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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY AND NO CAP. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC/BLYR CONVERGENCE
AND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. BUT EVEN THE
RAP SHOWS THE MOISTURE SOURCE YESTERDAY THAT RESULTED IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION PARTS OF MISSOURI PIVOTING EAST INTO SEMO/SW IL FOR
TODAY. WILL CARRY 10-14 POPS AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THIS CORRIDOR. MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR MONDAY, A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL, WITH SMALL CHANCES CONTINUING NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS A BIT MORE OF THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADING ESE FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR POPS/WX MON-TUE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER STRONG THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROBLEMS
LIE IN THE DETAILS...AS MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
THE ACTUAL STRENGTH...SPEED AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE FASTEST WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING WAVE
AND HAS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST. THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE WILL SEE CHANCES
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF...NOT READY TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY JUST YET. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND WE CAN PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS STABILIZE ON A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...WE SHOULD
SEE THIS UPPER WAVE DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...MODELS
BECOME VERY MURKY WITH THE DETAILS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS LOOKS COMPLETELY OVERDONE WITH POPS WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH SO MUCH WITH REGARDS TO POPS.
BEING THAT WE ARE STILL IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EVEN AFTER THE
MIDWEEK WAVE...SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. TIMING AND LOCATION OF POPS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE SO WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH THAT ATTM.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THAT WILL HELP TO FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION. SO ONCE MODELS GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF
THAT FRONT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PINPOINT POPS WITH A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FINALLY TRIES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY COOL DOWN
A BIT AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 020740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY AND NO CAP. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC/BLYR CONVERGENCE
AND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. BUT EVEN THE
RAP SHOWS THE MOISTURE SOURCE YESTERDAY THAT RESULTED IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION PARTS OF MISSOURI PIVOTING EAST INTO SEMO/SW IL FOR
TODAY. WILL CARRY 10-14 POPS AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THIS CORRIDOR. MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR MONDAY, A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL, WITH SMALL CHANCES CONTINUING NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS A BIT MORE OF THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADING ESE FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR POPS/WX MON-TUE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER STRONG THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROBLEMS
LIE IN THE DETAILS...AS MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
THE ACTUAL STRENGTH...SPEED AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE FASTEST WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING WAVE
AND HAS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST. THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE WILL SEE CHANCES
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF...NOT READY TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY JUST YET. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND WE CAN PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS STABILIZE ON A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...WE SHOULD
SEE THIS UPPER WAVE DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...MODELS
BECOME VERY MURKY WITH THE DETAILS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS LOOKS COMPLETELY OVERDONE WITH POPS WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH SO MUCH WITH REGARDS TO POPS.
BEING THAT WE ARE STILL IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EVEN AFTER THE
MIDWEEK WAVE...SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. TIMING AND LOCATION OF POPS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE SO WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH THAT ATTM.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THAT WILL HELP TO FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION. SO ONCE MODELS GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF
THAT FRONT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PINPOINT POPS WITH A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FINALLY TRIES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY COOL DOWN
A BIT AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 020740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY AND NO CAP. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC/BLYR CONVERGENCE
AND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. BUT EVEN THE
RAP SHOWS THE MOISTURE SOURCE YESTERDAY THAT RESULTED IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION PARTS OF MISSOURI PIVOTING EAST INTO SEMO/SW IL FOR
TODAY. WILL CARRY 10-14 POPS AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THIS CORRIDOR. MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR MONDAY, A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL, WITH SMALL CHANCES CONTINUING NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS A BIT MORE OF THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADING ESE FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR POPS/WX MON-TUE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER STRONG THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROBLEMS
LIE IN THE DETAILS...AS MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
THE ACTUAL STRENGTH...SPEED AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE FASTEST WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING WAVE
AND HAS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST. THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE WILL SEE CHANCES
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF...NOT READY TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY JUST YET. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND WE CAN PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS STABILIZE ON A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...WE SHOULD
SEE THIS UPPER WAVE DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...MODELS
BECOME VERY MURKY WITH THE DETAILS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS LOOKS COMPLETELY OVERDONE WITH POPS WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH SO MUCH WITH REGARDS TO POPS.
BEING THAT WE ARE STILL IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EVEN AFTER THE
MIDWEEK WAVE...SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. TIMING AND LOCATION OF POPS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE SO WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH THAT ATTM.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THAT WILL HELP TO FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION. SO ONCE MODELS GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF
THAT FRONT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PINPOINT POPS WITH A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FINALLY TRIES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY COOL DOWN
A BIT AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 020740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY AND NO CAP. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC/BLYR CONVERGENCE
AND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. BUT EVEN THE
RAP SHOWS THE MOISTURE SOURCE YESTERDAY THAT RESULTED IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION PARTS OF MISSOURI PIVOTING EAST INTO SEMO/SW IL FOR
TODAY. WILL CARRY 10-14 POPS AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THIS CORRIDOR. MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR MONDAY, A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL, WITH SMALL CHANCES CONTINUING NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS A BIT MORE OF THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADING ESE FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR POPS/WX MON-TUE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER STRONG THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROBLEMS
LIE IN THE DETAILS...AS MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
THE ACTUAL STRENGTH...SPEED AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE FASTEST WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING WAVE
AND HAS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST. THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE WILL SEE CHANCES
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF...NOT READY TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY JUST YET. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND WE CAN PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS STABILIZE ON A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...WE SHOULD
SEE THIS UPPER WAVE DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...MODELS
BECOME VERY MURKY WITH THE DETAILS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS LOOKS COMPLETELY OVERDONE WITH POPS WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH SO MUCH WITH REGARDS TO POPS.
BEING THAT WE ARE STILL IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EVEN AFTER THE
MIDWEEK WAVE...SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. TIMING AND LOCATION OF POPS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE SO WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH THAT ATTM.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THAT WILL HELP TO FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION. SO ONCE MODELS GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF
THAT FRONT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PINPOINT POPS WITH A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FINALLY TRIES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY COOL DOWN
A BIT AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 012233
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.

THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.

WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING.  GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE.  AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE.  WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.  ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-3 CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 012233
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.

THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.

WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING.  GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE.  AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE.  WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.  ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-3 CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012002
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.

THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.

WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING.  GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE.  AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE.  WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.  ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI
AND KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 012002
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.

THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.

WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING.  GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE.  AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE.  WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.  ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI
AND KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012002
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.

THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.

WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING.  GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE.  AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE.  WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.  ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI
AND KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012002
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.

THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.

WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING.  GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE.  AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE.  WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.  ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI
AND KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011728
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI AND
KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011728
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI AND
KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011728
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI AND
KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011728
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI AND
KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011058
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. PERHAPS DIURNAL CU KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011058
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. PERHAPS DIURNAL CU KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011058
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. PERHAPS DIURNAL CU KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011058
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. PERHAPS DIURNAL CU KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 010735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI AND
KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI AND
KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 312021
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312021
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311143
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MOSTLY OUT OF
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311143
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MOSTLY OUT OF
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311143
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MOSTLY OUT OF
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310641
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRIDAY 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS
DUE TO MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310641
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRIDAY 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS
DUE TO MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310400
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS DUE TO
MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310400
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS DUE TO
MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302008
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302008
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302008
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB





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