000
FXUS63 KPAH 220826
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOWER TROP S-SWLYS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP AMPLE MOISTURE THRU THE
COLUMN TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE
DAYTIME ATMOS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SO
WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENTLY IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE
ACTED UPON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WITH ENERGY PINWHEELING AROUND
BASE OF MEAN LONG WAVE TROF TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS TREND MORE
OR LESS CONTINUES WITH A PRIMARY AND THEN 2NDARY UPPER TROF
PASSAGE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS MUCH OF THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS AND REMAINS SO.
THE CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIME WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WE GET INTO THE POST SYSTEM/WAKE AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN THE COLUMN. THE
RESULT WILL BE MID WEEK MUGGY 80S/60S TRANSITIONING TO COMFORTABLE
70S/50S BY WEEKS END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
MODELS REMAIN STUBBORNLY UNCOMPROMISING IN THEIR HANDLING OF A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
DEVELOPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS
THEREFORE MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. AN INSPECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CERTAINLY LENDS SUPPORT TO THE SCENARIO
PORTRAYED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE A MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE GOING FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NECESSARY.
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE BLEND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MOST RECENT BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN TAF SITES
(KEVV/KOWB) AT THIS WRITING WILL TEMPORARILY RESTRICT CIGS TO MVFR
THRU EARLY AM. NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR CIGS RESTRICTED TO MVFR AT TIMES IN
-SHRA/-TSRA WHICH LIKEWISE COULD PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTED VSBYS. A
GENERAL DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE
TERMINAL EFFECTIVE VALID TIME LENDS TOWARD A VICINITY APPROACH FOR
THE LINGERING POP CHANCE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 220505
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1205 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
SEVERAL GROUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AND MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...ONE OF WHICH IS TO
TAKE THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CURRENTLY. AS WAVES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME REGENERATION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SO
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT CLEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY RAMP UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER WEST KENTUCKY AT
06Z HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST TOMORROW AND AS STORMS WEAKEN
IN THE MORNING...SOME SUNSHINE MAY CREATE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PUT THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
WE MOVE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT BY 06Z THURSDAY...BUT BRING
BACKS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS COME IN BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. BY 12Z SATURDAY...ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE
GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING FARTHER EAST AND A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...THUS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
NORTH AND KEEP ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE SUNDAY. GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND
PREFER TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT DIPPING
SOUTH. GFS THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST AND BUILDING NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT BACK NORTH. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY. AFTER A COOLER START
TO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIGS AND VBSYS WILL TEND TO LOWER THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS AND TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TRENDS.
PRECIP WILL END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND
SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT WED
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY
000
FXUS63 KPAH 212332
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
SEVERAL GROUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AND MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...ONE OF WHICH IS TO
TAKE THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CURRENTLY. AS WAVES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME REGENERATION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SO
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT CLEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY RAMP UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER WEST KENTUCKY AT
06Z HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST TOMORROW AND AS STORMS WEAKEN
IN THE MORNING...SOME SUNSHINE MAY CREATE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PUT THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
WE MOVE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT BY 06Z THURSDAY...BUT BRING
BACKS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS COME IN BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. BY 12Z SATURDAY...ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE
GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING FARTHER EAST AND A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...THUS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
NORTH AND KEEP ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE SUNDAY. GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND
PREFER TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT DIPPING
SOUTH. GFS THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST AND BUILDING NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT BACK NORTH. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY. AFTER A COOLER START
TO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN AND STORMS WAS OVER KPAH AT 23Z. THE LEADING
EDGE WILL REACH KEVV/KOWB BY 01Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE LEADING EDGE...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. AROUND
OR AFTER 06Z...A LARGER AND HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY
000
FXUS63 KPAH 212013
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
SEVERAL GROUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AND MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...ONE OF WHICH IS TO
TAKE THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CURRENTLY. AS WAVES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME REGENERATION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SO
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT CLEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY RAMP UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER WEST KENTUCKY AT
06Z HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST TOMORROW AND AS STORMS WEAKEN
IN THE MORNING...SOME SUNSHINE MAY CREATE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PUT THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
WE MOVE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT BY 06Z THURSDAY...BUT BRING
BACKS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS COME IN BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. BY 12Z SATURDAY...ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE
GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING FARTHER EAST AND A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...THUS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
NORTH AND KEEP ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE SUNDAY. GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND
PREFER TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT DIPPING
SOUTH. GFS THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST AND BUILDING NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT BACK NORTH. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY. AFTER A COOLER START
TO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCT SHRA THROUGH 00Z WITH
LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. INCREASING TSTM CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. TSTMS
WILL DECREASE WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...WITH LOW VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...RST
000
FXUS63 KPAH 211732
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
NEAREST TERM IS DEALING WITH REMAINING CONVECTION/TOR WATCH BOX.
IN GENERAL...THE TREND IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY AS THE
LINE SINKS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. A FEW HEALTHY CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO PULSE...HOWEVER...AND WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WORKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WE`LL ONLY DROP WATCH BOX COUNTIES BEHIND
THE LINE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST...WEAKENING...AND THEN
REFIRING THIS PM/EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERS THE
PICTURE. BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A SLGT
RISK OF SVR WILL CONTINUE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PTN OF
THE CWA/ESP SEMO/SWKY/SWIL...INCLUDED IN A LATE DAY-EARLY EVENING
WATCH BOX.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS MO/IL/IN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THRU
THE AREA. INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH TIME/OVERNIGHT BUT ACTIVE
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY EXTEND THRU THE
NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH AND A HIGH POP/CATEGORICAL MENTION IS
WARRANTED EITHER WAY.
THE UPPER TROF/BEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM THRU/TO THE EAST OF US THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY EVEN
LINGER THRU THURSDAY AS 2NDARY UPPER TROF PASSAGE ALLOWS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NRN/ERN
PTNS FA. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY THU NIGHT...WHEN
PLEASANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR STARTS TO OVERTAKE THE COLUMN. 80S AND
60S COOL TO 70S AND 50S THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AND REACH JUST SHY OF THE SEASONAL
80 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THUS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL. BOTH THE GEM AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE LOCALLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE...PREFER TO STEER THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
DRIER GFS AT THIS TIME.
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE BLEND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCT SHRA THROUGH 00Z WITH
LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. INCREASING TSTM CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. TSTMS
WILL DECREASE WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...WITH LOW VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...RST
000
FXUS63 KPAH 210736
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
NEAREST TERM IS DEALING WITH REMAINING CONVECTION/TOR WATCH BOX.
IN GENERAL...THE TREND IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY AS THE
LINE SINKS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. A FEW HEALTHY CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO PULSE...HOWEVER...AND WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WORKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WE`LL ONLY DROP WATCH BOX COUNTIES BEHIND
THE LINE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST...WEAKENING...AND THEN
REFIRING THIS PM/EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERS THE
PICTURE. BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A SLGT
RISK OF SVR WILL CONTINUE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PTN OF
THE CWA/ESP SEMO/SWKY/SWIL...INCLUDED IN A LATE DAY-EARLY EVENING
WATCH BOX.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS MO/IL/IN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THRU
THE AREA. INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH TIME/OVERNIGHT BUT ACTIVE
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY EXTEND THRU THE
NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH AND A HIGH POP/CATEGORICAL MENTION IS
WARRANTED EITHER WAY.
THE UPPER TROF/BEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM THRU/TO THE EAST OF US THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY EVEN
LINGER THRU THURSAY AS 2NDARY UPPER TROF PASSAGE ALLOWS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NRN/ERN
PTNS FA. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY THU NIGHT...WHEN
PLEASANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR STARTS TO OVERTAKE THE COLUMN. 80S AND
60S COOL TO 70S AND 50S THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AND REACH JUST SHY OF THE SEASONAL
80 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THUS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL. BOTH THE GEM AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE LOCALLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE...PREFER TO STEER THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
DRIER GFS AT THIS TIME.
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE BLEND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ACTIVE ONGOING CONVECTION AT THIS WRITING. GUST FRONTS PRODUCING
WINDS/GUSTS TO 35 KTS PRECEDE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ROUGHLY 30-60
MINUTES WHERE STORM GUSTS MAY LIKEWISE REACH 35 KTS OR BETTER.
EXPECT MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO THEN DETERIORATE TO
MORE MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID MORNING. PM REDEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST
TO LOWEST EAST...WITH RETURN TO MVFR CONDTIONS BY EVENING
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER ROUND HITS TERMINALS/FLIGHT PATHS. IN BOTH
INSTANCES A STRONG STORM MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 210726
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
NEAREST TERM IS DEALING WITH REMAINING CONVECTION/TOR WATCH BOX.
IN GENERAL...THE TREND IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY AS THE
LINE SINKS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. A FEW HEALTHY CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO PULSE...HOWEVER...AND WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WORKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WE`LL ONLY DROP WATCH BOX COUNTIES BEHIND
THE LINE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST...WEAKENING...AND THEN
REFIRING THIS PM/EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERS THE
PICTURE. BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A SLGT
RISK OF SVR WILL CONTINUE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PTN OF
THE CWA/ESP SEMO/SWKY/SWIL...INCLUDED IN A LATE DAY-EARLY EVENING
WATCH BOX.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS MO/IL/IN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THRU
THE AREA. INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH TIME/OVERNIGHT BUT ACTIVE
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY EXTEND THRU THE
NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH AND A HIGH POP/CATEGORICAL MENTION IS
WARRANTED EITHER WAY.
THE UPPER TROF/BEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM THRU/TO THE EAST OF US THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY EVEN
LINGER THRU THURSAY AS 2NDARY UPPER TROF PASSAGE ALLOWS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NRN/ERN
PTNS FA. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY THU NIGHT...WHEN
PLEASANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR STARTS TO OVERTAKE THE COLUMN. 80S AND
60S COOL TO 70S AND 50S THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE
LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ACTIVE ONGOING CONVECTION AT THIS WRITING. GUST FRONTS PRODUCING
WINDS/GUSTS TO 35 KTS PRECEDE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ROUGHLY 30-60
MINUTES WHERE STORM GUSTS MAY LIKEWISE REACH 35 KTS OR BETTER.
EXPECT MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO THEN DETERIORATE TO
MORE MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID MORNING. PM REDEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST
TO LOWEST EAST...WITH RETURN TO MVFR CONDTIONS BY EVENING
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER ROUND HITS TERMINALS/FLIGHT PATHS. IN BOTH
INSTANCES A STRONG STORM MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 202321
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AIRMASS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO LIFTING MECHANISMS AT
THIS TIME SO JUST CU...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION COULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SHOULD BE A LULL...THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPS
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER
SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MOST OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE MORE THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE TIMING OF STORMS ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CONVECTION ALLOWING COMPUTER MODELS...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
THESE STORMS TO REACH THE TAF SITES WOULD BE 06Z TO 10Z. THE STORMS
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS...SINCE THEY WILL MIX DOWN
STRONGER WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE 4000 FOOT LEVEL. ONCE THE
STORMS PASS...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN RESIDUAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITY OF STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CN/KES
AVIATION...MY
000
FXUS63 KPAH 201826
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AIRMASS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO LIFTING MECHANISMS AT
THIS TIME SO JUST CU...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION COULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SHOULD BE A LULL...THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPS
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER
SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SCT-BKN CU WITH SSW WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
IS UNSTABLE...BUT LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. KEPT PROB30S FOR TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS LEVELING OFF.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 201708 CCA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AVIATION UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE FRONT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST STAYS...FOR THE
MOST PART...TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ITS OUTFLOW MAY SET OFF
A SHOWER OR STORM CHANCE FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN FRINGES BY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ANOTHER 12-24 HRS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OVER MO/AR DEVELOPS AS UPPER LOW/HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN EASTWARD
INTO THE PAH FA...WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO ACTUALLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE FA BY 12Z WED AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRE FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PRECEDE IT...SO PEAK
POPS LIKELY OR BETTER BY TUESDAY NIGHT-CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR STORMS. SWODY2
OUTLOOKS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SLGT RISK SVR ACCORDINGLY.
THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS A BROADER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
WED-WED NIGHT AND ULTIMATELY DRIVES THE FRONT TO OUR EAST AS
HEIGHT FALLS MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. CONTINUED
PCPN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE THRU THE WED NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS READINGS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HERALD A WARMING TREND...INCREASED
HUMIDITY...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SCT-BKN CU WITH SSW WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
IS UNSTABLE...BUT LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. KEPT PROB30S FOR TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS LEVELING OFF.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 201707
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AVIATION UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE FRONT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST STAYS...FOR THE
MOST PART...TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ITS OUTFLOW MAY SET OFF
A SHOWER OR STORM CHANCE FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN FRINGES BY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ANOTHER 12-24 HRS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OVER MO/AR DEVELOPS AS UPPER LOW/HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN EASTWARD
INTO THE PAH FA...WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO ACTUALLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE FA BY 12Z WED AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRE FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PRECEDE IT...SO PEAK
POPS LIKELY OR BETTER BY TUESDAY NIGHT-CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR STORMS. SWODY2
OUTLOOKS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SLGT RISK SVR ACCORDINGLY.
THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS A BROADER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
WED-WED NIGHT AND ULTIMATELY DRIVES THE FRONT TO OUR EAST AS
HEIGHT FALLS MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. CONTINUED
PCPN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE THRU THE WED NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS READINGS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HERALD A WARMING TREND...INCREASED
HUMIDITY...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SCT-BKN CU WITH SSW WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
IS UNSTABLE...BUT LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED.
WILL TRENDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. KEPT PROB30S FOR TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS LEVELING OFF.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 200744
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE FRONT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST STAYS...FOR THE
MOST PART...TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ITS OUTFLOW MAY SET OFF
A SHOWER OR STORM CHANCE FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN FRINGES BY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ANOTHER 12-24 HRS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OVER MO/AR DEVELOPS AS UPPER LOW/HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN EASTWARD
INTO THE PAH FA...WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO ACTUALLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE FA BY 12Z WED AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRE FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PRECEDE IT...SO PEAK
POPS LIKELY OR BETTER BY TUESDAY NIGHT-CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR STORMS. SWODY2
OUTLOOKS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SLGT RISK SVR ACCORDINGLY.
THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS A BROADER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
WED-WED NIGHT AND ULTIMATELY DRIVES THE FRONT TO OUR EAST AS
HEIGHT FALLS MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. CONTINUED
PCPN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE THRU THE WED NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS READINGS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HERALD A WARMING TREND...INCREASED
HUMIDITY...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CIGS MAY WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. SLYS
WILL PICK UP TODAY AND INCLUDE SOME DIURNAL GUSTINESS. PCPN
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION TODAY BUT MAY CREEP INTO PROB30
MENTIONABLES BY EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR KCGI...WITH
ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL VSBY DROPS TO MVFR IN -TSRA.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KPAH 200421
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1121 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A SFC BOUNDARY/THETA E GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...IT WILL ALLOW A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH THE REGION...SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...BUT ONLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA TO BE AFFECTED BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS IS TYPICAL OVER TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...BUT WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CROSS OUR
CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND AN
INCREASE IN FORCING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...CHANCES OF A FEW
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TIMING...IT APPEARS
THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS SW INDIANA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN KY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 500
MB SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEAR DRY AND COOLER AS A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE OUTLIER TO THIS
SOLUTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH PRODUCES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT OVER THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER REGION.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS/GEFS AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED. 00Z ECMWF MOS AND 12Z GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS.
ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MOS REMAIN
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TIME OF ALL TAFS WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF CGI. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF A TSRA AFTER 00Z TUE AT
KCGI. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH
000
FXUS63 KPAH 192239
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A SFC BOUNDARY/THETA E GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...IT WILL ALLOW A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH THE REGION...SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...BUT ONLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA TO BE AFFECTED BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS IS TYPICAL OVER TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...BUT WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CROSS OUR
CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND AN
INCREASE IN FORCING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...CHANCES OF A FEW
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TIMING...IT APPEARS
THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS SW INDIANA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN KY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 500
MB SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEAR DRY AND COOLER AS A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE OUTLIER TO THIS
SOLUTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH PRODUCES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT OVER THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER REGION.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS/GEFS AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED. 00Z ECMWF MOS AND 12Z GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS.
ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MOS REMAIN
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SOME HAZE AROUND EVV AND OWB IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO GUST TO NEAR 20 AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. MAY
HAVE TO INTRODUCE A LOW DECK FOR LAST LEG OF TAF AT ALL
SITES...BUT FORECAST SOUNDING ARE NOT SENDING A STRONG ENOUGH
SIGNAL ATTM. WILL ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO INCLUDE LOW DECK ON NEXT
ISSUANCE WHICH EXTENDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH
000
FXUS63 KPAH 192004
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A SFC BOUNDARY/THETA E GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...IT WILL ALLOW A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH THE REGION...SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...BUT ONLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA TO BE AFFECTED BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS IS TYPICAL OVER TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...BUT WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CROSS OUR
CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND AN
INCREASE IN FORCING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...CHANCES OF A FEW
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TIMING...IT APPEARS
THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS SW INDIANA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN KY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 500
MB SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEAR DRY AND COOLER AS A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE OUTLIER TO THIS
SOLUTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH PRODUCES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT OVER THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER REGION.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS/GEFS AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED. 00Z ECMWF MOS AND 12Z GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS.
ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MOS REMAIN
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND
SUNSET...THOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE MAY FORM AROUND SUNRISE.
HOWEVER...STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CIGS AND VSBYS THAN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MY
000
FXUS63 KPAH 191731
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A WARM FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FA MAY HELP FOCUS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INTO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THIS
PM/EVENING...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE LIKE THE GOING 20S COVERING THIS AND
WILL RETAIN THAT WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT.
AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO PRETTY
MUCH SUPPRESS CONVECTION THRU MONDAY. THE TRENDING OF ALL THE
MODELS IS TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT...SO WE
MADE THE NECESSARY TIMING CHANGES FOR THAT...RESULTING IN A SMALL
INTRO POP MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTH/WEST. POPS THEN SPREAD SLOWLY
EASTWARD THE ENSUING 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...PEAKING
TUESDAY NIGHT (INTO WED) IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. NEW SWODYS1-3 IS
IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING/TIMING AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE TREND TO A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING SCHEME WHICH BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR
THE NW BORDER OF THE FA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
500MB SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTION ON THIS FEATURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/COLD FRONT IMPACT SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SE
HALF OF THE FA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL WED. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
THE FRONT STILL APPEARS SLATED TO STALL OUT/WASH OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS...MAINLY OVER THE S/SE PART OF THE FA.
GEM AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WARM FRONT OVER THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
GROWING CUMULUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THAT AREA. ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AT BOTH SITES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY
VFR. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN MONDAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE MAY FORM
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER CIGS AND VSBYS THAN OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RLS/DH
AVIATION...MY
| 
