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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261118 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 15-17Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTH NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...SMITH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 261118 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 15-17Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTH NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...SMITH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 260737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 260737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 251135 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 00-05Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10
KNOTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH/FIRE WX
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 251135 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 00-05Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10
KNOTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH/FIRE WX
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 251135 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 00-05Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10
KNOTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH/FIRE WX
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 241930
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A KCGI/KOWB LINE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS. CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
ACTIVITY DEPARTING TO THE NE 12-15Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MAINLY MVFR. CONTINUE TO HANDLE CHANCES WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
NOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 241930
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A KCGI/KOWB LINE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS. CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
ACTIVITY DEPARTING TO THE NE 12-15Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MAINLY MVFR. CONTINUE TO HANDLE CHANCES WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
NOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 241127
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.

FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRANCE OVER A TAF SITE AFTER 06Z. MFVR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 241127
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.

FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRANCE OVER A TAF SITE AFTER 06Z. MFVR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 241127
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.

FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRANCE OVER A TAF SITE AFTER 06Z. MFVR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 241127
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.

FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRANCE OVER A TAF SITE AFTER 06Z. MFVR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 240800
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.

FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND CEILINGS MAY DESCEND TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS IN THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 240800
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.

FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND CEILINGS MAY DESCEND TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS IN THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 240440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND CEILINGS MAY DESCEND TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS IN THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 240440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND CEILINGS MAY DESCEND TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS IN THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 240440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND CEILINGS MAY DESCEND TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS IN THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 232332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KPAH
AND KCGI...BUT THEY WOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 232332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KPAH
AND KCGI...BUT THEY WOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 232332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KPAH
AND KCGI...BUT THEY WOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 232332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KPAH
AND KCGI...BUT THEY WOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231931
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...KH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 231931
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...KH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...KH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...KH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 231849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...KH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 231849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...KH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231649
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WITH AN ISOLATED UPPER 30S STARTING TO SHOW UP IN POCKETS OF
SE IL. SOME MID/HIGH DECK CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT IMPEDING THE TEMP
FALL FOR NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE HEADLINE EFFECTIVE FOR
FROST POTENTIAL THRU 8 AM. WE`LL LEAVE AS IS...PER COLLAB EFFORTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ONLY STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. COULD SEE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
DIP INTO UPPER 30S AGAIN...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING INCOMING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT
EASTERLIES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACH...SO WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A 2ND PERIOD FROST ADVISORY AND ALLOW A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THIS
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT (OR NOT).

MOISTURE POOLING JUST UPSTREAM LOOKS TO SPREAD OVERTOP THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED INCOMING POPS WILL
EXPAND AGGRESSIVELY AND SPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECT FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
MISSOURI...AND WE START TO WARM SECTOR.

HIGH POP AXIS SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY BUT STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...SEE SPC
SLGT RISK SVR FOR SAT-SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

BEYOND THIS JUNCTURE IS WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. IT ALSO OPENS UP THE
UPPER LOW AND TRACKS IT DIRECTLY TOWARD OUR CWA ON TUESDAY WHILE
GENERATING GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGES IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OVER OUR AREA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER/SURFACE
LOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING OUR REGION DRY THROUGH ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

APPARENTLY THE SUPERBLEND MODEL IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POP GRIDS
EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 231649
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WITH AN ISOLATED UPPER 30S STARTING TO SHOW UP IN POCKETS OF
SE IL. SOME MID/HIGH DECK CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT IMPEDING THE TEMP
FALL FOR NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE HEADLINE EFFECTIVE FOR
FROST POTENTIAL THRU 8 AM. WE`LL LEAVE AS IS...PER COLLAB EFFORTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ONLY STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. COULD SEE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
DIP INTO UPPER 30S AGAIN...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING INCOMING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT
EASTERLIES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACH...SO WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A 2ND PERIOD FROST ADVISORY AND ALLOW A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THIS
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT (OR NOT).

MOISTURE POOLING JUST UPSTREAM LOOKS TO SPREAD OVERTOP THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED INCOMING POPS WILL
EXPAND AGGRESSIVELY AND SPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECT FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
MISSOURI...AND WE START TO WARM SECTOR.

HIGH POP AXIS SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY BUT STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...SEE SPC
SLGT RISK SVR FOR SAT-SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

BEYOND THIS JUNCTURE IS WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. IT ALSO OPENS UP THE
UPPER LOW AND TRACKS IT DIRECTLY TOWARD OUR CWA ON TUESDAY WHILE
GENERATING GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGES IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OVER OUR AREA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER/SURFACE
LOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING OUR REGION DRY THROUGH ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

APPARENTLY THE SUPERBLEND MODEL IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POP GRIDS
EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231649
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WITH AN ISOLATED UPPER 30S STARTING TO SHOW UP IN POCKETS OF
SE IL. SOME MID/HIGH DECK CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT IMPEDING THE TEMP
FALL FOR NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE HEADLINE EFFECTIVE FOR
FROST POTENTIAL THRU 8 AM. WE`LL LEAVE AS IS...PER COLLAB EFFORTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ONLY STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. COULD SEE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
DIP INTO UPPER 30S AGAIN...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING INCOMING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT
EASTERLIES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACH...SO WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A 2ND PERIOD FROST ADVISORY AND ALLOW A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THIS
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT (OR NOT).

MOISTURE POOLING JUST UPSTREAM LOOKS TO SPREAD OVERTOP THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED INCOMING POPS WILL
EXPAND AGGRESSIVELY AND SPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECT FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
MISSOURI...AND WE START TO WARM SECTOR.

HIGH POP AXIS SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY BUT STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...SEE SPC
SLGT RISK SVR FOR SAT-SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

BEYOND THIS JUNCTURE IS WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. IT ALSO OPENS UP THE
UPPER LOW AND TRACKS IT DIRECTLY TOWARD OUR CWA ON TUESDAY WHILE
GENERATING GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGES IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OVER OUR AREA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER/SURFACE
LOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING OUR REGION DRY THROUGH ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

APPARENTLY THE SUPERBLEND MODEL IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POP GRIDS
EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 231649
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WITH AN ISOLATED UPPER 30S STARTING TO SHOW UP IN POCKETS OF
SE IL. SOME MID/HIGH DECK CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT IMPEDING THE TEMP
FALL FOR NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE HEADLINE EFFECTIVE FOR
FROST POTENTIAL THRU 8 AM. WE`LL LEAVE AS IS...PER COLLAB EFFORTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ONLY STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. COULD SEE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
DIP INTO UPPER 30S AGAIN...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING INCOMING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT
EASTERLIES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACH...SO WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A 2ND PERIOD FROST ADVISORY AND ALLOW A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THIS
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT (OR NOT).

MOISTURE POOLING JUST UPSTREAM LOOKS TO SPREAD OVERTOP THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED INCOMING POPS WILL
EXPAND AGGRESSIVELY AND SPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECT FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
MISSOURI...AND WE START TO WARM SECTOR.

HIGH POP AXIS SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY BUT STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...SEE SPC
SLGT RISK SVR FOR SAT-SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

BEYOND THIS JUNCTURE IS WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. IT ALSO OPENS UP THE
UPPER LOW AND TRACKS IT DIRECTLY TOWARD OUR CWA ON TUESDAY WHILE
GENERATING GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGES IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OVER OUR AREA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER/SURFACE
LOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING OUR REGION DRY THROUGH ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

APPARENTLY THE SUPERBLEND MODEL IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POP GRIDS
EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH





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