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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181154
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
654 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The convection over southwest Missouri is sagging southward and
should not pose any problems for our area. Another less impressive
band of convection was located from northwest Tennessee southeast
into northern Alabama. Much of the 00Z guidance generates some QPF
along this line farther northwest into southeast Missouri toward
12Z. The NAM and GFS soundings indicate very meager elevated
instability that could support a thunderstorm in our far western
counties early this morning. Will have just a slight chance in the
far west through about 14Z, but it is highly likely that the entire
area will remain dry this morning.

500mb heights really climb tonight into Friday, as the upper ridge
builds eastward into the region. At the surface, high pressure
will continue to dominate through the day Friday. A weak surface
trough may move east into the Pennyrile region late Friday or
Friday night. There will be increased low-level moisture east of
this trough, and it would not be surprising to see some
drizzle, light showers or sprinkles near this trough over the
Pennyrile late Friday night or early Saturday. Will keep the
forecast dry, as the 00Z models are mostly dry, but will continue
to monitor as it gets closer in time.

Saturday the upper ridge gets flattened out, but the 500mb flow is
still very weak through the day, so the cold front will stay well
northwest of the area. South winds will finally develop, as the
cold front approaches and the high shifts east. Saturday will be
quite warm with some mid and upper 80 highs likely. The humidity
is also likely to be on the rise through the day.

As for temperatures, generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs today and Friday due to the surface high holding strong
over the region. Trended toward the warm side of guidance for
Saturday. Generally stayed on the mild side of guidance for lows
tonight and Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Extended forecast trends more and more toward ECMWF and GFS Ensemble
solutions.

Will continue idea of holding off most of the precip with the cold
front over the weekend until mainly after midnight Saturday Night.
Feel convection will enter the northwest sections prior to midnight
and slowly spread southeast overtaking the entire CWA during the day
on Sunday. Rainfall amounts are a real question. All models keep
most areas less than 1/4 of an inch. Isolated pockets of heavier
rain likely with stronger convection. Concerned about tropical
moisture from the remnants currently over the southwest. Will this
moisture still be over our region on Sunday? Will continue to watch
at this point.

High pressure builds in by Monday, so expect dry weather through
midweek and probably into the early part of next weekend. Gradual
warming starts Wednesday and should continue until the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 654 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Surface high pressure will push back westward across the entire
area today. Northeast winds and a drying/clearing trend can be
expected. MVFR ceilings over southeast Missouri should lift to
VFR levels late this morning. Guidance seems too pessimistic on
the clearing at KCGI and KPAH, and too aggressive on fog
formation tonight at KCGI. Won`t be surprised to see a bit
stronger northeast winds than currently forecast today, and a
more persistent wind through the night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 181154
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
654 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The convection over southwest Missouri is sagging southward and
should not pose any problems for our area. Another less impressive
band of convection was located from northwest Tennessee southeast
into northern Alabama. Much of the 00Z guidance generates some QPF
along this line farther northwest into southeast Missouri toward
12Z. The NAM and GFS soundings indicate very meager elevated
instability that could support a thunderstorm in our far western
counties early this morning. Will have just a slight chance in the
far west through about 14Z, but it is highly likely that the entire
area will remain dry this morning.

500mb heights really climb tonight into Friday, as the upper ridge
builds eastward into the region. At the surface, high pressure
will continue to dominate through the day Friday. A weak surface
trough may move east into the Pennyrile region late Friday or
Friday night. There will be increased low-level moisture east of
this trough, and it would not be surprising to see some
drizzle, light showers or sprinkles near this trough over the
Pennyrile late Friday night or early Saturday. Will keep the
forecast dry, as the 00Z models are mostly dry, but will continue
to monitor as it gets closer in time.

Saturday the upper ridge gets flattened out, but the 500mb flow is
still very weak through the day, so the cold front will stay well
northwest of the area. South winds will finally develop, as the
cold front approaches and the high shifts east. Saturday will be
quite warm with some mid and upper 80 highs likely. The humidity
is also likely to be on the rise through the day.

As for temperatures, generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs today and Friday due to the surface high holding strong
over the region. Trended toward the warm side of guidance for
Saturday. Generally stayed on the mild side of guidance for lows
tonight and Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Extended forecast trends more and more toward ECMWF and GFS Ensemble
solutions.

Will continue idea of holding off most of the precip with the cold
front over the weekend until mainly after midnight Saturday Night.
Feel convection will enter the northwest sections prior to midnight
and slowly spread southeast overtaking the entire CWA during the day
on Sunday. Rainfall amounts are a real question. All models keep
most areas less than 1/4 of an inch. Isolated pockets of heavier
rain likely with stronger convection. Concerned about tropical
moisture from the remnants currently over the southwest. Will this
moisture still be over our region on Sunday? Will continue to watch
at this point.

High pressure builds in by Monday, so expect dry weather through
midweek and probably into the early part of next weekend. Gradual
warming starts Wednesday and should continue until the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 654 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Surface high pressure will push back westward across the entire
area today. Northeast winds and a drying/clearing trend can be
expected. MVFR ceilings over southeast Missouri should lift to
VFR levels late this morning. Guidance seems too pessimistic on
the clearing at KCGI and KPAH, and too aggressive on fog
formation tonight at KCGI. Won`t be surprised to see a bit
stronger northeast winds than currently forecast today, and a
more persistent wind through the night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 180820
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The convection over southwest Missouri is sagging southward and
should not pose any problems for our area. Another less impressive
band of convection was located from northwest Tennessee southeast
into northern Alabama. Much of the 00Z guidance generates some QPF
along this line farther northwest into southeast Missouri toward
12Z. The NAM and GFS soundings indicate very meager elevated
instability that could support a thunderstorm in our far western
counties early this morning. Will have just a slight chance in the
far west through about 14Z, but it is highly likely that the entire
area will remain dry this morning.

500mb heights really climb tonight into Friday, as the upper ridge
builds eastward into the region. At the surface, high pressure
will continue to dominate through the day Friday. A weak surface
trough may move east into the Pennyrile region late Friday or
Friday night. There will be increased low-level moisture east of
this trough, and it would not be surprising to see some
drizzle, light showers or sprinkles near this trough over the
Pennyrile late Friday night or early Saturday. Will keep the
forecast dry, as the 00Z models are mostly dry, but will continue
to monitor as it gets closer in time.

Saturday the upper ridge gets flattened out, but the 500mb flow is
still very weak through the day, so the cold front will stay well
northwest of the area. South winds will finally develop, as the
cold front approaches and the high shifts east. Saturday will be
quite warm with some mid and upper 80 highs likely. The humidity
is also likely to be on the rise through the day.

As for temperatures, generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs today and Friday due to the surface high holding strong
over the region. Trended toward the warm side of guidance for
Saturday. Generally stayed on the mild side of guidance for lows
tonight and Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Extended forecast trends more and more toward ECMWF and GFS Ensemble
solutions.

Will continue idea of holding off most of the precip with the cold
front over the weekend until mainly after midnight Saturday Night.
Feel convection will enter the northwest sections prior to midnight
and slowly spread southeast overtaking the entire CWA during the day
on Sunday. Rainfall amounts are a real question. All models keep
most areas less than 1/4 of an inch. Isolated pockets of heavier
rain likely with stronger convection. Concerned about tropical
moisture from the remnants currently over the southwest. Will this
moisture still be over our region on Sunday? Will continue to watch
at this point.

High pressure builds in by Monday, so expect dry weather through
midweek and probably into the early part of next weekend. Gradual
warming starts Wednesday and should continue until the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR ceilings will prevail at the majority of forecast terminals over
the next 24 hours. KCGI stands the best chance of an intermittent
MVFR ceiling late tonight and Thursday morning given the presence of
more abundant low level moisture. The development of fog late
tonight may reduce visibilities to MVFR or even IFR at times, at
KCGI and perhaps KPAH in particular. However, the fog should not be
as widespread or dense as last night given the extent of sky cover.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will result in east to northeast
winds less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 180820
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The convection over southwest Missouri is sagging southward and
should not pose any problems for our area. Another less impressive
band of convection was located from northwest Tennessee southeast
into northern Alabama. Much of the 00Z guidance generates some QPF
along this line farther northwest into southeast Missouri toward
12Z. The NAM and GFS soundings indicate very meager elevated
instability that could support a thunderstorm in our far western
counties early this morning. Will have just a slight chance in the
far west through about 14Z, but it is highly likely that the entire
area will remain dry this morning.

500mb heights really climb tonight into Friday, as the upper ridge
builds eastward into the region. At the surface, high pressure
will continue to dominate through the day Friday. A weak surface
trough may move east into the Pennyrile region late Friday or
Friday night. There will be increased low-level moisture east of
this trough, and it would not be surprising to see some
drizzle, light showers or sprinkles near this trough over the
Pennyrile late Friday night or early Saturday. Will keep the
forecast dry, as the 00Z models are mostly dry, but will continue
to monitor as it gets closer in time.

Saturday the upper ridge gets flattened out, but the 500mb flow is
still very weak through the day, so the cold front will stay well
northwest of the area. South winds will finally develop, as the
cold front approaches and the high shifts east. Saturday will be
quite warm with some mid and upper 80 highs likely. The humidity
is also likely to be on the rise through the day.

As for temperatures, generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs today and Friday due to the surface high holding strong
over the region. Trended toward the warm side of guidance for
Saturday. Generally stayed on the mild side of guidance for lows
tonight and Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Extended forecast trends more and more toward ECMWF and GFS Ensemble
solutions.

Will continue idea of holding off most of the precip with the cold
front over the weekend until mainly after midnight Saturday Night.
Feel convection will enter the northwest sections prior to midnight
and slowly spread southeast overtaking the entire CWA during the day
on Sunday. Rainfall amounts are a real question. All models keep
most areas less than 1/4 of an inch. Isolated pockets of heavier
rain likely with stronger convection. Concerned about tropical
moisture from the remnants currently over the southwest. Will this
moisture still be over our region on Sunday? Will continue to watch
at this point.

High pressure builds in by Monday, so expect dry weather through
midweek and probably into the early part of next weekend. Gradual
warming starts Wednesday and should continue until the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR ceilings will prevail at the majority of forecast terminals over
the next 24 hours. KCGI stands the best chance of an intermittent
MVFR ceiling late tonight and Thursday morning given the presence of
more abundant low level moisture. The development of fog late
tonight may reduce visibilities to MVFR or even IFR at times, at
KCGI and perhaps KPAH in particular. However, the fog should not be
as widespread or dense as last night given the extent of sky cover.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will result in east to northeast
winds less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 180513
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The short term will begin with the region buried within a
deep/broad nw flow regime aloft. This has created quite an active
pattern with multiple MCS type systems passing se through the
Plains over the past 24 hours. Most of the strongest activity has
remained just west of our se MO counties tho...and this looks to
remain the case over the next day or so. Will keep small pops in
west of the MS river in case more development overnight or Thu
clips them again. After Thu, models are in good agreement that
mid lvl ridging will take place, resulting in warming temps and
little if any chc for rainfall. Should be quite nice with low
humidity levels leading into the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The major differences with the Sunday/Monday fronts is with the qpf
amounts. The 12z Wed GFS shows a moisture starved frontal system.
Although it does crank out some qpf so not a dry front anyway. In
contrast the 00z Wed ECMWF runs shows more moisture with this system
and has been for numerous days now. Odile continues to push
northeast toward TX and OK panhandle...penetrating the upper high
aided by a pacific trough breaking the ridge down from the west. If
this scenario comes to fruition the Sunday/Monday cold fronts could
tap into this tropical moisture source which would provide ample
moisture for widespread showers and storms. The GEM and the SREF
support the additional moisture scenario of the ECMWF. However Most
models with the exception of ECMWF have all the precip out of the fa
by 6z Mon. The ECMWF was slower but the new 12z Wed just came in and
it to is faster. So main changes were to slow the arrival of precip
in fa until 6z Sunday and move it out 6z Monday. Otherwise just
minor tweaks to qpf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR ceilings will prevail at the majority of forecast terminals over
the next 24 hours. KCGI stands the best chance of an intermittent
MVFR ceiling late tonight and Thursday morning given the presence of
more abundant low level moisture. The development of fog late
tonight may reduce visibilities to MVFR or even IFR at times, at
KCGI and perhaps KPAH in particular. However, the fog should not be
as widespread or dense as last night given the extent of sky cover.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will result in east to northeast
winds less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 180513
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The short term will begin with the region buried within a
deep/broad nw flow regime aloft. This has created quite an active
pattern with multiple MCS type systems passing se through the
Plains over the past 24 hours. Most of the strongest activity has
remained just west of our se MO counties tho...and this looks to
remain the case over the next day or so. Will keep small pops in
west of the MS river in case more development overnight or Thu
clips them again. After Thu, models are in good agreement that
mid lvl ridging will take place, resulting in warming temps and
little if any chc for rainfall. Should be quite nice with low
humidity levels leading into the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The major differences with the Sunday/Monday fronts is with the qpf
amounts. The 12z Wed GFS shows a moisture starved frontal system.
Although it does crank out some qpf so not a dry front anyway. In
contrast the 00z Wed ECMWF runs shows more moisture with this system
and has been for numerous days now. Odile continues to push
northeast toward TX and OK panhandle...penetrating the upper high
aided by a pacific trough breaking the ridge down from the west. If
this scenario comes to fruition the Sunday/Monday cold fronts could
tap into this tropical moisture source which would provide ample
moisture for widespread showers and storms. The GEM and the SREF
support the additional moisture scenario of the ECMWF. However Most
models with the exception of ECMWF have all the precip out of the fa
by 6z Mon. The ECMWF was slower but the new 12z Wed just came in and
it to is faster. So main changes were to slow the arrival of precip
in fa until 6z Sunday and move it out 6z Monday. Otherwise just
minor tweaks to qpf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR ceilings will prevail at the majority of forecast terminals over
the next 24 hours. KCGI stands the best chance of an intermittent
MVFR ceiling late tonight and Thursday morning given the presence of
more abundant low level moisture. The development of fog late
tonight may reduce visibilities to MVFR or even IFR at times, at
KCGI and perhaps KPAH in particular. However, the fog should not be
as widespread or dense as last night given the extent of sky cover.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will result in east to northeast
winds less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP









000
FXUS63 KPAH 172355
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
655 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The short term will begin with the region buried within a
deep/broad nw flow regime aloft. This has created quite an active
pattern with multiple MCS type systems passing se through the
Plains over the past 24 hours. Most of the strongest activity has
remained just west of our se MO counties tho...and this looks to
remain the case over the next day or so. Will keep small pops in
west of the MS river in case more development overnight or Thu
clips them again. After Thu, models are in good agreement that
mid lvl ridging will take place, resulting in warming temps and
little if any chc for rainfall. Should be quite nice with low
humidity levels leading into the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The major differences with the Sunday/Monday fronts is with the qpf
amounts. The 12z Wed GFS shows a moisture starved frontal system.
Although it does crank out some qpf so not a dry front anyway. In
contrast the 00z Wed ECMWF runs shows more moisture with this system
and has been for numerous days now. Odile continues to push
northeast toward TX and OK panhandle...penetrating the upper high
aided by a pacific trough breaking the ridge down from the west. If
this scenario comes to fruition the Sunday/Monday cold fronts could
tap into this tropical moisture source which would provide ample
moisture for widespread showers and storms. The GEM and the SREF
support the additional moisture scenario of the ECMWF. However Most
models with the exception of ECMWF have all the precip out of the fa
by 6z Mon. The ECMWF was slower but the new 12z Wed just came in and
it to is faster. So main changes were to slow the arrival of precip
in fa until 6z Sunday and move it out 6z Monday. Otherwise just
minor tweaks to qpf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR ceilings will prevail at the majority of forecast terminals over
the next 24 hours. At KCGI however, more abundant low level moisture
will result in MVFR ceilings much of tonight into Thursday morning.
The development of fog after midnight should reduce visibilities to
MVFR or even IFR at times. However, the fog is not expected to be as
dense as last night given the extent of sky cover. High pressure
over the Great Lakes will result in east to northeast winds less
than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 172355
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
655 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The short term will begin with the region buried within a
deep/broad nw flow regime aloft. This has created quite an active
pattern with multiple MCS type systems passing se through the
Plains over the past 24 hours. Most of the strongest activity has
remained just west of our se MO counties tho...and this looks to
remain the case over the next day or so. Will keep small pops in
west of the MS river in case more development overnight or Thu
clips them again. After Thu, models are in good agreement that
mid lvl ridging will take place, resulting in warming temps and
little if any chc for rainfall. Should be quite nice with low
humidity levels leading into the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The major differences with the Sunday/Monday fronts is with the qpf
amounts. The 12z Wed GFS shows a moisture starved frontal system.
Although it does crank out some qpf so not a dry front anyway. In
contrast the 00z Wed ECMWF runs shows more moisture with this system
and has been for numerous days now. Odile continues to push
northeast toward TX and OK panhandle...penetrating the upper high
aided by a pacific trough breaking the ridge down from the west. If
this scenario comes to fruition the Sunday/Monday cold fronts could
tap into this tropical moisture source which would provide ample
moisture for widespread showers and storms. The GEM and the SREF
support the additional moisture scenario of the ECMWF. However Most
models with the exception of ECMWF have all the precip out of the fa
by 6z Mon. The ECMWF was slower but the new 12z Wed just came in and
it to is faster. So main changes were to slow the arrival of precip
in fa until 6z Sunday and move it out 6z Monday. Otherwise just
minor tweaks to qpf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR ceilings will prevail at the majority of forecast terminals over
the next 24 hours. At KCGI however, more abundant low level moisture
will result in MVFR ceilings much of tonight into Thursday morning.
The development of fog after midnight should reduce visibilities to
MVFR or even IFR at times. However, the fog is not expected to be as
dense as last night given the extent of sky cover. High pressure
over the Great Lakes will result in east to northeast winds less
than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 171849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The short term will begin with the region buried within a
deep/broad nw flow regime aloft. This has created quite an active
pattern with multiple MCS type systems passing se through the
Plains over the past 24 hours. Most of the strongest activity has
remained just west of our se MO counties tho...and this looks to
remain the case over the next day or so. Will keep small pops in
west of the MS river in case more development overnight or Thu
clips them again. After Thu, models are in good agreement that
mid lvl ridging will take place, resulting in warming temps and
little if any chc for rainfall. Should be quite nice with low
humidity levels leading into the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The major differences with the Sunday/Monday fronts is with the qpf
amounts. The 12z Wed GFS shows a moisture starved frontal system.
Although it does crank out some qpf so not a dry front anyway. In
contrast the 00z Wed ECMWF runs shows more moisture with this system
and has been for numerous days now. Odile continues to push
northeast toward TX and OK panhandle...penetrating the upper high
aided by a pacific trough breaking the ridge down from the west. If
this scenario comes to fruition the Sunday/Monday cold fronts could
tap into this tropical moisture source which would provide ample
moisture for widespread showers and storms. The GEM and the SREF
support the additional moisture scenario of the ECMWF. However Most
models with the exception of ECMWF have all the precip out of the fa
by 6z Mon. The ECMWF was slower but the new 12z Wed just came in and
it to is faster. So main changes were to slow the arrival of precip
in fa until 6z Sunday and move it out 6z Monday. Otherwise just
minor tweaks to qpf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Expect VFR conditions throughout until after 06z tonight, when
IFR fog/cigs may once again become a concern.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...MEFFERT








000
FXUS63 KPAH 171849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The short term will begin with the region buried within a
deep/broad nw flow regime aloft. This has created quite an active
pattern with multiple MCS type systems passing se through the
Plains over the past 24 hours. Most of the strongest activity has
remained just west of our se MO counties tho...and this looks to
remain the case over the next day or so. Will keep small pops in
west of the MS river in case more development overnight or Thu
clips them again. After Thu, models are in good agreement that
mid lvl ridging will take place, resulting in warming temps and
little if any chc for rainfall. Should be quite nice with low
humidity levels leading into the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The major differences with the Sunday/Monday fronts is with the qpf
amounts. The 12z Wed GFS shows a moisture starved frontal system.
Although it does crank out some qpf so not a dry front anyway. In
contrast the 00z Wed ECMWF runs shows more moisture with this system
and has been for numerous days now. Odile continues to push
northeast toward TX and OK panhandle...penetrating the upper high
aided by a pacific trough breaking the ridge down from the west. If
this scenario comes to fruition the Sunday/Monday cold fronts could
tap into this tropical moisture source which would provide ample
moisture for widespread showers and storms. The GEM and the SREF
support the additional moisture scenario of the ECMWF. However Most
models with the exception of ECMWF have all the precip out of the fa
by 6z Mon. The ECMWF was slower but the new 12z Wed just came in and
it to is faster. So main changes were to slow the arrival of precip
in fa until 6z Sunday and move it out 6z Monday. Otherwise just
minor tweaks to qpf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Expect VFR conditions throughout until after 06z tonight, when
IFR fog/cigs may once again become a concern.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...MEFFERT







000
FXUS63 KPAH 171836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

In the near term...the main issue is fog that has developed
overnight. Though it is very difficult to estimate the depth and
coverage of the fog...all of the available surface obs from southern
Illinois /except Metropolis/ indicate vsbys are below a mile as of
08z. Will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for southern IL only. While
there are a few reports of dense fog elsewhere...it should be
relatively patchy and shallow in those areas.

The fog will burn off by mid morning...followed quickly by the
return of cloud cover. The leading edge of these clouds was
already along a KPOF/KFAM line at 08z. These clouds will
overspread the remainder of se Missouri and all of southern
Illinois by 13z.

Radar indicates scattered showers and storms forming over eastern
Kansas...which is in good agreement with the models. This activity
is associated with a mid level shortwave moving southeast into the
Plains. The shower activity will develop quickly eastward into
southeast Missouri this morning along a fairly strong low level
moisture gradient. The showers will dry up as they move into drier
air over western Kentucky and southeast Illinois...but the models
disagree on how far east they will make it. Will continue with
chance pops in southeast Missouri and slight chance pops in far
west Kentucky and sw Illinois. Due to widespread cloudiness...will
forecast high temps on the cool side of the model guidance
envelope...similar to ecmwf mos.

For tonight...the models indicate precip will linger across
southeast Missouri along the low level moisture gradient as
another upper level impulse moves southeast. Elevated instability
is forecast to increase over southeast MO this evening. Capes will
be near 1000 j/kg for parcels based around 900 mb /per 00z nam/.
Will continue with mention of thunder tonight. The eastern extent
of cloudiness tonight will play a role in the low temp forecast.
Given the strong gradient of cloud cover and dew points...there
may be a large temperature range from west to east late tonight.

On Thursday...surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region
will bring a surge of drier air on northeast winds. This will
shunt the moisture gradient and associated cloudiness westward.
Expect lots of sunshine by afternoon in all areas. This will help
temps reach the 70s despite the slight cooling at 850 mb.

On Friday...upper level ridging will build across our
region...ensuring dry conditions and somewhat warmer temps.

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

The extended forecast is virtually unchanged from yesterday. A ridge
of high pressure aloft Saturday will give way to increasing
northwest/cyclonic flow, as the upper flow amplifies significantly
heading into next week.

The ECMWF, GFS, and GEM have diverged a bit with the timing of this
amplification and also in the fate of T.S. Odile. The GFS and GEM
are in reasonable agreement with the storm system Saturday night and
Sunday, but the GFS is more amplified by Sunday. Neither model shows
much in the way of coherent return flow ahead of the cold front, and
the GEM, which keeps the tropical remnants over the southern Plains,
really struggles to generate QPF over our region. The GFS seems to
bring the remnants across at least southeast Missouri Saturday
night, but that does not lead to a significant QPF output.

The 00Z ECMWF is much slower with the amplification process, and
doesn`t bring the cold front through until Sunday night. It takes
the tropical remnants from southwest Missouri into Arkansas Sunday
night as well. This is a significant change from just 24 hours ago,
so will discount it at this time.

Typically when there is a consistent signal in the models for 2 to 3
days, its time to ramp up PoPs.  However in this case, will keep
them at the 40% level, since there is a reasonable chance that parts
of the region will see little, if any, rainfall.

Guidance seems to be warming up for highs on Saturday. The ECMWF MOS
has a high of 87. This forecast is a degree or so higher than
yesterday`s forecast, which is just shy of the ECMWF guidance.
Probably the biggest question for temperatures will be on Sunday,
with the potential for precipitation in the slower ECMWF solution,
and the weaker initial frontal passage of the GFS solution. This
forecast may be a bit cool Sunday. Temperatures should drop well
below normal by Monday and Tuesday of next week. It appears that the
better cold advection may occur Monday night into Tuesday, so
Tuesday will definitely be the coolest day of the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Expect VFR conditions throughout until after 06z tonight, when
IFR fog/cigs may once again become a concern.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 171836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

In the near term...the main issue is fog that has developed
overnight. Though it is very difficult to estimate the depth and
coverage of the fog...all of the available surface obs from southern
Illinois /except Metropolis/ indicate vsbys are below a mile as of
08z. Will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for southern IL only. While
there are a few reports of dense fog elsewhere...it should be
relatively patchy and shallow in those areas.

The fog will burn off by mid morning...followed quickly by the
return of cloud cover. The leading edge of these clouds was
already along a KPOF/KFAM line at 08z. These clouds will
overspread the remainder of se Missouri and all of southern
Illinois by 13z.

Radar indicates scattered showers and storms forming over eastern
Kansas...which is in good agreement with the models. This activity
is associated with a mid level shortwave moving southeast into the
Plains. The shower activity will develop quickly eastward into
southeast Missouri this morning along a fairly strong low level
moisture gradient. The showers will dry up as they move into drier
air over western Kentucky and southeast Illinois...but the models
disagree on how far east they will make it. Will continue with
chance pops in southeast Missouri and slight chance pops in far
west Kentucky and sw Illinois. Due to widespread cloudiness...will
forecast high temps on the cool side of the model guidance
envelope...similar to ecmwf mos.

For tonight...the models indicate precip will linger across
southeast Missouri along the low level moisture gradient as
another upper level impulse moves southeast. Elevated instability
is forecast to increase over southeast MO this evening. Capes will
be near 1000 j/kg for parcels based around 900 mb /per 00z nam/.
Will continue with mention of thunder tonight. The eastern extent
of cloudiness tonight will play a role in the low temp forecast.
Given the strong gradient of cloud cover and dew points...there
may be a large temperature range from west to east late tonight.

On Thursday...surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region
will bring a surge of drier air on northeast winds. This will
shunt the moisture gradient and associated cloudiness westward.
Expect lots of sunshine by afternoon in all areas. This will help
temps reach the 70s despite the slight cooling at 850 mb.

On Friday...upper level ridging will build across our
region...ensuring dry conditions and somewhat warmer temps.

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

The extended forecast is virtually unchanged from yesterday. A ridge
of high pressure aloft Saturday will give way to increasing
northwest/cyclonic flow, as the upper flow amplifies significantly
heading into next week.

The ECMWF, GFS, and GEM have diverged a bit with the timing of this
amplification and also in the fate of T.S. Odile. The GFS and GEM
are in reasonable agreement with the storm system Saturday night and
Sunday, but the GFS is more amplified by Sunday. Neither model shows
much in the way of coherent return flow ahead of the cold front, and
the GEM, which keeps the tropical remnants over the southern Plains,
really struggles to generate QPF over our region. The GFS seems to
bring the remnants across at least southeast Missouri Saturday
night, but that does not lead to a significant QPF output.

The 00Z ECMWF is much slower with the amplification process, and
doesn`t bring the cold front through until Sunday night. It takes
the tropical remnants from southwest Missouri into Arkansas Sunday
night as well. This is a significant change from just 24 hours ago,
so will discount it at this time.

Typically when there is a consistent signal in the models for 2 to 3
days, its time to ramp up PoPs.  However in this case, will keep
them at the 40% level, since there is a reasonable chance that parts
of the region will see little, if any, rainfall.

Guidance seems to be warming up for highs on Saturday. The ECMWF MOS
has a high of 87. This forecast is a degree or so higher than
yesterday`s forecast, which is just shy of the ECMWF guidance.
Probably the biggest question for temperatures will be on Sunday,
with the potential for precipitation in the slower ECMWF solution,
and the weaker initial frontal passage of the GFS solution. This
forecast may be a bit cool Sunday. Temperatures should drop well
below normal by Monday and Tuesday of next week. It appears that the
better cold advection may occur Monday night into Tuesday, so
Tuesday will definitely be the coolest day of the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Expect VFR conditions throughout until after 06z tonight, when
IFR fog/cigs may once again become a concern.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 170832
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

In the near term...the main issue is fog that has developed
overnight. Though it is very difficult to estimate the depth and
coverage of the fog...all of the available surface obs from southern
Illinois /except Metropolis/ indicate vsbys are below a mile as of
08z. Will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for southern IL only. While
there are a few reports of dense fog elsewhere...it should be
relatively patchy and shallow in those areas.

The fog will burn off by mid morning...followed quickly by the
return of cloud cover. The leading edge of these clouds was
already along a KPOF/KFAM line at 08z. These clouds will
overspread the remainder of se Missouri and all of southern
Illinois by 13z.

Radar indicates scattered showers and storms forming over eastern
Kansas...which is in good agreement with the models. This activity
is associated with a mid level shortwave moving southeast into the
Plains. The shower activity will develop quickly eastward into
southeast Missouri this morning along a fairly strong low level
moisture gradient. The showers will dry up as they move into drier
air over western Kentucky and southeast Illinois...but the models
disagree on how far east they will make it. Will continue with
chance pops in southeast Missouri and slight chance pops in far
west Kentucky and sw Illinois. Due to widespread cloudiness...will
forecast high temps on the cool side of the model guidance
envelope...similar to ecmwf mos.

For tonight...the models indicate precip will linger across
southeast Missouri along the low level moisture gradient as
another upper level impulse moves southeast. Elevated instability
is forecast to increase over southeast MO this evening. Capes will
be near 1000 j/kg for parcels based around 900 mb /per 00z nam/.
Will continue with mention of thunder tonight. The eastern extent
of cloudiness tonight will play a role in the low temp forecast.
Given the strong gradient of cloud cover and dew points...there
may be a large temperature range from west to east late tonight.

On Thursday...surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region
will bring a surge of drier air on northeast winds. This will
shunt the moisture gradient and associated cloudiness westward.
Expect lots of sunshine by afternoon in all areas. This will help
temps reach the 70s despite the slight cooling at 850 mb.

On Friday...upper level ridging will build across our
region...ensuring dry conditions and somewhat warmer temps.

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

The extended forecast is virtually unchanged from yesterday. A ridge
of high pressure aloft Saturday will give way to increasing
northwest/cyclonic flow, as the upper flow amplifies significantly
heading into next week.

The ECMWF, GFS, and GEM have diverged a bit with the timing of this
amplification and also in the fate of T.S. Odile. The GFS and GEM
are in reasonable agreement with the storm system Saturday night and
Sunday, but the GFS is more amplified by Sunday. Neither model shows
much in the way of coherent return flow ahead of the cold front, and
the GEM, which keeps the tropical remnants over the southern Plains,
really struggles to generate QPF over our region. The GFS seems to
bring the remnants across at least southeast Missouri Saturday
night, but that does not lead to a significant QPF output.

The 00Z ECMWF is much slower with the amplification process, and
doesn`t bring the cold front through until Sunday night. It takes
the tropical remnants from southwest Missouri into Arkansas Sunday
night as well. This is a significant change from just 24 hours ago,
so will discount it at this time.

Typically when there is a consistent signal in the models for 2 to 3
days, its time to ramp up PoPs.  However in this case, will keep
them at the 40% level, since there is a reasonable chance that parts
of the region will see little, if any, rainfall.

Guidance seems to be warming up for highs on Saturday. The ECMWF MOS
has a high of 87. This forecast is a degree or so higher than
yesterday`s forecast, which is just shy of the ECMWF guidance.
Probably the biggest question for temperatures will be on Sunday,
with the potential for precipitation in the slower ECMWF solution,
and the weaker initial frontal passage of the GFS solution. This
forecast may be a bit cool Sunday. Temperatures should drop well
below normal by Monday and Tuesday of next week. It appears that the
better cold advection may occur Monday night into Tuesday, so
Tuesday will definitely be the coolest day of the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

Areas of fog will burn off by mid morning. The fog is rather
shallow and patchy at kpah as of 08z...but without the benefit of
webcams there is no way to estimate its depth at other locations.
ASOS vsbys will be near one quarter mile at kcgi and kpah at
times...but kevv and kowb will likely stay higher.

For kpah and kcgi...low and mid clouds will overspread the region
this morning...with mainly vfr cigs anticipated today and tonight.
Areas of light rain are not expected to significantly impact
vsbys.

For kevv and kowb...the clouds will be mainly of the mid to high
variety...and no rain is expected there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY






000
FXUS63 KPAH 170832
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

In the near term...the main issue is fog that has developed
overnight. Though it is very difficult to estimate the depth and
coverage of the fog...all of the available surface obs from southern
Illinois /except Metropolis/ indicate vsbys are below a mile as of
08z. Will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for southern IL only. While
there are a few reports of dense fog elsewhere...it should be
relatively patchy and shallow in those areas.

The fog will burn off by mid morning...followed quickly by the
return of cloud cover. The leading edge of these clouds was
already along a KPOF/KFAM line at 08z. These clouds will
overspread the remainder of se Missouri and all of southern
Illinois by 13z.

Radar indicates scattered showers and storms forming over eastern
Kansas...which is in good agreement with the models. This activity
is associated with a mid level shortwave moving southeast into the
Plains. The shower activity will develop quickly eastward into
southeast Missouri this morning along a fairly strong low level
moisture gradient. The showers will dry up as they move into drier
air over western Kentucky and southeast Illinois...but the models
disagree on how far east they will make it. Will continue with
chance pops in southeast Missouri and slight chance pops in far
west Kentucky and sw Illinois. Due to widespread cloudiness...will
forecast high temps on the cool side of the model guidance
envelope...similar to ecmwf mos.

For tonight...the models indicate precip will linger across
southeast Missouri along the low level moisture gradient as
another upper level impulse moves southeast. Elevated instability
is forecast to increase over southeast MO this evening. Capes will
be near 1000 j/kg for parcels based around 900 mb /per 00z nam/.
Will continue with mention of thunder tonight. The eastern extent
of cloudiness tonight will play a role in the low temp forecast.
Given the strong gradient of cloud cover and dew points...there
may be a large temperature range from west to east late tonight.

On Thursday...surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region
will bring a surge of drier air on northeast winds. This will
shunt the moisture gradient and associated cloudiness westward.
Expect lots of sunshine by afternoon in all areas. This will help
temps reach the 70s despite the slight cooling at 850 mb.

On Friday...upper level ridging will build across our
region...ensuring dry conditions and somewhat warmer temps.

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

The extended forecast is virtually unchanged from yesterday. A ridge
of high pressure aloft Saturday will give way to increasing
northwest/cyclonic flow, as the upper flow amplifies significantly
heading into next week.

The ECMWF, GFS, and GEM have diverged a bit with the timing of this
amplification and also in the fate of T.S. Odile. The GFS and GEM
are in reasonable agreement with the storm system Saturday night and
Sunday, but the GFS is more amplified by Sunday. Neither model shows
much in the way of coherent return flow ahead of the cold front, and
the GEM, which keeps the tropical remnants over the southern Plains,
really struggles to generate QPF over our region. The GFS seems to
bring the remnants across at least southeast Missouri Saturday
night, but that does not lead to a significant QPF output.

The 00Z ECMWF is much slower with the amplification process, and
doesn`t bring the cold front through until Sunday night. It takes
the tropical remnants from southwest Missouri into Arkansas Sunday
night as well. This is a significant change from just 24 hours ago,
so will discount it at this time.

Typically when there is a consistent signal in the models for 2 to 3
days, its time to ramp up PoPs.  However in this case, will keep
them at the 40% level, since there is a reasonable chance that parts
of the region will see little, if any, rainfall.

Guidance seems to be warming up for highs on Saturday. The ECMWF MOS
has a high of 87. This forecast is a degree or so higher than
yesterday`s forecast, which is just shy of the ECMWF guidance.
Probably the biggest question for temperatures will be on Sunday,
with the potential for precipitation in the slower ECMWF solution,
and the weaker initial frontal passage of the GFS solution. This
forecast may be a bit cool Sunday. Temperatures should drop well
below normal by Monday and Tuesday of next week. It appears that the
better cold advection may occur Monday night into Tuesday, so
Tuesday will definitely be the coolest day of the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

Areas of fog will burn off by mid morning. The fog is rather
shallow and patchy at kpah as of 08z...but without the benefit of
webcams there is no way to estimate its depth at other locations.
ASOS vsbys will be near one quarter mile at kcgi and kpah at
times...but kevv and kowb will likely stay higher.

For kpah and kcgi...low and mid clouds will overspread the region
this morning...with mainly vfr cigs anticipated today and tonight.
Areas of light rain are not expected to significantly impact
vsbys.

For kevv and kowb...the clouds will be mainly of the mid to high
variety...and no rain is expected there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 170458
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

(Note to customer: This section includes a discussion covering both
the short and long term forecast periods).

Surface High pressure migrates east across the mid to upper Ohio
river valley tonight-tmrw. Some weak warm air advection returns,
mainly in the Semo Ozarks, around the High`s backside, with small
rain chances Wednesday.

Afterwards, upper ridging/heights rising leads to a more robust
warmup as high pressure to the east pumps warm southerlies across
the mid MS/lower OH valley. Temps will return to summer like 80s
by this weekend, with lows and dew points likewise climbing back
to more summer like humidity levels in the 60s.

This will all occur ahead of a developing front that will approach
Saturday, and then sweep into the region with high chance cat Pops
from Sat night-Sun night. After this system`s passage, we cool
back to seasonal temps for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

With this issuance, added a mention of MVFR fog to each of the TAF
sites through 12z Wednesday. Also, added MIFG for KCGI and KPAH to
handle ground fog issues in the 5nm radius around the airports.
Otherwise, slowed down timing of lower clouds and precipitation
mention at KEVV.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DH
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 170458
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

(Note to customer: This section includes a discussion covering both
the short and long term forecast periods).

Surface High pressure migrates east across the mid to upper Ohio
river valley tonight-tmrw. Some weak warm air advection returns,
mainly in the Semo Ozarks, around the High`s backside, with small
rain chances Wednesday.

Afterwards, upper ridging/heights rising leads to a more robust
warmup as high pressure to the east pumps warm southerlies across
the mid MS/lower OH valley. Temps will return to summer like 80s
by this weekend, with lows and dew points likewise climbing back
to more summer like humidity levels in the 60s.

This will all occur ahead of a developing front that will approach
Saturday, and then sweep into the region with high chance cat Pops
from Sat night-Sun night. After this system`s passage, we cool
back to seasonal temps for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

With this issuance, added a mention of MVFR fog to each of the TAF
sites through 12z Wednesday. Also, added MIFG for KCGI and KPAH to
handle ground fog issues in the 5nm radius around the airports.
Otherwise, slowed down timing of lower clouds and precipitation
mention at KEVV.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DH
AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KPAH 162347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

(Note to customer: This section includes a discussion covering both
the short and long term forecast periods).

Surface High pressure migrates east across the mid to upper Ohio
river valley tonight-tmrw. Some weak warm air advection returns,
mainly in the Semo Ozarks, around the High`s backside, with small
rain chances Wednesday.

Afterwards, upper ridging/heights rising leads to a more robust
warmup as high pressure to the east pumps warm southerlies across
the mid MS/lower OH valley. Temps will return to summer like 80s
by this weekend, with lows and dew points likewise climbing back
to more summer like humidity levels in the 60s.

This will all occur ahead of a developing front that will approach
Saturday, and then sweep into the region with high chance cat Pops
from Sat night-Sun night. After this system`s passage, we cool
back to seasonal temps for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 pm CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The big key for this 00z Wednesday forecast issuance will be the
timing of the lift associated with the approaching warm air
advection and developing warm front over Missouri tonight into
Wednesday. Introduced vicinity showers as far east as KEVV,
switching over to categorical showers at KCGI and KPAH after 20z
Wednesday. With the exception of climatological favored MVFR and
isolated LIFR fog development at KCGI, VFR conditions should
prevail with this forecast package for the remainder of the WFO PAH
TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DH
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 162347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

(Note to customer: This section includes a discussion covering both
the short and long term forecast periods).

Surface High pressure migrates east across the mid to upper Ohio
river valley tonight-tmrw. Some weak warm air advection returns,
mainly in the Semo Ozarks, around the High`s backside, with small
rain chances Wednesday.

Afterwards, upper ridging/heights rising leads to a more robust
warmup as high pressure to the east pumps warm southerlies across
the mid MS/lower OH valley. Temps will return to summer like 80s
by this weekend, with lows and dew points likewise climbing back
to more summer like humidity levels in the 60s.

This will all occur ahead of a developing front that will approach
Saturday, and then sweep into the region with high chance cat Pops
from Sat night-Sun night. After this system`s passage, we cool
back to seasonal temps for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 pm CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The big key for this 00z Wednesday forecast issuance will be the
timing of the lift associated with the approaching warm air
advection and developing warm front over Missouri tonight into
Wednesday. Introduced vicinity showers as far east as KEVV,
switching over to categorical showers at KCGI and KPAH after 20z
Wednesday. With the exception of climatological favored MVFR and
isolated LIFR fog development at KCGI, VFR conditions should
prevail with this forecast package for the remainder of the WFO PAH
TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DH
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 161916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface High pressure migrates east across the mid to upper Ohio
river valley tonight-tmrw. Some weak warm air advection returns,
mainly in the Semo Ozarks, around the High`s backside, with small
rain chances Wednesday.

Afterwards, upper ridging/heights rising leads to a more robust
warmup as high pressure to the east pumps warm southerlys across
the mid MS/lower OH valley. Temps will return to summer like 80s
by this weekend, with lows and dew points likewise climbing back
to more summer like humidity levels in the 60s.

This will all occur ahead of a developing front that will approach
Saturday, and then sweep into the region with high chance cat Pops
from Sat night-Sun night. After this system`s passage, we cool
back to seasonal temps for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Drier air is taking awhile to work down the column, but will
ultimately make it, probably scouring out most MVFR cigs by or
even before this evening. Winds diminish overnight and with
clearing skies, patchy fog may develop late tonight. Gridded time
height cross sections show some return moisture moving in from the
west tmrw morning, but precip chances should refrain from mention
in the terminals, best chance being KCGI if they do occur.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 161916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface High pressure migrates east across the mid to upper Ohio
river valley tonight-tmrw. Some weak warm air advection returns,
mainly in the Semo Ozarks, around the High`s backside, with small
rain chances Wednesday.

Afterwards, upper ridging/heights rising leads to a more robust
warmup as high pressure to the east pumps warm southerlys across
the mid MS/lower OH valley. Temps will return to summer like 80s
by this weekend, with lows and dew points likewise climbing back
to more summer like humidity levels in the 60s.

This will all occur ahead of a developing front that will approach
Saturday, and then sweep into the region with high chance cat Pops
from Sat night-Sun night. After this system`s passage, we cool
back to seasonal temps for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Drier air is taking awhile to work down the column, but will
ultimately make it, probably scouring out most MVFR cigs by or
even before this evening. Winds diminish overnight and with
clearing skies, patchy fog may develop late tonight. Gridded time
height cross sections show some return moisture moving in from the
west tmrw morning, but precip chances should refrain from mention
in the terminals, best chance being KCGI if they do occur.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 161118
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Main concern today is the widespread post-frontal stratus and its
effect on temps. At 08z...the back edge of the stratus extended
from northern Missouri across the KSPI area of Illinois to far
northwest Indiana. The back edge of the stratus is making slow
southward progress around 10 to 15 knots...which brings the
clearing line to KMVN around 19z. This timing is considerably
slower than previously expected. As a result...temps will be
lowered slightly. The clearing trend will likely accelerate by
this afternoon as daytime heating increases mixing heights.
Even so...southeast zones may not clear out until late in the
day.

Any lingering stratus/stratocu should dissipate or move south of
the area early this evening. The overnight hours should be mainly
clear...except for increasing mid clouds over southeast Missouri.
It looks like a pretty good setup for patchy ground fog late
tonight...especially near bodies of water. This is the start of
the climatological fall fog season. Will introduce mention of fog
in the forecast for late tonight. Lows will be very near the dew
points...around 50 degrees.

Main concern Wednesday into Wednesday night is the potential for
clouds/light rain in association with a northwest to southeast
oriented baroclinic zone. This feature is evident in the 00z gfs
900-800 mb frontogenesis fields. Most of the model guidance
indicates the bulk of the moisture and rain will stay west of the
Mississippi River. This includes the 00z ecmwf. The 00z nam and
gfs bring some qpf into western KY and southern IL on Wednesday.
At the very least...expect periods of broken to overcast clouds to
spread into west KY and southern IL during the day. Whatever rain
occurs will be very light...with qpf less than a tenth of an inch.
Pops will be no higher than slight chance east of the Mississippi
River...rising to chance in southeast Missouri. Southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of Kentucky will remain dry. Once
again...clouds may keep temps a little lower than most
guidance...especially over se Missouri.

Thursday should be a mainly sunny day as 500 mb ridging builds in
the wake of the departing 500 mb trough. Strong surface high
pressure over the northeastern states will produce a seasonably
cool and dry easterly flow.

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

The 00Z GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement synoptically
through the extended portion of the forecast, which leads to a
fairly high confidence forecast. Surface high pressure will be
loosening its grip on the region as ridging aloft builds over the
region Thursday night through Saturday. Meanwhile, a rather compact
storm system will form over the central Plains, and ultimately move
southeast through our region, along with a cold front, Saturday
night into Sunday. Surface high pressure and cyclonic northwest flow
aloft can be expected next Monday.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile get caught up in this
developing storm system in all 3 models, so there is likely to be
some enhanced mid and upper-level moisture available with it. The
problem is a lack of low-level moisture return and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Showalter Indices do become negative, so there will be
some meager elevated instability, but would be surprised to see
anything approach severe limits.

The low-level jet in the GFS cranks up to 50kts Saturday night,
which results in some very high 0-3km storm-relative helicity
values, but there is little chance of surface-based convection,
especially with the 06Z-18Z passage of the front and storm system.
The primary concern is likely to be locally heavy rainfall, with
precipitable water values around 1.9". The ECMWF is not quite as
strong with the upper-level storm system and hangs the front up over
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana into Sunday evening. This could
lead to some training which could lead to a greater heavy rainfall
potential. The GFS and GEM are more progressive and would pose
little heavy rainfall potential.

Will confine 40ish PoPs to the Saturday night to Sunday night
periods, with primarily a Sunday cold frontal passage. Temperatures
will trend warmer early on, maxing out a few degrees above normal on
Saturday, and then fall back below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Low stratus deck will gradually lift during the morning. Widespread
IFR cigs will become MVFR by mid morning...then VFR early this
afternoon. A broken cumulus or stratocu deck this afternoon will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating around sunset. Winds will
remain north around 5 to 10 knots today.

Conditions look rather conducive for ground fog late tonight. Will
forecast ifr vsbys for the last few hours of the taf at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KPAH 161118
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Main concern today is the widespread post-frontal stratus and its
effect on temps. At 08z...the back edge of the stratus extended
from northern Missouri across the KSPI area of Illinois to far
northwest Indiana. The back edge of the stratus is making slow
southward progress around 10 to 15 knots...which brings the
clearing line to KMVN around 19z. This timing is considerably
slower than previously expected. As a result...temps will be
lowered slightly. The clearing trend will likely accelerate by
this afternoon as daytime heating increases mixing heights.
Even so...southeast zones may not clear out until late in the
day.

Any lingering stratus/stratocu should dissipate or move south of
the area early this evening. The overnight hours should be mainly
clear...except for increasing mid clouds over southeast Missouri.
It looks like a pretty good setup for patchy ground fog late
tonight...especially near bodies of water. This is the start of
the climatological fall fog season. Will introduce mention of fog
in the forecast for late tonight. Lows will be very near the dew
points...around 50 degrees.

Main concern Wednesday into Wednesday night is the potential for
clouds/light rain in association with a northwest to southeast
oriented baroclinic zone. This feature is evident in the 00z gfs
900-800 mb frontogenesis fields. Most of the model guidance
indicates the bulk of the moisture and rain will stay west of the
Mississippi River. This includes the 00z ecmwf. The 00z nam and
gfs bring some qpf into western KY and southern IL on Wednesday.
At the very least...expect periods of broken to overcast clouds to
spread into west KY and southern IL during the day. Whatever rain
occurs will be very light...with qpf less than a tenth of an inch.
Pops will be no higher than slight chance east of the Mississippi
River...rising to chance in southeast Missouri. Southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of Kentucky will remain dry. Once
again...clouds may keep temps a little lower than most
guidance...especially over se Missouri.

Thursday should be a mainly sunny day as 500 mb ridging builds in
the wake of the departing 500 mb trough. Strong surface high
pressure over the northeastern states will produce a seasonably
cool and dry easterly flow.

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

The 00Z GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement synoptically
through the extended portion of the forecast, which leads to a
fairly high confidence forecast. Surface high pressure will be
loosening its grip on the region as ridging aloft builds over the
region Thursday night through Saturday. Meanwhile, a rather compact
storm system will form over the central Plains, and ultimately move
southeast through our region, along with a cold front, Saturday
night into Sunday. Surface high pressure and cyclonic northwest flow
aloft can be expected next Monday.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile get caught up in this
developing storm system in all 3 models, so there is likely to be
some enhanced mid and upper-level moisture available with it. The
problem is a lack of low-level moisture return and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Showalter Indices do become negative, so there will be
some meager elevated instability, but would be surprised to see
anything approach severe limits.

The low-level jet in the GFS cranks up to 50kts Saturday night,
which results in some very high 0-3km storm-relative helicity
values, but there is little chance of surface-based convection,
especially with the 06Z-18Z passage of the front and storm system.
The primary concern is likely to be locally heavy rainfall, with
precipitable water values around 1.9". The ECMWF is not quite as
strong with the upper-level storm system and hangs the front up over
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana into Sunday evening. This could
lead to some training which could lead to a greater heavy rainfall
potential. The GFS and GEM are more progressive and would pose
little heavy rainfall potential.

Will confine 40ish PoPs to the Saturday night to Sunday night
periods, with primarily a Sunday cold frontal passage. Temperatures
will trend warmer early on, maxing out a few degrees above normal on
Saturday, and then fall back below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Low stratus deck will gradually lift during the morning. Widespread
IFR cigs will become MVFR by mid morning...then VFR early this
afternoon. A broken cumulus or stratocu deck this afternoon will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating around sunset. Winds will
remain north around 5 to 10 knots today.

Conditions look rather conducive for ground fog late tonight. Will
forecast ifr vsbys for the last few hours of the taf at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 160831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Main concern today is the widespread post-frontal stratus and its
effect on temps. At 08z...the back edge of the stratus extended
from northern Missouri across the KSPI area of Illinois to far
northwest Indiana. The back edge of the stratus is making slow
southward progress around 10 to 15 knots...which brings the
clearing line to KMVN around 19z. This timing is considerably
slower than previously expected. As a result...temps will be
lowered slightly. The clearing trend will likely accelerate by
this afternoon as daytime heating increases mixing heights.
Even so...southeast zones may not clear out until late in the
day.

Any lingering stratus/stratocu should dissipate or move south of
the area early this evening. The overnight hours should be mainly
clear...except for increasing mid clouds over southeast Missouri.
It looks like a pretty good setup for patchy ground fog late
tonight...especially near bodies of water. This is the start of
the climatological fall fog season. Will introduce mention of fog
in the forecast for late tonight. Lows will be very near the dew
points...around 50 degrees.

Main concern Wednesday into Wednesday night is the potential for
clouds/light rain in association with a northwest to southeast
oriented baroclinic zone. This feature is evident in the 00z gfs
900-800 mb frontogenesis fields. Most of the model guidance
indicates the bulk of the moisture and rain will stay west of the
Mississippi River. This includes the 00z ecmwf. The 00z nam and
gfs bring some qpf into western KY and southern IL on Wednesday.
At the very least...expect periods of broken to overcast clouds to
spread into west KY and southern IL during the day. Whatever rain
occurs will be very light...with qpf less than a tenth of an inch.
Pops will be no higher than slight chance east of the Mississippi
River...rising to chance in southeast Missouri. Southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of Kentucky will remain dry. Once
again...clouds may keep temps a little lower than most
guidance...especially over se Missouri.

Thursday should be a mainly sunny day as 500 mb ridging builds in
the wake of the departing 500 mb trough. Strong surface high
pressure over the northeastern states will produce a seasonably
cool and dry easterly flow.

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

The 00Z GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement synoptically
through the extended portion of the forecast, which leads to a
fairly high confidence forecast. Surface high pressure will be
loosening its grip on the region as ridging aloft builds over the
region Thursday night through Saturday. Meanwhile, a rather compact
storm system will form over the central Plains, and ultimately move
southeast through our region, along with a cold front, Saturday
night into Sunday. Surface high pressure and cyclonic northwest flow
aloft can be expected next Monday.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile get caught up in this
developing storm system in all 3 models, so there is likely to be
some enhanced mid and upper-level moisture available with it. The
problem is a lack of low-level moisture return and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Showalter Indices do become negative, so there will be
some meager elevated instability, but would be surprised to see
anything approach severe limits.

The low-level jet in the GFS cranks up to 50kts Saturday night,
which results in some very high 0-3km storm-relative helicity
values, but there is little chance of surface-based convection,
especially with the 06Z-18Z passage of the front and storm system.
The primary concern is likely to be locally heavy rainfall, with
precipitable water values around 1.9". The ECMWF is not quite as
strong with the upper-level storm system and hangs the front up over
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana into Sunday evening. This could
lead to some training which could lead to a greater heavy rainfall
potential. The GFS and GEM are more progressive and would pose
little heavy rainfall potential.

Will confine 40ish PoPs to the Saturday night to Sunday night
periods, with primarily a Sunday cold frontal passage. Temperatures
will trend warmer early on, maxing out a few degrees above normal on
Saturday, and then fall back below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

The drier and faster solution proposed by the GFS numerical
guidance appears to be occuring at this time. With that in mind,
began the forecast period with IFR conditions along and immediately
behind the cold front. Rapidly improve conditions after 12z with
VFR conditions dominating the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 160831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Main concern today is the widespread post-frontal stratus and its
effect on temps. At 08z...the back edge of the stratus extended
from northern Missouri across the KSPI area of Illinois to far
northwest Indiana. The back edge of the stratus is making slow
southward progress around 10 to 15 knots...which brings the
clearing line to KMVN around 19z. This timing is considerably
slower than previously expected. As a result...temps will be
lowered slightly. The clearing trend will likely accelerate by
this afternoon as daytime heating increases mixing heights.
Even so...southeast zones may not clear out until late in the
day.

Any lingering stratus/stratocu should dissipate or move south of
the area early this evening. The overnight hours should be mainly
clear...except for increasing mid clouds over southeast Missouri.
It looks like a pretty good setup for patchy ground fog late
tonight...especially near bodies of water. This is the start of
the climatological fall fog season. Will introduce mention of fog
in the forecast for late tonight. Lows will be very near the dew
points...around 50 degrees.

Main concern Wednesday into Wednesday night is the potential for
clouds/light rain in association with a northwest to southeast
oriented baroclinic zone. This feature is evident in the 00z gfs
900-800 mb frontogenesis fields. Most of the model guidance
indicates the bulk of the moisture and rain will stay west of the
Mississippi River. This includes the 00z ecmwf. The 00z nam and
gfs bring some qpf into western KY and southern IL on Wednesday.
At the very least...expect periods of broken to overcast clouds to
spread into west KY and southern IL during the day. Whatever rain
occurs will be very light...with qpf less than a tenth of an inch.
Pops will be no higher than slight chance east of the Mississippi
River...rising to chance in southeast Missouri. Southwest Indiana
and the Pennyrile region of Kentucky will remain dry. Once
again...clouds may keep temps a little lower than most
guidance...especially over se Missouri.

Thursday should be a mainly sunny day as 500 mb ridging builds in
the wake of the departing 500 mb trough. Strong surface high
pressure over the northeastern states will produce a seasonably
cool and dry easterly flow.

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

The 00Z GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement synoptically
through the extended portion of the forecast, which leads to a
fairly high confidence forecast. Surface high pressure will be
loosening its grip on the region as ridging aloft builds over the
region Thursday night through Saturday. Meanwhile, a rather compact
storm system will form over the central Plains, and ultimately move
southeast through our region, along with a cold front, Saturday
night into Sunday. Surface high pressure and cyclonic northwest flow
aloft can be expected next Monday.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile get caught up in this
developing storm system in all 3 models, so there is likely to be
some enhanced mid and upper-level moisture available with it. The
problem is a lack of low-level moisture return and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Showalter Indices do become negative, so there will be
some meager elevated instability, but would be surprised to see
anything approach severe limits.

The low-level jet in the GFS cranks up to 50kts Saturday night,
which results in some very high 0-3km storm-relative helicity
values, but there is little chance of surface-based convection,
especially with the 06Z-18Z passage of the front and storm system.
The primary concern is likely to be locally heavy rainfall, with
precipitable water values around 1.9". The ECMWF is not quite as
strong with the upper-level storm system and hangs the front up over
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana into Sunday evening. This could
lead to some training which could lead to a greater heavy rainfall
potential. The GFS and GEM are more progressive and would pose
little heavy rainfall potential.

Will confine 40ish PoPs to the Saturday night to Sunday night
periods, with primarily a Sunday cold frontal passage. Temperatures
will trend warmer early on, maxing out a few degrees above normal on
Saturday, and then fall back below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

The drier and faster solution proposed by the GFS numerical
guidance appears to be occuring at this time. With that in mind,
began the forecast period with IFR conditions along and immediately
behind the cold front. Rapidly improve conditions after 12z with
VFR conditions dominating the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY






000
FXUS63 KPAH 160450
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Updated the grids, to reflect slight tsra chance all locations
through the evening. Greatest surface based instability is west of
I-55. However using Best LI computation off the RUC depicts
adequate elevated instability all locales. Doesn`t mean it will
amount to much. But will have it covered. Kept coverage wording
as isolated for now. Will have to tweak the winds a bit. Temps and
dew points in decent shape. Added mention of patchy light drizzle
post front aft 06z, as 1000-925mb rh really picks up. This lines
up with what our neighboring offices to our North and West have as
well in the grid depiction.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM  CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The drier and faster solution proposed by the GFS numerical
guidance appears to be occuring at this time. With that in mind,
began the forecast period with IFR conditions along and immediately
behind the cold front. Rapidly improve conditions after 12z with
VFR conditions dominating the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CN
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 160450
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Updated the grids, to reflect slight tsra chance all locations
through the evening. Greatest surface based instability is west of
I-55. However using Best LI computation off the RUC depicts
adequate elevated instability all locales. Doesn`t mean it will
amount to much. But will have it covered. Kept coverage wording
as isolated for now. Will have to tweak the winds a bit. Temps and
dew points in decent shape. Added mention of patchy light drizzle
post front aft 06z, as 1000-925mb rh really picks up. This lines
up with what our neighboring offices to our North and West have as
well in the grid depiction.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM  CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The drier and faster solution proposed by the GFS numerical
guidance appears to be occuring at this time. With that in mind,
began the forecast period with IFR conditions along and immediately
behind the cold front. Rapidly improve conditions after 12z with
VFR conditions dominating the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CN
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 152351
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Updated the grids, to reflect slight tsra chance all locations
through the evening. Greatest surface based instability is west of
I-55. However using Best LI computation off the RUC depicts
adequate elevated instability all locales. Doesn`t mean it will
amount to much. But will have it covered. Kept coverage wording
as isolated for now. Will have to tweak the winds a bit. Temps and
dew points in decent shape. Added mention of patchy light drizzle
post front aft 06z, as 1000-925mb rh really picks up. This lines
up with what our neighboring offices to our North and West have as
well in the grid depiction.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

It will not be a very clean frontal passage with respect to
ceilings and visibilities for the 00z Tuesday TAF package. The
dynamics along the front will be more discrete this evening,
allowing for a sharp transition from VFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibilities along the frontal zone.

The big question lies on whether the low level ridge will work
east or south toward 12z Tuesday. This would impact the degree and
speed of cold air advection and transition to higher ceilings/
cloud bases between 12z and 18z Tuesday.

For now, leaned closer to the GFS solution versus the NAM
solution, especially in the treament of precipitation chances and
ceilings around 12z Tuesday. Will need to monitor what develops
over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening and
adjust accordingly.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CN
AVIATION...Smith









000
FXUS63 KPAH 152351
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Updated the grids, to reflect slight tsra chance all locations
through the evening. Greatest surface based instability is west of
I-55. However using Best LI computation off the RUC depicts
adequate elevated instability all locales. Doesn`t mean it will
amount to much. But will have it covered. Kept coverage wording
as isolated for now. Will have to tweak the winds a bit. Temps and
dew points in decent shape. Added mention of patchy light drizzle
post front aft 06z, as 1000-925mb rh really picks up. This lines
up with what our neighboring offices to our North and West have as
well in the grid depiction.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

It will not be a very clean frontal passage with respect to
ceilings and visibilities for the 00z Tuesday TAF package. The
dynamics along the front will be more discrete this evening,
allowing for a sharp transition from VFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibilities along the frontal zone.

The big question lies on whether the low level ridge will work
east or south toward 12z Tuesday. This would impact the degree and
speed of cold air advection and transition to higher ceilings/
cloud bases between 12z and 18z Tuesday.

For now, leaned closer to the GFS solution versus the NAM
solution, especially in the treament of precipitation chances and
ceilings around 12z Tuesday. Will need to monitor what develops
over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening and
adjust accordingly.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CN
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 152332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

It will not be a very clean frontal passage with respect to
ceilings and visibilities for the 00z Tuesday TAF package. The
dynamics along the front will be more discrete this evening,
allowing for a sharp transition from VFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibilities along the frontal zone.

The big question lies on whether the low level ridge will work
east or south toward 12z Tuesday. This would impact the degree and
speed of cold air advection and transition to higher ceilings/
cloud bases between 12z and 18z Tuesday.

For now, leaned closer to the GFS solution versus the NAM
solution, especially in the treament of precipitation chances and
ceilings around 12z Tuesday. Will need to monitor what develops
over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening and
adjust accordingly.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 152332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

It will not be a very clean frontal passage with respect to
ceilings and visibilities for the 00z Tuesday TAF package. The
dynamics along the front will be more discrete this evening,
allowing for a sharp transition from VFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibilities along the frontal zone.

The big question lies on whether the low level ridge will work
east or south toward 12z Tuesday. This would impact the degree and
speed of cold air advection and transition to higher ceilings/
cloud bases between 12z and 18z Tuesday.

For now, leaned closer to the GFS solution versus the NAM
solution, especially in the treament of precipitation chances and
ceilings around 12z Tuesday. Will need to monitor what develops
over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening and
adjust accordingly.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 151826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR cigs this pm/evening will gradually yield to MVFR cigs
overnight as a front moves through. There is even a chance for IFR
cigs at times, particularly if a vicinity shower invades the
terminal. Otherwise anticipate southerlys shifting to northerlys
overnight with fropa, and gradual cigs improvement/scattering
tomorrow as high pressure works in the front`s wake/departure.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 151826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Radar shows light shower activity to our north, associated with
the front, and to our south, associated with some warm air
advection that occurred ahead of the front. The front will move in
this evening, and thru the FA tonight. The HRR has been perhaps
the best model of the short term pcpn, particularly this morning,
but all more or less shrivel up the frontal precip as it moves
south and into our area. We`ll still maintain a 20 pop fa-wide,
and the northeast could see a few percentage points higher, but
we`ll monitor that in the near term and made adjustments
accordingly.

After fropa, drier air wedges in and down the column tmrw,
particularly late tmrw-tmrw night. This occurs as surface high
pressure works in and across the Ohio valley. By Wed., the high
has shifted east and some return flow warm air advection on its
backside introduces a small/slgt chance mention pops in the
Ozarks. This has been a fairly consistent signal and given the
extent of precip this morning from a similar signal, we`ll
continue to carry some low pops for Semo to cover it, Wed-Wed
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The first half of the long term portion of the forecast will see a
trof to the east and a ridge to the west, with our area becoming
more and more influenced by the ridge to the west. This will
result in rising heights and a subsequent warming of the profile.
Highs in the 70s earlier in the week will rebound to the 80s by
the weekend, and lows will do similarly, moving from the 50s to
the 60s in like manner and timing.

Dry weather is forecast into the first half of the weekend, but as
the surface high moves east, return flow kicks in ahead of a
developing frontal system. Jet energy spilling across the High
Plains will lower heights and help drive cylcogenesis and an
eventual front into and through our area, with fairly consistent
member signalling for pops coming in as early as Sat night, and
fropa Sunday. This should result in a return to 70s/50s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR cigs this pm/evening will gradually yield to MVFR cigs
overnight as a front moves through. There is even a chance for IFR
cigs at times, particularly if a vicinity shower invades the
terminal. Otherwise anticipate southerlys shifting to northerlys
overnight with fropa, and gradual cigs improvement/scattering
tomorrow as high pressure works in the front`s wake/departure.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







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