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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230203
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
803 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

With this interim forecast update, removed prior first period
(tonight) reference and adjusted PoP`s, Weather, and other
sensible weather elements to reflect periodic rain chances for the
remainder of the first period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Complicated forecast on tap for the latter part of the short term
period with models not in the best agreement, so forecast confidence
not that good.

A storm system digging southeast across the northern plains will
push a cold front across our region tonight. In the meantime strong
warm air advection and plenty of moisture should continue to
generate rainfall across the area.

There may be a lull in precipitation chances late tonight into
Tuesday morning if we get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but
unfortunately it won`t last long. As a lobe of the parent H5 low
digs southward across the plains, it will induce a surface low/wave
on the front and bring another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances back across the region Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

The most complicated part of the forecast comes on Christmas
Eve, and as mentioned above, models not in good agreement. On
Wednesday a huge area of moisture/wrap around precipitation will be
pulled across the area with the surface/upper low couplet. In the
process, the deeper cold air will begin to filter into the region.
The timing of the arrival of the colder air and associated QPF
varies considerably between models. If the NAM12 were to pan out,
virtually everyone in our CWA would get snowed upon. If the SREF
were to verify, there would be little to no accumulation at all. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions fall somewhere in the middle, so leaned that
way til we see the whites of its eyes and/or subsequent model runs
come into better agreement.

The down side to any snow accumulation will be the antecedent
conditions where temperatures are concerned, ie the ground and
roadways are and will be fairly warm at the onset of snow. Long
story short, have light snow amounts over our far western counties
Wednesday morning, then less than an inch generally north and west
of a line from Fairfield Illinois to Van Buren Missouri Wednesday
afternoon. As the last of the moisture/wrap around QPF exits the
region Wednesday night, there could be minor snow accumulations
over the far northeast sections of our CWA during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will provide the PAH forecast
area with dry conditions and south to southwest winds Thursday into
early Friday.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs
Christmas day in the middle to upper 40s, and Friday in the upper
40s to lower 50s.  Lows Christmas night will be in the middle to
upper 30s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal.

By Friday afternoon, the forecast becomes more challenging, and gets
more confusing through the weekend.  Both GFS and ECMWF bring a weak
cold front through the region late Friday into Friday night, with
GFS the fastest with its passage.  Went with chance pops for rain
showers across the entire PAH forecast area Friday night, mixing
with snow for all but west Kentucky after 06z Saturday.  For the
rest of the weekend, GFS builds in high pressure and keeps our area
dry and near seasonal.  ECMWF brings a surface low just southeast of
the PAH forecast area by 12z Sunday, producing widespread
precipitation mainly Saturday night into early Sunday.  Consensus is
to lean toward the ECMWF, but due to lower confidence, kept pops in
the chance to slight chance categories for now.  Colder air
infiltrating the area would keep us in a rain/snow mix across our
northern half of counties on Saturday, with a rain/snow mix across
our entire area Saturday night.  For Sunday, continued a slight
chance of a rain/snow mix only across our eastern half of
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 615 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/Low IFR cigs should take over all sites between 00z and 06z
this evening, along with MVFR vsbys in br and -shra/dz. Conditions
may improve into the MVFR category 14-17Z Tue, but would probably
be lower end 1-2K ft range.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 230203
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
803 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

With this interim forecast update, removed prior first period
(tonight) reference and adjusted PoP`s, Weather, and other
sensible weather elements to reflect periodic rain chances for the
remainder of the first period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Complicated forecast on tap for the latter part of the short term
period with models not in the best agreement, so forecast confidence
not that good.

A storm system digging southeast across the northern plains will
push a cold front across our region tonight. In the meantime strong
warm air advection and plenty of moisture should continue to
generate rainfall across the area.

There may be a lull in precipitation chances late tonight into
Tuesday morning if we get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but
unfortunately it won`t last long. As a lobe of the parent H5 low
digs southward across the plains, it will induce a surface low/wave
on the front and bring another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances back across the region Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

The most complicated part of the forecast comes on Christmas
Eve, and as mentioned above, models not in good agreement. On
Wednesday a huge area of moisture/wrap around precipitation will be
pulled across the area with the surface/upper low couplet. In the
process, the deeper cold air will begin to filter into the region.
The timing of the arrival of the colder air and associated QPF
varies considerably between models. If the NAM12 were to pan out,
virtually everyone in our CWA would get snowed upon. If the SREF
were to verify, there would be little to no accumulation at all. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions fall somewhere in the middle, so leaned that
way til we see the whites of its eyes and/or subsequent model runs
come into better agreement.

The down side to any snow accumulation will be the antecedent
conditions where temperatures are concerned, ie the ground and
roadways are and will be fairly warm at the onset of snow. Long
story short, have light snow amounts over our far western counties
Wednesday morning, then less than an inch generally north and west
of a line from Fairfield Illinois to Van Buren Missouri Wednesday
afternoon. As the last of the moisture/wrap around QPF exits the
region Wednesday night, there could be minor snow accumulations
over the far northeast sections of our CWA during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will provide the PAH forecast
area with dry conditions and south to southwest winds Thursday into
early Friday.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs
Christmas day in the middle to upper 40s, and Friday in the upper
40s to lower 50s.  Lows Christmas night will be in the middle to
upper 30s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal.

By Friday afternoon, the forecast becomes more challenging, and gets
more confusing through the weekend.  Both GFS and ECMWF bring a weak
cold front through the region late Friday into Friday night, with
GFS the fastest with its passage.  Went with chance pops for rain
showers across the entire PAH forecast area Friday night, mixing
with snow for all but west Kentucky after 06z Saturday.  For the
rest of the weekend, GFS builds in high pressure and keeps our area
dry and near seasonal.  ECMWF brings a surface low just southeast of
the PAH forecast area by 12z Sunday, producing widespread
precipitation mainly Saturday night into early Sunday.  Consensus is
to lean toward the ECMWF, but due to lower confidence, kept pops in
the chance to slight chance categories for now.  Colder air
infiltrating the area would keep us in a rain/snow mix across our
northern half of counties on Saturday, with a rain/snow mix across
our entire area Saturday night.  For Sunday, continued a slight
chance of a rain/snow mix only across our eastern half of
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 615 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/Low IFR cigs should take over all sites between 00z and 06z
this evening, along with MVFR vsbys in br and -shra/dz. Conditions
may improve into the MVFR category 14-17Z Tue, but would probably
be lower end 1-2K ft range.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 230023
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Updated for aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Complicated forecast on tap for the latter part of the short term
period with models not in the best agreement, so forecast confidence
not that good.

A storm system digging southeast across the northern plains will
push a cold front across our region tonight. In the meantime strong
warm air advection and plenty of moisture should continue to
generate rainfall across the area.

There may be a lull in precipitation chances late tonight into
Tuesday morning if we get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but
unfortunately it won`t last long. As a lobe of the parent H5 low
digs southward across the plains, it will induce a surface low/wave
on the front and bring another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances back across the region Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

The most complicated part of the forecast comes on Christmas
Eve, and as mentioned above, models not in good agreement. On
Wednesday a huge area of moisture/wrap around precipitation will be
pulled across the area with the surface/upper low couplet. In the
process, the deeper cold air will begin to filter into the region.
The timing of the arrival of the colder air and associated QPF
varies considerably between models. If the NAM12 were to pan out,
virtually everyone in our CWA would get snowed upon. If the SREF
were to verify, there would be little to no accumulation at all. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions fall somewhere in the middle, so leaned that
way til we see the whites of its eyes and/or subsequent model runs
come into better agreement.

The down side to any snow accumulation will be the antecedent
conditions where temperatures are concerned, ie the ground and
roadways are and will be fairly warm at the onset of snow. Long
story short, have light snow amounts over our far western counties
Wednesday morning, then less than an inch generally north and west
of a line from Fairfield Illinois to Van Buren Missouri Wednesday
afternoon. As the last of the moisture/wrap around QPF exits the
region Wednesday night, there could be minor snow accumulations
over the far northeast sections of our CWA during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will provide the PAH forecast
area with dry conditions and south to southwest winds Thursday into
early Friday.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs
Christmas day in the middle to upper 40s, and Friday in the upper
40s to lower 50s.  Lows Christmas night will be in the middle to
upper 30s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal.

By Friday afternoon, the forecast becomes more challenging, and gets
more confusing through the weekend.  Both GFS and ECMWF bring a weak
cold front through the region late Friday into Friday night, with
GFS the fastest with its passage.  Went with chance pops for rain
showers across the entire PAH forecast area Friday night, mixing
with snow for all but west Kentucky after 06z Saturday.  For the
rest of the weekend, GFS builds in high pressure and keeps our area
dry and near seasonal.  ECMWF brings a surface low just southeast of
the PAH forecast area by 12z Sunday, producing widespread
precipitation mainly Saturday night into early Sunday.  Consensus is
to lean toward the ECMWF, but due to lower confidence, kept pops in
the chance to slight chance categories for now.  Colder air
infiltrating the area would keep us in a rain/snow mix across our
northern half of counties on Saturday, with a rain/snow mix across
our entire area Saturday night.  For Sunday, continued a slight
chance of a rain/snow mix only across our eastern half of
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 615 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/Low IFR cigs should take over all sites between 00z and 06z
this evening, along with MVFR vsbys in br and -shra/dz. Conditions
may improve into the MVFR category 14-17Z Tue, but would probably
be lower end 1-2K ft range.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 230023
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Updated for aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Complicated forecast on tap for the latter part of the short term
period with models not in the best agreement, so forecast confidence
not that good.

A storm system digging southeast across the northern plains will
push a cold front across our region tonight. In the meantime strong
warm air advection and plenty of moisture should continue to
generate rainfall across the area.

There may be a lull in precipitation chances late tonight into
Tuesday morning if we get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but
unfortunately it won`t last long. As a lobe of the parent H5 low
digs southward across the plains, it will induce a surface low/wave
on the front and bring another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances back across the region Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

The most complicated part of the forecast comes on Christmas
Eve, and as mentioned above, models not in good agreement. On
Wednesday a huge area of moisture/wrap around precipitation will be
pulled across the area with the surface/upper low couplet. In the
process, the deeper cold air will begin to filter into the region.
The timing of the arrival of the colder air and associated QPF
varies considerably between models. If the NAM12 were to pan out,
virtually everyone in our CWA would get snowed upon. If the SREF
were to verify, there would be little to no accumulation at all. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions fall somewhere in the middle, so leaned that
way til we see the whites of its eyes and/or subsequent model runs
come into better agreement.

The down side to any snow accumulation will be the antecedent
conditions where temperatures are concerned, ie the ground and
roadways are and will be fairly warm at the onset of snow. Long
story short, have light snow amounts over our far western counties
Wednesday morning, then less than an inch generally north and west
of a line from Fairfield Illinois to Van Buren Missouri Wednesday
afternoon. As the last of the moisture/wrap around QPF exits the
region Wednesday night, there could be minor snow accumulations
over the far northeast sections of our CWA during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will provide the PAH forecast
area with dry conditions and south to southwest winds Thursday into
early Friday.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs
Christmas day in the middle to upper 40s, and Friday in the upper
40s to lower 50s.  Lows Christmas night will be in the middle to
upper 30s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal.

By Friday afternoon, the forecast becomes more challenging, and gets
more confusing through the weekend.  Both GFS and ECMWF bring a weak
cold front through the region late Friday into Friday night, with
GFS the fastest with its passage.  Went with chance pops for rain
showers across the entire PAH forecast area Friday night, mixing
with snow for all but west Kentucky after 06z Saturday.  For the
rest of the weekend, GFS builds in high pressure and keeps our area
dry and near seasonal.  ECMWF brings a surface low just southeast of
the PAH forecast area by 12z Sunday, producing widespread
precipitation mainly Saturday night into early Sunday.  Consensus is
to lean toward the ECMWF, but due to lower confidence, kept pops in
the chance to slight chance categories for now.  Colder air
infiltrating the area would keep us in a rain/snow mix across our
northern half of counties on Saturday, with a rain/snow mix across
our entire area Saturday night.  For Sunday, continued a slight
chance of a rain/snow mix only across our eastern half of
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 615 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/Low IFR cigs should take over all sites between 00z and 06z
this evening, along with MVFR vsbys in br and -shra/dz. Conditions
may improve into the MVFR category 14-17Z Tue, but would probably
be lower end 1-2K ft range.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 222037
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Complicated forecast on tap for the latter part of the short term
period with models not in the best agreement, so forecast confidence
not that good.

A storm system digging southeast across the northern plains will
push a cold front across our region tonight. In the meantime strong
warm air advection and plenty of moisture should continue to
generate rainfall across the area.

There may be a lull in precipitation chances late tonight into
Tuesday morning if we get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but
unfortunately it won`t last long. As a lobe of the parent H5 low
digs southward across the plains, it will induce a surface low/wave
on the front and bring another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances back across the region Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

The most complicated part of the forecast comes on Christmas
Eve, and as mentioned above, models not in good agreement. On
Wednesday a huge area of moisture/wrap around precipitation will be
pulled across the area with the surface/upper low couplet. In the
process, the deeper cold air will begin to filter into the region.
The timing of the arrival of the colder air and associated QPF
varies considerably between models. If the NAM12 were to pan out,
virtually everyone in our CWA would get snowed upon. If the SREF
were to verify, there would be little to no accumulation at all. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions fall somewhere in the middle, so leaned that
way til we see the whites of its eyes and/or subsequent model runs
come into better agreement.

The down side to any snow accumulation will be the antecedent
conditions where temperatures are concerned, ie the ground and
roadways are and will be fairly warm at the onset of snow. Long
story short, have light snow amounts over our far western counties
Wednesday morning, then less than an inch generally north and west
of a line from Fairfield Illinois to Van Buren Missouri Wednesday
afternoon. As the last of the moisture/wrap around QPF exits the
region Wednesday night, there could be minor snow accumulations
over the far northeast sections of our CWA during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will provide the PAH forecast
area with dry conditions and south to southwest winds Thursday into
early Friday.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs
Christmas day in the middle to upper 40s, and Friday in the upper
40s to lower 50s.  Lows Christmas night will be in the middle to
upper 30s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal.

By Friday afternoon, the forecast becomes more challenging, and gets
more confusing through the weekend.  Both GFS and ECMWF bring a weak
cold front through the region late Friday into Friday night, with
GFS the fastest with its passage.  Went with chance pops for rain
showers across the entire PAH forecast area Friday night, mixing
with snow for all but west Kentucky after 06z Saturday.  For the
rest of the weekend, GFS builds in high pressure and keeps our area
dry and near seasonal.  ECMWF brings a surface low just southeast of
the PAH forecast area by 12z Sunday, producing widespread
precipitation mainly Saturday night into early Sunday.  Consensus is
to lean toward the ECMWF, but due to lower confidence, kept pops in
the chance to slight chance categories for now.  Colder air
infiltrating the area would keep us in a rain/snow mix across our
northern half of counties on Saturday, with a rain/snow mix across
our entire area Saturday night.  For Sunday, continued a slight
chance of a rain/snow mix only across our eastern half of
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/LIFR cigs will persist at KCGI through 12z, with
KPAH/KEVV/KOWB cigs dropping to IFR/LIFR by 00z. Vsbys will be
VFR/MVFR at all sites with ongoing -shra, with brief dips to IFR
possible. After 14z, KCGI/KPAH will gradually improve to VFR, but
cigs at KEVV/KOWB will improve to MVFR at best. Gusty southeast
winds will gradually decrease and become southwest/west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 222037
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Complicated forecast on tap for the latter part of the short term
period with models not in the best agreement, so forecast confidence
not that good.

A storm system digging southeast across the northern plains will
push a cold front across our region tonight. In the meantime strong
warm air advection and plenty of moisture should continue to
generate rainfall across the area.

There may be a lull in precipitation chances late tonight into
Tuesday morning if we get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but
unfortunately it won`t last long. As a lobe of the parent H5 low
digs southward across the plains, it will induce a surface low/wave
on the front and bring another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances back across the region Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

The most complicated part of the forecast comes on Christmas
Eve, and as mentioned above, models not in good agreement. On
Wednesday a huge area of moisture/wrap around precipitation will be
pulled across the area with the surface/upper low couplet. In the
process, the deeper cold air will begin to filter into the region.
The timing of the arrival of the colder air and associated QPF
varies considerably between models. If the NAM12 were to pan out,
virtually everyone in our CWA would get snowed upon. If the SREF
were to verify, there would be little to no accumulation at all. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions fall somewhere in the middle, so leaned that
way til we see the whites of its eyes and/or subsequent model runs
come into better agreement.

The down side to any snow accumulation will be the antecedent
conditions where temperatures are concerned, ie the ground and
roadways are and will be fairly warm at the onset of snow. Long
story short, have light snow amounts over our far western counties
Wednesday morning, then less than an inch generally north and west
of a line from Fairfield Illinois to Van Buren Missouri Wednesday
afternoon. As the last of the moisture/wrap around QPF exits the
region Wednesday night, there could be minor snow accumulations
over the far northeast sections of our CWA during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

High pressure over the southeast U.S. will provide the PAH forecast
area with dry conditions and south to southwest winds Thursday into
early Friday.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs
Christmas day in the middle to upper 40s, and Friday in the upper
40s to lower 50s.  Lows Christmas night will be in the middle to
upper 30s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal.

By Friday afternoon, the forecast becomes more challenging, and gets
more confusing through the weekend.  Both GFS and ECMWF bring a weak
cold front through the region late Friday into Friday night, with
GFS the fastest with its passage.  Went with chance pops for rain
showers across the entire PAH forecast area Friday night, mixing
with snow for all but west Kentucky after 06z Saturday.  For the
rest of the weekend, GFS builds in high pressure and keeps our area
dry and near seasonal.  ECMWF brings a surface low just southeast of
the PAH forecast area by 12z Sunday, producing widespread
precipitation mainly Saturday night into early Sunday.  Consensus is
to lean toward the ECMWF, but due to lower confidence, kept pops in
the chance to slight chance categories for now.  Colder air
infiltrating the area would keep us in a rain/snow mix across our
northern half of counties on Saturday, with a rain/snow mix across
our entire area Saturday night.  For Sunday, continued a slight
chance of a rain/snow mix only across our eastern half of
counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 237 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/LIFR cigs will persist at KCGI through 12z, with
KPAH/KEVV/KOWB cigs dropping to IFR/LIFR by 00z. Vsbys will be
VFR/MVFR at all sites with ongoing -shra, with brief dips to IFR
possible. After 14z, KCGI/KPAH will gradually improve to VFR, but
cigs at KEVV/KOWB will improve to MVFR at best. Gusty southeast
winds will gradually decrease and become southwest/west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 221830
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Updated aviation section for 18z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

There is much more clarity in forecast this morning. The model
initializations apparently are latching onto the energy that will
carve out the large trough over the mid-section of the country
over the next 24-36 hours.

The 00Z models in general pivot the initial upper trough northeast
through Missouri this afternoon and evening, resulting in an area
of showers mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
today. This will also force the cold front into the region, and
there should be a nice north-south band of showers/rain over areas
east of the Mississippi River this evening. This will be pushed
eastward rather quickly, as a dry slot noses northeast through the
region. Overnight may very well be dry, and most, if not all, of
the area should be dry Tuesday, as the second upper low gets
organized over the southern Plains.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with the second
system Tuesday night and Wednesday. They push the surface low
northeast through central/eastern KY/TN late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The low-level flow in our region will transition from
southwest to north Tuesday afternoon and evening, and that should
keep any thunder threat to the southeast of the region.

They both bring the upper low north northeast across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday. The deformation zone
precipitation will be dragged slowly across most of the forecast
area. This could result in some fairly persistent banding through
the day, leading to some fairly heavy rain or snow. There is little
low-level cold air being drawn into this system, so temperatures
are expected to stay in the mid and upper 30s Wednesday. If it
changes over to snow and comes down hard enough, accumulations
could be possible. For now will be very conservative and just
throw in a few tenths right along the northwest border of the
region, where temperatures will be coldest. The banding potential
keeps this worth watching. Maybe some areas could eek out a white
Christmas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A progressive and less amplified upper-level flow pattern is
expected during the long term period. Following the departure of the
storm system on Christmas Eve, a series of relatively weak frontal
systems are forecast during the long term.

As far as the daily details...
On Wednesday night, some light rain or snow showers may linger
during the evening until the passage of the weakening 500 mb trough
axis. Partial clearing is likely later Wednesday night as mid-level
ridging builds eastward from the Plains.

Christmas Day will be dry as the 500 mb ridge axis passes overhead.
Increasing southwest low-level winds will dry out the low levels,
which should translate into plenty of sunshine.

Christmas night into Friday will be dominated by southwest flow at
the surface and aloft ahead of a frontal system over the Plains.
Temperatures should reach the 50s in most areas on Friday.

On Friday night, the cold front will move eastward into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Most of the upper-level shortwave energy will be
shunted north and west of our region. For this reason, precipitation
is expected to be sparse along the cold front. Forecast pops will
remain only in the slight chance category.

On Saturday, there may be some lingering rain or snow showers with
the cold front in the morning. However, most of the day will be dry
with temperatures struggling to reach 40.

Saturday night and Sunday, the forecast will remain dry as the model
consensus indicates high pressure will move east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. The 00z ecmwf will be discounted for the
time being, since it is the first run of any model to lift a storm
system northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley. There is little or no
evidence of such a system in the 00z gfs, its ensemble mean, or
previous runs of the ecmwf and gfs. However, the new 00z ecmwf
ensemble mos does support the high pops indicated by the operational
ecmwf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1230 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/LIFR cigs will persist at KCGI through 12z, with
KPAH/KEVV/KOWB cigs dropping to IFR/LIFR by 00z. Vsbys will be
VFR/MVFR at all sites with ongoing -shra, with brief dips to IFR
possible. After 14z, KCGI/KPAH will gradually improve to VFR, but
cigs at KEVV/KOWB will improve to MVFR at best. Gusty southeast
winds will gradually decrease and become southwest/west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 221156
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

There is much more clarity in forecast this morning. The model
initializations apparently are latching onto the energy that will
carve out the large trough over the mid-section of the country
over the next 24-36 hours.

The 00Z models in general pivot the initial upper trough northeast
through Missouri this afternoon and evening, resulting in an area
of showers mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
today. This will also force the cold front into the region, and
there should be a nice north-south band of showers/rain over areas
east of the Mississippi River this evening. This will be pushed
eastward rather quickly, as a dry slot noses northeast through the
region. Overnight may very well be dry, and most, if not all, of
the area should be dry Tuesday, as the second upper low gets
organized over the southern Plains.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with the second
system Tuesday night and Wednesday. They push the surface low
northeast through central/eastern KY/TN late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The low-level flow in our region will transition from
southwest to north Tuesday afternoon and evening, and that should
keep any thunder threat to the southeast of the region.

They both bring the upper low north northeast across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday. The deformation zone
precipitation will be dragged slowly across most of the forecast
area. This could result in some fairly persistent banding through
the day, leading to some fairly heavy rain or snow. There is little
low-level cold air being drawn into this system, so temperatures
are expected to stay in the mid and upper 30s Wednesday. If it
changes over to snow and comes down hard enough, accumulations
could be possible. For now will be very conservative and just
throw in a few tenths right along the northwest border of the
region, where temperatures will be coldest. The banding potential
keeps this worth watching. Maybe some areas could eek out a white
Christmas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A progressive and less amplified upper-level flow pattern is
expected during the long term period. Following the departure of the
storm system on Christmas Eve, a series of relatively weak frontal
systems are forecast during the long term.

As far as the daily details...
On Wednesday night, some light rain or snow showers may linger
during the evening until the passage of the weakening 500 mb trough
axis. Partial clearing is likely later Wednesday night as mid-level
ridging builds eastward from the Plains.

Christmas Day will be dry as the 500 mb ridge axis passes overhead.
Increasing southwest low-level winds will dry out the low levels,
which should translate into plenty of sunshine.

Christmas night into Friday will be dominated by southwest flow at
the surface and aloft ahead of a frontal system over the Plains.
Temperatures should reach the 50s in most areas on Friday.

On Friday night, the cold front will move eastward into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Most of the upper-level shortwave energy will be
shunted north and west of our region. For this reason, precipitation
is expected to be sparse along the cold front. Forecast pops will
remain only in the slight chance category.

On Saturday, there may be some lingering rain or snow showers with
the cold front in the morning. However, most of the day will be dry
with temperatures struggling to reach 40.

Saturday night and Sunday, the forecast will remain dry as the model
consensus indicates high pressure will move east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. The 00z ecmwf will be discounted for the
time being, since it is the first run of any model to lift a storm
system northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley. There is little or no
evidence of such a system in the 00z gfs, its ensemble mean, or
previous runs of the ecmwf and gfs. However, the new 00z ecmwf
ensemble mos does support the high pops indicated by the operational
ecmwf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Deteriorating conditions are expected today, as an upper-level
storm system swings by just northwest of the area. Scattered
light showers this morning will become more numerous and heavier
from west to east this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are
currently developing across the region, and they should lower to
IFR or LIFR levels this afternoon. Southeast winds will also be on
the increase, and some gusts into the upper teens and lower 20 kts
will be possible. The winds will veer to southwest tonight, and
skies may try to scatter out in the west, but that is unlikely in
the east. Definitely played the forecast pessimistically tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 221156
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

There is much more clarity in forecast this morning. The model
initializations apparently are latching onto the energy that will
carve out the large trough over the mid-section of the country
over the next 24-36 hours.

The 00Z models in general pivot the initial upper trough northeast
through Missouri this afternoon and evening, resulting in an area
of showers mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
today. This will also force the cold front into the region, and
there should be a nice north-south band of showers/rain over areas
east of the Mississippi River this evening. This will be pushed
eastward rather quickly, as a dry slot noses northeast through the
region. Overnight may very well be dry, and most, if not all, of
the area should be dry Tuesday, as the second upper low gets
organized over the southern Plains.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with the second
system Tuesday night and Wednesday. They push the surface low
northeast through central/eastern KY/TN late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The low-level flow in our region will transition from
southwest to north Tuesday afternoon and evening, and that should
keep any thunder threat to the southeast of the region.

They both bring the upper low north northeast across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday. The deformation zone
precipitation will be dragged slowly across most of the forecast
area. This could result in some fairly persistent banding through
the day, leading to some fairly heavy rain or snow. There is little
low-level cold air being drawn into this system, so temperatures
are expected to stay in the mid and upper 30s Wednesday. If it
changes over to snow and comes down hard enough, accumulations
could be possible. For now will be very conservative and just
throw in a few tenths right along the northwest border of the
region, where temperatures will be coldest. The banding potential
keeps this worth watching. Maybe some areas could eek out a white
Christmas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A progressive and less amplified upper-level flow pattern is
expected during the long term period. Following the departure of the
storm system on Christmas Eve, a series of relatively weak frontal
systems are forecast during the long term.

As far as the daily details...
On Wednesday night, some light rain or snow showers may linger
during the evening until the passage of the weakening 500 mb trough
axis. Partial clearing is likely later Wednesday night as mid-level
ridging builds eastward from the Plains.

Christmas Day will be dry as the 500 mb ridge axis passes overhead.
Increasing southwest low-level winds will dry out the low levels,
which should translate into plenty of sunshine.

Christmas night into Friday will be dominated by southwest flow at
the surface and aloft ahead of a frontal system over the Plains.
Temperatures should reach the 50s in most areas on Friday.

On Friday night, the cold front will move eastward into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Most of the upper-level shortwave energy will be
shunted north and west of our region. For this reason, precipitation
is expected to be sparse along the cold front. Forecast pops will
remain only in the slight chance category.

On Saturday, there may be some lingering rain or snow showers with
the cold front in the morning. However, most of the day will be dry
with temperatures struggling to reach 40.

Saturday night and Sunday, the forecast will remain dry as the model
consensus indicates high pressure will move east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. The 00z ecmwf will be discounted for the
time being, since it is the first run of any model to lift a storm
system northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley. There is little or no
evidence of such a system in the 00z gfs, its ensemble mean, or
previous runs of the ecmwf and gfs. However, the new 00z ecmwf
ensemble mos does support the high pops indicated by the operational
ecmwf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Deteriorating conditions are expected today, as an upper-level
storm system swings by just northwest of the area. Scattered
light showers this morning will become more numerous and heavier
from west to east this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are
currently developing across the region, and they should lower to
IFR or LIFR levels this afternoon. Southeast winds will also be on
the increase, and some gusts into the upper teens and lower 20 kts
will be possible. The winds will veer to southwest tonight, and
skies may try to scatter out in the west, but that is unlikely in
the east. Definitely played the forecast pessimistically tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 220952
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
352 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

There is much more clarity in forecast this morning. The model
initializations apparently are latching onto the energy that will
carve out the large trough over the mid-section of the country
over the next 24-36 hours.

The 00Z models in general pivot the initial upper trough northeast
through Missouri this afternoon and evening, resulting in an area
of showers mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
today. This will also force the cold front into the region, and
there should be a nice north-south band of showers/rain over areas
east of the Mississippi River this evening. This will be pushed
eastward rather quickly, as a dry slot noses northeast through the
region. Overnight may very well be dry, and most, if not all, of
the area should be dry Tuesday, as the second upper low gets
organized over the southern Plains.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with the second
system Tuesday night and Wednesday. They push the surface low
northeast through central/eastern KY/TN late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The low-level flow in our region will transition from
southwest to north Tuesday afternoon and evening, and that should
keep any thunder threat to the southeast of the region.

They both bring the upper low north northeast across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday. The deformation zone
precipitation will be dragged slowly across most of the forecast
area. This could result in some fairly persistent banding through
the day, leading to some fairly heavy rain or snow. There is little
low-level cold air being drawn into this system, so temperatures
are expected to stay in the mid and upper 30s Wednesday. If it
changes over to snow and comes down hard enough, accumulations
could be possible. For now will be very conservative and just
throw in a few tenths right along the northwest border of the
region, where temperatures will be coldest. The banding potential
keeps this worth watching. Maybe some areas could eek out a white
Christmas.

LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A progressive and less amplified upper-level flow pattern is
expected during the long term period. Following the departure of the
storm system on Christmas Eve, a series of relatively weak frontal
systems are forecast during the long term.

As far as the daily details...
On Wednesday night, some light rain or snow showers may linger
during the evening until the passage of the weakening 500 mb trough
axis. Partial clearing is likely later Wednesday night as mid-level
ridging builds eastward from the Plains.

Christmas Day will be dry as the 500 mb ridge axis passes overhead.
Increasing southwest low-level winds will dry out the low levels,
which should translate into plenty of sunshine.

Christmas night into Friday will be dominated by southwest flow at
the surface and aloft ahead of a frontal system over the Plains.
Temperatures should reach the 50s in most areas on Friday.

On Friday night, the cold front will move eastward into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Most of the upper-level shortwave energy will be
shunted north and west of our region. For this reason, precipitation
is expected to be sparse along the cold front. Forecast pops will
remain only in the slight chance category.

On Saturday, there may be some lingering rain or snow showers with
the cold front in the morning. However, most of the day will be dry
with temperatures struggling to reach 40.

Saturday night and Sunday, the forecast will remain dry as the model
consensus indicates high pressure will move east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. The 00z ecmwf will be discounted for the
time being, since it is the first run of any model to lift a storm
system northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley. There is little or no
evidence of such a system in the 00z gfs, its ensemble mean, or
previous runs of the ecmwf and gfs. However, the new 00z ecmwf
ensemble mos does support the high pops indicated by the operational
ecmwf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Was too pessimistic with the onset of MVFR/IFR ceilings with the
00z Monday TAF issuance. Significantly slowed the onset of lower
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR. Adjusted the 06z Monday TAF
issuance to reflect this change.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 220952
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
352 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

There is much more clarity in forecast this morning. The model
initializations apparently are latching onto the energy that will
carve out the large trough over the mid-section of the country
over the next 24-36 hours.

The 00Z models in general pivot the initial upper trough northeast
through Missouri this afternoon and evening, resulting in an area
of showers mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
today. This will also force the cold front into the region, and
there should be a nice north-south band of showers/rain over areas
east of the Mississippi River this evening. This will be pushed
eastward rather quickly, as a dry slot noses northeast through the
region. Overnight may very well be dry, and most, if not all, of
the area should be dry Tuesday, as the second upper low gets
organized over the southern Plains.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with the second
system Tuesday night and Wednesday. They push the surface low
northeast through central/eastern KY/TN late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The low-level flow in our region will transition from
southwest to north Tuesday afternoon and evening, and that should
keep any thunder threat to the southeast of the region.

They both bring the upper low north northeast across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday. The deformation zone
precipitation will be dragged slowly across most of the forecast
area. This could result in some fairly persistent banding through
the day, leading to some fairly heavy rain or snow. There is little
low-level cold air being drawn into this system, so temperatures
are expected to stay in the mid and upper 30s Wednesday. If it
changes over to snow and comes down hard enough, accumulations
could be possible. For now will be very conservative and just
throw in a few tenths right along the northwest border of the
region, where temperatures will be coldest. The banding potential
keeps this worth watching. Maybe some areas could eek out a white
Christmas.

LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A progressive and less amplified upper-level flow pattern is
expected during the long term period. Following the departure of the
storm system on Christmas Eve, a series of relatively weak frontal
systems are forecast during the long term.

As far as the daily details...
On Wednesday night, some light rain or snow showers may linger
during the evening until the passage of the weakening 500 mb trough
axis. Partial clearing is likely later Wednesday night as mid-level
ridging builds eastward from the Plains.

Christmas Day will be dry as the 500 mb ridge axis passes overhead.
Increasing southwest low-level winds will dry out the low levels,
which should translate into plenty of sunshine.

Christmas night into Friday will be dominated by southwest flow at
the surface and aloft ahead of a frontal system over the Plains.
Temperatures should reach the 50s in most areas on Friday.

On Friday night, the cold front will move eastward into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Most of the upper-level shortwave energy will be
shunted north and west of our region. For this reason, precipitation
is expected to be sparse along the cold front. Forecast pops will
remain only in the slight chance category.

On Saturday, there may be some lingering rain or snow showers with
the cold front in the morning. However, most of the day will be dry
with temperatures struggling to reach 40.

Saturday night and Sunday, the forecast will remain dry as the model
consensus indicates high pressure will move east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. The 00z ecmwf will be discounted for the
time being, since it is the first run of any model to lift a storm
system northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley. There is little or no
evidence of such a system in the 00z gfs, its ensemble mean, or
previous runs of the ecmwf and gfs. However, the new 00z ecmwf
ensemble mos does support the high pops indicated by the operational
ecmwf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Was too pessimistic with the onset of MVFR/IFR ceilings with the
00z Monday TAF issuance. Significantly slowed the onset of lower
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR. Adjusted the 06z Monday TAF
issuance to reflect this change.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 220544
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Forecast confidence relatively good through the first half of the
short term period, then drops off somewhat toward the end due to
model timing and track differences.

A storm system developing over the northern plains will push a cold
front toward our region on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of this
system will bring a surge of deep moisture across the region
tonight. This combined with a weak short wave moving across the area
may produce enough lift to generate small precipitation chances over
our far western counties late tonight.

As the front draws ever closer on Monday, precipitation chances will
increase from west to east across the entire area. Monday night into
Tuesday morning models show a lobe of the parent H5 low
developing/digging a trough southward across the plains. This will
enhance upper support and combined with the passage of the front,
precipitation chances will increase significantly. By late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, there may be enough surface based and
elevated instability to warrant the mention of thunder over the far
southeast sections of the CWA.

There may be a lull Tuesday afternoon in precipitation chances if we
get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but not confident enough
to reduce those POP grids at this time. For the same reason as in
the above paragraph, mentioned thunder chances over the eastern and
southeastern sections of the CWA all day Tuesday.

Tuesday night with the deepening and northeast track of the
aforementioned H5 trough, models are inducing a surface low/wave on
the front and bringing another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances across the region. However, models not in good
agreement on how this will play out at this time. The GFS is clearly
the most aggressive with the development of this feature and the QPF
it generates over our area. The NAM12 and SREF not that excited
about it at all and keep almost all precipitation chances over the
southeast sections. Models still showing a sliver of instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Tuesday
evening, so have a mention of thunder there.

Thanks to surrounding offices for forecast coordination.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Medium confidence in extended forecast.
The ECMWF has much better run to run continuity and the most best
continuity among other models ensembles. The GFS has the greatest
run to run variability and would be most likely the odd one out.

At the start of the extended or Christmas Eve...a broad upper level
wave exiting the plains and moving toward the Mississippi Valley.
Models are good general agreement with this feature. They do differ
a great deal with the placement and movement of a developing surface
low along the front over KY while the parent low moves through LM.
Most of the operational models and ensembles bring the surface low
up through eastern KY. The GFS however is slightly more west of the
aforementioned models and tracks the surface low through central KY.
Regardless of which solution they all agree that surface temps will
be too warm for much of wintry weather. However forecast sounding
and Bufkit suggest a possible mix as the moisture exits the area.
Considering this out to day 4 dont want to box myself in or create a
possible flip flop in the forecast will probably go with a chance of
a mix in case moisture lingers longer or the cold air arrives faster.
The colder air is not here at least until the afternoon so will hold
off any chance of a mix until then.

The nest system arrives Friday with a vertically stacked low moving
through the great lakes region with a cold front extending southward
through the forecast area into the gulf by 18z Friday. This system
will be moisture starved and warm for this time of year. Yet once
again we could rain mix or changeover to snow before ending Friday
night. Once again little impact expected with this system.

As for temps went mostly above normal through the period and there
was slight increase on a few days from previous run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Was too pessimistic with the onset of MVFR/IFR ceilings with the
00z Monday TAF issuance. Significantly slowed the onset of lower
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR. Adjusted the 06z Monday TAF
issuance to reflect this change.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 220544
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Forecast confidence relatively good through the first half of the
short term period, then drops off somewhat toward the end due to
model timing and track differences.

A storm system developing over the northern plains will push a cold
front toward our region on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of this
system will bring a surge of deep moisture across the region
tonight. This combined with a weak short wave moving across the area
may produce enough lift to generate small precipitation chances over
our far western counties late tonight.

As the front draws ever closer on Monday, precipitation chances will
increase from west to east across the entire area. Monday night into
Tuesday morning models show a lobe of the parent H5 low
developing/digging a trough southward across the plains. This will
enhance upper support and combined with the passage of the front,
precipitation chances will increase significantly. By late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, there may be enough surface based and
elevated instability to warrant the mention of thunder over the far
southeast sections of the CWA.

There may be a lull Tuesday afternoon in precipitation chances if we
get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but not confident enough
to reduce those POP grids at this time. For the same reason as in
the above paragraph, mentioned thunder chances over the eastern and
southeastern sections of the CWA all day Tuesday.

Tuesday night with the deepening and northeast track of the
aforementioned H5 trough, models are inducing a surface low/wave on
the front and bringing another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances across the region. However, models not in good
agreement on how this will play out at this time. The GFS is clearly
the most aggressive with the development of this feature and the QPF
it generates over our area. The NAM12 and SREF not that excited
about it at all and keep almost all precipitation chances over the
southeast sections. Models still showing a sliver of instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Tuesday
evening, so have a mention of thunder there.

Thanks to surrounding offices for forecast coordination.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Medium confidence in extended forecast.
The ECMWF has much better run to run continuity and the most best
continuity among other models ensembles. The GFS has the greatest
run to run variability and would be most likely the odd one out.

At the start of the extended or Christmas Eve...a broad upper level
wave exiting the plains and moving toward the Mississippi Valley.
Models are good general agreement with this feature. They do differ
a great deal with the placement and movement of a developing surface
low along the front over KY while the parent low moves through LM.
Most of the operational models and ensembles bring the surface low
up through eastern KY. The GFS however is slightly more west of the
aforementioned models and tracks the surface low through central KY.
Regardless of which solution they all agree that surface temps will
be too warm for much of wintry weather. However forecast sounding
and Bufkit suggest a possible mix as the moisture exits the area.
Considering this out to day 4 dont want to box myself in or create a
possible flip flop in the forecast will probably go with a chance of
a mix in case moisture lingers longer or the cold air arrives faster.
The colder air is not here at least until the afternoon so will hold
off any chance of a mix until then.

The nest system arrives Friday with a vertically stacked low moving
through the great lakes region with a cold front extending southward
through the forecast area into the gulf by 18z Friday. This system
will be moisture starved and warm for this time of year. Yet once
again we could rain mix or changeover to snow before ending Friday
night. Once again little impact expected with this system.

As for temps went mostly above normal through the period and there
was slight increase on a few days from previous run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Was too pessimistic with the onset of MVFR/IFR ceilings with the
00z Monday TAF issuance. Significantly slowed the onset of lower
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR. Adjusted the 06z Monday TAF
issuance to reflect this change.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 212354
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
554 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Forecast confidence relatively good through the first half of the
short term period, then drops off somewhat toward the end due to
model timing and track differences.

A storm system developing over the northern plains will push a cold
front toward our region on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of this
system will bring a surge of deep moisture across the region
tonight. This combined with a weak short wave moving across the area
may produce enough lift to generate small precipitation chances over
our far western counties late tonight.

As the front draws ever closer on Monday, precipitation chances will
increase from west to east across the entire area. Monday night into
Tuesday morning models show a lobe of the parent H5 low
developing/digging a trough southward across the plains. This will
enhance upper support and combined with the passage of the front,
precipitation chances will increase significantly. By late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, there may be enough surface based and
elevated instability to warrant the mention of thunder over the far
southeast sections of the CWA.

There may be a lull Tuesday afternoon in precipitation chances if we
get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but not confident enough
to reduce those POP grids at this time. For the same reason as in
the above paragraph, mentioned thunder chances over the eastern and
southeastern sections of the CWA all day Tuesday.

Tuesday night with the deepening and northeast track of the
aforementioned H5 trough, models are inducing a surface low/wave on
the front and bringing another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances across the region. However, models not in good
agreement on how this will play out at this time. The GFS is clearly
the most aggressive with the development of this feature and the QPF
it generates over our area. The NAM12 and SREF not that excited
about it at all and keep almost all precipitation chances over the
southeast sections. Models still showing a sliver of instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Tuesday
evening, so have a mention of thunder there.

Thanks to surrounding offices for forecast coordination.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Medium confidence in extended forecast.
The ECMWF has much better run to run continuity and the most best
continuity among other models ensembles. The GFS has the greatest
run to run variability and would be most likely the odd one out.

At the start of the extended or Christmas Eve...a broad upper level
wave exiting the plains and moving toward the Mississippi Valley.
Models are good general agreement with this feature. They do differ
a great deal with the placement and movement of a developing surface
low along the front over KY while the parent low moves through LM.
Most of the operational models and ensembles bring the surface low
up through eastern KY. The GFS however is slightly more west of the
aforementioned models and tracks the surface low through central KY.
Regardless of which solution they all agree that surface temps will
be too warm for much of wintry weather. However forecast sounding
and Bufkit suggest a possible mix as the moisture exits the area.
Considering this out to day 4 dont want to box myself in or create a
possible flip flop in the forecast will probably go with a chance of
a mix in case moisture lingers longer or the cold air arrives faster.
The colder air is not here at least until the afternoon so will hold
off any chance of a mix until then.

The nest system arrives Friday with a vertically stacked low moving
through the great lakes region with a cold front extending southward
through the forecast area into the gulf by 18z Friday. This system
will be moisture starved and warm for this time of year. Yet once
again we could rain mix or changeover to snow before ending Friday
night. Once again little impact expected with this system.

As for temps went mostly above normal through the period and there
was slight increase on a few days from previous run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 553 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

With the inital wave from the upper low moves into the area,
ceilings will become widespread VFR across the WFO PAH TAF sites
from 04z-06z...with a sharp transition to MVFR mainly after 09-10z
Monday. as the system sharpends over the area. IFR ceilings and
visibilities will be most common near a KCGI-KEVV line from 12z-
21z on Monday with an implied surface boundary near these TAF locations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 212354
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
554 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Forecast confidence relatively good through the first half of the
short term period, then drops off somewhat toward the end due to
model timing and track differences.

A storm system developing over the northern plains will push a cold
front toward our region on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of this
system will bring a surge of deep moisture across the region
tonight. This combined with a weak short wave moving across the area
may produce enough lift to generate small precipitation chances over
our far western counties late tonight.

As the front draws ever closer on Monday, precipitation chances will
increase from west to east across the entire area. Monday night into
Tuesday morning models show a lobe of the parent H5 low
developing/digging a trough southward across the plains. This will
enhance upper support and combined with the passage of the front,
precipitation chances will increase significantly. By late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, there may be enough surface based and
elevated instability to warrant the mention of thunder over the far
southeast sections of the CWA.

There may be a lull Tuesday afternoon in precipitation chances if we
get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but not confident enough
to reduce those POP grids at this time. For the same reason as in
the above paragraph, mentioned thunder chances over the eastern and
southeastern sections of the CWA all day Tuesday.

Tuesday night with the deepening and northeast track of the
aforementioned H5 trough, models are inducing a surface low/wave on
the front and bringing another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances across the region. However, models not in good
agreement on how this will play out at this time. The GFS is clearly
the most aggressive with the development of this feature and the QPF
it generates over our area. The NAM12 and SREF not that excited
about it at all and keep almost all precipitation chances over the
southeast sections. Models still showing a sliver of instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Tuesday
evening, so have a mention of thunder there.

Thanks to surrounding offices for forecast coordination.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Medium confidence in extended forecast.
The ECMWF has much better run to run continuity and the most best
continuity among other models ensembles. The GFS has the greatest
run to run variability and would be most likely the odd one out.

At the start of the extended or Christmas Eve...a broad upper level
wave exiting the plains and moving toward the Mississippi Valley.
Models are good general agreement with this feature. They do differ
a great deal with the placement and movement of a developing surface
low along the front over KY while the parent low moves through LM.
Most of the operational models and ensembles bring the surface low
up through eastern KY. The GFS however is slightly more west of the
aforementioned models and tracks the surface low through central KY.
Regardless of which solution they all agree that surface temps will
be too warm for much of wintry weather. However forecast sounding
and Bufkit suggest a possible mix as the moisture exits the area.
Considering this out to day 4 dont want to box myself in or create a
possible flip flop in the forecast will probably go with a chance of
a mix in case moisture lingers longer or the cold air arrives faster.
The colder air is not here at least until the afternoon so will hold
off any chance of a mix until then.

The nest system arrives Friday with a vertically stacked low moving
through the great lakes region with a cold front extending southward
through the forecast area into the gulf by 18z Friday. This system
will be moisture starved and warm for this time of year. Yet once
again we could rain mix or changeover to snow before ending Friday
night. Once again little impact expected with this system.

As for temps went mostly above normal through the period and there
was slight increase on a few days from previous run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 553 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

With the inital wave from the upper low moves into the area,
ceilings will become widespread VFR across the WFO PAH TAF sites
from 04z-06z...with a sharp transition to MVFR mainly after 09-10z
Monday. as the system sharpends over the area. IFR ceilings and
visibilities will be most common near a KCGI-KEVV line from 12z-
21z on Monday with an implied surface boundary near these TAF locations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 212354
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
554 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Forecast confidence relatively good through the first half of the
short term period, then drops off somewhat toward the end due to
model timing and track differences.

A storm system developing over the northern plains will push a cold
front toward our region on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of this
system will bring a surge of deep moisture across the region
tonight. This combined with a weak short wave moving across the area
may produce enough lift to generate small precipitation chances over
our far western counties late tonight.

As the front draws ever closer on Monday, precipitation chances will
increase from west to east across the entire area. Monday night into
Tuesday morning models show a lobe of the parent H5 low
developing/digging a trough southward across the plains. This will
enhance upper support and combined with the passage of the front,
precipitation chances will increase significantly. By late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, there may be enough surface based and
elevated instability to warrant the mention of thunder over the far
southeast sections of the CWA.

There may be a lull Tuesday afternoon in precipitation chances if we
get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but not confident enough
to reduce those POP grids at this time. For the same reason as in
the above paragraph, mentioned thunder chances over the eastern and
southeastern sections of the CWA all day Tuesday.

Tuesday night with the deepening and northeast track of the
aforementioned H5 trough, models are inducing a surface low/wave on
the front and bringing another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances across the region. However, models not in good
agreement on how this will play out at this time. The GFS is clearly
the most aggressive with the development of this feature and the QPF
it generates over our area. The NAM12 and SREF not that excited
about it at all and keep almost all precipitation chances over the
southeast sections. Models still showing a sliver of instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Tuesday
evening, so have a mention of thunder there.

Thanks to surrounding offices for forecast coordination.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Medium confidence in extended forecast.
The ECMWF has much better run to run continuity and the most best
continuity among other models ensembles. The GFS has the greatest
run to run variability and would be most likely the odd one out.

At the start of the extended or Christmas Eve...a broad upper level
wave exiting the plains and moving toward the Mississippi Valley.
Models are good general agreement with this feature. They do differ
a great deal with the placement and movement of a developing surface
low along the front over KY while the parent low moves through LM.
Most of the operational models and ensembles bring the surface low
up through eastern KY. The GFS however is slightly more west of the
aforementioned models and tracks the surface low through central KY.
Regardless of which solution they all agree that surface temps will
be too warm for much of wintry weather. However forecast sounding
and Bufkit suggest a possible mix as the moisture exits the area.
Considering this out to day 4 dont want to box myself in or create a
possible flip flop in the forecast will probably go with a chance of
a mix in case moisture lingers longer or the cold air arrives faster.
The colder air is not here at least until the afternoon so will hold
off any chance of a mix until then.

The nest system arrives Friday with a vertically stacked low moving
through the great lakes region with a cold front extending southward
through the forecast area into the gulf by 18z Friday. This system
will be moisture starved and warm for this time of year. Yet once
again we could rain mix or changeover to snow before ending Friday
night. Once again little impact expected with this system.

As for temps went mostly above normal through the period and there
was slight increase on a few days from previous run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 553 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

With the inital wave from the upper low moves into the area,
ceilings will become widespread VFR across the WFO PAH TAF sites
from 04z-06z...with a sharp transition to MVFR mainly after 09-10z
Monday. as the system sharpends over the area. IFR ceilings and
visibilities will be most common near a KCGI-KEVV line from 12z-
21z on Monday with an implied surface boundary near these TAF locations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 212028
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
228 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Forecast confidence relatively good through the first half of the
short term period, then drops off somewhat toward the end due to
model timing and track differences.

A storm system developing over the northern plains will push a cold
front toward our region on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of this
system will bring a surge of deep moisture across the region
tonight. This combined with a weak short wave moving across the area
may produce enough lift to generate small precipitation chances over
our far western counties late tonight.

As the front draws ever closer on Monday, precipitation chances will
increase from west to east across the entire area. Monday night into
Tuesday morning models show a lobe of the parent H5 low
developing/digging a trough southward across the plains. This will
enhance upper support and combined with the passage of the front,
precipitation chances will increase significantly. By late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, there may be enough surface based and
elevated instability to warrant the mention of thunder over the far
southeast sections of the CWA.

There may be a lull Tuesday afternoon in precipitation chances if we
get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but not confident enough
to reduce those POP grids at this time. For the same reason as in
the above paragraph, mentioned thunder chances over the eastern and
southeastern sections of the CWA all day Tuesday.

Tuesday night with the deepening and northeast track of the
aforementioned H5 trough, models are inducing a surface low/wave on
the front and bringing another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances across the region. However, models not in good
agreement on how this will play out at this time. The GFS is clearly
the most aggressive with the development of this feature and the QPF
it generates over our area. The NAM12 and SREF not that excited
about it at all and keep almost all precipitation chances over the
southeast sections. Models still showing a sliver of instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Tuesday
evening, so have a mention of thunder there.

Thanks to surrounding offices for forecast coordination.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Medium confidence in extended forecast.
The ECMWF has much better run to run continuity and the most best
continuity among other models ensembles. The GFS has the greatest
run to run variability and would be most likely the odd one out.

At the start of the extended or Christmas Eve...a broad upper level
wave exiting the plains and moving toward the Mississippi Valley.
Models are good general agreement with this feature. They do differ
a great deal with the placement and movement of a developing surface
low along the front over KY while the parent low moves through LM.
Most of the operational models and ensembles bring the surface low
up through eastern KY. The GFS however is slightly more west of the
aforementioned models and tracks the surface low through central KY.
Regardless of which solution they all agree that surface temps will
be too warm for much of wintry weather. However forecast sounding
and Bufkit suggest a possible mix as the moisture exits the area.
Considering this out to day 4 dont want to box myself in or create a
possible flip flop in the forecast will probably go with a chance of
a mix in case moisture lingers longer or the cold air arrives faster.
The colder air is not here at least until the afternoon so will hold
off any chance of a mix until then.

The nest system arrives Friday with a vertically stacked low moving
through the great lakes region with a cold front extending southward
through the forecast area into the gulf by 18z Friday. This system
will be moisture starved and warm for this time of year. Yet once
again we could rain mix or changeover to snow before ending Friday
night. Once again little impact expected with this system.

As for temps went mostly above normal through the period and there
was slight increase on a few days from previous run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR cigs at KCGI should lift to the north by 00-01Z, otherwise
as a system moves out of the plains, generally speaking,
cigs/vsbys will deteriorate with time from west to east through
the rest of the period. MVFR cigs/vsbys and -RA expected to make
it into KCGI/KPAH around 08-09Z and into KEVV/KOWB around 10-11Z.
IFR cigs and/or vsbys possible at KCGI/KPAH toward the end of the
period. Variable winds AOB 5 knots through the first half of the
period will gradually increase out of the southeast AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH








000
FXUS63 KPAH 212028
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
228 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Forecast confidence relatively good through the first half of the
short term period, then drops off somewhat toward the end due to
model timing and track differences.

A storm system developing over the northern plains will push a cold
front toward our region on Monday. Southerly flow ahead of this
system will bring a surge of deep moisture across the region
tonight. This combined with a weak short wave moving across the area
may produce enough lift to generate small precipitation chances over
our far western counties late tonight.

As the front draws ever closer on Monday, precipitation chances will
increase from west to east across the entire area. Monday night into
Tuesday morning models show a lobe of the parent H5 low
developing/digging a trough southward across the plains. This will
enhance upper support and combined with the passage of the front,
precipitation chances will increase significantly. By late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning, there may be enough surface based and
elevated instability to warrant the mention of thunder over the far
southeast sections of the CWA.

There may be a lull Tuesday afternoon in precipitation chances if we
get dry slotted in the wake of the front, but not confident enough
to reduce those POP grids at this time. For the same reason as in
the above paragraph, mentioned thunder chances over the eastern and
southeastern sections of the CWA all day Tuesday.

Tuesday night with the deepening and northeast track of the
aforementioned H5 trough, models are inducing a surface low/wave on
the front and bringing another surge of moisture and elevated
precipitation chances across the region. However, models not in good
agreement on how this will play out at this time. The GFS is clearly
the most aggressive with the development of this feature and the QPF
it generates over our area. The NAM12 and SREF not that excited
about it at all and keep almost all precipitation chances over the
southeast sections. Models still showing a sliver of instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Tuesday
evening, so have a mention of thunder there.

Thanks to surrounding offices for forecast coordination.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Medium confidence in extended forecast.
The ECMWF has much better run to run continuity and the most best
continuity among other models ensembles. The GFS has the greatest
run to run variability and would be most likely the odd one out.

At the start of the extended or Christmas Eve...a broad upper level
wave exiting the plains and moving toward the Mississippi Valley.
Models are good general agreement with this feature. They do differ
a great deal with the placement and movement of a developing surface
low along the front over KY while the parent low moves through LM.
Most of the operational models and ensembles bring the surface low
up through eastern KY. The GFS however is slightly more west of the
aforementioned models and tracks the surface low through central KY.
Regardless of which solution they all agree that surface temps will
be too warm for much of wintry weather. However forecast sounding
and Bufkit suggest a possible mix as the moisture exits the area.
Considering this out to day 4 dont want to box myself in or create a
possible flip flop in the forecast will probably go with a chance of
a mix in case moisture lingers longer or the cold air arrives faster.
The colder air is not here at least until the afternoon so will hold
off any chance of a mix until then.

The nest system arrives Friday with a vertically stacked low moving
through the great lakes region with a cold front extending southward
through the forecast area into the gulf by 18z Friday. This system
will be moisture starved and warm for this time of year. Yet once
again we could rain mix or changeover to snow before ending Friday
night. Once again little impact expected with this system.

As for temps went mostly above normal through the period and there
was slight increase on a few days from previous run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 228 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR cigs at KCGI should lift to the north by 00-01Z, otherwise
as a system moves out of the plains, generally speaking,
cigs/vsbys will deteriorate with time from west to east through
the rest of the period. MVFR cigs/vsbys and -RA expected to make
it into KCGI/KPAH around 08-09Z and into KEVV/KOWB around 10-11Z.
IFR cigs and/or vsbys possible at KCGI/KPAH toward the end of the
period. Variable winds AOB 5 knots through the first half of the
period will gradually increase out of the southeast AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH









000
FXUS63 KPAH 211737 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR cigs at KCGI should lift to the north by 00-01Z, otherwise
as a system moves out of the plains, generally speaking,
cigs/vsbys will deteriorate with time from west to east through
the rest of the period. MVFR cigs/vsbys and -RA expected to make
it into KCGI/KPAH around 08-09Z and into KEVV/KOWB around 10-11Z.
IFR cigs and/or vsbys possible at KCGI/KPAH toward the end of the
period. Variable winds AOB 5 knots through the first half of the
period will gradually increase out of the southeast AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 211737 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR cigs at KCGI should lift to the north by 00-01Z, otherwise
as a system moves out of the plains, generally speaking,
cigs/vsbys will deteriorate with time from west to east through
the rest of the period. MVFR cigs/vsbys and -RA expected to make
it into KCGI/KPAH around 08-09Z and into KEVV/KOWB around 10-11Z.
IFR cigs and/or vsbys possible at KCGI/KPAH toward the end of the
period. Variable winds AOB 5 knots through the first half of the
period will gradually increase out of the southeast AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 211157
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR or lower VFR clouds have just oozed to the west of KCGI in
the last few hours, but other clouds have formed just to their
east. They may continue to play tag with KCGI through the day,
definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance for this
forecast. It appears that clearing will occur near sunset, but
there should be enough wind to keep KCGI from tanking the
visibility. Elsewhere, some MVFR fog will dissipate by 14Z or
15z, and VFR conditions will prevail through the day and much of
tonight.

Guidance is strongly hinting that more lower MVFR clouds will spread
west or northwest across all sites in the last few hours of the
forecast. MVFR clouds can be seen on satellite imagery already
working northwest across northern Alabama, so went for it.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 211157
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR or lower VFR clouds have just oozed to the west of KCGI in
the last few hours, but other clouds have formed just to their
east. They may continue to play tag with KCGI through the day,
definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance for this
forecast. It appears that clearing will occur near sunset, but
there should be enough wind to keep KCGI from tanking the
visibility. Elsewhere, some MVFR fog will dissipate by 14Z or
15z, and VFR conditions will prevail through the day and much of
tonight.

Guidance is strongly hinting that more lower MVFR clouds will spread
west or northwest across all sites in the last few hours of the
forecast. MVFR clouds can be seen on satellite imagery already
working northwest across northern Alabama, so went for it.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 211157
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR or lower VFR clouds have just oozed to the west of KCGI in
the last few hours, but other clouds have formed just to their
east. They may continue to play tag with KCGI through the day,
definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance for this
forecast. It appears that clearing will occur near sunset, but
there should be enough wind to keep KCGI from tanking the
visibility. Elsewhere, some MVFR fog will dissipate by 14Z or
15z, and VFR conditions will prevail through the day and much of
tonight.

Guidance is strongly hinting that more lower MVFR clouds will spread
west or northwest across all sites in the last few hours of the
forecast. MVFR clouds can be seen on satellite imagery already
working northwest across northern Alabama, so went for it.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 211157
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR or lower VFR clouds have just oozed to the west of KCGI in
the last few hours, but other clouds have formed just to their
east. They may continue to play tag with KCGI through the day,
definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance for this
forecast. It appears that clearing will occur near sunset, but
there should be enough wind to keep KCGI from tanking the
visibility. Elsewhere, some MVFR fog will dissipate by 14Z or
15z, and VFR conditions will prevail through the day and much of
tonight.

Guidance is strongly hinting that more lower MVFR clouds will spread
west or northwest across all sites in the last few hours of the
forecast. MVFR clouds can be seen on satellite imagery already
working northwest across northern Alabama, so went for it.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 210932
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 210932
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Strong jet energy coming into the Pacific Northwest early this
morning will quickly form a occluded storm system over the
northern Plains and upper Midwest by 12Z Monday. This system will
then wobble eastward while more energy drops southward along the
Rockies through Monday night. This energy will bottom out along
the Rio Grande in Texas, carving out an intense full latitude
trough by 00Z Wednesday.

While the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and NAM all show this same evolution
there are differences in the finer details. With multiple systems
within the larger-scale trough, it is unrealistic to expect the
models to be locked in at this point. Interactions between the 2
systems will have a significant impact on the cold frontal
movement, which will be the focus for best PoPs in our region.

With the original occluded system, the cold front will be ill-
defined, and really not much of a factor through Monday night. It
should sharpen up, as low pressure rides northeast toward the area
Tuesday, once the secondary jet energy bottoms out. We should have
general warm, moist advection in the low-levels beginning late
tonight and continuing until the cold front moves through the
region presumably sometime Tuesday.

It looks like light rain or drizzle with a saturated near surface
layer will be the primary precipitation mode Monday and Monday
night. Chance PoPs on Monday may be more realistic for Monday
night, too, compared to the likelies that are forecast. With the
delayed frontal passage, there will be more time for moisture to
increase across the area, so increased PoPs to categorical levels
in the east Tuesday.

The 00Z NAM actually develops an environment supportive of QLCS-type
tornadic activity, according to a local research project, mainly
over west Kentucky very late Monday night and into Tuesday.
Precipitable water values around 1.25" are near the 99th
percentile with respect to climatology, and 0-1km and 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40kts and 65kts, respectively, would be
supportive, if elevated instability can develop. The 00Z NAM did
have 200-300J/kg of MUCAPE which could be enough given the shear.

This is one run of one model, and others are not as moist or
unstable, so there is no need to get too excited at this time. We
just need be conscious of the possibilities, as it approaches. For
now will add thunder to the eastern third of the area Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The primary feature of interest in the long term period is still the
storm system that will exit our region on Christmas Eve. While all
models agree that colder air will arrive Tuesday night and
Wednesday, they differ on the timing of the ending of precipitation.
If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday evening as the 00z gfs
indicates, there is a small potential for minor snow accumulations
on Christmas Eve. This appears unlikely, but there has been too much
model variability to rule it out.

The differences in the models revolve around their handling of
individual 500 mb shortwaves rotating through the high-amplitude
trough. The deep trough will extend from the western Great Lakes to
northeast Mexico Tuesday night. Various past runs of the gfs have
separated out two shortwaves within the large-scale trough. The
shortwave of interest digs south into Texas Tuesday night, then
lifts northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve. The
gfs develops a secondary area of precipitation with this mid-level
low, which lingers long enough for a changeover to wet snow before
ending Wednesday afternoon/evening.

The 00z ecmwf does not show the 500 mb shortwave indicated by the
gfs. The result is a faster end to the precipitation and faster
arrival of cold air late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but no
measurable snow. The gfs is slower with the arrival of colder air in
the lower levels. Even if precipitation lingers as long as the gfs
indicates, the changeover to snow across most of the area would be
too late for any appreciable accumulation. The possible exception
would be in far northwest counties along and northwest of a kcgi to
kmvn line, mainly on Wednesday. The 00z nam does seem to support the
00z gfs.

All the precipitation will exit our region Wednesday night, followed
by high pressure Christmas morning. The high will move quickly east,
causing winds to become southerly on Christmas afternoon and night.
Temperatures will recover into the 40s on Christmas after a cold
start to the day. The ecmwf has been indicating highs in the 50s on
Christmas, but it is a warmer outlier.

Another cold front will move southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Friday afternoon and evening. This front will be starved for
moisture, and upper-level troughing will be much weaker with this
system. Therefore, pops and qpf will be much lower with this system.
Only slight chance pops are forecast in parts of southern IL and
southeast MO.

Colder high pressure will arrive on Saturday, with highs struggling
to reach 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 210310
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 910 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Distinct cloud line following the sharp surface ridge axis this
evening from northeast to southwest across Southern Illinois and
Southeast Missouri. The 5km resolution of the NAM-WRF model
guidance appears to be approximating the persistence of the cloud
line well through the overnight hours. Adjusted temperature and
dewpoint forecast to reflect diabatic variations in
radiation/advective issues under the cloud cover. See some
potential for patchy fog along the cloud edge along the clear sky
side...so added overnight. Not ready to issue any statement until
coverage of light fog becomes more prevalent.

No other changes made beyond first period (tonight) forecast at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 210310
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 910 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Distinct cloud line following the sharp surface ridge axis this
evening from northeast to southwest across Southern Illinois and
Southeast Missouri. The 5km resolution of the NAM-WRF model
guidance appears to be approximating the persistence of the cloud
line well through the overnight hours. Adjusted temperature and
dewpoint forecast to reflect diabatic variations in
radiation/advective issues under the cloud cover. See some
potential for patchy fog along the cloud edge along the clear sky
side...so added overnight. Not ready to issue any statement until
coverage of light fog becomes more prevalent.

No other changes made beyond first period (tonight) forecast at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 202332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KPAH 202332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 202106
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 202106
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 201150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A large, solid mass of lower VFR clouds covers the entire region
this morning. It doesn`t look good for them to scatter or clear.
Hopefully, subsidence in the cloud layer will be strong enough to
help the clouds dissipate over portions of the area this
afternoon. In the meantime, would not be surprised to see a few
hours of an MVFR ceiling at KCGI this morning. If clouds do
scatter out or clear late this afternoon, that could set the stage
for fog development. At this time, that seems most likely at KEVV.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 200916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST








000
FXUS63 KPAH 200916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST






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