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000
FXUS63 KPAH 012045
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET IN THE
ACT ON ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WSWLY ON THURSDAY...A SFC COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME STATIONARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 1.4" /99
PERCENTILE/. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL SET UP AND THE SFC LOW WILL TREK...EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER OR NORTH OF THERE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IN. EVEN WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES SET UP /2" TO 4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER/...IT MAY
FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME
/24-36 HOURS/ THAT FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE MITIGATED. CURRENT 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING IN THE 3-4" RANGE AT THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING AND
REISUUE ESF /HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ PRODUCT TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

ON THE SEVERE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...ESP
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BEING ELEVATED OVER
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY BE IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING
UP DRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGER HAIL STONES.

RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY,
BUT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  GFS TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MONDAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF TAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DOES NOT MOVE IT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND THE CANADIAN IS JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. GFS AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ECMWF BRINGS IN PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL, WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WENT WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY
HIGHER FOR ANY TIME PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012045
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET IN THE
ACT ON ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WSWLY ON THURSDAY...A SFC COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME STATIONARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 1.4" /99
PERCENTILE/. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL SET UP AND THE SFC LOW WILL TREK...EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER OR NORTH OF THERE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IN. EVEN WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES SET UP /2" TO 4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER/...IT MAY
FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME
/24-36 HOURS/ THAT FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE MITIGATED. CURRENT 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING IN THE 3-4" RANGE AT THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING AND
REISUUE ESF /HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ PRODUCT TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

ON THE SEVERE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...ESP
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BEING ELEVATED OVER
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY BE IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING
UP DRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGER HAIL STONES.

RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY,
BUT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  GFS TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MONDAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF TAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DOES NOT MOVE IT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND THE CANADIAN IS JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. GFS AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ECMWF BRINGS IN PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL, WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WENT WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY
HIGHER FOR ANY TIME PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT




000
FXUS63 KPAH 012045
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET IN THE
ACT ON ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WSWLY ON THURSDAY...A SFC COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME STATIONARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 1.4" /99
PERCENTILE/. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL SET UP AND THE SFC LOW WILL TREK...EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER OR NORTH OF THERE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IN. EVEN WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES SET UP /2" TO 4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER/...IT MAY
FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME
/24-36 HOURS/ THAT FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE MITIGATED. CURRENT 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING IN THE 3-4" RANGE AT THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING AND
REISUUE ESF /HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ PRODUCT TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

ON THE SEVERE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...ESP
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BEING ELEVATED OVER
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY BE IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING
UP DRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGER HAIL STONES.

RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY,
BUT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  GFS TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MONDAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF TAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DOES NOT MOVE IT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND THE CANADIAN IS JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. GFS AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ECMWF BRINGS IN PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL, WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WENT WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY
HIGHER FOR ANY TIME PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT




000
FXUS63 KPAH 012045
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET IN THE
ACT ON ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WSWLY ON THURSDAY...A SFC COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME STATIONARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 1.4" /99
PERCENTILE/. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL SET UP AND THE SFC LOW WILL TREK...EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER OR NORTH OF THERE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IN. EVEN WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES SET UP /2" TO 4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER/...IT MAY
FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME
/24-36 HOURS/ THAT FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE MITIGATED. CURRENT 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING IN THE 3-4" RANGE AT THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING AND
REISUUE ESF /HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ PRODUCT TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

ON THE SEVERE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...ESP
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BEING ELEVATED OVER
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY BE IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING
UP DRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGER HAIL STONES.

RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY,
BUT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  GFS TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MONDAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF TAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DOES NOT MOVE IT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND THE CANADIAN IS JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. GFS AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ECMWF BRINGS IN PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL, WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WENT WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY
HIGHER FOR ANY TIME PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012027
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET IN THE
ACT ON ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WSWLY ON THURSDAY...A SFC
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME
STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED
1.4" /99 PERCENTILE/. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH WHERE
EXACTLY THE FRONT WILL SET UP AND THE SFC LOW WILL TREK...EITHER
RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OR NORTH OF THERE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
IL/IN. EVEN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES SET UP /2" TO 4" AND
LOCALLY HIGHER/...IT MAY FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME
/24-36 HOURS/ THAT FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE MITIGATED. CURRENT 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING IN THE 3-4" RANGE AT THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING AND
REISUUE ESF /HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ PRODUCT TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY,
BUT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  GFS TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MONDAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF TAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DOES NOT MOVE IT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND THE CANADIAN IS JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. GFS AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ECMWF BRINGS IN PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL, WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WENT WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY
HIGHER FOR ANY TIME PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT





000
FXUS63 KPAH 012027
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GET IN THE
ACT ON ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WSWLY ON THURSDAY...A SFC
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME
STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED
1.4" /99 PERCENTILE/. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH WHERE
EXACTLY THE FRONT WILL SET UP AND THE SFC LOW WILL TREK...EITHER
RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OR NORTH OF THERE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
IL/IN. EVEN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES SET UP /2" TO 4" AND
LOCALLY HIGHER/...IT MAY FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME
/24-36 HOURS/ THAT FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE MITIGATED. CURRENT 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING IN THE 3-4" RANGE AT THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING AND
REISUUE ESF /HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK/ PRODUCT TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC
LOW. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE US DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY,
BUT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MODELS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  GFS TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MONDAY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z TUESDAY.  THE ECMWF TAKES
A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DOES NOT MOVE IT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND THE CANADIAN IS JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. GFS AND CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ECMWF BRINGS IN PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  OVERALL, WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WENT WITH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY
HIGHER FOR ANY TIME PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MEFFERT




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
CLIMATE...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
CLIMATE...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
CLIMATE...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH VCSH.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO TO MVFR BY AROUND 12Z THU AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 15Z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
CLIMATE...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 011118
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE
HANDLED WITH VCSH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
CLIMATE...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 011118
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT KCGI. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WERE
HANDLED WITH VCSH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
CLIMATE...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010855
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH THE 06Z WEDNESDAY FORECAST ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBITIES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH NEARLY ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CIRRUS DECK
MOVING IN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY OVER KCGI AND KPAH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS/MY
CLIMATE...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 010855
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THINGS WILL GET RATHER BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RAISE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY
DAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY IN
MOST AREAS. LATER TODAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE KPOF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL YESTERDAY...SO THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TUESDAY SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A SHADE COOLER.

DURING TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP QUICKLY AS 850 MB
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POPS WILL REMAIN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RIDE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN BOTH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...FORECAST QPF WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST STORM TOTALS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
TOTALS. THE 00Z WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK /ESF/.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERMODYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
FROST APPEARS LIKELY AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH THE 06Z WEDNESDAY FORECAST ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBITIES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH NEARLY ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CIRRUS DECK
MOVING IN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY OVER KCGI AND KPAH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MARCH WAS A WILD MONTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AT PADUCAH...THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE OF 85 DEGREES FROM THE LOWEST TO HIGHEST TEMP OF THE
MONTH. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 OCCURRED ON MARCH 6...AND THE HIGH OF 79
OCCURRED ON MARCH 31. THE LOW OF MINUS 6 WAS THE COLDEST TEMP ON
RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE SNOWFALL AT PADUCAH WAS 12.1
INCHES...WHICH ALL OCCURRED IN ONE STORM ON MARCH 4 AND 5. THIS
WAS THE THIRD BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. IT ALSO MADE
MARCH THE SECOND SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD AT PADUCAH. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION WAS 8.73 INCHES AT PADUCAH...MAKING THIS THE 6TH
WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH WAS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGED OUT SURPRISINGLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL...ABOUT 2.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS/MY
CLIMATE...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010401
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1101 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED SOUTH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.  WITH THE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO LOWER THAN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOTHING MAJOR JUST YET. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY DOWNWARD...ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH THE 06Z WEDNESDAY FORECAST ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBITIES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH NEARLY ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CIRRUS DECK
MOVING IN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY OVER KCGI AND KPAH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 010154
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
854 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED SOUTH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.  WITH THE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO LOWER THAN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOTHING MAJOR JUST YET. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY DOWNWARD...ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE,
ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES,
AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS DECK NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAF`S SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 010154
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
854 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED SOUTH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.  WITH THE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO LOWER THAN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOTHING MAJOR JUST YET. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY DOWNWARD...ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE,
ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES,
AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS DECK NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAF`S SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312307
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE,
ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES,
AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS DECK NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAF`S SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312307
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE,
ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES,
AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS DECK NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAF`S SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 312307
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE,
ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES,
AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS DECK NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAF`S SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312307
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE,
ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES,
AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS DECK NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAF`S SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311952
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
KPOF-KCEY LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
18Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
18Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310447
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE 06Z TUESDAY UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310447
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE 06Z TUESDAY UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AMENDED THE KPAH AND KOWB TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR THE KCGI AND KEVV TAF SITES. CURRENT SHEAR
RUNNING AROUND BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH A MUCH SHALLOWER
LAYER, BUT DECIDED TO ACCOUNT LARGER AREA INDICATED BY THE KPAH
AND KVWX WIND PROFILES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AMENDED THE KPAH AND KOWB TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR THE KCGI AND KEVV TAF SITES. CURRENT SHEAR
RUNNING AROUND BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH A MUCH SHALLOWER
LAYER, BUT DECIDED TO ACCOUNT LARGER AREA INDICATED BY THE KPAH
AND KVWX WIND PROFILES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AMENDED THE KPAH AND KOWB TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR THE KCGI AND KEVV TAF SITES. CURRENT SHEAR
RUNNING AROUND BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH A MUCH SHALLOWER
LAYER, BUT DECIDED TO ACCOUNT LARGER AREA INDICATED BY THE KPAH
AND KVWX WIND PROFILES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310253
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310253
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH UNLIKE THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA. THIS TROUGHING WILL FAVOR A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...THOUGH A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WARMER SPRING
TEMPS...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK/BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
1000 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF FLUX CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX...SO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT SETTLED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY. THE AIR MASS IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEEKS
WARMER TEMPS ON PLANT GROWTH...ANY FROST COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH UNLIKE THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA. THIS TROUGHING WILL FAVOR A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...THOUGH A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WARMER SPRING
TEMPS...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK/BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
1000 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF FLUX CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX...SO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT SETTLED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY. THE AIR MASS IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEEKS
WARMER TEMPS ON PLANT GROWTH...ANY FROST COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH UNLIKE THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA. THIS TROUGHING WILL FAVOR A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...THOUGH A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WARMER SPRING
TEMPS...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK/BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
1000 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF FLUX CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX...SO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT SETTLED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY. THE AIR MASS IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEEKS
WARMER TEMPS ON PLANT GROWTH...ANY FROST COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300004
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL
DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300004
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL
DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300004
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL
DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH





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