000
FXUS63 KPAH 252326
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

UPDATED THE PUBLIC GRIDS AN HOUR AGO TO PUSH BACK ALL POPS TO LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE AND 18Z NAM AND
GFS INDICATE THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT IF
NOT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND
MORE SPECIFICALLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA. GIVEN THE DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED IF THE ENTIRE AREA STAYS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES MAINLY WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION TONIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAK MID LVL SHORTWAVES WILL SHOOT SE ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY UP ALONG THE I 64
CORRIDOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY VARY SUNDAY FROM THE 70S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...TO THE 80S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED. ALL AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE THE 80S ON MEMORIAL DAY
AS THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND TAKES
MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

ODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAINLY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL HOLD OFF PRECIP JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON AND OFF LATE IN
THE WEEK OVER SE MO BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS TYPICAL
OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TO HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF LIGHT
PRECIP. NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING
EAST OF INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING
WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE HEARTLAND. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL DAY 8. WILL HOLD OFF AND
WATCH FOR CONTINUITY SINCE TOMORROWS FORECAST WILL REACH INTO DAY 8.
THEN WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TIMING BACK
ANOTHER 24 HOURS WHICH IS ALSO A COMMON BIAS OF THE MODELS IN
GENERAL. HOWEVER IF THEY HOLD FIRM MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRO OF
POPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THIS COMING WEEK...EXPECT A RAPID
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THIS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE FORECAST IS VFR WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL BELOW 10KTS
AT ALL SITES. A STEADY STREAM OF CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND SOME CU ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
KEVV...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KOWB...WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
SHOWER/STORM TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SOME PERIODIC MID-
LEVEL CEILINGS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 251943
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
243 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES MAINLY WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION TONIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAK MID LVL SHORTWAVES WILL SHOOT SE ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY UP ALONG THE I 64
CORRIDOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY VARY SUNDAY FROM THE 70S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...TO THE 80S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED. ALL AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE THE 80S ON MEMORIAL DAY
AS THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND TAKES
MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

ODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAINLY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL HOLD OFF PRECIP JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON AND OFF LATE IN
THE WEEK OVER SE MO BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS TYPICAL
OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TO HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF LIGHT
PRECIP. NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING
EAST OF INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING
WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE HEARTLAND. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL DAY 8. WILL HOLD OFF AND
WATCH FOR CONTINUITY SINCE TOMORROWS FORECAST WILL REACH INTO DAY 8.
THEN WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TIMING BACK
ANOTHER 24 HOURS WHICH IS ALSO A COMMON BIAS OF THE MODELS IN
GENERAL. HOWEVER IF THEY HOLD FIRM MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRO OF
POPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THIS COMING WEEK...EXPECT A RAPID
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THIS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE VALID TIME OF TAFS. MID
DECK CIGS EXPECTED A KEVV AND KOWB FROM BLOW OFF OF STORMS
NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...KH

000
FXUS63 KPAH 251659
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TAKES
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. MINOR IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS...ENHANCING THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LEANED CLOSER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTION FOR POPS/WEATHER...AS MEAN WARM FRONTAL ZONE PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
PUSH THE MEAN BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AS UPPER RIDE
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SHARPER LAPSE RATES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION SCHEME IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE MOST
PART...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS TYPICALLY HAVING THE
PROPENSITY TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA A BIT TOO
QUICKLY...DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE VALID TIME OF TAFS. MID
DECK CIGS EXPECTED A KEVV AND KOWB FROM BLOWOFF OF STORMS
NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KH

000
FXUS63 KPAH 251042
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TAKES
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. MINOR IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS...ENHANCING THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LEANED CLOSER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTION FOR POPS/WEATHER...AS MEAN WARM FRONTAL ZONE PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
PUSH THE MEAN BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AS UPPER RIDE
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SHARPER LAPSE RATES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION SCHEME IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE MOST
PART...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS TYPICALLY HAVING THE
PROPENSITY TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA A BIT TOO
QUICKLY...DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

SIMILAR TO THE 06Z SATURDAY ISSUANCE...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EACH OF THE WFO PAH TAF
SITES. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DELAY ANY EFFECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LAST 1-3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY AT THE
KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS63 KPAH 250757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TAKES
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. MINOR IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS...ENHANCING THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LEANED CLOSER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTION FOR POPS/WEATHER...AS MEAN WARM FRONTAL ZONE PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
PUSH THE MEAN BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AS UPPER RIDE
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND SUPPORT SLIGHTLY SHARPER LAPSE RATES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION SCHEME IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE MOST
PART...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS TYPICALLY HAVING THE
PROPENSITY TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA A BIT TOO
QUICKLY...DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHER THAN A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CW

000
FXUS63 KPAH 250432
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER
HEARTLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATED A NORTHERLY LIGHT BREEZE
WITH LOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. 12Z FRI UPPER AIR RUN ANALYSIS
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CU FORMING BUT WITH VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND
NOT MIX OUT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
EAST AND INTO THE HEARTLAND THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE SOME MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WOULD BE SLOWER TO
ADVECT MOISTURE THAN A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BETTER EXPLAIN WHY THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOW A VERY MOIST COLUMN ABOVE 5K FEET BUT FAIRLY DRY AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD SLOW PRECIP SATURATING
TO THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND. IN CONTRAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY HENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION CANT RULE OUT
AT LEAST A CHC TO SLIGHT CHC THIS WEEKEND. ALSO WITH K INDICIES
AROUND 30 AND LI`S NEGATIVE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. HOWEVER THINK IT
WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING THAN SATURDAY EVENING. THUS PLAN
TO BACK OFF ON TIMING AND CHC OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
RESTRICT TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND
COLLABORATION FOR FINAL CLOSER TO PRESS TIME. THE 12Z FRI NAM IS IN
AND PRODUCED A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO THAN THE 6Z RUN.

OTHERWISE WILL START A SLOW WARM UP AFTER TODAY BRINGING TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT / WAA LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA...COUPLE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT RIDING EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THE CHANCES WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE FORECASTING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THIS SHOULD DEFINITELY BE THE CASE
TUE/WED. BEYOND THAT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GIVEN THE CORE OF THE RIDGE REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM. WENT CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN
RAISING HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LONG TERM. INHERITED MIN
TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHER THAN A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KPAH 242300
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
600 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER
HEARTLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATED A NORTHERLY LIGHT BREEZE
WITH LOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. 12Z FRI UPPER AIR RUN ANALYSIS
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CU FORMING BUT WITH VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND
NOT MIX OUT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
EAST AND INTO THE HEARTLAND THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE SOME MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WOULD BE SLOWER TO
ADVECT MOISTURE THAN A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BETTER EXPLAIN WHY THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOW A VERY MOIST COLUMN ABOVE 5K FEET BUT FAIRLY DRY AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD SLOW PRECIP SATURATING
TO THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND. IN CONTRAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY HENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION CANT RULE OUT
AT LEAST A CHC TO SLIGHT CHC THIS WEEKEND. ALSO WITH K INDICIES
AROUND 30 AND LI`S NEGATIVE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. HOWEVER THINK IT
WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING THAN SATURDAY EVENING. THUS PLAN
TO BACK OFF ON TIMING AND CHC OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
RESTRICT TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND
COLLABORATION FOR FINAL CLOSER TO PRESS TIME. THE 12Z FRI NAM IS IN
AND PRODUCED A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO THAN THE 6Z RUN.

OTHERWISE WILL START A SLOW WARM UP AFTER TODAY BRINGING TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT / WAA LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA...COUPLE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT RIDING EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THE CHANCES WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE FORECASTING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THIS SHOULD DEFINITELY BE THE CASE
TUE/WED. BEYOND THAT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GIVEN THE CORE OF THE RIDGE REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM. WENT CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN
RAISING HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LONG TERM. INHERITED MIN
TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHER THAN A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KPAH 242010 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER
HEARTLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATED A NORTHERLY LIGHT BREEZE
WITH LOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. 12Z FRI UPPER AIR RUN ANALYSIS
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CU FORMING BUT WITH VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND
NOT MIX OUT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
EAST AND INTO THE HEARTLAND THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE SOME MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WOULD BE SLOWER TO
ADVECT MOISTURE THAN A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BETTER EXPLAIN WHY THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOW A VERY MOIST COLUMN ABOVE 5K FEET BUT FAIRLY DRY AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD SLOW PRECIP SATURATING
TO THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND. IN CONTRAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY HENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION CANT RULE OUT
AT LEAST A CHC TO SLIGHT CHC THIS WEEKEND. ALSO WITH K INDICIES
AROUND 30 AND LI`S NEGATIVE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. HOWEVER THINK IT
WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING THAN SATURDAY EVENING. THUS PLAN
TO BACK OFF ON TIMING AND CHC OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
RESTRICT TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND
COLLABORATION FOR FINAL CLOSER TO PRESS TIME. THE 12Z FRI NAM IS IN
AND PRODUCED A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO THAN THE 6Z RUN.

OTHERWISE WILL START A SLOW WARM UP AFTER TODAY BRINGING TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT / WAA LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA...COUPLE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT RIDING EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THE CHANCES WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE FORECASTING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THIS SHOULD DEFINITELY BE THE CASE
TUE/WED. BEYOND THAT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GIVEN THE CORE OF THE RIDGE REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM. WENT CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN
RAISING HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LONG TERM. INHERITED MIN
TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...CN

000
FXUS63 KPAH 241833
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER
HEARTLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATED A NORTHERLY LIGHT BREEZE
WITH LOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. 12Z FRI UPPER AIR RUN ANALYSIS
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CU FORMING BUT WITH VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND
NOT MIX OUT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
EAST AND INTO THE HEARTLAND THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE SOME MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WOULD BE SLOWER TO
ADVECT MOISTURE THAN A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BETTER EXPLAIN WHY THE FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOW A VERY MOIST COLUMN ABOVE 5K FEET BUT FAIRLY DRY AT
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD SLOW PRECIP SATURATING
TO THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND. IN CONTRAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY HENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION CANT RULE OUT
AT LEAST A CHC TO SLIGHT CHC THIS WEEKEND. ALSO WITH K INDICIES
AROUND 30 AND LI`S NEGATIVE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER. HOWEVER THINK IT
WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING THAN SATURDAY EVENING. THUS PLAN
TO BACK OFF ON TIMING AND CHC OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
RESTRICT TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND
COLLABORATION FOR FINAL CLOSER TO PRESS TIME. THE 12Z FRI NAM IS IN
AND PRODUCED A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO THAN THE 6Z RUN.

OTHERWISE WILL START A SLOW WARM UP AFTER TODAY BRINGING TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT / WAA LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA...COUPLE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT RIDING EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THE CHANCES WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND DRIER AIR WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE FORECASTING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THIS SHOULD DEFINITELY BE THE CASE
TUE/WED. BEYOND THAT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GIVEN THE CORE OF THE RIDGE REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM. WENT CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN
RAISING HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LONG TERM. INHERITED MIN
TEMPS LOOK GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013


VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...CN

000
FXUS63 KPAH 241713
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON. HIGHS TODAY
NEAR 70 WILL EDGE INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING
TREND WILL YIELD INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
REGION...WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE CONSISTENT GFS REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH IN DEPICTING RAIN
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND THUS IS THE DRIEST MODEL
LOCALLY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST
SOUTH...BUT ITS 24/00Z RUN HAS FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EVEN WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY
TIME BETWEEN THE RAIN CHANCES TO ENJOY MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IF NOT
80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THE BETTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM FRONT
DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS OF ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND MOVEMENT. OF COURSE MINOR DETAILS SUCH AS THESE WILL
DETERMINE WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CLOSER TO REALITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

MONDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

FROM TUESDAY ON MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KPAH 241146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AMENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON. HIGHS TODAY
NEAR 70 WILL EDGE INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING
TREND WILL YIELD INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
REGION...WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE CONSISTENT GFS REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH IN DEPICTING RAIN
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND THUS IS THE DRIEST MODEL
LOCALLY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST
SOUTH...BUT ITS 24/00Z RUN HAS FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EVEN WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY
TIME BETWEEN THE RAIN CHANCES TO ENJOY MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IF NOT
80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THE BETTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM FRONT
DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS OF ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND MOVEMENT. OF COURSE MINOR DETAILS SUCH AS THESE WILL
DETERMINE WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CLOSER TO REALITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

MONDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

FROM TUESDAY ON MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AN ABSOLUTELY STELLAR DAY IS IN STORE FOR LOCAL AVIATION
INTERESTS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND N/NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP

000
FXUS63 KPAH 240857
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON. HIGHS TODAY
NEAR 70 WILL EDGE INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING
TREND WILL YIELD INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
REGION...WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE CONSISTENT GFS REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH IN DEPICTING RAIN
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND THUS IS THE DRIEST MODEL
LOCALLY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST
SOUTH...BUT ITS 24/00Z RUN HAS FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EVEN WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY
TIME BETWEEN THE RAIN CHANCES TO ENJOY MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IF NOT
80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THE BETTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM FRONT
DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS OF ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND MOVEMENT. OF COURSE MINOR DETAILS SUCH AS THESE WILL
DETERMINE WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CLOSER TO REALITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

MONDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

FROM TUESDAY ON MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE LAST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF KOWB
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND SKC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH MIXING MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING A NORTHEAST
WIND AT 5 TO 10KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CALM OR VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 240456
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING SSE IN ASSOC WITH A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROF. BASED ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE OR MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE DAY FAR NW AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE CHANCE
WILL SPREAD SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT FOR NOW...STILL LOW CHANCE AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GEM WAS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...AND NOW TODAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF...BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY.  GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF FALLING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GEM IS GEM SHOWS
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.  ECMWF AMOUNTS LOOK MORE REASONABLE IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.  WENT WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW
BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISREGARD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MIDWEEK.

THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING...WITH
THE MEX GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ECE DUE TO THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.  DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE
TO THE ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE
GUIDANCE.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE LAST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF KOWB
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND SKC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH MIXING MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING A NORTHEAST
WIND AT 5 TO 10KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CALM OR VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 232327
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING SSE IN ASSOC WITH A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROF. BASED ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE OR MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE DAY FAR NW AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE CHANCE
WILL SPREAD SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT FOR NOW...STILL LOW CHANCE AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GEM WAS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...AND NOW TODAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF...BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY.  GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF FALLING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GEM IS GEM SHOWS
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.  ECMWF AMOUNTS LOOK MORE REASONABLE IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.  WENT WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW
BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISREGARD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MIDWEEK.

THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING...WITH
THE MEX GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ECE DUE TO THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.  DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE
TO THE ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE
GUIDANCE.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE KEVV AREA WITH A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE THROUGH KEVV BY
00Z...BUT WILL IMPACT KOWB DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY EVEN VISIBILITIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NEAR DUE NORTH
AND GUST INTO THE 20KTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AT KEVV AND
KOWB...BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER WEST AT KCGI AND KPAH...A LOW VFR CEILING IS EXPECTED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING BY 06Z. THE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE WESTERN SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING...BEFORE DYING DOWN TO 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

A NORTHEAST WIND JUST UNDER 10KTS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FROM
MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. A FEW CU CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT SKC IS
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 232022
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING SSE IN ASSOC WITH A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROF. BASED ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE OR MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE DAY FAR NW AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE CHANCE
WILL SPREAD SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT FOR NOW...STILL LOW CHANCE AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GEM WAS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...AND NOW TODAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF...BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY.  GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF FALLING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GEM IS GEM SHOWS
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.  ECMWF AMOUNTS LOOK MORE REASONABLE IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.  WENT WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW
BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISREGARD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MIDWEEK.

THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING...WITH
THE MEX GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ECE DUE TO THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.  DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE
TO THE ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE
GUIDANCE.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCT-BKN STRATO-CU/CU WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS
THE RULE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ASPECT INTO THE EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY SUGGEST CLEARING...AS CLOUDS LINGER FAIRLY FAR TO THE NW
ACROSS NRN MO INTO SRN IA. WNW WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE N THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KPAH 231709
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1208 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AT
THE TIME OF WRITING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THEREAFTER...WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY SATURDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LOCALLY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STILL UP FOR
GRABS. LONG TERM MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT. THE GULF WILL BE
WIDE OPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD SO MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. WHETHER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE MOISTURE WITH NO
CAPPING IS THE BIG QUESTION. UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SURE.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS...ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND A TAD WARMER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS SUPPRESS THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A SERIES OF RIPPLES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AND VIRTUALLY CRANK OUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP OVER ALL OR PART OF THE CWA EVERY DAY AND NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOPEFULLY WITH TIME MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW
NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCT-BKN STRATO-CU/CU WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS
THE RULE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ASPECT INTO THE EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY SUGGEST CLEARING...AS CLOUDS LINGER FAIRLY FAR TO THE NW
ACROSS NRN MO INTO SRN IA. WNW WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE N THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KPAH 231141
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AT
THE TIME OF WRITING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THEREAFTER...WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY SATURDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LOCALLY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STILL UP FOR
GRABS. LONG TERM MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT. THE GULF WILL BE
WIDE OPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD SO MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. WHETHER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE MOISTURE WITH NO
CAPPING IS THE BIG QUESTION. UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SURE.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS...ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND A TAD WARMER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS SUPPRESS THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A SERIES OF RIPPLES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AND VIRTUALLY CRANK OUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP OVER ALL OR PART OF THE CWA EVERY DAY AND NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOPEFULLY WITH TIME MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW
NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT
KEVV AND KOWB. AN MVFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV AND
KOWB DURING THE EVENING...BUT A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP

000
FXUS63 KPAH 230832
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AT
THE TIME OF WRITING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THEREAFTER...WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY SATURDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LOCALLY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STILL UP FOR
GRABS. LONG TERM MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT. THE GULF WILL BE
WIDE OPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD SO MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. WHETHER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE MOISTURE WITH NO
CAPPING IS THE BIG QUESTION. UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SURE.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS...ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND A TAD WARMER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS SUPPRESS THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A SERIES OF RIPPLES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AND VIRTUALLY CRANK OUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP OVER ALL OR PART OF THE CWA EVERY DAY AND NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOPEFULLY WITH TIME MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW
NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

A LIGHT WEST WIND WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING...AS A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THE CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AND SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV AND KOWB. AN MVFR CEILING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV AND KOWB LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED...SO ADDED A PREVAILING
MVFR CEILING AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 230458
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

H5 LOW OVER NRN IOWA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DECENT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MODELS STILL DIFFER FOR THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK WEATHER
SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST AT 00Z SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. GFS HAS THE PLAINS LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS...THUS KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND OUT OF THE
THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. ECMWF SHOWS ON
AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
GEM SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BLEND OF THE TWO...AND HAS BEEN TRENDING A
BIT MORE TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GEM
COMPROMISE...WHICH LEADS TO INCLUDING SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION. ECMWF TRIES TO
CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THE PRECIP EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST U.S...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MODERATING TO NEAR
SEASONAL ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TOA GRADUAL WARM UP AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

A NICE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ON A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE A
TEMPO AT KPAH AND KOWB FOR AN HOUR OR SO TO HANDLE IT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A DECENT WESTERLY GUST.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. A LIGHT WEST WIND
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW VFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. THE CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AND SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KEVV AND KOWB. AN MVFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV
AND KOWB LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED...SO ADDED A PREVAILING MVFR CEILING AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS