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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161257
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
757 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Amended Short Term and W/W/A sections for cancellation of Freeze
Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 757 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Beyond this morning`s freeze, the main story in the short term is
the warming trend anticipated through late week as southerly flow
develops on the back side of departing high pressure. Highs today
are forecast to reach close to 60, with readings well into the 60s
on Thursday. The sharpening pressure gradient will result in the
development of gusty winds this afternoon, particularly across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. In addition, minimum
relative humidity will likely range between 25 and 30 percent, and
perhaps even lower depending upon site exposure. However, with
fuel moisture still elevated from recent rains, we do not believe
conditions will warrant any fire weather headlines at this point.
Another cold night is expected tonight, but with a light southeast
breeze, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than this
morning. With lows in the upper 30s, some patchy frost cannot be
ruled out in sheltered areas.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday ahead of a disorganized
system approaching from the Plains. Forecast models have had a
difficult time resolving this particular system. A few days back,
rain looked to be a near certainty on Friday. Now however, given
the model depicted weak forcing for lift and poor moisture return,
it would not be surprising if Thursday night and Friday turned
out dry. As it is though, I am not ready to completely remove
precipitation quite yet. However, rain chances will be substantially
reduced and focused during a narrow window from late Thursday night
into Friday morning. Where rain does occur, it should be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

At the beginning of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should make for dry conditions and
near normal temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave may
bring precipitation chances into the far western sections of our CWA
as early as Sunday afternoon, however models not in the best
agreement on this. The ECMWF/SREF show the H5 ridging holding fast a
bit longer thereby keeping precipitation out of our CWA until Sunday
night. Precipitation chances still look better Sunday night and
Monday as these features track across the region. Instability
parameters now seem strong enough to warrant the mention of thunder
Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday.

Showers on the back side of the aforementioned system may linger
over the southeast sections of our CWA Monday night. Rather low
confidence in this period due to model discrepancies.

Temperatures near normal at the beginning of the period are expected
to warm to just above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all forecast terminals through
tonight. South/southeast winds will pick up around 10 knots by mid
to late morning, with some higher gusts possible by afternoon, then
diminish by sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 161142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Early morning ASOS/AWOS observations from local airports indicated
temperatures were close to freezing across much of the forecast area.
Mesonet observations from across the region revealed sub freezing
temperatures covering much of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana,
and western Kentucky. Most of the observation sites in southeast
Missouri were still above freezing as of 08Z. A very light wind
persisted at some locations overnight, which has likely contributed
to the slightly warmer readings in spots. However, as we progress
through daybreak, a drop of another degree or two should take most
locations to or below 32 degrees before sunrise. Even if sites do
not reach freezing, it is likely that a decent amount of frost
will be present by daybreak. As a result, we plan to continue the
Freeze Warning for the entire area through its expiration time of
9 am.

Beyond this morning`s freeze, the main story in the short term is
the warming trend anticipated through late week as southerly flow
develops on the back side of departing high pressure. Highs today
are forecast to reach close to 60, with readings well into the 60s
on Thursday. The sharpening pressure gradient will result in the
development of gusty winds this afternoon, particularly across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. In addition, minimum
relative humidity will likely range between 25 and 30 percent, and
perhaps even lower depending upon site exposure. However, with
fuel moisture still elevated from recent rains, we do not believe
conditions will warrant any fire weather headlines at this point.
Another cold night is expected tonight, but with a light southeast
breeze, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than this
morning. With lows in the upper 30s, some patchy frost cannot be
ruled out in sheltered areas.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday ahead of a disorganized
system approaching from the Plains. Forecast models have had a
difficult time resolving this particular system. A few days back,
rain looked to be a near certainty on Friday. Now however, given
the model depicted weak forcing for lift and poor moisture return,
it would not be surprising if Thursday night and Friday turned
out dry. As it is though, I am not ready to completely remove
precipitation quite yet. However, rain chances will be substantially
reduced and focused during a narrow window from late Thursday night
into Friday morning. Where rain does occur, it should be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

At the beginning of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should make for dry conditions and
near normal temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave may
bring precipitation chances into the far western sections of our CWA
as early as Sunday afternoon, however models not in the best
agreement on this. The ECMWF/SREF show the H5 ridging holding fast a
bit longer thereby keeping precipitation out of our CWA until Sunday
night. Precipitation chances still look better Sunday night and
Monday as these features track across the region. Instability
parameters now seem strong enough to warrant the mention of thunder
Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday.

Showers on the back side of the aforementioned system may linger
over the southeast sections of our CWA Monday night. Rather low
confidence in this period due to model discrepancies.

Temperatures near normal at the beginning of the period are expected
to warm to just above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all forecast terminals through
tonight. South/southeast winds will pick up around 10 knots by mid
to late morning, with some higher gusts possible by afternoon, then
diminish by sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 160842
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Early morning ASOS/AWOS observations from local airports indicated
temperatures were close to freezing across much of the forecast area.
Mesonet observations from across the region revealed sub freezing
temperatures covering much of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana,
and western Kentucky. Most of the observation sites in southeast
Missouri were still above freezing as of 08Z. A very light wind
persisted at some locations overnight, which has likely contributed
to the slightly warmer readings in spots. However, as we progress
through daybreak, a drop of another degree or two should take most
locations to or below 32 degrees before sunrise. Even if sites do
not reach freezing, it is likely that a decent amount of frost
will be present by daybreak. As a result, we plan to continue the
Freeze Warning for the entire area through its expiration time of
9 am.

Beyond this morning`s freeze, the main story in the short term is
the warming trend anticipated through late week as southerly flow
develops on the back side of departing high pressure. Highs today
are forecast to reach close to 60, with readings well into the 60s
on Thursday. The sharpening pressure gradient will result in the
development of gusty winds this afternoon, particularly across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. In addition, minimum
relative humidity will likely range between 25 and 30 percent, and
perhaps even lower depending upon site exposure. However, with
fuel moisture still elevated from recent rains, we do not believe
conditions will warrant any fire weather headlines at this point.
Another cold night is expected tonight, but with a light southeast
breeze, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than this
morning. With lows in the upper 30s, some patchy frost cannot be
ruled out in sheltered areas.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday ahead of a disorganized
system approaching from the Plains. Forecast models have had a
difficult time resolving this particular system. A few days back,
rain looked to be a near certainty on Friday. Now however, given
the model depicted weak forcing for lift and poor moisture return,
it would not be surprising if Thursday night and Friday turned
out dry. As it is though, I am not ready to completely remove
precipitation quite yet. However, rain chances will be substantially
reduced and focused during a narrow window from late Thursday night
into Friday morning. Where rain does occur, it should be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

At the beginning of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should make for dry conditions and
near normal temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave may
bring precipitation chances into the far western sections of our CWA
as early as Sunday afternoon, however models not in the best
agreement on this. The ECMWF/SREF show the H5 ridging holding fast a
bit longer thereby keeping precipitation out of our CWA until Sunday
night. Precipitation chances still look better Sunday night and
Monday as these features track across the region. Instability
parameters now seem strong enough to warrant the mention of thunder
Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday.

Showers on the back side of the aforementioned system may linger
over the southeast sections of our CWA Monday night. Rather low
confidence in this period due to model discrepancies.

Temperatures near normal at the beginning of the period are expected
to warm to just above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Under a veil of scattered thin cirrus clouds, winds will go nearly
calm and veer to the se overnight. After daybreak, as the center of
high sfc pressure moves off to the east, the sfc pressure gradient
will tighten a bit, especially west of the MS River, yielding gusts
15-20 kts in the afternoon, then diminishing by sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB










000
FXUS63 KPAH 160442
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Updated the aviation section only.

&&

UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Just sent out a minor update for very short term trends through
the evening. The freeze forecast is on track, and the freeze
warning looks good. No changes to the headline are planned this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Will maintain our Freeze Warning. No change with near calm winds,
clear skies and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will
result in a hard freeze some areas, with a good frost potential as
well, as high pressure moves across the area.

High pressure will be off to the east of the area Wednesday.
Return flow/waa will allow temps to moderate after a cool day
today. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. With lows in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s sheltered
areas Wednesday night, cannot rule out patchy frost. Not enough
concern to headline at this time.

Upper trof is forecast to move through Thursday night. This
feature should trigger some shower activity across the area,
especially after midnight. Better chances will exist across the
NW 1/2 of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The start of the extended forecast period (Friday), from a model
perspective, appears to become more of an non-event compared to the
guidance last week. Although the forecast signal remains consistent,
the fast zonal flow moving across the Northern Pacific that
developed a couple of days ago is playing havoc with the timing of
minor, embedded shortwaves moving across the northern 1/3rd of the
U.S.

The aforementioned pattern change has placed the WFO PAH forecast
area in a quite variable weather regime, essentially caught in a
split flow.

The last 2 to 3 model runs of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, as
well as GFS Ensembles and NAM/GFS standard deviations from normal
lean toward a mediocre return of moisture as the shortwave moves
through the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. Although high PoPs were
have been the going trend (even up yesterday) for Friday, a
significant reduction to chance or slight chance category had to be
put in place today.

The system for Sunday and into Monday of next week becomes more
disorganized as the GEM/GFS/ECMWF handle the timing and phasing of
northern and southern stream shortwaves in a different manner. The
overall trend is a weaker and slower onset of precipitation into the
WFO PAH forecast area on Sunday. This is somewhat consistent with
earlier model runs and was considered with this package.

There is limited instability for both the Friday system, as well as
the system moving through on Monday. Added a limited spatial and
areal coverage of thunderstorms to these forecast periods, but do
not anticipate any widespread severe weather.

Temperature wise, the WFO PAH forecast area remains at or below
normal through Sunday, gradually warming above normal on Monday and
Tuesday as weak ridging moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Under a veil of scattered thin cirrus clouds, winds will go nearly
calm and veer to the se overnight. After daybreak, as the center of
high sfc pressure moves off to the east, the sfc pressure gradient
will tighten a bit, especially west of the MS River, yielding gusts
15-20 kts in the afternoon, then diminishing by sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB










000
FXUS63 KPAH 160134
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
834 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Just sent out a minor update for very short term trends through
the evening. The freeze forecast is on track, and the freeze
warning looks good. No changes to the headline are planned this
evening.

Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Updated aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Will maintain our Freeze Warning. No change with near calm winds,
clear skies and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will
result in a hard freeze some areas, with a good frost potential as
well, as high pressure moves across the area.

High pressure will be off to the east of the area Wednesday.
Return flow/waa will allow temps to moderate after a cool day
today. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. With lows in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s sheltered
areas Wednesday night, cannot rule out patchy frost. Not enough
concern to headline at this time.

Upper trof is forecast to move through Thursday night. This
feature should trigger some shower activity across the area,
especially after midnight. Better chances will exist across the
NW 1/2 of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The start of the extended forecast period (Friday), from a model
perspective, appears to become more of an non-event compared to the
guidance last week. Although the forecast signal remains consistent,
the fast zonal flow moving across the Northern Pacific that
developed a couple of days ago is playing havoc with the timing of
minor, embedded shortwaves moving across the northern 1/3rd of the
U.S.

The aforementioned pattern change has placed the WFO PAH forecast
area in a quite variable weather regime, essentially caught in a
split flow.

The last 2 to 3 model runs of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, as
well as GFS Ensembles and NAM/GFS standard deviations from normal
lean toward a mediocre return of moisture as the shortwave moves
through the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. Although high PoPs were
have been the going trend (even up yesterday) for Friday, a
significant reduction to chance or slight chance category had to be
put in place today.

The system for Sunday and into Monday of next week becomes more
disorganized as the GEM/GFS/ECMWF handle the timing and phasing of
northern and southern stream shortwaves in a different manner. The
overall trend is a weaker and slower onset of precipitation into the
WFO PAH forecast area on Sunday. This is somewhat consistent with
earlier model runs and was considered with this package.

There is limited instability for both the Friday system, as well as
the system moving through on Monday. Added a limited spatial and
areal coverage of thunderstorms to these forecast periods, but do
not anticipate any widespread severe weather.

Temperature wise, the WFO PAH forecast area remains at or below
normal through Sunday, gradually warming above normal on Monday and
Tuesday as weak ridging moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 638 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Any lingering clouds over swrn IN and adjacent areas will dissipate
rapidly this evening, as winds go nearly calm and veer to the se
overnight. After daybreak, as the center of high sfc pressure moves
off to the east, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten a bit,
especially west of the MS River, yielding gusts above 15 kts in the
afternoon. The only clouds overnight and Wed will be thin cirrus.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB








000
FXUS63 KPAH 152338
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Will maintain our Freeze Warning. No change with near calm winds,
clear skies and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will
result in a hard freeze some areas, with a good frost potential as
well, as high pressure moves across the area.

High pressure will be off to the east of the area Wednesday.
Return flow/waa will allow temps to moderate after a cool day
today. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. With lows in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s sheltered
areas Wednesday night, cannot rule out patchy frost. Not enough
concern to headline at this time.

Upper trof is forecast to move through Thursday night. This
feature should trigger some shower activity across the area,
especially after midnight. Better chances will exist across the
NW 1/2 of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The start of the extended forecast period (Friday), from a model
perspective, appears to become more of an non-event compared to the
guidance last week. Although the forecast signal remains consistent,
the fast zonal flow moving across the Northern Pacific that
developed a couple of days ago is playing havoc with the timing of
minor, embedded shortwaves moving across the northern 1/3rd of the
U.S.

The aforementioned pattern change has placed the WFO PAH forecast
area in a quite variable weather regime, essentially caught in a
split flow.

The last 2 to 3 model runs of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, as
well as GFS Ensembles and NAM/GFS standard deviations from normal
lean toward a mediocre return of moisture as the shortwave moves
through the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. Although high PoPs were
have been the going trend (even up yesterday) for Friday, a
significant reduction to chance or slight chance category had to be
put in place today.

The system for Sunday and into Monday of next week becomes more
disorganized as the GEM/GFS/ECMWF handle the timing and phasing of
northern and southern stream shortwaves in a different manner. The
overall trend is a weaker and slower onset of precipitation into the
WFO PAH forecast area on Sunday. This is somewhat consistent with
earlier model runs and was considered with this package.

There is limited instability for both the Friday system, as well as
the system moving through on Monday. Added a limited spatial and
areal coverage of thunderstorms to these forecast periods, but do
not anticipate any widespread severe weather.

Temperature wise, the WFO PAH forecast area remains at or below
normal through Sunday, gradually warming above normal on Monday and
Tuesday as weak ridging moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 638 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Any lingering clouds over swrn IN and adjacent areas will dissipate
rapidly this evening, as winds go nearly calm and veer to the se
overnight. After daybreak, as the center of high sfc pressure moves
off to the east, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten a bit,
especially west of the MS River, yielding gusts above 15 kts in the
afternoon. The only clouds overnight and Wed will be thin cirrus.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DB










000
FXUS63 KPAH 152015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Will maintain our Freeze Warning. No change with near calm winds,
clear skies and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will
result in a hard freeze some areas, with a good frost potential as
well, as high pressure moves across the area.

High pressure will be off to the east of the area Wednesday.
Return flow/waa will allow temps to moderate after a cool day
today. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. With lows in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s sheltered
areas Wednesday night, cannot rule out patchy frost. Not enough
concern to headline at this time.

Upper trof is forecast to move through Thursday night. This
feature should trigger some shower activity across the area,
especially after midnight. Better chances will exist across the
NW 1/2 of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The start of the extended forecast period (Friday), from a model
perspective, appears to become more of an non-event compared to the
guidance last week. Although the forecast signal remains consistent,
the fast zonal flow moving across the Northern Pacific that
developed a couple of days ago is playing havoc with the timing of
minor, embedded shortwaves moving across the northern 1/3rd of the
U.S.

The aforementioned pattern change has placed the WFO PAH forecast
area is quite variable weather regime, essentially caught in a split
flow.

The last 2 to 3 model runs of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, as
well as GFS Ensembles and NAM/GFS standard deviations from normal
lean toward a mediocre return of moisture as the shortwave moves
through the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. Although high PoPs were
have been the going trend (even up yesterday) for Friday, a
significant reduction to chance or slight chance category had to be
put in place today.

The system for Sunday and into Monday of next week becomes more
disorganized as the GEM/GFS/ECMWF handle the timing and phasing of
northern and southern stream shortwaves in a different manner. The
overall trend is a weaker and slower onset of precipitation into the
WFO PAH forecast area on Sunday. This is somewhat consistent with
earlier model runs and was considered with this package.

There is limited instability for both the Friday system, as well as
the system moving through on Monday. Added a limited spatial and
areal coverage of thunderstorms to these forecast periods, but do
not anticipate any widespread severe weather.

Temperature wise, the WFO PAH forecast area remains at or below
normal through Sunday, gradually warming above normal on Monday and
Tuesday as weak ridging moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR conditions tonight and early Wednesday. Gusty NNW winds will
become calm tonight, then turn SE up to 10 kts Wednesday morning.
Area of CU east of a line from KMVN to KCEY will gradually
diminish through the afternoon, followed by SKC area wide for the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 151725
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Updated the aviation section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Most of the widespread precipitation has shifted east of the area
early this morning. The few showers left across southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky around 08Z should
depart by daybreak. Thereafter, the primary near term focus is the
potential for a freeze tonight.

As an upper level trough begins to shift east of the region today,
a surface ridge of high pressure will build east from the Plains.
A respectable pressure gradient will keep gusty winds across the
area through at least mid afternoon. Despite the strong April sun,
cold air advection will likely keep highs in the upper 40s and
lower 50s this afternoon.

With the surface high overhead tonight, clear skies and calm
winds will result in excellent radiational cooling. This will
allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. By Wednesday
morning, lows are forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s across
the entire forecast area. For this reason, we will upgrade the
Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight. In addition to a
freeze, areas of frost are also expected.

Early Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will extend from the
Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. As it continues to move
east, southeast winds and a resultant moderating trend will take
hold as we head into late week. Highs Wednesday will range around
the 60 degree mark, then surge well into the 60s on Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s with a light wind. This
should be enough to keep frost from becoming much of an issue.
However, some very patchy frost is not totally out of the question
in outlying areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The approach of an inverted surface trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances into our area starting
Thursday night. Precipitation chances will be greatest on Friday as
the aforementioned features actually cross the region.
Precipitation chances will linger over the far eastern sections of
our CWA Friday night in the last of the wrap around moisture of the
departing system. Instability parameters were slightly lacking with
this system, so kept the mention of thunder out for the time being.

For those planning outdoor activities this Saturday and Saturday
night, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should
keep the area dry with temperatures slightly below normal. The
approach of yet another surface front/trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances back to approximately the
northwest half of our CWA on Easter Sunday. Precipitation chances
increase Sunday night and Monday as these features track across the
region. Again instability parameters not strong enough to warrant
the mention of thunder with this system.

Temperatures on Friday are expected to be well below normal but will
moderate to just below normal from Saturday through the remainder of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR conditions tonight and early Wednesday. Gusty NNW winds will
become calm tonight, then turn SE up to 10 kts Wednesday morning.
Area of CU east of a line from KMVN to KCEY will gradually
diminish through the afternoon, followed by SKC area wide for the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 151141
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. Also plan a forecast
update for the expiration of this morning`s Freeze Warning by 8 am.
The Freeze Warning for Wednesday morning will remain in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Most of the widespread precipitation has shifted east of the area
early this morning. The few showers left across southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky around 08Z should
depart by daybreak. Thereafter, the primary near term focus is the
potential for a freeze tonight.

As an upper level trough begins to shift east of the region today,
a surface ridge of high pressure will build east from the Plains.
A respectable pressure gradient will keep gusty winds across the
area through at least mid afternoon. Despite the strong April sun,
cold air advection will likely keep highs in the upper 40s and
lower 50s this afternoon.

With the surface high overhead tonight, clear skies and calm
winds will result in excellent radiational cooling. This will
allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. By Wednesday
morning, lows are forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s across
the entire forecast area. For this reason, we will upgrade the
Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight. In addition to a
freeze, areas of frost are also expected.

Early Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will extend from the
Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. As it continues to move
east, southeast winds and a resultant moderating trend will take
hold as we head into late week. Highs Wednesday will range around
the 60 degree mark, then surge well into the 60s on Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s with a light wind. This
should be enough to keep frost from becoming much of an issue.
However, some very patchy frost is not totally out of the question
in outlying areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The approach of an inverted surface trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances into our area starting
Thursday night. Precipitation chances will be greatest on Friday as
the aforementioned features actually cross the region.
Precipitation chances will linger over the far eastern sections of
our CWA Friday night in the last of the wrap around moisture of the
departing system. Instability parameters were slightly lacking with
this system, so kept the mention of thunder out for the time being.

For those planning outdoor activities this Saturday and Saturday
night, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should
keep the area dry with temperatures slightly below normal. The
approach of yet another surface front/trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances back to approximately the
northwest half of our CWA on Easter Sunday. Precipitation chances
increase Sunday night and Monday as these features track across the
region. Again instability parameters not strong enough to warrant
the mention of thunder with this system.

Temperatures on Friday are expected to be well below normal but will
moderate to just below normal from Saturday through the remainder of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Once skies clear at KEVV and KOWB by 14Z, VFR conditions are
expected at all forecast terminals over the next 24 hours. Some
scattered stratocumulus may develop in the heat of the day,
particularly at KEVV and KOWB. Gusty northwest winds today will
diminish late this afternoon and become nearly calm tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 150751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
251 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Most of the widespread precipitation has shifted east of the area
early this morning. The few showers left across southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky around 08Z should
depart by daybreak. Thereafter, the primary near term focus is the
potential for a freeze tonight.

As an upper level trough begins to shift east of the region today,
a surface ridge of high pressure will build east from the Plains.
A respectable pressure gradient will keep gusty winds across the
area through at least mid afternoon. Despite the strong April sun,
cold air advection will likely keep highs in the upper 40s and
lower 50s this afternoon.

With the surface high overhead tonight, clear skies and calm
winds will result in excellent radiational cooling. This will
allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. By Wednesday
morning, lows are forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s across
the entire forecast area. For this reason, we will upgrade the
Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight.

Early Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will extend from the
Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. As it continues to move
east, southeast winds and a resultant moderating trend will take
hold as we head into late week. Highs Wednesday will range around
the 60 degree mark, then surge well into the 60s on Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the upper 30s with a light wind. This
should be enough to keep frost from becoming much of an issue.
However, some very patchy frost is not totally out of the question
in outlying areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The approach of an inverted surface trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances into our area starting
Thursday night. Precipitation chances will be greatest on Friday as
the aforementioned features actually cross the region.
Precipitation chances will linger over the far eastern sections of
our CWA Friday night in the last of the wrap around moisture of the
departing system. Instability parameters were slightly lacking with
this system, so kept the mention of thunder out for the time being.

For those planning outdoor activities this Saturday and Saturday
night, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should
keep the area dry with temperatures slightly below normal. The
approach of yet another surface front/trough and attendant H5 short
wave will bring precipitation chances back to approximately the
northwest half of our CWA on Easter Sunday. Precipitation chances
increase Sunday night and Monday as these features track across the
region. Again instability parameters not strong enough to warrant
the mention of thunder with this system.

Temperatures on Friday are expected to be well below normal but will
moderate to just below normal from Saturday through the remainder of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Expect gusty nwrly to nrly sfc winds to stay up behind a cold
front overnight and well into Tue as a colder air mass continues to
move in from the west, just ahead of an upper shrtwv. Widespread
light rain over the ern half of the region will be nearly out of the
region by around midnight, and may be followed by a short period of
light showers for the KEVV/KOWB terminals. Clearing of skies for the
wrn half of the region is expected before sunrise, and some VFR cigs
may linger for part of the morning in the ern third of the region
before breaking up. Winds will subside by sunset Tue.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ075-076-
     080>082-084>086-088-089-092-093.

     FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>111.

     FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB










000
FXUS63 KPAH 150455
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

UPDATE...
Updated aviation section only.

&&

UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Made some minor adjustments through the night in most elements, but
the previous update is in pretty good shape. Debated about adding
the Wabash River counties of southern Illinois into the Freeze
Warning, but that is just to close to call. If those areas touch 32
degrees it would very briefly right near sunrise. Will resend the
Freeze Warning as is. Winds will remain gusty all night, which will
keep frost from being an issue, but it will take wind chills into
the mid 20s by daybreak. Better bundle up for the bus stop tomorrow.

UPDATE Issued at 717 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Just overhauled the forecast for tonight. The band of precipitation
that was producing snow over central Missouri this afternoon, has
lifted northeast, and should not impact our northwestern areas. The
back edge of the measurable rain extends from the Missouri Bootheel
northeast through southeast Illinois as of 2330Z. This area will
slowly push eastward through the evening hours. Also, it appears
that the thunder threat has shifted east of the area. With the
precipitation coming to a quicker end from west to east this
evening, the potential for snow is very low. Removed the mention of
snow from most locations, and also the thunder from early this
evening. Will have to watch trends this evening, just in case the
snow potential increases, but see no way that it would amount to
anything.

As for the freeze warning, it looks ok. We seem to be running ahead
of the forecast for cooling early this evening, but given that there
are no freezing temperatures to be seen within a reasonable distance
upstream, figure that the current forecast of temperatures near and
just below freezing will suffice. Will monitor trends through the
evening, but do not foresee any major adjustments to the freeze
warning at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Convection increased as expected from AR and into the SW part of
the CWFA this afternoon. The NAM had a decent handle on this. Will
follow its lead through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Thunder as expected as well as elevated instability is
still present over the SE 1/3 of the region. Will also increase
PoPs from the west, as a large area of precip (including snow)
over MO moves east ahead of the parent upper trof seen on Water
Vapor moving east from the Plains. Will transition from the
convective chances SE, rain/drizzle elsewhere, to rain through the
evening, which may mix with or fall as some snow over mainly the
NNW part of the area. No accumulation.

After midnight, should clear out rapidly from west to east. Went
ahead with a Freeze Warning west of a Fairfield, IL to Poplar
Bluff, MO line as temperatures are forecast to fall to near
freezing there. Should not be a hard freeze. But forecast temps
warrant the warning per guidance. Better chance of a hard freeze
will occur Wednesday morning with lighter winds area wide and lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, slightly longer duration as well,
and frost.

Otherwise Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dry. Cool
Tuesday, then back into the upper 50s or so Wednesday as surface
high pressure moves east across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The persistent signal presented last week in the medium range
numerical model suite, suggested a strong, more negatively tilted
system, with copious amounts of rainfall.

However, looking at the near end of the extended forecast period
(Friday), the middle level flow displays a significantly weaker
positive tilt shortwave in approximately the same location as the
earlier deeper, closed upper low. In fact, even the deep convective
instability associated with this system is almost non-existent for
thunderstorms, suggesting primarily a showery system.

In order to reflect a more realistic transition for the
introduction/transition/departure of PoPs and weather for the Friday
system, the time period was reduced to a six hour time frame, with
the highest PoPs still centered during the day on Friday.  Slightly
increased the coverage of the higher PoPs on Friday to reflect the
increasingly stronger signal.

There remains some disparity in model solutions for the next weather
system in northwest flow behind the Friday weather system. The GFS
Ensemble mean and deterministic 00z/12z Monday ECMWF were more
similar in solution and were used as a base template for PoPs and
Weather for Sunday into Monday of next week. Went with a lower PoP
(chance) event. Given the limited instability, no mention of thunder
and a light QPF was assigned to this weather event.

Although Maximum temperatures will range from zero to ten degrees
below normal for this time of year during the extended forecast
period, minimum temperatures should hold near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Expect gusty nwrly to nrly sfc winds to stay up behind a cold
front overnight and well into Tue as a colder air mass continues to
move in from the west, just ahead of an upper shrtwv. Widespread
light rain over the ern half of the region will be nearly out of the
region by around midnight, and may be followed by a short period of
light showers for the KEVV/KOWB terminals. Clearing of skies for the
wrn half of the region is expected before sunrise, and some VFR cigs
may linger for part of the morning in the ern third of the region
before breaking up. Winds will subside by sunset Tue.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-
     084>086-088-089-092-093.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>111.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB










000
FXUS63 KPAH 150246
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Made some minor adjustments through the night in most elements,
but the previous update is in pretty good shape. Debated about
adding a the Wabash River counties of southern Illinois into the
Freeze Warning, but that it is just to close to call. If those
areas touch 32 degrees it would very briefly right near sunrise.
Will resent the Freeze Warning as is. Winds will remain gusty all
night, which will keep frost from being an issue, but it will take
wind chills into the mid 20s by daybreak. Better bundle up for the
bus stop tomorrow.

UPDATE Issued at 717 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Updated aviation section.

Just overhauled the forecast for tonight. The band of precipitation
that was producing snow over central Missouri this afternoon, has
lifted northeast, and should not impact our northwestern areas. The
back edge of the measurable rain extends from the Missouri Bootheel
northeast through southeast Illinois as of 2330Z. This area will
slowly push eastward through the evening hours. Also, it appears
that the thunder threat has shifted east of the area. With the
precipitation coming to a quicker end from west to east this
evening, the potential for snow is very low. Removed the mention of
snow from most locations, and also the thunder from early this
evening. Will have to watch trends this evening, just in case the
snow potential increases, but see no way that it would amount to
anything.

As for the freeze warning, it looks ok. We seem to be running ahead
of the forecast for cooling early this evening, but given that there
are no freezing temperatures to be seen within a reasonable distance
upstream, figure that the current forecast of temperatures near and
just below freezing will suffice. Will monitor trends through the
evening, but do not foresee any major adjustments to the freeze
warning at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Convection increased as expected from AR and into the SW part of
the CWFA this afternoon. The NAM had a decent handle on this. Will
follow its lead through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Thunder as expected as well as elevated instability is
still present over the SE 1/3 of the region. Will also increase
PoPs from the west, as a large area of precip (including snow)
over MO moves east ahead of the parent upper trof seen on Water
Vapor moving east from the Plains. Will transition from the
convective chances SE, rain/drizzle elsewhere, to rain through the
evening, which may mix with or fall as some snow over mainly the
NNW part of the area. No accumulation.

After midnight, should clear out rapidly from west to east. Went
ahead with a Freeze Warning west of a Fairfield, IL to Poplar
Bluff, MO line as temperatures are forecast to fall to near
freezing there. Should not be a hard freeze. But forecast temps
warrant the warning per guidance. Better chance of a hard freeze
will occur Wednesday morning with lighter winds area wide and lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, slightly longer duration as well,
and frost.

Otherwise Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dry. Cool
Tuesday, then back into the upper 50s or so Wednesday as surface
high pressure moves east across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The persistent signal presented last week in the medium range
numerical model suite, suggested a strong, more negatively tilted
system, with copious amounts of rainfall.

However, looking at the near end of the extended forecast period
(Friday), the middle level flow displays a significantly weaker
positive tilt shortwave in approximately the same location as the
earlier deeper, closed upper low. In fact, even the deep convective
instability associated with this system is almost non-existent for
thunderstorms, suggesting primarily a showery system.

In order to reflect a more realistic transition for the
introduction/transition/departure of PoPs and weather for the Friday
system, the time period was reduced to a six hour time frame, with
the highest PoPs still centered during the day on Friday.  Slightly
increased the coverage of the higher PoPs on Friday to reflect the
increasingly stronger signal.

There remains some disparity in model solutions for the next weather
system in northwest flow behind the Friday weather system. The GFS
Ensemble mean and deterministic 00z/12z Monday ECMWF were more
similar in solution and were used as a base template for PoPs and
Weather for Sunday into Monday of next week. Went with a lower PoP
(chance) event. Given the limited instability, no mention of thunder
and a light QPF was assigned to this weather event.

Although Maximum temperatures will range from zero to ten degrees
below normal for this time of year during the extended forecast
period, minimum temperatures should hold near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Expect gusty nwrly to nrly sfc winds to stay up behind a cold
front overnight and well into Tue as a colder air mass continues
to move in from the west, just ahead of an upper shrtwv. Light
rain over the ern half of the region is expected to move out of
the region by around midnight, but there is a possibility of vsby-
restricting drizzle with the MVFR cloud deck. Some short-term data
indicates that there may be enough lift in the lower trop for IFR
cigs in the ern third of the PAH forecast area from mid evening
into the wee hours, and this may squeeze drizzle out of the clouds
beyond the time of rain cessation. If drizzle becomes more likely,
the TAFs will be updated to reflect this.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-
     084>086-088-089-092-093.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>111.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB








000
FXUS63 KPAH 150018
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
718 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Updated aviation section.

Just overhauled the forecast for tonight. The band of precipitation
that was producing snow over central Missouri this afternoon, has
lifted northeast, and should not impact our northwestern areas. The
back edge of the measurable rain extends from the Missouri Bootheel
northeast through southeast Illinois as of 2330Z. This area will
slowly push eastward through the evening hours. Also, it appears
that the thunder threat has shifted east of the area. With the
precipitation coming to a quicker end from west to east this
evening, the potential for snow is very low. Removed the mention of
snow from most locations, and also the thunder from early this
evening. Will have to watch trends this evening, just in case the
snow potential increases, but see no way that it would amount to
anything.

As for the freeze warning, it looks ok. We seem to be running ahead
of the forecast for cooling early this evening, but given that there
are no freezing temperatures to be seen within a reasonable distance
upstream, figure that the current forecast of temperatures near and
just below freezing will suffice. Will monitor trends through the
evening, but do not foresee any major adjustments to the freeze
warning at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Convection increased as expected from AR and into the SW part of
the CWFA this afternoon. The NAM had a decent handle on this. Will
follow its lead through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Thunder as expected as well as elevated instability is
still present over the SE 1/3 of the region. Will also increase
PoPs from the west, as a large area of precip (including snow)
over MO moves east ahead of the parent upper trof seen on Water
Vapor moving east from the Plains. Will transition from the
convective chances SE, rain/drizzle elsewhere, to rain through the
evening, which may mix with or fall as some snow over mainly the
NNW part of the area. No accumulation.

After midnight, should clear out rapidly from west to east. Went
ahead with a Freeze Warning west of a Fairfield, IL to Poplar
Bluff, MO line as temperatures are forecast to fall to near
freezing there. Should not be a hard freeze. But forecast temps
warrant the warning per guidance. Better chance of a hard freeze
will occur Wednesday morning with lighter winds area wide and lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, slightly longer duration as well,
and frost.

Otherwise Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dry. Cool
Tuesday, then back into the upper 50s or so Wednesday as surface
high pressure moves east across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The persistent signal presented last week in the medium range
numerical model suite, suggested a strong, more negatively tilted
system, with copious amounts of rainfall.

However, looking at the near end of the extended forecast period
(Friday), the middle level flow displays a significantly weaker
positive tilt shortwave in approximately the same location as the
earlier deeper, closed upper low. In fact, even the deep convective
instability associated with this system is almost non-existent for
thunderstorms, suggesting primarily a showery system.

In order to reflect a more realistic transition for the
introduction/transition/departure of PoPs and weather for the Friday
system, the time period was reduced to a six hour time frame, with
the highest PoPs still centered during the day on Friday.  Slightly
increased the coverage of the higher PoPs on Friday to reflect the
increasingly stronger signal.

There remains some disparity in model solutions for the next weather
system in northwest flow behind the Friday weather system. The GFS
Ensemble mean and deterministic 00z/12z Monday ECMWF were more
similar in solution and were used as a base template for PoPs and
Weather for Sunday into Monday of next week. Went with a lower PoP
(chance) event. Given the limited instability, no mention of thunder
and a light QPF was assigned to this weather event.

Although Maximum temperatures will range from zero to ten degrees
below normal for this time of year during the extended forecast
period, minimum temperatures should hold near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Expect gusty nwrly to nrly sfc winds to stay up behind a cold
front overnight and well into Tue as a colder air mass continues
to move in from the west, just ahead of an upper shrtwv. Light
rain over the ern half of the region is expected to move out of
the region by around midnight, but there is a possibility of vsby-
restricting drizzle with the MVFR cloud deck. Some short-term data
indicates that there may be enough lift in the lower trop for IFR
cigs in the ern third of the PAH forecast area from mid evening
into the wee hours, and this may squeeze drizzle out of the clouds
beyond the time of rain cessation. If drizzle becomes more likely,
the TAFs will be updated to reflect this.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     ILZ075-076-080>082-084>086-088-089-092-093.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB








000
FXUS63 KPAH 141947
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Convection increased as expected from AR and into the SW part of
the CWFA this afternoon. The NAM had a decent handle on this. Will
follow its lead through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Thunder as expected as well as elevated instability is
still present over the SE 1/3 of the region. Will also increase
PoPs from the west, as a large area of precip (including snow)
over MO moves east ahead of the parent upper trof seen on Water
Vapor moving east from the Plains. Will transition from the
convective chances SE, rain/drizzle elsewhere, to rain through the
evening, which may mix with or fall as some snow over mainly the
NNW part of the area. No accumulation.

After midnight, should clear out rapidly from west to east. Went
ahead with a Freeze Warning west of a Fairfield, IL to Poplar
Bluff, MO line as temperatures are forecast to fall to near
freezing there. Should not be a hard freeze. But forecast temps
warrant the warning per guidance. Better chance of a hard freeze
will occur Wednesday morning with lighter winds area wide and lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, slightly longer duration as well,
and frost.

Otherwise Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dry. Cool
Tuesday, then back into the upper 50s or so Wednesday as surface
high pressure moves east across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The persistent signal presented last week in the medium range
numerical model suite, suggested a strong, more negatively tilted
system, with copious amounts of rainfall.

However, looking at the near end of the extended forecast period
(Friday), the middle level flow displays a significantly weaker
positive tilt shortwave in approximately the same location as the
earlier deeper, closed upper low. In fact, even the deep convective
instability associated with this system is almost non-existent for
thunderstorms, suggesting primarily a showery system.

In order to reflect a more realistic transition for the
introduction/transition/departure of PoPs and weather for the Friday
system, the time period was reduced to a six hour time frame, with
the highest PoPs still centered during the day on Friday.  Slightly
increased the coverage of the higher PoPs on Friday to reflect the
increasingly stronger signal.

There remains some disparity in model solutions for the next weather
system in northwest flow behind the Friday weather system. The GFS
Ensemble mean and deterministic 00z/12z Monday ECMWF were more
similar in solution and were used as a base template for PoPs and
Weather for Sunday into Monday of next week. Went with a lower PoP
(chance) event. Given the limited instability, no mention of thunder
and a light QPF was assigned to this weather event.

Although Maximum temperatures will range from zero to ten degrees
below normal for this time of year during the extended forecast
period, minimum temperatures should hold near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Cold front from near KEVV to just east of KPAH will continue east.
Main upper trof still over the Plains will move east this
afternoon and tonight. Expect some increase in rain/shower/drizzle
activity with its approach. Generally MVFR sct-bkn conditions with
IFR possible at times primarily with precipitation. Should clear
out from west to east after 06z tonight through tomorrow morning.
Generally NW winds 10 to 20 kts post front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     ILZ075-076-080>082-084>086-088-089-092-093.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 141657
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1157 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Will issue a Freeze Warning for tonight, generally west of a
Fairfield, IL to Poplar Bluff, MO line, with temperatures forecast
to fall to or just below 32F late tonight. Freeze Watch for
tomorrow night remains in tact, as a more widespread killing
freeze will be likely.

Not much going on, on radar. We do expect an increase in shower
activity, more rain and drizzle with the approach of the upper
level trof still over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Maintained a
slight chance of thunder over the SE 1/3 of the area given
lingering marginal instability there. Temperatures and timing the
front through generally on track.

Updated the aviation section as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Active/Ongoing convection is the primary near term challenge. The
first prefrontal line of storms is just departing the FA to the
east at this writing. It contained generally 35 mph wind
gusts...though we outlooked its potential for 40 to 50 mph gusts
through the area. One spotter report suggested such but a nearby
same time measured mesonet gust (Cadiz) did not confirm the higher
gust.

Another/secondary convective line is now bearing down on PAH. It
too may produce winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. With both lines,
locally heavy rains could produce ponding of water on roadways. In
general, the svr/convective parameters are lessening with
time/eastward progression. The new swody1 shifts the slgt risk svr
significantly south of our area. Ltg plot shows CG strikes have
all but disappeared, even within the otherwise high dbz/narrow
secondary line moving in on western Ky.

Will continue high PoP today with the upper trof axis making
passage after the surface front does this morning. Thunder risk
will be mainly attendant to along/ahead of the front, i.e. mainly
early this morning, although it may continue into/thru the pm in
our farthest southeastern counties/wky.

The next challenge then becomes the consistently forecast freezing
or sub freezing temps for Tue night-Wed morning. Given this
consistency, and a plethora of nearby offices issuing Freeze
Watches, we`ve decided to join the bandwagon for this event. Site
reference shows local input as either/or and user input as a
positive, so net sum leans toward headline, esp considering we`d
anticipate another degree or two lowering in projected low temps
forecast next couple runs. Add to this the already expected frost
and the watch headline seems appropriate (it is a WATCH).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Main concern in the long term is the potential for showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday night.

Starting with Wednesday night, it appears the pressure gradient will
be strong enough to keep south/southeasterly winds elevated through
the night. This should preclude any concern for frost development as
low temperatures stay close to the 40 degree mark. Thursday will be
much warmer as strong southerly flow develops. Highs on Thursday
will range from the mid to upper 60s.

The approach of strengthening shortwave energy from the Plains will
result in our next round of precipitation by Thursday night and
especially Friday. A convergence in model solutions over the past
few days has resulted in increased confidence in the potential for
showers Thursday night through Friday night. Of the GFS, GEM, and
ECMWF, the ECMWF continues to be the weakest of the three, so we
prefer a blend of the GFS and GEM at this point. As a result, we
have raised precipitation probabilities to likely across much of the
forecast area on Friday.

Model forecast instability continues to be rather meager at this
point, but some weak elevated instability will be present as the
core of the system moves through on Friday. As a result, we kept a
slight chance mention of thunder on Friday, with showers Thursday
night and Friday night.

In the wake of the Friday system, dry weather is expected to start
the weekend as high pressure builds in. Given the Pacific origin of
the air mass, temperatures will remain quite mild through the
weekend. Our next chance of showers may arrive by Sunday and Sunday
night, but confidence is relatively low at this point given poor
model agreement that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Cold front from near KEVV to just east of KPAH will continue east.
Main upper trof still over the Plains will move east this
afternoon and tonight. Expect some increase in rain/shower/drizzle
activity with its approach. Generally MVFR sct-bkn conditions with
IFR possible at times primarily with precipitation. Should clear
out from west to east after 06z tonight through tomorrow morning.
Generally NW winds 10 to 20 kts post front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     ILZ075-076-080>082-084>086-088-089-092-093.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 140737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Active/Ongoing convection is the primary near term challenge. The
first prefrontal line of storms is just departing the FA to the
east at this writing. It contained generally 35 mph wind
gusts...though we outlooked its potential for 40 to 50 mph gusts
through the area. One spotter report suggested such but a nearby
same time measured mesonet gust (Cadiz) did not confirm the higher
gust.

Another/secondary convective line is now bearing down on PAH. It
too may produce winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. With both lines,
locally heavy rains could produce ponding of water on roadways. In
general, the svr/convective parameters are lessening with
time/eastward progression. The new swody1 shifts the slgt risk svr
significantly south of our area. Ltg plot shows CG strikes have
all but disappeared, even within the otherwise high dbz/narrow
secondary line moving in on western Ky.

Will continue high PoP today with the upper trof axis making
passage after the surface front does this morning. Thunder risk
will be mainly attendant to along/ahead of the front, i.e. mainly
early this morning, although it may continue into/thru the pm in
our farthest southeastern counties/wky.

The next challenge then becomes the consistently forecast freezing
or sub freezing temps for Tue night-Wed morning. Given this
consistency, and a plethora of nearby offices issuing Freeze
Watches, we`ve decided to join the bandwagon for this event. Site
reference shows local input as either/or and user input as a
positive, so net sum leans toward headline, esp considering we`d
anticipate another degree or two lowering in projected low temps
forecast next couple runs. Add to this the already expected frost
and the watch headline seems appropriate (it is a WATCH).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Main concern in the long term is the potential for showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday night.

Starting with Wednesday night, it appears the pressure gradient will
be strong enough to keep south/southeasterly winds elevated through
the night. This should preclude any concern for frost development as
low temperatures stay close to the 40 degree mark. Thursday will be
much warmer as strong southerly flow develops. Highs on Thursday
will range from the mid to upper 60s.

The approach of strengthening shortwave energy from the Plains will
result in our next round of precipitation by Thursday night and
especially Friday. A convergence in model solutions over the past
few days has resulted in increased confidence in the potential for
showers Thursday night through Friday night. Of the GFS, GEM, and
ECMWF, the ECMWF continues to be the weakest of the three, so we
prefer a blend of the GFS and GEM at this point. As a result, we
have raised precipitation probabilities to likely across much of the
forecast area on Friday.

Model forecast instability continues to be rather meager at this
point, but some weak elevated instability will be present as the
core of the system moves through on Friday. As a result, we kept a
slight chance mention of thunder on Friday, with showers Thursday
night and Friday night.

In the wake of the Friday system, dry weather is expected to start
the weekend as high pressure builds in. Given the Pacific origin of
the air mass, temperatures will remain quite mild through the
weekend. Our next chance of showers may arrive by Sunday and Sunday
night, but confidence is relatively low at this point given poor
model agreement that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Mix of low VFR cigs/vsbys with convectively induced IFR conditions
will continue thru the early morning hours, as convective bands
move thru the terminals. Daylight should see a see-saw from MVFR to
VFR cigs/vsbys, with continued fairly high probability pcpn
chances until front and upper trof axis swings thru. Gusty winds
will shift from southerlies to west/northwest over the course of
the day as the aforementioned boundaries make their passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 140652
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
152 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Active/Ongoing convection is the primary near term challenge. The
first prefrontal line of storms is just departing the FA to the
east at this writing. It contained generally 35 mph wind
gusts...though we outlooked its potential for 40 to 50 mph gusts
through the area. One spotter report suggested such but a nearby
same time measured mesonet gust (Cadiz) did not confirm the higher
gust.

Another/secondary convective line is now bearing down on PAH. It
too may produce winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. With both lines,
locally heavy rains could produce ponding of water on roadways. In
general, the svr/convective parameters are lessening with
time/eastward progression. The new swody1 shifts the slgt risk svr
significantly south of our area. Ltg plot shows CG strikes have
all but disappeared, even within the otherwise high dbz/narrow
secondary line moving in on western Ky.

Will continue high PoP today with the upper trof axis making
passage after the surface front does this morning. Thunder risk
will be mainly attendant to along/ahead of the front, i.e. mainly
early this morning, although it may continue into/thru the pm in
our farthest southeastern counties/wky.

The next challenge then becomes the consistently forecast freezing
or sub freezing temps for Tue night-Wed morning. Given this
consistency, and a plethora of nearby offices issuing Freeze
Watches, we`ve decided to join the bandwagon for this event. Site
reference shows local input as either/or and user input as a
positive, so net sum leans toward headline, esp considering we`d
anticipate anothe degree or two lowering in projected low temps
forecast next couple runs. Add to this the already expected frost
and the watch headline seems appropriate (it is a WATCH).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

After a frosty morning, a sfc ridge of high pressure will be in the
process of moving off to the ne on Wed, as the mid level flow turns
swrly. This will allow low level return flow (sfc to 850 mb) to pick
up a srly direction by sunset. Sfc temps are expected to rise into
the middle 60s. The PAH forecast area should remain rain-free
through Thu evening as a mid level shrtwv and sfc frontal system
develops in the central Plains. The med range deterministic models,
particularly the ECMWF, have come into better agreement with
solutions for this system, though some differences in the location
of the sfc low (to our north) and forward speed of the system
remain.

Overnight Thu night, rain showers are expected to move into mainly
the wrn half of the region as the sharp trof continues to approach
from the west. Friday looks rather wet, with at least a quarter inch
of rainfall over the region, and up to a half inch possible in the
srn half of the region on average. Due to limited instability, tstms
may occur, but at this time we will forecast slight chance/isold
coverage. The GFS continues to be aggressive with the sharpness of
the mid level trof and the strength of the sfc low/ pressure
gradient. There is too much uncertainty in the predicted moisture
return/instability to speculate on severe wx potential. Fropa will
probably occur late Fri, bringing an end to any lingering showers
Fri night.

Uncertainty among the deterministic models increased after Fri. The
GFS continues to really wrap up shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow
right behind the system, unlike the GEM/ECMWF and the GEFS/ECENS/
NAEFS ensemble means. This would put the PAH forecast area under
cyclonic, then zonal flow aloft, while the ECMWF insists on a brief
period of ridging aloft Fri night through Sat night. It should be
dry nonetheless. The next possibility of pcpn in mainly the nwrn
third of the region might be on Sun, as the GFS/ECMWF depicted
another mid level shrtwv arriving out of the Pacific Northwest.

Air masses behind these fronts appear to be of Pacific origin,
therefore temps are expected to remain mild through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Mix of low VFR cigs/vsbys with convectively induced IFR conditions
will continue thru the early morning hours, as convective bands
move thru the terminals. Daylight should see a see-saw from MVFR to
VFR cigs/vsbys, with continued fairly high probability pcpn
chances until front and upper trof axis swings thru. Gusty winds
will shift from southerlies to west/northwest over the course of
the day as the aforementioned boundaries make their passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 140505
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Showers trying to work into west sections of the area with a lead
vort seen on mosaic radar data moving NE toward central MO.
Convection also taking shape near the Arklatex region, and near
the main mid level wave over the plains, where the surface front
and low are also located. Will continue with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Brief, locally heavy
rain possible tonight. Cannot rule out a strong or severe storm
mainly west of the Mississippi. Does not look like anything
significant in either case. Winds will remain gusty even outside of
convection ahead of the front. The front will move through Monday,
with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms pushing east.
Thunder mainly in the morning. Temperatures will drop through the
day post front, with rain lingering into the evening as the parent
upper level trof approaches then moves through. Will have to
linger precip beyond 06z Monday night based on collaboration and
some of the slower model solutions. Do not think it will last much
beyond 06z though. And, cannot rule out a few snow flakes within
the rain before it all ends. No impact. Quiet, cooler weather
returns Tuesday, with patchy frost possible Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

After a frosty morning, a sfc ridge of high pressure will be in the
process of moving off to the ne on Wed, as the mid level flow turns
swrly. This will allow low level return flow (sfc to 850 mb) to pick
up a srly direction by sunset. Sfc temps are expected to rise into
the middle 60s. The PAH forecast area should remain rain-free
through Thu evening as a mid level shrtwv and sfc frontal system
develops in the central Plains. The med range deterministic models,
particularly the ECMWF, have come into better agreement with
solutions for this system, though some differences in the location
of the sfc low (to our north) and forward speed of the system
remain.

Overnight Thu night, rain showers are expected to move into mainly
the wrn half of the region as the sharp trof continues to approach
from the west. Friday looks rather wet, with at least a quarter inch
of rainfall over the region, and up to a half inch possible in the
srn half of the region on average. Due to limited instability, tstms
may occur, but at this time we will forecast slight chance/isold
coverage. The GFS continues to be aggressive with the sharpness of
the mid level trof and the strength of the sfc low/ pressure
gradient. There is too much uncertainty in the predicted moisture
return/instability to speculate on severe wx potential. Fropa will
probably occur late Fri, bringing an end to any lingering showers
Fri night.

Uncertainty among the deterministic models increased after Fri. The
GFS continues to really wrap up shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow
right behind the system, unlike the GEM/ECMWF and the GEFS/ECENS/
NAEFS ensemble means. This would put the PAH forecast area under
cyclonic, then zonal flow aloft, while the ECMWF insists on a brief
period of ridging aloft Fri night through Sat night. It should be
dry nonetheless. The next possibility of pcpn in mainly the nwrn
third of the region might be on Sun, as the GFS/ECMWF depicted
another mid level shrtwv arriving out of the Pacific Northwest.

Air masses behind these fronts appear to be of Pacific origin,
therefore temps are expected to remain mild through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Shra/tstm will continue at KCGI/KPAH until around 09z, and
KEVV/KOWB until around 11z, with MVFR vsby possible with heavier
showers/storms. Shra will become scattered or even end for the
morning hours, then mainly light rain is expected to redevelop for
Monday afternoon, when MVFR conditions are likely. South winds at
10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts will shift to the north at
KCGI/KPAH between 13z-16z, and KEVV/KOWB 19z-22z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 132355
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
655 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Showers trying to work into west sections of the area with a lead
vort seen on mosaic radar data moving NE toward central MO.
Convection also taking shape near the Arklatex region, and near
the main mid level wave over the plains, where the surface front
and low are also located. Will continue with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Brief, locally heavy
rain possible tonight. Cannot rule out a strong or severe storm
mainly west of the Mississippi. Does not look like anything
significant in either case. Winds will remain gusty even outside of
convection ahead of the front. The front will move through Monday,
with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms pushing east.
Thunder mainly in the morning. Temperatures will drop through the
day post front, with rain lingering into the evening as the parent
upper level trof approaches then moves through. Will have to
linger precip beyond 06z Monday night based on collaboration and
some of the slower model solutions. Do not think it will last much
beyond 06z though. And, cannot rule out a few snow flakes within
the rain before it all ends. No impact. Quiet, cooler weather
returns Tuesday, with patchy frost possible Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

After a frosty morning, a sfc ridge of high pressure will be in the
process of moving off to the ne on Wed, as the mid level flow turns
swrly. This will allow low level return flow (sfc to 850 mb) to pick
up a srly direction by sunset. Sfc temps are expected to rise into
the middle 60s. The PAH forecast area should remain rain-free
through Thu evening as a mid level shrtwv and sfc frontal system
develops in the central Plains. The med range deterministic models,
particularly the ECMWF, have come into better agreement with
solutions for this system, though some differences in the location
of the sfc low (to our north) and forward speed of the system
remain.

Overnight Thu night, rain showers are expected to move into mainly
the wrn half of the region as the sharp trof continues to approach
from the west. Friday looks rather wet, with at least a quarter inch
of rainfall over the region, and up to a half inch possible in the
srn half of the region on average. Due to limited instability, tstms
may occur, but at this time we will forecast slight chance/isold
coverage. The GFS continues to be aggressive with the sharpness of
the mid level trof and the strength of the sfc low/ pressure
gradient. There is too much uncertainty in the predicted moisture
return/instability to speculate on severe wx potential. Fropa will
probably occur late Fri, bringing an end to any lingering showers
Fri night.

Uncertainty among the deterministic models increased after Fri. The
GFS continues to really wrap up shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow
right behind the system, unlike the GEM/ECMWF and the GEFS/ECENS/
NAEFS ensemble means. This would put the PAH forecast area under
cyclonic, then zonal flow aloft, while the ECMWF insists on a brief
period of ridging aloft Fri night through Sat night. It should be
dry nonetheless. The next possibility of pcpn in mainly the nwrn
third of the region might be on Sun, as the GFS/ECMWF depicted
another mid level shrtwv arriving out of the Pacific Northwest.

Air masses behind these fronts appear to be of Pacific origin,
therefore temps are expected to remain mild through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VFR conditions expected until large area of shra/tstms spread across
TAF sites this evening. Expect shra/tstms with MVFR conditions at
KCGI/KPAH between 01z-04z, and KEVV/KOWB between 03z-07z. A second
round of stronger tstms/shra will affect KCGI/KPAH after 05z and
KEVV/KOWB after 08z. Lingering shra/ra will linger behind the
second round of storms along with with MVFR conditions. South
winds at 10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts will shift to the north
at KCGI/KPAH between 13z-16z, and KEVV/KOWB 19z-22z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 131959
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
259 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Showers trying to work into west sections of the area with a lead
vort seen on mosaic radar data moving NE toward central MO.
Convection also taking shape near the Arklatex region, and near
the main mid level wave over the plains, where the surface front
and low are also located. Will continue with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Brief, locally heavy
rain possible tonight. Cannot rule out a strong or severe storm
mainly west of the Mississippi. Does not look like anything
significant in either case. Winds will remain gusty even outside of
convection ahead of the front. The front will move through Monday,
with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms pushing east.
Thunder mainly in the morning. Temperatures will drop through the
day post front, with rain lingering into the evening as the parent
upper level trof approaches then moves through. Will have to
linger precip beyond 06z Monday night based on collaboration and
some of the slower model solutions. Do not think it will last much
beyond 06z though. And, cannot rule out a few snow flakes within
the rain before it all ends. No impact. Quiet, cooler weather
returns Tuesday, with patchy frost possible Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

After a frosty morning, a sfc ridge of high pressure will be in the
process of moving off to the ne on Wed, as the mid level flow turns
swrly. This will allow low level return flow (sfc to 850 mb) to pick
up a srly direction by sunset. Sfc temps are expected to rise into
the middle 60s. The PAH forecast area should remain rain-free
through Thu evening as a mid level shrtwv and sfc frontal system
develops in the central Plains. The med range deterministic models,
particularly the ECMWF, have come into better agreement with
solutions for this system, though some differences in the location
of the sfc low (to our north) and forward speed of the system
remain.

Overnight Thu night, rain showers are expected to move into mainly
the wrn half of the region as the sharp trof continues to approach
from the west. Friday looks rather wet, with at least a quarter inch
of rainfall over the region, and up to a half inch possible in the
srn half of the region on average. Due to limited instability, tstms
may occur, but at this time we will forecast slight chance/isold
coverage. The GFS continues to be aggressive with the sharpness of
the mid level trof and the strength of the sfc low/ pressure
gradient. There is too much uncertainty in the predicted moisture
return/instability to speculate on severe wx potential. Fropa will
probably occur late Fri, bringing an end to any lingering showers
Fri night.

Uncertainty among the deterministic models increased after Fri. The
GFS continues to really wrap up shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow
right behind the system, unlike the GEM/ECMWF and the GEFS/ECENS/
NAEFS ensemble means. This would put the PAH forecast area under
cyclonic, then zonal flow aloft, while the ECMWF insists on a brief
period of ridging aloft Fri night through Sat night. It should be
dry nonetheless. The next possibility of pcpn in mainly the nwrn
third of the region might be on Sun, as the GFS/ECMWF depicted
another mid level shrtwv arriving out of the Pacific Northwest.

Air masses behind these fronts appear to be of Pacific origin,
therefore temps are expected to remain mild through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Sct-bkn cu with considerable high clouds across the area this
afternoon with south winds gusting just over 30 kts at times.
Expect an increase in convective activity this afternoon over SE
MO as upper level energy ejects NE from the srn Plains. The
chances will increase sharply into the evening over the remainder
of the region. This is reflected in the TAFs this evening. Will
linger prob30 tsra after 05/06z or so. Wind shift should come
around daybreak Monday with cigs lowering through MVFR toward IFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










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