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000
FXUS63 KPAH 010821
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Beginning to see some mid-level clouds developing over the
northern half of the region, and the upper low shows up real nice
on water vapor imagery over east, central Indiana. Some patchy fog
has been reported at a few locations, but it has not been terribly
persistent. Will keep a mention of patchy fog over much of the
area for an hour or so after daybreak.

The HRRR indicates that there may be some shower and storm
activity with this cloud development over southern Illinois by
daybreak, but it quickly kills it off by late morning. The NMM and
ARW WRF runs develop some convection closer to the upper low
before daybreak and then build it south down the Wabash Valley and
then southwest through southern Illinois through the morning. This
seems most plausible, so used it as a guide for PoP placement
through the day.

Coverage is not expected to be too great, and it may not happen
at all, so kept pops at slight chances only. If the WRF runs are
right, there won`t be much left after 18Z, but will keep the
slight chances over southern Illinois and much of southeast
Missouri through the afternoon just to be safe. The remainder of
the short term portion of the forecast is dry, with high pressure
at the surface and aloft through the period.

Looking at temperatures, the GFS and ECMWF-based MOS guidance
seems too hot for highs today through Thursday, as they have been
for most of this Summer. The previous forecast had this well in
hand, so did not make much change at all. There will be a slight
warming trend through Thursday, but with the surface high centered
right over the area, a major warming trend is not likely.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day. Highs will generally be in the
lower half of the 90s...tho some of the more recent MOS suggests we
may test the mid 90s Friday and Saturday.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points earlier this summer. The
ground has become significantly drier since the July flooding
events, which supports a forecast of lower humidity levels. On the
other hand, lower humidity also supports higher temps during the
day.

Will need to keep an eye the the possibility of an easterly wave
moving west into the se U.S. toward the end of the long term. At
minimum, this wave could help to bring down temps a notch or two,
and could also bring a few showers to portions of the region, esp
wrn KY.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR fog is expected at all sites after 08z, and brief IFR is
possible mainly at KCGI/KPAH. After 13z, conditions will be VFR
with SCT040 cumulus after 15z. Calm to light south winds overnight
will become south/southwest near 5kts after 13z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010446
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and Ontario. The upper ridge is expected to remain
in place and strengthen Thursday through the end of the week. This
should help to keep things dry with some clouds around, as a layer
of moisture will be situated between 850mb-700mb. Due to the heat
and humidity, can`t rule out an isolated storm where better moisture
becomes situated...but all in all dry.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our
northeast...in northern Quebec. The center of the high will slowly
migrate from southeastern Canada southward into the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Sunday. So while surface winds may start off with more of
an easterly component, a veer to the south is expected with time.
This will likely advect some mid level moisture into the area off
the Atlantic Ocean. This additional moisture and a weakness in the
upper ridge noted in the models, may be enough to spark some showers
and storms by Sunday night in our eastern counties. However, models
do differ on how far west the moisture makes it and whether or not
rain chances are warranted. Decided to leave pops in the slight
chance category for now.

Very late in the extended period, a frontal boundary tries to impact
the area. There are huge timing and strength differences, so
have only introduced some small chances for collaboration purposes.

Otherwise, it will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period as 850 mb temps remain pretty steady in the upper teens to
around 20 deg C. Expect highs to range from around 90 into the lower
90s, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Humidity values
will likely be rather uncomfortable but not oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR fog is expected at all sites after 08z, and brief IFR is
possible mainly at KGCI/KPAH. After 13z, conditions will be VFR with
SCT040 cumulus after 15z. Calm to light south winds overnight
will become south/southwest near 5kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010446
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and Ontario. The upper ridge is expected to remain
in place and strengthen Thursday through the end of the week. This
should help to keep things dry with some clouds around, as a layer
of moisture will be situated between 850mb-700mb. Due to the heat
and humidity, can`t rule out an isolated storm where better moisture
becomes situated...but all in all dry.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our
northeast...in northern Quebec. The center of the high will slowly
migrate from southeastern Canada southward into the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Sunday. So while surface winds may start off with more of
an easterly component, a veer to the south is expected with time.
This will likely advect some mid level moisture into the area off
the Atlantic Ocean. This additional moisture and a weakness in the
upper ridge noted in the models, may be enough to spark some showers
and storms by Sunday night in our eastern counties. However, models
do differ on how far west the moisture makes it and whether or not
rain chances are warranted. Decided to leave pops in the slight
chance category for now.

Very late in the extended period, a frontal boundary tries to impact
the area. There are huge timing and strength differences, so
have only introduced some small chances for collaboration purposes.

Otherwise, it will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period as 850 mb temps remain pretty steady in the upper teens to
around 20 deg C. Expect highs to range from around 90 into the lower
90s, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Humidity values
will likely be rather uncomfortable but not oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR fog is expected at all sites after 08z, and brief IFR is
possible mainly at KGCI/KPAH. After 13z, conditions will be VFR with
SCT040 cumulus after 15z. Calm to light south winds overnight
will become south/southwest near 5kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 010446
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and Ontario. The upper ridge is expected to remain
in place and strengthen Thursday through the end of the week. This
should help to keep things dry with some clouds around, as a layer
of moisture will be situated between 850mb-700mb. Due to the heat
and humidity, can`t rule out an isolated storm where better moisture
becomes situated...but all in all dry.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our
northeast...in northern Quebec. The center of the high will slowly
migrate from southeastern Canada southward into the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Sunday. So while surface winds may start off with more of
an easterly component, a veer to the south is expected with time.
This will likely advect some mid level moisture into the area off
the Atlantic Ocean. This additional moisture and a weakness in the
upper ridge noted in the models, may be enough to spark some showers
and storms by Sunday night in our eastern counties. However, models
do differ on how far west the moisture makes it and whether or not
rain chances are warranted. Decided to leave pops in the slight
chance category for now.

Very late in the extended period, a frontal boundary tries to impact
the area. There are huge timing and strength differences, so
have only introduced some small chances for collaboration purposes.

Otherwise, it will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period as 850 mb temps remain pretty steady in the upper teens to
around 20 deg C. Expect highs to range from around 90 into the lower
90s, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Humidity values
will likely be rather uncomfortable but not oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR fog is expected at all sites after 08z, and brief IFR is
possible mainly at KGCI/KPAH. After 13z, conditions will be VFR with
SCT040 cumulus after 15z. Calm to light south winds overnight
will become south/southwest near 5kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 010446
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and Ontario. The upper ridge is expected to remain
in place and strengthen Thursday through the end of the week. This
should help to keep things dry with some clouds around, as a layer
of moisture will be situated between 850mb-700mb. Due to the heat
and humidity, can`t rule out an isolated storm where better moisture
becomes situated...but all in all dry.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our
northeast...in northern Quebec. The center of the high will slowly
migrate from southeastern Canada southward into the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Sunday. So while surface winds may start off with more of
an easterly component, a veer to the south is expected with time.
This will likely advect some mid level moisture into the area off
the Atlantic Ocean. This additional moisture and a weakness in the
upper ridge noted in the models, may be enough to spark some showers
and storms by Sunday night in our eastern counties. However, models
do differ on how far west the moisture makes it and whether or not
rain chances are warranted. Decided to leave pops in the slight
chance category for now.

Very late in the extended period, a frontal boundary tries to impact
the area. There are huge timing and strength differences, so
have only introduced some small chances for collaboration purposes.

Otherwise, it will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period as 850 mb temps remain pretty steady in the upper teens to
around 20 deg C. Expect highs to range from around 90 into the lower
90s, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Humidity values
will likely be rather uncomfortable but not oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR fog is expected at all sites after 08z, and brief IFR is
possible mainly at KGCI/KPAH. After 13z, conditions will be VFR with
SCT040 cumulus after 15z. Calm to light south winds overnight
will become south/southwest near 5kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and Ontario. The upper ridge is expected to remain
in place and strengthen Thursday through the end of the week. This
should help to keep things dry with some clouds around, as a layer
of moisture will be situated between 850mb-700mb. Due to the heat
and humidity, can`t rule out an isolated storm where better moisture
becomes situated...but all in all dry.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our
northeast...in northern Quebec. The center of the high will slowly
migrate from southeastern Canada southward into the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Sunday. So while surface winds may start off with more of
an easterly component, a veer to the south is expected with time.
This will likely advect some mid level moisture into the area off
the Atlantic Ocean. This additional moisture and a weakness in the
upper ridge noted in the models, may be enough to spark some showers
and storms by Sunday night in our eastern counties. However, models
do differ on how far west the moisture makes it and whether or not
rain chances are warranted. Decided to leave pops in the slight
chance category for now.

Very late in the extended period, a frontal boundary tries to impact
the area. There are huge timing and strength differences, so
have only introduced some small chances for collaboration purposes.

Otherwise, it will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period as 850 mb temps remain pretty steady in the upper teens to
around 20 deg C. Expect highs to range from around 90 into the lower
90s, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Humidity values
will likely be rather uncomfortable but not oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and Ontario. The upper ridge is expected to remain
in place and strengthen Thursday through the end of the week. This
should help to keep things dry with some clouds around, as a layer
of moisture will be situated between 850mb-700mb. Due to the heat
and humidity, can`t rule out an isolated storm where better moisture
becomes situated...but all in all dry.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our
northeast...in northern Quebec. The center of the high will slowly
migrate from southeastern Canada southward into the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Sunday. So while surface winds may start off with more of
an easterly component, a veer to the south is expected with time.
This will likely advect some mid level moisture into the area off
the Atlantic Ocean. This additional moisture and a weakness in the
upper ridge noted in the models, may be enough to spark some showers
and storms by Sunday night in our eastern counties. However, models
do differ on how far west the moisture makes it and whether or not
rain chances are warranted. Decided to leave pops in the slight
chance category for now.

Very late in the extended period, a frontal boundary tries to impact
the area. There are huge timing and strength differences, so
have only introduced some small chances for collaboration purposes.

Otherwise, it will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period as 850 mb temps remain pretty steady in the upper teens to
around 20 deg C. Expect highs to range from around 90 into the lower
90s, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Humidity values
will likely be rather uncomfortable but not oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Looks as though most of the short term will be dominated by a
ridge of high pressure in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere.
Should result in generally a rain free forecast with at or above
normal temps. Afternoon readings will run in the upper half of
the 80s today...then near 90 to the lower 90s Tue/Wed. A weak trof
of low pressure embedded within the ridge may produce an isolated
storm here and there, but looks like most locations will stay
precip free.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Few to scattered VFR clouds will prevail through the night. Patchy
MVFR fog is possible again towards daybreak. Maintained a temporary
reduction to IFR at KCGI and KPAH between 09-12Z. Mainly dry weather
will prevail Monday, but an isolated shower or storm is not entirely
out of the question during the afternoon. Winds will be southerly
around 5 knots during the day and near calm at night.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Looks as though most of the short term will be dominated by a
ridge of high pressure in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere.
Should result in generally a rain free forecast with at or above
normal temps. Afternoon readings will run in the upper half of
the 80s today...then near 90 to the lower 90s Tue/Wed. A weak trof
of low pressure embedded within the ridge may produce an isolated
storm here and there, but looks like most locations will stay
precip free.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Few to scattered VFR clouds will prevail through the night. Patchy
MVFR fog is possible again towards daybreak. Maintained a temporary
reduction to IFR at KCGI and KPAH between 09-12Z. Mainly dry weather
will prevail Monday, but an isolated shower or storm is not entirely
out of the question during the afternoon. Winds will be southerly
around 5 knots during the day and near calm at night.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Looks as though most of the short term will be dominated by a
ridge of high pressure in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere.
Should result in generally a rain free forecast with at or above
normal temps. Afternoon readings will run in the upper half of
the 80s today...then near 90 to the lower 90s Tue/Wed. A weak trof
of low pressure embedded within the ridge may produce an isolated
storm here and there, but looks like most locations will stay
precip free.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Few to scattered VFR clouds will prevail through the night. Patchy
MVFR fog is possible again towards daybreak. Maintained a temporary
reduction to IFR at KCGI and KPAH between 09-12Z. Mainly dry weather
will prevail Monday, but an isolated shower or storm is not entirely
out of the question during the afternoon. Winds will be southerly
around 5 knots during the day and near calm at night.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Looks as though most of the short term will be dominated by a
ridge of high pressure in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere.
Should result in generally a rain free forecast with at or above
normal temps. Afternoon readings will run in the upper half of
the 80s today...then near 90 to the lower 90s Tue/Wed. A weak trof
of low pressure embedded within the ridge may produce an isolated
storm here and there, but looks like most locations will stay
precip free.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Few to scattered VFR clouds will prevail through the night. Patchy
MVFR fog is possible again towards daybreak. Maintained a temporary
reduction to IFR at KCGI and KPAH between 09-12Z. Mainly dry weather
will prevail Monday, but an isolated shower or storm is not entirely
out of the question during the afternoon. Winds will be southerly
around 5 knots during the day and near calm at night.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310543
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1243 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Few to scattered VFR clouds will prevail through the night. Patchy
MVFR fog is possible again towards daybreak. Maintained a temporary
reduction to IFR at KCGI and KPAH between 09-12Z. Mainly dry weather
will prevail Monday, but an isolated shower or storm is not entirely
out of the question during the afternoon. Winds will be southerly
around 5 knots during the day and near calm at night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 302347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds are expected tonight.
Any lingering shower/thunderstorm activity should largely diminish
through mid evening with loss of daytime heating. Patchy MVFR fog is
possible again late tonight. Added a temporary reduction to IFR at
KCGI given guidance values and KPAH with the late afternoon shower
here. Mainly dry weather will prevail on Monday, but an isolated
shower or storm is not entirely out of the question. Winds will be
southerly around 5 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 302347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds are expected tonight.
Any lingering shower/thunderstorm activity should largely diminish
through mid evening with loss of daytime heating. Patchy MVFR fog is
possible again late tonight. Added a temporary reduction to IFR at
KCGI given guidance values and KPAH with the late afternoon shower
here. Mainly dry weather will prevail on Monday, but an isolated
shower or storm is not entirely out of the question. Winds will be
southerly around 5 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds are expected tonight.
Any lingering shower/thunderstorm activity should largely diminish
through mid evening with loss of daytime heating. Patchy MVFR fog is
possible again late tonight. Added a temporary reduction to IFR at
KCGI given guidance values and KPAH with the late afternoon shower
here. Mainly dry weather will prevail on Monday, but an isolated
shower or storm is not entirely out of the question. Winds will be
southerly around 5 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 302347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds are expected tonight.
Any lingering shower/thunderstorm activity should largely diminish
through mid evening with loss of daytime heating. Patchy MVFR fog is
possible again late tonight. Added a temporary reduction to IFR at
KCGI given guidance values and KPAH with the late afternoon shower
here. Mainly dry weather will prevail on Monday, but an isolated
shower or storm is not entirely out of the question. Winds will be
southerly around 5 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301847
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR to low VFR cigs are possible as isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms affect forecast area. For now, devoid of terminal
mention, but vicinity is under consideration. Will monitor.
Otherwise should see scattering clouds VFR tonight and another
brief window of late nite-early am patchy fog possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301847
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR to low VFR cigs are possible as isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms affect forecast area. For now, devoid of terminal
mention, but vicinity is under consideration. Will monitor.
Otherwise should see scattering clouds VFR tonight and another
brief window of late nite-early am patchy fog possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301847
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR to low VFR cigs are possible as isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms affect forecast area. For now, devoid of terminal
mention, but vicinity is under consideration. Will monitor.
Otherwise should see scattering clouds VFR tonight and another
brief window of late nite-early am patchy fog possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301847
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR to low VFR cigs are possible as isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms affect forecast area. For now, devoid of terminal
mention, but vicinity is under consideration. Will monitor.
Otherwise should see scattering clouds VFR tonight and another
brief window of late nite-early am patchy fog possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301827
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
127 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR to low VFR cigs are possible as isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms affect forecast area. For now, devoid of terminal
mention, but vicinity is under consideration. Will monitor.
Otherwise should see scattering clouds VFR tonight and another
brief window of late nite-early am patchy fog possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301827
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
127 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR to low VFR cigs are possible as isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms affect forecast area. For now, devoid of terminal
mention, but vicinity is under consideration. Will monitor.
Otherwise should see scattering clouds VFR tonight and another
brief window of late nite-early am patchy fog possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For aviation section only

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Higher moisture levels around the western periphery of a sfc high
located over the eastern seaboard and an elongated trof of low
pressure aloft have been helping to induce isolated/scattered
showers in a more tropical like atmosphere. Low pressure aloft
will hang around the mid MS and TN valleys today, so will need to
continue with at least some chcy pops. Very weak mid/upper flow
will preclude much of a svr threat. The trof should weaken some
as we head into early week time frame. Though cannot rule out a
stray shower/thunderstorm here and there, believe chances will
generally be less than 20 percent Mon/Tue.

High temps will continue to be highly dependent on the amount of
sunshine received. Cloudier areas will stay in the lower half of
the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 where more sunshine occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. could also be isolated thunderstorms, tho
coverage too sparse for explicit mention at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For aviation section only

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Higher moisture levels around the western periphery of a sfc high
located over the eastern seaboard and an elongated trof of low
pressure aloft have been helping to induce isolated/scattered
showers in a more tropical like atmosphere. Low pressure aloft
will hang around the mid MS and TN valleys today, so will need to
continue with at least some chcy pops. Very weak mid/upper flow
will preclude much of a svr threat. The trof should weaken some
as we head into early week time frame. Though cannot rule out a
stray shower/thunderstorm here and there, believe chances will
generally be less than 20 percent Mon/Tue.

High temps will continue to be highly dependent on the amount of
sunshine received. Cloudier areas will stay in the lower half of
the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 where more sunshine occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. could also be isolated thunderstorms, tho
coverage too sparse for explicit mention at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For aviation section only

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Higher moisture levels around the western periphery of a sfc high
located over the eastern seaboard and an elongated trof of low
pressure aloft have been helping to induce isolated/scattered
showers in a more tropical like atmosphere. Low pressure aloft
will hang around the mid MS and TN valleys today, so will need to
continue with at least some chcy pops. Very weak mid/upper flow
will preclude much of a svr threat. The trof should weaken some
as we head into early week time frame. Though cannot rule out a
stray shower/thunderstorm here and there, believe chances will
generally be less than 20 percent Mon/Tue.

High temps will continue to be highly dependent on the amount of
sunshine received. Cloudier areas will stay in the lower half of
the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 where more sunshine occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. could also be isolated thunderstorms, tho
coverage too sparse for explicit mention at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For aviation section only

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Higher moisture levels around the western periphery of a sfc high
located over the eastern seaboard and an elongated trof of low
pressure aloft have been helping to induce isolated/scattered
showers in a more tropical like atmosphere. Low pressure aloft
will hang around the mid MS and TN valleys today, so will need to
continue with at least some chcy pops. Very weak mid/upper flow
will preclude much of a svr threat. The trof should weaken some
as we head into early week time frame. Though cannot rule out a
stray shower/thunderstorm here and there, believe chances will
generally be less than 20 percent Mon/Tue.

High temps will continue to be highly dependent on the amount of
sunshine received. Cloudier areas will stay in the lower half of
the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 where more sunshine occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. could also be isolated thunderstorms, tho
coverage too sparse for explicit mention at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300851
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Higher moisture levels around the western periphery of a sfc high
located over the eastern seaboard and an elongated trof of low
pressure aloft have been helping to induce isolated/scattered
showers in a more tropical like atmosphere. Low pressure aloft
will hang around the mid MS and TN valleys today, so will need to
continue with at least some chcy pops. Very weak mid/upper flow
will preclude much of a svr threat. The trof should weaken some
as we head into early week time frame. Though cannot rule out a
stray shower/thunderstorm here and there, believe chances will
generally be less than 20 percent Mon/Tue.

High temps will continue to be highly dependent on the amount of
sunshine received. Cloudier areas will stay in the lower half of
the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 where more sunshine occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. Added a VCSH mention to both KCGI and KPAH TAFs
overnight given the increase in light shower activity over southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. Where it does occur, most of the
shower activity should be intermittent and light. Patchy MVFR fog is
also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover should preclude more
widespread coverage. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then
south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300851
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Higher moisture levels around the western periphery of a sfc high
located over the eastern seaboard and an elongated trof of low
pressure aloft have been helping to induce isolated/scattered
showers in a more tropical like atmosphere. Low pressure aloft
will hang around the mid MS and TN valleys today, so will need to
continue with at least some chcy pops. Very weak mid/upper flow
will preclude much of a svr threat. The trof should weaken some
as we head into early week time frame. Though cannot rule out a
stray shower/thunderstorm here and there, believe chances will
generally be less than 20 percent Mon/Tue.

High temps will continue to be highly dependent on the amount of
sunshine received. Cloudier areas will stay in the lower half of
the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 where more sunshine occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. Added a VCSH mention to both KCGI and KPAH TAFs
overnight given the increase in light shower activity over southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. Where it does occur, most of the
shower activity should be intermittent and light. Patchy MVFR fog is
also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover should preclude more
widespread coverage. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then
south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300509
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. Added a VCSH mention to both KCGI and KPAH TAFs
overnight given the increase in light shower activity over southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. Where it does occur, most of the
shower activity should be intermittent and light. Patchy MVFR fog is
also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover should preclude more
widespread coverage. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then
south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300509
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. Added a VCSH mention to both KCGI and KPAH TAFs
overnight given the increase in light shower activity over southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. Where it does occur, most of the
shower activity should be intermittent and light. Patchy MVFR fog is
also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover should preclude more
widespread coverage. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then
south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300509
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. Added a VCSH mention to both KCGI and KPAH TAFs
overnight given the increase in light shower activity over southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. Where it does occur, most of the
shower activity should be intermittent and light. Patchy MVFR fog is
also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover should preclude more
widespread coverage. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then
south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300509
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. Added a VCSH mention to both KCGI and KPAH TAFs
overnight given the increase in light shower activity over southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. Where it does occur, most of the
shower activity should be intermittent and light. Patchy MVFR fog is
also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover should preclude more
widespread coverage. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then
south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292317
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep scattered to broken VFR clouds in place through
much of the forecast period. An isolated shower is even possible,
but chances are way too low to include a mention at this time.
Patchy MVFR fog is also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover
should preclude more widespread coverage. Winds will be light and
variable tonight, then south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292317
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep scattered to broken VFR clouds in place through
much of the forecast period. An isolated shower is even possible,
but chances are way too low to include a mention at this time.
Patchy MVFR fog is also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover
should preclude more widespread coverage. Winds will be light and
variable tonight, then south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292317
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep scattered to broken VFR clouds in place through
much of the forecast period. An isolated shower is even possible,
but chances are way too low to include a mention at this time.
Patchy MVFR fog is also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover
should preclude more widespread coverage. Winds will be light and
variable tonight, then south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292317
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep scattered to broken VFR clouds in place through
much of the forecast period. An isolated shower is even possible,
but chances are way too low to include a mention at this time.
Patchy MVFR fog is also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover
should preclude more widespread coverage. Winds will be light and
variable tonight, then south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291904
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A ribbon of moisture affecting mainly our western CWA may impact
KCGI/KPAH with mid level cigs and an isolated shower is even a
possibility. Otherwise mainly scattered VFR bases are anticipated
through the period with the potential for some MVFR patches of fog
early tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291904
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A ribbon of moisture affecting mainly our western CWA may impact
KCGI/KPAH with mid level cigs and an isolated shower is even a
possibility. Otherwise mainly scattered VFR bases are anticipated
through the period with the potential for some MVFR patches of fog
early tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291904
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A ribbon of moisture affecting mainly our western CWA may impact
KCGI/KPAH with mid level cigs and an isolated shower is even a
possibility. Otherwise mainly scattered VFR bases are anticipated
through the period with the potential for some MVFR patches of fog
early tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291904
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A ribbon of moisture affecting mainly our western CWA may impact
KCGI/KPAH with mid level cigs and an isolated shower is even a
possibility. Otherwise mainly scattered VFR bases are anticipated
through the period with the potential for some MVFR patches of fog
early tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291205
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Will be updating pops for current radar trends. Showers have
increased in coverage over portions of se MO, so will need to
increase pops into the likely category over our far west
counties.

Also updated For aviation section...12Z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

The main forecast challenge in the short term will be how weak
disturbance aloft will affect the region over the course of the
weekend. This disturbance will drift into the region today, then
become nearly stationary overnight and Sunday. At the same time,
sfc high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the se
CONUS.

Moisture will be increasing around the western periphery of this
high, but there just does not seem to be any low level
mechanism/lift to help generate and focus any organized convection
through Monday. Think there may be a few stray
showers/thundershowers here and there, but most locations will
probably stay rainfree through the short term period. Also, do to
very weak flow aloft, any storm that manages to form will probably
not last very long as it will tend to choke off its updraft pretty
quickly.

Max temps will be highly dependent of the amount of sunshine
received at any particular location. Areas that keep lots of cloud
cover this weekend may not make it much above 80 degrees. However,
it will only take an hour or two of good afternoon sun to bump
readings into the upper half of the 80s. Will likely play the
middle of the road most locations to minimize potential error.
With increasing sfc dew points, night time low temps will likely
stay in the upper half of the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A modified Rex Block appears to continue in and near the WFO PAH
forecast area, superimposed within a larger, and stable full
latitude Western U.S. trough, Central/Eastern U.S. Ridge, Eastern
Canada/Greenland Trough/Low.

The mean trough axis that moves through the WFO PAH forecast area
this weekend continues to phase with the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast U.S. weak closed low. The interplay of this low and
attendant deformation zone between Southwest U.S. and Western
Atlantic/Eastern U.S. seaboard Ridge will periodically create small
thermal pockets of instability over the WFO PAH area, mainly over
the Southeast part of the forecast area (West Kentucky). This area
would be along and east of the impressed mid-level low and elevated
warm advection zone. The trajectory of low level winds will be from
the east ad northeast during this time, marginalizing any effective
and sustained moisture advection.

For the extended forecast period this will continue to lead to
minimal and/or non-existent chances for precipitation.

The weak surface pressure/wind gradient will limit any significant
swings in temperature advection, leaving insolation (sunshine) the
dominant diurnal component for impact on temperatures. Anticipate
little variation in temperatures through the extended forecast
period, remaining within 1-4 degrees at or above normal (upper 80s)
for this time of year.

The prolonged lack of widespread surface rainfall should aid in
continued evapotranspiration and may work to gradually lower
vegetation moisture for both agricultural and fire weather sectors.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Moisture will be on the increase from the south/southeast through
the period. Small chances for isolated convection thisafternoon/tonight,
but not high enough for explicit mention. Generally VFR cigs
expected at all sites through the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
Meffert LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291205
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Will be updating pops for current radar trends. Showers have
increased in coverage over portions of se MO, so will need to
increase pops into the likely category over our far west
counties.

Also updated For aviation section...12Z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

The main forecast challenge in the short term will be how weak
disturbance aloft will affect the region over the course of the
weekend. This disturbance will drift into the region today, then
become nearly stationary overnight and Sunday. At the same time,
sfc high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the se
CONUS.

Moisture will be increasing around the western periphery of this
high, but there just does not seem to be any low level
mechanism/lift to help generate and focus any organized convection
through Monday. Think there may be a few stray
showers/thundershowers here and there, but most locations will
probably stay rainfree through the short term period. Also, do to
very weak flow aloft, any storm that manages to form will probably
not last very long as it will tend to choke off its updraft pretty
quickly.

Max temps will be highly dependent of the amount of sunshine
received at any particular location. Areas that keep lots of cloud
cover this weekend may not make it much above 80 degrees. However,
it will only take an hour or two of good afternoon sun to bump
readings into the upper half of the 80s. Will likely play the
middle of the road most locations to minimize potential error.
With increasing sfc dew points, night time low temps will likely
stay in the upper half of the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A modified Rex Block appears to continue in and near the WFO PAH
forecast area, superimposed within a larger, and stable full
latitude Western U.S. trough, Central/Eastern U.S. Ridge, Eastern
Canada/Greenland Trough/Low.

The mean trough axis that moves through the WFO PAH forecast area
this weekend continues to phase with the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast U.S. weak closed low. The interplay of this low and
attendant deformation zone between Southwest U.S. and Western
Atlantic/Eastern U.S. seaboard Ridge will periodically create small
thermal pockets of instability over the WFO PAH area, mainly over
the Southeast part of the forecast area (West Kentucky). This area
would be along and east of the impressed mid-level low and elevated
warm advection zone. The trajectory of low level winds will be from
the east ad northeast during this time, marginalizing any effective
and sustained moisture advection.

For the extended forecast period this will continue to lead to
minimal and/or non-existent chances for precipitation.

The weak surface pressure/wind gradient will limit any significant
swings in temperature advection, leaving insolation (sunshine) the
dominant diurnal component for impact on temperatures. Anticipate
little variation in temperatures through the extended forecast
period, remaining within 1-4 degrees at or above normal (upper 80s)
for this time of year.

The prolonged lack of widespread surface rainfall should aid in
continued evapotranspiration and may work to gradually lower
vegetation moisture for both agricultural and fire weather sectors.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Moisture will be on the increase from the south/southeast through
the period. Small chances for isolated convection thisafternoon/tonight,
but not high enough for explicit mention. Generally VFR cigs
expected at all sites through the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
Meffert LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM





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