESPITE ADJUSTING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD THIS WEEK, MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVATIONS.
TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE WARM BIAS...BUT STILL MAY BE TOO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RESPECTABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
72 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S. IS
EXPECTED...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WEST 1/2
OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND RESULTS IN A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE
MOS...AND EXISTING NUMBERS WERE USED FOR TEMPS.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS. BUT AGAIN...TO OFFER
ANY DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER VS. LOWER POP VALUES IS NOT
ATTAINABLE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT (ECMWF AREA WIDE...GFS NOW HIGHER POPS
EAST VS. WEST 2/3 OF THE AREA). BEST POPS SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN RISE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL S/WV FORECAST TO EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW GREATER RESOLUTION WITH AND EMPHASIS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
MEANS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE TO THE SAME DEGREE. THEREFORE OUR
CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH...FORECAST MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS BUT NOTHING HIGHER FOR NOW. WE
BELIEVE THE BLEND SUITE WEIGHTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE OFFERS TOO MUCH
DETAIL AND OCCASIONALLY TOO HIGH POPS FOR SUCH UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 220754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE TREND FOR THE DOMINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY ACROSS THE WFO PAH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING, THE SIGNAL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
BY SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION AND MEDIUM
RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS
SERVING AS THE GENESIS POINT FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
AND THE EVENTUAL IMPINGING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOURCE
REGION FOR VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY, IT WILL TAP INTO AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO WILL SET UP A WEST TO EAST POP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, AS A MORE UNSTABLE
THERMAL PROFILE COMES INTO PLAY IN THE WEST UNDER THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE
THE WESTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORED
ZONE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS AREA ON SUNDAY.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN 1/2
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA MAY PLAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY INDUCED AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. THERE MAY BE A MIX
OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE WITH
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL... WITH SOME MULTICELL STORMS FURTHER WEST
WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND OUTFLOW MERGERS
SUPPORTING RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE KEY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
0-3/0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS PRETTY MEAGER...AROUND
25 M/S OR LESS.

DESPITE ADJUSTING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD THIS WEEK, MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVATIONS.
TRIED TO ADJUST FOR THE WARM BIAS...BUT STILL MAY BE TOO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RESPECTABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
72 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S. IS
EXPECTED...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WEST 1/2
OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND RESULTS IN A BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE
MOS...AND EXISTING NUMBERS WERE USED FOR TEMPS.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS. BUT AGAIN...TO OFFER
ANY DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER VS. LOWER POP VALUES IS NOT
ATTAINABLE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT (ECMWF AREA WIDE...GFS NOW HIGHER POPS
EAST VS. WEST 2/3 OF THE AREA). BEST POPS SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN RISE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL S/WV FORECAST TO EJECT NE INTO THE PLAINS.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW GREATER RESOLUTION WITH AND EMPHASIS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
MEANS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE TO THE SAME DEGREE. THEREFORE OUR
CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH...FORECAST MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS BUT NOTHING HIGHER FOR NOW. WE
BELIEVE THE BLEND SUITE WEIGHTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE OFFERS TOO MUCH
DETAIL AND OCCASIONALLY TOO HIGH POPS FOR SUCH UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 220416
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1116 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 220416
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1116 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 220416
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1116 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 220416
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1116 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUNNY SKIES TMRW AND SW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AT EVV/OWB AFTER
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 212009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE CALL ON HOW FAST CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
LOW END MVFR TO VFR. ENHANCED IR SHOWED BREAKS UP INTO ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI MOVING SOUTH. MODEL RH AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST BASES
LIFTING GRADUALLY THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH NW/N WINDS THE RULE GENERALLY UP TO 10 KTS. BELIEVE
THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THE RULE TONIGHT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 212009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE CALL ON HOW FAST CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
LOW END MVFR TO VFR. ENHANCED IR SHOWED BREAKS UP INTO ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI MOVING SOUTH. MODEL RH AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST BASES
LIFTING GRADUALLY THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH NW/N WINDS THE RULE GENERALLY UP TO 10 KTS. BELIEVE
THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THE RULE TONIGHT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 212009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE CALL ON HOW FAST CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
LOW END MVFR TO VFR. ENHANCED IR SHOWED BREAKS UP INTO ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI MOVING SOUTH. MODEL RH AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST BASES
LIFTING GRADUALLY THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH NW/N WINDS THE RULE GENERALLY UP TO 10 KTS. BELIEVE
THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THE RULE TONIGHT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB





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