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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300950
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Well, the main forecast challenge today continues to lie with the
weekend storm system. Confidence is increasing that this will be
mainly a rain event over much of the region. Model trends over the
past 24 hours now have been to shift the sfc low farther and
farther to the north across MO/IL Sat night/Sun. This would put
most of our forecast area in a warmer low lvl southeasterly flow
regime, which does not bode well for significant winter weather in
this region. In fact, it now appears as though some locations of
wrn KY and se MO may top 40 degrees Sunday. Due to recent model
trends, will shift the rain snow mix area northward to up around
the I-64 corridor.

As far as rain amounts are concerned, upward of a half inch of
rain will be possible over many locations. Conditions could be
similar to last Sunday, when it rained steadily much of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A couple of short-lived cold blasts will be the main story in the
long term. Precipitation potential will be low due to the lack of
moisture in the predominantly northwest upper flow pattern.

As far as the daily details...
On Monday...the first cold blast will be fully underway in the
morning. 850 mb temps will be in the minus 10 to minus 15 range
early in the day. Forecast soundings from the gfs indicate very
steep lapse rates and plenty of moisture in the low levels. This
could result in some cold advection flurries as well as gusty
surface winds. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that highs will
be only in the mid to upper 20s in most areas. Clearing is expected
during the day as a 1032 mb high builds east across Illinois.

On Monday night and Tuesday...low level winds will back into the
southwest as the high crosses the Appalachians. 850 mb temps will
respond very rapidly. In fact, the 00z gfs/ecmwf show 850 mb temps
warming about 20 degrees Celsius over a 48 hour period. Highs on
Tuesday should be in the lower 40s in most areas with plenty of sun.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday...a clipper type system will pass
well north of our region. There may be just enough moisture and lift
for some light rain or snow as the associated cold front approaches
from the northwest. The timing of the cold front varies widely from
model to model, which results in a large range of temp guidance for
Wednesday. The 00z gfs and ecmwf mos both show temps in the low to
mid 50s at kpah on Wednesday. Will nudge temps upward for Wednesday,
but not nearly that much.

On Wednesday night and Thursday...a second blast of cold air will be
arriving. The 00z model suite indicates this cold blast may not be
as strong as that on Monday. Timing differences are huge at this
time range. The 00z ecmwf indicates the cold front may not even be
through western Kentucky Thursday morning. The forecast will follow
the faster models, which show the cold, dry air well-entrenched over
the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Quite frustrated with the higher VFR ceilings than forecast, but
the expected ceilings near 3kft agl +/- 500 ft are finally coming
to fruition. Plan to keep these ceilings in place through at least
14z. Shortened the period of ceilings by 3-5 hours, before
clearing out.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 300950
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Well, the main forecast challenge today continues to lie with the
weekend storm system. Confidence is increasing that this will be
mainly a rain event over much of the region. Model trends over the
past 24 hours now have been to shift the sfc low farther and
farther to the north across MO/IL Sat night/Sun. This would put
most of our forecast area in a warmer low lvl southeasterly flow
regime, which does not bode well for significant winter weather in
this region. In fact, it now appears as though some locations of
wrn KY and se MO may top 40 degrees Sunday. Due to recent model
trends, will shift the rain snow mix area northward to up around
the I-64 corridor.

As far as rain amounts are concerned, upward of a half inch of
rain will be possible over many locations. Conditions could be
similar to last Sunday, when it rained steadily much of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A couple of short-lived cold blasts will be the main story in the
long term. Precipitation potential will be low due to the lack of
moisture in the predominantly northwest upper flow pattern.

As far as the daily details...
On Monday...the first cold blast will be fully underway in the
morning. 850 mb temps will be in the minus 10 to minus 15 range
early in the day. Forecast soundings from the gfs indicate very
steep lapse rates and plenty of moisture in the low levels. This
could result in some cold advection flurries as well as gusty
surface winds. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that highs will
be only in the mid to upper 20s in most areas. Clearing is expected
during the day as a 1032 mb high builds east across Illinois.

On Monday night and Tuesday...low level winds will back into the
southwest as the high crosses the Appalachians. 850 mb temps will
respond very rapidly. In fact, the 00z gfs/ecmwf show 850 mb temps
warming about 20 degrees Celsius over a 48 hour period. Highs on
Tuesday should be in the lower 40s in most areas with plenty of sun.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday...a clipper type system will pass
well north of our region. There may be just enough moisture and lift
for some light rain or snow as the associated cold front approaches
from the northwest. The timing of the cold front varies widely from
model to model, which results in a large range of temp guidance for
Wednesday. The 00z gfs and ecmwf mos both show temps in the low to
mid 50s at kpah on Wednesday. Will nudge temps upward for Wednesday,
but not nearly that much.

On Wednesday night and Thursday...a second blast of cold air will be
arriving. The 00z model suite indicates this cold blast may not be
as strong as that on Monday. Timing differences are huge at this
time range. The 00z ecmwf indicates the cold front may not even be
through western Kentucky Thursday morning. The forecast will follow
the faster models, which show the cold, dry air well-entrenched over
the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Quite frustrated with the higher VFR ceilings than forecast, but
the expected ceilings near 3kft agl +/- 500 ft are finally coming
to fruition. Plan to keep these ceilings in place through at least
14z. Shortened the period of ceilings by 3-5 hours, before
clearing out.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 300532
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Quite frustrated with the higher VFR ceilings than forecast, but
the expected ceilings near 3kft agl +/- 500 ft are finally coming
to fruition. Plan to keep these ceilings in place through at least
14z. Shortened the period of ceilings by 3-5 hours, before
clearing out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 300532
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Quite frustrated with the higher VFR ceilings than forecast, but
the expected ceilings near 3kft agl +/- 500 ft are finally coming
to fruition. Plan to keep these ceilings in place through at least
14z. Shortened the period of ceilings by 3-5 hours, before
clearing out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 300215
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
815 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 815 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Interim adjustment made to WFO PAH TAF`s to account for lower
ceilings and visibilities near the KEVV/KOWB sites due to passing
disturbance and temporary adjustment upward in ceilings for KPAH/KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 300215
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
815 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 815 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Interim adjustment made to WFO PAH TAF`s to account for lower
ceilings and visibilities near the KEVV/KOWB sites due to passing
disturbance and temporary adjustment upward in ceilings for KPAH/KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 292342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 541 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Given the degree of mixing below the cloud layer, do not expect
visibilities to be an issue with the the 00z Friday TAF issuance.
There will be a gradual drop in ceilings below the VFR threshold,
remaining generally between 2-3kft agl. The exception will be at
KCGI and KPAH, where a period of ceilings just below the 2kft agl
level will be possible later tonight into daybreak on Friday.

Anticipate most ceilings will dissipate Friday afternoon, becoming
unrestricted in nature before 00z Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 292342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 541 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Given the degree of mixing below the cloud layer, do not expect
visibilities to be an issue with the the 00z Friday TAF issuance.
There will be a gradual drop in ceilings below the VFR threshold,
remaining generally between 2-3kft agl. The exception will be at
KCGI and KPAH, where a period of ceilings just below the 2kft agl
level will be possible later tonight into daybreak on Friday.

Anticipate most ceilings will dissipate Friday afternoon, becoming
unrestricted in nature before 00z Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith








000
FXUS63 KPAH 292102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A large mass of MVFR ceilings is overspreading the region behind a
cold front late this morning. Given the expanse of the MVFR clouds
at this time, would not expect them to depart any time soon.
Definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance with scattering
or lifting not until Friday morning. Northwest winds will continue
to gust well above 20kts this afternoon, but they should subside
some by sunset. Winds will remain around 10kts through the
remainder of the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 292102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Nice cold frontal passage this morning; we got everything but cold
air. After falling for several hours, the temperature at KPAH is
just now back down to normal high levels for today. Went very
pessimistic on clearing of the low clouds. It will likely be
sometime tomorrow, hopefully morning, before significant clearing
occurs. Nudged low temperatures up a bit tonight, as cooling will
be achieved solely by advection, and we already stated it just
isn`t that cold an airmass. Also tempered highs a bit on Friday.
If the low clouds prove to be more stubborn, we will not be cold
enough.

Surface high pressure will hold on over the region Friday night
and much of Saturday. This should lead to decent radiational
cooling, especially east, and chilly lows possibly into the upper
teens by Saturday morning. All guidance points to a significant
increase in clouds through the day, as our next winter storm
approaches. Undercut statistical guidance for highs Saturday,
despite light south winds developing through the day.

The models may be finally latching onto a coherent solution for
the winter storm Saturday night through Sunday. The 12Z GFS,
ECMWF and GEM spread light QPF across our north initially Saturday
evening, and slowly try to push it south overnight. Much of west
Kentucky and the Missouri Boot Heel region may not see much
precipitation until after 12Z Sunday. The 12Z models, including
the NAM emphasize Sunday morning for the most widespread
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end from west to
east through the afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement in the surface
temperature forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and used them as a
guide for temperatures through the period. It still appears that
the precipitation will fall as snow and will be trying to melt in
the near surface layer which will likely be just above freezing
through the event.

Generally, went with pure snow where the GFS/ECMWF blend had less
than 35 degrees, and a rain snow mix elsewhere. Using Superblend
QPF and a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, both of which could be
conservative values, snowfall totals of around 5" are common
across the northern half of the area. There is a very sharp
gradient to the south. Even the NAM, which has a sharper surface
low and warmer air into the southern portions of the area, has
snowfall totals of 6-8" in the north.

The bottom line is that there is increasing potential for at least
Advisory level snows over much of the area, and Warning levels are
not out of the question across the north. Confidence is increasing,
but it is still not high enough to consider a headline or even a
Special Weather Statement at this time. Will address it in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM * CST THU JAN 29 2015

Models show high pressure building over the central Plains Sunday
night, which will help push our surface low farther east.  Light
snow/flurries will gradually taper off from west to east, with only
minor additional accumulations expected mainly during the evening,
and mainly across just our eastern half of counties. With the breezy
north winds, overnight lows will drop into the teens to around 20
degrees.

High pressure will slide across our region on Monday, and this will
help us see some sunshine, but temperatures will only climb into the
20s to around 30 degrees.  The high will move off to our east Monday
night, and the return of southerly winds will help temperatures
rebound to just a few degrees below seasonal readings.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, ECMWF, GFS and GEM all bring a
cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys,
with ECMWF and GFS having very similar placement and timing.  Precip
will likely be snow mainly late Tuesday night, with our southern
counties becoming a rain/snow mix on Wednesday based on surface
temperatures.  So far QPF amounts look pretty minor, but how much
warm air and moisture return occur ahead of the front will be
something to continue to watch.  For now just went with some slight
chance pops due to the low QPF amounts.

Behind the mid week cold front, high pressure will again build
across the central U.S.  This will give us quiet and chilly
conditions for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A large mass of MVFR ceilings is overspreading the region behind a
cold front late this morning. Given the expanse of the MVFR clouds
at this time, would not expect them to depart any time soon.
Definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance with scattering
or lifting not until Friday morning. Northwest winds will continue
to gust well above 20kts this afternoon, but they should subside
some by sunset. Winds will remain around 10kts through the
remainder of the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 291737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 905 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The forecast has been updated to catch up to the cloud and
temperature trends. Much of west Kentucky will have highs greater
than forecast late this morning. Also, the latest HRRR has no
precipitation over the area through the day, so removed all
measurable PoPs. Would not rule out some patchy drizzle across the
Evansville Tri State region this afternoon, but will add that in
once it becomes more obvious.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

A well-defined cold front will move quickly southeast across our
region this morning. A small line of showers developed well ahead
of the front from kowb to khop early this morning. Cannot rule out
another small line until the front passes to our east. For most of
the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage.

Behind the front, winds will shift into the northwest and become
rather gusty today. Some gusts around 25 knots are likely. NAM and
GFS 925 mb rh progs indicate widespread low cloudiness will arrive
behind the front and persist through the afternoon. Low level cold
advection and widespread cloudiness should result in a steady or
slowly falling temperature trend this afternoon. Highs will be in
the morning. A period of sunshine prior to the arrival of low
clouds could push temps up from their 08z readings in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

The main forecast issue for tonight is when and if the low clouds
will clear out. 925 mb rh forecasts from the 00z nam and gfs are
quite moist all night, especially east of the Mississippi River.
The forecast will show partial clearing from west to east tonight,
but at a slower rate than previous forecasts. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Friday still looks mostly sunny, although there may still be some
morning low clouds in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Winds will decrease as surface high pressure reaches the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley. Highs should be quite cold considering
the amount of sun, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Friday night and Saturday...mid and high clouds will gradually
increase ahead of the next system. The low levels will be
extremely dry, which should make it very difficult for precip to
reach the ground. Will keep in a slight chance of showers in the
Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Despite the clouds, highs
should be mainly in the lower and mid 40s due to southerly winds.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Main forecast challenge in this time frame comes with the storm
system that looks to be impacting the region over the weekend,
especially Sunday. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this
time regarding precip types.

As we begin the period, split mid/upper flow pattern should be in
place...with nrn branch trof digging se into the Plains and a nearly
stationary srn branch low in place over the Baja of CA. It now looks
as though the srn branch low will feed pacific moisture into the nrn
branch...leading to fairly widespread precip shield over the mid MS
River and Ohio Valleys Saturday night and esp Sunday as sfc low
pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. As mentioned, the main
uncertainly at this time lies with precip type. The latest 00z runs
of the operational GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that
the sfc low and inverted trof will remain farther south over
MS/AL...as a 1040 mb sfc high presses south into the nrn Plains.
This would result in a colder thermal profile than we were thinking
yesterday. Snow would be the main precip type over all except our
far southern counties, with some potential for a few inches, esp
along and north/west of the Ohio River. On the other hand for
example, 00Z NAM/GEM both bring the sfc low farther north, and are
thus much warmer in their thermal profiles. For this package, will
keep much of the nrn half of the forecast area mostly snow, and go
with rain/snow for now over much of wrn KY and se MO. Again,
uncertainty is still quite high and things are likely to change one
way or another as we get closer to the event.

Very cold air will follow in the wake of the system as Canadian high
pressure moves se into the region. Most locations will fall into the
teens later Sunday night and Monday night. Highs Monday will likely
remain below freezing. Of course, things could be even colder if any
areas manage to get a fresh layer of snow on the ground. The next
clipper system Tue/Tue night is expected to stay much farther north
and cross over the Great lakes region. May be some light precip as
it drags another cold front across the region, but most impacts with
this low are expected to remain north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A large mass of MVFR ceilings is overspreading the region behind a
cold front late this morning. Given the expanse of the MVFR clouds
at this time, would not expect them to depart any time soon.
Definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance with scattering
or lifting not until Friday morning. Northwest winds will continue
to gust well above 20kts this afternoon, but they should subside
some by sunset. Winds will remain around 10kts through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 905 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The forecast has been updated to catch up to the cloud and
temperature trends. Much of west Kentucky will have highs greater
than forecast late this morning. Also, the latest HRRR has no
precipitation over the area through the day, so removed all
measurable PoPs. Would not rule out some patchy drizzle across the
Evansville Tri State region this afternoon, but will add that in
once it becomes more obvious.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

A well-defined cold front will move quickly southeast across our
region this morning. A small line of showers developed well ahead
of the front from kowb to khop early this morning. Cannot rule out
another small line until the front passes to our east. For most of
the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage.

Behind the front, winds will shift into the northwest and become
rather gusty today. Some gusts around 25 knots are likely. NAM and
GFS 925 mb rh progs indicate widespread low cloudiness will arrive
behind the front and persist through the afternoon. Low level cold
advection and widespread cloudiness should result in a steady or
slowly falling temperature trend this afternoon. Highs will be in
the morning. A period of sunshine prior to the arrival of low
clouds could push temps up from their 08z readings in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

The main forecast issue for tonight is when and if the low clouds
will clear out. 925 mb rh forecasts from the 00z nam and gfs are
quite moist all night, especially east of the Mississippi River.
The forecast will show partial clearing from west to east tonight,
but at a slower rate than previous forecasts. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Friday still looks mostly sunny, although there may still be some
morning low clouds in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Winds will decrease as surface high pressure reaches the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley. Highs should be quite cold considering
the amount of sun, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Friday night and Saturday...mid and high clouds will gradually
increase ahead of the next system. The low levels will be
extremely dry, which should make it very difficult for precip to
reach the ground. Will keep in a slight chance of showers in the
Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Despite the clouds, highs
should be mainly in the lower and mid 40s due to southerly winds.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Main forecast challenge in this time frame comes with the storm
system that looks to be impacting the region over the weekend,
especially Sunday. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this
time regarding precip types.

As we begin the period, split mid/upper flow pattern should be in
place...with nrn branch trof digging se into the Plains and a nearly
stationary srn branch low in place over the Baja of CA. It now looks
as though the srn branch low will feed pacific moisture into the nrn
branch...leading to fairly widespread precip shield over the mid MS
River and Ohio Valleys Saturday night and esp Sunday as sfc low
pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. As mentioned, the main
uncertainly at this time lies with precip type. The latest 00z runs
of the operational GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that
the sfc low and inverted trof will remain farther south over
MS/AL...as a 1040 mb sfc high presses south into the nrn Plains.
This would result in a colder thermal profile than we were thinking
yesterday. Snow would be the main precip type over all except our
far southern counties, with some potential for a few inches, esp
along and north/west of the Ohio River. On the other hand for
example, 00Z NAM/GEM both bring the sfc low farther north, and are
thus much warmer in their thermal profiles. For this package, will
keep much of the nrn half of the forecast area mostly snow, and go
with rain/snow for now over much of wrn KY and se MO. Again,
uncertainty is still quite high and things are likely to change one
way or another as we get closer to the event.

Very cold air will follow in the wake of the system as Canadian high
pressure moves se into the region. Most locations will fall into the
teens later Sunday night and Monday night. Highs Monday will likely
remain below freezing. Of course, things could be even colder if any
areas manage to get a fresh layer of snow on the ground. The next
clipper system Tue/Tue night is expected to stay much farther north
and cross over the Great lakes region. May be some light precip as
it drags another cold front across the region, but most impacts with
this low are expected to remain north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A large mass of MVFR ceilings is overspreading the region behind a
cold front late this morning. Given the expanse of the MVFR clouds
at this time, would not expect them to depart any time soon.
Definitely went on the pessimistic side of guidance with scattering
or lifting not until Friday morning. Northwest winds will continue
to gust well above 20kts this afternoon, but they should subside
some by sunset. Winds will remain around 10kts through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 291505
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
905 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The forecast has been updated to catch up to the cloud and
temperature trends. Much of west Kentucky will have highs greater
than forecast late this morning. Also, the latest HRRR has no
precipitation over the area through the day, so removed all
measurable PoPs. Would not rule out some patchy drizzle across the
Evansville Tri State region this afternoon, but will add that in
once it becomes more obvious.

UPDATE issued at 545 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

A well-defined cold front will move quickly southeast across our
region this morning. A small line of showers developed well ahead
of the front from kowb to khop early this morning. Cannot rule out
another small line until the front passes to our east. For most of
the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage.

Behind the front, winds will shift into the northwest and become
rather gusty today. Some gusts around 25 knots are likely. NAM and
GFS 925 mb rh progs indicate widespread low cloudiness will arrive
behind the front and persist through the afternoon. Low level cold
advection and widespread cloudiness should result in a steady or
slowly falling temperature trend this afternoon. Highs will be in
the morning. A period of sunshine prior to the arrival of low
clouds could push temps up from their 08z readings in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

The main forecast issue for tonight is when and if the low clouds
will clear out. 925 mb rh forecasts from the 00z nam and gfs are
quite moist all night, especially east of the Mississippi River.
The forecast will show partial clearing from west to east tonight,
but at a slower rate than previous forecasts. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Friday still looks mostly sunny, although there may still be some
morning low clouds in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Winds will decrease as surface high pressure reaches the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley. Highs should be quite cold considering
the amount of sun, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Friday night and Saturday...mid and high clouds will gradually
increase ahead of the next system. The low levels will be
extremely dry, which should make it very difficult for precip to
reach the ground. Will keep in a slight chance of showers in the
Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Despite the clouds, highs
should be mainly in the lower and mid 40s due to southerly winds.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Main forecast challenge in this time frame comes with the storm
system that looks to be impacting the region over the weekend,
especially Sunday. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this
time regarding precip types.

As we begin the period, split mid/upper flow pattern should be in
place...with nrn branch trof digging se into the Plains and a nearly
stationary srn branch low in place over the Baja of CA. It now looks
as though the srn branch low will feed pacific moisture into the nrn
branch...leading to fairly widespread precip shield over the mid MS
River and Ohio Valleys Saturday night and esp Sunday as sfc low
pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. As mentioned, the main
uncertainly at this time lies with precip type. The latest 00z runs
of the operational GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that
the sfc low and inverted trof will remain farther south over
MS/AL...as a 1040 mb sfc high presses south into the nrn Plains.
This would result in a colder thermal profile than we were thinking
yesterday. Snow would be the main precip type over all except our
far southern counties, with some potential for a few inches, esp
along and north/west of the Ohio River. On the other hand for
example, 00Z NAM/GEM both bring the sfc low farther north, and are
thus much warmer in their thermal profiles. For this package, will
keep much of the nrn half of the forecast area mostly snow, and go
with rain/snow for now over much of wrn KY and se MO. Again,
uncertainty is still quite high and things are likely to change one
way or another as we get closer to the event.

Very cold air will follow in the wake of the system as Canadian high
pressure moves se into the region. Most locations will fall into the
teens later Sunday night and Monday night. Highs Monday will likely
remain below freezing. Of course, things could be even colder if any
areas manage to get a fresh layer of snow on the ground. The next
clipper system Tue/Tue night is expected to stay much farther north
and cross over the Great lakes region. May be some light precip as
it drags another cold front across the region, but most impacts with
this low are expected to remain north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

The back edge of mid level clouds and sprinkles will move east of
the kevv/kowb area early this morning. Clear skies are expected for
a few hours before a strong cold front moves through around mid
morning. As the front passes, winds will shift into the
west/northwest and gust around 25 knots. A solid deck of mvfr cigs
will also arrive as the front passes. The mvfr cigs will likely be
slow to depart. In fact, the kevv/kowb sites should remain overcast
through Friday morning. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots
around sunset.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 291505
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
905 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The forecast has been updated to catch up to the cloud and
temperature trends. Much of west Kentucky will have highs greater
than forecast late this morning. Also, the latest HRRR has no
precipitation over the area through the day, so removed all
measurable PoPs. Would not rule out some patchy drizzle across the
Evansville Tri State region this afternoon, but will add that in
once it becomes more obvious.

UPDATE issued at 545 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

A well-defined cold front will move quickly southeast across our
region this morning. A small line of showers developed well ahead
of the front from kowb to khop early this morning. Cannot rule out
another small line until the front passes to our east. For most of
the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage.

Behind the front, winds will shift into the northwest and become
rather gusty today. Some gusts around 25 knots are likely. NAM and
GFS 925 mb rh progs indicate widespread low cloudiness will arrive
behind the front and persist through the afternoon. Low level cold
advection and widespread cloudiness should result in a steady or
slowly falling temperature trend this afternoon. Highs will be in
the morning. A period of sunshine prior to the arrival of low
clouds could push temps up from their 08z readings in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

The main forecast issue for tonight is when and if the low clouds
will clear out. 925 mb rh forecasts from the 00z nam and gfs are
quite moist all night, especially east of the Mississippi River.
The forecast will show partial clearing from west to east tonight,
but at a slower rate than previous forecasts. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Friday still looks mostly sunny, although there may still be some
morning low clouds in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Winds will decrease as surface high pressure reaches the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley. Highs should be quite cold considering
the amount of sun, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Friday night and Saturday...mid and high clouds will gradually
increase ahead of the next system. The low levels will be
extremely dry, which should make it very difficult for precip to
reach the ground. Will keep in a slight chance of showers in the
Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Despite the clouds, highs
should be mainly in the lower and mid 40s due to southerly winds.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Main forecast challenge in this time frame comes with the storm
system that looks to be impacting the region over the weekend,
especially Sunday. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this
time regarding precip types.

As we begin the period, split mid/upper flow pattern should be in
place...with nrn branch trof digging se into the Plains and a nearly
stationary srn branch low in place over the Baja of CA. It now looks
as though the srn branch low will feed pacific moisture into the nrn
branch...leading to fairly widespread precip shield over the mid MS
River and Ohio Valleys Saturday night and esp Sunday as sfc low
pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. As mentioned, the main
uncertainly at this time lies with precip type. The latest 00z runs
of the operational GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that
the sfc low and inverted trof will remain farther south over
MS/AL...as a 1040 mb sfc high presses south into the nrn Plains.
This would result in a colder thermal profile than we were thinking
yesterday. Snow would be the main precip type over all except our
far southern counties, with some potential for a few inches, esp
along and north/west of the Ohio River. On the other hand for
example, 00Z NAM/GEM both bring the sfc low farther north, and are
thus much warmer in their thermal profiles. For this package, will
keep much of the nrn half of the forecast area mostly snow, and go
with rain/snow for now over much of wrn KY and se MO. Again,
uncertainty is still quite high and things are likely to change one
way or another as we get closer to the event.

Very cold air will follow in the wake of the system as Canadian high
pressure moves se into the region. Most locations will fall into the
teens later Sunday night and Monday night. Highs Monday will likely
remain below freezing. Of course, things could be even colder if any
areas manage to get a fresh layer of snow on the ground. The next
clipper system Tue/Tue night is expected to stay much farther north
and cross over the Great lakes region. May be some light precip as
it drags another cold front across the region, but most impacts with
this low are expected to remain north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

The back edge of mid level clouds and sprinkles will move east of
the kevv/kowb area early this morning. Clear skies are expected for
a few hours before a strong cold front moves through around mid
morning. As the front passes, winds will shift into the
west/northwest and gust around 25 knots. A solid deck of mvfr cigs
will also arrive as the front passes. The mvfr cigs will likely be
slow to depart. In fact, the kevv/kowb sites should remain overcast
through Friday morning. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots
around sunset.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KPAH 291144
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

A well-defined cold front will move quickly southeast across our
region this morning. A small line of showers developed well ahead
of the front from kowb to khop early this morning. Cannot rule out
another small line until the front passes to our east. For most of
the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage.

Behind the front, winds will shift into the northwest and become
rather gusty today. Some gusts around 25 knots are likely. NAM and
GFS 925 mb rh progs indicate widespread low cloudiness will arrive
behind the front and persist through the afternoon. Low level cold
advection and widespread cloudiness should result in a steady or
slowly falling temperature trend this afternoon. Highs will be in
the morning. A period of sunshine prior to the arrival of low
clouds could push temps up from their 08z readings in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

The main forecast issue for tonight is when and if the low clouds
will clear out. 925 mb rh forecasts from the 00z nam and gfs are
quite moist all night, especially east of the Mississippi River.
The forecast will show partial clearing from west to east tonight,
but at a slower rate than previous forecasts. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Friday still looks mostly sunny, although there may still be some
morning low clouds in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Winds will decrease as surface high pressure reaches the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley. Highs should be quite cold considering
the amount of sun, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Friday night and Saturday...mid and high clouds will gradually
increase ahead of the next system. The low levels will be
extremely dry, which should make it very difficult for precip to
reach the ground. Will keep in a slight chance of showers in the
Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Despite the clouds, highs
should be mainly in the lower and mid 40s due to southerly winds.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Main forecast challenge in this time frame comes with the storm
system that looks to be impacting the region over the weekend,
especially Sunday. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this
time regarding precip types.

As we begin the period, split mid/upper flow pattern should be in
place...with nrn branch trof digging se into the Plains and a nearly
stationary srn branch low in place over the Baja of CA. It now looks
as though the srn branch low will feed pacific moisture into the nrn
branch...leading to fairly widespread precip shield over the mid MS
River and Ohio Valleys Saturday night and esp Sunday as sfc low
pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. As mentioned, the main
uncertainly at this time lies with precip type. The latest 00z runs
of the operational GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that
the sfc low and inverted trof will remain farther south over
MS/AL...as a 1040 mb sfc high presses south into the nrn Plains.
This would result in a colder thermal profile than we were thinking
yesterday. Snow would be the main precip type over all except our
far southern counties, with some potential for a few inches, esp
along and north/west of the Ohio River. On the other hand for
example, 00Z NAM/GEM both bring the sfc low farther north, and are
thus much warmer in their thermal profiles. For this package, will
keep much of the nrn half of the forecast area mostly snow, and go
with rain/snow for now over much of wrn KY and se MO. Again,
uncertainty is still quite high and things are likely to change one
way or another as we get closer to the event.

Very cold air will follow in the wake of the system as Canadian high
pressure moves se into the region. Most locations will fall into the
teens later Sunday night and Monday night. Highs Monday will likely
remain below freezing. Of course, things could be even colder if any
areas manage to get a fresh layer of snow on the ground. The next
clipper system Tue/Tue night is expected to stay much farther north
and cross over the Great lakes region. May be some light precip as
it drags another cold front across the region, but most impacts with
this low are expected to remain north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

The back edge of mid level clouds and sprinkles will move east of
the kevv/kowb area early this morning. Clear skies are expected for
a few hours before a strong cold front moves through around mid
morning. As the front passes, winds will shift into the
west/northwest and gust around 25 knots. A solid deck of mvfr cigs
will also arrive as the front passes. The mvfr cigs will likely be
slow to depart. In fact, the kevv/kowb sites should remain overcast
through Friday morning. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots
around sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KPAH 290856
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

A well-defined cold front will move quickly southeast across our
region this morning. A small line of showers developed well ahead
of the front from kowb to khop early this morning. Cannot rule out
another small line until the front passes to our east. For most of
the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage.

Behind the front, winds will shift into the northwest and become
rather gusty today. Some gusts around 25 knots are likely. NAM and
GFS 925 mb rh progs indicate widespread low cloudiness will arrive
behind the front and persist through the afternoon. Low level cold
advection and widespread cloudiness should result in a steady or
slowly falling temperature trend this afternoon. Highs will be in
the morning. A period of sunshine prior to the arrival of low
clouds could push temps up from their 08z readings in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

The main forecast issue for tonight is when and if the low clouds
will clear out. 925 mb rh forecasts from the 00z nam and gfs are
quite moist all night, especially east of the Mississippi River.
The forecast will show partial clearing from west to east tonight,
but at a slower rate than previous forecasts. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Friday still looks mostly sunny, although there may still be some
morning low clouds in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Winds will decrease as surface high pressure reaches the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley. Highs should be quite cold considering
the amount of sun, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Friday night and Saturday...mid and high clouds will gradually
increase ahead of the next system. The low levels will be
extremely dry, which should make it very difficult for precip to
reach the ground. Will keep in a slight chance of showers in the
Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Despite the clouds, highs
should be mainly in the lower and mid 40s due to southerly winds.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Main forecast challenge in this time frame comes with the storm
system that looks to be impacting the region over the weekend,
especially Sunday. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this
time regarding precip types.

As we begin the period, split mid/upper flow pattern should be in
place...with nrn branch trof digging se into the Plains and a nearly
stationary srn branch low in place over the Baja of CA. It now looks
as though the srn branch low will feed pacific moisture into the nrn
branch...leading to fairly widespread precip shield over the mid MS
River and Ohio Valleys Saturday night and esp Sunday as sfc low
pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. As mentioned, the main
uncertainly at this time lies with precip type. The latest 00z runs
of the operational GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that
the sfc low and inverted trof will remain farther south over
MS/AL...as a 1040 mb sfc high presses south into the nrn Plains.
This would result in a colder thermal profile than we were thinking
yesterday. Snow would be the main precip type over all except our
far southern counties, with some potential for a few inches, esp
along and north/west of the Ohio River. On the other hand for
example, 00Z NAM/GEM both bring the sfc low farther north, and are
thus much warmer in their thermal profiles. For this package, will
keep much of the nrn half of the forecast area mostly snow, and go
with rain/snow for now over much of wrn KY and se MO. Again,
uncertainty is still quite high and things are likely to change one
way or another as we get closer to the event.

Very cold air will follow in the wake of the system as Canadian high
pressure moves se into the region. Most locations will fall into the
teens later Sunday night and Monday night. Highs Monday will likely
remain below freezing. Of course, things could be even colder if any
areas manage to get a fresh layer of snow on the ground. The next
clipper system Tue/Tue night is expected to stay much farther north
and cross over the Great lakes region. May be some light precip as
it drags another cold front across the region, but most impacts with
this low are expected to remain north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Widespread mid level cloudiness along and ahead of a cold front
will exit this morning. VFR cigs prior to the frontal passage are
expected to give way to a deck of MVFR clouds in its wake. Toward
the end of the period cigs may become VFR again at KCGI/KPAH.
Southerly winds 10-15 knots will veer around to the northwest at
12-15 knots gusting to 22-25 knots with the frontal passage
starting around 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...MY/JAP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 290856
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

A well-defined cold front will move quickly southeast across our
region this morning. A small line of showers developed well ahead
of the front from kowb to khop early this morning. Cannot rule out
another small line until the front passes to our east. For most of
the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage.

Behind the front, winds will shift into the northwest and become
rather gusty today. Some gusts around 25 knots are likely. NAM and
GFS 925 mb rh progs indicate widespread low cloudiness will arrive
behind the front and persist through the afternoon. Low level cold
advection and widespread cloudiness should result in a steady or
slowly falling temperature trend this afternoon. Highs will be in
the morning. A period of sunshine prior to the arrival of low
clouds could push temps up from their 08z readings in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

The main forecast issue for tonight is when and if the low clouds
will clear out. 925 mb rh forecasts from the 00z nam and gfs are
quite moist all night, especially east of the Mississippi River.
The forecast will show partial clearing from west to east tonight,
but at a slower rate than previous forecasts. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Friday still looks mostly sunny, although there may still be some
morning low clouds in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Winds will decrease as surface high pressure reaches the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley. Highs should be quite cold considering
the amount of sun, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Friday night and Saturday...mid and high clouds will gradually
increase ahead of the next system. The low levels will be
extremely dry, which should make it very difficult for precip to
reach the ground. Will keep in a slight chance of showers in the
Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Despite the clouds, highs
should be mainly in the lower and mid 40s due to southerly winds.

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Main forecast challenge in this time frame comes with the storm
system that looks to be impacting the region over the weekend,
especially Sunday. Forecast confidence remains fairly low at this
time regarding precip types.

As we begin the period, split mid/upper flow pattern should be in
place...with nrn branch trof digging se into the Plains and a nearly
stationary srn branch low in place over the Baja of CA. It now looks
as though the srn branch low will feed pacific moisture into the nrn
branch...leading to fairly widespread precip shield over the mid MS
River and Ohio Valleys Saturday night and esp Sunday as sfc low
pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. As mentioned, the main
uncertainly at this time lies with precip type. The latest 00z runs
of the operational GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement that
the sfc low and inverted trof will remain farther south over
MS/AL...as a 1040 mb sfc high presses south into the nrn Plains.
This would result in a colder thermal profile than we were thinking
yesterday. Snow would be the main precip type over all except our
far southern counties, with some potential for a few inches, esp
along and north/west of the Ohio River. On the other hand for
example, 00Z NAM/GEM both bring the sfc low farther north, and are
thus much warmer in their thermal profiles. For this package, will
keep much of the nrn half of the forecast area mostly snow, and go
with rain/snow for now over much of wrn KY and se MO. Again,
uncertainty is still quite high and things are likely to change one
way or another as we get closer to the event.

Very cold air will follow in the wake of the system as Canadian high
pressure moves se into the region. Most locations will fall into the
teens later Sunday night and Monday night. Highs Monday will likely
remain below freezing. Of course, things could be even colder if any
areas manage to get a fresh layer of snow on the ground. The next
clipper system Tue/Tue night is expected to stay much farther north
and cross over the Great lakes region. May be some light precip as
it drags another cold front across the region, but most impacts with
this low are expected to remain north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Widespread mid level cloudiness along and ahead of a cold front
will exit this morning. VFR cigs prior to the frontal passage are
expected to give way to a deck of MVFR clouds in its wake. Toward
the end of the period cigs may become VFR again at KCGI/KPAH.
Southerly winds 10-15 knots will veer around to the northwest at
12-15 knots gusting to 22-25 knots with the frontal passage
starting around 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...MY/JAP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 290529 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1129 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Clouds will increase across the PAH forecast area tonight with the
approach of a cold front. Models are in very good agreement on the
track of the surface low, bringing it from southeast Iowa at 06z
Thursday to southern lower Michigan by 18z Thursday, which is also
the time frame for the frontal passage across our region. ECMWF
is the "wettest" of the models, and it only brings the hundredth
line into southern Illinois by 12z, then both GFS and ECMWF bring
the hundredth line east of the Mississippi through 18z, quickly
moving east after 18z. NAM keeps us dry altogether. Continued with
some low precip chances across our northeast counties for light
showers late tonight, then low chances across our counties east of
the Mississippi River Thursday morning. Kept some slight chance
pops across our far eastern counties early Thursday afternoon, but
even that may be too much. Overall no significant precip is
expected with the frontal passage. However, behind the front we
will see a pretty good cool down. It will also be a bit breezy
along and behind the front Thursday, gradually tapering off
Thursday night.

It will be quite mild tonight into Thursday, with lows tonight in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to what our normal
highs should be. On Thursday, highs will be in the middle 40s north
to lower 50s south. High pressure will slide across the upper and
middle Mississippi valley Thursday night into Friday, keeping our
region in northerly flow.  Friday highs will only be in the middle
30s to around 40 degrees Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night
and Friday night will be near seasonal in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Still having lots of fun with the storm system to impact the region
late Saturday through Sunday night. The medium range models continue
to disagree even on the basic pattern/timing, let alone the
temperature profiles and precipitation type. We will have to
continue to watch the model evolution through the end of the week to
hopefully get a more concise model signal.

The 12Z ECMWF has swapped over much closer to the GFS solution, with
even more and quicker impact of a significant surface high.
Unfortunately, it continues to be warmer in the low-levels than the
GFS, which gives cause to hold back on a snow forecast. The 12Z GEM
is offering a totally different solution than we`ve seen in the last
few days.

The 12Z GEM really develops a storm system over the northern Plains
and upper Midwest, as energy diving out of Canada interacts with a
low-level baroclinic zone. Given that there should be a decent
baroclinic zone and energy is dropping into a mean trough, the GEM
is quite plausible. It would result in a slower progression through
the area, and rain early, with better snow possibilities Sunday
night into Monday.

It is too early to attempt to latch onto one solution or another.
This forecast will trend a bit cooler, with an increased snow
probability. Given the thermal structure of the ECMWF and GFS, the
precipitation will be falling as snow and melting in the lowest
levels, so the rain/snow line will be highly dependent on the near
surface temperatures. Therefore, there are some minor snow
accumulations across the north late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning, and again throughout the area Sunday night, as the real
cold air surges across the area. Some potential still exists for an
inch or two of snowfall, mainly across the northern half of the
area.

Cold surface high pressure will dominate the region Monday and
Tuesday. South winds will return on Wednesday, and temperatures will
begin to modify. It appears that any significant precipitation
Wednesday will be stuck over the Gulf States as the remnants of the
southwest U.S. upper low push east into the northern Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Cloudiness will continue to increase and lower with the approach
and passage of a frontal system. VFR cigs prior to the frontal
passage are expected to become MVFR in its wake. Toward the end of
the period cigs may become VFR again at KCGI/KPAH. Southerly winds
10-15 knots will veer around to the northwest at 12-15 knots
gusting to 22-25 knots with the frontal passage starting around
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 290529 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1129 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Clouds will increase across the PAH forecast area tonight with the
approach of a cold front. Models are in very good agreement on the
track of the surface low, bringing it from southeast Iowa at 06z
Thursday to southern lower Michigan by 18z Thursday, which is also
the time frame for the frontal passage across our region. ECMWF
is the "wettest" of the models, and it only brings the hundredth
line into southern Illinois by 12z, then both GFS and ECMWF bring
the hundredth line east of the Mississippi through 18z, quickly
moving east after 18z. NAM keeps us dry altogether. Continued with
some low precip chances across our northeast counties for light
showers late tonight, then low chances across our counties east of
the Mississippi River Thursday morning. Kept some slight chance
pops across our far eastern counties early Thursday afternoon, but
even that may be too much. Overall no significant precip is
expected with the frontal passage. However, behind the front we
will see a pretty good cool down. It will also be a bit breezy
along and behind the front Thursday, gradually tapering off
Thursday night.

It will be quite mild tonight into Thursday, with lows tonight in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to what our normal
highs should be. On Thursday, highs will be in the middle 40s north
to lower 50s south. High pressure will slide across the upper and
middle Mississippi valley Thursday night into Friday, keeping our
region in northerly flow.  Friday highs will only be in the middle
30s to around 40 degrees Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night
and Friday night will be near seasonal in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Still having lots of fun with the storm system to impact the region
late Saturday through Sunday night. The medium range models continue
to disagree even on the basic pattern/timing, let alone the
temperature profiles and precipitation type. We will have to
continue to watch the model evolution through the end of the week to
hopefully get a more concise model signal.

The 12Z ECMWF has swapped over much closer to the GFS solution, with
even more and quicker impact of a significant surface high.
Unfortunately, it continues to be warmer in the low-levels than the
GFS, which gives cause to hold back on a snow forecast. The 12Z GEM
is offering a totally different solution than we`ve seen in the last
few days.

The 12Z GEM really develops a storm system over the northern Plains
and upper Midwest, as energy diving out of Canada interacts with a
low-level baroclinic zone. Given that there should be a decent
baroclinic zone and energy is dropping into a mean trough, the GEM
is quite plausible. It would result in a slower progression through
the area, and rain early, with better snow possibilities Sunday
night into Monday.

It is too early to attempt to latch onto one solution or another.
This forecast will trend a bit cooler, with an increased snow
probability. Given the thermal structure of the ECMWF and GFS, the
precipitation will be falling as snow and melting in the lowest
levels, so the rain/snow line will be highly dependent on the near
surface temperatures. Therefore, there are some minor snow
accumulations across the north late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning, and again throughout the area Sunday night, as the real
cold air surges across the area. Some potential still exists for an
inch or two of snowfall, mainly across the northern half of the
area.

Cold surface high pressure will dominate the region Monday and
Tuesday. South winds will return on Wednesday, and temperatures will
begin to modify. It appears that any significant precipitation
Wednesday will be stuck over the Gulf States as the remnants of the
southwest U.S. upper low push east into the northern Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Cloudiness will continue to increase and lower with the approach
and passage of a frontal system. VFR cigs prior to the frontal
passage are expected to become MVFR in its wake. Toward the end of
the period cigs may become VFR again at KCGI/KPAH. Southerly winds
10-15 knots will veer around to the northwest at 12-15 knots
gusting to 22-25 knots with the frontal passage starting around
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP









000
FXUS63 KPAH 282356 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Clouds will increase across the PAH forecast area tonight with the
approach of a cold front. Models are in very good agreement on the
track of the surface low, bringing it from southeast Iowa at 06z
Thursday to southern lower Michigan by 18z Thursday, which is also
the time frame for the frontal passage across our region. ECMWF
is the "wettest" of the models, and it only brings the hundredth
line into southern Illinois by 12z, then both GFS and ECMWF bring
the hundredth line east of the Mississippi through 18z, quickly
moving east after 18z. NAM keeps us dry altogether. Continued with
some low precip chances across our northeast counties for light
showers late tonight, then low chances across our counties east of
the Mississippi River Thursday morning. Kept some slight chance
pops across our far eastern counties early Thursday afternoon, but
even that may be too much. Overall no significant precip is
expected with the frontal passage. However, behind the front we
will see a pretty good cool down. It will also be a bit breezy
along and behind the front Thursday, gradually tapering off
Thursday night.

It will be quite mild tonight into Thursday, with lows tonight in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to what our normal
highs should be. On Thursday, highs will be in the middle 40s north
to lower 50s south. High pressure will slide across the upper and
middle Mississippi valley Thursday night into Friday, keeping our
region in northerly flow.  Friday highs will only be in the middle
30s to around 40 degrees Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night
and Friday night will be near seasonal in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Still having lots of fun with the storm system to impact the region
late Saturday through Sunday night. The medium range models continue
to disagree even on the basic pattern/timing, let alone the
temperature profiles and precipitation type. We will have to
continue to watch the model evolution through the end of the week to
hopefully get a more concise model signal.

The 12Z ECMWF has swapped over much closer to the GFS solution, with
even more and quicker impact of a significant surface high.
Unfortunately, it continues to be warmer in the low-levels than the
GFS, which gives cause to hold back on a snow forecast. The 12Z GEM
is offering a totally different solution than we`ve seen in the last
few days.

The 12Z GEM really develops a storm system over the northern Plains
and upper Midwest, as energy diving out of Canada interacts with a
low-level baroclinic zone. Given that there should be a decent
baroclinic zone and energy is dropping into a mean trough, the GEM
is quite plausible. It would result in a slower progression through
the area, and rain early, with better snow possibilities Sunday
night into Monday.

It is too early to attempt to latch onto one solution or another.
This forecast will trend a bit cooler, with an increased snow
probability. Given the thermal structure of the ECMWF and GFS, the
precipitation will be falling as snow and melting in the lowest
levels, so the rain/snow line will be highly dependent on the near
surface temperatures. Therefore, there are some minor snow
accumulations across the north late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning, and again throughout the area Sunday night, as the real
cold air surges across the area. Some potential still exists for an
inch or two of snowfall, mainly across the northern half of the
area.

Cold surface high pressure will dominate the region Monday and
Tuesday. South winds will return on Wednesday, and temperatures will
begin to modify. It appears that any significant precipitation
Wednesday will be stuck over the Gulf States as the remnants of the
southwest U.S. upper low push east into the northern Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 556 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Cloudiness will continue to increase and lower with the approach
and passage of a frontal system. VFR cigs prior to the frontal
passage are expected to become MVFR in its wake. Toward the end of
the period cigs may become VFR again at KCGI/KPAH. Southerly winds
AOB 10 knots will veer around to the northwest at 12-14 knots
gusting to 22-24 knots with the frontal passage starting around
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 282356 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Clouds will increase across the PAH forecast area tonight with the
approach of a cold front. Models are in very good agreement on the
track of the surface low, bringing it from southeast Iowa at 06z
Thursday to southern lower Michigan by 18z Thursday, which is also
the time frame for the frontal passage across our region. ECMWF
is the "wettest" of the models, and it only brings the hundredth
line into southern Illinois by 12z, then both GFS and ECMWF bring
the hundredth line east of the Mississippi through 18z, quickly
moving east after 18z. NAM keeps us dry altogether. Continued with
some low precip chances across our northeast counties for light
showers late tonight, then low chances across our counties east of
the Mississippi River Thursday morning. Kept some slight chance
pops across our far eastern counties early Thursday afternoon, but
even that may be too much. Overall no significant precip is
expected with the frontal passage. However, behind the front we
will see a pretty good cool down. It will also be a bit breezy
along and behind the front Thursday, gradually tapering off
Thursday night.

It will be quite mild tonight into Thursday, with lows tonight in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to what our normal
highs should be. On Thursday, highs will be in the middle 40s north
to lower 50s south. High pressure will slide across the upper and
middle Mississippi valley Thursday night into Friday, keeping our
region in northerly flow.  Friday highs will only be in the middle
30s to around 40 degrees Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night
and Friday night will be near seasonal in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Still having lots of fun with the storm system to impact the region
late Saturday through Sunday night. The medium range models continue
to disagree even on the basic pattern/timing, let alone the
temperature profiles and precipitation type. We will have to
continue to watch the model evolution through the end of the week to
hopefully get a more concise model signal.

The 12Z ECMWF has swapped over much closer to the GFS solution, with
even more and quicker impact of a significant surface high.
Unfortunately, it continues to be warmer in the low-levels than the
GFS, which gives cause to hold back on a snow forecast. The 12Z GEM
is offering a totally different solution than we`ve seen in the last
few days.

The 12Z GEM really develops a storm system over the northern Plains
and upper Midwest, as energy diving out of Canada interacts with a
low-level baroclinic zone. Given that there should be a decent
baroclinic zone and energy is dropping into a mean trough, the GEM
is quite plausible. It would result in a slower progression through
the area, and rain early, with better snow possibilities Sunday
night into Monday.

It is too early to attempt to latch onto one solution or another.
This forecast will trend a bit cooler, with an increased snow
probability. Given the thermal structure of the ECMWF and GFS, the
precipitation will be falling as snow and melting in the lowest
levels, so the rain/snow line will be highly dependent on the near
surface temperatures. Therefore, there are some minor snow
accumulations across the north late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning, and again throughout the area Sunday night, as the real
cold air surges across the area. Some potential still exists for an
inch or two of snowfall, mainly across the northern half of the
area.

Cold surface high pressure will dominate the region Monday and
Tuesday. South winds will return on Wednesday, and temperatures will
begin to modify. It appears that any significant precipitation
Wednesday will be stuck over the Gulf States as the remnants of the
southwest U.S. upper low push east into the northern Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 556 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Cloudiness will continue to increase and lower with the approach
and passage of a frontal system. VFR cigs prior to the frontal
passage are expected to become MVFR in its wake. Toward the end of
the period cigs may become VFR again at KCGI/KPAH. Southerly winds
AOB 10 knots will veer around to the northwest at 12-14 knots
gusting to 22-24 knots with the frontal passage starting around
14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 282054
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Clouds will increase across the PAH forecast area tonight with the
approach of a cold front. Models are in very good agreement on the
track of the surface low, bringing it from southeast Iowa at 06z
Thursday to southern lower Michigan by 18z Thursday, which is also
the time frame for the frontal passage across our region. ECMWF
is the "wettest" of the models, and it only brings the hundredth
line into southern Illinois by 12z, then both GFS and ECMWF bring
the hundredth line east of the Mississippi through 18z, quickly
moving east after 18z. NAM keeps us dry altogether. Continued with
some low precip chances across our northeast counties for light
showers late tonight, then low chances across our counties east of
the Mississippi River Thursday morning. Kept some slight chance
pops across our far eastern counties early Thursday afternoon, but
even that may be too much. Overall no significant precip is
expected with the frontal passage. However, behind the front we
will see a pretty good cool down. It will also be a bit breezy
along and behind the front Thursday, gradually tapering off
Thursday night.

It will be quite mild tonight into Thursday, with lows tonight in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to what our normal
highs should be. On Thursday, highs will be in the middle 40s north
to lower 50s south. High pressure will slide across the upper and
middle Mississippi valley Thursday night into Friday, keeping our
region in northerly flow.  Friday highs will only be in the middle
30s to around 40 degrees Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night
and Friday night will be near seasonal in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Still having lots of fun with the storm system to impact the region
late Saturday through Sunday night. The medium range models continue
to disagree even on the basic pattern/timing, let alone the
temperature profiles and precipitation type. We will have to
continue to watch the model evolution through the end of the week to
hopefully get a more concise model signal.

The 12Z ECMWF has swapped over much closer to the GFS solution, with
even more and quicker impact of a significant surface high.
Unfortunately, it continues to be warmer in the low-levels than the
GFS, which gives cause to hold back on a snow forecast. The 12Z GEM
is offering a totally different solution than we`ve seen in the last
few days.

The 12Z GEM really develops a storm system over the northern Plains
and upper Midwest, as energy diving out of Canada interacts with a
low-level baroclinic zone. Given that there should be a decent
baroclinic zone and energy is dropping into a mean trough, the GEM
is quite plausible. It would result in a slower progression through
the area, and rain early, with better snow possibilities Sunday
night into Monday.

It is too early to attempt to latch onto one solution or another.
This forecast will trend a bit cooler, with an increased snow
probability. Given the thermal structure of the ECMWF and GFS, the
precipitation will be falling as snow and melting in the lowest
levels, so the rain/snow line will be highly dependent on the near
surface temperatures. Therefore, there are some minor snow
accumulations across the north late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning, and again throughout the area Sunday night, as the real
cold air surges across the area. Some potential still exists for an
inch or two of snowfall, mainly across the northern half of the
area.

Cold surface high pressure will dominate the region Monday and
Tuesday. South winds will return on Wednesday, and temperatures will
begin to modify. It appears that any significant precipitation
Wednesday will be stuck over the Gulf States as the remnants of the
southwest U.S. upper low push east into the northern Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper-level storm system and surface low will pass eastward
through northern Illinois and Indiana overnight into Thursday
morning. A trailing cold front will pass eastward through our area
during the morning hours. Ahead of it winds will gradually veer
and increase from southeast this afternoon and evening to
southwest around sunrise.

All available guidance shows a rapid increase in low-level
moisture/clouds (IFR or lower ceilings) immediately ahead of the
cold front, but this seems to be overdone. There is a very strong
signal for lower MVFR ceilings at all sites behind the cold front.
IFR ceilings are not out of the question at KEVV and KOWB.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS









000
FXUS63 KPAH 282054
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Clouds will increase across the PAH forecast area tonight with the
approach of a cold front. Models are in very good agreement on the
track of the surface low, bringing it from southeast Iowa at 06z
Thursday to southern lower Michigan by 18z Thursday, which is also
the time frame for the frontal passage across our region. ECMWF
is the "wettest" of the models, and it only brings the hundredth
line into southern Illinois by 12z, then both GFS and ECMWF bring
the hundredth line east of the Mississippi through 18z, quickly
moving east after 18z. NAM keeps us dry altogether. Continued with
some low precip chances across our northeast counties for light
showers late tonight, then low chances across our counties east of
the Mississippi River Thursday morning. Kept some slight chance
pops across our far eastern counties early Thursday afternoon, but
even that may be too much. Overall no significant precip is
expected with the frontal passage. However, behind the front we
will see a pretty good cool down. It will also be a bit breezy
along and behind the front Thursday, gradually tapering off
Thursday night.

It will be quite mild tonight into Thursday, with lows tonight in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to what our normal
highs should be. On Thursday, highs will be in the middle 40s north
to lower 50s south. High pressure will slide across the upper and
middle Mississippi valley Thursday night into Friday, keeping our
region in northerly flow.  Friday highs will only be in the middle
30s to around 40 degrees Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night
and Friday night will be near seasonal in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Still having lots of fun with the storm system to impact the region
late Saturday through Sunday night. The medium range models continue
to disagree even on the basic pattern/timing, let alone the
temperature profiles and precipitation type. We will have to
continue to watch the model evolution through the end of the week to
hopefully get a more concise model signal.

The 12Z ECMWF has swapped over much closer to the GFS solution, with
even more and quicker impact of a significant surface high.
Unfortunately, it continues to be warmer in the low-levels than the
GFS, which gives cause to hold back on a snow forecast. The 12Z GEM
is offering a totally different solution than we`ve seen in the last
few days.

The 12Z GEM really develops a storm system over the northern Plains
and upper Midwest, as energy diving out of Canada interacts with a
low-level baroclinic zone. Given that there should be a decent
baroclinic zone and energy is dropping into a mean trough, the GEM
is quite plausible. It would result in a slower progression through
the area, and rain early, with better snow possibilities Sunday
night into Monday.

It is too early to attempt to latch onto one solution or another.
This forecast will trend a bit cooler, with an increased snow
probability. Given the thermal structure of the ECMWF and GFS, the
precipitation will be falling as snow and melting in the lowest
levels, so the rain/snow line will be highly dependent on the near
surface temperatures. Therefore, there are some minor snow
accumulations across the north late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning, and again throughout the area Sunday night, as the real
cold air surges across the area. Some potential still exists for an
inch or two of snowfall, mainly across the northern half of the
area.

Cold surface high pressure will dominate the region Monday and
Tuesday. South winds will return on Wednesday, and temperatures will
begin to modify. It appears that any significant precipitation
Wednesday will be stuck over the Gulf States as the remnants of the
southwest U.S. upper low push east into the northern Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper-level storm system and surface low will pass eastward
through northern Illinois and Indiana overnight into Thursday
morning. A trailing cold front will pass eastward through our area
during the morning hours. Ahead of it winds will gradually veer
and increase from southeast this afternoon and evening to
southwest around sunrise.

All available guidance shows a rapid increase in low-level
moisture/clouds (IFR or lower ceilings) immediately ahead of the
cold front, but this seems to be overdone. There is a very strong
signal for lower MVFR ceilings at all sites behind the cold front.
IFR ceilings are not out of the question at KEVV and KOWB.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 281755
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper-level storm system and surface low will pass eastward
through northern Illinois and Indiana overnight into Thursday
morning. A trailing cold front will pass eastward through our area
during the morning hours. Ahead of it winds will gradually veer
and increase from southeast this afternoon and evening to
southwest around sunrise.

All available guidance shows a rapid increase in low-level
moisture/clouds (IFR or lower ceilings) immediately ahead of the
cold front, but this seems to be overdone. There is a very strong
signal for lower MVFR ceilings at all sites behind the cold front.
IFR ceilings are not out of the question at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281755
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper-level storm system and surface low will pass eastward
through northern Illinois and Indiana overnight into Thursday
morning. A trailing cold front will pass eastward through our area
during the morning hours. Ahead of it winds will gradually veer
and increase from southeast this afternoon and evening to
southwest around sunrise.

All available guidance shows a rapid increase in low-level
moisture/clouds (IFR or lower ceilings) immediately ahead of the
cold front, but this seems to be overdone. There is a very strong
signal for lower MVFR ceilings at all sites behind the cold front.
IFR ceilings are not out of the question at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...DRS








000
FXUS63 KPAH 281130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

The small patch of MVFR ceilings in the kowb/kevv areas has all but
disappeared as of 11z. VFR conditions should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
late today. Cigs will lower tonight, but should still remain at or
above 10k feet.

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to around
10 knots this afternoon. Gusty surface winds and/or llws are
possible late tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to
around 50 knots at 5k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY









000
FXUS63 KPAH 281130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

The small patch of MVFR ceilings in the kowb/kevv areas has all but
disappeared as of 11z. VFR conditions should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
late today. Cigs will lower tonight, but should still remain at or
above 10k feet.

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to around
10 knots this afternoon. Gusty surface winds and/or llws are
possible late tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to
around 50 knots at 5k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KPAH 280916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A small patch of MVFR ceilings will hang tough in the kowb/kevv
areas til around 12z. Otherwise, clearing has occurred at all taf
sites. VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds later today. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots by
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY/RJP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 280916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A small patch of MVFR ceilings will hang tough in the kowb/kevv
areas til around 12z. Otherwise, clearing has occurred at all taf
sites. VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds later today. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots by
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY/RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Gradual clearing continues tonight, but MVFR ceilings remain
centered from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky. Expect the slow clearing trend to continue overnight, with
clearing at KEVV and KOWB anticipated before sunrise. Once skies
clear, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds on Wednesday. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast to east winds
tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Gradual clearing continues tonight, but MVFR ceilings remain
centered from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky. Expect the slow clearing trend to continue overnight, with
clearing at KEVV and KOWB anticipated before sunrise. Once skies
clear, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds on Wednesday. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast to east winds
tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 272340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Low VFR and MVFR ceilings centered on the Wabash River Valley should
continue a trend of gradual erosion from the southwest and northeast
through the evening. Current thinking is that KCGI and KPAH will be
mainly clear by early evening, with clearing at KEVV and KOWB around
midnight. Once skies clear, VFR conditions should prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
on Wednesday. As high pressure shifts east of the area, light north
to east winds tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to
near 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 272340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Low VFR and MVFR ceilings centered on the Wabash River Valley should
continue a trend of gradual erosion from the southwest and northeast
through the evening. Current thinking is that KCGI and KPAH will be
mainly clear by early evening, with clearing at KEVV and KOWB around
midnight. Once skies clear, VFR conditions should prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
on Wednesday. As high pressure shifts east of the area, light north
to east winds tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to
near 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271903
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
103 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problemmatic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Stubborn mainly MVFR decks remain over the bulk of the FA along/east
of the Mississippi this pm, even as high pressure starts to work
in from the west with its drier air intrusion. As this transition
gradually occurs, we`ll see KCGI and KPAH clear this evening,
while KOWB and KEVV may take well into the night. Tmrw sees winds
try to turn around again later in the planning period, with selys
developing and some high clouds increasing in advance of a
developing system upstream.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 271903
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
103 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problemmatic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Stubborn mainly MVFR decks remain over the bulk of the FA along/east
of the Mississippi this pm, even as high pressure starts to work
in from the west with its drier air intrusion. As this transition
gradually occurs, we`ll see KCGI and KPAH clear this evening,
while KOWB and KEVV may take well into the night. Tmrw sees winds
try to turn around again later in the planning period, with selys
developing and some high clouds increasing in advance of a
developing system upstream.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








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