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000
FXUS63 KPAH 062101
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 062101
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 060813
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY MIST/FZFG IN CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND OVER
SNOWPACK ENVIRON...BUT AIR IS VERY DRY SO IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS THAT IT MAY OCCUR. IF IT DOES OCCUR...TEMPO
RESTRICTION TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MOST
LIKELY AT KCGI. OTHERWISE VFR WILL RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 060813
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY MIST/FZFG IN CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND OVER
SNOWPACK ENVIRON...BUT AIR IS VERY DRY SO IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS THAT IT MAY OCCUR. IF IT DOES OCCUR...TEMPO
RESTRICTION TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MOST
LIKELY AT KCGI. OTHERWISE VFR WILL RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN





000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN





000
FXUS63 KPAH 051730
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 051730
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 051124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME LINGERING MVFR
AT KOWB BEFORE SNOW EXITS THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM AROUND NOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. KPAH/KCGI SHOULD HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT
KEVV/KOWB LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

IN...NONE.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 051124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME LINGERING MVFR
AT KOWB BEFORE SNOW EXITS THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM AROUND NOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. KPAH/KCGI SHOULD HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT
KEVV/KOWB LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

IN...NONE.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MOZ112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MOZ112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 050757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
157 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MOZ112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 042352
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WENT WITH PREVAILING HEAVY SNOW AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING. IT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FIGURE THAT MVFR SNOW
MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z AT KOWB AND KPAH. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE LOSE OUR LOWER CEILINGS FOR AWHILE AFTER THE SNOWS DEPART...BUT
KPAH AND KOWB ARE MOST LIKELY TO HANG ONTO THEM. IF THEY DO GO
AWAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM REDEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STAY NEAR
10KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 042352
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WENT WITH PREVAILING HEAVY SNOW AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING. IT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FIGURE THAT MVFR SNOW
MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z AT KOWB AND KPAH. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE LOSE OUR LOWER CEILINGS FOR AWHILE AFTER THE SNOWS DEPART...BUT
KPAH AND KOWB ARE MOST LIKELY TO HANG ONTO THEM. IF THEY DO GO
AWAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM REDEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STAY NEAR
10KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042352
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WENT WITH PREVAILING HEAVY SNOW AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING. IT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FIGURE THAT MVFR SNOW
MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z AT KOWB AND KPAH. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE LOSE OUR LOWER CEILINGS FOR AWHILE AFTER THE SNOWS DEPART...BUT
KPAH AND KOWB ARE MOST LIKELY TO HANG ONTO THEM. IF THEY DO GO
AWAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM REDEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STAY NEAR
10KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 042352
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WENT WITH PREVAILING HEAVY SNOW AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING. IT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FIGURE THAT MVFR SNOW
MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z AT KOWB AND KPAH. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE LOSE OUR LOWER CEILINGS FOR AWHILE AFTER THE SNOWS DEPART...BUT
KPAH AND KOWB ARE MOST LIKELY TO HANG ONTO THEM. IF THEY DO GO
AWAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM REDEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STAY NEAR
10KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 042044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 041750
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BUT STARTING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN...PRECIPITATION TOTALS THUS FAR
HAVE WORKED OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE THINKING. OVERALL...RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE IN A BAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT PRIMARILY WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH NOON IN THIS
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW LONG DOES THE SLEET PERSIST
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL INPUT...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS SEVERAL HOURS.
THE WARMER MID LEVELS OF THE NAM NOW HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE
RAP...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...THOUGH IT IS STILL COLDER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN NOT ONLY THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT ALSO THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL LATE
MORNING...AND IT MAY BE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING...BUT IT MAY BE MID EVENING BEFORE IT IS
COMPLETELY SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AND WPC. INTERESTINGLY...EVEN THROUGH THE SLEET WILL LIKELY CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION TODAY...THE SNOW TONIGHT IS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION. THE END RESULT IS A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TO THAT
END...WE EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES IN A BAND
20 TO 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIKESTON MISSOURI TO PADUCAH
KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. AMOUNTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES LESS GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION
OF SLEET THERE. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET. HOWEVER...
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER TOP
A SNOW COVERED GROUND. BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES...AND PROBABLY COLDER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WE START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH START OF DAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE HIGH CENTERS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
TN VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW IS SLOW
TO GET GOING AND EVEN WITH ABOUT A 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE...IT
MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF NOT REACHING 32 DEGREES...HAVING TO WAIT TIL
THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN CHANCES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE EXIST AS SMALL
PIECES OF ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32F FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN LOW-MID 40S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS A BROAD
AREA OF CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO/THRU THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. RETURN FLOW SLYS ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB THRU THE
40S MONDAY...INTO THE 50S TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FLIRT WITH THE 60
DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 041750
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BUT STARTING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN...PRECIPITATION TOTALS THUS FAR
HAVE WORKED OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE THINKING. OVERALL...RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE IN A BAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT PRIMARILY WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH NOON IN THIS
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW LONG DOES THE SLEET PERSIST
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL INPUT...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS SEVERAL HOURS.
THE WARMER MID LEVELS OF THE NAM NOW HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE
RAP...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...THOUGH IT IS STILL COLDER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN NOT ONLY THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT ALSO THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL LATE
MORNING...AND IT MAY BE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING...BUT IT MAY BE MID EVENING BEFORE IT IS
COMPLETELY SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AND WPC. INTERESTINGLY...EVEN THROUGH THE SLEET WILL LIKELY CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION TODAY...THE SNOW TONIGHT IS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION. THE END RESULT IS A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TO THAT
END...WE EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES IN A BAND
20 TO 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIKESTON MISSOURI TO PADUCAH
KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. AMOUNTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES LESS GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION
OF SLEET THERE. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET. HOWEVER...
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER TOP
A SNOW COVERED GROUND. BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES...AND PROBABLY COLDER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WE START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH START OF DAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE HIGH CENTERS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
TN VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW IS SLOW
TO GET GOING AND EVEN WITH ABOUT A 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE...IT
MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF NOT REACHING 32 DEGREES...HAVING TO WAIT TIL
THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN CHANCES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE EXIST AS SMALL
PIECES OF ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32F FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN LOW-MID 40S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS A BROAD
AREA OF CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO/THRU THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. RETURN FLOW SLYS ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB THRU THE
40S MONDAY...INTO THE 50S TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FLIRT WITH THE 60
DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 041750
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BUT STARTING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN...PRECIPITATION TOTALS THUS FAR
HAVE WORKED OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE THINKING. OVERALL...RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE IN A BAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT PRIMARILY WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH NOON IN THIS
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW LONG DOES THE SLEET PERSIST
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL INPUT...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS SEVERAL HOURS.
THE WARMER MID LEVELS OF THE NAM NOW HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE
RAP...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...THOUGH IT IS STILL COLDER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN NOT ONLY THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT ALSO THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL LATE
MORNING...AND IT MAY BE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING...BUT IT MAY BE MID EVENING BEFORE IT IS
COMPLETELY SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AND WPC. INTERESTINGLY...EVEN THROUGH THE SLEET WILL LIKELY CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION TODAY...THE SNOW TONIGHT IS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION. THE END RESULT IS A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TO THAT
END...WE EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES IN A BAND
20 TO 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIKESTON MISSOURI TO PADUCAH
KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. AMOUNTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES LESS GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION
OF SLEET THERE. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET. HOWEVER...
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER TOP
A SNOW COVERED GROUND. BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES...AND PROBABLY COLDER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WE START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH START OF DAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE HIGH CENTERS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
TN VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW IS SLOW
TO GET GOING AND EVEN WITH ABOUT A 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE...IT
MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF NOT REACHING 32 DEGREES...HAVING TO WAIT TIL
THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN CHANCES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE EXIST AS SMALL
PIECES OF ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32F FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN LOW-MID 40S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS A BROAD
AREA OF CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO/THRU THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. RETURN FLOW SLYS ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB THRU THE
40S MONDAY...INTO THE 50S TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FLIRT WITH THE 60
DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 041750
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BUT STARTING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN...PRECIPITATION TOTALS THUS FAR
HAVE WORKED OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE THINKING. OVERALL...RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE IN A BAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT PRIMARILY WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH NOON IN THIS
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW LONG DOES THE SLEET PERSIST
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL INPUT...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS SEVERAL HOURS.
THE WARMER MID LEVELS OF THE NAM NOW HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE
RAP...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...THOUGH IT IS STILL COLDER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN NOT ONLY THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT ALSO THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL LATE
MORNING...AND IT MAY BE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING...BUT IT MAY BE MID EVENING BEFORE IT IS
COMPLETELY SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AND WPC. INTERESTINGLY...EVEN THROUGH THE SLEET WILL LIKELY CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION TODAY...THE SNOW TONIGHT IS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION. THE END RESULT IS A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TO THAT
END...WE EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES IN A BAND
20 TO 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIKESTON MISSOURI TO PADUCAH
KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. AMOUNTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES LESS GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION
OF SLEET THERE. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET. HOWEVER...
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER TOP
A SNOW COVERED GROUND. BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES...AND PROBABLY COLDER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WE START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH START OF DAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE HIGH CENTERS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
TN VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW IS SLOW
TO GET GOING AND EVEN WITH ABOUT A 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE...IT
MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF NOT REACHING 32 DEGREES...HAVING TO WAIT TIL
THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN CHANCES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE EXIST AS SMALL
PIECES OF ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32F FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN LOW-MID 40S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS A BROAD
AREA OF CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO/THRU THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. RETURN FLOW SLYS ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB THRU THE
40S MONDAY...INTO THE 50S TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FLIRT WITH THE 60
DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 040956
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BUT STARTING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN...PRECIPITATION TOTALS THUS FAR
HAVE WORKED OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE THINKING. OVERALL...RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE IN A BAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT PRIMARILY WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH NOON IN THIS
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW LONG DOES THE SLEET PERSIST
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL INPUT...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS SEVERAL HOURS.
THE WARMER MID LEVELS OF THE NAM NOW HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE
RAP...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...THOUGH IT IS STILL COLDER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN NOT ONLY THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT ALSO THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL LATE
MORNING...AND IT MAY BE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING...BUT IT MAY BE MID EVENING BEFORE IT IS
COMPLETELY SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AND WPC. INTERESTINGLY...EVEN THROUGH THE SLEET WILL LIKELY CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION TODAY...THE SNOW TONIGHT IS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION. THE END RESULT IS A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TO THAT
END...WE EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES IN A BAND
20 TO 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIKESTON MISSOURI TO PADUCAH
KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. AMOUNTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES LESS GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION
OF SLEET THERE. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET. HOWEVER...
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER TOP
A SNOW COVERED GROUND. BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES...AND PROBABLY COLDER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WE START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH START OF DAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE HIGH CENTERS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
TN VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW IS SLOW
TO GET GOING AND EVEN WITH ABOUT A 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE...IT
MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF NOT REACHING 32 DEGREES...HAVING TO WAIT TIL
THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN CHANCES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE EXIST AS SMALL
PIECES OF ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32F FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN LOW-MID 40S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS A BROAD
AREA OF CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO/THRU THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. RETURN FLOW SLYS ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB THRU THE
40S MONDAY...INTO THE 50S TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FLIRT WITH THE 60
DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS/VSBYS WILL OSCILLATE FROM IFR-MVFR THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH ALL LIQUID RAIN. PCPN STARTS TO CHANGE 12Z-18Z AS
COLDER AIR WORKS DOWN THE COLUMN...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT FOR SURE BY PM HOURS. AFTER A FEW HOURS
OF SLEET...THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE...TO SNOW...FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED IFR-MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL APPLY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PM-EVENING
HOURS...AS AT TIMES MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN OCCURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>111.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ112-114.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ014-018.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 040547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. CORRECTED LONG TERM DISCUSSION TEXT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL NOT GO INTO
TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY THE REASON FOR THIS UNWELCOMED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SEE PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, SO THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, SO DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS A NEW FRIGID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
AS PCPN TRANSITIONS FROM RA TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA...THEN
SLEET...THEN SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WED. THOUGH SOME DATA SUGGESTS IFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WE WENT WITH
SLOWLY RISING CIGS TO MVFR BY WED EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 040547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. CORRECTED LONG TERM DISCUSSION TEXT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL NOT GO INTO
TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY THE REASON FOR THIS UNWELCOMED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SEE PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, SO THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, SO DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS A NEW FRIGID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
AS PCPN TRANSITIONS FROM RA TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA...THEN
SLEET...THEN SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WED. THOUGH SOME DATA SUGGESTS IFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WE WENT WITH
SLOWLY RISING CIGS TO MVFR BY WED EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AVIATION...DB





000
FXUS63 KPAH 040547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. CORRECTED LONG TERM DISCUSSION TEXT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL NOT GO INTO
TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY THE REASON FOR THIS UNWELCOMED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SEE PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, SO THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, SO DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS A NEW FRIGID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
AS PCPN TRANSITIONS FROM RA TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA...THEN
SLEET...THEN SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WED. THOUGH SOME DATA SUGGESTS IFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WE WENT WITH
SLOWLY RISING CIGS TO MVFR BY WED EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 040547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. CORRECTED LONG TERM DISCUSSION TEXT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL NOT GO INTO
TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY THE REASON FOR THIS UNWELCOMED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SEE PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, SO THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, SO DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS A NEW FRIGID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
AS PCPN TRANSITIONS FROM RA TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA...THEN
SLEET...THEN SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WED. THOUGH SOME DATA SUGGESTS IFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WE WENT WITH
SLOWLY RISING CIGS TO MVFR BY WED EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AVIATION...DB





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