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000
FXUS63 KPAH 010703
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
203 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MCS dropping down across MO will spread its clouds into/across PAH
FA this morning. It will also lay out some boundaries, the primary
one of which lays out across our northern tier this afternoon,
where we`ll have a slgt/small chance mentionable Pop.

As the mean energy in the long wave moves across the MS and Wabash
river valleys tonight and Tuesday, it will drag this primary
boundary into the heart of the FA and result in an uptick in Pops
to likely cat or better, particularly during the day Tuesday. This
has been a consistent model signal and looks a good bet with fropa
thru much of the area by 00Z Wed.

The front/boundary hangs up across our southern tier or just to
the south Tue night, and returns as a warm sector boundary late
Tue night and Wed. This is indicated by several model members so we
adjusted Pops accordingly.

Temps look to remain summerlike at or just above climo norms from
the mid/upr 80s to near 90 for highs, and generally in the
u60s/lower 70s for lows, with continued muggy dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Toddy`s
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Will monitor tonight for any possible developing restrictions to
vsbys pre dawn. Cigs develop as MCS moves this way, restrictions
to MVFR possible at times, but believe will generally stay VFR.
Anticipate increasing gradient/winds during the day ahead of
approaching boundary. Pops enter forecast tonight but refrain from
terminal mention at this writing.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 010703
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
203 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MCS dropping down across MO will spread its clouds into/across PAH
FA this morning. It will also lay out some boundaries, the primary
one of which lays out across our northern tier this afternoon,
where we`ll have a slgt/small chance mentionable Pop.

As the mean energy in the long wave moves across the MS and Wabash
river valleys tonight and Tuesday, it will drag this primary
boundary into the heart of the FA and result in an uptick in Pops
to likely cat or better, particularly during the day Tuesday. This
has been a consistent model signal and looks a good bet with fropa
thru much of the area by 00Z Wed.

The front/boundary hangs up across our southern tier or just to
the south Tue night, and returns as a warm sector boundary late
Tue night and Wed. This is indicated by several model members so we
adjusted Pops accordingly.

Temps look to remain summerlike at or just above climo norms from
the mid/upr 80s to near 90 for highs, and generally in the
u60s/lower 70s for lows, with continued muggy dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Toddy`s
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Will monitor tonight for any possible developing restrictions to
vsbys pre dawn. Cigs develop as MCS moves this way, restrictions
to MVFR possible at times, but believe will generally stay VFR.
Anticipate increasing gradient/winds during the day ahead of
approaching boundary. Pops enter forecast tonight but refrain from
terminal mention at this writing.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 010359
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1059 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Wvapor and RAP data shows subtle mid level wave moving slowly
east across the area. Convection near SEMO making little eastward
progress. Tiny showers over west KY moving east as well. Will keep
PoPs limited through the early evening before ending them from
west to east overnight. Frontal boundary will approach the area
Monday night. Best chance of activity will be over far north and
west sections of the area. Cannot rule out isolated anywhere, but
chances too low down into west KY to include for now. Moisture is
increasingly limited south of the Ohio. PoPs will rise from NW to
SE Monday night as the front settles south toward the area. Again
best chances north, lowering south. Tuesday the front will stall
somewhere across the area, with upper level support moving across
the region. Thus the chance of convection continues. We could see
some strong storms Tuesday given degree of forecast instability,
and an uptick in the mean flow 850-500mb. Tuesday night we will
drop off PoPs in the wake of the upper system. However more
activity could move into or toward SEMO toward daybreak Wednesday.
Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest blend of
raw model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Toddy`s
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period. SW winds
on Monday will pick up into the 10-15 kt range as a pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front in the Plains. Some gusts
could reach 20 kts during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 010359
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1059 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Wvapor and RAP data shows subtle mid level wave moving slowly
east across the area. Convection near SEMO making little eastward
progress. Tiny showers over west KY moving east as well. Will keep
PoPs limited through the early evening before ending them from
west to east overnight. Frontal boundary will approach the area
Monday night. Best chance of activity will be over far north and
west sections of the area. Cannot rule out isolated anywhere, but
chances too low down into west KY to include for now. Moisture is
increasingly limited south of the Ohio. PoPs will rise from NW to
SE Monday night as the front settles south toward the area. Again
best chances north, lowering south. Tuesday the front will stall
somewhere across the area, with upper level support moving across
the region. Thus the chance of convection continues. We could see
some strong storms Tuesday given degree of forecast instability,
and an uptick in the mean flow 850-500mb. Tuesday night we will
drop off PoPs in the wake of the upper system. However more
activity could move into or toward SEMO toward daybreak Wednesday.
Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest blend of
raw model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Toddy`s
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period. SW winds
on Monday will pick up into the 10-15 kt range as a pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front in the Plains. Some gusts
could reach 20 kts during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 010014
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
714 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Wvapor and RAP data shows subtle mid level wave moving slowly
east across the area. Convection near SEMO making little eastward
progress. Tiny showers over west KY moving east as well. Will keep
PoPs limited through the early evening before ending them from
west to east overnight. Frontal boundary will approach the area
Monday night. Best chance of activity will be over far north and
west sections of the area. Cannot rule out isolated anywhere, but
chances too low down into west KY to include for now. Moisture is
increasingly limited south of the Ohio. PoPs will rise from NW to
SE Monday night as the front settles south toward the area. Again
best chances north, lowering south. Tuesday the front will stall
somewhere across the area, with upper level support moving across
the region. Thus the chance of convection continues. We could see
some strong storms Tuesday given degree of forecast instability,
and an uptick in the mean flow 850-500mb. Tuesday night we will
drop off PoPs in the wake of the upper system. However more
activity could move into or toward SEMO toward daybreak Wednesday.
Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest blend of
raw model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Todays
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 710 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period. SW winds
on Monday will pick up into the 10-15 kt range as a pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front in the Plains. Some gusts
could reach 20 kts during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 010014
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
714 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Wvapor and RAP data shows subtle mid level wave moving slowly
east across the area. Convection near SEMO making little eastward
progress. Tiny showers over west KY moving east as well. Will keep
PoPs limited through the early evening before ending them from
west to east overnight. Frontal boundary will approach the area
Monday night. Best chance of activity will be over far north and
west sections of the area. Cannot rule out isolated anywhere, but
chances too low down into west KY to include for now. Moisture is
increasingly limited south of the Ohio. PoPs will rise from NW to
SE Monday night as the front settles south toward the area. Again
best chances north, lowering south. Tuesday the front will stall
somewhere across the area, with upper level support moving across
the region. Thus the chance of convection continues. We could see
some strong storms Tuesday given degree of forecast instability,
and an uptick in the mean flow 850-500mb. Tuesday night we will
drop off PoPs in the wake of the upper system. However more
activity could move into or toward SEMO toward daybreak Wednesday.
Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest blend of
raw model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Todays
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 710 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period. SW winds
on Monday will pick up into the 10-15 kt range as a pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front in the Plains. Some gusts
could reach 20 kts during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 311938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Wvapor and RAP data shows subtle mid level wave moving slowly
east across the area. Convection near SEMO making little eastward
progress. Tiny showers over west KY moving east as well. Will keep
PoPs limited through the early evening before ending them from
west to east overnight. Frontal boundary will approach the area
Monday night. Best chance of activity will be over far north and
west sections of the area. Cannot rule out isolated anywhere, but
chances too low down into west KY to include for now. Moisture is
increasingly limited south of the Ohio. PoPs will rise from NW to
SE Monday night as the front settles south toward the area. Again
best chances north, lowering south. Tuesday the front will stall
somewhere across the area, with upper level support moving across
the region. Thus the chance of convection continues. We could see
some strong storms Tuesday given degree of forecast instability,
and an uptick in the mean flow 850-500mb. Tuesday night we will
drop off PoPs in the wake of the upper system. However more
activity could move into or toward SEMO toward daybreak Wednesday.
Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest blend of
raw model output.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Todays
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Conditions continue to improve given diurnal aspect and with deeper
moisture heading east. Will linger mainly VFR Cu through the end
of the day, with any pockets of MVFR east of a KEVV to KCEY line
giving way to VFR. Chance of convection too low to include at any
of the Terminals. Not too concerned with fog tonight. Cannot rule
out some low cloud development based on moisture transport of
respectable moisture still across the area below 4k/ft. Wind
should stay up enough to preclude a real fog concern. SSW winds
will pick up mid morning Labor day, 10 kts or so, with some CU
expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 311938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Wvapor and RAP data shows subtle mid level wave moving slowly
east across the area. Convection near SEMO making little eastward
progress. Tiny showers over west KY moving east as well. Will keep
PoPs limited through the early evening before ending them from
west to east overnight. Frontal boundary will approach the area
Monday night. Best chance of activity will be over far north and
west sections of the area. Cannot rule out isolated anywhere, but
chances too low down into west KY to include for now. Moisture is
increasingly limited south of the Ohio. PoPs will rise from NW to
SE Monday night as the front settles south toward the area. Again
best chances north, lowering south. Tuesday the front will stall
somewhere across the area, with upper level support moving across
the region. Thus the chance of convection continues. We could see
some strong storms Tuesday given degree of forecast instability,
and an uptick in the mean flow 850-500mb. Tuesday night we will
drop off PoPs in the wake of the upper system. However more
activity could move into or toward SEMO toward daybreak Wednesday.
Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest blend of
raw model output.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Todays
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Conditions continue to improve given diurnal aspect and with deeper
moisture heading east. Will linger mainly VFR Cu through the end
of the day, with any pockets of MVFR east of a KEVV to KCEY line
giving way to VFR. Chance of convection too low to include at any
of the Terminals. Not too concerned with fog tonight. Cannot rule
out some low cloud development based on moisture transport of
respectable moisture still across the area below 4k/ft. Wind
should stay up enough to preclude a real fog concern. SSW winds
will pick up mid morning Labor day, 10 kts or so, with some CU
expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 310746
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

An upper level wave lifting across the Commonwealth today will
drag remaining showers/storms eastward and eventually out of our
area, albeit for a short-lived while.

Tonight-Labor Day now look essentially dry, as the next developing
weather system takes shape and approaches by Tuesday. Pops reenter
the forecast and spike to likely category Tuesday as the system
sweeps into the Quad State.

Temps remain in the 80s/near 90 for highs, with muggy lows in the
lower 70s holding true thru the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the extended forecast period, the mid/upper flow over the CONUS
will start out zonal, but should begin to transition to more of a
wswrly flow as a broad ridge rebounds over the srn CONUS, and nrn
stream shrtwv energy moves along the Canadian border and shears out
a bit. At the sfc, this will mean there will be a quasi-stationary
front in the vicinity of the PAH forecast area early on Wed. This
boundary is forecast to move newd as a warm front during the day and
Wed night, putting the area back into the warm sector. By Fri,
another sfc (cold) front is forecast to approach our region. By
sometime on Sat, it appears that the front will make its way through
the PAH forecast area, turning the low level flow from generally
south to north, allowing dewpoints and lows to eventually drop below
70 during the weekend.

Diurnal instability will be aided by these sfc boundaries, thus, the
periods with the higher PoPs for pcpn (around 40 percent) in the
form of showers and tstms will be Tue night/Wed and Sat. Deep moist
convection should be mainly isolated otherwise.

Ahead of the second frontal boundary, temps are expected to peak
around 90 degrees, dropping into the middle 80s by Sun. Summer
basically will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will continue thru the early part of
the TAF forecast period as an upper level wave lifts
showers/storms across and eventually to the east of the terminals
today. The latter half of the period should see clearing skies,
but that could lead to another night of fog development with
restricted vsbys by tmrw morning, esp where the better rains fall.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 310746
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

An upper level wave lifting across the Commonwealth today will
drag remaining showers/storms eastward and eventually out of our
area, albeit for a short-lived while.

Tonight-Labor Day now look essentially dry, as the next developing
weather system takes shape and approaches by Tuesday. Pops reenter
the forecast and spike to likely category Tuesday as the system
sweeps into the Quad State.

Temps remain in the 80s/near 90 for highs, with muggy lows in the
lower 70s holding true thru the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

In the extended forecast period, the mid/upper flow over the CONUS
will start out zonal, but should begin to transition to more of a
wswrly flow as a broad ridge rebounds over the srn CONUS, and nrn
stream shrtwv energy moves along the Canadian border and shears out
a bit. At the sfc, this will mean there will be a quasi-stationary
front in the vicinity of the PAH forecast area early on Wed. This
boundary is forecast to move newd as a warm front during the day and
Wed night, putting the area back into the warm sector. By Fri,
another sfc (cold) front is forecast to approach our region. By
sometime on Sat, it appears that the front will make its way through
the PAH forecast area, turning the low level flow from generally
south to north, allowing dewpoints and lows to eventually drop below
70 during the weekend.

Diurnal instability will be aided by these sfc boundaries, thus, the
periods with the higher PoPs for pcpn (around 40 percent) in the
form of showers and tstms will be Tue night/Wed and Sat. Deep moist
convection should be mainly isolated otherwise.

Ahead of the second frontal boundary, temps are expected to peak
around 90 degrees, dropping into the middle 80s by Sun. Summer
basically will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will continue thru the early part of
the TAF forecast period as an upper level wave lifts
showers/storms across and eventually to the east of the terminals
today. The latter half of the period should see clearing skies,
but that could lead to another night of fog development with
restricted vsbys by tmrw morning, esp where the better rains fall.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 310735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

An upper level wave lifting across the Commonwealth today will
drag remaining showers/storms eastward and eventually out of our
area, albeit for a short-lived while.

Tonight-Labor Day now look essentially dry, as the next developing
weather system takes shape and approaches by Tuesday. Pops reenter
the forecast and spike to likely category Tuesday as the system
sweeps into the Quad State.

Temps remain in the 80s/near 90 for highs, with muggy lows in the
lower 70s holding true thru the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF
indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will continue thru the early part of
the TAF forecast period as an upper level wave lifts
showers/storms across and eventually to the east of the terminals
today. The latter half of the period should see clearing skies,
but that could lead to another night of fog development with
restricted vsbys by tmrw morning, esp where the better rains fall.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 310735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

An upper level wave lifting across the Commonwealth today will
drag remaining showers/storms eastward and eventually out of our
area, albeit for a short-lived while.

Tonight-Labor Day now look essentially dry, as the next developing
weather system takes shape and approaches by Tuesday. Pops reenter
the forecast and spike to likely category Tuesday as the system
sweeps into the Quad State.

Temps remain in the 80s/near 90 for highs, with muggy lows in the
lower 70s holding true thru the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF
indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will continue thru the early part of
the TAF forecast period as an upper level wave lifts
showers/storms across and eventually to the east of the terminals
today. The latter half of the period should see clearing skies,
but that could lead to another night of fog development with
restricted vsbys by tmrw morning, esp where the better rains fall.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 310455
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF
indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Clusters of showers will continue to move northeast from the Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. The kpah and kevv taf sites will be near
the western fringe of these showers...which should become rather
numerous overnight. It appears kowb will have the most frequent
showers through the night. Kcgi will remain mainly to the west of
the rain. Some rumbles of thunder are possible...but instability has
waned enough to exclude thunder from the tafs.

Areas of stratus were on the increase late this evening...with some
mvfr cigs already reported at kcgi/kpah. Expect a continued increase
in coverage of mvfr cigs...with most locations becoming ifr by
around sunrise. This is in agreement with computer model guidance.
Drier air arriving in the wake of the low pressure system will allow
for partial clearing Sunday afternoon. A few isolated storms could
pop up in the heat of the day...but coverage will be too low to
mention in tafs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...MY











000
FXUS63 KPAH 310455
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF
indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Clusters of showers will continue to move northeast from the Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. The kpah and kevv taf sites will be near
the western fringe of these showers...which should become rather
numerous overnight. It appears kowb will have the most frequent
showers through the night. Kcgi will remain mainly to the west of
the rain. Some rumbles of thunder are possible...but instability has
waned enough to exclude thunder from the tafs.

Areas of stratus were on the increase late this evening...with some
mvfr cigs already reported at kcgi/kpah. Expect a continued increase
in coverage of mvfr cigs...with most locations becoming ifr by
around sunrise. This is in agreement with computer model guidance.
Drier air arriving in the wake of the low pressure system will allow
for partial clearing Sunday afternoon. A few isolated storms could
pop up in the heat of the day...but coverage will be too low to
mention in tafs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...MY










000
FXUS63 KPAH 310153
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
853 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Update short term forecast (tonight) to reduce rain chances to
next to nil through midnight over all locations except the far
southern Pennyrile of west KY, where rain and isolated
thunderstorms will likely lift back ne into the region from nw TN.
Will allow rain chance to increase some after midnight, esp over
wrn KY as sfc low and another possible H50 shortwave approach
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF
indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 623 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Clusters of showers and storms will continue to move north/northeast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The kpah and kevv taf
sites will be near the western fringe of this activity...which
should be rather widespread through the night. It appears kowb will
have occasional rain through the night. Kcgi will remain mainly to
the west of the rain. Some rumbles of thunder are possible...but
instability has waned due to widespread rain and clouds this
afternoon.

Second concern is low stratus around sunrise where the ground is
saturated. Will follow computer guidance and go with ifr cigs early
to mid morning where widespread rain has moistened the low levels.
Drier air arriving in the wake of the low pressure system will allow
for partial clearing Sunday afternoon. A few isolated storms could
pop up in the heat of the day...but coverage will be too low to
mention in tafs.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM








000
FXUS63 KPAH 302322
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF
indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 623 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Clusters of showers and storms will continue to move north/northeast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The kpah and kevv taf
sites will be near the western fringe of this activity...which
should be rather widespread through the night. It appears kowb will
have occasional rain through the night. Kcgi will remain mainly to
the west of the rain. Some rumbles of thunder are possible...but
instability has waned due to widespread rain and clouds this
afternoon.

Second concern is low stratus around sunrise where the ground is
saturated. Will follow computer guidance and go with ifr cigs early
to mid morning where widespread rain has moistened the low levels.
Drier air arriving in the wake of the low pressure system will allow
for partial clearing Sunday afternoon. A few isolated storms could
pop up in the heat of the day...but coverage will be too low to
mention in tafs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Public...CW/CN
Aviation...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 302322
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF
indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 623 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Clusters of showers and storms will continue to move north/northeast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The kpah and kevv taf
sites will be near the western fringe of this activity...which
should be rather widespread through the night. It appears kowb will
have occasional rain through the night. Kcgi will remain mainly to
the west of the rain. Some rumbles of thunder are possible...but
instability has waned due to widespread rain and clouds this
afternoon.

Second concern is low stratus around sunrise where the ground is
saturated. Will follow computer guidance and go with ifr cigs early
to mid morning where widespread rain has moistened the low levels.
Drier air arriving in the wake of the low pressure system will allow
for partial clearing Sunday afternoon. A few isolated storms could
pop up in the heat of the day...but coverage will be too low to
mention in tafs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Public...CW/CN
Aviation...MY










000
FXUS63 KPAH 301937
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The 00Z/12Z
ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon, as the
GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS though to
just shy of the likely category with the best chances in MO/IL.
Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we have
enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With the upper trof slowly approaching from the west, expect waves
of convection of varying intensity to continue through the forecast
period. Best chances after 00z should be east of a KEVV-KJBR line
across our area, slowly diminishing from the west. With the wind
staying up overnight, was not concerned with fog. VSBY restrictions
should be mainly with precipitation. We are forecasting cigs down
into the MVFR category, possibly pushing IFR. Winds from the SSW
should average about 5 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 301937
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The 00Z/12Z
ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon, as the
GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS though to
just shy of the likely category with the best chances in MO/IL.
Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we have
enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With the upper trof slowly approaching from the west, expect waves
of convection of varying intensity to continue through the forecast
period. Best chances after 00z should be east of a KEVV-KJBR line
across our area, slowly diminishing from the west. With the wind
staying up overnight, was not concerned with fog. VSBY restrictions
should be mainly with precipitation. We are forecasting cigs down
into the MVFR category, possibly pushing IFR. Winds from the SSW
should average about 5 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 301717
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Updated AVIATION section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A mid level shrtwv trof moving ewd across the upper Midwest is
forecast to shear out this weekend as it impinges on a dominant
sern CONUS ridge. As a result, deep flow over the PAH forecast
area will remain srly/swrly, drawing Gulf moisture into our
region. This, combined with instability, will allow shower and
tstm activity to become common today, especially in the wrn half
of the region. As the main trof axis approaches Sat night/Sunday,
a sfc wave may develop just ahead of it, making showers/tstms most
likely in the sern half of the region, and possibly producing some
heavier rainfall rates especially in the Pennyrile region of KY.
Precipitable water figures are expected to be in excess of two
inches across most of the area. However, at this time, a FF watch
does not seem warranted, based on current flash flood guidance.

With the passage of what`s left of the trof axis Sunday afternoon,
pcpn should wane from west to east, leaving Sunday night mostly
dry with partly cloudy skies.

By Mon, another shrtwv trof moving through the Great Lakes region is
progged to push a sfc cold front into the central Plains. Just
ahead of the trof axis, there may be enough lift for some
convective activity to develop mainly in the nrn half of our
region in the afternoon.

While lows will remain mostly in the lower 70s, highs will be
noticeably cooler for the next couple of days due to pcpn and
cloud cover. Mid 80s will be common over the weekend, before
rebounding a bit by Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, a
developing frontal system will enter our northern and western
counties, as a long wave trof drops down across the upper MS
valley. The boundary then lays out across the area Tuesday, and
goes quasi-stationary, before returning as a warm sector boundary,
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, Pops range from the mid
to high chance category thru Wednesday.

After that, broader high pressure over the southern U.S. results
in sufficient height rises in our area to diminish daily Pops to a
slgt chance mention, particularly for the heat of the day
possibility of storms, through Thursday. Friday sees the High
effectively silence pops out of mention, though an isolated chance
possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Temps look to hold near summer like values within just a few
degrees of 90 and 70 for highs and lows through the entire
extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With the upper trof slowly approaching from the west, expect waves
of convection of varying intensity to continue through the forecast
period. Best chances after 00z should be east of a KEVV-KJBR line
across our area, slowly diminishing from the west. With the wind
staying up overnight, was not concerned with fog. VSBY restrictions
should be mainly with precipitation. We are forecasting cigs down
into the MVFR category, possibly pushing IFR. Winds from the SSW
should average about 5 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 301302
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
803 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A mid level shrtwv trof moving ewd across the upper Midwest is
forecast to shear out this weekend as it impinges on a dominant
sern CONUS ridge. As a result, deep flow over the PAH forecast
area will remain srly/swrly, drawing Gulf moisture into our
region. This, combined with instability, will allow shower and
tstm activity to become common today, especially in the wrn half
of the region. As the main trof axis approaches Sat night/Sunday,
a sfc wave may develop just ahead of it, making showers/tstms most
likely in the sern half of the region, and possibly producing some
heavier rainfall rates especially in the Pennyrile region of KY.
Precipitable water figures are expected to be in excess of two
inches across most of the area. However, at this time, a FF watch
does not seem warranted, based on current flash flood guidance.

With the passage of what`s left of the trof axis Sunday afternoon,
pcpn should wane from west to east, leaving Sunday night mostly
dry with partly cloudy skies.

By Mon, another shrtwv trof moving through the Great Lakes region is
progged to push a sfc cold front into the central Plains. Just
ahead of the trof axis, there may be enough lift for some
convective activity to develop mainly in the nrn half of our
region in the afternoon.

While lows will remain mostly in the lower 70s, highs will be
noticeably cooler for the next couple of days due to pcpn and
cloud cover. Mid 80s will be common over the weekend, before
rebounding a bit by Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, a
developing frontal system will enter our northern and western
counties, as a long wave trof drops down across the upper MS
valley. The boundary then lays out across the area Tuesday, and
goes quasi-stationary, before returning as a warm sector boundary,
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, Pops range from the mid
to high chance category thru Wednesday.

After that, broader high pressure over the southern U.S. results
in sufficient height rises in our area to diminish daily Pops to a
slgt chance mention, particularly for the heat of the day
possibility of storms, through Thursday. Friday sees the High
effectively silence pops out of mention, though an isolated chance
possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Temps look to hold near summer like values within just a few
degrees of 90 and 70 for highs and lows through the entire
extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 803 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

As a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere approaches
our area...shower and tstm activity will eventually expand ewd into
all the taf sites today, but timing will continue to be difficult to
forecast. Thunder could occur at any time today, so VCTS wording was
used for much of the daylight hours. Mainly VFR vsbys are expected
where it is not raining, but vsbys will likely be highly variable
since the showers/tstms could be heavy. A break in the shower
activity appears likely Saturday evening in the wake of the upper
level disturbance, but with all the moisture around, at least MVFR
fog is likely in the wee hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB










000
FXUS63 KPAH 301302
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
803 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A mid level shrtwv trof moving ewd across the upper Midwest is
forecast to shear out this weekend as it impinges on a dominant
sern CONUS ridge. As a result, deep flow over the PAH forecast
area will remain srly/swrly, drawing Gulf moisture into our
region. This, combined with instability, will allow shower and
tstm activity to become common today, especially in the wrn half
of the region. As the main trof axis approaches Sat night/Sunday,
a sfc wave may develop just ahead of it, making showers/tstms most
likely in the sern half of the region, and possibly producing some
heavier rainfall rates especially in the Pennyrile region of KY.
Precipitable water figures are expected to be in excess of two
inches across most of the area. However, at this time, a FF watch
does not seem warranted, based on current flash flood guidance.

With the passage of what`s left of the trof axis Sunday afternoon,
pcpn should wane from west to east, leaving Sunday night mostly
dry with partly cloudy skies.

By Mon, another shrtwv trof moving through the Great Lakes region is
progged to push a sfc cold front into the central Plains. Just
ahead of the trof axis, there may be enough lift for some
convective activity to develop mainly in the nrn half of our
region in the afternoon.

While lows will remain mostly in the lower 70s, highs will be
noticeably cooler for the next couple of days due to pcpn and
cloud cover. Mid 80s will be common over the weekend, before
rebounding a bit by Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, a
developing frontal system will enter our northern and western
counties, as a long wave trof drops down across the upper MS
valley. The boundary then lays out across the area Tuesday, and
goes quasi-stationary, before returning as a warm sector boundary,
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, Pops range from the mid
to high chance category thru Wednesday.

After that, broader high pressure over the southern U.S. results
in sufficient height rises in our area to diminish daily Pops to a
slgt chance mention, particularly for the heat of the day
possibility of storms, through Thursday. Friday sees the High
effectively silence pops out of mention, though an isolated chance
possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Temps look to hold near summer like values within just a few
degrees of 90 and 70 for highs and lows through the entire
extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 803 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

As a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere approaches
our area...shower and tstm activity will eventually expand ewd into
all the taf sites today, but timing will continue to be difficult to
forecast. Thunder could occur at any time today, so VCTS wording was
used for much of the daylight hours. Mainly VFR vsbys are expected
where it is not raining, but vsbys will likely be highly variable
since the showers/tstms could be heavy. A break in the shower
activity appears likely Saturday evening in the wake of the upper
level disturbance, but with all the moisture around, at least MVFR
fog is likely in the wee hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB









000
FXUS63 KPAH 300823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A mid level shrtwv trof moving ewd across the upper Midwest is
forecast to shear out this weekend as it impinges on a dominant
sern CONUS ridge. As a result, deep flow over the PAH forecast
area will remain srly/swrly, drawing Gulf moisture into our
region. This, combined with instability, will allow shower and
tstm activity to become common today, especially in the wrn half
of the region. As the main trof axis approaches Sat night/Sunday,
a sfc wave may develop just ahead of it, making showers/tstms most
likely in the sern half of the region, and possibly producing some
heavier rainfall rates especially in the Pennyrile region of KY.
Precipitable water figures are expected to be in excess of two
inches across most of the area. However, at this time, a FF watch
does not seem warranted, based on current flash flood guidance.

With the passage of what`s left of the trof axis Sunday afternoon,
pcpn should wane from west to east, leaving Sunday night mostly
dry with partly cloudy skies.

By Mon, another shrtwv trof moving through the Great Lakes region is
progged to push a sfc cold front into the central Plains. Just
ahead of the trof axis, there may be enough lift for some
convective activity to develop mainly in the nrn half of our
region in the afternoon.

While lows will remain mostly in the lower 70s, highs will be
noticeably cooler for the next couple of days due to pcpn and
cloud cover. Mid 80s will be common over the weekend, before
rebounding a bit by Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, a
developing frontal system will enter our northern and western
counties, as a long wave trof drops down across the upper MS
valley. The boundary then lays out across the area Tuesday, and
goes quasi-stationary, before returning as a warm sector boundary,
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, Pops range from the mid
to high chance category thru Wednesday.

After that, broader high pressure over the southern U.S. results
in sufficient height rises in our area to diminish daily Pops to a
slgt chance mention, particularly for the heat of the day
possibility of storms, through Thursday. Friday sees the High
effectively silence pops out of mention, though an isolated chance
possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Temps look to hold near summer like values within just a few
degrees of 90 and 70 for highs and lows through the entire
extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Light showers will continue to move across southeast Missouri
overnight...but they will struggle to cross the Mississippi River
as they move into more stable air. As a disturbance in the upper
levels of the atmosphere approaches our area...the activity will
eventually reach all the taf sites around 12z. Instability will be
quite weak by that time...so predominantly showers are expected.
Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but it was not worth a
12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly mvfr vsbys are
expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys will likely be
highly variable since the showers could be heavy. A break in the
shower activity appears likely Saturday evening in the wake of the
upper level disturbance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB







000
FXUS63 KPAH 300823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A mid level shrtwv trof moving ewd across the upper Midwest is
forecast to shear out this weekend as it impinges on a dominant
sern CONUS ridge. As a result, deep flow over the PAH forecast
area will remain srly/swrly, drawing Gulf moisture into our
region. This, combined with instability, will allow shower and
tstm activity to become common today, especially in the wrn half
of the region. As the main trof axis approaches Sat night/Sunday,
a sfc wave may develop just ahead of it, making showers/tstms most
likely in the sern half of the region, and possibly producing some
heavier rainfall rates especially in the Pennyrile region of KY.
Precipitable water figures are expected to be in excess of two
inches across most of the area. However, at this time, a FF watch
does not seem warranted, based on current flash flood guidance.

With the passage of what`s left of the trof axis Sunday afternoon,
pcpn should wane from west to east, leaving Sunday night mostly
dry with partly cloudy skies.

By Mon, another shrtwv trof moving through the Great Lakes region is
progged to push a sfc cold front into the central Plains. Just
ahead of the trof axis, there may be enough lift for some
convective activity to develop mainly in the nrn half of our
region in the afternoon.

While lows will remain mostly in the lower 70s, highs will be
noticeably cooler for the next couple of days due to pcpn and
cloud cover. Mid 80s will be common over the weekend, before
rebounding a bit by Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, a
developing frontal system will enter our northern and western
counties, as a long wave trof drops down across the upper MS
valley. The boundary then lays out across the area Tuesday, and
goes quasi-stationary, before returning as a warm sector boundary,
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, Pops range from the mid
to high chance category thru Wednesday.

After that, broader high pressure over the southern U.S. results
in sufficient height rises in our area to diminish daily Pops to a
slgt chance mention, particularly for the heat of the day
possibility of storms, through Thursday. Friday sees the High
effectively silence pops out of mention, though an isolated chance
possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Temps look to hold near summer like values within just a few
degrees of 90 and 70 for highs and lows through the entire
extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Light showers will continue to move across southeast Missouri
overnight...but they will struggle to cross the Mississippi River
as they move into more stable air. As a disturbance in the upper
levels of the atmosphere approaches our area...the activity will
eventually reach all the taf sites around 12z. Instability will be
quite weak by that time...so predominantly showers are expected.
Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but it was not worth a
12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly mvfr vsbys are
expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys will likely be
highly variable since the showers could be heavy. A break in the
shower activity appears likely Saturday evening in the wake of the
upper level disturbance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB








000
FXUS63 KPAH 300632
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
132 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, a
developing frontal system will enter our northern and western
counties, as a long wave trof drops down across the upper MS
valley. The boundary then lays out across the area Tuesday, and
goes quasi-stationary, before returning as a warm sector boundary,
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, Pops range from the mid
to high chance category thru Wednesday.

After that, broader high pressure over the southern U.S. results
in sufficient height rises in our area to diminish daily Pops to a
slgt chance mention, particularly for the heat of the day
possibility of storms, through Thursday. Friday sees the High
effectively silence pops out of mention, though an isolated chance
possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Temps look to hold near summer like values within just a few
degrees of 90 and 70 for highs and lows through the entire
extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and possibly a few storms will continue to move across
southeast Missouri overnight...but they will struggle to cross the
Mississippi River as they move into more stable air. As a
disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere approaches our
area...the activity will eventually reach all the taf sites around
12z. Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy. A
break in the shower activity appears likely Saturday evening in the
wake of the upper level disturbance.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 300459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and possibly a few storms will continue to move across
southeast Missouri overnight...but they will struggle to cross the
Mississippi River as they move into more stable air. As a
disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere approaches our
area...the activity will eventually reach all the taf sites around
12z. Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy. A
break in the shower activity appears likely Saturday evening in the
wake of the upper level disturbance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY













000
FXUS63 KPAH 300459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and possibly a few storms will continue to move across
southeast Missouri overnight...but they will struggle to cross the
Mississippi River as they move into more stable air. As a
disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere approaches our
area...the activity will eventually reach all the taf sites around
12z. Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy. A
break in the shower activity appears likely Saturday evening in the
wake of the upper level disturbance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY












000
FXUS63 KPAH 292332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and storms will continue to make it into southeast Missouri
this evening...but they will be moving into more stable air as they
approach the Mississippi River. As a disturbance in the upper levels
of the atmosphere approaches our area...the activity will eventually
reach all the taf sites late tonight and Saturday morning.
Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY











000
FXUS63 KPAH 292332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and storms will continue to make it into southeast Missouri
this evening...but they will be moving into more stable air as they
approach the Mississippi River. As a disturbance in the upper levels
of the atmosphere approaches our area...the activity will eventually
reach all the taf sites late tonight and Saturday morning.
Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY










000
FXUS63 KPAH 292015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith









000
FXUS63 KPAH 292015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 291733 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/SHORT TERM...DH/RJP
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291733 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/SHORT TERM...DH/RJP
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 291146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Once MVFR/IFR fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Winds will become southerly at
5 to 10 knots after 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to
impact western terminals after midnight. Added PROB30 mention at
KCGI and KPAH as a result.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Once MVFR/IFR fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Winds will become southerly at
5 to 10 knots after 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to
impact western terminals after midnight. Added PROB30 mention at
KCGI and KPAH as a result.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 290836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









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