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000
FXUS63 KPAH 292343 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at all
sites between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through the
period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west to
east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Light and variable winds early
should go calm around sunset, then pick up out fo the west
southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH






000
FXUS63 KPAH 292343 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at all
sites between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through the
period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west to
east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Light and variable winds early
should go calm around sunset, then pick up out fo the west
southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291817
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Lower trop Temp/Td spread supports diurnally driven Cu field in
the 5-6K FT AGL range. Sky should clear of Cu with setting
sun/loss of fuel, though mid or high cloud blow off from upstream
makes an appearance by the planning period. Said appearance should
preclude MOS hints at vsby restrictions due to fog, although we
cannot rule it out.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291817
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Lower trop Temp/Td spread supports diurnally driven Cu field in
the 5-6K FT AGL range. Sky should clear of Cu with setting
sun/loss of fuel, though mid or high cloud blow off from upstream
makes an appearance by the planning period. Said appearance should
preclude MOS hints at vsby restrictions due to fog, although we
cannot rule it out.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 291816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
116 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The impressive, almost semi-permanent cold core low centered along
the common Ontario/Quebec Province border will remain the dominant
feature through the extended portion of this forecast package. With
only minor changes in thermal thicknesses expected, temperature will
remain noticeably below normal, with highs in the lower and middle
80s.

At the surface and aloft, the WFO PAH forecast area will be
entrenched in a cooler and drier northwest flow.

There appears to be a dominant channeled vorticity axis that will
run through the Dakotas, southeast through the Tennessee Valley
Friday through Saturday. This will enhance the baroclinic zone along
the gradient of the eastern Canadian Provinces closed low,
supporting decent isentropic lift into the area. Isolated to briefly
scattered upright convection will be a possibility over the WFO PAH
forecast area during this time. The "rain" faucet should close off
once the energy in the trough is congealed into a mean trough axis,
east of the WFO PAH forecast axis, leaving only below normal
temperatures.

The suite of medium range guidance seems to have a similar evolution
of systems in the extended, so utilized a blend of guidance for
sensible weather elements. As expected, the CIPS Analog Threat
guidance for the aforementioned period suggests a minimum for severe
weather concerns. The main focus will be on temperatures during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Lower trop Temp/Td spread supports diurnally driven Cu field in
the 5-6K FT AGL range. Sky should clear of Cu with setting
sun/loss of fuel, though mid or high cloud blow off from upstream
makes an appearance by the planning period. Said appearance should
preclude MOS hints at vsby restrictions due to fog, although we
cannot rule it out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 291816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
116 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The impressive, almost semi-permanent cold core low centered along
the common Ontario/Quebec Province border will remain the dominant
feature through the extended portion of this forecast package. With
only minor changes in thermal thicknesses expected, temperature will
remain noticeably below normal, with highs in the lower and middle
80s.

At the surface and aloft, the WFO PAH forecast area will be
entrenched in a cooler and drier northwest flow.

There appears to be a dominant channeled vorticity axis that will
run through the Dakotas, southeast through the Tennessee Valley
Friday through Saturday. This will enhance the baroclinic zone along
the gradient of the eastern Canadian Provinces closed low,
supporting decent isentropic lift into the area. Isolated to briefly
scattered upright convection will be a possibility over the WFO PAH
forecast area during this time. The "rain" faucet should close off
once the energy in the trough is congealed into a mean trough axis,
east of the WFO PAH forecast axis, leaving only below normal
temperatures.

The suite of medium range guidance seems to have a similar evolution
of systems in the extended, so utilized a blend of guidance for
sensible weather elements. As expected, the CIPS Analog Threat
guidance for the aforementioned period suggests a minimum for severe
weather concerns. The main focus will be on temperatures during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Lower trop Temp/Td spread supports diurnally driven Cu field in
the 5-6K FT AGL range. Sky should clear of Cu with setting
sun/loss of fuel, though mid or high cloud blow off from upstream
makes an appearance by the planning period. Said appearance should
preclude MOS hints at vsby restrictions due to fog, although we
cannot rule it out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 291134
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
634 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern has settled back into the region as yet
another another deep amplitude/closed off upper low has settled
into the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today once
again may lie with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of
the MS River. Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest
a possible broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a
result, will beef up cloud cover a bit more and keep high temps
in the upper 70s to near 80 n/e areas. May challenge record lows
again tonight as clouds dissipate and winds decouple, tho records
are a bit cooler than the ones this morning. Blocking pattern will
keep things dry and relatively cool right through the remainder
of the short term. Will stay fairly close to MAV/MET MOS temps
through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The impressive, almost semi-permanent cold core low centered along
the common Ontario/Quebec Province border will remain the dominant
feature through the extended portion of this forecast package. With
only minor changes in thermal thicknesses expected, temperature will
remain noticeably below normal, with highs in the lower and middle
80s.

At the surface and aloft, the WFO PAH forecast area will be
entrenched in a cooler and drier northwest flow.

There appears to be a dominant channeled vorticity axis that will
run through the Dakotas, southeast through the Tennessee Valley
Friday through Saturday. This will enhance the baroclinic zone along
the gradient of the eastern Canadian Provinces closed low,
supporting decent isentropic lift into the area. Isolated to briefly
scattered upright convection will be a possibility over the WFO PAH
forecast area during this time. The "rain" faucet should close off
once the energy in the trough is congealed into a mean trough axis,
east of the WFO PAH forecast axis, leaving only below normal
temperatures.

The suite of medium range guidance seems to have a similar evolution
of systems in the extended, so utilized a blend of guidance for
sensible weather elements. As expected, the CIPS Analog Threat
guidance for the aforementioned period suggests a minimum for severe
weather concerns. The main focus will be on temperatures during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

High pressure will bring VFR conditions through the period. Could
be 4000-5000 ft bkn cigs will be possible during the late morning
and afternoon...esp at KEVV/KOWB sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291134
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
634 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern has settled back into the region as yet
another another deep amplitude/closed off upper low has settled
into the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today once
again may lie with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of
the MS River. Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest
a possible broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a
result, will beef up cloud cover a bit more and keep high temps
in the upper 70s to near 80 n/e areas. May challenge record lows
again tonight as clouds dissipate and winds decouple, tho records
are a bit cooler than the ones this morning. Blocking pattern will
keep things dry and relatively cool right through the remainder
of the short term. Will stay fairly close to MAV/MET MOS temps
through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The impressive, almost semi-permanent cold core low centered along
the common Ontario/Quebec Province border will remain the dominant
feature through the extended portion of this forecast package. With
only minor changes in thermal thicknesses expected, temperature will
remain noticeably below normal, with highs in the lower and middle
80s.

At the surface and aloft, the WFO PAH forecast area will be
entrenched in a cooler and drier northwest flow.

There appears to be a dominant channeled vorticity axis that will
run through the Dakotas, southeast through the Tennessee Valley
Friday through Saturday. This will enhance the baroclinic zone along
the gradient of the eastern Canadian Provinces closed low,
supporting decent isentropic lift into the area. Isolated to briefly
scattered upright convection will be a possibility over the WFO PAH
forecast area during this time. The "rain" faucet should close off
once the energy in the trough is congealed into a mean trough axis,
east of the WFO PAH forecast axis, leaving only below normal
temperatures.

The suite of medium range guidance seems to have a similar evolution
of systems in the extended, so utilized a blend of guidance for
sensible weather elements. As expected, the CIPS Analog Threat
guidance for the aforementioned period suggests a minimum for severe
weather concerns. The main focus will be on temperatures during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

High pressure will bring VFR conditions through the period. Could
be 4000-5000 ft bkn cigs will be possible during the late morning
and afternoon...esp at KEVV/KOWB sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 290842
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern has settled back into the region as yet
another another deep amplitude/closed off upper low has settled
into the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today once
again may lie with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of
the MS River. Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest
a possible broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a
result, will beef up cloud cover a bit more and keep high temps
in the upper 70s to near 80 n/e areas. May challenge record lows
again tonight as clouds dissipate and winds decouple, tho records
are a bit cooler than the ones this morning. Blocking pattern will
keep things dry and relatively cool right through the remainder
of the short term. Will stay fairly close to MAV/MET MOS temps
through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The impressive, almost semi-permanent cold core low centered along
the common Ontario/Quebec Province border will remain the dominant
feature through the extended portion of this forecast package. With
only minor changes in thermal thicknesses expected, temperature will
remain noticeably below normal, with highs in the lower and middle
80s.

At the surface and aloft, the WFO PAH forecast area will be
entrenched in a cooler and drier northwest flow.

There appears to be a dominant channeled vorticity axis that will
run through the Dakotas, southeast through the Tennessee Valley
Friday through Saturday. This will enhance the baroclinic zone along
the gradient of the eastern Canadian Provinces closed low,
supporting decent isentropic lift into the area. Isolated to briefly
scattered upright convection will be a possibility over the WFO PAH
forecast area during this time. The "rain" faucet should close off
once the energy in the trough is congealed into a mean trough axis,
east of the WFO PAH forecast axis, leaving only below normal
temperatures.

The suite of medium range guidance seems to have a similar evolution
of systems in the extended, so utilized a blend of guidance for
sensible weather elements. As expected, the CIPS Analog Threat
guidance for the aforementioned period suggests a minimum for severe
weather concerns. The main focus will be on temperatures during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Surface high pressure overspreading the area will keep the TAF
sites dry with relatively light winds (AOB 10 knots) through the
period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at KCGI between
10-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 290842
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern has settled back into the region as yet
another another deep amplitude/closed off upper low has settled
into the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today once
again may lie with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of
the MS River. Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest
a possible broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a
result, will beef up cloud cover a bit more and keep high temps
in the upper 70s to near 80 n/e areas. May challenge record lows
again tonight as clouds dissipate and winds decouple, tho records
are a bit cooler than the ones this morning. Blocking pattern will
keep things dry and relatively cool right through the remainder
of the short term. Will stay fairly close to MAV/MET MOS temps
through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The impressive, almost semi-permanent cold core low centered along
the common Ontario/Quebec Province border will remain the dominant
feature through the extended portion of this forecast package. With
only minor changes in thermal thicknesses expected, temperature will
remain noticeably below normal, with highs in the lower and middle
80s.

At the surface and aloft, the WFO PAH forecast area will be
entrenched in a cooler and drier northwest flow.

There appears to be a dominant channeled vorticity axis that will
run through the Dakotas, southeast through the Tennessee Valley
Friday through Saturday. This will enhance the baroclinic zone along
the gradient of the eastern Canadian Provinces closed low,
supporting decent isentropic lift into the area. Isolated to briefly
scattered upright convection will be a possibility over the WFO PAH
forecast area during this time. The "rain" faucet should close off
once the energy in the trough is congealed into a mean trough axis,
east of the WFO PAH forecast axis, leaving only below normal
temperatures.

The suite of medium range guidance seems to have a similar evolution
of systems in the extended, so utilized a blend of guidance for
sensible weather elements. As expected, the CIPS Analog Threat
guidance for the aforementioned period suggests a minimum for severe
weather concerns. The main focus will be on temperatures during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Surface high pressure overspreading the area will keep the TAF
sites dry with relatively light winds (AOB 10 knots) through the
period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at KCGI between
10-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 290449 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Medium confidence in the extended possibly even less confidence in
precip chance and timing.

Models are trying to keep a light northerly flow that does drift to
the east in time. However the flow is so light with surface high
pressure dominating the extended. The models continue to agree on an
upper level trough persisting over the eastern half of the country.
The axis of this upper level feature should pivot through the fa
Thursday. This combined with aftn max heating could trigger a storm
or two but lack of moisture is a major concern. Dewpoints around or
in the 60s are usually adequate for storms but very dry aloft.
Another mitigating factor is with flow aloft fairly unidirectional
with surface i.e. mainly north or east...would not expect much in
the way of moisture advection. Otherwise as head through the weekend
and into next week the trough will slowly shift eastward toward the
east coast...decreasing rain chances.

The models continue to agree on a unseasonably cool week with some
hints of warm up next week as temperature slowly warm through
the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Surface high pressure overspreading the area will keep the TAF
sites dry with relatively light winds (AOB 10 knots) through the
period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at KCGI between
10-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH








000
FXUS63 KPAH 282331 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Medium confidence in the extended possibly even less confidence in
precip chance and timing.

Models are trying to keep a light northerly flow that does drift to
the east in time. However the flow is so light with surface high
pressure dominating the extended. The models continue to agree on an
upper level trough persisting over the eastern half of the country.
The axis of this upper level feature should pivot through the fa
Thursday. This combined with aftn max heating could trigger a storm
or two but lack of moisture is a major concern. Dewpoints around or
in the 60s are usually adequate for storms but very dry aloft.
Another mitigating factor is with flow aloft fairly unidirectional
with surface i.e. mainly north or east...would not expect much in
the way of moisture advection. Otherwise as head through the weekend
and into next week the trough will slowly shift eastward toward the
east coast...decreasing rain chances.

The models continue to agree on a unseasonably cool week with some
hints of warm up next week as temperature slowly warm through
the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 632 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Surface high pressure overspreading the area will keep the TAF
sites dry with relatively light winds (AOB 10 knots) through the
period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at KCGI between
09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 282331 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Medium confidence in the extended possibly even less confidence in
precip chance and timing.

Models are trying to keep a light northerly flow that does drift to
the east in time. However the flow is so light with surface high
pressure dominating the extended. The models continue to agree on an
upper level trough persisting over the eastern half of the country.
The axis of this upper level feature should pivot through the fa
Thursday. This combined with aftn max heating could trigger a storm
or two but lack of moisture is a major concern. Dewpoints around or
in the 60s are usually adequate for storms but very dry aloft.
Another mitigating factor is with flow aloft fairly unidirectional
with surface i.e. mainly north or east...would not expect much in
the way of moisture advection. Otherwise as head through the weekend
and into next week the trough will slowly shift eastward toward the
east coast...decreasing rain chances.

The models continue to agree on a unseasonably cool week with some
hints of warm up next week as temperature slowly warm through
the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 632 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Surface high pressure overspreading the area will keep the TAF
sites dry with relatively light winds (AOB 10 knots) through the
period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at KCGI between
09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH








000
FXUS63 KPAH 281840
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
139 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Medium confidence in the extended possibly even less confidence in
precip chance and timing.

Models are trying to keep a light northerly flow that does drift to
the east in time. However the flow is so light with surface high
pressure dominating the extended. The models continue to agree on an
upper level trough persisting over the eastern half of the country.
The axis of this upper level feature should pivot through the fa
Thursday. This combined with aftn max heating could trigger a storm
or two but lack of moisture is a major concern. Dewpoints around or
in the 60s are usually adequate for storms but very dry aloft.
Another mitigating factor is with flow aloft fairly unidirectional
with surface i.e. mainly north or east...would not expect much in
the way of moisture advection. Otherwise as head through the weekend
and into next week the trough will slowly shift eastward toward the
east coast...decreasing rain chances.

The models continue to agree on a unseasonably cool week with some
hints of warm up next week as temperature slowly warm through
the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Diurnal cu fields producing mid pm cigs in the low VFR range
mainly, should disperse with loss of diurnal fuel, with clearing
sky noted tonight. Tmrw should see same by mid morning, with
perhaps some mid cloud cigs advecting in as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 281840
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
139 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Medium confidence in the extended possibly even less confidence in
precip chance and timing.

Models are trying to keep a light northerly flow that does drift to
the east in time. However the flow is so light with surface high
pressure dominating the extended. The models continue to agree on an
upper level trough persisting over the eastern half of the country.
The axis of this upper level feature should pivot through the fa
Thursday. This combined with aftn max heating could trigger a storm
or two but lack of moisture is a major concern. Dewpoints around or
in the 60s are usually adequate for storms but very dry aloft.
Another mitigating factor is with flow aloft fairly unidirectional
with surface i.e. mainly north or east...would not expect much in
the way of moisture advection. Otherwise as head through the weekend
and into next week the trough will slowly shift eastward toward the
east coast...decreasing rain chances.

The models continue to agree on a unseasonably cool week with some
hints of warm up next week as temperature slowly warm through
the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Diurnal cu fields producing mid pm cigs in the low VFR range
mainly, should disperse with loss of diurnal fuel, with clearing
sky noted tonight. Tmrw should see same by mid morning, with
perhaps some mid cloud cigs advecting in as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS63 KPAH 281823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
123 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The weather pattern during the latter half of the week and into the
weekend will continue to be a trough in the eastern half of the
country. Therefore, the main concerns will be trying to deal with
any potential waves that are strong enough and have enough moisture
associated with them to warrant any mentionable POPS. On Thursday,
models have been advertising a potent system that will pass through
but the deepest moisture will pass us by to the west and south.
Models have been trying to hint at a slight possibility of some
convection over parts of our area as this system approaches and then
exits, especially over SEMO. Neither the GFS or ECMWF are really too
excited at this point, but the GFS ensembles seem to have a strong
enough signal in parts of southern MO and southwest KY to warrant
some POPS.

While there may be other subtle disturbances rotating through the
northwest flow aloft Thursday night through Friday, there is not a
strong enough signal to warrant much more than a slight chance POP.
However, later on Friday night and into Saturday and Sunday, a more
potent trough develops and might provide a better shot at rain.
Differences in timing, QPF and strength of this next system are
great enough to not get too carried away with POPS at this point
however. A broad brushed 20-30 percent will have to do for now, as
even the GFS ensembles are not showing much either.

The other good thing we are seeing in the extended, is no real hot
weather. With this trough in place during the period, temperatures
should remain mainly in the low/mid 80s for highs and low 60s at
night. In addition, the sfc pattern will one in which winds should
stay mainly northerly or northeasterly for most of the extended.
Therefore, humidity values should remain fairly comfortable,
especially by August standards.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Diurnal cu fields producing mid pm cigs in the low VFR range
mainly, should disperse with loss of diurnal fuel, with clearing
sky noted tonight. Tmrw should see same by mid morning, with
perhaps some mid cloud cigs advecting in as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 281823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
123 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The weather pattern during the latter half of the week and into the
weekend will continue to be a trough in the eastern half of the
country. Therefore, the main concerns will be trying to deal with
any potential waves that are strong enough and have enough moisture
associated with them to warrant any mentionable POPS. On Thursday,
models have been advertising a potent system that will pass through
but the deepest moisture will pass us by to the west and south.
Models have been trying to hint at a slight possibility of some
convection over parts of our area as this system approaches and then
exits, especially over SEMO. Neither the GFS or ECMWF are really too
excited at this point, but the GFS ensembles seem to have a strong
enough signal in parts of southern MO and southwest KY to warrant
some POPS.

While there may be other subtle disturbances rotating through the
northwest flow aloft Thursday night through Friday, there is not a
strong enough signal to warrant much more than a slight chance POP.
However, later on Friday night and into Saturday and Sunday, a more
potent trough develops and might provide a better shot at rain.
Differences in timing, QPF and strength of this next system are
great enough to not get too carried away with POPS at this point
however. A broad brushed 20-30 percent will have to do for now, as
even the GFS ensembles are not showing much either.

The other good thing we are seeing in the extended, is no real hot
weather. With this trough in place during the period, temperatures
should remain mainly in the low/mid 80s for highs and low 60s at
night. In addition, the sfc pattern will one in which winds should
stay mainly northerly or northeasterly for most of the extended.
Therefore, humidity values should remain fairly comfortable,
especially by August standards.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Diurnal cu fields producing mid pm cigs in the low VFR range
mainly, should disperse with loss of diurnal fuel, with clearing
sky noted tonight. Tmrw should see same by mid morning, with
perhaps some mid cloud cigs advecting in as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 281056
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern settling back in for the first part of
the week as another deep amplitude/closed off upper low settles sw
in the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today may lie
with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of the MS River.
Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest at least a
broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a result,
will beef up cloud cover and keep high temps in the 70s n/e
areas. May challenge record lows tonight as clouds dissipate and
winds decouple. Blocking pattern will keep things dry and
relatively cool right into mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The weather pattern during the latter half of the week and into the
weekend will continue to be a trough in the eastern half of the
country. Therefore, the main concerns will be trying to deal with
any potential waves that are strong enough and have enough moisture
associated with them to warrant any mentionable POPS. On Thursday,
models have been advertising a potent system that will pass through
but the deepest moisture will pass us by to the west and south.
Models have been trying to hint at a slight possibility of some
convection over parts of our area as this system approaches and then
exits, especially over SEMO. Neither the GFS or ECMWF are really too
excited at this point, but the GFS ensembles seem to have a strong
enough signal in parts of southern MO and southwest KY to warrant
some POPS.

While there may be other subtle disturbances rotating through the
northwest flow aloft Thursday night through Friday, there is not a
strong enough signal to warrant much more than a slight chance POP.
However, later on Friday night and into Saturday and Sunday, a more
potent trough develops and might provide a better shot at rain.
Differences in timing, QPF and strength of this next system are
great enough to not get too carried away with POPS at this point
however. A broad brushed 20-30 percent will have to do for now, as
even the GFS ensembles are not showing much either.

The other good thing we are seeing in the extended, is no real hot
weather. With this trough in place during the period, temperatures
should remain mainly in the low/mid 80s for highs and low 60s at
night. In addition, the sfc pattern will one in which winds should
stay mainly northerly or northeasterly for most of the extended.
Therefore, humidity values should remain fairly comfortable,
especially by August standards.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

High pressure moving into the northern Plains will bring gusty nw
winds up close to 20 kts today. VFR cigs will also be likely
during the day, especially at the KEVV/KOWB sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281056
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern settling back in for the first part of
the week as another deep amplitude/closed off upper low settles sw
in the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today may lie
with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of the MS River.
Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest at least a
broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a result,
will beef up cloud cover and keep high temps in the 70s n/e
areas. May challenge record lows tonight as clouds dissipate and
winds decouple. Blocking pattern will keep things dry and
relatively cool right into mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The weather pattern during the latter half of the week and into the
weekend will continue to be a trough in the eastern half of the
country. Therefore, the main concerns will be trying to deal with
any potential waves that are strong enough and have enough moisture
associated with them to warrant any mentionable POPS. On Thursday,
models have been advertising a potent system that will pass through
but the deepest moisture will pass us by to the west and south.
Models have been trying to hint at a slight possibility of some
convection over parts of our area as this system approaches and then
exits, especially over SEMO. Neither the GFS or ECMWF are really too
excited at this point, but the GFS ensembles seem to have a strong
enough signal in parts of southern MO and southwest KY to warrant
some POPS.

While there may be other subtle disturbances rotating through the
northwest flow aloft Thursday night through Friday, there is not a
strong enough signal to warrant much more than a slight chance POP.
However, later on Friday night and into Saturday and Sunday, a more
potent trough develops and might provide a better shot at rain.
Differences in timing, QPF and strength of this next system are
great enough to not get too carried away with POPS at this point
however. A broad brushed 20-30 percent will have to do for now, as
even the GFS ensembles are not showing much either.

The other good thing we are seeing in the extended, is no real hot
weather. With this trough in place during the period, temperatures
should remain mainly in the low/mid 80s for highs and low 60s at
night. In addition, the sfc pattern will one in which winds should
stay mainly northerly or northeasterly for most of the extended.
Therefore, humidity values should remain fairly comfortable,
especially by August standards.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

High pressure moving into the northern Plains will bring gusty nw
winds up close to 20 kts today. VFR cigs will also be likely
during the day, especially at the KEVV/KOWB sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 280805
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern settling back in for the first part of
the week as another deep amplitude/closed off upper low settles sw
in the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today may lie
with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of the MS River.
Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest at least a
broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a result,
will beef up cloud cover and keep high temps in the 70s n/e
areas. May challenge record lows tonight as clouds dissipate and
winds decouple. Blocking pattern will keep things dry and
relatively cool right into mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The weather pattern during the latter half of the week and into the
weekend will continue to be a trough in the eastern half of the
country. Therefore, the main concerns will be trying to deal with
any potential waves that are strong enough and have enough moisture
associated with them to warrant any mentionable POPS. On Thursday,
models have been advertising a potent system that will pass through
but the deepest moisture will pass us by to the west and south.
Models have been trying to hint at a slight possibility of some
convection over parts of our area as this system approaches and then
exits, especially over SEMO. Neither the GFS or ECMWF are really too
excited at this point, but the GFS ensembles seem to have a strong
enough signal in parts of southern MO and southwest KY to warrant
some POPS.

While there may be other subtle disturbances rotating through the
northwest flow aloft Thursday night through Friday, there is not a
strong enough signal to warrant much more than a slight chance POP.
However, later on Friday night and into Saturday and Sunday, a more
potent trough develops and might provide a better shot at rain.
Differences in timing, QPF and strength of this next system are
great enough to not get too carried away with POPS at this point
however. A broad brushed 20-30 percent will have to do for now, as
even the GFS ensembles are not showing much either.

The other good thing we are seeing in the extended, is no real hot
weather. With this trough in place during the period, temperatures
should remain mainly in the low/mid 80s for highs and low 60s at
night. In addition, the sfc pattern will one in which winds should
stay mainly northerly or northeasterly for most of the extended.
Therefore, humidity values should remain fairly comfortable,
especially by August standards.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

In the wake of a frontal passage earlier today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. Northwest to north winds AOB 10
knots will continue through the period at KCGI/KPAH, but at
KEVV/KOWB expect northwest winds AOB 10 knots overnight, gusty
northwest winds between 15-01Z, then back to AOB 10 knots after 01Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280436 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.

Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.

The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.

The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.

As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

In the wake of a frontal passage earlier today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. Northwest to north winds AOB 10
knots will continue through the period at KCGI/KPAH, but at
KEVV/KOWB expect northwest winds AOB 10 knots overnight, gusty
northwest winds between 15-01Z, then back to AOB 10 knots after 01Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH






000
FXUS63 KPAH 280436 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.

Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.

The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.

The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.

As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

In the wake of a frontal passage earlier today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. Northwest to north winds AOB 10
knots will continue through the period at KCGI/KPAH, but at
KEVV/KOWB expect northwest winds AOB 10 knots overnight, gusty
northwest winds between 15-01Z, then back to AOB 10 knots after 01Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 272333 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.

Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.

The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.

The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.

As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

In the wake of a frontal passage today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. At KCGI/KPAH northwest winds AOB 10 knots
will continue through the period. At KEVV/KOWB northwest winds at
10-12 knots gusting up to 18 knots will subside to AOB 10 knots
around sunset, then back to gusty northwest winds after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 272333 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.

Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.

The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.

The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.

As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

In the wake of a frontal passage today, high pressure will
overspread the region snuffing out the potential for precipitation
at the TAF sites. Skies overnight should be mostly clear, but
there could be a VFR cig in the 035-040 range between 14-22Z
Monday, especially at KEVV/KOWB. At KCGI/KPAH northwest winds AOB 10 knots
will continue through the period. At KEVV/KOWB northwest winds at
10-12 knots gusting up to 18 knots will subside to AOB 10 knots
around sunset, then back to gusty northwest winds after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271957
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.

Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.

The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.

The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.

As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

It appears at this time that any convection today is likely to be
south and east of the terminals. The thick cu deck should settle
in at VFR levels, and it should generally thin out through the
afternoon. The cold frontal wind shift will take winds to the west
northwest at KCGI and KEVV right at the beginning of the period,
and KPAH and KOWB through the afternoon. As winds become northwest
mixing may take gusts up above 20kts at times. The main issue for
tomorrow will be an expansive stratocu deck as the cooler air
aloft advects over the region. Cannot rule out some MVFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB in the late morning.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271957
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.

Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.

The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.

The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.

As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

It appears at this time that any convection today is likely to be
south and east of the terminals. The thick cu deck should settle
in at VFR levels, and it should generally thin out through the
afternoon. The cold frontal wind shift will take winds to the west
northwest at KCGI and KEVV right at the beginning of the period,
and KPAH and KOWB through the afternoon. As winds become northwest
mixing may take gusts up above 20kts at times. The main issue for
tomorrow will be an expansive stratocu deck as the cooler air
aloft advects over the region. Cannot rule out some MVFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB in the late morning.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271723
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Will the cap hold or won`t it? That is the question of the day.
We will continue to monitor for development through the afternoon,
mainly across west Kentucky.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VAD wind profiles across the region this morning indicate that
25-30kts of westerly momentum is available to mix down today.
Portions of west Kentucky should reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria
this morning, and most locations along and east of the Mississippi
River should easily reach criteria behind the cold front this
afternoon. The strongest winds should be later this afternoon
behind the front. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for all but
the 6 westernmost counties of southeast Missouri until 7 PM.

The cu field has a very stable look to it over southern Illinois
and southwest Indiana, so it is safe to say the cap is still
overhead. The convection allowing models are having a hard time
developing much convection over our region through the day. Figure
the best chances will be right along the eastern border areas, and
possibly along the TN border late this afternoon, when the front
reaches that region. Kept PoPs in the 20-30% range and used areal
coverage wording. If storms can develop, supercells will be
possible with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. The
storms will be moving quickly to the east southeast, so would not
expect much of a heavy rain threat. For spotters out there, keep
in mind that the storms will be oriented about 90 degrees from
what we typically see.

Temperatures are running hot over the southern half of the area
where there is plenty of sunshine as of 15Z. Sped up the warming
trend this morning, but figure increasing clouds and eventually
some cool advection will cut off warming early this afternoon.
High temperatures were not impacted signficantly. The dewpoint
forecast was on track and looked reasonable through the day, so
with a minor increase in temperature, heat indices are really
pushing Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Confidence in the
temperature and dewpoint trends is too low to issue at this time,
but will monitor for possible issuance around midday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Biggest forecast challenge comes with a conditional probability of
some severe thunderstorms today...generally along and south of the
OH River. Potent cold front will be surging south into very moist
and unstable regime today. Sfc dew points are already pooling
into the mid 70s across this region...and temperatures by noon
will likely already have surged into the 90s. Cold front should
have progressed south to somewhere near the OH River by early PM.
Two factors that could limit/suppress convective development
include limited deep moisture and thermal capping that may be
present. If storms mange to form though...they will have more than
enough CAPE and bulk shear to work with to reach severe levels.

Cold front should be south of the region by early evening, ending
any storm threat and allowing much cooler and less humid air to
flow into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term
will be dominated by unseasonably cool and dry conditions, which
seem to be returning every week or so. Quite unusual for late July.
In fact, should be within a few degrees of record lows by Tue
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

By Wednesday, weak sfc high pressure will be settled over the
region, as a large upper trough continues to impact the eastern half
of the nation with an upper level low pinwheeling over eastern
Canada. Even though models hint at minor disturbances in this
northwest flow pattern, moisture will be confined to just the lower
levels on Wednesday and early Thursday, so we should remain dry for
the most part. By Thursday night, a strong wave is progged to move
through the area which might be enough to produce some convection,
especially given the fact that moisture should be increasing aloft
by that time too. Will keep POPS low at this point.

The bigger synoptic change will come at the end of the week and into
the weekend, when an even stronger piece of energy digs down across
the western Great Lakes and carves a deeper trough over our region
and eventually a cut off upper low develops over/near the region
during the weekend sometime, though models are still not agreeing on
timing and location attm. This should bring an increasing chance for
precipitation. This general idea is also supported by the 12z/00Z
GFS precipitation ensembles, which hint at the possibility of
convection with this upper system. No real warm surges expected this
week as H85 temperatures really remain unchanged in the extended as
sfc winds/low level winds remain out of the north/northeast. These
N/NE winds will also keep dewpoints at bay, which means humidity
levels should remain fairly comfortable, especially for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

It appears at this time that any convection today is likely to be
south and east of the terminals. The thick cu deck should settle
in at VFR levels, and it should generally thin out through the
afternoon. The cold frontal wind shift will take winds to the west
northwest at KCGI and KEVV right at the beginning of the period,
and KPAH and KOWB through the afternoon. As winds become northwest
mixing may take gusts up above 20kts at times. The main issue for
tomorrow will be an expansive stratocu deck as the cooler air
aloft advects over the region. Cannot rule out some MVFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB in the late morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-087-
     111-112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271723
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Will the cap hold or won`t it? That is the question of the day.
We will continue to monitor for development through the afternoon,
mainly across west Kentucky.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VAD wind profiles across the region this morning indicate that
25-30kts of westerly momentum is available to mix down today.
Portions of west Kentucky should reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria
this morning, and most locations along and east of the Mississippi
River should easily reach criteria behind the cold front this
afternoon. The strongest winds should be later this afternoon
behind the front. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for all but
the 6 westernmost counties of southeast Missouri until 7 PM.

The cu field has a very stable look to it over southern Illinois
and southwest Indiana, so it is safe to say the cap is still
overhead. The convection allowing models are having a hard time
developing much convection over our region through the day. Figure
the best chances will be right along the eastern border areas, and
possibly along the TN border late this afternoon, when the front
reaches that region. Kept PoPs in the 20-30% range and used areal
coverage wording. If storms can develop, supercells will be
possible with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. The
storms will be moving quickly to the east southeast, so would not
expect much of a heavy rain threat. For spotters out there, keep
in mind that the storms will be oriented about 90 degrees from
what we typically see.

Temperatures are running hot over the southern half of the area
where there is plenty of sunshine as of 15Z. Sped up the warming
trend this morning, but figure increasing clouds and eventually
some cool advection will cut off warming early this afternoon.
High temperatures were not impacted signficantly. The dewpoint
forecast was on track and looked reasonable through the day, so
with a minor increase in temperature, heat indices are really
pushing Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Confidence in the
temperature and dewpoint trends is too low to issue at this time,
but will monitor for possible issuance around midday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Biggest forecast challenge comes with a conditional probability of
some severe thunderstorms today...generally along and south of the
OH River. Potent cold front will be surging south into very moist
and unstable regime today. Sfc dew points are already pooling
into the mid 70s across this region...and temperatures by noon
will likely already have surged into the 90s. Cold front should
have progressed south to somewhere near the OH River by early PM.
Two factors that could limit/suppress convective development
include limited deep moisture and thermal capping that may be
present. If storms mange to form though...they will have more than
enough CAPE and bulk shear to work with to reach severe levels.

Cold front should be south of the region by early evening, ending
any storm threat and allowing much cooler and less humid air to
flow into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term
will be dominated by unseasonably cool and dry conditions, which
seem to be returning every week or so. Quite unusual for late July.
In fact, should be within a few degrees of record lows by Tue
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

By Wednesday, weak sfc high pressure will be settled over the
region, as a large upper trough continues to impact the eastern half
of the nation with an upper level low pinwheeling over eastern
Canada. Even though models hint at minor disturbances in this
northwest flow pattern, moisture will be confined to just the lower
levels on Wednesday and early Thursday, so we should remain dry for
the most part. By Thursday night, a strong wave is progged to move
through the area which might be enough to produce some convection,
especially given the fact that moisture should be increasing aloft
by that time too. Will keep POPS low at this point.

The bigger synoptic change will come at the end of the week and into
the weekend, when an even stronger piece of energy digs down across
the western Great Lakes and carves a deeper trough over our region
and eventually a cut off upper low develops over/near the region
during the weekend sometime, though models are still not agreeing on
timing and location attm. This should bring an increasing chance for
precipitation. This general idea is also supported by the 12z/00Z
GFS precipitation ensembles, which hint at the possibility of
convection with this upper system. No real warm surges expected this
week as H85 temperatures really remain unchanged in the extended as
sfc winds/low level winds remain out of the north/northeast. These
N/NE winds will also keep dewpoints at bay, which means humidity
levels should remain fairly comfortable, especially for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

It appears at this time that any convection today is likely to be
south and east of the terminals. The thick cu deck should settle
in at VFR levels, and it should generally thin out through the
afternoon. The cold frontal wind shift will take winds to the west
northwest at KCGI and KEVV right at the beginning of the period,
and KPAH and KOWB through the afternoon. As winds become northwest
mixing may take gusts up above 20kts at times. The main issue for
tomorrow will be an expansive stratocu deck as the cooler air
aloft advects over the region. Cannot rule out some MVFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB in the late morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-087-
     111-112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271521
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VAD wind profiles across the region this morning indicate that
25-30kts of westerly momentum is available to mix down today.
Portions of west Kentucky should reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria
this morning, and most locations along and east of the Mississippi
River should easily reach criteria behind the cold front this
afternoon. The strongest winds should be later this afternoon
behind the front. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for all but
the 6 westernmost counties of southeast Missouri until 7 PM.

The cu field has a very stable look to it over southern Illinois
and southwest Indiana, so it is safe to say the cap is still
overhead. The convection allowing models are having a hard time
developing much convection over our region through the day. Figure
the best chances will be right along the eastern border areas, and
possibly along the TN border late this afternoon, when the front
reaches that region. Kept PoPs in the 20-30% range and used areal
coverage wording. If storms can develop, supercells will be
possible with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. The
storms will be moving quickly to the east southeast, so would not
expect much of a heavy rain threat. For spotters out there, keep
in mind that the storms will be oriented about 90 degrees from
what we typically see.

Temperatures are running hot over the southern half of the area
where there is plenty of sunshine as of 15Z. Sped up the warming
trend this morning, but figure increasing clouds and eventually
some cool advection will cut off warming early this afternoon.
High temperatures were not impacted signficantly. The dewpoint
forecast was on track and looked reasonable through the day, so
with a minor increase in temperature, heat indices are really
pushing Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Confidence in the
temperature and dewpoint trends is too low to issue at this time,
but will monitor for possible issuance around midday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Biggest forecast challenge comes with a conditional probability of
some severe thunderstorms today...generally along and south of the
OH River. Potent cold front will be surging south into very moist
and unstable regime today. Sfc dew points are already pooling
into the mid 70s across this region...and temperatures by noon
will likely already have surged into the 90s. Cold front should
have progressed south to somewhere near the OH River by early PM.
Two factors that could limit/suppress convective development
include limited deep moisture and thermal capping that may be
present. If storms mange to form though...they will have more than
enough CAPE and bulk shear to work with to reach severe levels.

Cold front should be south of the region by early evening, ending
any storm threat and allowing much cooler and less humid air to
flow into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term
will be dominated by unseasonably cool and dry conditions, which
seem to be returning every week or so. Quite unusual for late July.
In fact, should be within a few degrees of record lows by Tue
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

By Wednesday, weak sfc high pressure will be settled over the
region, as a large upper trough continues to impact the eastern half
of the nation with an upper level low pinwheeling over eastern
Canada. Even though models hint at minor disturbances in this
northwest flow pattern, moisture will be confined to just the lower
levels on Wednesday and early Thursday, so we should remain dry for
the most part. By Thursday night, a strong wave is progged to move
through the area which might be enough to produce some convection,
especially given the fact that moisture should be increasing aloft
by that time too. Will keep POPS low at this point.

The bigger synoptic change will come at the end of the week and into
the weekend, when an even stronger piece of energy digs down across
the western Great Lakes and carves a deeper trough over our region
and eventually a cut off upper low develops over/near the region
during the weekend sometime, though models are still not agreeing on
timing and location attm. This should bring an increasing chance for
precipitation. This general idea is also supported by the 12z/00Z
GFS precipitation ensembles, which hint at the possibility of
convection with this upper system. No real warm surges expected this
week as H85 temperatures really remain unchanged in the extended as
sfc winds/low level winds remain out of the north/northeast. These
N/NE winds will also keep dewpoints at bay, which means humidity
levels should remain fairly comfortable, especially for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-087-
     111-112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271521
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VAD wind profiles across the region this morning indicate that
25-30kts of westerly momentum is available to mix down today.
Portions of west Kentucky should reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria
this morning, and most locations along and east of the Mississippi
River should easily reach criteria behind the cold front this
afternoon. The strongest winds should be later this afternoon
behind the front. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for all but
the 6 westernmost counties of southeast Missouri until 7 PM.

The cu field has a very stable look to it over southern Illinois
and southwest Indiana, so it is safe to say the cap is still
overhead. The convection allowing models are having a hard time
developing much convection over our region through the day. Figure
the best chances will be right along the eastern border areas, and
possibly along the TN border late this afternoon, when the front
reaches that region. Kept PoPs in the 20-30% range and used areal
coverage wording. If storms can develop, supercells will be
possible with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. The
storms will be moving quickly to the east southeast, so would not
expect much of a heavy rain threat. For spotters out there, keep
in mind that the storms will be oriented about 90 degrees from
what we typically see.

Temperatures are running hot over the southern half of the area
where there is plenty of sunshine as of 15Z. Sped up the warming
trend this morning, but figure increasing clouds and eventually
some cool advection will cut off warming early this afternoon.
High temperatures were not impacted signficantly. The dewpoint
forecast was on track and looked reasonable through the day, so
with a minor increase in temperature, heat indices are really
pushing Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Confidence in the
temperature and dewpoint trends is too low to issue at this time,
but will monitor for possible issuance around midday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Biggest forecast challenge comes with a conditional probability of
some severe thunderstorms today...generally along and south of the
OH River. Potent cold front will be surging south into very moist
and unstable regime today. Sfc dew points are already pooling
into the mid 70s across this region...and temperatures by noon
will likely already have surged into the 90s. Cold front should
have progressed south to somewhere near the OH River by early PM.
Two factors that could limit/suppress convective development
include limited deep moisture and thermal capping that may be
present. If storms mange to form though...they will have more than
enough CAPE and bulk shear to work with to reach severe levels.

Cold front should be south of the region by early evening, ending
any storm threat and allowing much cooler and less humid air to
flow into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term
will be dominated by unseasonably cool and dry conditions, which
seem to be returning every week or so. Quite unusual for late July.
In fact, should be within a few degrees of record lows by Tue
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

By Wednesday, weak sfc high pressure will be settled over the
region, as a large upper trough continues to impact the eastern half
of the nation with an upper level low pinwheeling over eastern
Canada. Even though models hint at minor disturbances in this
northwest flow pattern, moisture will be confined to just the lower
levels on Wednesday and early Thursday, so we should remain dry for
the most part. By Thursday night, a strong wave is progged to move
through the area which might be enough to produce some convection,
especially given the fact that moisture should be increasing aloft
by that time too. Will keep POPS low at this point.

The bigger synoptic change will come at the end of the week and into
the weekend, when an even stronger piece of energy digs down across
the western Great Lakes and carves a deeper trough over our region
and eventually a cut off upper low develops over/near the region
during the weekend sometime, though models are still not agreeing on
timing and location attm. This should bring an increasing chance for
precipitation. This general idea is also supported by the 12z/00Z
GFS precipitation ensembles, which hint at the possibility of
convection with this upper system. No real warm surges expected this
week as H85 temperatures really remain unchanged in the extended as
sfc winds/low level winds remain out of the north/northeast. These
N/NE winds will also keep dewpoints at bay, which means humidity
levels should remain fairly comfortable, especially for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-087-
     111-112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP









000
FXUS63 KPAH 270828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Biggest forecast challenge comes with a conditional probability of
some severe thunderstorms today...generally along and south of the
OH River. Potent cold front will be surging south into very moist
and unstable regime today. Sfc dew points are already pooling
into the mid 70s across this region...and temperatures by noon
will likely already have surged into the 90s. Cold front should
have progressed south to somewhere near the OH River by early PM.
Two factors that could limit/suppress convective development
include limited deep moisture and thermal capping that may be
present. If storms mange to form though...they will have more than
enough CAPE and bulk shear to work with to reach severe levels.

Cold front should be south of the region by early evening, ending
any storm threat and allowing much cooler and less humid air to
flow into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term
will be dominated by unseasonably cool and dry conditions, which
seem to be returning every week or so. Quite unusual for late July.
In fact, should be within a few degrees of record lows by Tue
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

By Wednesday, weak sfc high pressure will be settled over the
region, as a large upper trough continues to impact the eastern half
of the nation with an upper level low pinwheeling over eastern
Canada. Even though models hint at minor disturbances in this
northwest flow pattern, moisture will be confined to just the lower
levels on Wednesday and early Thursday, so we should remain dry for
the most part. By Thursday night, a strong wave is progged to move
through the area which might be enough to produce some convection,
especially given the fact that moisture should be increasing aloft
by that time too. Will keep POPS low at this point.

The bigger synoptic change will come at the end of the week and into
the weekend, when an even stronger piece of energy digs down across
the western Great Lakes and carves a deeper trough over our region
and eventually a cut off upper low develops over/near the region
during the weekend sometime, though models are still not agreeing on
timing and location attm. This should bring an increasing chance for
precipitation. This general idea is also supported by the 12z/00Z
GFS precipitation ensembles, which hint at the possibility of
convection with this upper system. No real warm surges expected this
week as H85 temperatures really remain unchanged in the extended as
sfc winds/low level winds remain out of the north/northeast. These
N/NE winds will also keep dewpoints at bay, which means humidity
levels should remain fairly comfortable, especially for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 270828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Biggest forecast challenge comes with a conditional probability of
some severe thunderstorms today...generally along and south of the
OH River. Potent cold front will be surging south into very moist
and unstable regime today. Sfc dew points are already pooling
into the mid 70s across this region...and temperatures by noon
will likely already have surged into the 90s. Cold front should
have progressed south to somewhere near the OH River by early PM.
Two factors that could limit/suppress convective development
include limited deep moisture and thermal capping that may be
present. If storms mange to form though...they will have more than
enough CAPE and bulk shear to work with to reach severe levels.

Cold front should be south of the region by early evening, ending
any storm threat and allowing much cooler and less humid air to
flow into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term
will be dominated by unseasonably cool and dry conditions, which
seem to be returning every week or so. Quite unusual for late July.
In fact, should be within a few degrees of record lows by Tue
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

By Wednesday, weak sfc high pressure will be settled over the
region, as a large upper trough continues to impact the eastern half
of the nation with an upper level low pinwheeling over eastern
Canada. Even though models hint at minor disturbances in this
northwest flow pattern, moisture will be confined to just the lower
levels on Wednesday and early Thursday, so we should remain dry for
the most part. By Thursday night, a strong wave is progged to move
through the area which might be enough to produce some convection,
especially given the fact that moisture should be increasing aloft
by that time too. Will keep POPS low at this point.

The bigger synoptic change will come at the end of the week and into
the weekend, when an even stronger piece of energy digs down across
the western Great Lakes and carves a deeper trough over our region
and eventually a cut off upper low develops over/near the region
during the weekend sometime, though models are still not agreeing on
timing and location attm. This should bring an increasing chance for
precipitation. This general idea is also supported by the 12z/00Z
GFS precipitation ensembles, which hint at the possibility of
convection with this upper system. No real warm surges expected this
week as H85 temperatures really remain unchanged in the extended as
sfc winds/low level winds remain out of the north/northeast. These
N/NE winds will also keep dewpoints at bay, which means humidity
levels should remain fairly comfortable, especially for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270435 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

All evidence points to the cap (see ILX and DVN 18Z RAOBS)
holding strong across the area late this afternoon and tonight.
The lone exception may be along the I-64 corridor, where a
complex of thunderstorms may push rapidly eastward generally in
the 01Z-05Z timeframe this evening.

The HRRR is still unable to generate a larger-scale bowing system,
as seen on some of the shorter range models this morning. The 12Z NAM
and GFS soundings show some weakness at times in the mid-level
flow across our north, so the overall organization of any storms
that develop may not be as significant as previously thought.

Individual storm cells may have enough 0-3KM SRH to support
rotating updrafts and would not be surprised to see some
supercells initially, where storms can develop this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be possible, and a few
tornadoes can not be ruled out with any individual cells this
evening. However, figure the cap will suppress any activity that
tries to dip south of I-64, or possibly even into our northern-
most counties.

The mid-upper 70 dewpoints have descended upon the region as expected,
and heat indices have reached triple digits over much of the area.
Already issued a Special Weather Statement for the heat. It should
subside by 7 PM, and would be surprised to see values above 105,
so will not be issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

Overnight, the models struggle to generate much, if any,
convection over our region, so will keep PoPs at 30% or less.

The cold front will move through the region Sunday, and the low
to mid 70 dewpoints and temperatures well into the 90s are
expected ahead of it over the southeast 2/3 of the area in the
afternoon. This could lead to heat indices near today`s levels,
and a righteous airmass for strong to severe thunderstorms to feed
on. Winds ahead of the front will be nearly due west, and quite
strong, pushing Lake Wind Advisory levels, especially east of the
Mississippi River. The veered winds result in only weak
convergence along the boundary, so thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be widely scattered to scattered, with better coverage
later in the day along the Tennessee border. Certainly cannot rule
out a few severe storms mainly over west Kentucky and southwest
Indiana. The consensus of guidance is that most if not all of
the convective activity will shift south of the area by early
Sunday evening.

Will have a dry forecast for the entire area overnight Sunday
through Monday Night. A deep trough over the Great Lakes and
northeast will keep the area in strong northwest flow aloft
through the period. North winds will bring much cooler and drier
air into the region through the period, as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended.

High pressure aloft will be firmly in place over west with a
persistent upper level trough over the east. This will place in a
much drier northerly flow in the fronts wake. This will also result
in unseasonable low RH reading for most of the upcoming week. By the
end of the week the upper level trough deepens and even suggest a
cut off upper low forming the lower Tennessee Valley Friday into the
weekend. This will allow for at least daytime storm chances mainly
in the afternoon with max heating...but could not rule out some
activity into the evening hours.

Temperatures will much cooler than normal through the extended with
lower to middle 80s for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 270435 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

All evidence points to the cap (see ILX and DVN 18Z RAOBS)
holding strong across the area late this afternoon and tonight.
The lone exception may be along the I-64 corridor, where a
complex of thunderstorms may push rapidly eastward generally in
the 01Z-05Z timeframe this evening.

The HRRR is still unable to generate a larger-scale bowing system,
as seen on some of the shorter range models this morning. The 12Z NAM
and GFS soundings show some weakness at times in the mid-level
flow across our north, so the overall organization of any storms
that develop may not be as significant as previously thought.

Individual storm cells may have enough 0-3KM SRH to support
rotating updrafts and would not be surprised to see some
supercells initially, where storms can develop this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be possible, and a few
tornadoes can not be ruled out with any individual cells this
evening. However, figure the cap will suppress any activity that
tries to dip south of I-64, or possibly even into our northern-
most counties.

The mid-upper 70 dewpoints have descended upon the region as expected,
and heat indices have reached triple digits over much of the area.
Already issued a Special Weather Statement for the heat. It should
subside by 7 PM, and would be surprised to see values above 105,
so will not be issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

Overnight, the models struggle to generate much, if any,
convection over our region, so will keep PoPs at 30% or less.

The cold front will move through the region Sunday, and the low
to mid 70 dewpoints and temperatures well into the 90s are
expected ahead of it over the southeast 2/3 of the area in the
afternoon. This could lead to heat indices near today`s levels,
and a righteous airmass for strong to severe thunderstorms to feed
on. Winds ahead of the front will be nearly due west, and quite
strong, pushing Lake Wind Advisory levels, especially east of the
Mississippi River. The veered winds result in only weak
convergence along the boundary, so thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be widely scattered to scattered, with better coverage
later in the day along the Tennessee border. Certainly cannot rule
out a few severe storms mainly over west Kentucky and southwest
Indiana. The consensus of guidance is that most if not all of
the convective activity will shift south of the area by early
Sunday evening.

Will have a dry forecast for the entire area overnight Sunday
through Monday Night. A deep trough over the Great Lakes and
northeast will keep the area in strong northwest flow aloft
through the period. North winds will bring much cooler and drier
air into the region through the period, as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended.

High pressure aloft will be firmly in place over west with a
persistent upper level trough over the east. This will place in a
much drier northerly flow in the fronts wake. This will also result
in unseasonable low RH reading for most of the upcoming week. By the
end of the week the upper level trough deepens and even suggest a
cut off upper low forming the lower Tennessee Valley Friday into the
weekend. This will allow for at least daytime storm chances mainly
in the afternoon with max heating...but could not rule out some
activity into the evening hours.

Temperatures will much cooler than normal through the extended with
lower to middle 80s for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AVIATION...JP









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