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000
FXUS63 KPAH 281750
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Updated aviation section for 18z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The theme of the short term period will be a warming trend as
surface high pressure moves east of our region. The high pressure
ridge axis extended from Wisconsin to Tennessee early this
morning. Winds were already becoming light southeast across the
forecast area as of 08z. The combination of light winds and some mid
level clouds were keeping temps up enough to prevent much in the
way of fog overnight.

The mid clouds will exit our region early this morning, resulting
in a mostly sunny day. Increasing southerly winds and sunshine
will allow temps to rebound more quickly today. Due to the cold
start to the day (in the 20s), highs will be only in the 40s
with the exception of some lower 50s around kpof.

Tonight and Saturday, strong low level southwest winds will
increase to around 50 knots at 925 mb based on the 00z nam. In
fact, the 00z nam brings 50-knot winds down to 1700 feet agl
tonight at kpah and kevv, but these winds are within a surface-
based inversion. Since mixing will be extremely poor within the
inversion, surface winds should not reach advisory thresholds.

Relatively warm and moist air advecting over the cool ground will
result in widespread stratus cloudiness beginning late tonight in
southeast Missouri and across the entire forecast area Saturday.
The depth of the moisture will be no higher than 850 mb, but it
could be sufficient for areas of drizzle or some very light rain.
Will maintain 20 percent chances of measurable precip. The sheer
strength of the warm advection will push highs to between 55 and
60 on Saturday.

Temps should hold steady or rise slightly Saturday night due to
strong low level southwest winds and abundant low cloudiness.
Areas of drizzle or very light rain will remain possible.

On Sunday, a strong surface cold front will move southeast across
central Missouri and central Illinois. The models continue to
indicate that moisture will remain shallow until the front
arrives, which is beyond the short term forecast period. Therefore,
pops will remain only about 20 percent for many areas on Sunday.
High temps will reach the 60s with gusty south winds continuing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Used GEFS and superblend for most of the forecast except for the
Sunday night to Monday night time frame. There is still a problem
with ECMWF and GFS agreement next week. Overall flow next week
should be more zonal with fast moving systems.

Plenty of low level moisture will be in the area Sunday night into
Monday night and then slowly move out. As the cold front pushes
through Sunday night into Monday, there could be some issues with
freezing rain or drizzle. Used the NAM and other temperature
combination for the shallow cold air mass behind the front.

Looks like by Monday morning there could be some light freezing rain
from northern Wabash county southwest to Benton IL to northern
Carter county. High temperatures on Monday will be in the morning in
most areas. By late Monday afternoon there is the potential for some
rain/freezing rain combination east of a line from about Santa Claus
IN to the lakes region of West KY. Amounts will generally be light
but any ice can be a problem. The precipitation should exit the area
by midnight Monday night and all areas will be above freezing on
Tuesday so this will not be a prolonged event. This is still days
away so the scenario will be adjusted.

Later in the week another weather system will spread rain into the
area, however, it will be warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Main aviation concern through much of the forecast is wind.
Southerly winds will gust up to 20 knots this afternoon. Low level
wind shear will develop tonight as winds increase to around 50 knots
at 1700 feet AGL. A rapid increase in MVFR clouds will take place
late tonight and early Saturday morning. As ceilings continue to
lower through the morning, the development of drizzle is possible by
midday Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281305
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The theme of the short term period will be a warming trend as
surface high pressure moves east of our region. The high pressure
ridge axis extended from Wisconsin to Tennessee early this
morning. Winds were already becoming light southeast across the
forecast area as of 08z. The combination of light winds and some mid
level clouds were keeping temps up enough to prevent much in the
way of fog overnight.

The mid clouds will exit our region early this morning, resulting
in a mostly sunny day. Increasing southerly winds and sunshine
will allow temps to rebound more quickly today. Due to the cold
start to the day (in the 20s), highs will be only in the 40s
with the exception of some lower 50s around kpof.

Tonight and Saturday, strong low level southwest winds will
increase to around 50 knots at 925 mb based on the 00z nam. In
fact, the 00z nam brings 50-knot winds down to 1700 feet agl
tonight at kpah and kevv, but these winds are within a surface-
based inversion. Since mixing will be extremely poor within the
inversion, surface winds should not reach advisory thresholds.

Relatively warm and moist air advecting over the cool ground will
result in widespread stratus cloudiness beginning late tonight in
southeast Missouri and across the entire forecast area Saturday.
The depth of the moisture will be no higher than 850 mb, but it
could be sufficient for areas of drizzle or some very light rain.
Will maintain 20 percent chances of measurable precip. The sheer
strength of the warm advection will push highs to between 55 and
60 on Saturday.

Temps should hold steady or rise slightly Saturday night due to
strong low level southwest winds and abundant low cloudiness.
Areas of drizzle or very light rain will remain possible.

On Sunday, a strong surface cold front will move southeast across
central Missouri and central Illinois. The models continue to
indicate that moisture will remain shallow until the front
arrives, which is beyond the short term forecast period. Therefore,
pops will remain only about 20 percent for many areas on Sunday.
High temps will reach the 60s with gusty south winds continuing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Used GEFS and superblend for most of the forecast except for the
Sunday night to Monday night time frame. There is still a problem
with ECMWF and GFS agreement next week. Overall flow next week
should be more zonal with fast moving systems.

Plenty of low level moisture will be in the area Sunday night into
Monday night and then slowly move out. As the cold front pushes
through Sunday night into Monday, there could be some issues with
freezing rain or drizzle. Used the NAM and other temperature
combination for the shallow cold air mass behind the front.

Looks like by Monday morning there could be some light freezing rain
from northern Wabash county southwest to Benton IL to northern
Carter county. High temperatures on Monday will be in the morning in
most areas. By late Monday afternoon there is the potential for some
rain/freezing rain combination east of a line from about Santa Claus
IN to the lakes region of West KY. Amounts will generally be light
but any ice can be a problem. The precipitation should exit the area
by midnight Monday night and all areas will be above freezing on
Tuesday so this will not be a prolonged event. This is still days
away so the scenario will be adjusted.

Later in the week another weather system will spread rain into the
area, however, it will be warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 705 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Main aviation concern is winds. Winds will increase from the south
today with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Low level wind shear
will become a concern tonight as winds increase to around 50 knots
at 1700 feet agl. No cig or vsby concerns are expected, other than a
bit of haze early this morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 281305
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The theme of the short term period will be a warming trend as
surface high pressure moves east of our region. The high pressure
ridge axis extended from Wisconsin to Tennessee early this
morning. Winds were already becoming light southeast across the
forecast area as of 08z. The combination of light winds and some mid
level clouds were keeping temps up enough to prevent much in the
way of fog overnight.

The mid clouds will exit our region early this morning, resulting
in a mostly sunny day. Increasing southerly winds and sunshine
will allow temps to rebound more quickly today. Due to the cold
start to the day (in the 20s), highs will be only in the 40s
with the exception of some lower 50s around kpof.

Tonight and Saturday, strong low level southwest winds will
increase to around 50 knots at 925 mb based on the 00z nam. In
fact, the 00z nam brings 50-knot winds down to 1700 feet agl
tonight at kpah and kevv, but these winds are within a surface-
based inversion. Since mixing will be extremely poor within the
inversion, surface winds should not reach advisory thresholds.

Relatively warm and moist air advecting over the cool ground will
result in widespread stratus cloudiness beginning late tonight in
southeast Missouri and across the entire forecast area Saturday.
The depth of the moisture will be no higher than 850 mb, but it
could be sufficient for areas of drizzle or some very light rain.
Will maintain 20 percent chances of measurable precip. The sheer
strength of the warm advection will push highs to between 55 and
60 on Saturday.

Temps should hold steady or rise slightly Saturday night due to
strong low level southwest winds and abundant low cloudiness.
Areas of drizzle or very light rain will remain possible.

On Sunday, a strong surface cold front will move southeast across
central Missouri and central Illinois. The models continue to
indicate that moisture will remain shallow until the front
arrives, which is beyond the short term forecast period. Therefore,
pops will remain only about 20 percent for many areas on Sunday.
High temps will reach the 60s with gusty south winds continuing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Used GEFS and superblend for most of the forecast except for the
Sunday night to Monday night time frame. There is still a problem
with ECMWF and GFS agreement next week. Overall flow next week
should be more zonal with fast moving systems.

Plenty of low level moisture will be in the area Sunday night into
Monday night and then slowly move out. As the cold front pushes
through Sunday night into Monday, there could be some issues with
freezing rain or drizzle. Used the NAM and other temperature
combination for the shallow cold air mass behind the front.

Looks like by Monday morning there could be some light freezing rain
from northern Wabash county southwest to Benton IL to northern
Carter county. High temperatures on Monday will be in the morning in
most areas. By late Monday afternoon there is the potential for some
rain/freezing rain combination east of a line from about Santa Claus
IN to the lakes region of West KY. Amounts will generally be light
but any ice can be a problem. The precipitation should exit the area
by midnight Monday night and all areas will be above freezing on
Tuesday so this will not be a prolonged event. This is still days
away so the scenario will be adjusted.

Later in the week another weather system will spread rain into the
area, however, it will be warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 705 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Main aviation concern is winds. Winds will increase from the south
today with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Low level wind shear
will become a concern tonight as winds increase to around 50 knots
at 1700 feet agl. No cig or vsby concerns are expected, other than a
bit of haze early this morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KPAH 280925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The theme of the short term period will be a warming trend as
surface high pressure moves east of our region. The high pressure
ridge axis extended from Wisconsin to Tennessee early this
morning. Winds were already becoming light southeast across the
forecast area as of 08z. The combination of light winds and some mid
level clouds were keeping temps up enough to prevent much in the
way of fog overnight.

The mid clouds will exit our region early this morning, resulting
in a mostly sunny day. Increasing southerly winds and sunshine
will allow temps to rebound more quickly today. Due to the cold
start to the day (in the 20s), highs will be only in the 40s
with the exception of some lower 50s around kpof.

Tonight and Saturday, strong low level southwest winds will
increase to around 50 knots at 925 mb based on the 00z nam. In
fact, the 00z nam brings 50-knot winds down to 1700 feet agl
tonight at kpah and kevv, but these winds are within a surface-
based inversion. Since mixing will be extremely poor within the
inversion, surface winds should not reach advisory thresholds.

Relatively warm and moist air advecting over the cool ground will
result in widespread stratus cloudiness beginning late tonight in
southeast Missouri and across the entire forecast area Saturday.
The depth of the moisture will be no higher than 850 mb, but it
could be sufficient for areas of drizzle or some very light rain.
Will maintain 20 percent chances of measurable precip. The sheer
strength of the warm advection will push highs to between 55 and
60 on Saturday.

Temps should hold steady or rise slightly Saturday night due to
strong low level southwest winds and abundant low cloudiness.
Areas of drizzle or very light rain will remain possible.

On Sunday, a strong surface cold front will move southeast across
central Missouri and central Illinois. The models continue to
indicate that moisture will remain shallow until the front
arrives, which is beyond the short term forecast period. Therefore,
pops will remain only about 20 percent for many areas on Sunday.
High temps will reach the 60s with gusty south winds continuing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Used GEFS and superblend for most of the forecast except for the
Sunday night to Monday night time frame. There is still a problem
with ECMWF and GFS agreement next week. Overall flow next week
should be more zonal with fast moving systems.

Plenty of low level moisture will be in the area Sunday night into
Monday night and then slowly move out. As the cold front pushes
through Sunday night into Monday, there could be some issues with
freezing rain or drizzle. Used the NAM and other temperature
combination for the shallow cold air mass behind the front.

Looks like by Monday morning there could be some light freezing rain
from northern Wabash county southwest to Benton IL to northern
Carter county. High temperatures on Monday will be in the morning in
most areas. By late Monday afternoon there is the potential for some
rain/freezing rain combination east of a line from about Santa Claus
IN to the lakes region of West KY. Amounts will generally be light
but any ice can be a problem. The precipitation should exit the area
by midnight Monday night and all areas will be above freezing on
Tuesday so this will not be a prolonged event. This is still days
away so the scenario will be adjusted.

Later in the week another weather system will spread rain into the
area, however, it will be warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Some patchy fog has been reported around the region early this
morning, but vsbys at the taf sites have remained vfr thus far.
Could not rule out a couple hours of mvfr vsbys around sunrise.
Will continue to monitor. After sunrise, winds will increase from
the south with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Low level wind
shear could become a concern tonight as winds increase to around
50 knots as low as 1700 feet agl. No cig or vsby concerns are
expected after the early morning fog burns off.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The theme of the short term period will be a warming trend as
surface high pressure moves east of our region. The high pressure
ridge axis extended from Wisconsin to Tennessee early this
morning. Winds were already becoming light southeast across the
forecast area as of 08z. The combination of light winds and some mid
level clouds were keeping temps up enough to prevent much in the
way of fog overnight.

The mid clouds will exit our region early this morning, resulting
in a mostly sunny day. Increasing southerly winds and sunshine
will allow temps to rebound more quickly today. Due to the cold
start to the day (in the 20s), highs will be only in the 40s
with the exception of some lower 50s around kpof.

Tonight and Saturday, strong low level southwest winds will
increase to around 50 knots at 925 mb based on the 00z nam. In
fact, the 00z nam brings 50-knot winds down to 1700 feet agl
tonight at kpah and kevv, but these winds are within a surface-
based inversion. Since mixing will be extremely poor within the
inversion, surface winds should not reach advisory thresholds.

Relatively warm and moist air advecting over the cool ground will
result in widespread stratus cloudiness beginning late tonight in
southeast Missouri and across the entire forecast area Saturday.
The depth of the moisture will be no higher than 850 mb, but it
could be sufficient for areas of drizzle or some very light rain.
Will maintain 20 percent chances of measurable precip. The sheer
strength of the warm advection will push highs to between 55 and
60 on Saturday.

Temps should hold steady or rise slightly Saturday night due to
strong low level southwest winds and abundant low cloudiness.
Areas of drizzle or very light rain will remain possible.

On Sunday, a strong surface cold front will move southeast across
central Missouri and central Illinois. The models continue to
indicate that moisture will remain shallow until the front
arrives, which is beyond the short term forecast period. Therefore,
pops will remain only about 20 percent for many areas on Sunday.
High temps will reach the 60s with gusty south winds continuing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Used GEFS and superblend for most of the forecast except for the
Sunday night to Monday night time frame. There is still a problem
with ECMWF and GFS agreement next week. Overall flow next week
should be more zonal with fast moving systems.

Plenty of low level moisture will be in the area Sunday night into
Monday night and then slowly move out. As the cold front pushes
through Sunday night into Monday, there could be some issues with
freezing rain or drizzle. Used the NAM and other temperature
combination for the shallow cold air mass behind the front.

Looks like by Monday morning there could be some light freezing rain
from northern Wabash county southwest to Benton IL to northern
Carter county. High temperatures on Monday will be in the morning in
most areas. By late Monday afternoon there is the potential for some
rain/freezing rain combination east of a line from about Santa Claus
IN to the lakes region of West KY. Amounts will generally be light
but any ice can be a problem. The precipitation should exit the area
by midnight Monday night and all areas will be above freezing on
Tuesday so this will not be a prolonged event. This is still days
away so the scenario will be adjusted.

Later in the week another weather system will spread rain into the
area, however, it will be warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Some patchy fog has been reported around the region early this
morning, but vsbys at the taf sites have remained vfr thus far.
Could not rule out a couple hours of mvfr vsbys around sunrise.
Will continue to monitor. After sunrise, winds will increase from
the south with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Low level wind
shear could become a concern tonight as winds increase to around
50 knots as low as 1700 feet agl. No cig or vsby concerns are
expected after the early morning fog burns off.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...MY






000
FXUS63 KPAH 280536
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 CST THU NOV 27 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have cleared the area. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the
back side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for
VFR conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Could see some fog
development tonight if skies clear out completely. Will monitor. Winds
are light and variable or calm tonight as the high moves through.
Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high Friday
and could become gusty by afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280536
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 CST THU NOV 27 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have cleared the area. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the
back side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for
VFR conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Could see some fog
development tonight if skies clear out completely. Will monitor. Winds
are light and variable or calm tonight as the high moves through.
Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high Friday
and could become gusty by afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 272320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Clearing has taken place at KCGI/KPAH and it might be another hour
or two before we get rid of the clouds in our eastern TAF sites. A
band of mid level clouds will stream overhead tonight as weak warm
advection develops on the back side of departing high pressure.
This will pave the way for VFR conditions and more sunshine on
Friday. Northwest winds this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight as the high moves through. Winds will become
southerly on the back side of the high Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 272320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Clearing has taken place at KCGI/KPAH and it might be another hour
or two before we get rid of the clouds in our eastern TAF sites. A
band of mid level clouds will stream overhead tonight as weak warm
advection develops on the back side of departing high pressure.
This will pave the way for VFR conditions and more sunshine on
Friday. Northwest winds this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight as the high moves through. Winds will become
southerly on the back side of the high Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP









000
FXUS63 KPAH 272052
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the afternoon, though
slow clearing is expected from west to east. Clearing will continue
into the evening, though there is some question as to how quickly
skies will clear at KEVV and KOWB. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the back
side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for VFR
conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Northwest winds this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight as the high moves
through. Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high
Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.


UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care of
a thin layer of ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the afternoon, though
slow clearing is expected from west to east. Clearing will continue
into the evening, though there is some question as to how quickly
skies will clear at KEVV and KOWB. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the back
side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for VFR
conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Northwest winds this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight as the high moves
through. Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high
Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.


UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care of
a thin layer of ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the afternoon, though
slow clearing is expected from west to east. Clearing will continue
into the evening, though there is some question as to how quickly
skies will clear at KEVV and KOWB. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the back
side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for VFR
conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Northwest winds this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight as the high moves
through. Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high
Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care
of a thin layer of ice.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main issue for the TAFs this morning is how quickly the MVFR
ceilings will clear across the region. An area of clearing will
move southeast across the EVV and OWB areas in the next couple of
hours. This should be temporary. Went on the pessimistic side and
have the sites clearing from west to east in the 19Z-01Z
timeframe. There is some guidance that holds onto it much longer
into tonight, so this forecast may not be pessimistic enough.

Looks like some mid-level ceilings will move into the area mainly
overnight tonight, assuming the low clouds have cleared by then.
Northwest winds will continue to gust into the teens at times this
morning, but should subside gradually through the afternoon, as
the surface high approaches.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care
of a thin layer of ice.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main issue for the TAFs this morning is how quickly the MVFR
ceilings will clear across the region. An area of clearing will
move southeast across the EVV and OWB areas in the next couple of
hours. This should be temporary. Went on the pessimistic side and
have the sites clearing from west to east in the 19Z-01Z
timeframe. There is some guidance that holds onto it much longer
into tonight, so this forecast may not be pessimistic enough.

Looks like some mid-level ceilings will move into the area mainly
overnight tonight, assuming the low clouds have cleared by then.
Northwest winds will continue to gust into the teens at times this
morning, but should subside gradually through the afternoon, as
the surface high approaches.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 270857
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The bulk of the snow is falling over the KEVV/KOWB areas with snow
flurries or light rain/drizzle falling at KCGI/KPAH. The
precipitation will likely last several hours and come to an end by
around 09Z. MVFR (or lower) conditions will linger overnight into
Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become northwesterly by tonight
and into tomorrow as the low departs. We should start seeing a
break in the ceilings during the afternoon hours.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP/CW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The bulk of the snow is falling over the KEVV/KOWB areas with snow
flurries or light rain/drizzle falling at KCGI/KPAH. The
precipitation will likely last several hours and come to an end by
around 09Z. MVFR (or lower) conditions will linger overnight into
Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become northwesterly by tonight
and into tomorrow as the low departs. We should start seeing a
break in the ceilings during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW








000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The bulk of the snow is falling over the KEVV/KOWB areas with snow
flurries or light rain/drizzle falling at KCGI/KPAH. The
precipitation will likely last several hours and come to an end by
around 09Z. MVFR (or lower) conditions will linger overnight into
Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become northwesterly by tonight
and into tomorrow as the low departs. We should start seeing a
break in the ceilings during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 262321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Band of rain/snow moving through the area. Any additional activity
at KCGI/KPAH should be tapering off but lingering rain/snow could
continue for a few more hours. At KEVV/KOWB, precipitation is
knocking at the door and will start out as rain but quickly
transition to RASN to eventually all snow. Visibilities and cigs
will come down to MVFR. The precipitation will likely last several
hours and come to an end close to midnight or so. MVFR conditions
will linger overnight into Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become
northwesterly by tonight and into tomorrow as the low departs. We
should start seeing a break in the ceilings during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 262321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Band of rain/snow moving through the area. Any additional activity
at KCGI/KPAH should be tapering off but lingering rain/snow could
continue for a few more hours. At KEVV/KOWB, precipitation is
knocking at the door and will start out as rain but quickly
transition to RASN to eventually all snow. Visibilities and cigs
will come down to MVFR. The precipitation will likely last several
hours and come to an end close to midnight or so. MVFR conditions
will linger overnight into Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become
northwesterly by tonight and into tomorrow as the low departs. We
should start seeing a break in the ceilings during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW








000
FXUS63 KPAH 262102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 262102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP









000
FXUS63 KPAH 261815
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 261815
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 261212
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 612 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

High/mid level clouds will spread across TAF sites through 18z.
Rain will spread east across late this morning into this afternoon
along with MVFR cigs/vsbys. Rain will mix with snow between 23z-
02z, changing to snow at KEVV/KOWB around 02z. MVFR conditions
will continue overnight, with precip ending between 03z-08z. E/NE
winds around 5 kts will gradually become NW overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 261212
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 612 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

High/mid level clouds will spread across TAF sites through 18z.
Rain will spread east across late this morning into this afternoon
along with MVFR cigs/vsbys. Rain will mix with snow between 23z-
02z, changing to snow at KEVV/KOWB around 02z. MVFR conditions
will continue overnight, with precip ending between 03z-08z. E/NE
winds around 5 kts will gradually become NW overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 260854
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 260854
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS63 KPAH 252033
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will rule, though cigs will develop and lower thru
the mid levels again late tonight-early tmrw as a system takes
shape and approaches from the north/west. After w-nwlys today,
diminishing overnight, slys will return tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 252033
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will rule, though cigs will develop and lower thru
the mid levels again late tonight-early tmrw as a system takes
shape and approaches from the north/west. After w-nwlys today,
diminishing overnight, slys will return tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








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