Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KPAH 222203
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will continue in control of the
weather tonight. Main forecast challenge continues to lie with
frost potential later tonight. Current dew points are mostly in
the lower 40s. Much like last night, clear and calm conditions
will allow temps to fall off quickly after sunset. Sfc temps will
likely end up driving dew point down after midnight, creating
another heavy dew situation. This will usually preclude much frost
formation with above freezing temperatures. So, have decided to
hold off on any frost headlines, but will still mention areas of
frost in areas along/east of the MS River. Normally colder
locations could end up close to freezing by sunrise.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system. Should be one
more chilly day with highs in the 60s. Sfc high will finally drift
farther east of the region by Friday/Friday night, allowing a
significant warming trend to get underway.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend into Monday as an upper level ridge moves across the PAH
forecast area.

Models continue to flip flop with their solutions with the
Tuesday/Wednesday cold front passage. ECMWF and GFS sometimes take
the front through pretty quickly late Monday night into early
Tuesday night, and sometimes stall the front over our region through
at least Wednesday.  The best agreement and most consistency between
the models is precipitation moving into our west/northwest counties
late Monday night, with good chances through the day Tuesday.  After
Tuesday, confidence drops off more.  Will continue with slight to
low chance pops for showers for our west/northwest counties late
Monday night, then chance pops area wide on Tuesday.  By Tuesday
night, went with slight chance pops west to chance pops east, which
somewhat is a compromise of the two solutions.  By Wednesday, went
with cooler temperatures based on the belief we should be north of
the front in either case.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

No clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast tonight as a surface
high pressure ridge passes overhead. This may lead to potential
for ground fog...with some ifr conditions possible toward
sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites. As the high shifts east
tmrw, some high clouds will begin to move in from the west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 222009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will continue in control of the
weather tonight. Main forecast challenge continues to lie with
frost potential later tonight. Current dew points are mostly in
the lower 40s. Much like last night, clear and calm conditions
will allow temps to fall off quickly after sunset. Sfc temps will
likely end up driving dew point down after midnight, creating
another heavy dew situation. This will usually preclude much frost
formation with above freezing temperatures. So, have decided to
hold off on any frost headlines, but will still mention areas of
frost in areas along/east of the MS River. Normally colder
locations could end up close to freezing by sunrise.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system. Should be one
more chilly day with highs in the 60s. Sfc high will finally drift
farther east of the region by Friday/Friday night, allowing a
significant warming trend to get underway.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend into Monday as an upper level ridge moves across the PAH
forecast area.

Models continue to flip flop with their solutions with the
Tuesday/Wednesday cold front passage. ECMWF and GFS sometimes take
the front through pretty quickly late Monday night into early
Tuesday night, and sometimes stall the front over our region through
at least Wednesday.  The best agreement and most consistency between
the models is precipitation moving into our west/northwest counties
late Monday night, with good chances through the day Tuesday.  After
Tuesday, confidence drops off more.  Will continue with slight to
low chance pops for showers for our west/northwest counties late
Monday night, then chance pops area wide on Tuesday.  By Tuesday
night, went with slight chance pops west to chance pops east, which
somewhat is a compromise of the two solutions.  By Wednesday, went
with cooler temperatures based on the belief we should be north of
the front in either case.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

No clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast through this evening.
As a surface high pressure ridge passes overhead tonight...winds
will become calm. This will be more conducive for ground fog than
the past few nights. Some ifr conditions are possible toward
sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 221124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Today will be another sunny day for most of our region. There may
be some afternoon cumulus clouds again in southwest Indiana and
adjoining areas...but coverage will be less than Tuesday. As for
high temps...will keep forecast highs a little above model
guidance for most areas. Nearly all guidance shows highs will be 5
to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday...even though 850 mb temps
actually warm up a degree or two with another day of full sun.
Guidance showed a cool bias on Tuesday...and this appears to be
the case again today. The exception to this bias is in the
Evansville region...where clouds kept temps close to guidance
Tuesday.

The main forecast concern for tonight is still frost. A surface
ridge axis will be nearly overhead late tonight. Surface winds
will become nearly calm...which is not the case at this current
hour. The ongoing winds are likely keeping temps several degrees
higher than they will be early Thursday morning. Again prefer the
00z ecmwf mos lows...which are colder than other guidance. The in-
house weighted model...which uses the best performing guidance
over recent model cycles...is in excellent agreement with the
ecmwf. This means that many areas will fall into the mid
30s. Frost is likely in outlying and rural areas...so will
continue the mention of patchy frost in zones/grids and hwo. There
is still not enough confidence in a more widespread frost to issue
a Frost Advisory. The day shift will re-evaluate the need for an
advisory for widespread frost.

On Thursday...an increase in mid and high cloudiness will occur
ahead of a weakening shortwave trough moving southeast from the
Upper Mississippi Valley. These clouds will keep temps on the cool
side despite the wind shift into the southwest. The clouds will
persist through Thursday night. The 00z ecmwf is still the outlier
in generating a little light rain across southwest Indiana and
adjoining counties. Will keep the forecast dry...as nearly all
other guidance indicates.

Friday and Friday night will become mainly clear as a large upper
level ridge builds east from the Plains. Low level winds will become
west to southwest...bringing a warming trend.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very little to discuss through most of the long term period.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is expected to
produce plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the
rest of the work week, the upcoming weekend, and the first day of
next week.

The next chance of precipitation is forecast to make its way into
the far western/northwestern portions of our CWA Next Monday night
with the approach of a weather system coming out of the plains.
Confidence in the evolution of this system is rather low at the
moment as latest long range models not in good agreement.

Around midday Monday the GFS and ECMWF are similar in that they show
the driving mechanism behind this system (a short wave) located over
Colorado. Beyond that their solutions really begin to diverge.

The GFS takes the short wave and associated surface low on a track
from Colorado northeast into the Great Lakes region by midday
Tuesday with a cold front trailing southwest into the southern
plains. During the same 24 hours the ECMWF drives the short wave,
surface low, and front almost due east with all of them moving into
the western/northwestern sections of our CWA.

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night the GFS shows the frontal
boundary becoming more parallel to the southwest flow aloft thereby
hanging it up over the northwest half of our CWA. In the same time
frame, the ECMWF promptly moves the system across our CWA, then off
to the east.

Either solution means better chances for precipitation across our
CWA on Tuesday, but obviously the evolution of this system will make
all the difference where placement of QPF is concerned. We will
continue to closely monitor future model runs in hopes that
eventually there will be better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Some ground fog at kcgi will burn off quickly after sunrise.
Otherwise...no clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast through this
evening. As a surface high pressure ridge passes overhead
tonight...winds will become calm. This will be more conducive for
ground fog than the past few nights. Some ifr conditions are
possible toward sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 220805
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Today will be another sunny day for most of our region. There may
be some afternoon cumulus clouds again in southwest Indiana and
adjoining areas...but coverage will be less than Tuesday. As for
high temps...will keep forecast highs a little above model
guidance for most areas. Nearly all guidance shows highs will be 5
to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday...even though 850 mb temps
actually warm up a degree or two with another day of full sun.
Guidance showed a cool bias on Tuesday...and this appears to be
the case again today. The exception to this bias is in the
Evansville region...where clouds kept temps close to guidance
Tuesday.

The main forecast concern for tonight is still frost. A surface
ridge axis will be nearly overhead late tonight. Surface winds
will become nearly calm...which is not the case at this current
hour. The ongoing winds are likely keeping temps several degrees
higher than they will be early Thursday morning. Again prefer the
00z ecmwf mos lows...which are colder than other guidance. The in-
house weighted model...which uses the best performing guidance
over recent model cycles...is in excellent agreement with the
ecmwf. This means that many areas will fall into the mid
30s. Frost is likely in outlying and rural areas...so will
continue the mention of patchy frost in zones/grids and hwo. There
is still not enough confidence in a more widespread frost to issue
a Frost Advisory. The day shift will re-evaluate the need for an
advisory for widespread frost.

On Thursday...an increase in mid and high cloudiness will occur
ahead of a weakening shortwave trough moving southeast from the
Upper Mississippi Valley. These clouds will keep temps on the cool
side despite the wind shift into the southwest. The clouds will
persist through Thursday night. The 00z ecmwf is still the outlier
in generating a little light rain across southwest Indiana and
adjoining counties. Will keep the forecast dry...as nearly all
other guidance indicates.

Friday and Friday night will become mainly clear as a large upper
level ridge builds east from the Plains. Low level winds will become
west to southwest...bringing a warming trend.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very little to discuss through most of the long term period.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is expected to
produce plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the
rest of the work week, the upcoming weekend, and the first day of
next week.

The next chance of precipitation is forecast to make its way into
the far western/northwestern portions of our CWA Next Monday night
with the approach of a weather system coming out of the plains.
Confidence in the evolution of this system is rather low at the
moment as latest long range models not in good agreement.

Around midday Monday the GFS and ECMWF are similar in that they show
the driving mechanism behind this system (a short wave) located over
Colorado. Beyond that their solutions really begin to diverge.

The GFS takes the short wave and associated surface low on a track
from Colorado northeast into the Great Lakes region by midday
Tuesday with a cold front trailing southwest into the southern
plains. During the same 24 hours the ECMWF drives the short wave,
surface low, and front almost due east with all of them moving into
the western/northwestern sections of our CWA.

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night the GFS shows the frontal
boundary becoming more parallel to the southwest flow aloft thereby
hanging it up over the northwest half of our CWA. In the same time
frame, the ECMWF promptly moves the system across our CWA, then off
to the east.

Either solution means better chances for precipitation across our
CWA on Tuesday, but obviously the evolution of this system will make
all the difference where placement of QPF is concerned. We will
continue to closely monitor future model runs in hopes that
eventually there will be better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 220435
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 220435
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 212336
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

With surface high pressure entrenched over the region, light
northeast winds and clear skies will be the rule throughout the
00Z TAF period. The exceptions are a few cu that may flirt with
KEVV and KOWB later this evening, as well as the usual late night
fog potential at KCGI, if winds can die off enough there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 211907
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
207 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Some patchy fog may form again very late tonight...primarily at
kcgi. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure
presses south from Canada.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 211138
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Some patchy ground fog at kcgi will burn off shortly after sunrise.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will form by midday and then
dissipate by sunset. Some patchy fog may form again very late
tonight...primarily at kcgi. Winds will be north 5 to 10 knots
today...then nearly calm tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KPAH 211138
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Some patchy ground fog at kcgi will burn off shortly after sunrise.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will form by midday and then
dissipate by sunset. Some patchy fog may form again very late
tonight...primarily at kcgi. Winds will be north 5 to 10 knots
today...then nearly calm tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KPAH 210823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 210449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 210449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 202342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front is attempting to push through the TAF sites
early this evening. Would not rule out a stray light shower at
KOWB until the front passes there in the next 2 hours. Behind the
front, skies will be clear with light north northwest winds. Winds
may die off enough at KCGI for some shallow fog development there
overnight. North winds will pick up a bit with mixing Tuesday
afternoon, but gusts should be very limited. A decent cu field
will develop by afternoon. It should be thickest at KEVV and KOWB,
where a ceiling condition is not out of the question. It appears
that the solid ~6kft clouds near Lake Michigan will pass to the
north and east, so will not forecast ceilings at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 202342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front is attempting to push through the TAF sites
early this evening. Would not rule out a stray light shower at
KOWB until the front passes there in the next 2 hours. Behind the
front, skies will be clear with light north northwest winds. Winds
may die off enough at KCGI for some shallow fog development there
overnight. North winds will pick up a bit with mixing Tuesday
afternoon, but gusts should be very limited. A decent cu field
will develop by afternoon. It should be thickest at KEVV and KOWB,
where a ceiling condition is not out of the question. It appears
that the solid ~6kft clouds near Lake Michigan will pass to the
north and east, so will not forecast ceilings at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 201942
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Other than some late night MVFR fog conditions at KCGI/KPAH,
expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF time frame. Could be some
MIFG from 07-13z at KCGI.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT








000
FXUS63 KPAH 201942
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Other than some late night MVFR fog conditions at KCGI/KPAH,
expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF time frame. Could be some
MIFG from 07-13z at KCGI.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201743
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Updated for aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The short term period continues to be rather benign.

Today an upper level disturbance will push a cold front toward the
mid Mississippi valley. Models still not in good agreement on
how much precipitation, if any, will fall across our CWA this
morning. The NAM12 continues to indicate dry conditions with the
remainder of the models showing a variety of light precipitation
scenarios over all or part of our CWA this morning.

Initially all moisture and any precipitation generated will be
elevated with a fairly dry layer below, so little if any
precipitation is expected to reach the ground. As we transition
through the morning hours, the dry layer near the surface begins to
moisten up a bit but the upper levels begin to dry out. Neither
scenario is conducive to receiving measurable rainfall.

The best chances for precipitation this morning should be over the
northeast third of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher.
With so much uncertainty, continued to keep POPS at a minimum.
Still expect precipitation chances to be south and east of our CWA
this afternoon.

The front is expected to cross our region tonight but with little to
no moisture to work with, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.
In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The long term period starts off with surface high pressure centered
over the area and weak ridging aloft, but with a sharp short wave
approaching from the central plains.

Latest model runs now handling the evolution of the short wave
totally different from it`s output this time last night. Last night
models showed the short wave becoming closed off and suppressed to
the south by ridging in it`s wake. Now models are showing the short
wave diving southeast across our CWA Thursday night but weakening
considerably before reaching our area with no QPF expected due to a
lack of moisture in the lower levels.

In the wake of the short wave, high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft should keep things dry with near normal temperatures
through at least Saturday. Saturday night models bring a back door
front across the area but with ridging aloft and lack of moisture,
it`s passage should be of no consequence other than a wind shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Other than some late night MVFR fog conditions at KCGI/KPAH,
expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF time frame. Could be some
MIFG from 07-13z at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEFFERT
AVIATION...MEFFERT








000
FXUS63 KPAH 201743
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Updated for aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The short term period continues to be rather benign.

Today an upper level disturbance will push a cold front toward the
mid Mississippi valley. Models still not in good agreement on
how much precipitation, if any, will fall across our CWA this
morning. The NAM12 continues to indicate dry conditions with the
remainder of the models showing a variety of light precipitation
scenarios over all or part of our CWA this morning.

Initially all moisture and any precipitation generated will be
elevated with a fairly dry layer below, so little if any
precipitation is expected to reach the ground. As we transition
through the morning hours, the dry layer near the surface begins to
moisten up a bit but the upper levels begin to dry out. Neither
scenario is conducive to receiving measurable rainfall.

The best chances for precipitation this morning should be over the
northeast third of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher.
With so much uncertainty, continued to keep POPS at a minimum.
Still expect precipitation chances to be south and east of our CWA
this afternoon.

The front is expected to cross our region tonight but with little to
no moisture to work with, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.
In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The long term period starts off with surface high pressure centered
over the area and weak ridging aloft, but with a sharp short wave
approaching from the central plains.

Latest model runs now handling the evolution of the short wave
totally different from it`s output this time last night. Last night
models showed the short wave becoming closed off and suppressed to
the south by ridging in it`s wake. Now models are showing the short
wave diving southeast across our CWA Thursday night but weakening
considerably before reaching our area with no QPF expected due to a
lack of moisture in the lower levels.

In the wake of the short wave, high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft should keep things dry with near normal temperatures
through at least Saturday. Saturday night models bring a back door
front across the area but with ridging aloft and lack of moisture,
it`s passage should be of no consequence other than a wind shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Other than some late night MVFR fog conditions at KCGI/KPAH,
expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF time frame. Could be some
MIFG from 07-13z at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEFFERT
AVIATION...MEFFERT







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201137
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The short term period continues to be rather benign.

Today an upper level disturbance will push a cold front toward the
mid Mississippi valley. Models still not in good agreement on
how much precipitation, if any, will fall across our CWA this
morning. The NAM12 continues to indicate dry conditions with the
remainder of the models showing a variety of light precipitation
scenarios over all or part of our CWA this morning.

Initially all moisture and any precipitation generated will be
elevated with a fairly dry layer below, so little if any
precipitation is expected to reach the ground. As we transition
through the morning hours, the dry layer near the surface begins to
moisten up a bit but the upper levels begin to dry out. Neither
scenario is conducive to receiving measurable rainfall.

The best chances for precipitation this morning should be over the
northeast third of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher.
With so much uncertainty, continued to keep POPS at a minimum.
Still expect precipitation chances to be south and east of our CWA
this afternoon.

The front is expected to cross our region tonight but with little to
no moisture to work with, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.
In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The long term period starts off with surface high pressure centered
over the area and weak ridging aloft, but with a sharp short wave
approaching from the central plains.

Latest model runs now handling the evolution of the short wave
totally different from it`s output this time last night. Last night
models showed the short wave becoming closed off and suppressed to
the south by ridging in it`s wake. Now models are showing the short
wave diving southeast across our CWA Thursday night but weakening
considerably before reaching our area with no QPF expected due to a
lack of moisture in the lower levels.

In the wake of the short wave, high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft should keep things dry with near normal temperatures
through at least Saturday. Saturday night models bring a back door
front across the area but with ridging aloft and lack of moisture,
it`s passage should be of no consequence other than a wind shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 637 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mid level clouds and spotty light showers expected across the
region this morning well ahead of an approaching cold front. Once
mid level clouds move out by late morning, sct-bkn040 cu will
develop, dissipating by 02z. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 kts
through the day will shift to the northwest between 00z and 04z
with the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 201137
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The short term period continues to be rather benign.

Today an upper level disturbance will push a cold front toward the
mid Mississippi valley. Models still not in good agreement on
how much precipitation, if any, will fall across our CWA this
morning. The NAM12 continues to indicate dry conditions with the
remainder of the models showing a variety of light precipitation
scenarios over all or part of our CWA this morning.

Initially all moisture and any precipitation generated will be
elevated with a fairly dry layer below, so little if any
precipitation is expected to reach the ground. As we transition
through the morning hours, the dry layer near the surface begins to
moisten up a bit but the upper levels begin to dry out. Neither
scenario is conducive to receiving measurable rainfall.

The best chances for precipitation this morning should be over the
northeast third of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher.
With so much uncertainty, continued to keep POPS at a minimum.
Still expect precipitation chances to be south and east of our CWA
this afternoon.

The front is expected to cross our region tonight but with little to
no moisture to work with, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.
In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The long term period starts off with surface high pressure centered
over the area and weak ridging aloft, but with a sharp short wave
approaching from the central plains.

Latest model runs now handling the evolution of the short wave
totally different from it`s output this time last night. Last night
models showed the short wave becoming closed off and suppressed to
the south by ridging in it`s wake. Now models are showing the short
wave diving southeast across our CWA Thursday night but weakening
considerably before reaching our area with no QPF expected due to a
lack of moisture in the lower levels.

In the wake of the short wave, high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft should keep things dry with near normal temperatures
through at least Saturday. Saturday night models bring a back door
front across the area but with ridging aloft and lack of moisture,
it`s passage should be of no consequence other than a wind shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 637 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mid level clouds and spotty light showers expected across the
region this morning well ahead of an approaching cold front. Once
mid level clouds move out by late morning, sct-bkn040 cu will
develop, dissipating by 02z. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 kts
through the day will shift to the northwest between 00z and 04z
with the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200724
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
224 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The short term period continues to be rather benign.

Today an upper level disturbance will push a cold front toward the
mid Mississippi valley. Models still not in good agreement on
how much precipitation, if any, will fall across our CWA this
morning. The NAM12 continues to indicate dry conditions with the
remainder of the models showing a variety of light precipitation
scenarios over all or part of our CWA this morning.

Initially all moisture and any precipitation generated will be
elevated with a fairly dry layer below, so little if any
precipitation is expected to reach the ground. As we transition
through the morning hours, the dry layer near the surface begins to
moisten up a bit but the upper levels begin to dry out. Neither
scenario is conducive to receiving measurable rainfall.

The best chances for precipitation this morning should be over the
northeast third of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher.
With so much uncertainty, continued to keep POPS at a minimum.
Still expect precipitation chances to be south and east of our CWA
this afternoon.

The front is expected to cross our region tonight but with little to
no moisture to work with, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.
In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The long term period starts off with surface high pressure centered
over the area and weak ridging aloft, but with a sharp short wave
approaching from the central plains.

Latest model runs now handling the evolution of the short wave
totally different from it`s output this time last night. Last night
models showed the short wave becoming closed off and suppressed to
the south by ridging in it`s wake. Now models are showing the short
wave diving southeast across our CWA Thursday night but weakening
considerably before reaching our area with no QPF expected due to a
lack of moisture in the lower levels.

In the wake of the short wave, high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft should keep things dry with near normal temperatures
through at least Saturday. Saturday night models bring a back door
front across the area but with ridging aloft and lack of moisture,
it`s passage should be of no consequence other than a wind shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mid clouds are already beginning to develop across the region, as
a mid/upper-level storm system approaches from the north. The
clouds should become solid enough to prevent fog development
overnight. A light south wind at daybreak will veer to the west
southwest and pick up a bit, possibly up to 10kts with some gusts
into the teens. The strongest winds are likely to be at KEVV and
KOWB. Cannot rule out some more sprinkles at KOWB near the cold
front straddling 00Z Tuesday. A wind shift to the northwest at
under 5kts is expected with the front just after 00Z at all
sites. Skies should clear out behind the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WX...JP
AVIATION...DRS









000
FXUS63 KPAH 200724
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
224 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The short term period continues to be rather benign.

Today an upper level disturbance will push a cold front toward the
mid Mississippi valley. Models still not in good agreement on
how much precipitation, if any, will fall across our CWA this
morning. The NAM12 continues to indicate dry conditions with the
remainder of the models showing a variety of light precipitation
scenarios over all or part of our CWA this morning.

Initially all moisture and any precipitation generated will be
elevated with a fairly dry layer below, so little if any
precipitation is expected to reach the ground. As we transition
through the morning hours, the dry layer near the surface begins to
moisten up a bit but the upper levels begin to dry out. Neither
scenario is conducive to receiving measurable rainfall.

The best chances for precipitation this morning should be over the
northeast third of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher.
With so much uncertainty, continued to keep POPS at a minimum.
Still expect precipitation chances to be south and east of our CWA
this afternoon.

The front is expected to cross our region tonight but with little to
no moisture to work with, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.
In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The long term period starts off with surface high pressure centered
over the area and weak ridging aloft, but with a sharp short wave
approaching from the central plains.

Latest model runs now handling the evolution of the short wave
totally different from it`s output this time last night. Last night
models showed the short wave becoming closed off and suppressed to
the south by ridging in it`s wake. Now models are showing the short
wave diving southeast across our CWA Thursday night but weakening
considerably before reaching our area with no QPF expected due to a
lack of moisture in the lower levels.

In the wake of the short wave, high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft should keep things dry with near normal temperatures
through at least Saturday. Saturday night models bring a back door
front across the area but with ridging aloft and lack of moisture,
it`s passage should be of no consequence other than a wind shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mid clouds are already beginning to develop across the region, as
a mid/upper-level storm system approaches from the north. The
clouds should become solid enough to prevent fog development
overnight. A light south wind at daybreak will veer to the west
southwest and pick up a bit, possibly up to 10kts with some gusts
into the teens. The strongest winds are likely to be at KEVV and
KOWB. Cannot rule out some more sprinkles at KOWB near the cold
front straddling 00Z Tuesday. A wind shift to the northwest at
under 5kts is expected with the front just after 00Z at all
sites. Skies should clear out behind the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WX...JP
AVIATION...DRS








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities